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not been the charm for kevin mccarthy. you see the tally on the screen. we are waiting any minute for this vote to officially be closed, and then the question is what happens next? do they try for time number six? where unless something has dramatically changed and we don't think it has, mccarthy will probably lose again. do they try to take a break? what are the concessions that are happening behind the scenes? we have the best team in the biz, here to answer the questions to the best of their abilities including capitol hill correspondent ali vitali and political director and moderator of "meet the press," chuck todd, nbc news colleague, and steve kornacki is posted at the big board and former chief communications adviser to former speaker paul ryan and msnbc political analyst brendan buck is with us, too. if you're looking at this saying, okay, i've been watching this coverage for six hours. what has changed? what is different? what is going to change the moment? here is where we are. kevin mccarthy, as soon as this is gavelled in a second, will have lost five ballots to become speaker. you now that this is the first

time, you know that this is the first time in something like 100 years that that this has happened. and former congressman byron donalds, the latest nominee of the far right never kevin faction that has kept the speakership away from kevin mccarthy vote after vote. a group of 20 republicans opposed and dug in and no signs of letting up any time soon. what is next? maybe more votes and we don't know how many minds have been changed during what has been playing out thanks to the cameras from c-span, watching the house floor. republicans could try to vote to adjourn, press the pause button, try again tonight, tomorrow, and democrats don't want that to happen and potentially a compromised candidate to emerge. and somebody who the mccarthy group can agree on and so-called republican rebels can agree on, et cetera. ali vitali, the question, is when we talk about what has changed and what is different, this is the same story different tune and heading into time

number six. what is interesting that you heard from the last 30, 40 minutes, steve scalise, maybe it is his time now and long speculated about as a potential as somebody who could be the consensus candidate and congresswoman sparks saying we need to take a breather and for real negotiate with the freedom caucus because she doesn't feel comfortable with where this is headed. what happens next? >> i don't know how you get any more real in your negotiations with the freedom caucus, just as an aside, before i answer what's next. because these conversations have been ongoing for weeks, they have certainly been taken seriously, by kevin mccarthy, and it is not in the prior weeks, if not in the prior weeks, then definitely over the course of the last 24 hours, and look, she is probably going to get her way and it is not just her, because what our sources are telling us in the last few minutes, that as we prepare to stretch into ballot round six, of course, they have to finish five before we can do that, but as we stretch into ballot round six, then multiple sources are telling us that lawmakers are

likely to seek to adjourn. it would match what they did yesterday, and three rounds of ballots and then take a break, come back tomorrow, and that's likely what we're going to see them do after they get on to round six, because again, there have been no changes, the same 20 are the same 20 and they're doing the same thing, and the only thing that is changing around here is, the time on the clock and the date on the calendar. you can tell that people are starting to get frustrated. a lot of people, aides, democrats, republicans, a lot of republican lawmakers that i've texted, no one knows where this goes from here. but it's clear that it is intractable and that something needs to change. so ideally, that could shake out overnight, but we're more likely to see again, they will do the sixth ballot, we don't expect any major changes there and likely to move to adjourn. >> chuck, i spoke with congressman fitzpatrick earlier today who is a kevin mccarthy ally and trying to figure out what kind of concessions can they make to this block of 20, it is not a real block, right,

they all have their individual things that they want, some of them just don't want kev, right? there is no negotiating because they don't like him, they don't want to see him as speaker. is the steve scalise thing going to become more real as time goes on? is there somebody else? the fred upton thing, let's be real, scalise seems like he would have maybe the best shot of anybody. >> that's the bet i made six months ago. if i could have gambled on this, i would have, i mean i always thought scalise was the most likely speaker, six months ago. the question is, how does this play out today? or how does this play out tomorrow? i wonder if they have to go the old-fashioned way of doing this the way they used to. >> they already did it the way they did 100 years ago. old fashioned. >> in the sixth round of voting, if it is ken buck nominating steve scalise and get out there and see if he has votes and look, when garfield, got the nomination, his name was put in for president in 1880, but it was sort of like, he wasn't even running until someone decided to put his name in the hat and he

can get some votes, let's see how he does in the next round voting. at this point, you might as well, because it's pretty clear, mccarthy doesn't have the votes and he is not going to get them today so you might as well see is, there any traction, can scalise win a vote that is more than the 20? so i think at this point, they are better off doing the trial with the vote itself today to see if there is one. especially if this group, because it does seem to me, and brendan knows this better than i do, it seems to me there is this group, i had a committee chair say 70% of the conference is for kevin all the way but this other group that is sort of in between. they're with mccarthy, because it's expediency. they want to hurry up and get to work. >> get to work. >> and issue subpoenas. they're ready, whatever it takes. if scalise is the best way to get there, fine. they'll jump to scalise. but i think we're in the, don't try to do this behind the scenes, and do the travel now, and see if you can get more than

20 votes. >> wouldn't that require a steve scalise trial, and acknowledging kevin mccarthy to step aside? >> the only thing that kevin mccarthy has to negotiate is himself. that's the problem he's in. there is no committee assignment. there's no rules committee slot. whatever it is. right? the only thing, the leverage he has left is himself. and that is an important moment. look, if you want to call the bluff of the 20 rebels, give them what they really want, which is, which is kevin mccarthy. and if they're still blocking, then that opens the door to work with the democrats to come up with a compromise speaker. like that is, at some point, there is going to be a group of house republicans that are going to call the bluff of the rebels and say fine, you didn't want mccarthy, we'll give you somebody else, you don't want scalise, forget, we are not working with you at all anymore but if you want to get to the point where you find your compromised speaker, you have to show that scalise doesn't have the votes either? >> brendan?

>> patience. i think that is a little premature for where we are at this point. important to appreciate, and this is getting really into house politics, there is a little friction, maybe at one point a lot of friction, between kevin mccarthy and steve scalise, this has been smoothed over in recent years but there is a level of distrust that exists between the two of them. and if steve scalise emerges right now, even if it is not him putting himself out there, if he emerges as running against kevin mccarthy, that is going to send kevin mccarthy allies into a tizzy. and that's going to i think damage steve scalise. i don't question that steve scalise is on a short list of people most likely to get it, if kevin mccarthy drops out. but i do think if you're talking about an outcome, coming to a conclusion where you actually have a speaker, it is going to require kevin mccarthy to come forward and say i think it is this person's time. i think that we should support him. i'm not, i don't think we're anywhere close to kevin mccarthy saying i'm going to tap steve scalise to be the next speaker,

whether it is because he is not ready to give up yet or there is that friction and i think that would be really painful for him to do. you got to be careful about coming straight out right now. and it would certainly be a bombshell. if some of these 20 come out in the next round, they nominate steve scalise, that would be interesting, that would be very telling, because one of my questions is, wouldn't they all support steve scalise? i don't know they would. and they would probably have to negotiate with him in a lot of the same ways with kevin mccarthy. and we have a long way to go. however direction we go, it is not going to be quick. >> that was the concern initially. the expectation it would go beyond the first ballot. that seemed like it was pretty clear and the question is when do you start floating some of these folks, not the jim jordans who don't want to be being speaker and have no shot. and i am struck by something that was said in the last hour. it is only the second day.

the sun will rise and will set tomorrow, too. how long are some of these rebels, brendan prepared to go? are we talking weeks potentially? or is that bananas? >> that's not bananas at all. i think one of the things that i've been thinking about today is, and a really important moment in house republican conference history, i'll take you back to 2013, if you recall, house republicans led by ted cruz, were part of a government shutdown over the idea of defunding obama care while barack obama was still president. it was one of those things where leadership had what we called the tough the stove moment where we knew it was a bad idea, we knew it was bad politics, we knew it had very little chance to ultimately won a government shutdown fight because we went through it because the members were fired up and a lot of the freedom caucus type member, members leading the opposition, were demanding that we go into a dost shutdown, and fight and we did that for days and days and days, it was a very long shutdown, and it was painful for a lot of the time. but at some point, they realized

that the fight was over. that we weren't going to win. and i remember going into a conference meeting, and the spirit of fight just broke, instantly. overnight. and they all came to the conclusion that they had made their point and there was no other way to give in. i don't know if that scenario is likely to happen again. but that's maybe the kind of thing that kevin mccarthy is banking on. and do we get literally into two and three weeks from now, and going to the conference meeting and he says i told you i was going to stick it out, you are still badly outnumbered and they fold. maybe it's unlikely, but i think that's the dynamic that he's looking for. some type of coming to a realization moment where fundamentals don't really change, they just think that they made their point and give in. >> one of the most fascinating things to watch, as we look at this on screen here has been the conversations that have been happening over the course of the last 40 minutes and again before that between republican member, republican congress members elect, we should say, here in the house of representatives, steve kornacki, the big question

has been on the math, right? what needs to happen here? how many people need to vote present? what about the hypothetical question where democrats have someone as speaker of the house? because us through it. >> what is interesting about the conversation, is what we're tracking all day and you're looking at the republicans who are voting against kevin mccarthy and coming into today there were 20 who voted against him yesterday, and 21st, victoria sparks o-from indiana on the last two ballots have voted present, her rationale seems a little different but the 20 who came in today opposed kevin mccarthy yesterday have opposed him on every vote today and all voted for byron donalds. one thing that is interesting with ken buck, this conversation about ken buck, floating the possibility of steve scalise, he doesn't have to be nominated from the floor in this vote. the interesting thing to me is that buck's name is always one of the first called. it is alphabetical as they do this. buck just said the name steve

scalise, okay, look at this alphabetically, ken buck is voting, four members will have voted before him, there will be 16 of these anti-mccarthy republicans still to come. so if buck gets it rolling just by saying the name steve scalise, do you hear any of these other anti-mccarthy folks pick up on that and also say the name steve scalise? that's something i think i'm now looking for in this next round of voting. because yes, there has been no movement. nobody who has been with kevin mccarthy is actually jumping ship to the anti-mccarthy side today, except as i said, again, victoria sparks, voting present for whatever her reasons are. but nobody who has been against mccarthy has moved over to his side. so they seem completely dug in. and that possibility, to have somebody out there, you know, floating now the name steve scalise, which has been on everybody's mind i think as this

process takes out, i have said before, i'm really interested if somebody early in the alphabet -- >> i have to take you to the house floor because it sounds like the vote is officially getting called. let's listen in for a second. >> will the house be in order?

will the house be in order? >> the tellers agree in their tallies that the total number of votes cast is 433. of which the honorable hakeem jeffries of the state of new york has received 212. [ applause ] >> the honorable kevin mccarthy of the state of california has received 201. [ applause ] >> the honorable byron donalds of the state of florida has

received 20. [ applause ] >> with one recorded as present. no member-elect having received a majority of the votes cast as speaker has not been elected. for what purpose does the gentle woman from florida rise? >> thank you, madam clerk. i rise today to nominate kevin mccarthy as speaker of the people's house. [ applause ] >> the gentlewoman is recognized. >> my colleagues, well, it's round hog day, again, and -- >> will the house be in order? >> thank you, madam clerk.

if it's all right with you all, i would like to address not you, but the american people because quite frankly they are -- [ gavel ]. >> we don't have a speaker yet. so the american people, well, they are our boss, and we work for them. yesterday, as we were here, on the house floor, our constituents from all around the country made their voices heard. today, the calls, the text messages, emails, they all continue. people are letting their voice be heard. and that is a very, very good thing. [ applause ] >> because that is what we are. after all. a constitutional republic. this serves all americans. not just a select few. to all americans watching right

now, i want to tell you that we hear you. we hear you. and we will get this right. no matter how messy this process is, we will emerge better for having been through this. because nothing great ever comes easy. for the last several months, negotiations have gone back and forth, over a rules package, to make this chamber, your chamber, a better place to deliver better results for you, the american people. and i want to remind everyone, watching, listening, here in this chamber, that this chamber, and this body, our country, we are bigger than a single person or a single moment in time. we are a nation collectively a great people, great patriots, and great moments of courage. the rules package that has been highlighted by so many of my colleagues dictates how this

chamber functions, how bills come to the floor, how much time we get to read these bills, whether or not we will get single issue bills, and whether or not we can vote proxy. and as you have witnessed from events yesterday, so many people have said what are the next steps? what will we accomplish if we continue down this current path? will we wake up tomorrow and be in this exact same place? the people calling my office, said over and over and over again, it is time to get to work. anything less is unacceptable. and you know, as we stood on this house floor yesterday, and again today, over 200 people were poisoned from fentanyl. fentanyl that came from an open border because of the biden open border policy. over 5,000 people were encountered at the border because of biden's open border

policies. these are the issues that people care about. they don't sit around their kitchen tables at night saying i wonder who is going to be speaker. no, they elect people to come here to do the things that matter. the issues that impact them every single day. and in an era of uncertainty, the last thing they need is uncertainty within this chamber. we were elected to be the voice of our constituents. we are their voice in this chamber. and they didn't send us to be perpetual critics. they sent us to get things done. [ applause ] >> and as we all know, because after all, we are in politics, the line of critics is always long. but the list of those that are actually rolling up their

sleeves and doing the difficult job of leading, of uniting, of delivering results, especially in a chamber like this, well that list is very short. kevin mccarthy has proved that he can get things done. he has proven that he is willing to stand up in the face of critics. and not only prove them wrong, but work with them. the only thing sovereign in this republic are its people and they have deemed it right to place a check on the biden administration and put our party, the republican party, in control of this chamber. now is the time that we take control. i understand a lock of trust amongst some of our colleagues. i do. [ gavel ]. >> will the house be in order. >> i understand a lack of trust among some of our colleagues. but what i am asking, what am i

asking is that we all trust the american people who sent our colleagues here. this house is the only part of the federal government that stands for election every two years. therefore, this chamber is an instrument of the people's will. and the people have overwhelmingly voted for kevin mccarthy. [ applause ] >> if we continue down this road, if we continue with the actions of yesterday and today, we stifle the will of the american people. the changes to the rules of this place and how it functions have been overwhelmingly positive in the last few weeks. length lation stands ready. it is time to i.e. unite, roll up of our sleeves and get to work doing the people's business. the gentleman, my friend, kevin mccarthy from california, has

done more than anyone in this chamber to secure a republican majority. many of the people who are members here today are quite frankly here because of his leadership, because they have trusted him, and he has gone out of his way to make sure that every single one of his has had a voice at the table. furthermore, every single returning republican in this chamber who cast a vote two years ago, in the last congress, voted for kevin mccarthy, as our leader. we were united then. and we must unify now. that's the only way to start the people's business, the very reason that we're all here, is to unify and get to work, because we must commit to unity instead of division, because we owe it to the american people who sent us here, we must choose to lead, in the face of a liberal senate and obama's jb team in the white house, we owe it to the american people. the american people sent a

conservative majority to govern this body. but we cannot even begin to govern because heck, we can't even swear in as members of congress. i traveled the country for the last two years, as the youngest republican woman in the 117th congress, hoping to secure a majority of members who are on both sides of today's republican vote. diversity of thought is a good thing. it is one of the things that sets us apart from our friends on the other side of the aisle. yes, diversity of thought is a good thing. but they want us divided. they want us to fight each other. that much has been made clear by the popcorn and blankets and alcohol that is coming over there. the house is not in order. [ gavel ]. >> the house is not in order.

>> the clerk would ask all members-elect to abide by the decorum of the house while making nominations. the gentlewoman is recognized. >> as evidenced by my colleagues' actions -- [ gavel ]. >> so today, i am asking, my friends and colleagues, are we the party of reagan republicans, reagan who said someone who is with me, 80% of the time is a loyal and good friend, not a 20% traitor. are we the party of reagan? that is the question that i ask you to answer, as we embark on

this next ballot. it's upon us to remain a nation of equal opportunity, not equal outcome. that is what is on the line here today, and that is why i am nominating kevin mccarthy and i humbly ask for your support. madam clerk, i yield back. [ applause ] >> for what purpose does the gentleman from california rise? >> madam clerk, i rise to nominate hakeem jeffries as speaker of the house, the final vote getter in the last five rounds. >> the gentleman is recognized. [ applause ]

>> madam clerk, democrats are united behind a speaker who will build safer communities. he's a leader in gun violence prevention, he has worked to make our criminal justice system more fair, more equitable, and more effective and he's done it working with both sides of the aisle. a leader who has a track record in actually getting things done. and he understands that public safety, public health, and economic opportunity must go hand in hand. that's why at the direction of the democratic caucus, i advance the name of hakeem jeffries, from brooklyn, new york, as our next speaker for the 118th congress. [ applause ]

>> for what purpose does the gentlemen from pennsylvania rise? >> madam speaker, to nominate the gentleman from florida, mr. donalds. >> the gentleman is recognized. >> thank you. ladies and gentlemen, no matter what side of the aisle you're on, no matter what your political persuasion, one thing is universally recognized across this country. washington is broken. washington is completely broken. whether it's a wide open border, millions of people streaming across, trosts, criminals, fentanyl coming right to your community, not at the border, but into your community. overdoses happening in your towns. funerals happening in your town because the border is open. because this place is broken. 12 days ago, in the middle of night, 4,000 pages showed up over here, set six and a half, or 2.7 trillion, 1.7, sorry,

$1.7 trillion in spending, 7,200 earmarks, 24 hours time to read it, it is like a christmas tree right before christmas that nobody outside of this town wanted. if you've been here for one year, you voted on that once. if you've been here for three years, you voted on the same thing three times. if you've been here for ten times, you voted on it ten times. washington is broken. we got crime running across the streets. no matter what community you're in. because now, this town has decided that somehow the criminals aren't understood, and we've abandoned the victims. this is what people in our country are dealing with. we are funding wars in other countries, while we're destroying our own military, because this town is broken. we have an administration that has contempt for the american people, and is using these big corporations to spy on americans, and using the

instruments of federal power to persecute and prosecute them, because this town is broken. and this place is literally broken. there hasn't been an amendment on the floor for six years in this town. so if you're not on the committee of jurisdiction, but it affects your citizens, well, too bad for you, you just vote yes or you just vote no. that's not how this place was designed to be. we vote on bills that have all kinds of things that have nothing to do with the bill itself. everybody came here because they said to their constituents this town is broken, and i want to fix it. well, how are you going to fix it if you come to this town and just step right in line and keep doing the same things that everybody has done before you? it's not going to fix it. and the american people know it. and i would say this. i think the person that has done the most, that has done the most, to make this fabulous,

this wonderful republican majority, is speaker pelosi, and her policies. that's what has achieved this majority over here, because the american people are sick and tired of it, and they've had enough of it. now, this is not about, this is not about personalities. it's not about personalities. it's about the policies that come out of here. it is not about personalities on this side of the aisle or that side of the aisle. we believe, and we want to believe -- we believe, and we want to believe that every person that comes here, left, right, center, has the best intentions for our country. the best intentions for our country. and it's not about the personalities in this contest. it is not personal for us. but because we all acknowledge

and we all know that washington is broken, we must take a new path. there must be a new vision. so that congress works for the american people. because the american people are watching what is happening here and they've watched what has happened here, and they're sure in their hearts, and they can prove it, that this town works for this town. that's who this town is working for. ladies and gentlemen, we are making history today. we are making history in this process. and we are showing the american people that this process works. yes, it's been about 100 years. it's been about 100 years since this has happened before. but we have said we're not going to take any more of washington being broken. we're going to do something for the american people, and we're going to fix it. and is it going to be painful? and is it going to be difficult? yes, it probably. is that's why it took 100 years.

it probably is. but we're going to do it. and we can also make history today by making the first -- [ gavel ]. >> will the house be in order. >> by electing the first black republican speaker of the house. [ applause ] >> yes, thank you. >> now, as my colleagues probably know, the first black members of congress, to serve in this body, were republicans. were republicans. as a matter of fact, you probably also know that frederick douglas, who went and worked with abraham lincoln to emancipation the people of color in this country said he would never be anything but a republican, would never be anything but a republican. i am here to nominate byron donalds because he has accomplished many things. he is a man of faith.

he is a family man. he is a business man. and he is a man of community service. he's come from the school of hard knocks. because not all outcomes in life are equal, but america is the place where we can each do great things regardless of our humble beginnings. each one of us. now byron is a product of a single family where it is not easy, it's not easy, but he has succeeded in america, and that's a testament to what we have created here, and what we're trying to say, he's got a record of accomplishing things. he has a record of being on the right side. he is respected. he is trusted. he is capable. and he achieves results. now, byron has a big mind and he's big in stature as well. he's very nice, but i will tell you this, in a negotiation, in a negotiation with chuck schumer, i sure wouldn't want be to be on the other side of byron donalds

is, he knows who he is, he knows what his foundation is, and he knows what that washington is broken and what chuck schumer sends over here is not going to work out for the american people. ladies and gentlemen, washington is broken. byron donalds will inspire us and restore our citizens' faith that this institution actually works for them and it is my highest honor to nominate the gentleman from florida byron donalds to be the next speaker of the house. and i yield. [ applause ] >> the reading clerk will call the roll.

aderholt? mccarthy. aguilar? jefferys. alford? mccarthy. allen? mccarthy. amodei? mccarthy. armstrong? mccarthy. arrington? mccarthy. auchincloss? jeffries.

bacon? mccarthy. baird? mccarthy. balderson? mccarthy balint? jeffries barr? mccarthy. barragan? jefferys. bean of bentz? mccarthy. bera? jeffries.

bergman? beyer? jeffries. bice? mccarthy. biggs? donalds. bilirakis? mccarthy. bishop of georgia? jeffries. bishop of north carolina? donalds. blumenauer? jeffries. blunt

jeffries. bost? bost? mccarthy. bowman? jeffries. boyle of pennsylvania? jeffries. brecheen? donalds. brown? jeffries.

brownley? jeffries. buchanan? mccarthy. buck? buck? bucshon? mccarthy. budzinski? jeffries. burchett? mccarthy. burleson? mccarthy. bush? jeffries. calvert? mccarthy. cammack? mccarthy.

carl? mccarthy. carson? jeffries. carter of georgia? mccarthy. carter of louisiana? jeffries. carter of

case? jeffries. casten? jeffries. castor of florida? jeffries. castro of cicilline? jeffries. ciscomani? mccarthy. clark of massachusetts? jeffries. clark of new york? jeffries

clyburn? jeffries. clyde? donalds. >> and with that, and with the caveat as always that the vote has not been closed, the vote has not been gavelled but if this holds, again, kevin mccarthy does not have the votes to become the next speaker of the house. for the sixth time, over the course of two days, steve kornacki is joining us, and steve, i'll go right to you on the math here. >> it is very simple. once you get to five voting for somebody other than kevin mccarthy, five republicans, which we did, in the first five here, the first five we've been tracking the republicans who have not been voting for kevin mccarthy on previous ballots, just alphabetically, filling them in as they vote, one, two, three, four five. when you got to michael cloud of

texas, that meant five republicans had voted for somebody other than kevin mccarthy, and just mathematically at that point, as long as every democrat votes for hakeem jeffries and he again finishes with 212, there is no way, even when you get into scenarios involving people voting present or abstaining, there is no way for kevin mccarthy to win on this ballot. so sixth ballot, kevin mccarthy, barring something totally unforeseen and frankly inconceivable at this point, is going to go down to defeat again, and not only that, the pattern is holding here, where it is not like you're seeing a couple of names, and anybody peeling off here, you're seeing the exact same form. we haven't seen any of the -- the one name that we were talking about -- >> ken buck. >> i was going to bring it up. >> quen buck. now, he did this -- ken buck. now he did this on the last vote too, they came out to his name, and he didn't call a preference and then at the end, they will loop around, about 15 did this

often the last ballot did this, and they will come back. and it will be curious they waited to the last ballot and they came around to the end and he said mccarthy and what piqued everybody's interest between the votes he started sending indications this is the last time he is voting kevin mccarthy and try to start a stampede for scalise or something early on. we will hear from ken buck presumably though at the very end now, as he's got any plans there to put the name of scalise or somebody else into the mix. but otherwise, everything else is holding to form. mccarthy will not have the votes on this ballot. you can see the others. these have been the other hold juts as you go through there. hard to imagine who will change their mind in the sixth round at this point. we'll see. the other thing we're looking for, too, are there any other additional kevin mccarthy defections on this vote. it has been 20 votes against him. it is today, one voting present. and we'll see if there is any additional. so far, no. >> steve kornacki, thank you. chuck todd, let me go to you here. >> look, at this point, they

obviously need to go through the motion. and i do wonder about the scalise trial, and they clearly didn't want to do it and i think it is pretty clear now byron donalds is all in, he clapped for the nominating speech, our cameras caught that and if he was trying to be a broker, he is no longer a broker, jim jordan is still a broker here, he clearly told these guys, start putting my name up. and they acquiesced to him at some point. >> byron donalds was on the step of the capitol right before this vote. >> so you do wonder here. but again, i go back to the only thing left for kevin mccarthy to negotiate is himself. >> and assuming the sixth ballot will go the way we expect it to go and probably another hour that they will be open and there is a motion to adjourn, and everybody agrees to it, they go home, what is the next four hours, what do they look like? >> to me, it is how many people are willing to go two weeks with kevin mccarthying on this? who is willing to die on the

hill? we know his opponents are willing to go. it is pretty clear. this chaos is a feature for them now. this nilist wing, whatever you want to call it, oh, my god, i can't believe they're doing, this they're embarrassing the party, i hear from republican friends, they don't see it that way, right? so the question is, how dug in are the pro-mccarthy forces? are they willing to go, as brendan described, that was the weirdest government shutdown we ever had, because it was like shutting doong amongst themselves, and it actually got mcconnell elected governor of virginia and that government shutdown doesn't happen, the irony is republicans would have won the virginia governor's race. they snatched the defeat from the jaws of victory on that one. you can wear them down but it will take weeks not hours. a lot of people like kevin mccarthy. do they love him?

>> as it was pust in the "washington post," his support is a mile wide and an inch deep. >> i think that's generous. >> chuck todd, you have to get downstairs for your other show. garrett haake, ryan nobles, brendan buck. and the vote continues to be open and we're looking at the numbers on tally on the screen and to chuck's points, are allies of kevin mccarthy ready to hang with him for two weeks if that is what it takes? and what does tonight look like for kevin mccarthy and his team? >> i couldn't speak to the two-week time line specifically but kevin mccarthy allies is not just hanging with limb, it is hanging against the 10% of the conference who is trying to override the rail of the other 90%. and remember, this is not the first, it is the sixth, and it is not the sixth, it is really the seventh time kevin mccarthy's name has been put up for speaker because there was also the closed door ballot back in november in which he won an overwhelming majority at that

time of his conference. if you have been paying close attention, you heard pete augilar, nominating hakeem jeffries, based on the will of our caucus results, i nominate jeffries. the republican conference has smoken to. they spoke in the closed door meeting and the 90% of republicans don't want to throw out their process and hand the keys over to a 10% group. they want their process to hold. they want their rules to do business the way they have done business to hold and perhaps more than kevin mccarthy who is the standard-bearer. 10% of the house, if they can control them on, this they can control them on anything else a and that's not what this group, this group is not willing to do that, especially if you're one of the members from a joe biden district, if you're from a battleground district, you're not going to let scott perry decide what's going to happen in the republican house for the next two years? no chance. whether this is two weeks or gets bloodier and nastier and start doing this all night long, as opposed to a relatively gentlemanly three votes and go

home for the day. i think the pro-mccarthy votes, pro-house order folks, are willing to stick this out for kwooil quite a while longer, too. >> the noon to 6:00 schedule makes it easier garrett and you have to wonder how long it will last. >> thank you, friend. >> ryan nobles, let turn to you. and if the reporting holds and there are question marks and things hold as the plans that we think are going to hold do and by 6:00 tonight, we will probably be done, right? if in fact the house does vote to adjourn, they're all going to come back tomorrow morning and we will wake up in the morning and wait for the house to come into session and it will be okay, what changed? now what? are we going to do another round of three votes that have the same result as this one? what needs to happen by let's say 11:00 a.m. tomorrow to change the game here? not for kevin mccarthy, but bu the grandiose statement here, for america, right, to actually get a functioning congress in place? >> hallie i think the only exit

strategy at this point would be for kevin mccarthy to step down. there isn't enough negotiating room right now that could happen, i think, in that short of a period of time that would lead to him becoming the next speaker or an alternative speaker to be placed in. i think that they're still too pretty far apart on a lot of these issues. we're still at the staring contest point in these negotiations. one of the things i specifically asked him is like how long are you willing to hold out, and he kind of laughed at that. he was like this is only day two, even the ground hog day movie was ten days long before bill murray started to lose it. that seems to me to be a pretty entrenched posture, and donald's kind of shrugged off the criticism that there isn't now a functioning house of representatives in the event of a national security incident.

he said that most americans are getting up and going to school, are taking their kids to school, are going to their jobs or getting their coffee in the morning, and the last thing that they're worried about is that they don't have an official representative in congress to take care of their needs, and he thinks this kind of negotiating period is worth the struggle. so from that point of view, there doesn't seem to be that level of desperation yet where people will be willing to kind of throw their chips in the middle of the table and say i'm all in. i do think that this is -- we should be taking the over in terms of our bet in how long this process will play itself out. and then when you look beyond, even if kevin mccarthy were to step down at this point, i don't think we're at a stage yet where there's a true alternative that is in place. we saw some of the breakaway caucus people go and talk to steve scalise on the floor. who knows what to make of that, you know, but it's pretty clear that any of these alternative candidates who might be able to

win over the conservative faction are still solidly behind kevin mccarthy. this is a process, it's going to take time. i would not be surprised if we're having the same exact conversation at this time tomorrow, hallie. >> ryan nobles, thank you for that. i know you have more work to do on "nightly news." i'm going to bring in brendan buck here. >> i was curious to see in the nominating speeches, you saw a little breakdown in decorum, a lot of shouting. it was interesting to me that they couldn't really keep order because there are no rules, but what that shows is nerves are fraying a little bit, and i think maybe that's a good thing for kevin mccarthy because i think he needs nerves to fray a lot. but what probably struck me more than anything was scott perry's speech, he's a freedom caucus leader nominating byron donald, and just a little window into the alternate reality that he and other people live in.

his complaint was, if you've been in congress for two years, you've had to vote to fund the government for ten years. scott perry's problem isn't with kevin mccarthy. it's with the realities of governing. he doesn't -- he wants a speaker that will never have to negotiate with democrats. he wants a speaker that will be able to guarantee only conservative policy outcomes at every term, and i'm sorry, that just doesn't exist. no matter who scott perry ends up supporting for speaker, even if it's one of his freedom caucus allies is going to disappoint him because there is no reality in which only conservative things happen, and they have this mind-set that if you just fight harder some days you can just overpower people with your might, and that's just not the reality, particularly in divided government, but that's the problem kevin mccarthy has. he's dealing with people who are not rational, who don't necessarily want anything other than this fantasyland that scott perry lives in.

it speaks to the long road he has ahead of him, and potentially shows you that he's going to need a lot more people breaking down decorum before this wraps up. >> brendan buck, thank you, i'm sure we'll talk again in the hours and days to come. let me sneak in conor lamb, thank you for being with us. we only have like 90 seconds left in show. you have such an interesting perspective here. you know what it's like to be a member of the party voting against somebody who everybody else wants to be the leader of that party. walk us through what this must be like on the floor here. >> it's very different from what i went through because in the democratic party, although we have differences of opinion, we also are adult enough to resolve them among ourselves and not show this kind of thing to the country. what i think these members are going through is a realization that scott perry and the others their policies are unpopular, what they are demanding from kevin mccarthy is basically to shut down the government, privatize social security, have stingier medical care so we can have a smaller budget. their members will lose

elections and they will lose power if they pursue that or the government will get down. i agree with your previous guy, it's not really about kevin mccarthy. it's about the ideas underpinning this debate, and the republicans who are with perry are just so far out of the mainstream of where everyday americans are that whether they elect a speaker here or not, they're going to lose him again because they're on the wrong side of these issues. >> any doubt in your mind that democrats will do anything but keep making it difficult for republicans here? >> i don't think they're the ones making it difficult for republicans. i think the republicans are making it difficult for themselves. >> indicate democrats are not trying to vote to adjourn, they're not trying to figure out a consensus candidate. >> they're winning every ballot, what i would be doing if i was them is talking to the moderate republicans that still exist and say, look, we're only six votes away.

hakeem is a new candidate, a new young leader that brings a fresh voice to the house. those moderate republicans should be coming to us to govern this country: i think it's possible. they may need to lose a little patience before they see the light. our 212 votes are solid. they're not going anywhere. >> conor lamb from the great commonwealth of pennsylvania. thanks to all of you for watching a lot of msnbc today. i'll see you at 5:00 on our streaming channel. nicolle picks it up with "deadline" right after the break. e unlike older medicines, ubrelvy is a pill that directly blocks a protein believed to be a cause of migraine. do not take with strong cyp3a4 inhibitors. most common side effects were nausea and tiredness. migraine pain relief starts with u learn how abbvie could help you save. ask about ubrelvy, the anytime, anywhere migraine medicine. there's always a fresh deal on the subway app. like this one!

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