the situation, from the early morning. it was obvious, there is chaos. they are not fully aware of what is happening. they wanted to make this image that the state and putin and kremlin are in control of the situation. so, for now, they will try to convene the russian citizens that they're fully controlling everything that is happening in russia. and the situation is ruled out, nothing to worry about. of course, this is not true. the main russian military leadership will see some consequences after this coup. i think we will see something happen -- with gerasimov as well. >> maria avdeeva, thank you so much. we have a lot more coming up, our second hour starts right

now. our second hour star>> welcome . i'm yasmin vossoughian, if you just running, as welcome. if you're sticking with, us we're thankful for that. we have got a lot of developments in russia, as the head of the wagner group, yevgeny prigozhin, says his mercenary group is turning back and abandoning's march towards moscow. he made that announcement after the president of belarus claimed he held talks with prigozhin. i want to bring in nbc's met -- in standing back and trying. this math, you heard this thing firsthand. talk us through what you heard from prigozhin, the revelation of this, quote unquote, deal. >> thank you, yasmin. obviously, very shocking development, after what has been, as we've discussed, very astonishing 24 hours in russia. we had another audio message from prigozhin. he speaks very intensely, always, part of his charm, for

lack of better word. we saw that again in this latest message, also a little bit taking a step back. he's admitting that he stepping down. saying that they've come to some kind of agreement. he doesn't want to be responsible for spilling russian blood. he understood that they had reached the point where that was going to come to a head. anne the belarusian president, alexander lukashenko, claiming credit for this. we just heard a little bit more from the belarusian state media about what actually happened there. lukashenko and putin, according to the belarusian state media, spoke about an hour ago about the situation which vladimir putin thanked lukashenko for his role in defusing the situation. that's how they're describing it. as you mentioned, there still a lot of questions about what stands, and what is actual going on here. essentially, president of russia pointing to state media reporting, now supported and thanked his belarusian counterpart for the work done

in handling the situation. with the wagner pmc. i wouldn't say doesn't necessarily look great on the kremlin. or essentially, if you read between the lines here, we're seeing what appears to be an admission that putin did not speak with prigozhin digger directly. he wasn't even naming prigozhin in public. it just kind of, it's hard to see that this is actually over. the fundamental issues at play here, apparently, are unresolved. prigozhin went into this with some very, in the russian context, incendiary, i would argue, unforgivable rhetoric. questioning the entire war. things that anybody else in russia said, could land them in jail. in the way he did it really inflamed, and will uncanny to inflame, nationalist pro war sentiments. this is a problem that the kremlin is, i think, increasingly struggling to manage. especially as prigozhin has become more vocal in recent weeks and months. with these criticisms of how the war has been operated. there's this sense in russia,

sometimes you get, maybe a betrayed soldier narrative. akin to some of the stuff we saw in germany after world war i. this sense that the government lost the war, the soldiers were putting up a good fight, the government, corrupt generals, lost the war. prigozhin channels that rhetoric effectively. when he says these things, he receives a lot of support from pro war russian bloggers who are really one of the biggest voices in the russian media space now. about the war. so, i don't think those issues are resolved here. there's nothing in these reports from lukashenko about those issues. we're just, you know, there's mechanically have to see. do they pull out of rostov where, they go from? here on the whole, i think president putin, at the end of this 24 hours, it looks weaker than he's looked since he entered power. this does not seem like a very well managed situation. everything we've seen from the russian government over the past 24 hours, very much seems coming from a place --

a defensive place, on the back foot. winging it, unsure how to address it. we'll see where things go from here, yasmin. does not appear that many of these issues have been addressed. >> again, as i talked about the last hour with you, along with other guests as well, we haven't heard about the fate of gerasimov. we haven't heard about the fate of shoigu, the defense minister, either. that is specifically who prigozhin called out by name. i'm wondering if you can tell me about some of the reports that i've been hearing as the wagner group mercenary group advanced, there were not many people standing in the way. we're seeing reports that the russian military were standing by. and letting them pastor. is that what you are seeing as well? what does that say about the support for the current regime in russia in the war in ukraine? >> this is a great question. i think it says a lot. we have, of course, we've been

seeing these reports. interestingly, no video necessarily of that. today during the day, we saw a video out of rostov. that showed wagner troops in proximity of russian troops. they were not fighting. prigozhin himself claims that he took that military command in rostov without a fight. the entire, at every step along the way, from the moment a at the border, moved interest of, and continued on, they continue to make claims that they were seeing very little resistance from police, conscripts, just about everybody below the officer level. i think that speaks to what i was bringing up with the poor war military bloggers in this, for lack of better word right now, betrayed soldier narrative. in the lower ranks, the guys who are being sent to the front, there is sympathy for the things prigozhin is saying. he presents himself as this kind of nationalist every man who's been in the trenches. so, it would've been interesting to see.

>> yeah, matt bodner, thank you. i want to bring in now john brennan, former director of the cia to talk more about this. director brennan, thanks for joining us on this. we appreciate it. i want you to give us first a 30,000 foot view take on this whole thing. how astounding the last 24 hours have been, watching this advance. seeing that prigozhin was making on moscow. now this potential, quote unquote, deal he has struck with belarusian president lukashenko. >> well, yasmin, the events are fast unfolding. as matt mentioned, i think we still are going to be seeing a fair amount of development in the coming days and weeks, that will determine exactly the reverberations and the impact of this event. clearly, that has been a humiliating embarrassment for vladimir putin. it's demonstrated weakness. the fact that this deal was struck by lukashenko, the belarusian president, with prigozhin. it's clear, prigozhin was moving from his rhetorical

glass and broadsides against the mainstream russian military to actually doing something on the ground, by moving his columns and convoys up towards moscow. in history, sometimes a failed or aborted coup, and that's really what it was looking like, they fail or they are boarded because anticipated support is not materialized. maybe prigozhin was counting on some of the russian military units to provide support to him, communications or supply, logistics. armored units as well as maybe air. or maybe even some of his own forces, were rather hesitant to continue to move into what was going to be a bloody battle. in moscow. i do think that putin now needs to restore an image of strength. i know that there's been speculation about maybe defense ministers shoigu and chief general of staff, gerasimov, might be removed. these are two individuals who have been very loyal to putin. they've been in place for over a decade. if you were to remove them now,

at least immediately, it would show that he's basically capitulating to prigozhin's demands. that's not going to show an image of strength and being in control. i do not think that is going to be able to forgive prigozhin, even though he's not named him explicitly. but prigozhin certainly has cast his lot. if putin is going to restore this image of strength, which i think he really wants to, and he relies on that image, he always has, he's going to have to take action against prigozhin. which maybe the rest or something else. this situation is still unfolding. i think there's still a lot of uncertainty. one of the things that putin has to determine is, who can he trust at this point? i'm sure, over the last 24 hours, he was asking that question. which members of his inner circle, as well as which military commanders was he going to be able to trust. be able to put down what it would look like a rebellion by prigozhin. >> for a long time, he thought that he could trust prigozhin. obviously, that is not the case. why would prigozhin strike this

deal if he did not get assurances that gerasimov and shoigu would step down, considering those are the two names that were in fact, called out? otherwise, he will be a total target of the russian president? there's no way president going to allow him to stick around. >> i agree. also, i think it was because he felt as though he wasn't able to prosecute this coup or this rebellion effectively. he stepped down or reversed course because i think he felt as though she was not going to be a winner on this. again, whether or not he was counting on some support for the military units that just didn't happen. i don't think the deal that was struck with lukashenko's gonna be something that prigozhin is gonna be able to walk away as winter. that's not something that putin will allow. even if putin might have agreed in this unwritten or unspoken agreement, to do certain things, putin has gone back on his word before.

he's not going to want to emerge from this, as looking weak. submissive. as someone who, again, gave into prigozhin. because that could only encourage others to do the same thing. >> director brennan, if you are advising the president right now from an intelligence perspective, what would you be telling him watching this all play out in the geopolitical implications of it all? >> well, i think i say it's still very unsettled. we'll be trying to get a handle on exactly what is happening inside the kremlin, throughout the country. what the impact is on the broader russian military. with the impact as far as the war fighting in ukraine. what we should be doing in support of ukraine. maybe taking advantage of the opportunity now. also, keeping a very close eye on the strategic assets of russia, its nuclear inventory, missiles and other types of things. again, i think this is still very, very unsettled. what happens in the coming days and weeks, again, will determine the course. whether or not putin is going to be able to survive this, politically, as well as just personally.

this is the most serious challenge he's ever faced, it's a humiliating defeat. not only on the eyes of the russian people, also the eyes of the world. that's something that i'm sure putin just wants to be able to reverse. and we're going to see whether or not he's going to demonstrate the strength that is needed in order to restore his image inside of russia. >> john brennan, former director the cia, thank, you sir. >> thanks, yasmin. >> we're gonna continue to follow the latest development out of russia, everybody, throughout the hour. coming up in just 60 seconds time, how pivotal is this moment for russian president putin's control of the country? i'm gonna ask chief foreign affairs correspondent host of andrew mitchell reports, andrea mitchell. coming up next. ng up next our heritage is ingrained in our skin. and even when we metamorphosize into our new evolved form, we carry that spirit with us. because you can take alfa romeo out of italy.

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ali, wagner group chief prigozhin, now standing down. his moscow advance after an attempted rebellion. the belarus government releasing a statement a moment ago saying, negotiations lasted the entire day. no specifics on any deal that may have been struck. joining me now on the phone, chief foreign affairs correspondent, the host of andrea mitchell reports, andrew mitchell. andrea, my friend, as always, it is great to talk to you. i know you've been watching this closely, if not more so, than i have. it is astounding what we have seen over the past 24 hours. as director biden just said to me, this is the most serious challenge that russian president vladimir putin has ever seen to his leadership in russia over his last two plus decades. >> that's absolutely right, what john biden has watched this so closely over the years. neither of us, none of, us have seen anything like this. this is unprecedented, for blood reporting to go on national television and acknowledge that he is being challenged. to call prigozhin a traitor, to

call this treason. to say that this is like the civil war of 1917 in russia. to call on people to rally around him. is to acknowledge weakness. vladimir putin does not acknowledge weakness. however this turns out, with prigozhin now turning around, we understand. backing off. if this has, in fact, been negotiated temporarily, if paso by lukashenko in belarus, there's an irreparable, irremediable, damage done to putin's leadership. and his presidency. and how this plays out in the future remains to be seen. >> it's interesting, andrea, i heard you on earlier. i watched putin's address live as well. having been in moscow myself, reported there as well, i've

watched many addresses from him. he seemed off kilter. he seemed nervous. he didn't seem like the confident let repetition that we have come to know, which might speak to where he is right now. psychologically. considering this most recent revolt. >> absolutely. there are reports, and we have not confirmed this, reports of potential changes in the military leadership within the kremlin. to try to placate prigozhin. something persuaded prigozhin to back down. whatever that was, it could've been some confession. we don't yet know. possibly, came from putin. through like lukashenko. one obvious concern has to be to the united states, the strategic assets, where the tactical nuclear weapons? how secure is the command and

control? that's something that we always have to be wary of, even with just a war in ukraine in the potential threats. so, the threat that putin is voicing, about using the worst possible weapons. now, we don't know what putin might do. i don't think we'd ever use nuclear weapons against his own people, with prigozhin on russian territory, but he will, i will think, stop at anything down the road to try to consolidate his power. reconsolidate his power. >> andrea, how shocked were you to hear that this deal was even struck. by, a, lukashenko, b, struck within 24 hours of prigozhin's advance on moscow. considering the rhetoric that has already been put out there, considering how vulnerable he is now made himself. and understanding, we don't even know those terms yet. we don't know if, in fact, lukashenko, through putin, has agreed to the stepping down of

gerasimov and shoigu. which is what prigozhin wanted. how shocked were you by that? how surprised were you by the? >> very. from the officials i've spoken to, they were as well. experienced -- are surprised by all of us. that's why i believe that if it is true that prigozhin has backed off and compromised, he's gotten something in return. it's probably gerasimov and shoigu's heads, on a stick. you know, and we don't know yet whether is actually an organized russian military attack on his own wagner forces. you know, prigozhin has been the tip of the spear for vladimir putin beyond ukraine, throughout other continents in african elsewhere. so, he's been prosecuting russian foreign policy in syria

and elsewhere. and doing it in the most brutal possible fashion. we're talking about two very brutal characters here. it's hard to know who you would root for all of this. >> yeah, andrea mitchell for us, as always, my friend, thank you. of course, you can always watch andrea mitchell reports every monday through friday, noon eastern. right here on msnbc. still ahead, everybody, a live report from ukraine, on how officials are responding to the russian infighting that we have seen today. plus, how the u.s. and other allies could assist ukrainian troops, and what could be a crucial moment in that war. i'm gonna speak to alexander mid men, former security -- with the u.s. security council, coming up. we're gonna be right back. right back. that's why herbal essences is packed with naturally derived plant ingredients you love, and none of the stuff you don't. our sulfate-free collections smell incredible... ♪

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today's remarkable reversal by the wagner group came in part, supposedly from yevgeny prigozhin's desire to avoid shedding russian blood. he has never had a problem spilling ukrainian blood. with that, i wanna bring in msnbc's rough centers, again with us from capital city of kyiv. raf, the ukrainians they've been pointing with pride in recent days to their counter offensive. any sense yet as to what happens now with the war? >> yasmin, probably still too early to say. i can tell, you president alaska and his team, have been closely incredibly closely tracking what's been going on inside russia.

as you can imagine, their hope has been, with the russians apparently divided amongst themselves there might be an opening for ukrainian forces, mounting this counteroffensive, in the south and if the east. at this point, we don't have any firm evidence that ukrainians have been able to exploit these openings. they have made a lot of progress on the battlefield, in these confusing last 24 hours or so. we haven't heard from president zelenskyy since prigozhin said he was backing down. we did hear from him several times throughout the day. he was kind of taunting the russian leader, vladimir putin. he was also trying to speak directly to both the russian people and to russian soldiers. yasmin, as you know, zelenskyy is from the east of the country. russian it is native language. i want to read you a little bit of a statement he made earlier in russian. he said, the man from the kremlin, blood reboot, and is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere, not showing himself. i am sure that he is no longer

in moscow. zelenskyy they're saying he doesn't believe the kremlin's claims that putin is staying in the russian capital. he goes on to say, in the longer he can run, between his bunkers, the more you will lose, you who are connected with russia. >> well. >> you can imagine, presently, the president of ukraine, is trying to speak to these frontline russian soldier saying, listen, your leaders are fighting amongst themselves, they're asking you to fight in these trenches. is this really something you want to be doing? >> quickly, we don't have a lot of time. prigozhin essentially saying, he's returning to his columns. when saying he was backing off. any word, any reporting, that he is returning to ukraine? >> that seems to be the implication. he says that his forces are returning to their bases, most of which are here in ukraine's. we don't know exactly which parts of the line these wagner troops who are marching towards moscow came off of. ukrainians, as you can imagine, would love to know. those presumably are weakened

parts of the russian line right now. it seems to be, from this message he seems to be saying his forces are returning to the fight here in ukraine. we'll have to very closely watch, and see if they leave. that southern city of rostov. right before they come back here. yeah? >> rough centers for, us thank you. coming up next, everybody, the treat of this -- rating not a question about the loyalties of other russian security forces may lie. so, could we see other groups follow? could this be an opening for them? i'm gonna ask former u.s. ambassador to ukraine, bill taylor, next about that. much, much more. we'll be right back. l be right back. it's not too late for another treatment option. to learn more visit treatted.com that's treatt-e-d.com.

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we want to get the view from europe on the apparent end of the rebellion against russia by the wagner group. nbc news foreign correspondent, -- is in london for us. ali, we know that u.s. secretary of state blinken they have been in touch with g7 partners when the mercenaries were heading towards moscow. is europe now exhaling on any level? >> yeah, well, they are and they aren't. anything that's not good for vladimir putin would be welcomed amongst the g7 countries. in europe. they would like to see some sort of pushback from him. they'd like to see the war not go in his way. not necessarily for the wagner group to suddenly take up the position in the kremlin. yes, there is a sigh of relief

that this hasn't blown out into some enormous, chaotic situation that spills into borders that russia has so many boris borders of europe. but it will be a disappointment, it looks like putin, again, has the upper hand after all of this. probably, a mixed bag of feelings here in europe, that maybe they've averted some huge disaster that couldn't have been contained. if this became some sort of civil war in russia, that spilled out. again, there's gotta be a level of disappointment, that putin manages to ride out so many of these storms. you know, this morning, this was looking really, really bad for putin. as the wagner group was advancing towards moscow. now, this big retreat, you're wondering where prigozhin's political and military future is. probably, not very secure, given putin's taste for revenge. here in europe, they're going to be watching the situation very, very closely over the

next few hours, days and weeks, to see how loyal the security services and the national guard in russia remain to putin, as that we've seen some chunks in his armor. >> key complicated allies, iran in china. to russia. what do we know about any conversations, either those two leaders have, with president putin. and why they would be watching this play out so closely. >> well, these are two key allies of russia. these are two partners that they can rely on. i mean, we just saw secretary blinken went to china on a goodwill mission. before he even got back to the states, president biden was calling president xi a dictator. putin can rely on she not to call him out in public. he couldn't rely on him on support. he can rely on their iranians to keep providing them with drones to fight that war. it's a mutual relationship, the iranians, the last thing they

want to see is vladimir putin gone. they can rely on him for immense amounts of support, when it comes to countering the united states, for a vote on the security council. so, these guys have relationship, they rely on their own powers staying in place. it is not to their benefit to see somebody like putin go. they will be watching the situation very closely, especially given that they have a massive uprising in iran towards the end of the last year. very different what's happening here in russia. there was 25,000 armed troops going up against iran's supreme leader, or potentially, going up against him. the situations are also similar in many ways. and they rely on their own authoritarianism in both country. to prop one another up. >> ali arouzi, thank you for bringing that down. we appreciate it. i want to bring in now former u.s. ambassador to ukraine, bill taylor, to talk more about this. ambassador taylor, thanks for

joining us on this. give me first the big picture view. you've been watching this thing, very closely, play out. now, these latest developments that we are hearing. of the wagner group standing down. what do you make a little? >> yasmin, this is a demonstration of chaos in the kremlin. this is a demonstration that president putin is really in charge. he's got big problems across his various ministries, across his various supporters. that's the main message. that president putin has trouble at home. and that's the other big picture. that's good news for ukraine. ukraine has been readying its forces, probing, trying to find the weak links in the line up and down the russian line. where the russians have been trying to defend against this big counteroffensive. they've had to pull troops out in order to probably counter

prigozhin. prigozhin says he's now moving back towards ukraine. it's not clear how far he's going to go. it's not at all clear what prigozhin has agreed to, or with whom he's agreed. so, all to say, the big picture is, putin is in trouble. maybe has weathered the storm for the moment. he's got big problems. the other thing is, ukrainians are preparing their counteroffensive. >> so, if not today, if not tomorrow, ambassador taylor, you have spoken about this multiple times. i've asked you this question multiple times. what is the off ramp for ukrainians? when does this actually end? when does russia admit defeat? could this feasibly be the beginning of an off ramp for the war in ukraine? >> it could. it could, yasmin. if putin has the difficulties that i just described. if prigozhin is shown to be, is

clearly not a strong player in the defense of this line that the russians are trying to hold in ukraine, if the morale of the russian soldiers is as bad as it must be, as they have been -- it's been shown that the russian chain of command is in disarray, and it's been shown that some of the russian units have been pulled off the line to go back into russia to defend itself. against prigozhin. all of those indicate that there is an opportunity for the ukrainians to push through this counteroffensive, and to get into the russian rear. and get into a place where the russians, and you asked what ends this? this ends with president putin realizing that he's lost. that he's lost in ukraine. and he tries to come up with some kind of an agreement. when he decides, when he realizes, when he concludes that he's lost?

and then he will try to get something out of some kind of negotiation. >> former u.s. ambassador to ukraine, bill taylor, thank you so much. great to talk to you, sir. >> thank you, yasmin. >> coming up, everybody. look more into the new reaction from ukrainian president zelenskyy to the russian mercenary rebelling, calling it quote unquote, complete chaos. we're gonna look at what the wagner group wants with ukraine, and how kyiv takes advantage of this chaos. coming up next. coming up next t. subaru and our retailers are there to help... by providing blankets for comfort and warmth and encouraging messages of hope to help support nearly three hundred thousand patients facing cancer nationwide. we call it “the subaru love promise.” and we're proud to be the largest automotive donor to the leukemia and lymphoma society. subaru. more than a car company. from big cities, to small towns, and on main streets across the us, you'll find pnc bank.

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world leaders closely watching the developments in russia, as putin saw what initially to seem to be his initial threat was power since taking office. i wanna bring and lieutenant colonel alexander vindman, director of european affairs for the international security council. i don't any way to ukraine. thanks for joining us. not because of what's happening right now, but you had preplanned this trip. we appreciate you talking to us on your layover there. what is going on here? why would prigozhin take a deal like this? even though we don't know what is in the deal. considering the possible threat to his life now, concerning what has taken place over the last 24 hours? >> -- for having me on. we're not seeing the end of the story. certainly, prigozhin sophisticated enough to recognize that the he isolates himself in an area. he goes back to ukraine. he is objecting himself to

being eliminated by the russians. putin, at the same time, cannot contend with the possibility of prigozhin maintaining power and conduct another one of his operations that threaten putin's regime. so we're, not seeing the end of it. as to why we're here, this is a long running feud between prigozhin and the chief of the general staff, the minister of defense. they've been trying to pin him back as prigozhin's become increasingly aggressive in criticizing these two military leaders for, effect ineffectively running the war. finally, the straw that broke the camel's back, the minister of defense saw mind a regulation that's -- all these private armies to the ministry of defense, prigozhin looks like, the past couple of weeks, may have sort of consider the idea of what he needs to do to protest -- his actions were, frankly, irrational. putting himself in enormous danger.

but he decided to, looks, like sees the southern military district as a bargaining chip. he was extremely successful. on a post. and probably maybe even on the fly decided to move towards moscow to strengthen his position. i don't think he may very well have achieved the goal of getting president putin to agree to show a go and grab some of. whether that happens is dubious. that's where we are right now. >> do you think that promise was made to prigozhin, to remove shoigu and gerasimov? >> i think so. the fact is, prigozhin, in a lot of ways, sees himself, or saw himself, as the loyal lieutenant. that he was basically telling and counseling the king, the reason the war is not going, well these other elites that were not effectively conducting their job. he may very well have received that kind of assurance and security guarantee. whether putin follows through

is highly, highly dubious. >> what do you make of the fact that prigozhin was, it seemed, unopposed? as he made his way towards moscow? whatever support does he have, do you know, inside the russian military? and how integral is that what happens in the next couple of weeks, as we watch this thing play out? >> so, this was, in fact, probably a one shot deal or prigozhin's deal to conduct this kind of operation. the russian state will be better prepared for it. but, thus what prigozhin did, he was pretty successful in doing other kind of interaction that is private military corporation had been successful in africa, for instance. he sees -- seems surprised, -- to achieve his objectives in an area where russia has committed so heavily to ukraine, it only has paramilitary forces that are good for riot control,

counter special operations forces. not heavily armed, hardened military leaders. the fact is, there's an element of self preservation with all the moves that prigozhin was countering, wagner have been encountering, they were not gonna go up against tanks in these heavily armed formations. an air force that looks like it did, some six or seven combination of planes and helicopters were shot down. you know, the biggest takeaway for me from this, this is not the end of the story. each all a dark will look to secure their position, potentially through the idea of securing a small army. we've entered a period of war, the russia ukraine more, of a men's instability. a lot of opportunity for ukraine, ukraine could seize the momentum from the gaps in command and control and probably secure some territory. it's a hugely unstable period of time. and someone foreseeable, frankly, based on the fact that russia was losing this war for pretty much the past year. >> i asked this question a

former ambassador bill taylor, i would ask it to you. do you see this as a possible off ramp for ukraine? >> it could be an off ramp, actually. for me, it kind of being an off ramp, mainly because there are a number of scapegoats. whether it's shoigu, gerasimov, prigozhin, clearly, putin could come up with any story on a dime. turned from gaming prigozhin, to offering us a sweetheart deal. it doesn't really take that much of a pretext for putin to latch on and pivot away, and live to fight another day. this could be the moment, or this could drag out for weeks while ukraine's liberate additional territory, and russia suffers enormous human losses. and putin comes up with any number of different scenarios to justify wasn't it wasn't him that loss of, or somebody else's fault. >> lieutenant colonel alexander vindman, safe travels, thank

you sir. >> thank you. >> still ahead, everybody. looking more the russian wagner group leader who despite backing down, is presenting a massive challenge to russian plate president lettering putin. what his past says about what may be to come. we'll be right back. right back. iphone 14 pro max on us with myplan. so you get exactly what you want and only pay for what you need. act now and get iphone 14 pro max on us when you switch. for a limited time only. it's your verizon. (vo) if you've had thyroid eye disease for years and things are a no-go because you keep seeing double, it's not too late for another treatment option. to learn more visit treatted.com that's treatt-e-d.com. ♪♪ allergies don't have to be scary. (screaming) defeat allergy headaches fast with new flonase headache and allergy relief! two pills relieve allergy headache pain? and the congestion that causes it! flonase headache and allergy relief. psst! psst! all good!

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that a lot of people call simple, but when you're extremely heavy they're not so simple. golo is real and when you take release welcome back, as we've been and follow the plan, it works. reporting, breaking new developments after an attempted armed rebellion by a onetime putin military ally has now been called off. belarus releasing a statement a short time ago, claiming that president lukashenko brokered a deal with wagner group chief, prigozhin. to stop the advance to moscow. it is not clear what promises, if any, were made. prigozhin's mercenaries had advanced with 120 miles of moscow, back with me now is mark -- a former senior intelligence officer at the cia, responsible for overseeing all of the ice operation in europe and eurasia. he's now a nonresident senior fellow at the atlantic council. he's also an msnbc lashell

security and intelligence analyst. and a lot of titles under his belt. mark, thanks for joining us. once again. from what we know about prigozhin, how do you see this thing playing out in the next 24 to 48? considering we literally know nothing about this, quote unquote, deal. and that is going back to his columns. >> right, so, literally as i was getting on the air right now once again, my phone blew up with some statement that prigozhin might have been offered amnesty or asylum in belarus. so things are happening very quickly. i think we really have to kind of figure out what was the deal. was it, perhaps, some kind of safety for prigozhin? in return for the removal from the russian military of shoigu and gerasimov? this is something that certainly prigozhin wanted. this is the question of what happens to the wagner group fighters who are involved in combat? remember, they actually killed today, shot down, several

russian aircraft. that was combat between wagner and the russian air force. so, it's a very murky situation. certainly, unclear. you kind of look at it overall, this is some dysfunction going on within russia. where it lands we don't know. certainly, where prigozhin ends up, whether back at his bases or in belarus, we're gonna find out shortly. >> yeah, i don't want to be clear, nbc does not have that reporting. about him giving amnesty in belarus. why that would even be something that he would trust, considering lukashenko's close relationship with vladimir putin. >> right, none of this makes particular sense. we have to go back to prigozhin 's roots. this was an incredible ally of vladimir putin. who, of course, famous stories, started off as a hotdog vendor. and it up as a caterer, then of course leads this quite influential paramilitary organization. and is integral recently to the

war in ukraine. you know, how this relationship has deteriorated is quite remarkable. one thing that i think we will be looking at, particularly, from the u.s. intelligence community, what is the degree of loyalty within the russian military, still, to prigozhin? to the wagner group forces? who really were considered the vanguard, the finest fighting force, for russia, which doesn't say much, but for russia in ukraine. so, elements of this deal we're gonna figure out what's going on. in the days to come. >> let me ask you this, i know vladimir putin's circle, historically, has been impenetrable. especially, by cia case officers. there's a real opening here for gaining entry into that circle, if you want to gather intelligence on a russian president who seems very weak right about now. i imagine those conversations are happening inside intelligence circles. >> oh, yasmin, you're right.

what a time to be a case officer, on the streets of europe or central asia or even, frankly, anywhere. because of the russia diplomatic presence. really hanging out the shingle, saying walk-in,'s ball and here's our welcome. if you take a look back at your country, what do you see? do you really want to go back to moscow? same thing for russia military and russian intelligence officers? this is a time, frankly, for tremendous opportunity. with not only the u.s. intelligence community, our allies as well, to recruit russians. who do want to save their skin. now, would be the time. to volunteer. you saw, actually, several weeks ago, the cia put out a video that went on to russian telegram channels. their social media networks, actually noting that volunteers were welcome. it's the heyday -- >>? ,? >> well, that was fantastic. there's two objectives one is to actually, try to get volunteers to come.

whether that's a u.s. embassy. in moscow, anywhere around the world. number two, frankly, incredible trolling. of russia and blood revolution. if things are so bad in your country that the cia can put for word, on telegram, what is a channel that's watched by so many russian security officials, that we think that things are so bad. that's a pretty big statement that vladimir putin really can't explain to his people. now, the russians actually tried to come back into one of their own, this is the tit-for-tat espionage war. bottom line, if you're a russian official now, it's the time to get out. things are going downhill. they know, it is just a question, are they willing to take that step? >> how bad are things for literal putin right now, mark? >> i think it's pretty significant, this is obviously the biggest challenge to his regime. let's see what happens with this deal. i think, in a state, particulate autocratic state, when you rely on the security services. embers can be looking behind their back. there's gonna be a great deal

of distrust. who's loyal? who is not? that's not the sign of a healthy country, never was. i think putin has certainly some dark days ahead. let's go back one more time, i know we've talked about it during the day. this is the time for ukraine to take the opportunity. they have their boots on russia's neck right now. the counteroffensive is absolutely critical to move forward. this is the time, with some disarray, within russia, to really move forward. >> mark, thank you. it once again, happy birthday. enjoy the rest of your day, think of his percentage of time with us on a special day. that wraps up for me, everybody. i'm yasmin vossoughian, of a back in the chair tomorrow morning. seven 8 am eastern, four more special coverage. you don't wanna miss that. back again at the normal time, to the four pm eastern, right here on msnbc. our breaking news coverage continues right now, with my friend and colleague, nicole wallace. wallace.