♪ ♪ ♪ >> hi, everybody. good to see you. good afternoon. i am yasmin vossoughian, thank you for joining us on this busy sunday afternoon. we are continuing our coverage of the crisis in russia. it is nine pm in moscow right now. things there are much calmer than they were this time

yesterday. but still so many questions about the wagner group's descent into russia. it ended almost as quickly as it began. yevgeny prigozhin's mercenaries got within 120 miles of moscow, the only to turn back to the races after a deal was brokered to prevent the armed rebellion. a spokesperson for the kremlin saying the wagner group leader will avoid prosecution and be exiled in belarus. his troops will be given the option to join russian military forces. prigozhin seen leaving russia last night as crowds cheered him on. meanwhile, new reporting revealing that u.s. spy agencies had indications, quote unquote, days earlier that prigozhin has been stockpiling weapons with plans to take on russian defense officials. >> i'm obviously not going to comment on intelligence matters. what i can say is this, i think it's been no secret that many people over many months and that these tensions were rising, they were brewing.

prigozhin was already saying extraordinary things about russia's war in ukraine and going directly at russia's military leadership. this was a rising storm. >> so where has this quote unquote rising storm left the embattled russian president? and how could this help ukraine in its fight for freedom? we've got it all covered for you over the next two hours. you don't want to miss the conversations we are having a head. right now, that we will go straight to moscow. nbc news chief international correspondent -- arrived there a while ago and is joining us. now you are the first on the ground there. give us a sense of what is happening in moscow right now. >> it's life as normal, yasmin. as you can see behind me, one of the main thoroughfares through moscow, which is pretty stunning, when you think about it, just in of itself because i really thought 24 hours ago i might be standing here watching or certainly talking about

russians fighting russians on these streets. as you mentioned, i've been here a short while. inevitably, it's a limited amount of time to take in what people are thinking, what people are saying. there will be 1 million conversations happening across the city and this country just to remember that this is a country that is an 11 time zones. when you try to encapsulate how many people feel, that's a challenge. i think one russian we've heard from today just describing it as incomprehensible. it's not a bad summation. the immigration officer i spoke to as i headed to the airport today simply said to me, as an aside, we've got a bit of a problem with a rebel army. there are clearly many, many russians looking at what happens and kind of blinking today and saying, wow. what do you make of that? i think that is probably the

best way to describe it. we are hearing some narratives, if you like, particularly from russian media, trying to suggest, for example, that the fact that this didn't happen was a kind of grown-up moment for russia, if you like, but there are so many questions, immediate questions at this point, at this stage right now this sunday evening that we can't answer. >> keir as you made her way to where you are now, was there any feeling that there was still tanks in the streets? did you see tanks on the streets? we knew, at one point, watching images of prigozhin making his way towards moscow, there were tanks there. so there is no indication of tanks still being there? when you are looking at russian television, right? when you are looking at newspapers, if you've had time to do that, what are they saying? what are the headlines right now in moscow? >> sure. there weren't ever any tanks on the streets here in moscow. what there were though were

wagner forces moving down the am for highway towards moscow. frankly absolutely stunning scenes we. i think another, to answer your question, what has been around today are some national guards on the street. but nothing like what you might have expected a short time ago this weekend. so, you know, the normality is what is surprising, honestly. and then i think also it's important to kind of mentioned those scenes in -- the city 800 miles from here where wagner it took over and the russian southern command for a while running in the russian operation in ukraine. as wagner left and as prigozhin left, apparently to go in exile in belarus, the crowds were cheering and taking selfies and recording videos. we've got those images. we can see that. the kremlin can see that as

well. i think they are probably looking at that and making an assessment about what that means. hat and making a president putin, through the entire two decades of his leadership, has always been laser focused on what the russian people think. imagine what he will be thinking looking at those pictures. . >> the last time we heard from president putin was saturday morning, in which he called, essentially, the people that were part of the wagner mercenary group war criminals, that were making their way towards moscow. we have not heard from him since and we understand he was not part of brokering the deal, it was the belarusian president. is there any sense from what you are hearing and even from what you know of president putin, having interviewed him yourself? and that we will be hearing from him. >> well, i think that the kremlin have some options, don't they?

it does appear as of today the minister of foreign affairs is not talking about what happened just yesterday. it could well be that the narrative is going to be, you know, that was then, this is now, nothing to see here. it could be that that is what the next coming days look like. i don't think we know what the weeks ahead look like, honestly. we have to be honest about that. >> yeah. >> there are comments coming from the u.s. talking about this is weakening president putin. clearly, i don't have to tell you what it potentially looks like for a clash like this to happen between a rebel army and the russian authorities. i really think we will have to see how this plays out, just a final point, because, remember this, this country is still on the edge of chaos at these past few days. >> yes.

>> many people here know what chaos looks like. they remember the 19 90s. some people are thinking i don't want that. we don't know, right? >> we don't know. anybody who's telling you that they know what's going to happen in the coming weeks is lying, essentially. keir simmons, we thank you. i will talk to you in our next hour. we've got a lot more questions for, you keir. stay close. we are following some new reporting on how u.s. officials have been tracking these developments. american officials knew as early as wednesday that wagner group leader yevgeny prigozhin was preparing to take military action against russia and held briefings with members of the biden administration during the week. i want to get right to that with nbc's allie raffa who's outside the white house for us with more on this. walk us through this reporting and how they chose to handle these developments. >> yeah, yasmin. you play that clip of secretary of state anthony blinken at the top of the show saying this was

a rising storm, that the u.s. had been monitoring this for months now. this escalating internal power struggle between prigozhin and president putin. but administration officials are telling us that this latest push, this latest rise in escalation was being monitored for the last week. that's because u.s. spy agencies were observing the wagner group collect more forces, more military soldiers, more military weapons. obviously concerning, not just because of the u.s. is stakes in the war between russia and ukraine, but also because of what potential impact a civil war could have in the country that has the world's largest nuclear arsenal. we know that senior biden administration officials were briefed by intelligence officials about everything that was being observed on wednesday. that information was then relate to congressional leadership on capitol hill. white house officials say they were certainly aware of this, but it wasn't until friday morning and that alarm bells

really started to be raised. obviously, we saw just the unraveling of that happening. we saw president putin's speech yesterday morning and everything that has happened since. and this was something the white house had been monitoring. certainly not a surprise. but all that to say that what happens now is still, admittedly, by the white house, still unclear, yasmin. >> hearing specifically from folks in the administration today, allie? >> for the presidents part, it has been quiet. that is obviously by design. we know yesterday the white house had said don't expect much more to come out of this. but he's at camp david, he's continuing to be briefed on all the latest developments by national security adviser jake sullivan, who is there with him at camp david. they are expected to return to the white house tonight. but we did hear from secretary of state antony blinken this morning. he was on several sunday shows where he talked about what this means in the broader scheme of

things. he talked about what this rebellion has done. he says it has shown cracks in putin's grip on power. he says it was evidenced by this rebellion. take a listen to a bit more of what he had to say about that. >> this is just the latest chapter in a book of failure that putin has written for himself. re that pand for russia, economica, militarily, its standing in the world, all those things have plummeted. >> yasmin, we don't expect much more to be said from the biden administration, at least publicly, today. because the white house is saying they want to be able to closely monitor the situation and be able to closely coordinate with allies behind the scenes, yasmin. >> allie raffa, what thank you. i want to bring in now the president of the council -- substack home and, away richard haass. richard, as always, it is great to talk to you. you just heard keir simmons's

report on the ground in moscow. what he was saying is exactly, in essence, what vladimir putin wants the world to see, which is life is back to normal in moscow, right? it is as if nothing has really happened. you tweeted yesterday, i believe, a consensus is forming that putin is much weaker as a result of events. maybe, but let's first see the details of the detail, what comes up prigozhin and what steps putin takes to tighten up at home. we will also be interested to see if she jinping backs off or stand by his man. let's dissect that a little bit and first talk about why the details of this deal are so important and what that could mean and then we will talk china. >> well the details of the deal matter in all sorts of ways. my question is, who gave more? it doesn't look like putin courtship capitulated in some, ways or does it look like prigozhin was the one who lost here? i think that will matter.

it will also tell us something, whether this was around one or chapter one of the saga. weather prigozhin has something of a future or not. there are so many areas here, to repeat what others have, said that we don't know the details, it's almost like -- we've got known and unknown unknowns here. i'm a little bit concerned about the rush to judgment. let's see. this question of putin, let's see what he does at home. let's see what he does in ukraine. i don't see a great rising opposition to him. i just think he needs to slow down a little bit before we are so confident in what the consequences of this are. >> it's interesting. i've been wondering if while folks are saying this makes him weaker if, in turn, this makes him more dangerous, more erratic, a feeling as if he's been backed into a corner.

>> i could imagine a couple of things. one is, yes, on the battlefield he may do some things to show -- a phrase someone has used about us, that he's not a pitiful, helpless -- he can still wage war within the wagner mercenaries. at home a combination about cracking down. but also handing out some goodies. putin is a warlord, if you will, but he's also a populist. he might decide now is a good time to dole out something to the russian people, to make them feel slightly better economically. so again, i just think it is too soon to count him out. >> how does putin allow prigozhin to go to belarus unscathed, watching him drive away from rostov-on-don, being cheered for by the russians, taking selfies alongside the russians, nobody's seen standing in his way as he made his way towards moscow. how does putin allow him to

survive this? or does he not have a choice knowing the type of support he has in russia right now? >> it would've been risky for putin to engage in an open arm conversation with russians killing russians, you don't know how that would have played out. also wagner, prigozhin are pretty popular. they have carried a lot of this war. also his critique of the war. my guess it has resonance or potential residents. putin has to be careful about. it if in two weeks or three weeks something were to befall mr. prigozhin, he as well in a window or an unsafe places or a poisoning, i wouldn't be surprised about that. i wouldn't assume that mr. prigozhin has a political future in russia. by the way, i wouldn't rule it out. but just because there wasn't an open armed confrontation, i don't think mr. putin is done with him. >> you mentioned you are watching xi, seeing if he will

stand by his man. the reporting indicated to us that conversations were had, i believe, not only with the chinese leader but also with iran as well. i know iran had come out at some point saying this was a domestic issue and watching xi and seeing, as you put, it stands by his man. what are you going to be watching for? . ou going to be>> i will be lookh private interactions, public comments, very interesting to see whether china uses this as a moment perhaps to be a little bit more helpful on the war in ukraine. china came out with a quote unquote peace plan. they talked about it a little bit. they have not done a lot. they have, as best we can tell, put pressure on putin or russia. now would be a perfect moment to do it if they were concerned about putin's future. >> so you mean helpful to the west. helpful to the ukrainians, helpful to negotiate with moscow, with putin? >> absolutely. indeed, i think part of our

policy should be to enlist china here. they are in a much better position than anyone else to put pressure on putin and on russia. we should be open to doing things with them if it is constructive. i'm not saying this will be, but it certainly is worth exploring. >> richard haass for us, as always, thank you sir, appreciate it. coming up, everybody, the effectiveness of putin's army, we are back in just 60 seconds with retired lieutenant general -- on how the wagner group forces got within 120 miles of moscow. we will be right back. be right back. (vo) this is sadie, she's on verizon. the network she can count on. and now she's got myplan, the game-changing new plan that lets her pick exactly what she wants and save on every perk. sadie is getting her plan ready for a big trip. travel pass, on. nice iphone. cute couple. trips don't last forever, neither does summer love. so, sadie is moving on. apple music, check! introducing myplan. the first and only unlimited plan to give you exactly what you want, so you only pay for what you need.

act now and get iphone 14 pro max on us when you switch. it's your verizon. ♪ ♪ ♪♪ voltaren. the joy of movement. ♪♪ >> welcome back. the crisis unfolding in russia is raising major questions about what comes next in the war with ukraine. it is the big o internal shakeup russia is seen in generations and expose are some glaring weaknesses in the russian chain of command as well as the overall capabilities of their military. i wanna bring in retired lieutenant general steph tweety,

the former deputy commander of the u.s. european command, also an msnbc military analyst. general, thank you for joining us on this, appreciate it. when you think about the wagner group, right, estimations are they've been providing about 50,000 of their own mercenary troops to the war in ukraine. we don't know where their loyalties lie at this point, despite what we know about this critical deal that was brokered. how harmful do you think this is to russia's war within ukraine? and how can ukraine capitalize on this moment? >> yeah, good to be with you,. yasmina's here, what we do know is that the wagner group was extremely successful in bakhmut in fact they were the only successful force that putin fielded on the battlefield. if you remember the regular russian army, they lost the

battle in kyiv, they lost the battle in kherson, they lost the battle in kharkiv and lost most of the southern part of that battle down there as well. and so the wagner group have been successful. now they have pulled out of bakhmut several weeks ago whence they seized. now you have regular russian forces there. they are already out of the fight and what the ukrainians now are doing, they are fighting the regular forces of the russian army. so i don't see a huge impact here in terms of them being pulled out of the fight. where i see the impact here is, as you know, there is already dysfunction throughout the regular military. there is a lack of morale throughout the regular military and incorporating these wagner forces, these thugs, these prisoners into the regular army,

i just don't see how that is going to work even if there's already dysfunction and then you incorporate these prisoners. it's just going to be more dysfunction. by the way, most of these prisoners that were extremely loyal to prigozhin, how do you get rid of that misty of prigozhin and their loyalty to him. >> we know -- putin was trying to dispel the reporting that so many of us had, and that there was a low morale inside the russian military. the russian military was in fact flailing, right, upon the invasion into ukraine. they said they were going to take the capital city of kyiv in 48 hours. and they in fact did not. i would argue, had the wagner mercenary group and prigozhin kept going, they may very well have been able to take the capital city of moscow within 48 hours. what does that actually say about the realities of the russian military capability?

>> well, we don't really know what happened here in terms of whether putin told his military to hold back, whether he told his air force to hold back. what we do, know it is kind of odd that that southern headquarters was seized by the wagner group and no shots fired at least the russian soldiers maintain their guard there and not allow that to happen. and so, i agree with you. there is something here that we just don't know. but to see the russian populous give favor to the wagner group as they moved into rostov and continued on that route towards moscow, that was hugely telling. i think in a couple of weeks and weeks to come, we will start to hear more about what went on in terms of the russian military. were they in favor of this?

were they in cahoots with the wagner group? or whether putin told them not to get involved in this particular fight. we just don't know. >> is there a sense at all, as you are kind of just thinking about this, that putin worries he does not have the loyalty of his own troops? right? and what that does to an authoritarian leader like vladimir putin who has been in charge for the past 23 years and was hopeful to be in charge for his life. >> you are on to something here. i will pull that string a little farther here. if you remember when the wagner group was in bakhmut, there was all type of rhetoric from prigozhin. talking negative about the russian military, talking negatively about the russian leadership. putin did not squash that. prigozhin had free rein, free rhetoric.

as he won the battle of bakhmut, the rhetoric continue to press up. the leader, the commander in chief did not stand by his own forces and squash that rhetoric and the point in which prigozhin was doing all his talking. if i were in the russian military, i would say my commander-in-chief doesn't have faith and confidence in me and he is not defending me as a regular army for us out here trying to win this war for him. >> retired lieutenant general, stephen twitty, we thank you sir. still ahead, everybody, a neighboring countries perspective. i will be joined by once adviser to the former president of georgia. up next, a deeper look at the wagner group and it's history in ukraine and africa as well. we will be right back. ight back. eer. all learning to save and spend their money with chase. the chef's cooking up firsts with her new debit card. hungry? -uhuh. the designer's eyeing sequins.

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back in the past 36 hours, a view all well, no have seen heightened international attention on prigozhin's wagner group. but who are they? my colleague richard lui's at the -- far reaching impacts it is already had. richard, take us through it. >> yasmin, as you've been talking all day in your show, the details of the wagner group army. when you look at all of them together, it is pretty clear why vladimir putin does not want to lose them. overall, there are three major military forces at the moment at putin's disposal, at least as of last week.

the largest group, the regular army, you are talking 50,000 roughly many of them being in the national minorities coming from poor areas and regions russia has annexed in recent times. the second military force would be that chechens old years, and the thousands believed to be. russian state media saying some 12,000 gathered to deploy to ukraine during this conflict. and has been talked, about the wagner group, it is the only private force at its height estimated to be as much as 50,000. the u.s. national security council spokesperson saying that four out of five of them are russian convicts. now that is today. but here's how they started. in 2014, wagner made its name by annexing the crimea from ukraine and founder yevgeny prigozhin denied his association with the group for years, even filing lawsuits against groups that made such claims. and then late last year, he had a change of heart for some reason.

he openly became the face of the private military group, including direct social media posts by him as he recruited at jails across the country and more. the hq is in st. petersburg, russia. interestingly here, this is despite a law that prohibits private military groups in russia. prigozhin's anti-u.s. efforts, though, they also include troll farms, which we've been talking about going back to 2016 in the election against the u.s. elections. and then this, year because of all this, the u.s. designated wagner is a criminal organization. here secretary of state antony blinken with more. >> keep in mind, both individuals responsible for terrible acts committed against the ukrainian people, also in the case of wagner, in country after country in africa. wherever webinar grows, death and exploitation follow. >> that explanation includes conflict in libya and central african republic as well as extorting national resources

and other african countries. analysts saying the group is structure to help authoritarian's conduct military operations without the typical government checks and balances that we typically see. which is why putin favors wagner's existent. wagner casualties are not, official they are not on the books. they can be of emitted from official death counts which is good for internal pr. while the u.s. estimates, for instance, as much as 50,000 wagner casualties since december, just since december, putin does not have to state those. other reasons that wagner works well for putin here, lower costs on rush or regular troops, it's an authoritarian's private army with fewer rules, which is why wagner forces can be brutal. they have made that brutality a major tactic to increase their effectiveness in the field. so, yasmin, taking all this into account, in the balance of power in ukraine, as you can see i've been talking about, it will shift in major ways one's

private military contractor leaves the stage. >> aside from i feel like the russian president right now weighing how he saves face with this whole thing and what he says next publicly, i imagine he's also thinking about another mercenary group in which he can in fact control and would lead that mercenary group considering prigozhin is now in belarus. because it is something that was integral to him and maintaining security for himself and his regime. richard lui thank you as always, my friend. coming up, a deal was reached with prigozhin, but what does it show about putin's strength? after the break, former u.s. ambassador to russia michael mcfaul on the leaders standing domestically and globally. for all the latest -- primetime lineup kicks off with alicia menendez at six pm eastern followed by ayman mohyeldin. then special weekend appearances from stephen wagner and stephanie ruhle to step up your evening. we will be right back.

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new questions in russia today after the most traumatic political development to take place in decades, russian president putin able to contain an unprecedented armed rebellion by his own military ally. but how devastating a blow is it to his authority and what impact will it have on the ongoing war in ukraine? joining me now is former u.s. ambassador to russia and msnbc international affairs analyst

michael mcfaul. ambassador michael mcfaul, you are one of the ones that was following nonstop over the last 48 hours as this whole entire thing played out. and one tweet after it has stood out for me that i want to read for folks. the lesson of the war in ukraine is clear. putin is more likely to negotiate an end to his war if he is looking -- louisiana battlefield. those who have argued that ukraine must not attack crimea for triggering escalation must now reevaluate that hypothesis. i want you to talk more about this first and then i have a challenge for you after. but tell me more about this first. >> throughout the course of this horrible invasion of ukraine, we have been having a debate in public and with the biden administration and around other governments in europe, always worrying about the fear of escalation. if we do this, putin will escalate. if we provide this weapon, putin will escalate. if we don't negotiate with him, give him some territory some even say, he has to have a face

saving off-ramp. and those are many of the analogies, rattling the corner, that's another one, right? i don't claim to know that i know what putin will do in any situation in ukraine, but what we just saw on the last 48 hours is he was tested, he said these guys were criminals, they were traitors and would be dealt with. you are showing the video right. now he was very tough in his rhetoric. five hours later, when he has the opportunity to escalate and to use force against the wagner mercenary's coming to moscow, which everyone expected, by the way, in russia, he chose to negotiate instead. i'm not saying that is a bad thing. i think it is great. it is proverbial to a civil war, but i think it really undermines this argument that if we do this, we do that, he's going to escalate. well, maybe and maybe not. and maybe some leaders, and we know this in history, of course, including our own american history, that leader shoes to negotiate not when they are at

stalemate or winning, but sometimes when they are losing. >> the problem i have with that, and by the way i might be totally wrong, is that it seems as if putin felt legitimately worried about his maintaining power in moscow and russia, right? he was feeling caged. it seems as if he understands that many members of the military have loyalties to prigozhin in his country and he understands it now more than ever. the question is, does putin think he is losing in ukraine? that he would be willing to negotiate when it comes to ukraine because his life is not in danger, his power, right now, is not in danger when it comes to the war in ukraine. >> you are absolutely right. he doesn't think he is losing in ukraine. he is not willing to negotiate now. in fact, he is just waiting it

out, and doubling down and hoping that support from the west and the united states in particular will change, especially after elections both here and in other countries. my point is that that is why, that -- f-16s, attackers, a long-range missiles to give ukrainians better means to push putin and even to threaten crimea so that it appears he would be losing, he would feel that he would be lose. he wand losing crimea, the thret of losing crimea, in my opinion, is the definition of feeling and the perception inside russia that they are losing the war. that might be the catalyst for negotiation. not just this incrementalism, this notion that there is a stalemate on the battlefield eventually, everybody will be exhausted and negotiate. wars sometimes and that way, i want to be clear. but they sometimes also and when one side feels they are losing and therefore they say

better to cut a deal now before things get even worse. that is what we just saw in russia in 48 hours and that suggests to me that that is at least one of the scenarios that could happen in ukraine. not today, but in weeks and months to come. >> former ambassador michael mcfaul, thank, you sir, appreciate it. up next, everybody, the wagner group leader, a look at who exactly yevgeny prigozhin is, and later on an nbc news poll out today showing how donald trump is faring in his reelection bid following his second criminal indictment. we'll be right back. l be right back. get a private 5g network. so you can do more than connect your business, you can make it even smarter. now ports can know where every piece of cargo is. and where it's going. (dock worker) right on time. (vo) robots can predict breakdowns and order their own replacement parts. (foreman) nice work. (vo) and retailers can get ahead of the fashion trend of the day with a new line tomorrow. with a verizon private 5g network, you can get more agility and security. giving you more control of your business. we call this enterprise intelligence. from the network america relies on.

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new insight this afternoon into the man who led the rebellion in russia. chief foreign correspondent richard engel has more on what might have driven yevgeny prigozhin to turn against vladimir putin. >> a senior u.s. official tells nbc news the best way to understand what's happening now in russia is a mafia power struggle. yevgeny prigozhin it is a cabo, a mid level and until recently loyal soldier who has risen through the ranks by doing special tasks for his boss, president putin. first, it was food. prigozhin only chain of restaurants, including the new haven in st. petersburg, which putin and early team used as a hanging out, earning him that nickname putin's chef. overtime, he learned to cater to putin's other needs. most americans know prigozhin

from the disinformation on their social media feeds. he founded a bought farm, the internet research agency that, according to the research department, so doubts about the legitimacy about the 2016 election, highlighted racial tensions in the u.s., and promoted donald trump. in 2022, prigozhin reinvented himself again into a commander of a mercenary army, the wagner group, supplementing russian troops in ukraine, which were failing on the battlefield. he recruited thousands of convicts, promising pardons in exchange for frontline service. thousands were sent to their deaths. according to the few who managed to escape, they were shot if they attempted to retreat. i asked ukraine's president zelenskyy about the group earlier this month. >> how do you describe wagner and what it is doing on the ground here? >> [interpreter] they are mercenaries and terrorists. they are just killers, he said.

prigozhin is also rich. he uses his private army to prop up dictators and africa. in particular the president of the central african republic. in exchange, taking gold and blood diamonds worth a half billion dollars a year, according to diplomats. but with money, power, and an armed force, prigozhin has made enemies. he accuses russia's defense minister and army chief driven by jealousy in treason of denying wagner fighters ammunition. and now, he wants revenge. after one of the most dramatic days in russia in decades, prigozhin reportedly agreed to some sort of exile in belarus, but why? was it his only way to survive and keep his lucrative businesses in africa? or is he just biting time? it is hard to believe this murky power struggle is over. >> that was nbc's richard engel with that reporting. at the top of the, hour does

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we are continuing our coverage of the ongoing situation in russia, but in terms of how neighboring countries should be responding, i will ask that of my next guest. molly mckew former adviser to the georgian president from 2009 to 2013. molly, good to talk to you. i spoke early this morning during a special coverage, i'm glad to have you back as always. i actually want to first start with georgia, right? looking as this is all unfolding in russia, whether or not it seems as if russian president vladimir putin has in fact been weakened as a leader, we know they were at war in 2008. russia took territory from georgia. how does georgia act now?

how do they react? what would you be advising a country like georgia? >> well, with the caveat that the georgian government i worked for is a very different one than the current georgian government, it was very much leading the charge toward europe and the one now, as you mentioned, is leaning back towards moscow for a decade, since february 2022 they have openly said this war in ukraine has nothing to do with us. really surprising for a country that is still 20% occupied by russia. they have made legislative insecurity decisions that are moving them away from the west and closer to russia. i think the advice to the georgian government at this point has to be to listen to their people, to listen to what zelenskyy has been saying to the georgian people. which is this is a mistake. you will leave yourself with absolutely no choices for the future of your nation than to be adrift and in some sort of strange oligarch led state.

if they don't understand what this moment really is for the u.s. and russia. >> i want to read for folks a tweet. you and i spoke about this a little bit this morning as well. i think it's important for us to talk about it now. y'all, quit looking for answers in moscow, the answers have to be with us, all of us. what we are willing to do, how we are willing to fight, everything else is just waiting on moscow like the last 30 years. let's talk more about this, molly. >> it's something we've talked about key over the past 18 months. it's my constant frustration, the questions we are always asking, what does putin think? what will putin do? what is happening in moscow? what will go on? i think the memes we saw in the past 48 hours of the popcorn, get your popcorn to watch the show between prigozhin and putin it's kind of this reflection of our overall mindset. we are really hoping, and by we, in this instance, i also mean western analysts, western

government officials, and not the state sporting russia but the ones a little further on, everybody is hoping something will happen in russia so we don't have to answer the question of how we deal with a destabilizing russia and how we achieve victory on the ukrainian battlefield with the current three quarters measures we are willing to support. how do we go beyond that? there is really tough questions where the action can be in our hands. but it requires an adaptation of mindset and a willingness to embrace opportunity and not just evaluate risks. and i think the ukrainians have been so good and elegant and sophisticated at showing us what it looks like when you take initiative to debunk russian myths and low oppression smoke and mirrors. and the west, especially washington, as a leader of this initiative, has to embrace that this is the moment to set boundaries for whatever russia comes next, that we not -- may not have influence and how

that emerges. but we can have influence in the containment of the decay, which is very much what is underway in russia now. >> we can argue that russia has destabilized right now. we are here, we are in this moment so how do you deal with it? >> i think what we saw in the past few days as we don't have great visibility all the time on what is going on. we don't have the immediate ability to predict who will be a victor in a situation or what the end state will be. i think what we saw is a system that has a lot of fragility, a lot of brittle news. what is sort of amazing is within that weak system, a weakening system of total control, putin still managed to pull this one out and survive. i think it gives us -- we really need to reevaluate sort of how we are looking at the end state and that was probably a mid point in what is happening in russia. but i think we really need to be prepared to not just analyze

minute by minute which fighter in the jar has the best seat today in russia, but to look at our own options in how we achieve victory in ukraine and how we determine the outcome of that crisis and set our own policies so moscow is not primary in our decision-making. >> something that has kept me up for the last night is, is prigozhin really just going to hang out in belarus? what richard engel just said when he wrapped his last piece, maybe he's just biting us time. where do you stand? >> it's a good question. it's absolutely a question. i think the summary and the angle piece is really important. we focused a lot on a wagner in ukraine, wagner in syria, wagner in libya, some of these foreign junk it's. the power base of wagner that prigozhin has built is really