>> he played a major role in president biden's economic policy and his role in democratic economic circles goes all the way back to the obama administration where he was a key architect responding to the financial crisis. he was instrumental in getting joe manchin to sign onto the final piece of the build back better act and so lael brainard came from a think tank. she's got her work cut out for her for focusing on the biden's hill of relationships. >> thank you so much for joining us again this morning. >> thank you. >> and thanks to all of you for getting up way too early with us on this wednesday morning. "morning joe" starts right now. i want to take a moment to say our hearts are with the students and the families of michigan state university. it's the family's worst nightmare. it's happening far too often in this country.

far two often -- far too often. we have to do something to stop gun violence ripping apart our communities. ripping apart. [ applause ] >> good morning and welcome to "morning joe." that's president biden joe biden delivering a speech. another deadly shooting. we're going to have more on the victims and the expected gunman just ahead. and the white house talks about three unidentified objects that were shot down over the last week with a new explanation of what they could be. and we're going to have new reporting from the justice department that could overcome claims of attorney-client privilege from one of donald trump's lawyers ominous news for mr. trump. mike pence continues to stonewall any efforts to get him to testify about january 6th.

good morning. welcome to "morning joe." i was thinking we could talk about the "new york times" story -- do we have "the times" here? "new york times" on italy's prime minister surprising europe or -- >> i'm going to take -- you know where i'm headed. we have pitchers and catchers reporting today for your boston red sox. new season. they signed a couple of new hot dog vendors in the off-season which is very exciting. they can sling them as they move up and down those aisles at fenway. it's a new day. hope springs eternal in mid-february for every major league team. it dies quickly. but there's hope today. >> today is probably the best day of the red sox season and it's all downhill from here. an underwhelming off season for the team. but what matters is baseball is back. you have pitchers and catchers

reporting. we have the world baseball classic this year. that's always a fun tournament. that will take place next month and there's something about, you know -- it's early season workouts. these guys are playing an hour and a half and they're off to get their tee times. it's a sign that spring is back, baseball will soon be a part of our daily rhythms again. >> super bowl ends, and you're wondering what i'm going to talk to other human beings about, and here comes baseball. it's great. joe, the yankees, aaron judge has been down in tampa for a couple of days getting reps at first base. he might move around a little bit. a big new left arm in the rotation top to bottom. five great pitchers. could be a very exciting season. as you know, we're all just trying to catch those astros. >> i'm just saying, you guys with your payroll, it doesn't even count. >> did you see the deal the hot

dog vendors got in boston? >> we paid them a lot of money. plus the 38-year-olds. it's not like we're planning for the future. we could talk about baseball or italy -- i find this to be fascinating. you never know how somebody is going to be when they get in power. a lot of populists talk a big game and she understands, suddenly, what most people in the eu understand suddenly, it's a good deal for the country, especially a condition with as much debt. but giorgia meloni arose from the ashes of mussolini. she's just being downright mainstream, presenting a good budget, and now the eu and european leaders have a choice to make. do we let her into the club or do we do what macron did last week and not invite her to a

meeting with other european leaders and zelenskyy. >> the realization with meloni -- i think there was no doubt that her party had been linked to neofascist movements. she realizes where the money is coming from in europe and that comes from brussels. and so she's been moderating her budget and she's been having good meetings with european leaders over that. but even on issues like ukraine where there had been fears that she would be really in the pro-putin wing of europe's more extreme parties on the right hand, she hasn't been. she's embraced zelenskyy and been solid on support of ukraine as well. i have friends who work in the italian ministry of culture, for example, who says actually in some areas like immigration, gay rights, for example, abortion, cultural issues, she has allowed areas of her party to be more

extreme on that. she hasn't tamped them down fully. but nothing like perhaps what people had expected. it does leave europeans in the position of do we embrace her and give her sort of, okay, you can be on the right of european politics, or do we carry on shunning her, having -- when she's doing what we kind of -- >> it doesn't make sense to shun her at all. she had been invited to paris -- >> europe is their biggest -- >> big, important country. >> third largest economy. it's one thing for hungary to be hungary. they disgrace themselves by going over there and taking money and claim their reagan conservatives and selling out to a guy who hates western democracy. we can't do that with italy. why not encourage this kind of behavior? we've seen what's happened in

poland -- >> i think the only choice nor the europeans is to take her as she is. if she's going to present herself as a reasonable person -- >> was she like this all along and just promoting this image during the election or has she seen the light as a pragmatist? >> as an opposition candidate, she was further to the right than she is now. who knows if that was in her heart. she had years of projecting herself on the opposition as being more pro-putin. i don't know if the word fascist is what you would use. but in that wing of politics. >> i would say also, the eu, i saw firsthand the impact the eu has on countries with smaller gdps than italy. they have a great interstate

system in poland. and somebody said, eu. and then we went to a rest stop. i said this is better than any rest stop in america. it's so clean. i never knew -- they go eu. the eu really does -- it has a big impact on these -- >> britain ought to think about joining. >> it's a good idea. it's a good idea. >> should we not going there this morning? 6:07 in the morning. sorry, guys. >> everybody tuned in to figure out sort of the nuances of italian politics, you got that now. let's go to willie with the news. >> the ratings show they love discussion of polish rest stops. >> it's huge. >> the numbers are the numbers. what are you going to do? >> why do you think i sprinkle it in? i'm not proud of myself. but you got to do what you got to do. >> let's turn to another story making headlines this morning. nbc news has learned the special counsel investigating former president donald trump's

handling of classified documents now is seeking to compel a lawyer for the former president to testify before a grand jury. that's according to a source familiar with the matter. in the sign of an aggressive new legal strategy first reported by the "new york times," the source says special counsel jack smith has asked a judge to allow prosecutors to invoke what is known as the crime fraud exception which would let them sidestep protections afforded to evan corcoran through attorney-client privilege. prosecutors alleged in a filing they have evidence some of the former president's conversations with the attorney were in furtherance of a crime. corcoran was believed to have asserted attorney-client privilege. the source did not say which questions the government is trying to force corcoran to answer. we've reached out to corcoran

and a trump spokesperson for comment. some of the trump attorneys hiding behind attorney-client privilege. what jack smith reported to say, if you guys you were talking as attorney and client about committing a crime, we can get into those conversations. >> that's different. legal experts suggest that attorney-client privilege is real, but it's narrower than people think. barbara mcquade voicing that opinion. and to your point, the suggestion that if trump and corcoran were talking about committing a crime, that doesn't apply. they know he had been pleading the fifth when he testified before a grand jury in washington not too long ago. we should talk about what this signifies. it's clearly an escalation from jack smith that he is going after something that usually you don't see in these investigations which is indeed the attorney of -- the subject of the case and a suggestion among some analysts who believe a signal that maybe he's

entering the final stages of this investigation. this is not something you would do early on. it's a sign that you're doing so because sooner than later, you might be bringing charges. >> this is an aggressive tactic if this is what jack smith is doing, the special counsel, and you always know when donald trump is hearing the footsteps, he posted a long rant on his social media platform where he was the gestapo came for his, quote, so-called documents. they're not documents. they're mementos. >> they're folders to stop the blue light by his bedside. that's all they are. you know he's december -- desperate when he starts talking that way. they started talking about witnesses lying, that getting out with all the other information getting out. and here, i don't know what stage this is of the

investigation. when they start calling your lawyer, they try to pierce attorney-client privilege, let's just say, that is never good news for the potential defendant. >> so, yes, i would caveat, we've had conversations about the walls closing in on trump many times before. >> only about 8,000 times over six years. >> the walls must be -- >> i didn't say that. >> to your point, i think the big vulnerability it seems to me is ultimately going to be on this obstruction issue with respect to these documents. that seems more clear cut than anything that has happened prior to then because it's so simple, right? we needed these documents from you. you defied our request for them and not only that, now it appears we believe that your lawyers misled about the amount of documents in your possession. when your lawyers need to get lawyers, that's generally not good. and i think -- >> that's the case with most of trump's lawyers. >> basically.

and i think in this case there's obviously multipronged elements here, we have the georgia investigation, the subpoena for pence that he's going to defy. in this case, this one seems where jack smith has a clear lane that he's going down and it's very difficult to understand what the actual response is from the trump team to the charge that you obstructed this investigation. >> there really doesn't seem to be a good defense when your lawyers are signing documents swearing that you've returned all the -- >> he'll say, you know, in my mind, i declassified everything. but it just doesn't really pass -- >> but the quality of the law from day one, elizabeth, has been poor. he picks people off of television and who the hell wants anybody representing them that's on television. he picks people off of television. you know he doesn't pay them well. one lawyer after another lawyer comes into the picture and goes out. and he has so many problems facing him right now. >> we counted up, there's

probably about 20 to two dozen lawyers at any given point representing trump and they all have lawyers. but in this case, what's interesting, you can't tell from this whether the prosecutor -- whether jack smith thinks that evan corcoran the lawyer or donald trump committed the crime or both. it's hard to tell from the filing. but it looks like what he's zeroing in on is the fact that it was in june that evan corcoran drafted, according to people, the statement saying, you have all the documents, we've turned them all over, and then in august, of course, a lot more turn over. >> it strikes me that the idea of piercing the attorney-client privilege, trying to get beyond it, is in essence saying to corcoran, look, it's going to be you or your -- >> right. >> your client is blaming you. so tell us, who is going to jail? are you going to jail or your client? >> you can tell these smart trump lawyers from the dumb ones. the smart ones demand to be paid

up front. there's a couple of them who have instead of the others. >> if you're client tells you i have turned over everything and you sign this and you write a document saying this, who is it -- who is liable there? given trump's history, right, wouldn't you think that any lawyer is not just going to take the former president's word for this. they're going to want to see and go through the evidence themselves. it seems a little unbelievable to me that corcoran would have trump come to him and say -- >> that's why you -- that's why you get lawyers off of television who only want the attention. they're not going to do -- >> the due diligence and actually find out. >> they're not going to do the due diligence. they're not -- >> ultimately, we were talking about how biden's classified documents issue muddied this. i think it's the opposite. what biden ended up doing was showing a template participation and cooperation with federal investigators that will be used as a contrast to what corcoran,

trump and others did down in mar-a-lago. >> i've got to say. i believe from the very beginning that biden having these documents, doing it the right away, pence, having the documents, doing it the right way, actually wasn't a mitigating factor for donald trump, it actually -- >> aggravated -- >> it was an aggravating factor because it gives us actually now three very clear approaches to this. you can immediately contact the archives, you can do what pence did, which was immediately -- let people search the house or you can do what donald trump did, lie about it, have your lawyer sign documents. i mean, sam is right. of all the things people are going after with donald trump, the easiest to prove is the obstruction. >> sam is right. >> sam is right. but i still question how much these distinctions are going to matter if trump is indicted and

nothing happens with joe biden. imagine what the republican party is going to say. >> of course. >> but, see that's -- it doesn't really matter. i mean, it really doesn't matter. and that's the thing, people were talking about politics. i just think that at some point republicans are going to say we really wish we had just given merrick garland the seat. because at the end of the day i think he's the guy that goes by the book so much, he's not going to -- what are they going to be thinking about me on the hill? despite all the nasty things that progressives say about him on twitter, i think he's interested in justice. and at the end of the day doesn't give a damn what republicans on the hill are going to be saying about him on twitter. and that's not going to accrue to the benefit of donald trump. >> he's offended that justice is anything but justice. you know, i tend to agree with you, that that's the way he goes. if he believes he has a case

that he should and must prosecute and that he can -- >> i guess on the politics of it, elizabeth, the question is, is there anyone who is remotely open to persuading either way on this? yes, of course, republicans will say that donald trump is being treated differently and their guy is the victim of the administrative state. but i don't know that there are more than four people in the whole country that are open to being persuaded -- >> this occurs in the context of a republican primary fight. there's going to be a class of republicans who will use the idea of trump being potentially under indictment against him saying this man presents a huge number of liabilities for us if he becomes our nominee. if that's persuasive, i don't know. it's not something you want hanging over you while you're trying to duke it out -- >> it's not going to help. you look at the polls on whether people trump did something wrong, that should be charged, a majority say he should. we'll see what happens.

willie, there are going to be a lot of republicans who are going to figure out other nuances if donald trump does get indicted because the field looks like it's going to start filling up with a lot of people who used to work for donald trump. >> a lot of people used to work with him, critical of him at first, praised him later, critical of him after january 6th, worked in his administration, now running for president. nikki haley is the first of what is likely to be a number of former trump administration figures to announce a run. she made her candidacy official yes. she will hold an event today in south carolina and expected to travel to new hampshire for three days of town hall events. she will head to iowa. former president trump responding without attacking haley. in a statement he wrote, i told her she should follow her heart and do what she wants to do. i wish her luck wrote the former president. at least two other trump administration alumni are expected to enter the race for the republican nomination as

well. former vice president mike pence has been traveling to key states. he'll visit minnesota and iowa today. and former secretary of state mike pompeo says he'll decide if he'll run in the next handful of months. his team has reached out to potential staffers in some early primary states. meanwhile, mitch mcconnell was asked yesterday about nikki haley's announcement and whether it's time for the party to, quote, find a fresh face and move away from donald trump. here's what mcconnell had to say. >> well, what i think we're going to have is a vigorous primary with a number of candidates making their case and the american people, those who are registered republicans who are going to participate in these primaries are going to decide who they want to nominate. and i think it's going to be very, very competitive in these primaries and we'll hope for the best and obviously i'm going to support whoever the nominee

ultimately is. >> john, it's a refrain we've heard many times. people who claim they don't like donald trump say they'll support him if he becomes the nominee. interesting how donald trump handles didn't opponents. nikki haley, he wishes her luck. ron desantis is a groomer. >> he's saying, the water is warm, come on in. it's in his best interest for this field to get as big as possible. we know his base, his core base probably isn't going anywhere and they're going to follow him and the more -- the bigger the field, the better it is for him. he and haley have had a reasonably good relationship. she, of course, was his ambassador to the united nations. she has flip-flopped a lot as to whether or not trump did the wrong thing on january 6th. whether or not she would run. she initially said she wouldn't if trump was in. she obviously changed her mind. i suspect that trump will have warm words for others in his administration who also might want to run.

robert o'brien, john bolton are also considering candidacies. we'll see how feasible any of those are. on haley, there's a sense that she wanted to get in ahead of tim scott, senator from south carolina, her home state thinking that she needed to jump in first to ward off that challenge. look, this gives her a few days of headlines here. she's polling low. but this gives her a chance to have the stage to herself for a few days. we're waiting to see when others jump in. and the biggest fish into the water is ron desantis. there's no chance that trump will welcome him. >> and governor desantis was asked about nikki haley and asked about an announcement and he didn't engage with the question. do you see any of these nikki haley for starters and other potential candidates running against donald trump whether it's mike pence or mike pompeo or potentially governor ron

desantis as well? >> you know that caesars calls me when they want to set the lines for these political elections and you will remember weeks out we put the over/under for macron at 58.5%. and it was 58.5%. i'm now ready to do the over and under for every candidate we just mentioned -- >> hold on. i'll write it down. >> every candidate we just mentioned. nikki haley, the over/under, 2.5%, john bolton, 0.5%, mike pompeo, 1.25%, mike pence, 5%, tim scott, 4.5%. who else do we have there? >> larry hogan, brian kemp, chris sununu.

>> i got to say -- well, i mean, kemp, zero and larry hogan, god bless him in this primary, john bolton 1.5%. i'm sorry. that's pretty much it. sununu is an interesting one. i'm not willing to keep him in low single digits. put him at 7.5%. but he's an interesting one. i still think -- gene, i still think this is donald trump's fill. i think everybody you put up on stage maybe with the exception -- and i'll say this, from chris sununu who is at 70-plus percent up in new hampshire and doesn't put up with a lot of you know what, i think he can kind of punch him back. >> maybe he can. we've got to see how some of these candidates will perform on a national stage and how they play in the rest of the country.

including ron desantis. i know he does well in the polls. when he gets out there, he will be i think the most humorless, bombastic major candidate for president in a long time. >> i think that's going to end very bad. i think that's one of these things, he's cloistered caddie in tallahassee. get him outside of tallahassee -- >> what was the over/under on desantis? >> i think it's going to start as high as a chinese balloon over montana, and by the time it gets to south carolina -- they're going to be looking -- >> i speak pretty confident, desantis won't be able to withstand the trump attacks. he's too awkward on a debate

stage and trump will walk all over him. they seem confident that he'll go the way of all the others in 2016. >> his stick is call a performance, ban library books, attack trans athletes and then yell at a female reporter. like a woman will ask him a question, and then he'll yell and walk off the stage and people will say he's great -- >> it worked for donald trump. but he's a very different candidate than donald trump. say what you want about donald trump. he was entertaining talking to people, right? he was. >> it was a show. >> he was a show. he was an entertainer. and ron desantis does not show any of that. but he's done very well just by doing nothing. just staying in florida. >> right. >> and, you know, he's like the -- the big challenger to trump. he hasn't gone out there at all. >> it's very safe in florida

when you're in tallahassee. and i'm dead serious, standing behind your podium at very staged events, again, charlie crist asked him a basic questions, are you going to run for president, and he looked lost. a sheep wandering around the field looking for his shepherd. a look donald trump has never had. the only time i've seen donald trump look that confused is when somebody put a big mac and a bucket of kentucky fried chicken in front of him. >> was he that confused that is? i don't know. >> i'm a little bit more bullish that -- >> on desantis? >> yeah, just because there's an appetite among republicans for someone other than trump. i'm not saying trump doesn't own a huge -- >> why don't we talk about the "politico" morning consult this morning. >> yes, thank you for that opportunity. we did a poll, looked at the preference of gop voters.

what you can see is -- >> shocking. >> shocking numbers here. important ones, nonetheless. they want a conservative. they want no one under 70. >> that actually is the takeaway line. >> that and also i thought the number that was intriguing of these numbers was the political outsider. usually you get voters saying, yeah, i want someone who is not part of the system. i don't like the governing body. in this case, it's not all that important to them. and i think both -- two things come to mind. one, trump is not an outsider. former president. but, two, i don't think desantis is an outsider either. he came up through congress and he's a governor. and so there is an appetite for someone with actual experience. but under the age of 70 really does stick out. they're like democrats too. they want someone younger and so in this case i do think there's a good chunk of the party that's going to say, i want to move on from trump. desantis struggles if the field

is crowded and he really does benefit if fewer people jump in and it's just him and trump. when you see nikki haley get in, tim scott announcing he's going to get in, mike pence, who knows, pompeo, that is the best thing that trump has going for him is a splintered field where he can get that 35% of the voting bloc which would be just like 2016. >> willie, if you look at the numbers that were just up, if you get a chance to put them back up, the two numbers that are fascinating are under the age of 70 and also has decades of political experience. there actually is, that line suggests, some buyer's remorse in getting a reality tv show host who promised a lot of things but really at the end of the day delivered mostly gestures other than federal judges, and i actually think this a very good development. i don't want an outsider in the white house. i don't want an outsider when i need brain surgery. i don't even want an outsider

when i need to go to the dentist. i want somebody who has been a dentist more than 15 minutes. and this fiction that both parties have been pushing over the past 20, 30 years that we need outsiders, mainly republicans, people who come in and shake things up, no, they don't shake things up. they get shaken down. they don't know how to run this city. i'm not going to mention any names because i would offend people on both sides of the aisle. we've had too many people that became -- that became presidents of the united states over the past 30 years that loved to tell us how much they didn't like washington and would go upstairs and watch espn at 6:30 at night. >> who could that be? >> we're going to get our research staff on that. >> it narrows it down to two. but go ahead. >> the other problem, too, for governor desantis is how does he go after donald trump? this is the guy who had his children in maga outfits, using

red blocks to build that wall, build that wall. i don't know how you pledge fealty and give credit to donald trump and turn on him in a primary. maybe he can pull it off. we'll see if he gets in. we've got a busy morning ahead. we have gary peters of michigan joining us to talk about the mass shooting at michigan state. also a live report from eastern europe where ukrainian forces on the front lines are in need of supplies. plus, ron desantis, continues his campaign gets woke politics. we'll explain the movement that is the latest target for the florida governor. a bit later, democratic senator jon tester of montana joins us to talk about the chinese surveillance balloon that flew over his state and the other unidentified objects the military has shot down since. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. ching "morn" we'll be right back.

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russia has begun its new offensive in eastern ukraine and ukrainian officials are warning the country's fighters are getting low on ammunition. nbc news chief foreign correspondent richard engel has details. >> reporter: ukrainian tanks on the front lines are running out of ammunition. commanders say stocks are so low they now only shoot when they can see their enemy. we use as little ammunition as we can, but still it's disappearing says a commander. >> can you stop this russian offensive? >> now we can only hold them off, he says, but nobody knows how long we can keep doing it. their equipment is just too old. >> see if we can get in now. this tank like most ukrainian tanks and about 50 years old.

and spare parts are a problem, ammunition is a major problem, because ukraine isn't making ammunition for these old tanks anymore. they are using the stockpiles that they already have and those stockpiles are quickly running out. russia still produces ammunition for its tanks and has huge reserves. but here in ukraine, tractor mechanics are keeping the old machines running and using parts from destroyed tanks until help arrives. nato is warning ukraine is using so much ammunition of all types that western allies cannot provide it fast enough with new orders taking up to two years to deliver. >> richard engel reporting from ukraine there. joining us now, nbc news chief international correspondent keir simmons on the belarusian side where tensions are high this morning as ukraine prepares for a new russian offensive. what are you seeing on the border?

>> well, we're right here on the border. the ukrainian border is just a little way that way. i'll show you that in a moment. we're on the russian side, if you like, of the front line with ukraine, albeit in belarus. but remember president lukashenko ultimately probably owes his position to president putin here in belarus. this is a part of the world where belarusian observers say 600 russian missiles have been fired from where russian troops have been training, where russian equipment is based and, of course, where that initial offensive back in february was launched from here in belarus. let me show you what we're seeing. we're on the border. there in the distance, we're seeing, this is the belarusian control using dogs. they're trying to show us that they are defending, protecting their border with ukraine effectively as you can imagine,

the whole border is closed. take you back around this way, willie, and just walk with me a little bit in this direction. the ukrainian border is about less than half a mile down along this road in that direction. so this is -- it doesn't feel tense, but it is a tense border, of course. albeit, we are along the western side, the ukrainian city of lviv is about 150 miles over there. so the action, if you like, is expected in the east. russia is in that direction and, of course, willie, the big question right now and richard engel has been reporting that a new russian offensive is under way. the big question is when that offensive gets away -- gets under way in ernest, that it happens from the east, whether, again, belarus will be part of that now. one of the important things about being here, of course, is to try to see whether there is

any sign of that. we haven't seen any sign of that. the belarusians are showing us around. there are reports of russian troops on belarusian territory over towards the east. but it could be that some of that is about trying to persuade the ukrainians that there will be an offensive here to dilute their forces, if you like, make it harder for them to mount a defense. so this is -- we're very close to ukraine. literally just there. we're on the belarusian side. and this is a fairly unique opportunity to see this. the belarusians putting on a press tour of all of this. the question, again, is whether belarus at some point will enter the conflict with the russians. my judgment would be that that's going to be unlikely, that president lukashenko will think it will be too disruptive to his

own position inside of belarus to do that. all that being said, he's supporting the russians. i think that's -- that seems unlikely at this stage. certainly in terms of what we've seen here, it seems like it's something that isn't going to happen. >> it seems like a provocative step to join the fighting on that side. keir simmons giving us a good look at the border. as the anniversary of the russian invasion comes up next week, the white house, we're told, is preparing some massive aid packages to ukraine to keep the government running in kyiv on the one hand and then, of course, much more military aid which richard engel showed us is desperately needed, and not just from the united states, but europe as well. to get the ammunition, at least, for starters into the hands of ukrainian fighters. >> right, a lot to talk about there. but you've been talking to sources on the hill that tell you, even if the republicans were to do the politically --

just idiotic thing and cut off zelenskyy and the freedom fighters in ukraine, biden's got things lined up to keep them going for quite some time. >> yeah, after kevin mccarthy said before the speaker fight that he was no longer -- no longer going to be a blank check nor ukraine. there was concerns that they would have to wrestle to get money out of the hill. but i've heard they've primed the pump enough for a supply of weapons to ukraine that would last through this year at least. the sort of time frame that i'm hearing people here in washington looking at is by november of 2024, because they assume that whoever runs against joe biden will run as the antiukraine war candidate saying we can't carry on supporting ukraine and that for the ukrainians, if they can try to get as far as they are going to get by november of 2024, that's the realistic time frame, this year has been held as an important year.

but nobody seems to think there's going to be a -- in this stage of it, this spring, a major win, a decisive win either by the russians or by the ukrainians and we're looking at a long grind over the course of this year, which is why nato is going to have to carry on having these meetings with a whip around saying who can supply what. >> so many -- so many people inside the white house and inside the pentagon are saying just what you're saying. we're not close to a position where it's ripe yet for negotiations. there are many that are expecting an aggressive ukrainian offensive in the spring and the summer. that will be fascinating to see how that goes. right now, though, looking at "the washington post," the challenge of supplying the ukrainians just continues to go up and it's -- >> yeah, i mean, it's a logistical challenge. we got to get all the right stuff that they need and then

you got to get it in there. and in a timely fashion. not too much that they can't absorb it. yet you have to get enough so they can -- they have what they need to use and it's coming from all different angles and all different countries. it's -- it's a challenge. but, you know, people i talk to are looking at this as a long campaign. for being in it for the long haul, that's what it's going to take. >> the only one caveat that i've heard, the real game changer would be if the chinese change tactics. at the moment, the chinese have been giving the ukrainians everything but military hardware support. if the chinese were to say, here's the key to the chinese stock, that would -- if they were to stay to the russians, we're going to start supplying you with runs, that would have a difference and that worries people. >> i will say, the ukrainians are very fortunate.

so many of us who are outside of ukraine are very fortunate that president xi has made one misstep after another misstep over the last five years. they're not in an economic position to do that right now. if they were growing at 8 or 9% like they were a few years ago, maybe they would take that chance. i don't know that they can take the chance now. we'll see. willie, the longer this war goes also not good news for vladimir putin who may be trying to stall until he thinks donald trump is going to get re-elected president of the united states. the longer this goes, the more we see those old warsaw pact country supplies running out and western weapons getting into the hands of trained ukrainian fighters. at that point, things go from bad to worse for mr. putin. >> they're using that soviet era equipment on the side of russia. the president, president biden will be in poland next week.

do we have any sense what's going to be and what may not be in these massive packages that he's set to roll out? zelenskyy has asked for jets. >> at least for now, jets aren't expected to be part of this package. the message the white house is sending is, look, we're able to funnel as much as you need right now. that could change eventually. they think at a certain point, there will be republican resistance. eventually the u.s. will not be able to fully fund ukraine at the level they are now. they think the same could happen from some european capitals as the war drags on. and biden's appearance in poland comes at an interesting moment. a year out, it is remarkable that ukraine is still standing. it is remarkable the resistance they have put up and kept russia largely at bay. russia does control 20% of the

country. the fighting there is very slow and incremental right now and there's no sense that putin is going to stop. the major offensive isn't going to be something that resembled last february with, you know, suddenly a drive for kyiv, but rather just more russian men, more russian men, just trying to make slow progress, joe, it's going to be this stagnant thing and the hope is, though, is that ukraine would be able to launch its own counteroffensive to try to repel that and maybe get some sweeping gains and at the end of the spring offensive, there's a sense that both sides will look at where things stand. maybe then we start having thoughts about a negotiated settlement. that's a long way off. >> but you talk about the meat grinder, you see the images from world war i, you see the movies, read the books about world war i and you just wonder how russia is stumbling into this again. but it's exactly what they're

doing. >> while this debate is going on, we did a story recently about the wartime production of weapons going on in the united states for ukraine. it's like world war ii. there are two factories we visited, one in pennsylvania where they make shells for the ukrainian military and then they go to iowa where they're filled with explosives and shipped to ukraine. there's a huge production going on. big employment for these two places. and it's -- it's old-fashioned weapons, artillery, and they're stepped up production in a big way over the next couple of years. >> wow. >> it's interesting. these are big employment -- big employment for these places. >> that's fascinating. coming up, more republican governors and legislatures are pushing to keep their states away from investments promoting what they deemed to support the liberal agenda. they're losing so much money -- black rock is woke. no. black rock just wants to make

money and they're stupid enough to divest to make a political point and then they lose millions and millions of dollars for the retirees. our next guest says that owning the libs is proving to be wildly costly not only for taxpayers but for republican candidates. we'll explain straight ahead on "morning joe." ight ahead on "morning joe."

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it's a beautiful live picture of the white house at 6:52 on a wednesday. ron desantis announced a series of proposals to crack down on environmental, social and governance criteria in deciding how to invest state funds. it's the favoring of investment choices. it's come under fire from many republicans who say it's just woke thinking dominating corporate board rooms. governor desantis called such policies elitist and

discriminatory. >> affects our national security. when you have to go to foreign countries that are hostile to us to try to get energy, that is not a good place to be in. but what esg wants to do is they want to put a premium against that type of business. it's also bad for our national security when you're doing this stuff with esg. you're increasing the costs that businesses have to comply with here in the united states. what esg says is, no, we're not going to do -- even if it would do a better return, we're not going to allow you to invest in certain areas. you're not allowed to invest in oil and gas, not allowed to invest in disfavored areas. they're constricting the ability of people to invest your money and obviously that means you're going to not do as well as you otherwise could have. sometimes people will try to say that you do better with this, but that doesn't make any sense. >> financial times notes at

least 49 anti-esg bills have been introduced across the country this year. joining us now liz hoffman who is here. it's great to have you with us. we really want to bore into this. first, let's take the topic of esg and for an audience who may not know in shorthand, what is it exactly, and what is it not? >> it's one of those things where the -- perhaps like crt where the acronym has become something more than the sum of its parts. you might think of it as green investing, or sustainable investing. the problem with esg, it means different things to different people. it's mostly about carbon emissions and pollution and things like that. the "s" is problematic. it's shorthand for taking care of employees, for some people it

has to do with the culture wars, you saw the problems that disney had stepping in and out of that, that story last year, and so it's just -- it has become a little bit of a boogeyman for everyone and basically nobody likes it as it currently stands. >> what is governor desantis, for example, he's been the loudest critic, what is his specific objection in florida, for example? >> his specific objective in florida has to do with cultural issues. if you remember back to last year, disney was under some pressure to take a position on the -- what was called the "don't say gay" bill, the sort of educational measures in florida. he decided not too and then he decided to and then it turned into kind of a mess for disney. but the upshot for ron desantis, he said to -- florida's most important corporate citizen, we don't want you, we don't want your money. and it became very politically advantageous in the moment for

the governor, but a problem for disney. >> joe, here's the problem. the piece is titled backlash to the backlash. here's what we're talking about. in indiana, for example, the budget office found that a bill forcing state pensions to divest from these kind of funds could cost the state $6.7 billion over the next decade, retirees would have to put more from their paychecks to make up the difference. >> $6.7 billion in indiana. i'm going to say, i read your article, i was dying laughing. and i was dying laughing because these idiot who is are trying to own the libs are shooting themselves in the foot. i mean, you look at what happened in texas, they were going to do the same. but going after blackrock and saying we're not going to invest in blackrock because they're too woke, it's like i don't like tom brady, and his politics may be a little quirky, i'm going to bet against him in super bowls.

they're cutting off their nose despite their faces and what i thought was most fascinating about the article is, you have states -- i think it was north dakota that, like, woke up and said, hold on a second. maybe we like money more than we like, quote, owning the libs. >> no, that's exactly right. this is basic supply and demand. when you reduce the supply of something, you get a worse product. so think back to texas in 2021 passed a law that said -- it kicked a bunch of banks out of the markets for underwriting municipal bonds. and a bunch of banks left and the banks that were left charged them more. and there was a study that found it cost texans 300 to $500 million. maybe governor greg abbott is okay with that, his voters are okay with that, but i'm a

finance reporter and so i come from a world where you have an obligation to maximum profits for your investors and these aren't just like regular investors. they're pensioners, taxpayers, these are people who drive buses and work in hospitals. and so i think there's a -- an increasingly kind of a reckoning with that tension between political ambition and your duty to maximum profits for the people who have trusted you with their retirements. >> sam, it's funny. it's republicans who are making these stupid business decisions. ron desantis doesn't like a tweet that the rays put out, so he decides to take away a tax incentive for them. he goes after mickey mouse, which i -- he's attacking all of these businesses for political purposes. at some point people are going to say, well, maybe we'll move to another state. you look at greg abbott, a guy can't keep power on in the winter in texas and the summer

when it gets hot there. and now he's losing $500 million to own the libs. it's -- >> there's no price tag you can put on owning the libs. i will say, this to me is a great indication of sort of the closed off ecosystems that a lot of republicans and some democrats too live in. esg just not many people actually know what it is except for the sort of anti-woke components of the republican party. we know this because "politico" we did a report, and we followed one of the leading intellectual authors of this movement. he's running for president. it's not really totally relevant that he's running for president. but it did bring him out to iowa where he was talking to all these people in this recent trip about how woke investment needs to be curtailed, anti-esg stuff. and reaction from iowa officials

was, what is esg? >> nobody cares. >> and to bring this back to an earlier conversation to ron desantis, i think one of his -- one of the things that may be a shortcoming for him, he's so online. a lot of what he does is driven by the online conversation. he's just different in that he takes it and implements into government policy and that's what -- >> maybe he should go online and learn how business works. why would blackrock become -- go into esg. because they believe that's the way they're going to make more money. that's the future. that's where they need to be -- long run for them -- >> if you -- >> and the short run. >> if you go to the middle east where they pump most of the oil out of the ground, they will tell you they've got 20 years. >> exactly. >> they're going to run out. >> they're investing in everything else because they're like, this is running out. we have 20 years. we've got to diversify.

this was the future like 40 years ago. it's not the future anymore. so they make these choices that makes a lot of sense for them. but again it's just -- the republicans are so short-sighted here. it doesn't make any good political sense. and secondly, these corporations, if they're deciding to be a little woke here or there, they're not sitting there going, oh, we must do the right thing. they're sitting there going, how do we get 18 to 39-year-olds more attracted to -- >> this is where they are. this is what they want. and those are our customers of the president and especially the future and that's where we need to be. >> yeah. elizabeth, i've never understood this, like, attacking corporations for being woke. when these politicians should know. they're just doing what they think is in their best interest. we have survey after survey that shows 18-year-olds to 29-year-olds are far more progressive, even into the 30s,

far more progressive than past generations. and so if you -- that's when people attach to brands, so that's why they're trying to be a little more woke here, a little more woke there. >> and also investing in green technology. going back -- >> that's the future. >> yes, and these corporations didn't have to be forced into it. they saw the future. and they're ahead -- they're way ahead of congress on the environment. and that was a big surprise maybe ten years ago when it started. it started on its own. >> by the way, jonathan, whoever controls -- whoever does the breakthrough on green technology, green fusion now, they own the future. this is -- it would be stupid to say let's keep drilling for 20 years until it runs out. no corporation thinks that way. >> good for the planet. also highly profitable, most likely. so, liz, let's talk about what are the next fronts on this

particular battle, this anti-esg movement, where desantis at put himself at the pinnacle. >> i would make one point first which is most of the noise has been from the right on this. but there's an argument to be made that liberals overinvest in things that are not profitable either. feel how you want about green energy, but there's sort of moral trade-offs to be made across the spectrum, between profits and principles. i would say conservatives are winning the war on this. this was not a thing that anyone was talking about a year, 18 months ago, everybody is talking about it. i would expect it to be a key issue in the 2024 race. i also was struck by that story about vivek. the reporter mentioned to someone, he's in town to talk about esg, and someone asked him, is he for it or against it.

it's an issue that's unformed enough that we'll see what happens with the political discourse. but, no, there's some ground being regained, i think, by the blackrocks of the world. i also also note that a lot of the political juice seems to me to already have been wrung out of this particular wash cloth which is to say black rock has been touting its investments in energy and it is still, you know, a giant shareholder in all the big energy companies. it's also made some -- it's ruled out new technology that if you're an investor in one of its funds, it used to vote its shares on your behalf for you when big issues came up, who should control the board of chevron, or get out of drilling. they want to get out of that business because they don't like the political heat. so i think a lot of the political gains have kind of already been taken off the table. but, look, the economy is fragile. you're under a lot of pressure to hit returns.

if you run a state investment board in north dakota, maybe you have strong views about this personally, but you have an obligation and your job depends on you beating the market. i don't think there's a lot of patience for this. >> interesting you mention north dakota. you point out the vote where they were going to have a blacklist for companies that support fossil fuel, it lost in a vote. >> the senator said you can't stand on principle and freeze to death. part of that is a little procedural. they have a couple other bills similar to that. but they proposed it in a way where they didn't realize it would choke out of funding to banks. >> very interesting to see where it goes from there. liz hoffman, thanks so much for your reporting. we appreciate it. as we cross the top of the

hour here, we're learning new details about the mass shooting at michigan state university a couple of nights ago. all eight of the victims were msu students and the five that were injured remain in critical condition as of last night. we've also learned the identities of those killed in shooting. their families describing them as student leaders who were beloved at michigan state. arielle anderson was a sophomore at msu. her uncle described her as being a straight "a" student, innocent and soft-spoken. she took up photography as a hobby and wanted to become a pediatrician according to her grandmother. 20-year-old alexandria verner was a junior from michigan. she was studying integrated biology and wet set to graduate in the spring. her senior spotlight, she said, she wanted to become a forensic scientist. she played volleyball, softball and basketball throughout her four years of high school. her father describing her as a beautiful soul. at a vigil last night, there was

a 24-second moment of silence held in her honor. 24 was her high school jersey number. 20-year-old brian fraser also a sophomore at msu. he was president of his fraternity at michigan state. frazier's sisters told reporters her family was not ready to speak, but she does not want her brother's name to be forgotten. she asked the reporter if her reporter had a sibling, to which the reporter replied, yes, a brother. she said, tell him you love him. police sent out an image of the suspected shooter at 11:18 p.m., a tip came 17 minutes later that led officers to the suspect. the 43-year-old man died of a self-inflicted gunshot wound after she was confronted by police. police confirmed yesterday the suspected gunman had a note in his pocket threatening two schools in new jersey where he had family ties. police officials say the suspect

had mental health issues but no lead on a motive. the suspected shooter was arrested in 2019 for carrying a loaded firearm without a concealed weapons permit. he was put on probation and was charged with one count of carrying a concealed weapon that was dismissed. if he had been found guilty of that charge, he would have been barred under federal law from buying or possessing a firearm. "the washington post" also reports, according to the suspected gunman's father, his son purchased a gun after his arrest and lied about having it in the home. neighbors of the family told nbc news they complained multiple times over the summer, the suspect had apparently fired shots outside of his house. the suspected shooter's father said his son became a recluse after his mother's death two years ago, telling nbc news, after she died, quote, he just started getting evil and mean. >> let's bring in gary peters of

michigan. he is an alumni of michigan state university. we're so sorry. >> well, thank you. it really hurts. there's no question about it. when you see -- have such a tragedy and a shooter walking across campus shooting these wonderful young people, it breaks everybody's heart. it's mixed emotions. we're very sad and certainly i give my condolences to the families who are suffering a great deal right now. but it also makes you angry. really angry that we continue to see these kind of attacks. 15 months ago, oxford high school had a mass shooting. one of the students who survived that mass shooting was in the -- was in the building and survived another mass shooting at michigan state, two mass shootings she went through in 15 months. to think that places where you should feel safe, schools, colleges, or sanctuaries, houses of worship that we can't feel safe now.

we have to take action. we've got to do things. >> and these students, it's such a tragedy. these students and for me as a dad, they look like kids. >> they are. >> right, right. and the fact that our children have to be going through this every day at a different school, at a different place, and half to go through the drills, they have to go through, we talked about this a good bit yesterday. this is a pandemic, an epidemic moving towards a pandemic. ten years ago, after sandy hook, since that time, murders from guns have gone up 50 to 75%. it keeps getting worse. there's 71 mass shootings so far. in 2023, 71 mass shootings and, what, in 36 days, 46 days. >> right. >> the senate took a couple of

small steps last year. what's next? what can be done? americans want gun safety laws passed. every poll shows it. >> right. and polls show it's not just a majority, it's an overwhelming majority of americans who want to see this passed. point in perspective, you talked about the number of mass shootings already, we know roughly 100 people die every single day of gun violence in this country. 100 people today will die, tomorrow, another 100 people will die to the hands of gun violence. half are suicides, the other half homicides. we took a meaningful step, but it was not a particularly large step. certainly not what i would have liked or most of us would have liked, it was a step forward. i would hope as we continue to see these kinds of incidents, so that we can take those next steps -- >> the state of michigan is going to move, however, now that

governor whitmer and democrat control of both houses, they're looking at a new universal background checks, red flag law, which michigan doesn't have now, and a gun safety law. storage law. it will require, you know, that we don't have situations like the 6-year-old in newport news got a gun from home and brought it in and shot the teacher. these are basic simple things that i think will get passed in michigan. but they're not being passed in ohio, indiana, in wisconsin. right across the border. >> absolutely. and the reason we'll see this passed in michigan, we had a change in the legislature. for the first time in 40 years, we have a democratic majority in both the house and senate, governor whitmer has been enjoying great leadership in this, so we're going to be able to get them passed. that doesn't occur around the country. we need of a national movement when it comes to -- when you're

looking at background checks, making sure the folks don't get through. we think that the shooter here probably should have never had a weapon. he had a weapons violation. how did he acquire that weapon? there are loopholes when it comes to buying weapons. we have to close the loopholes. and 85 to 90% of the american people think that is what we should do and so we need to put it ton floor in the senate. i think we want to keep being aggressive in getting it on the floor, getting folks to vote and hope voters hold those folks accountable who are not taking the kind of actions to save lives. we know these bills will save lives. >> president biden has talked about doing something over and over again. we saw that bill last year. he has signed executive action, but gun safety groups have said to him, we want more. do you want to see more from president biden on executive orders, other actions that he can do from the oval office? it doesn't seem like things are going to move forward in congress. >> i want to see more action. whatever he can do.

i think he wants to do that. he'll take those kinds of actions. we're going to keep pressing that to happen. i hope we can do this legislatively as well and continue to put pressure on folks to do what the american people believe is long overdo which is putting commonsense gun safety. i enjoy hunting. having background checks, safety locks on your weapons, red flag -- >> by the way, crazy thing that gun owners, i'm a gun owner, i have more than one. gun owners, gun shop owners, people that are around guns the most, that hunt, whose fathers took them out hunting when they were, you know, 6, 7 years old for the first time, they actually are the biggest proponents of gun safety, of respecting the danger of a gun, of keeping shotguns locked up, keeping handguns locked up. keeping ammunition and handguns

away from each other. if there's a troubled person, making sure they don't have access to it. that's what's so screwed up about this debate. you have the nra pushing all of these things and a couple of crazy people on the hill pushing the most extreme positions, overwhelming majority of members of the nra don't support. >> that's right. we talk about those opinion polls, i think it was 75% of nra gun owners think we should have comprehensive background checks. this is commonsense. not being able to move it is an outrage which goes back to my statement in addition to the sorry we're feeling right now, we've got to feel anger. this is just -- this is just crazy that this is happening. >> and it keeps happening, this news story, we hear about this guy shooting out his window and complaints being made to police officers. i mean, the guy should have -- they should have searched the

house, taken -- strong red flag laws are in place, you have a guy who is mentally unbalanced, he's got a gun in his possession, shooting it out of the windows in the neighborhood before this happens, this is something that can be prevented. >> and then his father questioned him about it and he said it was fireworks going on. clearly the father was concerned about him too and he lied to his dad about having the gun. what is frustrating in these situations is when they happen, the response used to be, now is not the time to talk about gun safety laws. we've moved away from that but moved, well, none of the laws would have prevented this particular shooting. it's become almost an excuse not to do anything. what's happened in this country, a list of things that joe biden wants to do, banning assault weapons, what's happened in america since the 1990s when republicans voted in favor of that? i mean, it was -- what has changed in this country and you

only have to think that it's the republican party that has moved the country away from being able to implement things that the majority of the country wants. the organs of the state are not working in the way -- >> on the show yesterday, talked about the nra gun safety class he took when he was younger. i remember georgia h.w. bush resigning from the nra when they started calling the atf jack-booted thugs. they began fund-raising off of paranoia and they continue fund-raising off of paranoia and they stir that paranoia up to make money. the consequences, of course, we see it every day in these mass shootings because the proliferation of guns. >> it's always a slippery slope argument. if we get universal background checks, there's going to be a list. that's the mentality of that. and senator peters, you

mentioned the freshman at michigan state, her name is emma riddle. she was in oxford. she was hiding under her desk, called her parents and said i can't believe this is happening again. there's a senior named jackie matthews. she's from connecticut. she was at sandy hook elementary school. now we have a generation of kids who are surviving school shootings at their elementary and high schools and going through them again at their college. what do you say to emma and jackie and all the kids who are worried that it could happen to me? >> well, it is a tragedy and that's why we have to take action on this and when you think about what students go through, they train for this. when i was a kid, we used to have tornado drills. plan for a tornado. and now children have shooter drills. which is insane that's happening

in the country that we're in right now which is why we take action. the legislation we passed last year does provide resources for school safety and counseling in schools as well to try to deal with it. but it's one step, let's not think that we're there yet. we got to take more steps. and so to those students who are faced now with multiple survivors of multiple shootings, to them i'm going to say, we got to redouble our efforts. please know that we're committed to making this happen. we got to get more folks on board, get our republican colleagues to step up and do what is the right thing instead of the politics they're playing. when that happens, hopefully our students don't have to be fearful every time they walk into a school. >> one of the things that gun safety groups have been saying, they were hoping as the nra was dealing with scandal that they would lose some of the hold.

that hasn't happened. they thought this was going to be the moment where this was going to happen. if the nra has less power and influence, that would happen. but it's a part of the republican party. it's not about hunting and all of the -- that kind of stuff right now. it's tied to you can't take what i want away from me. i want guns, that's it. >> yeah, it's this hyper -- again, this hyper individualism that has just exploded over the past 20 years. give me every right imaginable, give me no responsibilities, i don't care. i don't care what happens to my neighbor. but what i think i'm owed, that's how the nra fund raises, i must say, though, as this continues to tick up, you're seeing movement in polling and you're also seeing around election time money, a lot more money going for people who are going to support gun safety.

this is -- the nra, of course, in part because they spend money on their board members stealing money allegedly from the nra. but they're not the only game in town now. there's money that is supporting candidates who support gun safety. senator gary peters of michigan, thank you so much. we greatly appreciate it. and still ahead on morning joe, senators were briefed yesterday on three unidentified objects shot down from north america air space over last weekend. >> it was a very, very good briefing. the military intelligence agencies are working around the clock to get a more comprehensive picture of what's happening and recovering more evidence. now we still have questions. senator tester is going to lead our caucus in investigating this. >> and senator jon tester joins us next. also, the growing health

conditions in ohio this morning as residents fear for their safety after that major train derailment that spilled toxic chemicals in the environment. we'll get an update from governor mike dewine. "morning joe" will be right back. e dewine "morning joe" will be right back

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we don't know of any evidence right now that confirms that they were in fact doing intelligence collection by another government. but, again, don't have the debris. we're doing the best we can with the observations that were made by the pilots with the flight profile data that we have tried to collect. >> they're in a difficult terrain. the one off the coast of alaska, that's up in some really, really difficult terrain in the arctic circle. the second one is in the canadian rockies. very difficult to get that one. and the third one is in lake huron. we'll get them eventually, but it's going to take time to recover those. >> chairman of the joint chiefs

of staff general mark milley. before that, john kirby speaking yesterday about the three identified objects -- unidentified objects that flew in north america air space last weekend. the fear is that the objects were in the air for commercial or research purposes. because the united states has not been able to recover debris from those three sites yet, the leaders say it's too early to theory or assign blame to any country. senators were briefed yesterday. afterward, most lawmakers expressed an understanding that getting the truth about what happened last weekend will take some time. >> i went into the hearing with the impress that two weeks ago, our skies were clear. and then all of a sudden we had spy balloons and other identified objects raining down on us like confetti. that's not accurate. this has been going on for a

long, long time. >> there's a number of unanswered questions, that it's reasonable they're unanswered. we didn't build a complex and expensive radar systems to pick up slow-moving balloons. >> i wasn't unnerved by anything that i heard. i don't think we're being attacked by aliens. >> okay. thank god. jon tester of montana, he serves on the senate appropriations committee and is chairman of defense appropriations subcommittee. his state has been at the center of the recent activity, both this past weekend and early in the month when a suspected chinese spy balloon entered the country over montana. probably hovering over your farm for a little bit. senator, what in the hell is going on up there? >> that's the question for sure. >> are we getting any answers, or is the military still trying to figure this out? >> i think the military is in the recovery process as milley

said yesterday. until they get it recovered, all of them -- the first one that came through that floated through and went out of south carolina, they're well in process of getting that recovered and we'll get good information on that. the other thing are still in the process of recovery. it's going to be awhile before we know where they came from. >> you have some republicans going, saying, we need answers, joe biden must go on television and speak before a national audience and give us answers. i don't know. you guys don't have answers yet. whatever it was at 20,000 feet, we don't know what it is yet, do we? >> i think the worst thing that can happen is speculation. and if our military is speculating, which they don't do, by the way, that's a -- that's really bad. and the other thing that's really bad is especially with the first spy balloon that came over, the one that was as big as buses and things like that,

looking for information, obviously, and i think he was also looking for political reaction and, you know, our national security is always stopped at our border shores. we have never played politics with it. and for those folks who want to play politics with this, i would say we're playing with live ammo here. we shouldn't be doing that. >> what about your colleagues that sit on, like, haystacks and point ar-15s at the sky when we have a serious issue going on. at least diplomatically, we had a meeting with the secretary of state and president xi canceled because of it. >> that's correct. communication amongst powerful countries is very important because mistakes are happen. if you're not talking about a mistake when it happens, then it turns into a full-blown escalation. it's really important that communication occurs between our

countries and it's not in good shape right now, for sure. >> my impression -- actually, i've heard from sources, that we're now looking for these kinds of objects. whether we weren't before. our radar -- we were looking for icms that were coming fast across the north pole. now we're looking for balloons. as we find them, are we going to continue to shoot them down, or is there going to be a tempering of the reaction? what have you heard? >> look, i think it speaks to the issue, the issue is, we don't have a firm plan on how to deal with this stuff yet, i don't believe. at least i haven't heard one. we need to develop a plan with how to identify them, how to bring them down without using a $400,000 missile against them and i will tell you that i think the military is working hard and on top of this and i think there will be a plan. the reason susan collins and

myself are going to be working hard to find out what's going on here is because we oversee the defense budget. and we have talked several times on this issue and we both agree that the military needs to have a plan, we need to fund it and demand a plan and make sure we deal with these balloons in a more commonsense way so we can bring them down in a way that is much more cost effective. >> senator, i understand that obviously the white house is under pressure for having under reacted the first time around and not projecting strength. in a sense to our adversaries around the world, the kind of reaction that followed that projects a certain amount of chaos and overreaction to political pressures, doesn't it? >> well, like i said, i think you can't play politics with your national defense. the first balloon was a very serious matter, and the next three too, it depends on what

information we find out. to play politics, to try to elevate yourself at the expense of somebody else, the chinese are looking at that and going, wow, that was -- this is an avenue where we can make some hay. >> fly a balloon over montana and suddenly you have republicans trashing the commander in chief. pretty good win for china. >> that's correct. that's correct. and so i think -- i think it's really important that -- joe led off with this. we need to make sure we have information that's good information and then, look, release it to the public. unless there's some reason not to. the public should snow. >> you talked about the relationship with china. president biden met with president xi last year. i spoke with vice president harris yesterday and she said he's not worried that this kind of dust-up is going to really impact negatively the relationship between the two

countries. is she right? do you have concerns about how diplomatically this is going to shake out for countries that are already adversaries at some point? >> i think it's good that they have optimism for the future. i think that's important. but the fact that the chinese, opposite of secretary austin, would not take his call, and the same thing is true with general milley. i don't think it's a particularly good sign. can that change? will that change? i certainly hope it does. otherwise, we're going to have to find different avenues to communicate with the chinese. >> senator, thank you so much. good luck. good luck keeping the secrets of your farming practices secret from china, russia and all other foreign adversaries. it's great to see you. >> good to see you guys. coming up from chinese surveillance to tensions over taiwan and russia's war in ukraine, the senate armed services committee is going to receive testimony this morning on the challenges to global security. one of the witnesses today, former national security

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or, ask how to get up to a $750 prepaid card. complete connectivity. one solution, for wherever business takes you. comcast business. powering possibilities. live picture of the united states capitol. it's 7:39 in the morning. later this morning, the senate armed services committee will hold a hearing on the challenges to global security. our next guest will be one of the witnesses there. former senior director for europe and russia at the national security council, dr. fiona hill joins us now. she's a senior fellow at the brookings institution. dr. hill, thanks for your time this morning. i suspect russia and ukraine will be front and center. what do you hope to get across to the committee today? >> well, i imagine they will be. along with obviously many of the issues related to china. there's a couple of other witnesses there that are going to talk about the global picture. you know, unfortunately, the

larger message from most people like myself who are watching everything unfolding in the war in ukraine is that we're in for the long haul here. whether we have some unexpected turn of events on the ground, the biggest challenge that we're going to face is how to deal with a very aggressive russia over the long term and, of course, how we create a situation in which ukraine manages to regain as much of its territory as possible. the big challenge that we have now is the complete rupture of the european and, in fact, global security systems, all of the mechanisms that we had up until now to keep the peace have failed, and it's going to be the focus of the hearing, a big issue about how we move forward from here. and hopefully, i'll be able to lay some of these things out in the discussion. >> good morning. great to talk to you again. let's stay there on the topic of the war. you studied vladimir putin for a

long time. and what is your sense as to what his end game might be? i mean, certainly we know initially it was hopes to overthrow kyiv, knock out zelenskyy. that seems unlikely at this point. what would he be willing to settle for? is there a moment where he would finally call off his troops? are there any outlines of a deal that could be struck? >> vladimir putin has said, okay, i will negotiate if you accept the realities on the ground. now the realities on the ground are not quite yet what he's hoping for. what he wants to do, is gain the full possession of donbas provinces and that's where we see the fierce east fighting right now and all the places that are in the news. and he also wants to regain control of -- if he can, the full provinces of kherson and zaporizhzhia. these are not the focal point of fighting right now. the russian troops have

withdrawn. but remember on september 30th, putin annexed all of these territories, at least rhetorically, and said they would be russia's forever. he's demanding that we accept that new change in the geopolitical picture. now that doesn't mean, however, that everything will be over with. what vladimir putin still has in mind is those original goals. if he can't achieve them by the way he set out by that major offensive a year ago, he will find other ways in his view of doing that. in fact, that includes waiting us out in the united states and the west, and he believes that our resolve will crumble. we've got multiple battlefields here, not just on the battlefield in ukraine, but for our societies, including russia's society. so one of the big constraints that we haven't talked about, but i'm sure that we will be thinking about, is how much russia itself can keep this up and sadly at this particular juncture that looks like a lot more time. there isn't an internal

constraint yet that we can see that would pull putin back from these ultimately ambitions. >> fiona, if you look ahead to the next year, most people seem to think this is going to be a slow grind with not much movement either in favorite of russia or in favor of ukraine over the next few months. if you were to look to outside factors that might change one way or another, determinatively the course of the war, what would the factors be. >> we've seen the devastating earthquake in turkey which has thrown that region completely off kilter, literally. there's always the possibility of catastrophic events. leadership matters a great deal inside of russia. it's putin himself who wants to prosecute this war that could be dramatic changes around him, not necessarily for political reasons, but health and other reasons. we don't know. there's lots of speculation

about that. we can't counter it. but something could happen. the bigger problem or perhaps the biggest problem for putin is maintaining international support. and so if china, india and other major countries who are supportive of russia or neutral change their minds, that also could have an effect. and i think that one of the things that the united states needs to do is to really buckle down on the international diplomacy along with its other allies to try to remove away those various supports that putin has in the larger international sphere from country like china. >> just, again, internally, in russia, how many more -- tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of young men can putin afford to send into this meat grinder without facing some sort of backlash or unrest?

the that a time clock that's ticking for him? >> i think it is. and, you know, he's assuming at this particular point that all of the people who are being sent to the front are willing to be sacrificed in this way. we've seen the call up of 300,000, 500,000 more, analysts who look at the military are trying to figure out how many more people can be sent to the front. he's raised the recruitment age, the draft age, people in their 50s or 60s for some of these various positions that are not necessarily at the front itself. and we've already seen about a million people leave russia, not all men, of course, but for the best part, the men who don't want to be drafted as long -- alongside of the people who don't want to be part of this conflict at home. i think that does look like a constraint. you can't always be sure that everyone will be willing to go along with this. getting all kinds of reports here.

what's the time frame for that? we know that he's recruiting largely nonethnic russians to be sent to the front. there's discontent in some of russia's far-flung regions because of that. you're right to highlight that. the problem is, we don't know what the time scale might be and what it takes for people to protest even more than they have in terms of leaving the country. but we can't always assume that he's going to get his way. he can't either in terms of sending hundreds of thousands of people literally to be canon fodder. >> dr. fiona hill, thanks for your time this morning. let you run up to capitol hill to give your testimony. still ahead, an update from ukraine where soldiers are facing a major challenge now in holding off a russian offensive. plus, incredible survival stories continue to come out of turkey. rescue crews are still finding people alive under the rubble.

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the death toll from last week's earthquake in turkey and syria surpassed 35,000 people now, and people are still being pulled from the rubble. >> reporter: this morning, clinging to hope this 42-year-old woman carried to safety almost ten days after the deadly earthquake. searchers and survivors refusing to give up. at least nine people freed from the mountains of concrete and

twisted metal that used to make up their homes tuesday. rescue crews digging long tunnels to reach them, and many exhausted and sleeping on piles of debris. more than 200,000 homes in turkey were destroyed or so badly damaged they will have to be demolished. more than 35,000 have died in this country alone. close to the fault line, the quake's changing the landscape. this used to be a single olive grove, now separated by a deep canyon a mile and a half long. tens of thousands are homeless and hungry, and these volunteers feeding 1,000 people a day. >> no food, no water and no help. >> reporter: amid so much destruction, incredible stories of survival. and back here at home, many

are raising concerns about their safety after a major train derailment and two weeks later there's growing alarm from those that live there about their health and safety as officials there try to assure them they are safe. >> reporter: it has been 12 days since the derailment of a train, and residents worry about what is still in the air, soil and water of their rural community. >> don't tell me it's safe. something is going on if the fish are floating in the creek. >> 3,500 fish died in the local waters in the days after the derailment and insists extensive testing shows there's no threat to wildlife or humans. there is no confirmed connection to the hazardous chemicals aboard the train. >> i definitely have a right to

know what was on that train. >> still for the first time, state officials suggests residents that returned to the evacuation zone use bottled water. the governor was asked if he would return home if he lived near the crash site. >> i would be drinking the bottled water and alert and concerned but living back in my house. >> i feel about 80% race. >> and rattner and his family live half a mile from the crash site. it sounds like you are still worried? >> worried for the long term. >> ron allen reporting there. you saw the ohio governor in that piece, and we will speak to the governor just ahead on "morning joe."

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i want to take a moment to say our hearts are with the students and the families of michigan state university. it's a family's worst nightmare happening far too often in this country, far too often. while we gather more information, there's one thing we do know to be true. we have to do something to stop gun violence from ripping apart our communities, ripping apart. >> good morning and welcome to "morning joe." it's good to have you guys with us. that's president joe biden delivering a speech, and he said far too often as america processes another deadly shooting. we will have more on the victims and the suspected gunman, and the white house seems to be downplaying three unidentified flying objects that were shot down and a new explanation of what they could be.

mike pence continues to stonewall any efforts to get him to testify about january 6th. good morning. welcome to "morning joe." it's wednesday, february 15th. willie, i was thinking we could talk about one of a few things today, either "the new york times" story -- do we have "the times" here? >> yeah. >> and pitchers and catchers reporting, or the prime minister -- >> i think we have pitchers and catchers reporting today for your boston red sox. a new season. they signed a couple new hot dog venders in the offseason, which is exciting. they could really sling them as they move up and down the aisles at fenway. and it dies quickly, but there is hope today.

>> yeah, today is probably the best day of the red sox season and it's all downhill from here. an under whelming offseason for the beloved old town team. what matters is baseball is back. >> pitchers and catchers reporting. we have a baseball classic this year which is why there's an early start for players and that's always a fun tournament that will happen at the end of march. there's something about it's early season workouts, and these guys are playing an hour and a half and off to their tee times, and it's a great time of the year. >> yeah, and you are worried about what am i going to talk to other humans about when there's no sports, and here comes baseball. a big new left arm.

could be a very exciting season, though, as you know, we are all just trying to catch those astros. >> you guys with your payroll, it doesn't even count. >> did you see the deal the hot dog venders in boston got. >> we played them a lot of money, plus the 38-year-olds -- i swear to god, it's like 12 38-year-olds. it's not like we are planning for the future. catty, we could talk about baseball. >> yeah, baseball. >> she understands suddenly what most people in the eu understand, it's a good deal, and georgia maloney, who we have heard time and again, she rose from the ashes of phus leany.

do we go ahead and let her into the club or do what mccron did last week and not invade her to the meeting with other -- >> yeah, maloney did come out of the fascist political period, and there is no doubt her party was linked to fascists-linked members, and she has been moderating her budget and having good meetings with european leaders. she's like ukraine where there were fears that she would be in the pro-putin wing of europe's more extreme parties on the right and left. she has not been. >> oh, no. she embraced zelenskyy.

? >> i have friends who work in the italian ministry of culture, and some areas like immigration, gay rights, for example, abortion, cultural issues, she has allowed areas of her party to be more extreme on that. she has not tamped them down fully, but nothing like what people have expected. do we embrace her and give her an okay, you can be on the right of european politics or do we carry on shunning her. >> yeah, you want to encourage this type of behavior. >> it's a skpweug important country. >> it's the third largest economy. >> it's one thing for hungry to be hungry, but they are irrelevant. let me say that again, some are now selling out to a guy that hates western democracy, and we

can't do that with italy. italy can cause serious problems. why not encourage this type of behavior? we see what has happened in poland over the past year, year and a half, pretty dramatic changes from where they were. >> look, i think the only choice for the europeans is to take herself as she is, and if she represents herself as a reasonable person then -- >> question, was she like this all along or has she seen the light of a pragmatist? >> who knows if that was what was in her heart, but she was more pro-putin and anti-immigration, and i don't know if the word fascists is what you would use, but in that wing of politics. >> and also, the eu, i saw the impact the eu saw had on

countries with smaller gdps than when i was going after poland, and somebody interrupted me and they said, eu. i went to a rest stop, and i said it's so clean, i never knew the poles -- somebody said, the eu. the eu does have an impact on these countries. >> britain ought to think about joining -- >> yeah, good idea. everybody tuned in to figure out the nuances of italian politics. now let's go to willie with the news. >> they love the discussion of polish rest stops. >> it's huge. >> the numbers are the numbers. what are you going to do? >> why do you think i sprinkle it in? >> the numbers don't lie, joe.

nbc news learned the special investigating former donald trump's handling of classified documents is seeking to compel a lawyer. in a sign of a new aggressive legal strategy, the source says a special counsel has asked a judge to allow prosecutors to invoke the crime fraud exception which would let them side step protections afforded. and prosecutors alleged in a sealed filing they have evidence some of the former president's conversations with the attorney were in furtherance of a crime. he is believed to have asserted attorney/client privilege. the source did not say which

questions the government is trying to force corcoran to answer. and nbc news reached out to corcoran and a trump spokesperson for corcoran. and according to nbc news, if you were talking as attorney and client about committing a crime, we can get into those conversations. >> it's narrower than people think. to your point, willie, there's the suggestion that if trump and he talked about committing a

crime. a suggestion among some analyst who believe a signal that maybe he's entering the final stages of this investigation. this is not something you would do early on. it's a sign that you are doing so because sooner than later you might be bringing charges. >> joe, this is an aggressive tactic, if, in fact, this is what the special counsel, jack smith is doing. you know when donald trump is hearing the footsteps, he posted a long rant on his social media platform, where he said the gestapo came for the documents, and they are not documents, they mementoes. >> why would the gestapo take that? there are ominous signals coming, and people are concerned about witnesses lying and that

getting out with all the other information getting out. here, i don't know what stages of the investigation, but when they start calling your lawyer and try to pierce attorney/client privilege, let's say that's never good news for the potential defendant. >> yes, i would caveat saying we have had conversations about the walls closinging in on trump many times before. >> only about 8,000 times over six years. >> the walls must be really tight. the big vulnerability, it seems to me, is ultimately going to be on the obstruction issue with respect to the documents. that seems more clear-cut than anything prior to them, because it's so simple, right. we needed these documents from you and you defied our request, and now we believe your lawyers misled if not out right lied about the documents in your position.

when your lawyers need to get lawyers, that's generally not good. >> that's the case with most of trump's lawyers. >> basically. in this case, there's obviously multiprong elements here, we have the subpoena for pence that he's going to defy. in this case, though, this one seems where jack smith has a clear lane that he's going down, and it's very difficult to understand what the actual response is from the trump team to the charge that you obstructed this investigation. >> there really doesn't seem to be a good defense, when your lawyers are signing documents swearing you returned all the documents. >> he will come up with something, like, in my mind, i declassified everything. >> but the quality of the lawyers has been extremely poor. he picks people off of television, and who wants somebody off television representing them, and he doesn't pay them well.

one lawyer after the other comes in the picture and goes out. >> we counted up probably 20 to two dozen lawyers representing trump, and they all have lawyers. what is interesting, you can't tell from this whether the prosecutor where jack smith thinks that evan corcoran drafted, and then a lot more turns up. >> the idea of piercing the attorney/client privilege is saying it's going to be you or your client, right? >> right. your client is blaming you, so tell us, who is going to jail? are you going to jail or is your

client going to jail? >> you can tell the smart ones from the dumb ones, because the smart ones demand to be paid up trump. >> if your client says he turns over everything, and then you sign a document, who is liable there? given trump's history, wouldn't you think that any lawyer is not just going to take the former president's word for this. they are actually going to want to see and go through the evidence themselves. it seems a little unbelievable that corcoran would -- >> you get lawyers off the television that only want the attention. they are not going to do the due diligence. >> and we were talking about biden and the classified

documents, and he was cooperating with federal investigators and that will be used as a contrast to what corcoran, trump and others did in mar-a-lago. >> i will say in the beginning that biden having the documents and doing it the right way, and pence having documents and doing it the right way, and it was not a mitigating factor for trump -- >> it was aggravating. >> it gives us three very clear approaches to this. you can immediately contact the archives. you can do what pence did which was immediately let people search the house, or you can do what trump did, lie and have your lawyer signs documents that are not right, and the easiest to prove is the obstruction. >> sam is right. i still question how much these

distinctions are going to matter if trump is indicted and nothing happens where joe biden. i can imagine what the republican party will say. >> of course. >> it doesn't really matter. it doesn't really matter. people are talking about politics. i just think that at some point republicans are going to say we really wish we had just given merrick garden the seat because at the end of the day, i think he's the guy that goes by the book so much he's not going to sit there and think what are they going to be thinking about me on the hill? despite all the nasty things progressives say about him on twitter, he's just interested in justice, and he will not give a damn about what republicans are saying about him on twitter. >> he's not deepy offended that justice is justice and you just

do the right thing. i agree. that's the way he goes, if he thinks he has a case that he should and must prosecute, and that he can win -- >> the question is, is there anybody remotely open who is being persuaded on this, and republicans will say trump is a victim, and i don't know if there are four people in the whole country that could be persuaded -- >> it's in the context of a republican -- well, this man presents a huge number of liabilities for us if he becomes the nominee, and if that's persuasive, i don't know, but it's not something you want hanging over you. >> it's not going to help.

you look at the polls and when people think trump did something wrong, should he be charged, and most say he should. we will talk about nikki haley's announcement and go to live to iowa and south carolina to look at who else might be jumping into the race. "morning joe" is back in a moment. (banging) child: (crying) let me out! please! (hitting) (crying) child: i want my mom! (coughing) we believe our military heroes deserve a company who will fight for them

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some people look at america and see vulnerability. china and russia are on the march. they all think we can be bullied, kicked around. you should know this about me. i don't put up with bullies, and when you kick back, it hurts them more if you are wearing heels. i am nikki haley and i am running for president. >> nikki haley is the first of

what is likely to be a number of former trump administration officials to announce a presidential run. the former south carolina governor made her candidacy official yesterday with a video announcement. she is expected to travel to new hampshire for town hall events, and then to iowa. trump responding without attacking haley. i told her she should follow her wishes is what she wants to do. i wish her luck. mike pence will visit minnesota and iowa today, and former secretary of state, mike pompeo says, he'll decide if he will run in the next handful of months, and his team has reached out to staffers in early primary

states. and mitch mcconnell was asked about haley's announcement. here's what mcconnell had to say. >> what i think we are going to have is a vigorous primary, with a number of candidates making their case and the american people, those who are registered republicans who are going to participate in the primaries are going to decide who they want to nominate. i think it's going to be very, very competitive in these primaries and will hope for the best. i will support whoever the nominee is. >> people claim they don't like donald trump say they will support him if he becomes the nominee, and also interesting to note how trump handles different opponents, and nikki haley followed her heart, and desantis

is a groomer. >> we have been talking about this, trump's core base is probably not going to go anywhere and they are going to follow him, and the bigger the field the better it is for him. he and haley have had a good relationship, and she has flip-flopped a lot as to whether or not trump did the wrong thing on january 6th, whether or not she would run. she said she wouldn't if trump was in and she changed her mind. i suspect trump will have warm words for others in his administration who might also want to run, and john bolton, his national security adviser are also considering candidacies. we will see how feasible those really are. and on nikki haley, she wanted to get in ahead of tim scott, another senator from south carolina, her home state, and she thought she needed to jump

in first to wart off that potential challenge. she's polling low, but this gives her a chance to have the stage to herself for a few days, and we are seeing other big fish, and one is ron desantis. >> and ron desantis asked about the announcement of nikki haley jumping in, and he laughed it off. do you see some of the starters and potential candidates running against trump as a real threat to donald trump in this primary? >> willie, you know cesars calls you and me when they want to set the lines for these political elections. you will remember, weekends out we put the over/under for mccron at 58.5%.

and it was 58.5%. i am ready to do the over/under for every candidate we just mentioned. >> hold on. >> nikki haley. the over/under, 2.5%. john bolton, .5%. mike pompeo. 1.25%. mike pence, 5% over/under. tim scott, 4.5%. >> who else? >> larry hogan, kris sununu. >> well, kemp, zero, and larry hogan, god bless him, and love what he has done. god bless him in the primary. sorry. that's pretty much it. sununu is an interesting one.

i am not willing to keep him in low single digits, maybe put him at 7.5%. i still think it's donald trump's fill. anybody you put onstage, maybe with the exception, and i will say this, with the exception of chris sununu, i think he could kind of punch him back. >> maybe he can, you know. we have to see how some of the candidates will perform on a national stage and how they play in the rest of the country, including ron desantis, by the way. i know he does well in the polls now, but when he gets out there, he will be, i think, the most humorless bombastic major candidate for president in a long time. >> i think that will end very badly. i think it's one of these things

where you get him outside of tallahassee -- remember, marco rubio. i didn't do an over/under on him. i think it will start about the chinese balloon over montana, and -- >> end the same. >> by the time he gets to south carolina, he's crashed in the water. >> yeah, i think desantis won't be able to withstand the trump attacks, and he's too defensive and thin skinned on the debate stage and trump will walk all over him. they seem confident he will go the way as all the others in 2016. >> his stick is always call a press conference, ban library books, or attack transathletes

and then yell at a female reporter. a woman will ask a question and he will yell at her, and then he walks out and people say, he's great. >> he's a very different candidate about donald trump. say what you will about donald trump, he was entertaining to the american people. he was a show. he was an entertainer. and ron desantis is not -- he does not show any evidence of that. you know, he's done very well just by doing nothing, just staying in florida and, you know, he's like the big challenger to trump. he has not gone out there at all. >> yeah, it's safe when you are in tallahassee. i am serious, you are standing behind your podium at very staged events. charlie crist asked him a basic president, are you running for president, and he looked lost,

like a sheep. the only time i looked donald trump that confuse san diego when somebody put a big mac in a bucket of kentucky fried chicken in front of him. >> did he look that confused? trump, that is. to me he's such an appetite among republicans for somebody other than trump. i don't -- >> we did a poll and looked at the preference of gop voters. what you can see is -- >> shocking. >> -- are shocking numbers here, but important once, nonetheless. they want somebody conservative, and somebody under 70. >> that's the takeaway line. what do you think about that? >> i thought the number intriguing of these numbers is the political outsider, and you

say i want somebody not part of the system and i don't like the governing body even in my own body, and in this case it's not that important to them. two things come to mind. trump is not an outsider, and two, i don't think desantis is an outsider either. he's not of washington but came up through congress and is a governor. there's an appetite for somebody with actual experience and not an outsider. they want somebody younger. coming up, the latest on the war in ukraine as that country prepares for a new russian offensive and new questions about whether belarus might join the conflict. we went to safelite.com. there's no one else we'd trust. their experts replaced our windshield,

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russia has begun its new offensive in eastern ukraine and ukrainian officials are juaning the country's fighters are getting low on ammunition.

nbc correspondent, richard engel, has details. >> reporter: tanks on the front lines are running out of ammunition. they can only shoot now when they can see their enemy. we use as little ammunition as we can, but still it's disappearing says a commander code named saint. we can only hold them off, he says, but nobody knows how long we can keep doing it. their equipment is just too old. >> reporter: let's see if we can get it in now. this tank like most ukrainian tanks are 50 years old, and spare parts are a problem, and ammunition is a problem, because they are not making ammunition for these tanks anymore, and they are using stockpiles they already had and it's running

out. russia has huge reserves, but here in ukraine, tracker mechanics are keeping the old machines running until help arrives. it's not just tank rounds. nato is warning ukraine is using so much ammunition of all types of western allies cannot provide it fast enough with new orders take up to two years to deliver. >> richard engel reporting from ukraine there. joining us now, keir simmons on the belarus side. >> reporter: the ukrainian border is a little way that way, and i will show you that in a moment. effectively we are on the russian side, if you like, of the frontline with ukraine, in

belarus, and lukashenko probably owes his position to president putin here in belarus. this is part of the world where belarusian observers say russian troops have been training and where russian equipment is based, and of course, where that initial offensive back in february was launched from here in belarus. you can see this is the bella russian border control. the whole border is closed. take you back around this way, willie, and just walk with me a little bit in this direction. the ukrainian border is about less than half a mile down along this road in that direction, so

it doesn't feel tense but it's a tense border, of course. albeit we are along the western side, the ukrainian city of lviv is about 100 miles over there, so the action, if you like, is expected in the east. russia is in that direction, and, of course, willie, the big question right now, and richard engel has been reporting that a new russian offensive is under way, and the question is when that offensive gets under way in earnest, that it happens from the east or whether again belarus will be part of that. one of the important things about being here, of course, is trying to see whether there is any sign of that. we have not seen any sign of that, and the bell arussians are showing us around, and it could be that some of that is about trying to persuade the

ukrainians that there will be an offensive from here to dilute their forces, if you like, make it harder for them to mount a defense. this is -- we're very close to ukraine, and it's literally just there. we are on the belarussian side. they are putting on a press tour of all this, the russians, and the question is if they will enter the conflict with the russians. my judgment would be that it's going to be unlikely, that president lukashenko will think it would be too disruptive to his own position inside belarus to do that, but he is supporting the russians. in terms of what we have seen here, doesn't seem like something that will happen. >> seems like a provocative step

to directly join the fighting on that side. keir, thank you so much for bringing that to us. we appreciate it. joe, as the anniversary of the russian invasion comes up next week, the white house, we are told, is preparing massive aid packages to ukraine, to keep the government running and much more military aid, which richard engel showed us is desperately needed not just from the u.s., but from europe as well, jumping in to get it into the hands of ukrainian fighters. >> even if republicans were to do the politically idiotic thing and cut off zelenskyy and the freedom fighters in ukraine, biden's got things lined up to keep them going for quite sometime. >> yeah, kevin mccarthy said before the speaker fight that he was no longer going to be a blank check for ukraine, and

there were concerns in kyiv and here in washington in the white house that they would have to wrestle to get money out of the hill and it wouldn't come as it has done over the course of the last year. i have heard they primed the pump enough for a supply of weapons to ukraine that would last through this year, at least. this sort of timeframe that i am hearing people in washington are looking at is by november of 2024, because they assume whoever runs against president biden will run as the anti-war candidate saying we can't continue supporting ukraine. for the ukrainians, if they can try and get as far as they are going to get by 2024, that's the realistic time. this-year was held as the very important year, but nobody seems to think that at this stage of it, this spring, a major decisive win either by the russians or ukrainians. we are looking at a long grind over the course of the year which is nato will have to carry on with the meetings saying who

will supply what. coming up, mike dewine joining us talking about the train derailment in his state two weeks ago and his call for congress to take action now. "morning joe" is coming right back.

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we have new research that is a punch in the gut for women. it shows that instead of being viewed as talented, women are often considered to be lucky to have high-paying successful jobs. of course that bias, or whatever it is, can translate into fewer opportunities for women in addition to unequal pay and fewer promotions. here to explain it all, maggi mcgrath, editor, and also

joining us, uma aub dean. this will have an impact on growth and industry for women. >> it does. you were correct in calling it a bias. it's a cognitive bias. the researchers at the london school of economics looked at 50 years of data, and i want to call it out. it's not a one-time study or now nom non. since 1970, they looked at the research and they looked at when we have success it's more to be looked at like luck. we are taking agency away and devaluing that work, when you devalue women's work you are more likely to exacerbate gender discrimination and pay gaps in the workplace.

>> i am under the assumption everybody in the research was a man, and i wonder if i was wrong and if it was women outlooks included the in the research. secondly, what happens when women make mistakes? are they looked at differently than men? >> researchers looked at men and women and probably a few binary, although they would say that's a smaller representation. i am more likely to say i was lucky, i was lucky to meet you and be here, right? we have to work on how we talk about it. when we look at mistakes at work, the study, this was wild but not surprising if you look at the look at the data. when men make a mistake at work they are more likely to be seen at unlucky and when women make a mistake at work that's a judgement of their skill. they're lucky to have the job, but when they make a mistake,

oh, they're not skilled. that's their fault. >> you know, it's so funny, i ask women when i go out and speak for know your value, i need you to say i am supposed to be here. you're lucky to have me. i am great and they have a really hard time saying it. they have to practice which could add to the problem here. maggie, have experts made recommendations on, by the way, for men and women on how we can reduce luck versus this ability bias at work. >> yes, we should all be recognizing that it is not mutually exclusive and the more men we hear say hey, that was lucky. that helps women. that's something we can all do on our own on our own time. for researchers recommend employing assessment, you can evaluate that answer rather than taking a candidate's view of herself and potentially

incorporating that bias into your hiring decision that can, in turn, increase the pipeline of women in male-dominated roles and the more often we see women in traditionally male-dominated roles it's an equalizer and it eliminates the biasses we've been talking about. we've been talking about the many challenges women face at work in the 30/50 summit in abu dhabi. we'll be bringing together women from the forbes 30 under 30 and 50 under 50 communities and all over the world, leaders in politics, finance, social entrepreneurship and beyond and we have an incredible speaker lineup, hillary clinton, gloria stein amam, katherine o'hara, malala, aia curry, misty copeland and huma, we have two new speaker announcements this morning. give us the big reveal.

>> well, mika, we have quite the power pair joining us, jessica alba and kelly sawyer patricof will be joining us in abu dhabi whil also doing good. she runs a not for profit organization called babe toe baby which provides essentials to children in need across the country. you know, the statistic in this country that one out of three families struggle to pay for diapers is what launched them on their journey and over a decade ago it was kelly, nora and an intern at a tiny warehouse in l.a. distributing diapers to families in need and they have built it into a national organization that has since provided over 175 million diapers and other essentials to more than a million children in 100 cities across the country and they've used their network and their lat form to force change. they lobbied the state of california to eliminate the

sales tax on diapers and they were successful in those efforts and they used their high-profile and celebrity friends and supporters to amplify and mobilize them in times of need and jessica, who all of us know is a successful and has been successful since the age of 13 in both television shows and in movies, she's also a very successful business woman. she is the founder of the honest company. it's a wellness brand, and she tells the story doing laundry for her baby in 2008 and getting a rash from the laundry detergent and as she looked for safe, natural products to use in her own household she struggled to find a brand to do that, and so she did what a lot of entrepreneurial, smart women do was she did it on her own. these two women to have them on stage in abu dhabi to talk about how you can both do well and also do good and to help humanitarian and social needs

and so can't wait to have this pair of women in abu dhabi. >> i lack forward to welcoming jessica and kelly to 30/50. thank you very much. for more on the 30/50 summit head over to forbes.com or know your value.com. we would love to see you there. the 30/50 list just gets better and better. stay tuned for more big announcements coming very soon and check out the lineup at know the speakers.com, a big announcement coming up. emmy award-winning actor, billy crudup, and i promise to not ask questions about "almost famous." maybe not. we'll be right back. famous." maybe not. we'll be right back.

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♪♪ ♪ coming up at the top of the hour, almost 6:00 a.m. as the sun comes up over los angeles. about 9:00 in the morning here in new york city. welcome to the fourth hour of "morning joe." katty kay and jonathan lemire are still with us for the hour and a lot to get to including the latest in the investigation at michigan state university as we learn about the three students who died there. also ahead, questions continue to swirl over that massive train derailment in ohio. residents fear returning to their homes because of the toxic chemicals that spilled out almost two weeks ago for being

deliberately set on fire. mike dewine about safety concerns in just a moment. later this hour, he won an emmy for his role in "the morning show," now billy crudup is back this time as a traveling salesman in the future. he joins us just ahead. we begin with the 2020 presidential field. nikki haley will hold her first event as an official candidate. hallie jackson has the latest. >> i'm nikki haley and i'm running for president. >> 2024 taking shape this morning with nikki haley jumping into the republican race. >> it's time for a new generation of leadership. >> coming from the 51-year-old, that argument is a swipe at both current president joe biden who is 80 and former president donald trump who is 76. after serving as governor of south carolina, haley joined the trump administration. her former boss you in her

current competition as she signals she's not backing down from any kind of fight. >> i don't put up with bullies and when you kick back it hurts them more if you're wearing heels. >> haley pushed for mr. trump's re-election in 2020. >> donald trump has always put america first. >> but she's walked the line between support and distance like after january 6th, suggesting we shouldn't have listened to him, though she ultimately opposed his impeachment. >> i mean, at some point, i mean, give the man a break. >> haley said in 2021 she wouldn't run if president trump ran adding i would talk about it, and referencing the comment in a new statement wishing her luck. craig and sheinelle asking haley about the 2024 race. >> i'm thrilled about the accomplishments we made together and we had a great working relationship, but we'll see what he does. >> haley's the first former

opponent, but she won't be his last. with ron desantis widely expected to jump inially this he's dodging his plans. >> nicki haley announced her presidential run would you plan on following suit? wouldn't you like to know? >> mike pence laying the groundwork for his own potential run. >> sources familiar with his thinking suggest any formal announcement probably wouldn't come for several months and south carolina senator tim scott set to hold events in his home state and in iowa over the next week. >> hallie jackson reporting there, let's bring in senior writer for the dispatch. david drucker, he is in charleston where nikki haley is announcing her presidential run. >> also vaughn hilliard live from cedar rapids iowa where mike pence is expected to hold a rally today and political reporter for axios, alexy mccannon along for the conversation. david, let me start with you in south carolina where nikki haley

will make it official and hold her first event as a presidential candidate and where she fits and how does she handle the donald trump question. she was for him, then she was against him, then she was for him and then she was against him. >> she'll have to stake out her position on donald trump, the issues and why she wants to be president. i think if she can do that, she gives herself a chance to be relevant and probably the only woman in the race on the republican side. she is not liked and that's not something that we see that often at least on the republican side, and so i think for nikki haley it's answering the flip-flopping question in relation to trump and in relation to some issues while just being very plain and authentic about what she's doing and why she's doing it and where she stands. she tends to like this sort of

bob and weave and issue what i like to say are a "bless your heart" swipes at her opponent and those can work at times. she'll have a chance to be competitive and have a chance to win because they want to see a fighter and the way you fight is by going after the front-runner and a lot of republicans have been hesitant to go against donald trump who is the front-runner for now. let's see if she's willing to do it. >> that's the bob and weave that all of these candidates will have to pull off. part of her argument is implicit. she's a generation younger than donald trump and she represents a fresh face in her words anyway in the republican party, but how does she handle the donald trump questions? as you say, if you want to win the primary, you need a bunch of his voters to do that. so they don't go with the full frontal attacks on donald trump, but how will she go at him over the course of this campaign. >> right, look. i think that would be a mistake and the reason those voters are trump voters because he goes after everybody and no holds

barred, and what we're seeing from him initially as you mentioned, mentioning that it's time for a new generation, mentioning that the republican party has lost the last seven out of eight national popular votes for president and it's not a good look, and so her argument is essentially if you want to win and therefore govern conservatively, we need to be something new, we need to be something fresh. i think she's going to lean into her criticism of trump and other republicans as time goes on. i think the key for her is to answer the question about authenticity. in years past and decades past voters understood you had to be one thing with one audience and another thing with another audience and it is not something they have patience for anymore. she will have to dispel questions about her authenticity and if she can do that, she's been a draw on the fund-raising circuit for the past two years despite some of her issues and she's got a lot of innate, political skill and charisma on the stump that you can't teach

and if she can handle her challenges she can put that to good use. >> vaughn, another person that will have to navigate donald trump is pence who served with him up until january 6th. pence has not declared his candidacy yet, but it's widely rumored and tell us about pence and also this news that pence is planning to defy a subpoena issued by the special council, jack smith, the january 6th probe arguing that he was technically part of the senate that day and we can get into the legalities of it or not. the point being he's still suggesting he doesn't want to go all in in terms of turning on trump. >> right. this is the hard part for the former vice president. he's now 756 days away from leaving washington, d.c., and his partnership with donald trump. yet here comes the subpoena from the special council here and yet

he intends to fight it in the court. the challenge for him is that he is looking to fight the subpoena on the grounds of the speech of the bay clause which outlines that individuals, members of congress are protected yet when he's arguing that he on january 6th was playing the role as president of the senate it runs counter to the argument that he was making ahead of discussion around the january 6th committee on capitol hill subpoena hanging over him because at the time he was arguing as a member of the executive branch. he was protected from executive privilege from his conversations with donald trump from testifying. so ultimately, this battle would play out in the court system and you said it. he's not an official candidate, but he's doing the candidate things and here in iowa today, 756 days after leaving washington, d.c., heel be at this pizza ranch in cedar rapids where they're serving beer with the country's best chicken and they'll be serving up some mike

pence this afternoon and he's holding an event specifically targeting a very much of a right-wing culture issue here and that is trans gender-affirming care and there is a court in minnesota that will be hearing a case based out of cedar rapids, a school district here which last year provided a gender-affirming plan for students if they so chose to seek one. that would allow individuals, children seventh grade and up to go by the pronouns and the gender that they identify with without having to tell their parents if they don't choose to. students and faculty would have to identify the students by their gender. and mike pence is here to support that lawsuit saying that it is an issue of parental rights and the freedom of other students to address students by the gender in which they were

born. you would be making the stop first where the federal district court before coming here to cedar rapids to address folks here in iowa on the same day of the nikki haleys and south carolina? it will be interesting to see mike pence and ron desantis if he jumps spot race. i don't know what you thought of the video. we were having a discussion earlier on "morning joe" in one of the breaks about the heels moment and i found it slightly cringy and awkward, but some people seem to have liked it. how does she navigate the whole trump, and the litmus test in the republican party is there a case for someone to come down on both sides of trump in the world of the republican politics at the moment? >> yeah. as was mentioned she'll have to

navigate the way she's talked about trump in the past compared to how she's doing now. the fact of the matter, though, when she was last asked by craig and others on the "today" show, that was in october and republicans saw in november a couple of weeks later that donald trump is killing their party's chances at taking power back not just in washington, but across the country as governors and legislators and secretaries of state and so for a lot of republicans and nikki haley included they're watching facts and watching things like abortion continue to be an issue while male republicans struggle to talk about the issue and there's a lane and i've even heard this from democrats as early as yesterday. for a republican woman to try to own that space as being a woman, but being an authoritative voice as a republican woman on things like foreign policy, gender, the thing for parents and children which republicans are talking about this parents' bills of rights which is making decisions for parents and she's trying to come at it from a more

traditional way than we have seen in the past. certainly donald trump will throw a wrench in those plans and the fascinating thing that unlike ron desantis, he's not giving her a nickname. he's telling her, i wish you luck. that could change, but that tells that he's either not afraid of her politically and he doesn't want to unleash on her because she's a woman and he's known for attacking woman. >> and it might split the vote and give him the nomination. vaughn hilliard, and david drucker reporting from charleston south carolina where nikki haley will hold that rally. thank you both. we appreciate it. this morning we are learning more about the three young michigan state students killed in monday night's shooting. investigators are still working to determine the suspected gunman's motive. nbc news correspondent jesse kirsch is in east lansing with the latest. >> this morning another u.s. college town grieving after the

nation's latest mass shooting. michigan state university announcing sophomore brian fraser, junior arielle anderson and varner were all killed when a gunman opened fire monday night. >> we would like to honor her. verner honored in her hometown in michigan. her former high school principal describing her as an exemplary young person. >> you try to surround yourself with people who make you feel good as a human being and that's what al did for everyone. >> the aspiring surgeon was passionate about helping her friends and family assisting children and serving people. fraser was president of msuphi delta chapter. >> i think we're all numb to this situation. we have lived this our entire lives. >> five other students remain hospitalized. this surveillance video shared by nbc news appears to show the

suspected shooter anthony mcrae. mcrae's father telling nbc news his son became reclusive, evil and mean after his mother died two years ago, but still no official motive. more than 600 miles away, after mcrae shot and killed himself authorities found a note in his pocket that indicated a threat to that community prompting schools there to shut down tuesday although no threat was found. back at michigan state, the latest gun violence to stun country prompting parents to pick up their children from school. >> the minute we saw her we just hugged and held each other. there are parents that can't do that today because of the senseless stuff that goes on. >> jesse kirsch reporting from east lansing, michigan today. we are talking about this idea that our kids have gone through

shootings and emma riddle from oxford michigan, she survived the shooting at that high school 15 months ago and you also have a senior named jackie matthews who was 11 years old inside sandy hook elementary school that survived that shooting and this is a generation that's gone through multiple school shootings in these awful, awful days. >> it's hard to fathom. both of our kids have to go through these trainings, these school shooter drills to be ready because there seems to be this sort of sad reality. this almost admission of failure that these things cannot really be stopped, that there will be shootings like this whether it's in a workplace and at school and there seems to be little appetite to change it. there was modest gun reform and legislation passed on the federal level last year. there was no sense of any possibility that that could happen this year. the president has repeatedly called for an assault weapons ban. republicans aren't touching

that. there is hope that michigan controlled by democrats at every level that they may pass tougher laws on the state level and that's where we are right now. it will have peace meals on the state level and very little chance of something big coming from washington and it will only be a matter of time. >> we have senator gary peters in michigan earlier in the show, a michigan state alumnus saying all we can do is we pledge to the kids that we'll keep fighting and we need partners in the effort. speaking of the senate, after 30 years representing dianne feinstein saying she will retire at the end of her term. in addition, feinstein said she will use the remainder of her term working to accomplish as much for california as i can. her decision was anticipated. she is 89 years old, the oldest sitting senator, but when asked about her announcement from reporters the senator appeared not to know her office had already released a statement. >> well, i haven't made that decision.

i haven't released anything. it will be my -- you put out the statement? >> i didn't know they put it out. so -- it is what it is. i think the time has come. i have a whole other year. i have things that are underway. i expect to achieve them -- i hope, and so we'll see. >> you'll remember potential successors to feinstein did not wait for her decision to announce bids for the seat. congressman adam schiff and katie porter announced their campaigns last month. barbara lee also planning to kick off her bid for the seat. we are told by the end of the month that's according to a source familiar. feinstein told reporters yesterday she had not made a choice on whom to endorse, however. speaker emeritus nancy pelosi saying if feinstein decided not to run she will support adam schiff and she will do that with

feinstein's announcement. alexei mccannon it will be a field filling feinstein's seat all with credentials in california. how will this play out and separate themselves from each other? >> while the 2024 senate map is terrible for democrats across the board this is almost a guaranteed win for progressives and not just by the field and as it's shaping up and progressives and even the california democratic party have been trying to get rid of feinstein for years, really, in earnest since 2018 when the democratic party in california voted against endorsing her that year for the nominee for that party. we'll see these folks take different lanes and representative porter bills herself as someone who fights for workers and middle class families and adam schiff has become this tv critic, this anti-trump tv critic leading the country through these

impeachment hearings and establishing himself as a check on those maga forces and congresswoman lee previously considered to be a potential pick for biden's vp, a black woman who many people i talk to talk about the importance of electing another black woman in the race of course, because of vice president harris taking her role now, but there are a number of factors that play out and the last thing we'll be looking for is pelosi and how her influence shapes the race and whether that affects donors especially in california. >> there's a long road ahead to election in 2024. >> we got in breaking economic news a minute ago. retail sales jumped by 3% in january, smashing expectations and signaling consumer demand remains resilient despite concerns over inflation. expert his anticipated a rise of just 1.9%. some good news there. coming up on "morning joe" 12 days ago a train carrying toxic chemicals went off the tracks

setting off an environmental disaster in a small ohio town. people still living there wonder if it is safe for them to go back to their homes and we'll ask mike dewine about that and other concerns next. e about thad other concerns next. i brought in ensure max protein with 30 grams of protein. those who tried me felt more energy in just two weeks. uhhhh... here, i'll take that. [woo hoo!] ensure max protein, with 30 grams of protein, one gram of sugar and nutrients for immune health. i've never been healthier. shingles doesn't care. with 30 grams of protein, but shingrix protects. proven over 90% effective,

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answers this morning and asking about safety and that of their families about a train derailment two weeks ago. the train was carrying toxic chemicals when it derail in the town of east palestine causing a massive fire. officials performed a controlled release of the toxic materials and residents were allowed to return home last week. one person telling the columbus dispatch the smoke and odor immediately burnt the inside of my lungs. the stench was like standing over a pit that's on fire. they're concerned and understandably about air, soil and water pollution. wildlife officials say the results chemical spill has

killed an estimated 3500 fish. her five hens and rooster died suddenly the day after the controlled chemical release. "the pittsburgh post gazette" quoted a woman who feared for her family's health. i don't want to take my kids back to that. we're not going to have a choice, but to take our children back to that place and it's not fair. end quote. residents feel there's been a lack transparency, and one local business owner told the columbus dispatch, quote, we want to get back to normal. we want to get back to our homes and we want to be safe and have accountability going forward. there will be a town hall today where people are expected to reiterate those concerns and in the meantime, residents have been told to use bottled water until officials contest the bottle supply. the ep attested the air inside 400 homes and found contaminants

are not at levels of concern. the governor of ohio, mike dewine joins us now. governor, thanks for your time in the middle of this crisis. >> thank you. >> are you confident that it's safe for the communities of east palestine and communities to move home? >> yes. we continue to test the air and we continue to test the water and we've done that really since the beginning and before we told them they could go back, you know, we had readings that indicated the air was just pretty much what it was before it was what it was before the train wreck even occurred. as far as the water, we continue to test the water at different stages as it goes out towards the ohio river. we've told the residents, most people are on the village system, those are deep wells. we think that they're very safe, but until we get the tests back we've told them out of an abundance of caution they ought

to just drink bottled water, and you know, we've got our first test back from one of the wells last night and the test was fine. we would expect today or tomorrow to get the other well test back and as soon as we get those back we'll make that available to the public. >> so if it were your family, governor, you'd be okay sending everybody back home? >> yeah, look, we indicated that. we will continue to test the air. we will continue to test the water, but what that is indicating is it is very, very safe. we'll relying on the experts and the u.s. epa has been in and ohio epa has been in and the health department and they've been there from the beginning and we've been as transparent as we can and we tell people what we know yesterday. i did over an hour press conference and that was the third press conference i've done myself and we've done other press conferences where we've

put that information out, and what i committed to people yesterday to do is, look, we'll hold the railroad responsible. and the railroad caused this and i called the ceo yesterday and i talked to him a number of times and said look, there are people in palestine concerned you guys are going to leave before you get the total area cleaned up and he assured me and no, we're not going to leave and we'll hold him to that and we're not going to leave until everything is right and they're in the process now of removing dirt from the scene where the rail cars went off. you've got a lot of toxic material there. they've removed a be in of truckloads of -- of dirt, but that process continues today and it will continue until it's done. >> you can understand, governor, when residents are hearing of reports of thousands of fish floating dead and livestock dropping dead why they might be concerned and is there any

thought for help of those people if they do want to stay in a hotel until the coast is clear. they just don't have the resources to go find somewhere else to stay. >> the railroad has said they will pay for anyone to stay in hotels and they've been doing that if and anyone has concerns they can continue to do that. again, the railroad is responsible for all of this, and as i said, we will hold them to that, but those are certainly options for people. look, i understand, you know, if i had a family there i understand people are concerned. what we're trying to do and have done to do from the beginning is to make sure that we give them all of the information that we have. we have the best scientists to really just continue to test and that's what we will continue to do. >> governor, in your news conference yesterday you said you had spoken to president biden a few days earlier and the president offered federal assistance and don't hesitate to call and he said yesterday that

you have not done so. you don't feel there is a need. if we were seeing a problem or anything like that you would call, but you're not seeing it. explain the rationale there. why not get the federal government more involved in what is a significant site. >> no, that's not what i said. what i said yesterday is i told the president that the federal government was involved and we'd use the defense department to model our national guard with working directly with the defense department to model when they controlled emission was going to take place and how far out that was going to do, and the u.s. epa has been on the scene from the very beginning and the transportation people are in there working to determine exactly the cause of this threat. so, no, i said the president, if i need additional help we'll tell you, but the people who have been in here from the federal government have done a very good job. >> on that, the idea of -- it's

obviously in the early days of this crisis, but sometimes potential health effects are not found or located, discovered and they don't materialize for weeks, months or years later. is there early planning to set up some sort of process to monitor the long term impact of this disaster on the town and the people who live there? >> yeah. sure. look, we'll do everything that we can and we'll continue to monitor the water supply. we will continue to monitor the air as we move forward. >> all right, governor. we appreciate your time very much this morning. i know it's difficult, and we'll be checking back in with you and keeping an eye on the people of east palestine. governor mike dewine of ohio. >> still ahead, a mayor with quite a life story. wilmott fled and now he is the

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♪ ...i'm over 45. ♪ only pay for what you need. ♪ i realize i'm no spring chicken. ♪ ♪ i know what's right for me. ♪ ♪ i've got a plan to which i'm sticking. ♪ ♪ my doc wrote me the script. ♪ ♪ box came by mail. ♪ ♪ showed up on friday. ♪ ♪ i screened with cologuard and did it my way! ♪ cologuard is a one-of-a kind way to screen for colon cancer that's effective and non-invasive. it's for people 45 plus at average risk, not high risk. false positive and negative results may occur. ask your provider for cologuard. ♪ (group) i did it my way! ♪ "morning joe" over the past 15 years, but none with a story quite like this one mp wilmot collins was a senior in high school in liberia in 1980 when a faction of armed militants entered the executive mansion in the nation's capital and killed

the country's president. that coup in the new era of military rule that followed shaped his thinking about how political systems work. collins fled the civil war in his native liberia for the united states making a home in montana. after years of serving in the army national guard he ran for mayor of helena in 2017 and defeated a four-term incumbent becoming the first black mayor of any city in montana since the state joined the union. he now is serving his second term in office which he won overwhelmingly. mayor wilmot collins joins us now. mr. mayor, it is so great to have you on the show and so much to talk to you about and i first want to start with your personal story. we sketched it out in broad terms there, and what gave you the courage to leave home and come to america and how did you end up in montana? >> well, thanks for having me, willie. the war in liberia was terrible,

and to survive we decided that we had to -- because we had lost -- i had lost two brothers already, and i didn't want to be the third one, and so my fiance and myself at the time decided to flee the country. we fled on a nigerian vessel into ghana and there we contacted her host family. now mind you, my wife was an exchange student and she lived in montana as an exchange student, and after she graduated high school she went to liberia and that's when we met. so when we fled liberia she contacted her host family she had lived with in montana and they were more than willing to bring us over to help us, but that wasn't easy. >> no, i can't imagine it was easy. that's what i was going to ask you, mr. mayor.

what was the plan. you got out of liberia and that was a feat on to itself and you've landed in a completely foreign land for you, anyway, in the united states in montana. what was the plan and how did you begin to make a life for yourself here? >> we didn't have a plan when we were fleeing. the only plan was we were going to go to english-speaking country and we realized ghana was an english-speaking country and so we landed in ghana and when everything had cleared for us to come to montana i didn't know what to expect. as a matter of fact, when our host parents were telling me about the weather i told them they were crazy. nobody lived in a refrigerator because back home the average temperature is 85, so i had lived here for a while and i was retired from the military when my son decided to redirect my life. he came home telling me, dad, this is the right time to do this, and i think you should get

involved in politics, and i was totally called off-guard. slow down. i don't know anything about american politics. he said this is the right time to do it. >> mr. mayor, it's jonathan lemire. let's talk about that. about that foray into politics that on the surface, unlikely campaign in montana. tell us what that race was like and what got you to your post? >> you know, and i was frightened when he told me and i thought give me three reasons why you think i could run and win. dad, you know everybody. everybody knows you and you're educated. i said whoa, whoa, slow down. that's not it. he told me to get some friends of mine, and so i gathered some friends of mine and we had dinner, and i told them about it and one of the ladies said oh, my god, this was fate. we were thinking about asking you to do this and now you're asking us to do that.

i said so what do i need to do? first, you need to get your family on board and in my household we vote on everything, and i knew it was difficult to get my wife on board. my wife maddie, so my son blizz, he had done the groundwork and we outvoted her three to one. my daughter named jamie and she was in bahrain in the navy and we outvoted my wife so she had to get on board. >> in my family i like to not have too many votes. >> no, but that was just the family vote, but part of the process was getting the community to know that i was serious about this, and i went around and we knocked on doors and i was able to explain why i wanted to run and what i had noticed some of the

deficiencies, and it came to fruition. eventually. mr. mayor, you were in liberia, in monrovia on april 12, 1980, when armed militants stormed the executive mansion and you were in the united states on january 6th two years ago when you saw what happened close to me on capitol hill when armed protesters storming the u.s. capitol building. i was wondering what was going through your mind. you were in montana, obviously, miles away, but you must have been watching it on television and i was wondering watching it on television as someone who lived through one insurrection and one successful coup. >> yes. the only thing i kept telling my wife is they don't want that here. they do not want that here because we know what it is when people get up in arms. it's -- no one person is left undone.

we are all affected. we are still affected by what happened on january 6th and thank god that it happened where it happened and it was able to be curved because we have the systems and we have the system that we have in place here in america. we have separate, separate powers whereas in liberia, it was tough because we didn't have those and everything ran from the executive branch, and that is not the same thing here in this country, so we were very lucky here in america. >> mayor collins, it's alexey mchammond with axios. good to see you. i appreciate you walking us through how your friends and you thought it was fate to run and it sounds you, of course, pulled it off. it couldn't always have been easy and i wonder if you can

speak us to about questions or your electability in a state of montana as a black man running for a seat that had not been held by one. >> that's what i told my son. i told him you have to be looking at this when you want me to do this, but what was the doubts i had was from myself because i didn't think i could do it, but what really geared up my team was the fact that after the first quarter reporting i realized i had outraced the incumbent and i called the team together and said this is serious. they have faith in us. we have to turn this thing around and that's when we really got into gear and started this -- the whole process. >> the mayor of helena montana, just an extraordinary story and an example of the beauty of chasing the dream here in america. wilmot collins, thanks so much.

i know we'll hear much more from you in the years ahead. thank you very much, sir. we appreciate it. >> thanks, willie. i appreciate being here. coming up next, emmy award-winning actor willy crudup joins us for a look at his new project. "morning joe" is coming right back. "morning joe" is coming right back r free. like the subway series menu. just buy any footlong in the app, and get one free. free monsters, free bosses, any footlong for free! this guy loves a great offer. let's see some hustle!

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bleeding, bruising, fever, chills, or other symptoms of an infection, a severe or worsening rash, are or plan to become pregnant, or breastfeeding. long live hugs and kisses. ask about kisqali. and long live life. no one here is not a dreamer, am i right? not in a world like this. where crowe can have it all. and that's what i want for you and your families. you wake up to the earth rise at your bedroom window. your wife out on her lunar garden, your boy shagging flies on the zero-g diamond. come on. why should the rich and famous

get our moon all to themselves and the bright side, that's the place for real people to start fresh, unwind, retire and not to mention you own an asset your kids will be grateful for. so, please, take a minute. just a minute and sit down with our top-notch sales associates and start living your brighter tomorrow today. >> i mean, i'm sold. that's a clip from the upcoming series "hello tomorrow," billy crudup, a talented salesman that includes a new timeshare home on the moon in a retro future version of america and billy joins us now. he's the star and executive producer of the series which premieres this friday on apple tv +. >> good to see you. >> thank you very much for having me. >> absolutely. this is such a fascinating series purpose we were talking that maybe this guy is a bit of a huckster and maybe that doesn't matter to him and maybe that doesn't matter to some of the people that were buying what he's telling.

i believe that he believes that he is selling hope. he believes that if you can organize a product or a principle or an idea for the right price that doesn't take them down the rabbit hole and that's an honest way to make a living and an honest way to gain the day. does he have a reckoning that maybe i am misleading some of these people and i'm going to keep going? for sure there are some materiel things you'll find out throughout the show that are factual, that in fact, the truth in there is what he is selling, the hope, the potential of it and the future of a brighter tomorrow and how can you not say that's true or not true? that's an idea. that's something that get excited about, and the actual timeshares themselves and whether or not -- i mean, how many times have you seen a hotel online and you go there and it doesn't quite look like it did online. >> yes, pictures.

>> doesn't smell exactly like you thought it might online. this is a feature of the salesmanship mentality, and our country does it beautifully and poetically. >> exactly. this is about much more of course than selling timeshares. i mean, there's politics you can see in here. there's religion. it's all about selling a vision of the future that's going to be better than the one that's here. >> an evangelist for capitalism, an evangelist for the american dream, and we have that in the fabric of our society the way that we talk about it. in fact, president biden during his state of the union address, i think he said he was trying to describe one of the features of america and the word that he came up with was possibilities and that has everything to do with the future and nothing to do with the in present in some ways. it has a way of managing the practical parts of being alive. it's really about what we can reach for. i think that's a fundamental principle of america. it makes for a great tv show. >> so pitching that hope,

pitching those possibilities, you drew upon a familiar character, right? your own father. you said your own dad reminded you, you drew inspiration from him for this role. i don't think you have a place in the moon. beyond that, how did that work? how did you evoke him? >> my dad was convinced in a better tomorrow because he was dissatisfied with himself in the day. my mom was the one who hold it all together for us. she's watching right now, hi, mom. >> hi, mom. >> she was the one who was on the ground doing the real work day-to-day, and my dad was the one who was off dreaming. the guys who wrote this, they had a word for it called jackpotitis, and it's this gambling mentality, which is your better future is just around the corner. if i win the lottery. if i invent the pet rock. my dad was always looking for his pet rock. we had inflatable ice crests and umbrellas, and he was selling stone crabs out of the back of his car, always hoping there was

going to be one thing that was going to make him the big shot he always wanted to be. i think he inherited that from his father. he father impressed upon him you're nothing unless you come back here a major success. >> it's that thing of my number's about to come in. >> my number's about to come in, and even hoping for that number does make your day a little brighter. but when it comes in it's not always what it seems. >> which raises the larger question of is it such a bad thing, you don't want to be scamming people and taking their money and all that, but selling people hope if they need it. >> i'm in the business myself. we tell a story, hopefully a nominal fee, $13 if you're going to the theater, and maybe, well, $16 if you're subscriing online, and we hope to give you a good story. that's it. we're going to sell you a good story and hope you're entertained by it. >> speaking of good stories we have to ask you about the morning show. it hits home for some of us sitting at this set.

it just wrapped production in season 3. what more can you tell us about it, and when might we see it? >> it's so funny, because we just wrapped and because i didn't really confide in them about all the press i was doing, i'm not sure what i can tell you. i can tell you the experience of doing it is they threw everything at this season. the world has gone through quite a bit in the last two years, and i think the writers and show runners on this decided to include all of it, and have the characters within the morning show do their best to juggle, maintain their lives in the midst of such chaos. >> you won a well-deserved emmy for your character in that cast, it's stunning. it's staggering. how did you get ready for that part? you watch shows like this? are you hiding out taking notes in the broom closet here in 30 rock? >> i won't give away all of my secrets. the writer, it was all on the page. for me i invested in what she had written and what i thought she was exploring was a

fascinating room reader. a guy who i've seen in new york at every gala you go to. they can pick out the most powerful person in the room, cozy up to them, see what they're interested in and find a way to promote their own career. >> and managing talent, you do very well with jen and reece's characters. >> which is all about reading the room. figuring out what you guys need, figuring out what will work for some people. >> without getting specific on national television, you really nailed it. that's all i'm going to say. >> you're wearing a mic, be careful. >> the new series "hello tomorrow" appears this friday on apple tv plus. billy crudup. congrats on the series. >> i appreciate you all having me. thank you. >> katty kay, what's on your mind? >> first of all, season 3 of "the morning show" is a must. that's the breaking news. the fact that it's wrapped and it's coming out, i'm excited about that. we started the show with georgia

maloney who campaigned as one thing and took a much more moderate approach. in this era of populist politics, we sometimes don't think that's possible, which made me think about nikki haley and maybe we assume she has to come down one side or the other on donald trump, but maybe she can't. maybe there's a way to tow the middle line. >> we can't forget that democrats have moved south carolina to be their first primary state in 2024. that means biden, jim clyburn, a host of other democrats will be descending upon that state. that gives them a great opportunity to bill nikki haley or tim scott, and vice versa for republicans to try to take a swipe at them and diminish biden's standing. >> if we're going to revisit the top of the show, we should mention joe's tribute to the rest stops on the highways in poland. >> definitely. >> and i think we want to get a big ratings kick for 10:00 a.m., let's talk about that further. >> new jersey my home state has

the best rest stops. john bon jovi's rest stop. there's a sinatra, whitney houston. woodrow wilson, we cover all the bases in jersey. yasmin vossoughian picks up the coverage after a quick final break. final break. me rica's beverage companies are working together to deliver more great tasting options with less sugar or no sugar at all. in fact, today, nearly 60% of beverages sold contain zero sugar. different sizes? check. clear calorie labels? just check. with so many options, it's easier than ever to find the balance that's right for you. more choices. less sugar. balanceus.org >> woman: why did we choose safelite? less sugar. >> vo: driving around is how we get our baby to sleep, so when our windshield cracked, we trusted the experts. they focus on our safety... so we can focus on this little guy. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪

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