so as you can see i am not ali velshi. i promise you, we will go to allie velshi in just a second. i did want to say thank you again for watching the katie phang show. i also want to say thank you to my crew here on the set in miami, florida. my team in new york city. they are doing amazing work! we've got a lot of stuff done this morning. i will see you next week and right here on msnbc. as i promised, velshi is next. >> good morning.

it is sunday, february the 5th. i am ali velshi. we begin today with a big balloon! a major metaphor and a geopolitical turning point in the wrong direction. yesterday, at 2:39 pm eastern standard time the united states military f 32 aircraft flying at 15,000 feet used a single air to air missile to shoot down what the united states says was a chinese around balloon. roughly six nautical miles off the coast of south carolina, while within u.s. territorial airspace. the blue crafted to the atlantic ocean creating a debris field at least seven mile spread out in monthly shallow water. the recovery is ongoing. that includes navy divers, the coast guard, another manned and unmanned savage vehicles. fbi counter intelligence agency are also on board the vehicles. officials say there is plenty to learn from the debris. they add they have also been studying the balloon since it first entered u.s. airspace in the lucian islands of alaska on january the 28. the balloons, which had maneuverability capabilities

because of small motors and multiple propellers, entered canadian airspace on january 30th. traveling south, through canada, traveling into the continental united states over northern idaho on january 31st, last tuesday. president biden said he gave the order to shoot down the balloon on wednesday. on the advice of his team decided against doing so while the balloon was above land. citing the risk of harming people in infrastructure on the ground. the order taking effect once the balloon was over water. of course, u.s. officials were spying on this bible in the entire time. the pentagon adds that the balloon had-limited value in collecting intelligence that would provide anything that shiny surveillance satellites can also obtain. both the u.s. and china are known to have several satellites railing each other. conducting surveillance by balloon is not new. while it is still done it is a relatively unsophisticated and out way of doing espionage. may and surveillance balloons being used in the american

civil war before coming in the fashion in world war i. look at the names of the planes that were used in the mission that down the balloon. frank 01 and frank co2. named after frank luka junior who was a war were to hero known for destroying more than a dozen german observation looped balloons. it is poetic. china has admitted that the balloon is there but says it was, quote, a civilian airship used for meteorology purposes. a weather balloon. which had, quote, deviated far from its plane course from strong winds. which was a little hard to believe where montana where the balloon was covering for a day is more than 6000 miles from mainland china. also home to one of america's three nuclear missile silo feels. which operates maintained intercontinental ballistic michelin. indeed, a senior official says the blood was monitoring multiple sensitive military sites. carrying surveillance equipments including a collection pardon had special thermal panels. more damning, the u.s. has concerned that another chinese

surveillance balloon is right now traveling across central and south america. both of these balloons are part of a tiny surveillance balloon flee which has been spotted over the past several years in multiple countries across five continents. this latest incident, however, is much more than just a spy balloon. it is a metaphor for u.s. china relations, which are far off course instead to get further adrift. at this very moment the u.s. secretary of state, anthony blinken, was scheduled to be in beijing for meetings with his chinese counterpart and also, potentially, with the chinese leader xi jinping himself. the big balloon grounded blinken's big beijing trip. which would've been the first time a biden secretary visited china, a first u.s. secretary of state to visit china since mike pompeo was there in 2018. this was meant to, potentially, be the start of resetting relations, or at least a chance to calm things down following the tim multiple times of the trump era. during which washington instituted a trade war with beijing. with the president vacillating

between nuclear annihilation with china's north allied north korea. publicly fawning over the notorious north korean strengths and the two falling in love over the two love letters to send one another. these are trump's own words. encroachment, provocation, and ambition in the south china sea towards taiwan, which believes is a province of china. the u.s. has reached a new agreement with a philippines to expand americas access to military bases in the philippines. which are the movement to counter china's growing regional influence. blinken's beijing trump could have been a turning point in this relationship. instead it appears we are heading further in the wrong direction. joining me now is nbc news senior white house correspondent, kelly o'donnell. kelly, great to see you. thank you for being with. us this bible and has created quite the diplomatic incident. it has also created quite the hullabaloo in washington. what have you made of it since we first heard of the -- 2:00 in the afternoon?

>> good to be with you, ali. this is a situation where you see how unexpected events can change the dynamics and change them quickly. to medically, diplomatically, and on the international scene. for president biden, part of what he was trying to project in speaking with reporters, briefly, was really speaking to messages. one for a domestic political audience, which includes the republican critics who had been urging him to take action more quickly. certainly a message to china and the international community that might be measuring, or testing, his response. or, how the u.s. would deal with something like this. the president was trying to send a message that he and made the decision early in the week that once u.s. sovereignty had been interrupted by this balloon -- of course, let's state the obvious. the u.s. buys on china, china spies on the u.s.. some of this is baked into the system. this is a more obvious

encroachment, and one that caused concern. as you pointed out, the u.s. you some of the time to try to spy on the spy. to try to seek information from this surveillance balloon to find out what it was doing. to try to learn more about its path, its equipment. that will certainly be part of what happens in the recovery process that is now going on off the coast of south carolina. as they are able if you gather any of the equipment provided by the downing of this balloon, they hope to be able to learn more from the wreckage, if you will. before president biden saying he made the decision early, through the collaboration with the pentagon, their evaluation was that, as it was passing over the density of you and communities there was a real risk for debris. this is, again, the size of three school buses. imagine that coming down at a rate of speed. that could do damage to

structures. could certainly harm individuals. waiting until it was out of the water but still within u.s. control. that is why the president referred to a 12 mile zone off the coast of the u.s.. that is still u.s. territorial waters, not in the international area. that was a clear zone. also allowing them a chance to as we saw, control the airspace where they used to the three airports. shut down three billion travel for a while. just to try to have greater control over the area when the two f-22 fighter jets involved that took this balloon out. the message to china, of course, is we saw you. we got you. don't do it again. it comes at a time when, as you pointed out, antony blinken was supposed to be trying to ease some of the difficult relationship. a very tense relationship with china that has always been complicated, and difficult. i was part of the trip where

the president met with xi jinping in-person. that was a tense meeting. there continues to be concerns about, especially in the wake of the ukraine war, how china might view taiwan. that remains an open consideration for the u.s., china. president biden has been vocal that the u.s. would back taiwan, militarily. there are so many levels to this balloon episode that play out domestically, and internationally. ali? >> thank you so much for not just your great reporting but, as always, your analysis. great to see my friend. nbc news kelly o'donnell of the white house. joining us now is bobby goes, editor and a plane with -- thank you for being with us, bobby. kelly made the point, american spies on china. china's buys on america. everyone spies on everybody! you can't see this not a lights, but they are up there all the time. we could see this balloon. 60,000 feet, just above american controlled airspace. technically not breaking the

law. anyone can fly about 60,000 feet. they can do whatever they want. was this a mid step by china? was it meant to be provocative? where we meant to see this balloon? >> that is a very, very, good question. you have to think that there is a strong possibility of that being the case. you cannot set off a balloon that goes all the way across the united states and imagine that it will not be spotted given the amount of surveillance that any country does to its own airspace. that balloon is bound to be seen, suitor or later. if it was deliberate, then the question was, why and why now? the y part is fairly obvious. you want to collect as much intelligence impossible. yes you collect intelligence in different ways. a balloon is not the most sophisticated way out there but you can do various things with a balloon. you can hover, as you said at the top of the hour they were sometimes that the balloon is capable of lingering. satellites cannot do that. you get a more grain you visual

injury from lower attitude than at satellite. a balloon can also behave like a trial balloon. it can test american radar, they can test our singling ability. it can test how quickly we can spot an intruder, like a balloon. that is not on important formation for a country like china. there are lots of things for the why of it. the wind now part of it is really quite mystifying. there have been some signs, over several weeks, that we put behind us the difficulty they came up last summer when speaker pelosi went to taiwan and relations with china hit a new bottom after that. there was signs that things are going better. antony blinken was about to go to beijing. why do this now? what is the message that they are sending by doing this now? there are chinese political

considerations. xi jinping has looked quite weak recently because of his mishandling of the covid crisis. the economic ramifications of that -- he needs to show some strength. poking the united states in the eye is a tried and tested way for americas enemies, and for china, to show a little strength. to feel a little better about their own position. look, we sent a balloon all the way across the united states. they didn't see it coming for days and days and days. ultimately, they were not able to do anything about it until the balloon was still in american airspace but it across the entire country into the atlantic. there is some political messaging from that, that might benefit xi jinping. we are speculating. we don't know a lot more on what that balloon was doing when the payload will be covered -- hopefully will happen very

soon. >> that's another question i had. the chinese maintain it was a civilian whether gathering believe. i would imagine when you fly a balloon over another country that the chance is going to get covered. whatever the u.s. or anyone else loses military criminal another country they try to destroy it somewhat someone cannot figure out what was on that vehicle. here is the thing, the coast guard is off the coast of south carolina, they are pulling it in. in theory, if it was gathering information, americans will be able to tell that it was. the chinese have already said, what it is. is that faux pas number two right now? is that going to matter or at some point do we just know it's by a balloon? the fact that they say that it is it is immaterial? >> well, the self destruct button that we see in spy movies doesn't always work out and realize. this is quite sensitive and sophisticated equipment. you don't want to damage it yourself until we are absolutely sure, even if you have the ability to do so, from such a great distance. listen, if it was a weather

balloon they would've had days and days of opportunity to inform the united states once it began to go off track. listen, here is a balloon. we are terribly sorry it is coming over airspace. it's a balloon a weather balloon a climate saying. an environmental thing. they didn't tell us until we thought ourselves! that is a very bad sign. they didn't inform the united states until they were challenged with evidence that the balloon was there. even if the balloon has been remotely tampered with -- that there was some kind of self destruct. the kind of equipment that was on the balloon would tell us a great deal about what it was looking for. there is the possibility of reverse engineering some of that technology and learning, at least, the intent of it. if we don't have the ability to, let's say, collect the data that was on that balloon. maybe the data was wiped in

some way or maybe the data was always communicated back and not saved on the pot itself. okay. we can tell what it was looking for. by simply looking at the equipment and reverse engineering it. >> bobby, thank you so much for your time this morning, we appreciate your analysis, always. >> bobby gauche is the editor and columnist for bloomberg opinion. coming up, we are going to break down the geopolitical and national security implications of this incident, with the former director of the cia, john brennan. we will look at how using a big old balloon to conduct surveillance is an odd choice in 2023. plus, we will turn our attention to it's china's ally russia, and its disastrous invasion of ukraine, and how vladimir putin should learn lessons from another disastrous invasion from russia's past. but, next, we will stay here at home in the history of the black national anthem. i will speak to dr. imani perry, who literally wrote the book on it, about how and why a 100-year-old song has as much meeting today as it ever did.

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♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> some of you may not know it, but one of that songs is one of the most pivotal pieces of music composed in america and the last hundred years. the virginia just heard was the gossipers singer, kyra sheerest, contemporary rendition of lift every voice and sing. the song has been seminal among black americans for over a century. lift every voice and sing was originally written as a voice and poem by the literary pioneer and then aa cp leader, james weldon johnson. his younger brother, joes rodman to johnson, composed the music to accompany the lyrics. johnson initially set out to honor the birthday of president

abraham lincoln, which is on february the 12th. but given black americans ongoing quest for civil rights in the post reconstruction era, johnson instead chose to write about the black struggle, and their fight for liberty and equality. after the first public performance of the song, at his school where johnson worked in jacksonville, florida, the song exploded. it was promoted by black leaders in organizations. it was passed along for years and some an african american communities across the country. by 1919 it was adopted by the naacp as the organization's official song, dubbed, the negro national anthem. this was about a decade before the star-spangled banner became the official song of the united states. during the civil rights movement of the 19 50s and 60s, the song was prominently used as a rallying cry among black americans, in fact, some of the songs versus were often referenced by dr. martin luther king junior in his speeches. but lift every voice wasn't always a song a protest. one community, one commonly

used at school events and graduations and church and civic associations. in the 1970s, it came to be known as a symbol of resistance taken up by a new generation of prominent black activists and artists and politicians. fast forward the modern-day, where words from the black national anthem have been used in some of the most high-profile ceremonies in the country. the civil rights icon, reverend joseph lowry quoted several verses of it while giving the benediction at president barack obama's first inaugural address in 2009. >> shatter beneath our hand, may we forever stand. some truth to the oh god and true to our native land. >> in 2016, the song was added to the national recording registry in the library of congress, which is an honor only given to pieces of media that are considered to have made significant cultural and historical impact on american life. lift every voice and sing has found new relevance in the last

decade as the black lives matter movement has picked up momentum amid the rash of brutality against black men and women at the hands of police. it is some as demonstrations as an act of defiance, some have even made the case that lift every voice shouldn't just everybody the black national anthem, but official anthem for all americans. its message is universal and one behind which everyone can rally. sing a song full of the faith that the dark past has taught us, sing a song full of the hope that the present has brought us. facing the rising sun of our new day begun yet. let us march on till victory is one. the songs impact and influence on black culture has been a measurable, it is a signifier black identity, and perhaps, more broadly, of american identity. and it holds just as much meeting today as it did 100 years ago when it was written. over the counter eye drops can provide temporary relief. xiidra... can provide lasting relief.

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the history of the song, lift every voice and sing, often furch with the black national anthem. for more on how the song shaped black culture and life in the past century, i am joined now by dr. imani perry, i she is a professor of african american studies at -- university, the winner of the 2022 national book award, for the book and south to america, and the author of the book may we forever there stand, a history of the black national anthem. doctor perry, good morning to you, thank you for being with us, it is great to see you again. >> good morning, thanks for having me. >> i think it is fair to say that there are people watching us this morning who may have heard of the song but do not understand the depth of significance that it has, both in the black community and really for the larger community. you've written entire book on. it we are going to try and summarize some of it, but i wouldn't mind asking you to do that, to say what is it about the song that our viewers may not know? >> it was a song that, historically was some agony ritual fashion in some

instances in schools every day, often at least every week. it was a part of the history that was negro history, and is now black history month. and it is an extraordinary composition. it is a history lesson, it is an ethical lesson, it is a form of guidance to ensure that people feel a sense of common purpose. and you have to remember, these are people who were told that they had made no meaningful contribution to human history. and then, every week, they are singing this song together that actually talks about the epic terms of their struggle for freedom, and extraordinary journey they've taken. so it has this resilience that is becoming unprecedented over 100 years later, it is still being some. >> tell me about the effect of the song. it is used in celebrations, it is used in protests, it is used to mark struggle, what is it representing to you? all of the above? >> all of the above.

the emotional effect of standing shoulder to shoulder with people but, you are supposed to stand when you sing the song, and reaffirmed commitments to liberation is really quite extraordinary. it is a beautiful composition, which is part of the reason it is so powerful, but it also has just a profound message. >> i want to read a passage from your book where you described your family's first thanksgiving following the loss of your grandmother, you're right, spontaneously, i asked my son to share the song he had been learning in school. he stood and began to sing. before he finished the first line, everyone in my mother's generation stood up with him and raised their right arms with solid black power fists. his eyes widened like saucers, and mine filled with tears. i wondered how my grandmother who was born in 1917 would've responded that in that moment. each generation, each individual, knows this song in a distinctive manner. i was curious to know what else you thought about that. how do you think your

grandmother would've responded to that? >> i think she would have been moved, she wasn't of the generation of the black power generation, so she wouldn't have responded in that way, but i think he would have been deeply moved at a program from a younger son, two days ago, the children sang the song again. and for them, it means something distinct as well. each generation finds its own meaning in the song, and it has this ability to resonate with people across political spectrum. across ideological distinctions, because it is so powerful. >> let's talk about that. it appeals to people across the political spectrum, across the ideological spectrum, which is important in the black community because, as much as we talk about black people and what they may think, there is no such thing, because it is so broad. what about the non black community? is there relevance for this song for all americans? >> absolutely. i think that it is incredibly important for all of us to keep

in mind how people who have been historically marginalized or subjected to inequality actually find ways to develop a sense about the significance of their history, their culture, and actually sustain the ability to struggle against inequality. so the song becomes an example of the profound-ness of human struggle, and also reminding that we need to look beyond the official story of any nation, and consider that all of the people who have contributed meaningfully to society. so i think it has the capacity to resonate with everyone, and certainly some powerful examples of that that i try to share with in the book as well. >> what do you make of the argument that some people have that this might have more relevant today to being our nation's national anthem? >> i'm not sure that we actually have reached a point where we can say that we have achieved the kind of a quality that would make it appropriate for it to be the national

anthem, we still need the song to actually function as a kind of signifier of what has not yet been achieved in this country. when dr. king quote, holman lift every moment and sing, it was often the most difficult moments in the civil rights struggle. after the most harrowing defeats or even deaths. and i think that that is instructive. it is a song that reminds us that we have not yet achieved the kind of justice that we also rightly deserve. >> what is the relevance of the fact that the song is gaining greater mainstream prominence, including the fact that it will be performed at the super bowl? >> i think it's a sign that we have had this sort of in the last ten years are, so what is called a racial recognition, and part of that journey has been to actually tell the story about black americans who have been wounded deeply so that people can understand why it has been so critical to

actually continue to struggle for racial justice, and why black americans have actually been able to sustain themselves in the face of racial injustice. the so, hopefully the introductions of rituals of black life will begin to push that struggle forward a bit further. >> you have been a featured writer on the velshi book club, we want the official velshi banned book club, with hannah-jones. we had her back on after a xia year, in a while i will be talking to kimberly crenshaw, both of them are subject to the opposite. you are talking about the song becoming more understood by most americans, but there are things specifically about black history that people are pushing back on in this very moment, whether it is florida and the ap black history course, or the continued efforts to ban books across this country. how do you evaluate where we are? i >> i think we are always

locked in the struggle. in the struggle >> i think there is the old saying, one step forward two steps back, and that is actually what the song speaks to. in the second verse, which actually tells the story of adversity, the servers tells the story of when we actually make gains, we shouldn't be too comfortable in believing that this is the end of the journey. the song itself reminds people that this is an ongoing struggle, and so it makes sense that, that we are listening to the song at a moment at which we are actually, in some ways, in a very fraught period of time when it comes to black people, black history, and black culture. so, maybe, it can actually inspire us to push back against these efforts to continually marginalize black live. >> dr. perry, great to see you again, thank you for being with. us dr. amani perry is a professor of african american studies at princeton

university. she is the author of may we forever, stand the history of the black national anthem. >> coming up, we are leading you a story about how the ap black history class is facing challenges, you are watching velshi. velshi. hit, we had some challenges like a lot of businesses did. i heard about the payroll tax refund, it allowed us to keep the amount of people that we needed and the people that have been here taking care of us. see if your business may qualify. go to getrefunds.com. when you really need to sleep. you reach for the really good stuff. business may qualify. zzzquil ultra helps you sleep better and longer when you need it most. its non-habit forming and powered by the makers of nyquil.

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or commuting the sentences of tens of thousands of prisoners. that includes many people who were arrested in connection with the recent anti government protests in the country, after the death of 22-year-old, mahsa amini, which the announcement cited was, quote, of the result of the incitement propaganda of the enemy. amini died in a hospital under suspicious circumstances last september after she was arrested for allegedly violating the country's strictly enforced islamic dress code for women. while law enforcement said she suffered a heart attack, witnesses said that amini had been beaten by the police. her death triggered large-scale protests across iran and caught the attention of the international community, as iranian officials tried to downplay amini's death and violently crackdown on protesters. four men were publicly hanged for taking part in the protests, and last november, iran acknowledge knowledge that around 300 people have been in connection with the protests. human rights groups, however, said that the number of casualties is higher than that. an estimated 20,000 protesters have been arrested. up next, the war in ukraine, i

will talk to americas former ambassador to russia, a look back at another infamous invasion from russia's past, to see if there are lessons to be learned for russia's current conflict, how it may play out, and what is needed to ensure a lasting and peaceful and. before we go to break, i want to make sure that you are aware of a few important programming note, starting saturday, february the 18th. velshi is going to be a new later timeslot, saturdays in sundays, from 10 am to noon eastern. again, we are going to be starting at ten a.m. instead of eta. that same weekend, by the way, and the following weekend, i will be live on the ground in ukraine as we prepare to mark a full year since the russian invasion began. plus, don't forget, if you miss anything from any of our shows, velshi is always available as a podcast. you can catch up anytime. subscribe and listen for free, anywhere you get your podcasts. and, of course, you can always find me on social media, including some of the newer social platforms post news.

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russia's foreign ukraine, a plan that he thought would take three days to capture the country. the on americas -- vladimir putin and his continued support to drum up at home for which is going very badly for his side is now invoking the famous and important soviet defense of stalingrad against not see invaders in world war ii. warping both logic and reality to say that russia's current war of conquest in ukraine is somehow a continuation of the soviet defense of stalingrad. putin degrade that 80 years later, russians are still fighting german tanks, despite the fact that this time around, those german tanks will be used by the ukrainians in defense of freedom, in the face of an inhumane invasion. there is, however, a better comparison to the war in ukraine involving putin's idol, joseph stalin, and his beloved soviets. one that does not need to twist

history, one that putin perhaps purposely forgets, and that is the soviet invasion of finland in 1939, and what is known as the winter war. in late 1939, two and a half months after the not season the soviets side of the molotov ribbon trough packed, also known as the not see soviet nonaggression pact, and also after not sees germany invaded poland from the west, and soviet russia invaded pulling from the, east a confident joseph stalin ordered the invasion of finland, which was part of the russian empire from the early 18 hundreds when russia captured it from sweden, until fund gained independence following the 1917 russian revolution, in the aftermath of world war i. you could start to see a connection between stolen's view of finland then, and putin's view of ukraine now, which gained independence following the fall of the soviet union. and, much like putin in ukraine, despite a supposed superior force and overwhelming numbers of troops and equipment, the finish defense was ferocious. and the soviets were unable to

capture the country or make any significant headway, while suffering a tremendous loss of men, equipment, and military reputation. after three months of fighting and several hundred thousand dead, finland and the soviet union signed the moscow peace treaty. the finland -- the soviets a planned to accept finland as a sovereign nation, and finland seated a smaller out of its territory to the soviet union. importantly, the soviet blunder in finland, gave hitler the confidence that he could successfully invade the soviet union. a campaign he began when he broke the molotov ribbon trapped part and couldn't menaced operation barbarosa, the nichelle operation of the invasion of the soviet union, what russia views as the start of what they call the great patriotic war. three days later, the soviets, under stolen, broke the moscow peace treaty, and invaded finland. again. stolen, then like putin today in ukraine, was determined to recapture what he falsely viewed as his. fighting didn't end until 1944,

and finland's borders and sovereignty were only officially protected in 1947, by the paris peace treaty. the historic, multinational accord following world war ii. so it is something similar needed to ensure ukraine's sovereignty. to ensure another russian leader with dreams of empire doesn't invade once again. after the break, we will talk with the former united states ambassador to russia, and a professor of international studies in political science at stanford university, michael mcfaul, about what history lessons teach us about the next stage of russia's war in ukraine, and what will be needed to ensure a lasting peace. right? uhh...nope. intuit quickbooks helps you manage your payroll taxes, cheers! with 100% accurate tax calculations guaranteed. why do dermatologists choose dove? the dove beauty bar, is gentle. it not only cleans, it hydrates my skin. as a dermatologist, i want what's best for our skin.

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mcfaul, the former united states ambassador to russia. he is an msnbc international affairs analyst and professor of international studies and political science at stanford university, and the author multiple important books about russia, including from cold war to hot piece, an american ambassador in putin's russia. we should also note that during his time as america's ambassador to russia, in march 2011, mcfaul attended a major meeting between then vice president joe biden and russian president, vladimir putin. tom thank you for being with us on this early morning for you on the west coast, we appreciate it. >> thanks for having me, and thanks for all of that incredible history that you just presented. >> i knew i was talking to you, and you are a student of history, you do follow these things. and, really, history as it relates to that part of a world

has been very relevant lately because of vladimir zelenskyy invoked a few pieces of history in his speech to congress, and vladimir putin does it a lot, except vladimir's twisting history here. there is something about that winter war in finland that is relevant, and that is that this ukrainians are coming up to a year of this fight. they have not folded. they are cold, the russians are taking out energy infrastructure, and yet, this war goes on. >> i agree with you. there are parallels. and i think it is important for everybody to remember that just counting up the number of tanks and soldiers and gdp per capita spent on military is a proxy for power that is not the only thing that matters in power, right? the finns were outmanned, as you just talked about, and they spot to a standstill. they did have to give up some territory, as you said, but they fought to a standstill because they were fighting to defend their territory. the soviet soldiers were invading, and i think that is the most important part of the analogy, right? when you are invading and you

don't know what you are doing their, you don't find the same way when you are trying to defend your country. that is the difference. by the way, that is also the part that is the same with the battle of stalingrad that you also talked about. >> that's right. >> then, soviets were being invaded, and when i say soviet soldiers i say russians and ukrainians, because they all fought there in the battle of stalingrad. that was why they ultimately defeated the not sees there, but fighting in ukraine today, the russian soldiers really don't have the will to fight. >> so let's talk about what's happening with the russian people. it is very hard to tell, there is some polling that comes out of russia, but given the talking about the war's illegal, you can't believe at the polling is accurate. it shows overwhelming support for both the war and for vladimir putin. we do know that he is actually pretty popular at home, at least that is what we think. how do we get a sense after the russians have suffered from sanctions and businesses closing and scorn of the world, and now are seeing not just their sons and daughters go

fight, but their prisoners go fight, what is happening in russia. have you any sense of what the mood is inside of russia? i'm >> like you said, it is hard to know, because doing an opinion poll and a dictatorships is always fraught with problems. opinion polls in russia have a very high non respondent rates, sometimes 80%, so when you see them listed in our newspaper's saying 70% support putin, remember that most people said, no thanks. i don't want to talk to you and your polling because, a, as you said, using the word war can get you in jail. and, b, imagine what it is like in dictatorships in russia today when a stranger from moscow calls you up and says, hey, natasha, what are you thinking of vladimir putin? you are sitting out in -- the only answer is to just keep your head down and say i support the war. my assessment, looking at multiple kinds of sources, is that, yes, most people support

putin. and because putin supports the war, they support it. but if he said tomorrow, i am signing a peace agreement, over 70%, by one poll, they would support that right away. that is to say that it is important, because he is a leader in war, but they really don't support the war. secondly, there is a minority, but it is a serious minority that just in support the war. and would you look of it proxies you see massive new leadership and viewership for opposition and independent media operating outside of russia. well, hey do -- exactly. so if they're everybody supports the war, why are they watching these folks. and, related to that, if you remember alex eaton volley, he was arrested, they tried to kill him first, and then they went back. he is arrested and sitting in jail. he is opposed to the war. all of his youtube websites that are supported by his supporters outside, they all have now massive following is

that they didn't have's before. that suggests that there is a lot more indifference to the war, and opposition to the war than those hope fully letting us to believe. >> we are not sure what happened. a couple weeks ago we saw a mark-able uptake for western nations and nato nations in terms of material and ammunition. we are expecting some sort of russian offensive in the coming a days or weeks, where we hear they maybe up to half 1 million new troops flown into this battle. we are also thinking about how this ends, and you wrote in foreign affairs magazine at the end of january, you said in an article said how to get a breakthrough in ukraine the case against incremental-ism, the next several months could be a critical turning point in russia's invasion of ukraine. that is why the u.s., nato, in the free world need to do more. more, and better weapons, more and better sanctions, more diplomacy, now to help ukraine with what their way. does the stuff that happened the last couple of weeks, because you've written that in the middle of it, and some of it was already happening, so

you knew that, is that enough more are you talking about more, more. re are you tal>> i am talking a, more. so i think what president biden has done, what nato has, done with the free world has, done up to this point has been fantastic. they should get a lot of credit, none of this was inevitable, and if there were a different president place, i don't think it would've happened. so i applaud what they have done so far. but, tragically, the war is not over. putin thinks that time is on his side, that we are going to stop talking about the war, people are going to say, you know, we've got problems at home and not just in our country, but throughout europe. so he thinks time is on his side. and that is why i think we have done a lot but we need to do more, because i do think the next 6 to 9 months could be a turning point. and so they need more long-range missile systems they, need more tanks, they need more of everything we have provided, and some additional weapons to try to give them the capabilities to achieve not

just stalemate on the battlefield, but breakthrough. >> thank you for joining us this morning, that was appreciated, michael mcfaul is always the former u.s. russian ambassador, he is the author of from cold war to hot piece. and on january 30th, he published a piece of foreign affairs magazine, which gives this run forward and ukraine. up ahead, the latest on the downed chinese spy balloon. another hour of velshi, begins, right now. >> good, morning a geopolitical turning point the wrong direction. yesterday, at 2:39 eastern standard time, united states military f-22 aircraft flying 58,000 feet used a single air to air m