six or eight months was prigozhin building up his following. on telegram, on social media, playing to the hearts and minds. he was building that up to gain power to do something. also, he was the person that broke the news that there is a deal on this social platform. the news and specials team on the wall street journal just finished. you can see on your screen right now, a documentary on the wagner group. thank you so much for being here. the breaking news, evidently there is a deal between wagner and vladimir putin, that is the breaking news. we will have more on this all afternoon here on msnbc. that does it for me on this edition of alex witt reports. i'm in for alex. today i will see you tomorrow at one pm eastern. yasmin vossoughian takes up this breaking news coverage. >> hey everybody, good

afternoon, i'm yasmin vossoughian, on a very busy saturday afternoon. coming on the air today following an ongoing military conflict inside russia. we are now learning moments ago, you give guinea prigozhin, the leader of the wagner mercenary group is standing down. , this after escalation late yesterday as the group started making its way towards moscow, threatening vladimir putin's grip on power. the wagner group, until recently, was fighting alongside russian forces in ukraine, but yesterday accusing the kremlin of killing thousands of its soldiers based on quote unquote, false pretenses, prigozhin and his troops have taken control of the city home to the russian military headquarters for the ukraine war, we are unsure where the control stands now. in a televised address this morning, vladimir putin accused the wagner mercenaries of quote

unquote treason, and vowing to punish anyone involved in a, quote, armed rebellion. we >> this is a criminal adventurous to campaign. , it is equivalent to armed mutiny. russia will defend itself, >> the president and vice president have been briefed by their national security teams and will continue to be briefed throughout the. day we have all the angles covered for you in the next two hours ahead, you're gonna want to stick with me through. that we want to go now to nbc news foreign correspondent, ross, inches on the ground in ukrainian capital, of kyiv. ross, let me start with this. i know you reported inside moscow as well. the developments on this, they are stunning. what do you make of what we are hearing now that yevgeny has now said he is standing down for now. >> yasmin, this is the latest

extraordinary turn in what has been an almost unbelievable 24 hours, inside russia, here inside ukraine, if denny prigozhin in a crack levoy's note, which is how he has been updating the world on the progress of what he calls the march to justice, what the kremlin calls a military coup, has said that to avoid bloodshed, he is turning his forces around, he says he is calling wagner mercenaries within 120 miles of the gates of moscow. he says now to avoid the spectacle of russian forces opening fire on each other, in front of the capital city, he is pausing his advance. he says he is returning his mercenaries to base, yasmin, we do not know what the terms of the deal that prigozhin appears to have reached with the kremlin are. we do know that the president of belarus, lukashenko, a close ally of putin, is saying he is

working the phones all day, acting as a mediator between the two sides. and he is the one who brokered this agreement that appears to have stopped this rebellion. yasmin, we should be clear about what we don't know at this point. we cannot say, as nbc news, for sure that this column of vehicles which had been advancing north of the m4 motorway highway from we rostov-on-don has stopped. we don't know if it is actually turnaround. but if this is the case, they will be breathing a sigh of relief in the kremlin, that the situation appears to have paused, up the east for the moment, without major bloodshed at the gates of moscow. >> that's incredibly important what you just said. they have paused, at least for the moment, it seems as if the situation is constantly changing and is very precarious. talk to me about the involvement of the belarusian president, lukashenko, why he was serving as the go-between with vladimir putin and

prigozhin. >> he's played an interesting war throughout the war. they launched their invasion towards keys from pillory shin territory. he was well positioned here, everyone inside of the russian system basically felt they had to pick a side between either prigozhin or vladimir putin, and it may be that it took an outsider someone outside of the russian political system who was able to speak to both sides and go back and forth between the two. yasmin, it is hard to see, given the red lines that have been crossed over the last 24 hours, it's hard to see how the wagner mercenary group and russia's military leadership pretends that this didn't happen, that they go back to playing nice, the president of russia, vladimir putin, was on television this morning calling what prigozhin was doing a betrayal, he was calling it a stab in the back, of the russian military, and the russian people, and it's very

very difficult to understand what kind of terms could lead to a deal here. >> and it's hard to believe, picking up on what you just said, raf, that prigozhin feels as if his life is safe. considering all that he has done in the last 24 hours. and how vladimir putin carries it out, when in fact there is someone who he sees as treasonous inside of moscow. just historically? >> absolutely, right people who crossed vladimir putin often don't live to tell the tale. prigozhin, at this exact moment, has a lot of leverage. his troops still appear to be in control of that key southern city of rostov-on-don, it's a city near the ukrainian border. it is where russia has been planning its operations here inside ukraine, so prigozhin, at this exact moment, appears to still have cards to play. remember, he has been relatively careful over the course of this to aim his

criticism at russia's military leadership, the defense minister, the senior generals, he has avoided, for the most, part criticizing vladimir putin himself. he said early yesterday, putin was being deceived by the generals. alongside the russian people. so it may be that there is some way back between prigozhin and the russian president, but it's very very hard to see how. >> yes, very hard to see that road, raf sanchez for. us i want to bring in jen psaki who is on the phone with us from the white house press secretary, now the host of inside, with jen psaki, here on at msnbc.com. , and thanks for joining us. some quite stunning developments in the last 24 hours or, so now the most recent, it seems, prigozhin saying that he is standing down. right, this brokered deal by the belarusian president, lukashenko, between him and prigozhin, what do you make of it considering what you know about the wagner mercenary group, and also how the russian president himself operates, i

was just talking about this with raf, when he sees someone like prigozhin, now, as treasonous? >> well, there's a lot to unpack. there i think as he said many times, over the last few minutes, there's a lot we don't, know which is important for people to remember. we don't know what the terms of this quote unquote deal are. we don't know if this, in prigozhin's, mind is act, one where he has other plans. there are a number of things here, which has stuck out to, me which don't quite make sense. prigozhin has been a critic of how the war has been fought, the tactics, the lack of military resources and assets to his trained mercenaries that he has been fighting alongside the russian military for the past year plus. he has been critical of that for several months, telegram, a range of. -- with new, in terms of last, night questioning the strategy

for fighting the war. it'll so the notion that he would be going back to ukraine to fight the same war, doesn't quite make sense. the second thing to remember about prigozhin is that he is not just a leader of -- over the last ten years of mercenary, fighting around the, world not just in ukraine but in a range of parts of africa, central african republic. with a range of different places. syria as well, libya, he's also somebody who has run troll farms. he is a master of disinformation, he was involved in 2016 and running troll farm that intervene in our own election. so this is why this is one of the many reasons this is so tricky. obviously putin is a propaganda master. but so is prigozhin. so it's hard to know and understand exactly who is pushing disinformation, and who is stating accurately what is happening. >> so let's dig into, that if we, can a little. bit jen, as we've been following these developments over the last 24, hours we know

there has been a blackout of media inside moscow, inside russia in general since this war on ukraine began. it is hard since the very beginning to figure out what is actually going on inside russia. so as we've had these fast moving developments, it's become more difficult, hence the reason why you and i are saying, well, we're hearing this development. we still don't really know what the reality is. how are you sifting through, this and what are your expectations of how the administration, your former boss is making sense of what's. happening considering a lack of intelligence we have on the ground right now in russia. >> in russia, so we do have a lot of intelligence, the u.s. government has intelligence on the ground in eastern europe and has a range of different sources and assets, so if you're sitting in the white house right now and you're in the oval office with the president or the situation room what is likely happening,

they're working the phones. sources they, know we've seen this morning that the president has made calls to different -- he's making calls to european leaders, we saw secretary blinken speak with his counterpart, so they are going to remain in constant contact with ukrainians, with european partners, with others to essentially information sharon see if they can assess what is happening on the ground. i also suspect, publicly, they are going to be extremely quiet. because this is ever-changing. we are watching this take place right now, and if vladimir putin doesn't know what the final outcome is going to be, despite what the kremlin says, the white house certainly doesn't, so they are likely going to hold their words close. keep them limited, ra'eese out some calls. they don't want to be perceived as intervening there as much as

they are very much defenders, the president of the united states or of course of the ukrainians efforts to push russia out of their country. they don't want to be perceived as having a handed anything happening. inside inside the borders of russia. >> the leader of the wagner mercenary group is not a trusted guy. vladimir putin is not historically a trusted guy either, how do they broker a deal like this and go back to things as normal? or is this just the beginning of what is to come? >> at this, point given that this is very much still developing, we don't know if that is what will happen. we don't know what prigozhin's plans are, certainly if he's going back to ukraine, as he says, he has been -- several month critic of the strategy here, yes, as rough said, more focused on the defense, the defense strategy, being run by the people who are working on behalf of, putin but

he's a critic of, that he's also somebody who historically has been power hungry, money hungry, he was a convicted convict, and then he basically became a russian oligarchy, because he made a bunch of money from contracts for the russian military, and he is known as the. chef this is not a guy who was a history of being a trustworthy actor. it's hard to know exactly what his next steps or plans are, and on the putin kremlin front, certainly hard to know what their plans are either. so it's just this space we will have to watch. we are, at msnbc, and you over watching closely what both sides are doing. it's hard to make an accurate prediction at this point. >> it's amazing to think about prigozhin's ascent as you talked about, at one, point in his life, selling hot dogs to

leading a mercenary group like the wagner group leading a revolt on moscow. again we will watch the developments over the last next 24 to 48 hours. >> jen psaki, good to talk, to you jen psaki sundays at noon, original episodes thursdays. exclusively on peacock as well. i want to go now to nbc's -- who's been standing by for us in london, you listen to that voice note from prigozhin, confirming his troops were, in fact, standing down. what did you hear, matt? >> thank you, yasmin. we heard a lot from prigozhin in the last 24, hours he's been releasing these periodic and sometimes frequent ranch, these audio messages screaming about the situation, the ministry defense tried to attack, yes this needs to stop, we're going to moscow. i want to speak to defense minister. that tone was still there in

this latest audio message. prigozhin speaks in a very intense and sharp manner, and it has a lot of, bravado that was still present, but conciliatory, of course he, was announcing that he was standing down. we have heard some additional details on this process, from the belarusian state media, claiming that belarusian president, lukashenko is who a very staunch ally of putin's, somehow negotiated the steel was involved in the process and so he claims, was speaking to prigozhin all day, with the blessing of putin. we know the two of them -- that being lukashenko and putin, spoke this morning, some timelines match, so we definitely -- organist where this, goes i think a lot of great points have been made here so far about the trustworthiness about prigozhin, putin as. well lukashenko, you can add to that. list so we're just going to see who moves back, what kind of reconciliation is made.

in a lot of, ways permanent damage has been done in the past 24 hours to vladimir putin's image at home, and to his regime, so i think there are still very big questions that remain unresolved here, about what happened, why this happened, what happens, next they might try to play it off as if it was just a big, stunt or a misunderstanding. but i think that's gonna be very difficult because the way in which this was done did not seem, rehearsed did not seem planned at all, the russian government seem to really be on the back foot over the past 24 hours. trying to understand how to answer this. so if you are the kremlin trying to come up with some scheme to boost support for the war, perhaps, i don't think this would be it. one thing that -- if i were in their position, i'd be concerned that everything precocious has done instead over the last 24 hours in flames nationalist tensions within russia. there's a large camp, they may not be a majority, but they're certainly quite vocal, in

russia, in the russian media space, they're very critical of the way the defense ministry has wage this war, there's a lot of sentiment in moscow and other places in russia that russia has lost this war. they don't understand why. so they blame the, government they blame corruption, rolls there is a message that prigozhin was screaming quite loudly but i think resonates strongly with a vocal and potentially dangerous portion of the russian electorate, i just can't see a reason that the kremlin would want to stoke. that so i don't think the core issues here have been resolved. and we're just gonna have to see, did those troops go back to rostov later tonight tomorrow? and do the troops that rostov moved back to their positions. their field camps in ukraine. >> the understanding was that prigozhin, the wagner group as, well had taken over control of rostov-on-don. at this, point what is the status of that? do we have any understanding of? that was that part of the deal

between himself and lukashenko, as he said he would stand down,? we >> that remains unclear. at least, i have not seen them specifically address the situation. they might not know. the russian government never actually fully acknowledged that wagner and prigozhin had taken control of parts of rostov. they said there was a situation, but that all relevant state forces were a raid to deal with the situation, but they never directly addressed. it they weren't pretending it wasn't, happening but they were sort of talking around it, for example, we have not really heard putin directly address prigozhin or wagner while he was condemning these moves. today it was left to lower officials. so that is unclear. we will have to see how it goes over the next 24. ours >> last thing for, you matt, and it's about specifically shoigu and

gerasimov. those were the names that were called out and i'm wondering, initially, upon the invasion of russia by the wagner mercenary group, did we hear anything about what their future is in this negotiation? >> it's a great question, their names have been absent from the discourse. over the past 24, hours other than prigozhin's audio messages. there's been no indication from the kremlin that they even were considering beating these demands, i think the way this was quickly condemned has an active insurrection, it shows that it was never gonna work, everything we know about vladimir putin suggests that this was never gonna. work >> with defense minister of russia, with -- chief of arms forces. thank you, we're gonna continue following the latest developments out of russia throughout the hour ahead, coming up in just 60 seconds, i want to talk with russian born

author who has written extensively on the rise of putin about what this revolt could mean for the russian president's future. we'll be right back. we'll be right back. li pepper, it's not too late for another treatment option. to learn more visit treatted.com. that's treatt-e-d.com. - this is our premium platinum coverage map and this is consumer cellular's map. - i don't see the difference, do you? - well, that one's purple. - [announcer] get the exact same coverage as the nation's leading carrier. starting at $20. consumer cellular. one prilosec otc each morning blocks heartburn all day and all night. prilosec otc reduces excess acid for 24 hours,

blocking heartburn before it starts. one pill a day. 24 hours. zero heartburn. welcome back, breaking news minutes ago. the wagner group is standing down and its march towards moscow. with me right now is staff writer for the new yorker, also the author of surviving autocrat. wrote a biography on vladimir putin as well. surviving autocracy, excuse me. thank you for joining us on. this we appreciate. it give me your reaction, first and foremost, the latest developments that we're hearing right now, prigozhin, it seems, standing down after a negotiation with belarusian president, lukashenko. >> we don't know what it means, as the previous speakers have said. i think there are two entirely contradictory things right now. on one hand, there is some sort

of deal, whether that means he has to give prigozhin somewhat of what he, wants which is probably more autonomy, more backup, less dependence on the ministry of defense, which is who has been struggling with for the last couple of weeks. and on the other hand, they have to prevent this from happening again. so he needs to crack down on the people who supported prigozhin, on prigozhin himself and people who have encountered prigozhin's forces in places that they have made it two in the last 24 hours. for, example, a large city in southern russia, the seat of the southern military command in russia, where, as they're packing up to leave, according to the reporter's, people are applauding and saying thank you. so how putin is going to balance these to completely contradictory insurgencies. on the one, hand gift prigozhin

enough to have him, standout on the other hand, crack down on prigozhin and his supporters to prevent this from happening again. it's anybody's guess. we're actually going to see a slow down version of this crisis, for some time to come. >> okay, so what position does this put the russian president in right now? we >> a very very difficult position. this is the most vulnerable his probably ever been. his monopoly on force has been challenged. his monopoly on information space has been challenged. he needs to reestablish those monopolies. that requires a crackdown of unprecedented proportions. we don't actually know if he has the ability to carry that out. my guess is he probably does, but i can't be certain. >> how does he continue this

war in ukraine when prigozhin publicly called out the russian president and the claims he made as to why they initially invaded ukraine? how does he maintain that and his popularity domestically or support for the war in ukraine? if he had it at all? we are relying on unreliable information coming out of russia right now. >> that, i, think is less of a problem then it might. seem we are not talking about a pluralistic, country a country in which people have a choice of positions to take. the specter of that choice just appeared in the last 24 hours with prigozhin's statements. but totalitarian propaganda acts by making people believe that nothing is knowable, everything is fluid, everything is dynamic, so that actually can be subsumed into that flow of propaganda, especially if putin cracks down on information, which maybe,

happening there are reports of telegram, which is the main channel of the opposition and the main channel of communication, the main, media for both the opposition and the kremlin are using telegram, it's notoriously difficult to shut. off it requires shutting off the entire russian internet from the rest of the. world it's not an impossible proposition. so that would happen, reports that the telegram is having -- connection problems. >> is this showing that there is a crack in the ceiling when it comes to vladimir putin's leadership? if you're thinking about navalny, for instance, does he see this as a possibility of a way in that they've never seen before in the last two plus decades of putin's regime? >> yes. this is as close to a crack as we have seen in the 23 years of

putin in power in russia. at the same time, navalny is facing up to 30 years in prison under the current charges that have been brought against. him and prigozhin is no fan, it's not like he's going for power in russia. -- >> what did you expect when you saw this all unfolding, prigozhin's objective was? >> i don't think prigozhin ever articulated an objective of seizing power in russia. prigozhin once what he wants, which is unbridled military power, and he's frustrated. this is a tantrum thrown by a mercenary leader, we -- there's no strategic objective. but the effect of what he has

done is a challenge to putin's monopoly on power. >> astounding, as always, it is great to talk to you. thank you for joining. us a lot more ahead, on the rocking russia, including the implications on ukraine as there in the middle of an offensive against the kremlin. i'm an asked research director of the european export association and, ukraine maria of diva, about that coming up. how the president will is responding. live report from the white house coming up next. ve report from the white house coming up next house coming up next ple. unlike other sprays that stick around, zevo goes from kill to clean in just seconds, plus it's safe for use around people and pets. zevo. people-friendly. bug-deadly. more shopping? you should watch your spending honey. i'm saving with liberty mutual, mom. they customize your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. check it out, you could save $700 dollars just by switching. ooooh, i'll look into that. let me put a reminder on my phone.

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vice president harris are watching the ongoing situation out of russia very closely today. as the white house was saying, they held a briefing this morning with the top members of the national security team. the president also speaking with our allies by phone. we want to get to nbc, is monica alba, standing by at the white house. monika, bring us up today.

what are we learning? what is the biden administration watching right now? >> they are watching this very closely, yasmin. all of the different pieces of the administration and the government really come together here to coordinate, to assess these fast moving developments. even though we are not hearing from president biden on camera, i think his actions and what he was doing this morning at the white house sends a clear message of where the white house is on all of this. that is that even starting last night when much of this was beginning to unfold, the white house was going to be consulting allies and partners to discuss the situation in russia while they continue to gather intelligence about what was going on overnight and into today. the president, the vice president both traveling today. they had journalists with them who tried to shout questions to see if either one of them wanted to speak to this. neither did. but they were both briefed earlier at the white house, and

everybody from the secretary of state, the secretary of defense, the cia director, the national security adviser, all of them were involved in this conversation. then we also know the president had a call this morning with the leaders of germany, france in the uk. they talked about the ongoing situation in russia and where all leaders reaffirm their support for ukraine. we've learned separately from that, yasmin, the national security adviser, jake sullivan, was supposed to travel to copenhagen yesterday to take place in some international talks about the war in ukraine in denmark. he canceled the trip in light of the situation. so he stayed to continue to brief the president. he was with him this morning. he traveled with the president to camp david, which is where they both will be for the remainder of today. we don't expect the president to have any kind of on camera comments or public events while he's at camp david. he will return to the white

house tomorrow. you are clearly seeing here a white house that is talking to key players and stakeholders. but waiting to comment further until a lot more information can be learned about how all of this happened and what could happen next. >> we don't know what may be to come. it seems, right now, while this news is coming out that in fact the wagner group has turned around. this doesn't mean that it is the. and it's not just geopolitical implications here, monica, we have a huge u.s. embassy inside moscow which i've been to. i lived in moscow for quite some time, reported from there as well. it is a fortified. area but we have major u.s. personnel on the ground. if in fact this were to reescalate, rather plans in place for what to do than when it comes to u.s. personnel? >> i can tell, you, yasmin the public posture of not saying much should not mean that there isn't a ton happening behind the scenes to assess and

address the question that you pose. even though you are seeing not much come out in terms of statements or trying to provide any geopolitical analysis, behind, scenes all of these major players are having conversations. also with their counterparts in key countries and key places regionally to speak to those kinds of questions. should there be a lot more unrest or, to your point, if this goes into a different direction, depending on what agreements may have taken place now. >> monika, thank you. we want to bring in ali rousey, who's standing by for us in london who is covering the story. we just want to say, by the, way countries like iran are watching. this china as well, north korea watching every move vladimir putin is making. considering the news that we have been hearing at this moment, that prigozhin has in fact said he is standing down and returning to where he came

from. what are you hearing on the ground about developments along with countries like germany, countries like the uk, and their response to what's happening in russia? we >> yasmin, it really is an extraordinary set of events unfolding in russia from last night to this morning. we are hearing what you've been reporting up until now, that lukashenko has brokered some kind of deal to get prigozhin's troops to scale back. they've made a huge advance towards moscow, about 200 miles. now they're heading back. and we don't know any of it for certain, we don't have any firsthand information. a lot of it is coming off of telegram channels, which a lot of it is reported. on some deal has been made for prigozhin to back off. we are hearing there has been some security guarantees given to the mercenaries of the wagner group. you have to think, something

much bigger has to have been offered for him to suddenly turn around and say, you, no change of plans. we're not going to march towards moscow. he did not get any of the demands that he has been asking for. he asked for the head of the armed forces, the head of the defense minister to come and visit him. they did not come. they're some lower levels officials turned up, but not the demands that he had been making. you can't help but feel, is this game over for prigozhin? because he didn't get any of his demands? he's backed down from russia. and now he has to face putin who is going to be really angry. if you look at this in terms of prigozhin being an attack dog for putin, to -- sensitive areas and do the fighting that most of the other troops don't like to do. if that attack dog turns on you,

you can't trust. them that's going to change all the dynamics of the game for you. it's a tricky situation because on the other hand, he's relied so heavily on the wagner group to do a lot of their dirty work for them. not just in ukraine but across the world. a lot of advances the russians have made and ukraine have been because of the wagner group. this is a tricky situation for the leadership of the kremlin. if everything goes awry with the wagner group, they will lose 25,000 troops on the frontline that have been doing a lot of the really hard dirty work for the kremlin for them. obviously the situation, the relationship with them, it's also going to be untenable for putin. it's also exposing shrinks in the armor for vladimir putin. this is the biggest challenge he's ever faced since he's been president. and the key question now is, over the next 24, 48 hours, do

the security forces stay loyal to him? does the military stay loyal? they seem to have it playing to his favor. the other thing we were expecting was, the wagner group probably saw a groundswell of support from the russian people. that has not happened. so for now, putin seems to have the advantage but there's still a lot to happen in the coming days and hours. >> there certainly is. as always, my, friend thank you. after the break, everybody, moscow is mobilizing troops. officials are warning residents to not travel right now. so what threat might there be four american embassy personnel? i just spoke to mark about. it i will ask -- a former senior intelligence officer oversaw operations in europe and eurasia about that and much much more. coming, up we will be back in just a minute. just a minute. for years, i thought my t.e.d. was beyond help... but then i asked my doctor about tepezza.

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national security analyst. mark, you and i have been speaking throughout the day off line because i've been following this thing fairly closely as you have as well, give me your first gut reaction to this quote unquote deal. i don't even want to call it that because we don't really know what it's going to take place in the next few hours or so. prigozhin seems to have struck with lukashenko? >>, listen so much remains unknown about this. i don't even think we know what prigozhin's initial objectives were. but if you think about, it the notion that somehow there could be any reconciliation between putin and prigozhin, that is preposterous. putin sees the world and russians as either a traitor or a patriot. prigozhin is in the category of trader. ultimately what this tells me is there is still dysfunction within the russian security state. and again, i can't see how

prigozhin is ever going to be welcomed back, in any fashion, there's just an element of trust that's not there. we're gonna have to find out what the deal really. means and look, a lot of it, everyone is scratching their. heads you and i will talk about something different, so here we are now, with -- >> you are exactly, right that's what i keep, thinking how does prigozhin understanding how vladimir putin works, as a quote unquote friend of vladimir putin, as he is where he is because of latimer protein. how does he go back to feeling safe doing what he has done of the last 24 hours. sure he didn't invoke his actual name, but he essentially called him a liar. he said to him that russia was in ukraine for different reasons than the president told his people. >> you are right, putin declared that prigozhin was a trader and needed to be arrested. there was no such thing as all is forgiven. so there is some question on

what prigozhin is really going to do right. now the statements said they might go back to their bases. where, is he gonna go back to fighting in ukraine? the same war that he denounced so vehemently, it certainly seems like his beef was with the conduct of the war and the senior officials in the russian ministry of defense. as putin sacrificed them, but again, all of this is really murky and unclear. you sit back and you say, look this is a country that is certainly, in some chaos, there is paralysis the national security, state and ultimately, it goes to a kind of other subject. this benefits ukraine who really should be pushing the gas pedal on their counteroffensive right now. seeing what's going on with the russian military. >> i want to get into that in just a, second but you brought up a couple good things, gerasimov, shoigu, those are the two individuals that are being called out by prigozhin, do you think, any kind of said this, there's a possibility within this deal that putin

sacrifices those individuals for prigozhin to back down. >> yasmin, this is pure speculation, but if this is what prigozhin asked for, and this of course could, in some, sense benefit because he could say, look i'm finding -- i'm clamping down on those responsible for the mess that has occurred in ukraine. so you could go down that road and see that thinking. but ultimately, i don't see how there's any reconciliation between prigozhin and putin. prigozhin has deeply humid millete putin. this is not a victory for him, whatever has occurred that has caused this pause, i think putin is really looking weak in front of the russian people. he is not gonna forget. this >> to mark things, for your coming back in the next hour as. well but you brought up a good point about ukraine, we need to dig into that just a little. bit 50,000 or so, maybe a little less mercenary troops,

wagner mercenary troops distracted by this last 24 hours or, so how does ukraine, how do they capitalize on this moment, and this weakness the russian president has now shown. these cracks. >> so the russian military was fighting in ukraine, you just have to look back home to see dysfunction. there is going to be questions about which units are loyal to prigozhin or to putin. if i was advising the ukrainian military. i would say put the gas on. if i was in the national security council i would send an attack on these long range missiles. this is the time for ukraine to win to their offensive against the russian military. morale is an important factor in, war and there is no way real when morale is enhanced in russia by the events of the last 24. hours >> where the human intelligence when it comes to moscow, to russia specifically? considering the fact we've been inside this war for the last

two years? how reliant right now is the white house? do they have access to that human intelligence to understand the inner workings of putin at the moment? >> look, a collection on russia 's hard because they have a capable security service. we're gonna get our intelligence from spies, human sources on the ground, also from signals and intelligence intercepting communications, imagery, satellites, let me make one points, not necessarily on human, but signal intelligence. this is the national security heyday. i'm sure, within russian military communications, who's been an explosion and chatter. i think the intelligence is out there, it's just a question of putting together what it means. who's gonna come out on top, and really, ultimately, it will be assessing the reliability of select russian military units who are probably looking at both sides to try to figure out what to do. >> mark, i have many more questions for you, you're gonna join me in the next hour. thank you for that.

by the, way i know it's your birthday. so thank you for spending some time with us and happy birthday. still ahead, the ukraine defense ministry has a new recommendation for russian soldiers in the country right now. go home. i'm gonna talk to security expert who has been covering the war since day one, next, about the likelihood that russian troops will take that advice. what it means for ukraine's offensive. much more on that conversation coming up with. coming up with. we we really don't want people to think of feeding food like ours is spoiling their dogs.

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follow any news out of russia, i want to bring in maria avdeeva, a security expert from the sick -- from security and cooperation in europe. maria, thank you for joining us on this. i want to appreciate. i was just speaking to mark, former cia analyst, he spoke of how this could be a real moment for the war in ukraine, for ukrainians specifically. can you speak more about that?

how ukrainians, president zelenskyy, can really capitalize on this moment? >> thank you for having me. this is the moment and today the deputy minister of defense just announced that ukrainian forces started advancing in several directions directions and this is actually what is the whole counteroffensive is about. this moment, still, it was unclear for the russians and generally, ukraine kept its secret, where will be the major move that ukrainian troops will make? because the frontline is very long, it stretches from zaporizhzhia region up to through kherson and donetsk and luhansk. it could have been everywhere. still, we know from what ukrainian military leadership says, the major movement has

not started. what we see now is ukrainians probing, still probing, the russian lines of defense. to find out where and when they have to strike most to heart. and also, ukraine uses this time to hit with high precise, long range missiles, received from our partners. the russian ammunition basis and to cut the lines of supply, the logistics, through the russians troop troops. this continues, ukrainian forces readily move forward. >> what is the thought process, you think, for leaders inside ukraine, now seeing a weekend, as many are saying, vladimir putin? if they hadn't seen it before, they certainly see it now. one of his own, rising up against him, for at least 24 hours. we don't necessarily know if

this deal is going to stick. what does this mean for the ukrainian leaders? >> well, we haven't seen putin humiliated as much before. he himself was given address statement, addressing people in russia, calling prigozhin a traitor and accusing him of various serious criminal offense. now, we see the wording on russian state media has completely changed. they said that lukashenko is discussing with putin the negotiations with prigozhin. which itself, in a sense, is a humiliation for putin, who claims to be the leader of the greatest state ever. for putin, it was always the biggest threat, that revolution, or civil unrest, will happen in russia. that's what we have been seeing

throughout the day. so, now, putin will have to do something to somehow restore his face, at least to restore some part of the control. clearly, for everyone now, he's not under the control of the situation. this might lead to a greater terror in russia, this might lead to something that russia will do to ukraine. another strike to ukraine to distract attention from the situation in russia. so, i think that in the upcoming hours, we will see something happen, probably, this won't be something that will cheer people up. >> maria, you are an expert in russian disinformation. president putin is the king of russian disinformation. what is he saying now? how does he spin things now to maintain power, to maintain control? >> well, russian state media were fully involved in all of

the situation, from the early morning. it was obvious, there is chaos. they are not fully aware of what is happening. they wanted to make this image that the state and putin and kremlin are in control of the situation. so, for now, they will try to convene the russian citizens that they're fully controlling everything that is happening in russia. and the situation is ruled out, nothing to worry about. of course, this is not true. the main russian military leadership will see some consequences after this coup. i think we will see something happen -- with gerasimov as well. >> maria avdeeva, thank you so much. we have a lot more coming up,