june 24th, i'm ali velshi, we begin with the latest in the war in ukraine. the latest is taking place not in ukraine. it's across the border in russia. a town called rostov, rostov-on-don, it's one of the main staging areas for russia's invasion into ukraine. rostov it is under the claimed control of yevgeny prigozhin, the leader of the brutal wagner mercenary force. a force which, up until the last couple of, days was fighting on behalf of, russia notably in and around bakhmut. yesterday, prigozhin's force crossed from ukraine into russia, claiming control of rostov-on-don, you can see it near mariupol at the south at the bottom of your screen. they're claiming control of the southern military headquarters of the russian armed forces. which is located within the city of rostov-on-don. this is important because see where the war is being fought? luhansk? mario?

people the southern headquarters of the russian military is in this place. , rostov-on-don, prigozhin says he plans to lead his troops, quote, to moscow. speaking earlier this, morning putin confirmed prigozhin's claims. military and civilian functions within the city of rostov-on-don have been blocked. vowing to take, quote, decisive action to put down what he in the kremlin or calling the quote, armed rebellion that is being undertaken by a traitor. putin also vowed to not let the rebellion become a civil war. similar to the bolsheviks at the end of world war i. there are multiple reports indicating there has been small fighting along a major highway in the area. we presume that's between wagner and the russian military. as well as reports of convoys of military equipment being moved along that highway. russia's moving military into and around moscow and other major cities. you can see that mobilization on your screen here. this is moscow. these are pictures that were given to us by the moscow

times. military equipment inside the city of moscow in per passion for the defensive. it this all comes after prigozhin yesterday heavily escalated his public feud with these two men, russia's defense ministry and defense minister, sergei shoigu, the man on the, left and the head of russia's armed forces, the chief of staff, valery gerasimov. both who prigozhin hates and blames for russia's failure in ukraine. and also, for the wagner group's heavy losses. in a series of messages posted on telegram, prigozhin accused the kremlin of invading ukraine under false pretenses. calling it a quote, rocket. it wasn't done to, quote, demilitarize or the nazify ukraine, but instead to enrich shoigu, the defense minister, and other members of the ruling elite. prigozhin vowed that his troops would advance on moscow to punish russia's, quote, evil military leadership. prigozhin also claimed that one

of wagner's field camps was deliberately bombed by russian forces on the personal order of shoigu, who he claimed was in rostov-on-don. which is where prigozhin's forces have centered. joining me now, nbc's chief forest correspondent, richard engel, richard, you understand both this war and specifically the wagner group. and prigozhin, very very well, you and i spoke last night, you have had the day in taipei to digest and talk to people about this. where is your head at now about what's happening in russia? >> well, we are talking to u.s. military officials, two intelligence officials, following the news as best we can. there is a lot of information swirling. some of it unverified. but what is clear is that this leader of a mercenary army, prigozhin, he is launching a

insurrection, he is trying to take over some functions of the state. he has taken over at least part of one russian city, and according to russian governors, his forces are moving along with the highway. russian governors are urging civilians to stay away from the highway. so activity is taking place outside military -- outside of rostov-on-don as well. towards moscow. yevgeny prigozhin, according to military officials i've been speaking to, is more like a mafia boss who is making a play at running the mafia system. he is a burner who has been a close ally of vladimir putin going back to their early days in st. petersburg, who is now potentially trying to take over the entire crime syndicate. that is in analogy that one u.s. military official who i spoke to you specifically. this is an attempt by a low

level mid level mafia operator to unseat the godfather. and prigozhin goes back to putin, those early days, in the catering business. prigozhin is sometimes called putin's chef. he's not actually a chef, he might know how to, cook but that's not what his job. was he was a petty criminal. he was arrested and imprisoned for theft on more than one occasion. when he got out of jail, very smart, according to people i spoke to who know him personally and work for him, spoke to wagner defectors who described him as detail oriented, ruthless and ambitious. this is a man who, after getting out of prison, in st. petersburg, turned one hotdog stand into a chain of restaurants and most critically, for him, one of those restaurants became the young vladimir putin's hang out where his early inner circle spent

time. as latimer putin rose through the ranks, prigozhin, as an insider, but also an outsider, rose with him. this caterer has continued to cater to vladimir putin. offering special services. we talked a lot on this air. it was almost the only thing the american people talked about, election interference going back to the 2016 u.s. election. yevgeny prigozhin led a thing called the internet research group. this was the group that created all of the bots and created all of the false memes that were polluting peoples twitter feeds that were polluting that troll farms. so one of the special operations that this caterer provided to his boss, was a troll farm. whether that sway the election, or didn't sway the election, it

certainly created a lot of doubts about the u.s. electoral system, and created a lot of chaos. it created a lot of rage. and outrage that we are still seeing percolating through twitter and social media, and facebook, all the different forms. so this is someone who goes all the way back to the early days with lot of my putin. who has done special tasks for him. one of those tasks was the bot farm, the troll farm, another was creating the wagner group. the wagner group is the world's largest mercenary army at this stage. it was created by prigozhin in order to give putin an off the books force. so that putin could have an army, a private army, at his disposal that would carry out nationalist oriented tasks, but if its members died, they weren't sending body bags home to ordinary russian moms and

dads, who would potentially cause problems for the state. these were, in many cases, criminals, people who had other kinds of issues with violence. who could be brought into this mercenary army, and when they died, they were sent back home, they were quickly buried, and very few people ask questions about it. i went to central russia and many of these people were recruited from the poorest parts of central russia. and when the bodies came, back because first they were fighting in eastern ukraine, they were also fighting bashir al-assad in syria. when the bodies did go home, they were buried in secret, we weren't allowed to film them. it was a code of omerta that, yes, this group existed, by the, way for most of its existent wagner was operating in secret, but you couldn't talk about it. then, the big break out moment came with the invasion of ukraine about a year and a half

ago. wagner went into battle, fought in bakhmut and lost thousands of its fighters. again, many of them convicts, many of them undesirables who you could send into battle without having domestic backlash. and when yevgeny prigozhin was getting more and more frustrated because these senior defense officials, shoigu and garage them off, according to him, we're not providing his troops with ammunition. they were being starved of resources. because they were jealous. because they were concerned this rival was moving up through the world, was moving through the ranks of the kremlin, was becoming too powerful, they wanted to cut him off. and now we are at this point where prigozhin has his own private army, he has a particular grievance of, vendetta that he wants to

settle with -- at the very, least these two senior members of the defense establishment. and he's forces, his troops, they are on the move. and vladimir putin has officially declared him a traitor. what will happen next is the big open question. will this become a full insurrection against vladimir putin? is it a threat to the kremlin itself? clearly the kremlin believes that to a degree because it is reinforcing moscow. according to senior military officials that i spoke to, the next 72 hours are gonna be very important. and we have a particular importance to what is the behavior of the russian army. will they side 100% with putin? will they try to crush yevgeny prigozhin and this insurrection? >> we who -- it's going to be important to watch. thank you, as always, i have you at the top of her, dayton

at the end of your day. we always appreciate your amazing analysis. thank you, richard. nbc news chief correspondent. if you get a chance to look at, up richard filed some stories from the central african republic a few weeks ago about the wagner group and the part about his conversation via whatsapp with yevgeny prigozhin is particularly stunning. let's bring in nbc, matt wagner, who's covered russia, and the war in ukraine extensively. matt, i need to ask you about this because there are a lot of unconfirmed reports that wagner and his troops are on the move. i don't know whether they are keeping people in rostov-on-don, but there is talk that they are headed towards moscow. do you know anything about? this >> we thank, you ali, we are still trying to work it out. we're seeing a lot of videos on telegram, which is the prominent russian social media application. a lot of the stuff is shared, now especially when -- it's ironic. i want to point out. vladimir putin, over many, years has destroyed the independent press in russia, so

there's not a lot of information sources beyond the state media, even for the russian government to get a sense of what's going on. nonetheless, we are seeing things published by the wagner group themselves on their various channels. again, it shows us this rolling march to moscow. we are seeing videos that at least some of them were left behind, just now we're working on verifying. it but we're seeing claims -- the chechen leader, in, chechnya who is a classic strongman who underpin this regime. , pledging to send some of his best fighters to rostov to confront prigozhin and the wagner troops there. there's a lot going on. we're still trying to sort through it. and this is just going to play out over the course of the. day of course, as you, mentioned we're seeing evidence that the russian authorities are taking this march on moscow very seriously. they are starting to secure the capital. more specifically, secure the routes into the capital. they want to stop this from

entering moscow, that makes sense, so much of vladimir putin support publicly, so much of his justification of the war and the way in which he operates, the way he's prosecuted this war has been about keeping it off the streets of moscow. has been isolating the capital from the effects of this war. some of the major draft we have seen, largely targeting the region. so this, coming into moscow, would be very much felt by the population of moscow, as the war coming home, which has a direct impact on continued support for the war at home. >> but does that -- >> as richard engel -- said >> that, when the war comes home, sometimes that has the effect of having people say hold on a second, this was a distant upstart think, now it's here. i'm not into it. but sometimes it has the opposite effect. sometimes it rallies the nation to say, wow, this thing is on our doorstep now. we better fight. does the war coming home, showing up in major russian, cities if it ends up that these troops are anywhere close to

moscow, to we know how that plays out? russian public opinion is governed by which tv that is state controlled. >> correct, it's difficult to say how they will react to. it we've seen a few things in recent weeks. one thing to point out, prigozhin's whole sense of animosity towards the state is not about waging the war itself. it is about the way the war has been conducted, in his criticism, very poorly, with a lot of unnecessary loss of russian life. there is a very nationalist core message underpinning what prigozhin is saying here. but we've also, in recent, weeks seen some reporting in some of the russian independent press, in exile, outside of russia now, talking to what is called the middle -- middle class must muscovites. who are not supportive of the, were some of the maybe vocally not supportive. now they're coming around to supporting the, we're not because they support the president, or his policies, or think the war was a good idea, but it's this understandable

sense that, if russia loses, if my country loses a war, it is not good for me and my family and my daily life. so there is a very sincere risk of the war coming home triggers -- especially a place like russia, that has a history of repelling invasions. it's something that's important to understand about russian culture, this could trigger this kind of memory of the second world war and why grandfather fought. it's unpredictable, but it definitely -- that's one thing we need to watch out for here. >> matt, we are so grateful for your experience on the ground there and your analysis. matt wagner for us in london. he will be staying on the story, along with the rest of us at msnbc and nbc news. joining us now from moscow, it is nina khrushcheva, professional of international affairs of the new school. senior fellow of the world policy and former member of the council on foreign relations. nina, it's good to see, you i'm always hesitant to discuss this war with people who are in moscow because it often does

not end up well. first, of all what is the situation about your ability to even discuss these things given the restrictions that the russian government has placed on people who are inside russia and the way they talk about this war? >> well, i'm discussing this. war i never stopped discussing this war. i will very often, in the past, year year and a half, i've been in moscow and discussing the war from moscow. >> all, right let's have out of. then the issue here, nina, is your analysis, as an expert on russia. how much of a threat is this? number one, a real, threat is this really an insurrection or repellent? or is a coup attempt? some in the russian government are saying it. it is or is this just bad because prigozhin, who was on one side, he is now not on the side of the russian administration? how do you evaluate the extent of this threat? >> it is both. i, mean we still don't know how bad it is going to be, and this morning, i went around moscow

and around the kremlin. the red square was shut. but around the kremlin, and in the center, life was going on as if almost nothing was happening. when i was asking people what they think about this they set out, you know, putin is going to be protecting, us who is prigozhin? he has rapists and murderers. we don't want him. nobody's gonna come to their side. the information now that prigozhin arms vehicles are marching through, they started, south very close to the border of ukraine. but the ukraine -- then through leap its, and all these closer places. you're showing it on the. screen closer and closer to moscow. so five hours ago, the mood was, one now it's a little bit more we kind of cautious. also, around the center, it is quieter, but around the borders of moscow, there is more

armored, vehicles there is more of those field kitchens, so on and so forth. just in case. so it can be very dangerous for putin. and this is something that he has addressed. this morning he tried to curtail. he was very firm, it was actually very different tone. he considers it a personal mission a because he created prigozhin. he allowed wagner to flourish, and now it is, as he said, the stab in his back. so it is quite a revolutionary situation, but we still don't know how it's going to play out. it's absolutely dangerous for the kremlin and putin. >> there is a fairly active pro democracy movement in russia, a lot of the leaders are in jail. if you would like russia to be more democratic than it is, and if you don't like vladimir putin, i'm not sure for many

people, sergei prigozhin, looks like any kind of an alternative, right? it's not that his policies about how russia would run or, even as it relates to ukraine, i'm not sure his views about how the rest of the world should go are uniquely different from putin's. he seems to have a beef with sergei shoigu and the way the defense establishment in russia has been treating him and his people? >> god. no of course, i mean, it's basically the fight for who is more nationalistic. who is more -- putin started the, war he's been prepped by certain historians. people with money, the oligarchic's thought well, we are going to do it this way, and suddenly, a year and a half into, it he is not forceful. enough he's not -- prigozhin's, for example, he saying well, people are being killed. young boys are being killed in vain.

and prigozhin is the one who is eliminating people as if they are garbage. so it's not like he is saving the lives. and also, he is arguing for better russian fighting, it's not an argument for better russia. he is argument is four more naturalistic russia. more militant russia. for a russia that is going to pretend that it's democratic, at least to some degree. that is the fight. so all the liberal oppositions really have no -- they have no room in this fight. >> right, and i think that's an important thing to take into account. let's talk about this from the perspective of challenges to the russian government through history, and coups elsewhere through history. this column appears to be moving towards moscow. it will not, on its, don't succeed. prigozhin, at the head of it,

if it is to be believed, 25,000 troops, we don't know this to be a fact. but if he is ahead of 25,000 troops, he's not able to defeat the russian military. but others could join him. other generals could join. pi popular sediment, could there be an uprising? what do you believe is likely to happen? as you, said in a matter of hours or the next few days. something is going to happen with this group of troops that are moving towards moscow. >> well, that is kind of the thing. yes, 25,000 will do it. but at the same time, the state of the russian army has been shown in the last year and a half. it's not a great state of the russian army. do they really know how to fight people who have no we -- all this military, human rights, whatever those with forms of military rules, they don't really follow them. so they can be extremely violent and brutal, something

that even the russian army might not be able to we measure up to. so that is the question. i think that is why people with -- things he can go. the russian military doesn't show itself in the best. light we don't know how that's going to play. out so far, as we see, they have not been. stopped so who is not stopping them? why are they not stopped? are they waiting for them to get to moscow and then demolished them? so it's very unclear what is -- and who is exactly -- is this just prigozhin? or are the people who originally we talked to putin and talked to putin -- well, it was his decision, but in cahoots with putin to push for the war in ukraine. this nationalistic war in ukraine. they decided that the nationalism is not strong enough. now the are we prigozhin, who's gonna make it more of a

militant,, violent nationalistic. these are people behind prigozhin. too then that coup has a chance to succeed. if 25,000 -- we don't know how the russian army with that is not equipped, well maybe they think prigozhin is a better leader for them. because at least they would get ammunition, they would get properly, paid and whatnot. i'm not an expert. i cannot comment on what people in the provinces, i, mean the army people in the provinces, what kind of mood they are. and not in moscow, but the provinces may be an entirely different story. >> nina, thank. you please stay safe. we appreciate your advice. international affairs of the new school and the senior fellow at the roof policy institute. she is joining us from moscow. more velshi after a quick break. we velshi after a quic break. break. we cold water, on those stains? ♪♪ cold water can't clean tough stains? i'd say that myth is busted.

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ongoing situation in russia and that the administration is monitoring the fast-moving development. also this, morning the ukrainian president, volodymyr zelenskyy, reacted to the situation unfolding in russia. tweeting, quote, russia's witness is obvious. full scale weakness in the longer russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain and problems it will have for itself later. it is also obvious ukraine is able to protect europe from the spread of russian evil and chaos. we keep our resilience, our unity and strength. all our commanders, all our soldiers know what to do. glory to ukraine, and. quote joining me now from kyiv is nbc news correspondent, kelly cove, kelly, as remarkable as this was unfolding, late last, night overnight your time in kyiv. the one thing that was happening is you had a lot of attacks on kyiv last night. they were mostly, if not all repelled by air defenses. but russia, i don't know if it

was related to this or not, but there was a bit of a show of strength last night about. kyiv we are looking at imagery about what appears to be a hit in residential buildings. >> that is right. i heard the first air raid siren around 11:30, close to midnight. there were more as the night were on. the ukrainian government said roughly 40 russian missiles were fired towards ukraine, about 20 of them towards the capital here, kyiv. they intercepted most of them, as you know, the biggest danger right now, as ukrainians are able to defend the skies over kyiv, the danger is the debris from those intercepted missiles. the ukrainian government says some of the debris from a russian missile did strike an apartment building not far from where we are, about a 15-minute drive from here in the capital. three people killed, massive hole blown into the 16th floor

of that building, and earlier in the day, the mayor was saying they are still searching for others. no update yet on whether there were further casualties or anyone else rescued. there were some people taken to the hospital. we talked to one woman who was just four floors below, she and her husband were sleeping, they were worried about air raid sirens. they heard them earlier in the night. they were closely following the governments channels, to see where those incoming missiles were headed. then, simply, fell asleep. woke to this massive sound of explosion. they said they were thrown from the bed with their four year old daughter. grabbed the pets, and their daughter and try to evacuate through the building. thankfully they weren't seriously hurt. but three people injured. so these kind of things continue to happen. even though there is somewhat a sense of safety in parts of ukraine. it is not complete safety by any means. people are still on.

edge these things do still happen and as this woman told me earlier today, she said, you know, we do still worry. we always think it's gonna happen somewhere. else we worry that one day, one of these fragments is going to hit where we. live and sure, enough for, her it happened overnight. >> we kelly, thank, you please stay safe. you and the team in ukraine, while some ukrainians think this is a good development, some, don't it is definitely a dangerous development, one where the other. kelly, and our brave team and ukraine. we will be right back. ukraine. we will be right back. we will be right back. with type 2 diabetes you have up to 4 times greater risk of stroke, heart attack, or death. even at your a1c goal, you're still at risk ...which if ignored could bring you here... ...may put you in one of those... ...or even worse. too much? that's the point. get real about your risks and do something about it. talk to your health care provider about ways to lower your risk of stroke, heart attack, or death. learn more at getrealaboutdiabetes.com

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breaking news out of russia. government officials accused yevgeny prigozhin, ahead of the wagner group, of leading an armed rebellion. they're calling for his arrest. the mercenary force claims control of the russian city of rostov on dawn. it's the largest city in southern russia. it is a strategically important

area for vladimir putin throughout his invasion of ukraine. rostov-on-don is located 60 miles from the ukrainian border. one of the main staging areas for russia's invasion. in fact, russia southern military district command from which a lot of the invasion has taken place, is based there. it also houses the command center for the russian joint group's forces. prigozhin has vowed to lead his troops to moscow. those are his words. right now, reports indicate the wagner force is moving north towards the russian capital. joining me now is the retired navy admiral, the former supreme allied commander of nato, he's an msnbc chief international analyst. admiral, it is an important moment. this may turn out to be nothing or nothing important. or this may be a coup underway in russia. this is an armed state. it is a nuclear arms state. at war with a u.s. ally.

this could be one of the most important things that many of us have watched in years. >> entirely possible, i want to begin by saying we all need to be humble in our predictive power at this point. it is uncertain how this is going to spin out, allen. but as you and i have discussed many times, history guides us and gives us a case that we can look at. it is starting to feel more, to me, like about 100 years ago, just over 100 years ago, 1917, the russian revolution. i don't want to overstate that. but if you think of prigozhin as similar to those russian sailors, famously, on the battleship who revolts in 1905, it plants the seats that ultimately lead to the overthrow of saar nicholas the

second. the last saar of russia. this drama has quite a ways to go. i wouldn't want to bet either way right now. i wouldn't count out prigozhin. final thought on him, you are showing his video right there, he is a serious player. he is not going to fold his cards and get scared and back. off he is someone like julius caesar, who has now crossed the -- putin, on the other, hand equally determined in his recent statements. these two scorpions are headed right at each other. >> so this is interesting, what you just, said you talk about julia cesar crossing. the importance of that was that there was a rule that you cannot lead your troops into your own country. so when julia-seater crossed the river in command of his troops, it doesn't matter what your intent, is it's the idea that prigozhin knows his history. he understands what this is

meant to say, and it's sending that message. how did the rest of us, how does nato, how does the rest of the world in value wait. we should not put too much faith in our predictive powers. but obviously, the canadians, the brits, the french, the germans, they're all studying this and having to prepare in some way. if you are the supreme allied commander of nato, at this, point what would you be doing this morning? when >> i think the same thing is happening, as you mentioned, directly in those capitals, but really the trifecta is the supreme headquarters allied powers here of the nato pentagon. the u.s. pentagon, in langley. the cia. all three of them, i can assure you, they are focused like a laser on first and foremost the location, and the status of russian nuclear weapons. we mentioned a few moments ago, the echoes of the russian revolution. it turns into five years of

real chaos across russia. news flash, in 1917, there were no nuclear weapons. now there are thousands. so our side has to be very focused on those, for all the obvious reasons. number two, we are focused on how this helps ukraine. i don't see a way in which it hurts ukraine, frankly. it's going to continue to degrade the russian military. if these two sides get in a battle, it distracts attention from the main effort. it overall up winds the ukrainians. i think those are the two things that the headquarters we just discussed are really focused on. >> to that second, point i was speaking to a commander from the georgian legion. these are georgian soldiers who fight with ukrainians against the russians. and he was saying something interesting. he said, what wagner did is it filled in some of these blanks that the russian military had in ukraine.

which was able to hold this war in a stalemate. if these russian soldiers need to be pulled back to defend russian cities from wagner, plus, the wagner soldiers are leaving ukraine, that leaves a whole lot of vacuum in ukraine for this counteroffensive that is underway to be filled. the ukrainians might succeed where they were otherwise getting dug in? >> ali, military strategy in history are showing this morning, you are absolutely correct. this is a main effort pillar that is getting pulled out and you just can't imagine anything that will divert the evil eye of the kremlin from what it ought to be focused, on which is countering the ukrainian offensive. now, they are in a death fight, by the way, i'm watching this and you think back six months ago, when prigozhin caught on the scene, and i think the

assessment correctly was that putin kind of used him as a bit of a cat's clock to distract, to create factions inside his own inner circle, to make sure his military knew that there were critics. he could use prigozhin and he used him pretty effectively in that way. now, putin's tone has changed entirely. he is wearing his undertaker suit this morning. he gave a very dramatic statement. putin is like an ancient asian strategist, son, sue whose bottom line was, went on death, ground fight, in other words, the time for maneuvering is over. putin is going to go at prigozhin with everything he's got, when >> something is going to happen on that road to moscow. we just don't know what it is. thank you, as always, the retired admirable, the former supreme allied commander of a tornado. and feces chief international analyst.

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amnesty to mercenaries if they surrender. according to russian state media, adding a wagner fighters can still later their arms and avoid punishment, and, quote if they act quickly. roadblocks have been set up, reportedly on moscow's remember as wagner claims to be making its way northward. the mayor of moscow has ordered its citizens not to go to work on monday, in order to, quote, minimize risk. turning to washington, president biden has been briefed again this morning on the ongoing situation in russia. according to a white house official,. the administration continues to monitor the fast moving developments. the official added, meanwhile, sky news is reporting that a russian government plane took off from moscow and then switched off its transponder about 20 minutes later. meaning it can no longer be tracked. the plane headed northwest. in the direction of st. petersburg. we do not know who was on that

plane, why it was in the, air or exactly where it's heading. we now clearly don't know where it is. all, right take a look at this. map rostov-on-don is at the bottom, 60 miles from the ukrainian border. this is the last reported wagner group advances as they head towards moscow. they are more than halfway towards moscow. they may have advanced more than 200 miles since the start of the day. joining me now is the former congresswoman, james harmon of california. she's the president of the woodrow wilson center. and the chair of the commission for the group, national defense strategy. jane, thank you for being here. please put on your hat as a student of history and we un-american looking at this, what are you alarmed about and what do you make of what's happening in this -- with what russia is calling an attempted coup? >> ali, you've had some amazing guests including khrushchev's

daughter. now recently, my friend who has said so many things i agree with. i'm thinking of the more things that they mentioned. let me try. first, be careful what you wish for. people who think that if putin falls, something better will happen in russia, they could be wrong. the program at the wilson, center which is highly regarded away set. that what comes next could be worse. and i'm worried about that. what kind of a leader could prigozhin be? that is one. number two. with zaporizhzhia, the new color facility in ukraine. the press report the last two days were, according to zelenskyy and his people, the russians were preparing to attack. if it is prepared, that might be something putin could order without involving more troops. and that is an attack on a nuclear facility, and that could mean this whole thing we have been worried about, which was some kind of use of nukes

in ukraine, devastating development. number two, number three, navalny, i haven't heard him mention. maybe he was, he is in prison. he is vulnerable to attack by his russian guards. i don't know where that stands. that is something the u.s. is interested in. that's three more things for. thought >> let's talk about uvalde, for a second, i'm glad you brought up. vladimir kara-murza, he's in, jail there is a pro democracy movement in russia that would very much like to see vladimir putin weekend, but the guy you want we can hang him his not prigozhin. he's not a pro democracy guy. he's not the guy who thinks the war in ukraine should be over. he -- this is the problem, when you get a coup that is administered by someone who's kind of on the same side, i think khrushcheva was saying, these guys are battling it out as to who's more nationalistic. >> well, there's, that and i should've mentioned, i'm the

chair of the board of freedom house, who just gave him an award. his family lives in washington. hugely brave. let's add the wall street journal, who said he was supposed to have some form of getting out of jail a few weeks ago. it's now been extended until the end of august. so there are ways that -- i would, think i might be wrong, but the prudent government can still be very damaging. zaporizhzhia is another one. i think we need to be careful. outside of russia, i think the biden administration is being careful. to call for any form of regime change, that should happen by russians in russia. if we do that, first of all, we are violating what we said we were gonna. do second of, all a huge amount of countries in the -- we just had a visit by, india which is our, friend but -- and i know that they're not totally aligned with. us they may break from us. what we want to do is hold world, unity as much of it as

we can, for some form of democracy in russia. for a good outcome in. ukraine and obviously the west is gunning for ukraine winning. this ridiculous illegal war that putin has waged against. it >> thanks very much for your analysis. we always appreciated. we know i do in particular. former congressman, president of the wilson center and chair of the commission of the national defense strategy. we will be right back. we will be right back. dupixent is an add-on treatment for specific types of moderate-to-severe asthma that's not for sudden breathing problems. dupixent can cause allergic reactions that can be severe. get help right away if you have rash, chest pain, worsening shortness of breath, tingling or numbness in your limbs. tell your doctor about new or worsening joint aches and pain, or a parasitic infection. don't change or stop asthma medicines, including steroids, without talking to your doctor. ask your specialist about dupixent. - representative! - sorry, i didn't get that. - oh buddy! you need a hug. you also need consumer cellular.

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hi, i'm tony hawk, and like many of you, only pay for what you need. i take a statin to reduce cholesterol, but statins can also deplete coq10 levels. that's why my doctor recommended qunol coq10. qunol has the number one cardiologist recommended form of coq10. qunol. the brand i trust. he's the editor at -- professor of public affairs at columbia university. the author of the power of crisis. three threats and our response to change the world. this morning, we are going to talk about russia because you and i are here to talk about china and india.

we cannot resist anymore. we need to talk about. this you are an expert on russia. you have lived in russia. i just need to start with one piece of information, two pieces of information that we have right now that are relevant. one is, and i'm gonna ask mark to confirm, one nato country has shut its border. latvia has shut its border with russia. immediately, and a plane has left moscow towards st. petersburg. it's tracker has been turned. off we don't know what that's about. but this is feeling more like an actual threat to the russian administration than it did 12 hours ago. >> there is no question about. that this is the biggest piece of news that has happened since the russians invaded on february 24th. it is very serious in terms of the future of russia. the disposition of its forces. its ability to maintain security, its control over nuclear weapons, biological, weapons all those things. also its ability to fight the russian war in ukraine. not to mention, what putin does

as he feels increasingly cornered on both of those fronts. we should not understate the level of uncertainty and danger that comes around this. >> this is your specialty,, and you are saying x is happening. we in the media can be fully engaged with covering where prigozhin's, and the moment of his troops, and what this means. your job is to think bigger than. that to say, what does this -- how does this affect everybody else in the world right now? what is your evaluation of the level of risk that has either increased or decreased for the world as a result of the events of the last 12 hours? >> the biggest thing that has happened is that putin is in an increasingly unsustainable position. there's a reasonable likelihood he'll be able to repress this uprising and prigozhin will end up captured or dead. i wouldn't make a bet on, it but if you ask me which way i think it will go, that's what i

would say. but that is very different from saying putin then has a stable russia. no, putin created this monster, mr. prigozhin, who is directly responsible to putin outside of the traditional reigns of authority of the russian military. now he is going to the russian military to say, i need you to take care of this mess that i created. kind of like the failed ukrainian war, that really undermines his power position in russia going forward. it probably means they have to have martial law. they have to have an ongoing surveillance and police state. it's much more repressive for the average russian than it has been for the last year and a half. that creates more internal instability. it makes it harder for putin to keep his ducks in a row among the top security forces that are inside the ministry of defence. the other point, ali, is that all of these forces that have been fighting in ukraine, well, the counteroffensive has not gone so well. but now wagner is not part of that. the supporters are going to

fight against the wagner types. the remaining russian forces, if they, stay are gonna be spread very thin. that gives ukrainians a tremendous opportunity to retake a lot of their land. it also means that, to the extent that putin has so-called red lines, like maintaining control of crimea, being able to defend the land bridge between russia and crimea, those red lines might be broken. what will putin do in a position where he can see himself humiliated and losing power with no friends on the international stage? and looking bad at home. what does he do? what actions does he take? that is where i get concerned. >> right, and that's why the canadians are meeting this. morning the brits are beating this morning. the french are meeting this morning. the security establishment are all meeting because they're asking that question that you just, asked what might putin do if cornered? obviously, he brings up a new color think all of the time. most people who study this think that it's usually just talk.

but, could a putin feeling threatened do something more risky to the world? >> well, it's clear that the willingness of putin to leave ukrainian land completely destroyed as opposed to allowing the ukrainians to take it back, it is relevant. we saw just a week and a half ago, how the cough covid dam was destroyed. they had control of the dam at the time. this leaves the obvious question, how about the new color planned? the largest in europe in zaporizhzhia? with the russians consider blowing it up as opposed to losing it to be retaken by the iranians? that has to be at least a realistic plausibility. what might that mean for all of us, for the millions of ukrainians living in the area, for god forbid any radiation that comes out of it? or -- that kind of terrorist activity

from the russian government. i think that would be much more likely than, for example, the use of the tactical nuclear weapon by the russians. these are unthinkable scenarios. but then you also have just the control of all of the russian military. will it be under unified control? they have a lot of capabilities. they have cyber capabilities, biological capabilities. we just don't know in a weeks, time in a month time, to what extent putin is going to be able to actually have a vision over what they're doing. and provide orders that will actually be followed. this is a very dangerous time to have a country like russia as a rogue state. >> he, and the unbelievable thing about you, you and i are meant to have a different conversation, which we will, have because america can have adversaries in china and russia and india all at the same time. that has been a very important subtext all week with joe biden calling she jinping a dictator and setting modi of india.

we will have to put a pin in that conversation. but we will have, it thank you for your great analysis this morning. he and burma is the president and founder of eurasia group angie zero media, and at the author of many books including the power of crisis, how three -- that does it for me, thanks for watching. i will be back here this afternoon at 4:00 and 5:00. for a special report on the situation in russia. i will be back here from 10 am to noon eastern. our breaking news coverage continues after a quick break. my friend richard louis, sitting in for alex when, right after this. after this. love what i'm seeing here. that's some well-coached chicken. you done, peyton? the subway series just keeps gettin' better. our heritage is ingrained in our skin. the subway series and even when we metamorphosize into our new evolved form,

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here in new york city, welcome to alex witt reports. i'm richard louis in for alex on this saturday for you. we're covering all of the angles of what has been a fast moving saturday breaking news coming out of russia and ukraine. we have nbc's kelly cole b.a. for analysis, also fill breedlove, this is the biggest threat to vladimir putin's leadership so far since he came into power. we're looking at live pictures for you right now, coming out of moscow, seven pm in the evening. vladimir putin feeling very worried -- forces from the wagner mercenary group making their