what can mamericans do to help >> right now, there's a lot in the way of veterans affairs and the benefits there, but what americans can do is make sure that congress stays accountable, holds the bureaucracies, the administrations accountable for delivering the benefits. there's a lot that can be done on things like va choice and how do we get those benefits delivered to those who dealt with the harm of battle. doing that means staying involved sometimes it means putting pressure on congress >> 20 years ago today, the united states began its invasion of iraq. retired master sergeant jason beardsley, thank you so much for joining us this morning. we appreciate it thanks to all of you for getting us "way too early" on this busy monday morning a jam-packed "morning joe" starts right now. can you support him for president? >> that's yet to be seen i think we'll have better choices. we're going to decide as a

family whether we offer ourself as one of them i think different times call for different leadership. >> yeah, you know, he tried to kill my family and tried to kill me, but, you know, it remains to be seen, whether i may support him for the republican nomination >> there you go. >>scene. we're not here there you go >> that's -- >> he admitted last week, mika, that donald trump put his family in danger and his own life in danger >> mm-hmm. >> for -- i have to say, for me, for everybody that i know, that's the end >> in an attempt to subvert or democracy. there's that. >> but let's just keep with the family like, let's go a little john dutton here. you know, you protect your family

he admitted last week that somebody tried to kill his family you know, don't go all john dutton on the revenge part, the other side of the boarder. at least you can say, i'm not going to support him no, no, jonathan, you know, he tried to have me is and my family killed on january 6th while trying to subvert democracy. i think i'll probably try to find somebody else instead of, that remains to be seen it's just, again, one more bizarre answer from a string of republicans who just can't quit donald because they're so afraid of his base. >> that's a lot of what we're going to be talk about today mike pence dodging a chance to take a stand against donald trump, as the former president is calling on his supporters with the same language that was used on january 6th. we're going to go through the latest developments in the manhattan da's case, and the possibility that an indictment could come this week plus, we'll have reaction

from house speaker kevin mccarthy and other prominent republicans that joe was talking about who are all pushing the same narrative about the justice system. and we are watching what's happening in beijing and moscow this morning, as chinese president xi jinping is meeting with vladimir putin for the first time since the invasion of ukraine. good morning welcome to "morning joe. it is monday, march 20th busy day with us, we have the host of "way too early," white house bureau chief at "politico," jonathan lemire. of politics nation, president of the national action network, reverend al sharpton is with us this morning congressional investigations reporter for "the washington post," jackie alemany is with us founder of the conservative website, the bulwark, charlie sykes. presidential historian john mem meacham. and former fbi official is with

us we start in mounting pressure across multiple states. trump could be charged as early as this week according to officials familiar with the plans, federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies are discussing security measures ahead of a possible indictment from the manhattan district attorney's office this is in connection with a hush money payment the former president allegedly made to porn star stormy daniels in the final days of the 2016 campaign, to keep her quiet about an affair she says she had with trump in 2006 trump denies having an afrfair with daniels and any wrongdoing. law enforcement's plans are precau precautionary, but trump claimed on social media over the weekend that he'd be arrested on tuesday. in that same post, he also called for protests to, quote,

take our nation back drawing comparisons to his calls for violence in the lead up to the january 6th insurrection despite those claims, a trump spokesperson tells nbc news that the former president has not been notified about a possible arrest as a precaution, however, manhattan d.a. alvin bragg told his staff in an internal memo over the weekend, he'd not tolerate attempts to intimidate our office or threaten the rule of law bragg is continuing with his investigation even as talk of an indictment reach as fever pitch. today, a one-time legal adviser to former trump attorney michael cohen, robert costello, says he will testify before the grand jury in the case a person with direct knowledge of the situation says trump's own attorneys asked the d.a.'s office to have costello testify. cohen also confirmed yesterday on msnbc that he was asked to

make himself available to the d.a.'s office as a rebuttal witness to costello's testimony. cohen denies that costello ever represented him. joe, i just think it's worth reminding everybody, that donald trump, if you think of what he posted on truth social, his calls to take the country back, is the same guy who said, "run to the capitol run, go there now. i'll meet you there. and he never did, of course. >> same guy who watched gleefully for several hours while violence was being let loose by rioters on the capitol. police officers being bludgeoned and just brutally, brutally hurt four later died that were there that day i want, though -- there's been a lot of, let's just say, amateur lawyering going on on news

networks over the week end. i want to bring in someone who knows what they're talking about, chuck rosenberg chuck, let's talk about what crimes could be -- donald trump could be charged with. i hear a lot of people say, "oh, this is much to do about nothing. all i will say is, when i held events running for federal office, if i had 20 volunteers together and somebody bumped the barbecue from sonny's barbecue, if i didn't report that $30, $50, $60 in kind contribution, that was a violation if it's serious enough, i could be charged for a federal crime in this case, you have cohen making a $130,000 hush money payment to a porn star at donald

trump's request. he's repaid double, not by the campaign but by the trump organization none of this is reported on fec reports. when i hear people saying this is much to do about nothing, i think about all the members of congress i served with, understanding every single one of them would be charged and sent to jail had they done this. >> joe, it's a fair point. let's be clear, this is a state investigation so it'd be a state crime, not a federal one, but i take your point. here's how it works. it's not the hush money payment that's illegal that may seem improper, it may be vile, but it's not illegal. what would be illegal is the way you treat that hush money payment on your books and records. so if you're really paying the money to stormy daniels to have her remain quiet about an extramarital affair, then you characterize that payment on your books and records as a legal retainer for mr. cohen, those are false business

entries. new york state has made that a crime, a misdemeanor now, if you commit that crime in order to conceal some other crime, to the point, joe, the election reporting, that can be a felony under state law could be a misdemeanor coupled with a felony, all related to the same operative acts, falsely characterizing the hush money payments as a legal retainer that's the offense >> michael cohen got sent to jail for being part of this scheme why? >> well, he pled guilty to, i believe, eight felonies under federal law. not just this scheme there was a tax scheme he'd made false statements so there were more and more serious offenses to which he pled guilty. this is a narrower piece of what he pled guilty to. now, he had an integral role, if

he is to be believed, in the trump hush money, false bookkeeping caper, but cohen pled guilty to many more offenses that was in the federal system, not in the state system. >> you say if he is to be believed would this case concern you if you were bringing it as a prosecutor >> you know, yes and no. i mean, look, if you want to know how libraries work, you talk to lie brainia brainians. want to know how crimes work, talk to criminals. there is nothing unusual about having a criminal as a witness at another criminal trial. the key, joe, is how well you can corroborate that person's testimony. are there other witnesses? are there other documents? the answer here, based on public reporting, seems to be yes, that there's plenty of corroboration for what michael cohen will testify to at trial. that said, you have to be careful when you put a witness on the stand who has a motive

for revenge. michael cohen has said many times he would like to get donald trump in one way or another. >> mm-hmm. >> so does it concern me yes. have i done things like that sure how do i do it carefully and with corroboration. >> jon meacham, at the end of the day, the overriding principle seems to be that no man is above the law donald trump has seemed to be above the law, not only during his presidency, but also during his life are you going to be wringing your hands if he ends up only getting charged with a misdemeanor and they don't have the felony count stick, or do we still believe that no man is above the law, regardless of whether they're an ex-president or an accountant or a lawyer or a construction worker? >> well, you know, you think about it, there are two different tracks here. there's the legal track that you and chuck are talking about, and there's the political track. as much as we would like those two to be intwined, they aren't.

and so one of the great questions for the next couple of weeks, and mika eluded to it at the top, is, a, whether this has led to yet another example of trump-inspired political violence that's one question as this process goes forward the other is, in this polarized time, does it matter politically? legally, it's a different thing. politically, does anybody who is on the fence about donald trump, and i suspect there's a lot of room on the fence at this point, i would hope, will this matter to them? historically speaking and sort of sitting back and looking at it, what's troubling is that we're at a -- we've long been at a point where nothing seems to

matter facts and traditional rules of gravity, traditional codes within american politics don't apply here i was thinking this weekend about, there's a line in thomas payne. i can't remember if it is "common sense" or the "american crisis," but both before yorktown in america, the law is king. the king is not the law. the law is king. that's true in that sphere politically, it's an unfolding and open question. >> so speaking to reporters in orlando yesterday, house speaker kevin mccarthy was asked about trump's calls for protests and urged americans to stay calm but he also gave a full-throated defense of the former president and condemned the manhattan d.a.'s investigation take a look. >> i don't think people should protest this, no and i think president trump, if

you talk to him, he doesn't believe that either. i mean, i think the thing that you may misinterpret when president trump talks, when someone says they can protest, he's probably referring to my tweet, educate people about what is going on. he's not talking in a harmful way, and nobody should nobody should harm one another in this. and this is why you should really make law equal. if that was the case, nothing would happen here. lawyer after lawyer after lawyer will tell you this is the weakest case out there you see the supreme court. you see the statue out there of the lady sitting there with a blindfold on and a scale it's supposed to be equal to all in america the last thing we want or have is somebody putting their thumb on the scale simply because they don't agree with somebody else's political view that is what's wrong, and that's what infuriates people this will not hold up in court >> let's go to jackie alemany,

who is following republican reaction here. to touch on what kevin mccarthy said right there, you know, it defies logic, given that donald trump is using similar language that led up to the january 6th insurrection, that led to death and destruction and an attempt to subvert our democracy so i guess if he can completely ignore that part of trump's legacy, he might then have an opinion that, perhaps, he's not actually trying to incite any type of violence but what are you hearing in terms of other republican reaction, and how do they handle this balance between supporting trump and what's potentially coming >> yeah, mika. well, you know, republicans, i think, find themselves -- are having a lot of deja vu right now. they were headed into this gop retreat in orlando, hoping to focus on bigger picture policy items, like the budget that's

due in coming weeks. making sure the u.s. government doesn't breach the debt limit. of course, the timing of this deeply complicates their agenda, especially as kevin mccarthy got out in front of this and said, now, he was going to direct congressional committees, specifically the weaponization committee, to investigate if federal funds have been used to conduct this investigation but i will say, the democrats are also privately expressing the same kind of concerns that kevin mccarthy raised just there, questions about why alvin bragg has decided to potentially bring these charges now after previous prosecutors passed on this and after there's most likely going to be no new detail r s revealed but republicans, once again, regardless of the facts here, and the fact as chuck eloquently

raised and laid out, that this is a potential felony. they're rallying to his defense either way the polling, though, we can get into this more later on, the polling doesn't necessarily bode well for them. i think that republicans are going to find themselves in an unusual situation for the first time, where actually rallying to the former president's defense isn't necessarily doing much for them as their constituents, as they already started to see in the past midterm election. >> yeah. charlie sykes, it's fascinating that kevin mccarthy would look at donald trump's tweet and say he doesn't want people to protest. when he is using language like january 6th, protest, and take your country back. he wasn't the only republican seeming to incite violence again, we talked about it daily here, this is a partythat seem

hell bent on scaring off swing voters in wisconsin, michigan, washington, the atlanta suburbs, charlotte, all the places you need to win to win presidential elections. here they are, once again, falling right along, trying to undermine the rule of law, supporting a former president who seems to be inciting violence what's it mean for the republican party moving forward? >> well, the worst is yet to come so let's try out this counterfactual when kevin mccarthy and others are asked about this indictment, they could have said, well, you know, no one is above the law. let's let the criminal justice system work it out what is most important is to make sure that justice is done let's wait and see because we don't know whether there is going to be an indictment, what the indictment is going to say. they could have taken that position, right? instead, once again, offered a chance for an off-ramp, they would not take it. these republicans had a chance to take an off-ramp after

"access hollywood. they had a chance after the incident with the president of ukraine. they half an off-ramp after january 6th. they had an off-ramp after this former president tweeted out or put out as a social media bleat that he ought to terminate the constitution to put him back into power they keep falling back into line what they ought to recognize is this may be, in many ways, the weakest case, but it's perhaps only the first this is a long story, and it's about to get longer. so, you know, kevin mccarthy has to think what happens, given his full-throated defense of this, if there is, in fact, violence what happens when the second indictment comes down, the third indictment comes down, what is the cumulative weight of all this so far, we've seen nothing than what we've seen over and over and over again, which is kevin

mccarthy's willingness to do donald trump's bidding, to intervene in a case he has no business intervening in, and other republicans rallying around this will help trump in the short term but as you mentioned, in the long term, this continues to be toxic. >> and it continues to help them lose if you look at what's happened over the past one, two, three, four, five, six elections, reverend al another off-ramp was listening to the phone call to the georgia secretary of state i mean, what more do you need if you are a republican who has to make a decision about donald trump, who is potentially facing an invitdictment this week if this is the weakest case, look at the others in line behind this one that appear to be, according to legal experts, much stronger. >> what a lot of us are not remembering is that we had a case involving a personal relationship with a woman that did go to court around finances,

called john edwards. >> yes, he was indicted. >> it was a different situation, but it was using campaign money in a way that was improper to cover a situation and handle a situation of an extramarital affair so before people start rallying around this, democrats didn't do that with john edwards, who had been a vice presidential candidate. >> right. >> much different circumstances. but i think that this may be, according to legal experts, which i couldn't question -- >> well, john edwards was flying high and doing great his political career and, legally, everything came to a screeching halt. >> exactly. >> when that came out. >> exactly. >> for trump, they just keep turning away, fellow republicans. they seem to think that he'll somehow get around every legal challenge against him. >> rather than -- >> maybe he will. >> rather than asking, should we get around >> right. >> even if this is deemed the

weakest case, i'd argue that as one who has known donald trump, as you and joe has, this is the heaviest case for him. >> huh. >> here's a guy -- i'll never forget, you, joe and i sat in this building upstairs, kind of audience that working, talk about he was running for president. i said, you have to remember he was an outsider, out of borough guy in new york, looked down by the new york elite, and now he feels he's got them. when i left the studio and i went to a board meeting of national action network, i got a call from donald trump he and i fight he said, al, i saw you on "morning joe" this morning you were right, you know me. we've both by outsiders, and i've arrived now, the elite that he thought he had proven is looking at him saying, we told you he was nothing. we told you that he would do things like this we told you he would desecrate the thing that he was the one that took out ads, calling for the death of the central park

five, falsely accused of raping a white woman, that he'll be going possibly in the building they faced, and be arraigned in the same building while my good friend jon meacham was reading thomas payne, i was reading the bible, what a man shows, he shall also reap. >> kevin mccarthy appeared to be threatening the manhattan district attorney's office there, looking to investigate investigators, potentially cutting off funding. that's a point we should return to as the morning and days go on i think to jon meacham's point, there is a difference here there is political and legal they are both viable i do think there is concern. the democrats i've spoken to, including senior members of the white house, who do fear because this case is weakest, if it is brought first, it will be -- it'll allow trump to paint this

as inlegitimate, weak, and suggest all the other cases against him are, as well that's something they're worried about. we know each case will be treated, legally, on their own merits, joe. the politics of this do get confusing. i think there are some republicans who are fully expecting that donald trump's poll numbers will go up after this indictment, that he will be able to paint this as a witch hunt it might even call some republicans to think twice about challenging him because he will solidify his grip on the party that much further and animate his base that said, it's a very different story for a potential general election it's hard to imagine any sort of indictment being at all help for donald trump come november 2024 the trick is, will republicans see that between now and then? >> you know, i think my over/under for indictments is t 2.5. i'd be shocked if he stayed at this one

georgia, there's compelling evidence there same with the documents at mar-a-lago the obstruction of the retrieval of those documents i just have to say right here, though, i understand about politics i understand about the law but i don't understand people saying, well, we need to worry about politics and maybe avoid a possible indictment. the law is the law, and politics is politics. if there is any prosecutor -- i understand prosecutors can be very political, but if there's any judge, if there's any prosecutor that's going, "well, gee, i don't know, what would this look like," instead of looking at what the law is, they're not doing their duty and i do agree with you, jonathan lemire. when you have members of the first branch of government talking about defunding the third branch of government because they don't like the fact

that one of their political players may be indicted, that's really deeply disturbing charlie sykes and i had a conversation very early in the trump administration when trump started attacking federal judges charlie said, "i know federal judges, and i know that federal judges, whether" -- well, let's talk about this one second, charlie. it is important revisiting we talked, i think it was in february of 2017 you told me that in your conversation with federal judges, it didn't matter if they were federalist society, federal judges, or whether they were card-carrying members of the aclu that became federal judges. an attack against one federal judge was an attack against all federal judges donald trump paid for that for four years. >> right. >> for his lack of respect for

judicial independence. i've got to say, when kevin mccarthy and other people, mtg and other people start talking about defunding the courts, defunding the justice department, they're making -- i believe they're making the same mistake. most judges, they actually care a h ell of a lot more about the rule of law than they do politics. >> this is a really important point. it's gotten so much worse since we had that conversation what we're seeing are the fruits of years long attempts by donald trump and his supporters to delegitimize the justice system. jonathan's point is very, very important. you have the former president who is talking about possibly supporting violence. then you have the speaker of the house internalizing the idea that obstructing justice is part of the mission of the house republican party, actually threatening a prosecutor, actually trying to intimidate a

prosecutor from going ahead with the rule of law. look, it's one thing to attack individual federal judges, but when you are undermining the entire concept of an independent judiciary, undermining the entire concept of the rule of law and whether or not you should be subject to it, you know, this has to cross idealogical lines. disturb people who recognize, what happens if donald trump now launches a jihad, not just against prosecutors but also against juries, against judges, against the entire system? because this is just the beginning. you know what he is going to do down in georgia. you know what he is going to do when the department of justice comes forward, when judges rule against him. so this really is going to be a long-term challenge about whether or not we have an independent judiciary and whether or not we have an independent justice system, and whether or not we have a political party that is rejecting the concept of the rule of law when it comes to their political leaders. >> and, mika, let me follow up

with what jonathan said, as well and what charlie was saying. make no mistake, make no mistake, this may rev up the base of donald trump for a couple of weeks, just like mar-a-lago did for a couple of weeks, but he loses voters in wisconsin. he loses voters in michigan. he loses voters in pennsylvania. he loses voters in atlanta he loses swing voters when not only he gets indicted, but when the republican party starts talking about declaring war against the rule of law, declaring war against judges, declaring war against the judiciary. this has never worked for them, and it is not going to work for them now as jonathan said, yeah, maybe donald trump gets more support from the republicans because republicans just love losing they just love losing. i've decided, i'm going to try

to stop reasoning with them. they love losing if you love losing, keep on losing but they're going to put themselves in a position where they're hurt more in the general election by rallying around an indicted guy if he is indicted two, three times, the more he is indicted, the more fervor for him, the greater they lose. it's just that simple. for god's sake, this is not hard >> just think about it mccarthy says this is the weakest case out there think about that he's referring to the fact that there are many others. this is just one that's just right there. that's a very weak position to be coming from when you're defending a man who is maybe four or five huge legal challenges ahead of him. chuck rosenberg, if you can talk about the law and the justice system, do prosecutors and judges think about protests or

media coverage or politics when they are doing their jobs? >> no, no, no and no, mika because i think the precision of language is important, let me also draw another distinction for you. people keep referring to the new york case as the weakest case. to me, as a former prosecutor, weak means a case where the evidence is thin or perhaps you don't have a reasonable probability of conviction. what i think they might mean is that it's the less serious case. and how serious a case is is reflected in how it is categorized or classified. in this case, under new york state law, it's a misdemeanor. it's admittedly less serious how serious a case is is also sort of explained or demonstrated by how it is sentenced. murder sis a very serious case and people often go to jail for a very long time, if not for life falsifying business records under new york state law is a less serious case, so the

penalties are less severe. it doesn't make it a weak case if you look at it from the perspective of a prosecutor, you bring your case when it is ready. so it would be a political decision to bring it too soon for some other purpose or to wait for some other purpose. if the case is ready, and as the elected prosecutor in manhattan, you believe it is an appropriate charge, you bring it it may be less serious than the other cases out there, but that doesn't make it weaker. >> yeah, i get that. >> jon meacham, i'm curious, you'd said before the election of 2020 and also 2022 that we might be in the 1850s historically i'm wondering where we are right now. is this more like 1868, 1869, as we decide whether people who broke the law are turning

against the country, actually have to face justice >> it is a lot like reconstruction and the debates over actual accountability for having taken up arms against the constitutional order and i think, to go to your point about republicans liking to lose, this is not a partisan point, i think that's the only way to get out of this the fever is not just going to break. we're not going to wake up one morning, talk about the "wizard of oz" when everything is in color, suddenly there are going to be animatronic founding fathers talking again. republicans have to keep losing until they break themselves of this culti personality to have the speaker of the house sit up there and play legal pundit and to have the former president of the united states once again call for protests and

violence protest. i don't agree with speaker mccarthy the words themselves are bad enough the only way to do this, the only way to get a functioning two-party system again is to defeat the trump party as lincoln said, all men act on incentive. what is the incentive of all the folks we are talking about the quasi establishment republicans, the aspiring republican political class, they want votes because they want power and position you take away the votes, they don't have power, they don't have position. they will change their behavior. our talking to each other about this is not going to do it they have to keep losing >> well -- >> mika, i have to say, it's a hell of a losing streak. 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021,

2022 you would think they would have been broken of their bad habits by now as far as supporting a guy that wants to, quote, terminate the constitution >> yeah. >> they haven't. >> they haven't. >> jon is right, i guess they keep losing until some republican says, "hey, i've got an idea. let's turn our back on the guy that's been responsible for us having the longest losing streak over the past 30 years." only then can the republican party start rebuilding and give themselves a shot at winning elections. >> what's left of it. >> they need to turn their back on that past. >> yeah. jon meacham, jackie alemany, charlie sykes, thank you, all. chuck rosenberg, we'll see you later in the morning we appreciate your analysis, all of you thank you so much. still ahead on "morning joe," we are marking 20 years since the u.s. invasion of iraq. plus, the latest from ukraine after russian president

vladimir putin's surprise visit to mariupol, in his first trip to the occupied territory since the war began. it comes as putin hosts china's leader who arrived in moscow just moments ago, seeking to cement beijing's role as a global peacemaker. we'll discuss the diplomatic implications with retired navy admiral james stavridis and president of the counsel on foreign relations, richard haass. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. research shows people remember ads with a catchy song. so to help you remember that liberty mutual customizes your home insurance, here's a little number you'll never forget.

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it's 40 past the hour. welcome back turning now to the war in ukraine. russian president vladimir putin visited the russian occupied city of mariupol, located at the southern edge of ukraine's donetsk region video from saturday shows putin driving through the city, touring reconstruction sites and more in over a year of fighting, it was putin's first trip to the territory capturedby his forces, and it's the closest he's ventured to the front lines. meanwhile, chinese leader xi jinping is in moscow right now as he prepares to meet with russian president vladimir putin. he touched down moments ago, and the visit is putin's most notable diplomatic engagement with another country since he launched his invasion. russian media claims both leaders will sign a total of ten documents, including two joint statements, one on comprehensive partnership and the other on economic cooperation, up until

the year 2030. joining us now, former supreme allied commander of nato s, retired four star admiral, james stavridis. president of the council on foreign relations, richard haass. joe? >> richard, taken together, you think that putin's visit to mariupol, as well as xi's visit to moscow, sends an ominous message to ukraine and the world. what is it >> the message is not peace is at hand. the fact that putin is physically there, so personally associating himself with mariupol and crimea the day before, essentially, you know, this is not a man, shall we say, on the brink of peace talks. this is someone saying, these are russian territories from his point of view. china, you know, xi jinping is flying in. it's been 13 months, 14 months since xi jinping closely linked himself to vladimir putin. china may posture, joe, talking

about peace, but there's no way, based on its 12-point plan or anything else, china is going to be a force for peace here. what this suggests to me, this reinforces the prediction that this is likely to be a long war. >> certainly no time soon. but this war continuing for a long time is not in the best interest, admiral, of either of those men or their countries i'm just wondering, i think maybe i always go one layer too deep on these things, but i would think if putin were in a position of weakness before xi was coming down and thought xi was going to pressure him to move toward peace, the first thing he would do would be to visit mariupol and say, "don't even think about asking me to negotiate back the land bridge between russia and crimea. what are your thoughts >> i think that makes sense. you know, i just happened to be in san antonio, texas, today i'm a couple hundred yards from

the alamo. we have to remember that mariupol is the alamo of this war. this is where ukrainian commandos held out until the very end putin was forced to essentially destroy the city in order to conquer it look at the optics of the visits, joe. he goes there effectively in the middle of the night so the cameras don't pick up the blasted landscape all around him. he's driving himself, you know, trying to show he's a manly man, i guess. it's just a pathetic send up if you stop and think about it. so flashback a year, he's whispering, sipping vodka, tellinghis best friend forever president xi, "hey, i'm going to be in kyiv in two to three days." well, here we are, 14 months later, and he's like a criminal returning to the scene of the crime, as the ukrainians have been saying. it's a real downfall for putin,

frankly. but is he trying to signal his intransigence, his defiance in this moment in the face of the arrest warrant issued for him just a couple of days ago? yes, he is the question is, as richard says, is xi really going to throw down 100% here i think the thing to watch is whether china begins sending significant arms shipments to russia that's what putin desperately wants. i don't think xi is going to fall into that trap. >> richard haass, you tweeted over the weekend about the iraq war. you said the u.s. government, my boss at the time, colin powell, did not lie about wmds the word lying involves intent we got it wrong. we misinterpreted intelligence and thought saddam was hiding his wmds, when he was hiding his lack of them no more, no less you received quite the response

on social media, richard i will say, of course, as you wrote later, the iraq war was an absolute disaster, a war of choice that was a disaster going back to the time, you had the director of the cia jumping up and down saying it was a slam dunk, that iraq had weapons of mass destruction you had overwhelming majorities of both republicans and democrats in the house and in the senate supporting this war bush actually put together a large coalition to go in looking back, a lot of that seems to be forgotten. bottom line here, the bush administration got it terribly wrong, horrifically wrong. what are the lessons 20 years later from that debacle? >> joe, i think it is useful to distinguish between the wmd issue and the decision to go to war. people did think iraq has weapons of mass destruction.

if you got a hammer, everything looks like a nail. almost confirmation bias every piece of intel that came in, people saw through the framing of the assumption he had weapons of mass destruction. even so, it was still a mistake to go to war we had other options it simply wasn't worth it. i thought the idea we were going to bring democracy to iraq was a preposterous pipe dream. >> so can i ask you, richard, what was the -- take us back what was the absolute obsession after 9/11 to link saddam hussein, who was the most blood-thirsty leader, who killed more arabs than anybody else in history, but what was the obsession linking saddam hussein to september 11th, when there just wasn't the evidence there >> well, some people were looking for an excuse to go to war against iraq, so there was either the -- >> why >> -- trying to link them, or

there was the fear he had wmd and he'd use it or give it to terrorists i thought it was a stretch i thought the real reason is after 9/11, people wanted to do something big and bold they wanted to transform the middle east. this is what the president wanted this was most of his aides probably cheney was the one person who had -- the vice president had a narrow security focus. back to your original country, if you have to invade a country, this may sound silly, but you better understand it the united states did not understand the demographic and political and cultural basis of iraq you need to think through what it's going to take to suk sccee, not just to win the battle up front. how do you secure the peace? donald rumsfeld had an inadequate force to do that. you know, the big winner of this was iran what we did was made the region safer for iranian influence.

we alienated americans from government and foreign policy. where you began this show, a lot of the populism in the country can be linked to the iraq war. clearly the isolation of it can be this is a classic case, not just a fwar of choice as i dubbed it but it was overreach that was the big lesson. the united states cannot go about the world, to quote john quincy adams, or maybe i'll put on my jon meacham hat for a minute, in a search of monsters to destroy we overreached the region. the united states, the world paid a real price for it. >> to further richard's point, right now, we are seeing a bipartisan group of lawmakers trying to claw back some of the authority to declare war from the executive branch pointing to this 20-year mark of the iraq invasion. admiral stavridis, want to get your thoughts on the anniversary. here we are 20 years later

what you think about when you reflect on the conflict, but also where you stand with america's ability to wage war today? >> first, as always in these scenarios, it's important to put yourself back in that moment when these decisionis were made. i was in the pentagon on 9/11. the aircraft struck 150 feet to the right of my office i'm very lucky to be here today. there was a huge emotion in the country. i think that richard is right, that emotion translated into a series of policy decisions that haunt us today but it is important to put it in that context, of the emotion of the moment and then, secondly, the real question is, what does this tell us about the limits of american power in the world i think we have to recognize that, as fareed zakaria has said, we're not the sole

superpower but we're not a declinist nation either. others have risen. we have to deal with that. we have returned to an era of real great power politics. it is a very different world than taking on this war of choice in iraq but avoiding the deeply dangerous idea of a war with china. that's why this meeting between xi jinping and vladimir putin, the leaders of autocratic nations, is so important for us to watch carefully this week and see what comes out of it >> all right. >> i want to ask you, admiral, just a balance if you could, talk about the tragedy of iraq we have well over 4,000 u.s. troops killed there. well over 100,000 iraqis killed from the violence that sprang from that war. i'm just curious, what was the cost to the united states long

term >> exactly as richard says, it is now being thrown at us as though it's a moral equivalent to what's happening in ukraine in other words, i often hear from not just people from the global south, brazil, nigeria, pakistan, india, but also europeans will say, "well, why is it so terrible that putin is invading ukraine after all, you invaded iraq. that's a real cost to us there are correct answers to that question that makes it different. >> what's your answer? what's your answer to that question >> yeah, my answer is, the moral equivalent would be if the united states decided to invade canada, annex it, absorb all of its mineral resources, took canadian children and moved them back to the united states. that's what russia is doing in ukraine. so dismiss that moral

equivalency. the point we have to continue to deal with as americans in the world is that we have to have humility about it. we need to recognize that nations are like people. they make mistakes the measure of any nation, just like the measure of any person, is how you come back after that mistake. and i think standing up to vladimir putin is the right thing to be doing now. we need to push aside that false moral equivalency. but, boy, i'm hearing a lot of that on my circuits. >> yeah. retired admiral james stavridis, thank you. richard haass, thank you, as well it's always good to see you both before we go to break, let's -- >> mika, let me really quickly talk about your dad. your dad would want us to talk about your dad right now because he was right your dad spent his entire life as a cold war hawk he offended people on the left because he really believed that the soviet union would be

defeated, not by detente, but by confrontation, and was always considered a warmonger, a wars and hawk, et cetera. a remarkable thing happened on the lead up to the iraq war. he said it was wrong he and brent skocroft were two men who stood alone. at least against the great foreign policy minds of official washington it caused them consternation, even in your own household. >> a little bit. >> with brothers but your dad was right so many of us on the other side, the overwhelming majority of us were wrong >> joe, it's interesting, how much more support there was mfo the 2003 iraq war, which history is going to be correctly brutal about in the assessment, opposed to the 1991 gulf war, when

saddam hussein inquaded kuwait that is analogous to vladimir putin. that's the analogy he took territory through force. he invaded a neighboring country. it's interesting, people say we need bipartisanship. we didn't have bipartisanship, much of it, in the gulf war. we had enormous amounts of bipartisanship in the iraq war, 2003 bipartisanship is not always a guarantee of correctness >> as we see today. >> yeah, it was really remarkable you're exactly right there wasn't as much bipartisanship in the '91 war. then you had democrats going into the second iraq war who were afraid to look like they did after the first iraq war that's why, despite all of the attacks that george w. bush took in 2004, you look back and you see that the democratic ticket in 2000 and in 2004, they all

supported the second iraq war. >> yes. >> again, mika, all the more extraordinary that your father, who was in the center of all of the action, he did not and warned people what would happen. >> i heard it. he was always right. coming up, nbc's vaughn hillyard joins us with a live report from outside mar-a-lago after the former president claimed on social media he'll be arrested this week and called on his supporters to protest. plus, a look at what republicans hope to avoid at their retreat in orlando, taking sides in the political fight between the former president and the florida governor there's that whole dynamic "morning joe" is coming right back

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it doesn't matter what side

of the issue you're on it doesn't matter if this is president trump or if it was a democrat it should be equal justice in america. stop going after people because you have political differences >> ah, kevin mccarthy with an interesting choice of words, considering the priorities of the republican house the house speaker and other republicans are now focused on the fairness of the justice system following donald trump's claim that he, the former president, will be arrested on tuesday. meanwhile, mike pence was pressed on the alleged hush money payments trump paid, maybe, to stormy daniels we'll show you what the former vice president had to say about that and we'll have a live report from beijing as the chinese president is meeting with vladimir putin for the first time since russia invaded ukraine. welcome back to "morning joe. second hour now. it's monday, march 20th. jonathan lemire is still with us and joining the conversation this hour, we have attorney and contributing columnist for "the

washington post," george conway. and former u.s. attorney, chuck rosenberg, is back with us, as well before we turn to the former president and the potential indictment this week, let's start with a quick look at the headlines making news this morning. ubs is rescuing sweat suisse from the brink of collapse by buying the bank for $3.2 billion. this is the first mega-merger of two global banks since the 2008 financial crisis the deal was brokered by the swiss government over the weekend. the government will provide more than $9 billion to aid in some losses ubs may incur in the acquisition. "the wall street journal" reports depositors withdrew as much as $10 billion from credit suisse last week this after silicon valley and signature banks collapsed in the u.s. credit suisse has been plagued with issues over the past few years, including a string of

scandals and top management changes. and the department of justice is investigating tiktok's parent company byte dance for allegedly surveilling american citizens, including several technology-focused journalists. the investigation began late last week and is focused on the chinese company's admission in december that it had inappropriately obtained the data of american tiktok users, including two reporters. and emmanuel macron's french government faces several motions of no confidence after the president forced through a measure to raise the retirement age without a vote the deeply unpopular move to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 has been met by widespread protests around the country. more than 100 people were arrested in paris on saturday

after a demonstration by several thousand protesters against the reform turned violent. rail, air and school strikes are planned for later this week. however, the no confidence votes are not likely to pass given the deep political divisions within the french parliament. we'll keep following that. and now, back here to new york, where amid mounting legal troubles across multiple states, former president donald trump could be criminally charged for the first time as early as this week according to five senior officials familiar with the plans, cenfederal, state and lol law enforcement agencies are discussing security measures ahead of a possible indictment from the manhattan district attorney's office. this is in connection with a hush money payment the former president allegedly made to a porn star, stormy daniels, in the closing days of the 2016 campaign to keep her quiet about an

affair she claims to have had with trump back in 2006. trump denies having an affair with daniels or any wrongdoing although, we are told law enforcement's plans are precau precautionary. trump claimed over the weekend he'd be arrested on tuesday. in that same post, he called for protests to, quote, take back our nation, take our nation back today, a one-time legal adviser to one time trump attorney m costello will testify. michael cohen said he was asked to make himself available as a rebuttal witness to costello's testimony. cohen denied costello ever represented him. joe, is that a delay tactic or who knows? >> i mean, we don't know

george conway, we do know republicans are once again lining up behind the ex-president and doing their best to trash anybody associated with the justice department or any prosecutors or judges that might try to hold this president accountable, this ex-president accountable. what are your thoughts about the events that have happened over the last three days? >> well, i mean, the republicans are behaving like complete disgraces. the notion that -- they're basically saying that -- by saying that trump is being persecuted, they're essentially saying, you can't touch trump and trump is above the law whatever slack you might have wanted to cut a former president, that was gone after january 6th. this man is a criminal he's committed crime all his life, lied allmy daniels thing s something he cooked up the notion that cohen is going to be discredited on it is

ridiculous given the paper trail. we see the checks signed by donald trump it is hard to say he is being picked on for paying $130,000 in hush money to a porn star and concealing that and using a straw donor, which was cohen, to do that, and saying he's being persecuted somehow when no one has ever done that it is completely ridiculous. >> chuck, we talked last hour about the case itself, so let's take a quick leap and just say, if an indictment does come down, whether it is this week or next or sometime in the future, walk viewers through what that will look like. there's a lot of confusion, concern, as to how much of it we will actually see in the legal system there in new york city. he's a former president of the united states. what will we -- how will we be arrested how will he with charged will we see donald trump in handcuffs or perhaps a donald trump mug shot walk us through it. >> it's good to talk about the procedure, jonathan. first, i don't any he'll be

arrested, nor, frankly, do i think he ought to be arrested. let me explain that. the reason you arrest people is because they're dangerous or they might flee or because the you're going to move for their detention after they've been charged. i can't imagine the government will move for mr. trump's detention, or even if they did, a judge would grant it so there is another way of getting somebody in front of a court. you ask them to self-surrender that's what happened in the weisselberg case and with other cases brought in the manhattan district attorney's office connected to trump and some of his minions. i don't expect an arrest i would be surprised by an arrest if he is charged, i imagine he'll be given the opportunity to self-surrender. that means you go to court you get processed, fingerprinted and photographphotographed, andr before a judge so the judge can set timelines for the case the dates that motions are due the dates motions will be argued ultimately, a trial date

will we see him in handcuffs well, we have seen weisselberg escorted, for instance, by mar marshals when he was being processed. i don't like that practice, frankly, jonathan, and i don't think it is appropriate. the media likes it because it is a good shot, it's a good visual. i'm not sure, given that we are talking about a former president, that they can't make some other arrangement not so much for his privacy, but for his security >> absolutely. >> i'm not a fan of mr. trump, but i do care about the security of anybody who has been charged in the criminal justice system, as well as their dignity and the fairness with which they are treated. >> i would think in this case, it would be important to not unnecessarily make a scene having said that, again, leaping, if there is an indictment and he does not self-surrender, because maybe, perhaps, chuck, he believes that would be better for him

politically, what happens if he does not self-surrender? >> sure. it's a great question, mika. if he is given the opportunity and he foregoes it, law enforcement has no other option but to arrest him. by the way, the notion that he knew he was going to be arrested on tuesday makes absolutely no sense. you can imagine law enforcement officers don't tell people when they're planning on arresting them that'd put law enforcement officers in jeopardy if he refuses to self-vsurrende, he won't present himself in front of the court, he doesn't avail himself of that opportunity, they don't have much choice, do they >> all right the america first faction is slamming the manhattan district attorney while other republicans are raising issues with trump's calls for protests marjorie taylor greene wrote, supporters of former president trump, quote, are fed up with the two-tiered justice system, or rather injustice system in

america. other supporters took to fox news to react. >> just going after your political adversary in president trump isn't going to make you a pillar of virtue it is going to descend the rest of america into chaos. >> you can do whatever you want to trump but you can't do to bin there's a double standard. >> it's odd this would come out just the very next day after i revealed bank records which showed that the biden family, the president, in particular, hasn't been truthful with respect to his family receiving payments directly from the chinese communist party. it almost looks like it's an effort to detract. >> jonathan, that's just all pathetic it's all so pathetic sure, it's coincidence they're doing it now they've been talking about this for months prosecutors quit the d.a.'s

office because they said they had trump dead to center on charges, and bragg was too afraid to go after trump that happened before that clown even got to run whatever committee he is running right now. and rick scott saying, oh, well, you're going after trump but not biden, what does that even mean? the feds are investigating hunter biden we'll see what happens when it happens. again, this is all just more smoke. all smoke and mirrors. they want to do anything again, this party will do anything to degrade themselves and lower themselves to defend a failed reality tv star who has destroyed their party and destroyed their hopes of winning national elections. >> yeah, there is a federal investigation into hunter biden, joe. that's exactly right

we'll find out somehday where it leads. these are separate. >> guess what? if it leads to prosecution, so be it. no man is above the law. if it leads to prosecution, you won't have democrats coming on this show or other shows staying that the justice system is corrupt because hunter biden is being indicted, like republicans have been saying about donald trump who, again, has, let me say, done something, that if any one of those republicans had done, if they had paid off somebody in hush money $130,000 right before a federal election, it wouldn't have been alvin bragg going after 'em, it would have been the fec, and they would have been charged and probably put in jail. >> yeah. this is certainly another effort by republicans to muddy the waters it also shows, again, how much power trump currently has in the gop. we'll see if that wanes as the legal peril mounts right now, he's got it republicans are rushing to his

defense. in part because of a pressure campaign from people close to trump, from his campaign, from his advisers, leaning on republicans to say something, to condemn what we're seeing here from the manhattan d.a what should be noted, one republican has remained rather si silent that's governor ron desantis, who is trump's primary rival for the gop nomination next year, after the governor of his home state. nothing from desantis despite trump's efforts to get him to say something. we should circle back, though. we are hearing from kevin mccarthy this is a tweet that he put up over the weekend it's worth reading quickly here. he says, here we go again. an outrageous abuse of power by radical d.a. who lets criminals walk here's the important part. quote, i'm directing relevant committees to immediately investigate if federal funds are being used to subvert our democracy by interfering in elections with politically motivated prosecutions set aside the irony of the

republicans accusing election interference opposed to trump. but this is dangerous. kevin mccarthy says he is using the power of government to investigate. there's reporting this morning, joe and mika, beyond this, that republicans are thinking of bra s to capitol hill. this is what they accused democrats of. >> george conway, seriously, talk about the consequences of this on, first of all, the court system, the rule of law, but, of course, we all know, politically, also on the republican party, it's going to be more damage for republicans. >> right it's such garbage. i think it is important to remind the american public that the first prosecution of the stormy daniels matter was brought by donald j. trump u.s. department of ustice, against

michael cohen. they charged him with a campaign finance violation for fronting that money and then getting reimbursed by individual number one, donald trump. and they told -- the united states attorney for the southern district of new york told cohen's sentencing judge -- again, this was the trump justice department, federal justice department -- told the sentencing judge that these illegal campaign contributions and violation of the federal campaign act took place at the behest and the direction of donald j. trump. so it's completely and utterly ridiculous, the notion that, somehow, this is a selective prosecution. if there is something wrong with this state prosecution now, in m my view, it's the fact it should have been brought as a federal prosecution at 12:01 p.m. on january 20th, 2021, when donald trump's presidential immunity expired. >> i don't think even with the

four-hour show, we have enough time to break down the hypocrisy there. let's bring in correspondent vaughn hillyard, live outside mar-a-lago let's start with michael cohen and questions about his credibility in all this. >> reporter: right i think this is actually a perfect jumping off point from george here. when we're talking about the prosecutor's case against michael cohen, there was evidence that the public never had access to because michael cohen pled guilty. it is largely from the sentencing memo that we are able to read some tea leaves into what type of evidence prosecutors may have been ready to bring forward against michael cohen in that case but when we're talking about the credibility of michael cohen, who is the key witness here, you're sttalking about somebody who federal prosecutors said had a pattern of deception outlining his history over years of lying ultimately, he also pled guilty

to lying before congress, purging himself. he also -- a judge in march of 2020, when he appealed the length of his prison sentence, a judge wrote at the time, quote, as the government's memorandum in opposition makes clear, cohen made material and false statements in his post senesen sentencing proffer sessions. to note, michael cohen pushes back hard, saying he's testified for hundreds of hours at this point to federal prosecutors, in front of congress, to robert mueller, and now with the manhattan district attorney. but you are going to be seeing today, likely, robert costello at the debehest of trump's attorneys, go before this grand jury, with the expectation he will rebut some of michael cohen's testimony. who is robert costello in this puzzle he was a former legal adviser to michael cohen, somebody that after michael cohen's house was raided by the fbi in 2018, robert costello sent an email to

michael cohen saying, quote, sleep well you have friends in high places. later, it was referenced that it was donald trump he represented st ed steve bann is currently representing rudy giuliani robert costello continues to have deep ties to the maga world here for michael cohen, there's a reason that the manhattan district attorney has him on standby, ready to come back in before that grand jury here later this afternoon to potentially rebut costello's own testimony. >> vaughn hillyard, thank you very much for that insight still ahead on "morning joe," we go live to baghdad on the 20-year anniversary of the u.s. invasion of iraq. plus, china's president is in moscow this morning for meetings with russian president vladimir putin surrounding the war in ukraine,

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with its forms and submit the application. go to getrefunds.com to learn more. eight seconds to shoot for creighton. five now off the dribble, it's a three-point attempt. it's a three-point make. creighton has done it. punches its sweet 16 ticket for the second time in three years >> michigan state's only made two threes, but 16 of 19 at the free-throw line. the skturnover walker comes in and he scores! mr. march, tom izzo, takes michigan state back to the sweet 16 >> i mean, they are clips of marquette and baylor being bounced from the tournament. so many great teams bounced from thetournament over the past several days jonathan lemire, what a weekend. i've got to say, mika, though,

not surprised at all she, of course, can show you her bracket. she has princeton and fau owls in the sweet 16. >> of course. >> once again, she's right >> sorry, guys. >> yeah, mika is far ahead of me in the "morning joe" bracket competition. it's early i'm hoping for a comeback. my final four is pretty well busted you're right, joe -- >> everybody's is. >> -- we had another pair of march madness upsets yesterday the men's ncaa tournament field is whittled down to its final 16 the sweet 16 number six, creighton, was perfect from the free-throw line and sizzled from the three-point line they outed baylor. and michigan state, of course, a an emotional ride after the terrible shooting there a few weeks ago. they win and upended second seeded marquette to send tom izzo and the spartans into the

sweet 16 since their 2019 trip to the final four. gonzaga took down tcu for an eighth straight trip to the sweet 16 that's the longest streak in the country by far but, sadly, the magic ran out for farleigh dickinson, two days after becoming just the second number 16 seed ever to take down a number 1 they did so, upsetting purdue on friday well, fdu stumbled last night, losing to florida atlantic, 78-70. here's a look now at the updated bracket. that one is in better shape than mine many of the college basketball blue bloods missing from the sweet 16 this time around. that includes sixth seeded kentucky, which was beat by number three kansas state yesterday. and sent home early along with number five duke and top seeded kansas, who both lost on saturday number two ucla is still in the mix, as well as fourth seeded

uconn, which is back in the sweet 16 for the first time since 2014 and we're also watching number 15 princeton princeton reaching the sweet 16 for the first time since 1967. >> 56 years. >> after upsetting arizona and number seven missouri. eddie glaude jr. has not slept all weekend, i can report. the men's tournament resumes on thursday a lot of upsets. very unpredictable it's madness, joe. it's madness. >> yeah, this year more than ever, i mean, the top seeds hanging around, houston and alabama, who is the overall top seed, jonathan but so many upsets, just unbelievable i'm curious what your thoughts are. i mean, what are your takeaways after the first weekend? >> yeah, i think it shows what parody college basketball had this year. there really wasn't perceived to be a dominant team you're right, houston and

alabama, and we've covered sort of the shadow hovering over alabama's tournament bid right now. but they played well this weekend. they looked good i think it's just -- it has been -- it's been fun. it's been a fun weekend. as much as college basketball has ceded the spotlight, the regular season seems to matter a lot less than it used to, back in the '80s and '90s but it owns march. college basketball owns march. i already can't wait for the games to tip-off again on thursday all right. coming up, nbc news chief foreign correspondent richard engel joins us live from iraq, which is exactly where he was 20 years ago today at the start of the u.s. invasion of iraq. we'll have much more on that straight ahead on "morning joe." 50% off?! that deal's so good we don't even need an eight-time all-star to tell you about it. wait what? get it before it's gone on the subway app!

half past the hour moments ago, chinese leader xi jinping arrived in moscow ahead of meetings with russian

president vladimir putin xi is expected to be in moscow through wednesday. joining us now from beijing is nbc news foreign correspondent janis mackey frayer. janis, what is president xi hoping to get out of this trip to moscow? >> reporter: chinese officials are framing this trip as a visit for peace in the war in ukraine, but china's role as peacemaker is largely debatable here. it was just over a year ago that vladimir putin and xi jinping declared their partnership with no limits. the two are old friends. they have met more than 40 times. though the relationship itself, the china-russia relationship is more pragmatic in nature, it is largely unsentimental. it is based mainly on trade and this shared antipathy toward the u.s. and american foreign policy in making this trip now, xi jinping is, in many ways, trying

to bolster his credentials as a statesman. he brokered the recent deal between saudi arabia and iran. the question now is, will he then come up with something similar to reach a settlement in the war in ukraine that is debatable. ukrainian officials have already said they're not going to agree to anything where they have to give up any foot of territory. russia is saying that it is not going to agree to anything where they're not going to hang on to territory it's already captured. and the u.s. is saying that it is not going to get behind any sort of agreement that is going to be basically a ratification of russian conquest. we have to remember how china views this situation in ukraine. they don't call it a war they've never called it an invasion they see it more as a territorial dispute, and so it is unlikely that, while xi jinping may not leave moscow empty handed, it is probably not

going to be walking away with any assurances from putin that are going to lead to a meaningful settlement. there is, however, speculation that he's due to talk with president zelenskyy later this week >> hey, janis, it's jonathan and we know that vladimir putin, top of the agenda for him is the idea of weapons. to this point, china has held out on sending lethal military aid to moscow, though u.s. officials have been sounding the alarm consistently in recent weeks that they're at least thinking about it. what's the latest as to that deliberation that decision will have ramifications for how beijing is viewed by the west >> reporter: well, it would have huge implication, and it is why this visit is being so closely watched and so highly scrutinized. with the potential for these sort of discussions to take place. from what we understand, xi jinping is also going into this testing that friendship without limits, if that makes sense.

perhaps this will be the visit that draws some red lines for china in its relationship with russia vladimir putin coming off a weekend when he was driving through mariupol and had an arrest warrant to issue by the international criminal court beijing, until now, has been straddling thisrelationship, i the taking a position on the war in ukraine and, for the most part, not wanting to risk straining ties with russia heading into this, there is the sense that perhaps china is the one that holds leverage here, and so there may be some negotiating room again, whether it is going to lead to anything meaningful is highly debatable. >> nbc's janis mackey frayer, thank you very much for your reporting this morning as janis mentioned, all this comes on the backdrop of major news involving russia and ukraine. the international criminal court has issued an arrest warrant for

russian president vladimir putin, accusing him of being responsible for war crimes in ukraine. the warrant was issued friday, alleging putin oversaw the forced deportation of children from ukraine to russia, forbidden under international law. adding, there are reasonable groundsputin, quote, bears individual criminal responsibility after months of delays, turkey and hungary say they are committed to approving finland's bid for nato membership. on friday, both countries announced their support, removing the biggest barrier for finland to join the alliance despite policy changes, turkey and hungary say a decision on sweden's bid for membership will have to wait finland and sweden sent applications to join nato nearly a year ago, ending their policies of neutrality and military non-alignment in the wake of russia's invasion of ukraine. joining us now, president and

founder of the youeurasia group, ian bremmer. joe, i'll let you take it to ian, but there are a lot of moving parts here, including what olena zelensky was telling us about at the 30/50 summit in abu dhabi. she was talking about the children that were being abducted, ukrainian children taken from their families. >> yeah, a lotto talk about here ian, let's start, though, with the news about finland becoming a member of nato how important is that for nato, and how much of a thorn in vladimir putin's side will that be >> it's significant. i think it is an 800 kilometer border between finland and russia itself. it's very well defended. the fins spend well over 2% of gdp on their defense, unlike some other nato countries. of course, this is the exact opposite of what putin was trying to accomplish when he invaded ukraine. it was pushing back nato, not getting more countries in.

clearly, the fact that the turks and the hungarians, the outliers in nato, had been dragging their feet, with now fully on board. finland is more important from a security perspective than the swedes are nothing personal, swedes that is not a happy piece of backdrop news for putin today. >> so your take on the icc issuing arrest warrants for vladimir putin for war crimes? >> i would put it in the context of putin traveling to mariupol this weekend, where, of course, many of those war crimes were committed. this is a message from putin to the united states, a message to the ukrainians, i'm going nowhere. i'm not prepared to give up on one inch of the territory i'm presently taking this icc arrest warrant for war crimes means nothing to me now, to be clear, joe, you probably know, the russians, the united states and china are not members. the 123 members of the icc

a strong majority of the world community. but not in the countries we're talking about right now, they don't recognize the authority. it is a bit problematic for biden to say, yeah, we're very glad they did it but, of course, we wouldn't recognize it if it were about us or our allies but putin is responsible for these war crimes the fact that he is, and the fact he made the trip to mariupol, literally hours before xi jinping is making a trip to moscow also says a lot about the level of impunity that he feels and the willingness of xi jinping, second most powerful country in the world that he represents, supporting him, embracing him, and now about to talk about negotiations, which the ukrainians, of course, have zero interest in at this point >> i'm wondering, ian, if also that trip to mariupol might not be a message to xi, who, along with modi and along with erdogan, have been quietly pressuring vladimir putin to consider a possible peace deal.

>> i think they are prepared to push him privately and very soon publicly in the case of xi jinping to talk about a peace deal, to talk about negotiations but those negotiations are going to look nothing like the 10-point plan that president zelenskyy has put out, which he said he's willing to discuss no, no, no we're talking about a potential cease-fire, where the russians would be able to continue to occupy the illegally annexed territories that they are presently in some 13% of ukraine's total territory. behind the scenes, the russians have been going around to europe saying, "hey, when pi xi jinpi calls for negotiations and vladimir putin says we're happy to do that, if the ukrainians say no, china is going to put their finger on the scale and provide weapons. there's pressure on you. "putin is feeling in his direct

diplomacy with those involved, putin has acted more confident than i've seen him since the first months of the war. >> ian, let me ask this next question keeping in mind what a law professor told me in a jurisprudence class, you have to separate out what is to what ought to be. when people are talking about the possible deal at the end of this ukrainian war, in the west certainly, they want to talk about what ought to be from all the people you talk to day in, day out, in your pos position, what does a settlement look like if we have, let's say, another six months to a year to 18 months of stalemate >> first, i don't think we see a settlement i think the question is whether or not both forces are exhausted and, therefore, not able to take more territory, either back if you're the ukrainians or from ukraine if you're the russians that's not a settlement.

so i think you could end up with something that feels like a frozen conflict, where the russians have a little less territory than they're occupying today over the ukrainian offensive which i suspect will allow them to take some more territory. the artillery and ammunition problem they've been complaining about looks to have been quietly resolved they should be able to hit back against russia in relatively short order. but there's no negotiation that's going to lead to a peace. what that means is, irrespective of how much of ukrainian territory the ukrainians can get back, russia is not going to be treated like a normal country again. again, the fact that we're talking about war crimes, that putin would be arrested if he were to travel to any of the 123 countries that are members of the international criminal court, that means that he and his regime are perceived as dead enders they have nowhere to go but back into a corner.

of course, in that environment, the willingness to continue to fight is very high the willingness to continue to repress their own people, under any circumstances, is incredibly high that's the concern ukraine, whether or not ukraine gets back most or all of their territory, russia will lose on the global stage in the same way they've just lost on finnish nato membership, they are going to lose in terms of their diplomatic relations, their security relations, and their economic relations with every advanced, industrial country in the world that's the opposite of what putin wanted the same putin who said the collapse of the soviet union was the greatest humiliation for the 20th century >> ian, we should note, you mentioned that putin would be at risk of arrest if he were to travel to one of the international criminal court countries. the host of the g20 this year, where putin could theoretically attend, india, not part of the icc. that'd perhaps not be a risk to him there.

let's talk about -- you said the ukraine counteroffenscounteroff there's ammunition worries that may have dissipated. this may happen in the next few weeks. ukraine desperately also pushing for fighter jets we saw two nato countries last week opt to start sending them that way poland and slovakia. what's the latest you're hearing as to whether the united states and other western allies may change suit? >> no change in u.s. poll polic not an issue for months. the migs won't perform well against the russians, but the ukrainians know how to fly them, which is a help. there is no ability for the ukrainians to fly f-16s for a minimum of six months. what is critical is the ammunition in order for them to launch the offensive, counteroffensive, they need 750,000 rounds of ammunition apparently, most of that is now on its way to ukraine. in the coming weeks, we should actually see that counteroffensive begin

>> so, ian, you had an insight on vladimir putin who has been, obviously, very hard to read over the last year and several months i'm curious, you had said earlier that he was seeming more confident than he has been in a long time. what do you put that down to does he think he can outlast the west, grind down the ukrainians? >> i think there are two big points here. one is the fact that xi jinping is making a three-day state visit to come and see him. just a few months ago, september, the shanghai cooperation organization, xi jinping was pressuring putin, and putin was forced to admit that the chinese have concerns this feels like a much better alignment between china and russia in part, that comes after these unprecedented hard line statements that xi jinping made directly against the united states just a couple weeks ago that's part of it. secondly, putin is also getting the news from the united states. increasingly, trump and others

on the republican side that are running for the presidency, are wavering in their level of support for ukraine, are saying that this is a world wear iii threat he thinks americans are becoming much more divided, and it matters a lot to russia's ability to outlast nato in this war. >> all right ian bremmer, thank you very much for your insight this morning. we appreciate it. up next, we are reflecting on 20 years since the start of the iraq war, with nbc news chief foreign correspondent richard engel. "morning joe" is coming right back ♪breeze driftin' on by...♪ ♪...you know how i feel.♪ you don't have to take... [coughing] ...copd sitting down. ♪it's a new dawn,...♪ ♪...it's a new day,♪ it's time to make a stand. ♪and i'm feelin' good.♪ start a new day with trelegy. no once-daily copd... ...medicine has the power to treat copd...

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♪ call one eight hundred, eight million joining us live from baghdad nbc news chief foreign correspondent richard engel. he was in the city when the first air strikes rained down 20 years ago. richard? >> reporter: it is hard to believe that it is 20 years since the start of the war people who are watching the war back then probably remember this square it became iconic because it was here that the giant statue of saddam hussein was pulled down by iraqis and u.s. troops. this is the only thing that remains of that statue just a tiny fragment of the base there's no plaque, no commemorations today i was here at the time for people who haven't been hearing much about iraq they

won't realize the way the country has changed. the united states invaded iraq 20 years ago today launching an eight-year war now iraq is finally springing back to life the old bazaars are bustling again and american troops are replaced by american tourists. >> lovely people, so kind. >> reporter: this group traveling across the country without security it is not needed. >> let's go. >> reporter: the cradle of civilization is inviting the world back. >> i love it. >> reporter: photos are no problem. iraqis are delighted tourists have returned. >> so friendly not expecting it to be so friendly very kind. they'll ask if you're american

and say i love you. >> reporter: in 2007 at the peak of the civil war unleashed by the american invasion this bazaar was obliterated dozens killed. iraq has deep scars from the war. tens of thousands lost their lives why the country is deeply corrupt and the government is dominated by iran. but saddam hussein's former lake front palace is the american iraq university. the plan for 35,000 students and it's expanding quickly where are the dormitories going to go? >> probably in here and maybe fill in a little of the lake this land here will probably be college of engineering, agriculture. >> a hugely ambitious project. >> it really is.

>> reporter: the president works from saddam's old office. >> one of the worst dictators of mankind. it is an educational institution for the young people of iraq it is a symmetry of what is happening. >> reporter: many students are too young to remember sa lam the childhood's were defined by the american occupation. >> we need to change the world idea about iraq. you can see we are living in peace. >> freedom to speak. to live, to do anything. >> we are the future of iraq iraq needs us. >> reporter: for the first time in years iraqis are returning to build a better future. i mentioned iran's influence and it is very significant in some ways this square itself encapsulates the entire

experience that iraq has gone through. saddam's statue is gone but in its place is this giant mural of s solemeini. >> and of course so many people warned about that in 2002. leading to 2003. your package is incredible the reporting. i have so many questions i'd love to ask you. i asked you during the the war the reporting breath taking, extraordinary. i talked to you in 2009, 2010. we were going to the washington bureau and i'd asked you how iraqis were feeling. they have no good feelings about

george w. bush few good feelings about the americans but you talked about general petraeus just because of the change that happened in 2008 2009 it remind me dexter fillkins talking about not recognizing iraq in 2009 compared to 2003, 2004, 2005 it's been through so much since then and then going back and the iraqis prime ministers saying we want to build the relationship with the united states this has to be dizzying for you 20 years later can you tell us how you take all of this in right now i can't imagine the range of emotions you have. >> reporter: well, last night i stayed back in the palestine

hotel which is right over there and i stayed in my old room, 1217 i had the same view that i had 20 years ago watching shock and awe. i stayed there because i wanted to experience it all again let the memories come back this country has gone through an incredible transformation. first a dictatorship under saddam hussein and i was fortunate enough to come to iraq under saddam hussein on several trips talking about the country and saddam hussein and actually annoyed the iraqis quit a -- quite a bit. he had an election -- election it was a result of 97% that only north korea could appreciate this was a very dangerous

country. a place where you spoke out of line or did anything that the country didn't like you would be arrested or killed and the best the hope for is to live without being noticed. then the invasion came and here in this square we saw it, people celebrating, people who were looking forward to new opportunities and there was a period for about six, seven months to a year when there was a lot of optimism but when the united states dissolved the iraqi army which was probably the biggest mistake and started making errors after error after error a civil war broke out and then the iraqis killing iraqis and american troops felt overwhelmed. d disoriented with the group of

people the sunnis and the shias and then they had a new job and mission to stop the religious war they inadvertently began there was a surge. u.s. troops overwhelmed the civil war and why many iraqis were grateful because this horrible experience where iraqis were dying, bodies on the street i went on the river and seen bodies floating by they stopped eating fish because there were so many bodies in the river. a horrendous and disgusting time american troops left and iranians moved in.

because there is safety, peace and quiet here the militias you don't really see them on the street you see the presence but more involved in the politics and corruption and the oil industry. but they don't bother people on a day-to-day existence iraqis are coming out now. i was out at a nightclub last night on the river also in one of saddam's former palaces there are many signs of hope if the iraqis can take the opportunity. get rid of the outside influence and build from the moment forward but you don't see iraqis saying thank god the americans invaded. >> just one more quick question. i want to underline something you said i was going to ask you as someone there for 20 years, what was the biggest mistake

americans made you said the same thing that general mathis told me a couple years ago. returning to the office and given that paul bremner fired the iraqi army he turned to everybody at the headquarters and said, all right, let's go home this war is over can you just explain why that was such a devastating decision? >> reporter: it takes years to build an army. when the united states invaded this country, the army was quickly defeated the war began today, first started with shock and awe to knock out air defenses and then the ground invasion coming up from kuwait. the iraqi army didn't put up much of a fight and quickly

defeated and chose not to fight. the americans arrived here in baghdad. and then what the united states did was instead of giving that army a new lease on life, putting them to service, retraining them to do public works, whatever, the core of a new army, they sent them all home which infuriated and humiliated them. it was the core of an insurgency and started the civil war. >> we thank you so much for being with us this morning thank you so much for all you have done and brought to the world over 20 years. thank you. all right. it is the top of the hour now and joining the conversation is

peter baker and chris matthews it is good to have you both. we have a lot to cover this hour. >> we certainly do peter baker, your thoughts 20 years later. >> i was in the desert 20 years ago with the marines it is remarkable to see it through richard's report one of the best correspondents there over the years and see the complexions that he is showing us i don't know what we would have expected 20 years ago. i have a vivid memory talking to a marine intelligence officer just about to go in on that night. he said i expect to drive straight up to baghdad i don't think it is much of a problem but in the wake there's

a rolling civil war. it was very preshent he understood that it was not going to be easy the army could be taken down pretty rapidly an enso many consequences that we wouldn't be able to foresee and was exactly right. i think about that conversation all the time and how some people understood what we were about to get into and most of us did not. >> chris matthews, let's talk about peter baker like he is not here for a second. what an incredible story peter baker wrote this weekend about people connected with ronald reagan interfering with a possible release of iranian hostages give us your thoughts as someone that worked for jimmy carter. >> it was an amazing story and

fills in some of the holes i was on air force in chicago on sunday right before the 1980 election the president -- i could hear the noise in the hallway the president racing back to the white house with word that the mullahs in tehran might possibly be about to release the hostages i called the national security council and got the word that was going on very close it looked like things were changing the election would go the other way. back to washington carter decided after looking at the terms that the iranians were setting and too extreme. we couldn't get through them he had to go on national television the sunday before the election and like to say when the hostages would be returning but i cannot it was a terrible moment and

seemed close and the reporting by peter as always was excellent and ben barnes is a credible witness. a very strong democrat actually and the john connolly trip there to talk the arab nations, all of them to try to urge the islamic government in tehran to keep the hostages until reagan came into office and will make a better decision with you. that's horrible if that happened and then perhaps other efforts for an october surprise to this rart carter. >> reading from peter's reporting as if he's not here, this new reporting from "the new york times" detailing all of this ben barnes said the long time political mentor invited him on a mission to the middle east it was 1980 and jimmy carter was

in the white house bedevilled by a hostage crisis in iran that has paralyzed his presidency and hampered his effort to win a second term. his mentor was john b. connally jr. and sought the republican nomination in 1980 only to be swamped by former governor ronald reagan in california. now he resolved to help mr. reagan beat mr. carter and make a case for becoming secretary of state or defense in a new administration what happened next mr. barnes has largely kept secret for nearly 43 years. he was taken to a middle eastern xap after another that summer to pass a message to iran don't release the hostages

before the election. mr. reagan will win and give you a better deal. joe? >> it is a four-decade-old secret wish it came out earlier there are questions that haven't been answered. did ronald reagan know about this did casey know about this? if it was such a great deal for ronald reagan and it was connally bid to be secretary of state why did he get offered secretary of energy and refuse it in a huff this is obviously speaks extraordinarily badly of connally i'm curious what is the closest n nexus to suggest that people in the campaign may have known.

>> ben barnes can talk about what he saw and in the room for the meetings he doesn't know what governor reagan knew about it or not. there's intriguing hints right? in the files and the archives to look at there's a note on the third day of the trip saying nancy called and wanted you to be part of the strategy sessions we don't know if he returned the call according to ben barnes back from the trip they meet at the dallas-fort worth airport with ben casey running reagan's campaign and director of cia under ronald reagan and that was the main allegation was that casey making a deal in madrid in summer of

1980 so those theories have been seen as debunked but reporting to casey is intriguing. did the message get to the iranians we don't know. did they act as a result of it we don't know. john connally according to ben barnes made an effort to get iran to keep the hostages until after the election. >> given the timing that peter laid out the circumstantial evidence that casey knew about it very strong in that casts a shadow over 1980 much like a shadow cast over 1968 and the possibility of

people kconnected to nixon. >> say it ran before the 1980 election we were on air force one one of president jimmy carter's speechwriter if it was not a theory and the reality that the republicans were preventing the hostages coming back this is the biggest story in the world imagine how it changes the debate and reagan thrown on the defense to defend what connally was doing there. bill casey who took the carter debate book and involved in the reagan campaign. not a distant character. if we got that story from ben

barnes it would have exploded everything why the hostages were the key. the nightly news, the night before the 1980 election the main story, the leading story is hostage 365 days of the crisis that was the story the presidential election was the next day the hugest story in the world. it's just unimaginable what we would have done with the news. we didn't get it when it mattered and that's a fact. >> i can hardly imagine what the national security secretary would have said with this information. mika, again, we want to be careful as peter was careful to

say. a guy who is connected to a leading presidential candidate who wants to be secretary of state very, very unlikely that that person who had been in politics for decades would go rogue at this point on such a risky mission. >> i remember this time vividly. i was a child but i remember it vividly. this revelation, it is disregulating me. >> horrible for everybody. another top story. a manhattan grand jury is weighing whether to indict donald trump on allegations he made hush money payments to a porn star but the former president is already claiming he will be arrested tomorrow. gar garrett haake has the latest.

>> reporter: the courthouse will be the center of the political world where grand jurors are expected to be hearing testimony of the investigation into donald trump and the hush money payments back to 2016. while there's no official word about an indictment officials in new york city are preparing. new york city bracing for what could be an unprecedented decision donald trump shocking the political world saturday predicting onhis social media platform to be arrested on tuesday calling on supporters to protest. a trump spokesperson clarifying the former president is not notified to be charged the declaration is already galvanizing the supporters with prominent republicans rallying to his defense among them the speaker of the

house kevin mccarthy vowing to use committees to investigate new york city's investigation but distancing himself from the call for protests. >> i don't think people should protest this, no i think president trump if you talk to him doesn't believe that. >> reporter: also weighing in is the potential rivals. >> feels like a politically charged prosecution here for my part of just feel like it is just not what the american people want to see. >> reporter: while the mapt d.a.'s office isn't commenting it centers on whether donald trump directed michael cohen to pay often adult film star stormy daniels. >> donald trump needs to be held accountable for his dirty deeds. >> reporter: the former president denied any wrongdoing and accusing the district

attorney or a witch hunt bragg isn't responding publicly but told the staff in an email your safety is your top priority and without naming mr. trump adding we do not tolerate attempts to intimidate our office our threaten the rule of law in new york. with eyes on the grand jury's move they are expected to hear from robert costello also two law enforcement sources say that today there will be a security review to plan for the possibility or what could happen if and when an indictment is handed down. >> all right thank you so much. jonathan, what can you tell us on the white house beat and somebody who followed donald trump for years, wrote the book on the big lie here we are. looks like we'll go into a ky --

chaotic moment >> yeah. we have never been here this before this is a norm shattered by donald trump he is indeed whipping up supporters we have been talking about how kevin mccarthy seems to be doing his bidding. intimidating that process. we have has a number of republicans rally to the former president's defense. one notable absence is governor desantis who has not said anything about this matter despite's trump's team's pressure to do so. as you see this, as we may be on the precipice of history here, how this may be increasing in

the short term trump's grip on the republican party. >> look. you see what's happened. he's pelted off one fund raising letter after another raising money. stoke grievance, anger, energy after more months of the effort to get a second term for him at the moment he does see it potentially as a political boon to use it to rally people to the idea he is under persecution from the democrats and that they should be upset about that. the question is whether there's a winning strategy this may be not the last indictment even if there is one and you can see a different scenario playing out one, two, three indictments let's say. in georgia, by the federal

government for january 6 or the classified documents what point do trump voters get tire tired and say is there somebody to do what we like as trump without the court dates? >> and chris matthews, peter brings up a great point. here you have a party trying to figure out whether to turn their back on a guy that loses and going to desantis who dominated florida politics in 2022 or whether they continue to go back to a guy who may be indicted by the manhattan d.a. looks like in georgia and obstruction in the documents case and maybe for january 6. that is a lot to take on board when the republican party is

expressing concerning. looks like a catch-22 this week with another incident that makes donald trump grow stronger possibly with the republican base but weaker in pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, georgia, north carolina, arizona. the very areas that decide the next president. >> i agree the outsider votes outside the establishment to move against it. in terms of how the legal cases are going. after all this is over i want to see the president indicted for january 6. because the public saw it all. they saw the speech and the inrecollection they will see it all and understand why did this guy refuse to accept his defeat. he left office clearly lost the election.

no doubt it was over. they know he lost the election yet he went out there and got the people incited and sat there for two hours watching that gory scene of the capitol destroyed by those people. he saturday through that he did that. at least that is a case you don't have to take a jury. the american people know what happened and the jury will confirm that that needs to be dealt with. pence, the vice president, made it clear he needs to be held accountable for that that's the best possible endgame. >> thank you both. still ahead on "morning joe," legal analysis as we await a possible indictment of former president trump. and we'll discuss the historic

nature of this moment with john meacham. china president xi jinping in russia. you are wahitcng "morning joe. we'll be right back. the house whisperer! this house says use realtor.com to see homes in your budget. you're staying in school, jacob! realtor.com. to each their home. ooh, the chewy app. clumping litter. salmon paté? we have enough to splurge on catnip toys! i feel so accomplished. pet me please! great prices. happy pets. chewy.

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there's been a lot of let's just say amateur lawyering going on on news networks over the weekend. i want to bring in chuck rosenberg. chuck, let's talk about what crimes could be -- donald trump could be charged with. i hear people say, oh, this is much ado about nothing i will say that if -- when i

held events as running for federal office if i had 20 volunteers together and somebody brought the barbecue from sonny's if i didn't report that $30, $50, $60 in kind contribution, that was a violation. and if it's serious enough i could be charged for federal crime. in this case, you have cohen making a $130,000 hush money payment to a porn star at donald trump's request. repaid double not by the campaign but by the trump organization not reported on reports. when people say this is much ado about nothing i think of the congress people that i served

with and would have been charged and sent to jail if they do this. >> this is a fair point. this is a state crime and not a federal one but i tack your point. it is not the hush money payment that is illegal. that may seem improper illegal is the way you treat that payment on your books and records. if you are really paying the money to stormy daniels to remain quiet about an affair and then characterize the payment on the books and records as a legal retainer for mr. cohen that's a misdemeanor. now, if you commit that crime in order to conceal some other crime, to your point, an election law violation, a false reporting then that can be a felony under new york state law and seems like a misdemeanor

coupled with a felony connected to the same acts that's the offense. >> michael cohen was sent to jail for being part of this sc scheme why? >> i believe he pled guilty to eight felonies and there was a tax scheme, made false statements so there's more and more serious offenses to which he pled guilty now, he had an integral role if he is to be believed in the trump hush money false bookkeeping caper but cohen pled guilty to many more offenses in the federal system. >> you say if he is to be believed, does this case concern

you as a prosecutor? >> yes and no. >> if you want to know how libraries work you talk to librarians nothing at all unusual about a criminal as a witness at a criminal trial the key is how well to corroborate that person's testimony. are there other witnesses and documents? there seems to be corroboration for what michael cohen will testify to at trial. you have to be careful putting a witness on the stand with a motive for revenge michael cohen wants to get donald trump does it concern me yes. have i done it before? >> yes with corroboration. >> jon meacham, the principle seems to be that no man is above the law.

donald trump seemed to be above the law in the presidency but also during his life are you wringing your hand if he is only charged with a misdemeanor or do we still believe that no man is law whether they are the next president or an accountant or a construction worker? >> there are two tracks here there is the legal track and the political track. as much as we would like them to be entwined they aren't. a great question for the next couple of weeks and mika alluded to it at the top, a, whether it led to another example of trump inspired political violence. that's one question as this

process goes forward the other is in this polarized time does it matter? legally. politically does anybody on the fence about donald trump and i suspect there's a lot of room on the foence at this point will this matter to them. i'm historically speaking and sitting back and looking at it. what is troubling is that we are long at a point where nothing seems to matter. facts and traditional rules of gravity, codes within american politics don't apply here. i was thinking this weekend about there's a line in thomas payne. i don't know common sense but

before yorktown saying in america the law is king. the king is not the law. the law is king. and that's true in that sphere politically it is an unfolding and open question. coming up, marking 20 years since the start of the war in iraq what lessons if any have been learned since then "morning joe" is back in a moment lomita feed is 101 years old. when covid hit, we had some challenges. i heard about the payroll tax refund that allowed us to keep the people that have been here taking care of us. learn more at getrefunds.com. when you walk up to the counter at the pharmacy and you have a new prescription, you don't know what it's going to cost. that's why i always recommend you check the singlecare app before you go to the counter. i found the cheaper price with singlecare! yes, you did. see. give it a try. go to singecare.com or download the free app today.

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turning now to the war in ukraine. russian president vladimir putin visited the russian occupied city of mariupol located at the southern edge of ukraine's donetsk region saturday video shows putin driving through the city

in over a year of fighting it was his first trip to the territory captured by his forces and it is the closest he ventured to the front lines. chinese leader xi jinping is in moscow right now as he prepares to meet with russian president vladimir putin he touched down moments ago and the most notable diplomatic engagement with another country since launching the invasion russian media claims they will sign ten documents including two joint statements, one on comprehensive partnership and economic cooperation up until the year 2030 joining us is retired four star navy admiral stravidos richard haas

joe? >> you think that the visit to mariupol and xi's visit the moscow sends an ominous message to ukraine and the world what is it >> not peace is at hand. the fact that putin is there and associated with mariupol and crimea the day before essentially not a man on a brink of peace talks this is someone saying these are russian territories. china, xi jinping is flying in 13 months, 14 months since he closely linked himself to vladimir putin china may posture talking about peace but there's no way based on the 12-point plan china is a force for peace here what this suggests to me is the prediction that this is likely to be a long war. >> yeah. certainly no time soon but this war continuing for a

long time is not in the best interest, admiral, of those men or the countries i think i always go one layer too deep on these things but i would think if putin is in a position of weakness and thought xi would pressure him to peace the first thing to do is to visit mariupol and say don't think about asking me to negotiate back the land bridge between russia and crimea. >> i think that makes sense. i just happen to be in san antonio, texas, today. a couple yards from the alamo. mariupol is the alamo of this war. this is where ukrainian commandos held out until the very end putin had to destroy the industry to conquer it he goes there in the middle of

the night so the cameras don't see the blasted landscape and driving himself to show he is a manly man i guess but it is a pathetic send up if you think about it flash back a year. he is whispering, sipping vodka telling his best friend forever xi i will be in kyiv in two to three days 14 months later he is like a criminal returning to the crime as the ukrainians are saying it is a downfall for putin is he trying to signal the defiance in the face of the arrest warrant issued for him a couple days ago? yes, he is the question is as richard is xi going to throw down 100% here?

the thing to watch is whether china sends significant arms shipments to russia. that's what putin wants. i don't think xi falls into that trap. coming up, in an emergency rescue deal switzerland's biggest bank is buying credit suisse "morning joe" is coming right back moderate to severe eczema still disrupts my skin. despite treatment it disrupts my skin with itch. it disrupts my skin with rash. but now, i can disrupt eczema with rinvoq. rinvoq is not a steroid, topical, or injection. it's one pill, once a day. many taking rinvoq saw clear or almost-clear skin while some saw up to 100% clear skin. and, they felt dramatic and fast itch relief

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richard, you tweeted over the weekend about the iraq war said the u.s. government, my boss at the time colin powell did not lie about wmd. the word lie bears intent.

we misinterpreted the intelligence that, of course, received quite a response on social media, richard. i will say that, of course, as you wrote later the iraq war was a disaster a war of choice. going back to the time you had the director of cia saying it was a slam dunk that iraq had weapons of mass destruction. you had overwhelming majorities of both republicans and democrats in the white house and in the senate supporting this war. bush actually put together a large coalition to go in looking back, a lot of that seems to be forgotten. but bottom line here, the bush administration got it terribly,

horrifically wrong what are the lessons >> it's useful to distinguish the wmd issue and the decision to go to war people thought weapons of mass destruction. if you have a hammer everything looks like a nail. every piece of intel people saw the framing of the assumption that he had weapons of mass destruction. i thought it was a mistake to go to war we had other options i thought the idea to bring democracy to iraq was preposterous pipe dream. >> what was the -- take us back. what was the absolute obsession after 9/11 to link saddam hussein who was the most blood thirsty leader who killed more arabs than anybody else in history, but what was the obsession linking saddam hussein

to september 11th where there wasn't the evidence there? >> some people looking for an excuse to go to war against iraq. >> why >> trying to link them or the fear that he had wmd and would use it or give it to terrorists. after 9/11 people wanted to transform the middle east. this is what the president wanted this was most of the aisds probably cheney who had -- the vice president a narrow security focus. i think the lessons going back to the original question is if you invade a country this sounds silly but understand it. the united states didn't understand the demographic and political and and cultural basi iraq you need to think through what it's going to take to succeed, not simply to win the battle up front, but how you're going to secure the peace we didn't think that through

donald rumsfeld had an inadequate force to do that. the big winner was iran. what we did was, we made the region safe for iranian influence. we alienated many americans from the government and american foreign policy a lot of the populism in this country can being linked back to the iraq war, clearly the isolationism of it can be. this is a classic case of not just a war of choice, but a classic case of overreach. that is the big lesson the united states cannot go about the world, to quote john quincy adams, in search of monsters to destroy. we need to be active in the world, but we cannot overreach in the world that's the lesson of iraq. the world, the united states paid a real price for it. >> we are seeing a bipartisan group of lawmakers trying to claw back some of the authority

to declare war from the executive branch pointing to this 20-year mark of the iraq invasion admiral stavridis, i want to get your thoughts on the anniversary. here we are 20 years later what do you think when you think about that conflict and america's ability to wage war today? >> first, as always in these scenarios, it's important to put yourself back in that moment when these decisions were made i was in the pentagon on 9/11. the aircraft struck 150 feet to the right of my office i'm very lucky to be here today. there was a huge emotion in the country. i think that richard is right, that emotion translated into a series of policy decisions that haunt us today it's important to put it in that context of the emotion of the moment then, secondly, the real question is, what does this tell

us about the limits of american power in the world i think we have to recognize that, as fareed zakaria has said, we're not the sole super power, but we're not a declinist nation either. others have risen. it's a very different world than taking on this war of choice in iraq, but avoiding the deeply dangerous idea of a war with china. that's why this meeting between xi jinping and vladimir putin, the leaders of autocratic nations, is so important for us to watch carefully this week and see what comes out of it >> talk about the tragedy of iraq, if you could we have well over 4,000 u.s. troops killed there, well over

100,000 iraqis killed from the violence that sprang from that war. i'm just curious, what was the cost to the united states long term >> exactly as richard says, it is now being thrown at us as though it's a moral equivalent to what's happening in ukraine in other words, i often hear from not just people from the global south, brazil, nigeria, pakistan, india, but also europeans will say, well, why is it so terrible that putin is invading ukraine after all, you invaded iraq. that's a real cost to us there are correct answers to that question that makes it different. >> what's your answer to that question >> my answer is, the moral equivalent would be if the united states decided to invade

canada, absorb all of its mineral resources, took canadian children and moved them back to the united states. that's what russia is doing in ukraine. so dismiss that moral equivalency. the point we have to continue to deal with as americans in the world is that we have to have humility about it. we need to recognize that nations are like people. they make mistakes the measure of any nation, just like the measure of any person is, how you come back after that mistake. i think standing up to vladimir putin is the right thing to be doing now, and we need to push aside that false moral equivalency. but, boy, i'm hearing a lot of that on my circuits. coming up, a live report from orlando, florida, where house republicans are huddling for their annual retreat "morning joe" is back in a moment

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♪ live look at a cloudy los angeles for you this morning welcome back to the fourth hour of "morning joe. it's 9:00 a.m. on the east coast, 6:00 a.m. out west. we have a lot to get to this morning, including the latest developments in the manhattan d.a.'s case and the possibility that an indictment against former president trump could come this week also ahead, shares of credit suisse and ubs plunge deeply this morning after the banking giant announced it would buy the troubled bank in a $3 billion deal cnbc's andrew ross sorkin joins us to explain if the move will calm fears in the banking

system later this hour, a california school board sues three social media giants, alleging they are designed to be purposefully addictive and have sparked a mental health crisis we'll speak to the superintendent in that lawsuit coming up this hour. turning to a meeting in moscow that is being extremely closely watched, vladimir putin hosting a high profile summit with the chinese leader. it comes just days after the international criminal court issued an arrest warrant for russia's president, accusing him of war crimes and after putin made a defiant and surprise visit to russian occupied areas in ukraine nbc news's keir simmons has the latest. >> reporter: good day to you president xi is in russia after a lunch with president putin,

the two sitting down for an informal bilateral meeting the russian president over the weekend attempting to show strength in reality, he is more reliant on china than ever president xi and president putin meeting in moscow today as personal friends and fellow autocrats. though striking notably different tones in newspaper op-eds this morning, putin slamming the strategy of double containment in russia and china. xi calling for dialogue over ukraine while supporting russia. putin showing no interest in compromise, this weekend traveling by helicopter for his first known visit to territory illegally occupied by his forces, traveling to mariupol, the kremlin's camera filming him telling residents in the new apartment, sorry to bother you in daylight, this is what most of mariupol looks like after a

devastating russian onslaught. this is the city where a theater of civilians was targeted, hundreds died and where a maternity hospital was shelled, killing and wounding pregnant women. ukraine's presidential office saying the criminal is always drawn to the scene of the crime. putin accused of war crimes by the international criminal court for the illegal deportation of children from ukraine to russia, casually walking past a newly constructed playground the kremlin calling the international arrest warrant outrageous, unacceptable and void the u.s. signaling to russia and china attempts at a deal to end the war, but leaving places like mariupol in russian hands will fail. >> if coming out of this meeting there's some sort of call for a cease fire, that's going to be unacceptable. >> reporter: president xi hoping to present himself as a diplomat this week. president putin viewing the chinese leader's visit as a diplomatic victory

in the days to come, president putin will act like he no longer cares what europe and american think. president xi, with all of china's economic ties to the west, definitely does care, even as he increasingly openly challenges the u.s now to this, for the first time in history potentially, a former u.s. president could be criminally indicted. those charges may come as early as this week according to five senior officials familiar with the plans, federal, state and local law enforcement agencies are discussing security measures ahead of a possible indictment of former president trump from the manhattan district attorney's office. this is in connection with a hush money payment the former president allegedly made to a porn star in the closing days of the 2016 campaign to keep her quiet about an affair she claims to have had with trump back in

2006 trump denies having an affair with stormy daniels and any wrongdoing although we're told law enforcement's plans are precautionary, trump claimed on social media over the weekend that he would be arrested on tuesday. in that same post, he also called for the protests to, quote, take our nation back, drawing comparisons to his calls for the violence in the leadup to the january 6th insurrection. despite those claims, a trump spokesperson tells nbc news that the former president has not been notified about a possible arrest as a precaution, however, manhattan d.a. alvin bragg told his staff in an internal memo over the weekend that he would, quote, not tolerate attempts to intimidate our office or threaten the rule of law former vice president mike pence, whose life was threatened on january 6th, is also

criticizing the manhattan d.a.'s investigation. here's what he told abc's jonathan karl yesterday. >> he's calling on people to protest, to come out and protest, take our nation back. we know what happened the last time he said that. >> well, john, the american people have a constitutional right to peaceably assemble. >> but to have a former president calling on people to protest a justice proceeding >> the frustration the american people feel about what they sense isa two-tiered justice system in this country, i think, is well founded. i believe that people understand that if they give voice to this, if this occurs on tuesday, that they need to do so peacefully and in a lawful manner, that the violence that occurred on january 6th, the violence that occurred in cities throughout this country in the summer of 2020 was a disgrace.

the american people won't tolerate it. and those that engage in that kind of violence should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. >> for more, let's bring in ali vitali live in orlando, florida, where house republicans are gathering for their annual caucus retreat ali, i wonder how republicans will be navigating the next few days if, if an indictment happens. what do you know about what the reaction has been to trump's call to mika, look timing is everything. the fact we are here in florida for this annual retreat at the same time as this possible indictment could be coming could put us in the belly of the beast effectively, allowing us to be around all these lawmakers in realtime if that indictment were to come down that is the thing looming over this conference. it is supposed to be focused on

policy, on what these republicans want to do now that they actually have the majority here instead, you see our story we wrote before we came down here it's even more true after yesterday when i spoke with speaker mccarthy all the things these leadership republicans wanted to talk about were policy items and everythin to do with donald trump. listen to this [ inaudible question ] >> i don't think people should protest this, no i think president trump, if you talk to him, he doesn't believe that either. he's not talking in a harmful way. and nobody should, nobody should harm one another in this this is why you should really make law equal because if that was the case, nothing would happen here. >> reporter: so you're hearing speaker mccarthy echo the same themes that former vice president mike pence was saying to john karl

it is impossible at this moment, though, mika, to unlink january 6th and trump's rhetoric leading up to that day and the things he is saying now on truth social. it's a different social media platform, but it's the exact same thing mccarthy, when pressed again on that by another colleague of mine here, that this rhetoric really is a mirror image of what we were hearing in 2020, mccarthy was saying that he, again, is trying to put trump's comments through a filter that doesn't exist. he's saying there protest, take our country back mccarthy though urging calm and saying he thinks this is an unequal system of justice. i do think we're going to hear some news today either from the house judiciary committee or the weapons select committee that's all squarely at the feet of jim jordan. mccarthy saying they're going to investigate how they're investigating that investigation

out of manhattan the republicans starting to churn on something here. >> ali vitali, thank you for your reporting let's bring in former u.s. attorney joyce vance and dave aronberg also senior advisor for republicans on the house oversight committee, kurt bardella, advisor to the dnc and dccc earlier in the show we did some leaping forward, like what it would look like if there was an indictment do we know if there's going to be an indictment >> well, we don't know for certain. that decision is up to the grand jury the d.a. will present their evidence they'll present a proposed indictment then they'll ask the grand jury to vote on it. at that point, that's why we have, for instance, michael cohen on the stand as a witness today. if th

it is the grand jury's decision to make. >> dave aronberg, if trump were going to be arrested tomorrow, as he claimed on his social media account, would his attorneys and representatives not have already been notified of that by today >> good morning, joe i think they would be notified just right before. that's why i think that trump made up the part about the indictment coming tomorrow i think it's probably coming towards the end of the week. the reason why he mentioned tomorrow is i think he wants his supporters in the street to protest to try to intimidate prosecutors. prosecutors aren't going to be intimidated. we're used to this kind of stuff. we're going to follow the evidence and the law it is interesting, this is the "lock her up" crowd that's saying all that stuff. they're the ones that introduced this whole thing to our lexicon

about prosecuprosecuting your pl enemies, but when it's their guy, a liberal is a conservative that's been arrested. >> the timing usually is mondays and wednesdays, so it would be after one of those if we do get an indictment. speaker mccarthy has been flat-out threatening to use his powers in the house of representatives to potentially call the manhattan d.a. or his associates to testify to try to cut federal funding, to basically try to weaponize the government to try to stop this probe. what's your level of concern what are things he could do? where do we go from here >> i think this is a very dangerous development when you have the speaker of the house openly calling for congressional committees to be used as an

obstruction of justice vehicle for donald trump we've seen to this point to go after the former president's political adversaries, the current president and his family now they're going to take it to another level to meddle with the district attorney in manhattan's investigation. they're going to go after the attorneys and what evidence they have it wouldn't surprise me if they try to find out who's actually on this grand jury and go after them and try to undermine this case it's a flagrant abuse of power of congressional authority this is not what oversight authority is for oversight authority is to look at the federal government, to look at how taxpayer resources are being used and deployed at the federal level, not to meddle with a manhattan d.a.'s investigation. >> in an interview on abc, former new jersey governor chris christie was asked about trump's

claim that he'll be arrested tomorrow here's what he had to say. >> the circus continues. look, he only profits and does well in chaos and turmoil. so he wants to create the chaos and turmoil on his terms you know him well. he wants it on his terms look, at the end, being indicted never helps anybody. it's not a help. now, i think of the three investigations, i think this is the one where people know the most so because they know the most, they're going to take it less seriously. i don't think there's many americans who don't believe donald trump had an affair with stormy daniels and don't believe that he made hpaid her money top it quiet i don't think the american people will see this as a huge crime, but the vision of a former president of the united states being processed,

fingerprints, mugshotted, he says it helps his campaign, but being indicted i don't think ever helps anybody. >> a sliver of republican honesty there. i actually disagree. he says most americans know the most about this case i would say january 6th is a set of events people watched play out in realtime and they know a great deal about it, including these marauders, these trumpers running through the halls of the capitol, threatening people's lives, bashing through windows, defecating, throwing papers and rummaging through desks. i mean, the american people know a lot about that case. so that will be an interesting one to watch as it plays out for this one, i guess i would say to chris christie, a crime

is a crime is a crime is a crime. that's what anybody prosecutoring or a judge would say. >> yeah. i think you're absolutely right, mika of all the things we associate with donald trump that has fallen under scrutiny, it is january 6th, it is the big lie most people might be aware something happened with donald trump and stormy daniels i don't think they understand the legality, the true nature of why that's a crime. >> the money part, yeah. >> that's what's going to need some education for donald trump to go out there and for kevin mccarthy to say all these things and jim jordan to potentially announce an investigation without even knowing the facts, without anything even happening yet, to make these assumptions before knowing the facts has become a familiar refrain for republicans right now. we're seeing exactly the same pattern with how they're going after the biden family they go out, make all these declarations and spend the next

weeks trying to find the evidence they have to admit when asked is there evidence, there isn't any. >> jonathan lemire, as mika said, a crime is a crime, is a crime. i completely agree with chris christie an indictment is an indictment is an indictment everybody can huff and puff and try to blow people's houses down politically, at the end of the day an indicted donald trump is weaker >> that's the key point. if he were to be indicted, i think we'd see a short-term boost. i think his base would rally around him we're already hearing it from a lot of other republicans coming to his support i would suspect to see his poll numbers go up in the gop field

this likely won't be the only indictment he could face joyce, that's where i wanted to go with you. this is obviously going to be the focus this week, is this particular case. but there are several others still out there, fulton county, mar-a-lago, of course january 6th. what do you think the next shoe to drop might be >> my crystal ball isn't very good about predicting the order prosecutors go in, but i think you make a very important point here, which is that we don't know what the charges look like, let alone where they're coming from and when. there's a lot of speculation about the charges coming out in manhattan and the fact that they center around false entries and business records we don't know whether the d.a. has something more expansive or not. this morning there's reporting that in georgia fanny willis is considering rico charges, a serious statute that allows

prosecutors to bring in a wide range of conduct to prove there was engagement in racketeering activity typically this is a statute used in organized crime but it might suggest she now plans to put off indictment until early may. again, there we don't really know the federal grand jury that's investigating both january 6th and trump's problem with retaining and lying about r retaining classified documents is much more opaque. we don't know what that federal timeline looks like, but we got the hint late last week when doj successfully argued to a federal judge that they were entitled to testimony from one of trump's lawyers in the classified documents matter that the attorney/client privilege was pierced by something called the crime fraud exception. the judge found there was criminal conversation going on there and permitted the

testimony. that suggests doj is serious about indicting that case. >> joe, just reading the trump tea leaves, because his behavior is very revealing often, when bad news is coming his way, like losing the election, what he does is starts posting in all caps and gets people to come to his support, which is what he did on january 6th now, again, he's posting in all caps, asking people to save america or whatever it was he said i think he's lying about the day tuesday, but i think the man very much feels bad news is coming his way. >> right he thinks it's coming, trying to blunt the impact of that news maybe it will be on wednesday instead of tuesday, not really sure dave aronberg, you look at this case and i think we've heard a lot of people talk about, oh,

this isn't as important of a case, but a crime is a crime is a crime, an indictment is an indictment is an indictment, as mika said. i'm a little bit confused by people who are saying and i understand doj's guidance for a it sitting president even though i disagree with it you shoot somebody on fifth avenue, you get indicted you commit crimes, you get indicted that said, if you had this case before you, would you sit on it just because you're concerned about maybe political niceties or because what one party might think about it versus another political party? or would you just look at the law and if a crime had been committed, would you be compelled by the oath you took to bring charges

>> joe, prosecutors can't be concerned with political niceties it's all about following the evidence and the law keep in mind, michael cohen was sentenced to federal prison for the hush money payment the reason why his unindicted coconspirator, donald not sitting in a cell next to him is bec-- for those who say i iscompared to a rico charge or obstruction, this is not something. this is something that sentenced michael cohen to prison. if they could tie it to other felonies, it really is something. i don't think they're going to indict donald trump for a misdemeanor. it's going to be a felony.

>> dave, you forgot one. is it serious compared to being part of a conspiracy to commit sedition against the united states government? maybe not. maybe not as serious, but a crime is a crime is a crime. >> obstruction of an official proceeding will get you 20 years in prison, just like seditious conspiracy and it's a lot easier to prove >> thank you all very much for being on this morning. coming up on "morning joe," we're taking a look at wall street the markets are in the green moments before the opening bell after a rival of credit suisse steps up to buy the troubled lender when moderate to severe ulcerative colitis

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welcome back to "morning joe. it's 27 past the hour. ubs is rescuing credit suisse from the brink of collapse by buying the bank for $3.2 billion. this is the first mega merger of two global banks since the 2008 financial crisis the deal was brokered by the swiss government over the weekend. the government will provide more than $9 billion to aid in some losses ubs may incur in the acquisition. meanwhile, a new study finds on the heels of silicon valley bank's collapse, more than 190 other banks are also at risk of failure even if only half their depositors decide to withdraw cs

leading central banks announce new action >> that is a lot let's bring in coanchor of "squawk box" andrew ross sorkin. poor, poor ubs shotgun wedding. swiss government says, you're going to merge with credit suisse i don't know how happy they were about that is this the end of our problems? does this guarantee bank stability in our time? >> i don't think we're there yesterday. this was, of course, an arranged marriage between two of the biggest swiss banks. they think of banks as national champions, if you will now there will be one national champion in a combined ubs/credit suisse. they'll have to lay off potentially tens of thousands of people around the world to pull this off i think for ubs it will turn out to be a good deal, if you will it does not really end our problems here in the united

states as that study really reveals, our banks don't have enough cash on hand. too many of them, like silicon valley bank, have effectively bought long duration bonds at effectively lower interest rates than where they are today. therefore, they look like they're sitting there with a loss there's something like a billion dollars in unrealized losses embedded in our banking system today. the big question at this point is, do those deposits remain implicitly or explicitly guaranteed and if they aren't, what happens next >> so, andrew, tyou've got the fed stepping in, doing what other central banks around the world are doing to try to

guarantee money. my question is this, though, with the news that you just talked about, the news that mika read and reported, why would people not continue to move their money from regional banks to the big four national banks because right now, again, there doesn't seem to be any guarantee that the money is safe in regional banks. >> that's the concern. that's what the white house is grappling with, the fear that this understandable push will continue, that perhaps some of these regional banks right now are perceived as not being a safe bet we're hearing from treasury yellen and the white house saying, no, no, they're okay, we'll make sure they're okay,

but of course it is reasonable to worry there's still concern about the future of these banks. i was talking to some financial leaders in new york at the end of last week who do fear those won't be the last banks that go under, that need help. we're still in the early stages of this story, joe. >> mika, i asked dan and tj for a split screen with the opening bell, because we had andrew at the same time the bell was going to open. i said, can you guys get me a split screen we did we found out that was a mistake. sorkin had a pavlovian response. he heard the bell ring and apparently ran straight down to the floor and left his camera. we'll talk more about that tomorrow maybe we'll just play soothing music. >> you triggered him coming up, a superintendent for a california school district

is taking legal action to address the growing concerns of teen mental health she is suing major social media companies. she joins us live on "morning joe," next through the pandemic, getrefunds.com can see if it may qualify for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee. all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then work with professionals to assist your business with its forms and submit the application. go to getrefunds.com to learn more. the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com

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♪ a california school district is suing some of the biggest players in the social media world for what they say is their role in the mental health crisis affecting young people san mateo county officials allege tiktok, snapchat and youtube are targeting and exploiting school aged children, leaving them to deal with the fallout, which includes distracted students, increased absences, more children diagnosed with adhd, cyber bullying that carries into the classroom and even physical damage to our san mateo schools. the school board is asking the companies to pay for mental health services and for damages done to the schools during the challenges and going viral on the apps representatives for the three

platforms did not comment directly on the lawsuit itself, but emphasized the work they are doing to keep their products safe joining us now the superintendent of the district suing youtube, snapchat and tiktok, nancy mcgee and the attorney representing the school district ann marie murphy. thank you both for being with us nancy, i'll start with you i listed some of the things you are seeing, but you were saying what you are seeing in the kids in your county school district have a direct impact from social media, that social media is causing it if so, why not also instagram? >> well, thank you so much for having us. you know, i think that most of america knows that we're in the middle of a mental health crisis it's real. the surgeon general last year put out a report and tied social media use in teenagers to a rise

in anxiety and depression. just for some numbers, children now reported that between 2016 and 2020 there was a nationwide rise in depression and anxiety among youth by about 26% so what people don't realize is that these impacts in our young people are felt every day in our schools. so we feel it's time to shine a light on the impacts this is having on our system therefore, we want to bring in those parties that are behind the impact and be a partner and be part of the solution as we move forward. >>murphy, what is th case you are making? and also, again, why not instagram? >> sure. i'm pretty sure we will be parties, including the facebook

entities in the near term. the suit is currently against youtube, tiktok and snap it's brought by the san mateo county board of education and superintendent magee it's brought as a public nuisance litigation and there's precedent for that type of litigation in our court when companies have widespread negative practices that are widely impacting communities examples are the opioid litigation and the juul juul e-cigarette litigation. >> i'm curious about the parallel big tech versus big tobacco. a lot of conversations we've had here on the set of "morning joe," some predictions have been made even years ago that this would be the next big tobacco lawsuit. again, with kids being preyed upon so do you see any parallels?

>> absolutely. just starting with the fact that they are framed as public nuisance claims, so the legal theories are very, very similar. at their heart, they are about the theory of a public nuisance. and both cigarettes, e-cigarettes and now social media have had a very marked negative impact on youth age children and have had a role in what our schools are facing. as you probably know, a number of school districts banded together and were a very important part of the ju juul e-cigarette litigation that is still ongoing we're trying to address increases in mental health spending that schools are experiencing as they try to deal with this new reality of kids

being addicted to social media >> the parallels are there between big tobacco and big tech you look at big tobacco having documents, having studies showing the harmful impact that cigarettes had to the health of americans. yet, they never pass that along. they hid that information. you look at big tech they've had studies. mika keeps talking about instagram because of the facebook internal study that talked about the increase that instagram caused for teenagers, especially teenage girls, increase of depression, anxiety, suicidal ten denctendencies, sus you look at documentaries about silicon valley and there's one especially compelling one called

"the social dilemma" where they talk about all the horrible things social media do to children then at the end of it, they ask all of these top tech people how much screen time do you give your kids. they're like, screen time, are you kidding me the people that run this multibillion dollar industry don't let screens in their own home for the most part or if they do, they radically restrict their children from screen time, because they know how damaging it is to their emotional health. >> the fact they have evidence to suggest that and yet cover it up that's a key part of litigation going forward. nancy, we know there are all these real world impacts you're seeing on students could you just tell us maybe one or two quick examples of things you've seen in your school

system the harmful impacts of social media >> absolutely. i mean, online bullying, for one, is very impactful for kids at school. we've had posts up on social media that have been directly physically threatening harm to a child and we contact the social media companies to remove the content. it's very, very difficult to almost impossible. you can imagine the disruption that causes in a school setting when all the kids are together in the social sitting of the school we do have more children in san mateo county being referred from their schools to psych emergency settings more than we've ever seen before. i think if you talk to any parent today of a preteen or a teen, they're going to tell you

that the level of anxiety and depression maybe not with their own children, but with their children's social network is palpable and real. it's something that 15 years ago, when i was raising my own children, i don't think we were having to navigate >> not at all. mika, i have kids spanning decades. things have changed radically over the past five, six, seven years. i've told this story before, but it's relevant here just a reminder, when we went to a new jersey college and spoke to students there, we talked to the dean of students seven years ago and said, what are the biggest challenges you're facing with students? we were shocked. he immediately said instagram. we're dealing with levels of

depression and anxiety and suicidal ideation we've never dealt with before. i remember we were all shocked because that was seven years ago. we had not heard about it. but in the time since, one administrator after another, one principal after another. >> one family after another. it's disruptive. >> one family after another. this is the most obvious thing in the world if social media companies want to know why we're so angry is because we've seen the impact it's had on their friends, on their community, on their schools. let me just say, especially in the case of instagram for girls especially, it is all bad. it is a nightmare. it is a nightmare for parents. it is a nightmare for educators. it is a nightmare for practicing

therapists. >> they're all a nightmare, joe. t we're going to be doing a lot of this. i think nancy and marie are onto something here that is incredibly important and is impacting our entire society and entire generations of children they're growing up with emotional incoming 24/7, not a break from it. they don't have the skills or the emotional maturity to deal with what's coming in all the time and what they're exposed to all the time. >> when we went to school, when my older kids went to school, if they were bullied at school, if they had a hard time at school, they could come home and they're at a place where they can decompress, talk to their parents, talk through problems they had at school this is 24/7 again, yes, i know that's where the world is what we're talking about here,

though, we're not being l luddites we're talking about the fact this is just as bad as big tobacco or worse, because they know the impact this has on young minds. >> it's killing them. >> they know the impact especially on teenage girls, but also on guys they're doing it anyway. in fact, they're trying to expand the amount of hours that young people spend on their devices. there is no explaining this away from big tech. when somebody reaches out to me from big tech after we talk about this, it only makes me more angry, because there's no explaining this away it's just like big tobacco putting out ads talking about how smoking cigarettes is actually good for you. >> please. >> like they did in the '40s and '50s it's nonsense. >> than see magee, ann marie

murphy, keep us posted, please thank you. still ahead, we're going to be joined by the executive producer for the new short film "rise" which takes on iran's morality picole and women's rights "morning joe" is coming right back the more choices, the better. that's why america's beverage companies are working together to deliver more great tasting options with less sugar or no sugar at all. in fact, today, nearly 60% of beverages sold contain zero sugar. different sizes? check. clear calorie labels? just check. with so many options, it's easier than ever to find the balance that's right for you. more choices. less sugar. balanceus.org as americans, there's one thing we can all agree on. the promise of our constitution and the hope that liberty and justice is for all people. but here's the truth. attacks on our constitutional rights, yours

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go down in history with your bitter, twisted lies you may trump me in the very dirt, but still like dust arise. >> that is the trailer for the new short film "rise," evoking maya angelou's famous poem "i will rise. it tells the story of an iranian teenager who resists the country's morality police, leaving them to kidnap her from the streets of tehran. joining us, the film's executive

producer, the founder and ceo of evoke a foundation and grassroots movements which elevate women and girls. thank you very much for joining us please tell us about this film what can viewers learn and take away who do they meet and what do they learn >> thank you so much for having me i think one of the most important messages that we wanted to send with the film was to first commemorate the women's life freedom movement and honor the request coming out of iran from the people that were protesting, and ha is to hear our voice and share our stories. today is iranian new year, and many iranians all over the world are still in mourning given what has happened over the past six months really what we wanted to do with this film was to send a message of solidarity, not just to our compatriots fighting for freedom and self-determination on the ground, but for iranians all

over the year, despite it being the new year and a time of celebration, we're spending it in mourning. >> naza, the world has watched with wrapped interest and the who row the protests and how they've been put down by the iranian government if you can give us a sense as to the state now. so many courageous women and their allies have fought for their increased free development just give us an update on the ground as to where things stand at this moment are their voices still being heard? >> there was an outbreak of protests again over the past couple of weeks due to the number of school girls that were poisoned they were attending school, and the government actually admitted they were putting gas in the schools, suppressing the protests that have happened. the issue still remains. it's only a matter of time

before more protests break out as i said, there are still many people in prison so until people are free, there's not -- nothing is going to change. >> naza, this is so extraordinarily important, important on so many levels, as you say, for the women who are silenced all over the world who never get their stories out, but also, can you talk about these extraordinary women that actually had the courage to participate in "rise" and how the women of "rise" did that to get their story out to the world despite the fact they face retribution from just a ruthless, blood-thirsty regime that wouldn't think twice about killing little girls >> look, the people that are participating in the film -- in the process of it was very difficult for us because you are essentially putting yourself at risk by putting yourself out

there. these people are unbelievable, but i think the most important thing -- one of the most important things was the people that contributed to the script these are refugees that have fled iran, that have had direct interactions with the morality police so the story line, it is played fictionally, but based on true events. >> the film "rise" will be available on youtube later this afternoon. naza alakija, thank you for bringing that to us. it's time before we close for the day for final thoughts joe, what are you looking at today? >> it's what i just looked at. i want to give it back to you. we talked to olena sa lynn ska about the brave, strong, powerful women in ukraine and the extraordinary things they were doing to defend their homeland we just heard from naza about these remarkable women of "rise"

who are doing the same thing young women, young girls, women of all ages in iran pushing back against totalitarian, ruthless, evil regime that has gunned down young girls in the street. and yet despite the possibility of retribution, they stand up, they speak, they fight back. >> they do and that does it for us this morning. lindsey reiser picks up the coverage after a quick final break. i'm your overly competitive brother. check. psych! and i'm about to steal this game from you just like i stole kelly carter in high school. you got no game dude, that's a foul! and now you're ready to settle the score. game over.

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