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i'm katy tur. brittney griner is home. she is in texas, being evaluated at an army medical center. the state department is about to brief on her condition. we will go there with any updates as they come. we begin with the giant news that broke early this morning. kyrsten sinema has declared herself an independent, putting the democrats in a super weird place. remember it was only a couple of days ago that we were talking about the clear edge that the dems had with the warnock win in georgia. today, we're wondering is it so clear anymore? we're also feeling like maybe we should take back our wednesday

analysis saying that joe manchin was no longer one of the most powerful people in washington. we're going to explain the changeover on that. but for context, sinema's changeover should not come as a total shock. she's been a thorn in the side of democrats on some major legislation, pushing for compromises, and in some cases, leaning more toward gop priority. she already rarely attended weekly democratic caucus meetings, she didn't show up on the campaign trail for fellow arizona democrats at all this cycle, and she's been pretty outspoken about her distaste for partisan politics. something she repeated today. >> i think it's important for me to stand proud as an independent and say that i will not be a part of what i consider to be an escalating tit for tat. the angry rhetoric, the desire to get one over on the other party, the desire to punish each other. everyone knows i don't function like that. and i think that goods people who have different opinions can

get along and work together. >> so what will all of this mean for how the senate does business? and what could it mean for the future of the two-party system. after all, it's no secret that a lot of americans feel like washington is too consumed by partisanship to get anything done. and then because we are edging towards 2024, we need to have a conversation about what sinema's switch might do to not just the senate seats in arizona, but the entire democratic ticket in 2024. joining me now is senior capitol hill correspondent garrett haake. first, lay it out for us. how does the functionality of the democratic party, of the senate change, or not change, with this announcement? >> reporter: well, democratic leaders are hoping it doesn't change at all. that's why you saw statements from joe biden and chuck schumer really hugging kyrsten sinema, pointing out that she's been an important partner on bills like the infrastructure bill, and from schumer saying that sinema would keep her committee assignments which are given to you by the party with which you caucused.

now, democrats have some experience with this. they're already two independent senator, bernie sanders and angus king who caucused with the democrats, so whenever we talk about the 51-seat democratic majority, we're really kind of lumping those independents in with them. so if sinema operates like them, no problem. but even if she operates in a way that makes the senate nor like a 50-49-1 division, democrats, thanks to raphael warnock, hanging on to his seat, and john fetterman winning his, still have that one-seat edge. so even with this announcement, likely democrats will have a little bit of an easier time on the committee level, and still probably just as challenging of a time on the floor, wrangling kyrsten sinema's vote. >> it also gives manchin a lot of power again. talk to me about that dynamic. >> well, look, in the narrowly divided senate, any one single senator can decide they want to be the one to hold things up, or to try to stick their, you know, thumb in the air and say wait, wait, wait, we're waiting on me

on this one vote. joe manchin did that better than anyone else in the last congress and kyrsten sinema did that, too, with a narrowly divided senator. and it could be any other senator that decides to operate that way. those two have been the most comfortable using their part in the democratic majority. that won't change for either one of them. remember, manchin is also up for re-election in 2024, as is sinema, if she decides to run again. if either of them do. so they're going to be kind of watching very closely what votes they're asked to take and how they're going to cast them. >> garrett, i would say it's friday and happy weekend but now that you're a parent, you know that your weekend is just another full-time job. >> that's right. >> happy friday nonetheless. garrett haake, thank you very much. joining me now is punchbowl news co-founder john bress ne han and the nbc news affiliate bram resnick, and washington bureau chief susan page. welcome. >> brahm, you know arizona best so what is your read on this?

>> my read on this is that kyrsten sinema has always been a party of one. and this idea of her going independent has been bandied about here for years, going as far back as 2016. i remember clearly when she made her victory speech in 2018 winning the senate sheet, she said her hero was john mccain, who was, as you all know fiercely independent, and it took some of us by surprise, because we didn't know they had any kind of relationship, political relationship or any kind of relationship, and suddenly john mccain was her hero. so i think she planted a stake in the ground there. and this is just part of the evolution of kyrsten sinema. she is never, never really been part of the democratic group here in arizona, since i've known her, a-years plus, she has always been a party of one. >> arizona has a lot of independents. how is, how might arizonans react to a person who is elected as a democrat, moving over to

the independent side, bram? >> well, we won't know electorally for a while, but i can tell you the reaction now, and this isn't new, you have a lot of democrats, base democrats, who have been upset with sinema, because of the votes she's taken, and her standing up for the filibuster, and this has led to total abandonment by the base. it is very difficult how she gets a lot of base democrats in the future. as for independents, they're bound to like it, but again, keep in mind, independents don't vote nearly in the same numbers as republicans or democrats in general elections. despite their rather large registration numbers. so you know, you still have to win over your party if you're going to win and sinema pioneered that strategy in 2018 winning over democrats, a big slice of independents, and republicans. mark kelly has now doubled that, done that twice, and sinema would not be able to follow that strategy in '24, if she chooses

to run again. >> let me pick on you and just kind of scratch our heads and wonder why might she have done this then? >> that's a good question. i think it was on your show maybe, a year or so ago, when i brought up the possibility that she had higher ambitions beyond the senate. i'll tell you she was very upset when i brought that up, but this is something that has been viewed and i'm sure your other guests can explain just this kind of staring contest right now, between schumer/biden, ruben and kyrsten sinema and what will happen in 2024, can the senate not have a senate candidate in 2024 in arizona? there is a lot of working out that has to be done there, and somehow meeting the interests of all involved, or satisfying the interests of all involved. >> this is why we have you on, because you're prescient and we'll see how that pans out in the next couple of years. >> bres, i want to go back to the senate politics here. garrett laid out the functionality. she will continue i guess in

some way to caucus unofficially with the democratic party, she is going to stay in her committee assignments but because she needs leader schumer to give her those committee assignments, does he have a little bit more leverage here than we might think? >> listen, she is, she is still effectively caucusing with democrats, she will still chair two sub committees, she doesn't go to caucus meetings anyway, and in a lot of ways, this doesn't really change much. she's still culturally, she's much more progressive than the republicans that, you know, that she often affiliates with, and even manchin. i mean she voted for ketanji brown jackson, she's voted with the judicial nominee and in some ways really good for them, but on business issues, on economic issues, tax issues, regulatory, regulation issue, regulatory issues, she's not one of them. i do want to say one thing.

i just talked to giago and he is overseas and he hasn't made a decision but i do want to read a quote in a minute here. >> take your time. >> i'm actively putting a team together to meet in case i make a decision. i'm a good marine so i plan for the fight even if there isn't going to be one at the end of the day. so he is clearly looking at it. and he also doesn't buy the argument that if he runs, he challenges her, and that would open the door to a republican, that they would neutralize each other and that opens the door it a republican. he says he doesn't buy that argument. he thinks if he goes run, he can win, so he feels very strongly, i mean he feels very strongly that, you know, she has left the party, the party hasn't left her, and i think that's a really, you know, he's looking at it, he hasn't made a decision yet, but he's real serious about it. >> all right, susan, i want to ask a slightly off the discourse

question, which is a lot of americans have a lot of distaste for washington, and the way business is done there and the tit for tat, as kyrsten sinema described why she didn't want to be a part of party politics, would you argue it is not such a bad thing to have more independents in the senate? >> absolutely, you know, if you read her op-ed in the arizona republic, she talked about americans' dissatisfaction with both parties. that is certainly millions of americans who do not feel at home in either party. they choose the lesser of two evils when they vote so she is striking a cord there. now, i think you would also have to say that she is making a cold political calculation here, because i think it was unlikely she was going to be able to win a democratic primary in two years, in arizona, so if she wants to win re-election, this is probably the only course she had, and we'll see how that plays out. but yes, i think it is true that americans would like less

partisanship, more independence, and so i think there are plenty who will say this is a good thing, let's see more people who are willing to step outside the party structure in american politics. >> any way that this potentially threatens the two-party system down the line? not this one individual move, but the idea that maybe it's better to have more unaffiliated folks in washington? >> the two party system has been pretty durable. they've made it, people who have been in those two parties have made it difficult for independents to get much headway. that said, the levels of dissatisfaction with american politics have never been higher. this is the distrust of ins trusion, including the two political parties has never been higher, and so it is not inconceivable that we will see changes in american politics that make it more possible to have divergent voice, more independent for a third party candidate prevailing in some races. that is entirely possible given the kind of anxiety and

dissatisfaction we see with the american electorate. >> brahm, what about kari lake or doug doocy, what does this do to prospects for running for a senate seat maybe and i know a lot of folks wanted doug doocy to run i believe last time, right? >> that's right. i think doug doocy judged that he, kind of like kyrsten sinema right now, could not win his own party's primary. and that was pretty spot on, especially when you look at what happened. let's leave kari lake out of the discussion for the time being. she has until monday to challenge her defeat in the race for governor. and let's leave that aside. doug doocy is a more interesting question. he is widely believed, i have not confirmed this, but widely believed to take a job running the u.s. chamber of commerce in washington, d.c. which isn't a bad perch from which to run any kind of number of campaigns including perhaps even a campaign for the u.s. senate from arizona. so it may open the door for him. i'm not so sure doug doocy wants

to be a u.s. senator though, and be one of 100. he is used to being an executive, and i just don't think that judge is cut out for him but he is certainly somebody to keep an eye on, because right now, republicans smell blood, see blood in the water, and they're starting to recruit. and i just want to add, somebody did mention, talking about the local reaction, the democratic party statement this morning basically said, and don't let the door hit you on the way out. that tells you where kyrsten sinema stands with the arizona democratic party and many democrats. >> i'll put up on the screen the 2024 senate map and awful democrats who are up for re-election. it looks, you know, daunting, for the democrats, and this potentially made it even more daunting. if you will, forgive me, brahm, i want to switch gears and get my daily update on kevin mccarthy. what's going on with him? >> you're asking me? >> bres. >> oh, this one. >> yes. >> mccarthy is not there yet.

he's got real problems. he's got at least four hard no votes. and more floating out there. there was a letter sent yesterday from seven republicans who were raising all sorts of objections and one of them is a real stricky procedural question from mccarthy about who is going to allow individual members to even try and out of the speaker, you know, they were the ones who helped get rid of john boehner in 2015, and conservative republicans held it over paul ryan the whole time he was in office. democrats got rid of it. nancy pelosi got rid of it. there are conservatives who want to bring it back. you don't know if kevin mccarthy gets there. i think it's 50-50 at best. i think there is kind of a shifting group. there are four hard core members who are out there formally saying they won't vote for him. and then there's others that are a shifting group. i think he has a real math problem. he only has 222 seats and you

know, my thing is that they have known kevin mccarthy for a long time now, seven years he has been running for speaker, and if they don't want him at this point, if they're still iffy on him, how is it going to get any better for him? so i think he has a real problem. you know, he can get there, but i think it's an uphill battle to be honest with you. >> that's why i read punchbowl every morning and look forward to reading it every morning, in my inbox because there is always a kevin mccarthy update and how the math is not in his favor. it is interesting to see all of the infighting play out. and the mechanics of the leadership within the republican party, just a few weeks from now. bres, and brahm, and susan, thank you very much for joining me today. appreciate it. happy friday. and still ahead, it is getting ugly. what the d.o.j. wants a federal judge to do to the office of donald trump. and brittney griner is back home. what officials are saying about her condition. plus, what vladimir putin is

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right about now, behind closed doors, the federal judge is hearing an argument from the d.o.j. to hold donald trump's office in contempt. joining me now is nbc news justice and intelligence correspondent ken dilanian and the "washington post" security reporter who broke the story devlin barrett. since you broke the story, please, give us the d.o.j. argument for this. >> the justice department argument is that trump's lawyers just have not been trustworthy on the question of whether they have looked everywhere for classified documents. and this has been building for months. and culminated, that has culminated, as we reported earlier this week, two items marked classified found in a storage unit in florida, and the justice department is plainly fed up. >> they're fed up.

and they're asking a judge to hold them in contempt. can you explain a little bit more about the process of the trump team, and trying to unearth these documents, and whether the justice department, and special counsel now, has been able to go to one single person to get a straight answer. >> right, so this goes back to may, when the justice department served trump's side with the subpoena saying you must return all documents, all things marked classified. and obviously, over the course of the summer, what happened was the trump side turned over some classified documents, but a search conducted by the fbi in august found more than 100 additional classified documents. so that is the sort of the basic core of the distrust here, is that the trump side said they had turned over everything, and they had not. but since then, the problem has become sort of a technical legal issue, which is that subpoena

was addressed to the custodian of the records of president trump's office. no one on trump's legal team is willing to take on that title, given all the problems that have unfolded from it. and the justice department is saying if you cannot appoint someone to be custodian of these records and swear to us that you have turned over everything, we are going to seek contempt. >> usually a custodian is a pretty standard thing, right? and i'm wondering what this signals about the d.o.j. >> what is interesting to me is that by seeking this contempt position against the office of the former president, it suggests that they cannot connect donald trump personally to these documents. they can't try to hold him personally responsible, because he's got layers in between him. and that's been the story of his whole life, right? and it also suggests, as it is pretty clear, they do not have probable cause to pursue search warrants at these other, bedminster, and trump tower, and that they suggest that there

might be classified documents there, but they don't have enough evidence to go do the kind of search they did at mar-a-lago, so it suggests problems with the d.o.j.'s case here, and particularly connecting it to trump, and a lot of the experts have been saying they expect donald trump to be indicted in this case, perhaps this suggests that we have a ways to go before that happens. >> this is under seal, still, so we have no idea the full detail of the argument here, and we also don't know, when it comes to the other documents that were found, what sort of classification level they have, is that right, ken? >> that's right. there's been nothing said about what level of classification was on these documents. but as a matter of law, it doesn't really matter. if they're classified, they're not supposed to be in the storage locker and people have gone to jail for less than that. and in this case, it is just one of hundreds of documents that donald trump, or people around donald trump caused to be placed in these insecure facilities and now the government is trying to

get them back. >> devlin, what are you watching out for next? >> well, i think obviously, how the judge approaches this contempt motion is important. but i put the contempt motion in the context of this fight over, is there any more classified material out there in the wild? and i basically think of the contempt motion as a kind of hammer and threat against the tlufrm side to be more forth coming. i just don't know that any lawyer who works for trump right now is going to be willing to sign a sworn attestation that there is no more classified out there because i think you can understand from a lawyer's point of view that may be a hard thing to swear. >> yes, because you just don't know when you're, when it appears your client is not being completely forthcoming. thank you very much. joining me is former federal prosecutor and msnbc legal analyst paul butler. let me start with what ken was saying, that it indicates to him that this means the d.o.j. can't tie this directly to donald trump. what do you make of that?

>> so i'm not sure i would take it that far. the d.o.j. is in a tough position. trump has access to lots of properties where he could stash something that he doesn't want prosecutors to find. prosecutors can't get a search warrant unless they have probable cause to think that what they're looking for is in a very specific place. so they can't go on a fishing expedition. maybe it is in a storage lock ner new jersey, and ma it is in a closet at trump power, maybe is not probable cause. prosecutors have to rely on the good faith of trump's team to comply with the lawful subpoena, and that's not working. and hence this aggressive move of asking that trump's team be held in contempt. but katy, i think that that actually might work. >> it's one step away from trump, an area that we've often seen that you know, the trump organization just got convicted of tax fraud, one step away from donald trump himself, and he always seems to be one step away

from the responsibility, and the criminal prosecution. we've seen it over and over again. is there anything to suggest to you that he might be able to say i didn't know what was coming back from washington, this was all packed up and put in a storage unit. i had nothing to do with it. >> that's totally what he's going to say. if i move my office, i got to pack up my stuff myself, so trump is probably telling d.o.j., when he left the white house, he had people do that for him. they are the ones who know where everything is. but if the judge hold's trump's team in contempt, trump himself would ultimately be responsible for paying the fine, which could be tens of thousands of dollars a day, until this matter is resolved. when trump refused to sit for a deposition in the new york attorney general civil case, letitia james got a judge to slap him with a contempt citation and then trump sat for

that deposition quickly. money seems to incentivize the former president in ways that civic or the rule of law don't. >> and if you don't have a lawyer sign on to be a custodian of the documents because i think you can rightly assume they don't believe their clients fully knows where the documents are or the client is not telling them the truth, how does that go back to the client? if your lawyer is unwilling to swear to something, does that lead you back to the client there it may very well lead back to trump. you are seeing the escalating pressure to get the document, versus a very polite request from the national archives and then the grand jury subpoena, and then the search warrant, and now, this bold move of asking the judge to hold trump's team in contempt. if that doesn't work, i think the next item on the table would be obstruction of justice

charges for somebody, including the former president. >> it does kind of go to show that if you don't want to comply with the government, that there is a whole lot that you can get away with, and that's what i feel like i'm saying, pushback, i don't know, delay, delay, delay, i will ask for this and get it and get it taken away, it feels like you can get away with a lot, and maybe you're high enough up. >> for some of the time. hopefully not all of the time. we're not anywhere near the end of this movie, so we'll see what happens, but i think that jack smith has been appropriately aggressive in trying to bring the former president to justice. >> i wonder what would happen if i would say no, no, no, or i don't know, to the d.o.j. if they were coming after me for something. -- paul butler, thank you very much. and brittney griner is finally home. what is next for the eight time

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wnba star brittney griner is back on american soil after ten months in russian custody and now vladimir putin is saying more prisoner swaps are possible. joining me now from san antonio is, marissa, and matt who is here who covered the kremlin extensively. have we gotten an update on her condition? we have been watching the state department briefly but they haven't told us much. >> in the last half hour, the state department briefing, they did get ask how she is doing and the latest interactions between them and brittney griner and they said the next step is really focused on brittney griner and her family's well-being and making sure what is prioritized so that means a couple of different things, and you can see her getting off the plane there, she seems to have an extra pep in her step as she is walking on u.s. soil for the first time in roughly ten months, since this whole or deal really started earlier this year. and so physically, john kirby

says she seemed to be in good health and in good spirits. and she was taken here for routine medical evaluation, and this is a routine thing that they do for people in these types of situations, and we saw the same thing happen with trevor reed earlier this year, he had health issues that needed addressing and like we said, we haven't seen that with brittney griner but they're also looking at the psychological impact. we know she went through a severe russian penal colony and this has taken an impact, a toll, and they want to make sure she is given the resources and what that looks like, the state department says that is a conversation that they will continue to have with her, to make sure whatever she needs, whether it's counseling, or whatever that kind of support looks like, that they have that available to her. but obviously, what today looks like, we're probably going to be hearing about a lot of very emotional reunions, namely with her family and with her wife, happening behind closed doors. >> that's understand able. i would be running off that plane if i could to see my husband. in reference to the people that

we've seen go through the same situation, or similar situations, obviously everyone is different, do we have a rough idea for how long people usually stay at this facility to go through this treatment, this assessment? >> i think it really depends on the situation. and trevor reed's case, he did have some health issues that needed addressing, and so in his case, that was something that was a physical ailment that needed treating, and so it might be possible that we might see brittney griner leave here much earlier and much quicker and swifter than what we saw with reed, simply because she may not have any health issues she may simply just be focused on getting home to her family, being in her own bed for the first time in a very long time, so it might be as simple once she gets the clear from the health team, from the psychological team, and once she says that she is given all of the resources that she needs, she could be out of here very quickly. >> russia is obviously celebrating just as much as we

are for the return of viktor bout, they did a whole video compilation of all of the times that officials have brought up his name over the years, to show the country that he wasn't forgotten and that they finally have him back. vladimir putin is also saying that more prisoner swaps are possible. i don't speak russian. i know you do. walk me through what you read from that, what you took from that. >> thank you, katy. i would say overall, putin's remarks can be interpreted positively. you know, he left the door very clearly open for future discussions with paul whelan, for example. he spoke positively about the process that has been established to facilitate these specific discussions, you know, he told us a little bit, at least from russia's perspective what that looks like, we're seeing the russian intelligence service, the fsb, communicating directly with the cia and stacked with other information that we've heard from the russian side about how these

negotiations are taking place. and he said that, you know, we're not ruling anything out. i would say kind of my biggest question now is who are the russians interested in getting back at this point. and we've gone down the list, viktor bout, trevor reed and brittney griner, and i'm a little worried for paul whelan, working their way down the list and it is not clear what russia might be going after now. and what was also interesting in putin's comments today he kind of got a holistic appraisal of how he sees u.s./russia relations and we know it is not in a good place with the war in ukraine and the worst it has been since the cold war and not a lot of dialogue going on between the two sides and they seem to be mostly content at this point, contained at this point to the link of security services and that is essentially something i was told last week by the russian foreign minister sergei lavrov during a press conference that i took part in, and he told me that he hasn't even spoken to his counterpart tony blinken since before the war, and when that conversation actually happen, the main focus

point were the prisoner swaps. and so across the board, there is not a lot of talking going on but it is positive when they're talking directly, about getting these americans back. >> i know paul whelan's family is very frustrated, and paul is frustrated and wondering why he is still there and his bags are packed and he's ready. how has he spoken about in russia? what are they saying about him? and what might that mean of the prospect of ever getting him out before his sentence ends? >> sure, well, it is interesting, throughout his detention in russia, there of course has been significantly more interest from the american side, from the american media than therein there has been in russia. he certainly is talked about, but he was charged formally in a russian court with espionage. so that is the narrative that kind of hangs over his detention in russia. and so that is a very difficult thing for paul whelan, and i think that the russians are approaching his case the way that they are because of the nature of the charges that they

charged him with, that he is currently imprisoned under. so there is not a lot of sympathy for him. but he doesn't actually come up all that often. i think brittney griner actually receives, at least, you know, a recent case, in being very high profile herself, received a lot more attention in russia, than paul whelan has recently. >> she was a pretty popular basketball player in russia, right? the public knew who she was. >> yes, and basketball is not the biggest sport in russia but she was certainly a figure that was known about, and was present in the public. >> got it. thank you very much. and more on all of this next. what it would take to free paul whelan, and ian bremer of the eurasia group joins me to discuss with more insight and what idaho investigators have zeroed in on that they say has a possible connection to the murders of four college students. ts find your beat your moment of calm find your potential then own it support your immune system

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this hour when asked about the condition of freed prisoner brittney griner and while we await any word directly from brittney griner herself, the man who went home to russia in exchange for her is wasting no time speaking out for his government and slamming the united states. viktor bout said quote the west believes they did not finish us off in 1990 when the soviet union began to disintegrate and says the u.s. thinks it can still divide russia again. joining me now is president and founder of the eurasia group ian bremmer, the author of "the power of crisis." i lost the prompter and i lost the title i'm here. >> i appreciate it. we'll put it back on the scene in a second. i will start with where i just left off with -- there's your book. i'm just going off the rails.

>> long lost brother, katy. let me ask you about, going down the list of prisoner swaps, they were going down and looking to see who russia might take in exchange for paul whelan. do you have an idea? >> no, no, i don't. but of course they were trying to get paul whelan out very strongly over the last months and they failed. i think it's why it took so long to get brittney griner out. i think the deal for brittney griner and viktor bout was set up pretty much six months ago and the russians don't care. but look, if you ask me, do i think the deal on its face was a great deal for the americans, the answer is no. bout matters more from a national security perspective, the americans care a lot more about the lives of our citizens. but we have to take a step back maybe, russia is losing on every front right now. and i don't just mean in terms of territory, on the ground in ukraine, i also mean the

expansion of nato, i mean the sanctions destroying their economy, the freezing of the central bank assets, i mean the amount of punishment that the americans and our allies have leveled against putin after he decided to wage this illegal war has been staggering. and in the context of that, the fact that they have viktor bout to deal some weapons, at a time that the russians don't have enough weapons for their own soldiers, i think that's water under the bridge. i think the important thing is what is happening to russia. >> let me say this. viktor bout served 15 years, or was in prison, and held in custody for 15 years, which is more than half of his official sentence. the sentence didn't start until 2012. because vapz so needed a win, so needed some propaganda for his own sign, for the things that you mentioned and were not going his way, i wonder if we could have held out for more, and had

a little more leverage in this. is that a fair question? >> it's fair. it's fair. i just don't think in the grand scheme of things it matters very much. i mean holding out for more would have meant more weeks and months that brittney griner is suffering in jail. illegally. she's a hostage of the russian government. and if you ask me what i would rather have her out, if i would rather have her out, i would rather have her out. i think what we're doing to the russians right now is at a systemic level and there is no way out for putin. as much as i care about brittney griner, i probably on balance care more about 44 million ukrainians, just for a second, let's remember that, and that's what is going on this year, it's not two american hostages, it's that russia has decided to wage war and commit tens of thousands of war crimes, and now, they are trying to destroy the electricity grid of ukraine as winter approaches, to kill tens

of thousands or hundreds of thousands more, and they don't care. so we have to put brittney griner, i mean we know we're americans, i know we care more about americans, but we do, as americans, care about people outside of our country, too, and that's why we're providing the tens of billions of dollars of support. that's why we're providing the military systems and the intelligence and the training, that's why this war is continuing, and that ukrainian president zelenskyy is still there. so i mean, you know, we have to spend most of our time talking about that. >> let me ask you, first to nbc news, russia is providing an unprecedented level of military support to iran in exchange for drones. what do you think of that? >> i've heard from senior iranian officials that a big strategic diplomatic dealing is going to be announced between iran and russia in the near term. i tweeted about that, i think two days ago.

and it is very disturbing. it's very good news that after the americans told the chinese, don't you dare provide military support or we're going to sanction you like crazy, the chinese, who are much more capable of helping the russians, have not provided military support. but the iranians are fully sanctioned by the united states, and our allies so there is not much else we can do to the iranians, frankly, short of direct military strikes. we've already sort of cut off so much of the iranian economy. and so they don't see much down side in them providing the drones and what looks to be an impending ballistic missile deal to help the russians who have been showering so many of them on the ukrainian people, to be able to continue that through 2023 and beyond. and then in return, the iranians are going to get some russian money but they're also going to get a lot of military training and a lot of support and a lot of spare parts for their planes and the rest. these are so rogue states on the

global station and they're likely to work more closely together going forward. >> on the subject of iran, what do you make of the protests there? do you think this is a turning point? >> it is extraordinary bravery on the part of the iranian people, particularly the young women. the iranian government just decided to execute the first protester yesterday in a sham trial. i suspect there will be more. from the iranian perspective, they are using, they are not repressing as heavily as they might, except in the kurdish region where the military has basically been striking buildings and murdering people in broad daylight, but the rest of the country, think that they can do a lot more repression going forward, and unfortunately for the iranian people, i suspect that's what we're going to see. >> thank you very much for joining us. put your book out one more time. "the power of crisis, how three threats and our response will change the world," good to have you. hope to see you again. coming up next, what idaho officials investigating the murders of four college students

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of idaho students stabbed to death last month. investigators are asking the public to help identify the owner of a white hyundai elantra that was found at the off-campus home of the victim. joining us from moscow, idaho is nbc's steve patterson. why do they want to find this car? >> reporter: you know, katy, like so much in this investigation, police are playing this close to the vest. we don't have much in the way of critical details about why they want to find the car, and we know a lot of that is tactical, that this is the way the strategic way, that they're doing their detective work. here is what we do know. police say that car is important to this investigation, that it was near the scene at the time of the murders, and that they absolutely believe whoever the occupant of that car is or are, has critical information that is pertinent to the case. that's it. beyond that, we can just tell that this must be a key part of their investigation process here. they're very focused on it. they're asking the public for help. very heavily. and they've received a lot of

tips about it. they're hoping that this leads to a break in this case. >> and so strange not to have any more details. the families got to be pretty frustrated right now. >> incredible level of frustration. imagine you're a parent and sending your kid to a school where a killer is still on the loose, where people are still walking in pairs, and past 4:00 p.m., and there's this level of tension in this community. it is permeating, it is unrelenting, and it will not stop until this case is solved. >> thank you very much. that is going to do it for me today. hallie jackson picks up our coverage next. ackson picks up o coverage next. ♪♪ voltaren. the joy of movement. ♪♪ (scrooge) bah humbug! my signal is totally ghosting me! (cecily) you need a better network. voltaren. the joy of movement. 'tis the season to switch to verizon. they'll give you the new iphone 14 pro. (scrooge) amazing phone! (vo) this holiday season verizon gives you the new iphone 14 pro.

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maybe in context as we come on the -- in context as we come on the air, a judge is hearing arguments behind closed doors with the mar-a-lago documents and team justice looking at holding team trump in conte