assets have been seized, she undid a pink untitled to $100 a year. >> that was it? >> that was it. >> does she worry still? perhaps. but he has declined all interview requests, including ours. >> i know that when i tried to contact her, she did not want to speak because she was still frightened. >> as for the delhi, it went to his brother, but last we checked, they had yet to perfect the recipe for the creamiest chocolate cake around, that cake to die for, that killer cake. >> that is all for this edition of dateline, i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. thank you for watching this sunday, leaving the party. arizona senator kyrsten sinema says she is leaving the democratic party and registering

as an independent >> i am willing to work with anyone to get things done. >> her decision complicates democrats' plans for the future and their hopes of holding control in 2024. >> my stand today is about joining the many americans who don't believe that any political party fits them perfectly. te >> i'll talk to democratic senator jon tester of montana who understands the challenges of being a democrat in a red state. plus, freed from russia. ei >> welcome home, brittney. >> basketball star brittney griner is free from russia in a prisoner exchange for a convicted arms dealer known as b the merchant of death.nt >> it was a dangerous concession of vladimir putin and will set a dangerous precedent going forward. rw >> is the u.s. putting more lives at risk with this deal? i'll talk to former u.s. attorney preet bharara who put the russian arms dealer viktor bout behind bars. and liability. after his hand-picked candidate lost the georgia run-off donaldp trump is increasingly becoming a liability for his party and himself. >> he's, if you will, the kiss

of death for somebody who wants to win a general election. >> reporter: trump's company was found guilty of criminal tax fraud.un more classified documents were discovered. and now the special counsel is moving quickly in its investigation. could a criminal referral from the january 6th committee be the next shoe? joining me for insight and analysis are nbc news chief white house correspondent kristen welker, nbc news senior capitol hill correspondent reus garrett haake, and republican strategist sara fagen. welcome to sunday. it's "meet the press." >> announcer: from nbc news in washington, the longest running show in television history. this is "meet the press" with chuck todd. a good sunday morning. well, the democratic party's celebration of raphael warnock's georgia victory lasted less than three days. on friday, arizona senator kyrsten sinema poured cold water on the celebration. she announced she is leaving the party to become an independent.

it is a move that still leaves republicans short of any sort of working majority or even a 50/50 designation.jo this does complicate the senate and presidential math in 2024. sinema's move in some ways an exclamation point on a midterm cycle that was less of -- was more of a repudiation of the republican party. in arizona democrats trail republicans and independents in overall party registration. th t nationally voters are starting to opt out of either of the two major parties. according to gallup more americans call themselves independents than republicans or democrats. that's been true now for over a decade. in fact, in 19 of the 31 states that track registration by party, one of the two major parties is in third place behind either an independent or

unaffiliated designation. in the senate sinema has rhetorically leaned into an independent streak but on governing she has voted with democrats 93% of the time. now, she did block attempts to change senate rules on the filibuster to pass voting rights, legislation, or to codify abortion protection. she voted against raising the minimum wage with a visible thumbs down on the senate floor. for those actions, sinema was censured by the arizona democratic party earlier this

year. her democratic colleagues and leadership in washington were quite quiet when progressives unloaded on her earlier this year. >> two democrats voted against us. that was a terrible, terrible vote. and i think what the arizona democratic party did was exactly right. >> i don't believe she has really given a compelling case as to why she should be renominated as the democratic nominee for the united states senate in arizona. she has proven herself an obstacle to the right to vote in the united states. she is not an ally on civil rights. she is not doing what voters in arizona sent her to do. >> so from her perspective it was probably an open question

whether progressive democrats even wanted her in the party. already in arizona sinema's h potential 2024 democratic opponents are lining up to pile on the criticism. congressman rueben gallego said sinema is once again putting her own interests ahead of getting things done for arizonans and s congressman greg stanton tweeted her party switch is about on political preservation and he signaled his own interest in running. what are national democrats going to do? the white house helped clear the -- will the white house help clear the field and help sinema? the white house press secretary called sinema a key partner following her decision. she provided a lot of the bipartisan victories that biden touts. but the president himself has at times singled out sinema

negatively.r fopr >> it sounds like you're putting the blame squarely on two u.s. senators for your inability to close that deal, senator sinema and senator manchin. >> look, i need 50 votes in the senate. i have 48. two more democratic senators in the united states senate. i promise you -- [ cheering ] -- i promise you we're going to codify roe. >> all right. so how are other swing and red states responding? joining me now is senator jon tester the only democrat elected to statewide office in montana. in 2020 donald trump carried oor montana by more than 16 points. in 2012 the last election when tester was on the ballot with the presidential campaign tester was able to run ahead of barack obama by seven percentage points. senator jon tester welcome back to "meet the press." >> good to be with you, chuck. thank you. o a >> all right. so i guess on a scale of 1 to 10 the complete shock, or this is just another day at the office? where do you put the sinema changing her party affiliation to independent? >> look, i was surprised she made the change but functionally i don't think it is a thing. i think we'll continue doing the same thing we were doing whether she is independent or part of the democratic caucus because she is going to continue to caucus with the democrats. so we'll still have the committee structures we've had before as far as having one more democrat. functionally, i don't think it changes a thing. and that's a good thing. so we look forward to working -- i look forward to working with her as i have in the past to try

to get good things done for the country >> i want to talk about that relationship. arizona democrats do not -- are not happy with her at all.mo some of the critiques, the state party chair says she answers to corporations and billionaires not arizonans. the executive director of a local organization called it another unfortunate selfish act. you have progressive political consultant faced in phoenix saying, everything she has done has been in service of kyrsten sinema., is that your experience working with her? >> no. look, i had a good experience working with kyrsten on a number of different projects especially the bipartisan infrastructure package we put together with five democrats and five republicans of which i was one of the democrats and she was, too. we worked hard together. we argued and we fought and we came up with a pretty darned good bill.

i think that is the process, chuck, you know that, your enemy one day is your friend tomorrow and vice versa and it is about keeping relationships in washington, d.c. if you're going to get things done. i think kyrsten sinema knows that and i think whether she is a democrat or a republican that really doesn't matter. the label doesn't matter. what matters is you got to have somebody in washington, d.c. that wants to get things done and move things forward. we certainly have enough obstructionists in washington, d.c. so, look. i think she has a pretty good track record of getting things done. has she been perfect on everything from my perspective? no.

but i probably haven't been perfect from her perspective either. i think you just work together. you do things. and move the country forward. i think that's what we did last congress. >> let me ask you this. you and her basically share thes same position on the filibuster. yet she was vilified for it. you have not. why do you think that is? >> well, i mean, i was for going back to the days of mr. smith goes to washington filibuster where people talked and could hold the floor for weeks on end if they want but in the end it h was a simple majority vote after the people got done with a talking filibuster. i think she had a different view. >> okay. >> but i can't remember exactly what that was on that. >> right. but more similar -- you are nott for just getting rid of the filibuster completely the way many colleagues are. >> no. that is absolutely correct.

the filibuster does serve an important purpose and is one of the things that makes the senate different than the house and thank god for that. >> but you -- do you think there are even 48 votes for your position in the senate? >> you know, it's hard to say. i think as with any piece of legislation or any policy or any rules or form, it is about explaining to folks, and by the way i think this has to be done in a bipartisan way and explained to folks about how this is going to make the senate work better. i have always believed that if you're going to obstruct you have to put some skin in the game. i don't think right now folks who obstruct put any skin in the an athe lwayo ob they can object and can walk away and can go home and some of them have. and i think it's more important that they work at their obstruction. and look, if i want to obstruct a bill i'm more than willing to do that. i'm willing to go down and hold the floor and get people with the same opinion to hold the floor with me. that puts leadership in a heck of a bind when it comes to the filibuster. >> right. >> and so i think it does still keep minority rights, which is what the filibuster is about. >> you actually vote less with joe biden than kyrsten sinema does. you're comfortable being a democrat in montana. why is that?i tom >> look, i'm also a farmer. i can tell you that we would not have the farm today if it wasn't

for the democratic politics of fdr. my grandfather and grandmother talked to us about that.mo my folks talked to me about that.al i will tell you that i am forever grateful for that, because i'm blessed to be a farmer.m i love agriculture. i wouldn't be one without the democrats. >> well, i say that because, you know, i'm sure you're going to get a lot of questions in ic s montana. hey, why don't you leave the party? and you think that is going to be a good enough answer for that middle of the road voter that you need to win? >> i think what we need to focus on is what we've accomplished whether for veterans, infrastructure, bringing jobs back to this country. the list is long. i've been able to do a lot of good things working with other people in a bipartisan way in the united states senate. working for small businesses and working families and family farm agriculture. that's what i'm going to be talking about as a record of accomplishment if i choose to run. and if we're able to do that and get that message out effectively i will win as in the past.

if we're not effective in that, then of course it is going to be a different outcome. if i decide to run in this en thing, and it'll be a discussion i have with my family over the holidays because it is a big ha undertaking, i feel good about my chances. people are going to come after me. they have in the past. nonetheless, that's politics. and we'll get through it. and hopefully be successful come november of 2024. >> before i move off this topic do you want to see senator sinema re-elected? >> look, that's a choice for the arizona voters, number one. number two, i certainly have no bones to pick with kyrsten sinema. i think she has served this country well. and, look, it will be a choice. elections are about choices. the arizona people are going to have a choice now whether a democrat, independent, or republican that represents them in the united states senate along with senator kelly. and they'll make that call based on the same kind of information they will in any state in the

union. >> do you think democratic leadership ought to give her some deference the way they give angus king deference? >> i mean, sure. they ought to try to treat everybody equally for sure. i don't know that angus king gets deference. >> well, they don't fund a democratic candidate out there. >> he does a really good job. he >> they don't fund an official democrat in maine. >> yeah, okay. i mean, that may be the case. i'm not aware of that. but the truth is that angus does a great job and deserves to be re-elected in maine. and one of my favorite people in the senate as a matter of fact. i really like this guy. he's done a great job and brings a great tool set to the senate. and i think that's what it's based on more than anything else.arutgs it's how you performed. are you a team player?ou are you working together? are you working to move the country forward? and they'll make that call. i can't say. that is really a call for the next chairman of the democratic senatorial campaign committee >> i want to talk to you about the midterms overall. i've had you on here to talk about democrats and rural voters. >> yes >> i got to show you this number. >> yes. >> when you were last up for re-election democrats didn't get clobbered in rural america. in 2018 they got 42% of the rksr vote. republicans got 56%. that is a competitive landscape and why you won re-election. in 2022 a year democrats are claiming was a pretty good year the split in rural america, senator, 63% to 34%.

democrats got clobbered in rural america and lucked out that turnout in rural america wasn't that great. what has to change here? >> we got to focus our message more on the things we're doing for rural america. a prime example, i have a couple deals that deal with big packers and meat consolidation and how the market i believe is totally manipulated and if we can get those bills through it will allow folks who are cow calf fo operators to make a living. if we are able to do that this congress, democrats will have done that, and hopefully there will be republicans and i'm sure there will be as a matter of fact because we have chuck b grassley onboard and others to get some of these bills across the line. we need to talk about it. we don't talk about near enough. the infrastructure package is a prime example. it's going to help rural america big time when it comes to broadband and electrical distribution and roads and

bridges. we didn't talk about it. we didn't talk about it from a rural perspective. it has to be a concentrated effort, and we are very bad at message, and we need to work at that and get that message out to rural america so rural america knows who is fighting for them. and i think it's across the board. and if we're able to do that and do that effectively, chuck, you'll see those numbers change >> i want to get to two issues. one that is pretty pressing in the lame duck. the issue of the debt ceiling. senate majority leader chuck schumer. >> yes. >> said he wants to raise it

with a bipartisan majority. i get that desire. but if you guys punt the debt ceiling issue this lame duck and republicans use it to hold the economy hostage, hold biden hostage, isn't the blame on democrats right now for not dealing with this problem even though it may be a one-party vote? >> no. this is an insane situation we're in. we are simply paying the bills like you would your credit card bill or house payment you make to buy your house. for republicans or anybody to hold up the debt ceiling vote is political malpractice. it will raise interest rates across the board. we saw it happen the last time this was just talked about. you cannot expect to compete with a place like china looking

to replace us as an economic power in the world if we're going to have these silly fights over debt ceiling. they're silly fights. if this is going to be the case we ought to just change it and vote for the bill, the debt ceiling vote goes right with it so the bill goes up or down. >> would you just eliminate it at this point? >> well, i think truthfully we can do just what i said or we could let the president do it. >> right. >> with an override of say a two-thirds margin from the congress. but the truth is, to have this fight and hold the country hostage over something that truly could be very damaging to the economy of this country, is nothing short of ridiculous. it is why people don't like democrats. they don't like republicans. they don't like congress. this is a silly fight to be having. >> speaking of perhaps not liking congress when they find out how many members of congresl iontheyon took crypto money, let me ask you this. you used some colorful language to describe crypto. you're not alone here. but should the government be regulating it or banning it? i >> look, one or the other. it has not been able to pass the smell test for me. i haven't been able to find anybody who can explain what's there other than synthetics which means nothing. >> air? >> and, yeah. exactly. and the problem, if we regulate it, and i pointed this out to some of the regulators a week or two ago, if we regulate it we may give it the ability that

people will think it's real. truth be known my personal thought and i'm not a regulator and i'm not a financial person that does regulation but i see no reason why this stuff should exist. i really don't >> i get that. finally, on the prisoner exchange viktor bout for brittney griner. what is your level of concern that this was a successful tactic for putin? >> well, look. i think any time we can get an r american out of jail that's imprisoned improperly we all ought to celebrate that. people can always say we should have got more or shouldn't have done the deal at all. in the end i can tell you that for a fact the state department continues to negotiate for the release of other americans that are out there but i think in

brittney griner's case we ought to say good for brittney griner. i am happy for her, happy for her family, happy for america. we need to continue to work to get the other folks out, too..py >> all right.oo senator jon tester, democrat from montana, always great to get your perspective on things. i'm curious.s. what do you think governor john dutton is doing these days?tt >> he's out causing problems i'm telling you. >> there you go. we'll find out more tonight. >> sounds good. >> all right. of course referring to yellowstone's fictional governor. senator jon tester, thank you. when we come back more on senator sinema's party switch. what is the real impact? the panel is next. wtothe panel.

welcome back, panelists here, nbc news chief white house kristen welker, senior correspondent garrett haake, republican strategist sara fagen. garrett, i think we will start here with your beat. senator sinema. what is her reputation on

capitol hill? we know democrats don't like her in arizona. she clearly did not do her local politics. but senators do seem to like her. is that the sense you get? >> she is kind of an enigma. she tends to stick to herself. she is not as social with fellow democrats. the person i see her spend the most time talking to on the senate floor is usually john thune, somebody who has good relationships across the aisle that she can be difficult to deal with. we saw this even in the infrastructure negotiations and other bills in which she was intimately involved. there was, in some ways the

democratic position, the republican position, and then trying to figure out what kyrsten sinema's position is and unlike say joe manchin who also can rub his colleagues the wrong way there was never any question of what joe manchin wanted in these kinds of things. he was very outspoken about it. sinema is simply much harder to read. i think we're seeing that play out even now. >> let me play a video from her, which really looks like the first biospot for her re-election. >> registering as an independent and showing to work with the title independent is a reflection of who i've always been and a reflection of who arizona is. nothing is going to change for me. i don't think anything is going to change for arizona. >> has anything changed with president biden's relationship with kyrsten sinema? >> well, the white house would like to say no. i think it is notable you played that video. it's almost like she is daring democrats and the white house to run a progressive against her. white house officials say we

haven't even had a conversation about that. the president has a good working relationship with senator sinema. they are trying to downplay this and point to her voting record. she voted with president biden the vast majority of the time. i've really pressed them, what gives you that confidence nothing is going to change from a policy perspective? they don't really have a good answer for that, chuck. they can't say if she has given them a personal -- negotiating was very tough. it becomes about 2024. obviously arizona an increasing number of independents. this could be a real problem in 2024 for democrats if she splits this into a three way race. >> rank and file democrats were having a good time passing around this tape that goes back to 2010. it is a younger kyrsten sinema. take a listen. >> well, the senate we no longer have 60 votes.

some would argue we never had 60 because one of those was joseph lieberman. but that's whatever. so none of this pressure, this false pressure to get to 60. so what that means is that the democrats can stop cowtowing to joe lieberman. >> from 30,000 feet it always seems to me sinema gets more grief for the same positions that maybe manchin or tester has. i keep wondering is it because they thought she was at heart a progressive and this is sort of, she is a traitor and they will point to her green party days for that? >> first let me start with arizona has become such a critical battleground state. let's also notice the president was out there this week talking about the chips act which is helping bring tech and manufacturing jobs back to arizona. tens of thousands of jobs to arizona. i think we'd rather talk about that right now than kyrsten sinema. voters as you know chuck will forgive a lot of things but hypocrisy as that is shown right there is tough for them to get over. now tester said, functioning from a functioning standpoint, nothing changes. as you pointed out she votes with democrats 93% of the time. i don't see this fundamentally changing any of what chuck

schumer does in the senate any different than before she switched. >> let's talk 2024. arizona, there is a good pattern you can see here which is the party that is divided loses races. okay? democrats, sinema, kelly, arguably hobbes didn't have a serious challenger and they won. the republicans with the tougher primary challenge, and we've seen it in reverse. what's going to happen? >> well, look. i think this move was the politically shrewd move on her part and really the only move she had if she wanted to get through a democratic primary in my view. the democratic party attacking her as being a show for corporations when she votes with her president over 90% of the time. it tells you everything you need to know about today's democratic party. in terms of what happens in 2024 it probably depends more on the republican primary and who is the nominee for the republicans.

>> kari lake is sitting there. >> sure. if kari lake is sitting there it looks much easier for kyrsten sinema. if it is doug doocy, all of a sudden democrats are doing everything they can to keep that progressive out of the race. >> to peel back the onion on the idea she votes with biden 93% of the time that is both useful and misleading in some ways. areas in which she broke from him the most are those she prevented from happening. she made very clear she wouldn't vote for the filibuster rules or some of the tax provisions. those never came to the floor in large part because she opposed them. but she did support the president on i believe every single one of his judicial nominations. that is basically all the u.s. senate is going to be doing for the next two years. so if she keeps voting yes on biden judges she probably stays

in the white house good graces. >> that is such a great point and part of why negotiating with her is so frustrating as you point out. a lot of times they don't know her position until the very end. taking a step back i think this moment is also just a reflection of how partisan the country has become. if you look at the polls, a majority of voters are frankly just fed up with both parties. >> the republican party is the most -- is a very unpopular political party. the democrats are the second most unpopular party. >> exactly. the question is, is there going to be more momentum for the center and for people to come back to the center? this is really i think highlighting that. >> cornell, she wants to fashion herself as a mccain republican. >> yes. >> one of the things we've noticed here is the big difference is not being a thorn in the side of her own party. it is jon mccain went out and explained why he was being a thorn in the side. she never explains herself so becomes a two dimensional person easier to caricature. john mccain was harder. >> just winning by five points is pretty darned good in a state that is traditionally red and running on frankly a lot of things she already voted for. but it is retail politics 101. if i had one really sort of major criticism aside from what the left is doing coming at her

for, retail politics, chuck. you got to do your retail politics. >> it is pretty clear she didn't do the little stuff at home. you can see it. manchin, tester. they don't allow that stuff to fester. she did. almost enjoyed the fester. >> look how tester, the interview with tester, explaining why he is a democrat and has taken the stands. people don't want you to be with them a hundred percent of the time but they want to understand you >> i think it is a good point. however, i would say any break with the orthodoxy of the democratic party, which is increasingly progressive, means you are cut out. and, you know, she is really an example of that. she challenged her party and as a result she was going to be primaried. >> is this going to get contagious if she is successful? how many other senators secretly wish they could go outside the party structure?

>> i don't think so. i think given how partisan the country has become, to kristen's point the party is going to do you more favors than not especially in a 50/50 senate. i think to the degree over the next two years whether we have a functionally 51/49 senate or 50/49/1 will show us. the idea of being a team player. if she operates like bernie sanders or angus king, it is a wash. if she really tries to hold herself apart in the way that evan mcmullen for example held himself out if he had won in utah, we're looking at a very different picture. >> that is why i thought jon tester's answer was so interesting when you asked him, are you comfortable being a democrat in montana? clearly, he is. he talked about fdr and the importance of continuing that. and so i think that it is a very risky strategy, chuck. it is not clear a lot of people will be following her. >> especially when she acts like a hermit and does that. that is the issue. >> no there won't be this

movement because you know how much a senate race costs? no there won't be independent movement. you need the party structure. >> extraordinarily important. party switching of course not unheard of in the united states senate. according to the body's historian 21 senators changed parties while serving in the upper chamber since 1890. wayne morris is my favorite example, democrat, independent, and republican at one point in the state of oregon but the last time a democratic senator did this was in 2006 connecticut's joe lieberman. he was hurt by his support for the iraq war inside the democratic party and lost a primary. he chose to run as an independent in the general election and won. lieberman explained his decision on this program right after that election. >> i'm going to continue to do what i've always done and even more so, which is to work across party lines with my colleagues to get things done for my state and country. to me, that is my singular mission. i'll work with anybody i agree with on a matter. i'm not going to look at party labels but what can we get done for our country and my state. >> up next, he's already admitted he took the highly classified documents to his florida home. so will donald trump ultimately be punished for that crime? former u.s. preet bharara is here to discuss. test test. welcome back. florida home.

so will donald trump ultimately be punished f

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welcome back. american basketball player and two-time gold medalist brittney griner is back in the united states. she touched down in texas on friday for medical evaluation, reunited with her wife cherelle after 294 days in russian captivity, including at a penal colony. new video released by russian state media appears to show griner working in one of russia's penal colonies where she spent the past month. griner was exchanged for a russian arms dealer viktor bout nick named the merchant of death. he had served nearly 11 years of a 25-year sentence in the united states on charges including conspiring to kill americans. many republicans are criticizing the swap. >> we should have never released viktor bout. it was a dangerous concession to vladimir putin. and it will set a dangerous precedent going forward.

>> in his role as u.s. attorney for the southern district of new york -- >> accused arms dealer viktor bout begins to face american justice. the so-called merchant of death is now a federal inmate. no one should ever think he can plot to kill americans with impunity. >> and preet bharara joins me now. welcome to "meet the press." >> good to be here. >> let me start with what you can tell us about viktor bout. how dangerous a man is he? >> dangerous man. i don't know who that young guy was a moment ago. i don't recognize that. >> promising future in television. you look good. >> look. everyone is happy. if you're an american or not an american that brittney griner, who is i think unfairly and illegitimately detained in russia is back home. we are happy for her and her family.

at the same time you might imagine that not as just a general prosecutor but the prosecutor who oversaw the prosecution and conviction of viktor bout, has a view of how dangerous a person he was. as you said, he was someone convicted at trial by unanimous jury of conspiracy to kill americans. he was convicted of conspiracy to provide material support to terrorists. he is on tape with confidential informants planning to sell hundreds of surface-to-air missiles to the farc, also sell 30,000 ak-47s to the farc for the stated purpose of shooting down american helicopters in colombia. he was a dangerous man then. i don't know how dangerous he is now. >> right. >> presumably, i have a lot of respect and trust in the biden administration, is his ability to engage in trafficking of armaments at a time when russia is at war with ukraine, is it diminished? i don't know the answers. but people in good faith can in

good faith ask questions and be concerned even when we are very, very happy brittney griner is back in the u.s. >> what does this do? does this hurt morale in the justice department? i mean, i know officially justice was against this decision but would always have been. this is standard policy to be against that. but does it sap morale? >> i don't know. >> okay. >> look, prosecutors generally when they've held someone accountable, particularly a dangerous person like viktor bout are not excited about letting them out of prison early. he served 15 years. another about seven to go. they are certainly not excited as a general principle. when it is an asymetric trade, someone very dangerous being traded for someone who hadn't

really done anything wrong. but i think reasonable minds of the justice department understand they have a particular role to play and particular advocacy to engage in. it is not ultimately their decisionment i'm sure merrick garland and others understand there are other considerations, diplomatic considerations, and, of course, you want to bring americans home. i don't know that it sapped morale because they're professionals as i would have been in the situation as well. >> but you're certainly not happy. >> it is not not happy. there is some concern not just about the particular trade but as some people in good faith, not talking about the politicians necessarily, who wonder and worry that if you engage in this kind of trade, deeply asymetrical trade, does it put other americans in harm's way in the future? >> we don't negotiate with terrorist organizations unless we do. we don't negotiate for this stuff unless we do. it does feel like we don't have a policy on this anymore >> i can't speak to that. i just think that it is, you know, at a time when it is very, very political and you played some politicians' statements there are people who don't like

joe biden's politics, there are people who don't like brittney griner's politics. i would hope there would be room for reasonable debate on both sides of the aisle about what the policy should be. >> i want to move to the various trump investigations. there was a lot of movement this week. a federal judge decided not to hold trump in contempt over the classified documents. the question is, he's already admitted he took it. what do you think justice is waiting for? >> the justice department? look. i think they are to coin a phrase loaded for bear. they appointed special counsel, jack smith. there are a number of very seasoned prosecutors, two of whom i worked with very closely at the southern district of new york when i was u.s. attorney and before that who i think were brought on for purposes of figuring out if there is a triable, chargeable case. i don't think they'd have left their former positions both in government and private practice unless there was a serious possibility that the justice department was on a path to charge. >> meaning you can win it, you have all the evidence? you can have all the evidence but not win a trial, right? >> those are -- intertwined. you generally do not proceed unless you have a great likelihood of success. the prerequisite is that you believe the person is guilty of the crime. right? when you're charging somebody, and maybe the highest stakes

trial in some ways in history because this is a former president of the united states, you have to have all your ducks in a row. >> as a prosecutor you'll say politics isn't supposed to enter this but it does. how does it? >> i don't know that politics enters it. i think prosecutors have to be careful about having public trust. >> political fallout. >> you keep wanting to use the word politics. i don't want to use that word. you know, the famous phrase if you run at the king you best not miss. there are a lot of people opposed to this prosecution. so like any prosecution you want to have your ts crossed and is dotted and proof beyond a reasonable doubt and a strong case. i think you want to have an exceptionally strong case when you are bringing it in the context of i'll use your word things are very politicized to show not just the jury in the case but the public at large it was a righteous case, a meritorious case, and you have the goods.

>> here is a question a lot of people have been asking and i know you weren't involved in this case but the manhattan da got a conviction on the trump organization. essentially they got the conviction by proving donald trump's culpability in this tax fraud scheme. what is preventing them from bringing charges against him in your view? >> you know, i don't know. i don't love to comment on other people's cases. but, look. there is a reason why they didn't bring the case against donald trump or an individual. in any organization there can be depending on what the e-mails are, depending on the communications, what the testimony is, on whether or not there is a cooperator, and there was of a sort in this case, this plausible deniability about the knowledge and intent of the person at the top. in all of these cases, mar-a-lago, january 6, the trump organization that the manhattan da's office looked at, it always comes down to what can you prove about the intent and the mind set and knowledge of the person at the top? they probably didn't have it. >> the january 6th committee is likely to issue some criminal referrals to justice they say. without getting -- we don't want to prejudge that -- but of the committee, what you saw and what

the committee has produced, do you think they have made their case against donald trump? >> it is not their role to make a criminal case though they're making the referral. i guess people can debate what the value and virtue is of making a criminal referral >> i can argue both sides of that good or bad. >> to me it is largely symbolic. from the time we first started having this debate about a referral it wasn't clear how far along the justice department was. since then the justice department has appointed special counsel as we mentioned and they have a lot of staff they've added to the matter. they're far along and have issued subpoenas we've heard reports about. so they are investigating this thing anyway. >> so you think a criminal referral actually complicates things? >> i don't think it complicates things. i don't think it does anything for the justice department. i don't think it prompts them to do anything more quickly. >> doesn't it add negatively to the political stew, the word you don't want to use?

>> you could argue that. i don't know why they feel a need to do it. i think they want to make a statement for themselves. i think it has no impact on the justice department whatsoever. >> preet bharara, former u.s. attorney, who has a fabulous podcast. >> thanks. >> good to have you here. when we come back the 2022 midterms are finally over. i swear. what lessons can we learn? we'll go inside some of the key counties we were tracking, next.

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marked the official end of the 2022 midterms. we want to look at what we learned from the set of hand picked counties we here at nbc news used to try all across the country to examine how different segments of the electorate voted this cycle. younger voters, rural african americans, evangelicals, working class voters, chamber of commerce republicans. so let me start here with rural african americans. this was a key place to look to see, could democrats lift north carolina? well, you could see in anson county the answer is no. here is one reason. beasley under performed biden in anson and you saw a turn out in general. she under performed in all the rural african american counties in north carolina. in georgia, chattooga county, marjorie taylor green's county. this was not just how well walker would do. he did really well, but whether

he'd get the evangelical turn out. only 70% of the presidential vote in 2020 turned out in this county. that was a problem across the state for walker and why he lost. in dane county a check in on young voters home of the university of wisconsin. here democrats did really well. 90% of the presidential turned out, showed up in 2022. mandela barnes did better in dane county than joe biden did. barnes didn't lose wisconsin because of young voters not showing up but because he under performed in milwaukee, by the way. delaware county, ohio's, our check-in with the chamber of commerce republicans, you can tell. mike dewine did really well in this county. he is more of a senator right republican. look how j.d. vance a trump republican did. he still carried it but by double digits less than what dewine got. it tells you there is a problem

growing here if you're a trump republican in some of these places. luzerne county a former democratic union county that had moved toward trump. i tell you this. democrats carried it in the governor's race and fetterman did better than biden here indicating that the trump nominees turned off even some trump leaning voters in a county like luzerne. up next republicans suffered another midterm loss in this georgia run-off this week. why the gop is starting to say out loud donald trump is a real liability for his party.

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talk to a hand specialist. but what if i don't want surgery? well, then you should find a hand specialist certified to offer nonsurgical treatments. what's the next step? visit findahandspecialist.com today to get started. we are back. all right. so donald trump officially cost them another senate seat. sara fagen, i want to play, i know we've been here before. i guess the question different this time? here are some republican senators who i think are hoping that it is different this time. take a listen. >> he's, if you will, the kiss of death for somebody who wants to win a general election. at some point we have to move on. >> was he a factor? i don't think there is any question about that. because a lot of the candidates that had problems in these elections were running on the

2020 election being stolen. i don't think independent voters were having it. >> what you can say objectively is those candidates most closely associated with former president trump under performed. that is objective. >> sara fagen, georgia is the best example, a state that voted republican in every race except one statewide. >> donald trump has cost republicans the senate twice now. i don't think that is really in doubt. the silver lining perhaps for republicans is our senior leaders are now saying out loud what they've been thinking for a while and we need more of liability for his party. we are back. all right. so donald trump officially cost them another senate seat. sara fagen, i want to play, i know we've been here before. i guess the question is, is it different this time? here are some republican senators who i think are hoping that it is different this time. take a listen. >> he's, if you will, the kiss of death for somebody who wants to win a general election. at some point we have to move on. >> was he a factor? i don't think there is any question about that. because a lot of the candidates that had problems in these elections were running on the 2020 election being stolen. i don't think independent voters were having it. >> what you can say objectively is those candidates most closely associated with former president trump under performed. that is objective. >> sara fagen, georgia is the best example, a state that voted republican in every race except one statewide. >> donald trump has cost republicans the senate twice

now. i don't think that is really in doubt. the silver lining perhaps for republicans is our senior leaders are now saying out loud what they've been thinking for a while and we need more of that. i think it is more profound at this statewide level than it is at the house. i think we're not going to see that trend as much in the house as you head into 2024. >> you buy what peggy noonan says if you want trump to go away the voters have to be the final -- >> i totally agree. i think the future of the republican party is so dependent on this next presidential election. does he run and lose by the vote? or does he succeed? in which case he cements his hold on the party. >> cornell, the democratic -- victorious democratic coalition of the last i would say 18, 20, 22, three cycles in a row, donald trump played a huge part in it. if donald trump is not there, how concerned are you about carrying places like an arizona and georgia? >> well, i think part of the problem is that if donald trump isn't there, look. look at the base of the republican party and who is choosing these nominees. herschel walker is such a terrible candidate. the republican primary voters picked him. go out to arizona where you think you had these terrible trump candidates. the republican primary voters chose them. so even if trump doesn't go away i still like the odds that they're going to continue to pick these trump-like individuals. >> showing up and doing events for them is a big part of this. >> they're also carrying his water. look, masters and this sort of

anti-semitism, racist, you know, replacement theory crap that you get from donald trump, you're getting from an awful lot of these republican candidates. you are >> i do think what makes this moment feel a little bit different, it is way too soon to say that it is, you do have more republicans who are circling the wagons, former administration officials saying they're prepared to face off against him. john bolton for example this week saying in the wake of former president trump saying he is going to rip up the constitution, saying, look. we have to stop him. i am prepared to get into the race to try to be one of those people who does it. i think it is not just all of the different areas we're talking about. the fact he endorsed herschel walker, hand picked him and all of these candidates, but also his messaging. the fact he has depressed early voting. that was such a key part of why senator warnock held on to his senate seat and republicans are really upset about that. >> garrett, you know what we couldn't have done today? i couldn't put together a mash of republican members of congress talking about all of the good things donald trump does bring to the party right now. i'm curious. what -- who are his chief -- does he have a group of republicans that can basically buck him up in congress for the

next year? >> oh, absolutely. it is the house republican conference who are all going to have to run potentially with him on the ballot in 2024. >> some of them want to run with him. >> absolutely. they want to run with him on border issues, on the perception of washington corruption. look, trump has probably never been weaker but he still -- republicans are going to have to beat him twice if they're going to have him not be the nominee. you have to beat him electorally in the primary and beat his ideology because if you leave a wounded trump kind of alive on the battle field after the primary season he is not going to go away. >> 5% always trumpers makes it impossible for republicans to win, right? >> i don't think so. we've seen examples of republicans like governor kemp standing up to him and winning and winning in a primary against a well known individual. so i don't, i mean, look. he is very popular. he is probably 50% of the primary electorate that is no small number. >> more than enough. >> boy, that is enough. if it's that good he is the nominee. >> yes.

but we don't know how this plays out when there are ten candidates in the coalitions and the debate that occurs. i think he is beatable. >> all right. >> jack kemp, jeb bush, all of those main stream republicans are not walking back in the door because the primary voters won't let them. >> on that point that is all we have for today. thank you for watching. we'll be back next week because if it's sunday it's "meet the press." i think it's happening now because republicans think it's an opportunity to hol