hi, everybody. it's 4:00 in new york. we will get right to it, an event unprecedented in modern american history. for the first time in 100 years, the vote for perspective house speaker does not need just a second ballot but probably a third and maybe many more than that. nobody, not even the people on the screen knows what will happen next. kevin mccarthy has played

footsie with his far right colleagues. now because mccarthy is quarreling with that same group today does not mean he is resembling a moderate. it does not change the fact that right now in humiliating public fashion, kevin mccarthy is clawing and scraping his way -- he hopes -- to the speakership, trying desperately to halt what looks like at this hour, at lee, a runaway train. it's where we begin today with some of our favorite reporters and friends. nbc news senior correspondent, garrett hague, covering the action. and former stpho claire mccaskill is here, and claire

and david are both msnbc contributors. ferret, what is happening now? >> right now we are seeing the third vote get ready to take place here, and this one will have kevin mccarthy introduced by steve scalise and placed in nomination by steve scalise, and for the second time in a row, you have people that could be foes to mccarthy, placing his name in nomination. the last round we saw with jim jordan, and far more popular on the right wing of the conference, and scalise bridges the divide between the right wing and the center of the conference. they backed mccarthy to the hilt to this point. we are uncharted territory here, at least for anybody younger than 100 years old, and that's the last time we found ourselves in a situation where the speaker was not collected on the first ballot, and how they support him in the days and potentially many days to come here could be

pivotal in seeing if he can overcome this group of 19 or not. this vote is pivotal because we will see if mccarthy starts to bleed support, or if some of them want to give in and go home. >> the republicans who voted against mccarthy on the first ballot, andy biggs, michael cloud, eli crane, matt gaetz, mary miller, ralph norman, scott perry, matt rosendale, and there's one individual here whose family i met because they disavowed him is paul gosar, and they described january 6th as a

tourists day, and there were others active in the coup plot so much that they are under doj scrutiny and that applies to scott barry and a few others. what ideologically binds the 19? >> not much, nicole. ideology is a strong word for anything that might connect that group. they are certainly pro trump even in the modern republican conference, and ralph norman, one of the members you didn't mention was the one who texted mark meadows about the martial law, and they are the fridge 9% or so of the republican party in the house, and their list of demands for kevin mccarthy is kind of all over the place.

some want committee assignments, and some want legislation that would ban the federal income tax to get a vote. they are all over the place. the thing that really unites them is they are not particularly interested in the preserving the institution of the house. they want what they want and as they are showing on the floor right now, they are willing to rhetorically burn the place down to prove that point. >> what do they want, garrett? >> again, there's no way to speak for all 19 of them. some want committee assignments where they get good seats for investigating joe biden and his allies. somebody votes on things like a boder plan that would restore building the wall or getting rid of the federal income tax, and some want to change the rules for one member of the republican side to call for a removal of the speaker of the house so they can continue to control how kevin mccarthy deals with the

democrats. their demands are all over the place. the only main reason -- kevin mccarthy has made it clear, he will do basically whatever it takes to become speaker. he's ready to have that fight, and give a mouse a cookie until there's nothing else to give them, but there's not one thing he can give all 19. it's far too big of a wish list to meet those demands, even if he could try. >> the laws permit an infinite number, right? >> right, the constitution says the house can't do any other business until they elect a speaker. they have to settle this at some point. historically there have been some cases where there was not a speaker for months. the democratic-controlled senate can go ahead and keep confirming ambassadors and judges and so

forth up until probably the nation runs up against the debt ceiling sometime in march. i don't think it will go that long, but you have to remember as kevin mccarthy reminded reporters today, he is the current record holder for the longest speech on the house floor. he will try and go for the record for the biggest number of house votes for speaker. >> what does that mean? >> it could go well into next week. maybe, maybe not. there are a lot of scenarios here. i want to point out what we just saw. >> this is a live shot. >> yeah, the live shot. sorry. scalise just gave a speech for speaker himself. what steve scalise did is used his time to condemn democrats and profess the conservative agenda of house republicans.

scalise knows all his colleagues are looking at him now to get the votes that kevin mccarthy couldn't. the first scenario is becoming increasingly unlikely, which is house republicans retreat behind closed doors and kevin mccarthy makes some final deal. i think that deal would be give all the rebels everything they want and they can declare victory and kevin mccarthy can declare unity. that's very plausible, actually, to do that. i think there are too many egos involved that they are not there yet, but maybe they get there. the second is what we just watched, steve scalise, or hudson, or stefanik, who was elected to be conference chair, and who is next in line among them to get to 218. what happened before is it was three months before a speaker was chosen.

republicans among themselves can't get to 218 votes, so democrats decide are there 50 or 75 of our members that would give their vote to some type of unity candidate speaker? that could be a great moment for the country and we are not there yet, but those are three likely scenarios. >> this is a live image of the floor. this is a member named chip roy, and he's nominating jim jordan. how plausible is that? >> not at all. the next speaker of the house of representatives, it will not be a freedom speaker. the margins are too thin. that candidate would face the same challenges that kevin mccarthy does, and you can only lose four votes, and there are never jim jordans and other ones. jim jordan, what happened in the last hour, when the 19 never

kevin shifted to jim jordan, but jim jordan said i am with mccarthy, and they have to recess the house soon maybe after the third ballot and go behind closed doors and figure it out. everything we have seen in the last 24 hours suggests that's implausible. >> to garrett's point, they don't -- we're down to kidneys and lungs. what is there for kevin mccarthy to give? >> kevin mccarthy made several truisms in the last few days. one is that this group won't take yes for an answer. there are a few things, right, you go down to a single member can move to vacate the chair, and kevin mccarthy suggested to do that. could you give these 19 rebels gavels? you have got all their 200 colleagues that would say no way, you can't do that. here's a fascinating thing. republicans have uniquely created this moment of

dysfunction. we watched it for six years. this is just, you know, the end result of the chaos we have seen for the last six years. kevin mccarthy if he did not empower these idiots, would not be in this position. >> we credited kevin mccarthy for the scorn he deserved, and he said it would be better if something faster could be deployed, and then be the first person -- i think he would have walked if he not had access to a commercial flight to mar-a-lago to recesstate him. >> what are they mad about? >> nobody trusts kevin mccarthy. why i got ostracized, nobody

trusted me, because i was willing to call out the caucus. kevin mccarthy will say one thing to one person and another to another. there are chairmanships, and he has promised multiple things to multiple people and he can't be trusted. the analogy i draw is if you look at the past republican speakers, let's start with nancy pelosi, actually. nancy pelosi ruled with an iron fist but velvet glove. you didn't cross her. she was your friend, she was not your enemy but you did not cross her because she controlled the house. john boehner in many ways was that figure. you didn't cross john boehner because he was a disciplinarien. you didn't cross paul ryan because he was your friend and brother. you didn't want to cause him harm. kevin mccarthy can't be trusted and he is showing that the way he is trance acting with others to get to 218. kevin mccarthy as the playground

monitor can't get control of this. i think he's done. he may have one last shot behind closed doors, but i think his run of the speakership is probably done, and i would be surprised, nicole, if kevin mccarthy is in the house of representatives a year from now. i think he resigns. >> they are right now having this third vote. he already -- it looks like they are -- he's already got too many defections, right? no, that's hakeem jeffries, and claire, what do you make of what we are watching? >> well, first, is it christmas? it feels like christmas. the public humiliation part or the failure part? >> it just feels like christmas. it feels like this is exactly --

i mean, you reap what you sew. they fed this beast going back to the tea party, and now this beast is consuming them. remember the young guns, nicole? remember the young guns? ryan, cantor and mccarthy. they were so full of themselves. they were the future of the republican party. they all have been laid to waste by the extremism in this party. i have so much i want to say, but i will stop after asking this one question. what sand trap is trump hiding in today? where is trump? his endorsement now means squat. he endorsed kevin mccarthy. he can't even keep his most loyal supporters in line for the guy he wants to be speaker. so it really says two things. it says mccarthy can't count,

and secondly, trump has no more power in the republican party. >> claire, i want to hear what all those other things are you have to say, but you put your finger on the crux of it. how much losing can they take? mccarthy is trump's hand-chosen candidate to be speaker. claire, we don't ask on the show anymore will it change, because we though it won't. what does that put in motion when trump's word doesn't have value in this sort of screwball caucus? >> well, the interesting thing is nobody has talked about -- none of our reporters are telling us that trump is working the phones. trump knows how to work the phone. trump knows how to get boebert and gaetz and all of his minions on the line. he clearly is hiding or he doesn't care or he has given up. the other thing about this

today, nicole, is this is such petty political posturing at a moment where a lot of americans are paying attention. the reason the democrats are unified is they decided the policy they believe in is more important than their petty political posturing, that they agree on so much that they need to stay united. what message is the republican party sending today? what policy are they united behind? nobody in america can tell what this is about? what, they didn't like the guy? they are not getting the right office or committee assignment? who cares? we have a country to govern, and it shows these people are good at throwing fire bombs and suck at governing. >> jim jordan has four votes, and i think mccarthy can lose one more, right, garrett?

>> in the last vote, mccarthy was sunk by the time they got through "c." i want to point out something senator mccaskill said, and her and dan crenshaw are making that firm point showing that republicans cannot lead, and they are doing this for their own grievances and it made it looks like the republican party can't govern. he's trying to put a little public pressure on them on fox news, and they are all sitting around and eating wheaties watching them in the morning. dan crenshaw is nobody's idea of a moderate, and they are unclear on how this makes them look.

>> garrett haake, i understand you have reporting to go and do, but please come back early and often, and we will stop whatever we are doing to come back and listen to anything you learn. thank you so much. >> yes, ma'am. >> claire, i want to come back to you one more time. as a group, you, david and i, let's choose our words carefully. i don't think this is a group of rebels or far rights, and this is a group that is insurrection federal extremists, and this is a list that are under investigation, and lauren boebert sends out pictures of children holding weapons of war. this is a list of people -- i am not sure what the right word is for the group.

>> it is hard, i think, to imagine that the republican party has gotten itself to this place. you know, there's some bad senators, no question about it. there's probably six or seven that belong in the group of 19, but the way the senate works, they cannot hijack the leadership like this. the idea that mccarthy is thinking about giving them the ability to go through this anytime one of them feels like it, is he crazy? this is going to be two years of proving to all the americans who are republicans who decided to vote against extremists that they did the right thing. look at boebert. i mean, look at boebert, she barely one. she barely won. what does she do her first day back on the job, she thumbs her nose at all of those voters that

thought she was the wrong one, and i don't know what her path forward is politically, but i hope whoever almost beat her is raising money right now because i can't imagine she survives this. >> the speakership right now is out of reach for kevin mccarthy no matter how the rest of the alphabet votes. national political correspondent, steve joins us now from the big board. there's something so jarring about seeing you there with these members' names up there, and jordan is their choice. the last time we were in this room and you were at that board we were watching a red wave that never materialized because americans rejected the extremism. >> these are the 19 republicans. on the first ballot they were not with mccarthy, and on the

second ballot, the group of 19 were all with jim jordan. you can see we are seven deep on this list -- actually, six deep on the list. i think form is holding. they are all continuing to vote for jordan and continuing to hold out. mccarthy, still, nobody that voted for mccarthy on the first two ballots jumped ship from him. if there is any silver lining from him, it's that. you have the group of 19, and so far on the first ballot and second ballot, and now on the third ballot, these 19 have been against mccarthy. democrats have 212 votes, and all 212 democrats have voted for jeffries. that's important because democrats, part of the formula here in terms of the magic number for mccarthy, it can vary depending on how many votes actually vote and how many folks

stay in the chamber. as long as all the democrats stay in the chamber and continue to vote for jeffries as they have done on the first two ballots, that means the maximum number of defections mccarthy can have is five, and you see right away, the first five names alphabetically who voted against him on the first two ballots once again voted against him on the third ballot. i know there are some talk are the democrats going to stay? at some point will they start leaving? if that is an issue as this progresses, the denominator, the magic number could change a bit. as long as every democrat is there and voting for jeffries as has happened on every ballot so far, then the number mccarthy can afford voting for somebody else is five, and again, every ballot so far he has hit that number basically right away, within the first five or so minutes.

the only other thing mccarthy could do to expand his margin of error is to somehow convince republicans not to vote for mccarthy, but to vote present, and if they have ten present votes and nobody actually voting for anybody else, mccarthy could survive with that. listening to the rhetoric with the voting, some of these guys seem dug in right here. we are heading towards a fourth ballot once again, and the only other variable here, as the time starts to go on, keep in mind, so far you have not seen any slippage from the democrats, and do the democrats all stay and continue to vote for jeffries? as long as that happens, the path for mccarthy is hard. >> jordan got his first one time mccarthy vote. this is going the wrong way for

mccarthy. >> yeah, i will pull up my list and see where that came from. >> byron donnell. now we have 19 anti-mccarthy group in the first two, and now there's potentially 20 or more, and that is -- we are saying in the silver lining there for mccarthy he was not losing anybody. chip roy voted for byron on the first ballot, and that was chip roy's vote on the first ballot and now he's onboard in voting for jordan, so yeah, and that's a terrible sign for him. >> steve kornacki, it's always great to have you in the room at the big board. thank you so much, my friend.

i am not great at math but even i know those numbers are not good for kevin mccarthy. what is going on? >> the opposition against kevin mccarthy is strengthening. it happened on the second ballot. on the first ballot we saw five candidates nominated. and on the second ballot they consolidated behind jim jordan, and that's the opposition, it's not fracturing but formalizing. this is why kevin mccarthy doesn't have a pathway in this scenario. your conversation with claire earlier is important. how do we define this opposition? it's in the context of where our national politics are currently going. we have seen over the last several years, in '18, '20 and '22, this is the important disconnect between democrats and republicans.

democrats have built their coalition around solving problems of health care, the economy, labor, immigration, whatever it might be, solving problem. >> equality, democracy. >> all the right things. republicans have built their coalition to include crazy people, and to include white nationalists and racists and people that want to topple the government and insurrectionists. that's the republican coalition. what we are seeing play out is what republicans coalition now looks like in the united states in 2023. it's very different than the can -- confidence you see from the democrats. they built the coalition and they are unable to hold it together. good for them. welcome to the wilderness. enjoy your walk. >> i appreciate all that and i want to press further on this. this list, and that's why i

asked -- i am familiar with the scandals and the brushes with the illegality in what unites these people, other than having expensive attorneys, and this was knowable. kevin mccarthy could have known a week ago or a month ago or four months ago that the coalition of extremists and subjects and targets of criminal probes was not that into him. i am not sympathetic to his humiliation, but i am intrigued by it. >> yeah, this is where you wish you could use expletives on air. screw all these guys, right? you voted donald trump to be leader of your party and refuse to stand up to him, and he elevated marjorie taylor greene and matt gaetz, and they elevated above kevin mccarthy, but then kevin mccarthy had to be accepted into the fold.

this is a manifestation of the last few years. if the republicans want to go through this so they get to be the party that controls one house of a bicameral legislature with a joe biden administration that will run the show for the next two years, enjoy your time. whoever gets to be speaker will be there for two years, maybe less. you celebrated a bunch of garbage, and that's why a couple people are taking a victory lap today and it's okay to do so. >> you seem mad? >> there's a destruction of one of the two parties in the country right now, and we maybe should celebrate that, because it's an affirmation of what they knew was wrong.

it's why i left the party and i don't have any respect for the people going through this today. the fights they had this morning behind closed doors, i have been in those rooms. this was, you know, the fifth or sixth chapter of all that garbage. i hope this goes on for months without them being able to solve it, because they created this and deserve it. >> claire, i -- you know, it's the nine stages of grief. i passed real grief for a party i served and help to build turn into a coalition in one that makes room in space and holds space and it's coalition for white nationalists and supremacists and targets of extremism, and not to mention anti-vaxxers that have the deaths of thousands of americans on their hands. it has become a wash in everything that is dark. that said, i'm not sure that i could articulate the differences

between the 19 and what kevin mccarthy stands for. what, in your view, was sort of the breakdown? again, i don't feel sorry for kevin mccarthy, but i am intrigued that even he didn't seem to see today coming? >> there has been a lot of history around seeking power, and particularly political power. when you have someone who is more interested in the power that their position gives them, then what they want to accomplish in office, this is the result. kevin mccarthy -- it's so obvious to everyone in the chamber, and anybody that paid attention to politics or worked with him or around him is that he didn't really believe in anything except power. in that way, he's kind of like donald trump. there's nothing that drives

kevin mccarthy. clearly, he said what he should have said on the day of the insurrection, and then immediately ran down to trump to kiss his you know what. this is not a guy that has integrity. what you have to have to lead a country is principles. there has to be principles you believe in that are more important than your position. liz cheney, and david, and many in the senate have refuses to cozy up with the people in our country that don't share our values. they don't share our american values at all. i mean, david jolly said it perfectly. they deserve every minute of this chaos. i think back, nicole, on the first day of sessions and, you

know, their time to rejoice and share with your family, and we had tough caucuses on the first day. i remember joe lieberman wondered away from our party and we had to decide whether or not he stayed chairman of his committee, and all of that was done behind closed doors and we emerged focused on the policy we wanted to enact. you know what they did in their caucus this morning, the republicans? they cursed at each other. they swore at each other. i can't imagine that happening on the first day of session. any functioning political party in america. i think the next two years will be a rough ride. i don't know how this is going to end up. they will probably end up with scalise or, you know, well, i think she has demonstrated she

wants power more than she cares about her principles. we will see what happens. they deserve it. it's depressing. i don't feel sorry for them. it's still depressing. >> can i very quickly -- the irony is what they are fighting for is the opportunity to launch investigations into joe biden and hunter biden. >> but i guess where i get stuck is kevin mccarthy is not against that. >> that's my point. they are not fighting because they have convictions over how to deliver health care to americans or solve the border crisis -- >> i can't find anybody on the list that is beneath kevin mccarthy. is there anyone? >> it just goes back to nobody trusts kevin mccarthy. those people won't get to yes because they are never kevins. i was a never kevin. i was part of a coalition in

2015 that stopped kevin mccarthy, and i was in a coalition that asked kevin mccarthy and steve scalise, tell me when we are going to do immigration reform, and we were condemning barack obama, you can't use your pen and your phone, and i asked kevin mccarthy when are we going to do it? he said we are not going to do it. that was their tactic. we don't legislate. >> they do benghazi? >> yes, and negative political attacks. what they are fighting over is who is going to lead the investigation of joe biden. not who is going to deliver health care to the american people and solve immigration. democrats are united behind a leadership team that says we want to make health care more affordable and we want to create a pathway of people that want to contribute to the american dream, and we want to protect democracy and elevate all communities. that's what the democrats are asking to do today. republicans are saying we don't know who our leader is that is

going to launch an investigation into a sitting president. >> other than being motivated by humiliating kevin mccarthy, what is this about? >> power. >> he's promised them all power, right? >> we are in an era where parties are not necessary to achieve success. they have steve bannon and fox news and their own national constituency. the fab -- >> kevin mccarthy will never scratch that itch for them. they don't need it. the most important thing for matt gaetz and others tonight will be to go on fox news and be able to declare why they toppled kevin mccarthy.

that's success in their eyes. >> ryan nobles, you may have been able to answer the question better than we have been able to. what is this about? >> wow, you really set me up there, nicole. thanks. to get serious about it, a think in the great scheme that things, this is setting the stage for the next two years. you have a group of republicans who recognize that the only real leverage they will have over the next two years comes at this critical moment. they are trying to get every possible concession they can out of kevin mccarthy and they know as soon as they give that away, as soon as they capitulate in any way, shape or form and give him the speakership, they will be destined to the sidelines of the government conversation. they push the things, only one vote necessary to vacate the floor, and that would allow the up rising to remove the speaker.

one of the things you heard from the members of the right wing of the republican party -- we have been blanket describing them as the freedom caucus. more members of the freedom caucus as voted for kevin mccarthy than against him. this is a special group of right wing republicans who have a very specific agenda here, and they talked about leverage. they do not want to lose leverage. the second they hand over the speakership to kevin mccarthy, they lose that leverage in a big way. nicole, the other thing that is important to keep in mind when we look at this from the historical perspective, the last time kevin mccarthy went through this, when john boehner stepped down and they looked like he was going to get the speakership, and at that time kevin mccarthy thought he had a future and there would be another opportunity for him, another chance to get up and lead the republicans back to the majority

and be speaker of the house. it's not likely he will get that opportunity again. so that gives him a bit more firm ground to stand on when it comes to a staring contest. he was not willing to engage in a staring contest the last time this happened because he was afraid of the consequences. this time around, if he doesn't win, he likely will just go away and we won't hear from him again, and it will be different from him trying to regroup and establish himself for another run for the speakership. that's why you are seeing the very public flight on the floor of the house of representatives, something we never see because kevin mccarthy is in a different situation than he was the last time around, and on the other side of the ledger, you have a group of people that also feel it benefits to engage in the staring contest. right now it doesn't look like anybody is willing to blink. >> the numbers seem to be going in the wrong direction for kevin

mccarthy. i ate a lobster once and you are supposed to put it in the spot, and i will never do it again, and many say i couldn't take it, and how long do you listen to the lobster scream? >> that's a great comparison. i don't know how long he is willing to put up with this. i think the thing to keep in mind is there was hope in mccarthy world, maybe after the second or third ballot, they would peel away from the 19 number that were firmly opposed to him, and it has gone in the other direction. kevin mccarthy does not have to peel away five or six votes, but 11, 12, 13 votes, and that group, the group of five that basically have been the never kevin's from the very beginning never have gaven any indication that they are movable. i just don't see where his path

is to get over this hump. even if you started to be open for a conversation for kevin mccarthy as the speaker, and when you have five people that basically decided you will never be speaker of the house, i don't know how you move around that. the question is do we just continue to have this kind of groundhog day over and over again. at what point duty numbers skew against him where there's a conversation to be had about what the escape hatch is and who the alternative will be. it's important to point out, nicole, that i am sure all day long we have all been speculating about a list of names that could theoretically be the person to get to 218, but there's still no real movement happening behind the scenes amongst any of the candidates.

jim jordan clearly doesn't want the job, so who is that person and at what point does that person begin a w.h.i.p. operation that will get them to 218. we have been having a conversation about the right wing republicans that are not interested in electing kevin mccarthy as speaker, and if kevin mccarthy steps away, we will have a conversation about members of the republican caucus that are interested in governing if you are going to try and use a way to describe them, that may not be interested in a far right member of the caucus to lead them. there's no simple solution here. it's not as if somebody raises their hand and they are going to go with that guy. it's more complicated than that. what i am trying to say in a long-winded way, there's not a paul ryan that will come to the

rescue and solve the problem for the republicans, at least in the short term. >> to the degree you are able, please stick around. if you need to go and do reporting, come back early and often and wave and we would love to hear what you are hearing as the second list starts to take shape up there. thank you so much for sharing your reporting with us. let me add to our conversation, a veteran washington reporter, mark leibovitz. we will get to the tragedy that happened last night in football, and we will get to that in our two hours, but we are riveted by kevin mccarthy failing to get the speaker of the house, and we are dying to hear your thoughts. >> i am happy to be versatile. in some ways, it's not unexpected. we seen this coming.

it's a slow-moving train wreck. kevin mccarthy, he had no control over this caucus. he had nominal control over a bunch of people that he in a traditional sense thought he had political relationships with, and he raised a lot of money and had known them for a long time, and that assumes you are going to have a fairly big cushion of the majority that he, obviously, did not get. you are dealing with rational actors that want the best for him, and some do, but the people that are making this really hard for him are really leading the fight here, people like matt gaetz and lauren boebert, they are not people hoping to win the respect of their peers or work their way up to good committee assignments, and these are people that want to get the attention they are getting today, so -- sorry, there's a

cattail right here, and that's embarrassing. >> we don't have a camera on you. >> anyway, this was -- this is quite a thing to see. i have no idea how it's going to play out, and i am riveted like everybody else is. >> let's push ourselves. should we really be riveted that lauren boebert, and matt gaetz under investigation for trafficking, and lauren boebert sends pictures of her kids with weapons of war, and then should -- scott perry, one of the architects of the of coup plot. should we be riveted by this at all? what are we surprised by, mark? >> that's a good question. actually i stand by the word riveted because i think this is an affair the victims have made.

kevin mccarthy -- this is what happens -- whatever the metaphor is when you get into bed with a skunk or something. this is something that he knows better. the working title of many of the stories we have covered and written in the last several years is that they all know better. kevin mccarthy knows better. he knows what he's dealing with. yeah, there's something riveting about watching things happen like this. i am kind of all for it. also, there's a level of damage to the party they are deserving of, and the country is insulated probably because the democrats have the senate and the republicans have a small margin in the white house, and the democrats control the white house. and yes, i stand by the word riveted. >> claire, let me bring you back in. again, this is not a far right wing of the party. this is a group that includes

people involved in planning an effort to overthrow the united states government. 19 republican house members were in the roosevelt room, and it's a meeting we know a lot about from cassidy hutchison's testimony and others, and the bakers dozen was seeking pardons. the last time i checked the only people that need pardons are criminals. i had "godfather" on as i was cleaning up after christmas, and i never saw any parallels between my time in government and anything i saw in the trump era because nobody talked about looking for people that were qualified, but i did listen to people talking in rooms like the trump era, and those were the mobsters. >> the interesting thing is kevin mccarthy, i think, thought he could play this game the way it is currently being played. by that i mean that he can cozy

up to these people and they would accept him. he would, you know, get jim jordan to be his friend, you know, and co-opt marjorie taylor greene and everything would be okay. keep in mind that kevin mccarthy gave a million dollars from his leadership campaign fund to crane, who voted against him today, i guess, for the third time. that's just not the way that kevin mccarthy came into politics or has done politics. when the leader of your party takes care of you during your campaign, you don't abandon them when it's time to make them the leader, when you win the majority. these 19 people, there's nothing they care about, because clearly they have the same views as marjorie taylor greene and jim

jordan and elise stefanik, who loves donald trump. there's no idealogical schism here that explains why they are voting for mccarthy or against him. i don't want anybody to misunderstood, when i said is it christmas? i am not saying today is a good day for our country. it's not a good day for our country. we need people in office that care about getting things done for the american people, and not about posturing. it's a good day for democrats to flex their muscles around competence and control and caring about the american people and things they need, but by no means is this a day to celebrate because this is not good for the united states of america. >> i understood what you said. david, i want to ask you what you are talking about and then come back to claire's point. there's something for all of us

that covered kevin mccarthy with dismay that grew into disgust over the years knowing that he could not possibly agree with everything he was cheering, and i will use mark's word, it's riveting. now jim jordan is higher than the last vote. he has 20 votes and he had 19 in the last round. we will see in the remaining 50 if there are any more votes to go. kevin mccarthy is seated by himself. >> i saw you staring at the screen. >> this is interesting. the stables you see, scalise and stefanik at a table, and mccarthy is by himself. this is just laws of human behavior. that's not a dynamic that a majority leader wants if they are trying to ascend into the speakership. if there's a closed republican conference coming up, mccarthy

played almost his last card in this morning's conference by going adversarial, and he scorched all of them. these people are with the democrats and not with us, and he went adversarial. adversaria. he doesn't have any other cards to play other than i will be whatever puppet you want me to be. i think we're watching that unravel for him right now. i think this is kind of the end of kevin mccarthy's tenureship as a leader of the republican caucus and we begin to ask how much longer he might survive in the house. >> so what happens next? >> is there a kevin mccarthy survival scenario? >> and you seem to be ruling that out. >> and to be fair, you ruled that out, when were you here?

six weeks ago? >> i never thought he could get there which goes to the bigger question of we need a functioning house. america needs a functioning house. scenario is he finds a way to survive behind closed doors in the coming hours. another way, somebody else can get to 218. we don't know that's the case. the third scenario that could fascinate much of america is a unity ticket or speaker. you still have to have probably 150 plus republicans. it will be a strong conservative republican. it will not be a moderate. >> does it have to be a member? >> doesn't have to be a member. this is the fred upton scenario. universally respected by the house. led on healthcare reform. but you have to be able to get about 150 republicans and then jeffries and the democrats have to get to the point where they say we will release about 75 of our members to vote and it would be an exchange not for moderate

policies, but for new rules. democrats as a minority party to try to legislate over the next two years. >> the aaron sorkin fan in me, you describe it as farfetched? >> no. if republicans can't solved this, it's where we end up. i would suggest all leading western democracies have a coalition government. we would be looking at a little snapshot. this is just a house. but a lit bit of coalition governing. scalise might get to 218. unfortunately, republicans are wire to just hate democrats. they are not going to want that break glass scenario, but maybe we get there next week. >> so, i believe we have learned that a fourth vote is about to get underway. do i have that right, control room?

so they're still in the third. last time david jolly was listening in, probably around 40 more votes to be cast. but there will be a fourth ballot. mark, what, if you're a thought bubble on top of mccarthy's head, what does it say? >> i am trying to sort of go to the next step and just think at what point does he kind of give up here. does he leave the house? go even more scorched earth and resign. does he resign? stay around? >> say i'm going to devin nunez? >> only so many jobs in the trump empire. never let myself entertain the notion of the fred upton --

maybe in the aaron sorkin sense of the word and not real world, which is probably still operative. look, i mean, it's, you sort of wonder in more likely scenario, a steve scalise scenario, how, what kind of resistance would there be to him assuming he has more support from the freedom caucus, you know, are the don bacons of the world, are the moderate mainstream republicans, governing republicans, would there be a resistance there or would they be open to that? i'm not steeped in this the way david or others are. to me, that would be a very viable option. >> it's smaller in some ways, this all comes down to the die namic of a house majority of 220

votes. who are the four vote he loses? that's a little different dynamic and it just comes down to personal allegiance. >> and that's personal and chemistry not policy? >> go back to this district, gaetz and trump rather than two terms ago. mccarthy supported her poen and never really endorsed her this term when she actually ran. he could probably get to 218 in this environment because of dynamics like that. >> then what? >> i guess it's possible. the other thing we have to realize that's maybe possible is

that mccarthy is not trying to wear down the 21, 22 votes against him, but rather wear down the democrats and hoping that enough of them wander away that his number becomes more manageable. i've been on the floor in the dead of the night and you know, members can get very grumpy about having to stay around for long periods of time. especially those that are not spring chickens. that are used to going to bed at a decent hour of the night. so i wonder if mccarthy somehow has it in his head that if he keeps these votes going all through the night, that he somehow wears down enough democrats to go home, that his number becomes approachable. maybe not attainable, but more approachable. but i think david's probably right. the most logical scenario is probably scalise. i just don't know how those 19

people feel about him or how the most moderate republicans feel about him in terms of getting it to the magic number. >> all right, claire, we are today's hotel california. you can check out, but you can never leave. mark, thank you for joining us. if you see anything, wave your arms and come back and spend some time with us. we're going to sneak in a quick break and track the drama on capitol hill as they prepare for a possible fourth vote. don't go anywhere today. a possie don't go anywhere today. when you stay at a vrbo... i call doing the door code! ...the host doesn't stay with you. it looks exactly like the picture. because without privacy in your vacation home... it's a full log cabin guys. ...it isn't really a vacation... we can snuggle up by the fire. ...is it? wow, oh my- [birds chirping]

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hi, again. dysfunction of epic proportions largely at the republican party's own making. on the first day of the 118th congress where republicans hold a slim majority in the house. we just wrapped up a third vote for house speaker with no winner. a fourth ballot is expected soon. mccarthy has been unable to secure enough votes to cross the 218 vote threshold. house rules require lawmakers to keep holding votes until someone reaches that magic number or a simple majority of members voting. these votes are likely to continue for hours. it's possible they go on for days. in this latest vote, there were 20 votes against mccarthy. an increase from the group of 19 republicans who voted against him in the first two ballots. today marks the first time in 100 years that the house of

representatives has gone to multiple ball los. the last time was in 1923. watching alongside with us, ali vitali with us from the capitol. also with us, lexi. claire mccaskill, david jolly. all msnbc contributors. alexi, tell me what stands out for you. >> i think you mentioned the sheer history of it. the fact it's been 100 years since in happened is notable. also when you think back to 2015 a when mccarthy was running to replace john boehner as speaker and he suddenly dropped out of the race then, throwing the house and republican caucus into chaos and shock at that time. so he's no stranger to throwing a wrench into his own plans to become speaker, but this time is certainly something else.

the other notable thing you mentioned, we talked about those five never kevin republicans who vowed to vote against him. since then and starting really on sunday evening, there are 14 more adding to that. leading to 19 te tractors and now it's up to 20. that's bad news for kevin mccarthy. >> i think we're joined by jake sherman. funder of punch bowl news and msnbc contributor. i texted you a couple of hours ago and said what happens next and you honestly replied i don't know. seems like we're in the i don't know phase of this dramatic day that's now turning out remotely the way mccarthy hope frd two years that it would. >> no, this is not how he had it planned. few things are becoming clear. number one, there's one of two options that need to happen for mccarthy. he either needs to drop out. i'm not suggesting, giving him

advice, but this is clear just based on the evidence. or he needs to go back into a room with conservatives and cut some sort of deal. and try to work out their differences because the 19 now 20 republicans who have voted against him now three times are not moving. and he could try to wear them down, but right now, they're winning. their only goal is to prevent him from becoming speaker. they're succeeding in that right now. so mccarthy is now at a fork in the road regardless of what you think of the conservatives demands, of what you think of mccarthy, the goal is to get to 218. he's not close to that right now three ballots in. it's going in the wrong direction. so the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a

different result. not going to be different. he's going to keep losing. >> insanity is a wonderful word to use when we talk about this group. as a one-time republican, i don't like calling them conservatives. this is a group that includes an individual under former federal criminal investigation for child sex trafficking, a couple of insurrectionists. i've got a list over here in the studio. this is not a group that is separating with him on ideological grounds, is it, jake? >> no, and to be honest with you, some of the arguments they're making, people like chip roy and other conservatives are making are actually legit and a lot of moderates and even progressives on the left agree with them. that the house should be open for more debate. there should be more amendments on the floor. these are not you know controversial points for some. now some of the points they're making are very controversial. but all of that said, something

has to break this deadlock and let's call them the right, not conservatives. the right is not breaking for mccarthy and will continue to not break for mccarthy until something changes. >> jake, you and i were on the air together when some of those audio tapes were leaked to the press, just how galled he was by donald trump's behavior on january 6th. he would do, 180 isn't far enough to describe his pivot there. are you at a point where you can analyze why someone who from the outside seems so sycophantic to the insurrection adjacent members of that caucus and donald trump himself? why he's failing at a job he coveted for two years? >> i don't think this has anything to do with trump or anything of that nature. the issues they're waging this campaign on, this campaign for speaker, are issues internal

house procedural issues. to most people, very boring issues about the openness of the house floor. i'm not saying they're not important issues, but these are internal maintenance issues of the house of representatives. the degree of conservative ism, of ideology in the house republican conference is tight. most people are supporters of donald trump and are on the relative far right of the house republican conference. so this is a mix of people who just don't like mccarthy. people say he's bought and sold by lobbyists. i'm not agreeing or disagreeing. people say he's part of the swamp. this is what you hear from his dissenters. i don't think this has anything to do with trump. people are not giving him credit or detracting anything from him because of his relationship with trump or what he did around january 6th. >> matt gaetz said this monk, if

you want to drain the swamp, you can't put the biggest alligator in charge of the exercise. did mccarthy fail to count accurately? is he surprised by how far he is in 218? >> i think they're a little surprised. they thought they could wear people down. they thought people would get sick of voting. they would want their protest vote. their attitude has shifted in conversations with me, which is we just want to go to war with the freedom caucus and right wing of the house republican congress because in his view, this is a group of 20 people that is holding up the will of 203 other people. this is a 90-10 proposition and mccarthy thinks the will of 90% should not be trumped by the will of 10%. i think that is an argument his team is clinging to. his leadership is clinging to just feet from me here as they

try to turn the tide here. he's actually not even trying to turn the tide at this moment, but he needs to soon or he's going to have to go. >> jake, here's something that only an outsider like me would wonder about. if you're willing to give away democracy in servitude of donald trump, why aren't you willing to give up the house rules? >> that's the irony. he's given them all up. even the red lines, this nonconfidence vote. the so-called motion to vacate. he said he would never reverse on that. he did when he needed to get some votes. those votes never materialized. so again, this is a personality contest. people don't like mccarthy for a variety of reasons. although they're all saying on the house floor, it's not personal. it's very deeply personal. they don't like the guy. they don't want him to be become speaker in a lot of cases for a lot of these members and they're holding it against him now. >> jake, if not kevin, then who?

>> who the hell knows. i guess steve scalise would be up next. moderates have issues with him. it could in jim jordan, although moderates would have issues with him. it could be some compromised candidate. we don't know yet. i think this is going to, i'm getting some senses of grumpiness from republicans who want to recess and return at some point either tonight or tomorrow morning, but i don't know who. scalise has eshed. jordan will have issues. i don't think it's going to be a unity candidate with democrats, although i think we're in uncharted territory and it could be anybody. it could be nobody for several days. >> jake sherman, i know how busy you are today. thank you for making time to talk to us. if you feel you have something interesting, just wave your arms or shoot us a text.

ali vitali is also on capitol hill. what are you hearing? >> i think the number of times jake sort of shrugged, that's really all of us can do up here today. lawmakers have been doing this to me for hours. really, we are in uncharted territory in that it's not like we're waiting for something to shake loose, but it's not like all these people met yesterday and just started talking in the last few hours. these conversations have been going on for weeks. mccarthy has been making concessions for weeks. jake is right that he has hit some red lines. he has very few cards left to give away. this morning when reporters were asking him questions, he did not have a let's make a deal tone. instead, he was defiant, both with reporters and behind closed doors, about the fact he feels he has earned this job. and 90% of his caucus agree with that, but 19 then 20 on this last ballot say that the strategy of just waiting them out trying to wear them down is

not working. in fact, byron donalds said he changed his vote because he wouldn't be worn down and because there was no one that seemed to be able to get that majoric number. so there's starting to be this agitating go behind closed doors to hash it out, but they did that this morning and it was a tense exchange over the course of an hour and a half, people going back and forth with mccarthy publicly. members who support him trying to intervene on his behalf. members against him speaking their piece. so it was a tense back and forth to even just start off the day. after several rounds of balloting, you can't imagine it's going to be anymore as they sit in that room together. you guys were talking about the trump factor. i don't think it's the direct trump factor of the former president picking up the phone trying to whip for mccarthy, but i think it goes as far back as candidate recruitment and who

they put in the districts. the fact they have this margin as small as it is right now is an output of the trump factor. and so while he's not directly responsible for the things happening today, there is a real question of the role trump has played here in mccarthy being speaker or not. the last point i would make is whoever gets this job, this is what it is going to be every day of trying to get republicans to be able to do anything. they have very slim margins. and clearly, a group of people who have an entirely different permission structure in the freedom caucus. the goal is not necessarily to do things efficiently to make government work. in fact, it's quite the opposite in some cases. >> ali, what you and ryan and jake and every reporter has articulated is that there's no

world view dif rentuation. what there is is people that are just not that into him. they don't like him. i find it fascinating that he spent two years sucking up to the most extreme in some instances, violent elements of his party then today decided to yell at them. is there any second guessing about perhaps having tried to be a leader over the last two years and not yelling at them today? >> you've seen his posture change, but even if he were to say he's not reversing course on that, there's no way it would make a difference. he's made the decisions he has made. he has kowtowed to the trump wing of the party. made the electoral decisions he made that led them to this place in the midterms and now after. this was a conference he was very much a part of creating in terms of who he campaigned for, raised money for. some of the people voting against him have those election gripes themselves because they didn't get mccarthy's

endorsement or his help. but on the other hand, he then also has to deal with the mad rat factions of his caucus that want him, not any of these other conservatives, and they're going to have their own problems with a jordan, a scalise. at this point, it's hard to say and you asked this question perfectly. the one i ask all the time. if not mccarthy, then who? there's no obvious answer that is tangible and real and can actually be put forward. that's why we're on ballot three. we're going to go to four. we could go to five. that's why. because there's nothing to shake the process loose and no clear alternative at this point. >> i'll say what i've said to every journalist out there, if you come across anything in your reporting that you want to share, just wave your arms, shoot us a text and we'll get a camera back on you. thank you so much. let's bring in dan goldman. you're not -- can you be sworn

in? what are you? >> still a congressman elect. until there's a speaker, we are not full members of congress yet. >> so can the 1/6 committee zip off the rest of their evidence to the archives? >> i do think the 117th is over, but i guess the 1/6 committee is still in existence. hasn't been shut down yet. >> paging liz cheney. tell me what it's like up there today. >> i think what you're seeing is exactly what ali is describing where you have a really unified democratic party that is very focused in support of jeffries, but also really focused on legislation, on governing, on policy. on the other side, you have a republican party that has been completely captured by the extremists on the right and it's not, it used to be the fringe. now it is the folks who are in control of that party. and you're seeing 19, 20 people

voting against mccarthy with no future in sight and there doesn't even seem to be a reason why. they've seem to have gotten just about everything they wanted, but it's not enough for them. i think at the end of the day what the american people are seeing is that this is a party that is incapable of governing. that doesn't actually have policy platforms. that doesn't put forth legislation of any meaning to the american people and cannot get their act together. >> david jolly. >> congressman elect, david jolly here. congratulations and i hope you and your family are enjoying today. it's clear republicans have some family conversations to still have from here on out and they're not at the breaking point yet, but what is the threshold at which the democratic caucus begins to consider lending support to a speaker in the next congress?

what is that threshold? >> we haven't discussed it. because we are 100% behind jeffries. and if there are members of the republican party who would like to vote for jeffries, we would be happy to have him as the speaker. but that's, you know, what you're seeing from the democrat side is real unity. unity of purpose. unity of vision. unity of leadership. and so i don't know what the threshold is for the republicans. i don't know what their plan is. it's not as if today was a surprise to anybody. and to go to the floor and really have no idea whether you're going to have the votes or not is very unusual. but you know, we'll sit this out as long as they want and continue to vote for congressman jeffries and we'll just watch what they do. it's a real shame right now. >> dan, claire mccaskill has a question for you. >> dan, first of all, you'll

take the oath soon. is it possible he is trying to wear you all down. with the idea that democrats might wander away and the number he has to have. have you all discussed this? are all the members having those discussions? is everybody ready to stay all night long? are you all ready for this kind of a marathon sessions of voting and voting and voting which is to repetitious and hard for people used to being in five places at once to sit still in one location for hours. talk about that and what's being said in your caucus about that. >> yeah, there's been no discussion of letting up. we will stay as long as we have to. i'm happy to stay on the floor as long as my 4 and 5-year-old

don't have to be there with me. but no. we are fully unified behind congressman jeffries. we will all be there. we will be there as long as possible and i don't get the sense this is an effort by mccarthy to wear us down. i think this is an effort by him to wear down those who are in opposition to help. because it does not appear there's a viable alternative when the person that they're voting for is someone who actually nominated mccarthy himself. so i don't know what the end game is here for them. i think what you are observing correctly is that there's just chaos. it's completely untethered to actual governing and if this is any indication of what's going to happen in the next congress, then you know, they're going to put forward nothing that is of any meaning to the public. to the american people. because they're going to be focused on these extremist

investigations and they're going to be guided by the extremists in their party. >> dan, congressman elect goldman, i'm going to have to change my tune here. >> always dan. >> i believe i read it reported that mccarthy had moved into the speaker's office already. do you sense any sort of ha rumming around there? can you see if his face has turned red? what's the energy like around kevin mccarthy? >> it's interesting. i've been watching a little bit and he's very stoic as he is sitting in his chair. especially as you know, other members are voting for andy biggs or jim jordan. and it seems as if you know, he's weathered now three votes. we don't have an indication that we're going to adjourn so there can be discussions among

republicans. i had heard rumblings that after two votes, if he doesn't get it, they may reconsider. that clearly has not happened and we don't have any indication of him letting up. but again, we're not privy to the conversation that is the republicans are having on their side. >> to be a member of that chamber is such a solemn, you know, sort of i think step in your career of public service. and i wonder what it feels like. are the echoes of the insurrection and of those members running for their lives on january 6th, is it something you can feel or cognizant of that? >> you know, what jumps out to me is it feels as if the similar strain that undergridded the objection to the election by so many republican members on january 6th continues on this

extreme part of the party that is now once again sabotaging democracy seemingly with no end goal that i certainly can see. and you see it with the leadership and the extremists on the right. you see it frankly with george santos. and the fact that republican leadership has not commented nor condemned someone who has essentially defrauded the voters in his district through a serial web of lies and there's been no comment from anybody in the republican leadership even acknowledging his lies, his connect and rebuking it in any way. it just goes to show they're perfectly happy to have someone else in their caucus who does not believe in free and fair elections. who is willing to lie in order to get into power and that does seem to be kevin mccarthy's focus and it seems to be folks

who are voting against him. it's all about power. not about governing. >> congressman elect goldman, we hope next time you're here, you have been sworn in, but if it doesn't come to pass and you see something and want to share, wave your arms. we'd love to hear from you again. thank you for spending some time with us today. >> my pleasure. great to see all of you. >> we're now waiting for the gavel on the third vote. mccarthy appears to have lost. we're waiting for a possible fourth vote in just a moment. we have to squeeze in a break. i want to come back to you quickly on something that he said. >> yeah. >> this antidemocracy thread. you feel it in the body. that is what unites these people. even though every one of them were on the same ballot. so to vote against joe biden means to believe the line that had their name on it was good.

he also talked about george santos. it is a republican party in the eyes of the american voters in the midterms did not stand for serving and protecting our democracy. does any of that come together as mccarthy goes down in flames for a third time it would appear. >> it does because that part of the caucus is the controlling part of today's republican coalition. they are controlling the events of today. the insurrectionists caucus is what is controlling all the events we are watching and mccarthy, he has allies with that caucus. he just can't get their votes right now. what's fascinating, i'm surprised we're going to a fourth vote here if they do. at any moment, they could have a family conversation behind closed doors. we're going to see one of two things happen. mccarthy is going to try this war or you're going to see the other side make a play.

they're going to use the votes to show us that. and one last thing we haven't talked about is the denny hastert situation. >> let's listen. >> the total number of votes cast is 434 of which the honorable jeffries of the state of new york has 212. the honorable kevin mccarthy of the state of california has received 202. the honorable jim jordan of the state of ohio has received 20. no person having received a majority of the whole number of votes cast by surname.

a speaker has not been elected. for what purpose does the gentleman from oklahoma rise? >> i move to adjourn until noon tomorrow. >> the question is on the motion. all those in favor say aye. all those opposed no. >> the aye's have it. the motion is adopted. the house stands adjourned until noon tomorrow. >> so david, to at least noon tomorrow. what does this mean? >> this is the family meeting. very likely probably at 6:00 p.m. or 8:00 p.m. tonight. house republicans will have a closed meeting and this is where i suspect mccarthy will do one of two things. he will bow out. what he did in 2015 as he said i realize the math isn't there and i can't do it. he may do that tonight behind closed doors. what he other wise might do is

make this last pitch, which is what do you need? what can i give you? how can i become speaker? this will be the defining moment of his career tonight behind closed doors. there's a possibility they push it to tomorrow morning at 10:00. the denny hastert scenario is this. including myself have moved to the scalise hudson question. can one of the other members of leadership move up. in '99, i was actually working in the house when newt gingrich resigned. bob livingston of louisiana was the consensus pick and the night before the vote, larry flint published a scandal story about bob and he couldn't do it. there was nobody else there who could get 218. hastert was six or eight down the line. the chief deputy whip. in today's parliament, i think that's patrick mchenry of north

carolina. we may end up in that scenario. >> he's interesting, too, right? >> they're all interesting. >> tell me about him. >> so, you know, leadership, when you get to congress, you choose one of two paths. you are going to rise in a committee and have jurisdiction over a subject matter or be a person that raises a bunch of money and makes champions out of others and creates a leadership path. the young guns, ryan, mccarthy and cantor, they were leadership path. mchenry chose the leadership path several years ago, but when you get down to five, six, seven, eight, america doesn't know those people. that's what made hastert the right pick. it was noncontroversial. someone like mchenry, the country doesn't know him. maybe that becomes a pick people can rally around. >> claire, your thoughts? >> i think that is maybe the most likely scenario. one thing is true about politics today that people like to see

people that they've never heard of. they don't know of. that they've got a penchant for electing people who know nothing about government. they really, they really don't want familiarity. they want change. they want something different. so it does make sense that if mccarthy decides to throw in the towel that they might look further down the line to a name that hasn't been bandied about. that hasn't had exposes on various kinds in "the new york times" or other leading papers around the country. it gives them somewhat of a more fresh start if they were to do that. you know, but i've got to say as they adjourn for the day, what a remarkable contrast between the two parties today. you had a senior leadership team in the house that stepped aside and not only did they step aside, they made sure that they had people behind them that were

ready to step in a way that gave the members of the caucus confidence and provided this sense of unity. it is remarkable how well nancy pelosi and her other leadership team pulled off this transition and what class she showed today sitting as a back bencher and applauding for her successor as leader of the democrats in the house. and over on the senate side, you had patty murray, the first woman in history to be pro tem. so you have jeffries and murray both makes history today and the democrats really showing off their unity and ability to govern and obviously the longer this chaos continues, the stronger their hand becomes for the last two years the biden term. >> alexi, if you wanted to further the narrative that cost mitch mcconnell the majority for second time in two years, and

that cost republicans that was never to be, you couldn't construct a narrative that combines the elements of extremism, election deny l ism more perfectly than the last 12 hours on the republican side of the house. >> yeah, it's sort of a culmination of all these factors that have been happening since donald trump stepped on to the scene in 2015 and became the leader of their party and continues to drag different factions out to different extremes in different directions. what all of this really is is a lesson in sort of who to follow, but also who wants to be led. that's what i've been thinking a lot about with these kind of never kevin far right republicans. they're really in charge as we see of sort of picking who the next leader of their party is but do they even want to be led? it doesn't seem like they want to be led by anyone but themselves and their own instincts and each other. when we're talk about

alternatives, that's what i'm asking myself is who will not only give them the same concessions that mccarthy has given them, but who will they consider to be the type of person that even wants to be governed by or under. >> it's a great question. do you know the answer? >> no, her comment is really pressing it for this reason. the only place i've ever served is the united states congress and it led me on a journey of self-discovery that i'm not wired for the legislative behavior. the how do we work together with 200 plus people. the never kechbl caucus is probably people not wired for legislature. i didn't come up through a state legislature and learn those things so i kept asking why aren't we solving immigration and healthcare. every member doesn't get their own way. i suppose mccarthy's pitch in conference today was exactly that. which is you don't get to be 10%

of the caucus and control the other 90%. >> but you do. >> because that's what the republican party has created. >> i understand that tomorrow at 10:00, they're going to go into a room. what is left for mccarthy to give? >> this will test the question will they accept yes and if he'll give it to them. it's probably more likely he bows out now than otherwise because you give them the single member ability to push a vote of no confidence. apparently, the rebels want to assign certain members to committees, but that would mean jumping these 10% over the other 90% which mccarthy probably couldn't do. >> it's like insurrection jenga. >> all along, this 10% has wanted his head on a political platter. they wanted to show they could take down the heir apparent to republican leadership, which is why he will probably finally

bail out to the math. >> then they'll be able to live with scalise because why? >> because they can declare victory. >> go on tucker carlson, we did it boss. >> if mccarthy had given them everything and they had taken yes, they could go to their constituents and fox news and steve bannon and say we accomplished this. mccarthy could say i held the party together and you we're off. we get to go investigate joe biden. they didn't do it then and i don't think they can do it now, but that's the only story left to tell. which is the rebels forced mccarthy into a stronger conservative hard right position and he kept the party together. if they can pull that off in a family meeting, they have a way forward. if not, mccarthy likely isn't in the house. >> incredible. claire, we found this piece of sound today to your point.

[ chanting ] >> no one's even sitting next to kevin mccarthy. what are you prepared to watch over the next, you know, not just two hours, but two years? >> well, the senate is saying about kevin mccarthy stepping aside. it means that that extreme element of america's politics talks up a win. and they haven't been vanquished. they haven't been vanquished. they've been strengthened and that is really, really unfortunate. they will continue to use the same tactics. whether it's going on and on about biden's laptop or trying to call for the impeachment of

cabinet members for who know what is reason. they will continue to run rough -- over the process of governing all for a sound bite. all for a political moment where they can claim they are the most extreme and antigovernment in the country. i don't know how that ends for the republican party. if they can't figure out how to elect a speaker with 90% of the republicans in their caucus being in favor of that speaker, i don't know how in the world they're ever going to pull off winning the white house or anything else in the future. >> claire mccaskill, david jolly, alexi, ali vitali, thank you all so much for spending time with us for our marathon coverage of this extraordinary day. we're going to shift gears for a bit. the country is in shock after a 24-year-old football player collapsed on the field last night. it was horrific. a prime time tragedy witnessed by millions of people on live television. human being behind that tragedy.

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zblnchts at 24 years old that was living his dream. that a few hours ago was getting ready to play biggest game of his nfl career and there's probably nowhere else in the

world he wanted to be. and now he fights for his life. we forget that part of living this dream is putting your life at risk. and tonight, you know, we got to see a side of football that is extremely -- >> he didn't see any of his commentary, that was former player, ryan clark. he was that brilliant and on point all night long. as he said, seeing one of the most brutal and heartbreaking sides of this sport that many, many millions of americans love, the story that has reverberated and shattered so many of us. during last night's live game between the bills and bengals, 24-year-old bills safet collapsed on the field after attempting to make a tackle. going into what we now know is

cardiac arrest on the field. we've made a decision here not to show you that moment of injury, of trauma, out of respect for him, his family, his teammates. but what we can tell you is that at approximately 8:55 p.m., hamlin attempted to tackle the wide receiver. he stands up and collapsed on the field. it's horrific. in the immediate aftermath of that injury, the mood in the stadium changes on a dime. the reaction in bills players makes it clear to anyone watching this injury was very different from anything anyone had ever seen before and these players had seen bad things before. players on both teams surrounded him. shielding him. giving him privacy as medical personnel administered cpr for at least ten minutes before the game was temporarily suspended. that came at 9:15. he feels then transported by ambulance. minutes later, he arrived at the university of cincinnati medical center. wasn't a lot of information available last night if you were

watching for it, but the bills today released a statement saying he remains in the icu in critical condition. his fans, family, and the nation waits for news and continues to pray for his recovery. hamlin's family today is thanking fans for the outpouring of support, writing in a statement, this, quote, your generosity and compassion meechbs the world to us. please keep him in our prayers. joining us now, vin gupta. kevin blackestone is back. professor at university of maryland. kevin, it was so shattering and you wanted to watch to learn something that made you feel reassured that he was going to be okay and it was this collective thing of trauma and worry and fear and as all the

coverage sort of pointed to. the reality and ugly side of the danger and physicality of this game. what were your thoughts? >> i had a range of thoughts. and last night when i was talking to your colleague, lawrence o'donnell, and we got an update on the condition of mr. hamlin and it was one of a sigh of relief. that in fact, he was being taken care of. he was intubated and seemed to be recovering somehow, some way. you know, there was a, there was a miracle of medical technology last night. i thought the nfl, 29, 30, 31 people associated with medical technology, there for that game, did a incredible job of coming to his aid, getting him to the hospital at university of

cincinnati. getting him the treatment that he needed. and i thought that we saw a maturity and sensibleties of everyone involved in this sport. you know, back in 1997, reggie brown, a linebacker for the lions, suffered a similar sort of fate. wasn't a heart attack, but couldn't breathe after a collision. he was ambulanced off of the field. the scene was much like we saw with mr. hamlin. the difference is that game went on. and i think last night just showed the maturity in our sensibleties. the game was not critically important. the most important thing was mr. hamlin. and we can play this game some other time. i think that was the thing that really stuck out the me at the end of that night. >> dr. gupta, what is your

understanding with your expertise of what happened and kevin's talking about the recovery will look like? >> sure. good afternoon. so we're very much a little bit past the midway point. that first 24 hours after a cardiac arrest, once in this case, mr. hamlin has been resuscitated with a heart beat back, we really look from say 9:00 p.m. yesterday to 9:00 p.m. tonight eastern time. what does recovery look like and what's his neurologic status? are they able to start weaning him off the ventilator, maybe waking him up. it's probably likely. i've been very careful not to speculate. but he's intubated on a ventilator in a medically induced coma. at some point, and he might be cooled. sometimes we actually cool these patients, making them hype thermic because that improves neurological outcomes.

it's going to be understand what was his neurologic status. was he interacting at any point after his heart beat came back? are they able to rewarm him? usually that happens at about 24 hours if he is being cooled. is he moving his hands say toward his mouth? that's considered a purposeful movement. the reason we're here to answer your question directly, we think what happened was he had a violent hit. a regular nfl tackle, frankly. that was focused on the left side of his chest where his heart is. that impact happened at the exact point that the electrical activity in his heart was doing what it normally does, encouraging a normal heartbeat. it happened at the exact time where basically it was like a fuse went off. normal electrical activity got disrupted and fatal arrhythmia and really the heart doesn't function in that case. the only solution and this is

sort of the key variable moving forward. is how quickly, how quickly did mr. hamlin receive a electrical shock. cpr is fantastic. how quickly did he receive that shock. that's going to predict what his recovery looks like. how quickly he'll be able to come off the support. >> you're both describing a medical need that is so sophisticated and advanced and thank god it was available to this young, brilliant, and incredibly decent and generous human being, but is there conversation to be had about why the most profitable and beloved sport in america requires you know, the most advanced doctors in trauma physicians the world over to protect its players, kevin? >> well, it's an incredibly violent game, and you saw the results of that last night.

unfortunately. i've always thought to myself anytime i go into an nfl locker room, not necessarily after a game, but a day or two after a game and see what those players have gone through and how they're trying to recover so they can do the same thing six, it's absolutely amazing. and so if this game is going to be played and it's going to be played by men who are as large and as strong and as fast as these guys are, then you need to have this sort of medical personnel available should something horrific happen. it is amazing to me that in my years of covering the nfl and college football that i've not seen this sort of result more often, quite frankly.

it's interesting you talk to ryan clark, because ryan clark was involved in a collision against willis mcgaughey in a championship game i mentioned the other day in 2009 that was so violent i call my editors and told them, i'm not going to write about the game, i'm going to write about the collision. so that's what you have with football. and you know, these are the -- this is the protocol that has to be in place. and fortunately for the nfl and for players who get hurt now, there's a lot of personnel right there ready to swoop in and take care of them if they need it. >> i was riveted by ryan clark's commentary last night, kevin, for that exact reason. he talked about that and talked about his teammates coming and worried about whether he would survive that collision. i want to you read you,

dr. gupta, this from the ringer, because it grabbed me and made me ask questions. football has a way of reminding you about his humanity only when it's too late. damar hamlin started monday as the perfect nfl story, a sixth round pick to replace an injured star safety for one of the best teams in football. he gave back to his hometown of pittsburgh every chance he got. he was making it in the nfl. early this season after practice he said, quote, i'm cherishing every moment i can. football can be a ghoulish, cruel sport. a special person in a special opportunity going through one of the sweariest situations in modern history. he has a go fund me for community toy drive, and a lot of people are paying a lot of attention to it. we'll send out information if anybody watching right now wants to contribute to it. dr. gupta, if you can just speak

to this idea that ryan clark captured that kevin is talking about of the violence of the sport. is there a conversation to be had about making it safer? >> absolutely, nicolle. i'll say as a football fan, and many of us are football fans, we're all to some degree complicit in what we're seeing and what happened last night that these things are happening for a reason, and kevin's more expert in this than i am, but from a medical standpoint i'm sure there will be tension if focus mike me say, we need to redefine targeting, crown of the helmet not just hitting helmet, but thoracic, spine. if we start to redefine what it means for a dangerous hit to occur, more than the narrow parameters of targeting as defined today, i think that's going to open up a debate on, is that fundamentally changing the game?

so what's moral, what's ethical, versus what's entertaining. that's the tension here. what i'll say here is there's no silver lining to this tragedy. a cardiac arrest, nicolle, is traumatic when it happens in a hospital setting. in this case the nation watched, players watched it directly in front of them. it's a traumatic event. we have been doing psas intermittently the last three years. to everybody out there, if you see somebody -- because to your point, nicolle, most across the country are not going to have expert medical staff next to them if that happens. if you see somebody that faints next to you, try to check a pulse, see if they're breathing but immediately scream. asking somebody to call 911. that's the fastest thing you can do to save a life potentially. in addition, if possible, learn basic life support cpr. it's something we should all be

credentialed with, maybe when we get our driver's license. this is comprehension we should be lucid in as part of the broader community. >> i went online and signed up for the first aid piece of. that i'll put that information on the website as well. i want to show you something, kevin, that steelers coach mike tomlin had to say as a press conference today. >> i'll say this about damar hamlin. man, it's a really personal thing for me, being a pittsburgher, young man being a pittsburgher, i've known that guy probably since he was about 12, just got a lot of respect and love for him as a human being, his commitment to the pursuit of his goals and dreams, of doing what it is he's doing right now, which is playing in the nfl, and to watch him make personal decisions and make that a realization, it's just an honor to get to know young

people like that. got a lot of love for that young man. we lifted him and that organization up in prayer, reached out to sean mcdermott to lend whatever assistance i could. but i don't have a lot to add other than that. i just respect the fact that you guys appreciate how personal it is for me, not only for me but for all of us. >> it is personal. to fans, they're people we see play a sport brilliantly. when we watch their games televised, but these are, you know, big brothers, father figures. these are young people realizing their dreams, and this is a tight knit universe. what is the larger football community going through, kevin? >> well, it's going through its own trauma and recognition of the game that they play and just how dangerous it is and how, you know, every game, every snap,

every play that's made, it can be very, very -- have a very, very serious outcome for those who are involved in it. and we've seen it time and time again. but i thought the doctor mentioned something that's really important, and somehow -- i don't know really how you do it, but you know, we have to concern ourselves with the entertainment value of the game versus what we saw last night. and i was thinking about this today, because a friend of mine reminded me that in the early 1990s, john madden, whose name is synonymous with modern football, one of our real heroes, who we lost not too long ago, and his name is emblazoned on probably the most popular electronic game, selling nfl football, used to use a montage of an ambulance coming out on the field in the digital game and scooping up a player.

and that's one of the big problems. that's no longer available, i don't believe, but, you know, we dehumanize these players along the line, and last night was we reminder, as mike tomlin said, that these are human beings, that these are sons, brothers, fathers, cousins, and we need to remember that. and so that's why i keep coming back to the fact, i think last night was really maturity in our sensibiliies about this game. >> dr. gupta, kevin, thank you so much for spending some time with us. quick break for us. we'll be right back. break for us we'll be right back. i'd like to thank our sponsor liberty mutual.

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thank you so much for being with us on this busy day of news. "the beat" with ari melber starts right now. >> thank you so much. welcome to "the beat."