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ayman mohyeldin here with alicia menendez. it is 11 i am in new york, six a.m. in moscow, where kremlin officials are no doubt waking up on edge this morning, unsure of what the day might bring. just hours ago -- yevgeny prigozhin ordered his forces to halt their march on to the capital city and return to their bases. it was a stunning about face, considering how quickly provisions trips were advancing towards moscow, and an armed rebellion against the russian government. however, we have learned shortly after that russian ally and neighbor in belarus had negotiated a deal to de-escalate the situation. kremlin spokesperson dimitri peskov provided some details of the compromise that included russia's criminal case against prigozhin would be closed and he would be allowed to go and remain in belarus. moreover, wagner fighters who had participated in the

advancement will not be prosecuted. and late this evening, some new reporting from the washington post is shedding more light on the lead up to the rebellion. apparently, u.s. spy agencies picked up intelligence in mid june indicating that prigozhin was, in fact, planning armed action against the russian defense establishment, and urgently informed the white house and other government agency so that they would not be caught off guard. that is according to several u.s. officials. >> all of this, of course, raises the question, if america knew this was combining coming, why does it appear that russia was caught so flat-footed? indeed, don't mistake these events as any sort of win for vladimir putin. he diverted a crisis in the short term. international security experts say this whole episode has exposed a deep fissures within putin's regime. after all, this rebellion, would putin still have enough support in the kremlin to continue his war in ukraine -- with all the wagner mercenaries follows prigozhin's order and stand down? or would we still see more instability in the coming days?

right now, we have more questions than answers. here to help us, nbc and msnbc foreign correspondent matt bradley. matt bradley, at six a.m. 6:00 a.m. -- one of the conversations they're likely having? >> i think a lot of them are wondering if they are safe, wonder if they can sleep in their own beds the next night. and i think a lot of them are also wondering if vladimir putin now has a massive target on his back. the fact of the matter is, when they remember what happened -- well, now it will be yesterday -- they will remember this climb down, you talked about. the sudden, the abrupt change of tack that prigozhin made, we are heat made in the about-face. that was because of this deal that he had. while it looked like he made a failed co--- a failed insurrection -- it was actually, in many ways, a big win for him. he got off very, very easily. i mean, he was criticizing and raised arms against the russian state. normally, it would be executed

for treason. and putin himself had called him a traitor. but now, it looks as though he is going to avoid any punishment at all and his only punishment is going to be exile in neighboring belarus, which is a russian-speaking country, an ally of russia. so, it really is a new morning for moscow. and all of these leaders are going to be wondering, probably, whether they're colleagues -- whether their compatriots -- might have their own plots in mind. >> you mentioned how this wagner group is an extremely powerful and probably the most powerful of all of the private armies in russia, which is technically illegal to raise a private, army but there are actually quite a few private military's. and these groups and the men who run them -- most of them -- are very wealthy oligarchs and men of influence. they are in positions to maneuver and make their own arrangements, make their own plans, and they have seen one that did not work. but that was not necessarily punished to the full extent of the law. so, a lot of these kremlin

officials are probably going to be wondering if there are other people, waiting in the wings, to make their own moves on the kremlin and on vladimir putin and if this was a greenlight that they needed. guys? >> now, let me ask you about the other side of this coin, which, between russia and ukraine, the war that is taking place there, -- know it very well having spent a lot of time. they are what my ukrainian leaders waking up this morning the making of all the chaos that unfolded over the past 24 hours? could this present them with an opportunity, at least, to change the dynamics on the battlefield? >> yeah, it's a good question, ayman. i think a lot of these men -- and a lot of the people who are running ukraine, the men and women, they are going to be waking, up and they're probably going to be wishing they would be feeling better this morning if the whole thing had gone according to prigozhin's plan, if he had succeeded in his insurrection, if he had sparked a civil war, and, especially, if he had managed to unseat putin and take down the russian government -- that would make for a much better sunday morning.

but, instead, what they are still seeing is a vladimir putin that has been chastened and humbled by events that were, essentially, of his own making. it's vladimir putin who empowered his former confidant yevgeny prigozhin, as you mentioned. and this is something that really just puts a massive chunk -- in putin's arm. or -- russians have grown used to see him as a champion, a muscular man on the world stage, someone who defends russia, its national interests, but also its identity and its culture. and that is why seeing this strongmen step down was a bad optic for vladimir putin. and it is one that is really going to be very welcomed in kyiv. because they have been waiting for the russian public to take a look, a hard look, at the man who is leading them. and now, given the fact that vladimir putin had to make an improvised speech to the nation,

something he rarely, if ever, does in a state of emergency, while facing down an insurrection from one of his most powerful military leaders -- that is not a good look. and it is something that the entire world and russians all saw. so, like i said before, a lot of these russian leaders are probably going to be seeing this as an opportunity. a lot of ukrainian leaders are going to be seeing it as an opportunity as well. but -- mentioned it's this in the last hour. probably won't -- immediate knock on effect on what is going on on the frontlines, on the battlefield. the wagner fighters had already been withdrawn several weeks earlier. so, i don't think we are going to see, suddenly, ukrainian forces in their newly minted counteroffensives deadly breakthrough the russian lines in a way they haven't before. guys? >> nbc's matt bradley. matt bradley, thank you very much for breaking that down for us. joining the conversation now, joel reuben, former secretary -- holden triplett, former director of counter intelligence for the national security council, and william taylor, former u.s. ambassador

to ukraine, an expert panel with us to break it all down. holden, i will start with you, and this new reporting from the washington post that u.s. spy agencies were aware in mid june that prigozhin was plotting a russia uprising. it seems quite remarkable how spot on u.s. intelligence has been throughout almost every stage of this russian war, from anticipating, even before it starts, to perhaps now this revelation from the washington post. what do you make of that development? >> yeah, i think -- denigrate job in terms of -- keeping the penetrations of it that they -- had there -- so they can monitor what's going on at very top level. and as we've seen, putin has very close circle, and so it will be very difficult, at times, to penetrate, that i think to get that type of information. but what i think it tells us is that the u.s. administration -- as they should -- be is highly concerned about what it could mean. i mean, this is not a case where that putin and prigozhin, a good guy versus a bad guy, these are two bad guys. and essentially, what he was

doing was during things up in russia that could cause a lot of chaos. well, it might solve some immediate problems that we have with the war in ukraine, the longer term problems of having chaos in a nuclear armed nations are pretty severe. and so -- obviously that got the attention of the american administration. >> joel, you have been in the room through those conversations where those -- u.s. by agencies pick this up and were quick to tell the, white house to tell other government agencies, which means that there have been conversations happening behind closed doors that we have not known about for good reason. it also is -- that there are conversations happening right now. right? we have heard fairly little from this white house. that is strategic. that is by design. as best you can, give us your sense of the conversations that they are having behind closed doors. >> yeah, alicia, certainly the administration is looking at the fallout, and the day after scenarios that were described by matt. and this is not over. so, certainly, in the near term,

what the administration is doing is engaging our nato allies, our -- nato allies and really -- may understand that, a, we have their back, that we -- assurances to the nato allies and -- shrink there and support, there and sharing of information that we have. and then be b, making sure they have an ongoing operation center, a watch, where they're looking at the developments on the ground because i just don't think that this is over by any stretch. i mean, imagine how humiliating this is for vladimir putin. his -- essentially bailed out by lukashenko, by -- belarus of -- having belarus mediate between two warring russian factions. and so for the administration, and these conversations are -- quiet, they don't want to tip their hand over, they do not want to be seeing as buys-ing any outcome inside of internal russian fighting, but certainly -- wanted to show that allies know that we are there and paying

attention and giving reassurances while this continued -- supporting back ukraine, which clearly, is working and continues apace. >> ambassador taylor, what is the strategic objective for the united states in the short term here? obviously, there may be some in the administration who see this as an opportunity, perhaps maybe some more that are russia hawks. would they see some opportunity worth trying to pursue or worth exporting exploiting or instability more important? hold the ship, stay steady, do not change anything in the u.s. policy towards russia? >> sorry, ayman, i don't think there is an appetite for trying to destabilize the russians. i don't think there is an appetite for trying to prod one way or the other or to put the thumb on when the end of the scale, one side of the scale or the other, on any kind of the battle or the other. that is for the russians to figure out. there is no doubt about that. there is, however, the

opportunity that this chaos presents, which is the opportunity that matt bradley talked about that the iranians might take. there is disarray in the kremlin. and that gives an opportunity for the ukrainians to push what they have been doing and what they have been preparing to do, this counteroffensive, to just try and move the russians, push the russians out of their country. that is an opportunity that presents itself now. >> -- i want to pick up on something that joel reuben said, and it is something that we have heard echoed over and over again which is that this story is just beginning, this story is far from over. from that counter intelligence perspective, what is it that those agencies will be looking for in the next 24 or 48 hours that would be a tell? >> certainly, on the russian side, what they would be doing is they are going to be looking for anyone that was connected with the -- they are going to be looking at families. they will be -- houses. and, in fact, i think it's

highly likely what some of the pressure that -- probably put on for goshen is to go after some of the families of the people who are in the wagner group and ordered to pressure them to stand down. and so, i think, part of this will be sort of winding up anyone who, essentially, said something or -- going against putin or perhaps even state silent during this time. so, i think they're going to be pressuring a lot of the people to come clean this up and -- an opportunity -- on the u.s. side, they are going to absolutely be looking at any kind of opportunities they have to continue to gain information about what is going on at a very top level. it's a very volatile time. it -- may be a period of quiet. but it is really not clear how long that is going to last. again, this is not the end. this will be going on for quite some time. >> joel rubin, does vladimir putin have to clean house, so to speak, in order to retain power? are we going to see a new version of vladimir putin that has to crack down on even more than anything we have seen in

order to silence dissent and send a message that if there is anyone in the wings that is like yevgeny prigozhin, they don't even think about doing something like this? >> well, ayman, i think in theory, that sounds accurate. but really -- house with? there are so many potential enemies just over the horizon right now, surrounding vladimir putin. sharks are circling these waters. and cleaning house, it is, since may very well create new enemies, like the prigozhin type. but a mimic of sorts to potentially threaten putin's -- as well. so, yes, in theory he would want to clean house. but what he has right now is a strategic problem, which is that he is mired in and endless war in ukraine that russia is losing, that there is more advanced weaponry coming in from the united states and other allied countries into ukrainian hands, and the militia, the mercenaries that he hired to do this job don't

want to fight this war anymore. and so he is in this quagmire. those are militias are turning their guns on him, and if he were to clean house and some high somehow try to hit the restart button, it's quite possible he would be gone as well. because i am sure he does not have many very close or viable allies right now in the kremlin. >> ambassador, there is, of course, the role of diplomats here both here and abroad. what are the high level conversations that are happening among allies in the next 24, 48 hours? and in the two week plus lead up to the nato summit? what are the conversations that need to happen? >> conversations in -- you are right to raise the -- summit. that is the decision that the nato leaders are going to be making about european security, in particular about where does ukraine fit into this european security. and one of the big issues for nato to decide in vilnius is

whether and how to indicate to ukraine that they will eventually become a member of nato. and that is the decision that is being discussed for the last couple of months. it probably will be discussed up until the last minute. they won't -- conclusion, an answer, a communiqué that they can all agree on until the end. but they will be looking for some way to signal both to ukraine and to russia that european security needs to have some stability and ukraine stability is important. and so, a guarantee of some kind for ukraine will be part of that discussion. >> holden triplett, i was speaking to colin clark from the soufan center, earlier this evening, and he said not just in this, moment but in the last 24 hours, the ukraine war had really relegated rushed to a second to your power. it was no longer a great power in terms of politics on the world stage. aside from the fact that it

retains its nuclear capabilities you share that assessment that given what has happened in the last 24 hours, plus just how disastrously the war in ukraine has gone for russia, that it no longer shares the stage with two great power countries, perhaps, like the united states and emerging china? >> i think it is too early to tell. i think that, right now, putin is hurting. and i think we will see in the next couple of -- coming weeks whether he is able to recover from it. i do still think he has a number of allies and -- the fsb, that he can rely on to clean house. and so i think he has a lot of levers if -- continue to pull, to kind of get things in order within russia. there is -- they continue to export a huge amount of energy, oil and gas, from a number of different countries. they have mercenary groups like the wagner group that operates in a number of countries in africa, and throughout the middle east. they continue to exercise a

fair amount of influence. are they the same level they were at the soviet union or even ten years ago? i think that is hard to judge. one thing that has changes, i think, is -- less rules now. and so even if -- power has decreased, i think we may have to -- see them even more reckless. and i think, and anyways, and that is good -- than anything. >> ambassador william taylor, joel rubin, holden triplett, please stick around -- up next, how our intelligence agencies both here and abroad going to respond to this infighting? and later, how is ukraine reacting? could this give them an edge in the war? and then, how the u.s. is responding to the russian rebellion -- bellion -- i'm saving with liberty mutual, mom. they customize your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. check it out, you could save $700 dollars just by switching. ooooh, i'll look into that. let me put a reminder on my phone. save $700 dollars. pick up dad from airport?

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rebellion went to russia quickly in the last 24 hours, wagner group fighters announced -- 2400 miles of moscow. they've since backed down after coming to an agreement with the belarusian president.

but intelligence agencies in the united states and abroad are left wondering what the signifies for the state of russia, the ukrainian war and the international community writ large. our panel is back with me. joel, part of that international community, of course -- china, if you are president, xi jinping, what is it you are watching for? how are you beginning to reassess your relationship with russia? >> right now, jinping has to be looking at russia and wondering if this state could potentially collapse and wondering if -- investment in the relationship. very deft diplomacy by secretary blinken going out to beijing about ten days or so ago. it's very important have these contacts. and it's very important for the united to be speaking with china about the potential negative fallout inside russia. china publicly said that they were not going to provide, nor have they provided a -- assistance. we will see -- continue to, i'm sure -- the united states continue to

monitor that closely. but for china, this was a bet that russia would come out ahead. and clearly, it is a losing bet. and to have a destabilized major power with nuclear weapons nearby is not something that -- in the cards. so, hopefully, they are able to now be -- diplomatically to a certain extent, to put pressure on putin to wind down this. were i think that is really the big picture point here, alicia, is that vladimir putin has to make a decision about when he is going to stop this illegal, unconscionable invasion of ukraine, and all signs are pointing in a negative direction for -- russia's efforts. there and it is going to take countries like china, in particular, to rein in and push into move in the other direction from where he is right now and to end this war. hopefully they -- in that direction. >> all right, ambassador taylor, as a former diplomat, you perhaps don't want to weigh in on american politics and what the implications of this means for our domestic politics. but given the fact that the

ukraine war has consumed so much of the political discussion, given the fact that one of the major political parties here and the former president here -- some have expressed support for vladimir putin, certainly calling him a strongman. they marveled at his genius and the way that he has conducted himself over the years -- how do you see the past 24 hours impacting domestic american politics also going into a presidential year? >> well, you are right, ayman. i don't want to talk about domestic politics. but i will observe that both parties have supported very strongly, and very robustly, and very persistently, insistently, ukraine in this. and both parties, in particular as reflected in the congress, the leadership of the republicans in the senate and the leadership of the republicans on the house committees -- our strong supporters of ukraine, and strong opponents

of russia. yeah, you get some voices. i mean, you referred to some of the voices, not in elective office right now, but now the strong support that we have seen from all of these -- is very likely to continue. i think we are going to see that. i think you mentioned earlier the effect of this counteroffensive, which, again, if the ukrainians take advantage of the disarray in the russian leadership, and the probable -- holes in the defensive line, this counteroffensive line could have success and that will breed success here as well in the united states, and in europe, for that matter. >> -- ayman, one of the things we are looking at is information flow, right? and how difficult it is to get information to the russian people, given the propaganda machine of the russian state. with prigozhin, about 24 hours

ago, communicating to the russian people saying, the pretext that you have been given for this invasion of ukraine by your leader is not, in fact, true. the fact that you now have president zelenskyy speaking in russian to the russian people, to the russian forces, it would seem to me that there is a window of opportunity for communication and information flow to break that propaganda holds. talk to me about what that flow could look like, the window of opportunity, and just how quickly it will open in close. nd just ho quickly it w>> i would like to e is an opportunity here. unfortunately, there is such a steady stream, literally, for decades, of propaganda. propagandize and the russian people that, even within a short window, it could be very difficult, even when you get information in, there information leaks and about it, even prigozhin's comments,

there are a few among thousands, tens of thousands, spouting every, night every day, and everything that the russians see, and breed. so, my guess, is that while there are some people who, probably, realize -- most people realize, they are being fed a fair amount of propaganda, certainly the ones who can remember the soviet union,. it has inundated them, for so long, that the chance is going to have an effect on them, and change their mindset. i think it's small. i don't think that they are unlikely to change -- their widespread thoughts anytime soon. >> joe, the new york times reporting, senior national security officials had indications, as early as wednesday, that prigozhin was preparing to take action. now that they have seen how close the wagner fighters came to moscow, what steps do you see taking them to not only guard the united states, but our allies around the world? >> at the stage, clearly, with

the instability in the kremlin, again, strengthening the relationship with nato, at higher levels of coordination. frankly, considering, including ukraine in nato is part of a stronger bulwark. this episode demonstrates the crucial importance of a strong security alliance with nato. it is to criticize nato they are able to be laid to rest right now, but that relationship provides security for the united states, for our homeland, and with a blockage between russia, and the united states. it is a diplomatic contact with, countries that have influenced in moscow is now going to be crucial. the big one, the question about the nuclear arsenal, we do have

experience in dealing with russia after the collapse of the soviet union when it came to and in engaging in an ever leading arsenal, and leadership. essentially, to shrink it. no notice yet of reporting of intelligence assessments that anything has changed in the nuclear arsenal, or in how russia is managing that, but it needs to be watched extremely closely to ensure everything is staple, and that it is in the hands of responsible leaders and russia. >> this has been such a fast-moving story. some of this happening within the past 24 hours. we still have more questions than answers. it is easy for this conversation to become myopic, to become about the contours of this deal. i think i need to take a big step back, and ask, and bassett are, this is about the struggle for democracy, globally, right? this is about the role that russia plays on the world stage.

as we know, this was not a battle between two democracy loving forces, by any stretch of the imagination. yet, just a fact that we are beginning to see cracks, that we are beginning to see what might be a challenge to their power was, already, a different code reese issued to the conversation we have been having to date. when you step back, and you see what this all means in a global context, what then is the conversation we need to be having? >> yes, democracy is an important piece of this. it is not the only piece. the other aspect of this is the notion that big nations do not get to invade small nations. there is such a thing as sovereignty. every nation has a right to exist, a right to exist within its own borders. these are principles. yes, democracy is a principle we believe in, that the ukrainians believed in, that europeans believe, and that

nato believes and, but it is also something that is attractive. the principle of sovereignty, of territorial integrity, that appeals across the world. across culture. the big nations don't get to invade, and to take parts of smaller nations. this is why ukraine has to win. to reestablish those principles. >> would there have been an opportunity for the u.s. to anticipate this -- i don't know if it collapses the right word, but i would say, the lack of professions of russian security forces inside of russia, slowing down prigozhin, and a vector group? it caught a lot of people by surprise how quickly he was able to move, and to make these quick advances. but when u.s. intelligence, would it anticipated the lack of resistance from russia's security apparatus?

>> absolutely, it is something we will be watching closely. there is always the concern, to take a step back, that the security services, fsb, fdr, all timothy, are about protecting their own skin. right now, they are aligned with putin because he has come from them, and he tends to put them at the top of the pyramid, but ultimately, they want to ensure that they survive. so, even with what continues to happen today. from that, what is key for me u.s. intel perspective, trying to understand what happened. if they miss this? to the fsb message? did they intentionally let it happen because they want putin out? or were they letting it roll a little bit because they wanted to see who would stand up to, would be quiet, who would oppose their, to would support it, and in ways to flush out individuals inside of the country. so, i think it would be instructive to watch the future, and what sort of actions you can see from the fsb. are there show trials? are there people who are

arrested after this? this will be indicative of the level of control that putin can maintain in russia. we may not see anything for a few days or, couple of weeks, because he has been hurt by this, but i do think that after that, we start to see something more active. if we don't, that may indicate that there is a much larger crack at the top than anyone anticipated. >> as we began this conversation, the story is just beginning. joel reuben, holden triplett, ambassador taylor, thank you all so much. with the biden administration, what they are saying, and not saying, as the world watches a dangerous rift take shape in russia. stay with us. stay with us the first inkling that something was wrong was i started to notice that i couldn't do things without losing my breath. i couldn't make it through the airport, and every like 20 or 30 yards i had to sit down and get my breath. every physical exertion seemed to exhaust me. and finally, i went to the hospital

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what are folks 60 and older up to these days? getting inspired! volunteering! playing pickleba...! >> the white house has yet to officially comment on the wagner group's apparent retreat from its march to moscow, but u.s. secretary of state anthony blinken has a from the administration support to ukraine. lincoln spoke with ukraine's foreign minister this afternoon, assuring him of the u.s.

support is, steady spokesperson for blinken, said quote, supported by the united states for ukraine will not, change the u.s. will stay in close coordination with ukraine, as the situation develops. let's bring in senior white house reporter for nbc news digital, peter nikolas. peter, good to see you, again so let's talk about what these past 24 hours mean in the broader white house ukraine policy, is it too early for them to assess whether this has been a wildly successful campaign so far in pushing back vladimir putin from, ukraine putin wanted this war to and swiftly, he wanted to win desperately by the biden administration's efforts to thwart that have in large part succeeded. >> yes, i think this vindicates the biden ukraine policy to some degree, biden has done is he has marshaled allies in the international partners to try and bolster ukraine, he is given money and weapons, sophisticated advanced weapons to, ukraine it created a long

and grinding war, made it difficult for putin to prevail. and, in that time period, putin has faced increasing resistance at home, dissent, which has culminated in the breach we have been watching play out over the last, 48 hours where he has got the most serious challenge to his rule and russia that we have seen in years. so, it does show the success of the biden administration to ukraine and in 2024, when the election is coming, up this is going to be an issue. because, the front runner for the republican nomination donald trump has tried very different approach, he is tried to essentially, the friend vladimir putin, with vladimir putin has tried to escalate vladimir putin. two very different styles. >> peter, one of the conversations the i'm certain they're having inside the administration is about this run up to the nato, summit a bit more than two weeks away,

your sense of how it changes the contours of the conversation happening inside the administration? >> well, i think the nato summit is going to be an inflection point, because nato allies have been i think galvanized by the war in ukraine, it has given nato purpose, and this obviously urgency around this matter, because if russia prevails in ukraine, that could threaten lithuania, estonia, the baltic states, and that is pushed into, it some risk, so the nato summit will be an opportunity for allies to express resistance to what putin is doing, to shore up zelenskyy the leader of ukraine and biden 's -- will be going to the nato summit, i think with a strong, hand because putin is on the backfoot, no question, the wagner group is off the battlefield for now, that is 25,000 soldiers fighting with

the wagner group who are now disbanded, and that is advantageous for, ukraine ukraine has -- -- to capitalize on this moment. >> nbc's peter nikolas in d.c. for us, peter, thank you so much. next, an inside look at the wagner group from nbc's richard engel. engel. you can have nice things. hah! kelly clarkson, we have a kid... and harold. wayfair's got just what you need... performance fabrics, stains don't stand a chance. no chance! -woo! dog friendly and wallet friendly... pug-proved. get nice things with nice prices at wayfair. ♪ wayfair, you've got just what i need ♪ trelegy for copd. ♪birds flyin' high, you know how i feel.♪ ♪breeze driftin' on by...♪ ♪...you know how i feel.♪ you don't have to take... [coughing]

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special coverage of the rebellion and, russia nbc's chief foreign correspondent richard engel has reported extensively on the, wagner group and he has the analysis of how russia got, here based on -- relationship. >> a senior u.s. official tells nbc news, the best way to understand what is happening now in russia, is a mafia power struggle, you got the progression is a mid level, and until recently loyal soldier who has risen through the ranks by doing special tasks for his boss. president putin. first, it was, food promotion owned a chain of restaurants including that new haven in st. petersburg, which putin and his early team used as a hanging out, earning him the nickname putin's chef. overtime, he learned to cater to putin's other needs, most americans know progression from the disinformation on their social media feeds, he founded a -- the internet research agency, and according to the justice

department, doubts about the legitimacy of the 2016 election, highlighted racial tensions in the united states, and promoted donald trump. in 2022, prigozhin reinvented himself again, into a commander of a mercenary army, the wagner group. supplementing russian troops in ukraine, which was failing on the battlefield. he recruited thousands of, convex promising pardons, in exchange for frontline service. thousands were sent to their deaths, and according to the few who managed to escape, they were shot if they attempted to retreat. i ask ukraine's president zelenskyy about the group earlier this month -- >> how do you describe wagner, and what it is doing on the ground here? >> they are mercenaries, and terrorists, they are just killers, he said. bogosian is also rich, he uses his private army to prop up dictators in africa, in particular the president of the

central african republic, an exchange, taking, gold and blood diamonds, worth half a billion dollars a year according to diplomats. but with money, power, and an armed force, prigozhin has made enemies. he accuses russia's defense minister and army chief for driven by jealousy and treason of denying wagner fires ammunition, and now, he wants revenge. >> nbc's richard engel there. up next, our final thoughts after a day of extraordinary developments in russia.

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extended coverage of the situation unfolding in, russia just a short time ago, my -- renowned american journalist and staff writer for the new yorker spoke with, me and shared their thoughts on what comes next in this perilous moment. take a listen. >> how does this impact

vladimir putin? how do you think this kind of splintering between putin and the wagner group will shape how putin is perceived in the public eye? perhaps if there were any adversary still within putin's orbit waiting for a moment to strike, perhaps an opposition, figure somebody who wants to emerge to challenge, putin you, know he knows that this is a historic challenge to his rule as you said, it is different than political opposition, but how does this for example change putin's perception on those that may challenge his rule in the weeks months, maybe years ahead? >> well it has kept putin's regime so stable is that he is more paranoid, or -- then he tends to overestimate the ability of his political opponents to act against him. he has put his political point of them, prison he jailed an oligarch --

now almost 20 years ago and now he is jailed -- navalny, and most of his top activists the ones who didn't leave the country, so you know, to imagine that putin would have -- instability to just -- not he would allow prigozhin to live in belarus, which is not -- an independent country or to africa, and to continue to challenge him from a distance, that is really hard to imagine, right, so i think what we are probably looking at is an intensified crackdown -- russia had been living through really intense crack down both for the last 11 years, and particularly the last year and a half since the beginning of the full scope version of ukraine, but now we are probably looking at the likelihood of really establishing soviet style isolation, right, so turning off access to world wide web altogether, or at least

blocking youtube and telegram, and the channel prigozhin was, using and also a lot of other semi independent and independent media and news as well as more government media. so for the russian opposition, such as it, is where it is this is really -- >> our thanks to our guest for, that so it has been a bit of a world win 24 hours, i don't think anybody had anticipated this certainly caught a lot of people by surprise, but it is going to be interesting to see what happens on the days and weeks ahead, what a big questions, what are your big takeaways? >> given it is saturday, night so tomorrow sunday morning -- to see what we are going to hear from leaders on the sunday shows in part, because we know the white house is strategically decided to withhold saying too much, it will probably be the first time we are hearing from the people inside the administration, i like the point of the investor telling about the fact that yes this is about democracy, but this is also about sovereignty as an interesting frame, and i

wonder if we will hear more about that tomorrow? >> it will be also interesting to hear from participants outside of russia and ukraine, what i mean by that is what you brought up early in the, show what is china thinking? what is saudi arabia? thinking what is india thinking? these are countries that had double down on russia, thinking russia was going to come out victorious in the war in ukraine, i think after the last 24, hours they certainly must have a moment of pause that russia is on the right track, both with vladimir putin, and with what they were doing in ukraine. >> and when you talk about that global context, the fact that yes this is a story that will develop in the next 24 to 48 hours, but really to me this is a story that develops over the next two weeks in the run up to that summit. >> yeah, no doubt about, that thank you very much for you, that does it, for us and thanks to alicia menendez, and everyone for joining nbc special coverage of the russian rebellion, it continues, tomorrow we will have more on what is happening on the ground from our partners got news after this break. ak

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headlines, rebellion averted, vladimir putin's former ally orders his tank convoy to turn back from moscow to avoid bloodshed, and get some