they're not the same losing someone suddenly is devastating, absolutely devastating. i've heard incredible stories about the spirit of these families and the resilience and your bravery the town of rolling fork will be back and we'll be with you every step of the way. what did i say i said rolling stone i got my mind going here we'll be back and we'll be with you every step of the way. god bless you all and god bless our first responders thank you. >> president biden in rolling fork, mississippi, touring the damage from that mile-wide tornado that blew through that town about six days ago, leaving 26 people dead, that tornado, across mississippi and alabama

promising them they will get the help they need and that rolling fork -- he said rolling stone. he meant rolling fork. good to be with you. i'm katy tur we'll go to our big story today. donald trump is expected to surrender to the manhattan d.a. on tuesday he's already been calling for protest and now marjorie taylor greene is promising to show up who else is coming we have details on what new york city is doing to make sure it's not january 6th. what kind of case will this be two sources familiar with the indictment tell nbc donald trump is facing about 30 counts related to document fraud. the indictment is under seal lawyers are wondering whether d.a. alvin bragg is on solid

ground we explore the tricky legal theory there are also questions about whether a hush money payment from seven years ago to a porn store might set a bad prez cedet we'll ask that to our experts. after tuesday everything changes, not least of which the 2024 race. what happens if a criminal trial goes head to head with presidential primaries let's get right to it. joining me from outside the manhattan d.a.'s office is gar garrett haake. an garrett, you have donald trump calling for protests you have marjorie taylor greene

saying she'll show up. what is new york city doing today? >> reporter: nypd asked all officers to be in uniform and prepared for deployment on the possibility of the protests. it's worth pointing out the last time donald trump called for protests when he thought he would be arrested he only drew a few dozen people this is the real deal. we expect the former president to be arraigned tuesday. marjorie taylor greene said she would be here and she may bring others we don't know yet. we have nypd out in force. they're adding more barricades we went up to see how close we could get to the courtroom where donald trump will be arraigned tuesday. that floor of the courthouse shut down in preparation we were reporting two weeks ago the secret service would begin its security reviews of the courthouse after they learned that mr. trump had been

indicted i can't confirm that is happening today. we're in the window where the secret service has a lot to go through. they are in unchartered territory. the clock is ticking towards the arraignment. >> talk about the way donald trump is talking about the judge who will be presiding over that arraignment. >> reporter: it's familiar to folks like you and me and anybody else who covered donald trump in 2016. this is right out of his political playbook to target anyone who might be targeting him as a perceived political enemy. he's posting on truth social about the judge who will oversee this case, saying the judge hates him. this is the judge who presided over the allan weisselberg case. the idea of attacking a judge,

someone paid to be impartial, is something we saw throughout the campaign and during his tenure in the white house a page from the political playbook here as donald trump tries to define the conflict he's in as purely political, when in this case it's a legal one, not a political one. >> what is it going to take for the d.a. to bring a felony charge what does it take to make this falsifying of documents case a felony charge? >> the falsifying of business records is normally a misdemeanor, up to a year in prison the falsification here would be writing on the books and records of the trump organization that that hush money was legal experiences and categorizing it in the phony way would be what makes it a false business

record to elevate it to a felony, in this case a low-level felony, we're talking about four years in prison, in order to do that, you have to have a second crime. think about just stepping it up with something else. what that something else, that's the piece we don't know. it's something i'm going to be looking for when the indictment is unsealed. part of the issue is state prosecutors looking into state crimes there could be a state conspiracy charge they use or they could try to tack this on to some sort of federal campaign violation. that would be tricky because we've never seen a jury conviction upheld. it's never been done before or tested there's been cases where it's charged but hasn't been looked at by a court. >> talk about what we know about the indictment so far. i know it's under seal the expectation is we'll learn

more on tuesday when the former president is arraigned. >> that's right. we're reporting that there's some 30 counts in this indictment related to those business records, the phony business records that we haven't seen exactly what that entails just because there are 30 counts doesn't mean there are 30 different charges. you might see a lot of the same charges, but multiple counts it's because of the way these payments were reimbursed to michael cohen. there's a series of payment made monthly. in 2017 while trump is in the white house he's reimbursing cohen roughly 35 grand every month through a series of different payments you can see the checks hand signed by trump himself. he's making those payments every time he does that, as a false business record, you can have a separate count. that's one of the things to look out for when this indictment is

made public. >> you report about how alvin bragg could have other evidence here to strengthen his case. what else do you know? >> if there are 30 counts and 11 checks, what else is there is there a banking charge? joe tac tahat -- in new york you can't have the word of michael cohen making their case. you can't just have accomplice liability. they can't just have cohen's word alone it has to be corroborated by some other type of evidence. that's another thing to look out for on tuesday. >> ashley, talk about how the president and his team are

reacting you write it took them by surprise when the indictment came out the expectation was it was at least a few weeks away. >> a few weeks away or some people on trump's legal team were counseling him it might not happen at all. just a couple days ago trump put out a statement praising the grand jury that's something you do if you're increasingly beginning to think these charges against you may not come to fruition we have reporting that some people on his legal team were so sure nothing was going to happen that they were preparing to take a couple days off. it's interesting how trump has been handling this even in the days and weeks leading up to it, he's been resigned to the fact that this was going to end in an indictment and in good spirits believing through magical thinking and a public pressure campaign he could wish or tweet

or truth social this away. when it actually happened he was described as shocked, upset, deflated, but also fairly calm and stoic. garrett mentioned his familiar playbook we know about going after judges it's also been a familiar playbook how he answers to a controversy like this. he's gone into that comfortable and familiar position for him of defiance, trying to look to leverage this politically and turn himself into a victim which is where he's quite comfortable. >> i know that trump and his team this this will do a lot to galvanize his base and might turn out some extra base voters. are they having conversations about what this does to moderate republicans and independents, the ones who have not supported him or his allies, candidates,

in now an election cycle >> trump himself is focused on the short term galvanizing of his base he was pledging he would be defiant and fight this you bring up a good point. trump's base doesn't need galvanizing. they're trump's base they're always going to be with him. the people who he needed who are part of the reason why he lost the general election in 2020 to joe biden are those people you named, republicans who are more moderate, who are sick and tired of the chaos, who would like a nominee not facing criminal charges and other ongoing investigations suburban women voters, independents none of these people -- my reporting is the trump world has not turned their attention to

this just yet. we're 24 hours after the indictment these are the people who are not going to be galvanized by this. >> ladies, thank you very much joining me now is karen freedman that's for being here. i want to go over something we talked about before, but i think now is crucial to discuss, which is the strength of this case we don't know what the indictment says. we don't know if alvin bragg is relying on state allegations to mark this up to a felony don't know if he'll be talking about falsification of records and the underlying crime, the campaign finance violation, which is a federal violation if he does that, is the case going to be strong that legal theory has not yet been tested. how confident do you have to be to go after a former president

with an untested legal theory? >> it's untested it's not that it hasn't been brought before there have been several cases where it's been relied on a federal crime for falsification of documents when we were investigating the big banks. one of those banks pled guilty and the theory was -- it wasn't appealed because they pled guilty the case was brought it's not that it's never been done before, it's just never been tested. i'm not as bothered by the bump up to what makes the misdemeanor a felony it's that you intended to conceal a crime. i'm not as bothered by the legal theory as some people are. it would be one thing if the

element of the crime required you to have committed a crime or required you to have concealed a crime. it doesn't it requires you to have intended to do it, to have had the mindset when you falsified the business record, when you wrote those checks, when you made the entries in the ledger books, when you gave an invoice to the client as if to make it look like it was a retainer agreement as opposed to an illegal election interference payment. it only requires that you intended to commit or conceal a crime. i think that that's going to be much easier for the d.a.'s office to prove because of all the ways he tried -- trump tried to hide what the payments were for. i think that's why you'll see around 30 charges because there were 11 payments again, why didn't he make one lump sum payment

he structured it to make it look like it was a legal retainer to me that makes it look like there's a crime. for each of those checks and each of those payments they might be multiple documents generated and each one of those is false, each one will have a separate charge. >> what do you think -- what are you watching for when we see this indictment if it comes out as late as tuesday are you looking for it to be jumu information, or are you looking for it to more like we saw with the mueller investigation? when we would read indictments about the russia investigation, they were long and would tell a story. they were talking indictments. could this be that if it is, what does that say about the case >> i think this will be a talking indictment for sure. it will either -- they can do that one of two ways

they can do it by charging conspiracy because there was a conspiracy here between trump and others, including michael cohen and david pecker, to try and catch and kill stories to influence the election potentially they could charge conspiracy which to charge a conspiracy, that's what you -- you put language in there and tell the language of the story that makes it a talking indictment the other way they can do it, when you file a case, file a statement of facts i think they might do one of those here because there's so much speculation and interest in the case and i suspect that's what they'll do, one of those two things in this case. >> how much risk do you think alvin bragg is taking by bringing this case, this 7-year-old case about a hush money payment to a porn star do you think it's worth it a lot of republicans say you had

to dig deep to pull this out, this case that had fallen by the wayside. the doj hasn't pursued it. the fec didn't pursue it was this case worth it >> prosecutors aren't supposed to consider politics or political party or -- justice is supposed to be blind you follow the facts wherever they go and if it leads to a crime, by not bringing it, you would be treating him differently. >> they do have discretion. >> that's true you know, the people who say this isn't a worthwhile case, again, i guess you could also view it as it was the first donald trump looked to interfere with an election the second time being january 6th. that's number one. number two, all those 11 payments he made, those were made while he was a sitting

president of the united states i don't know how you just let that pass or let that slide given those factors just because -- the only reason you wouldn't bring the case is because he was president nobody is above the law. i think it's worthwhile. i think it's worth considering the fact that in case he is -- jack smith -- let's assume jack smith brings a case against him. if a republican wins the next election, donald trump or any other republican wins the next election, they can pardon donald trump for any convictions he has, except state prosecutions the manhattan district attorney's case and the fulton county georgia case, those are state prosecutions and he won't be able to pardon himself or another republican can't pardon him. >> we have to see if vonnie willis decides to bring charges

in the georgia case. thank you for coming on. coming up next, donald trump's lawyer says the payment was not a campaign finance violation. ken dilanian explains what the fec said about donald trump's involvement in the hush money payment. plus, what future presidents might be facing from local d.a.s and what it means for the down ballot house and senate races. who does it help and who does it hurt we're back in 60 seconds

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"today show" this morning arguing that not only is donald trump innocent, but the fec looked into it and said there was no crime ken dilanian is with me. ken, you call that statement misleading at best explain. >> yeah, because it's accurate that the fec took no action, the reason was not because they found no crime, but because the commission was paralyzed it's a bipartisan commission split evenly among democrats and republicans. they needed four votes to move ahead and they didn't have that. even though the general counsel of the commission which investigated the matter wrote in a document, in a report, back in august of 2020 that they recommended that the commission find that donald trump willfully violated campaign law by accepting a $130,000

contribution from michael cohen. the commission, once again, couldn't do anything because the republicans refused to go forward. the democrats didn't have enough votes. it didn't get a lot of attention at the time, katy. we thought this case was behind us the d.a. declined to do anything with it. now, it's relevant that those people that look at election law thought, yes, the law was violated. >> let me ask you about the difficulty here. is there difficulty when the doj has not brought a federal election case against donald trump? they put michael cohen in prison for a campaign finance violation. individual one was donald trump in that indictment they never brought a case against donald trump now alvin bragg is >> that's right. >> does that make it more difficult? >> it raises questions they didn't do it even after

trump left office when they could have indicted him. tacopina made the point that it's fair to say that's going to be a point of contention as the case goes forward. assuming though -- we don't know that's the fact that bragg is bringing forward as a crime. he could allege that new york state campaign finance -- which has its own issues it's a complicated case. it hasn't been brought before, but the grand jurors decided there was enough probable cause for an indictment. >> there's a saying a grand jury will indict a ham sandwich i know the doj isn't reacting and the administration wants to stay away from this. are you hearing anything behind

the scenes what they think about alvin bragg's decision to bring an indictment? >> i've seen some reporting that some people are annoyed. people are saying we'll keep on doing what we're doing we'll ignore this noise. there's some argument to be made this is not great for the jack smith investigation. you have republicans of all stripes saying this is a political prosecution. alvin bragg is a democrat. jack smith is not a democrat there's a risk all these investigations get blurred together this does not make people happen in the justice department. >> he's a war crimes prosecutor, worked out of the hague. ken, thank you very much. comingp, u what this means for future presidents. also, what vice president

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bragg indictment send? in the "new york times" peter baker worries about the long-term consequences for the presidency, not the least of which because the indictment is being brought by a local prosecutor, opening the door to prosecutors around the country taking it upon themselves to go

after a president. quote, it's not hard to imagine a conservative prosecutor trying to charge president biden with failing to adequately guard the border joining me now our chief legal correspondent, ari melber and douglas brinkley ari, peter baker was talking about a case in 2008 in vermont where voters approved resolutions accusing president bush and vice president cheney of crimes against the constitution they instructed their attorneys to draft indictments nothing came out of it what do you make of the legal theory this will make it easier for prosecutions for former presidents >> not much. it was a front page article in the "new york times. we cover everything. i appreciate you raising it. i don't know if you ever saw

"bane and the dark knight. he said you fight like a younger person, it's admirable, but mistaken that's how i felt about this story. it traffics in a lot of confusion out there. here's my factual rebuttal to it facing indictment after leaving the white house is not new today. nixon took the resignation bill clinton left office negotiating a deal with ken starr's replacement, losing his law license for five years because he faced the possibility of indictment. while trump is the first to be indicted, we have the people of new york versus donald trump,

and that is a huge deal and will affect him it does not break the seal on the notion of that being possible the vermont example is irrelevant because it refers to voters voting about what they want i would agree with the general concern voters shouldn't criminalize their political preferences. whether prosecutors take this up is a solid-evidence based process. in a legal process, donald trump is presumed innocent the burden is on the government. if he goes to trial and beats this, he will be just fine it will not knock him off base there are many people who think he will come out stronger on the other side i would wish anyone a fair process driven by evidence i think this hand wringing is a little ahistorical

>> he can serve as president even if he's in the middle of a crime. he can serve if he's convicted does the constitutional low him to serve if he's in prison, douglas? >> you know, e.j.debbs was in prison in the early part of the 20th century there's a possibility trump could be in prison, but not likely i think it's the spring of indictments. donald trump has been in legal jeopardy for -- dashing around with the law for 50 years since he worked with his father on housing projects the marble is that he become teflon don, nothing ever stuck to him he doesn't have this executive power anymore. he's as common a citizen as

jimmy carter you have to face the reality of the law. he's going to learn the hard way when he gets booked, mugshot, he may try to propagandize it, that it's a trump win and fundraise on it. it's something when you get in there and get your picture taken and you're known as the only president indicted, that sticks with you i don't think there's jubilation in trump land. i think, if anything is on trial, it's not on future presidents it's the criminal justice system we have to go through the steps. president biden has to make sure he doesn't say something to a report anti-trump right now. a lot of caution is necessary, but i think in the end we're looking at the american judicial system working right now >> he's already the owner of the title twice impeached president, the first president to serve

with no political experience or military service he's had all those firsts. none of those hurt him he's the gop frontrunner right now for the next presidential ps cycle. ari, we think the idea of a former president being indicted is not as big of a deal as we think it is. it puts us in the company of france and israel and italy, all of whom have indicted and charged and sometimes convicted past leaders. >> it's a great point, katy. netanyahu faces a trial, now he's fighting back doesn't mean you're destroyed in a rule of law where evidence can be assessed. there's many examples. yes, there will be a polarized

debate as with so many things in america of people who want to lie their way through this or claim that accountability is a prosecution. those claims will be tested in court. if a judge finds or a jury perceives this d.a. or this process has been politicized and it's not about the evidence, i think it would blow up in their face that's why we have an adversarial process. the burden is on the d.a.'s office, not the defendant. those things have to be tested in court not at mypillow.com or any place that recycles conspiracy theories. one more thing, katy, as we reflect on this -- i just looked at the filing, the people versus donald trump, defendant, we lived through an insurrection. we lived through an effort to overthrow democracy. the investigation in that case is open and ongoing. we're living through the normalizing of that.

people like lindsey graham who said count me out on january 6th because he thought -- mitch mcconnell who talked openly about after the impeachment there might be a trial of donald trump for what he did that day, this ain't over. we're in it because the guy who led the gathering -- he hasn't been convicting of inciting it he he led it. he's back to running for president. the attack on our democracy is live and well and happening now. it may get more tense as people around donald trump try to take the first real criminal accountability process that exists and pretend it's something else we're a long way from the hand wringing, oh, my god, what if the law is enforced? what if it's not what if we lose our democracy?

it's all interrelated. i'll end with another movie quote. we were reminded when mr. nicholson took the stand, the defendant has rights i'm a member of the bar still. i'll stand with people who say we'll make sure this defendant is afforded every right even though he tried to deny that to others while he was president. let's make sure we're upholding the rule of law. >> we can handle the truth, my friend ari melber, thank you very much. coming up, donald trump is going after the judge assigned to his arraignment what happens if the judge issues a gag order? first up, two more years of donald trump on capitol hill will this indictment affect who controls congress after 2024

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president of the united states on campaign finance issues sends a terrible message to the wider world about american justice i have to tell you, there are dictators and authoritarians around the world that will point to that to justify their own abuse of their own so-called justice system so i am very troubled by it.

i think the american people will see through it. >> former vice president mike pence was forced to respond to donald trump's indictment, so will every other republican lawmaker and presidential candidate for the next two years. does the looming spector of donald trump help or hurt republicans? joining me now is jonathan allen and ali vitale congress all republicans have not done well in the last election cycles. does donald trump being in the news every day help or hurt them in 2024? >> reporter: it makes it harder for them to talk about anything other than donald trump. house republicans like to say they're using their majority to do things like further an energy

policy and priorities they have on education, but the focus remains on trump i saw speaker mccarthy getting frustrated by the split focus and questions from reporters that go between what republicans want to do and what they're being forced to do by trump, which is play defense for him. that's not where they want to be and, you're right, it could have bad consequences. >> what about the republican field, the would-be republican presidential nominees, jonathan? >> we've seen them bind to trump here and there's two things that that suggests. there's a group of republicans that think that is a politically-motivated attack against donald trump number two, it shows how afraid these candidates are of getting on the wrong side of the trump base that they would need if they took the nomination from

him. they would need those voters to show up for them we've seen ron desantis who had a slow response to trump saying he was going to be arrested about a week and a half ago and then come out and say something that led to criticism. yesterday he was quick to get out there against this indictment he doesn't want a problem with that base he'll need. >> he didn't mention donald trump by name. seems like he's trying to thread a very small needle. >> trump supporters call him out for that all over social media and in other venues and say that he should use trump's name it's a no-win situation for desantis he would love to be able to contrast himself with donald trump, but when the rest of the party is binding to the former president and coming to his support, there's not a lot of room for desantis to do that. >>on jathan and ali, thank you coming up, donald trump

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surrender on tuesday and appear in court at 2:15 and then fly out right after that joining me now is the executive editor of news at the newyorker.com. dav david, what's the advice from former prosecutors to alvin bragg? >> to not play into trump's hands by responding to things he's going to say on social media. he went after one of the lead prosecutors today on his truth social platform saying he was biased and out to get him. then these prosecutors said the big challenge will be for the judge in the case. it's the judge who has to make sure that trump, when he's attacking people online or on

camera isn't trying to intimidate jurors who will decide his fate. >> explain that. i've always wondered if donald trump goes to trial, who wants to sit on that jury? it could potentially be scary if donald trump is going after the prosecutor and the judge, who's to say he might not not go after the jurors if he's convicted >> that's the big question he's good -- if you look at what happened to robert mueller he had tremendous support, including by republicans over the course of the investigation, trump was able to drive down support for mueller and trust in mueller among republicans. he'll do the same thing through this trial it's a different situation when trump is arraigned and becomes a defendant, he's agreeing to obey certain orders in the courtroom issued by the judge. there's a past example of what can happen here. when roger stone, the trump

associate who -- you know he was known for dirty tricks when he was on trial, roger stone posted a picture of the federal judge in his case with a cross hair beside her face the judge said that was not allowed and issued a partial gag order that barred roger stone from posting online in any form. you can see if that was done to donald trump, he would say his first amendment rights were being restrained that's the challenge for the judge. how do you give trump a fair trial? how due ro you respect his firs amendment rights >> if this trial gets delayed and starts next year, how do you do it in the middle of a presidential race, presidential primary or general election race william barr just commented. i want to play that sound.

>> it's the abuse of the prosecutorial function to engage in a political hit job it's a disgrace if it turns out to be what we think it is. politically it's going to be damaging, i think, to the republican party simply because i think it's a no lose situation for the democrats. i think the emphasis is to help trump get the nomination legally i think it's, from what i understand, it's a pat pathetically weak case. >> david, what do you think about what barr is saying? >> he's expressing his opinion and saying it's a plot by democrats to get alvin bragg to bring this case so that trump secures the nomination i don't think that's what's

happening here it's a commentary on our times there's such fear on both sides. i'm working on a book on the justice department under trump and biden. there's many good people who work in the department, but there's conspiracy theories on both sides barr commuted the sentence of roger stone and democrats called that disgraceful it's a sign of the depth of polar polarization, the fear -- each side thinking they're defending justice and democracy and the other side is plotting against them it's a difficult time, but this trial should go forward. donald trump should get a fair trial and people should accept the verdict. it could be an acquittal >> i was going to add that we're all starting to say who appointed judges, trump judge, biden judge, obama judge it makes the justice system seem

political. david, thank you very much for joining us that does it for me today. "deadline white house" is next live every moment. glucerna. hi, i'm john and i'm from dallas, texas. my wife's name is joy. we've been married 45 years. i'm taking a two-year business course. i've been studying a lot. i've been producing and directing for over 50 years. it's a very detailed thing and the pressure's all on me.

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