>> good afternoon, everybody.

i'm lindsay reiser in for yasmin of a soup in. a terrifying attack in new york city. a suspect going after police with a machete. questions about why he did it. and the writing suddenly be tied to him. suspect in the midst of -- murders for college is not a whole mason be on the move. breaking news from capitol's -- this as republicans grapple with questions about incoming congressman and alleged serial liar george santos. surprising is from the white house involving a joint appearance for president biden and cinnamon art and leader mitch mcconnell. and donald trump brings in a new year. it starts with the doj

investigation of the former president heating up a new revelations about his finances. all of that plus how things are looking for our wallets in the new year. i'll talk to an expert about where the economy is heading in 2023. that discussion ahead. we have some breaking news you want to get to. jess confirmed by nbc news. kevin mccarthy will hold a call today at 4 pm as he works overtime to shore of votes to become the next house speaker. let's get right nbc's aly ruffalo beloved airlines from capitol hill. pbs news hour co-anchors alison a mystery signature reader. ali, first i want to start with your scoop here. what can you tell us about this meeting? >> lindsey, my colleague haley talbotton i have seen your reporting on how kevin mccarthy is spending this last weekend as he battles for the speakership. we know he's going to hold its 4 pm call with house gop member to try and lock in every last ounce of support he can. before this make-or-break moment on tuesday. when the speaker's election is

said to be held. that's in addition to morning meeting on tuesday. warehouse gop members for a coalescing talk about what they plan to do when that election is finally held. this is because mccarthy knows is gonna come down to a tricky game of numbers. remember, he needs that magic number 218 votes to win the speakers gavel. right now, there are more house gop members publicly opposing him then he can afford to lose and still win. right now, we know he's making concessions. he's considering making these concessions like changing committee rules. lowering the threshold on something called the motion to vacate. that would make it easier for house gop members to oust a sitting speaker. something we know far-right members of his caucus have been pushing for four months. something that would put him even more of a vulnerable position if he does gain the speakership. the last thing that mccarthy wants to happen on tuesday is to not have that solid amount of support to be able to get this done in one round of votes. it's possible that this could go to multiple rounds until

someone wins a majority of the votes. that's something we haven't seen happen here and 100 years on capitol hill. the stakes cannot be higher for kevin mccarthy right now. >> i want to get your reaction here what does give mccarthy at this point have to do. have to offer to get more votes. we want to elaborate on that looming the threshold vote to vacate or maybe anything that you're reporting suggests. >> some of those things i would suggest -- shown upon reporting. these are all concessions that in particular members of the for the right faction of the house republican conference have been seeking. it's largely they say to hold mr. mccarthy accountable. if he is to become speaker. there are things in terms of committing rules and changes that they like to see as well. that motion to vacate is key. that means that kevin mccarthy, if he were to win the speakership, would be incredibly accountable to the members of his caucus that -- they're holding the majority by a razor thin margin right now. he's got only four of those

votes to spare. five members publicly saying that they are going to oppose him. it's a huge moment for this party and for this caucus. as they step into the majority. into this new year. probably about mark center marker at the anticipated kicking off this new year. >> this isn't the only problem facing the gop. how are they feeling revelations that incoming congressman george santos essentially lied about key parts of his life. >> adding to this headache for mccarthy. not just mccarthy but also house gop leadership. are these allegations and the scandal around congressman elect george santos. those falsehoods that some of them, he's admitted to on his resume, we've seen mccarthy and has gop leadership silent on this issue after multiple requests for comment. there have been members, or i can tell members, democrats and republicans alike who aren't being so silent. take a listen to what some democrats and republicans had to say on this earlier.

>> how do you talk to your family running for reelection sure? >> is there an election coming up? i didn't know that. >> that wasn't the exact but we are looking for. but we do know the democrats in republicans are calling on mccarthy and house gop leadership to do something. there are also republicans who are saying if there aren't calls for santos to resign than their ali should be a house ethics committee investigation into these falsehoods on his resume. if and when he is sworn in. right, now we know that santos really helped republicans gain that majority. maturity that's now so narrow that mccarthy's not wanting to really ruffle any feathers or risk losing santos support. something he's pledged to give mccarthy on tuesday. or the support of others who are backing santos. this is going to tee up a very interesting vote on tuesday. we know that before santos can even be sworn in or before this house majority could even get to legislating, they have to elect a speaker. that's the first need to be

able to do. really raising the stakes on what is potentially a very interesting vote on tuesday. >> when it comes to the gop so far in terms of santo, is retiring congressman in new york john -- put it like this to politico. calling it a no and situation. saying the defense someone who's made several material misstatements but its background or do they couldn't loose with a razor-thin majority. do you get the sense that there are just trying to do some political calculus here? >> i think that's absolutely it. john katko is retiring. he's been -- say something publicly about this or expressing displeasure about the way that these revelations have unfolded. about the many different ways in which representative santos is soon to be representative santos has misled or lied about his past. everything from where he's worked or where he went to school to his faith and his lineage. there are other members, texas lawmaker pete sessions for examples come right out and said i'm not comfortable with mr. center as being a part of this conference. by a large republican

leadership can -- remain largely muted. there's really no political incentive for them to do anything about this. in particular before mr. mccarthy potentially wins that speakership. some sources have said that maybe after he was the speakership there could be some direction. something, some steps taken to hold mr. santos accountable. mr. santos says he will be sworn in. he plans to join this congress. meanwhile, there is a nasa county district attorney launching an investigation, calls for other democrats and others. the incentive for mr. mccarthy, republican leadership right now to act out is very low. i expect we don't see anything on that until well after the speakership i was settled. >> our thanks to our producer there at the capitol with you. -- a big congratulations as you take over the news our anchor deaths tomorrow with our good friend jeff bennett. you're gonna have a lot of fun, i can tell. we will be watching. >> thank you so much. >> coming up next hour also will be joined by robert

zimmerman, the democrat who lost to congressman elect santos. to talk about his push for a congressional probe into santos's lies. there's some surprising news coming out of the white house today. president biden will be touting his infrastructure bill this week. in kentucky. at alongside him will be cinnamon already leader mitch mcconnell. mike milley was the first report the story and shows me now from -- where the president is spending his holiday weekend. mike, no surprise here that the president wants to be politicizing this project in kentucky. mcconnell, pretty unusual for the leader of the opposition in the senate to be today with as well. he could easily skip this event. >> lindsey, i gotta say, i'm really fascinated by this announcement. the white house. making today the very first public event, the president will be holding on the road this year. it will be not necessarily a surprise as you see at the topic. talking about the infrastructure law. they're gonna be 20,000 infrastructure projects being funded by the law this year.

you'll see the president and other facials traveling the country promoting them all. understand the presidents political motivations so what is mitch mcconnell thinking here? i remind you, mitch mcconnell as the leaders and republicans really -- president obama's first term in office of the number one political goal was to make him a one term president. mitch mcconnell is not naive. he understands that him appearing alongside president biden is sort of a boost to the president as he wants to make the year 2023 about bipartisanship and contrast with a republican-led house that is largely going to be focused on investigations and it's ali -- was laying out, to dealing with their own internal divisions. i think it speaks to that divide within the republican party, mitch mcconnell has always been focused on doing what we can to retain or regain in this case the republican majority. i think he's sending a signal to members of his caucus but there are areas on popular initiatives like the unofficial hour you can show that he voted for, as mcconnell did, and take credit for it in his case. but also at times, there are

gonna be clear examples where you want to establish distance with the current president. it's a very interesting visit. it all speaks to a very interesting political year ahead for this president. as he's also going to be focused on not just implementing the enforcer to lob another big legislative wins like the chips act, the inflation reduction act. we will get within a minute talking about is a political future potentially as well. >> let's talk about the real quick. go ahead. >> so you play that sun for the president a bit earlier. we haven't seen much of him here in saint ditch -- 50 he's been on the island, having a bit of an r and r. he has said that during the course of the holidays, he intended to have some conversation with his family or whether he will indeed run for reelection. it's important to note that as i am hearing from my sources, these conversations are much more informal and sort of ad hoc than they were four years ago when he had a much bigger set than with the family to discuss running against

president trump. the president had some fun at the expense of reporters who asked about this saying hey, i didn't even know this election coming. and indication of his four your mind at sea and since time here in st. -- >> mike memoli, thank you so much. switching gears. right now in new york city, investigators are digging into the background of the man they say attacked three police officers with a machete. and ypg releases picture of the weapon recovered from the scene. the three officers injured last night are expected to recover. the suspect, also treated for injuries after being shot by police. this all unfolded just blocks away from times square about two hours before midnight. joining me now is nbc's kathy park. kathy, what are they saying that the suspect this hour? do police also view this as a targeted attack? >> yeah, so lindsay, obviously the investigation is really kicking off. several law enforcement sources telling abc news that the suspect, first of all, -- 19 year old trevor big furtive wells main. we just know that fbi agents

are at his home right now. officials are also saying that does have a criminal history but he was known to law enforcement because of his social media posting. right now authorities are looking into whether a previous posts of jihadist running online maybe winked before he came here to new york city. to possibly target police officers. once again, lot of questions as the investigation is still ongoing. still unclear what motivated the suspect to carry out this attack. >> very concerning. kathy, park thank you so much for those updates. the suspect, arrested in connection to the murder of four university of idaho students. maybe heading back to the state as early as tuesday. brian christopher cobra starts with four counts of first degree murder and burglary. for allegedly breaking to the moscow idaho home with the intent to commit a felony, authorities say. 28-year-old is expected to waive an extradition hearing so he could be brought back to idaho to face murder charges according to his defense attorney. let's bring in nbc steve

patterson, steve, we hear investigators are pleading for tips from the public. does this mean they still don't know amino -- motive? >> when the, let's make something clear that we've come to understand. really since the beginning of this case. which may be even in stark relief know there is an arrest which is simply that we don't know the fullness of what police know. they have kept things very close to the best. it's one of the key criticisms from the very beginning of this investigation. a more directly answer the question, that doesn't necessarily mean that they don't know, at least the basics of the fullness of a motive here. what it does mean and what we've understood from police is that any more context that they can provide to prosecutors in the event of the suspected commit these murders, that would help push for a conviction is necessary information that they need to get from people who may not know more about this case. they've implied in the past that maybe the people do know more about the case.

but they've been holding it closer to the vest. i think that is the reasoning for them to continue pleading with the public. we, of course, we know a whole lot more until the details of this affidavit of release in which case that would mean the suspect needing to be transported back to idaho which could happen as early as next week and then will at least know more about the probable cause. which in a lot of cases, doesn't mean we're gonna get a whole lot. in a case in which things have been so quiet for police from investigators. that information could be huge to our understanding of what police know about a possible motive here. it's all coming out maybe as early as next week, lindsey. >> steve, what is the idaho law enforcement's response to this? >> a couple of things. one is that they unequivocal-y, absolutely believe that the suspect that is in custody is quote unquote they are man. that this suspect was not probably working with anybody else. this is the lone suspect that they have in custody. that they believe is well

enough to elise prosecute for these murders. in fact, our colleague, danny griffin, spoke to the police chief in moscow. about just this topic. i want to play some sound for you from what he said about this. listen to this. >> are there any other suspects or are you 100% certain this is your guy? >> i am certain this is our guy. >> no doubts? >> no doubts. >> what makes you so confident? >> we've gathered evidence. we'll continue to gather evidence. you pick the evidence and you follow the evidence. the evidence will tell you what you need to know. you just gotta be patient to get the answers. >> the conference -- he's also confident about the criticism that i brought up. that keeping the details quiet help contribute to bringing the suspect into custody. he did say maybe he could've a better job of letting the public know about the outside help they had, the fbi, the state resources, the dna lab.

by and large, they did the right thing. by the way, dna, thought to be the key thing, the key piece of this puzzle that help lead to an arrest and maybe moving forward into prosecution. >> wasn't just the public, it was family members who are critical of the response. we will find out more this week. steve patterson, thank you. still ahead this hour, don trump was parting it up at mar-a-lago on u.s. eve. 2023 could bring legal consequences as the special counsel of association is expected to heat up. plus new images from the vatican today as the remains of pope emeritus benedict lie in state. a live report on the funeral preparations ahead. >> it's on fire. >> some years these fun one horribly wrong from one group of people. we'll tell you about it coming up. up ♪ ♪

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of russia missile attacks on ukraine. the attack on the nation's capital of kyiv comes after a series of news emotional strikes that killed lisa ukrainians. meantime, the leaders of both ukraine and russia believe ordinary speeches. both promising victory, flattering putin just by the war calling the invasion a quote sacred duty. ukraine's volodymyr zelenskyy pushback vying to take back control of ukrainian territory. russia annexed in september. pope meredith benedict will lie in state tomorrow at the vatican. his remains will be on display at st. peters basilica until the funeral on thursday. in the meantime, the late pope has been moved to the modern -- monastery in rome. the vatican today releasing photos of benedict addressed. nbc's claudio lavanga is there. claudia, why was the monastery chosen as the resting place for the pope emeritus? >> hey, lindsey. the monastery where you've seen the body of the pope emeritus.

it is for the pope of artists has been leaving since he resigned in 2013. this is a remodelled monastery within the vatican wallace behind me. where he also died yesterday morning. the vatican apart from -- releasing the images of the body and state. they also said yesterday morning the pope francis was the first person who went to the monastery. as soon as he heard the news of the pope a meritorious. spent about half an hour there. tomorrow morning, the body of pope americas benedict 16 will be moved inside. st. peters specific where the faithful will be able to give their last full well until thursday morning when the funeral will be held in st. peters square. presided by pope francis himself. in the meantime, today, pope francis just carried out the events that were scheduled. he presided on both of them first of all in the morning. there was the math and science

and peter square. then he delivered the usual sunday angels. the prayer from the window of the people apartments overlooking st. peters square. in both locations, fluency, he praised and pay tribute to pope benedict, pope emerita spent addict 16. >> thank you. brazil is preparing to say farewell to pele. a two-day vigil for the soccer legend will begin tomorrow. at the home stadium of santos -- report made his name. on tuesday, a parade like procession will take place in the streets of santos. before pele is laid to rest in a private service. up next, what we've learned from donald trump's taxes. all talk to new york times reporter david -- who may know more about the former presidents finances. pretty much anyone else. anyone else. ust safelite. this dad and daughter were driving when they got a crack in their windshield. [smash] >> dad: it's okay. pull over. >> tech: he wouldn't take his car just anywhere...

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one member says he is optimistic about the geo -- holding trump accountable. >> i think the justice department will do the right thing. i think you will be charged. i frankly think he should be. if he is not guilty of a crime, then frankly i fear for the future this country because now every future president can say hey, here is the bar. and the bar is do everything you can to stay in power. >> earlier today, the select committee released an interactive version of its final report. the new website includes video from the hearings in an animated timeline of the capitol attack. the committee has already published transcripts for more than 150 witnesses including donald trump jr., ivanka trump, jared kushner and cassidy hutchinson. to me right now is msnbc legal analyst and former u.s. attorney barbara mcquade. she's a co-host of the sisters in law podcasting professor the university of michigan law school. barbara, the transcripts reveal a lot. we're not gonna be able to dive and everything.

in these few minutes that i have with you. ginni thomas. telling the committee that she regrets sending text messages to mark meadows. urging him toand firm with trump's election denials. that was one of the big revelations from this batch what does that tell you? >> you have to wonder whenever anyone expresses regret whether they expressed regret for what they did or whether they expressed regret for getting caught. certainly, these text messages have caused people to properly question whether her husband can be impartial and decisions that he makes about this attack on january 6th. she even acknowledged one of her messages that she was consulting with her friend and that her friend was indeed clarence thomas on the supreme court. i think that that is something we need to keep in mind as cases come before the court as they no doubt will on issues about executive privilege and other things if this case should be charged. whether clarence thomas can be a fair and impartial jurors in

this case. >> feel free, if you want to interject to anything else as it out to you from the transcripts. i know going through them. something i want to ask you about in terms of what we know went down. that now infamous motorcade event that cassidy hutchinson tested -- heated exchange between trump and hey secret service detail. former white house deputy chief of staff anthony or not attending the january 6th committee he didn't recall that happening. you tweeted suggesting that doj should bring him immunity and refresh his memory. >> the justice department has tools available to it that were either not available to the committee or that the committee showed some restraint and using. one of those is immunity. certainly the committee could've granted immunity some of these witnesses to compel testimony. and they didn't do that. leaving that option to the justice department. some of the things you just government can do is to leverage potential criminal

liability against others an exchange for cooperation. or immunized them and compel them to testify. they can refresh the recollection. they can confront them with statements that are made by other witnesses that contradict their testimony. although cassidy hutchinson herself probably can't testify about the events that occurred in the limousine in a trial because it would not be admissible under the rules of hearsay. she can lead doj prosecutors to other people who do have firsthand information. the doj can use things like phone records, compulsion orders, immunity, leverage to entice people to tell them the truth. they now because of the work of the committee have access to the information that provides those leads. >> this is just one aspect. if we kind of zoom out, what do you think the doj is likely doing right now with this entire trove of information? how much of a road map essentially is the committee offering the justice department here? >> i think it's tremendous. i think one thing is they're

likely reading like matt over the holidays. and looking for a number of things. one is comparing witness statements with their own witness statements. they probably have not interviewed as many witnesses have the committee did. some 1200 witnesses. no doubt there is some overlap. they want to compare. that did their witnesses tell the same story that they told the committee. that will be important. i think we'll be looking for leads the same way we just discussed with cassidy hutchinson. are there other people who are able to share observations that can lead them to firsthand witnesses or other evidence that they have the ability to get. such as phone records with search warrants. finally, looking for people to flip. who were the people they can charged with a crime. induce their cooperation in exchange for a reduction in sentence and work their way up the chain. there may be people like john eastman or jeffrey clark whose phones doj has already obtained. looking to see what their roles were in all of this. and then offering them an inducement in exchange for

their truthful testimony. there are a number witnesses that fit that category. i imagine a big part of the work over the holidays is to identify which witnesses they want to go after. >> gotta be curvy here. as you're talking. it feels like i'm getting the impression that you think things are really going to heat up in 2023. >> i do. i think that since egypt -- jack smith arrived he has had access to a lot of information. certainly a lot of investigation has already occurred. i think doj is running up against a little bit of a deadline now. to nobody get this case charged particular tridents an tensed before january of 2025. i think that means they've got a file charges before the first quarter of 2023. >> barbara mcquade. always good to talk to you. thank you. house democrats are calling out the irs after publishing six years of trump's taxes. trump's records show he paid 1500 dollars in taxes in 2016 and 17. i got a refund more than $5

million in 2020. the irs only audited him twice as president as opposed to doing so each year in office. which is in violation of the agency's own policy since the nixon administration. >> the year after year's relying on losses to not pay much of anything. i think americans should be greatly outraged by that. and by the failure of the irs under trump to do its job. to audit him the way they have audited other presidents. >> -- joining me now. and investigative reporter for the new york times. an msnbc contributor. david in 2019 trump's irs commissioner told congress that it's simply too difficult to audit the ultra rich. i was listening to your colleague on our air yesterday. suzanne craig. who basically said there were three of you on this for years. trying to track down some of the information. she was shocked that the irs didn't put more agents on. this is just about the irs lacking resources?

>> i think that's right. that is a big part of it. obviously, while trump was president. there's a lot of other factors that were presidencies. are they didn't, as you said, even where they're supposed to do four presidents every year. before he was president, he was just of the rich guy with a really complicated tax structure. one person who owned more than 400 different entities and put them all and it's taxes. yes, this is about a lack of resources for the irs. the irs has been starved of resources for more than ten years. they see their job not as enforcing the law evenly or trying to make sure the world's fair. but as collecting revenue. the 1:00 the most revenue they can. it seems they made the decision and it's easier to go after the low hanging fruit. those of us who make less money and follow the law. then it is to spend a lot of time trying to make sure that rich folks pay their fair share. trump's case, it seemed almost like even before he was president they threw up their hands and said who can be make heads or tails of this. >> is there any evidence to suggest that the irs was actually directed not to do these audits? >> we don't know.

we only know that they didn't do them. i think the ways and means committee made that point in their report. obviously the treasury secretary who oversees the irs was steve mnuchin. trump appointee about trump's most loyal -- even lived at the trump hotel for the first few months of his presidency. paying trump directly for his housing. they had a guy over the irs who is definitely not trying to stand apart from trump or to be independent of him. nobody said okay there was an order given on the state. don't do it. >> one of the tax records tell you about these of been safe havens for trump 12. particularly in foreign countries. >> i spent a lot of time looking into his finances. or trying to look at them from the outside. even i learned a lot from this. let's put it what i learn to big categories. first was as you looted to. how much of trump's money taxes accounts were in foreign countries. including countries like china. where trump had no discernible

for the outside. no discernible business connections. he didn't have a property in china. he had not done business in china for several years. still had an account there. i was surprised he paid more taxes in foreign countries in this country in several years. that was one thing. how much money there was an overseas countries. not just the ones we knew about what the uk where his golf courses. the other thing was we spend all this time trying to figure out what's happening with trump's golf courses. with his hotels. it's easing the presidency departments places. the one could hear that he had was not due to telegram but wall. it was to defend trump. his now long deceased father. in 2018, trump sold the last pieces of his father's new york real estate empire. and got a big capital gain. it really the only good year he had came from his father. not for himself. do >> you think anybody will look into the irs's handling of trump's taxes? >> if it's going to happen. it's gonna happen with the senate committee. senate finance committee. if they choose to spend time on this during the next couple of years from. democrats are in charge.

we may learn a bit more. the biden ministration. they may decide this for sometime on it to. i don't see the house under republican leadership caring about this at all. both because they don't want to look at a trump but also because in general. they seem to have been in favor of a week and irs on peoples increasing peoples ability to dodge taxes. >> david ferron hole, thanks for your time. appreciate it. coming, up new year's day means the end of the holiday travel rush. but what could 2023 bring forest southwest after their plane cancellation chaos. plus. we'll take a look at the people across the globe ringing in the new year with a polar plunge. h a polar plunge h a polar plunge as americans,

there's one thing we can all agree on. the promise of our constitution and the hope that liberty and justice is for all people. but here's the truth. attacks on our constitutional

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rebounding this new year's day after a week of travel chaos. thousands of canceled flights to railed holiday plans and raising a lot of questions about how southwest airlines operates. the airline promising to make some changes. about that latest ever happens again. the department transportation is also looking into the debacle. abc's antonia hylton joins us from laguardia airport. antonio, got a weaker chaos, we saw the photos of the luggage piled up in airports across the country. how are things flowing this new year's day for southwest? >> things are a lot calmer, as

you can see behind me here. there's been a steady flow of people but we are not seeing the scenes of chaos that were happening here in airports across the country just a couple days ago. with the southwest meltdown. but also with all kinds of delays and cancellations and heartbreak happening for people at such an important travel time in the year. according to the port authority of the summer 22nd. they had for the first time since 2019. since before the pandemic came. they exceeded actually the number of monthly air travelers. that gives you a sense of the resurgence of. the millions of people who are moving around. thankfully, as they all now head back to their destination between today and tomorrow. thing seems to have course created a bit. as you mentioned the trouble the lies ahead for southwest now continue. this is a federal investigation. they have a lot of work to do to make things up to their customers onesie. >> what is of the pardon transportation saying they're doing to hold the airline accountable? >> they're launching a federal investigation. they're going to be looking into the scheduling and

technology issues that our team has been reporting on all over the past week. they're also really going to be digging into whether or not southwest actually lived up to their own required customer service policies. they're gonna be keeping an eye on how they make their customers home now. the oh customers money. there are people who other bags that are still lost. then there's this question of trust and relationships. take a listen to a conversation about team had with the travel expert about what's coming next for southwest. >> there is four points that they have communicated other looking southwest to address as quickly as possible. that's first and foremost. getting people to their destinations. safely and as quickly as possible. as well as providing those reimbursements for expenses incurred due to the cancellations. that's meals, hotels. even other means of transport. they have said that that can include economy tickets and other carriers. as well as refunding passengers

that have canceled their tickets and decided to travel at all. versus getting rebooked. then lastly, getting their bags back. those are really the four points of the d.o.t. is going to hold them to. >> getting people their money and their bags back is one thing. about the trust the brand issues the relationship issues here are an entirely different thing. even as southwest makes promises to make changes and the apologize to their customers, the relationship in the trust and broken their could take months to repair or lindsey. >> months or even years. antonia hilton. thank you so much. i'm gonna bring an invests -- editor-in-chief caleb silver to talk more about this and all things economy. first, how big of a deal is this for southwest? could this do it for them? >> i don't know. airlines are like utilities. we need them when we need them. for folks to fly in those southwest hubs, we southwest airlines because the cheapest option in the most convenient.

it's very hard to switch our alliance when best on that works for you. we'll see. we always come out of the airlines around these times. guess what? we always end up booking travel with them in the future and we need to. we'll see whether there could be some harsh regulation release of punishment coming for the d.o.t. to southwest. it wasn't the only l.a. that had problems during the holiday season. this is a problem we have this integral traveling and infrastructure that's just not ready for it. that's a warning sign for the entire air travel industry. >> is there something that southwest can do to rebuild trust? >> giving money away in giving trouble coupons, that always seems to get travelers back using airline again. they're probably gonna mount a big trust campaign going into 2023 because you don't lose customers especially when folks will be pulling back from air travel and from spending money on vacations. we'll see how it goes. people have a very hard time quitting their airlines especially if they're the most convenient to them. we'll see how this plays out for southwest in the long run. >> let's talk some big picture stuff for the new year.

nbc news have some new reporting on how economists see things. especially in terms of a potential recession. nbc news reports just how painful this is what i would be depends on a variety of factors at home and abroad. including the latest covid outbreak in china. how that plays out. what steps the federal reserve takes on its path to cool inflation. and how much employers scale back their workforces. how important are each of these things. what else are you looking at? >> every single one of them. the main ingredient to watch for in terms of a recession is a slowdown -- consumer spending is 70% of our gdp here the night states. we gotta use funding to keep the wheels of the economy moving. spenders, consumer sort of pulling back a little bit november and december going into the holiday season. some of that was because retailers pushed sales forward into october. we had the actual prime day. we had tarred with some pictures and walmart. some of that is also folks worrying about creeping critic

rebalances. of about 9000 ball -- critically pr's are at a record high right now. the federal services interest rates. that means credit card a pr's go up. but barring a lot of spending a lot. if we pull back, that could be the dominant it sets a recession into full effect in 2023. >> how should the white house respond? here a member of the white house counsel economic advisers that the u.s. does have a fighting chance of avoiding recession with a soft landing on inflation. how can the white house and the fed make this work? >> really the pedal reserves responsibility because the federal reserve, our central bank, has been raising interest rates at the most aggressive pay since 1980's to cool down inflation which has been at a 40 year high. it's working but it's working very slowly. still a very high inflation. food and very high inflation in rent. energy prices have come way down. that's a big deal. the federal reserve once inflation won 2%. we're around 5% right now. there's a big gap there which means that the feds going to keep raising rates into 2023. a couple more times.

we'll see if that ends up breaking the -- that causes the pullback in spending. causes more layoffs. the labor force which has been very strong. those are the things we need to keep an eye on. >> the end of -- end of last year, we're in a new year now, the stock market was really volatile. what are you expecting this year ahead? >> it was volatile. we have a technical term for it. we call it a hot mess stock market wasn't a bear market for the good part of 2022. as a federal reserve raise interest rates in the face of inflation, it's gonna be topping for the first months of 2023 because the feds not done raising interest rates. and we still have sticky high inflation and growth is slowing. that said, year after a bear market of the stock market historically very strong. of about 30 to 40% on average historically doesn't mean it's gonna happen this year. but the rebound out of a bear market is usually pretty aggressive. wouldn't expect it to the second half of the year. as a consumer, as of investor, as a favor, a plan on that and you're getting some money in the bank right now in the bottom market so you don't have

to be all known -- i would keep an eye on the second half of the year. first half is gonna be rough. >> caleb silver, i'm sure we'll be talking plenty of times in this new year. thank you. straight ahead. highflying trouble for one group of new year's eve revelers. next hour, a man to talk to robert sermon. the democrat who lost his race to a battle incoming congressman george santos. would he think should be done as centrist repairs to take the oath of office amid calls to resign over fabrications of his resume. there's always a fresh deal on the subway app. like this one! 50% off?! that deal's so good we don't even need an eight-time all-star to tell you about it. wait what? get it before it's gone on the subway app! listen, i'm done settling. because this is my secret. wait what? i put it on once, no more touch ups! secret had ph balancing minerals; and it helps eliminate odor, instead of just masking it. so pull it in close. secret works.

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>> welcome back, i'm lindsey reiser and for yasmin vossoughian. we continue to follow the latest developments and a machete attack on a group of new york city police officers. plus the breaking news we brought you first just last hour, kevin mccarthy holding a sunday call with a gop members. just one hour. as he scrambles for the votes he needs to become speaker of the house on a vote on tuesday. it's not the only issue facing the gop as they take control of the house. they also have to figure out what to do about congressman -elect and alleged serial liar george santos. >> i think this is troubling and so many ways. certainly he has lied repeatedly. again, this is a decision whether he resigns or stays that needs to be made between he and the voters who elected him. he certainly going to have to consider resigning. >> the democrat who lost two santos certainly has some ideas about what should be done. robert cimarron joins me in a few minutes.

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