good day. i am chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york city. time something everything in politics, so what does it say about donald trump that he would pick now, tonight, to announce his third presidential campaign at a time when congressional republicans are in a mad scramble for power? his hand picked candidates flamed out and his own inner

circle has been telling him to put the launch on hold. >> this is not the rollout, i am sure, donald trump wanted for his announcement tonight. you know, it's also not the first time he's been totally detached from reality. >> liz cheney went on to assist again that trump is unfit for office, and, in fact, a growing number of other republicans are also saying it's time for the party to find some new blood. they are not just talking about trump, but they are talking about mitch mcconnell and kevin mccarthy, too. the house is meeting behind closed doors right now, and we will have a live report in a few minutes. and then the lady of california breaking down in tears while testifying against harvey weinstein. the slur against her coming from weinstein's lawyer. we'll go there live later in the show. we start with donald trump, whose big plans to announce his

presidential run have so far, at least, been marked by bad optics, bad timing and bad tolling. he tried to sick the irs on his political enemies, and dodged a deposition from the january 6th committee, was called out by his former vice president for endangering his life, and the one candidate that embodied trump's politics more than ever, kari lake, lost in arizona. and more and more republicans are running the other way. >> i think donald trump was an albatross on the electoral process of some of our candidates. >> it's not a winning strategy. >> currently, ron desantis is the leader of the republican party, whether he wants to be or not. >> ron desantis, well, in fact, new polling may show exactly that. in hypothetical match-ups in iowa and new hampshire, the

polls show trump went from being tied or ahead of ron desantis in august, to losing by double digits. in florida and georgia, modest leads for desantis ballooned to 20 points or more, and it's not just republican voters. as we saw, republican lawmakers are also ready to turn the page. >> i think that this election was the funeral for the republican party as we know it. the republican party, as we have known it, is dead. this party is going to have to -- actually, it's going to have to be different or we are not going to be the majority party in the country. >> i have the perfect people to discuss this with me. garrett haake is with me, and tim miller, writer at large and a msnbc political analysts that worked for jeb bush in 2016, and a former senior aide on the biden/harris campaign and worked for hillary clinton's 2016

campaign. we just heard from ron desantis a few minutes ago and he was asked about trump's big announcement and trump going after him. i want you to listen -- oh, we don't have it? we don't -- oh, so basically he tried to kind of thread the needle. he didn't go all in, but he suggested, you know, com on, come at me. if he is going to use kind of that sly, slow response to trump, is he showing something different than what i heard most republicans say, which is if you are going to go after donald trump, you have to go all in? >> well, i saw that so i can speak to it. he did buck the question, and he implied if somebody is criticizing me, it means i am doing a good job. and i think this works for ron desantis for now, because donald trump has really stepped in it

in a way that he has not for long time with his base voters. he has been a bad liar and gotten media coverage for seven years now, and his base loved him for it, and he made a mistake by costing the republicans in the midterms, and picking a fight with ron desantis during the midterms, and you are seeing maga types getting frustrated with him. i think ron desantis is happy to let him continue digging his grave for a while longer, and that will not always work, and ron desantis has never disavowed january 6th. we don't know what ron desantis thinks about election denial. in 2020, ron desantis dabbled in election denial himself and talked about alternate electors, and he's talking about this stuff that costs republicans in the midterms, and he has to get to a place where if he is going

to take on trump, he has to address that. will he disagree on trump with that, or agree with trump on that, and these are challenges that are ahead for desantis. in the meantime, he's happy to let donald trump flail. >> adrian, if he does announce tonight, and that's the expectation but you never know, right, what do you see as the biggest difference in your mind between trump the candidate in 2016, and trump the candidate in 2022? >> there's a couple things, chris. in 2016, even donald trump was surprised at how well he did in the primary, and his chest thumping mannerisms where he bullied other candidates onstage, and the republican voters liked that, and they like divisive and racist language and what not. i think this time around it's different because i think he knows he's losing support among

the very base supporters that got him to become the nominee in 2016. >> do you think he knows that and understands it and believes it? >> i think he -- i don't know how outward, chris, he will be on this, and deep down -- well, maybe not so deep down but he knows that's the case. there's no way he has not seen the club for growth poll. he know he's an avid con asure for the show. and to say joe biden won, he knows his brand is not what it used to be, and he committed to announcing today a week ago or whatever it was, and feels that if he doesn't go out there tonight and say something, his voters will see him as even more

weak. i think he's coming at this, you know, not in the strong position that he was -- certainly not in 2016. he's got a pretty bad track record. every since 2016, he lost seats in 2018, and lost re-election in 2022. maybe we can actually call him a loser, but he's not in the position that he once was. >> garrett, we know we are advisers for some of the reasons that she just stated that wanted to put this off, right, and assuming again, and what we are hearing is going to happen tonight, what is the mood inside trump world as far as you can tell? >> reporter: well, there were some advisers who wanted to see donald trump push this announcement back after the midterms -- or the runoff, rather, in georgia, so he would not be a distraction in the race. i think especially after it became clear, democrats would control the senate anyway, regardless of the outcome of that race, and he has come so

close to announcing, and it's always been the goal and the plan, and the question has been the timeline. all these points about trump being weaker now than in the past, and not withstanding even a weakened trump is still a dominant force in the republican party, and it's what he and his advisers believe, and by getting in now, they squash other elements of the field and potentially keep the field clear from other challengers, and the poll shows desantis beating trump one-on-one in states like new hampshire and iowa, and you are expected to see a large -- or at least a medium-sized primary field in this election, which is exactly the kind of circumstance trump did take advantage of in 2016, and as tim knows better than anybody else talking about this issue, being the anointed candidate is not

foretaou tuesday. >> well, when clinton went up against trump, it was one-on-one. i wonder what you think about the advantage or disadvantage for him of a smaller field, a larger field? you know, basically, having the field to himself for a while. >> yeah, i think chris, it's time will tell. again, i think garrett is right, and in many ways he comes in as the strongest candidate, you know, and he has the highest nam i.d., and desantis is creeping in on him, and he was able to barnstorm in 2016 by calling people names and bullying his way to the top of the ticket, and we were surprised in the clinton campaign that we started winning

these primary states, and not just winning but winning by a large margin. i don't think we are going to see a giant primary like we saw in 2016, but it would not surprise me if we saw people like asa hutchison from arkansas get in. you know, there have been, you know, perhaps liz cheney would get in. how does that match-up look? it's a situation where he's still able to garner 20 to 25% of the vote, and others are also equally competitive. it's too early to make that determination at this time. >> the bottom line, tim, is whoever gets in can win, and you get the nomination and then you have to win. "the new york times" put it this way, it's a painful reality for the cohort of republicans hoping to move on from mr. trump, and first they have to find answers to two questions, how many trump diehards are there, and can they

be persuaded? what is the answer in your mind? >> there's about one-third of the party that are unpersuadable trump die hard, and that leaves two-thirds that are gettable. the middle third, and maybe another third of the party that liked marco rubio, liked normal republicans and would like to go back to old school pretrump republicans, and that middle is very conservative. in order to win them over, and let's call them the trump maybes, and people that like trump but might move forward, and you will have to do all the things that hurt republicans in the mid-term, cruelty, dabbling in conspiracies, and so that damages you for the general election. i think this is the great conundrum somebody like ron desantis is in, and he's in the okay place right now, because it's the idea of desantis versus trump, and people like chris

jansing asking you, what do you think about the latest crazy thing trump said? he has to decide every day whether he will agree or disagree with what trump said, and the base will want him to agree nine times out of ten. that gets you in trouble with the mainstream volters -- voters that moved away in the mid-term. it's doable, but not easy. >> yes, i did cover the jeb campaign, but you never held those questions against me, did you, tim? >> no. if trump voters are holding out for a fight over the mid-term ballots, and kari lake might be willing to give it to them. it has been 14 hours since nbc called the governor's race for katie hobbs, and lake has not conceded. but she tweeted this, arizonans know bs when they see it. what exactly does that mean? is she going to concede?

is she not going to concede? >> reporter: the problem here, chris, is that that's the whole tweet. there's no supporting evidence. there's no further additional facts. there is nothing but that. your guess is as good as mine. what i can do is run through a list of grievances she and members of the gop had up to the call itself, and one being that the election process was too slow, and somehow the republican-dominated adviser board that oversees the elections in this state was somehow slow rolling the vote, and they say that's not true, and they got hit with a bomb of 290,000 mail-in ballots because lake told her supporters not to trust the election process and to bring them in by hand. that's one. and two might be some tabulation machines failed to process some of the ballots, and no excuse for that, obviously, and

election officials say all of those ballots have been counted. third, maybe the secretary of state, katie hobbs, should have recused herself from the election process, full stop, and most people know that's an administrative process and maybe all or many of those things, we don't know, and what it does say is that kari lake is most likely never going to concede this race, and may not accept this election anytime soon. we're probably not going to hear from her until every vote is counted. >> do you think republicans want this fight from kari lake? are they just tired of it, even among trump supporters, and even among people that believe the big lie, or who have talked about the fact that you have to be careful, we don't know these elections aren't fixed? do they want to keep fighting this? >> i am not sure that they do. there's a certain percentage that do. i was punishing myself by watching the charlie kirk live stream last night, and even the

most stop the steelers out there in the conservative media, you can tell they are getting weary. i think they wanted to get this big win in the mid-term to give them the boost to continue fighting this kind of phoney -- definitely phoney, excuse me, fight about the 2020 election. and there's going to be diehards. i was down in maricopa, and you have a reporter from the scene there, and the protests outside were poultry, and there are dead-enders that will go along with this, and it didn't feel like it had the same energy that you saw after trump's loss in 2020. and so i think that this is a problem that the kari lakes of the world will face if they try and fight this. >> steve patterson, thank you so much. come back if you get more

clarity on that question. tim, you will stick around. we also want to talk about the pain and heartache that spilled out in a court today, and brooks killed six and hurting of dozens more. >> intrusive memories, nightmares, anxiety, panic attacks, depression, anger, guilt, shame, these are all things i and others live with daily because darryl brooks drove through our joy and turned it to terror. >> the victim impact statements are part of brook's sentencing. he was found guilty of six counts of intentional homicide, and all carry a mandatory life sentence. classes at the university of virginia are canceled for a second straight day as the community and campus because of

the deaths of three students. the student charged with their murder is in custody but the motive is still unknown. right now, mystery surrounds the deaths of four university of idaho students. the local coroner says the deaths are being treated as homicides, and the mayor describes it as a crime of passion, and authorities have not said how they died. in a statement, police say they do not believe there's an ongoing community risk but also have not said they have a suspect. house republicans are behind closed doors picking their next leader, and it's being describeds a feud or far-right revolt, and the message to kevin mccarthy is you don't have the votes. what does that look like on the hill? and then where is putin?

it's the g20 minus one as world leaders gather with russia's leader nowhere in sight. you are watching "chris jansing reports" only on msnbc. connection your business deserves. book your appointment today. and switch to the network america relies on. verizon. when you're ready to go, but static says “whoa.”

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speaker, but with best case scenario being a slim majority for the republicans, his angry caucus is threatening to oust him before he gets the gavel. we are seeing more voices joining donald trump that wants mcconnell replaced in the senate. tim miller is back with us again. ali, even if kevin mccarthy wins the vote today, it's not clear if he will be speaker in january. what is going on behind closed doors? >> reporter: think of this as a trial run or a way to read the tea leaves and how strong a lock on the position, kevin mccarthy has. he is the person who was at one point predicting he would have a dozens of seats majority in the house. now if they win the majority, it looks like it will be a handful of seats and he's going to be playing a balancing act that is tighter most likely than the one speaker nancy pelosi has been

playing for the last two years. this is the first test, though, for mccarthy, and over the course of the last week since the election, we have seen members of the conservative house freedom caucus, some of them locked in for mccarthy's support, people like marjorie taylor greene and jim jordan, and others saying there is going to be a challenger to mccarthy and he does not have the 218 votes to be speaker. we know it's going to be congressman andy biggs of arizona, and nobody is saying he's the candidate, but he's the proof point the freedom caucus is putting forward to show mccarthy is not the consensus pick and there has to be deal making happening in order for mccarthy to get to that magic numbers. for today's purposes, 218 doesn't matter, and it's how many votes does mccarthy get, because if he comes under 200 votes in the behind-closed-door

ballot, he's in bigger trouble than they admit to us, and this is really a test of just how strong mccarthy's strength is over the caucus now. what really matters is january. >> tim, a republican leadership in the senate is doubt, and ted cruz blasted mcconnell. >> it would be insane if we re-elect the same leadership. mitch would rather be leader than have a republican majority. if there's a republican who can win, who is not going to support mitch, the truth of the matter is, he would rather the democrat win. >> what is your take on this? are mcconnell and mccarthy at serious risk, or is this a case of a few republicans letting off steam? >> you can't beat somebody with nobody, and that's the best

thing kevin and mitch have going for them right now, and andy biggs is the challenger for mccarthy, and he spoke at the mall on january 6th, and so the challenge to mccarthy is more in line with trump and the election denialers, and hard to see biggs getting to 218. and in the senate, rick scott says he is going to challenge mitch mcconnell, and he just face-planted in the midterms, and there's not a good option in either caucus. if one emerged, a potential consensus option emerged, i think both men would be in trouble and if they sneak through, both will be on very short leashes. and to what ali was talking about, the way the speaker votes, he has to get all 218 votes, not just a majority of his caucus, and no democrats are going to vote for kevin mccarthy

for speaker. he has to walk a very, very, very narrow tightrope, whereas mcconnell has to win half of his caucus, which seems more achievable despite there's grievances -- i am not going to agree which grievances they have with mitch mcconnell. >> i think the other thing is, tim, the bottom line is the democrats -- i mean, the republicans have to decide do they want to go ahead and attack right or try to be more centrist. you had such a fascinating conversation with steve bannon. if you listen to him, there was no doubt about it. let me play just a little clip of that. >> the way to the house of representatives next year when we have a real j 6 committee, and -- >> you don't really believe this? >> 100%. >> you think it was stolen? >> 100%.

>> does at least a tight majority, a very tight majority make that less likely? how do you read the party and what you heard from steve bannon? >> i would be interesting in ali's take on this, and a tight majority makes it more likely they go along with the crazy stuff, and mccarthy doesn't have room to give. let's say republicans have 220 members, and three of them could prevent him from becoming speaker, and if what they want for concessions is investigating fake voter fraud or investigating the fbi or the impeachment of biden, or whatever it is, he might have to give into them, and they had the worst mid-term imaginable. >> i have 30 seconds and i could get in trouble for doing it. i want to hear your take. >> reporter: tim is right, and

now that you have a place where they can acted like joe manchin has for the last two years, and tim is right, some of them are the investigations they could go forward with, and making it easy to oust a speaker, and how they elect the people to be heads of committees, and all those are on the table as negotiating chips, and we are going to be watching those concessions because that's exactly the wheeling and dealing with to happen here. the people in this caucus, of all stripes and range have a say here and they can all be kingmakers. >> great conversation. thank you both. meanwhile, two republican fire brands are waiting to hear if they will be heading back to congress or back home. palin sz is in second place, and if no candidate reaches 50%, palin would head to a runoff against the democrat.

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we've got breaking news just in from the associated press that the georgia abortion ban that essentially bans abortion starting at six weeks of pregnancy has been overturned, ruling tuesday, a judge, that it violates the u.s. constitution and u.s. supreme court precedent when it was enacted. it prohibited most abortions when a heartbeat could be detected and that's usually around six weeks, usually before most women even know they are pregnant. again, a judge overturned georgia's abortion ban starting around six weeks into pregnancy. we will follow that for you. more breaking news as well, moments ago governor brian kemp

finished testifying about the erection probe in his state of georgia, and he walked in about 9:00 and walked out about 5 1/2 hours later. it could be an opportunity for payback who has been a favorite target of donald trump. >> we won georgia by a lot, and we have a republican governor that is worse than a democrat. he's terrible. >> brian kemp is a turn coat and a coward and complete disaster. lyin' brian of georgia is terrible. >> that's politics. but today under oath with legal implications looming, kemp, who had his say, and it matters because he's the highest profile georgia official to testify before the special grand jury that could conclude with criminal charges against trump. and i want to bring in blayne alexander, and this is a big deal.

he just finished testifying. what do we know? >> reporter: this was the culmination of the lengthy back and forth between the governor's legal team and district attorney. he came in around 9:00, and left around noon. he did leave the building, we confirmed, and we are talking about several hours of testimony behind closed doors and will remain largely a secret, because, of course, it's a grand jury. what we know is what the d.a. wanted to learn from the testimony, and all of it goes back to the conversations with former president trump and his campaign having to do with the election results here in georgia in the 2020 election. he wants to know if he was pressured, and we know what happened on the other side. we know about the public split that the governor had with the former president. what the d.a. wants to find out, of course, is the conversations. what i think is important, chris, is this puts us into the

larger context of where this investigation stands now. we know the district attorney is aggressive in this investigation. we know she said she hopes to wrap it up by the end of the year, and now that we have seen essentially all of the high profile georgia officials testify, we know she's seeking testimony from newt gingrich, and lindsey graham and mark meadows and other, and will she issue the subpoena of the former president himself, and she's not ruling out that option, chris. >> thank you for that. graphic and emotional testify testimony in an l.a. courtroom with the first lady of california taking the stand against harvey weinstein. she broke down crying while telling jurors about the night she says weinstein assaulted her in a hotel suite. the defense attorney said it's

all a lie, and she would be, quote, another one that wanted to get ahead. look, the defense called the accuser a bimbo, and it's a striking example of the old school play victim, attack the victim, or the alleged victim. as the me too movement have the jurors less likely to buy that argument? >> i don't think there's any question the me too movement was a large part of the avalanche of complaints against harvey weinstein took place, and she has a little extra credibility because of being the first lady of california, and the prosecution can overstep its

confidence in that, and the defense has to do what it can to call into question her credibility so the jurors say, well, you know, she may be the first lady, but i am not convinced and therefore i am not going to find the defendant guilty on that charge. a very tough road for the defense here just because of the volume of evidence against harvey weinstein. >> yeah, the numbers of accuser, and as you say, a high profile person, the first lady of california. you also have a famous hollywood producer. when you are go into a trial like this, carol, how does that fame play a role? is that built into the strategy, the idea that a lot of people on the jury will know who they are and even they said they could be objective, have preconceived objections about them. >> in this case, we have heard the name harvey weinstein in an

unflattering light in the last few years, and the me too movement has done a lot to expose the power play that takes place in hollywood. for the defense to argue, as it has, that this is just sort of par for the course casting couch type of behavior, and i am not sure that plays that well today in today's atmosphere, but the defense doesn't have a whole lot to work with. they are going for that acquittal, and once there's an acquittal, double jeopardy attaches and they can't be heard on that again. and david depape faces attempted kidnapping of a u.s. official, and the charges in all carry a sentence of 50 years in prison. the 42-year-old already pleaded not guilty to state charges. we will have updates from the

courtroom as we get them. a spokesperson for spoker pelosi who has been inundated with questions about her future, saying she has not thought about it and won't until all the ballots are counted. if you were to assess your confidence that this is going to pass on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being absolute confidence, where are you? >> eight or nine. >> a bipartisan group of senators on capitol hill are working to get more republican votes after submitting an updated amendment and putting

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right now at most powerful leaders in the world minus one are meeting at the g20 summit in bally, or as president zelenskyy said, the g19. and putin responded to zelenskyy's speech by upping the violence, and prompting a top ukrainian official to say, does anybody seriously think the kremlin really wants peace? it wants obedience. i want to bring in a allied commander at nato, admiral

james. let's start with the obvious. where is putin? there was a need for him to be in the russian federation, but why do you think he's not there? >> hard to say with certainly, but here's three theories of the case and it's probably a little bit of each of them. he doesn't want to let president xi, his best friend before the war, and he doesn't want to look him in the eye and he told him he would conquer kyiv in a matter of days, and now we are months later and he's being kicked out of ukraine. and who wants to walk into a room full of people that are just mad at you, and if you are leaning toward putin a little bit or your staunch opponent as most of the g19 are, and all of them despise the fact that he's

helping to hurt the global economy and bring on a recession. and he needs to be in the russian federation, and the forces are starting to circle for opposition, and he may not want to be out of the country right now. >> and then concerns over inflation, food and energy security, and some republicans, we talked about this before here in the u.s., are questioning the ongoing investment in a war that feels far away when we have our own economic concerns, and is there an off-ramp? where do you see this going now? >> well, first, i think this, kris, is money well spent, for the united states of america and our european allies. it's the ukrainians who are fighting and dying. we're putting tools in their hands, and, yes, there are costs involved in it but compared to iraq or afghanistan, these are

much lower costs and it's some treasure and no blood and the ukrainians are fighting the fight for all of us, for freedom and democracy and liberty. to your second question, yeah, i think ultimately there will be a diplomatic off-ramp here, and probably not until we get through the winter. putin wants to turn over a card he thinks may help him, european response to a cold winter. personally i don't see the europeans collapsing in the least, but putin will wanted to see that. there will be refreshing and refitting, and at the end of the day by the time we get through the winter, both the russians and the ukrainians are going to have a hard time simply resuming high levels of combat. they burn through too many people, too much equipment. i think that's the moment when you could see a move toward the negotiating table. let's hope so. >> admiral, always a pleasure to have you on the program. thank you. with the high stakes georgia

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herschel walker's campaign has a big message for republicans. stop the deceptive fund raising because despite of tilkt e-mails trying to raise money, he's not seeing all that cash. i want the bring in mark caputo who's been covering this for us. where was the money going and is the walker camp seeing changes after calling this out? >> it was going to the other candidates and committees saying to help in the runoff and they're keeping 90 cents of every dollars. now those various republicans, donald trump among them, j.d. vance in ohio, maybe ted bud in north carolina, they've agreed to go to a 50-50 split. all that money is not going to walker. >> you have a new survey about the growing tensions between rick scott and mitch mcconnell

with the leader's support of walker. once democrats took the senate, did it cause republicans to lose steam over the stakes in georgia? >> democrats smelled blood and they've committed at least $4 million in tv ad spending and right now, the senatorial committee headed by rick scott has pledged about 700,000 and they want the senate leadership fund headed up by mcconnell allies, to kick in more money and match the political committee and so far, that's not happening. at the heart, there's a long running feud between scott and mcconnell. and an interest in scott possibly running for leader one day. what man faesed in the meantime is these two top level republicans refute g and walker looking for extra money as he faces an uphill climb as he

looks to take the senate seat back from rafael warnock. >> thank you so much. speaking of cash, if you're still dreaming of how you'd spend a billion dollars if only you'd won the power ball, how about this. a mere 37.1 billion bucks was the winning bid to make your home more like a museum. hung just a few blocks from where i'm sitting. it was in the museum of modern art. if not a painting, how about shoes? steve jobs, late founder of apple, was widely known for his sleek black turtle neck, but also part of that iconic uniform, birkenstocks, worn during many pivotal moments in apple's history, acknowledging they were well worn, the obvious question was do they smell? the auctioneers answer, they do smell. of success. the auction price was $218,000.

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it's good to be with you. i'm chris jansing in for katy tur. republicans are still battered and bruised from this miserable