good evening and welcome to ayman let's reset and assess where we are at the beginning of this second hour. tonight, we're following a pivotal turning point in the war in ukraine, an internal military rebellion in russia. -- leader of the brutal wagner military group, yevgeny prigozhin. it comes just days after

prigozhin accused russian defense minister sure gate shoigu of ordering a rocket strike on wagner's camps. in ukraine, but hours later after reportedly traveling some 120 miles outside of moscow, the wagner group leader ordered his forces to halt their march on the capital city, and return to their camps. in a post on telegram, prigozhin said the move was done in order to avoid russian bloodshed. now, this follows an announcement from belarus that the russian ally and neighbor had negotiated a deal to de-escalate the situation. kremlin spokesperson dimitri peskov provided some details of the compromise. russia's criminal case against prigozhin, that would be closed and he would go into exile and remain in belarus. moreover, wagner fighters who participated in today's offense will not be prosecuted. now, before we begin our reporting coverage for the hour, we want to give you some more context on this group, the

wagner group. it is important to russia, its importance to the fighting in the war in ukraine and why this is such a consequential and stunning series of developments. you see, over the last year, as russia suffered heavy battlefield losses, moscow has become increasingly dependent on the wagner group to carry out putin's war efforts in ukraine. but, the mercenary armies reach extends far beyond russia and certainly beyond ukraine. prigozhin often cult putin chef, because his former catering business routinely want contracts to cater russia state events. formed the wagner group back in 2018. the -- resource, using it for the first time that same year in the illegal annexation of crimea. putin would go on to use the military group to waive -- without ever needing to utilize his actual military forces. indeed, wagner has wreaked havoc all around the globe.

yes, in ukraine where we know, but of course, in places like syria, libya, the central african republic, mozambique, just to name a few. and just last month the u.n. report concluded that the wagner group was responsible for slaughtering some 500 people in a multi-village. the mercenaries engaging in both torture and rape of civilians. in ukraine specifically, 50,000 wagner force made a huge role in russia's efforts to capture the city of bakhmut. the battle for bakhmut was the bloodiest phase of the war, residential buildings, cultural sites, medical facilities were all routinely targeted. u.s. officials have been to -- for engaging in widespread and systemic crimes against humanity, many of those atrocities were actually being committed by wagner mercenaries in the name of the russian military. that's all that we know right now. there is a lot more that we don't know, like whether all of --

prigozhin's troops will obey his orders and stand down, whether this rip within the kremlin, and how importantly, could all of this rebellion and fighting inside of russia impact the war in ukraine. let's get the very latest on the situation with nbc news chief court despondent richard engel. richard, how has the kremlin reacted to this? i alluded to dimitri peskov, talk to us broadly speaking about how they reacted to the past 24 hours. do they think wagner's groups retreat could mean a crisis is averted, or do they think that this could just be them buying some time for some more hormonal in the weeks and months ahead? >> no well certainly a kind of crisis has been averted. where we are now, compared to where we were 12 hours ago are completely different places. 12 hours ago it looked like a

armed convoy was headed toward moscow, governors, regional governors in russia were telling people to stay off the main roads. armored vehicles were in moscow, according to reporting -- nbc reporting out of washington. the nuclear sites were still under the governments control. but, key installations were being protected. so, half of the day ago, the situation looked very different. and clearly moscow was very nervous that this armed aggressive battle hardened mercenary army had already taken over one city, and was heading toward the capital. and there were reports, a lot of them unconfirmed, very difficult to get information out of russia in general, especially during a time of crisis, that putin had gone into hiding. that his whereabouts were unknown. now, according to prigozhin,

according to the kremlin, some sort of deal has been reached. this crisis breaking point moment has been averted. the that exact terms of the deal are still unclear, but it seems like there are no longer mercenary armies rushing toward moscow, and putin doesn't seem like he is about to face an arms insurrection in the capital. but, what this means for the future war in ukraine, what this means for the future of wagner, what it means for wagner's vast pirates empire, which you just outlined, are still open questions. and probably still open questions that yevgeny prigozhin himself is wondering about. you spoke earlier with -- and one of the world's great experts on russia. and she said that this seemed like an emotional response from yevgeny prigozhin. that he was outraged, that he

was furious, that he decided in a moment of anger to throw down the gauntlet and sent his troops into battle and drive to moscow, so that he could show his displeasure. he is known to be a violent person, and a person with a violence temper. so perhaps that's what's happened. his troops have been fighting in ukraine, whether you like them or not, they have been fighting a very hard. they have lost thousands, some say tens of thousands of fighters. and they have not been supported by the ministry of defense. they haven't, according to prigozhin, bid given weapons. they haven't been given radios. they haven't been given air support. they haven't been given communications. these mercenary forces were always designed to be cannon fodder. but according to prigozhin, they weren't even given the minimal amount of equipment that they would need to carry

out some sort of war. and, out of frustration, he decided to express his displeasure by marching toward the kremlin and bringing this matter directly to vladimir putin. and apparently the leader of belarus talked him down, under the condition that he leave the country and continue his overseas operation from his base in belarus. for ukraine, at least in the short term, this is very good news. because, i can tell you from speaking with senior ukrainian officials, they did not like having to confront wagner. it was different challenge, fighting the regular soldiers of the russian army, who were conscript soldiers, generally. also poorly equipped, many of them getting pressed into service. rounded up in their homes, given draft orders, given very

little training and had been told to go off and fight in ukraine for a war that was poorly understood, based on vladimir putin's ideology and this very flimsy excuse that they are somehow fighting neo-nazis in ukraine, even though they're not neo-nazis in ukraine, and the president of the country, zelenskyy, is jewish. and he has nothing to do with near nazism. wagner troops were different. some of them wanted to fight, because prigozhin gave them the option. they were prisoners. he said, if you fight and you don't try to escape, you will be given pardons. you will be given your freedom. so they had a motivation. others were fighting because if they were treated, they would be shot. so they had either a motivation because they were afraid if they retreated they would be shot in the back, or they were motivated because if they survived the battle, they would be given a new lease on life.

there were a more difficult enemy, they were a more determined enemy, and even if the ministry of defense wasn't helping them, they put up a formidable challenge. so, this does create something of an opportunity for ukraine, just as it is in the early phases of its long anticipated counteroffensive. the future for yevgeny prigozhin, much less clear. will he survive? is he being shipped off to belarus so that one day he can be pushed out of a window or poisoned, as is often the fate of many people who have defied the kremlin? whether it's a year from now, two years from now, five years from now kremlin assassins can be very -- is unclear. or will he be allowed to continue running his pirates empire in places like africa, which benefits him, it benefits wagner, and some of that money also trickles off to the inner circle, the elites inside the kremlin.

so, a major development. a major change of events that has happened over the last 12 hours or so. >> nbc's richard engel. richard, you have given us a lot to break down and to discuss. the perfect person for that is michael mcfaul, former u.s. ambassador to russia and analyst. join the conversation, colin clarke director of policy and research at -- ambassador mcfaul, you heard my colleague richard engel lay out a lot for us to break down. so, i want to start kind of broadly speaking, which is how unnerved is a vladimir putin right now? how unnerved is the entire kremlin, after the events of the last 24 hours? before we get into what happens next, they must be looking at this and saying, what in the hell just happened? this andi think that's exactly . that's exactly what they are saying. they're worried that they didn't have good intelligence about what happens. they must be horrified that mr. prigozhin marched to rostov and

captured that city. one of the ten biggest cities in russia with no resistance at all. and he was on his way to moscow with zero resistance. remember, putin, while that was happening went on national television and told his entire country that he is a traitor, prigozhin is a trader, and they're going to deal with him, squish him and defeat him and destroy him. there would be no soft landing for him. and then hours later, literally just hours later, you've got to deal with this guy. that must make him feel very uneasy. he must have looked at what he had in terms of his chances of stopping him militarily, and decided that he couldn't go down that path. he had to cut this deal. but that makes him look very weak. not just in the eyes of me, but i'm sure in the eyes of many people inside russia itself. >> so colin, as richard alluded to and you may have seen in the previous hours, speaking to -- and there's two schools of thought here and i want to get

yours on. this is yevgeny prigozhin some sort of strategic mastermind here? or was this, as marshall was describing him, perhaps a moment of rage and temperament that caught the russian establishment off-guard? it's a lose lose situation for russia, as ambassador mcfaul just outlined, but specifically precocious. how do you characterize him in the last 24 hours or so? >> well, thanks for having me. let me say, it's an honor to be on with ambassador mcfaul. it's been a bliss of moral clarity throughout most of this conflict. i think in terms of prigozhin, no. he's not some sort of strategic genius. we often ascribe these kind of superlatives to the russian side. vladimir putin is playing seven dimensional chess. clearly he's not. i think prigozhin is a hothead, he's a bit of a thug, and it doesn't take much to outplay putin, apparently. i think putin's strength is reaching -- he clearly needs wagner, and

wagner is more popular than people realize. it's been used as a force multiplier in ukraine, even though it's been a source of cannon father and kind of thrown into the meat grinder. i think what this tells you is russia doesn't really have a strategy. they've gone to this ham-handed, they've taken their usual draconian approach, and it's backfires. and i think what this tells me is the united states and its allies need to keep doing what we've been doing, which is providing material and moral support, because it's working. we're starting to see fissures in russian command and control in the last 24 and 24 hours is clear evidence of that. >> ambassador, what do you make of this announcement from -- huge we did earlier, i suspect this is far from over. putin cannot accept an insurrectionist. prigozhin cannot accept the possibility of being eliminated if he lets his guard down post moving to belarus. wagner contingents smell blood

and money and aren't happy with this outcome. you know, a lot of different pieces depending on what angle you look at. but to some extent, this is far from over. >> it's far from over, because prigozhin is not in jail. he hasn't been eliminated on the battlefield. he is going to belarus as a hero, and what colleges said i think is really important for people to understand. i underestimated even just a few days ago. prigozhin is looking very popular right now. his soldiers were cheering when they left rostov. when the police came back, they were ridicules. that is very dangerous for mr. putin. and what i'll be interested to see is when he goes to belarus, is he going to retire like mr. -- for incidents? or when he was overthrown in 2010, he went there and you've never heard from him. all will be surprised --

that's mr. prigozhin's plan. and particular, i will be watching to see, does he keep active on his telegram channels? because he has a big loudspeaker now with a big following, and that is very dangerous for mr. putin. >> yeah. collin, there is no way that vladimir putin can except yevgeny prigozhin, just chilling out in belarus, talking to millions of people on telegram. and yes, it is anecdotal what the ambassador was talking about, but as his troops were leading, people were trying to shake his hand. people were trying to take pictures on wagner equipment. and that's not something that sits well with vladimir putin. >> look, i think as my colleague said, a lot of what prigozhin talked about resonated with ordinary russians. he talked about corruption, he talked about the elites kind of bleeding the state, and i think that's true for all of us who study this conflict and know the way that the kremlin works. there's a bit of sympathy there

for wagner, who has been thrown into the meat grinder in ukraine. but is also a global enterprise. and to me, this is stuff that i've been writing about for the last year or year and a half. actually, speculated is all the kind of these diatribes that prigozhin's been releasing. what is the angle here? is there some sign of objective and is it to get wagner moved out of ukraine, which i don't think is their advantage fighting this very unconventional war against a really motivated ukrainian military. and to go back to what wagner's -- what their specialty is, which is expeditionary operations in fragile states, protecting military war loads, and making money through these resources, whether it's gold, diamonds, protecting oil and gas installations in syria and libya. which also benefit the kremlin. this helps them evade sanctions,

so look. if you were to ask me six or eight months ago i would've said wagner needs the kremlin more, but now that this relationship is really starting to think twice. i think that moscow really needs what wagner does. >> please stick around, we're going to continue this conversation after the break. we will drive more into how this could affect -- embolden russian opposition leaders in the country. stay with. us ay with. us stock. so caramel swirl is always there for the taking.

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have warned that the prigozhin led rebellion risks pushing russia into a civil war. in a televised statement addressing these advances from within, putin said the wagner group's actions were a quote, stab in the back to russia and its people. so how could this infighting impact putin's hold on the country and his hold in ukraine? -- are back with me. collin, you've been following the wagner group's movements over the past year and earlier this month you wrote about how these boiling tensions between prigozhin and the russian military could signal that putin is losing his grip on power. explain that to us. is putin's hold on russia in fact slipping, did the military overreach when they were trying to bring wagner in under its control, under its chain of command? was this really about ammunition, as prigozhin was saying, and i'm throwing a lot

to you there, but give us the rift that was unfolding between wagner and prigozhin, aunt sergei shoigu and the russian military. >> look, i'll say this. you know, the beef between wagner and show you, in particular, dates back many years. back to syria if you follow wagner's intervention in syria, that kind of conflict, that's where it began. and so it's really just continue to mushroom over the years. and putin has had really a lot of trouble, really mediating between these individuals. between the likes of prigozhin and on the other hand show you and gerasimov. senior russian military officials. but the problem is that russia is addicted to mercenaries. it's an essential force multiplier for the kremlin, and they can't frankly carry out their foreign policy without the wagner group. and then that's clear. and i think there's two things that come from that. one, the gallery of nations,

the iran's, the serious, the north koreans of the world, they bet on the wrong horse and that's never been more clear. and i think the last few days have now proven that. and you know, in capitals in damascus and iran, i'd say in beijing as well. and the other thing is that we need to stop including russia in this conversation about great power competition. this isn't a great power. great powers don't need to go to prisons to conscript felons to fight on the battlefield. so, i think russia is clearly a second tier power now at best, as a nuclear weapons and a lot of military reserves. but we are in a real -- what we are seeing is russia's getting ready to assume a junior partner role to china. and we are entering a totally different face in my opinion in international relations. >> ambassador, i want to give you a chance to respond to that. you were talking earlier on this network and i took note of it when you were saying what

the u.s. can do diplomatically with some of these countries that collin was just talking about, particularly china and what this potentially means for a strategic opening for the united states. your thoughts on collin's assessment, with other countries and russia being downgraded to a second to your power? being downin the immediate run, we haa national security interest. the united states in my view, of trying to isolate vladimir putin. and i think this gives us an opening to make a better argument. to countries like china, like india in the middle east, in africa, let's be honest. we haven't been winning that arguments in a lot of those regions of the world. they've been sitting on the sidelines. to me, putin's war in ukraine is an obvious war of neo-imperialism. it's a war of colonization, it's a war of annexation, but when i'm on zoom calls with people in those parts of the worlds that i just talked about, they don't see it that. way -- mr. modi made that clear in

washington. so i think this is a moment to say, even if you don't accept our analytic framework, realize that this is dangerous. the longer this war goes on, the week or the russian government, putin's regime becomes. and we don't have an interest in seeing chaos and disillusion there, so put more pressure on putin to end the war. that would be, if i were back in the government still, i would be quietly trying to make that message, especially in beijing. >> let me ask you really quick, ambassador mcfaul. this may be better for a military mind, but not to say that you're not a military mind. but were you at all surprised just how strange it was for wagner to take the city of rostov without much blowback? i mean, is that's how russian cities, they have not been fortified in the year or so at that this war in ukraine has been happening? that's mobility in and out of these cities has no forsman's? >> i mean, that's actually not

a military question. that's a political question. i'm glad you asked it. because there was no resistance. and that makes me think that there was much more planning, much more coordination. this wasn't just let's get on the road and see how far we can go. and that also has to make vladimir putin nervous. if you look at this -- the building in washington d.c., a federal office has at least some security. there was no security. that suggests that there was something agreed ahead of time before they got to rostov. >> i'm glad i asked that question. ambassador, a reminder that there is no such thing of a stupid question. ambassador michael mcfaul, colin clark, thank you to the both of you. greatly appreciate it. coming up, president zelenskyy's first reaction to the rebellion in russia. stay with us. stay with us with smoking fast shipping. and wayfair deals so epic...

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with implications for the future of moscow and its war in ukraine. he tweeted out a short while ago today, the world saw that the bosses of russia do not control anything. nothing at all. complete chaos. complete absence of any predictability. zelenskyy also underscored the need for more support for ukraine, as ukrainian officials say they are making progress with their counteroffensive against russia. let's bring in nbc news foreign correspondent matt bradley for us in london. matt, it's good to see you. two military leaders in ukraine, i know you've been there, i know you've spoken to many over the last year and a half. do they see this, or what they see this and assess this as a gift? this rebellion in russia, working out to their strategic advantage on the battlefield? >> well, of course they would probably be a lot more happy if this had succeeded, and if president putin had fallen or if the army had been routed. that didn't happen, and instead we saw prigozhin heading to belarus and basically packing up his guns. but the fact of the matter is

that this really showed a major change in the armor of president putin has been cultivating for 23 years that he's been running the country. so when it comes to public opinion in russia, this isn't probably going to have that much effect on the battlefield, but it will affect how russians view their president. because, there really is -- steeped in conspiracy theories, and have an entirely different look at this. it really is hard to see this as anything else than a massive blow for president putin, his credibility, and for his efforts in ukraine. because remember, the production started this all last night with some very transient criticism as to why putin invaded ukraine. this is something that a lot of russians, despite the controls on the media and the fact that putin and his cronies control a lot of the public messaging, the fact is a lot of russians are going to hear this. and they're going to internalize this and see that a man like prigozhin who has fought so hard on the battlefield, in places like bakhmut, has no questions not just the management of the war,

which he's been questioning for a long time, but also the pretext for which it was started. and that's something that i think a lot of people in ukraine, a lot of the leadership, they're going to be very pleased to see finally that russians are going to be getting a good look, a good close look at some of the arguments against this invasion and why it's not going. we'll see prigozhin trying to advance on moscow, seeing soldiers take positions in central moscow, that's just not good optics. not for putin, and not for anyone. that's going to look really good for people in kyiv. so you can expect they're going to be popping champagne in the government quarter. they're >> not, you have a better pulse on just the day-to-day fighting that is taking place in ukraine. just tell us broadly speaking how things have been playing out over the last couple of months, for viewers who may not have been tracking it and now suddenly are finding ukraine and the war in ukraine thrust back into the headlines, given what has happened in russia. >> well, we're in the midst of a widely, much anticipated counteroffensive by the ukrainians.

and the whole idea here was that the ukrainians had a card to play, but the russians didn't. they had western weapons and western trading from nato countries, including the u.s., the biggest benefactor by far of ukraine and its armed forces. they were expecting for this other foot to drop. they're expecting to deploy their western trained troops on the frontline, man are armed with some of the most sophisticated weapons in existence today. we're talking about weapons from the u.s., some of those major anti tank weapons, and of course, the troop transport vehicles, the broadly's, the markers from germany. and now a major tanks like challengers and others that are basically on route and are now being seen on the battlefield. so, this new offensive, this counteroffensive by the ukrainians, this is putting all of that into action. but so far, it hasn't really pushed the russians back in any huge way. not like it did before, when we saw the russians just beating back from the northeastern city

of kharkiv, and from the southern city of kherson. this was last year, when we saw a humiliating defeats on the battlefield for russians. so far, this counteroffensive by the ukrainians hasn't really reached that level of success. now, we heard from president zelenskyy, of course he had said that things were going well. that the counteroffensive is achieving its goals, but at the same time we've also heard from the russians, and they would say this. both sides would play their roles here. the russians are saying that the counteroffensive hasn't really succeeded in doing anything much at all. it is more -- i would more believe the russians on this side. because it doesn't look as though we've seen much movement on the map. the frontlines haven't really shifted. but we haven't seen the end of this counteroffensive, and ukrainians say that they are still playing their cards. so, when it comes to the role of prigozhin and wagner, they haven't been on the battlefield for the last several weeks. they withdrew from the frontlines after they took bakhmut. and they basically have fallen back.

so, seeing this attempted coup or mutiny, whatever you call it, it's probably not going to have a direct effect on the battlefield, and it's probably not going to open the way for the ukrainian counteroffensive to suddenly see success. >> nbc's matt bradley live for us in london, that it's great to see you, thanks so much for all of that. next, how putin's power struggle could impact his defenders and allies here in america. stay with us. stay with us uh... here i'll take that. -everyone: woo hoo! ensure max protein with 30 grams of protein, one gram of sugar. enter the nourishing moments giveaway for a chance to win $10,000. ♪ i wanna hold you forever ♪ hey little bear bear. ♪ ♪ ♪ i'm gonna love you forever ♪ ♪ ♪ c'mon, bear. ♪ ♪ ♪ you don't...you don't have to worry... ♪ ♪ be by your side... i'll be there... ♪

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my most important kitchen tool? my brain. so i choose neuriva plus. unlike some others, neuriva plus is a multitasker supporting 6 key indicators of brain health. to help keep me sharp. neuriva: think bigger. >> the last 36 hours have built a devastating blow to vladimir putin strongman image here appears weaker now than perhaps ever before. and for his far-right supporters here in america, republicans will have spent years heralding putin as a strong, savvy genius, well today might have come as quite the surprise. joining me now are david coren msnbc analysts in washington bureau chief for mother jones, former democratic congressman donna edwards, it may be a bit of a strange conversation to

have when you are talking about russia and ukraine but given how some republicans of stood by vladimir putin over the last couple of years, it really is going to be interesting to see how they react to those republicans off play devils advocate on putin's behalf, or have defended and praised him for years. is this internal rebellion a big blow to them as well as putin's? >> well it should be but they've been taking this position, irrationally for years now it started with donald trump in 2016 say, putin was a killer but he meant that in a good way and he was brilliant and genius and savvy. he said the same thing about the time in the invasion, steve bannon were saying that they were rooting for putin. they like him because he's not woke, ted cruz before the invasion was saying the russian army is strong and because they don't have diversity the way

the u.s. army does. the u.s. army was too woke, and he was praising the russian army for this. they might have put their chips on the side of putin and they have been muted a little bit because of this horrific genocidal invasion. but, what has happened in the next day makes putin look less like someone you want to emulate than he did prior to this. >> donna, what are your thoughts of how republicans over the last couple of years starting with trump and since have embraced vladimir putin both as a model of being a strong leader and as david was saying, i remember the criticism that the u.s. military said because some of the ads were woken celebrate diversity, the russian military did none of that? >> well, it's hard to know what to call them they are putin identifier's, sympathizers, followers, and following the apologist in chief donald trump, what i noticed today though is that throughout this we've heard comments from a few

member of congress and they have largely been on the side of, you know, trying, thinking about how ukraine should react and the need to reinforce our support for ukraine and the -- and identified the chaos in russia. what we haven't heard and i've been searching, we really haven't heard those republicans who have been in the strong man camp over the last several years, and i think that that is instructed, it will be interesting to see over the next several days of as we learn more about how this unfolded and what the protections are for the future what the republican response will be, but it seems like they've lost their strongman, they have lost their ability to claim that putin is so strong and that the forces that they are fighting against in ukraine are weaker and we should pull out. that does not seem to be an argument that is going to win

the day over the next several weeks. >> dave that i can't get over the fact that the wagner group managed to get so far into russia so quickly, i believe 120 miles or so outside of moscow, does that shatter putin's facade as a strongman? an image, i should add, many republicans have basically played into. >> yes, you know so much of this is going to depend on what we find out in the next couple of days, there will be a continuous rolling thunder of disinformation from many parties, from putin most of all, who somehow will spin this in a way -- the thing that i think is the most important thing here is whether this has any impact on russian popular opinion. it's hard to know that, no independent media there, no independent polling but he has had a firm grip on russian public opinion, and there's

been lots of stories of how they believe his lies about the war and the reason for being there. so that changes a little bit, it creates a much different dynamic. meanwhile, here at home, talking about disinformation, i did see on fox this afternoon, or was it last night? there were several people talking about how this coup from prigozhin, maybe that was united states's prompted, maybe there is a conspiracy. yet again, a matter of involving russia and they are going back to the deep state conspiracy that somehow joe biden did this, maybe to distract, but i don't know? i'm waiting to see -- >> they said that about the submersible as well, that it was a psyops to distract from hunter biden, there is always something, you know, to distract with the biden administration according to the

republicans. donna, speaking about the administration, what is this rebellion about how joe biden has handled the war in ukraine? if you look at the big picture ukraine's winning and it is winning because of the position the united states has taken with its nato allies and partners, slow and steady, calmly over the last year and a half to get us to this point where russia has now had this major setback. but, how would you rate the way that the war has been executed by an american vantage point? >> i think president biden has been consistent in rallying her nato allies, other allies around the world, to provide strong support possible for ukraine, that will continue, i heard -- i listen to the report earlier today, just before we got into this segment, that ukraine is you know, proceeding in the

early days of the counteroffensive. i think what we will see from the biden administration over the coming weeks and days is going back to congress and saying, you know, we are on the right track here, russia's weekend and ukraine continues with its passion and ability to win this fight. there is no reason, no reason at all to pull back because we heard those arguments coming out of some members of congress, particularly among republicans. so, i think that this strengthens president biden's hand. i think he has been consistent in support for ukraine. i think you will see more of that consistency over the coming weeks and months. >> congresswoman donna edwards, david coren always a pleasure, thanks to the both of you. final thoughts from ambassador william on what these developments mean for russia, ukraine and for us here in

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the your racial -- during the clinton administration. before the wagner group mercenaries reversed a march on moscow, you tweeted about the august 1991 coup attack, the regime collapse for months later. you write of the armed mutiny even if it failed it might so weaken putin's regime that it collapses. has, you know, this event or the past 24 hours made it possible or accelerated possibly the demise of vladimir putin? >> first of all putin's stature has diminished over the last year as russia has proceeded to a failed invasion of ukraine. you are right, this failed coup attempt or rebellion is likely to reduce the -- because as they pointed out

before, prigozhin publicly said that the rationale of the kremlin at the military leadership level, those were lies. russia was not going to be attacked by ukraine and nato combined, and the knots is we're not ruling ukraine, so putin situation is perilous, and we're going to have to wait months, maybe even a year or two to see how this plays out. >> how might this play out on the battlefield in ukraine? could it possibly change the calculation for vladimir putin? could the demoralization of russian troops only play to the advantage of the ukrainian counter offensive? how does this go in terms of what happens inside ukraine? >> ukrainian forces have been making probing attacks, not the main force thrust that we are going to see sometime soon, the probing attacks have been an effort to find where the

weaknesses are. but now, in light of this, ukraine may even need more probing attacks because we're likely to see some parts of russian military forces in ukraine be less reliable. leadership may be less solid than before. so, for ukraine, this is really an advantage. the key issue for ukraine will be how best to take advantage of it so that it can cut off the russian leverage to crimea without encouraging any casualties among ukrainian soldiers. >> of course, all of this has implications for the u.s. and nato as well. i want to get your thoughts on that. nato and the ongoing question of ukraine's path to membership have been something that has constantly come up. nato has its annual summit next month in lithuania, the alliance has invited ukrainian pleasant zelenskyy to attend. given this latest event, how do

you think nato member should approach pledging their allegiance to ukraine, because potentially this could be the beginning of the end of vladimir putin, or potentially a few years of instability in russia as a result of what is happening? >> as long as the main fighting continues in ukraine, the alliance probably won't be ready to take ukraine, this will not affect the tremendous large-scale military support that the alliance and its members are providing to ukraine. i think there is a presumption in the alliance, in nato, that once the main wars over ukraine would make a strong member. it now has probably the strongest, certainly the most -- ground force in europe, that will be strength for nato. >> looking ahead ambassador courtney, what are the questions at the front of your mind for the future of russia?

>> in the past, when russia has come across real setbacks, it has often had to equalize to recover, when it lost the crimean war in 1950 they freed the serbs, when they lost to the japanese in 1904, 1905, they had their first constituent assembly. unfortunately too late because -- one or 2 million prisoners were released. when the regime took the country into a dead and when -- he bankrupted the country six years later they brought forth someone else, and someone greater who abolish the communist party. when the correlation of forces have suffered, they have to equalize in order to recover. right now the western sanctions

on russia are tremendous, russia -- the cost of the war for russia is significant. russia is not going to be able to get out of this without some kind of liberalization that will enable russia to write its balance internationally and domestically. >> very optimistic, to see if it pans out, ambassador william courtney thank you for your time in analysis. folks stick with us i'm not going anywhere after a quick break msnbc coverage of the situation in russia continues, i will be joined onset by ali sentiment and as we will have more reporting and analysis, i will see you back here in a moment. moment ♪ ♪ the vehicles are all-electric.

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