we are staying with that dramatic moment in washington. you see it live from the building behind me at the capitol with mccarthy apparently set to fall short for the second time as speaker. round two of voting. you are watching history being made. this is unprecedented. truly, nobody knows where this goes next. ali vitali, garrett haake, steve kornacki is at the big board. le ann caldwell is with us and carlos, an msnbc political analyst is joining us. just so people understand where we are, i want to ask our

control room to pull you have a live shot of the house floor. this is happening. we're about halfway through the alphabet. you see the shot of former house speaker, nancy pelosi. 14 members so far. 15 members so far have chosen somebody other than mccarthy. the vote is not final. the vote is not gavelled, however, if this holds, he will not be speaker for time number two. ali, what happens for time number three? what's the next card to play? >> that's the next question especially as you have members like chip roy of texas vowing he will still continue to hold mccarthy to a count on a whole list of concessions that he's been trying to get the leader to make over the course of the last few weeks and months. they have made inroads here. these members like roy. who chairs those committees and has prioritized for them, but especially to this idea of the motion to vacate.

it's a move that would weaken the speaker and make it easier to oust members. mccarthy holding to a compromise in his words of that being five members who could ban together to oust a speaker, but that's not what conservatives want. they want it to be one single member who could trigger that motion to vacate the chair. that's one of the sticking points here. but again, this first ballot was unsurprising. we always knew mccarthy was going to lose that one. the second one was going to be challenging, but i think the question we've been asking everyone here today is how does this end up shaking loose when both sides are dug in. conservatives like roy and others saying they're not going to vote for mccarthy. mccarthy saying he's going to stay in for as many ballots as it takes. he's willing to break records and he just may because it's not clear that the people who are never mccarthy have an off ramp here and it's not clear what

mccarthy has left to give to get these folks on his side. >> garrett, to this point, there's no siep that mccarthy will do what he did years ago and bow out so somebody else can step in. what is the jim jordan of it all? by our track, we are now up to 16 members. scott perry, for example, just voting for jim jordan for house speaker. 16 republican members of congress saying they're not going to back mccarthy. consolidating them behind jordan, which is different than what we saw in the first ballot when we had the lee zeldins. what is the jordan factor here? it is worth noting his speech nominating mccarthy for this second round ballot was largely a speech touting what the republicans in congress can do next. less so about the many merritts of a mccarthy as house speaker. >> i think at the end of the day, if jordan wanted to be speaker of the house, there were more direct ways to do this.

and he has told anyone who will listen since the moment the controls took control of the lower chamber, he doesn't want to be speaker. he wants to be chairman of the judiciary committee. a job that he's more suited. he wants the gavel. he wants to lead investigations. he doesn't want to be building consensus and trying to figure out how to pass or not pass a spending bill or the debt ceiling. that's not what jim jordan does. i think what we're seeing are the anti mccarthy forces looking to make sure in this second vote, they don't gasoline any support. and then perhaps the alternative is much more palatable to at least the sort of right half of the republican conference than was biggs. biggs was never going to get the job. jordan is theoretically more popular and if you're the conservative rebel faction, you think, okay, maybe we peel off a mccarthy vote or two by jordan,

but at least we don't lose anybody and we show mccarthy we're not budging. that's been the point these rebels have made including chip. he said he's not going anywhere. and that he's not blinking just the same thing that mccarthy has said. so we're in a situation where the irresistible force and immovable object. this could go until somebody drops from exhaustion. >> we're in for potentially hours if not days of this because here's the thing. we're waiting to see how keith self is going to vote. he was number 19 in the previous ballot. we've got 18 members so far by our count who have again without the vote being gavelled and final yet, who have backed somebody other than mccarthy on the republican side. we're status quo, garrett. nothing's changed. second ballot looks like the first did. again, like, what is going to

change for the third? there's going to be a time period where people can go and change their vote. it's that open vote situation. the fourth gavel. everyone's going to chitchat. we saw mccarthy put on a smile and shake hands and talk to some kids and by all appearances, at least, try to show like he's in a pretty great mood about all this. we saw conferring between he and jim jordan. what happens that's going to change the game? >> that's going to depend on jordan. if i was the cspan director who controls these cameras, i would keep one on jordan at all times. >> and keith self has just voted for jordan. >> as he did the first time around. >> now we're 19 for 19. no bleeds, no adds,no gains. everything's basically the same until the vote closes the first time. >> that's right. what jordan's got to do in the next hour or so is do what he didn't do between the first and second vote, which is to tell

people if you voted for me, stop. and vote for mccarthy instead. jordan is probably the only person who can whip some of these pro jordan, anti mccarthy votes in mccarthy's favorite. he clearly can't move all of them. chip roy, matt gaetz, they're not going to vote for kevin mccarthy because jordan says so or at all. but some of these folks like a keith self, a new member replacing a member who was forced out due to personal scandal in north texas in the last congress, some of these folks like self of bobert, it's not hard to imagine could be moved by jordan. i was fighting for conservative principle, but i'm with jim jordan all the way. that's the potential way out of here. and i think we'll learn a lot about you know, how much jordan wants to get to work as being chair of the judiciary committee or not in the next 90 minutes. >> steve, let me dip over to you

at the big board. keeping track of the map and the numbers. we know where the numbers stand and it is deja vu from the last 90 minutes previously for now. >> here's the list. these are the 19 republicans who on the first ballot voted for somebody other than mccarthy. as you just mentioned, moments ago, keith self of texas. he completes 19 for 19. they all voted for somebody other than mccarthy again and they all this time voted for as you said, the same person. jim jordan. on that first round of balloting, biggs, who had been nominated, got ten votes. jordan got six. then three random ones. harris from maryland voted for zeldin from new york. harris voted for jordan this time. all ten of the biggs voters including biggs himself voted for jordan. all six of the jordan voters the first time around heard jordan deliver a nominating speech for

mccarthy for the second ballot and turned around and voted for jordan again anyway. so 19 votes now for jordan. they are completing alphabetically the final tally. mccarthy's going to fall well short again. you're going to have jeffries, the democrat, actually have more votes on this ballot than mccarthy. nowhere near the majority for jeffries. as garrett was saying, jordan looms large in terms of is he really going to dig in here for mccarthy and can he sway some of these members? but you're getting indications that, not all 19, but they're just so dug in and mathematically, when your starting point for republicans is 212 and if you're mccarthy, you just cannot afford that many defections here. took about five minutes i think in this vote for the first five defections to come up to put him at 217. so the math is just extremely

narrow when you're starting point is 222 and you're seeing again the fact that they couldn't make any inroads. i was looking at andy harris in particular because that vote for lee zeldin, zeldin probably one of the more moderate names that was put out there, made me think maybe that's somebody mccarthy could win over in the second ballot. i was looking at the republicans who voted for jordan. were any swayed by his appeal for mccarthy? none, none, none. 19 votes there for jim jordan. again, the territory this puts us in historically, this, as you are watching, the 15th time in history that a vote for house speaker has gone beyond the first ballot. it is the first time in literally 100 years. >> 13 before the civil war, steve. >> yeah, most of them were. 1923, the modern congress if you want to call it that. this is the only time in the quote unquote modern congress. and we are now heading into this territory. we've had a few that have gone

into three. we're headed towards a third ballot here. something you haven't seen since 1847. robert winthrop of massachusetts won on the third ballot. yeah, to me, the most significant thing here looking through it was right, were there any ground made up here that mccarthy on the second vote. there's none. if there's any silver lining for mccarthy, nobody voted for him on the first ballot and slipped over and defected. but he is still well, well short here of the numbers he needs. >> so then mccarthy is going to be approaching and frankly the entire membership of the house of representatives will be approaching a fork in the road because if this vote holds, want to be careful about that language here, and these 19 members of the republican party do not vote for mccarthy, there will be a choice to be made. vote to go into recess or a third ballot. we saw not even an hour ago, mccarthy got folks to go right

into the next ballot. do we know what's going to happen this time? what are we hearing from sources as this plays out? >> we don't know yet. sources close to mccarthy and people who are allies of his say that it's better to wear these people out. that is their strategy right now. to try to wear the defectors out. but that's an interesting strategy considering most of these people have spent their entire careers in congress not being worn out. they are not the ones who tend to compromise. they're not the ones who try to reach across the aisle or even reach to moderates to try to find common ground. they are the opposition in the congress and where getting worn out is not something they do. but this seems to be mccarthy's only strategy at this point. it's also interesting how mccarthy has been talking about these members which we know is 19 today. the tone has shifted.

>> it's shifted dramatically. leading up to the midterm elections and even after, he said the party has never been more united than it has been before. so now it's obviously not united but today, mccarthy is drawing this clear distinction between those who are supporting him and these others. he's saying they are the ones blocking the people's agenda. the ones blocking the republican agenda and the ones blocking progress. so he's really pitting these two sides against each other publicly. this is what he's telling reporters instead of trying to pull them into the table. so it's an interesting strategy. doesn't seem to be working and evidence has shown it's not working since two rounds now he's gotten the same round of no votes. he has persuaded no one. >> we're going to listen in as the second ballot wraps.

let's listen in. >> the reads clerk will call the names of the representatives legislate who did not answer the first call of the

delora. jeffries. gallego. jeffries. smith from nebraska.

mccarthy. webster from florida. mccarthy. >> you've been listening to the members who didn't vote in the first. the vote is going to be held open until it's gavelled. if the numbers hold, it looks similar to what we saw in the first round of voting for the house speakership with 19 republicans voting against mccarthy for that position. it means he is on track to lose

again for the second ballot. the question becomes what next. nobody seems to know the answer to that, ali vitali, especially when you have congressman roy saying moments ago, i'm not blinking. well, if he's not blinking, mccarthy's not blinking. that's a lot of blinks going to be seeing on capitol hill for who knows how long. >> everyone is in a staring contest at this point and that's the problem, frankly. as i was talking with lawmakers today, even privately, they acknowledge that someone is going to have to back down and in this instance, what's fascinating is the fact that you look at the vote remaining the same, but the fact that the other has coalesced around jordan, a man who is a house freedom caucus superstar. he is someone who that conservative conference would love to see as speaker. he's also someone who in this balloting round, nominating kevin mccarthy. he has urged his colleagues to vote for mccarthy. jim jordan has been clear that all he wants to do is be the

chair of the judiciary committee, which he's set to go once they actually pick a speaker here, so for jim jordan, now i think the open question is can he start moving votes and not just on the floor, but as he's talking to his colleagues one-on-one because right now, you're right. everyone is so entrenched. i will also say as you're watching these proceedings and we'll go again for a third ballot and we'll see this again. democrats really seem to be enjoying themselves. talking to them before this, many of them were relishing the idea that this was a moment where democrats were in array and republicans were the ones who are in complete chaos. they are really clearly having a good time here as all of them continue to vote for jeffries. some of them have joked with me that they are the happiest group of people ever entering a minority party because they are so united in not just what they want to do pushing policy, which at this point, you know that's going nowhere because they lack the votes to push it and because it's a period of divided

government, but they are all united in their opposition to the republicans. so that's really a moment and if i think about the color that our producer is sending from inside the chamber, apparently just in the last few minutes, one republican said mccarthy for the win and a democrat yelled back, i doubt it. so they're clearly playing this game. some tweeting they were showing up with popcorn. democrats enjoying this moment right now as republicans really do showcase the fact that there are deep skiz ms within their party right now that are being aired very, very publicly. the question is how long this still goes on. mccarthy, as you said, not backing down. this is where the back door dealings have to pick up. >> let me bring in somebody who knows this floor well because he served on it for many years congressman, thank you for being with us. give me your sense of what's going down? i assume you're in touch with folks who are still in and around this building.

what can you tell us? >> good news and bad news for mccarthy. obviously, he did not gain any supporters, but importantly, he did not lose any supporters. some of these people that are challenging mccarthy were hoping on a second ballot, they would start leading and they could take advantage of that. mccarthy supporters are showing to be resilient and strong. they think they can wear down these freedom caucus members, but as ali said, that's going to be difficult. something else to look at that no one is paying much attention to is what do democrats do? do they at some point conclude it's better to have a wounded mccarthy as speaker rather than have this go on for days. do democrats stay in the chamber? some telling me maybe they'll start leaving the chamber, reducing that number for

mccarthy. john boehner did that at the beginning of the 114th. >> what is the incentive for democrats to do that? right? that doesn't seem, what's the logic there? >> well, one scenario that some people have pointed to is that perhaps at some point, centrist democrats and republicans start looking for alternative choices. people other than mccarthy and jeffries. someone who can get elected with bipartisan support. that's something that's not good for either republican leadership or democratic leadership so at some point, democrats right reach that conclusion. again, this is not likely. it's not something i'm predigiting, but it's something those supporting mccarthy are looking at as a possibility. >> let me bring back in brendan buck who has seen this go down, has worked in leadership staffs plural when there has been a bit of messy drama to say the least. >> look, we talked a lot about

jim jordan and i really do think that he is sort of the lynch pin of what happens at this point. at some point, something has to change. i think that needs negotiating. jim jordan probably has to be the emissary to these folks who are now voting for him. he's the most powerful person in this situation. otherwise, the strategy on both sides is to just wear people out and literally tire your colleagues and that's just a bizarre place to be. you're not going to wear people out in a day or even two days. you're going to need to do this for days if you want to wear them out. someone has to start cutting deals and it feels like jordan is the person who's going to be able to cut those deals. >> what does a deal look like though? >> probably revolves around representation on certain committees. >> hasn't mccarthy been doing that for weeks?

>> exactly. that's the problem. these people have not exactly demonstrated they want to be negotiated with. he's had a tough time find anybody to have a conversation with about these things. if i knew anything about the freedom caucus, they love the move the goal posts. so it feels like this could go on for a long time because you have a mccarthy whose strategy is built on longevity versus a group of people who have nothing better to do. it's what they've staked their credibility on is wanting to stick it out and they don't care they're upsetting their colleagues. they've spent their entire time in congress trying to blow up the plans of the rest of the conference. this is a group that professes to want to be very bottom up. they say whatever the conference wants to do rather than leadership should be the direction we go. in this situation, they're going to opposite direction. badly outnumbered.

that's classic for the freedom caucus to change on whims on whatever is good for them in the moment. >> at what point is there a game changing potential deal made here? in other words, how many more ballots might we see where it's status quo before somebody tries to make a move to shake things up? >> you can look at is steve scalise. he's someone who obviously is supported by the middle. the republican conference and has more credibility than mccarthy with these hard right members. now i think some of them won't vote for him either but if he can show more strength, if some of these members start announcing well, we won't support mccarthy, but as a compromise, we'll support someone like steve, he is someone who could ascend very quickly. they play nice together, but there's also been an underlying rivalry there for quite a few years. they are allies, but not necessarily close friends. so he's someone to watch very

carefully as people start looking for an off ramp to this chaos we're seeing unfold in the house. >> ali, if that were to happen, and remind people where mccarthy was back in 2015, 2016, when this similar fight was going down. >> mired in a different position in the caucus. jordan wasn't on his side at that point. i think brendan is right. the goal posts have seemed to move here multiple times. i think one of the key takeaways from this morning as we heard people like scott perry and lauren bobert talking about their conversations with mccarthy, it seems like they brought an all or nothing mentality, which is not what it

takes to negotiate. i think what's fascinating watching the ways they've moved the goal posts, mccarthy has taken a publicly nonconciliatory posture towards these parts of the caucus. even in the closed door meeting this morning, it was tense. they got into it over rules with certain members including chip roy. mccarthy then coming out to reporters and making clear he thinks he has earned this position. it's something he said to his conference privately but of course echoing it now publicly. in terms of what you're seeing on the floor there, right now, we're looking at democrats who are huddled and -- >> an interesting moment here, right? the former house speaker. the leader of the dragt party. the top leadership members. you have to wonder what it's like to be a fly on the wall there. >> exactly. and clyburn just walked out of chamber. hallie caught up with him and

asked what he thought of what was going on. he shook his head and laughed. democrats are more than happy to have this be the american public's first impres of what it's like for republicans to have control of this chamber. >> what about the scenario the congressman raised. the idea that democrats may ultimately in a matter of days tire of this and start to work some of the more moderate dems with republicans to put forward some surprise consensus candidate. give us the reporting perspective. are you hearing any chatter on that? >> it peoples really farfetched for the reason you laid out. why do democrats want to help republicans out of this moment? yes, there's a widespread view here that congress should work. that electing leadership should be somewhat simple, but at the same time, mccarthy himself and of course the scenario you're talking about probably wouldn't have mccarthy in it, but he

himself has said he's not going to makeovertures to democrats and instead, he has sort of used this specter of the idea that some republicans could make this so difficult by votes present for example, which would lower the magic number. mccarthy is using this as a bogeyman of sorts to say that perry and some members of the freedom caucus might help someone like jeffries get elected speaker if they were to vote present or take their objections further. that's one of the things they're trying to use to cobble the votes to push people, to get them to blink. it hasn't worked so far and i think that's why we're just waiting to see what ultimately breaks this gridlock loose because nothing that has been going on so far is going to do that or has. >> michael steele is joining us now. and michael, it is as we have made the point i think on our air and as many people have

noticed, this is the republican civil war writ large. if republicans say during the midterm cycle here had had candidates who were more palatable to a broader electorate period, mccarthy would have a bigger majority and wouldn't need to worry about these defectors. >> yeah, that's true. that's just reality and it's what he's got to lie in because they didn't have those qualify candidates. they didn't have the people in place who could help get that supermajority he's bragging about. this is a bed that mccarthy's made. he's fighting with his caucus on the day of the vote. 19 now against him. where does this go? his reality is stark right now. and you can sit there and say it will go to 133 votes, which is the record. do we know that's not happened. so where does he cut further

deals with people who don't want to cut a deal with him. because if they did -- >> brendan, to the point michael's making here, the time frame negotiations have been happening. we've seen that since november at this point with mccarthy long desiring to be in the position that he is now running for and now for at least one ballot losing, poised to lose for a second. we'll see what happens with the third. looking like lie that not much will change, at least not that we know of or can report out just yet. >> this is incredibly frustrating to watch as a republican. this is a new majority that you should be celebrating. there's a time and a place to sort this out and they had that time and place to sort it out. it's a closed door conference meeting where people put up different candidates and vote for who their speaker should be and they did that. and kevin mccarthy won overwhelmingly, but instead of going along with the views of their conference, they're making

a mockery of the house of representatives. a party that just suffered a really bad election. almost didn't win back the house in what should have been a landslide and it's because people don't think it's a serious party that can get things done. and what is it doing on the first day? proving it to be true. when the this isn't a debate about issues. it's about petty grievances and silly rules changes. it's about weakening the speaker so they can be stronger and get on tv more. it's ridiculous. i'm frustrated watching this on the house floor. we're probably going to be doing it for a long time. it's an important institution. an important position. i care deeply about the speakership and i think it should be taken more seriously. >> let's remind folks why this is so critical. number one, nothing else is get done. until there's a house speaker, we've talked about it. it's worth reminding folks,

they're done. they can't do anything until this gets finished. so no governing, no work until this is wrapped up. that is the individual who decides in many ways what to bring to the floor. what is going to be the focus of investigatory committees. the speaker has a lot of power into what becomes the law of the land. that's why this matters. this isn't just beltway drama. there's a real world implication to this and i wonder if that's part of your clearly evident frustration with the way this process has gone down so far. >> enormous responsibility of running a legislature. we talk about the big conflicts that happen. but there are all kind of things to keep a government running that's important. not to mention the speaker of the house is second in line to the president. they have to fund the government. they have to increase the debt ceiling. but there's all kind of other policy stuff that's going to come up throughout the year. are they going to be able to

authorize our military for example? my god, if there was some type of crisis, would they be able to step in and do what is needed to respond? we have reauthorization of the federal aviation, the farm bill is about to expire. there are all kind of stuff you have to be doing. they haven't started committees. they can't introduce bills. usually you have your committees already in place. you have committees, chairman elected. they have hired their staff. they know their first hearings, the first bills they're going to do. they haven't even been able to elect chairman because they wanted to wait until this was revolved. this could be months because you have a handful of people who want it their way despite the fact the overwhelming majority of their conference disagrees. >> ali, there's a lot going down we can't see visibly on the cameras we have available to us from the chamber there. give us a sense of what's

happening and what you're seeing and our team, which is spread out across the building is reporting. >> exactly. which is why you see me looking down as often as i do because that is the life blood of how we communicate here on capitol hill. these are the conversations we're having now with members as 245i leave the floor because many are trying to eat lunch and figure out what these next steps are and the general consensus we're hearing, if they are in the not mccarthy group, they say they're holding fast. that could mean it doesn't get done today. it could mean at some point, they do a motion to adjourn, which means they take a pause and some back. >> a pause. that's an option if the majority of the house of represent i haves chooses that. >> that's right because even there is a gamble.

there's also a school of thought that says the more time you give people, the harder that makes it for mccarthy because it could give people more time to coalesce around someone else. i know we're looking at a screen that says jordan got 19 votes, but really he's not the person who people talk about as a likely successor if mccarthy were to fail. the name i hear even is steve scalise, the number two house republican. i asked him about this this morning. he laughed me off. i asked mccarthy about it this. he certainly laufed me off, but privately, there are some aides and members who say if mccarthy can't get the numbers he needs, scalise could be another choice if mccarthy were to drop out or if something major were to happen. i think important thing to underscore and you and i have

talked about this over the last few weeks as we've watched him try to negotiate to 218, is it's hard to beat mccarthy with no one and that's why what name we put on the other line is so important. because on this second ballot, all we saw was the same 19 people who didn't vote for mccarthy coalescing around jordan. jordan says he doesn't want this job. what's goeng to be interesting is if they go to a third ballot, if he ends up losing more votes, that's going to be a big tell and that's going to be a sign that there might be bigger problems here. so it really all remains to be seen and why we've been seeing so many shrugs from lawmakers today. >> it's not often on capitol hill where we truly, reporters, lawmakers, members of the public, can say there's really no plan b. we don't know the plan c and d.

contingency plans are oftentimes the stuff of what lawmakers have to deal with. in this case, there's no playbook. since 1923, we haven't seen this happen. so congressman, at what point do the dug in allies of mccarthy, staff, people close to him et cetera, say to him, hey, listen, writing's on the wall. we're not seeing these numbers move. >> that's right. it's going to be mccarthy allies who make that call. who push him into that position and i do think that something that would trigger that is if he starts losing support on these subsequent votes. if the number of decenters grows from 19 to 30 to 35. if the movement is in the wrong direction, that is going to empower mccarthy's lieutenants to go to him and say this isn't going to work out. we need to find a way to save face. we need to find a way to stop embarrassing our party.

what really stands out to me today is the juxtaposition, the unity on the democratic side of the aisle. not even nancy pelosi would get unanimous support for speaker the way jeffries is getting. democratic leadership just went through an entire transition of their leadership team without any kind of chaos or any kind of fanfare. then look at the juxtaposition with republican leadership in the senate where you have mitch mcconnell becoming the longest serving leader in congressional history, at the least in senate history. the steadyness and stability of mcconnell juxtaposed to what we're seeing from house republicans today. but at the end of the day, this is not new. this is what john boehner and paul ryan went through. not in such a dramatic way, but this is really the culmination of a lot of the chaos that has been the house republican conference for the last decade or so. it's very obvious and dramatic

today that this has been a part of the conference's dna for quite some time now. >> let me go to brendan buck who lived through that. that does feel i think different from the perspective of a political reporter covering this. does it feel different to you, somebody who's lived it? >> this is remarkable. of course it's built around the fact there's such a small majority and these dynamics have existed for years and years. that's ultimately i think what it's coming to a head. this is 12 years of frustration between leadership type folks and it had far right. the distrust that's existed and they're finally taking their shot at it and there's been reporting that they wanted to take a shot at paul ryan. they obviously came close to using a motion to vacate against boehner and challenged him on the floor a few time, but it's remarkable to actually see it in place and like everybody else, i don't know what's going to happen, but i can tell you no person is going to be able to emerge as the alternative until mccarthy makes that decision.

anybody who tries to put themselves up as a candidate against him is just asking for trouble because those people, kevin mccarthy allies aregoing to take him out. it's going to have to be mccarthy coming to a conclusion that he's had enough. the hard part he can say i'm going to be tough. but it's mccarthy who has to suffer the indignity time and time again of having somebody vote against him. i understand at this point they are trying to bring some people into some closed rooms, have some conversation, see what's possible because the third vote is going to be really, really important. really important. now if we're still stuck after the third vote, nobody's moving, they may vote a couple more times and give up for the day and come back tomorrow, but if mccarthy loses votes on the third ballot, that's really tough. really tough. if he gains ballots, that could

be a really good sign for him. >> looks like a third ballot, ali, is where we're headed. looks as though the house is not near a recess anytime soon. >> seems likely at this point. again, it's early in the day. as i talked to many of these lawmaker this is morning, they knew they were in for a long day, potentially a long few days. it looks like they're going to give it another go. right now, they are going the final tallies on the second ballot. no change in those numbers for mccarthy, although jordan did earn those 19 votes. different from the first ballot. i think the question again we have all been talking about is if anything changes on this third ballot. as you see people on the screen.

colleagues just all talking together. some of our colleagues off of the house floor talking with the key members who are against mccarthy on this. people like bob good, chip roy. others who are vowing they will not back down from their positions. and so as we start what is likely to be the third ballot here, the open question is going to be if this third bat lot will look exactly like the second one did. one member in the jim jordan camp seemed to say that was a ballot that happened without any talking or whipping of people who might want to vote for jordan. so that was someone who was trying say maybe mccarthy could lose more votes. >> right. >> back to what i was saying earlier, if that happens, that could really change the dynamic here. it could show that these hard yeses may be aren't as hard as people thought they were. again, we don't know anything until they go to another ballot. for now, we have no reason to expect that the next ballot is

going to look any different until it does. >> and to the point that we're making here that it looks like all signs are pointing to another vote, you've got the whip's office telling lawmakers another vote is expected soon. to stay close and remain near the floor. mark murray is joining us now. that's important. right? because democrats got to hang together on this to keep it difficult for republicans here. >> that's right. and as former congressman carlos was just mentioning, democrats have been the ones who have been united. there's been no dissension. that's remarkable. what i have to think is like take a step back. this is a ceremonial process. this is the easiest part of governing. the first day of congress. it's back to school day. you have the swearing ins and house republicans can't get to this stage.

we are going to see over the next year, heading into the 2024 presidential election, really tough votes happening on debt limit. on keeping government funded. on other kind of authorizations and the house republicans can't find the vote here. i just want to emphasize brendan buck's frustration he's had his party because when you look at what is supposed to be a ceremonial day, even if mccarthy is able to be victorious on a fourth, fifth, or sixth vote, it just puts him in such a weak position for those future, tougher battles that lie ahead. >> you make a noteworthy point. it's a day and how many we've covered, every time a new congress comes in. come in, everybody gets sworn in then they go like celebrate a little bit. maybe go back to districts, come back get to work. this is a paralysis of the body that is supposed to be doing the governing work of the nation.

>> that's right. we can't ignore the human aspect of all of this. this is a very special day. particularly for new members. a lot of them take their children on the floor. my two daughters were there when i first got sworn in. it's very special. the children are able to watch their fathers and mothers get sworn in to congress then people have receptions usually in their new offices with their families, friends, people from back in the district. there are a lot of people in washington, d.c. hoping to have that moment to celebrate and it probably isn't going to happen. at least not for a while. so there's a human aspect to all of this that's also very sad and weighs down what used to be even in more recent times where there's been a lot of partisanship and where congress hasn't been the most pleasant place. this day has always been special. always pleasant. this year will be an exception. >> let's take a look at some of these conversations on the house

floor and we may be getting close to a final gavel on this and we'll see what happens if there's a third vote. something that hasn't happened in 100 years. you talked about the fact that perhaps there are those pulling folks behind closed doors. give us a sense of what it's like where we can't see. help us ups what that's like. zbr first of all, it's important to appreciate that this isn't a new process for mccarthy. he's been, i imagine he's probably had a spread sheet. i'm confidence he's had a spread sheet with the name of every member of the republican conference. how likely they are to support him. he's had a whip team who's been working on these people for months. are you going to be with kevin or kevin? at some point, you know who the holdouts are. but he has a whip team. who know, okay, maybe this person's from florida. who in that state does he respect? who is her ally on her

committee? let's get that person talking to the right person. let's figure out -- it's an information gathering session as much anything. it's used to identify what someone's looking for. what's in play for them. and then maybe you can bring mccarthy in and have that conversation with him. what's challenging is they didn't know who was going to vote no and there's not one unified thing they're asking for. who's a hard no? who's in play? bring a trusted person to talk to them about it. not just your leadership staff. i'm sure there's some leadership staff working on it, too, but mccarthy has a lot of allies and they're using their relationships across the conference to get as much information as they can, bring it back to a central place and figure out what kind of deals with they make. it's very fluid. it's layered. what's a kevin mccarthy conversation versus a staff conversation and it goes on and

on like that and you start picking off one at a time. >> let me bring this ryan nobles who covered capitol hill for us. what are you hearing if this drags into the night? >> one of the things to keep in mind is what mccarthy's strategy is here and one of the things he said when he emerged from that meeting this morning was that he promised he feels willing to stay in this fight as long as it takes. he referenced this lengthy speech, more than eight hours, to try to stand in the way of a democratic spending package. that could be part of the strategy here. something that's of concern for the strategists is that he just needs a majority of the people in the room when the vote happens and if people start to trickle off, decide they aren't interested in this, they don't have a dog in this fight. there's 435 members and not all

of them are as invested in this as perhaps the people most centrally connected to it. and many of them have family in town. they have events. meetings with donors that we may see a few members trickle out and not come back and that could impact the numbers on both sides. now, it's important to point out -- >> it would need to be like 20 members that would trickle out and not come back. a handful won't matter. it's got to be a decent number or the numbers have to get better for mccarthy. >> and the point is that democrats have a lot less vested in this than republicans do now because it is the republicans that have got to figure this out and for the most part, democrats are just playing irritant here. none of them actually believe that there's going to be some sort of scenario that plays out with jeffries as the next speaker of the house. they understand the reality of that situation. so to convince them to stay here basically just to drive republicans crazy, that might be a difficult ask as time goes on into the night. that being said, this isn't an

immediate problem. this isn't something democrats are worried about in this current moment, but it's something to keep in the back of our minds as this gets later on into the night. if we're talking about 10:00, 11:00 at night, i think the question is going to come, is it worth it for democrats it for d assembles here just to deny kevin mccarthy the speakership. >> i want to try and clean up the story line or a discussion point some people have been dancing around a little bit here, because to me members of congress are used to late nights. 11:00, midnight, who cares, right? it's the first day of the new congress, and does that matter? i think some folks would have a tough time if democrats said i am beat, let me get sleep and make it easier for republicans in the new congress? maybe some democrats want to go and catch some sleep or get back

home or do whatever, and i just want to understand and clarify for our viewers and myself, frankly, is this a possibility or is this something that is based on something that we are hearing being reported out? >> what i am hearing is it's a concern that democrats have as this goes on. there are not -- >> got it. thank you. >> this is more along the list of things to keep in the back of your mind. this is something to keep in the back of your mind. >> sure. >> and we are talking about all the possible things that could happen in the next couple of hours, and this could be why you may join a group of democrats to join a group of republicans to adjourn and reset it and come back tomorrow. democrats could be willing to help mccarthy out. when you are listing off the lists of possibilities, that's

where kevin mccarthy could find democratic allies, because they are not as invested in this as he might be and they could continue the conversation into another day, and it could help them if it's still something we are talking about tomorrow morning. it's establishing the playing ground we are working on right now, and what that could mean if it moves into a third, fourth, fifth ballot here as it goes into the night. >> yeah, and no house democrat is going to help out kevin mccarthy today, a congressman just tweeted out. let me go back to you on the question of the moment, and ryan, maybe a procedural question. typically the vote will gavel shut a period of time after the roll call is over, after the tally is over. we're probably getting close to that, right, ryan? do we know why that has not happened yet? it seems like we are getting

close to that moment. >> can you hear me? >> yeah, go ahead. >> we saw this play out on the first ballot. the clerk and everybody that is up there, they are just double-checking the numbers and making sure that what lines up with the count they took in realtime matches up with the count they took and they will read it out and gavel it out. it's just a process of moving through that to make sure that they are double and triple checking the vote count before they move on to the next round. >> congressman, sorry to cut you off but i wanted to clarify that point. give us your sense of things as you listen to this conversation? >> when members leave the floor and have time to have more intimate private conversations, they get creative and they start getting impatient and start looking for other alternatives. mccarthy wants to keep everybody

on the floor as long as possible, and of course, late tonight they will have to likely recess because some people want to go to sleep, and some members physically are going to be exhausted and will need to get some rest, but mccarthy and his allies, and i have been in contact with a few of them as we are talking at this hour, and they want to keep people on the floor and they think the more pressure on these members the more likely it is they can get the result they want. again, i think something to watch is democrats. there's precedent for this. john boehner was aided by democrats in 2015. he did not have 218 votes and he got elected speaker. some democrats elected to go to a funeral instead of being on the house floor and embarrassing boehner, and this could go in many directions as members get tired. there are still personal relationships in congress. kevin mccarthy does have friends on the democratic side of the

aisle. i think we have to keep all of these things on the radar and not assume everybody is going to do the same thing over and over. >> we are seeing kevin mccarthy on the house floor hoping clearly people will remain on the floor. we saw a shot of scalise a moment ago, and the question is if it goes to a third ballot, how does it play out? does anything change or do the numbers remain what they have been all afternoon, 212 for hakeem jeffries, and 202 for kevin mccarthy. we will stay in the live rolling coverage that sets the scene for you as we head into the next hour. we have yet another hour with nicole wallace with "deadline white house" right after the break. ♪are you ready♪

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hi, everybody. it's 4:00 in new york. we will get right to it, an event unprecedented in modern american history. for the first time in 100 years, the vote for perspective house speaker does not need just a second ballot but probably a third and maybe many more than that. nobody, not even the people on the screen knows what will happen next. kevin mccarthy