the world through their lens and invest accordingly. you can call us christmas eve at four o'clock in the morning. we're gonna always make sure that you have all of the financial tools and support to secure your financial future. that means a lot for my community and for every community. she's feeling the power of listerine. he's feeling it. yep, them too. it's an invigorating rush... ...zapping millions of germs in seconds. for that one-of-a-kind whoa... ...which leaves you feeling... ahhhhhhh listerine. feel the whoa! ♪♪ it's the top of the hour. i'm chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york. we're now about one hour away from the house reconvening to try once again to choose a

speaker. we do know house republicans joined a conference call to talk about a possible new deal on the table. but multiple people on the call tell nbc news, kevin mccarthy acknowledges he still does not have enough votes to become speaker after 11 rounds. we spoke with kevin mccarthy ahead of that call and this is what he >> this is all leaving one-third of our government functionally paralyzed just as the nation marks the second anniversary of the january 6th attack on the capitol. "politico" making the note that, quote, a handful of republicans

who remained in the january 6th sights throughout its investigations are now leading the effort to deny mccarthy the speakership. one officer who defended lawmakers on january 6th pointed out the irony of what's happening on the hill right now. >> no matter what anybody's thoughts about which way it's going, the right that think -- the fact that they have the right to be able to do that in a safe environment is kind of what we provided them two years ago. it's just ironic what's going on now. >> ahead, how the white house and lawmakers are marking this somber anniversary. i'll also talk with democratic congressman colin allred about how everything is playing out today. also this morning, we just got that huge update from the buffalo bills on damar hamlin. his breathing tube has been removed, he even facetimed with his teammates. what he told them ahead. but we start with

dysfunction on the capitol hill and a fourth day with no speaker. nbc's ali vitali has been roaming the halls and getting information. also with me, brendan buck who has advised the last two republican speakers. ali, you have new reporting on that gop conference call. what's happening right now? >> yeah, chris, they were in the q&a portion when i last put my phone down and stopped texting our sources. my colleague and i just trying to get a sense of what's being said on this phone call. and really it sounds like they're playing some sort of shakespearian game of what's in a name. what do they mean by deal? this is true last night when we were checking our sources when they were leaving the capitol, there is a deal that gets kevin mccarthy more votes, it can shake things loose from the 20 no votes he's had to getting closer to the number he needs to become speaker. but it's not all of them. that's why there's no deal

outright that makes him speaker today. the upshot here is that they're still working on it. so what we could see and this is what's going to play out in realtime when we get to the floor at noon is, if this framework of a deal that gets him a few more votes actually shows up in the vote tally when people go to the chamber today, because, again, the name of the game here is forward progress. mccarthy can't be seen to be stagnant. he has to have something to show for these negotiations. because there is a frustration that's ultimately going to start boiling of how much longer can they keep treading water in place without showing that they have something to show for it. that's really what we're going to watch for at noon. on this call, one of the things that mccarthy said to members is, i'm not telling you we have an agreement, but we're in a good position and are having meetings. that's where we are today now on day four, i think it is. >> yeah, and i guess, brendan, we're parsing. we don't know what's going to happen. it depends on what the meaning

of the word deal is and if you get one or two is that enough to shock people or to say that it's good progress. i mean, realistically, somebody who has been on the inside of these kinds of fights -- there's never been a fight exactly like this. somebody who has been on the inside, what do you think he needs to show today that would send a message to his caucus, okay, it's worth sticking with, or we should be looking at another idea here? >> yeah, today is going to be interesting. either they're going to go back and have the exact same vote that they've been having for three or four days now, i forget what day we're on. and they just say that they're still in the middle of talks. if they come to a deal, however you want to define deal and he only picks up one, two, three, four people, that's hugely problematic for kevin mccarthy. he's throwing everything heck at this. and a deal needs to have movement. but there's not a whole lot more

that he can give at this point. if he makes a deal and only picks up maybe a quarter of these people and there's still a healthy group of opposition, that's tough. if he is able to cut a deal, that cuts the opposition in half. then you can start isolating those people, you can work time and pressure. but you're running into a weekend here where you're going to start maybe having attendance problems as well. this day could really be important for how long kevin mccarthy is able to stick this out. keep an eye on how many votes this deal brings or whether they decide they can take a break for the weekend because they might have an attendance issue. >> i think that's what mccarthy was referencing when he talked about the fact that a couple of members have family issues. look, "politico" reported that on thursday, ken buck of colorado fell ill. his colleagues had to convince him to go home and rest. wesley hunt wants to get back to texas because his wife gave birth this week.

kevin hern's mother's died this week. this is daddy duty. jimmy gomez brought his baby to the house floor. he's been bottle feeding and changing diapers in the backroom. democrats as well. what are the implications for mccarthy with these very realistic things? i've got a funeral, my mom died, my wife just had a baby and i'm sick. >> these are the kinds of things that you always deal with as running a legislature. the problem is, there usually aren't such high stakes. there isn't such a small, narrow majority. weekend sessions are rare because people have lives and they have things going on. and you always miss people. but the stakes aren't usually so high. look, i don't think kevin mccarthy wants people to go home for the weekend. his whole play here is pressure and keeping people here and wearing them out. and i think sending people home, letting them get refreshed and do whatever they want to do will

only stretch this out longer. so i think it's actually in his incentive to keep people here. the problem is, if all the democrats are able to stick around and he's losing his votes, he's not moving forward in any way. so not a lot of good options for him. he has to show meaningful progress on whatever this deal looks like. >> you're going to be back with us later this hour. ali, come back to us if you get more information about what's happening on that call. thanks to both of you. of course, looming over today's events on the hill is the second anniversary of the january 6th attack on the capitol. in just a couple of hours, president biden will hold a ceremony honoring a host of americans who defended our democracy that day and last hour on the steps of the capitol we saw democratic leader hakeem jeffries hold a remembrance ceremony with other members of the congress. i want to bring in garrett haake who is on the hill and kelly o'donnell is at the white house and danell harvin who oversaw

the response to the attack on our capitol is here. just as the anniversary was approaching we saw the division. republicans have long opposed, removed earlier this week, what's the mood on the capitol today? >> it's somber. everyone remembers where they were on that day. i was standing right here for hours and hours and hours watching as the attack unfolded. members being back in that chairman today when it opens in noon will be a powerful moment for many of them and getting rushed into hiding places where they had to stay the day. that memory is going to be with everyone who is here that day. with republicans taking control, there is somewhat of an effort to turn the page from it. until this debacle with the speaker's race began, there was

no plan for an event like the one hakeem jeffries led this morning on the house steps. lawmakers within the supposed to be here today and there was no plan in either chamber to mark this day. now you've got republicans kind of forced to reckon with an anti-small “d” faction in their ranks and trying to move on with an election result and the echoes are going to be with us every day. as we look at the way that january 6th has been dealt with in both the political arena and the security arena, we've all paid a lot of attention to what's gone on with the politics, with january 6th, with the finding of political fault by that committee leaving it at the feet of donald trump. but on the security side, that has been less closely watched, i would argue, and the former chief of the capitol police told me in an interview he thinks january 6th could very well happen again from a security standpoint. here's what he said in our interview. >> i'm very afraid january 6th

could happen again. it was a tragic day. security should not be politicized. you've got to keep politics out of security and let somebody make a decision that doesn't have, you know, political oversight committees pressuring them one way or another. intelligence has to be more effective and coordinated. the department of defense, they need to pay attention to their directives and not be politicized. >> just about every individual involved in the security response in the leadership level on that day is gone. the sergeant at arms are no longer here. the pentagon leadership has changed. and the new capitol police chief pushed back a little bit against one some are pointing out, all the new officers who have been hired here and the effort to turn capitol into an intelligence and a protection bureau, not just a traditional police department. that effort was under way. now it's under way with greater

speed in the hopes that with not just the political causes could be addressed, but the security causes of what led to the attack could prevent something like this happening again. >> you testified three times before the january 6th committee and you have a new op-ed out in "politico" where you say the january 6th committee's report does not fully contextualize or analyze the vital security issues or failures that took place. you heard the chief there. what security issues trouble you still today. >> well, the chief is talking about the protection of the actual capitol. and while i have no intensic knowledge about what they're doing right now to make things better, i will tell you that the elements that attack the capitol, the hate, the extremism that came to that building two years ago was still out there. the prosecutions that the doj have done 800 or so people, it's a drop in the bucket of what we

saw online and we continue to see to this day. and so while the capitol may be safer, people at home in your home states, home jurisdictions, you're not necessarily safer because the actual infrastructure that allowed the capitol in all of the intelligence and information sharing flaws that occurred that day is still out there. and the committee left a lot of meat on the bone in terms of how to analyze what we're doing going forward as a homeland security security enterprise. >> what does need in your mind to be done about it? >> well, the chief, the former chief said it really eloquently, we need to stop politicalizing intelligence and security. but going forward, there's a whole slew of recommendations that we discussed with the committee that never made it to actual print. the first thing is that the -- the district of columbia has a very robust and dedicated

national guard force. unfortunately, that force cannot be brought to bear by the district of columbia's mayor. it's the only national guard in the nation that cannot be called out by the chief executive. the d.o.d. in congress needs to look at how that force is deployed. there's other larger systemic issues that were on display on doesn't tackle. there's other issues in terms of how the fusion centers in the country, the state and local intelligence hubs, how they're funded, how much manpower they have, what they can do to assist in the counterterrorism mission, that the actual report wants us to move towards, but they don't point to anybody or make any recommendations on who is taking the lead. and lastly, there's a problem -- there's a disconnect between

intelligence agencies in this country. we have an office -- the office of the director of national intelligence and they oversee really foreign intelligence gathering and analysis and they relegate the domestic side intelligence to the fbi and department of homeland security and we see from the transcripts and from the committee report that those two agencies aren't really collaborating effectively. and so what we need is more oversight about how domestic intelligence is done. >> so, kelly o'donnell, much to look at moving forward. but it is also a day of remembering and one of the things the white house is remembering today is people who have defended democracy, who have done their jobs and done them well. tell us about what we're doing to see a little bit later on and what we're going to hear from president biden. >> reporter: part of what stands out is that no plan on the hill to mark the day because they weren't intending to be in town.

the biden white house made careful plans to mark this day and evolve how the country looks at january 6th. not only about the violence and the dangers that day represented but trying to move forward to say how can the country and the president shine a light on those citizens who in their own individual ways were able to be defenders of democracy. and so the president will award the citizens metal to 12 americans who were a part of that day and a part of the larger issues that that day represents. so you'll have people who were a part of the events of that day, capitol police officers who we have come to know, city of washington metropolitan police officers, also people who were part of the electoral process, who were working in georgia as an example, election workers who were a part of the hate that was directed at them, also elected officials in different

jurisdictions around the country who have been subjected to some of the pressures and withstood that pressure and did what was necessary to follow election law and to uphold their own duties and responsibilities. you'll see that range of citizens who stood in the breach, if you will, did their jobs, performed their service, either volunteer or as a part of their duties, as law enforcement or elected officials and helped to hold the line. and that's part of what president biden will honor today and it is in some ways to say thank you for what they did and in some ways to be a source of inspiration for other americans as we've just talked about the ongoing threats and the dangers that may still exist, that there are americans who are willing to step up. so that's what president biden will honor today. chris? >> thank you all for being with us. former capitol police chief steven sund will join katy tur

this afternoon on msnbc. and we are keeping our eyes on the halls of congress for any signs of movement or breakdowns in kevin mccarthy's negotiations. i'll talk to one democratic member about that party's strategy. plus, a strong new jobs report out this morning with unemployment at the lowest levels in years. the reaction from the markets and the fed. and this is a live look at a press conference with the buffalo bills who have just given a major update on nfl safety damar hamlin after his on-field collapse on monday. he's now talking and even facetimed with his teammates from his hospital bed. we'll have the latest on his recovery. so it's decided, we'll park even deeper into parking spaces so people think they're open. surprise. [ laughs ] [ horn honks, muffled talking ] -can't hear you, jerry. -sorry. uh, yeah, can we get a system where when someone's bike is in the shop, then we could borrow someone else's? -no! -no! or you can get a quote with america's number-one motorcycle insurer and maybe save some money while you're at it. all in favor of that. [ horn honking ]

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we just got a look at the final jobs report from 2022. the u.s. economy added 223,000 jobs while the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%. right now the markets are

reacting, up almost 550 points. last hour i spoke to labor secretary marty walsh. here's part of what he said about the administration's economic progress. >> what the president said today is absolutely right. his plan is working. there's no question about it. and he -- i didn't see his speech, but i'm sure he acknowledged that we still have work to do when it comes to inflation. we've seen some pressures come down this past year and we need to continue that momentum moving into 2023. >> joining me now contessa brewer, roben farzad. great to have both of you here. so walk us through these numbers. what they signal about where our economy could be heading in 2023. >> and, chris, nice to see you. i have to say, it feels like the team is back together again. the jobs number was a surprise, increasing 223,000 when what was largely expected was an add of

200,000. the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. but it was expected that it would not change from the 3.7%. we would anticipate a stronger than expected jobs market -- jobs number to spook the market which wants to see the fed pulling back on interest rate hikes. why are we seeing stocks climbing today? it's because average hourly earnings rose a lot less than expected, 0.3% over last november. and november's wage number was revised lower. and that indicates slowing wage inflation. if companies don't have to pay their workers as much, then they don't have to hike prices as much and lower inflation overall. that is the fed's goal. atlanta fed president told cnbc last hour the jobs number does not affect his outlook, that he expects another rate interest to above 5% and holding through 2024. but he also said, recession is not his base case expectation,

chris. >> so, we just heard secretary walsh responding saying we we still have to worry about inflation but we're moving in the right direction. are we? >> it's hard to snuff out inflation. in a goldilocks world you would have 3.5% on employment and maybe maximum 3% inflation. back when i would do a ton of cnbc and msnbc with contessa, we thought we had killed it. and it came back with a ferocity. we threw so much at the pandemic economy and flirted with this boogeyman and this boogeyman comes out and terrifies us. you want to keep rates at 5 and a quarter percent, does anybody realize what you're talking about. we haven't felt that kind of tightness in a long time.

so i think the market on certain days is worried, the market on other days is going to be euphoric because you have a low wage number. >> i wonder if -- and i asked this question of the secretary and he said he doesn't like to talk about what the fed might or might not do, but could they cool the next rate hike from the fed? >> i don't see any indication of that. they're meeting in february. they've telegraphed there's at least 50 basis points coming ahead. we had more than four points of rate hikes in 2022 in a year that we saw the second highest job growth in recent history. i wonder how high rates can go and how long they have to keep them that high to get the economy to cry uncle. you have the white house cheering really low unemployment and you have the federal reserve biting its nails saying are we doing enough about inflation? it's separate worlds apart. >> our thanks to contessa, our old friend, who had to go and to roben farzad, thank you as well. appreciate it.

>> thank you. coming up, a remarkable turnaround for damar hamlin after he collapsed in the middle of the monday night football game this week. the buffalo bills say he's breathing on his own and he's even talking to his teammates. we have the latest on his recovery. new details about the surviving roommate's encounter with the man suspected of killing four idaho college students. how police built this case and what happens next. this case and what happens next. . ♪ good news! a new clinical study showed that centrum silver supports cognitive health in older adults. it's one more step towards taking charge of your health. so every day, you can say... ♪ youuu did it! ♪ with centrum silver.

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just in the last hour, we got some very good breaking news on the condition of buffalo bills safety damar hamlin who collapsed and suffered cardiac arrest during the nfl game sunday night. doctors have removed his breathing tube and he facetimed into a team meeting today with a special message to the players and coaches. jessie kirsch is live with more. tell us what you know, jesse. >> reporter: let's put this in the context of the timeline. this horrific incident played out monday night before a national audience. we're not even four full days after this incident and look at the progress that has been made. the breathing tube has been removed. hamlin was able to communicate yesterday according to his doctors by pen and paper. he was writing messages and he started out by asking who won the game. that's what he was thinking

about when he first woke up according to his doctors. but now he is able to speak, we're told and he explicitly was able to facetime his teammates. we're told that the message was love you, boys. his coach shared a little bit more about a lighthearted moment he was able to share with his teammates. not even four full days after this horrific incident, i think the timeline is so incredible to be thinking about. here's part of what hamlin is said to have shared with his teammates on facetime earlier today. >> the thing that makes me laugh is, he did this to the guys right away. he flexed, he flexed on them, i guess, and he's just got some things that they know him for and he does. he made the heart symbol probably more than anything and a thumbs up. >> reporter: that's an

incredible moment and an incredible flex to give your teammates. this is emotional for this community as well as this team and i asked fans what they expect in this stadium. one word that kept coming up, electric. chris, back to you. >> thank you for that great update. we have stunning new details that are shedding light on the investigation into the murders of four university of idaho students. the suspect, bryan kohberger appearing in court. police found his dna on a knife sheathe next to one of the victims' bodies. and one of the survivors told authorities she came face to face with a man dressed in black and wearing a mask the morning of the murders. >> reporter: bryan kohberger made his first appearance in front of a judge who read him his rights and those four counts

of murder. bryan kohberger's attorney is saying that he believes his client is going to be exonerated and intends to plead not guilty. meanwhile, the affidavit in this case has come out detailing some of the evidence against him and the details in that after the are chilling. >> reporter: suspect bryan kohberger making his first appearance thursday before an idaho judge. >> count two alleges that you committed the felony offense of murder in the first degree. >> reporter: the family of victim kaylee laying eyes on the suspected killer for the first time. >> did you ever see him turn back and look at you? >> no, i was hoping for that. he's going to avoid me for awhile. >> reporter: new details about the night kohberger murdered the students. perhaps the most chilling revelation, one of the two

surviving roommates telling police she came face to face with the killer. waking at around 4:00 a.m., she said she heard one of the roommates say there's someone here but didn't see anyone when she looked herself. according to a newly released court document, she heard crying from the victims' rooms and a man say something to the effect of, it's okay, i'm going to help you. she saw a man dressed in black and wearing a mask who walked towards her as she stood in frozen shock and locked herself in her room. >> these two girls were so upset that when they went outside after seeing this, the one passed out and the other one was so hyperventilating that the message wasn't clear enough for the operator. >> reporter: the 18-page charging affidavit also says a states forensic lab saw the dna on the button of a knife sheathe. it says police used phone

records and video footage of his white hyundai elantra to place the suspect near the scene of the crime. the suspect's phone had no service for two hours during the time the murders took place. data showed it traveling on a state highway back to washington where the suspect lived, authorities allege, but just over four hours later, the cell data places his phone back near the home and police say kohberger's home registered in the vicinity of the victims' home 12 times in the months before the murder, dating as far back as august of last year. kohberger expressionless as the charges against him were read. >> if you plead guilty or are found guilty is death and/or imprisonment for life. do you understand? >> yes. >> reporter: this affidavit is about 20 pages long. one of those pages has been completely redacted. we don't know what's on that page. but the family of kaylee, one of

the victims, tells us that they're confident that investigators have quiet a bit more evidence yet to present. and they are going to be continuing to build their case so they are -- they're confident in investigators right now. meanwhile, there's still some big unanswered questions, what was the motive in this case and did bryan kohberger have any connection to the victims before these murders took place? he's due back in court next thursday. back to you. >> key questions, thank you so much for that update. >> more than 900 people have been arrested in the january 6th investigation. why thousands more could still face charges. first, could today finally be the day for kevin mccarthy? the latest on those speaker negotiations and how democrats are dealing with the dysfunction.

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♪♪ hey dad, i'm almost out. i got you. any questions, chris? all good, thanks maura! there you go, one new inhaler! nice did you get my refill too? maybe [door bell] here you go, sir. you're a lifesaver. have a nice day. healthier is managing all your family's prescriptions in one app. cvs pharmacy. healthier happens together we're back now with a live look at capitol hill, less than half an hour away from day four of the battle for the speaker's chair with some fresh optimism

from republican leader kevin mccarthy, even after those 11 failed ballots. but what does all this gridlock mean for democrats and are there some opportunities for the party amid the chaos. let's talk about it with congressman colin allred, a democrat from texas. good to have you here. and i'm wondering if you can fill us in kind of on the democratic strategy. is it sit back and watch this unfold, let the republicans do what they're going to do? or is there a point, do you think, where you all try to work out some sort of compromise candidate? >> good morning, chris. we don't know what's going to happen. it doesn't look like kevin mccarthy has the votes to become speaker and even if he gets the votes, he'll be speaker in name only. the freedom caucus is really going to be running this house. and every american really should be worried about some of the concessions that he is making right now. democrats stand ready to work with republicans. we need a partner in governing as our leader has said.

we have proven over the last few years that we can get things done with a similar majority and we still are here and ready to get to work. the republicans so far have not allowed us to do that. >> i don't need to remind you, of course, today is the two-year anniversary of the january 6th attack on the capitol and i'm wondering what it means to you on this anniversary, but also that on this day, one-third of the u.s. government is currently paralyzed because of this deadlock. >> can you imagine if this crew was in charge on january 6th two years ago? we probably would not have had the certification of an american presidential election. i was on the house floor that day. i remember, you know, vividly and will never forget the events of that day and i can tell you that i'm here speaking with you because of the bravery of the capitol police and the metropolitan police. i only got to meet my youngest son cameron because of their bravery and i thank them for that and how close our democracy

came to falling. and it's a shame that we're unable to form the house of representatives because some of the same folks who were involved in that insurrection are now holding up and i think holding hostage the united states congress. >> and while we have you, the other big story i think that has captivated americans is damar hamlin. you're a former nfl player. we got amazing news today, he's breathing on his own. he's able to speak. was even able to facetime with his teammates, the democrats call his recovery remarkable. we ask if the nfl needs to take a more serious look at safety protocols, protecting its players. what are your thoughts? >> i'm happy for damar and for his family and teammates. i can't imagine the emotions they must have felt when he was facetiming with them. i know as somebody who had teammates get seriously injured, seeing them after that injury lifts you. the nfl is in a difficult

position. i think they handled it right to cancel the game. but the game is getting more violent because the players are getting bigger and faster and stronger and the field is the same size, chris. and so the hits are harder. and in this case, though, it wasn't a hard hit. it was a freak hit. and that can happen in any given play in the nfl. and so when you're watching an nfl game, understand that those players are, yes, living their dream, but they're also putting their health at risk. and maybe understand a little bit more why players are pushing for, you know, the compensation they they push for or trying to get some of the benefits that we push for through my union. because of that toll that it takes on your body and because, yes, we're living our dreams, providing a product, but we're also human beings and we're trying, you know, to have lives after football, families, all of that. >> congressman colin allred, thank you so much. we appreciate you taking the time to talk to us. on this second anniversary on january 6th, we know the

justice department's investigation has led to more than 900 arrests, nearly 500 guilty pleas, dozens of prison sentences and rare seditious conspiracy guilty verdicts and yet there are thousands who could still face charges. i want to bring in ryan reilly. take us through, ryan, where things stand two years out. >> that's right, so while the january 6th committee's work is wrapped up. the justice department's work is just getting started. >> reporter: it's a historic and sprawling investigation and federal agents aren't at the halfway mark. the fbi and justice department have already made more than 900 arrests, resulting in nearly 500 guilty pleas, 300 in just the last year and dozens of significant prison sentences. more seditious conspiracy convictions than the u.s. has seen in several decades. luckily for the fbi, they've had some much-needed help. >> most of these cases wouldn't

have been broken without the use of a sleuth, an online sleuth, right? when you do a crime like this and there's videos everywhere, people have their iphones out, we see these folks online basically piece through and put together a mosaic of what happened that day. >> since january 6th 2021, a community of online investigators say they have been combing through all the evidence they can find and then turning it over to the fbi. they call themselves sedition hunters and they've aided with several hundred arrests. >> most of them were not arrested on the spot because the capitol police were overwhelmed. so they were people who had to be found and they had to be found by sometimes our -- looking at our own video data, sometimes from citizen sleuths around the country. >> reporter: the hunters say they're doing their part, handing over information on hundreds of suspects who have not yet been arrested. and that the feds aren't working fast enough. but the doj says its investigation is moving forward at an unprecedented speed and

scale. the fbi arrested more than 700 defendants, the first year back in 2021. and then over 200 the second year, the total number of people who could face charges is likely upwards of 3,000. according to a database compiled by sleuths. the fbi says it will spend the next months and years bringing january 6th offenders to justice. >> the wheels of justice sometimes move slowly. while i understand that people may be frustrated, they have to understand that there needs to be due process. >> the second year of this investigation has really been more about getting those arrested in the initial year processed through the court system. in the second year, the justice department did rack up a number of guilty pleas and they had major trials against members of the oath keepers. through a new trial coming up for members of the proud boys. but i think the real question as they work their way through the cases is whether they're going to be replaced on the docket. to get anywhere near that 3,000 number, you get to the 2,000

number, they're going to have to speed up these arrests. 200 a year isn't going to make it in terms if you're looking at the statue of limitations and when that expires. i think that's the question about when this investigation goes forward. some of the people on that list of people who could still be arrested included ex-nfl player, ex-race car driver, a funeral home director and a neurosurgeon. there's a lot of people on this list who could be facing charges in the future. >> thank you for that update. appreciate it. will today be different for kevin mccarthy or will house members be working this weekend? we've got the latest just minutes before the beginning of day four of votes. that's next. y four of votes. that's next. a date, a day off, or a double shift. make your move and get out in front of eczema with steroid-free cibinqo. not an injection, cibinqo is a once-daily pill for adults who didn't respond to previous treatments. and it's proven to help provide clearer skin and relieve itch fast.

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♪ the peanut butter box is here. ♪ ♪ the peanut butter box is here ♪ alright, i'm out. pet prescriptions delivered to your door. chewy. we are now just minutes away from the house gaveling in day four of the bruising battle for speaker. the big question, will today look exactly like the previous three? and if yes, how much longer will kevin mccarthy's supporters wait before deciding they need to move to a plan "b." joining me now is ryan nobles, steve kornacki is at the big board, back with me is brendan buck. steve, going into what we think will be the 12th vote, remind us of the math and what you'll be watching today. >> basically these are the republicans, this is the list and this is how they voted on the 11th ballot. the republicans who have not been voting for kevin mccarthy. you can see they've been voting for other members, byron

donalds, one for donald trump yesterday or voting present. there are 21 republicans who consistently have not been voting for kevin mccarthy. the way the math is going to break down, we're told there's one republican who has been supporting mccarthy who is not going to be present today. so that means that if everybody else is there, democrat and republican, that means there would be 433 members in the chamber. 221 of them would be republicans and 212 of them would be democrats. the magic number, if 433 members all vote and they all vote for somebody, in other words, they're not voting present, they're not abstaining, that kind of thing, the magic number is 217. that's the magic number to get elected speaker. 50% plus one. that means 217, mccarthy can afford four -- four from this list -- four from this list of

21 continuing to vote for somebody else, up to four. the minute there are five who vote for somebody else, mccarthy can't hit that number, assuming all the other democrats continue to show up and continue to vote for hakeem jeffries. you take a look at this list. it's going to be really interesting about an hour from now when we expect this first vote, they vote alphabetically. some of the most dug-in republican members against mccarthy are the earliest in the alphabet. andy biggs, the first one who will be called. lauren boebert. matt gaetz. bob good from virginia. he said, you never need to ask me the question again. i'm always going to be a no against kevin mccarthy. again, we are looking for in the first vote indications from the mccarthy side, not going to get the win on this first vote, but of this 21, do they show any progress? if so, how much progress?

who can they flip to their side? can they get closer? can they start to isolate the holdouts and put pressure on one or two of the holdups eventually and say, if one or two of you just vote present or one or two of you give this up, we can finally move on to something else. i think they're trying to get there. the first ballot will tell us if they can move within striking distance or like yesterday -- we came into yesterday talking about concessions made by mccarthy. all the concessions yesterday morning won over nobody. will all of this deal making win over anybody? we will find out in the next hour. >> steve, thank you. ryan, that brings me to you. we heard the would-be speaker, we're going to shock you today. is there anything we are learning about that or conversations you had that would suggest we might be shocked at some point today? >> i will tell you this, chris. i was texting with a member who shall remain nameless on that call earlier today. i said, what should we expect?

the response was, we will have to see what happens in the next hour or so. i think there are members that are waiting to see exactly how this vote process goes. they are starting to trickle in behind me. we do know that on this call, they continued to outline aspects of the negotiaing principals they have been talking about with members of the house freedom caucus in terms of the number of people on influential committees, how the process will go in terms of getting bills to the floor and things along those lines. while there does appear to be what you could describe as incremental progress, i don't think anybody believes this is a done deal yet. we saw congressman chip roy -- he walked behind me a few minutes ago. he tweeted out about this phone call that there isn't a deal. i thought what was most kind of indicative of where we could see today go was what he said in his tweet was that there's not going to be an agreement until all 20 of us are on board. there was some thought that perhaps kevin mccarthy could peel away 15 and that might put

pressure on the final five to bring them on board. it looks like they're not going to move until everybody is on board. we will find that out for sure in the next few minutes. this is still a 50/50 proposition at best for kevin mccarthy. chris, as time goes on, it's probably going to come down to how long these members can tolerate this continual voting with the same result until something breaks. >> i know you have to get inside. thank you. brendan this is the way "the washington post" framed it and the patience and whether it's running out, the frustration among republicans. they put it this way. mccarthy's concessions could not just negatively impact them and their vision for the house, but it makes it more likely that even a speaker not named mccarthy would have to match them. talk to me about what you think the frustration level might be and how it could impact what we see today and the patience or

impatience of supporters of kevin mccarthy. what are you watching for in the next several hours? >> the conference call they had earlier today, i think, really gets to this point. you have a lot of members who have no idea what's going on. there are a lot of rumors floating around about what kevin mccarthy is giving out to people. it's not like they are talking to everybody every day. kevin mccarthy was explaining to the people backing him what he is doing, what he is putting on the table and what he is not putting on the table. there were rumors he is handing out subcommittee gavels. he tried to make it clear he is not doing that. it does sound like he is making promises about what kind of people are going to be on various committees. that makes it really difficult to understand how -- or to see how this house will function smoothly. putting these types of members, the people blocking kevin mccarthy, on some of the top committees -- we call them "a" committees, the ones that have the most power, could get in the

way of being able to legislate. these companies have enormous influence. people who get on those committees are the ones who have earned it. what you are seeing is people trying to get on there by extorting themselves to be on the committees. that's going to upset a lot of people who put in time. i'm not saying we're at the point where people will back away from kevin mccarthy because he is giving too much away. but that's why he had that conference call this morning, to make sure they are okay. going forward, big question what happens at noon. i don't know kevin mccarthy wants to be having another vote if he doesn't have a deal yet. i don't think he wants to be enduring any more losses. they are figuring out whether they can adjourn again. so far, they haven't been able to pull that off. we will keep an eye on that at noon. >> brendan buck, great to have you on the program. thank you. in a few minutes, the house will gavel in for day four of the speaker fight. andrea mitchell picks up coverage next. i will see you back here at 1:00 eastern.

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good day. i'm andrea mitchell in washington. it's january 6th. the anniversary of an insurrection that almost destroyed our democracy. today the white house and the nation commemorate the civilian and law enforcement heroes and the victims of that terrible day, even as the house chamber is no longer a literal battleground, it is now torn apart by political combat. a divide among republican factions creating a new crisis of government. on this date in 2021, lawmakers were wearing gas masks and taking cover as thousands stormed hallways fuelled by former president trump's false claims that the election was stolen. if the house had not chosen a speaker and had not sworn in its members two years ago or two years from now, the electoral college vote would not be counted. america would not have a new president. this hour, there is some move