had the proverbial car for the republican party, and about how you feel about abortion, the national consensus on, it no one was comfortable with roe v. wade. it also didn't feel like a revolutionary and transgressive moment. the other part of this is the state legislatures around the country that are controlled by the republican party have been going farther and farther off the cliff with us. they're doing things like this six-week abortion ban, and they're doing things like criminalizing doctors for providing even medical advice about it. they're preventing rape victims from getting abortions. all of these things are way outside the polling mainstream. the republican party knows that. there are republicans in florida begging ron desantis not to sign the abortion ban because they know how bad it is even among their own base. >> rick wilson, hayes braun, great having you on the program. thank you. straight ahead, the latest on the aftermath of the short-lived armed rebellion in

russia. another hour of christiansen reports starts right now. ight now good morning, it is sunday june 25th. i am chris jansing. velshi is in -- he's making his way to ukraine to report on the events of the last few days. that's where we begin this hour. an extraordinary, tell, and potentially game changing 24 hours. this morning, this leads the u.s. and the world with questions in the aftermath of the greatest threat in vladimir putin's 23 year rule. it's weakened his authority? but does it tell us about his country's defense. what might be the impact on the war in ukraine? we've got some thoughts from today's meet the press. >> now what we've seen is russia having to defend moscow, its capital, against mercenaries of its own making. this is a challenge coming from within to putin, and that's

where his focus has been. our focus is resolutely and resolutely on ukraine. >> we saw a demonstrable crack and uproot and strength. the only real answer here is that putin is going to stop this war, and pull out of ukraine. if he wants to save his country, save his leadership -- >> >> the armed rebellion initiated by the leader of the wagner mercenary forest, which has been fighting on russia's behalf in ukraine, and it in the middle of a reported moth just to moscow with no bloodshed. it ended surprisingly quickly less than a day after a began, raising questions of a coup. then, a deal was brokered by fellow russian president, it's lukashenko a very close ally of putin, who also has close ties to prigozhin. according to lukashenko, you prigozhin will be ex communicated to belarus. they'll be charges will be

dropped. both have been vocal, including a fiery speech by putin. neither him nor prigozhin have been seen or heard from publicly since the deal was announced. joining me now in london, nbc news correspondent -- in kyiv ukraine, foreign correspondents -- and security analyst and former special agent with a joint terrorism task for, clint walks. ali, the russian foreign minister says the country remains in support of president putin by prigozhin left the southern town and done, a column of tanks and armored vehicles to cheering crowds. still no word from inside the kremlin? >> that's right, no word from inside the kremlin after 24 hours of extraordinary mutiny and mayhem. we have heard [inaudible] that vladimir putin will give a television of addressed today, but that television address was reported on the 21st of this month, that's before any of

this unfolded. no update from the man himself, who probably everyone wants to hear from. everyone is looking to see what is the meeting will be. yesterday, when he made that television address well this whole address was unfolding, he looked a visibly angry. he was talking very strongly in terms of mutiny, trader, being stabbed in the back, and punishment. that is very strong wards by the end of the day, they didn't make him look particularly strong. by the beginning of the day, he was talking about prigozhin going to jail, being punished for what he's done, facing the full prosecution, the full punishments of the legal system. by the end of the day, he was given exile. they were told that he wouldn't face any punishment as wagner fighters won't face any punishment. they can even joined the russian defense ministry. he's come out of this looking much we command that he was before. we spoke about this in the last hour, in the early 90s, when there were coups against boris

yeltsin, or rafael gorbachev, the perpetrators of those who served long prison sentences. none of these people that were involved in this potential coup, this potential civil war, only 200 miles from the russian capital, are facing any punishment. not at this point, anyways. that makes putin look weak. he had to do a u-turn for all the statements he made in the morning by the afternoon, saying that, actually, prigozhin can go scot-free, despite the biggest challenge to his leadership in over two decades. the next days, hours, weeks, they're still going to be critical. they're critical to see what's prigozhin's next move, is how loyal the wagner group will be, he and putin standing within his own circles in moscow. what's going to do about his defense secretary that prigozhin have projected so much of his air towards. quite frankly, chris, a lot of

those criticisms that prigozhin had made is something that resonates with the russian people, and how is that going to filter in the next weeks and months as the economy they're keeps getting weaker, as they're dragged further into this war in ukraine. a war that was meant to last three days, now there are 16 months in. it's a very precarious position for vladimir putin. he can't be feeling particularly strong right now with the way things are passing out across this country, and certainly in the capital. everything that's happened also challenges that image of unity that vladimir putin has tried so much to protect. >> we are going to get to the impact on the war in ukraine, but let me start with the impact with the war on russia, and with lattimer pond. we heard senator klobuchar say that this is a demonstrable crack. can we quantify how weak putin is as a result of this?

how do you see, excellent? >> it's hard to know just yet because much of state media is still controlled by putin. the story though can't, you know, be hidden at this point. this is been something that we've talked about for a year now, that you can't disinfo your way, if you're putin, forever, when you've got tens, hundreds of thousands of casualties. the war is not going well, they've had to do conscription, and they also had to back the wagner group with things like prisoners, releasing prisoners into the hands of prigozhin who is now turning around and driving them into russia. inside russia now, they know that there is something very, very wrong going on. both with ukraine, and inside russia's borders. this is different for them compared to 18 months ago in this war started. i think the other thing that we really need to look at is prigozhin is more than the fight in ukraine. we should remember that he has lots of assets, and things that he does for russia and africa. he owns lots of extra cushion

minerals. remember prigozhin is also the owner of patriot media group, which is part of the propaganda disinformation machine that russia relies on to spread its message around the world, to include the internet research agency. this is that troll farm that was used to interfere. when you put all this together, it's a very precarious position for vladimir putin. this is someone who does a lot of dirty work on the ground and online. using that individual in the system they were doing the brunt of the fighting in bakhmut they were taking casualties. you can see those people that are cheering in the streets, that's because this is the populace. his foot soldiers are prisoners, or former prisoners, or have been recruited by prigozhin himself. they're not as loyal to the russian ministry of defense. there is a serious problem outside of moscow for vladimir putin in a way that he probably has never faced.

i don't know if we've even seen in the soviet era. >> is that fact to stay alive right now? >> to some degree, yes. i, mean i don't know that he's stays alive forever. there is a pattern with russia, and it's dissidents. they may go away for awhile, but you know, eventually putin's assassins come to haunt them in one way or another. going to belarus, it is important to note that prigozhin had helped out lukashenko at various times. a couple years ago, lukashenko had an uprising in his own country. prigozhin dispatch some of his bloodhounds to do work for the belarusian president. there is a tight relationship there. ultimately, when you look across the border, prigozhin is someone who gets things done for putin. putin, as much as he probably doesn't like what's going on, also needs to figure out an exit strategy. as a last note, prigozhin was facing lucy must-have his

groups coming july. they were trying to roll the wagner group into the military defense. there are some motives behind the scenes for prigozhin and why he push this when he did. this is coming up in that july deadline. >> early this morning, as you know, the ukrainian president said, quote, the man from the kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere. he knows what he is afraid of because he himself created this threat. talk a little bit more but what we heard from president zelenskyy and how all of these developments are resonating on the ground there in ukraine. >> yeah, it's interesting to note, chris, that that part of his address overnight was in russia. . he specifically said i'm speaking to rush, i'm speaking to you and rachel now. i'm telling you that president putin is probably in high dane. there's a bit a taunting, there is he's been known to do. also saying that as long as you stick with that leader, with president putin, all you will get is disaster.

so trying to appeal to the people of russia based on what happened yesterday, you know, perhaps it was time for a change in their country. he also spoke and that address to the world at large, say, in luck, ukraine is the country that is protecting the eastern flank of europe right now from russia, a place that he says is embroiled in chaos. he says the world saw the bosses of russia don't control anything. these are the kinds of lines, the ways that zelenskyy is trying to relay this message to his people, to the world, trying to bolster support once again for the fight here in ukraine, telling the west keep those materials, keep those weapons coming because we are your best defense against a chaotic russia. in the meantime, the war on the ground continues. the deputy defense minister said that there were offensive operations on all sides at the

front yesterday, and gains by the ukrainians as well. chris. >> el rio -- clint watts, thank you so much. joining me now, former cia officer, john cipher. cofounder is by cropped entertainment, and a nonresident senior fellow at the atlantic council. it's great to have you. here for the institute and the study of war, as you, know as a washington d.c. based think tank, which has been intently following russia's invasion of ukraine, says that the kremlin failed to mount a response to -- underscore an internal security weaknesses that is due to weaknesses that we have talked about, also the element to surprise. i wonder if you agree, what do you think the status of russian forces and intelligence as right now? >> well, certainly the person who comes out of this look at the weakest's vladimir putin. frankly, so to the russian security forces. yes, they're fighting in

ukraine. in fact, not this would've happened without failures in the war. this is all about the war. the war is going to be -- can you imagine the united states, if an armed group was coming up to the capital that our military, our security services couldn't put that down quickly? the fear that vladimir putin shown is fear that perhaps his own military, his own security services aren't loyal to him, and maybe they're loyal to others, or to prigozhin, or they won't act in a case like this. the fact that he had to run to lukashenko the belarusian to solve this crisis, with over 20 years he's created overlapping groups of security services to protect himself, that's really telling here. >> why haven't we heard from him, john? >> well you know, frankly, for the last several years, certainly several months, he has been cloistered he. does not speak much. he seems to allow this amount of chaos. one of the reasons he supported

lukashenko lukashenko is essential for him. it helps him have the divide and conquer leadership has. if you are a dictator, and you worry about the power of the military and generals, ahead of the military, one of the things that prigozhin did is to try to weaken them. he would play these people, and institutions against each other. he is the ultimate arbiter between them. when push came to shove he couldn't rely on the loyalty of the same people. this is really dangerous. if you are a dictator, it's all about power. he's always talked about been the man for stability and russia, and it was all just cracked hard yesterday. esterday to that point, we don't know where prigozhin is right now. and even if the wagner group is now out of business, does that mean elements of the

organization he couldn't continue under existing or a new capacity, or even that prigozhin might resurface. >> all of these things are possible. the wagner fighters could be incorporate into the regular defense or the army. how do you take these people been fighting in a completely different way, and put them into a bureaucracy and make that work? it shows weakness of the leadership, it shows a weakness of the system. and if prigozhin is going to be in belarus, this is a problem for the future of putin, and a lot of people have speculated that putin would just kill him. that creates a separate set of problems for vladimir putin. he has created this every man view that he supports the troops, that the rich elites in moscow were not serious about taking care of the russians at the front. killing him could create real

friction inside the military, and there's a lot of dangerous people in russia who support yevgeny prigozhin. >> it's great to have you on the program. thank you. we are back in 60 seconds with those new reports that indicate u.s. intelligence knew what prigozhin was planning. plus, the war is still raging outside russia's borders. we will discuss the war in ukraine, and the race for the white house, revealing new polling that shows just how much voters care about former president trump's legal woes. you're watching a special sunday edition of chris jansing reports, only on msnbc.

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challenge to the senior military leader. this intelligence was not definitive. they added, congressional members were briefed on the matter last week. >> joining us now with more, white house correspondent monica alba. monika, now since that we are watching this stunning turn of events between putin and prigozhin, what does the white house have to say about this, officially? >> i think it's notable here in that reporting that you just talked about, the fact that senior administration officials were also briefed on some of that intelligence on wednesday. they were talking about it some days ago, that prigozhin was possibly considering mounting this challenge. but they didn't know exactly when it was going to happen. signs were pointing to the fact that it could be imminent, given the wagner group was amassing those weapons. and then i'm told that alarm bells really started to go off significantly on friday morning. they were seeing these escalatory steps take a bit of

a different direction. that's why you had everybody at the white house monitoring this hour by hour. that is why the president has been continually briefed by all of this. that is why the administration, even though they've known about this for days now, and they've seen some of these signs for weeks, i'm told, they don't want to speak about this publicly in any way that could affect how this is perceived, in terms of what role the u.s. would have placed what they are calling this internal russian affair. that is why the president and the white house has put the focus and the emphasis on these diplomatic steps instead they're taking place here. what they are calling the leader of germany, france, and the uk. and with the secretary of state blinken. often really sending most of yesterday on the phone, with their critical counterparts. all with support for ukraine. so there is still no sense or conclusion that can be drawn from u.s. officials that i've spoken to, about what this means for the larger war in

ukraine, in terms of its timeline, in terms of what could happen next. and the other huge question that we're following here, chris, is what this would all mean for president putin's trip in russia. >> that's a key question. monika alba at the white house, thank you for that. still ahead, what does this mean for the war in ukraine? i will ask an expert who has been studying the kremlin and europe for decades. a new polling from nbc is revealing some jarring findings about exactly where trump stands with republican voters, after his most recent indictment. you are watching chris jansing reports, only on msnbc.

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chaos in russia is a sign of his really goodness. world leaders are not going to focus on the war in ukraine. the president of lithuania posted this statement to twitter, quote, the kremlin regime reaps what it sows. the violence directed ukraine has backfired. for more on this, i'm joined by the former deputy assistant secretary of state for the bureau of european and eurasian affairs. and president of the german marshall fund. what a wild 24, 36 hours this has been, right? the u.s. and nato officials, understandably, not surprisingly, they've been careful in their public responses. but some european officials are indicating that the internal feud is a game-changer. do you agree with that statement? and if so, how does this change the game? >> it's great to be with you. this is really what the european and united states, our nato partners and allies have

to prepare for for a decade of instability. what the last 24 hours showed us is that the russian government and military's are, they were the untouched towards moscow. so it speaks to this uncertainty. meanwhile, you have russia using tactical nuclear weapons. that's why you have the president leaning in, that is going to be really critical in the next two weeks, and they run up to the nato july summit. it's really an opportunity for those leaders to make clear that they understand this level of instability, that nato is fully prepared for it.

they are preparing for that instability, and the eyes are fully on ukraine. this is where the nato summit is going to have to deliver for ukraine, and continue to provide them with the capabilities they need to liberate their territory. this is just an extraordinary amount of instability along nato's borders. >> a statement by lithuania's president was echoed this morning, on meet the press. amy klobuchar said putin has bit of a lot more than he ever thought was possible. so is there a way for the u.s. and its allies to take advantage of this moment? >> this is for the instability

for ukraine to have a robust security line along nato's eastern flank. we will have to see how much pressure the russian regime places on it. wagner is in venezuela, and this type of russian influence has really been destabilizing around the world. so we should look for opportunity to see where we can strengthen security in sub-saharan africa, potentially in latin america. it is a moment to have a candid conversation with our chinese workers. they have some tough decisions to make about what their partnership looks like in the future. >> you mentioned the march

towards moscow. and when the wagner group was leaving, they were cheering in the crowds. so if you are inside the kremlin right now, how worried are you? >> we are extremely worried. we've been watching over the last few months, with the development of a lot of private military contractors, we saw the special forces, this is starting to feel like the godfather a little bit, as these different factions can protect their own investments. one thing we are watching is the long chevy of prigozhin. in the long time, this could mean protected forces within the kremlin, and if he does not survive, you are going to see a lack of trust and deep division

in the russian military. they are not going to know who to trust, on the eastern front in ukraine. they are not sure and this is going to be very significant instability for the long term. we are going to have a very clear picture in protecting ourselves, our forces, and giving ukraine the capability it needs to accomplish the job. >> thank, you heather connally. we appreciate it so much. after the break, the u.s. secretary of state's acting to the crisis in russia and weighing in on that g7 emergency call. you don't. our sulfate-free collections smell incredible... ♪ and leave your hair touchably soft and smooth.

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morning about action from the international community the wagner group's short-lived rebellion against the kremlin. secretary of state anthony blinken on meet the press, just a short time ago, and just how much has changed for russia since across the border into ukraine over a year ago. >> what we've seen is extraordinary. think about this, way 16 months ago, russian forces were on the doorstep of kyiv in ukraine. they would take the capital and matter of days and erase the country from the map as an independent country. no, what we've seen is russia having to defend moscow, its capital, against mercenaries of its own making. so in and of itself, that's extraordinary. and in so doing, we've also seen it rise to the surface profound questions about the very premise for these

questions about ukraine. as well as a direct challenge to putin's authority. so i think we've seen more cracks emerge in the russian facade. it is too soon to tell exactly where they go, and when they get there. but certainly, we have all sorts of new questions that putin is now going to have to address in the weeks and months ahead. >> one of the questions he was asked about is what impact is might have on americans being held in a russian prison. he says, it is still too soon to tell. and still ahead, former president trump in major legal trouble. but do 2024 voters even care? new polling from nbc revealing where trump stands in the race for the white house.

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number of republican presidential candidates at the safe and freedom coalition conference in d.c., donald trump last night was giving a keynote speech. and he has plenty to say about his recent federal indictment. >> i had every right to have these documents inboxes. joe biden didn't, even mike pence didn't have that right. they weren't covered by the presidential records act, i was, because i was president, but they weren't. i'm probably the only person in history of this country that's been indicted and my numbers

went up. >> meanwhile, we have brand-new polling from our political unit this morning, showing that despite being federally indicted, the former president has actually increased his lead over his opponents in the republican primary. trump is now up 29 points over florida governor ron desantis. they have dropped a significant nine points this april. and while trump still trails joe biden in a hypothetical matchup, that is within the margin of error. give us the headlines and help us to understand what is happening here, mark. >> the headline, chris, as you were just mentioning, is that donald trump has increased and expanded his lead after his federal criminal indictment. it is also really telling in

this poll is that in the republican party, donald trump might be the parties leader. we have about half, 49% of the republican primary voters who say yes, i want donald trump to be the leader of the republican party. and donald trump overwhelmingly winds over those republicans in our primary ballot. but then you end up having a 21% to believe, yes, donald trump was a good president. but it's time to consider another leader. and among that group, you end up seeing ron desantis getting a majority of republicans. but donald trump is still winning over about one in five of them. and then there's 29% who believe that donald trump, that they need to go in a completely different direction. they weren't all that happily with donald trump's presidency. we see the choice scattered among several different republicans, but bottom line, it is 50/50 on whether you want donald trump remains a leader of the republican party. that's something to look forward to this week, and in the months ahead, chris.

>> mark murray, always good to see you, my friend. thank you so much. for more on this, i'm joined by the democratic strategist and former executive director of the new york state democratic party. also stuart stevens, the author of the book, it was all a lie. how the republican party became donald trump. trump has been indicted twice now, and his presence in the party has only strengthened it, as mark said. what does that tell us about the state of the republican party? and do you think, right now, it's sending a big message to democrats in general? >> if you go back to the polling for all of those voters, you want to go in a different direction with donald trump as the head of the party. they are stirring up a lot of that vote so donald trump has

the opportunity to try and get as much support as he can. i am there for you, that sort of moderate trump language. and the republican voters are still very compelled. so they might prepare for a donald trump candidacy. prepare for him to be nominated again. he is doing better than donald trump and his hypothetical one-on-one matchups. but as we've sown, it still is in a margin of error. so democrats who thought, yeah, let's bring it on donald trump, we will just beat you again. should they think a little more carefully about that? >> i think this race is going to be very close. i think we are in an era of

close presidential races. we have to wrap our mind around the fact that donald trump has a very good chance to be the next president of united states. we have a natural tendency to look at this in the wrong way. when we say that trump's numbers are going up in spite of being indicted, it's like saying guys go to strip clubs despite the new today. this is a positive to the republican vote to elect trump. it proves that he's being persecuted, it proves he's a victim, and proves that they deep state is after him. and that is the world they want to live in. they are not embracing the idea of a political party that has a center right philosophy. it has become a party of grievance, and what greater grievance than being indicted by the deep state? >> all right, guys. we've got a lot more to talk about. we're going to take a quick break here, and we've got more. including bringing one of our favorite legal analysts on some new developments in that realm.

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strategist, and former executive director of the state democratic party. stuart stevens, senior adviser for the lincoln project. also didn't conversation, robert mcquade, a former attorney in michigan and msnbc legal analyst. for our new nbc poll, we show trump gaining after latest indictment. it's also early, lots of legal developments ahead. just special counsel jack smith this weekend asked to start the trump documents trial in december? is that feasible? >> i think it's feasible, but i think it's also unlikely. and i think that's because he will do everything in his power to delay the 2024 election. if there is a realistic timeline, they explain that

getting security clearances, setting a motion schedules. that is six months from now and that sounds like a reasonable period of time. what seems more likely to have in the meantime is that donald trump is going to file with his lawyers a number of motions, challenging his prosecution. from all kinds of things like selective prosecution, and even trying to introduce classified documents. this will get us into 2024, and if we are able to get the government in any way, the government will appeal to the 11th circuit. will she will also further delay things by many months. >> i get the delays, barbara. but we are looking at december. this is the goal, let's call that the goal now. it could take another year to get through the challenges that trump might add.

i think decembers a reasonable time frame, but he works hard to raise motions and things that have to get appealed, decided, and then remanded to the court. look at what donald trump did with subpoenas in june with his records, when they were fought by congress. he filed cases, he filed an appeal that went all the way up to the supreme court. and years went by, because his goal would be to do the same here. >> all right. so is there anything that would go into 2024? let's say it gets delayed past december, but not all the way past the following november. that creates a possibility, donald trump would need to be in court and not on the campaign trail. even if there are other court appearances. could that jim up some more

enthusiasm for him every time he goes to court? >> i like that term that was just given. there is some value to that, right? every time he goes to court, it gives him an opportunity to be on a platform and look at what they're doing. this is the language of -- i think the word he used some months ago, it makes a difference to him to portray himself as a martyr. they will continue to dig their heels in throughout all of this. so as long as he can continue on this platform, it will continue to energize his supporters.

a lot of his opponents in the gop primary are going to continue to get in the middle of that. >> you alluded to this earlier, but let's go back to 2016. if donald trump is constantly citing one indictment or another through early 2024, and maybe even further into 2024, what does that mean for the other candidates? it means that a lot of the questions they are going to be asked is going to be what about this latest development. how do they even get a message out there that's not about donald trump, what his legal problem? >> yeah, and let's don't forget this. the party has made a requirement that if you are going to be in a debate, you have to agree to support the nominee.

they are running against somebody who's indicted, and the can't be on the stage unless they say they are willing to vote for a president who could be indicted. he might be convicted. and it completely limits the ability to attack this person. he is unqualified to be the president of the united states, including indictments. but you're still going to support him? and it shows the terrible moral failure of the republican party to ever take a stance against donald trump. and it completely is a cancer for the party. i don't think the party is going to recover from it in this election. i think they could win, but it's still going to be right there. this moral hollowness of being willing to support somebody who has been a convicted felon. >> when you say, i think they could win, that trump could win?

that they could take control of congress? what do you mean by think they could win? >> all of the above. i think we're in a process here where there is really one party who represents democracy, and it's the democratic party. that's coming from somebody who spent 20 years in the democratic party. the republican party is not a normal, traditional, american political party now. what is the policy here? there is no policy. except to defeat democrats. and when you look at how democracy slides into autocracy, it doesn't happen with tanks, it happens at the ballot box. and the ability to imagine an autocracy emerging from an autocracy is one of the greatest reasons that autocracies do emerge. i think it's really important that we are out here and we are talking about the fact that this is what they want.

their goal is to become a more than autocratic government. they look at viktor orban, they look at america becoming a minority majority country, and the terrifies them. that is the battle we are in, and it is difficult to talk about without sounding alarmist, but it's like the pandemic. whatever you say the beginning proves to be inadequate at the end. >> i was talking to a democrat in d.c. a couple weeks ago, who said that all this makes him very nervous. that in fact, he thinks too many democrats are relying on abortion and trump's indictments to get joe biden over the finish line, in spite of his underwater poll ratings, concerns about his age, his mental acuity. when we were in 2016, we were so sure about hillary clinton. look at 2020, we weren't expecting it necessarily to be so close. and here we are again. do you think democrats are under estimating what it means if donald trump is indeed the nominee? even under indictment. >> i don't think we're

underestimating it. i don't think we're underestimating it, because we know what that means. we know, for example, that he will pay particular attention to the role of a president to appoint judges to the bench. they are very clear about that. so the country has had this extraordinary -- so i would say that how you feel about joe biden, whether you support his presidency or not, you are impugning his presidency based on those factors. whatever you want to throw at him, the fact of the matter is that --

whatever it is that motivates you to the poll, whether it is a concern about votes, whether it's a concern about voter suppression, which is still an issue that is in our country. whatever it takes, get to the barbara polls. and mcquade, basil i think that really should be the message. michaels, -- stevens. what a great penalty and my two hours. thank you for being here, much appreciated. that is going to do it for the special sunday edition of christiansen reports. make sure to join me tomorrow and every weekday from 1 to 3 pm eastern right here on msnbc. inside with jen psaki starts right now. >> an extraordinary armed rebellion and russia ends abruptly. the big questions remain. just how weekend's lattimer pond? is yevgeny prigozhin going to ride off into the sunset? perhaps most importantly, what does this all mean for the war in ukraine? joining us this hour, former u.s. ambassador to russia, michae