well, i would defer to john in his role as national security adviser, but it just -- >> we -- >> we weren't in the business of a prisoner swaps, in the business of this kind of an uneven trade, john. so i wouldn't question that at all as having been the case. >> they didn't like uneven prison swaps. >> oh, no. >> where you would trade one for another. what they liked to do is they were in the business of letting 5,000 taliban terrorists go free. >> yeah.

>> right? because that's what donald trump thought, and i guess by extension if mike really wants to put himself with trump, that's what they did. and they were also in the business of cozying up to dictators that would take americans hostage, and then in the case of kim jong-un, beat them to death, college kids from ohio, they would beat them to death, ship them back home to the united states, and donald trump would cozy up even closer to dictators like kim jong-un and write what he called love letters. he would continue cozying up even after paul whelan, who's become this cause celebre for conservatives, strangely enough,

when the family said donald trump never mentioned his name once when he was president. he's talked about it a lot more to make political points against joe biden, than he ever did when he was president. donald trump, president in 2018, when paul whelan was captured, 2019, hd him hostage, trump did absolutely nothing but ca hostage, and cozied up to kim jong-un, who'd taken an american hostage and beat him to death, and let 5,000 taliban members go. >> and invited the taliban to camp david. >> then invited thome camp david on september 11th. yeah. this guy -- >> this is why i don't get -- >> this is not the guy that you want guarding the pentagon. >> no. >> this is not the guy you want making deals because he doesn't know how to make deals. that's his problem. >> i understand why mike pence

parsed his words around this, but you can't parse words around what -- >> i actually -- i just -- sh i've stopped trying to figure out why republicans do what republicans do and why they won't stand up to donald trump. bottom line is this -- donald trump let 5,000 taliban terrorists go. he got nothing in exchange. he cozied up to dictators who kidnapped americans and in one case beat them to death and shipped them back to the united states where they died. and again paul whelan's own family very bitter toward donald trump, not joe biden, very bitter toward donald trump. trump just didn't give a damn about americans. let me tell you what, though -- americans outside of that right-wing bubble that donald trump runs, they're really grateful when other americans are brought home.

they're really grateful when a woman is released from a russian penal colony and allowed to come back to the united states of america. normal americans, people that love this country, they celebrate that. and even if they have questions about whether they would have made the deal, they still celebrate the fact that an american was not left behind, that an american was brought home to be with her family, to be with her loved ones once again. that's what normal americans do. >> and meeting at the white house today reportedly about paul whelan. the president saying he's still committed to trying to get paul whelan home. but what you had heard there as we came into the top of the fourth hour of "morning joe" was former vice president mike pence responding to the revelation that former president trump rejected an offer that would have brought the marine veteran, paul whelan, who's been locked

up in russia for nearly four years, home. it comes as we're learning more about the first hours of freedom for brittney griner and what's next on her recovery after ten months in a russian jail. plus, we'll go through the details of president joe biden's phone call last night with ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskiy. you see what he has to balance is this hot war between ukraine and russia and then this unbelievable negotiation to get brittney griner home. it's not very simple. meanwhile, on capitol hill, lawmakers have until friday to hammer out a deal to prevent a government shutdown. we're going to get the very latest on those negotiations in just a moment. we're also keeping an eye on wall street this morning ahead of a key report on inflation due out tomorrow. cnbc's andrew ross sorkin will be with us to break down everything we need to know. jonathan lemire, mike barnicle are still with us, and we will begin this hour with a full wrap-up of wnba star brittney

griner on the road to recovery, how she's doing after spending nearly ten months behind bars. this morning we're learning more about her first few days home. nbc news correspondent priscilla thompson has the details. >> reporter: new photos and details brittney griner's first moments of freedom, standing in front of an american flag, by her side, her why have cherelle and the man who helped bring her home. >> she called everyone over to take photos with her. that shows you the kind of woman she is. >> reporter: the u.s. special envoy spent months work tong team that negotiated griner's release and was on board that 18-hour flight to texas. he says the two-time olympic gold medalist was eager to connect and chatted for hours. >> we tried to give her some space. she said, no, i want to talk, i want to relate to people. and i found someone who was just absolutely wonderful, kind, generous, interesting, and above

all authentic. >> reporter: surprising many, the first images showed her with her head shaved, her attorney telling espn she cut off her locks two weeks ago because of the cold temperatures, they kept freezing after she showered. her return has ignited a firestorm among some republicans who say freeing viktor bout jeopardizes national security. >> the trump administration was always very clear, we weren't going to trade bad guys for celebriies because it creates the wrong to incentives for the bad guys. >> reporter: now bout is speaking out. telling russian state media he fully supports the war in ukraine and would volunteer if he could. u.s. officials say any threat bout might pose is manageable and that they're focused on bringing more wrongfully imprisoned americans abroad like paul whelan home. a battle griner is also vowing

to fight. >> b.g. and i will remain committed to the work of getting every american home. >> nbc's priscilla thompson with that report. we're grateful for it. mike barnicle, do you have to mike pompeo's phone number? i don't have it on me. i might have it, i'm not sure. do you want to break the bad news to him or do i have to, he said they don't trade bad guys for celebrities, well, in that deal, you could also say for americans. it's not that hard to say for americans. but you want to break the news to him that mike pompeo and donald trump and mike pence signed off on releasing 5,000

taliban terrorists? and you know what we got in return? nothing. got nothing in return. so trump is negotiating against himself. i'll tell you what -- >> the worst negotiator on earth. >> 5,000 taliban terrorists, what did you exchange? nothing. >> the art of the deal. >> we'll release the 5,000 taliban terrorists. and these guys, we don't like negotiation for celebrities, they all come out and they're puffing their chest. they have a student from ohio killed in north korea on their watch. his blood on their hands. and they're lecturing us. when donald trump writes, quote, love letters to the man who killed an ohio college student. and the whelan family brings up he doesn't mention a marine taken hostage by russia because

he doesn't want to offend vladimir putin. and then they release 5,000 taliban terrorists and come up with this brilliant idea, mike pompeo, that you're going to meet the taliban at camp david on 9/11. >> oh, my god. >> on the anniversary when the taliban allowed al qaeda to kill over 3,000 americans and attack our homeland. who are these men who think they have any room to lecture anybody on how to negotiate the release of hostages? >> let's break the bad news to mike pence and the former secretary of state mike pompeo, former director of central intelligence agency as well, that they're in over their heads, especially -- >> they are. >> -- the latest is mike pence, who says this was an uneven

swap. so, mr. vice president, former vice president, what would be an even swap? define an even swap. define what you'd do with an american citizen who's called a celebrity by mike pompeo, she is, but that wasn't the reason she's free today, she's free today because she was an american citizen in captivity in russia, and russia approaches the negotiation the same way they approach the war in ukraine -- destroy, destroy, destroy. they have destroyed part of her life. so they've given an option to the united states. basically, the window is closing in 24 hours. we'll only release one american, we're not giving you paul whelan. so joe biden had on his december it can offer to release one american, one american, and he chose to get that one american released. he ought to be applauded for

what he did. i'm sure the family of the american, brittney griner, that he did release, applauds him today, as does the family of paul whelan. these other people who immerse themselves unless the politics of revenge and resentment, the pompeos, the pences, too many republicans in the house of representatives, they are all in over their heads. >> they are. by the way, if you let 5,000 taliban terrorists go and you get nothing in return, please don't lecture us. >> that's the biggest thing. >> on negotiations. you're in over your head. you made a fool of yourself for four years following donald trump around the way you did, letting 5,000 taliban terrorists go, trying to set up camp david meetings on the anniversary of september 11th. stop humiliating yourself. maybe you should just take up water colors, paint.

stay away from cameras. don't lecture anybody because -- >> the problem is those two want to run for president. >> lots of luck with that. they'll be at 1% or 2%. but i want to say, again, brittney griner's family's grateful. paul whelan's family, they've come out and said they're grateful as well that the deal was made and grateful that unlike donald trump that actually the biden administration is working to bring him home. but more importantly than that, the american people, because they actually -- they do live by a code that they're not inside bubbles, ideological bubbles, and that is you don't leetch americans behind. you bring them home to their families for the holidays. and anybody that can't celebrate that, well, they don't understand the goodness of americans and what's in americans' hearts.

that you can actually -- you can have concerns about the trade, you can talk about those concerns with the trade at the same time celebrate that we brought an american home. >> it's true. so we're going to move now to the government shutdown, potential government shutdown. there are just five days until the government funding runs out. and senate lawmakers are scrambling to get a deal together. democrats will not release their version of the senate omnibus bill today as originally planned while they continue negotiations with republicans. said appropriations chair senator patrick leahy said the two sides made significant progress over the weekend, but they will have to work faster to avoid a shutdown on friday. complicating matters is house minority leader kevin mccarthy's courting of right-wing votes in his quest to become speaker. he's now pressuring senate minority leader mitch mcconnell to walk away from the table

until the new congress in january. it's all about kevin. >> we're 28 days away from republicans having the gavel. we would be stronger in every negotiation. so any republican that's out there trying to work with them is wrong. >> does that include mcconnell? >> yes. why would you want to work on everything if we have the gavel inside congress? >> you just won the house. >> yeah. wait till we're in charge. >> joining us now from capitol hill nbc news senior national political reporter sahil kapur. sahil, what more can you tell us about the potential deal, i mean, is it possible to hold off as kevin mccarthy wants to do? >> it is certainly possible that they get a deal, mika, but it is 4 1/2 days away from a government shutdown. they've been negotiating this for months and they're still stuck on one particular point. the two parties are $26 billion apart on how much to spend. this is the old-fashioned

disagreement that had led to government shutdowns in the past. this is not about some extraneous ideological demand like repealing the aca. this is about how much the government should spend. the dispute is over the nonmilitary portion of the budget. democrats are demanding parity in spending on the pentagon and nondefense money, and republicans say that is not appropriate in this situation because 'e democrats passed reconciliation bills in the last two years, argued that democrats spent money on nondefense spending and as a result they should break the so-called parity principle here. democrats are reluctant because it sets a precedent they saw in the obama years where their nondefense priorities continue to get the hatchet again and again and again. so essentially where they are now is in the next couple of days they'll have to figure out whether they get a bigger deal and pass a stopgap funding bill, maybe kick it to next week, december 23rd, right before christmas as a noon deadline, or

if they can't get a deal, mika, they'll have to kick it to next year and that creates a whole new set of incentives because it will likely be kevin mccarthy and house republicans in charge. they'll be able to rip up these negotiations, everything they've done for the past months or so, and restart the negotiations on their terms. there is a desire, an eagerness to get this done on the part of some senate republicans, richard shelby, who's retiring, wants to go out with a bigger deal, mitch mcconnell as well encouraging these negotiations. but as you played there, kevin mccarthy has complicated the politics for republicans saying just wait, republicans will be in charge and we'll be able to reset the negotiations entirely soon. one wild fact, guys. a u.s. government is still operating on trump-era budget numbers. it's two years into the biden presidency. they've never passed a budget and been able to fund the government on those terms. they've been on auto pilot.

who's to say they get another one in a divided government for the next two years. >> sahil, we've got about three weeks left of this lame-duck session, keeping the government open probably number one in priority. but the electoral count act, we've heard so much about this in the wake of january 6th, there seemed to be momentum particularly on the senate side. where do things stand? is a deal going to be to get done before republicans take control of the house? >> it's an important question and i'm glad you asked. i spent late last week trying to figure that out. i asked chuck schumer, who said the first job is to get an omnibus. i spoke to amy klobucar, and she told me they're considering attaching that election bill to a government funding bill, to an am now bus package for the simple reason it takes about a week to pass anything in senate without consent. they don't have a lot of time, so they see this bill as the last train leaving the station

and want to attach an elections bill. but first they need to get a deal. klobucar is insistent she'll slow everything else down to get this bill through. this is their last window. the next couple weeks before republicans take control of the house, they need to get this through or there's no indication that a republican-controlled house would be willing to get this through. we are talking about overhauling the 1887 electoral count act to raise the bar for objections to the threshold for trying to overturn electoral volts, make it hard for future presidential candidates to steal elections. it has bipartisan support, but they're running out of time. they need to figure out how to get it through in the remaining days left. >> sahil kapur, thank you so much. interesting, mika, this past weekend we had a certain business person who owns a certain social media company -- >> right. >> -- attack anthony fauci and say that he wanted to, what was

it, wanted to indict him or whatever like that. and we've been talking, mike barnicle, this morning about bubbles, and the bubbles specifically -- you and i, mike, complain all the time about progressives that are in bubbles. it ain't nothing like the right-wingers that are in bubbles as far as having an impact on elections. that's why republicans keep losing. i just quickly wanted to do a quick check on anthony fauci, who trump republicans have made enemy number one despite the fact that he's given his life to public service and trying to save americans' lives from the aids epidemic all the way through covid. i saw about 20 years ago names put up in a poll and anthony

fauci the only person with a net positive approval rating. it shows again how wildly out of touch trump republicans are, republicans are in general, these conspiracy theorists. i just checked. a poll out a month ago, month and a half ago, donald trump, net favorable, minus 30. mike pence, net favorable, minus 17. ron desantis, minus 12. and you go down the list. they've got newsome, they've got joe biden, pete buttigieg, liz cheney. the only public figure out of all of those listed that has a net positive remains anthony fauci. why do i bring this up? first of all, because dr. fauci, irthank you for your service to america. >> thank you. >> but secondly, mike, this goes

along with everything that we've been saying. the you talk to people that live in this right-wing bubble, they put horns on anthony fauci. they attacked the release of an american from a penal colony. they live in an alternate universe, and they don't understand why they keep losing elections and why it's only going to get worse in the future. but anthony fauci, they have vilified this public servant for years, vilified him. and they actually think the public's -- they're, like, no, they're not. the public is glad that brittney griner is home, and the public is grateful for anthony fauci's service, something, again, that a certain owner of a certain social media site trying to own the libs, he needs to learn, you hang out with this crowd, you

only end up owning yourself. >> let's play match the careers with anthony fauci versus a bunch of republicans, the former guy who was in the white house, kevin mccarthy, who's trying to become speaker, mike pompeo, who we just saw, mike pence, who we just saw. let's play match up with their careers. since anthony fauci left holy cross and came into government to work, he has fought the alds aids epidemic, the ebola epidemic, he has fought covid for many, many years. he has done nothing but try and help people survive. he could have gone to private industry years ago and made a lot more money. he's been a career government servant, and i underline servant, because he has served the public. and now he's a target, has been a target of the republican party in their bubble, you're correct,

a target of that bubble for many months along with people like hunter biden. that's their priority. that's their priority, within that bubble, is to attack and vilify people, put hunter aside, but people like anthony fauci who have dedicated their lives to improving our lives. >> it shows up in the polls. again, the only public figure with a positive approval rating, and they keep attacking, thinking that somehow, oh, we're really going -- we're going to get something out of this. just out of touch. >> let's bring in amy walter to the conversation. she's a publisher and editor in chief of the koch political report. you have a new piece entitled "what losing 2022 democratic candidates tell us about '24 priorities?" in it, you discuss who could lead the democratic party in the coming years, writing in part,

"in politics, losing isn't always a career ender. presidents barack obama and george w. bush both lost u.s. house continue tests before winning statewide office. today, democrats' most lauded loser is a white guy from ohio who gave democrats some home of winning back their blue-collar followers. democratic senate nominee tim ryan ran just a couple points ahead of biden's showing in the buckeye state, but his strong campaign operation helped down ballot democrats win in key house races in the state. what does ryan do with his newfound fame? for now, the path to the white house is closed. if he's going to find a political future he may, like obama and bush before him, have to wait for more than just one cycle before the opportunity presents itself again. it may not be possible to win back ohio, but democrats now see midwestern governors like

gretchen whitmer in michigan and josh shapiro in pennsylvania as their best potential presidential contenders for the near future." when you look at those three names in there -- shapiro, whitmer, and tim ryan -- those are three great candidates. >> really strong midwest candidates. and, amy, how fascinafascinatin course 20, 22 years ago, tim russert talked about florida, florida, florida. now it's wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania. and i'm still shocked how well democrats did in a state like michigan, how -- i have no idea how edwards squeaked over the finish line in wisconsin, but he did. how well democrats did in pennsylvania. >> fetterman. he had a stroke. >> well, and how well they did at the congressional level in those states as well. it wasn't just the top of the ticket in many of those states,

as i pointed out in ohio. you have tim ryan helping to lift up candidates for the house including the seat that he left to run for the senate. you know, it's interesting, we look back at 2018, who was everybody talking about in democratic circles? stacey abrams and beto o'rourke. they were going to lead democrats away from the midwest. they could win in texas and georgia. that was going to be the -- the sun belt was going to be savior for democrats. but this last election i think what democrats came to recognize is you still need the midwest. yes, democrats did very well in georgia and arizona, of course, but texas looks farther away than ever, so does florida. and while ohio may never come back, i think the fact that democrats saw someone who was fighting in ohio, whosms saying

let's not give up and forget it, leave place like the midwest or ohio behind, is the important distinction for this cycle, and especially thinking about 2024, it's not just the white house and the path the white house runs through, but senate control runs through states that are pretty rural and include ohio once again. >> yeah. i mean, texas gone, florida is gone, ohio looks rough, but those up erp midwest states look strong. >> that's right. >> let me ask you, then we can go to break and we'll ask you more questions on the other side, i'm curious about this ongoing debate by data people about who really studied it, about hispanics. we hear all the time, oh, the hispanics are bleeding support -- democrats are bleeding hispanic support, it's absolutely terrible. i dig down into numbers and, you know, it seems maybe it's not

that bad. >> right. >> but i'm curious, what have you found about 2022 on hispanics and also about suburban women, especially, how they bolted away from the republican party. >> these are really important questions, and i think in this election for latino voters, it's sort of a mixed bag. i mean, democrats will tell you, look, no doubt florida, that was bad news, especially losing miami-dade county, but they held their own in democratic -- in the reo grand valley, nevada, arizona. the good news for democrats, one democratic strategist said to me is we're not doing any worse than we did with those voters in 2020. the bad news is we're not doing any better than we were in 2020. so not hitting 2018-type levels but not going further down. i just think you have such a question about turnout, right.

to me that's the bigger question going into 2024. with donald trump on the top of the ticket, the kinds of voters that turn out when he's on the ticket include i think not just our traditional white voter that we think of, rural voter in the midwest, but also certain types of latino voter who is come out and vote when donald trump is on the ticket, at least did in 2020 or where the conversation was in those communities. i think in terms of the suburban voter, that's an excellent point, and, you know, back in 2018, we were all talking about the question about whether these voters were just being rented, right, that democrats had them, but only when trump was on the ticket. well, now we've had a 2018, a 2020, and a 2022. there are certainly signs that those voters have left for good, but let's see what happens if and when donald trump isn't in

the picture where those voters go. >> yeah. let's see. all right. still ahead on "morning joe," wall street futures are pointing high they are morning ahead of the federal reserve's last policy meeting of the year. cnbc's andrew ross sorkin will join us with what to expect from the central bank in its fight to curb inflation. also, the 80th installment of the golden globe awards is set for next month, and this morning the nominees are in. we'll have a look at the latest contenders. postmenopausal women with hr+ her2- metastatic breast cancer are living longer with kisqali. so, long live family time. long live dreams. and long live you. kisqali is a pill proven to help women live longer when taken with an aromatase inhibitor. and kisqali helps preserve quality of life. so you're not just living, you're living well. kisqali can cause lung problems or an abnormal heartbeat which can lead to death.

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i think we'll see a substantial reduction in inflation in the year ahead. >> it's going to take year. >> well, i believe by the end of next year you will see much lower inflation if there's not an unanticipated shock. >> you have said this, you do not believe there will be a

recession next year. >> there's a risk of recession, but it certainly isn't in my view something that is necessary to bring inflation down. >> all right. treasury secretary janet yellen predicting inflation will be much lower by the end of next year. very positive news. this comes as investors keep a close eye on tomorrow's federal reserve meeting. let's bring in the co-anchor of cnbc's "squawk box," the legendary -- he is a legend, a legend in westchester county. >> and adorbs. >> adorable. thanks for being with us. "wall street journal" headline, markets show more confidence in soft landing. it's something that of course you've been talking about, everybody's been talking about. >> yes. >> can there be a soft landing. nothing's for sure. we certainly learned that over the past year or two.

but wall street right now feeling pretty good about the possibility of a soft landing. >> look, the market has been optimistic, though, throughout the whole year. i don't want to be the pessimist here, but i think we'll hear on wednesday from jay powell what he really thinks and frankly how hard a landing or exactly what he thinks he needs to do to keep it from becoming a hard landing. right now the market is anticipating what's called a 50 basis point move to raise interest rates by that. there are some people who think they could actually go higher. if that were the case, the stock market would likely fall because right now what's baked in, if you will, is this idea of 50 basis points. and when you heard janet yellen last night on "60 minutes" talk about the idea that inflation is going to come down by the end of '23, which is important, the end of '23, not saying it's going to happen the second the new year

rolls around, the question is how far down does it come? most economists think we could still be talking about, you know, 4% -- 4% inflation rates. that would be -- you know, that would still be pretty high if you think about where we'd be. >> i'm curious, were you surprised, given the history of what the secretary has said, what the biden administration said about inflation being transitory, were you surprised that last night she was a bit optimistic in talking about the possibility of this soft landing? >> no. i think -- to be honest, she's been relatively consistent, at least over the last year, six months to a year, about what her expectations are, and for obvious reasons, and i'm not suggesting it's political per se, but she wants it to be a soft landing and we'll see whether she will be proven

correct. he's admitted she's made mistakes in terms of this idea of the transitory nature of inflation, but i think the question is when you think about what kind of rate are we talking about, are we living at a 3% rate of growth a-4% rate of growth, and what that means to inflation, that's the hard part. and, you know, if we're living at 4%, that's still going to be high at the end of next year, and what does the fed therefore have to do or not. >> all right. >> cnbc's andrew ross sorkin. thank you. >> loved him as kid. trust him as a father. >> i feel like a kid. with you guys always. >> please. please. you're the best. >> thanks, andrew. >> no musk. no conversation about musk today. you've already done it. you guys have already done it. >> to be honest with you -- >> not to bring his -- >> he's so obviously -- >> gross.

>> -- playing -- he's doing like this shock opera routine, you know, his thing on anthony fauci, again -- >> it's dangerous. it is. >> it's stupid. it's dangerous if you have a lot of money in tesla. it's stupid otherwise. all of this sort of twitter -- again, andrew, you brought him up, so i'll just say, like, i can get off twitter. i don't really care. but i'm wondering what a guy spending $44 billion on that, he's got this brilliant mind for inventing things, for creating things. i just -- everyone day i wonder why is he acting like a back-bench republican in the house of representatives instead of, like, the richest guy in the world, a guy who could actually take the country positive places? i don't get it. >> i don't understand it either, i have to say. it's lost on me because i also

think -- i always think that -- i like to think that the economics of things make things, you know, rational, and there are some things almost irrational to me about what's happening here both because you would think that advertisers wouldn't be around this and, you know, you think about -- you saw last night she was at a concert in san francisco, he gets booed on the stage and you start to think about all the people who may not want to buy teslas, genuinely, literally because of some of this. i wish i could make sense of it. but i'm struggling. >> i'm with you. when i'm looking at countries and how they react, i never thought at the end of the day that putin would be illogical enough to go in to ukraine. he did. and he keeps taking the country down a rat hole. and so, it is disconcerting because he's acting every day against russia's own

self-interest. >> right. >> and losing 100,000 soldiers. >> in a much smaller area, you have a billionaire, richest guy in the world, he can afford to lose $44 billion, but, again, what's the logic in playing to a small slice of conspiracy theorists? who's he playing to? i'm always asking what's the end game? >> does he believe in this stuff? >> i don't get it because you're right, i can't tell you how many people over the past five, ten years people have said, joe, you should get a tesla, coolest car in the world. get a tesla. you need to buy a tesla. nobody is saying that anymore. >> and that won't be happening. >> nobody is saying that anymore. and again, it's not about me, but it's like you said, why would he tarnish his image? he doesn't have to. >> and he could bring people together. i think that's the thing that i

think -- what you said before, the opportunity to do that is so great, and for reasons that are inexplicable, at least at the moment, not what's happening. >> all right, andrew. >> thanks. you bet. >> good to have you on. jonathan lemire. >> walter, you said something a moment ago about the importance of rural voters to democrats in the context of ohio. well, montana's senator was asked about that topic on "meet the press" yesterday. let's listen and i want to ask you about it. >> we need to talk about it, and we don't talk about it near enough. the infrastructure package is a prime example. it will help rural america big time when it comes to broadband and electrical distribution and roads and bridges. we didn't talk about it. we didn't talk about it from a rural perspective. it has to be a concentrated effort and we are very bad at message, and we need to work at that and get that message out to rural america so rural america

know who is's fighting for them. and i think it's across the board. and if we're able to do that and do that effectively, chuck, you'll see those numbers change. >> so, amy, jon tester is up for re-election in 2024 in what is portrayed to be a pretty tough map for democrats. walk us through it. talk about what that map does look like and why rural voters may be so important to it. >> yeah. it's a great point. in 2024, democrats, just three of the toughest states for them to defend include montana, which obviously donald trump won very handily, west virginia -- we'll have to remember of course joe manchin up -- and then ohio, sherry brown. i think there are two important questions to ask before we even get into the realities of those states. the first is will every one of those democrats run? i think why democrats were successful in 2022, at least one

of the reasons is they didn't have to defend any open seats. they didn't have tough primaries that bruised the ultimate nominee or divided the party. will they be able to follow through on that in the upcoming cycle? and the second thing is the kind of person that republicans nominate. yes, these are trump-leaning states, but a candidate that doesn't fit the state or the democrats are able to point to the category of somebody who's not looking out for the interests of that state, that's going to be problematic, especially because brown and tester and manchin have really deep profiles in that state. they're well-known in those areas. they don't have to reintroduce themselves. it's just gotten harder and harder, as we all know, for candidates to separate themselves from the national party. there are a handful of them left, though.

susan collins is one. and joe manchin and jon tester, brown are the others. so let's see if they're able to do that. i think the other question as i said before the break was are there kinds of rural voters, kinds of republican voters that turn out in the presidential year when it involves donald trump that don't turn out in midterm years and what that looks like and whether those voters actually are listening to democratic messaging or whether they're just coming out to vote for donald trump. >> all right. publisher and editor in chief of "the cook political report," amy walter, thank you very much for coming on this morning. we appreciate it. coming up, the golden globe nominations are out. we'll go for the best in tv and film next on "morning joe." cer:r ...or plan?

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let's go to los angeles let's go to los angeles now where the 2023 golden globe nominations were just announced a second ago recognizing film and television. the nominees are "better call

saul", the crown, "house of the dragon", ozark, and severance. interesting. and best actress in a drama includes emma darcy, laura linney and hillary swank in alaska daily. the nominees for best actor in a drama tv series, jeff bridges in "the old man." kevin costner in "yellowstone." and diego luna. best motion picture drama, of tore the way of water, elvis, interesting. the fabelmans, tar, "top gun: maverick." and olivia colman, empire of light. viola davis, "the woman king." and the list includes austin butler in "elvis."

hugh jackman in "the son." they will be streaming on peacock. i'm a little surprised by the elvis nominations. >> you weren't a big fan? >> it was horrible. >> okay. like i said, you weren't a big fan of the show. >> i really think -- those are the choices. am i supposed to be like woo-hoo! come on. say it. >> i'm glad andor got a mention. "yellowstone" got a mention in there. i would like to see some 1883. glad to see "the crown." bad sisters. come on. >> catastrophe? >> that's a couple years ago.

>> i'm not really meant for this. >> 2003. i'm going to mention one that wasn't on the list, jonathan. have you seen any of slow horses? the best show on television right now. >> ever. >> not yet. but open to giving it a spot. the combination of two kids and 3:15 a.m. alarm, i'm pretty behind on my tv. andor, we finished it, it's wonderful. >> it's unbelievable. >> one of the best products they have made. thrilled to see that on there. happy to check out" slow horses." white lotus went off the air last night. got a lot of people are buzzing. >> andor the best product in a very long time for "star wars."

just great. "slow horses," have you had a chance to see it yet? >> fantastic. >> it is unbelievable. bad sisters too. >> bad sisters. two big misses. you're right, mika. oh, swrarbg and "better call saul." ozark. bad sisters, slow horses not being on is a big disappointment. >> i think they are the two best shows. >> any reason why sharon didn't call me? >> no. she doesn't like you, obviously. but gary oldman -- >> fantastic. >> my god. you need to watch it. you need to watch it. >> all right. i will. >> we talked a lot this morning how the extreme fringe of the republican party is no longer made up of back benchers.

just those weirdo few. our next guest says the gop fringe is members committed to good governance. tom rogers and republican strategist and nbc news political analyst susan dell percio joan us now. >> you run an article in "newsweek." we're all talking how kevin mccarthy is obsessed on the extremists, right? it works the other way. if you have five, ten republicans that are actually interested in getting things done that aren't going to follow leadership that supports an armed insurrection against the united states government like marjorie taylor greene did this weekend, why can't it work the other way, tom? why can't the 10 go we're not letting you follow them down a rabbit trail that will lead to another two years of losing?

>> well, you're absolutely right. the best segue from best actor to bad actor. the fringe are these limited number of republicans who might have their own incentive to be more independent moderate. there are 18 republicans who won in districts that joe biden carried in 2020. and 13 of them won by less than 5% of the vote. so these are people who are going to face tough re-election. they have their own political incentives to think about how as more independent-minded republicans they can take kevin mccarthy away from the grip of the extremists and assert some leverage by what susan and i call creating a democracy caucus. >> yeah. so, susan, who is in it? is it big enough to help save our democracy?

>> well, those 18 members that we would propose to at least get started. those who won biden districts in 2022. but there's also some other republicans out there who have been known to vote with the democrats on some issues like gun safety and same-sex marriage. the point for me was i'm so angry at seeing what we used to call fringe members of the house now mainstream. why do their voice or votes count more than really successful good-intentioned principled republicans. they shouldn't. why not go out and form a kind of deal with the democrats. it's a little out there, i know. and it would break up everything we know is normal now. but go out, reach out and say, we'll make you speaker, kevin mccarthy so you still get everything you want. but let's do a little shared

government. really. >> to the point susan just made, we have a handful of republicans who won seats that joe biden carried. what are the odds you can pick off five or six to vote for a majority position largely formed by democrats and thus put a stop sign on some of the crazy republicans? what are the odds of that happening? >> well, as somebody earlier in the show said, who is an aid to speaker ryan, the moderates have not shown much guts here. but this is a standup. they could have a real voice. they've got to be thinking about their own 2024 with a five-vote house of representatives margin. there's six republicans who were elected in new york who are in districts that biden won. they're going to have air very different situation come 2024 in a democratic presidential candidate at the top of the ticket. they really have to think about how they end up not only

preserving themselves but bringing some damage control back to the republican party, which is badly damaged in terms of reputations in districts like that. >> yeah. jonathan, it's not like they have to be, quote, political moderates. be conservative. support less spending, less taxes, a strong military. you can do all the things that republicans have done up until the last six years. they don't have to be moderates. they don't have to be squishes. just be normal and stay out of the smelling salts. >> some let's talk about the role he still plays. still the loudest voice in the republican party. how can the republicans defy what he would want here? >> they have to defy him. they won in biden districts by staying away from donald trump.

these aren't the extremists of the reps that won their primaries. they owe nothing to donald trump. they should just remember their voices count as much as marjorie taylor greene and matt gaetz and the other loud mouths. they don't get special votes because they're loud. stand up for yourself. do the right thing. >> susan and tom, always about to see you both. thank you both very much for coming on this morning. and that does it for us this morning. jose diaz-balart picks up the coverage right now. good morning. 10:00 a.m. eastern, 7:00 a.m. pacific. in just a few hours, the man accused of making the palm in the terrorist attack on a flight over lockerbie, scotland will appear in a u.s. court 34 years after the deadly attack. plus, we're learning new details about the high-profile prisoner swap that brought wnba

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