>> -- here in new york city, welcome to alex witt reports. i'm richard louis in for alex on this saturday for you. we're covering all of the angles of what has been a fast moving saturday breaking news coming out of russia and ukraine. we have nbc's kelly cole b.a. for analysis, also fill breedlove, this is the biggest threat to vladimir putin's leadership so far since he came into power. we're looking at live pictures for you right now, coming out of moscow, seven pm in the evening. vladimir putin feeling very worried -- forces from the wagner mercenary group making their

way towards the city. earlier today, that group seized control of military headquarters in a southern key russian city. they are now on a northern track towards the capital city of moscow. about halfway. this is also a view for you this morning, moscow's mayor, just moments ago, saying a counterterrorism operation declared in the city, in moscow. this is canceling the workday, it is asking people to stay home. obviously not a common situation or request. also new for you at 12 pm eastern in new york city, vladimir putin mobilizing troops in an address to the nation vowing to crush what he calls an armed rebellion. this rebellion led by the group's leader, yevgeny prigozhin. whose forces, up until the past couple of days, we're fighting alongside russia in ukraine. today, not that day. not that way. on friday, prove goshen accused

the kremlin of invading ukraine on false pretenses. putin today vowing to punish anyone who takes up arms against a russian military. that's last 24 hours. we're covering the angles as i was mentioning for you on this breaking news story. nbc's kelly colombia. we also have filled breedlove, nato ally commander plus, mark poly -- nbc national security and intel analyst. kelly get us up to date. we have a lot of developments, just within the last hour. borders are being closed, we just were announcing what the mayor is now doing in moscow. what are you seeing? >> that's right. we are hearing that many of the governors in surrounding region south and southwest of moscow are now advising people to stay home. they are closing roads in some cases, restricting travel. of course you mentioned the mayor of moscow saying that there is a special anti-terrorism operation declared in moscow urging

people to stay home. essentially saying today, the workday is canceled. on monday, not just today but through monday. he said the situation is difficult, in order to minimize risk, this is something they needed to do. the last known, or believed position of these wagner forces is about 250 miles south of moscow, along this main road, the and four, which connects rostov-on-don, close to the south, to moscow. a couple of hours ago, the governor of the province of lipetsk announced that wagner forces were in the area and told people to stay home. you hinted, you gave a little bit of a briefing of how this all developed. , and it's really moved very quickly over the past 24 hours. there was this extraordinary message, this all out attack on the russian military, by wagner leader yves ghani prigozhin

about 12:14 hours ago. in which he said that russia did not invade ukraine because ukraine was going to attack russia. russia invaded ukraine so the top military commanders could enrich themselves with metals and with other things. and that this is really a corrupt enterprise. essentially attacking the main justification for war that president putin has been talking about now for, well since the war began. after that happened, prove goshen claims there was an attack on his forces. moscow says that they did not attack prigozhin's forces. and early in the morning you had the wagner group claiming, and prigozhin claiming that they had taken control of this city. rostov-on-don. a city of 1 million people, just across the border of ukraine, on russian territory, and that they'd also taken over a key military base, the

headquarters for the southern command, the place where the ukrainian war, the war against ukraine has been prosecuted, since the beginning. and also a major military logistics hub. this is a key, key place, and a strategic position for russia and its war against ukraine. now, it is difficult to verify, and confirm a lot of this information. a lot of this is coming from wagner affiliated social media channels. but we have seen the video record of wagner forces in rostov-on-don, there are tanks on the streets. there are soldiers milling about. it doesn't appear as though there is any sort of fighting happening there. and then up the road, about 250, 300 miles of the road, there were reports of wagner forces making headway, and also unconfirmed reports of fighting. quite frankly, we simply don't

know any more about that. whether that is some sort of, whether there is any fighting between russian forces and wagner forces, or what the explanation for those reports could be. we're trying to track that down. you mentioned president putin, he has come out very strongly, a five minute address to the nation, calling this a step in the back to the russian people, and promising decisive action. the big question now richard, what is private oceans and game? we simply don't know right now. richard. >> kelly thank you, great summary to start this hour for us. let's get over to general breedlove. where are we in the timeline right now? what do you see where we're at, and where we may be going? >> well thank you for having me aboard. you had some great commentary by my predecessor there. there were some important points made, that i hope we can speak a little more about. >> absolutely. >> the idea that there is a

problem between mr. prigozhin and the leadership in moscow is not new. this has been playing out ever since the battle for bakhmut, where he said he wasn't being appropriately supported, and his soldiers were die because russians military leadership was not giving him what his soldiers needed. so this, this skirmish of leadership has been going on. but this, this last 24 hours, where mr. prigozhin has actually taken military action against russian forces, that is a very quick and hard-hitting affair. and so it is moving quickly. there are rumors now that a nether large city, to the north of rostov-on-don has been taken. and that there is fighting in the outskirts of that city, where it intersects with this very important road, the and for. may i just say, two things should not escape us. one, this is a big problem for

mr. putin, in moscow. but it is also a big problem for mr. putin's army in ukraine. because now the soldiers fighting in the south, when they look over their shoulder, to wear their support, and their command in control comes from, it has been taken over by mr. prigozhin's troops. so moscow's troops are no longer in charge of the area that supplies the fight in southern ukraine. nor the commanding control of those forces in southern ukraine. >> well general, you're talking about the timeline there, potentially some areas where the wagner troops are believed to have been reported to be there. possibly some conflict as well. what we've done, you've looked at some of the reporting, also nbc sources in addition to, that the ap m reuters. roughly this is what we are seeing in terms of what may have happened in the last 24 hours. you look at rostov-on-don, and

please do, it will get to the fact check from you. we'll get your response. around 4 am eastern, wagner claiming that they have taken over this key russian military center, very important control center. it is about 12 hours to moscow by that and for highway. so around forrie am, getting various reports, not only president putin saying that there is some concern there, but also, we heard from wagner's leader as well. then, when we go forward, in that timeline, we have verona's. around seven a.m., to tanks spotted in the area going north. this is about six hours to moscow. moving in that timeframe as you can see here it's about a six hour drive, where we have various reports, but this again, the report at 7 am eastern. then at 11 am eastern, wagner vehicles in the area of lipetsk. this is about an hour north

this area here, again, by the maps, five or six hours to moscow. various reporting in terms of how this is moving along, where the wagner forces are. again, about 100 kilometers outside of the ukraine side of the border. and then, into russian territory, into voronezh and then into lipetsk. that was 11 a.m.. it is 12, as you know, eastern at the moment. i want to first get your response from mark, and then over to you, general breedlove. but mark, what do you think of that timeline? >> i think things are moving really quickly. and this begs the question, you know, we just were thinking that russia was a stable security state. it looks like it's not. prigozhin, as he's launching this coup, in my mind, certainly had a sense that he could be successful. i think one of the things we should look at, is has he actually recruited sources within the russian security establishment? we don't see a lot of fighting. as he moves closer to moscow,

that lack of confrontation is going to be really telling. perhaps this was a lot more well-planned than we thought. one of the things that of course comes to mind, is did the u.s. intelligence community know this would happen? did we have advanced warning that promotion would launch this. and did he have support within the security services? which really is the foundation of the russian state. >> yes, general, what do you make of reporting that we have summarized on the screen here. so quickly, even if we're plus or minus, this is a fast move by wagner. >> it is, but remember that wagner was planning this ahead of time. and so they may have had forces already near voronezh that we're prepared to go into the city. it wasn't necessarily a six-hour road march to get their. though i'm sure some forces did move along that road. but there was probably already forces ready to make this move. this wasn't starting at

rostov-on-don and then move. i think what you hit on, which is very important, is neither of rostov-on-don nor voronezh, did we see massive fighting. which tells me that the people of these two cities have been, at least, to some degree, accepting of the forces of prigozhin. or maybe they just see that there is a winner coming up the road and we want to be on the winning side. you really can't tell at this point. but the fact that there were not large fights in either tells you a little something about the attitude of the russians in this part of russia. and we do know however that in the vicinity of voronezh, that proved oceans troops may have, lots of dust to subtle yet, but they may have come under fire of helicopters of russia. there is now beginning to be some actual fighting occurring

along this path to moscow. >> you know general, you asked, one question i want to ask, as we look at this ukrainian border with moscow. when the wagner troops pulled out of this area, how important is that to the conflict that is now happening in ukraine, if, any says he has 25,000 troops, been reported up to 50, 000, if he pulls, out it is now moving in this area, the other side of the border, how big of a deal is that? >> well we saw this begin to play out in bakhmut when the wagner forces were carrying that back and then as wagner began to win that battle. there was this, this disagreement, and wagner pulls out, and russian forces took over. and those forces, i believe then became a part of the group that went into rostov-on-don and voronezh, as i said before. i think some were already

prepositioned. the significance of this is that that bakhmut was a prize. mr. prove goshen owns a salt mine in the other part of the world, he knows how amazing that is as a supply of cash. and as you know one of the largest salt mines in all of europe is just south and west of bakhmut. and i think when mr. when mr. prove goshen was denied being able to take that city, and hold that salt mine, that was a major problem in the whole discussion. >> general, one of the potential occurrences as the troops move north is that there on the freeway, through on the highway. and we have had video come in of russian helicopters above the spaces. and as we saw in ukraine, they face the very same problem. troops are traveling down freeways, and highways, they were very exposed. as they make their way north,

is that, is that essential to vladimir putin's defense of them moving further north? and moving quickly? >> it will get worse for mr. prigozhin's forces as they go north. unlike ukraine, where the ukrainian air defenses have made it hard for russia, now there are no such air defenses above mr. prigozhin's forces. rumors, not confirmed, that some russian helicopters have been shot down, if that is the case, they are probably shoulder held, infrared seeking capabilities or others. but mr. prove goshen is not going to have a free walk into moscow. he will come under fire. >> general, roughly, what is the percentage of troops that equal wagner troops. that were fighting in ukraine, with wagner troops now gone, what percentage was lost if you will in terms of the force that

was going against ukraine at this moment? would you guess? >> well it would be a guess, because our understanding of how many russian troops are actually in ukraine is not a very good one. some people have said as low as 150, 000, i have heard more than that. so i don't want to enter into that. and be exactly wrong. but make no doubt about it, 25 to 30,000 fighting troops pulled from the ukrainian area has an impact. and remember wagner's troops are in general, much more experienced then the line russian troops. so this is a capable force that was pulled out of ukraine, and to capable force that is now moving towards moscow. >> we went through the timeline here general. if you were to be watching, in speaking with various leaders in the area, taking on and

putting on your hat, leading in nato, what are you looking at in the next 12 hours? what are the key decision points that will have to be made? what are the occurrences that you will be looking out for? >> well i think that it is very clear that if mr. putin allows this to linger, if he is unable to nip this in the but as we say in america, this is going to get worse and worse for him. for him this is a battle of his control of russia. and he has to be seen as a decisive, and capable leader. if the people, mr. prigozhin is a very gregarious and personable man out there. he reaches the people in the way he does business. he visits the troops when they are hurt. he has done a lot of things that other russian leaders have not done. and what mr. putin cannot do is allow this, this very colorful, powerful leadership style to

begin to prevail. because if he starts to lose his support of the russian people, that is the beginning of a real problem for mr. putin. so, it's a long way of telling you that i think that mr. putin has to come strong and hard against what is going on. if he allows it to foster and we actually see fighting in and around moscow, this is going to be a big problem for the leadership of russia. >> quickly, we have to go. can putin do that? that's what you're saying is veering essential. can't defend himself? >> hard question. can't answer because we don't know the loyalty of all of the troops around him. certainly those right in his center are for him, but we start to see that in these areas, maybe the troops are not standing up the way that you would expect. >> retired -- nato ally commander, thank you so much phil breedlove. we appreciate your time. mark you're sticking around. kelly colby a joining.

we'll be back in 60 seconds. next we have a key question about this conversation, the breaking news, about whether russia even saw this coming. we'll be right back in a few. back in a few tourists tourists that turn into scientists. tourists photographing thousands of miles of remote coral reefs. that can be analyzed by ai in real time. ♪ so researchers can identify which areas are at risk. and help life underwater flourish. ♪ ♪♪ allergies don't have to be scary. (screaming) defeat allergy headaches fast with new flonase headache and allergy relief!

two pills relieve allergy headache pain? and the congestion that causes it! flonase headache and allergy relief. psst! psst! all good! >> the mayor warned citizens to not venture out as a threat from the wagner group is potentially some six hours away. or even closer. meanwhile the pages of major international newspapers tell the story of widespread concern over these developments in russia. joining us now mark thank you so much for being with us. former senior intelligence officer at cia, responsible for overseeing all of in europe and eurasia. now nonresident senior fellow at the atlantic council, nbc national security and

intelligence analyst as well. -- lessons from the cia. mark, it is said to be, at the moment, wagner is marching from rostov-on-don to moscow. we were showing a mob earlier, which we were discussing. how did you see this happening? what do you think is really happening right now in moscow? >> well i think especially with the announcements from moscow authorities essentially martial law will be declared. we don't know where putin is. i think they're very worried. they're scared. i think that is absolutely because, as i stated earlier, they don't know exactly the degree of support that prigozhin has amongst his russian security services. that's going to be everything. that is the foundation of putin support. and it is clear, as prigozhin is marching towards moscow, that he has co-opted security service units. and so i think there's a lot of fear that the regime is unstable. i would say that my own colleagues, in the intelligence

community, they're laser focused on looking at things like what is the loyalty of the russian security lead. they will be looking at everything from human intelligence supports, to signal intelligence reports. the look for military movements around moscow. but make no mistake, this is a threat to putin's regime. this is the most serious threat that he has ever had. and i think we will see a confrontation, if not the next several hours, but the next several, let alone the next several days. that's gonna be between forces loyal to prigozhin and putin. and we shall see how many forces prigozhin has co-opted. >> nbc kelly co-by eight with us. what was the reporting regionally in the area in terms of the relationship here with prince goshen, wagner and how they dealt and worked with vladimir putin in moscow. how was that characterized up to this point? >> well, prove goshen and his wagner forces are a key part of

this war in ukraine. they have been on the frontlines, talking about it for weeks now. fighting really viciously in the bakhmut area and other areas. their key parts of this russian effort, and its invasion of ukraine. interestingly, even as all of this has been playing out over the past 24 hours or so. the war here continues. there were air raid sirens sounding throughout the night, into the morning. there were about 40 missiles, according to ukrainian sent towards ukraine, 20 of them to the capital here in kyiv. ukraine says they shot down most of them. but the big danger now as they've solidified that air defense, especially around kyiv, is missile fragments, and one of those missile fragments, ukrainians say hit an apartment building here. killing three people. it was really one of the more, i suppose, active nights in

terms of air raid sirens, and missiles in quite some time here in ukraine. at the same, time while all of this -- was happening in moscow, what's happening in rostov-on-don, the ukrainian leadership is known for their tweets. sometimes very sarcastic tweets. focused on russia, we've heard some of those over the past few hours. we've also heard from a spokesperson of the commander of the eastern forces in ukraine. he said look the effect of this is already having an impact on russian troops. because a lot of these troops on the frontline, they pay attention to prove goshen. they pay attention to the social media challenge where the wagner group is very active. they listen to his messages. and according to the spokesperson anyway, he said look, they are going to be watching all of this unfold as well. and it will have an impact on

morale. for those soldiers on the frontline. >> mark, as kelly was just saying, this ability to use the social platform that prigozhin is doing right now, how will that be essential as he tries to soft in the ground if you will, bring in more support. which he is trying to do as it moves north at the moment. how key is that, and quite unique if you will in terms of in realtime, him saying this is where we're going, this is what we're trying to do. we don't believe that the moment -- the head of the military there, has been doing a good job. that this has been done with the ideas of the elite. this is not for the people. at least that's what proof goshen is saying. get he's able to communicate, realtime, these ideas, as he is moving forward. how essential is that, and will that sway as we were talking to general breedlove a second ago a lot of the people that are saying out loud their support for putin, but may swing as

wagner moves north? >> richard, i think what you mentioned is essential. remember, prigozhin is an expert on information operations. you know, there is so much about his history that is fascinating. he goes from a hotdog vendor, to putin's caterer, to then the leader of a paramilitary organization. sometimes people forget, he also is, or was absolute -- he headed a massive troll farm that was extremely active back in 2016. he knows information operation very well. he is use those russian military channels to put forth a message that i think resonates with certainly a lot of russians, but particularly the russian national security set, because a russian military has performed so poorly in ukraine. he knows how to do this, he's effective on this. and again, it's part of the process. you know, the way he's going to succeed in this is to convince members that the russian military and security service to side with him. he has a platform to do, it and

he's been very effective in the past. i think he's continuing to do so even today. >> mark, some want to know. did the u.s. intelligence have any idea this was happening potentially? did russia not see this coming out all? because it seems so well organized. was there the awareness that these two leaders, at the end of the day, that they could fracture in a moment's notice? >> well richard, that's a great question. for the u.s. intelligence community, this is a super bowl. i mean a russian coup? i would hope that our intelligence picked up. these are questions congress should ask. you also raised the point of russian intelligence did they know? and internal service has performed spectacularly poorly in this war. i will throw one thing out there though. that the ukrainian intelligence services have been really the star in this. particularly the military intelligence services. you know, there is a washington reports -- where the head of ukrainian

military intelligence made contact with prigozhin. so ukrainians have gone into putin's head on this in a huge way. you mentioned before some of the social media sites. i mean there was a great tweet that ukrainians put out of a ukrainian drone operator with his equipment. he actually filled it up with popcorn essentially saying i'm going to watch russians kill themselves. and so they've been really effective on information operations as well. >> mark is there any possibility that u.s. intelligence back channel this at all? that you just mentioned ukraine and potentially getting to wagner, prigozhin's brain. any potential back channel-ing from our side? quickly. >> i mean, between the u.s. and ukrainians shore. i don't think the u.s. whatever cooperate with prigozhin. he is an absolute war criminal. he has done, a pretty atrocious figure who has committed war crimes globally. if anything, u.s. intelligence would have this up and passed you cranium's. but again, i think that remains to be seen. there's some reports the white house was taken by surprised by

this. i hope that's not true. because essentially there's also the notion of regime stability. and don't forget, russia has a massive nuclear arsenal. our intelligence collection within the ic is going to be absolutely focus on the security of russian nuclear weapons, and the military units protecting them. so a lot of moving parts, super complicated with events moving very quickly. >> mark, thank you so much, former senior intelligence officer at the cia. i certainly appreciate your time. kelly kobe, i know we'll be talking to you over the next hour and a half at least. i appreciate both reporting a discussion right now. white house reaction to the breaking news, speaking of which, all of this is happening overseas. chaos and confrontation after vladimir putin says russia has been stabbed in the back. stabbed in the back all learning to save and spend their money with chase. the chef's cooking up firsts with her new debit card. hungry? -uhuh. the designer's eyeing sequins. uh no plaid. while mom is eyeing his spending. nice. and the engineer? she's taking control with her own account for college.

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news for you here at msnbc, word of the armed rebellion in russia making headlines across the world. we're sharing some of that with you here.

new york times. putin vows divisive actions as wagner chief claims part of key military complex. then there's the associated press. putin calls armed rebellion by mercenary chief a betrayal, in vows to defend russia. taking you over to the atlantic, russia slides into civil war. reuters, russian helicopters battle wagner mercenaries rolling toward moscow. the wall street journal, russia's putin order military to crush wagner power grab, calls it treason. just some of the reaction so far. let's go to nbc's monica alba, at the white house. monika, you have word moments ago about what is happening. >> we got a lot of new information richard about just how the president has been spending the last couple of hours as this situation continues to unfold in russia. i can tell, you the white house is being very careful in its wording here, because they are still monitoring what they are

referring to as a fast developing, fast moving situation there. we do know that the president and the vice president were both briefed this morning here at the white house by their national security team. and a sense of the participants can help read viewers to really what this looks like. every key person in this orbit was involved when you think about the national security adviser, jake sullivan, secretary of state blinken. secretary of defense austin, and then you had others, from the cia, the u.n., involved in this briefing. so every part of the government and administration is continuing to monitor this as i'm told. they have been since late last night. we also know, in a statement from overnight, that the national security council put out say the first step here was going to be for the president to consult allies and partners. now we're just learning in the last couple of minutes here that indeed, over the last couple of hours, the president spoke to three important

leaders here. he spoke with president emmanuel macron of france. he spoke with chancellor olaf scholz of germany, and prime minister rishi sunak of the uk. so those three conversations happen separately. there wasn't much to the readout that the white house put out. instead they just said simply that all three leaders discussed the ongoing situation in russia. and then we understand that the president and vice president are both going to be updated continually throughout the day. what is important here richard, is that the president actually is just about to depart the white house for camp david. that's where he previously was planning to spend tonight, returning to the white house tomorrow. and as you can understand, and manage, and camp david has all of the ability to continue to monitor any kind of global situation like this, and the president often has participated in important calls in briefings from there, he is able to do that, just like he would here at the white house, with very secure capacity to do that, and continue to have maybe, these kinds of

conversations with other world leaders. we do expect him to depart shortly. you will then be arriving at joint base andrews, where he is with a pool and some journalist, a camera if he wanted to make some comments. it's unclear if he will. earlier today the vice president left for charlotte, north carolina, where she is set to give a major address on this one here in adversary of the dobbs decision, overturning roe v. wade. she was also accompanied by journalist, who did put these questions to her about whether she wanted to say anything about the ongoing situation in russia, she declined a couple of times. for now the posture here at the white house is one of watching, and waiting, before saying much more. but some critical diplomatic steps have been taken as we saw over the last couple of hours, these many developments. richard. >> you talk about diplomatic steps in the white house, as you know so well, they have to be very careful about saying too much, or too little during developments like this. especially as the theater now moves east into russia.

>> yeah, that's exactly right. that's why they are being so calculated, and these readouts are so short. typically when the president speaks with any world leader we get a far longer read out. but obviously, given sensitivities of this developing situation, that is why it is been so tourists. >> monika the white house for us. next for you in nbc reporter who has worked in russia for years. what he is seeing and hearing, next. aring, next (vo) with verizon, you can now get a private 5g network. so you can do more than connect your business, you can make it even smarter. now ports can know where every piece of cargo is. and where it's going. (dock worker) right on time. (vo) robots can predict breakdowns and order their own replacement parts. (foreman) nice work. (vo) and retailers can get ahead of the fashion trend of the day with a new line tomorrow. with a verizon private 5g network, you can get more agility and security. giving you more control of your business. we call this enterprise intelligence. from the network america relies on. we know patients are more than their disease.

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from russia, live picture of moscow where officials are tightening security across the city telling people to stay home because of counterterrorism activity there. vladimir putin mobilizing troops, vowing to put down what he calls an armed rebellion happening right now. as mercenary troops, they are rapidly advancing towards moscow it seems after seizing control of a key military base in the south of russia. joining us now is nbc's matt bogner in london. matt, russia has been watching that timeline, this pictures coming out of moscow because of what is happened, what can you tell us about what you're seeing? >> thank you mitch. there is obviously a lot of stuff happening on russian social media right now. we are seeing videos from regions even closer to moscow then the voronezh, that major

cyst city between rostov-on-don and moscow that we understand that they may be in or are currently driving to. we've seen videos from authorities in these regions, essentially small towns on the approaches to moscow, still far away, but on the approach, they are digging up roads to try and set up a makeshift barricade to impede whatever progress they're making, they're wagner mercenaries, on their way to moscow. meanwhile, just before we came on air at the moscow mayor, announced that monday will be a day off in moscow while authorities are expecting to continue what they are calling a counter terror operation. that is the umbrella term they're using to describe the responses they're seeing, those movements in moscow. it gives authorities relative impunity to deal with the situation as they wish. we're seeing preparations for some kind of defense in moscow perhaps the mercenaries have been very clear that that is apparently their goal now. the russian state has made it very clear they view this as

armed insurrection, and it will be dealt with accordingly and their words from putin on down. so we're just kind of seeing a lot of movements, and again, just more videos online suggesting that the wagner group continues to move forward. but it is a very chaotic picture right now another factor to keep an eye on is the chechen leader who is kind of one of these old strawn strongman who've been a key pillar of the regime support for a long time. pledging his, to send his elite fighters to try and unseat the wagner mercenaries from some of those key regional military buildings that they claim to have seized. so a lot of moving parts, and it is really pointing towards some kind of showdown perhaps on the road to moscow, perhaps in moscow. and we're just keeping a close eye on the situation. as you mentioned, is moving very quickly. >> matt thank you for that. again that developing that you are just talking about, the mayor of moscow saying monday, it will be declared a day of

non working. this is because according to the mayor, concerns about the counter terrorism operations that are happening, or expected to happen in the next 24, 48 hours. that's why we're watching these live pictures on the left-hand side in moscow. that timeline, now seven, the sun has not set there. thank you so much matt wagner. next for you, the world leader, who has put an ear on advice he just gave the russian president. ssia president. k. so caramel swirl is always there for the taking. frustrated by skin tags? dr. scholl's has the breakthrough you've been waiting for. the first fda-cleared at-home skin tag remover clinically proven to remove skin tags safely in as little as one treatment. bug spray works best...

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affairs correspondent, and host of andrea mitchell reports. right here on msnbc. andrea let's start with you on this. why with the president of turkey at the moment feel that it is important to stress to putin the importance of acting with common sense? >> first of all, erdogan has a unique ability -- with putin. turkey is a nato member, but has relied, they have purchased f4 fighter jets from moscow to be -- it has refused to go along with sanctions against russia, so erdogan is a strongman of similar strongman, in someone that putin would respect, and a key ally. for him to stress common sense, and to say, try to resolve this without a crackdown, this isn't mutiny, this is the most serious threat to vladimir putin's reign. i watched his speech overnight, live and i was just

thunderstruck by seeing vladimir putin. he is never even acknowledge dissent within his country calling this action by prove goshen treason saying it's a stab in the back, and calling for action against prigozhin, who has been such an important military force, projecting strength not only against ukraine, but for russia around the world. he has been the tip of the spear for russia's foreign policy he's in africa in country after country. so for this to have happened in's is such a direct threat to putin, and putin's leadership. it's something we have never contemplated seeing. for him to have addressed the nation is just amazing. i think one of the things that prigozhin did that really broke all future ties is to say that the predicate justification for the ukrainian war was a fraud, and undermined that is you know, a direct challenge to the

leadership of vladimir putin. >> andrea part of the commentary that is been going back and forth between vladimir putin and prigozhin, they haven't necessarily come to elect directly at each other in name in extreme ways. they have not done that as of yet. what does this say about vladimir putin's leadership today, and where it might go. might he lose another, if you will oligarchy that is so important in the support of his leadership in russia? >> i think this relationship is irreparably broken. there's no way putin could ever forgive prove goshen, by calling him a traitor treason, a step in the back, the language he used was so forceful. there is no question this is not something that could be patched up. not naming him is simply to avoid elevating him, and spreading any kind of support for him among russians who are not entirely aware --

the effect upon their population the casualties, there are ways that things get through even to a country that so dominated by putin, and so isolated. this is rife for all out revolt. i think another thing that nato certainly, and erdogan have to be concerned about, certainly the u.s., with the conversation that -- secretary of state blinken had with the g7 allies is the security of the strategic bases, that are located around russia. we're talking about a nuclear arms state. facing the possibility of civil war. and that is not something to be taken lightly. >> you know peter, you worked in moscow for many years, you served as a bureau chief there you've written books about the kremlin, as you look at the

developments today we're talking about vladimir putin and prigozhin, and potentially a shift in his influence in leadership. how essential might that shifty to where what we'll see next happened in russia. because it is certainly a crack with prove goshen. >> absolutely. this is exactly what vladimir putin did not want to happen. you're right my wife, susan closs and i were on the ground in rush of the day that putin was first elected in 2000. he started his leadership with two main goals, the first was to re-consolidate power inside the country, in the kremlin. the second was to begin to assert power again on the international stage, especially what they call, the new year in broad, the former soviet states like ukraine. now this last 16 months has been an absolute collapse, calling in these last 24 hours of those two goals. he now no longer has exclusive control of the use of force on his own territory, and the war in ukraine has been disaster. i mean it just gets worse. ukrainians could take advantage

of this moment of disarray in russia. this is everything that vladimir putin has feared basically for two decades, all coming to a head at this moment. >> when you saw him speak earlier today peter, what did you see in his strength and his solidity of his purpose of message? do you see any on surety in his message when reaching out after five goshen had reached the south, taking over that key military base? >> i think you are right to point out that he does not admit dissent within the country easily. this is, for him to acknowledge, and acknowledge this is happening, not only to acknowledge it, but to create a national, you know, address to the country about, it does indicate weakness frankly that he isn't. that doesn't mean prove goshen will succeed at this, russian power, it is a remarkable admission that he does not have complete control here. and he is in fact struggling to re-assert himself on scene, that prigozhin has momentum at the moment. putin is trying to reverse that. >> andrea, secretary of state

antony blinken saying he spoke to g7 in eu officials. we also heard the readout from the white house that conversations have happened with the president of the united states. president biden, and several other leaders. what would be the biggest concern right now if you are the secretary of state, if you are a president, if you are president biden? andrea, you're there? sorry. >> yes i'm sorry. i think the biggest concern for president biden it has to be the nuclear threat. it has to be the control of the weapons. and whether this is going to be an all out civil war. as well as what putin might do with his control of the tactical weapons. he would not use tactical weapons against his own people. but might he do something diversionary with ukraine? don't forget, none of us can forget of course there is a war going on. this is obviously to ukraine's

advantage with the counter offense that starting, and going slowly with huge casualties on both sides. this division among the russian military, the russian military and the -- wagner voices who have been cannon fire. people -- throughout russia. these are not really draftees. you know, there were lots of problems within the russian military, all coming to surface. it's been brewing, the u.s. intelligence has been tracking very closely. i don't think anyone anticipated this kind of all outbreak, and what peter nigh are describing as the extraordinary ignition by putin in an address to the nation, of the dissent, and the fact that he does not have full control. i think that the unpredictability of what putin may do now with this context tested taken into very serious consideration. meetings, conferences.

a few things for the president and vice president today. the president, at this, hour he has so far postponed a plan to camp david for the weekend. but he is still in the white house as far as i know. and he was being advised by the joint chiefs chairman milley. obviously by -- the head of the national intelligence all the intelligence agencies. bill burns the cia director, who has the advantage of having been in moscow, no input in more than any other american official, or any other american, really. and having been involved in government secretary [inaudible] and now, the cia has had the last meeting of any american officially, a year ago last november. you know before the war broke out. a year and a half ago or more.

with the warning of not to invade ukraine. with very good knowledge of what -- jake sullivan of course, national security adviser they've all been advising the president. you have a president who has a lot of foreign policy experience in dealing with russia, and dealing with putin. but this is something that i don't think anyone could've predicted, even if they saw prigozhin challenging the kremlin. challenging his military counterparts. the defense minister, this kind of control, and now gaining control, and reportedly two cities in the south. on the road to moscow. it's obviously critical. >> andrea mitchell, nbc news, chief washington correspondent, chief affairs -- right here on msnbc, thank you as always for your guidance. and analysis, -- we are going to see you a little bit later in this show. thank you both for that. my next guest is a former cia officer who ran operations in

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and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? >> we are staying on the what, we have a ton of mulch. breaking news of the rebelling in russia in new video of the coverage you see here. it is saying that it shows chechen fighters arriving to help push back wagner group forces. mercenaries, these wagner group mercenaries who are marching more than 250 miles north towards moscow for various support. joining us now john, former cia officer who worked with the cia kind of nine in 20 years ran operations in russia and now is a nonresident senior fellow at the atlantic council. and the cofounder of -- john, he served, as we were saying in moscow during the 90s

and deputy head of the cia worldwide russia program earlier 2000. the 90s, that is probably the last time that we saw something so extreme in russia, what do you make of this in context of that? >> well, amara being on the street in 1993 as tanks and armored personnel carriers came up the boulevard to the kremlin to attack the parliament, the white house in moscow. you need to remember, vladimir putin was around for the events of 1991 and 1993. he is seen these kinds of insurrections before. he has created a narrative based on those insurrections, if they ever happen again he would use the brutality of the state to crack down and squash anything like that. in fact, that is his whole reason for being in power. he is powerful, he is in control, he will allow no traders or anyone to cause any problems.

this is going to be a real challenge to him, he has been through it, he told everyone how he's going to react but we haven't seen that yet. >> is there any way the u.s. will soon be surprised by this, they have an inkling on what we are seeing today, could they have shared any intelligence with wagner through some kind of back channel potentially? even if it might have been purely intelligence related? >> that's unlikely, i think we are in touch with ukrainians and others who have those kinds of contacts. we have been watching vladimir putin for 20 years, we understand how he operates. he operates in the sort of weird divided rule way of doing things, inside the country he has this chaos which allows him to be the arbiter between groups and deflect blame away from himself. he defines everyone as patriots are traders. in this case, prigozhin was always a patriot. he supported him. as we saw on january 6th, the people who self described as pages can often be the worst traders in the long run. >> if putin was caught off guard, why?

>> well it's a good point. when you are a dictator for 20 years, we saw this when he went into ukraine, obviously he was not well briefed. people aren't going to come to him and give him information that they know he doesn't want to hear. the strongman, everyone relies on them for their wealth and their power. and so they tell them what they want to hear. so goshen, he thought he could control him and use prigozhin to maybe put pressure on one of these kinds of guys. it is gotten out of hand. now he has a crack down. i suspect like assad or syria, he will be successful cracking down in the short term. but this has created humiliation for a dictator who lot relies on power and control, this kind of humiliation is the beginning of really showing weakness. we guess can lead to losing power in the long run. >> did you say that vladimir putin may have been using wagner to pressure his very own head of the military? >>