it those three are absent, republicans have 219. democrats have 212 in the chamber. that adds up to 431. the magic number there would be 216. meaning that with those three absences in any scent vote, mccar thi now can only afford to have three defections. so while he's made significant progress here, and we'll see if he continues to make progress with the rest of the names called, keep in mind as you look at this list, to win today with who is in the chamber, he can only have three defections. you see who has continued to defect. boebert, crane, gaetz, bob good, andy harris, three with the math right now is the max he can afford. >> steve kornacki, it certainly looks as though he's shown some momentum, as he told garrett haake on the way into the floor,

but he's not going to do the deal, not on this roll call. maybe not today. chris jansing, my colleague is going to take over this roll call. watch with steve kornacki. this has been an extraordinary day already. we have another flip here. >> we knew it was going to be historic. steve kornacki, what did we just seethe? i want to go back to steve. what are we looking at? >> mary miller from illinois, another one of the holdouts, she also flipping over and voting for mccarthy. that means there have been 13 folk who is have voted against mccarthy previously and now 7 of those 13 have flipped over. so he's actually of the votes cast by previous mccarthy opponents in this roll majority over. he's gotten more than half of them. 7 of the 13 have flipped over. paul gosar will vote at the end.

he has seemed pretty dug in, but we'll see what happens there. the next name to come on the list is ralph norman. we're about 15 names away from him. very rapid fire after that. scott perry, chair of the freedom caucus, has been central to these locations. it will be interesting to see. chip roy was central to this package cut overnight or that deal that was swa worked out overnight. we'll see what happens with chip roy. does spartz start voting for mccarthy. she started voting present. but mccarthy was promising progress here. this is not a winning number for him, but there's the possibility the way this is looking that he could get out of this ballot flipping over more than half of those who had been previously

voting against him. i think that's probably a good benchmark for the mccarthy folks to take that given the circumstances as a win. let's see ralph norman coming up shortly. >> we'll come back to you. i want to go back to andrea mitchell. you have been in so many situations of high intensity on capitol hill. put this in perspective for us including this moment? >> we have another change? >> we had another situation. >> andy ogles is three away. let's go back to you. give us the number where we are right now. >> now it's 8 for 14 have flipped. they are calling out -- we are two names away from andy ogles. alexandria ocasio-cortez will be the name right before that.

>> alexandria ocasio-cortez? >> there is alexandria ocasio-cortez. >> here it is. >> ogles? omar? >> it looks like he didn't vote. >> andrea, help put this in perspective. the intensity of this has really brought a lot of americans who aren't political junkies into the math of the big board, into the intricacies of behind the closed door dealings. we haven't seen anything like this. >> to, we haven't. it's historic in every context. we're talking about more than what happened in 1923. we're going back to 1855. this is the 12th of these roll calls. we're seeing the sausage being made behind the scenes and on the floor. we saw the deal making because

we have cameras on the floor. not just the people who work for the house of representatives, which are fixed on the person speaking, but c-span has been allowed to put extra cameras on because there are to rules. so those television rules that restrict the video we get from the house and senate don't apply. so you're seeing -- scott perry just switched. so i think you're going to want to go back to steve kornacki. >> i'm going to thank you, andrea. i so appreciate your perspective and your coverage this last hour. steve, where does that bring us? >> of the 15 previous anti-mccarthy votes who voted, 9 have flipped. nine have supported mccarthy. perry is a huge one. perry is the chair of the freedom caucus. some of the things perry has been making this week made you wonder if he was dug in.

so 9 have flipped over to mccarthy. six have continued to vote against mccarthy. we have two who did not vote when their name was of called. they will return to them a at the end of this roll call. we will see what they do. rosen dale, one of the four haldouts. we'll get to rosendale pretty quickly. we're six names away. roy will come in rapid fire after. roy has been really playing a big role in negotiations over the last 24 hours. so did they win chip roy over? is the fact that so many have already voted for mccarthy an indication they won chip roy over. a lot of folks were say figure they could get chip roy, he would bring with him a bunch of votes. >> let me break in. a few seconds before rosendale, let's bring in garrett haake. give me your perspective. >> our teams reported there

could be, if the dam broke, as many as 10 to 12 flips in the course to have this vote. that does look like where we're headed. i said to watch chip roy. where he falls in the alphabet, he's a lagging indicator, but he was one of the leading negotiators with mccarthy and his allies. i do think given everything else we have seen, we should expect to see -- that was rosendale. we should probably expect to see roy go with mccarthy and his allies. and i risk being sent to msnbc jail for this, but i think i gave steve kornacki some bad math information either hern is still here today, he would be absent this weekend, so only two republican absences, which affects the math, but only the margins here. >> roy? >> i want to bring in dusty johnson. >> what did we just get in?

>> that was chip roy who just voted for kevin mccarthy. >> you're nodding, congressman. i'm guessing that's not a surprise for you. can you tell us, first of all, is hern there? what's the number of republicans who are not able to be there today? >>en kevin hern is there today. he is expected to be gone this weekend. this is going to be a fluid situation. keep in mind a narrowly divided house, week in and week out, i have been in some of these negotiations. i have talked for hours to chip roy, scott perry, michael cloud, some of these people that you see have worked to get to yes, this is not been an easy or a quick process, but slow and steady is winning this race. kevin mccarthy is going to get there, not on this ballot, but he's going to get there. >> take us inside those negotiations of the folk who is have flipped today, what was it

that helped them turn the corner? >> there was a journey of us building trust. some people think it was just a rule change. they just turned the knob on motion to vacate and the tumblers fall into place that's not the case. we have a huge diversity of views within this republican conference. a large number of freshmen, people not worked together before. so we were kind of trying to bill the airplane while flying it. that hasn't been easy. folks have told us it doesn't look good, but the reality is we're getting closer and closer to landing this plane. >> what was it about kevin mccarthy, what he has said to them or what he has done and they have observed in the past that made them feel they couldn't trust him? >> a little of this is unique to kevin mccarthy. but most of it is not. 90% of the republican conference got consolidated. if you want to wait to let us

know who that is, i understand your viewers would care. >> i want to tell you that keith self, texas, has just voted for kevin mccarthy. so that is another flip, which brings us to what number? >> that's now 11 who have flipped to mccarthy. seven continued to hold out. they will go back and do gosar and ogles who did not vote the first time around. >> when we're looking at that number, there's still a few number we're going to go back to, when you look at that kind of number, does it put pressure on the others? how do you get from where you are now to what you say is your confidence that kevin mccarthy will be the speaker? >> this is still going to be a little bit of a journey. today is a tremendous amount of success. i don't think anybody should try to down play that. it's massive. this was a pretty big sandwich.

you're not going to eat a sandwich of this size in one gulp. we'll devour half. but we'll need a few more bites around the margins and it's going to take a day day or two. >> let me ask you finally, can you tell us about promises that were made to help people get to that point? >> i think it's largely about building trust that the house is going to be run in a more open, more transparent and more accountable way. >> so not about promising committee assignments or rule changes? >> nobody has been promised to gavel. that just would simply not fly with the other 200 members. we don't elect a dictator with the speaker. he can only take us where a majority of the conference wants to go. kevin mccarthy for months has been clear that we should have all views represented on all committees. in that way, you're going to see some more members of the house freedom caucus step up and be able to serve and be leaders on

different committees, but no gavels have been promised to anybody. >> so if you were a betting man, when would you get sworn in? >> as somebody who has been involved in these negotiations, i know that progress doesn't always happen in a predictable way. i wouldn't want to speculate on a timeline. >> congressman-elect, thank you so much. we appreciate you taking the time to be with us. steve kornacki and garrett haake are still here. also with us is ali vitali, capitol hill correspondent. tim miller is writer at large for the bullwork and an analyst. simone townsend, host of "simone." steve, we'll take a breath, bring us up-to-date and give us the math. >> they are going to go through the rest of role call. we don't expect any surprises there. the folk who is have yet to vote have been voting either all for jeffries or mccarthy. no more of the defectors left. what is left is paul gosar and

andy ogles, who didn't vote on the first round. 21 republicans have not been voting for kevin mccarthy. 19 of them have now voted. 12 of them have voted for kevin mccarthy on this ballot. seven of them continued to vote against kevin mccarthy. based on what garrett said, that updated total of there only be two republicans absent today, both of them mccarthy supporters, it means that there's 220 republicans in the chamber. it means if all the democrats are there and voting for jeffries again, it means that the magic number is 217. with who is in the chamber today, 217 is the number. now based on what mccarthy has won over with these 12, he's going to finish somewhere between 211 is and 213 votes on this ballot.

it will depend on where gosar and ogles go. if both go with him, he will finish with 213. if both go against him, 211. but that's where he will be sitting with a magic number of 217. so he will be short. it they both vote for him, this could be the first ballot in 12 where he actually gets more votes than the democrat because jeffries has been getting 212. but with the mccarthy folks have been talking about, it's flipping a big number and getting very close to that magic number and being able to ratchet up the pressure one by one on the holdouts and say if just two or three or whatever of you can just come on board, we can get this done with. we can end this. if they can get a few folks. based on the current numbers in the chamber, there's 217 will be

the magic number with everybody voting. and that would mean with 220 republicans present on any future vote, mccarthy could afford three defections. so far there are seven. there could be as many as nine. we'll see when they come back around. >> how does this change the momentum for mccarthy? does it make it significantly or even anymore likely that what dusty johnson will come to pass and will get the votes? >> the sandwich metaphor has been has everyone thinking about lunch as a possible break when they count these votes. but i think this changes the equation in terms of momentum for mccarthy. what he got in this group that flipped is those who have been best able to describe their policy differences with him. the ones who had specific complaints about the way they thought he might run the house. that's scott perry and chip roy, some of the others who articulated what their complaints are. mccarthy appears to be well on

the way to if not having addressed those complaints. a lot of the folks left, you're looking at people whose motivations might be be cloudier here. matt gaetz we have discussed as personal towards kevin mccarthy. probably makes him a never. lauren boebert put herself on a limb that makes her a never. bob good has probably made himself a never. rose dale seems like a never as well. there's just other members who have other potential. you leave those folks on a branch by themselves, it's fwoik to be harder to defend their votes. >> let me go to ali vitali.

you have had had a lot of of sources inside the negotiations. how did they get here? and from your perspective, how high is the hill they have to climb, if kevin mccarthy is going to get the speaker's gavel? >> i hate to say it, but this is when the real trouble starts. like getting the 10 to 12 was the easy part, this was where my reporting has been these are the people that were the good faith negotiators. the ones who they thought they could peel off with tangible offers and negotiations. that's what they have done. whether it's on the lowest threshold for a motion to vacate the chair. whether it's the prime committee slots. these are the things they knew were the cards that were traing table. now we're in a place where a lot of these no's have to figure out what to do with them. that's where we get into phase two. so far, this has played out the way my sources told me or hoped that it would overnight. they were able to bring scott

perry, chip roy along for this and they would bring 10 to 12 votes with them. we know that's exactly what we got. but the question is how they end up dealing with the holdouts. i know that gosar's name was just called. so he's for mccarthy. that's huge. i was told at the beginning of the day that i should go look for paul gosar somewhere because they weren't sure he would be able to get to yes. it sounded at some point like he have been digging in on the never side. wrr he was on the floor, he ended up getting to mccarthy. that's huge. >> do you have insights into what might have gotten him there? >> no, but it's largely possible that the concessions that were made to the larger group that was kind of under this chip roy umbrella could have been enough for gosar. maybe all it took was a little bit of extra pushing on the floor from some of his colleague, but from some of our eagle eye friends in the chamber, before he voted, he was

talking to biggs and rosendale who are are among the people who i don't think were ever going to see get to mccarthy it's notable that's who gosar was spending time with. but another mccarthy flip from congressman-elect andy ogles. and this puts mccarthy even in better territory than they thought they were going to be going into today. they were confident about the 10 to 12 members that they had under this roy/perry umbrella. now that they are able to peel off gosar and ogles has themselves feeling good. and what we were just talking about, what do they do with the holdouts? the numbers have to change here. they can't work to magic number 218. the negotiating team is very aware that's an extremely tough number for them. >> let me go back to steve. so now we're at 14. help us to put that in context. >> two-thirds. this is it.

we have 21 republicans who had been voting against kevin mccarthy. 14 of them flipped on this ballot, exactly two-thirds. there are seven who continue to be holdouts. let's go through the list and remind you who they are. andy biggs, still a holdout. lauren boebert, eli cain of arizona, matt gaetz, bob good, "andrea mitchell reports" a"andrs and seven republicans voting against kevin mccarthy who still voted against him on this ballot. every other republican who has been voting against kevin mccarthy, and that includes byron donalds, who was nominated several times as an alternate candidate voted for mccarthy. so he picked up 14 new republican votes. i believe if there were two republican absences today, that means there were 220 voting republicans. if seven of them defektd, that

would be 213 total votes for mccarthy. which would put him over hakeem jeffries the democrat. that's a symbolic threshold. he still needs to get to the actual majority to win. that would be the first ballot that mccarthy finishes above jeffries and again if there are two republican absences, if every democrat is there, that means you have 432 voting members. there's a vacant seat here. the magic number was with 432 voting members is 217. so if he finishes with 213 here, mccarthy would go into the subsequent ballot, if you have the same come ogs in the chamber, he would be four away from the speakership. so that list goes through it, you look at the names. could he get a biggs or a boebert or a gaetz or a good? that seems unlikely had needs to

pick up 4 of the 7. is he would be the speaker. >> four becomes a very big number. i want to get your take. you just heard what ali vitali had to say. this is where it gets hr hard. garrett referenced the sand wuch analogy we heard from the congressman from south dakota. you never eat a sandwich in one gulp. it does take a nurl of bites. if things come together like it looks like it might, then this would be a major bite out of the sandwich. once you get the sandwich down to a smaller size, it gets a lot easier to figure out how to finish it. so where are we now? harder or easier if kevin mccarthy is going to be speaker of the house? >> i think we'll learn a lot more in the next ballot, but i don't share that congressman's

confidence. he said they have achieved a tremendous amount of success in your interview, which i get you have to put a positive spin. but i don't think they achieved very much success. this is an historic failure. looking at the names left, he needs to win at least two of crane, gaetz, good, biggs, boebert. those are the hardest votes to deal with. they don't have specific issues really besides dislike of kevin mccarthy. they want to burn things down. can they be pressured? i guess so. possibly. but if this is the situation wake me up if one of the never nevers flips to kevin. he still needs one of them. i think he can make rogen opt the next ballot. but how do you get down to that

core list. there were five when this process started. when you think about momentum, kevin is gaining momentum now, but there were only five never kevins at the start thousand we're at seven. he hasn't really done anything to crack that core group that is preventing him from getting the speakership. >> do you see any deals being made? did you see pressure being put to bare? is there pressure of any kind that can work on these never kevins? >> i don't know. i highly doubt it. i feel like the individuals who have dug themselves as never kevins, the extreme u.s.s in the house, these are individuals that do not care about the process, do the not care about what is currently unfolding over the last week has done for our standing in the world. how voters are feeling about this. they go to the podium to give their speeches and say this is good for our democracy.

so i'm highly doubtful. the question that i have and many other folks out there have been texting with members of congress who are saying what exactly did kevin mccarthy give away to gain these votes? i know there's live reporting out there. but we don't actually know the specifics of what was promisd. how does the rules committee shake out? will county kevin mccarthy be able to govern? and i would venture to say it's unlikely. if this is what it's like to pick the speaker, what will it be like when it comes to funding the government or the debt ceiling or funding to ukraine? can kevin mccarthy be trusted to negotiate on behalf of his caucus or will we see these extremists, these never kevins, begin to take on a more outsized

role where they are brought into negotiations at the highst levels because no wasn't can trust kevin mccarthy can get their votes. >> you have raised a lot of questions and we the to try to answer. as we stay on this huge battle for house speaker that is playing out right now, you see the pictures on the house floor. we're waiting for this round of voting to be made official ask for the next ballot to be called. but again, kevin mccarthy flipped 14 votes in this round of voting. so let's see what happens next. plus president biden set to commemorate two years since the january 6th capitol riot about an hour from now. we'll have a preview, straight ahead. but first, 18 of the house republicans against kevin mccarthy do have one thing in common. denying the 2020 election results. you're watching "chris jansing reports," only on msnbc. ching "g reports," only on msnbc. -well, i'm not 100% sold yet. -okay, have you considered -- it's fine, flo. she's not interested. i get it. not everyone wants to save money.

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this extremely high stakes almost heart stopping drama continues to unfold on the house floor as kevin mccarthy did manage to flip 14 previous no votes, but again, on the 129 ballot failed to lock down the speakership. i want to go back to steve kornacki atd the big board. there is an adjustment to be made in the numbers that is important as we look at the rest of the day. >> as our ali vitali was reminding us off the air, for the first time, you can see that scoreboard, notice that hakeem jeffries finished with 211 votes. he's been getting 212 on all previous ballots. for the first time democrats didn't have perfect attendance. the representative from maryland is not there. there's two republican ab seasons as well. what that means is that you have 431 votes that were cast in this

speaker's race. you need 50% plus 1 to become speaker that sets a magic number. with this constitution of the house, that sets a magic number of 216. 216, and kevin mccarthy's finishing here with 213 on this ballot. so we have been saying four. what he needs is three. he needs three of the seven remaining holdouts he needs to flip over and win over. if he can get them, he gets to 216. so he needs three from andy biggs, lauren boebert, eli crane, matt gaetz, bob good, andy harris, matt rosen dale. that's the list he's operating under here. >> when your look at that list, are there three more likely than

others? >> reporter: definitely a tough list. i will say as i have been standing here texting with lawmakers, who have been involved in the negotiations, of them are feeling the momentum here saying they are almost there, but it's the almost that's going to be problematic. it you can keep steve's list up, some of the names i can look at, you're not going to flip or seems unlikely to flip andy biggs, matt gaetz, bob good. because of the home state politics we were talking about earlier, matt rosendale. if had were to mount another run for senate there, it would be helpful to him politically back home if he could keep with the op-ed that he published a few weeks ago and say he didn't vote for mccarthy. >> it sounds like you named four of the six, which means he couldn't have three. >> reporter: and that's what makes this difficult. the people i'm looking at, lauren boebert f you watched him

on fox, and it's been fascinating. what hosts have been doing is saying to these members, you agree with these people on principle, on policy, on spending. why are you not letting them get on to that business? so for someone like lauren boebert, it's going to be interesting to see if she potentially bends to that kind of a public pressure here. this is not shotgun that as far as my conversations with sources around her, this is not something she's dope deeply passionate about. but nevertheless, she's obviously deeply mired in it. it's going to be interesting to see if she's someone that could flip, eli crane is a name on this list, someone we don't know a ton about. he hasn't been in congress. he hasn't been sworn in yet. he's a freshman member from arizona. the arizona delegation, and i said this when gosar flipped, i was told earlier this the day there were signs they were digging in. that's biggs. it was gosar. and it might be crane.

we have to get a bit more information about what he's looking for this had this because he comes here without the ties of these current members who already have worked together and know the changes they want to see from mccarthy. crane is one of those names that could be flipped. this is the tall order for negotiators as they try to figure out how they can get people to vote present, which brings down the threshold even more. steve is right to reflect the new information that we've got, which is that democratic congressman is out for a previously scheduled surgery, which his office says we locked at the calendar and thought we'd be in the clear to schedule a surgery for this day. nobody thought we were going to be on day four of the speakership election. nevertheless, we're all very aware that's where we are. but that explains why the number is shifting. for these negotiators on behalf of kevin mccarthy, the goal is to keep shifting that imagine you can number too. >> is there any expectation they will do anything other than move on to the next roll call?

>> reporter: it seems like they are just going to move on to the next vote and the next roll call. a motion to adjourn is always an option. we have seen that. at this point, that's probably less dramatic now than it has been at any other point because they would have the votes to adjourn, but there's a view among the team trying to negotiate here that to keep it rolling is fine. they are likely to keep doing that. but we're watching them as they go through this 12th round, tally those votes in an official capacity and see if they move on. we'll see if someone stands to nominate in the next minute or so. >> so tim miller, when you understand the kinds of very delicate and duflt conversations that are going to have to be had with maybe somebody like a lauren boebert, you have followed what's been going on on fox news. how do you see this going? do you think there's a conversation that can be had, a

an argument that could be made to flip still several more members of right now the never kevin caucus? >> they are going to be on a lot of hard feelings. can the mccarthy camp flip to make some of these people feel like they are not going to bes ostracized, banned from committees, banned from having influence if he is to win. ali said something that's an interesting option. can you convince some people to vote present. so they can still say they always opposed mccarthy and they can have that shift in the weeks and months ahead. can you get a rosendale or a harris. those are the names to look at. everything i heard from gaetz, good, eli cain is they are solid. we'll see. think getting some of them to vote present, get the threshold down, they can still have that talking point to say i never

voted for kevin mccarthy. i think that is the best way out to get some momentum and get people to vote present. then you go on to is this what the house looks like for two years? is there anything that kevin can do to get these folks in the tent when the big votes come up on controversial issues gong forward. i don't think there's a the lot of evidence of that. if you get them saying present, that signals more fights to come. >> we're in that waiting period. you can see by the shot we have been watching on the floor. first of all, for the vote to become official and then the next ballot to be gafled in. i want to point out that today really is a kind of stunning split screen. this is the second anniversary of the january 6th capitol attack when insurrectionists attempted to haul halt the peaceful transfer of aur. and left members frankly terrified for their lives protecting the ability to do

what we're seeing right now on this very same house floor. i want to bring in vaughn hillyard back with us. i noticed earlier the gallery group from january 6th that was the group last to be evacuated. they were sitting together on the house floor. i wonder if the sense is this is what was preserved two years ago. the right to democracy, however messy it may look right now. or is this going to be a body that's at least still beholden to a minority? >> it is going to be beholden to a vocal minority because of the concessions that mccarthy has made to get this job in the first place. it's probably going to be an instop signs of be careful what you wish for because if he gets this job, he has ensured that almost every of spending fight and policy battle that happens here is probably going to look as messy as this one.

the margins are always tight. when you have this looming threat of being able to have a vote prompted by any one member to oust the speaker, i was talking to someone who said they promised theyen won't misuse it. we'll see how far that promise gets when you get several months into a legislating calendar. the next two years, this is probably similar to what a status quo is going to be in congress already in a period of divided government. the fact that this is happening on january 6th, that this is the culmination of the speaker battle is an important parallel. it's one you and i talked about earlier this morning. as i have been talking with members of the gallery group, women and men who i spent a lot of time with over the course of the last year because they were at almost every single january 6th committee hearing sitting at the back of the room, bearing witness because all they wanted was to see accountability for what they went through, for what our colleagues went through on

january 6th when this buildings was ransacked. this is an important day for them. i think that officer harry dunn, who many of us have gottenen to know well, he's been so vocal about this and was present at all the january 6th committee hearings as well, what he said today is that all of these members who are locked in these negotiations and holding this speakership from kevin mccarthy are able to do that safely ear in the capitol because of the work that the capitol police continue to do today, just as they did on january 6th. i think it's a parallel that we cannot let go unspoke about. the fact that today is that day. so many of the key players then are key players now. >> we have heard fwr people who were there that day, people who are police officers who never expected to be in a situation that they were in. their colleagues in some cases lost their lives say what we're

seeing, the ability to have this meeting today, to have this vote is because of what we did. they are proud of that. they believe they fought for democracy here. and yet, you wonder, as you look forward, what can get done and we talked a lot about what's the motivation for some of these members who are holding out, when i guess, at least part of the answer is that they were brought into office to do not in spite of being election deniers, not in spite that they might do something like that, but maybe because of it. >> and there's been no political consequence. each of these house members were just elected two months ago. andy harris just won his reelection bid by 10%. he was one of those congressman at the white house with donald trump on december 21st looking for ways to overturn the election. you look at andy biggs. reelected after being publicly

on the front lines of urging state legislaures to toss out the results of their voters and send donald trump's slate of lek electors. eli crane, it was interesting to watch who he was a talking with there. he was talking with a fellow republican freshman here. and he was just elected out of wisconsin. interestingly, he was outside of the capitol building on january 6th. that is who was sitting next to eli crane. eli was talking with bannon. he said that 95% of the folks in his district overwhelmingly do not want him to support kevin mccarthy. this is a man who was a former navy seal seal who had the courage to stand with us. this is somebody who is going to take this to the end here. when you're looking at those consequences, we watch paul gosar flip, buff you have the

likes of lauren boebert that was their 1776. there's been no political consequences. if anything they are winning support among the conservatives back home. >> people who were elected with this point of view and frankly since then, and in the last week or so, been fundraising off of it. >> this is where their incentives lie. if there were incentives for eli crane to flip like the old days where they get a good committee or get a donor money from the chamber, that's a day gone past. eli's incentives on the steve bannon podcast is to be as radical as possible torks demonstrate that he fights the establish the. so it's very hard to find ab incentive to move these votes in the ways you might in the old days where you can twist some arms. that's not how the structure goes in this party. and i think that the thing to

note going forward, even if kevin can eke this out on the next couple votes today or next week, it's not just these 20. and you had marjorie taylor greene with him, there were other people elected on those platforms that will look for other opportunities for them to be the matt gaetz or the ones on steve bannon's podcast and get all the attention. so that is what creates this never-ending cycle. that's what these folks were elected on and so they are going to continue to act as such. >> so let me ask you an optimistic question. which is this. i've talked to a number of the moderate republicans in recent days, and they will click off things they want to get done. you have talked to democrats and maybe in the beginning for the first 24 hours or so, they looked at this to say this is a sign of dysfunction. they had things they want to get done as well.

could there be an opening out of frustration, out of exhaustion, whoever becomes speaker of the house, that there could be some republican/democratic bipartisanship who say, my god, our voters out there deserve something better. >> look, i think you're right to talk hopefully -- what we have heard from the democratic leader in the house hakeem jeffries over the past week is democrats stand red duh to work with republicans to get things done for the american people. they were ready to work with republicans in the last congress. and on some pieces of legislation, they did that. but on many pieces of legislation, some of the most consequential, no republicans voted with them. so the reality is that what is currently being set up in this congress, particularly in the house of representatives, is one political party that is standing up for democracy, one political party that is ready to do away

needs to be done for the american people, even if that means working with folks who literally sided with the insurrectionists on january 6th. and you have another political party that's unwilling to hold the extremism in their caucus accountable, ub willing to put their political differences aside to put the country over the political party. that's a dangerous place to be. i think we talk a lot about accountability. we have been talking about it as we look to what the department of justice is going to do. and when i talked to the chair of the january 6th committee, the chairman said accountability matters here. accountability means that people who aided and abetted in any way, shape, or form the insurrection or the insurrectionists, they have to meet some consequences. and people in congress right now who did that are not meeting consequences. and it's something that is a loud mess to the american

people. >> tim miller, thank you to you. as we look at the floor, we should look at the right of your screen. this is the first time in 12 ballots that actually the republican has more votes than the democrat for speaker of the house. but not enough to win the gavel. we'll take a quick break and be back and see if we get a final certification of this 12th ballot when we come right back. k i'd like to thank our sponsor liberty mutual. they customize your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. contestants ready? go! only pay for what you need. jingle: liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. next on behind the series... that performance was legendary. they just piled it on. roast beef, ham, oven roasted turkey. all on the subway club. three peat - that's great. three meat - that's epic. the subway series. the greatest menu of all time. (cecily) what's up, einstein?

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them, rosendale, stefanik, eli crane, gaetz walked over to them and said something and stefanik appeared gaetz not to be joining in the conversation, so he walked away. tell us, as somebody who knows a lot of these players here, what you imagine these conversations are, and how do you see this playing out today? >> yeah, things just got very lonely for these last few holdouts. so i have been very careful not to predict about what i think is going to happen. but there is incredible optimism right now from republicans that kevin mccarthy is going to pull this off. that he is right now within striking distance. and obviously, matt gaetz is trying to screw things up as much as he can. he doesn't want there to be a deal. but i'm looking that the list of people who are left, and there definitely seems to be a path, and it wouldn't surprise me if it comes relatively quickly. it was enormous to have that big of a flip and the particular people that flipped. scott perry, the chairman of the freedom caucus. ralph norman, one of those

people who was the original five that came out and said they wouldn't vote for kevin mccarthy under any circumstances. chip roy who was leading the push, most recently. this is a huge moment for them. there are big problems to come after this, if kevin mccarthy does get there. some of the promises that have been made, as we talk a lot about and we're hearing more about what could be in this deal, that it disturbs me frankly quite a bit how that will play out in practice but kevin mccarthy is very much within striking distance right now. >> the other piece of intel we had was democrats were told to return for a possible adjournment. then we saw james comer working on a speech to nominate mccarthy next. he's got payers by the republican microphone and is making changes with a pen. so do you think strategically that's the right thing to do? >> absolutely. you got to ride your momentum and see if any of these people want to tap out quickly. maybe it caught some of them by surprise. i think it was a big surprise to a lot of people that this many

people flipped. now, we may have the same vote at last time, on the next coming one, but at least you then understand how firm some of these people are. but there is a lot of momentum, there's a lot, there will be a lot of desire from a lot of members to end this right now. i think a lot of people will be thinking the same thing right now. kevin mccarthy can get there. and if they're putting that much pressure on them, they can turn to them and say this is an inevitability at this point. how much longer do you want to drag this out and be here over the weekend? those are real conversations that they may be having and it might be the kind of peer pressure that could turn it for them. >> what is your thought? >> what i'm hearing from lawmakers right now is i think what brendan just said is on the money. so right now, members are expecting that there will be another vote for a speaker, and depending on what happens with that vote, there's a question of what comes next, does mccarthy i want to reinforce my support, if he does not win the next vote, and then try to put it on the

floor again, or do members move to vote to adjourn, and so right now, we should expect that members of congress are going to again go into another round of voting for speaker. >> 30 seconds, what should be the messaging on the democratic side if it does happen that kevin mccarthy is elected speaker? >> the democrats stand ready to get to work for the american people and it is very clear that there is one leader in congress that knows how to keep their caucus together and there is another leader in congress that cannot be trusted with negotiations. >> there it is. that is jumping ahead. we still have another vote coming up. thank you both very much. we appreciate you being with us. that's going to do it for me this hour. any moment now, president biden is scheduled to speak at an event commemorating two years since the january 6th attack on the capitol. former capitol police chief steven sund in charge during the riot will join us, all that

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good to be with you. i'm katy tur. let's go right back to capitol hill, where the 13th vote is now starting. james comer of kentucky is now nominating kevin mccarthy once again. >> what really happened in that lab in wuhan, china. those of us who have kids in the public school system could testify that our kids have lost a year of their education because of the forced virtual learning that so many of our schools put our children through during the covid pandemic. congress ran the debt up at least $3 trillion in the