increase in honey bee losses in part due to a deadly parasite. according to one survey, small and large commercial beekeepers are experiencing colony loss at different times of the year. still the department of agriculture says the bee population remains relatively stable. we'll be watching that, and i know what jonathan lemire, you want us to do right now, at least what you want me to do. buzz off. >> well done. mika, i can't top that. that's the perfect sendoff for the morning. well done. >> that does it for us this morning. chris jansing and katy tur pick up the coverage right now. now. good morning. it is 10:00 a.m. eastern. i'm chris jansing from new york. >> i'm katy tur with special coverage of what's happening

inside russia. right now vladimir putin is still in charge. in fact, he might have just spoken for the first time since the attempted rebellion over the weekend. we'll tell you what he said and why there are questions about when and where this new video of putin the kremlin released this morning has come from. it has been a confusing and volatile 72 hours. longtime ally yevgeny prigozhin began and quickly called off an attempt to overtake the military leaders. how close did he get? why suddenly did he turn around? putin is known for viciously crushing dissent. why exactly did he let prigozhin go? the warlord hasn't been publicly seen or heard from since he apparently fled on saturday. we have reporters in moscow, ukraine and the white house along with experts on russia,

putin and prigozhin. >> whatever happens in russia will have a profound impact not just on the stability of that country, but far-reaching consequences for the war in ukraine and well beyond that. it can affect everything from the stock market to u.s. relations with china and saudi arabia to places where prigozhin's wagner group held important sway. how can the u.s. and its allies capitalize on any possible diplomatic opening? how can they help ukraine if there's a military opening here. first things first, where are these men really right now? prigozhin, master communicator hasn't been heard from since he agreed to end his march on moscow, even after russian citizens cheered him on. he had seemingly agreed to exile in belarus, but where exactly is he? at the heart of all of these unanswered questions, could this

be a turning point for russia and its war? >> that right there is where we will begin. the leader of the short-lived rebellion agreeing to exile in belarus. the future of the situation in ukraine is still uncertain. our own keir simmons, nbc's chief international correspondent is in russia with an inside look at what is going on. keir, the first question, the biggest one is where is vladimir putin? >> reporter: we don't know, katy, honestly. that doesn't mean the russian government doesn't know where he is, of course. but what we can say is that video you showed of president putin talking to young engineers, not at any moment mentioning the rebellion that russia just lived through at any time, that does suggest that video was potentially recorded before that uprising too place and that the kremlin has put it out just this morning. then the defense minister,

shoigu, the man who prigozhin, the leader of the wagner group, was trying to unseat, a video of him has been released by the defense ministry. apparently continuing to oversee what russia calls its special military operation in ukraine. it is mute. again, there are suggestions that that video may have been recorded before the mutiny took place over the weekend or the aborted mutiny. so there is an attempt here in russia by the government clearly to kind of give a picture of business as usual. it is a holiday today, a quickly organized holiday because of what happened over the weekend. it may be that that's an explanation for why we aren't hearing directly from many of those members of the russian government. we have heard from sergey lavrov, the foreign minister. he again confirming this news that allegedly the wagner boss, prigozhin is going to belarus,

that he effectively has been exiled to belarus. the president of belarus, alexander lukashenko -- president putin who on a number of occasions have helped other leaders, often autocrats to stay in power, needing help from a leader outside russia himself through the weekend. we heard from lavrov, suggesting saying the u.s. ambassador did reach out and said the u.s. has not interfered in any sense and looking for reassurance about russia's nuclear capabilities. defense minister shoigu is in charge, as well as president putin, of almost half the world's nuclear warheads that russia has. so lavrov making that clear and also saying something else which i think is interesting and perhaps might be a good indication of what we might hear from the russians looking ahead,

spinning, spinning that they are looking to whether or not the u.s. had anything to do with what happened. that's very hard -- clearly that's just going to be spin, if that is what russia began to try to say. what we've seen over the weekend is prigozhin, this man who was an ally of putin leading this group of mercenaries, getting close to here in moscow, that seems to be an all-russian affair. >> so what exactly do we know about what happened here, keir? the only thing i'm seeing right now that i can see visually, even though it's a hole day, there is traffic behind you, in contrast to basically a shutdown we saw over the weekend. otherwise, what do we know about the relationship as it stands now between putin and prigozhin? >> it's surreal, chris. standing here in moscow, looking across this street where it's just life as usual. there have been over the weekend some national guard on the

streets, but very, very few. why is that? and why were the wagner group able to make their way along that freeway so far, within almost 100 miles of moscow? why was that? is it because on saturday there were negotiations taking place to try to prevent a clash, or is it because there just weren't the defenses, that president putin didn't have the defenses you might have expected? certainly, i will say this. the russian establishment will have been clearly very, very concerned about the idea that by today, i could have been standing here talking about russians fighting russians on the streets of moscow. the implications of that would have been clearly huge in all kinds of ways including for president putin's leadership. you could argue -- it's been argued that in a sense both sides blinked, prigozhin blinked, putin blinked and

backed away into a confrontation that might have resulted in a civil war. >> what's so surprising to hear about putin blinking, we've never heard or seen him blink before, not in this way. we know he crushes dissent, violently when necessary, without any consideration for who he's dealing with a lot of the time. you see the video of prigozhin taking selfies with russians. i can't imagine that he's watching that video and thinking that he appears stronger because of that. why did he let prigozhin go? i'm sure you're asking your sources that. >> reporter: i'm asking myself the same question. i think that video is stunning, isn't it? to see people cheering and taking selfies with prigozhin in the streets of rostov, about 800 miles from here. many russians aren't seeing that video. it's not being played out on russian state tv for obvious

reasons. i will say this about president putin. clearly he's been in that leadership role in various ways for more than 20 years. he can be ruthless. he also can be very flexible. remember about prigozhin, what you're seeing there is a man who has been close to president putin over a long period of time. in a sense what you're looking at is a confrontation, brothers fight brothers, if you like, a confrontation between russian elites, and that may go some way to explaining. another thing i will say is that we don't know what happens next. this is not the end of this story. we do not know what the next days or weeks hold. i think we have to reserve judgment to some extent to see what putin will do, the changes that might happen in russia, what it might mean for the so-called special operation in ukraine. all of those are still questions. >> keir simmons for us in moscow, thank you very much. for a closer look at what this means we're joined by nbc

news foreign correspondent kelly cobiella from kyiv and chief fornt correspondent richard engel is in taiwan. kelly, to the extent, and we don't know anything for sure, to the extent this is an enormous distraction for vladimir putin, can he keep control in russia. do ukrainians see an opening here on the battlefield? >> reporter: i think that's the hope among ukrainian leadership, that this distraction will help them when it konls to the fight along that 600-mile front line here in ukraine. the wagner forces are some of the most effective forces on the battlefield. those wagner paramilitary forces playing a big role in bakhmut in the east. we still don't know how many of them there are. prigozhin was claiming over the weekend that he had 25,000. how many are still in ukraine? how many are loyal to him

fighting the war in ukraine? how effective can they be now that he possibly is taken out of the equation? frankly, we don't even know that much, if he will no longer have control over these forces in some way. antony blinken, the secretary of state, was asked about this, about what kind of effect could this have, wagner forces being taken out of the mix in ukraine and can ukraine take advantage of it. he was asked this on "meet the press" over the weekend. take a listen. >> where this goes, whether those forces remain in ukraine, whether they become integrated into the regular russian military, weight it means for wagner in africa, too soon to tell. the fact that this is at the least an added distraction for putin and for russia i think is to the advantage of ukraine. it continues to move forward with the counteroffensive. >> reporter: we've been talking to the spokesperson for the forces on the eastern front. he says there's no tactical

change in the russian forces there over the weekend or since those incredible events on saturday. but the change may be just in the morale of those forces. prigozhin had a huge media empire. he had a very loud voice on social media, lots of affiliated accounts on telegram. soldiers listen to that. they would have heard his messages on friday, criticizing the top military leadership in russia, saying the justification for the war was a lie. that could have a real affect on the morale, and that could help the ukrainians. guys, just one more thing. there have been, according to the ukrainians, some advances over the past few days. the deputy defense minister saying just this morning that ukrainian forces have taken another village held by russia, putting out video of ukrainian soldiers raising the flag on that territory. she also said they've taken

about 50 square miles of territory in the south that the russians had held just in the past week. she said there have been a lot of changes along that stretch in the past week. >> richard, prigozhin has publicly bragged about being the only commander essentially in ukraine that can gain any territory for russia. he's been denigrating russian troops and russian military leadership. so there's questions about what happens in ukraine from the wagner group. but i also have a question for you, because you know the subject better than any of us. who exactly is prigozhin? i know you've had direct interactions with him. >> reporter: so we're working on a documentary right now that we're speeding up because of obvious change of events, trying to get it on air as soon as possible about the rise of wagner, about yevgeny prigozhin. i've been following his activities for the last several years, not just in russia and

ukraine, but also in africa, in syria. he started out as a petty criminal. he was a thief and a violent thief at that. he spent several years in prison. and after he got out of jail, he strangled a woman. he decided to reinvent himself. and he reinvented himself as a businessman, a small-time hot dog salesman. he is described by people who know him as smart, ambitious, focused, ruthless. and he turned this small hot dog stand into a network of restaurants, some of the very high-end restaurants right around the time of the collapse of the soviet union when there weren't a lot of luxury restaurants, not a lot of places for people to go at the end of the ussr. one of those restaurants, as luck would have it, became the hangout for the rising political

star, intelligence star of vladimir putin and the relationship began almost by a coincidence. prigozhin is sometimes described as putin's chef. he's not really a chef. he was a restauranteur, a caterer. like a good caterer, he wanted to cater to his client's needs, especially an important one like the young vladimir putin. their relationship grew and prigozhin wanted to be an insider. he wanted a seat at the table, not just to be the guy bringing the hors devours. he started to do special tasks. we talked about some of the special tasks a lot several years ago, because it was prigozhin who founded the internet research agency, the troll farm, the bot farm that was so influential in interfering in the 2016 election, flooding social media

with memes and disinformation. that was just one of his side jobs. the other was creating the wagner mercenary force. >> richard engel, kelly cobiella, thanks to both of you very much. when we're back in 60 seconds, what happens in ukraine if vladimir putin gets mired in instability in moscow? what the ukrainian counteroffensive is assuming right now. russia has a giant nuclear arsenal. what the u.s. is preparing for in case of a violent takeover. the ranking member of the house foreign affairs committee representative gregory meeks joins us. you are watching a special two-hour edition of "msnbc reports." we're back in one minute. we're back in one minute

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and if he can keep his hold on power could create a much-needed opportunity for ukrainians. this morning ukraine's deputy defense minister said his forces have retaken roughly 50 square miles from russia along the southern front line since the start of their counteroffensive. he also acknowledges the situation hasn't seen significant changes over the past week. join ng us now, nbc news military analyst and retired u.s. army colonel jack jacobs. always good to see you. is there an opening now for ukraine, and how do they capitalize on it? >> it's interesting. this has been brewing for some time. the ukrainians have taken advantage of the turmoil already. we remember that wagner was instrumental in taking bakhmut. well, that started to deteriorate, and the ukrainians have already taken a lot of the high ground around bakhmut with the withdrawal of the wagner forces, and they turned it over to the russians who haven't done a very good job of defending it.

so this has been going on for some time. there are plenty of opportunities now for ukraine to continue to probe the front lines to find weaknesses through which the ukrainian forces can punch through and really start the offensive. right now they're just taking advantage of the turmoil locally and tactically. >> so prigozhin has bragged a bunch about being the only one that's able to take territory for russia. he uses bakhmut as the example of that. without him on the battlefield or without him directing his force, leading his forces, can russia continue to take territory or try to, or will it be in retreat? >> questionable because russian forces are poorly trained and poorly led. they'll have insufficient forces to defend with wagner gone. it remains to be seen what's going to happen with those forces. the russian government has been trying to sign these people up

to go into the russian army. it's unclear how successful they're going to be in that. the result is that the russians do not have sufficient forces in certain areas along the line in order to defend against a determined ukrainian assault. in addition to that, the russians have used a lot of their reserves to beef up their lines in the eastern part of ukraine. that means internally they don't have very much support, which is one reason why you saw the wagner forces making so much progress on the road to moscow. difficult times for putin at the moment. >> so can we talk about the ukraine's determined assault. you're someone who has led your fellow fighters into battle in vietnam. we talked a lot in the beginning of this, when people were surprised by how well ukraine was doing, about the value of morale and fighting for your own country. when they look at what's

happening now and they're exhausted, and they have lost their friends and their brothers and their neighbors, how much of a morale boost could this be for ukraine and how important could that be at this critical point in the war? >> morale is clearly very important. we've seen armies running away even though they were better equipped than the people assaulting them all because of morale. leadership is important as well. ukrainian leaders are very well trained. the russian army doesn't do nearly as well as it possibly could even though they have greater numbers and lots of equipment. they're very poorly trained and extremely poorly led. that was one of prigozhin's main complaints. sergey shoigu, the defense minister, doesn't have very much military experience at all and was continually making very poor decisions, some of whip were to the great distress of the wagner group. the result is unless there is

some kind of change at the top of the food chain inside the russian military hierarchy, replacing shoigu and ger ross move with people who really know what they're doing, russia is going to have a difficult time even defending if the ukrainians find a way to punch through. >> an open question about what happens to shoigu. we don't know when the video is from. coming up next, is nato in agreement about what to do next? what the white house says about the alliance, and what about those nukes. russia has the largest stockpile in the entire world. if backed into a corner, does vladimir putin use any of them? the latest intelligence from congressman gregory meeks, ranking member of the foreign affairs committee next. e foreig affairs committee next they customize your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. you could save $700 dollars just by switching. ooooh, let me put a reminder on my phone. on the top of the pile! oh. only pay for what you need.

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russia has the largest nuclear stockpile in the world. what does the white house say about that threat? joining us is nbc news' allie raffa. the president was on the phone over the weekend with our allies. what can you tell us about those discussions and whether there's any concern about all those nukes. >> absolutely. the president and his team working the phones over the weekend from camp david, talking to diplomatic and military leaders from ally countries including the uk, france and germany. the president speaking with

ukrainian president zelenskyy. the white house saying on that call the president reaffirmed his continued commitment to supporting ukraine throughout its counteroffensive and during this really unprecedented time for russia, as it continues its war effort against ukraine. because the president was at camp david all weekend, today is going to be the first opportunity, the first time we'll see him on camera. he'll have the opportunity to speak about this crisis in russia. considering the posture we saw the white house take over the weekend, this very measured, very cautious approach, still trying to gather information and monitor this situation as it continues to develop because there's still so many questions left unanswered, we don't necessarily expect him to comment on this today, but, of course, we've been proven wrong before. i think it's also worth mention, katy, to your point about those nuclear weapons, we've talked so much over the last year and a half since this war began, how

the president has touted his ability to unite nato countries around supporting ukraine. we know that this is all happening just a little over two weeks out from that nato summit in lithuania. president zelenskyy expected to attend that summit. we know he's been lobbying so hard for ukraine's membership into nato. he's admitted publicly that he knows it's unrealistic given that ukraine is still in this on going war with russia, the end of the war still not within sight and it's become even more unpredictable with this crisis. that's definitely going to be something to watch over the next two weeks, whether some framework or basis of a deal is developed. >> allie raffa, thank you very much. let's bring in democratic congressman gregory meeks, ranking member on the foreign affairs committee. let me ask a big-picture question first. does the u.s., does congress have a handle on what happened

here or even where vladimir putin is right now? >> there is information, of course, classified information that's going on among the intel community, and the intel committee has been reformed as well as the speaker and the leader. there's conversations that's going on to keep them informed. i expect to have some classified briefings this week to find out where we are and where we're going. yes, i think there's been now newsworthy that the administration has told the intel committee previously that they saw signs of aggression on the part of prigozhin. so we'll see what takes place. we're closely watching. i think what's also important is as secretary blinken and the president have been talking to our allies. again, this becomes tremendously important for the communication between our allies, nato and the e uncht. it's tremendously important to

keep that unity and keep the information flowing between them. i think that's particularly important. >> i know the united states is not a fan of vladimir putin, especially considering what he's doing in ukraine. seeing him removed from power in a way like this, an attempted rebellion, is that good? is that a good thing? does that provide more instability? is it better to have anybody but putin? prigozhin is not a great guy either. >> the united states is not involved in this at all. we're watching like others. this is completely an internal issue -- >> we've also levied a whole lot of sanctions against russia to get them to stop the war, to weaken vladimir putin. we've been tipping the scales as well. >> ultimately that will be up to the russian people. i do look at and i think it's significant as i watched in two military towns and on the march to moscow that the people were

cheering, was cheering prigozhin and were not afraid to be on camera. that said something to me. the fact that the military, the russian military did nothing to stop him, that says something to me. so it's clearly something internally that has happened within russia that's manifesting itself. again, i think sometimes we may have to come to the recognition that we've given russia and the military too much credit. you can see that from the beginning. everyone thought their military was so big, so powerful, so ready that ukraine could not survive more than a week. we're well past a year now. so now we see something else taking place with reference to even internal discipline. remember that putin called this a special military operation, not the war that it is.

now that it's being exposed by other russians, especially some of those in the military, the military not sure why they're fighting this war in ukraine. i think that's something that's important to think about. they've never been sure. now there are statements coming out by the wagner group and others that shows that this has been a war where putin has put forward without any real reasons. so that then causes further doubt within the institution. there's questions i have, we haven't heard anything in the duma, the legislative branch of the russians, what's happening with them? is there any internal conflict there? there's a lot of things we have to watch the next couple days because there's more reasons to question putin's leadership and him telling the truth to the russian people. >> we're out of time, but i want to ask you quickly.

if there is an opportunity for the ukrainian army to make gains here, are there conversations among members of congress about the u.s. who has already invested so much money, so much time and effort in ukraine, to help them do that, to take advantage of an opportunity? >> i would hope what this does is reenforce the members of congress, particularly some of my republican colleagues who were talking about not continuing funding ukraine, that this is why it is important, to make sure we are funding ukraine and to push forward. what may be happening here is this great power wheel, you talk about the longevity of this war, is weakening russia more than it's weakening ukraine. we've got to make sure we keep ukraine strong. clearly, when you look at the number of individuals -- there's been death on both sides, but the tremendous loss of weapons and of people on the russian side, the longer it takes place, it could be we're thinking it's going to hurt ukraine. it could be really hurting russia more. >> ranking member of the foreign

affairs committee, congressman gregory meeks, thank you very much for joining us, especially in person. we appreciate it. new reporting from nbc news on donald trump's chances in a general election. plus, onus, what a hollywood mogul is telling president biden today. mogul is telling president biden today. we're at war. -detonators charged. there's a chance that when we push that button, we destroy the world. we're in a race against the nazis. i have no choice.

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to 2024 politics now and new reporting that some democrats are worrying that this threat of trump winning back the white house is very real. that's after a new nbc poll shows president biden with a tight 49-45% lead over donald trump, within the margin of error and tied, by the way, with ron desantis. former ohio congressman tim ryan says if democrats don't recognize how strong trump's chances are, they're, quote, living in a world of delusion, and it's dangerous. vaughn hillyard joining us now.

the obvious question is how dangerous do they think this is? is it here is a word or caution or five-alarm fire? >> i think in the midterm elections there was a lot of democratic wins. even though donald trump was on the ballot, democrats thought we can turn out voters because trump-endorsed candidates were on the ballot. a conversation with tim ryan, in wisconsin they lost by 30,000 votes to ron johnson. this is coming back to this data we got here. the numbers make it clear, that donald trump is in the position to win this republican nomination. 49% of republicans said that he should be the leader of their party going into the future. you can see the margin has grown for him. that's where it goes to the next step. yes, you look at the approval ratings among americans for donald trump. the positivity number is not high, but you're looking at right there 9% neutral and 34%

positive. that's about 43%. you see in this polling other numbers there. donald trump in a joe biden head-to head match up 45-49%. this is notable. this is a national poll. we've got to go back to the fact of how american presidential elections are decided, plurality vote in key swing states. the last poll between the 2020 election had joe biden up by 10%. you see the number now. in the battleground states, democrats say it's time for the party -- >> do they look at one state in particular and say this state is more vulnerable this time around than it was in 2020? >> i think michigan, wisconsin and arizona are on the front lines. i was talking to former arizona democratic party chairwoman who said, look, there's a great number of people in the united states that still out there, continuing to follow this guy to whatever means it's going to go. you see in the same polling,

people asking about the las fied documents indictment, only 45% said it was a minor concern or no concern. that's not republicans. that's americans, all voters. 45% said either minor concerns or no concerns at all. when we're talking about plurality vote, donald trump, if he was able to garner 43, 44%, we have no labels candidate, you have cornell west. he may be in the middle of trials, don't rule him out. >> middle of trials can stamp up their enthusiasm. >> potentially. his nod of support is unyielding. vaughn hillyard, thank you very much. let's bring in former obama white house chief of staff jim messina and former communications director for jeb bush's campaign and writer at the bulwark tim miller. tim, is donald trump a real threat in a general election? >> i think so. joe biden is going to be a clear

favorite in a general election if that's what we get up getting. it's a five-alarm fire because of the potential outcome of a donald trump presidency. it's horrifying to imagine. needy remind you he attempted a coup when he finished his first term in office. i think that maybe the level of panic wouldn't be quite as high if the potential outcome wasn't as concerning, wasn't as catastrophic. it's entering to hear vaughn look at those states. what he doesn't mention is georgia. there are a couple of places where democrats with feel good. donald trump has been rejected in georgia over and over again over the past few cycles, the 2020 election, and by endorsing brian kemp and having herschel walker lose. there are certainly some green shoots. i don't think democrats should be catastrophiing about it. when i hear people say it gives

me the shivers, i have ptsd from 2020. i've heard that before. >> hillary clinton was a clear favorite the night before the election. i was talking to people who had internal polling who have all the respect in the world -- >> trump's people thought hillary clinton was going to win as well. that same day they thought it was over. >> that's right. given the sort of asterisk that this is very early in these head-to-heads, people tell you don't reach too much into them, what do you read into this and what's the message for democrats generally? >> well, i agree with tim. i think this is a five-alarm fire. donald trump could absolutely win this. remember that joe biden won in the three closest states by a total of 42,000 votes. this was an incredibly close election in the battleground states. it wasn't close nationally. we don't have national elections. we have state-by-state elections. in both campaigns, as you two pointed out, donald trump has

overperformed polling. a lot of people won't tell pollsters they're for them. we don't know what the economy is going to be next year. democrats need to do three very important things. number one, go and make sure joe biden doesn't have a primary, incumbents who have primaries lose the general election. two, make sure we sell his accomplishments. this guy has gotten an historic amount done, and we need to tell people about it. three, next year have stark contrasts in what this dpan is going to be about, on issues like abortion, like the economy. there are real clear differences. if we make those differences, joe biden will be re-elected. if we don't, donald trump could absolutely win the white house. >> jim, i was having a conversation with a big-time democratic fund-raiser the other day who told me about a dinner that they had with joe biden a little earlier this year. they didn't walk away feeling so good about it. they didn't walk away feeling

like he was the best candidate for the democratic party. is president joe biden still the best candidate for the democratic party going forward? >> absolutely without question. >> why? >> there's two reasons. one, he has shown an ability to connect with voters, especially moderate voters and win a presidential election against donald trump. the second thing is, he's gotten an historic amount done. we have real things to go sell here. the ira, infrastructure bill, bipartisanship. you'd much rather have an incumbent running than you would a massive primary and not know who the nominee is. democrats are crazy if they don't have joe biden as the nominee. >> jim messina, tim miller, thank you very much. we have to get to breaking news from the supreme court that could have an impact on the 2024 election. nbc news senior reporter jane timm is following this for us.

jane, tell us what happened this morning? >> reporter: the supreme court told louisiana they're going to have to redraw their congressional districts. they previously put the map redrawing process on hold after a lower court said you have to redraw this district, it doesn't comply with the voting rights act. they have to draw a second black majority district in there. this is in keeping with the alabama case we heard where the supreme court said the voting rights act continues to stand. you've got to redraw your districts, redraw the congressional maps to make sure communities of color have a chance to elect their representatives of their choice. it still doesn't explain why both of these cases were allowed to have these maps that they now say violate the rights of black voters in these states to be used in the 2022 election. it nonetheless means these voters are going to get their districts. >> let me ask you really quickly if i can, because i don't want to give people a myth understanding of this for 2024.

donald trump beat joe biden by about 18 points in louisiana it's not as though this is going to suddenly become a battleground state. could this have implications of maps in other states? >> alan v milligan says the voting rights act stands. states around the country are having to consider their own map. this is the second. alabama the first, louisiana the second. you might see districts in georgia, texas, where you're starting to see congressional districts be redrawn to keeping with this map. a lot of courts held their rulings, waiting to see what the supreme court was going to do. it absolutely has implications for the effects of control of congress in 2024. the number of states that could be up there, i think as many as five seats in texas, three seats elsewhere. eight seats across the country at least. >> jane timm, thank you for that. up next, the mercenaries at the center of this russian

revolt have a footprint in many different parts of the world. is there ab opening for the u.s. to shift power dynamics in those regions now? you're watching a special two-hour edition of "msnbc reports," russia in crisis. reports," russia in crisis look! oh my god... oh wow. i want my daughter riley to know about her ancestors and how important it is to know who you are and to know where you came from. doesn't that look like your papa? that's your great grandfather. it's like opening a whole 'nother world that we did not know existed.

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♪ ♪ cargurus. shop.buy.sell.online. beyond russia and ukraine, the wagner group has power and influence from sudan to venezuela. what happens to the leaders it is propping up out there, and the money it's sending back to russia, money that had been helping to fund vladimir putin's war in ukraine? let us ask former pentagon senior official wendy anderson and senior coalitions adviser for concerned veterans for america and director of veterans initiatives at stand together, jason beardsley. wendy, i want to -- let's talk about prigozhin and what he had been doing. he had been propping up war lords and leaders in africa, propping up some folks in venezuela, sending money back from mining and diamonds in those areas back to russia to

help it fund the war in ukraine. does that stop now? what happens? >> it's a great question, and look, i think the answer right now this early on is that we just don't know. there are a couple of things we do know, though, that i think are important to highlight. first is that, you know, the wagner group and prigozhin really, as its owner and head, has exposed the weakness of vladimir putin and his regime in the sense that, you know, sort of the old cliche of the emperor has no clothes. second, he's exposed the kremlin's dependence on private military contractors, which i think is also hugely significant here. putin really hasn't wanted to use his own military. that's why he's been engaged with contracting with the wagner group and even accessing the chechens and other paramilitary groups that are much more highly trained and effective on the

battleground. we know that prigozhin was in danger of losing his power base after a june 10 russian defense ministry order which was ordering all private armys to sign government contracts, which would have brought wagner under formal russian military control. prigozhin himself and the paramilitary wagner group he represents is a huge threat. they as an entity have exposed something which no autocrat ever wants to surface, which is an al ternltive. >> does what's happening now provide an opening? what are the conversations like between the u.s. and its allies? >> well, i think in some regards it does provide an opening. where vladimir putin has really established what wendy talked about which is the weakness of the power, and so this is a great moment for the united states diplomats to really start

to work every trap line they have to put pressure on putin, catch him while he's at his weakness or perceived weakness, and force the negotiated settlement to -- >> how do you do that? how do you put that pressure on? >> right now he's got a window. vladimir putin has seen that this campaign has been a debacle from the outset. that's the reason why the two heads of the defense are really under pressure now. prigozhin sort of helped expose that. this is an opportunity for him to replace his battlefield generals, but also shore up a political sort of rapport inside russia. right now he's got vladimir putin to shore up his political base. the way we do that is by our diplomatic, you know, core going to work to say, hey, this is the time to start looking for a negotiated settlement. it's not going to be pretty but there's no real win on the ground. even though wagner group is 25,000, 30,000, they've taken a lot of brunt of casualties here,

there's hundreds of thousands of russians in a defendable line in eastern provinces of luhansk and donetsk. that purports to be a long conflict. if we don't want to end this humanitarian crisis, we ought to be asking our leadership why, it gives joe biden and the white house an opportunity to really look smart here by pressing for that sort of peaceful settlement. >> wendy, in talking about these private military contractors and how vladimir putin relies on them. i wonder is there somebody out there, another group out there that could potentially step into the void without prigozhin if he's off the map going forward? >> i think it's unclear which one is might be, but your point is excellent in the sense that clearly there is a vacuum into which a number of groups and power players will attempt to leverage their own power. i think that is the great question for all of us now, not

only united states leadership, president biden, secretary of state blinken, et cetera, but also those of nato countries and the surrounding regional leadership. you know, what exactly will it be or who exactly will it be who will come in and how will we as an alliance manage the spillover effects of those potential actions? it's something we've really got to pay attention to in coming days. >> thank you both soft much. we've got a lot more in our next hour of special coverage in the crisis in russia, including insight from jason crow, a combat veteran and member of the house foreign affairs and intelligence committees. new reporters from the key observers of russia, the atlantic and applebaum about vladimir putin now caught in his own trap. a key question now, who is more dangerous, an empowered putin or a weakened one? don't go anywhere. n't go anywhe. we're exploding. but my old internet, was not letting me run the show. so, we switched to verizon business internet. they have business grade internet, nationwide. (vo) make the switch.

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