few people on the planet authorized to go inside a nuclear reactor. he wrote about suiting up and descending into the reactor when it was his turn. the washington post points out in one minute and 29 seconds,, carter had absorbed the maximum amount of radiation human can withstand an a year. the mission was successful. the damaged core was removed. jimmy carter's bravery and service to take us off the air this presidents'day. and on that note, i wish you a good night, remember, you can watch my show, simon, every weekend at 4 pm eastern, right here on msnbc. and from all of our colleagues across the networks of msnbc news, thank you for staying up late. i will see this weekend. thanks for being with us this hour, it's good to have you

here. it is presidents'day today, february 20th. presidential historian -- gonna be with us tonight. she's gonna be with us here live very very much looking forward to that conversation. but it was on this date, which won february 20th in 2014 when the group they call the heavenly hundred was killed. it was actually 118 people, call them the heavenly hundred. the youngest of them was just 16 years old. the oldest of them was 83 years old. it all happened as the culmination of protests that had started the previous november, people were protesting in ukraine. because the government of that country had had the chance to sign on to a big trade deal with europe. a deal that was expected to have big economic benefits for ukraine, it was definitely something that would bring ukraine closer to europe. closer to the west. people in ukraine frothy war,

really looking forward to. it this is a popular thing they very much wanted it. but the president of ukraine at the time decided he wasn't going to do it. and he basically decided that because russia didn't want him to do that. in 2014, the president of ukraine, and i know this sounds very to say, he was basically a puppet of russia, of vladimir putin. russia had played paid for his political rise and his political party. they had worked to install him in power. they totally controlled him. he was their guy. that was how russia controlled ukraine. they controlled the ukrainian president. they installed him in power and they told him what to do and he did it. and russia of course didn't want ukraine to have better economic ties to the west. didn't want ukraine to have any ties to the, west they wanted ukraine only to be tied to russia. and so when ukraine had the

opportunity to sign on to this pro european trade deal, russia didn't want him to do it and russia's guy in ukraine, this very corrupt pro-russian president, he said he wouldn't sign that trade deal with europe. he said and said he would sign a new one with russia. and people in ukraine did not want that. they wanted to stop looking east, they wanted to look west instead. and so in response to that decision by him, they started protesting. in november of 2013. and a few months into it, by february of 2014, the protesters were still there and they were not showing any signs of going away. despite the cold winter and how long they had been out in the streets protesting already. by all accounts, by february 20? 14 for months plus into these protests, bosco had started putting increasing pressure on their guy.

on the pro-russian president of ukraine. that he needed to end this thing, he had to get these protesters off of the streets of ukraine. and so by this time of the year, by mid february, ukraine's then president, russia's handpicked guy, he gave the order. and security forces started using lethal force without restraint. against their own citizens on the street. they start using live fire. february 18th and february 19th and february 20th,, between 2000 and 3000 citizens were injured by security forces and police operating the streets of kyiv. people also started dying and in considerable numbers. dozens of people killed. on february 20th alone, more than 50 people, more than 50 protesters in one day were murdered in the streets. some of them shot by snipers. a shot from a distance by

military snipers using live ammunition. to kill teenagers, to kill 83 year olds. to kill these people who were protesting. by the end of that extraordinarily bloody day of february 20th, 2014, it was more than 100 people who had been shot dead in the streets in total. and their corpses were lined up in the streets. and those are the people who they call the heavenly hundred. but the history of ukraine also took a 90 degree turn that day, on this date, february 20th. after all of those people were massacred overnight on february 20th, 2014. the following day, february 21st, that pro russia pro putin president of ukraine, he got into a car and he fled, he left ukraine. he was the president of ukraine any friendly country. he fled, naturally, to russia.

where he is still in exile today. and that series of events, february 20th and 21st, when the president fled, that started the story, effectively, of where we are now. after their pro-russian puppet president oversaw the murder of dozens of protesters in the streets and then fled the country, russia for their part they freaked out that they no longer had their own guy running the country next door. . russia of course in 2014 soon invaded ukraine and started taking over parts of that country by force. parts of eastern ukraine and crimea. ukrainians, meanwhile, started learning about how exactly they're pro-russian puppet leader had been living while he had been in charge. i mean, they knew he was corrupt, that was part of what they were protesting against. but after he was gone, they found his private zoo. that he secretly crept for himself. they found his gold toilets carved to look like we had

animal feet. which was super creepy. they found his secret private car collections. they found his private restaurant on a boat that was made to look like a spanish galleon. that he used to float around on in a private lake that he had made for himself. taxpayer expenses. and at the time, what seems like just a bizarre side show american connection to all of that was the fact that it was actually a high dollar american political consultant who had been paid to be the top political adviser to that wildly corrupt pro-russian ukrainian president. the american political consultant who had been paid to get this pro-russian guy into power and had run his campaigns, who had overseen a personal makeover for the, guy who had written his speeches and political platforms, who got the guy installed in power. the american political consultant who did that is a man named paul manafort. paul manafort got paid millions

and millions of dollars to install the pro-russian puppet, victor jankowicz, as ukraine's president. and tell yanukovych oversaw a massacre in the streets of kyiv and then had to flee to russia. after years and years and years of getting paid very handsomely to work for pro-russian interests in ukraine, paul manafort soon popped up just a few years later to work on his host first american campaign in decades. after what happened in 2014 in ukraine paul manafort was soon back in america all of a sudden for the first time in years. to become campaign chair for the donald trump for president campaign of 2016. an interesting lee he said he was happy to do that one for free. he didn't ask to be paid for that. president biden today going to ukraine and going to kyiv, on february 20th. it is a surprise and and the storm issuing thing for us to see. and for people in ukraine to see. i mean, at base level this is

an active war zone, and a part of that country that gets hit by russian missiles all the time. seeing the american president there, walking the streets of kyiv while air raid sirens literally sounded in that moment. about possible incoming fire from russia. it is just not something you ever expect to see. we have never seen an american president in an active war zone where there wasn't an american military presence there. not before today. president zelenskyy of ukraine but at this statement, this tourist to the point statement about president biden statement visit today. he said, historic, timely, grave. i think this image in particular from today, this image of president biden at st. michaels cathedral in kyiv, not his overall trip to that cathedral but i think this single jugular image of him there, this is going to be seen as one of the photos of his presidency. if not one of the photos of his

life. but for ukraine, i mean, it's interesting to see as americans, it's a landmark and restricting for an american president to have done. the ukrainians also recognize the historic nature of what president biden did today. but for, them for him to have arrived on the state, on february 20th of all days, to sort of land with a different weight than it does for us. i, mean every year since 2014 on this date on february 20th, they lay graves in kyiv, they commemorate the murder of the heavenly hundred, of those protesters who died. and we do have an auto american connection to the violence against those protesters, to the sniper assassination and murder of those hundred plus people. if there really was an american political consultant to lead with that pro russia leader in power. who put in power the leader who did that. i think that is sort of still a hard thing for us to wrap our

hands around, what was our connection to a repercussion leader taking over in ukraine? while there was an american connection to it. and the american connections to these politics, they can be hard to follow. for example, this weekend there was a random and i mean truly random rally on the national mall in washington d.c.. a rally in support of russia? i guess? given all the russian flags. at least a rally against the u.s. supporting ukraine. and trying to stand up against the russian invasion of their country. this was a tiny event, it was small, it was a weird assemblage of americans that were proud boys there. there were some of the white supremacist groups that you would recognize from the unite the right rally in charlottesville a few years ago. also represented their prominently. the remains of the bizarre lyndon literacy called. there were a lot of people with russian flags, also the occasional flag of the former soviet union?

also at least one person who guest host for tucker carlson in the fox news channel was there as a featured speaker? there were anti vaccine conspiracy theorists, a lot of them. they were cryptocurrency promoters. it was a really weird group. it was a small rally, and a weird one. but that is what it looks like. that is the assemblage of short straws and split ends and loose change and lose electrons. that is advocating in this country that russia is in the right in this war and america should be on putin's side as he keeps invading other countries. i mean no disrespect to the americans who turned out as part of this small event this weekend, but it is not like they represent a big constituency, that is arguing for this pro russia point of view. but while this happened this weekend, meanwhile, president biden was heading to kyiv secretly. and once he got there today, and we all found out that he

had made the trip to kyiv, at least one pro trump republican member of congress, who happens to have a seat on the homeland security committee called for him to be impeached for having gone to ukraine. other pro trump republican members of congress today said it was a disgrace, and a shame, and how dare president biden go to ukraine today? preflorida governor ron desant, who wants to run for president, apparently went on the fox news channel this morning. and said that president biden was wrong to go. and we shouldn't be supporting ukraine in this war, because whatever russia is, doing it is nothing to worry about. again, it is not clear in political terms what the big constituency is for this stuff. but that is where at least the trump and trump-ish wing of the republican party says they are on this issue. and good luck to them with it. with republicans in control of congress now, and with the

trump part of the republican party being a little cuckoo. or at least a little unpredictable on this issue. it is not clear yet whether in our domestic politics there are going to be complications ahead. and how much and how well we will continue to support ukraine as this war starts its second year this week. for his part in ukraine today, while he was meeting with president biden, president zelenskyy went out of his way not only to thank president biden for making the, trip which again he called historic and timely and brave. he thanked president biden for making the, trip he thanked president biden for supporting ukraine, he thanked president biden for making the first call to him from a foreign leader, when the russia invaded. the first telephone call of support came from president biden, he said. but in addition to thanking america broadly, and president biden in this, visited president zelenskyy today also shrewdly, i, think thanks to the american congress for its bipartisan support. which at this point isn't a

foregoing collusion that it will remain. president biden for his part went out of his way to say that americans support for ukraine last as long as it takes. he also said that russia cannot win this fight. >> russia's aim was to wipe ukraine off the map. putin's war of conquest is failing. . russia's military has lost half of its territory and it wants occupied. young, talented russians are fleeing on the tens of thousands. not wanting to come back to russia. not just fleeing from the military but fleeing from russia itself. . because they see no future in their country. >> president biden is right that russia's military did fail in its initial objectives in this war. and it is military performance has been shockingly bad

compared to expectations for what the russian military was capable of these things. on the other side of the ledger, ukraine's resilience and their military performance has been shockingly good compared to the world's expectations for how they would stand up against such insult. but even so, it is not like anyone can clearly say that ukraine is winning. or indeed, it is not at all clear that anyone can say with any real clarity of war any confidence of this is going to end. i mean, as mad as russia's military has performed in traditional combat, thus far, russian infrastructure attacks punishing ukrainian civilians have been quite effective. i mean, they are finding that shooting power plants and shooting water infrastructure is easier than fighting opposing forces. and they are focusing on that to an intensifying degree. and that of course imposes the manse costs on the civilians of ukraine. also today, another international factor at play, today while president biden was

in kyiv, he top foreign policy official in the chinese government traveled to moscow. amid warnings from the u.s. government that china is ramping up its help to the russian side in this war. china materially propping up russia in this war would of course change the arithmetic about how long it would take for russia to exhaust its efforts and its resources and its will inviting all these losing battles. even beyond that, even as president biden announced another half billion dollars in u.s. military aid to ukraine today. the ukrainians are nevertheless pressing further for the u.s. to deliver american f-16 fighter jets as well. and that is something president biden has thus far said no he will not do. but there is some influential bipartisan support for him to go ahead and do it. even as the republican party appears to cleave. some of them, saying, yeah we continue to support but wrap it up and send them the f-16s. others saying we should be on putin's side in this war. or what putin is doing is no

problem. we have no issue with putin, why are we helping ukraine? >> we are going to get some expert help tonight talking about those political concerns, and those practical concerns. the open questions that remain about how this war is going to go, and for how long. but today, as a first principles matter, today was history. it was the american president, surprise, in the war zone in kyiv. the first u.s. president in a war zone abroad where there was not a u.s. military presence there. to support his presence and protect him. and now tomorrow, looking ahead, it is going to be a split screen, as president putin in russia will give his equivalent of the state of the union address. at the kremlin. while on the same day with the opposite message, presumably, president, biden tomorrow will give a major speech from warsaw. a speech open to the public. a speech that is expected to be about the need for democracies to stand together.

and for us to do so as long as it takes. joining us now is doors -- presidential historian, she is the pulitzer prize-winning author of many books, including her most recent book, leadership in turbulent times which looks at the leadership of presidents of abraham lincoln teddy, roosevelt, lyndon b. johnson after. doors karen's good when it's good to see you my friend, thank you for being with us tonight. >> it is i am so glad to be with you on his storied moment. >> it does feel historic. and i want to ask you sort of if that is a fair characterization? we do know just in raw sort of statistical terms that it is the first time in u.s. history that an american president has gone to awards and where there is an active u.s. military presence. as anything else that you think we should keep in mind that you have in mind as an analysis situation? any other time an american president has done something like this? >> well, certainly, i, mean abraham lincoln and to the

active battlefield more than a dozen times during the war. and there was a moment, actually, when he was at fort stevens when a bullet went right by his side. hitting the surgeon who was next to him. someone, said get down you fool. so, but, he wasn't the president of his troops. but the other troops were right to close by. but i think the extraordinary thing when i looked at this historic moment is just that it brings back echoes for me of the partnership between churchill and after. i, mean i think of zelenskyy as a modern-day churchill. he has been able with the power of his words to give the strength to the ukrainian people, the power of his example, staying in kyiv instead of running around and going away as he was asked to do. similarly, churchill stayed in london, at the power of his words, and there is a sense in which fdr had to do what biden has had to do. which is to go step-by-step and ratcheting up his support for britain. because this was in 1940, 1941, before pearl harbor. and we didn't have enough weapons to give to britain. he gave everything he could to

britain. when we were on the 18th military, power we went or not the powerhouse than. he gave 12 footer -- that is a quarter of our, thing you will be impeached if you do. that eternally, congress -- they find our weapons, there you will be hung by a lamppost. so that same concern that biden has had, how to move forward. but on the other hand as you are just saying at the end of your talk right now. we have become hostages to fortune now in terms of how ukrainian democracy works. and that is the question, whether or not biden may need to present even more weapons to them in order to let this war be one. because if it is lost, and his presidency is courageously built on it. and we have got to hope that he is going to win that battle. if that means the ukrainians have to win their battle we have to help them do it. >> and on this point about the sort of domestic politics around this thing, i feel like we are in a very freudian state in terms of the opposition party to president biden, the republican party and what they think about this war. obviously we have got some sort

of messaging but i think it is confused messaging, i think it is not particularly cogent messaging. from the right side of the republican party, not wanting to support ukraine anymore and talking about ukraine fatigue and some extremists being very quite pro putin. being pro russia. suggesting we might support the other side in the war. but it does not seem coherent. and there definitely are a lot of republicans including influential republicans in congress, support president biden and the democrats in terms of standing by ukraine on this. i wonder if what you described as the sort of churchill and fdr dynamic their affords any lessons for president biden in terms of thinking about isolation at home, thinking about people trying to score political points on him at home by a problem advising national bipartisan support. for ukraine. bipartisan>> you know, i think e important thing to realize is that roosevelt did have to face

a dominant room of isolation, when he took those steps in 1940 and 41 before pearl harbor. but he gradually educated the american public a few of the fight in britain was important fight for us. first of, all it would prevent us from getting into the work possibly if britain could succeed. but even more importantly would repairs if we had to get into the war. so i think the challenge for president biden is going to be he has to persuade the american public, he will have to use that bully pulpit and maybe that is what tomorrow speech is partly about. but he is going to have to keep doing that because we also roosevelt was able to educate the american public so that when these came up, i thought, well it'll never, pass this is laziness congress want allowed to happen. it passed and by a good majority, because through his fireside chats he had already educated people on why this was necessary. so that is going to be the continuing battle, i think, for president biden to use that public or suasion and make sure that the country and the bipartisanship that is there right now, and these are people remain as you said a we are group of people out there. if they were to gather more

power, not the pro russian people but the people who don't want to necessarily use our energy and our time in our money for something over there, rather than a home. if that gains a predominance, then we have got a problem here. >> what president biden goes and gives that speech tomorrow, in warsaw. it will be early morning time here, because of the time difference, but it should probably be, i, mean i will management will beep somewhat of a dramatic setting. it is at a landmark location in warsaw. a castle that sort of overlooks the city. it will be open to the public. but i think there will be sort of in the eyes of the national media certainly, or the international media certainly. a sort of split screen between him giving that address within hours of president putin giving his equivalent of the state of the union, he sort of state of the state address in russia. and i think that we know enough to expect that russia will talk about, you know, the ukraine government being not see. and nato wanting to invade russia and being imperialist,

and all of the other things that he says about nato and the west and the united states. i think we can expect that president biden will make the case that democracies need to stick together and authoritarianism needs to be opposed whenever it threatens democracy. that sort of a head to head contrast between two world leaders telling opposite stories about one another. that itself is a powerful thing just as a dichotomy. , isn't it for the world? >> oh, absolutely, and again, it's a historical. moment any, and maybe you know i have loved history for my mom life story left pregnant when i can. but when roosevelt gave his big fireside chat, calling for the arsenal democracy and when least in december of 1940. that's very night, but german specifically bombed london, the heaviest attack had ever done. destroying a big chunk of the old city. and they thought that would undo the remarks of fdr. but churchill went around to the bombs after the next day, and he told roosevelt, they are even more spirited than before. what you have done is create a

partnership. and that is what matters. so this is going to be really interesting having these two. i think the timing of this was incredible. the part you brought up was what many people may not know about that february 20th thing. in addition to that, you have got the timing of this being a war year coming on friday. and the timing of this two people talking tomorrow for world tension. >> it is so interesting, so scary. i mean, i do feel like, i mean, i have said this before, but i do feel like history is here to help, let we talk about things being president, i think too easily, a lot of things that president. but when things really are historic knowing how they fit into even vaguely analogous situations in history with previous presidents and previous leaders facing these challenges, i think it really does help us appreciate the enormity of the moment. and nobody helps us do that better than, that you, doris -- author, it is great to see you, thank you so much for being here tonight. >> thank you for having me.

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reactor in the whole world used to be in canada and ontario, and a place called chalk river lavatories. their reactor was built in the summer of 1947, it was used mainly for research purposes. and one day, about five years into the life of that reactor, in december 1952. the reactor exploded. a combination of human error and mechanical failure caused the reactor to melt down. which then set off a series of

explosions. it is a miracle that no one was hurt. but in 1952, this was still uncharted territory, this was still very dangerous. this, you have to keep in mind, i mean, this was before fukushima, this was before chernobyl even. this meltdown at chalk river was the world's first nuclear reactor disaster ever. so even though the explosions of the meltdown didn't kill anybody, they were very concerned about what they were gonna deal with all the remediation and the ongoing threat of the still decomposing reactor. there was no model, no instruction manual for her to clean this thing up. radioactive material had escaped into the atmosphere. the rest of the plant was flooded with radioactive water. the reactor itself was still very very highly radioactive. but the whole thing needed to be addressed. it wasn't going to take care of itself. you can just leave it. he needed to be shut down and taken apart and then removed from the site. so it wouldn't cause any more

destruction. how do you do that without -- people working on that to a deadly amount of radiation? to figure it out, the canadian government enlisted help from the u.s. government, and specifically from the u.s. navy. u.s. navy by that time had an elite nuclear submarine program. they therefore had a lot of train engineers who were experienced with nuclear technology. even so, they knew that anybody working on the shutdown effort could only spend about 90 seconds inside the reactor before they would hit what was considered to be the limit for radiation exposure. so what they did, again, back, in 1942. they assembled these crews. they thought they were the best people on earth. to be able to handle this kind of a crisis. but then they had to make a very specific plan. that would split the whole task of taking apart the nuclear reactor. they would let the whole thing. everything you need to do into individual and second steps.

because nobody could do anything inside the reactor that lasted more than 90 seconds. so the way it worked was one man would run in and, like, unscrew a bold if that would take 90 seconds. then he would run out. next man would run in after his 90 seconds was up. next i would unscrew the -- do whatever the next step was. in order to plan this, to these tiny increments of time, they actually built a full size replica of the real after, at a nearby playground. and they practiced every single step of the shutdown and the breakdown on the disassembly of the story after. they practiced it all on the replica. that is how they took this thing apart. one bold at a time. one 92nd work shipped at a time. it sounds insane but it actually worked. he melted down reactor was safely disassembled. and removed from the site. the entire thing actually was re-assembled and back up and running safely in just a few

years. it was of course a success that came at great risk to the man who had to run into that radioactive reactor to take it apart it by bit. the man who was in charge of this incredibly risky and incredibly innovative operation was just 28 years old. he was a lieutenant in the navy with nuclear submarine experience. he was one of the only man on the entire planet at the time for the skill set to develop this kind of a plan. and to himself go down inside a meltdown nuclear reactor. a young man at the time, a young man from georgia, his name was james pearl carter. he went by jimmy for short. before jimmy carter became president, before he became a politician of any kind, he was in the navy. he is actually the only american president to have graduated from the u.s. naval academy in minneapolis. he served in the navy for seven years as a submarine or. that is how he got chosen for the prestigious nuclear submarine program. and how he ended up in command

of the elite team that saved canada. this team that saved ontario from further nuclear disaster after the world's first full scale nuclear reactor disaster. he himself spent 89 seconds, one minute and 29 seconds inside the chalk point reactor. and screwing, you know, his bold or whatever is one piece of the task was. these days the recommended radiation exposure would be well below what jimmy carter endured in those 89 seconds. he said later that in testing after the incident, his urine tested positive for radioactivity for six months. today asked 98 years old, almost 70 years since he walked into that nuclear reactor, jimmy carter's home with his family, he is on hospice care. he is in the same town in georgia where he was born. in these which are likely to be his final days, to mark president carter's service to

the navy and to the nation. the u.s. naval academy has announced that it has renamed a major building on campus in his honor. the building was previously named morey hall, named after a confederate naval chief. that's building us now officially been renamed cartersville. well wishes visited president carter's hometown of planes georgia today. people gathered in the auditorium of the high school where the former president and his wife rosalynn both attended school. -- historian asked the crowd to take the court or challenge. said, do something nice for somebody who needs it. if you have someone who needs a phone call, make the phone call. if somebody needs a visit, go make that visit. >> the car challenge. parts of the nation which president carter and his family tonight. more next stay with us. you may be, by the intrusions of religion into our secular government. that's why i'm asking you to join the freedom from religion foundation,

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expectations and predictions about the war in ukraine been so wrong? when russia showed its cards early on that it wanted to not just stay in crimea or in eastern ukraine, they wanted to go straight to the capitol, straight to kyiv. i think most people in the west thought that if that is what wash russia wanted to do, that is what russia would do. i think the expectation was that russia would be toppling the national government in kyiv if not taking over all of ukraine in fairly short order. that was not the universal expectation, but i would say

that was a broad expectation in the west. russia, in fact, never got any more than -- adam or grand river level, i think most of the west expected that russia would at least control the skies over ukraine. russia effectively eliminated ukraine's abilities to operate in the air, they will control ukraine airspace thanks to the vastly superior numbers and capabilities of the russian air force. that also has not happened at all. despite the expectations that russian dominance of airspace in this war would be inevitable. now, with russia ukraine having held off russia for a year, i think it is fairly easy to say the almond expectation is that a long grinding war in the long run benefits russia. however, inspiring and resilient the ukrainian people of doing themselves to be, ultimately russia is a much bigger country and per capital is paying a much lower cost for this war. and so in that formulation time is on russia's side. longer the war grinds on the

more likely it is that russia comes out the ultimate picture. now not everyone holds that if you of course. but i think it is fairly, i think it is fair to say that it is a widely held western expectation. given how ba have fared over the course of this past year when it comes to this one, i think perhaps it's worth looking at that one too. on the occasion of president biden's surprise trip to kyiv today, to meet with president zelenskyy and ukraine, and apple argues in the atlantic that actually in this case part of what president biden's trip to kyiv says it's that time isn't on russia side. times on ukraine's side. and that is a message that everyone including rachel should know. how could that be? joining us now is anne applebaum, she is a pulitzer prize winner, a staff writer at the atlantic. miss applebaum, thank you so much for being, here i really appreciate it. >> delighted.

>> first, let me just ask you if you agree with that framing, that there have been some big western expectations about how this last year would go, that have been wrong, proved wrong at a pretty fundamental level? >> look, we got almost everything about this war wrong. a year ago today, most people expected the capitol in kyiv to follow within a few days. they thought zelenskyy would flee the country. the president of ukraine. if he wasn't going to flee the country, they thought he would be almost certainly assassinated or would be very quickly arrested or eliminated, there were lists circulating of ukrainians who were due to be arrested. that didn't happen. we were very wrong, both about the russian military and about the ukrainians. we didn't factor in the corruption of russia, when we heard how much money had been spent on the russian military, we thought it had gone to buy weapons. actually, it turned out like quite a lot of it had gone to

buy villas in the south of france or apartments in london. and i think that we missed the story of ukraine. we missed the reconstruction of ukraine that took place after 2014. we missed the resurgence of ukrainians civil society. it is a society that is really built from the ground up. and not the top down. a lot of young people run it. it is many ministers and deputy ministers who are in their 30s and 40s. they really replaced the generation of kind of post soviet leaders who have led the country up until, you know, eight or nine years ago, and we misread how the war was gonna go. so i think it is a worth continually asking ourselves whether we are not misreading what is going to happen in the next few months for the next couple of years as well. so i think your framing in that sense is absolutely right. >> and all of those mistakes or false assumptions are things that have been proven wrong. all sort of go on one direction. they all lined to us

overestimating russia's capabilities and underestimating ukraine's. is it possible now after a year that we are in danger of overcorrecting for that? and overestimating what ukraine can withstand? underestimating what russia particularly the russian military is capable of? >> so the russian military, most people who are watching it don't think that the russian military is capable of anything extraordinary or incredible, they are not capable of any great breakthroughs. they are, they have a lot of people whom they are willing to sacrifice. they proved that they are willing to tolerate really an extraordinary number of casualties that is unimaginable for, for example, in the united states, that we could have up to the hundred -- 20,000 casualties and there would be no public outcry or no objection, especially in a war that, most people are interested in or don't feel strongly about or even really are afraid to discuss. you know, so of course i don't want to, i don't want to indicate that russia is to be

somehow discounted or ignored, as you have said earlier in the program. president putin is going to make a speech tomorrow which may well call for a new mobilization. he might call for the move to a war economy. he might close the borders. all kinds of things are possible. but i also think we could keep in mind, ukrainians have been working very hard to think about new and different ways to fight. they are good at reinventing weapons, changing the way they work, you know, whether it is cheap drones or more expensive american equipment. they sometimes have made it work in new ways. they used it and unusual ways. i know that there are thinking hard about what advantages they can have against, you know a, large military russian force. and i think it is important not to underestimate them, again, either. you, know it is also a war in which i think we have to take into consideration the possibility of black swan events. we don't really know what is

going on inside the kremlin. we don't have any way of finding out. many things could change very quickly. public support for the war in russia could crumble very quickly. public support in the sense of, you, know a small number of people around putin could change rapidly. once it becomes clear that the war can't be one. so, you know, there are a lot of strange unexpected factors that i, you know, i would hate to sit here and make bad predictions one year into the war when, as i said a year ago people got almost everything wrong. >> but as you say, i think it is wise to say, watch out for the unexpected. and i think that actually includes watching out for what we are going to hear tomorrow from president putin and his sort of state of the state speech. those potential previews that you gave there in terms of what people be looking for moving to a wartime economy in potentially closing the borders and other extreme measures like that. kept essentially put things on a very different footing for

him domestically. it will be really interesting to watch. and, applebaum staff writer at the atlantic, i really appreciate you making time for your, tonight or you've been traveling a lot recently, and this is late at night, thank you for being here. >> thank you. >> we will be right back, stay with us. s. ndigestion, ♪ ♪ upset stomach, diarrhea. ♪ pepto bismol coats and soothes for fast relief... when you need it most. detect this: living with hiv, i learned i can stay undetectable with fewer medicines. that's why i switched to dovato. dovato is for some adults who are starting hiv-1 treatment or replacing their current hiv-1 regimen. detect this: no other complete hiv pill uses fewer medicines to help keep you undetectable than dovato. detect this: most hiv pills contain 3 or 4 medicines. dovato is as effective with just 2. research shows people who take hiv treatment as prescribed and get to and stay undetectable

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summation of the -- two major political parties right, now you could do worse than the opening line of this washington post report from this weekend. dateline lansing michigan,

quote. republicans, here reeling from a midterm election wrote that many blamed on the inference of former president donald trump, responded saturday by spurning the former presidents choice for state party chair. and choosing someone even more extreme. of course they did. after a chaotic party conventions weekend, yes, the michigan republican party as elected as their new chair a woman whose relevant experience is having just lost a statewide election for secretary of state. by a whopping 14 points. she described herself as a christian nationalist. people who are christian nationalists believe that only christians should be citizens. she believes that demonic possession is not only real but contagious. and the core effort pitch to become chair of the michigan state republican party was that she believes the 2020 presidential election was stolen from donald trump. but the 2020 election was also stolen from her as well. her opponent in the race for

state party chairman, he also lost a race for statewide office in michigan last year, but his unforgivable sin after he lost that race was that he conceded that he lost. she never conceded that she lost. she still denies that she lost. and so they picked her over him. because the more election denial, the better. if there was any question as to whether or not there was any lessening of election denying radicalism in the republican party, it would seem that actually the opposite is true. at least in michigan, but it is not like michigan's outlier here. take, for example, the state of georgia. we have now learned that in georgia their state republican party is paying the legal bills of most of their fake electors. these are the people that are facing potential criminal prosecution now for having signed forged documents. that's where then sent to congress and the national archives, forged documents claiming that trump won their state even though trump did not

win their state. the state party is apparently behind them all the way for having done that. and we now know thanks to the atlanta journal-constitution, that the state party has already paid out over $200,000 for their legal bills. perhaps that is because one of the electors is the state party chairman, the of the republican party in georgia. but there is one another of these that i think goes with it in washington. and it concerns republican speaker of the house kevin mccarthy. today, axios was first to report that speaker mccarthy has decided to hand over all of the capitol security camera footage from the january 6th attack, this is 41,000 hours of footage. he has handed it all over to the fox news channel. which is devoted hours and hours and hours of airtime to conspiracy theories about january 6th being a liberal deep state plot that only seemed like it was caused by trump supporters, but really it was the liberals. so the speaker of the house just gave them all of the security camera footage from

the actual capital for them to play with. to see what they can do. here you go, fox news primetime. hopefully you can use this official government material to concoct an alternate narrative to give us some more convenient revisionist history about what happened on january 6th. these things all have one thing in common. as time goes by, the republican party's devotion to the stolen election lie. the republicans parties devotion to denying the result of elections that they don't like. the republican party's devotion to re-writing their history of their attempts to overturn previous elections. that fever is not breaking. this problem they have got does not diminishing overtime. it is not getting better as time goes on. not at all.

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