that's not the sign of a healthy country, never was. i think putin has certainly some dark days ahead. let's go back one more time, i know we've talked about it during the day. this is the time for ukraine to take the opportunity. they have their boots on russia's neck right now. the counteroffensive is absolutely critical to move forward. this is the time, with some disarray, within russia, to really move forward. >> mark, thank you. it once again, happy birthday. enjoy the rest of your day, think of his percentage of time with us on a special day. that wraps up for me, everybody. i'm yasmin vossoughian, of a back in the chair tomorrow morning. seven 8 am eastern, four more special coverage. you don't wanna miss that. back again at the normal time, to the four pm eastern, right here on msnbc. our breaking news coverage continues right now, with my friend and colleague, nicole wallace. wallace.

hi there, everyone. i'm nicole wallace, thanks for being here with us. we've got a lot of places you get your news today, we're glad you're joining us. four pm in the east, it's 11 pm in moscow. we're following breaking news this hour, with the latest on the revolt unfolding in russia. and we see news is confirming, yevgeny prigozhin is the head of the wagner group, which is a private mercenary army in russia, that's done a lot of the fighting in the war in ukraine. he has called for his moscow bound convoy to stand down for now. that's only after advancing to within 120 miles of the city of moscow. in the biggest threat to russian president vladimir putin's grip on power that we've ever seen. prigozhin sent a voice note, signaling that the forces would stand down, saying the group understands, quote, the responsibility for spilling russian blood on one of the sides. we are turning back our convoys, and going back to field camps, according to the plan. this comes just hours after the wagner group claimed it had taken control of the russian

city of rostov-on-don. russia's military headquarters, in its war against ukraine. it appeared that wagner forces were set to wage an armed rebellion against the kremlin. citing the deaths of thousands of its fighters in ukraine under what they call, quote, false pretenses. it's a move putin described as treason. the promise to crush what he called the armed mutiny. this is important to note, the wagner group has been critical in russia's ability to wage war in ukraine. they have backed up russia's defense ministry. the white house has been monitoring all of the events in russia all day long. president joe biden and vice president kamala harris have been continually briefed by the national security team. president biden speaking earlier today by phone with the leaders of france, germany and the uk. before nato leaders all reiterating their support for ukraine, according to the white house. let me bring into our coverage our team of reporters, experts and analysts here to discuss all of this. from kyiv, nbc news foreign

correspondent, raf sanchez. from washington d.c., nbc news white house correspondent, monica alba, former deputy national security adviser, ben rhodes. raf, we understand your some breaking news coming in just the last few minutes? >> nicole, in just the last few minutes, russian state media is quoting vladimir putin's spokesman, dimitri peskov, who is saying that the criminal case against yevgeny prigozhin, the leader of the wagner mercenary group, for armed rebellion, is going to be dropped. in exchange, prigozhin is going to agree to go into some kind of exile in belarus. this is coming from russian state media. that has not been independently confirmed by nbc news. this appears to be our first glimpse at the possible terms of the deal that resulted in prigozhin halting his advance on moscow, turning his mercenaries around. this same russian state media

report is saying that there will be an amnesty for the wagner mercenaries who took part in this rebellion. and that those wagner fighters who refused to take part will be merged into russia's defense ministry. no, nicolle, this would make sense. the president of belarus, lukashenko, a close ally of vladimir putin, said earlier tonight, he was the mediator between the kremlin in the wagner mercenary group. he's the one who brokered the deal. that led to wagner calling off its advance on moscow. so, it would seem to make sense that belarus could be the place where prigozhin might agree to go into exile. we do not have any confirmation from prigozhin that he has agreed to this deal. nicole, we are also seeing on russian state media, reports that wagner mercenaries are now leaving the southern city of rostov, which they seized overnight. this is a key city, it's the city where the invasion of ukraine has been masterminded.

it's close to the russian -- ukrainian border, rather. worryingly, for vladimir putin, those same russian media reports are also showing crowds of civilians cheering on those wagner mercenaries. so, the big question hanging over all of this, assuming that this deal has been made, is it possible, given the bridges that have been burned, the red lines that have been crossed, is it possible for these wagner mercenaries to return to the field, here in ukraine, and continue the fight alongside the russian military. remember, nicole, but a reporting was on tv this morning, saying that prigozhin had stabbed the army in the back. stop the russian people in the back. and russians who have crossed putin in much smaller ways than seizing a city and marching on moscow have not lived to tell the tale. we will see if this deal holds. if there is really any way back for the wagner mercenary group and for its leader. nicole? >> rough, but you have any

reporting on what prigozhin might have negotiated his indictment is of the conduct of the russian military, and his critique of his leaders. do you have any indication that there any concessions from the kremlin? >> the concession appears to be the withdrawal of this criminal case that was opened by the domestic security agency, the fsb, yesterday. prigozhin, at this moment, has some leverage. he's still, at least as of a couple hours ago, seem to be in control of the southern city of rostov. the kremlin, as you can imagine, desperate to avoid the spectacle of russian forces opening fire on each other. at the gates of moscow. prigozhin had some cords to play. the question is, if you he withdraws from rostov, if his forces go back to their bases, if they return to the front lines here in ukraine, what sort of rule of age does he have? what kind of guarantees does he have that he is going to be a

safe man in belarus, given how openly he has defied president putin in russia's military leadership over the past 24 hours? nicole? >> unbelievable day there. thank you so much for your reporting on it. if you have to run and leave us to do more reporting, feel free to do that. i want to bring in monica alba and ben rhodes. monika, i understand that, strategically, in operationally, and at every level, everyone is publicly saying very little. i know it's been a very busy day behind the scenes. take us inside what that looks like? >> exactly, nicole. there's been a flurry of diplomatic activity. even starting as soon as yesterday, those were the first signs that something was unfolding. the white house was, of course, very closely monitoring, gathering intelligence on, and talking to allies and partners. interestingly, we know that president biden hasn't spoken to this on camera. he had the opportunity to. a little bit earlier today, when he was leaving the white house. for camp david, which was a

pre-planned trip. the reporters who are accompanying him could have asked him to come to the camp and give a statement if he wanted to. he chose, by design, not to address this, even though we know, of course, behind the scenes, he has been briefed repeatedly. he was in a meeting this morning with everybody from his secretary of state to his secretary of defense, the head of the cia. discussing what was going on. making this decision, publicly, not to weigh in on anything as this was such a fast moving developments. yesterday, a national security adviser, jake sullivan, was actually supposed to leave for copenhagen to take part in some international talks about the war in ukraine. he decided to scrap the trip. when this was all really starting to bubble. because he wanted to be able to monitor the situation. and brief the president. instead, he participated in that virtually this morning. that just speaks to the seriousness, of course, of this geopolitically. in from an implication point of view, we also saw that the

joint chairman of the joint chiefs, general mark milley, canceled a trip he was supposed to take to the middle east as well. every aspect of the administration really taking the last 24 hours to take stock of what's happened here. in terms of these latest developments about the wagner group retreating, the white house does not want to comment on any of that. u.s. officials are still assessing this. they're being very careful in their public posture. the vice president was actually traveling today in charlotte, north carolina, to give a major speech on the dobbs anniversary. also asked about this a couple of times. but decided not to weigh in. you can imagine, nicole, from your experience, knowing exactly how this goes. just because we're not seeing the president on camera at camp david or anything like that, doesn't mean he's not intensely working the phones. he did speak to the leaders of france, germany and the uk earlier. in a very short readout, the white house simply said, they talked about the situation in russia. and that they all reaffirmed their support for ukraine.

as we look ahead to the next couple of weeks, this nato summit that is expected to take place in lithuania, that the president will attend, was already extremely interesting and relevant. now, even more so, of course, with all of this going on, nicole? >> ben rhodes, viewers of our networks are so well stated all these issues, i'll admit, i made some calls to understand how central the wagner group and paid mercenaries have been to vladimir putin's war effort in ukraine. the answer was universally sizable. they were in the league in bakhmut. some theory among military experts that some of what precocious was a tipping point may have been the brutality that he saw the troops endure there, the way disorders and others were treated. my question for you, ben rhodes, can putin prevail in ukraine without the wagner group another mercenaries? >> well, they weren't prevailing even with the wagner group. if they lose a bunch of that

fighting power, it's going to be significant blow to them, and precisely the time that ukraine has launched this counteroffensive. . with amped up nato weapons. since the invasion of ukraine, the first time around 2014, the wagner group has been increasingly essential to putin's policies. they were at the tip of the spear of his activities in syria. they've been at the tip of a spear in some of his activities again influence in africa. and when the war started, we saw prigozhin come back to russia and ukraine, and really take command as a fiefdom within the russian command structure. it was wagner group fighters, including a lot of convicts who released on the condition that they fight with wagner, who are on those front lines in those grinding battles for the city of bakhmut for many months. prigozhin lost many, many men in that fight. he thought he, he's been saying on telegram another channels for sometime now, the russian ministry of defense was hanging him out to dry. not providing it with support. not providing him with ammunition. so, these grievances have been building.

and the way that putin has run his regime for a long time, he does have these competing corrupt fiefdoms incredibly corrupt -- good deal of money on the side. he's church and roll on kadyrov. is also played a role in the fight in ukraine, he's dependent on these, people also at odds with each, other nickel. this is not a unified command structure. and that is been boiling underneath the service in unexplored interview. so good to putin's next prestige actually running the unified command over the last 44 hours and it's also the potential loss of wagner and his most potent fighting forces on the front lines. that does not bode well with particular time when ukraine is back on the offense. >>, i believe the wall street journal has indicated that some of its journalists who have been charged and detained on espionage charges in russia, some of the state department

vehemently refutes. he was doing some reporting on the wagner group. what would move putin to do a deal, given prigozhin amnesty after this international humiliation of vladimir putin today? >> well, i think it's a sign of weakness, really nicolle. on the one hand, if prigozhin really was making a move for power in moscow, he may need to see if he could've peeled off some of the other russian command structure. some other russian units or regional figures. that didn't really happen. we saw circling of the wagons, and some of russia's political leadership around putin. but at the same time, you also saw that russia, that is over, stretched this has its metal or -- couldn't really stop prigozhin from taking over the city of rostov, which is the main logistics hub for the war in ukraine. and potentially threatening moscow. so both of these guys were dealing with out the hand that they wanted. so for putin to climb down, and grant prigozhin amnesty, and

potentially lead him to go into amnesty and belarus, we'll see if that actually happens. putin may exact revenge on a later date. that shows that he didn't feel they necessarily had the power to quash what he called this mutiny. i think putin has really lost face here. everybody in the world just saw that one of his chief lieutenants, somebody who has been a literal soldier over the years, turning against him. reaching, essentially, the outskirts of moscow. even having done that, and even having had putin come out himself, and say this was a mutiny. putin coming out himself, and issuing charges, and saying that he was going to put prigozhin away for 20 years in prison. for him to now be granting amnesty, that sends a message that he is not really in control. in the same way that he has wanted to project for the last 20 years. >> monica, i tried and couldn't get an answer to this question. was the u.s. surprised? did the u.s. government know, 24 hours ago, that this was what was going to happen today? >> we've asked that question as

well, the nicolle, i think the fact that the national security adviser did cancel that trip to copenhagen yesterday, we are trying to drill down on exactly what time that decision was made. it would suggest that, again, maybe perhaps earlier on in the day, before this became a little bit more public, was there a sense of that. and was that why jake sullivan decided not to go to denmark to participate in those talks? that was an open question. i think this is something that the white house is, of course, been watching very closely for some time in this broader sense. of knowing that things can turn on a dime, in an incredibly volatile scenario like the one we are seeing. so while not specifically, necessarily, pointing to the possibility of this for weeks and months now, they've been talking to some of the disagreements. of course, certainly the atrocities by the wagner group's. specifically. i think this is a president who always, in every meeting, with every world leader, no matter what the context or the backdrop is, is talking about

specifically the war in ukraine. the u.s. support for it, and all of his conversations. but he always seems to add that there is a lot more that he knows, that he doesn't want to say. that he doesn't want to speculate on. that he doesn't want to weigh in, or wait into too far, because he doesn't want to also make this appearance that he is predicting anything. hypothetical, before it happens. but u.s. officials have been monitoring this very closely. again, just the fact that something like this could take place didn't seem to surprise the officials that i was talking to. but they also spoke to how nervous they were about the far reaching implications of something like this, given how wild it could get. and still, frankly, since we don't really know what happens next here, that nicolle. >> it's such an interesting point, all those travel adjustments, should we say. and the track record. u.s. intelligence has predicted, privately and publicly, just about every move that russia would make in its war with

ukraine. monica alba i, ben rhodes, and raf sanchez who had to leave us a couple minutes early. thank you very much for starting us off on this extraordinary day of news. much more ahead for us, lieutenant colonel, alex vindman, we'll be here to talk about this complex military meltdown in putin's russia. as well as putin's response that we just learned from raf sanchez. don't go anywhere. t go anywhere. and even w hen we metamorphosize into our new evolved form, we carry that spirit with us. because you can take alfa romeo out of italy. but you best believe, you can't take the italy out of an alfa romeo. ♪ these are the people, who help you stay well. ♪ ♪ searching lower prices, ♪ ♪ and brands you love on the shelves. ♪ behind the counter, or in the aisles,

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he was the director for european affairs for the united states national security council. colonel vindman, i know you are on your way to ukraine. so thank you for spending some time with us on the phone. >> thanks, always happy to join you nicolle. if you are in your old job, you would be burning the midnight oil, trying to figure this out. tell us what you would be wanting to know, or what you might know that isn't obvious to us? >> i would be looking for indications and warnings that this is really going to hold, or whether we are going to see another flame up. and frankly, spill over into broader violence. don't get me wrong, there has been violence that has come with prigozhin's claims to shoot down of about 70 aircrafts, helicopters, and planes. there hasn't been that much blood spilled. so the first thing that is the immediate question is this does this deal hold. could prigozhin return his troops back -- does he go to belarus? does the minister of defense,

shrug you, or chief of the general staff that -- part of the deal and get removed. the next thing would be starting to do some deeper defending, this is what the national security council probably already plans for. or at least should have, in part. which, is what happens next? we have now entered a very, very delicate portion in russia's scaling war in ukraine. it's going to be increasingly erratic and potentially there will be a lot more infections in fighting. it wasn't just prigozhin wagner troops. there seem to be some, at least tentative, ten u.s. support from other elements within the security establishment. those are going to have to be rooted out. we are in a very, very delicate, scary time. at the same time, ukrainians are likely seizing the opportunity, and likely making significant gains. this is an opportunity to help wind down this war relatively quickly. fully enable ukraine to have a

victory through all the resources they need. i guess we don't have a -- war with this high degree of instability in the system. i think those are the things that first come to mind. >> colonel vindman, how credible is the kremlin's statement issued through russian state media, that amnesty would be offered to prigozhin? and that his troops who didn't take up arms would be folded into the russian military? eight hours ago he called them, describe it as treason. >> that seems highly unrealistic. we are not clearly seeing everything that is happening behind the curtain. i think prigozhin likely, you know, demanded -- he had a critical position of strength. he demanded that shoigu and gerasimov, be removed and replaced with competent generals. he likely demanded the freedom of operation for the wagner forces, and suffered in a part of the ministry of defense.

those elements of the field don't make sense of it. part of that view would be that putin did offer him -- belarus, some sort of amnesty. and give prigozhin temporary shelter inside belarus. even that is a bit farfetched that he would allowed this situation to stand. -- to working in power and regimes to that ability. it's frankly impossible that putin's going to let him get away. he's notoriously vindictive. going after intelligence officers that have gone against russia before, poisoning him. -- the infants -- bunch of different things. prigozhin, he's not likely to walk away from this. >> colonel vindman, what is the psychological, and operational opportunity that ukraine has right now. >> so from a practical level,

prigozhin [inaudible] even though is for a short period of time, the operational headquarters of this war effort. that's where the stock reside, that coordinates all of the [inaudible] . everything from logistics to the level to fire plane strikes and artillery, and all these types of things. that has been disrupted. there is a fairly significant level of chaos, as to who's in charge, that's going to have to shake out over the next couple of days. people don't know, that they can count on weapon systems or if these weapons can be brought to bear. i think one of the biggest stones that the russians have as they have tens of thousands of troops, even if they return to bases, they can't be trusted to stay there. they're going to need some sort of security element. so in a difficult situation, russia really doesn't have a huge amount of actual

resources. they're going to have to buy them to secure wagner. it just makes the situation for ukraine a little bit easier. they could seize the momentum, the high morale on the ukrainian side. the disastrous morale on the rest inside. frankly, make some pretty significant gains. that's what i expect to see. ins. >> alex, could you just, looking back over the course of russia's disastrous efforts in ukraine, how much of what went wrong, and what went right, breaks down between the russian military and the wagner group? can you just sort of delineate who is in charge of what? >> sure, it's a little bit opaque. part of it drives from prigozhin, he was not receiving adequate support for tens of thousands of troops suffering for buckman, suffered tens of thousands of casualties because of the inadequate support he got from the minister of defense and the way that russia

in general has been connecting this war. they have, probably when the tougher sector was responsible for an offensive that the russians were conducting over the course of the winter. they were the only sector that made any gains. these are hardened troops that, it's a combination of special ops -- ex military special operations forces. airborne forces. a whole lot of russian prisoners, that have been hardened in either years of experience in wars in the middle east and africa, or in this war in ukraine, fighting in his very, very tough sector. the rest of the picture that russia had the rest of the battlefield, the vast majority of the frontline, and didn't manage to make any gains over the course of their offensive. wagner gets a lot of credit for that. one other thing i'd just like to make a point about, this is an enormously important period in this war.

an enormous amount of instability in the system. this is, kind of a -- for the russian war effort inside ukraine. therefore, it's enormously important for the u.s. and in u.s. national security. i know you are aware of this, but i think very very critical is senator tougher ville. -- even holding out the promotions of hundreds of hundreds of officers. we are in a very challenging national security environment. it is abhorrent that one senator, for his own political force settling, just the points he makes, basically over the issue of freedom of choice for women and services for women, is holding up the promotion for hundreds and hundreds of armed officers. totally unacceptable, and frankly, extremely offices to -- >> he's invited rebukes, privately and publicly from everyone from senior republican

elected officials to senior pentagon officials. it's an important reminder of the stakes of nothing with u.s. national security. lieutenant colonel alexander vindman, thank you very much for joining us by phone on your way to ukraine. we'll check in with you this week. police, those of you watching at home, don't go anywhere. we will continue our live breaking news coverage on the mercenary rebellion in russia. which appears to be de-escalating, for now. there's much more, don't go anywhere. anywhere verizon! where you can get the incredible iphone 14 pro max on us with myplan. so you get exactly what you want and only pay for what you need. act now and get iphone 14 pro max on us when you switch. for a limited time only. it's your verizon. [city ambience sounds] [car screech] [car door slam] [camera shutter sfx] introducing ned's plaque psoriasis. [camera shutter sfx] he thinks his flaky, red patches are all people see. otezla is the #1 prescribed pill to treat plaque psoriasis. [ned?] it can help you get clearer skin

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that russia will drop its criminal case against yevgeny prigozhin, the leader of the wagner group. which has now called off its march towards moscow. an incredible turn of events, eight hours ago putin accused him of treason. residents in russia's capital city have been on high alert all day. even being advised to stay home for their safety. but now we know more about why these mercenaries called off their armed revolt. let's bring in lieutenant

general, -- former deputy commander of u.s. european command. and msnbc military analyst. and julia ioffe, puck washington post bonded. julia, i've been tracking you and tracing you and your appearance today. and wanted to talk to you when i saw this news break. please help us understand what makes vladimir putin go from accusing someone of treason to doing what it seems like an amnesty deal, several hours later. how much leverage was he being held to? do you think this holds? >> it's really hard to say. i think a lot of people, including a lot of russian watchers are really confused right now. because this is quite the plot twist. it was remarkable to watch yevgeny prigozhin's mosque march on moscow today. he met no resistance. it's wild. he met no resistance. putin has built up this

infamous praetorian guard, especially around moscow. it seemed like either his fighters were going to, productions fighters were going to walk into this buzzsaw, or they would be like a hot knife through butter. maybe he was told that, look, you will all be slaughtered outside of moscow. so stop now. you can escape to belarus with your life in your hands. but again, we know that putin is notorious for holding grudges. especially against people he dreams traders. especially people who were close to him, and flipped against him. or people in the security services who flipped. those people are often hunted down years later so, you know, escaping to belarus does not seem exactly foolproof for prigozhin. it is essentially at this point a satellite of russia. it could easily be reached their. as for why he took this amnesty deal when he was within striking distance of the

capitol, he seemed to have putin on a backfoot. even now he has exposed tremendous weakness and fissures in the russian government. again, everyone thought russia was so heavily armed, that you couldn't get anywhere in there. and he, again, he walked -- he got within 100 something miles of moscow. completely unopposed with no resistance. even if he takes the amnesty deal now, we can't un-see what we all just saw. >> general twitty, this is the part of the story, and i'm glad to hear that russia experts are doing a bit of head-scratching as well. that doesn't always at a. all that we've learned over the last brutal year and a half about putin in ukraine is that ukraine's territory was too close to align itself with the west. he's got one of his military lieutenants now, who has turned

on him and is marching to within 120 miles of moscow. what do you make of what we are not seeing? >> absolutely there is a period here of uncertainty. this is the most vulnerable period, in my opinion. if you take a look at this, there is two big things that are glowing red now within russia. number one there's distrust from the putin administration all the way down to the troops in the trenches. there's a lack of morale throughout as well. and there is a lack of teamwork throughout as well. so when you put all of that together, you can't trust, on your left, on your right, or wherever they may be in russia. whether or not you are going to be totally behind this war. that is what we are seeing here. it was an indicator, when you saw the wagner group headed to moscow.

no civilians stopped them. russian military didn't stop them. so what does that tell us? i think what we are going to find is the west including the pentagon, to include our intelligence agency, they are going to be dissecting this to see what it really says about this particular maneuver. the other thing is this gives the ukrainians an opportunity to continue to drive that wedge. to drive the wedge in the information campaign, about the distrust, the lack of moral, and the lack of teamwork throughout russia. i think that is what we should be looking at. >> general twitty, one of the things russian state media put out at the top of the hour was that the wagner troops who did not take up arms would be folded into the russian military. that seems implausible. at best. and combustible at worst. what do you make of what you are hearing from russian state

media? >> well, you hit the perfect word. combustible. i get back to this distrust thing. when you, in the heat of battle, you need to know that the person to your left and right, you can trust and depend on. there's no way that the russian soldier will trust anyone from the wagner group. i think it will be the same going the other way with the wagner group not trusting the russians. i think there's been too much rhetoric, and too much infighting within both of these organizations, to bring them together at this point. so this idea of holding it the wagner group into the army, i think it is a combustible ingredient. s a >> julia, what are your warg indicators? what are you watching to see tomorrow morning rush a time? who are you looking to sort of speak out, and what would be a

sign of putin's continued weakness there? >> it's interesting that so many people, so many members of the security council, so many permanent members of the russian state propaganda apparatus kept their piece today. didn't say anything. what i'm going to be looking for is to see how the russian military continues to perform without wagner. i think what's interesting is that this all began because prigozhin was saying that the military, the russian defense ministry, wanted to drive -- and fold them into the defense ministry. he marches on moscow, seemingly chokes at the last minute, and now parts of wagner are going to be folded into the defense ministry. something is not adding up here. i can't see how this quite holds. one of the regions prigozhin was able to hold on as long as

he did, to have his private army as long as he did, to criticize critical leadership as long as he did, was because his fighters, -- his fighters were conform to the best. there were some of the best performing fighters in ukraine. the heat they gave putin one of his only military victories in ukraine in the last many many months. now without those fighters, who were quite loyal, quite motivated. and again, loyal to prigozhin, as we saw. what this showed also is that again, prigozhin's fighters were the only ones that had the stomach and the heart to fight. everybody else just melted away. the russian ministry of defense, as prigozhin marched on moscow. what is going to happen no longer that they're in the fight and led by their beloved leader, to whom they are so loyal? what happens? russian soldiers want to even stay in this fight?

i just think there is so much uncertainty as to what happened today. what was in that deal? and what things look like going forward. >> that's so interesting. general twitty, a military expert positive to me -- just what julie is explaining. he's on the battlefield leading his men. he saw, he saw them stacked the bodies. he saw the horrors of the incompetence of the way the war has been conducted by vladimir putin, and his military officials. does the west, does ukraine and nato make a different calculation about the ability of russia to combat ukraine's latest counter offensive? it hasn't gone well at any point. but how much weaker is the russian military without the wagner group? >> while they are weaker, and

quite frankly the wagner group is better than any of the russian soldiers that we've seen to date. so putting them in a fight against bakhmut helped out russia significantly. russian forces alone, you look at kyiv, you look at kyrsten, you look in the south, there, kharkiv in the east. failure across the board for russian troops. so the success goes to the wagner group. without putting them in the fight, they will be significantly reduced. but what i will tell you, is that if you look at the way the russians are currently laid out in the south right now. across 600 miles in the south in a defense where they've been, in many cases, 14 years in the nest. and across the rest of the front, they've been there for over a year. so there are significant duggan.

they have an advantage of the ukrainians right now. but not a significant advantage where the ukrainians could not overtake them, and win this fight. but it's going to take a long hard fight before they're able to do that. >> julia, someone positive that putin looks strong by going on tv and accusing someone who looks like he's at a central casting of treason. but others have said that, you know, more to your point, to be humiliated publicly, and internationally, is the stuff of his worst nightmares. what is your analysis on that debate? >> absolutely. i think it's the latter. he has been terrifying the west with his threats about russian military might. russian nuclear might. about his total control of the country. he has convinced pretty much everybody in the west about how much he has consolidated power. not just in the last ten years, but especially in the last year and a half since the war began.

what we saw today is that he was a paper tiger going up in flames. like that. again, this column of troops took over the southern command from which so much of the war in ukraine has been managed, without firing a shot. they marched within striking distance of moscow, other capital, without any opposition really. without any resistance. so does putin control anything? who controls anything in russia? is he no longer the arbiter? he looks much, much weaker. sure, he was able to wriggle out of this one in the end. but he does not [inaudible] >>, general twitty, i want to ask you about that. if you have a split screen about the debacle that was russia's military's convoy to kyiv, with all the abandoned

tanks on the side of the road and contrast that with what julia is describing. which is the orderly unchallenged convoy to moscow, there is no comparing that. and no denying that the world has now seen the fecklessness of the russian military, and the efficiency of the wagner group. >> i would agree with you there. i think the russian military is in total disarray. and russia is a disaster right now. on the world stage, by the way. they look back here, a year and a half ago. russia had his status across the world. they have shown themselves to be a disaster across all fronts now. so president putin's reputation has definitely been tarnished. the russian military, where we all thought they were ten feet tall, they've definitely been tarnished. so, they have nothing to show for their actions in ukraine, but the fact that they are

sitting right now in this total embarrassment on the russian federation. >> go ahead, julia. >> sorry, i was just going to say that the whole point of any government, especially and authoritarian one, is that you have a monopoly on force. he has shown that not only does he not have a monopoly on force, but the forces he has are not very effective. either at abroad or at home, in terms of protecting the homeland. so he looks tremendously damaged, injured, and weekend. >> which means the coming hours and days will be nothing short of riveting. we will continue to call on both of you. lieutenant general stephen twitty, and julia ioffe. thank you both so much for spending time with us. our chief foreign affairs correspondent, andrea mitchell, will join us next with her read on what we are watching unfold in russia. please don't go anywhere. anywhere

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russia has the attention of the world, and its leaders today. after a series of crises that has everyone on edge in the region and beyond. president joe biden spoke with his counterparts in the uk, france, and germany, to discuss this potential threat to vladimir putin and his government. joining us now to talk about all of it, the best source person on our team, nbc's chief foreign affairs correspondent andrea mitchell. she's also the host of andrew mitchell reports right here on msnbc. andrea, i talk to folks this morning that said this will not answer some of the questions we hope it answers. such as where are the fissures in putin's support? how deep are they? but it may pose a new host of questions, namely in russia's ability to wage war in ukraine. what are you hearing? i know you always hear more and better stuff than all the rest of us combined. >> no, you have very well put it. first of all, they are being

very careful not to weigh in on what is an internal affair. they are being very careful not to take sides, as you know. secretary blinken was calling the g7. the president was calling his allies. the uk, france, germany, today. often his counterparts, blinken calling the officials in ukraine. all of that was going on, the president delayed his a departure for camp david, obviously. they put out a statement the only statement they cut out was -- they have not seen any movement. they've got standpoints. here's the bottom line, no one, and our law lies -- our closest allies, no one knows how this is going to play out. we saw the stunning speech, i was up watching it live, i've never seen anything like that in the 25 years of vladimir putin. never interrupting regular programming.

speaking to the russian people and the military forces. acknowledging this clip challenge to his leadership. for now, we don't know yet whether this compromised by lukashenko will hold. we don't know what concessions, even if any, were given to prigozhin to get him to do a one 80 and turn back. he was only a few hours from moscow. -- that said, putin is not giving up the stand. there is just no way in vladimir putin's constitution that he's going to let this kind of insubordination stand, one way or the other, on working closely with the fsb. still unclear manned of the military, but this is not going to end up being some sort of retaliation against prigozhin. we don't know the fullest extent of course of whether or not prigozhin has dissuaded them to get rid of his enemies in the military, in the kremlin

military defense forces. of shoigu and gerasimov. that's why they're being very careful. and not saying anything, even on the background. usually we don't see the military officials say, because they really don't know. they don't want to be seen as weighing in. a couple of things are very clear. wall street journalist first reported, i think this is true, they are not going to do anything to upset the balance, or the imbalance right now. so they were planning separate sanctions against the wagner group, this could've come as early as next week. that's probably on hold right now. they don't want to see -- to be seen putting their thumb on the scale in any way. they're not surprised that erdogan, turkey called in to mediate earlier, because he's already traveling the west and russia. working both sides, not joining in the nato sanctions against russia. it's not clear that he had any more effect. lukashenko might be the real winner here, he's always been a

-- to putin, really. now maybe standing up and showing that he's a player. it remains to be seen. >> one thing our friend -- tweeted was that there was a possibility that the internet would be shut down tonight for several hours in moscow. she made the point that this is the closest that the war has come to russians living in moscow. and that while putin has maintained a pretty high level of support in the country, the war, by and large, is going to wage far away in ukraine. but now here it is, literally on his doorstep. what do you hear about folks watching that part of the putin puzzle? >> absolutely. that is something they would be watching very closely. we don't know yet how this is going to affect the war. zelenskyy has acknowledged that the war is not going -- the counteroffensive is not going as well as they wanted. he says it's been very tough. the russian defenses are deep, three layers deep in some

cases. does this internal fighting mark to zelenskyy's advantage? or does putin feel he's got to show his power and do something with his air power. carpet bombing. i mean, he's got power. he's got missiles and fighter jets. bombers. he can do some terrible things to ukraine, to try to show his muscle right now. >> our friend barry mccaffrey tweeted something along the lines of what you're talking about, that within 90 days, putin can't let this down. he predicted that something as mild, perhaps, of an interrogation and investigation, and perhaps the murder of prigozhin would take place. i'm guessing that even belarus probably isn't safe for someone who's humiliated vladimir putin on the international stage. >>, well putin is -- his kgb back round and the fsb as the successor.

we've known that he's behind several assassinations already. so, -- other turncoats and all sides. i don't think anyone is safe right now, except lattimer pond is behind the walls of the kremlin. >> right, there's probably a reason. he doesn't go out very much. right, right not outside. let me just ask you personally, we've all covered some pretty extraordinary international events. this one is, the government will not acknowledge being surprised by it. i wonder if you have any insight into that. it is something you don't see very often, and that is putin's russia, the head of the wagner group, one of his great military allies marching toward him and against him. >> no, it's a credible. i was up -- i'm actually in aspen, color audio. i was interviewing dr. vivek --

on how to be kinder and gentler, and deal with loneliness and isolation. that was my mission this morning. i think -- and how they raise our kids. in the world of social media, and the way that gun violence affects us. so this is the last thing i expected to be doing all night, is watching vladimir putin. and seeing him go against, seeing his -- prigozhin was like the point of us here a lowbrow and africa and syria. projecting putin's foreign policy. and has been doing for a while. has been following the conflict. but i don't think -- i don't think they saw this coming. they saw these tensions, whether they thought it would become a march towards moscow and other suppression's actually. >> andrea mitchell, it's unbelievable. the pictures, they've run over and over again. they don't get old.

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