do you expect that to happen? >> i don't expect him in the near term to say anything. i think the state media has already been directed to whitewash what happened over the next 48 hours. i think it will just continue until the next event. don't forget this comes two weeks on the heels of storm in belgorod. we are going to continue to see these forces going to russia. they're going to continue to be more chaos. you will shift to the next narrative that unfolds. >> olga lautman, thank you so much, appreciate it. that wraps up for me, everybody. i am yasmin vossoughian. you can catch me this tuesday, wednesday ten a.m.. friday at one pm as well. i'm gonna be all over the place. i'm also be back at the same share, same time, safe place, next weekend. so if you can't make it through the week, i will see you then. my friend amen picks up our special coverage right now as we await a press conference

from the u.s. on the tragedy. we'll be right back. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ >> hey, everyone. welcome to msnbc special coverage of the rebellion in russia. i am ayman mohyeldin in new york. more than 24 hours after a russian mercenary chief ordered his forces to end the revolt and retweet from their march toward moscow, many questions still remain about vladimir putin's grip on power, about the future of the war in ukraine, and about the impact of this crisis on stability across that region, as well as elsewhere around the world. here is what we know at this hour. russian mercenaries in the wagner group have withdrawn from the russian cities on the orders of its chief, yevgeny prigozhin, who declared an end to his rebellion yesterday. now, according to russian state media, prigozhin meanwhile, now headed to belarus, whose president, alexander lukashenko,

helped negotiate that de-escalation. as for vladimir putin and the ongoing war in ukraine, the russian leader expressed confidence in his plans to continue that war in a prerecorded address that aired on russian state television earlier today. but u.s. secretary of state tony blinken told chuck talk this morning that the events of the past 72 hours have exposed putin's weakness. >> now what we've seen is russia having to defend moscow, its capital, against mercenaries of its own making. so in and of itself, that's extraordinary. and in so doing, we've also seen rise to the surface profound questions about the very premises for this russian aggression against ukraine that prigozhin surfaced very publicly, as well as a direct challenge to putin's authority. so, i think we've seen more cracks emerge in the russian facade. >> now, the white house says president biden spoke today with ukrainian president

volodymyr zelenskyy about the developments in russia. according to a readout from that call, president biden reaffirmed the u.s. support for ukraine and its ongoing counteroffensive. it comes as nbc news has confirmed reports that u.s. spies actually learned in mid june that prigozhin was planning an armed challenge to russia's military leaders. the congressional leaders were actually briefed about it earlier in the week. we have got a team of reporters, experts, and analysts to break it all down for us. starting from moscow, nbc chief international correspondent keir simmons. in kyiv, nbc foreign correspondent ralph sanchez. and from washington, d.c., nbc news white house correspondent allie raffa. take us to what you have seen. it's midnight in moscow. you are now they're on the ground. -- hold on one second -- guys, we're just getting some breaking news, and we want to come back to you in just a moment. but we are following this breaking news out of boston that you want to go to. ♪ ♪ ♪ >> to speak with family members

directly, for those that did not have the opportunity to meet with us, i extend my deepest condolences on behalf of the united states coast guard, and the members of the unified command. as i have continue to stress throughout, this case has been extremely complex, involving a coordinated international inter agency, and private sector response, and an unforgiving and difficult to access region of the ocean. in total, they unified command directed 11 surface assets, five subsurface assets, for air assets, and completed 39 search and rescue missions, totaling almost 13,000 square miles. and while the outcome was not what any of us had hoped for, i am very proud of the team of

responders who put forth their best effort to locate the submersible. while in canada, i met with, and personally thanked, members of the canadian coast guard and the canadian armed forces, who demonstrated the utmost professionalism and expertise throughout the response. i extended my gratitude to all the professional responders who worked diligently to evaluate all leads, mobilize resources, and maintain hope will. their devotion to duty in the face of many complex challenges ensure that we remain always ready to conduct search and rescue, or rescue operations if needed. the discovery of the titan submersible wreckage mark at the conclusion of the search and rescue aspect of this incident. the coast guard has officially

convened a marine board of investigation into the loss of the submersible and the five people on board. and that investigation will be led by chief investigator, captain jason neubauer. so, at this time, i will turn over the mic to him. captain neubauer? >> thank you, admiral mauger. but afternoon. before i discuss the coast guard's investigation, i want to expect my deepest condolences to the loved ones of the five individuals who perished in this tragic incident. my team and myself have been investigating this since we heard that initial reports of loss of communications. and my entire team wanted to express their condolences also. as a senior investigator, i have witnessed the personal impact associated with these types of events.

and my primary goal is to prevent a similar occurrence, by making the necessary recommendations to enhance the safety of the maritime domain worldwide. upon receiving notification that the submersible titan has suffered catastrophic failure with the loss of the five lives on board, the coast guard declared a major casualty, and convened an investigation, commonly referred to as and mbi on june 23rd. i'm serving the chair of that investigation. and mbi is the highest level investigation the coast guard conducts, and it enables the u.s. to fully leverage investigative resources, coast guard wide, and capitalize on the extensive network of cooperative relationships with international maritime administrations and organizations. the mbi is currently in its initial evidence collection phase, including the salvage

operations at the incident site. and evidence collection in coordination with canadian authorities in the port of st. john's, newfoundland. after the unseen evidence collection efforts conclude, we will typically hold a formal hearing to gather additional witness testimony and evidence in the setting that's available to the public. during the course of the mbi, the board will first and primarily work to determine the cause of this marine casualty and the five associated deaths. the mbi, however, is also responsible for accountability aspects of the incident. and it can make recommendations to the proper authorities to pursue civil or criminal sanctions as necessary. however, any subsequent enforcement activities would be pursued under several investigations. the mbi is also working in close coordination with other national, domestic, and

international investigative authorities, including the united states national transportation safety board, the canadian transportation safety board, french marine casualties investigation board, and the united kingdom marine accident investigation branch. upon completion of this investigation, the mbi will issue a report to the common out of the coast guard, with the evidence collected, the facts established, its conclusions and recommendations. the final report will also be shared with the domestic and international maritime authorities i mentioned. and the international maritime organization, the imo to help improve the safety framework for submersible operations worldwide. i will not take any questions. thank you. you. [inaudible] >> the mbi leverages coast

guard resources nationwide. and also, our international partners to collect -- collectively collect evidence. right now, we do have ongoing operations. i mentioned two areas, the onsite of the accident wreckage site. we have an ongoing salvage operation. and we're also currently conducting interviews in the port of st. johns. at this time, that is a priority of the investigation, it is to uncover items from the seaboard. we have already mapped the accident site in the field, so the other factors would be part of the investigation, and i don't get too deep into these circumstances. yes, sir. i listed several international maritime authorities in my

opening statement, including the canadian transportation safety board, the uk accident investigation branch. and parties under international protocols, if they have a substantial issue, interest in the investigation, they can request to be part of the coast guard supreme court. and we have accepted that often, citizenship of the fatalities on board would automatically make that international country, or maritime administration -- >> we're gonna go ahead and pause that press briefing from the u.s. coast guard it was just beginning an update on the beginning of an investigation following the implosion of that submersible taking place at the site of the titanic. we will keep an eye on that for you. if there's any news that comes out of that, we will certainly update you with it. but we do want to go back to our pressing and breaking story, over the past 24 hours, the situation developing in russia. we were just about to cause to our correspondent keir simmons

who is in moscow now. keir, my apologies to you for interrupting you. we had to take that really quickly. i just wanted to get a read from you on the developments there in moscow. you are now they're on the ground. give us a sense of what the atmosphere is like, and whether or not there is a sense of anxiety setting in on moscow, or whether or not this was a situation that has not reverberated as much as we thought outside of russia. >> reporter: i think there is a sense of bewilderment, ayman. i don't think people really know what to make of it. you may see behind me in this live shot that the now all too familiar z supporting the russian military, up again on the building back there. just as it has been through this whole, what putin calls, special military operation. what do we read into that? it's possible there's speculation tonight that president putin may feel forced to escalate in ukraine.

now, the question of course being whether or not he actually has the capability to do that. he may feel forced to crack down here in russia if it's possible for him to crack down further. so, as regarding the unintended consequences, i think it's very much applicable here, just in terms of what's happening on the streets, ayman, you can see, too, that this is a busy thoroughfare here in moscow. and you yourself have been here before. i've seen president putin travel to the kremlin along this street many times. now, it is busy. people are going about their business, it is business as usual, which i think the message of the kremlin is likely to try to share in the coming days, while beneath the surface, that there is going to be deep, deep tension. >> keir, speaking of vladimir putin, do we have any sense of whether or not he may be speaking to the country, and the idea about his visibility in the coming days and weeks, and events he's planning on attending that may address some

of these concerns that you're talking about? >> reporter: clearly, we're gonna hear from him at some point, ayman. what he plans to do is coincide the message that he wants to broadcast before he actually broadcasts. we are hearing from social media some different narratives if you like. and those can be sometimes, particularly commentators, there can be an indication of where the thinking is going on the russian elite. for example, they are talking about russia being unified again, that they are calling off this insurrection as a sign of maturity, of these negotiations that could happen. we don't know, though, where prigozhin is, the leader of that wagner private military group. he's supposed to be going to exile in belarus. what happens to his tens of thousands of soldiers? i mean there are many, many questions here in moscow tonight. and i think it's pretty difficult actually to predict

where things will be here in russia in the days and weeks and months ahead. >> all right, keir, stay with me for a second. let's cross over from russia to kyiv, ukraine, where raf sanchez is. the big question i think in the past 24 hours, as it relates to ukraine, is how will what happened inside russia impact what ukraine does from here on out, if at all? give us a sense of whether or not that discussion and those questions are being answered in kyiv tonight. >> reporter: yeah, ayman, just the last few seconds, the air raid sirens have been a blaring here in kyiv. we haven't seen any explosions yet, no sign of russian missiles or drones. but it's a reminder that even with the extraordinary events of the last 36 hours and russia, the war continues to rage here in ukraine. officials in kyiv have been hoping that the chaos on the russian side might translate into some kind of breakdown of military discipline on the battlefield. we have not yet seen that,

ayman. the russian lines have continued to hold in the south and east of this country, even as ukraine's counteroffensive continues, and even with all of those walking or mercenaries crossing over from their positions in southern ukraine, into russia, taking over the city of rostov-on-don. so, at this point, there is no indication that the ukrainians have any major way been able to capitalize on the chaos, on the russian side, turn it into some kind of advantage on the battlefields. as you said earlier zelenskyy did speak to biden in the last couple of hours. they discussed the situation in russia, the readout from both sides did not go into any detail about what they said we do know that u.s. intelligence officials who were picking up some signs that this may be about to happen during the week. we don't know if they share that intelligence with their ukrainian counterparts. president zelenskyy also thanking president biden for the patriot missiles needed to

defend kyiv and other cities. t missiles>> let me pick up on t that you brought up, to bring allie into this conversation about that readout from the white house. and not just the white house, we also understand the defense secretary lloyd austin spoke with his counterpart, secretary blinken, on the phone working his diplomatic channels. what is the overall messaging coming out of washington towards kyiv, towards the allies in europe over these developments, allie? >> reporter: yeah, well, the overall messages for the most part that this is not over. that this is still a developing situation that is very much still developing. and because of that, we've seen this cautious approach from administration officials, really working the phones behind the scene, making sure all of the coronation that is being done with our allies is done privately, so they don't get ahead of a situation prematurely. we saw that readout sent just a few minutes ago from the white house, talking about the phone call that biden shared with ukrainian president zelenskyy,

as raf mentioned, the two of them talking about the situation in russia. zelenskyy speaking with biden about the continued support for ukraine as their counteroffensive continues. he thanked him for a continued air support. the two of them discussed potentially more military aid. he also referenced the upcoming nato summit next month. the stakes of that summit certainly raised in light of this news in russia. we also heard from secretary of state anthony blinken who was on several sunday shows this morning, really talking about overall, what this does to putin's grip of power over russia. he talked about how this rebellion has shown cracks in that power. he also talked about what this means for, you know, going forward, how much that white house officials are going to be looking into, and how much is still unknown at this point. so, we know that at this point,

senior national security adviser jake sullivan has been briefing president biden regularly at camp david where he's been this weekend. his team is expected to return here to the white house tonight. but i would expect that story to take up a whole new life, really, starting tomorrow morning when more eyes are on this, certainly more questions are being raised as to really what happens now as this continues to develop. >> and certainly folks on capitol hill will also weigh in on that in the coming days. allie raffa at the white house, raf san jose in kyiv, nbc's keir simmons life for us in moscow to start us off, this hour, as we've been saying, there's a lot of questions we are learning more about what the u.s. actually knew of precautions rebellion. and as we mentioned, a source familiar with the matter tells nbc news that in fact u.s. intelligence was aware that prigozhin had been planning a challenge to russia's senior military leaders and briefed congressional leaders last week. secretary of state anthony blinken reacted to their rebellion on meet the press this morning.

watch. >> i think it's been no secret to many people over many months and that these tensions were rising. they were borrowing. prigozhin was already saying rather extraordinary things about russia's conduct of the war in ukraine, and going directly at russia's military leadership. this was a rising storm. but i'm not gonna comment on the intelligence itself. comment on >> joining us now is colin clark, director of the research for intelligence security consultants for. they just released a special report on the wagner group, the evolution of putin's private army. colin, great to see you again. let's start with that revelation that we are hearing from sources that the u.s. intelligence community had -- if you will -- inclination, perhaps evidence, that prigozhin was planning an armed challenge to russia's military leaders. a, how confident are you in that. and, b, what does that do in terms of changing the u.s.'s

understanding of something like this. should they have responded perhaps differently, had they anticipated a possible military challenge, a direct military challenge? >> well, thanks for having me. one, i would say, i think it's probably accurate that the u.s. had some exquisite intelligence on this, you know, scenario that unfolded over the past 48 hours. look, we've had really good intelligence on what's been transpiring with russia and ukraine from the beginning, from the very, you, know jump-start. and this was no different. and the u.s. is really just taking the stance of we are not gonna interfere. we don't want to be blamed or associated with this. let's allow the chaos to flourish organically, so we can watch, plan, and strategize. i think that's exactly what the u.s. has done. also, you know, more emphasis to help support ukraine, to ramp up support, take advantage of this and use it as leverage. >> help our viewers understand what the wagner group is, what it does, what it does not. i think some people watching this are wondering why would a russian military need a

mercenary force that's made up of russian citizens, basically, as opposed to foreign fighters? and why, more importantly, would the russians use them to do something that the russian military would not want to do? it's not exactly, the russian military is not a beacon of human rights and democracy, or law-abiding -- what is it that the wagner group can do on the battlefield that russian soldiers may be prohibited from doing, or don't want to do? >> well, part of it is they don't count in the casualty count, right? so when the russians sell this war domestically, and they say, we only lost two soldiers in syria, well, they are not counting the wagner guys. the same goes for ukraine. even though russian citizens are losing their sons in this conflict, and in conflicts all around the world, i think the fact that as you mentioned, wagner's been fairly accused of human rights abuses, war crimes, crimes against humanity. the russians use this kind of thin veil of plausible deniability. although, to me, that veil has been vanquished long ago.

this isn't us. these are private mercenaries that are doing this. and they are there to do the dirty work. the russians sent mercenaries to various countries, fragile states, to protect military interests. and they do so with no strings attached, right? these guys are willing to do, you know, hard-core counter insurgency operations in access to mines. and they will do whatever it takes in order to protect whatever regime, dictator, warlord, or strongman that is in power. >> he wrote an article about the potential impact of the wagner group if it were to be integrated into russia's military structure. and apparently, from what i have had over the past 24 hours, it was one of the major issues that angered prigozhin about sergei shoigu, the russian minister of defense. apparently, earlier this month, or maybe a couple of weeks ago, he wanted to officially integrate wagner under the command and control of the russian military. and that really escalated the rift between them, even more

publicly than what we have seen over the months before. but why was he so opposed to that? why would that be such a catalyst for turning his guns on to the russian military? >> look, i think like many people, he enjoys autonomy. he felt that in some ways, shoigu was trying to take credit for wagner's gains. they blood a lot on the battlefield. look, this is still a mercenary organization. but in terms of, you know, they put it all out there on the russian side. they fought, blood, and died. and this is the lowest of the low, and prigozhin sees himself, i think he's also a former contact, he sees himself and his past in these folks. and really, russia can't operate without them. and so, the fact that shoigu is now trying to bring wagner and prigozhin under his control, i think, really ruffles feathers. there is also the moneymaking element. you know, prigozhin's skill in finding different ways to take advantage of resources, gold,

uranium, oil and gas, all over parts of sub-saharan africa, the middle east, and elsewhere. and i think he does not want to oversight on that. he wants to keep things running as they were. and i think he actually listens the fact that wagner troops in ukraine have been used as cannon fodder. he sees this organization as more elite than that. >> let me ask you about the u.s. and all of this. you know, there is this devils bargain right now, perhaps, that the u.s. is wanting vladimir putin to be weakened, wanting vladimir putin off the stage, so to speak, in russia. but at the same time, i don't think they want prigozhin or his mercenary force to be those running russia or being involved in any capacity to do with russia. what do you make of the u.s.'s strategy here? joe biden last year said, and it kind of caught a lot of people by surprise, vladimir putin can't continue to govern russia. and some people thought, does that mean the u.s. is now pursuing the regime change, when they want that? i think they cooled off that

and they walked that a bit. today, people watching this are thinking, should the u.s. try to exploit this for their own gain and their strategic objectives in weakening vladimir putin, or should they not? >> look, we don't have a good track record with regime changes in the united states, whether it's gaddafi, or you can point to any number of examples historically. even where we are doing the right thing, like getting rid of saddam, you end up causing harm -- think about what colin powell calls the rule, you break it, you own it. i don't think we need to be in charge of owning anything and russia. frankly, there's also the issue of the devil you do versus the devil you don't. there is nothing guaranteed that if we get rid of putin, we would get vladimir putin to 0.0, 35 years old, and more of a nationalist, if that is possible. i think we are really careful about trying to interfere in russian domestic politics. i think the u.s. is doing the right thing by supporting ukraine, getting our allies to support ukraine. and, look, you know, the fact

that we are steadfast and that support, and that russian command and control is crumbling, we are on the right path. it's time to be patient, you know, keep support together. and, you know, i think this really proves a lot of the naysayers wrong. the russians are really crumbling and buckling under the stress of what's going on over the past year plus. and, they have performed really poorly on the battlefield. this is the kind of -- >> you teed up our next conversation perfectly. colin clark, i really appreciate your time and your insights on this. i can't think of a better person to speak to. at the height of the rebellion by the wagner mercenary forces, moscow declared monday a non working day in the russian capital. but today, there were very few signs of any counterterrorism measures. there were crowds downtown. people seemingly back to regular life, as we heard from our correspondent there. there were some roadblocks, checkpoints that were in fact being removed. here to discuss the politics of this crisis and the u.s. response is congressman colin allred of texas, a number of the foreign affairs committee.

congressman, great to have you on this show. let me start with what you knew going into this. were you one of those that received a briefing from the u.s. intel community about prigozhin? or maybe you don't want to talk about the briefing specifically, but did you have any insight that prigozhin was somebody who was turning his anger, or perhaps his guns, towards moscow? perh>> i don't think it matterso was briefed or not. i think we all saw the tension rising with prigozhin, the comments he was making about the russian, sort of, high military leadership. this was more of a mutiny than a coup. but it was obviously, you know, shocking. and i think the course of events as it played out, i'm not sure anybody could have predicted that. >> let me pick up on the point that our previous guest, colin, was talking about, and that is what is the u.s. strategic objective here. what should the u.s. be doing as they watch these events unfold? what is the major or number one priority from your vantage

point, that concerns the united states right now? >> stay the course. stay the course. our strategy is working. the ukrainians are advancing. we are putting tremendous pressure on putin and the entire structure of, you know, kind of corrupt folks he's rounded himself with. what we are seeing, i think, the first -- but they've been there. and it's been showing up. and so, we are doing the right thing. the ukrainians are succeeding. what was a special operation that was gonna last, you know, a week tops, now for the first time since the 1990s, russian violence is still inside their borders. stay the course. this is working. this has been a strategic failure for putin, which many of us said in the beginning, it would be. >> if they stay the course approach continues, and russia continues to weaken, and we see another direct challenge to vladimir putin, wouldn't you be concerned of a destabilized

nuclear country descending into eternal strife? ding int >> you put your finger right on it. this is the country's largest nuclear arsenal in the world. at most of their nukes actually work. and so, every western capital, everyone around the world is gonna have to be concerned about what's happening here because this has been the discussion we've had for sometime. what would come after putin? it's not necessarily true that it would be somebody better. as your previous guest said, it could be somebody who's even more and ultranationalist, or someone even worse. and so, the nuclear command and control i'm sure is exactly what the white house and the situation room and at camp david, what they're talking about this weekend over the last few days. >> let me ask you about what happens on capitol hill. there have been members of the republican party who want to cut back aid to ukraine. you know, including speaker mccarthy, who said no more blame checks. that's what happened over the

past 24 hours, the events over the past 24 hours, does that vindicate the biden administration's policy, as you said, staying the course? will this change any minds among republicans and congress that this ratatouille of helping and aiding ukraine has weakened russia? >> i hope my colleagues are paying attention and they are the ones who have been questioning our aides and ukraine. i hope they're paying attention. i hope they are feeling a bit of a shame. but i doubt it. i don't think it's about whether or not our strategy has been successful in ukraine. it's more of a pro putin ideology. and so that's actually the root of the problem that i think many of us unfortunately, we have some folks in the united states congress who do want to see if vladimir putin succeed, maybe because they think they'll help them politically. i don't know. obviously, this is evidence in my opinion of the tremendous success of the ukrainian military, of their political leadership, and of our support and it's allow that to happen. and we should all look at this

and say yes, these are obviously shocking events. tying back to that we force them into this, by putin's decision, to invade a free democracy that was their neighbor, and to do all these war crimes and terrible things that they've gone over the past year and 70 days. >> let's look at the politics for a moment. there's a new nbc poll that's out today, and a hypothetical rematch between president biden and former president trump, biden get support from 49% of registered voters, trump gets 45%. biden's lead, excuse me, is within the margin of error. what is your big takeaway of a potential biden trump rematch and this latest poll? >> i just think that it shows that most americans are ready to move past the incredibly divisive period of politics that donald trump has represented. i am running for senate against someone who i think also represents that, in ted cruz in texas. he's somebody who, i think, has

been an avatar in many ways, some of the worst parts of our politics. and folks out there, i hope they agree to go to colin allred not come, and polls show that there is a national urge for it, certainly in texas as well. >> texas congressman colin allred, always a pleasure, sir. thank you so much for your time. >> thanks, amen. >> up next, how much damage did yesterday's chaos due to vladimir putin inside russian on the world stage. and what does this all mean for the future of the war in ukraine. we've got a great panel of experts standing by to answer all of that and much more. stick around. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ (vo) it's red hot deal days from verizon! where you can get the incredible iphone 14 pro max on us with myplan. so you get exactly what you want and only pay for what you need. act now and get iphone 14 pro max on us when you switch. for a limited time only. it's your verizon.

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for more on this, i'm joined by illegal, pentagon correspondent for the new york times, and msnbc political analyst. peter strzok, former fbi counterintelligence agent and adjunct professor at georgetown university school of foreign service. and historian kimberly vernon whose work focuses on the u.s., russia, and ukraine. great to have all three of you with us. celine, let's start with you. what is the pentagon thinking over the past 24 hours about russia, and how concerned are they about these developments on two fronts, the political, and i guess they military fall out of this -- but more importantly, the lack of russian military resistance to this mercenary group that was able to move with lightning speed up to 120 miles from the capitol. >> hi, ayman. that's for having me. i think if this has shown anything of what you've seen, the events that have unfolded over the past two days or so have shown exactly how overstretched the russian military is in ukraine.

you saw no resistance, as you just said, as the wagner group zoomed up the highway towards moscow. there wasn't a sense that there was, you know, you are about to get a bunch of russian -- that they were about to be met by russian military troops before they got to moscow. and that's because the russian military is overstretched right now. they can barely handle ukraine, let alone the wagner group, which they should. i mean, prigozhin, over the past months, has been sort of forecasting that he's about to make a move. u.s. intel agencies were aware that something was about to happen for several days, and possibly, weeks before. and so, this isn't something that should have come as that much of a surprise. sergei shoigu, who is the russian defense minister was, and valery gerasimov, who is the russian general, the chief of armed forces, the russian

chief of staff, the equivalent of general mark milley, are both loathed, hated by prigozhin. those three men have been at each other's throats for months, if not years now. and so, this kind of was coming to a head, though there was a bit of surprise to see just how big a move prigozhin made. you know, according to defense officials, a couple of home i talked to in the last day or so, this isn't something that's a complete surprise. but it is another sign of just how overstretched the russian military has become. >> what is the thinking inside the pentagon, helene, i don't know if you had a chance yet to speak to your sources specifically about whether or not it presents at window of opportunity for the fight in ukraine? is the military, is the pentagon assessing that there might be an opportunity here worth exploiting on the battlefield, or will they continue with the current counteroffensive as is? >> it's such a good question.

it's the first thing i asked yesterday, like, what does this mean? does this mean ukraine -- i kept thinking that the ukrainian troops would try to take advantage of this, maybe yesterday, and try to push for a big breakthrough, or something -- bust through some of those russian defensive lines, find a hole that they could punch through, while moscow was so distracted. you did not see that happen. but there is a strong belief that that is something that, you know, right now, ukraine is still probing all these different points of pressure within the russian lines of defense, and looking for a place where they could find vulnerabilities. at the moment, there seems to be a still, let's wait and see. the counteroffensive is still unfolding. but the question you ask is one that i ask, i did not get an answer to that yesterday or today. and i think that right now, officials are still trying to assess where we go from here. >> peter, yevgeny prigozhin is somebody who the fbi knows.

he's somebody who's been on the radar of the fbi for years, both for what he's done overseas, and certainly what he's tried to do here in the united states with u.s. politics, and interfering in our elections. how much of a threat is he to latimer putin now? how dangerous of a man is he generally? what do we know about him? >> well, ayman, that's a great question. i mean, certainly, prigozhin is known to u.s. law enforcement and the u.s. intelligence community here in the night states, including his involvement with the disinformation attacks on the 2016 elections. he's wanted right now by the fbi, and there's a reward of up to $350,000 for information leading to his arrest because of his attacks on democracy, on the part of vladimir putin and russia. make no mistake about it, he's certainly not a friend of the u.s. -- [inaudible] >> it looks like we have lost our connection with peter strzok. we will try to reestablish that and continue that conversation.

kimberly, let me ask you about these typical reference that has been made in the past 24 hours, including from the russian president himself, where he had to give that impromptu speech to the nation yesterday morning. he made references to russia's own history of civil strife, and what has that done in the past. some have compared events of the last 24 hours to what we saw 30 years ago, with the collapse of the soviet union, and the attempted coup against mikael gorbachev at the time. you know history better than i do. where does this fit in russian history chapter of what we just saw? >> i think what we saw and russia for the past 24 hours is less 1991, and more 1917. it's more similar in my thinking to general cornell lowe who tried to overthrow the soviets, one of the bolsheviks in 1917, and he ends up flattering, nothing really comes of it. he marches his troops to st. petersburg, and nothing happens.

a year later, he dies in the russian civil war. i think that's actually similar to what we saw. we saw prigozhin taking those columns of wagner groups who completely surrendered, supported him. he went to rostov-on-don, with very little russian civilian anger against him. they even celebrated him. but when he got to moscow he stopped. why? because it doesn't have that meant, support necessary to overtake moscow. i think it's important to realize because we hear the swan lake references that this is the end of putin. but we haven't actually seen that. what we saw prigozhin do was constantly attacked the ministry of defense. we know he hates shoigu. we know he hates valery gerasimov. but when it comes to his relationship with vladimir putin, we haven't seen -- i think we have to keep that front and center. this isn't really like 1991 where people were very angry at gorbachev, did not have yeltsin in the links. this is in the same situation. i would have to go back to

1917. >> fair enough. i think we've established our connection with peter. peter, let me bring you back to finish your thought, what you were saying earlier about prigozhin, what we know about him, the potential risks he proposes to both the u.s. and vladimir putin now? >> absolutely. so, prigozhin certainly, going back to 2016, and years before that, was actively engaged in attacking the u.s. electoral process. he is currently wanted by the department of justice. he's been indicted. there is a 250,000 dollar award leading to his arrest. this, he certainly no ally of the united states. when it comes to putin, of course, he, his activity has weakened putin. but russia needs the wagner group, whether or not prigozhin is in charge of it, what the group does around the world, whether it's in north africa, whether it's in syria, sub-saharan africa, central africa, there is a significant amount of activity that they do strategically for russia that generates revenue and generates resources. so, if you remove prigozhin, if

you knew it or the wagner group, it puts a lot of activities that russia needs or wants to do back into the hands of folks like the gru, russian military intelligence. it's a sort of a delicate balance that while certainly prigozhin, i don't know what his near or long term future looks like, it would be a mistake to think that things are settled right now. they are absolutely not. it is not the case where, you know, russia can easily, or even would want to separate and december wagner because they just play an important role in russia's larger strategic interests. >> peter, as a former intel official, what would you be looking out for in terms of how vladimir putin behaves in the next days and weeks, if you are looking at his profile and you are thinking he's now withstood or withheld this challenge, he's obviously not doing very well in the war in ukraine. his political opposition, some have been arrested, others have been killed abroad. what is the profile that you

are watching of a man, perhaps being slowly corner? >> well, ayman, that's a great question. certainly to the extent that he is relying on security services. the question is it appears that the united states intelligence committee knew about this plot certainly a week or two ago. the question is what did putin's counter intelligence people know? did they detect the same information? were they aware of the same sort of planning that was going on by prigozhin, that prigozhin intended, not only to launch this activity, but to make a speech one, or try to make a speed one up to moscow. and if those counter intelligence agencies within russia knew that, did putin know about it. if they didn't know about it your heads are gonna roll. why is it that somebody disclose this close to the inner circle was somehow conducting activity and planning in a way that putin is not aware of. i think you are going to see, and it's very interesting, the head of the gru, they were

certainly very quiet. you saw some military commanders making public statements over the weekend. but the security services who are in many ways, it appears, in the background, kind of watching to see how it unfolds. i would think that putin to the extent he can, is going to try and reassert his control over the security services that question is whether or not he back into that. or who they are reporting to and again there is this power dynamic sort of continues to unfold, where those alliances makeshift. li ance make>> kimberly, it does history teaches us here? he's a man who's been challenged, a man who may be getting closer to desperation in the sense that the war is not going well for him. he needs to turn things around. his military leaders are not performing. maybe they will learn in the next couple of days that his own intelligence services totally missed what the u.s. was able to pick up. what is history teaching us about how he goes from here? >> we have to auctions really

from russian history we can look to. we can think about stolen, 1941, where the not seize invaded the soviet union. and then, it came out of world war ii as a result of the second most powerful country in the world revered by his people. on the other side, we can also look at gorbachev after the coup, and how a week he looked. ve the collapse of the soviet union. we can go either way. and we know putin is a student of history. and i think he will probably go more towards trying to consolidate his power but whether or not he would be successful, that's we don't know. >> helene, let me play with you what republican congressman said to my colleague chuck todd this morning on meet the press. >> i think this is weakening russia for maybe a decade to come, which is good for the baltics countries. it's good for poland. and it would be different if putin was a peaceful neighbor. >> based on your reporting and

your sources, is that an assessment shared as well by the pentagon? >> it is certainly not good for putin. vladimir putin has had a really bad few days upon a really bad year and a half. and the way the pentagon and the pentagon officials have looked at it is this has been a bad time for putin. putin has survived challenges. putin, he has been around for 27 years. he is -- we don't know at this point how this plays out. but people at the pentagon seem to be very cautious about sort of extrapolating where we go from here, where vladimir putin goes from here. it hasn't been a very good few days for either gerasimov or shoigu either. but i can't help but think that

the relationship is -- not that i think that the relationship between prigozhin and putin, which was tight, even when prigozhin was challenging a generals. and the defense officials within russia, he didn't criticize putin. but putin called him treasonous yesterday and then disappeared. the fact that that the russian people did not see vladimir putin standing firm. they heard from him briefly, and then, nobody knew where he was. nobody had any idea. it is just not a good look. he's at a horrible point, horrible few days. and it's hard to imagine how he doesn't come out of this week or. i'm gonna be fascinated to see how this plays out over the next few days, few weeks, or even the next few days. >> i was gonna say so many moving pieces, so many unanswered questions still remain answered any questions about the future of yevgeny prigozhin as he makes his way to belarus. helene cooper, peter strzok, thank you very much. we'll be right back with our

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special coverage of russia in crisis, the really in that pose the biggest threat to vladimir putin's rule in the 2023 years he has been in power. i'm ayman mohyeldin in new york. at this hour, the kremlin says mercenary chief yevgeny prigozhin is en route to belarus. the military revolt he orchestrated and terminated now over. but he will leave russia and its leadership in a state of chaos with a lot of questions. vladimir putin, prigozhin's former friend and ally, is pu