reporting is emerging as the top candidate. this is a former obama administration official. he is a pilot. he is a lawyer. he has extensive experience in the airline industry beforehand. so this may be a situation that even this fractured senate can come behind. if not, it is unclear who, if anyone, could get the nomination, who could get the confirmation at this point. >> so much good stuff from our friend margaret talev this morning. margaret, thank you. and thanks to all of you for getting up "way too early" with us on this tuesday morning. "morning joe" starts right now. the president and i had a very close working relationship for four years. didn't end well. thought about peace in the middle east. obviously, it didn't end well. for four years, we had a close working relationship. it did not end well. our administration didn't end

well. it didn't end well. our administration did not end well. obviously, the administration did not end well. obviously, the administration did not end well. the administration didn't end well. it obviously didn't end well. it didn't end well. it did not end well. i think i'm very clear in saying that the administration did not end well. >> hang mike pence! hang mike pence! >> yeah, that's not the fairy tale ending that you kind of hope for. >> tend to agree. it could be a while before we see new material from the late night talk shows. they're expected to go dark during the hollywood writers' strike, which started at midnight on the west coast. it's the first major labor-related work stoppage in 15 years. meanwhile, on capitol hill this morning, there is more pressure on lawmakers and the white house to reach a deal on the debt ceiling. following a new warning from the treasury department. we'll also have the latest on the first republic banking collapse. the third financial institution

to go bust since march. what does that mean moving forward? also ahead, an update on the civil rape trial against donald trump, as his accuser takes the stand for the third day. we're learning more, also, about the staggering toll out of eastern europe, with new reports that russia may have suffered as many as 100,000 casualties since december. and a republican candidate in the 2024 presidential race is doubling down on attacks about president biden's age. we're going to have those comments for you and more about that. is that all they have? good morning. welcome to "morning joe." it's tuesday, may 2nd. >> what does that mean, mika? >> i don't know. >> it's mika's birthday, ladies and gentlemen. >> happy birthday, mika. >> i know. [ applause ] >> i'm still here. i can't believe it, actually. i walked into 30 rock, and i was like, i was wrong about everything, everything, including this. >> here we are. >> 56.

>> here we are. >> i started this show at 40, and 56. 50 over 50, man. >> still here. good motto. >> your birthday tomorrow. >> yes. >> we're still here, why? what? so joe is on assignment. we'll celebrate your birthday tomorrow. >> we go back-to-back. every year it's like that. >> no cup cakes? >> i didn't get a cup cakes? >> warm yogurt. >> smoothie coming at 9:00. >> am i getting presents or anything? >> we have a big -- in the 9:00 hour. it's still in the planning stages. >> we have time to figure it out. >> alex just told me the show is a gift enough. >> aw. >> four hours. four hours. >> big, long day. >> you know it is, actually. this is such a blessing, and we are so blessed. not to, like, get -- but this is really -- we're so blessed. >> right. >> this is a really, true honor. >> it is. >> all right. along with willie and me, we have the host of "way too early," white house bureau chief at "politico," jonathan lemire. i won't make fun of you today. >> really? is that your birthday gift to me? >> yeah. you know what, i can't help it. >> actually, today, you get a

free pass. as much as you want. >> as much as you want. >> he is always here, every day. former aide to the george h. bush statehouse, elise jordan. and associate editor of "the washington post," eugene robinson joins us. >> happy birthday. >> thank you very much. i appreciate it. we have a lot to talk about. i want to jump ahead to the b block. did you see kevin mccarthy on ukraine? >> a russian reporter challenged him on the american support for ukraine, and speaker mccarthy went back hard at this russian reporter. >> slow clap. it was his best moment as speaker of the house, and nothing bad to say about that. it was a really -- we'll get to it. have a bigger conversation about the state of the war in ukraine. the speaker of the house really planting a flag on what needed to be said from that side. >> he did. it was his strongest comments yet on ukraine, in particular. we'll play that in a moment. we do begin this morning with the latest in that deadly mass shooting in texas. the suspect still on the run

this morning, as more than 250 now officers from local, state and federal agencies continue the search for the man accused of fatally shooting five of his neighbors, including a 9-year-old child. authorities investigated two possible sightings of the gunman, including two lockdowns of schools, but neither panned out. searchers had recovered the gunman's rifle, cell phone and some clothing, but they believe he may still have another weapon with him. right now, there is an $80,000 reward for information leading to his arrest. joining us now from cleveland, texas, nbc news correspondent sam brock. sam, good morning. what's the state of the search here? >> reporter: willie, good morning. right now, there is a thick fog surrounding cleveland, texas, to the point where you can barely see about 5 or 10 feet in front of you. those are the conditions right now that investigators are trying to find

francisco orepeza. it is improbable the person would be cornered by investigators in a 2-mile search field and, somehow, be able to elude them. this was on saturday. as you mentioned, his cell phone was being tracked. clothes, there was a scent this. investigators found both but not the suspect. i'm in cleveland. you see the sign, "wanted for murder," in spanish, this man. the mailboxes next to it, this is a residential area. highly wooded, mud roads leading to places where it is hard to see where you are going. these are the topographical challenges that investigators, 250 plus of them, are still going for right now. we are going to be rubbing up against 96 hours with no answers. as you talk to people, they are frightened, some of them, to leave their homes, because they have absolutely no idea where this guy is. he could be somewhere in texas. he could have left the country.

investigators have not provided an update, at least there was nothing yesterday other than the multiple false alarms you specified, one at a local landfill, another near five or six schools where there were sightings of someone who looked like him. there were incredible amounts of resources marshalled there to investigate. turns out, it was nothing. we've learned devastating details from the father, wilson garcia, of the 9-year-old boy, daniel, who was murdered. he contacted police, he and his family, five times over the course of about 30 minutes, and it took that amount of time for police to come. i believe he specifically said 20. his brother-in-law said 30 in another report, that he was inside his closet, this is his brother-in-law, calling police with his wife and child, telling them there was an immediate need to get there. the dispatcher said folks were already on the ground. that was not the case. we reached out to the county to find out how long did it take to get there, and how much calls were placed.

they didn't have the information, but they have ten days to respond. that's the aftermath. right now, there is an immediate need to find where this individual is. as far as the background information, we also learned there was a pre-existing relationship between wilson's wife and the wife of the suspect, that they were friends. the suspect himself, orapesa, came to his house and helped cut down a tree. how do we get from that to what transpired on friday, where there is a mass murder? so many questions that need to be pieced together. wilson garcia say his son saw his mother fall to the ground and tried to help her, and that's when the 9-year-old boy was shot. this urgent search continues, now in day four. right now, no idea, at least no word from investigators, as to where they stand in tracking down a murderer. >> in terms of that response time, sam, we did hear, although the sheriff's department hasn't responded directly, that they only have about three sheriffs and sheriffs deputies that cover

about 700 square miles. that could play into it. a lot more questions to be answered there. what more do we know about the suspect, the man that police still now, all these days later, are looking for, sam? authorities say he was an undocumented immigrant from mexico, had been deported at least four times. questions there about how he got his hands on the guns. then you touched on it a bit, but the relationship with the neighbors. as you say, it is unconscionable. what motive could there possibly be for a horrific crime here? >> reporter: yeah, a lot of good questions there. in terms of the relationship, you know, one of the neighbors of this family said, we sent our kids to school together, parties together. orapesa had done work for him. he said, he never raised his voice, no consternation. to think he could get to this violence was out of the realm of possibility. that was someone living next door to the murder suspect. on the background, you're right,

i.c.e. confirming he was physically removed from the country in 2009, again in 2012, again in 2016, and there was a dwi on his record dating back to 2009. that's, of course, small compared to the rest of the landscape of what we're talking about right now. four deportations. politicians, of course, jumped right in. governor abbott here in texas discussing the illegal status, not just of the suspect in this case, but also of the family that was slaughtered. a lot of criticism as to why that was relevant in any way. john cornyn, senator from texas, weighing in, saying that the actions of a criminal should not reflect tens or millions of law-abiding immigrants. he also said this is an example of how there are devastating impacts for not enforcing laws at our border. you're seeing the politicization of the situation, with pushback, certainly. with respect to the shooter's background, not just that, there were calls to his house. the sheriff couldn't specify how many or when, of him discharging his rifle on the lawn of the house. there was a history there, but

not a criminal history. again, more of the mystery of how this one man could seemingly snap and commit the unconscionable act. >> the search continues across texas. sam brock, thanks so much. we appreciate it. mika? eugene, you have a new piece in "the washington post," "a gun transforms another commonplace interaction into carnage." put the governor's description of the immigrants, calling them illegal immigrants in his statement aside, the victims. >> yeah. >> there is this growing sense of unease about, not just our schools, about not just our churches, about not just our dance halls, about not just our country music festivals, but now commonplace interactions. going to the wrong house, going into the wrong driveway, and now a new level has been reached. you write about it. tell us about it. >> yeah, no, it was a noise complaint, right? he was making too much noise

next door, firing his gun unsafely. i mean, didn't like that either. there were relatives staying over at the house. there was a baby in the house. they were trying to get the baby to sleep, and so it is a noise complaint. how many times have you had problems with a neighbor who was making too much noise? how many times has a neighbor who had trouble, you know, or problems with you when you were making too much noise, running leaf blowers or something like that? so these things get settled normally. you know, it's a common, everyday interaction in every community, in every country in the world. the difference is that in other countries, people don't all have guns. they don't have ar-15s. these things, these normal disputes don't end up in this sort of tragedy. this was committed with an ar style rifle, which is, you know, an assault weapon. it is a weapon of war. why is it in anyone's hands, let

alone this man, any civilian, why? why? there is a new poll from fox news out last week that says 61% of americans want a ban on assault weapons. that's in addition to the 8%, 90% who want universal background checks, red flag laws, all the things we've talked about year after year after year as the death toll mounts. yet, these things don't happen. >> well -- >> and it's just horrific. >> calling out hypocrisy here, you know, i know we talked a lot here about the governor yesterday, but, you know, every time one of these happens, elise, there will be republicans who say, "this is not the time to politicize guns. this is the wrong time. how dare you politicize guns at a time like this, when people are in mourning."

yet, you know, they immediately want to jump to the politics of immigration and the politics of using words like that. again, in this case, an ar-15 is used. the common denominator in all of these events is the gun. yet, there's no movement, barely any. >> and it's just a human tragedy over and over and over. i can so relate to wanting a fussy baby to go to sleep, and someone shooting an ar-15 next door, i would be livid. >> it is legit to ask them to stop. >> i would have been yelling, "stop shooting your damn gun so my baby can go to sleep." you wouldn't expect this kind of psychotic response because the guy had an ar-15. the country is against it. eugene just quoting the polling.

this is just an area where republican lawmakers are extremists compared to where their voters are, even republican voters. >> and the tragedy, this tragedy just adds to the list of people who are getting shot and killed for everyday occurrences. someone who pulls into the wrong driveway. >> yup. >> someone who knocks on the wrong door. someone who touches the wrong door of a car. the response is to be shot to death. here, a noise complaint, "hey, keep it down. my baby is trying to sleep." he walks in there and lays waste to a family, including a child who was trying to help his mother, and he is shot. it's because of the access to guns. it's because of the access to guns. willie, there is, to the points eugene and el elise made, there's no momentum in congress. we hear the same statements from the white house. we know they've tried their best. they've exhausted their list of executive orders. nothing more substantial can be

done without congress. we saw modest legislation last year. there seems to be no appetite for that even this time. >> that came in the wake of the uvalde shooting almost a year ago. you get the sense that republicans say, we gave you something after that. we're not going much further. we'll be back to this story later on in the show. for the first time in 15 years, hollywood writers are going on strike this morning. the union representing thousands of movie and television writers says members, quote, voted unanimously to go on strike in a dispute over pay and staffing after their three-year contract expired midnight pacific time. screenwriters are going to walk the picket lines this afternoon. production of many broadcast shows, streaming series and some movies will come to a halt. late night talk shows expected to be among the first to go dark this week. the alliance of motion picture and television producers, which bargains on behalf of hollywood companies, released a statement, that its offer included generous increases in compensation for writer. the organization added it

remained willing to continue negotiating. joining us now, anchor of cnbc's "worldwide exchange," frank holland. frank, good morning. what specifically is at issue here? there's obviously an entirely new world of streaming. there's artificial intelligence. >> correct. >> of course, the question of pay. what is the debate here? >> first and foremost, america is calling for the members to hit the picket line starting today, as you mentioned, after they failed to reach the contract. the writers argue they suffered financially, as streaming boomed in part due to shorter seasons, and also smaller residual payments. we have to keep in mind, the last writers strike happened 15 years ago. it was a different landscape with television, movies. there was no streaming platforms or anything out there. while we saw a disruption in entertainment options, it had a bigger impact to california's economy. it cost $2 billion. there's serious financial ramifications. in addition to ramifications for the different entertainment companies. >> president biden is promising

continued action to keep america's banking system, quote, safe and sound. the comments come after first republic became the third major bank to collapse in less than two months when it was taken over by the fdic and sold to jpmorgan chase. the president held a small business event at the white house yesterday and said the move protects depositors and small businesses. >> let me be very clear, all depositors are being protected. shareholders are losing their investments. critically, taxpayers are not the ones that are on the hook. going forward, i've called on congress to give regulators the tools to hold bank executives accountable, and i've called on regulators to strengthen regulations and supervision of large and regional banks. folks, we have to make sure that we're not back in this position again. i think we're well on our way to

make that assurance. >> frank, the president sounding confident there, but this is the second largest bank failure in american history and the largest since the 2008 financial crisis. >> right. >> how confident is wall street and others about this being the end of the line? >> you know, wall street has continued to digest this acquisition of first republic by jpmorgan chase. it's seen as a win for jpmorgan, the deal given the big bank that already has more than 10% of all u.s. depositors, $90 billion in depositors. a wrinkle, $30 billion are from a march cash infusion by jpmorgan and ten other large banks to keep this bank solvent. for jpmorgan, it is a one-time gain of $2.6 billion and $500 million in new profit annually. the 2.6 is a one-time thing, excluding cost. bigger for the united states, our economy, this just raises new questions about regional banking. if we're creating too big to

fail and too small to succeed, what does this mean going forward, if we have so much deposit concentration in the big banks? also, tightening credit conditions, how will it change how you and i get a mortgage, a car loan, how people start small businesses? a lot of other ramifications as this unfolds. we have one more for you while we quickly turn to the fight over the debt ceiling. treasury secretary janet yellen warning the federal government could face default as early as june 1st. sooner than previously expected. the reduced timeline increases the urgency for the white house and congress to get on the same page. between now and june 1st, there are only eight legislative days in which both the senate and the house are in session at the same time. president biden briefly addressed yellen's announcement yesterday. >> folks, with we have a lot to do, and most immediate thing we can do is ensure the continuing reliance of your economy and the

financial system. most important thing we have to do in that regard is make sure the threat by the speaker of the house, the default on the national debt is off the table. for over 200 years, america has never, ever, ever failed to pay its debt. we pay our bills, and we should do so without reckless hostage taking from some of the maga republicans in congress. >> frank, if you could explain the consequences if we do default. >> looking at the wall street futures just now, fluctuating as we weigh the possible default, and also the fed raising rates. we don't want to understate how big of a deal this is. janet yellen's letter warning he could hit the limit june 1st, so much earlier than expected. last week, we saw a lot of estimates, the consensus estimates saying we'll reach it in july, giving lawmakers more breathing room. it is a big deal, the possibility of the u.s. to default. time is not on our side when it

comes to the congressional negotiations. house is off this week, and it haas a limited amount of working days on the calendar. same story for the senate. democrats are also insisting of a, quote, clean debt limit, as the president eluded to. a debt limit increase with no conditions at all, while republicans are calling for spending cuts and passing a bill with $4.8 trillion in deficit savings over the next decades. the credit of the united states potentially becoming a political football. the president calling lawmakers to the white house on may 9th, one week from today, to hammer out the deal. on my show, "worldwide exchange" at 5:00 a.m. eastern, we heard an expert from d.c. saying the most likely outcome would be a short-term extension, giving us more breathing room, similar to what we saw in 2021. >> cnbc's frank holland -- >> mika, one more thing. >> yeah? >> happy birthday. >> aw, that's nice. >> willie, happy pre-birthday. surprised you guys are working. >> happy birthday.

we should do a joint cake. >> it'd save some time. >> carrot cake? >> i don't know if i'm invited. >> frank is inviting himself and wants a carrot cake, okay. >> it's his birthday. happy birthday, frank. >> thank you, frank. >> cnbc's frank holland. >> setting the menu, i like it. >> yeah. >> back to the debt ceiling, john. the white house posture has always been, we're not negotiating over this. this is something that happens every couple years, we do it, get it done. but speaking mccarthy's tact has been to use this as a negotiating tool. mika said, there's only eight days left, though it is a month off. eight days where the senate and the house are both around to get something done here. how does this end? >> the calendar is even shorter than that. first of all, mccarthy is overseas right now and will be another week or so. the president is about to get overseas. the middle of may, he is in asia and australia for more than a week. there aren't many days where the players are all going to be in town to be able to talk about this. the meeting next week does loom large.

right now, these sides are nowhere close. they're not talking. >> yeah. >> public statements are talking past each other. the white house is saying the debt limit, past spending. it's come up with republican presidents, and we lift it, go to the next thing. they said, we'll talk spending cut, but we do that in the budget process. mccarthy is trying to have the two things happen at once. there are a few other variables here. there is some thought there could be a short-term solution, maybe mitch mcconnell and senator schumer would step in and try to create a few months to kick the can down the road a little bit. there's no momentum yet. mcconnell is deferring to mccarthy, taking his tact. the white house is simply saying, we're not budging. i have new reporting out this morning, they're saying, we know the calendar has gotten shorter, but we are now where we thought we'd be a few months from now, but we're not changing our tactics. we need to get this done and get it done now. but there is grave concern here. >> elise, does speaker mccarthy

think he is going to extract something from the white house who said, "we're not playing this game with you? we'll talk about the budget in a separate conversation." or is he signaling to members of the base that made him speaker, members of his own party i should say, who said, "you have to do something about the debt and deficit if you want our vote?" >> well, he is -- he is playing a very risky game here. >> yeah. >> i think that mccarthy has to do it, just to placate those voters in his coalition. whether he would get that much from biden, i don't know if it's that important at this phase. he just needs to get something. he needs to have some face-saving move. unfortunately, it looks like biden is holding firm, but if this actually happens and we default, it looks worse for biden than republicans. >> yeah, last point on that, the white house thinks the other, they think the politics are on their side. americans can understand, this is something you need to do. but to elise's point, if we do default, it is bad for everyone, but it is certainly bad for a president who is running for re-election. >> exactly. >> if the economy collapses.

>> maybe they bring in a carrot cake from frank holland, dissolve the whole thing. >> carrot cake. >> the holland carrot cake. >> thank you, frank. we'll have to have him at the table. >> absolutely. >> i guess he wants some cake. still ahead on "morning joe," the woman accusing donald trump of rape and defamation gets grilled by the former president's lawyers. we'll take a look at what happened during that intense cross-examination. and as we mentioned at the top of the show, house speaker kevin mccarthy appears to change his tone when it comes to sending aid to ukraine. what he had to say to a russian reporter yesterday. also this morning, we'll be joined by the u.s. surgeon general, who is out with a new warning about what he calls a profound public health concern. loneliness. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back.

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before we get to our next guest, we have breaking news from what we were just talking about. >> speaker mccarthy says he will accept the invitation to the white house next week. mccarthy, schumer, the president of the united states will start having these discussions about raising the debt ceiling, about the budget and, on the announcement by yellen we could default on june 1st. on the topic of speaker mccarthy, joining us now, richard haass. house speaker kevin mccarthy has been in israel the past few days. yesterday, he became the second speaker ever to address israel's parliament. in his speech, mccarthy said his goal was to reaffirm the bipartisan support that israel

has in the u.s. congress, but he also made headlines for something he said when speaking to the media after his address. asked by a russian reporter about future u.s. aid to ukraine, mccarthy offered his strongest words yet on the war in europe. listen. >> we know that you don't support the current unlimited and uncontrolled supplies of weaponry and aid to ukraine, so can you comment, is it possible if, in the near future, the u.s. policy regarding sending weapon weaponry to ukraine will change? >> the sound isn't good, did he say i don't support aid to ukraine? no, i vote for aid for ukraine. i support aid for ukraine. i do not support what your country has done to ukraine. i do not support your killing of the children either. and i think for one standpoint, you should pull out. i don't think it's right. we will continue to support

because the rest of the world sees it just as it is. >> wow. as a frequent critic of kevin mccarthy, i just want to say, that was amazing. richard haass, also, much needed in terms of how some republicans were very carefully parsing their words about aid to ukraine, and that's saying it mildly. this was resounding and in an incredible situation, too. >> it was good for several reasons. >> yeah. >> one, it was a great message to russia, for them to hear, because they're counting -- you know, they're saying the republicans aren't going to support aid. they're wrong. this will come up again in the summer or fall. it was also good he said it in israel. >> yeah. >> israel has been hedging its bets all along between russia and ukraine. the fact that mccarthy was that clear, that black and white on this issue was actually good. you know, doesn't get rid of all the questions about whether we're going to have all the ammunition and equipment to send them. we can't sustain the rate the war is using it up. doesn't solve problems of

manpower for ukraine. as a political signal, really good. >> i really liked that he -- that was his message on foreign soil. we can debate spending -- >> to a russian reporter. >> -- aid. on foreign soil, he is united with the u.s. president. it harkens back to that moment where there was so much more bipartisanship in foreign policy. it was nice to see that. >> also points out the fact, john, while kevin mccarthy hasn't ever been as strong as he was there, most republicans, mitch mcconnell especially, leadership of the republican party, has supported ukraine. there are those loud voices that we talk about all the time that have been talking about maybe pulling back entirely or at least not making it a blank check, in their words, but this really is broadly the position of the party. >> yeah, no doubt. this is the strongest he has been in terms of supporting ukraine and denouncing what russia has done. i'll parse a little bit, though. he's never said that we shouldn't support ukraine. he said it shouldn't be unlimited support. he didn't say differently here. that's still a debate that could

be coming this summer or fall, is to whether or not, especially if the counteroffensive, richard, as you and i have been talking about, if it doesn't go as well as ukraine hopes it does, could that impact the calculation as to the funding that comes? what also should be noted, his strong support of ukraine comes after a very prominent voice on cable news, on fox news, is no longer on the air, a voice that was very skeptical of u.s. efforts. >> jonathan, you're so cynical. no, you're right, there will be a debate depending on how the offensive goes. if the battlefield looks like it does today, plus or minus a few miles, there will be a debate in europe and the united states, is this worth it? will another year of fighting change the basics? that debate is coming. it is important this year be a test of the strategy. give ukraine support, aircraft perhaps, more munitions. see what happens. see what the chinese do, if they support them. it is close to inevitable, we'll have a first order debate on

ukraine late fall or early winter about where we're going there. >> well, let's look at where it is right now. we're learning more about the casualty estimates for russia. john kirby said yesterday the united states estimates that russia has suffered 100,000 casualties since december. of that number, more than 20,000 russian troops were killed in action. according to kirby, half of those killed were working for the wagner mercenary group, whose leader reportedly told a pro-war russian blogger over the weekend he'd be forced to withdraw his troops from the key city of bakhmut if they are not resupplied with ammunition soon. the russians are -- there's a lot of tension about whether or not is some of these troops are being forced into battle for russia because of casualties like this, because they're just taking so many losses, that they need more. >> yeah, i'm not sure either country is on a sustainable

trajectory, to be perfectly honest, in terms of manpower. this is world war i. the rate of carnage is stunning. russians are throwing a lot of untrained young men into battle. can't sustain probably the rates of munitions use, of equipment getting churned up. so i think, you know, another possibility is even if negotiations don't succeed, mika, i can imagine a situation where, in six months, simply the intensity of the battle goes down. the war continues, but it is not at the sort of rates. i don't think either side can keep this up long. >> let's bring in hal brands, senior fellow at the american enterprise institute and editor of the new book entitled "the new makers of modern strategy, from the ancient world to the digital age." kind of an interesting touchpoint given what richard just said, hal. we'll dive into your book and start with the state of the war in ukraine today.

is it sustainable, these world war i levels of fighting in the modern age, and what is the u.s. strategy, what are the potentials for u.s. strategy to kind of perhaps try and move this forward in terms of supporting ukraine in a stronger way so that this doesn't drag out in such a bloody way as it already has? >> so i think the cool reality to this conflict is that it is actually going to take higher levels of support for ukraine than it has received so far in order to not allow it to make the breakthroughs that would let it liberate its territory and bring the conflict to an end. the ukrainians have a good shot in the current offensive at moving the front lines somewhat, but it may not be likely they're able to retake the territory russia has conquered since february 2014 when they took crimea. we're likely to see a war that drags on beyond this offensive, perhaps beyond this year, so it is going to take a fairly long-term american commitment to ensure ukrainian security.

>> hal, what does this war, this last year tell you about the modern strategy that you write about in this book? which is to say, the rallying of the west to the aid of ukraine, the strengthening of nato, the addition of a new member to nato. what has this war done, or at least told you about modern strategy? >> i think one thing it's done is to puncture the myth of putin as the master strategist. we spent about 15 years thinking that putin was the judo master who could simply hold all the reins of power in his hands and deploy it skillfully to get what he wanted. he's done it in a few small conflicts, but he's fallen on his face in this one. he underestimated the ukrainian resistance, underestimated the west bringing a powerful response. he surely underestimated the degree to which this would drag down russian power certainly in the moment and in years to come.

>> this is richard haass. the book is one that several of us read in earlier editions in school. we're on a cusp of new technologies. a.i., obviously, all sorts of advances in computing and the rest. what is your thinking about what -- how the traditional quote, unquote, laws of war, the lessons we thought we learned, how do you think this plays out in an age of chat gpt, of a.i., precision guidance, robotics and the rest? do the classic rules still apply, or are we entering a different era. >> the basic principles of strategy don't change a whole lot over time. they're relatively timeless. but the practice of strategy changes enormously as we get new leaders, new countries rising and falling, and, as you point out, new technologies that come to the floor. i can give a couple examples of this. a.i., in particular, which has been on everyone's mind, is going to revolutionize the way that disinformation is done. it is going to make possible the

creation, very cheaply, of very sophisticated disinformation that will put democracies like the united states on their back back foot, at least initially. it'll also make possible some complex operations like drone swarms and human machine teaming that would have been impossible to do even ten yeas earlier. >> gene? >> richard, question for you. we have this estimate of 100,000 russian casualties. do you have a sense of what ukraine's casualties are like in a comparable period? obviously, the war is tough on both sides, but do we have a sense of what ukraine is losing? >> we have a sense, but the ukrainians have been very, very careful, very guarded in letting the information out. you know, obviously, in terms of managing the domestic and international response. in many of these situations, we have to assume it is really high. when offenses try to dislodge dug-in troops, such as what ukraine is doing in parts of the

east, we've got to assume the manpower losses are high. it is also probably a lot of their best troops. it's again, gene, why a lot of military people in the pentagon and elsewhere simply think ukraine cannot sustain the warfare they've been on indefinitely. too many of their best, most trained troops have suffered casualties. >> all right. the new book is entitled "the new makers of modern strategy from the ancient world to the digital age." hal brands, thank you very much for being on the show this morning. coming up, the latest on the 2024 republican primary field, including new comments from nikki haley, doubling down on her criticism of president biden's age. plus, we'll be joined by two democratic members of the senate judiciary committee amid concern over ethical lapses at the supreme court. "morning joe" will be right back.

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>> john, you're a celtics guy. that looked like harden from ten years ago. embiid is out. he knew what he had to do and scored 45. >> harden was great, credit to him. celtics were also incredibly

sloppy, turnovers down the stretch. a brutal loss at home when the sixers don't have embiid. sixers can probably rest embiid in game two to give more time. they've already, mission accomplished, got one on the road. this is who the celtics are. they make things hard for themselves each and every time. this comes from the shell shocked crowd seeing the bruins get knocked out in the same building. >> bruins had the best regular season in nhl history. knicks out tonight. randle likely won't play. brunson is beat up. must-win, obviously. >> they go down 0-2 going to miami, that's it. the season is on the line. they made 20% of their three pointers the other night. you cannot win in the nba shooting bricks like that. >> they'll be better tonight. they got woken up. >> credit to jimmy butler, so good down the stretch. >> he's questionable tonight, as

well, with a bad ankle. in denver, the top seeded nuggets grabbed a 2-0 series lead over the suns, beating phoenix 97-87. 39 points from the two-time mvp, jokic. chris paul, future hall of famer, limped off the court with a groin injury in the third quarter. things not going well for phoenix. it shifts back to phoenix for friday nights. hockey last night, rangers and devils. rangers had no answers for new jersey in newark last night. jersey dominating on defense. the rookie goalie making 31 saves for his second shutout of the playoffs. he took over as the devil's starter in game three with his team trailing 2-0 in the series. they came back to win the whole thing last night. devils winning game seven, 4-0, advancing to play the hurricanes in the second round. game one tonight night in raleigh, north carolina. and the devils trolled the rangers a bit, their rival

across the river, on twitter after the series-clinching win last night. playing off the rangers postseason hype video, which featured the great liam neeson reprising his speech from the film "taken." >> listen to me very carefully, i don't know who you are, i don't know what you're looking for, but i can tell you this, you better start watching the new york rangers in the nhl stanley cup playoffs. got it? >> come on, that's great. liam, a rangers fan. the devils released their own version of the ad after game seven with the help of actor patrick warburton. he is the devil's superfan, david putty, on "seinfeld." >> listen to me very carefully. i don't know who you are or what you are looking for. i can tell you this -- >> who is this? oh, this is round two right now, so i think you're looking for the golf course.

yeah, yeah, buh-bye now. >> oh. >> devils giving it to the rangers. >> nice. >> before we let you go, rich richard, how was the met gala? the half shirt, your tribute to carl lagerfeld. >> he deserved it. >> he was in the cat suit. >> richard, he doesn't even know what i'm talking about. >> yeah. >> bless you, richard haass. >> so cute. >> i was at home reading "foreign affairs." >> in a half shirt. >> yeah. >> that is our coverage of the met gala. i actually really found some of the, well, we can talk, elise. >> yes. >> actually -- >> there was a cat. >> the cat one was interesting. >> here's a cat. >> i love the vintage -- >> that's not the one. i don't like those at all. >> looks like the "masked singer." >> huh-uh, it's like a whole cat outfit, no.

>> no? >> there was a woman who had an elegant. >> oh, yeah. >> does anybody wear these a second time? >> no, no, just for the -- >> one-off? >> yeah. >> okay. >> which is how that -- >> the suit, you're never going to wear it again. >> it's furry. >> no giggling. we have a history. >> i know. >> furry things. >> last night, i was talking to the mascot of georgetown, and it was freaking me out. i have a picture. >> richard even looks less certain of this now. >> the bulldog? >> yeah. >> who am i? why am i? >> it was the whole thing, okay. >> yeah. >> richard haass, thank you, very much for being on this morning. >> richard is out of here. >> i'm shook. still ahead, we'll have a look at the stories making front page headlines across the country. also ahead, we'll dig into a bipartisan bill that is returning to the senate floor, focused on protecting kids from

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free press" reports general motors laid off several hundred contract employees. it comes after 500 workers voluntarily left the company. they're trying to shave more off the budget by the end of next year. >> "the washington times" in d.c. leads with a survey that finds more students are choosing colleges based on their political beliefs. according to a new gallup poll, 72% of college students say abortion laws in their school's state influenced whether they wanted to stay at that school. another survey found 25% of college-bound high school seniors said they ruled out universities solely based on that state's politics or policies. these young people are getting involved. >> yes, they are. >> in every way. >> in maine, "the boston globe" has a front page feature on aerosmith's final tour. the legendary rock band announced it'll hit the road for the last time this fall.

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he's announced his, you know -- that he is running again in 2024, and i think that we can all be very clear and say with a matter of fact, that if you vote for joe biden, you are really counting on a president heart harris. the idea he'd make it until 86 years old is not something that i think is likely. >> i just -- i don't know. nikki haley criticizing president biden's age. her latest attack also applies to donald trump. we'll also have the latest in the legal fight between ron desantis and disney. there's a major update. and u.s. surgeon general vivek murthy is our guest this hour. what he sees as the biggest mental health threat facing our

country. welcome back to "morning joe." it is tuesday, may 2nd. elise jordan and eugene robinson are still with us. and joining the conversation, we have msnbc contributor mike barnicle, who is looking good today. >> oh, thank you, mika. >> welcome. >> happy birthday. >> thank you. thank you very much. and the host of the podcast, "on brand with donny deutsch," donny deutsch. i enjoyed doing your podcast. >> we had fun. it'll be on in a couple weeks. it was much better than when joe did it. >> wow. >> really? wow. >> joe was a sleeper. happy birthday. >> sure, thank you. >> we joke with donny. his podcast is awesome. >> it is. >> when i went on his podcast, he was the most prepared person i've ever sat across from, telling stories and finding stuff i didn't know about me. >> i opened with a story, willie, in second grade, was the only male in all female production in, i don't know what it was. >> "annie." i was in the orphanage. >> these are little tidbits.

>> very good. >> it's a great podcast. >> joe enjoyed doing your podcast, too. >> no, he was great. >> okay. >> a lot of fun. >> "on brand." >> this week, we have professor irwin corey. it was an old joke, no. we enjoyed it. mike has done it. willie. elise, you'll come on? >> i would love to. i'm missing out. >> it's good. >> it's fun. "on brand with donny deutsch." >> thank you. let's start with the comments by nikki haley, doubling down on her criticism of president biden's age. last week, the former south carolina governor said biden is likely to die in office if he is re-elected. who does this? i'm sorry. it just seems really untoward, right? >> yeah. >> stop right there for a second. >> there are ways you can talk about age being a consideration and not just say, "oh, they're going to die soon." >> who does that? >> it's not -- it's unfortunate.

>> yeah. >> nikki haley, she's a southern lady. i just -- it doesn't suit her sensibility. >> we talk about age in "know your value" and 50 over 50. there's so many women and people, women and men, who are flourishing in their 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s. it is completely, you know, not -- you can't predict this. >> you know, the interesting thing is, we are doing now something that nobody else in america is doing. talking about nikki haley. i moan, she's irrelevant to the conversation. >> is that what it is? >> she's proven irrelevance each and every day. each and every time she opens her mouth, to your point. >> that may be true, and people don't put it the way she put it, obviously, but voters in polls tell us they're concerned about both candidates, not just joe biden. if your two candidates are 80 and 77, donald trump will be 77 in a month, they're worried about that. that's from the voters. both parties, by the way.

>> you see the biden campaign addressing that, and there's a lot of joint appearances with kamala harris. they're showing the entire team in many different ways, but i -- >> i think in polls, and they are saying that very, very clearly. the end of the day, when they go to the voting booth, they care about what is going on where their education and social security and their health care and whatnot. you know, say what you want about biden, his age, he is getting the job done. no matter how you look at the scoreboard, points are on the board. in the end, that's what voters look at. >> historic proportions, as well. >> yeah. in a new opinion piece, haley argues anyone over 75 should have to take a mental competency test, which would include her biggest competition, former president trump. she writes, i wish joe biden the best of health, but it's only sensible to consider the reality of an already slipping president serving through his mid-80s, if biden is re-elected.

kamala harris would have the highest likelihood of becoming president in the middle of a term of any vice president ever. the question before voters in 2024 is to an unprecedented degree, whether they want kamala harris to be president, not vice president. gene robinson, i mean, i find this to be so unbelievably difficult to hear someone speaking in those terms. at the same time, i guess the biden administration is addressing it in the way they're handling their campaign. >> yeah, look, willie is right, there's a lot of voters who would rather have younger candidates in both parties running for president, but reality is reality. president biden -- it'll likely be president biden against donald trump. they're both over 75. they're both pretty old. there you have it. you're going to make a choice.

nikki haley is doing this, i think, because, as mike barnicle said, nobody is talking about nikki haley. she's polling at about 1%. she's got some attention by these crude and weird remarks. it's not necessarily good attention, but she'll take any attention she can get right now, i think, because her campaign is going nowhere. >> what i don't understand, willie, is that it's -- you know, biden is old, therefore, vote for trump or a trump acolyte, nikki haley? that choice, i think a lot of voters who are concerned about trump or concerned about the direction of the country after january 6th or you name it, are not going to be, like, swayed by this argument. >> and they sort of cancel each other out. i understand why she is making it, but the argument against age in joe biden's case is also an argument against donald trump. it just is. he is only three years older, joe biden, than donald trump. there was something interesting, elise, in nikki haley's comments

that we're hearing more of. a vote for joe biden is actually a vote for kamala harris, looking ahead to the future, whether it's a second term or whether she runs after that. some prominent conservative talk radio hosts said, in the last couple days, look, joe biden is hard to hate. let's look at kamala harris, and maybe we can do that. they're starting to say it out loud now. >> exactly. look at how they've struggled, the hard core extremists, to have a message that's anti-joe biden and nasty enough to really resonate. so they know that kamala harris isn't as popular as joe biden, also, and she's unpopular among republican primary voters. this is an effective message for republican primary candidates to push. >> the strategy for kamala, if i'm running anybody's campaign, let her own abortion. >> let her be the voice out there. >> that is a swing issue. we saw how it defined the last election. obviously, she's a woman.

let her own that issue. that should be what she does focus on 100%. two things. obviously, it's a compelling issue, but it ingratiates her. she's had a little trouble connecting on a real gut level, and that's an issue she can have. >> she got to nashville quickly, and it was a strong moment, showing compassion, showing that she cared, being there. >> it is interesting, the candidate can meet the moment or the politician can meet the moment, but the moment can meet her, where she is now on two major issues in this country. that's a pretty strong voice. >> the campaign is already featuring her prominently. in the rollout video and since then. >> yup. >> peggy noonan has a piece in the "wall street journal," "biden versus trump in 2024? don't be so sure." peggy writes this. look at people's faces when you say, looks like it'll be biden and trump. those faces tell you everything, the soft wince, the shake of the head, the sigh. i agree with the problem not

only being joe biden's age but the implication it carries. if re-elected, there is a significant chance kamala harris will become president. on the republican side, the great not trump option, the consistent number two in the polls, has been deflating. it is too early to say ron desantis' candidacy won't work, but it feels like it won't work, but life is surprising. here's the real point of this column, peggy writes. if it starts to seem clear that america is locked into a trump-biden race, i think the electorate is going to get frisky. i don't see people just accepting it. i see pushback and little rebellions. gene robinson, your reaction there and what that pushback and rebellion might look like? the fact of the matter is, at this point, we have a lot of legal trouble out there for donald trump. but at this point, he is head and shoulders above the rest of the field, including ron desantis, and nobody is going to make a real run on the other side at joe biden. >> right. look, front-runners don't always get their party's nominations and don't always become

president, however, i don't think anybody is going to challenge president biden. donald trump is way ahead, and ron desantis is, frankly, fading right now. he's going in the wrong direction. again, things can change. i don't -- you know, we don't -- i don't yet see the catalyst that's going to make voters get frisky in either party and turn to somebody else. i just don't see that person in the democratic party or in the republican party right now. you know, i guess it's early, but, frankly, it's not that early. it's starting to get into mid season, and it's starting to look like biden and trump. >> you know what's kind of interesting, more than mildly interesting, i would submit, is what we're talking about now. you know, is it going to be trump versus biden? people do roll their eyes at that. there's no doubt about that. and people are legitimately concerned that joe biden is 80

years of age and would be 84 or 85 at the end of his next term if he were to be re-elected. but the ordinary, everyday american isn't even thinking about these two guys or this potential presidential matchup next year. they're thinking about what's going on right now. i think they're worried that this country is falling apart internally. we're suffering from abject. we don't know each other anymore as americans. >> our kids are lonely and suffering. >> iphone is the best friend, the thing in the palm of their hand, a phone. >> yeah. >> they're worried about, obviously, their mortgage or rent payments, the rising cost of food, but they're worried, is something happening? are the nuts and bolts of the country that they grew up in, that their parents talked about, that some of their parents fought for in world war ii or in vietnam, is it all coming apart? why are things so different? why are things so strange? why don't i know my next door neighbor?

who are these new people who arrive and work at these menial jobs that americans no longer take? the confusion that is in this country right now, i think, is overwhelming a lot of people. >> and people are -- am i going to be killed at school or church? >> mika, i'm telling you, we talked about this a couple of weeks ago. you follow a school bus in the morning, you're stuck in traffic. you watch the parents as they put their third or fourth graders onto a school bus, and they look at them. they're right there at the doors as they put the child onto the school bus. everything that's happened in america is on their minds, you know? is someone going to show up at their school? >> right. >> all the school doors in america today are locked. didpen 10 years ago, 15 years ago. >> no. >> a generation of kids will live with the trauma of surviving a school shooting. and it's heartbreaking. >> we have the u.s. surgeon general coming on to talk about

the loneliness epidemic in our country, but this is another layer of it, in terms of the mental health of our kids. we're going to talk about some real concerns that parents, really all americans should have about the sort of state of mind among our young people. by the way, these are -- if you look at the generations in front of us, the young people in front of us who are growing up in the middle of school shootings, i mean, some of them are running for office because they've experienced this. but, my god, many young people are experiencing a mental health crisis, of loneliness and also fear. >> you see, there was a poll last week. i forget who took the poll. the stunning percentage of young women, college-aged women, college-aged men who have considered suicide. i'll give you the numbers. it is incomprehensible. >> one in three young women have

seriously considered suicide, and 23% have actually made a plan. i want to say that again. one in four young women in this country have gotten far enough thinking about suicide where they've actually made a plan. i know the surgeon general is coming on to talk about loneliness, but this is your villain right here. >> it is. >> this thing is. i watch. you have young women. you have young daughters, a young daughter. >> yeah. >> this is the devil. this is the devil. >> brutal. >> they sit there and watch what they're not a part of. they sit there and watch everybody else's curated, ideal, b.s. life. >> as a parent, you can't see. you know something is going on on the phone, but you can't see what it is. i'm not talking about 10-year-olds who shouldn't have phones. there's a whole generation of phones now that are going to come out that don't have all the apps and are flip phones or whatever. they're finally getting it. you know, they realize a 10-year-old shouldn't have a phone with 50 apps on it. but, you know what? the toothpaste is out of the tube. you have these -- >> a.i. on top of that now. >> forget it.

>> let your mind frighteningly go where that can take, in terms of setting up standards that no human being can live up to. >> we have to -- i really hope this is something politicians can agree on at some point. by the way, the woman accusing donald trump of rape returned to the stand in her civil trial against the former president. trump's attorney continued questioning e. jean carroll yesterday, attempting to cast doubt on her claims. nbc news senior legal correspondent laura jarrett has more. >> reporter: back on the stand, e. jean carroll facing a second day of intense cross-examination. joe tacopina, attorney for the former president, doubling down on the defense theory that carroll made up her sexual assault accusation against mr. trump to gain notoriety. playing this old interview on cnn for the jury, where she describes bumping into mr. trump at bergdorf of goodman. >> he was coming for lingerie. i am like, oh, i can dine out

forever on this story. >> reporter: carroll told the jury, it was such a new york story and a happy story. then, of course, it turned tragic. she says the former president raped her in the an allegation the defense tried to undermine, saying she never called the police, despite telling others in her advice column to do so. carroll explaining in court, i'm a member of the silent generation. women like me were taught and trained to keep our chins up and to not complain. tacopina also confronting carroll with old posts on facebook years afterassaulted, calls herself a massive fan of "the apprentice." carroll said she made several jokes about him also. mr. trump visited scotland. it appears unlikely he'll show up at trial. >> interesting. former president trump, as we know, under indictment in new york and is facing a lot of other different legal issues. i'm just curious, any thoughts around the table?

cnn is holding a town hall with donald trump. i guess that's giving him a full hour. i just -- i don't know. thoughts? >> i think kaitlin collins is hosting it, excellent journalist. she will push back hard on him. we know that. we know what he is going to say. it is not 2016 anymore. he helped lead an attempted coup against the united states. >> some would say he is an insurrectionist. >> most would say, if you have a brain and you watched everything. look, what else do you need the know about republican voters that not only did they see four years of him, saw an insurrection, saw two impeachments, not only did they see him indictments, nor to come, not only are they seeing a rape trial, one of 29 women, and what do they do after this? two thumbs up. give us some more. give us some more. >> i think it is a great opportunity for trump. it is a win for him. if he can just slightly behave himself, not attack the female

moderator, which is going to be very hard for him to do as we know, since he always does that. if he just keeps his calm and is more controlled, then he successfully has gone and done an interview outside of the conservative media space. it is showing that he is not scared in the way that ron desantis refuses to do interviews anywhere. >> you know, the idea of trump in a town hall on cnn, i get it in terms of the theatrics. i don't know what the format is. i don't know whether there will be audience questions. >> i think so. >> town hall, yeah. >> i don't know whether those questions will be screened. probably will be screened. but you would love to see, and not just on trump, not just trump up there. you'd like to see someone stand up, an ordinary american citizen from concord, new hampshire, or any place elsewhere the town halls are held, and say, "look, i have a special needs daughter. she's 13 years of age. she's in a classroom, mainstream

classroom. and the children in her classroom batter her on social media, behind her back, and she cries to sleep every night. and i have to do everything in my power to get her to go to school the next day. what can you do to help my daughter, mr. president hopeful?" >> the problem with that man answering is there is no empathy in there, so -- >> well, we find out. >> -- that'd be a question that wouldn't have an answer. >> we'd find out. >> we know. that's the problem i have with this. we know. talking about someone who led an insurrection. i know a lot of people with 24-hour security because of him. >> yes. >> because of his -- >> remember the widow who he attacked on twitter days after her husband had died in africa? >> yeah. >> her husband, an army infantry man, i believe. >> just not comfortable with it. >> there is no empathy component. >> new hampshire. >> when is it? >> next thursday.

>> thursday night. >> what's interesting, and i mentioned this off camera, he has been very quiet. you would think with what is going on, usually when he is getting punched, he punches back. he has not. we have not seen him in a very, very, very long time in any kind of -- the last time we saw him with a confrontational question was the last presidential debate. >> he's not on twitter. >> he is posting a lot into his social media site. >> you don't see his face, don't see him talking. i think -- i predict we're going to see -- we talked about age before. i don't want to say a much older donald trump, but a much more beat up donald trump. i think his fastball continues to go down. i actually think this is going to benefit the democrats, him going on there. i think a lot of the emperor's clothes might come off. i hope the folks at cnn have this set up properly. >> trump has really benefitted from ron desantis flailing. ron desantis looks so

intolerant, and he almost makes trump look like a moderating force in comparison, which is crazy. and so you have ron desantis trying to out-meme trump, and he's just -- you know, it is a new coat. it's not going to work, but trump gets to benefit. >> all right. still ahead on "morning joe," the writers guild of america is calling a strike after last-minute negotiations broke down. how this could impact many popular television shows and movies. plus, there's a bipartisan push on capitol hill to protect kids online. democratic senator richard blumenthal joins us ahead to weigh in on that. but first, u.s. surgeon general, dr. vivek murthy, is our guest. he is putting a spotlight on the widespread problem of loneliness and how it is impacting americans across the country. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. unlisted. try boost® high protein with 20 grams of protein for muscle health versus 16 grams in ensure® high protein. boost® high protein.

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will end the covid mandate for international travelers and workers may 11th. anyone entering the u.s. from abroad no longer will need to prove they are fully vaccinated. on the same day, the white house says it'll end the public health emergency tied to the pandemic, which will stop enforcement of title 42. that's the border measure that gives the federal government broader power to turn away and to expel migrants for public health reasons. as the white house prepares to end the public health emergency brought on by the coronavirus, our next guest says a new health challenge is taking center stage. debilitating levels of loneliness in america. joining us now to explain, u.s. surgeon general, dr. vivek murthy. dr. murthy, great to see you. >> great to have you. >> this is really important. >> important, yeah. >> you have this report out. something i'm not sure a lot of people appreciate how profound the problem is and the impacts of it. physical, it can be like obesity, like a lack of exercise, like smoking in what it does to your body. lay out, if you would, how deep

this problem is in america. >> well, willie, i'm so glad we're here talking about this because loneliness is a problem that has existed behind the shadows for too long. i came to realize this when i first began my tenure as surgeon general and i traveled the country. i'd talk to people who would tell me they were lonely, but they wouldn't use that word. they'd say, "i feel i have to carry these burdens in my life myself. if i disappear tomorrow, nobody would care, or i feel invisible." >> don't feel anything. >> turns out that millions of people struggle with loneliness. when you dig into the data, you find one in two adults in america, reporting levels of loneliness, and the numbers are greater among kids. what you also find is that loneliness has serious effects on our mental health and our physical health. raising our risk for depression, anxiety and suicide, but also increasing our risk of heart disease, stroke, dementia and premature death. >> what is at the root of this, doctor? we talk a lot about the phone. we talked about the way

technology has changed our lives, made us more insular, though we are connected in digital ways. as you study the problem, what's behind it? >> well, that's the right question. it turns out that this is a problem that has been building for decades. we have over 40, 50 years seen declining participation in the community organizations that used to bring people together, including service organizations, faith organizations and others. we're also seeing that our life has changed dramatically. we move around more. we change jobs more often. technology is utterly transformed how we interact with one another. now, that can be good or bad. it can help or hurt. it is how it is designed and how we use it. what i worry is it's replaced our in-person connections with lower quality, you know, online connections, and it is also prioritized quantity of connections over quality of connections. as our life has changed dramatically in these ways, we have to very intentionally prioritize relationships,

rebuild the social infrastructure in our lives and our communities. if we don't, we will see a worsening crisis of loneliness. that's why i'm issuing this advisory today on loneliness and isolation. i want to begin a conversation as a country about what i see as a profound public health threat, but a threat we can address. i also lay out a framework for a national strategy for what we can do about it. >> right. let's jump to pillar four, reform the digital environment. because that's what you were just talking about, like to hear the other solutions, as well. but technology has transformed the way we live and work now. these connections are happening on zoom, online. i guess, in many ways, there's positive aspects to this. you can get to people that you couldn't otherwise get to. help can get to people that, you know, even health care. at the same time, our children are growing up in an environment of oversharing and overexposure.

i don't know how you put the toothpaste back in the tube without real legislation that holds some of the tech companies accountable. what do you think? >> i think you're right, we need a combination of changes in practice and changes in policy to ensure that technology helps us and doesn't hurt us. now, a lot of the benefits you mentioned, mika, are true. i've experienced them, as well. when i was growing up, it took a month to write a letter to relatives in india and get a letter now. now, i can video conference at the stroke of a button. it's easy, but what we have not done is designed technology in ways that protects the quality of our relationships and protects our kids, in particular, from harm. now, when i travel the country, i talk to many children who say the experience of social media for them makes them feel worse about themselves and worse about their relationships with their friends, as they constantly are comparing their lives to other kids' lives. we've been comparing ourselves to people for millenia, but not at the pace, speed and volume

that's happening on social media. tech has to be designed to promote and support our relationships. i worry that's not how it's been designed right now. it is to maximize the amount of time we spend on it opposed to the quality of time. it's hurting us. >> what do we do about one of the, i would submit, problems in the roots of loneliness, the pace of change? so it wasn't that long ago, 15 years is the snap of a finger in terms of history, where a lot of people on a specific street anywhere in usa worked in manufacturing jobs, in factories, textile, lumber, whatever. those jobs, poof, gone. replaced by technology, by newer and improved ways to do what they did 15 or 20 years ago. so they feel lonely because they've been uprooted economically. they've lost their job. some of them lose their homes. some of them lose their children

in a couple of wars that are still going on. but there's another class of americans whose jobs weren't touched, whose lives have been improved by the technology, whose kids go to college, good colleges and never go to the service, never risk their lives for their country. the roots of these things are so deep that they cause loneliness, i would submit. what do we do about that? >> that is a good question. you're right that the pace of change has been profound. and change will happen, you know, in the future. we can't stop change from happening, but what we can do is make sure that people have what i think of as the most important safety net to buffer them during times of stress. that is relationships with one another and community. when we have people around us, we can actually deal with a fair amount of adversity in our lives. but when we don't, when we're struggling by ourselves, and even what seemed like manageable levels of adversity become overwhelming, right? the places that used to bring people together, you know,

whether it was churches and synagogues, temples and mosques, or whether it was volunteer organizations in your community or whether it was parent associations in your kids' schools, participation in a lot of those organizations has gone down. when we think about rebuilding social connection in america, to me, this is not just a health issue, this is vital to all of society. because in addition to the health impacts i talked about earlier, we know when people struggle with loneliness, it impacts their productivity in the workplace. it impacts how children perform in school. it reduces civic engagement, and it contributes to division and polarization. when you don't know one another, it's easier to distrust and to hate one another, but it is harder to hate people up close. that's why this is such a critical issue. what i call for is rebuilding social infrastructure in our communities, the organizations that bring us together, the programs and schools and workplaces that cultivate connection, also re-evaluating and reassessing our relationship with technology. that's about personal practices, creating sacred spaces in our

life without tech. also by putting policies in place that ensure tech is safer for us and our kids. finally, their personal practices. look, in all our lives, we can do simple things, like taking 15 minutes a day to reach out and connect with someone we care about. to make sure we are giving people our full attention when we're talking to them in conversation and aren't distracted by our phones. we can look for opportunities to serve others, as well. it turns out, helping others, service is one of the most powerful anecdotes to loneliness. >> the end of the day, as you say, the solutions are on us. it's on people, on individuals, on families, on groups of friends to do something, and these relationships do take work, as we are reminded. i feel i'm in touch with my buddies from college because we're on a text chain. then i go, oh, i haven't seen them in three years. you have to work at it. >> yeah. >> from your point of view, is there something, are there policies? i mean, you touched on a couple of them. is there something that can come from you all in the federal government to create space for these things we all need to work

on to happen? >> absolutely. one of the reasons i mentioned this is i want us to have a national conversation so we can bring it out from the shadows. willie, i'll tell you this, people feel ashamed about their struggles with loneliness. you know how i know that? i did. i didn't tell people about it for years. to say you're lonely is almost like saying you're not likable or not lovable, and who wants to feel that way? i want people to know this is a common feeling. i want people to have conversations with their loved ones and communities about this. that's how we put it on the radar and make it a priority. from government, yes, there are things we can do. we can invest in policies that build the infrastructure in communities that makes communities more walkable, that allow people to come together. we can support community organizations that bring people together. we can invest in research that we need to understand which populations are most affected and what solutions really work well. people also have a profound role here to play, as well. as big as the problem seems,

i'll tell you this. we are hard wired to connect with one another, so even a few seconds or a few moments of genuine connection with somebody listening to you deeply, where somebody asks how you're doing and pauses to listen, when you hear the voice of a friend when you pick up the phone that say hello, even if it's 10 seconds to say, "hey, i can't talk now, can i call you back," those moments of connection matter. they can leave us feeling good for a long time. it's our body telling us that we need more connection in our life. that's how i want people to think about this. loneliness is not a source of shame. it's like hunger or thirst. a signal that our body sends us when we need something for our survival. that's social connection. >> u.s. surgeon general vivek murthy, thank you. thank you for sharing your personal side to this story, as well. we really appreciate it. of course, a lot of the solutions in this will be talked about for years to come, hopefully addressed. one of the solutions we can talk about with our next guest.

that's the social media aspect and how it plays in this problem, especially for children. one recent survey found nearly half of respondents between the ages of 12 and 21 said they have become withdrawn or have self-harmed because they are bullied online about their physical appearance. four in ten said they are in mental health distress, with about one in five experiencing body image issues. now, congress and state legislatures are working on a number of pieces of legislation aimed at increasing protections for children on social media. joining us now, democratic senator richard blumenthal of connecticut who is introducing the bipartisan kids online safety act. bipartisan, that's good. senator, very good to see now. hope you're well. good to you back on the air here. i'm curious, if this legislation will really have an impact with

so many kids at such a young age, completely taken over by their phones and by social media. >> i think it is one of the more promising developments in recent years. it is completely bipartisan. we are introducing it today with nearly 30 co-sponsors, evenly divided republican and democrat. and the reason for this kind of momentum is the realization that the loneliness, depression, despondentness, suicidal thoughts and eating disorders are, not by accident driven at children. it is by design. the tech companies are preying on that loneliness because it is part of their business model. more eyeballs means more advertising and more money. we want to hold the big tech companies accountable and impose a duty of responsibility and care to mitigate those harms, about eating disorders and

suicidal thoughts. also, give young people the tools they need to disconnect from those addictive features. in fact, make disabling the addictive features the default, not the practice. >> i completely agree with this, but i don't know how it works. how do you put the toothpaste back in the tube? you know, kids find a way to these social media -- you know, they do it at younger age. they get around all the rules that are there. it's such a part of the fabric of everyday life for young people. so how does this work? how do you hold these companies accountable on exactly what you're talking about? >> if a company knows or has reason to know that it is driving toxic content at children through the black box algorithms, if it, in fact, does it, then it can be held

responsible legally. i've met grieving parents who have lost kids, who are clamoring for this kind of tool or responsibility on the part of big tech. i've met kids. just last week in hartford, sixth graders who want the options to disconnect from the kind of content relating to bullying or eating disorders. we would give them mandatorily, under the law, those options to disconnect from the addictive features. so i think that young people want control back over their online lives. parents want tools to help their kids. we don't want to shut them out. we want to empower them and give them back control. i think it is doable. of course, the big tech companies will oppose it with armies of lawyers and lobbyists. there's no question, we will

have a fight. but those parents who have come to washington to lobby in favor, and the kids we will bring here to talk to our colleagues, i think can carry the day. >> senator, good morning. for all the reasons you just laid out, there has been in recent weeks talk of a national ban on tiktok, which has 150 million users in the united states alone. incredibly popular among young people, as well, not just for that side of it but the role the chinese government plays in the company. do you believe there might still be a ban on tiktok? >> there may still be a ban on tiktok, in part because of this surveillance, dangers of the chi chinese potentially collecting large amounts of information. there is the danger, by the way, in many of the social media accounts, as well, because they can collect information through age verification programs. but i think the more fundamental and profound question about tiktok, about facebook, about

google, that we really revealed in this series of hearings that we held, we've been working on this measure for three whole years. we have really done a lot of diligent work to try to pinpoint and target the specific harms relating to aggravating those feelings of dispondency of tiktok. that's what we seek to address. >> senator blumenthal, thank you very much for being on the show this morning. we appreciate it. >> thank you. coing up, writers for the entertainment industry will be on the picket lines today after their union and major studios failed to reach a new deal last night. we'll look at the issues that have sparked the first strike in 15 years. also ahead, an update on jpmorgan's takeover of first republic bank. it's the third major bank

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do your homework even faster. come again. -sorry, what was that? introducing the next generation 10g network only from xfinity. the future starts now. little rainy in new york city. 47 past the hour. welcome back. the board appointed by ron desantis to oversee the land occupied by walt disney world is now filing a countersuit against the company. disney first sued the board last week in federal court, claiming the florida governor is punishing the company for taking a stand against his so-called don't say gay law. which restricts how teachers talk about gender and sexuality issues. now, the board is fighting back with its own legal action. this time, in state court. the board says disney's recent moves were done in haste and, quote, wreak of a backroom deal.

it claims it wants to, quote, restore the people's sovereignty. during an event today, desantis explained the case should be decided in state court because it is based on contract law. adding, quote, at the end of the day, it's a question about good governance. gene robinson, your thoughts? >> unbelievable. unbelievable. this is captain ahab and the while whale at this point. this is ridiculous. you know, the arrangement that florida has with disney is the same kind of arrangement it has with, for example, the villages, that big retirement community. >> yup. >> where desantis goes trawling for votes all the time. take the status away from them. take it away from daytona speedway. it's completely inconsistent, the argument he's making. it all started because he has, you know, skin as thin as a

grape's skin, you know? it is amazingly thin skin. disney had the temerity to criticize the don't say gay law. rather than just sort of brush it off, as any reasonable person would do, he went all in. >> doubling down. >> he keeps digging. >> the average american doesn't even know at this point what the argument is about. all they know is it's mickey versus ron. >> exactly. >> that's all they know. >> he should want that to go away politically. >> if i'm trump, i do a commercial, mickey's voice going, "ron, what are you doing, man?" did you see the side by side? what else do come on, ron. there's happy mickey. there's dour ron desantis there. so much fun to have with this from an advertising point of view. >> politics. state abortion bans are increasingly forcing many students to rethink the college plans. we'll explain that next on "morning joe."

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welcome back. class size, academics, extracurricular. all the things that are factors young adults consider when they go to college. a new poll shows a state abortion bans may be affecting the decisions. the findings where the latest consequence of the supreme court's dobbs ruling last june that ended the federal right to abortion spurring some states to restrict reproductive rights even more. here to explain is "force" women editor maggie mcgrath. this research, there's a split among party lines? >> there is a split among party

lines but it's important to look at the fact that broad majorities of people say that reproductive health choice matters. to enroll in a school or stay enrolled. 72% said that the state reproductive laws are an important consideration in the decision to stay at the school. among potential students 60% said it is an important consideration. >> we were talking about this across the board where young people are tuned in. not just to politics but when's going on with laws pertaining to themselves. >> this study is fascinating. even higher number of women who are already in universities are thinking about switching. it shows the tremendous

repercussions of dobbs and affects business and culture beyond the obvious into the society. this is going to continue to be a downfall of the republican party. >> finding even students are making changes? leaving? why? leaving colleges? switching colleges? >> they might. yesterday was college decision day. i think we will see the returns on the states, especially schools in red states with more restrictive laws. i called vanderbilt. tennessee has a near total ban. they announced a task force in the aftermath of dobbs because they wanted to study what should we do for the students and the faculty. there's a hardship fund. companies announced travel

policies to cover traveling out of state. so vanderbilt has a hardship fund for employees and students and i think the message is consider what you are doing. >> enrollment dropped in the past few years. what does this mean for higher ed institutions? >> gallup and the foundation are warning that schools in states with restrictive laws on the books could be in risk for depressed enrollment. >> there's an effort where universities are pressured to do away with tenure. the quality of education that they can deliver. >> young people, it is really changing with research of 18 to 34-year-olds. looking at college with debt and so many ways to get into the

world right now without college. >> yes. >> because of this. >> i think we should address that this is a survey of the most privileged in america going to college in the first place and so many women in states where they can't leave, don't have the freedom to leave or in-state tuition and in a state that's restricting women's health care, you know? it is not a good outcome. >> following this. i want to talk know your value and "force:" the deadline for the list is approaching. you have advice on nominations. get them in. say you didn't make the list, what is the advice for getting on the list? >> apply again. please. the deadline is june 1. looking for women in north america born in 1972 or earlier. if the birth date is 1973 you

are too young. >> don't lie up. it happened. >> it did. we talked about the women that made the list last year. i look at bobby brown. >> exactly. >> she was still under a 25-year noncompete and then editing the first list in 2021 she had been in business for a full year yet. we checked back in last year and revenue is up. >> growing. >> exactly. sometimes an extra year in business can make the difference. >> long runway. i say that on my birthday. thank you very much. to submit the nomination and read more about the 50 over 50 guidelines and head to forbes.com or know your value.com and nominate someone for the 50 over 50 list or

nominate yourself still ahead, the latest from texas where hundreds of police officers are searching for the suspect accused of fatally shooting five of his neighbors. what we are learning about the calls to 911. house speaker kevin mccarthy's comments about aid to ukraine. "morning joe" is coming back in 90 seconds. - if i would've used kayak to book our car, we could have saved on our trip instead of during our trip. ughh - kayak. search one and done.

the president and i had a

very close working relationship for four years. didn't end well. we thought about peace in the middle east. but obviously it didn't end well. we had a close working relationship. it did not end well. the administration didn't end well. i didn't end well. our administration did not end well. obviously, the administration did not end well. the administration didn't end well. didn't end well. didn't end well. i think i'm very clear in saying that the administration did not end well. >> we want pence! >> that's not the fairytale ending you dream for. >> i tend to agree. they're expected to go dark during hollywood writers' strike that started at midnight on the west coast. meanwhile on capitol hill this

morning, there is more pressure on lawmakers and the white house to reach a deal on the debt ceiling following a new warning from the treasury department. we'll also have the latest on the first republic bank collapse, the third institution to go bust since march. also ahead, an update on the civil rape trial against donald trump as the accuser takes the stand for the third day. learning more about the staggering toll from eastern europe with new reports that russia may have suffered as many as 100,000 casualties since december. and republican candidate in the 2024 presidential race is doubling down on attacks about president biden's age. we will have the comments for you and more about that. is that all they have? good morning. welcome to "morning joe." >> what does that mean? >> i don't know.

>> mika's birthday. >> yes! [ applause ] >> i'm still here. i can't believe it. i walked into 30 rock. i was wrong about everything. everything. including this. 56. i started this show at 40. >> yeah. >> i'm 56. 50 of 50. >> still here. >> your birthday tomorrow. >> we are still here. why? joe is on assignment. celebrating your birthday tomorrow. >> every year it is like that. >> no cupcakes? >> warm yogurt over here. >> any presents or anything? >> we have a big -- in the 9:00 hour. still in the planning stages. >> the show is a gift enough. four hours. you know it is, actually. this is a blessing and so blessed not to like get -- this is -- we are so blessed.

this is a true honor. >> it is. >> with willie and me, we have white house bureau chief at politico jonathan lemire. i won't make fun of you. >> your gift to me? >> i can't help it. >> you get a free pass. >> free pass. exactly. he is always here every day. former aide elise jordan is here and associate editor of "the washington post" eugene robinson joins us. >> happy birthday. >> thank you! i want to jump ahead to the "b" block. did you see kevin mccarthy on ukraine? >> yes. russian reporter challenged him on the u.s. challenge. >> slow clap. >> went back hard. >> it was really actually best moment as speaker of the house and nothing bad to say about that. we'll get to it. have a bigger conversation about

the state of the war in ukraine but planting a flag on what needed to be said from that side. >> a strongest comments yet on ukraine in particular. playing that in a moment but we begin with the latest in the deadly mass shooting in texas. the suspect still on the run as 250 officers continue the search for the man accused of fatallies shooting five neighbor including a 9-year-old child. one sighting yesterday prompted a lockdown of several schools. over the weekend they said searchers recovered the gunman's rifle, clothing and cell phone. there ice a $80,000 reward for his arrest. joining is correspondent sam brock. good morning. what's the state of the sedge?

>> reporter: good morning. there is a thick fog surrounding cleveland, texas, to the point you can only see 5 to 10 feet in front of you. those are the conditions. it is improbable to put it mildly that someone would have been asked to not fire the rifle on the lawn and then murder five people next door and then allude thome on saturday. as you mentioned, his cell phone tracked. the clothes, a scent there. investigators found both but not the suspect. i'm in cleveland. you see the sign that says wanted in spanish. the mailboxes. residential area. highly wooded. mud roads. hard to see where you are going. these are the topographical

challenges that investigators are still going forward in. we are rubbing up against 96 hours. people are frightened. they have no idea where this guy is. could be in texas. could have left the country. there's no update yesterday but the multiple false alarms. one at a local landfill and one near schools with sightings. incredible amount of resources to investigate. it was nothing. we learned details from the father of the 9-year-old boy daniel murdered. he said that they contacted police five times over 30 minutes and took that amount of time for police to come. i believe he said 20. the brother-in-law said 30. inside of the closet. his brother. brother-in-law calling police

with the wife and child telling them an immediate need to get there. dispatchers said there's folks on the ground. that was not the case. we reached out to find out how long it took them to get there. they said they have ten days to respond. right now there's an immediate need to find where this individual is. and as far as more of that background information comes into play and the fact there's a preexisting relationship between wilson's wife and the wife of the suspect. they were friends and the suspect came over to the house and helped him cut down a tree. how do we get from that to friday at 11:30 with a mass murder? but wilson garcia saying his son saw his mother fall to the ground and when the 9-year-old boy was shot. this urgent search continues in

day four and right now no idea or word from investigators where they stand in tracking down a murderer. >> in terms of response time we did hear that they only have three sheriffs and deputies that cover about 700 square miles. what more do we know about the suspect, the man that police still now are looking for but authorities say an undocumented immigrant from mexico, deported at least four times, questions about getting the guns and then you touched on it a bit but the relationship with the neighbors is unconscionable. what could be the motive be? >> reporter: yeah. a lot of good questions there. in terms of the relationship a neighbor of the family said we sent the kids to school together. to parties did. he said i never heard him raise

his voice and to commit this violence is outside the realm of possibility, no someone that lived next door to the suspect. you are right that i.c.e. confirmed four examples of him being removed from the country. also a dwi on the record dating back to 2009 but small compared to the landscape of this but four deportations. politicians jumped right in. the governor discussing the illegal status of the suspect and the family that was slaughtered. jon cornyn saying the actions of a criminal should not reflect the immigrants but devastating impacts of not applying the laws

at the border. and then with respect to the background also calls to his house over a period of time. of him discharging the rifle on the lawn of the house. there's not a criminal history but the mystery of one man to snap and commit this unconscionable act. >> search continues across texas this morning. thank you so much. >> there is a new piece in "the washington post" entitled "a gun transforms another common place interaction into carnage." we have the governor's callous description of the immigrants calling them ill lyle, the victims. >> yeah. >> that there is this growing sense of unease about not just the schools, not just the churches, not just the dance halls, not just the country

music festivals but interactions, going to the wrong house, going into the wrong driveway. now a new level reached. tell us about it. >> it was a noise complaint. right? making too much noise next door. firing the gun. unsafely. didn't like that either. there were relatives staying over at the house. a baby in the house. trying to get the baby to sleep. a noise complaint. how many times have you had complaints with a neighbor making too much noise or a neighbor had trouble -- problems with you making too much noise. running a leaf blower. these things get settled normally. it's a common, every day interaction in every community in the world. but in other countries people

don't all have guns and ak-15s and then these things, the normal disputes don't end up with a tragedy. this was committed with an ar-style rifle which is an assault weapon, a weapon of war. why is it in anyone's hands let alone this man, any civilian? why? why do we do this? >> yeah. >> take any poll. there's a new poll from fox news out last week that says 61% of americans want a ban on assault weapons. and that's in addition to the 80, 85, 90% who want other gun control measures like background checks, red flag laws. yet these things don't happen. it is just horrific. >> calling out some hypocrisy

here. i know we talked about the governor yesterday but every time one of these happens there will be republicans who say this is not the time to politicize guns. how dare you politicize guns at a time like this when people are in mourning and yet jump to the politics of immigration and using words like that and in this case an ar-15 is used. the common denominator is the guns and yet there is just no movement. barely any. >> and it is just a human tragedy over and over and over. and i can just so relate to wanting a fussy baby to go to sleep and someone shooting an ar-15 next door. i would be livid. i would go over there yelling.

i would have been yelling. stop shooting your damn gun so my baby can go to sleep and not expect this just psychotic response because the guy had an ar-15. the country's against it. eugene quoted the polling. this is an area where republican lawmakers are extremists compared to where the voters are. even republican voters. >> this tragedy adds to the list of people getting shot and killed for every day occurrences. someone who pulls into the wrong driveway, touches the wrong door of a car and the response is to be shot to death. here a noise complaint. keep it down. my baby is trying to sleep. walks in there and lays waste to a family including a child who's trying to help his mother and is shot. it is because of the access to guns. the access to guns.

there is to the points that they made there's no momentum in congress right now. we heard the same statements we always do fwr the white house. they said they have exhausted the list of executive orders. we saw modest legislation passed last year. >> that legislation came in the wake of the uvalde shooting almost a year ago. you get is sense that republicans say we gay you that. first time in 15 years hollywood writers are going on strike this morning. the union says members quote voted unanimously to go on strike in a dispute over pay and staffing after the contract expeiffered at midnight pacific time. they plan to walk the picket lines this afternoon. that means production will come to a halt.

late night talk shows expected to be among the first to go dark this week. bargaining on behalf of hollywood companies released a statement saying there's generous increases in compensation for writers. joining us is frank holland. good morning. what specifically is at issue here? there is a new world of streaming, artificial intelligence and the question of pay. what is the debate? >> hitting the picket lines after they failed to reach the contract. the writers argue they suffer financially. the last strike about 15 years ago. a different landscape. there was no really streaming platforms and while we saw a

disruption it had an impact to california's economy. cost the california economy $2 billion so there's financial ramifications and in addition for the different entertainment companies. >> president biden is promising continued action to keep america's banking system safe and sound, the comments after first republic became the third major bank to collapse in less than two months. sold to jpmorgan chase. the president held a small business event at the white house yesterday saying the move protects small businesses and depositors. >> while depositors are protected, shareholders are losing the investments. taxpayers are not on the hook. i've called on congress to give regulators the tools to hold

bank executives accountable. and, folks, we have to make sure that we are not back in this position again. i think we're well on the way to make that assurance. >> frank, the president sounding confident there but this is the second larmgest bank failure, largest since 2008 financial crisis. how confident is wall street and others about this being the end of the line? >> wall street is really continuing to digest the acquisition by jpmorgan chase. first it is widely seen as a win for jpmorgan. one kind of interesting wrinkle is $30 billion are from a march cash infusion by jpmorgan and ten banks to try to keep the bank solvent.

it is a one-time gain of $2.6 billion and $500 million in new profit annually. but bigger for the united states, our economy. this raises new questions about regional banking and if we have too big to fail and too small to succeed. also tightening credit conditions. how does it change how we get a mortgage, a car loan, starting a small business? a lot of ramifications as this unfolds. >> while we quickly turn to the fight over the treasury department, janet yellen saying the country could face default june 1st. the reduced timeline increases the urgency for the white house and the congress to get on the same page. there's eight legislative days

in which the senate and the house in session at the same time. president biden briefly announced yellen's announcement yesterday. >> folks, we have got a lot to do. most immediate thick thing is to assure the economy and the financial system. most important thing to do in that regard is to make sure that the threat by the speaker of the house and the default on the national debt is off the table. over 200 years america's never failed to pay the debt. we pay our bills and we should do so without reckless hostage taking by the megaa republicans in congress. >> frank, if we do default? >> looking at the wall street future this is morning weighing the possible default and the fed raising rates so we don't want to understate this. janet yellen's letter to hit the limit as early as june 1st is so

much earlier than expected. we saw the estimates of mid-july giving lawmakers breathing room. as you mentioned time is not on the side coming to the congressional negotiations. the house is off this week and limited working days on the calendar. democrats are insisting own a clean debt limit as the president alluded to. an increase with no conditions and republicans calling for cuts and passing a bill with $4.8 trillion in deficit savings so the credit of the united states a political football. the president calling lawmakers to the white house to try to hammer out the deal but this morning, we heard an expert from d.c. saying there would be a

short term extension for breathing room similar to back in 2021. >> thank you so much. coming up, a next guest in the courtroom for the civil rape case against donald trump. straight ahead on "morning joe." the less they'll miss. but even if your teen was vaccinated against meningitis in the past they may be missing vaccination for meningitis b. although uncommon, up to 1 in 5 survivors of meningitis will have long term consequences. now as you're thinking about all the vaccines your teen might need make sure you ask your doctor if your teen is missing meningitis b vaccination. for copd, ask your doctor about breztri. breztri gives you better breathing, symptom improvement, and helps prevent flare-ups. breztri won't replace a rescue inhaler for sudden breathing problems. it is not for asthma. tell your doctor if you have a heart condition or high blood pressure before taking it.

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before we get to the next guest we have a little bit of breaks news. jonathan? >> speaker kevin mccarthy has said he will accept the invitation to the white house next week. they will be there to start having the discussions about raising the debt ceiling and the budget and on the wake of secretary yellen's announcement that we could default as soon as june 1. >> joining us now the president of foreign relations. kevin mccarthy has been in israel where yesterday he became the second speaker ever to

address parliament of israel saying the goal to reaffirm if bipartisan support that israel has in the u.s. congress and then speaking to the media after the address. asked for a russian reporter about future u.s. aid to ukraine he offered the strongest words yet. >> we know that you don't support the current unlimited and uncontrolled supply of weaponry and aid to ukraine. so can you comment, is it possible if in the near future the u.s. policy regarding sending weaponry to ukraine will change? >> yeah. i'm not sure -- the sound is not good. did he say i don't support aid to ukraine? no. i support aid for ukraine. i do not support what your country has done to ukraine and your killing of the children.

i think from one standpoint you should pull out and i don't think it's right and will continue to support because the rest of the world sees it just as it is. >> wow. as a frequent critic of kevin mccarthy, i just want to say that was amazing. also much needed in terms of some republicans parsing the words about aid to ukraine and saying it mildly. that was resounding and in an incredible situation. >> a great message to russia for them to hear because counting the republicans aren't going to support aid. they are wrong. the administration is confident it has the votes when it comes up again probably the summer or fall and good to say it in israel. israel is hedging the bets so the fact that kevin mccarthy was that clear and black and white on this issue is actually good. doesn't get rid of the question

wls we have the ammunition and equipment to sustain them. doesn't solve problems of manpower for ukraine. >> i liked that that was the message on foreign soil. when he is on foreign soil united with the u.s. president and it is just harkening back to the moment where there was so much more bipartisanship in foreign policy and nice to see that. >> it points out the fact that while kevin mccarthy is not as strong as there that most republicans, mitch mcconnell especially, the leadership of the republican party supportered ukraine. loud voices we talk about all the time that have been talking about maybe pulling back entirely are not a blank check but this really is broadly the position of the party. >> yeah. no doubt. the strong oes in terms of supporting ukraine.

he's never said we shouldn't support ukraine but that debate could be coming this fall or summer especially if the counter offensive doesn't go as well as ukraine hopes it does does that impact the calculation of fundings to come and the strong support of ukraine comes after a prominent voice on fox news is no longer there and skeptical. >> cynical. you're right. there will be a big debate. if the battlefield looks like it looks today there will be a mayor debate. is this worth it? would the year change that? it's important that this year be a test of the strategy. give ukraine munitions and architect. see what happens and if the chinese step in to help them.

i think it is close to inevitable to have a debate on ukraine probably come late fall, early winter. >> let's look at where it is right now. learning more about the casualty estimates for russia. john kirby said the united states estimates that russia suffered 100,000 casualties since december. of that number more than 20,000 russian troops killed in action. according to kirby half working for the wagner mercenary group whose lead every reportedly told a blogger over the weekend he would be forced to withdraw the troops if they are not resupplied with ammunition soon. there's a lot of tension about whether or not some of these troops are being forced into battle for russia because of

casualties like this. taking the losses that they need more. >> yeah. i'm not sure either country is on a sustainable trajectory. this is world war i. the rate of carnage is quite stunning. not clear either side can sustain the manpower. can't sustain the rates of munition used and equipment churned up. if negotiations don't succeed i can see a situation where the intensity of the battle goes down. the war continues but not at the rates. i don't think either side can keep this up for long. >> let's bring in hal brans. an editor of can new book entitled "the new makers of modern world."

an interesting touch point. we'll diouf into the book and start with the state of the war in ukraine. is it sustainable in the modern age? what is the u.s. strategy? what are the potentials for u.s. strategic to perhaps try and move this forward in terms of supporting ukraine in a stronger way so it doesn't drag out in a bloody way as it already has? >> i think the cool reality of the conflicted is taking higher levels of support for ukraine to not let it make the breakthroughs. the ukrainians have a good shot in the current offensive to move the front lines somewhat but probably not likely retake the territory that russia conquered when they took crimea so i think we are likely to see a war that drags on beyond the offensive

and beyond the year and takes a fairly long term american commitment. >> what is this war and last year and change tell you about the modern strategy that you write about in this book which is to say the rallying of the west to the aid of ukraine, the strengthening of nato, a new member to nato, what has the war told you about modern strategy? >> to puncture the myth of putin as the master strategist. we spent 15 years thinking that he could hold the reins of power in his hand. he was able to do that in a few small conflicts and fallen flat on his face. he underestimated the degree to which the aggression to unite the west to bring a powerful response and to the degree to

drag down russian power for years to come. >> hal, good morning. it is richard. this book that many of us read an earlier edition. we are on the cusp of new technologies. ai, computing and the rest. what is your thinking about how the traditional laws of war, the lessons we thought we learned, how does it play out in chat gpt and ai robotics and the rest? classic rules still apply? are we entering a fundamentally different rae? >> the principles don't change a lot over time. but the practice of strategy changes enormously with new leaders and new technologies that come to the fore. i can give a couple examples of this. ai is going to revolutionize the

way that disinformation is done, make possible the creation of very sophisticated disinformation that will put democracies on the back foot i rememberly. also going to really speed up the conduct of warfare like drone swarms and human machine teaming that would have been impossible to do ten years earlier. >> we have the estimate of 100,000 russian casualtys. do you have a sense of ukraine's casualties like? obviously the war is tough on both sides. do we have a sense of what ukraine is losing? >> we have a sense but ukraine is guarded in letting the information out. in terms of managing the domestic and international

situation. we have to assume it is high. we have got to excuse me the manpower losses are high and probably a lot of best troops. it is again why the military people in pentagon and elsewhere think ukraine cannot sustain the warfare they have been on indefinitely. too many of the best trained troops have sustained casualties. are there low ethics on the high court. senator padilla joins the conversation just ahead on "morning joe." ♪ the all-new chevy colorado is made for more.

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time now for a look at the morning papers. we begin in wisconsin where the journal sentinel has a front page feature on a bill to lower the legal age to serve alcohol from 18 to 14 years old. opponents say this may put pressure on teenagers to illegal serve friends below the drinking age or drink themselves. west virginia and maine are the only states that allow minors to serve alcohol. i don't get it. >> in michigan the detroit free press reports general motors laid off several hundred contract employees. 500 agreed to leave the company. gm trying to shave $2 billion from the budget by next year. >> washington times says that

college students are choosing schools based on political beliefs. 72% say abortion laws in the school's state influenced whether they wanted to stay at that school. college bound high school seniors said they ruled out universities based on the state's politics or policies. they are getting involved. >> in massachusetts boston globe with a front page feature on aerosmith's final tour announcing to hit the road for the last time this fall playing 40 concerts across north america with the first in philadelphia ending in january in canada. sell tickets and go on another one. >> planning to see them in 2025. >> the next one. coming up the star of hit

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welcome back. following a string of mass shootings in the united states including the one we have been covering in cleveland, texas, on friday new polling shows young americans are more concerned about gun violence. in the latest fox news survey they say gun violence is the top issue facing the country. that is up 3% from a poll last year and up 15% from just 2 years ago when 1 pistons considered it the top issue. joining us is the president of next gen, the largest youth voting organization kristina ramirez. really good to have you on the

show. you will be announcing the endorsement in the 2024 presidential race. >> i lead and in 2020 we helped mobilize 1 in 9 young voters across the country leading to the largest vote turnout in history electing joe biden and kamala harris and ready to do it again because we know what's at stake whether it's gun violence, abortion, climate change. there is day and night between the two parties. >> in terms of gun safety i think young people are a lot of becoming tuned into politics, that and abortion. but in terms of gun safety, they feel this is a fight for their lives. >> yeah. you have young people afraid to go to school, literally worried about being murdered in their classrooms, a place that should be safe. they see congress is not acting.

they see the biden administration has done as much as they can, but the republican party feels bought and sold by the nra. >> what's the impact of climate change? young voters disproportionately care about that. how much of a driving force is that in your decision? >> it's a huge driving force. we were founded ten years ago to tackle the biggest problem in our time, climate change. they said it was a waste of money and time, that young people would never turn out. now it's ten years later, largest youth voter turnout the last three elections. we're backing joe biden because

he's really delivered for young people. >> young voters, 35 and under, that's the classification, correct? >> that's right. >> i have seven kids. i get the fact that they're worried about paying their college tuition loans. i get the fact they're wondering am i going to get a job commensurate with my skills, am i going to get paid equitably. i get the rental costs. i get trying to find a mortgage if you're married at 27 or 28. what i don't get is in the year 2020, according to this poll, only 1% of young voters felt gun violence was a real problem. now it's 16%. what are they missing? >> i think young people have inherited some pretty terrible problems.

they're inherited a climate crisis, attacks on abortion rights. now you have the issue of gun safety surging because there has been movement only because of young people. i live in the state of texas, where in uvalde we're coming up on the year anniversary of nearly two dozen people killed, including children. young people are demanding action. young people are terrified just to go to school. >> almost a year ago the supreme court repealed roe v wade. how have you seen activism evolve among women, among men, among the young voters you're around in the years since that ruling? >> taking us back 50 years on women's rights has mobilized an entire generation of young

people. last election we saw young people say they felt motivated to vote because they felt like abortion was on the ballot. we just had a wisconsin election where young women turned out. we're seeing across the country a surge of young women registering in voting huge numbers. this is going to continue to be an issue because we see the extreme right wing try to attack gay marriage, abortion access. how can you support joe biden, people say? i want to be clear that donald trump is no spring chicken. it wouldn't matter to me if he was 50 years younger than joe biden. his policies are from the 1950s and we are not going backwards.

>> president of next gen, thank you very much for coming on the show this morning. still ahead, attorneys for donald trump complete their questioning of the woman accusing the former president of rape. we'll have the latest. plus new developments in the legal battle between governor ron desantis and the disney company. plus, henry winkler will be our guest. , henry winkler will our guest.

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it's 6:00 a.m. on the west coast. welcome to the fourth hour of "morning joe." we have a lot to get to, including the latest in the deadly mass shooting down in texas. survives of the massacre questioning the response by law enforcement as hundreds of officers continue the manhunt for the gunman still at large. also ahead for the first time in 15 years, writers in the entertainment industry are on strike. we'll explain what makes this work stoppage different from the last one. and later this hour, iconic actor henry winkler is our guest. i literally dropped a pinkie tuscadaro reference. everyone started laughing because everyone with me was over the age of 50 and watched "happy days."

we'll talk to henry winkler about that. also his hbo hit show "barry" is nearing the series finale. we begin this hour with lawyers for donald trump yesterday finishing their cross examination of writer e jean carroll. yesterday his lawyers questioned carroll in an effort to find inconsistencies in her testimony, previous interviews and depositions. they grilled the writer about how her life has changed since she published a book in 2019 detailing the alleged assault. carroll said it's been, quote, fabulous, but added she puts up

a front because she doesn't want people to know she suffers. trump's lawyers argue carroll made up the allegation to boost book sales. the defense filed a motion yesterday seeking a mistrial. trump's lawyers say the judge has made unfair and prejudicial rulings. the judge denied the motion. the trial is set to resume this morning. it is not known who will take the witness stand. >> joining us, lisa rubin and state attorney for palm beach county, florida, dave aronberg. this is an extraordinary trial because it involves a former president of the united states. it's a familiar case to a lot of women, too many women in this country, which is someone saying, why didn't you say something sooner? not sure we believe you. what about your credibility? what do you see in some of the cross examination and testimony?

>> tired tropes about rape victims. it's unusual not only that the defendant is a frmer president but that e. jean carroll is a 79-year-old woman whose career has been varied. her experience has echoes of millions of women across america who stayed silent, never called the police, never screamed. it resonates with lots of women watching the coverage this morning. >> obviously a civil lawsuit has a different standard than a criminal trial. based on what you've heard, have prosecutors made the case here? >> they are not prosecutors. they're her private lawyers. although the gentleman who took her through her questioning is a

very skilled former prosecutor. they only have to show by a preponderance of the evidence. they have to show he intended to lie about her or he was reckless in what he said about her. >> this is painful to listen to the testimony. what are the arguments on trump's side? joe tacopina is pretty aggressive with the plaintiff in this case. at the same time there are questions. is that fair to say? >> look, i don't know what other defense there is other than to try and poke holes in her story, particularly because the former president isn't going to come here. he doesn't have an alibi. the defense is essentially you didn't complain, you didn't tell

anybody and you didn't act the way a trauma victim should. you went to bergdorfs still and shopped. you acted in ways that don't comport with what we understand a real rape victim should. she was asked by her lawyer, is there one right way for a rape victim to leave her life? she said no. >> donald trump is not expected to appear during this trial. give us your analysis. if he showed up, he'd be subject to cross examination. is that going to hurt him? >> it definitely hurts him. this is not a criminal case. this is a civil one with a lower standard of proof. you have to show that trump did it by preponderance of the evidence, is it more likely than

not. her credibility and the credibility of her witnesses -- she did tell two friends at the time what had happened. you have two additional women who will be showing up in court who will claim that trump did the same thing to them. that could be powerful evidence. plus you have the "access hollywood" tape. trump is not even showing up. it's not even a true he said/she said. his decision to stay away will hurt him. no one likes to be ghosted. juries are no different, especially in a community that voted overwhelmingly for trump's opponent. >> as for the criminal charges donald trump faces in new york in connection with a hush money payment, yesterday lawyers for the former president asked the judge to dismiss a motion filed by prosecutors last week that seeks to prevent donald trump from publicly discussing

evidence turned over to his defense team in the discovery portion of the case. the former president's legal team says the motion would infringe on trump's first amendment rights and would be a, quote, extraordinarily broad muzzle on the leading contender for the president of the united states. instead, they are arguing for a scaled-down version of the order. i understand there are reasons why possibly a judge doesn't want people to talk about it. >> we can see from the carroll trial what happens when there isn't such a muzzle on donald trump. the other morning he posted further allegations about e. jean carroll's lawyer being a democratic operative, raising the issue of dna. it's totally reasonable that the

manhattan d.a. here isn't lightly seeking the protective order they want in place, but is trying to protect the people who work in that office, their families, some of whom have protection right now around the clock. we're playing with fire here. every truth social post is incendiary. >> there are people who have 24-hour security because of things trump has said on social media. >> happy birthday, mika. >> thank you. >> i agree with lisa. it's not usual for a defendant to be running for president, so a judge is going to give them a little more leeway than he would other defendants. that's why despite the inflammatory posts on social media, the judge is not going to impose a full gag order on the president. he could impose a limited gag order. i think that's going to be treacherous sailing for the

former president. if he continues to speak out, he will get that limited gag order. if he violates that, he can get 30 days in jail for contempt. that may be the quickest way for him to end up in an orange jumpsuit. he's playing for the next call. it's like in sports. you want the ref to change his behavior for future calls. i don't think it's going to work, but they're trying everything. >> state attorney for palm beach county dave aronberg and legal analyst lisa rubin, thank you very much. in less than than hour the judiciary committee will hold a hearing entitled supreme court ethics reform largely in response to the recent revelations of justice clarence thomas accepting lavish gifts from a wealthy donor. joining us, democrat senator

alex padilla of arizona. thanks for coming on. i guess my first question would be, is there anything that the committee is looking at as it pertains to what supreme court justice clarence thomas did accepting these large gifts, even a house his mother lived in getting paid for? is there any consequence to this? are you looking at reforms moving forward? >> well, that's exactly the purpose of the hearing this morning. good morning, mika. happy birthday. >> thank you. very nice. >> as you're all well aware, the judiciary committee under the leadership of chairman durbin have tried a couple things. you know, was there going to be an opportunity to bring justice thomas in for questions? that was a long shot.

we reached out to chief justice roberts. he's declined to be in front of the committee. it tells us, frankly, that the supreme court is unwilling to police themselves. the reports that we've all read are unconscionable. the highest court in the land should not be subject to the lowest ethical standards. there's clearly an opportunity for congress to come in and establish clear standards for investigating when misconduct is reported, to have a better, clearer standard for recusals and other ethics laws and make sure there's an enforceable code that supreme court justices need to be held to. >> chief justice roberts has declined to appear at this hearing. it is rare for supreme court justices to appear at congressional hearings. but if he were there, what would you ask him or justice thomas?

>> first of all, when it comes to reports on clarence thomas's activity, the gifts he's received, the luxury travel, et cetera, you know, that's just unacceptable. think about the ethics standards and requirements imposed on the president of the united states, administration officials, every single member of congress. to think that same standard does not apply to supreme court justices is surprising and shocking to a lot of people, especially realizing how big a decision the supreme court makes, not just on issues of a couple of examples. the supreme court have infringed on voting rights. they've made it easier for wealthy individuals to influence politics and campaigns and for issues that make their way to the supreme court, whether it's

taxation issues, gerrymandering and everything else. there's no wonder why there's such a crisis of confidence in the decisions by the supreme court. they should be eager to restore that confidence, to restore public confidence in the institution as a body. if they won't act, then it's time that congress does. again, that's the gist of our hearing today. >> i look at what has transpired with this republican donor and supreme court justice clarence thomas and set aside his wife and the text to mark meadows. it's hard to see how he's not completely exposed. how does his decision making not get impacted from receiving such huge, lavish, several hundred thousand dollar gifts? >> you remember the famous story when dick cheney shot somebody

on a trip. scalia was on the trip. senator padilla makes the point that most people don't realize the standards are so lax for members of the supreme court. i actually, frankly, am surprised. i just assumed it would be similar to the executive branch or congressional. can you talk about a few rules that simply do not apply to the supreme court justices? >> again, for lack of a clear and enforceable ethics standard, we end up with this type of reported activity. for members of congress, just as a counter example, there are limitations on who we can receive gifts from and in what amounts. you have to disclosure income sources every given year. and i cannot vote and should not vote on anything where i have a conflict of interest. to think that does not apply to the highest court in the land is

frightening and clearly needs to be fixed. >> democratic senator alex padilla of california, thank you very much for coming on. we'll be watching the hearing today. turning to the fight over the debt ceiling, treasure secretary janet yellen is warning the federal government could face default as early as june 1st. between now and then, there are only eight legislative days in which both the senate and house are in session at the same time. let's bring in andrew ross sorkin and start right there. >> you're right. it's eight days. it's really 30 days as of today in terms of the negotiating, which is going to happen behind the scenes. goldman sachs just came out with a note earlier this week suggesting we would not hit that ceiling until perhaps as late as the end of july, which would have given them 90 days.

so now the rush is on. the real question, i think, at this point is whether the republicans are effectively going to stop pushing on some of these spending cuts or whether you think democrats will actually come to the table. i think the answer is still unknown. who really is in the advantaged seat at this point in those negotiations. of course, the democrats want a clean bill. the republicans have already approved or voted on that spending cut bill. so i think we're going to see where that go. this all factors into something else happening tomorrow, which is what does the federal reserve do in the conflict of raising interest rates against the backdrop of a potential default on the debt. they're expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. it's what they say after that.

do they say, we're going to pause? do we expect to continue to raise rates? that is the ultimate question the markets, investors and policy makers are going to be looking at in the context of this debt default issue. >> how long is the fed going to cool the economy, to use the term. the writer's guild of america voted to go on strike after last minute negotiations broke down. thousands of screenwriters are planning to be on the picket lines in just a few hours. miguel almaguer has details. >> reporter: overnight, the hollywood ending many feared, the writer's guild calling a strike, saying, for the sake of our present and our future, we have been given no other choice. on the met gala carpet,

a-listers voicing support. >> it will affect all of us, every part of the industry and people beyond the industry. >> reporter: writers like cody blue snider says many of his colleagues are making less than they did a decade ago because of how streaming has changed the industry. >> we're asking for a livable wage and for our jobs to be protected and for us to make residuals on the content we're creating. >> reporter: how will that impact you at home? that depends how long the shutdown lasts. the 2008 strike put some shows on hold for up to four months. >> their favorite late night shows will go into reruns. >> hosts like seth meyers, who's also a writer, voicing support for the union. >> i feel very strongly what the writers are asking for is not unreasonable. >> reporter: daytime soap operas

are also run out of scripts. >> if this lasts a couple months, we'll start to see the impact on the fall tv schedule and some movies will have to be pushed back. >> reporter: in the unlikely event a strike lasts more than six months, analysts say even next year's summer blockbusters could be affected. the alliance presented a package proposal to the guild last night which includes generous increases and improvements in streaming residuals. but this morning, no deal, as a high-stakes showdown comes at a pivotal moment for hollywood. >> the screen writers are going to be hitting the picket lines in just a matter of a couple of hours. this is an entirely different entertainment world than it was 15, 16 years ago, streaming, a.i. there are other factors at play.

>> it's hard to see how there could be a settlement of any sort that comes together quickly because of the issues you just talked about. you know, so many programs today are written by one writer for a series. oftentimes these series go on for one season or two. they're no longer 20 episodes a season. they're eight of ten episodes. you add a.i. you start to think about a writers room for a lot of these programs with six or seven or eight writers in the room. in the future there's worry you'll only need two or three writers in the room. what do you do about those economics? the networks are spending billions on programming. they'll tell you streaming has not been a profitable enterprise despite all the money that's

gone into it. there's theories in hollywood that some of the streamers may want a prolonged strike because it means they have to spend less and it's an even playing field. i think this is going to be a really difficult and tough negotiation. >> we'll be following that. i wanted to ask you about governor ron desantis and disney. the board appointed by florida governor ron desantis to oversee the land occupied by walt disney world is now filing a counter suit against the company. we've talked about how this is political malpractice on the part of ron desantis. what's going on here? >> what's so interesting about this, first of all, it is pure retribution. let's just stipulate that. it's against the don't say gay

bill. the governor has said it out loud. i know there's lots of debate about what he's really doing, but that's what it is. over the past week you've seen a number of republicans now come out effectively and say, you know what, what's going on in florida, that's not the way we as a party want to behave, given that the gop has long been a free market business friendly group, this is the opposite of that. it's unclear whether he can win this lawsuit or whether this is part of a larger national political campaign. even in that context, it seems not at the moment like a winner. >> makes no sense. andrew ross sorkin, thank you very much. coming up on "morning joe," the latest out of texas as the manhunt for a mass shooter continues. plus, we'll dig into what our next guest says are some of the most common myths about guns and

gun violence. also ahead, what the faa is doing to prepare for a busy summer travel season. travel sen

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the suspect in the deadly mass shooting in texas is still on the run this morning. more than 250 officers from local, state and federal agencies continue to search for the man accused of fatally shooting five of his neighbors,

including a 9-year-old child. >> reporter: for a community desperate for answers, there aren't many so far. despite dogs roaming the streets and police canvassing neighborhoods, there's been no sign francisco oropesa. >> it's truly unexpected. >> reporter: on monday a few false alarms. neighbors try to manage their terror. has it sunk in that you were witness to this sort of gunfire? >> that's what sort of is -- i get emotional thinking about it. i was here when that happened. i didn't do anything, but i didn't know. >> reporter: tears for so many coming with major revelations about the massacre.

wilson garcia, whose son and wife were murdered, called police late friday night after their neighbor refused to stop shooting a gun outside and threatened them. he says he and his family called police five times in about 20 minutes. he says the neighbor turned up at his house and began shooting. officials haven't responded about how many calls were made and how long it took officers to arrive. there's confirmation that oropesa had been deported multiple times. the community is focusing on the pain. >> could have been us, you know? it's scary. i think it's starting to sink in. thank god it wasn't my family. >> since 2018, more than 90,000 people have died because of firearms in the united states. just 122 days into 2023, the country already has seen 185

mass shootings. fred guttenberg joins us as well as top tom gabor. it's been five years since you lost jamie at parkland. it seems like every day we get another one of these stories. i watched you watch that woman absorb what happened in her community as it hits another community. it's an epidemic. >> it is. i want to say one thing to the two of you, because i do know it's your birthday today. if there's one thing i've learned in five years, it is to celebrate moments like that. happy birthday to you. and i know it's your birthday

tomorrow, so happy birthday to you. >> thanks you. >> i was talking about the book. tom came to me two years ago and said i've got a project i'm working on. i want to take on the lies of this lobby. ultimately that's why we are where we are today. i look at everything in the context of jamie's life. she would be 20 this july. she would be having the greatest time of her life, but she's not. this weekend i had to visit her at a cemetery. if you go back to 2003, jamie was just born. there were 200 million weapons in america. 20 years later, there's over 400 million. if you go back to 2003, ar-15

sales less than 2% of all weapons sold. now, 25%. i just told you everything you need to know to understand why we are where we are today. when i listen to abbott and the other insane liars in the gop who try to make this about immigration status, they are part of why we are where we are today. you know the one question he never asks, he never asks how did the guy get the ar-15? that's the only question that matters. part of the answer is, the policies in texas allowed it to happen. >> let's talk about this book, "american carnage." what is the biggest myth that you lay out in this book? >> the gun lobby and gun extremists have been promoting the notion that an armed

citizenry is going to be a safer society. if we get more people carrying guns as well as having guns in their home, we'll be a safer society. in fact, we're in a situation now where gun carrying has increased five fold people who carry a gun every day. the result, rather than being safer, we're seeing almost 50,000 gun deaths in the country each year. we're seeing a doubling of mass shootings over the last ten years. we're seeing half of americans now who have personally been impacted by gun violence, threatened with a gun, shot, had a family member shot or witnessed a shooting. so it's really coming home to

us. it's having a very adverse effect, this narrative that the gun lobby has created, because things are a whole lot worse. >> how many times have we heard a politician say, if only the teachers had guns, this wouldn't have happened. >> again, those are the liars telling the lies designed to do one thing, be a part of selling more guns. if i can ask everybody listening to the show to do me one favor, focus on motivation. there's the motivation of people like us who simply want to stop the next one, and then there's the motivation of those who are part of that lobby who simply want to sell the next one. don't listen to them. there's about 115,000 schools in america. since columbine there have been fewer than 400 school shootings. my daughter got caught up in something that is really rare.

the idea that selling a lot of additional guns to arm teachers is the solution to that is simply insanity. you know what will happen if they get their way? you'll have more gun violence in schools. you'll have emotional people carrying guns in schools who may react wrong. it is a deadly idea to say arming teachers is a solution to this. we need to deal with the reality that you can't range doorbell by accident or pull in a driveway by accident because we listened to these liars for more than 20 years and for 20 years we've doubled the number of guns in america. >> after uvalde and nashville, we're hearing questions about the police response, the police being outgunned, not fast enough, whatever the issues were depending on the mass shooting.

there are so many it's hard to keep track of them. we've heard from parents saying we think we need to arm because i don't know if i could get there quicker than the police. this mindset, the myth the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun. >> can i tell you where that line started? >> yeah. >> that started as wayne lapierre's response to the sandy hook shooting. four or five days after sandy hook is the day he said it. they turned sandy hook into a gun sales bonanza. the nra shifted course in the '80s, but this country, the majority of our history is as a gun safety country passing gun safety laws. that started to shift in the late '70s when the nra changed.

we saw the big push through the 80s and '90s. the real success of their effort in the early 2000s was stand your ground. they have been pushing us on this course which has led us to where we are today. what tom and i really hope to do with this book is arm people with the information to no longer listen to the liars, to say not this time and to vote with knowledge for someone who wants to reduce gun violence. >> we've had a rash of these shootings in recent weeks where someone goes to a house and gets shot or pull into the driveway. tell us about that legislation. >> stand your ground now has been applied in about 30 states. traditional self-defense really refers to or concepts of self-defense refers to an individual who's being attacked.

traditionally in english and american law, the person had a duty to retreat or find a way to deescalate a conflict. now if an individual has reasonable belief they're going to be harms, which might be a mistaken belief, such as the 80-year-old in kansas city who shot the young man. he may have had a reasonable belief, in his view, that this young man was about to break in. factually, it would have been very incorrect. the other aspect of stand your ground has been very toxic in florida where it was introduced where we saw 4400 additional homicides in the first ten years of that law. there is no duty to retreat. if you have that reasonable belief that somebody's about to attack you and cause you serious

harm, you can immediately move to lethal force. you have no obligation to retreat, to deescalate, to leave the situation. it's basically also called by those who share our beliefs a shoot first law. >> there's been some sort of fatalism among some politicians after the nashville school shooting. one infamous comment from a tennessee republican member of congress said we're not going to do anything about it. we can't do anything here, so just forget about it. you could ban every gun in this country today and there's nothing we can do about it. what's your answer? >> absolutely not dishonest lie. there is so much we can do to reduce gun violence. after parkland we passed gun

safety. red flag laws and we raised the age of 21. they have stopped gun violence. any legislator who speaks that way, you're one of the people i really want to help fire. my inspiration, what keeps me moving every single day is my belief in the american voter. i'll just say to every american voter listening right now, vote. in 2024, i don't care if you think it's a perfect candidate. if it's a candidate who says they have a plan to be part of reducing gun violence, who is going to be a part of a women's right to choose, who's going to be a part of defending freedom and democracy, vote. what the morons like abbott understand is that only a minority of people vote, and they typically only focus on their base for that reason.

guess what? in 2024, we are going to show up. america gets it. america doesn't want to have to live in fear anymore and we're going to vote because of it. >> fred and tom, everything we've been talking about, if you look at this number, people agree. these are issues that the american people want change on. they just have to get out and vote. >> solving gun violence is more popular than apple pie. that's what those numbers tell you. >> it's coming to a doorstep near them. the people feel it. >> the elected people better respond. >> "american carnage, shattering the myths of gun violence." s of. for adults who are undetectable, cabenuva is the only complete, long-acting hiv treatment you can get every other month. cabenuva helps keep me undetectable. it's two injections, given by my healthcare provider,

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nbc news correspondent tom costello has details. >> reporter: the countdown is onto the quasi official start of summer travel. with passenger levels at or exceeding pre-pandemic levels, the pressure is onto make that experience as smooth as possible. along the east coast, the faa says 169 newly activated high-altitude flight routes should make travel on the nation's skyways more efficient. one of the biggest changes, less zig zagging in the air with more direct paths. >> every minute counts. >> reporter: the faa says the move should make trips between airports including regional airports more efficient by shaving off time, helping to save fuel for the airlines and improving safety because the routes, which are mostly above 18,000 feet, use gps technology rather than ground radar. >> as you create new highways in the sky by using better

technology, you destress the whole environment. the experience for the pass gets better. you save fuel. you save emissions and you save time. it's a win-win for everybody. >> reporter: it comes as united and delta have trimmed flights into new york and washington to help with congestion. pilots on the picket line after their union voted to authorize a strike as it negotiates a new contract. >> what every pilot wants to have happen is we come to an agreement on a contract. >> reporter: importantly, u.s. law prevents immediate action, so a strike is not imminent. >> looking at the weather, nothing seems to be percolating yet. >> reporter: still, the biggest problem for all the airlines year round, the weather. >> if we get a thunderstorm on the east coast, it's going to have a much larger impact with the number of aircraft affected by that. coming up, emmy award

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yes. >> listen, i got to the bottom of the mountain and my cell just leapt to life. >> can't you just say i got

service like everybody else? >> barry burkman escaped from prison. it happened sometime late yesterday. >> well, he knows where this place is. >> i highly doubt he would be going to big bear. you're literally on the top of the mountain. >> you got to come back and get me. >> and bring you back to l.a.? no, listen, i spoke to the d.a. and he said it was an unfortunate event you're sequestered up there. >> i'm a sitting [ bleep ] duck, tom. >> that's a scene from hbo's hit series "barry," the fourth and final season follows the unusual story of a hit man turned actor as npr describes it over the past three seasons barry has stumbled into prime acting gigs and worked at building a life ruthlessly eliminating anyone who might discover his secret past as a killer. joining us now, emmy award winning actor henry winkler, he plays the role of barry's acting teacher, who is now fearing for his life. it is so good to see you. >> i'm happy to be here.

>> welcome. >> we have so much to talk to you about, including "barry." but can we -- a few hours ago, we were on the air, i don't know when, was it the first hour, the second hour, pinkie tescadaro, "happy days," i watched "happy days," i was an avid fan. she and leather, remember leather? >> leather tescadaro was a pleasure. a pleasure, a hard worker, and just a great scene partner. >> did pinkie have the, like, this, this -- was that you? >> no, no, no. she didn't do that. it was after i complained that all of a sudden she was giving everybody the thumb and i said i think that particular is taken. >> oh, the fonz. >> yes. >> exactly. i'm sorry. >> she came up with slapping her thigh. >> we're going to walk you

through every step of your career. >> i'm ready. i'm ready. >> that's pretty good. >> i'm excited. i don't want barry to get you. i'm on the edge of my seat. >> you don't? >> i don't. >> it gets so dark this year. and it is so wonderful. i bought a miner's hat so i could switch it on to see where are we going. >> oh, my god. that's good. >> he's amazing. >> he's something. >> for people who haven't watched the show, the few who may not have seen it, lay it out a little bit about your character and how he fits into the story. >> okay. barry burkman gets out of the marines, becomes an assassin. he follows a mark through a door in the first year. it happens to be an acting class. he goes, oh, my goodness, i don't want to kill people anymore, i want to be an actor. i'm his teacher. i become like his father figure. i deal with him better than my own son. and then it gets so twisted that

i, myself, am on the edge of my seat every week. because, remember, i don't see the other stories. i only am in my pod with the great bill hader, who is now directed all eight this year by himself. >> wow. >> incredible. >> and, so -- >> how did i do? >> incredible. >> thrilled with the way you laid that out. what do you think it is, the writing, you talk about the writers strike in the break, it is always the writing. is that what it is here too? >> the beginning and the end. the writer, if you don't have the writing, you don't have a piece. no matter how good you are, it is sometimes impossible to make caca good. >> you know, the beginning of the series, in your character, there was a level of self-involvement that was hysterical. >> it has not left.

now, i've had 14 teachers in my career, and i also know about this one teacher in l.a., one of the writers, alec berg, his wife went to this teacher, took notes and my character is based on that. then i added all my other teachers. >> why did you have so many teachers? you're terrific. >> you know why? because i got something from each one. stellar adler told me to sit down and shut up. and i didn't recover from that for many years. >> i want to show a clip, another clip of your show, with your character far away from the city ahead of barry's trial. take a look. >> okay. >> groceries in the fridge, half a cord of firewood, zero bars, it is fantastic. there is no way you could talk to the press. >> this is ridiculous. >> we all agree it is the best thing for you until the trial begins. >> you know i can't spend one night up here by myself. >> you'll have to make do. >> i made a mistake, but can't

we focus on all the stuff i did to protect you? >> i guess i'm just disappointed. >> can you stay with me? >> no. >> can i order coral tree cafe up here? >> that's what i love so much about the series, it's -- you know, you're on the edge of your seat and you want the character to live or you want something -- you think that all hell is going to break loose, but then there is a moment of levity and it is hilarious, the dark comedy. >> they're both funny. alec berg and bill hader are the creme de la creme of comedy. it is sprinkled through the show, no matter how dark it gets. >> are you -- you're at the center of this crazy popular beloved show. >> yes. >> you've been that way your entire career. it is kind of amazing. i joked about your resume, but it just has been relentless.

>> on 78th street and broadway, i had a dream i wanted to be an actor and i'm living my dream. i'm so grateful. i don't know what to do. >> you're doing a lot. you're very interested in eye health. >> i am. >> and working to, like, promote awareness there. >> you know, i had my father-in-law was one of the gifts that came with my marriage. he was a robust and a wonderfully funny, great dentist. ed. and i watched his eyes slowly deteriorate. and we knew he had age-related macular degeneration. but didn't know it had -- it had progressed into a geographic atrophy, a ga. and the thing is i think it is really important for people to go and have their eyes checked because this particular form, at this moment, either macular degeneration or ga, it is

unstoppable, and it is -- there is no cure at the moment. so, going to your eye doctor is so important. i was so happy when this biotech company who really cares about eye care asked me to join the team. >> so you're also -- you're releasing your memoirs? >> yes. >> "the fonz and beyond." i love it. >> and a children's book. >> you want a copy? >> yes. and i want the interview. >> i look like i'm together. i'm scared out of my mind. >> in our remaining moments, can i tell the story about timothee chalamet. >> i am at the golden globes, i see timothee chalamet, who was a wonderful actor. i never met him. i said i want to shake your hand. he said, i hug. he said, you know, i was in the fourth grade when you brought hank zipzer back to ps 87 and

read it to our assembly. he was in the audience and here i am hugging him. >> that's amazing. >> the circle is amazing. and lynn oliver and i have a new children's book, our 39th, coming out, in september about a little duck who wants to be a detective. >> oh, my god. >> who gets her eyes checked. it is an amazing thing. >> you brought it all -- >> she gets her eyes checked. >> so she can be a detective. >> i love this. >> weaving everything together. >> the fourth and final season of "barry" airs on hbo and hbomax. henry winkler, thank you very much. >> you're so welcome. can i just say, no matter what you think writers are so important. >> that's beautiful. that does it for -- oh, my gosh, we're late. that does it for us this morning. ana cabrera picks up the coverage right now.