right now on "andrea mitchell reports," the fallout from a stunning weekend in russia. wagner group leader yevgeni prigozhin's bold challenge to vladimir putin, advancing to moscow's doorstep only to back down at the last minute and a deal brokered by the leader of belarus, a key ally of putin, raising questions about the

future of russia. among them what is prigozhin's next move, what concessions if any did he get to reverse course, and where is he today? >> this is treason. in the face of those who are fighting on the front. this is a stab in the back of our troops. >> plus, what does vladimir putin's unprecedented admission of vulnerability in a national speech mean for his hold on power and on the war in ukraine? >> this is just the latest chapter in a book of failure that putin has written for himself and for russia. economically, militarily. his standing in the world. all of those things have plummeted. >> we'll have insight and analysis this hour from former cia director john brennan, former u.s. european command deputy steph twitty, a former top adviser to president zelenskyy in ukraine, and senate

intelligence committee chairman mark warner, who was briefed on prigozhin's plans in the days leading up to the weekend rebellion. good day, everyone. i'm andrea mitchell in washington, where president biden has been hisling all weekend with his national security advisers and calling nato allies after an unprecedented threat to vladimir putin's 23-year grip on russia. the armed uprising began late friday after wagner group leader yevgeny prigozhin, the brutal mercenary commander long-time putin ally, released audio and video messages claiming the invasion into ukraine was launched under false pretenses and criticizing russian merlt military leaders he says approved the bombing of his wagner soldiers. prigozhin's soldiers began to move east into the russian see

of rostov-on-don, quickly taking control of putin's southern military command center where many people were turning out to celebrate the anti-putin troops, taking selfies and applauding their movement. as wagner troops pushed north, just 125 miles from moscow, putin interrupted russian tv with an unprecedented speech to the nation. >> translator: it is an attempt to subvert us from inside. these people who are responsible will certainly be brought to justice on behalf of our people. >> hours later prigozhin ordered his troops to stand down and accepted exile as part of a truce mediated by belarus president and top putin ally alexander lukashenko, a putin vassal who may emerge as the real winner so far. nbc's senior international correspondent my colleague keir simmons is in moscow. keir, there's a new message, an audio message from prigozhin now, the first we've heard from him since saturday. what can you tell us?

>> reporter: that's right, andrea. and in case anyone was under the impression that the deal that was done over the weekend was some kind of a capitulation by prigozhin, the leader of the wagner group, well, i think this 11-minute piece of audio by prigozhin will disabuse them of that view because he insists that his so-called march to moscow where his forces got close to the city here, that that was not an attempt to overthrow president putin, that instead he wanted to correct mistakes made, he says, by russia's military leadership. he says -- he denies he was trying to topple president putin, and he appears now to be in belarus. we don't know where he is. but he appears now to be still holding out this leadership position, if you like. one of the questions i think now is how many of his wagner forces

might follow him to belarus. it was, as you mentioned in the introduction there, andrea, a stunning set of events as he turned around his forces and did this deal with the president of belarus, president lukashenko. and just think about that. incredible, president put whoin on a number of occasions in the past has supported autocrats around the world, sent his forces to support them, well, now needing the support over the weekend of another leader from outside of russia. i think what you're seeing, you played that piece of sound by president putin and now his message from prigozhin. i think what you're seeing is these two men kind of talking to each other in public, if you like, sending each other messages. so much over the weekend was unexpected, andrea. and i think what comes next is very, very difficult to predict. where is president putin. we did see video of him today talking to young engineers. but he didn't once mention the

rebellion over the weekend. was that recorded before even the rebellion took place and is this an attempt by the russian government to kind of give a veneer of normalcy despite all of the extraordinary events? >> and keir, what is going to happen to russia's military leader sergei shoigu, whose ouster prigozhin had been demanding? >> reporter: yeah, so we've now seen video of him too released by the russian ministry of defense. but again, that's video that ostensibly is of him running the so-called special military operation in ukraine. but we don't know when it was recorded. again, it may well have been recorded before the uprising over the weekend. another example, it seems, of the russian government, and in this case the ministry of defense wanting to give the impression of leadership and stability but at the same time question marks over exactly what

their next moves are. and interesting that you've heard -- we've heard from beijing today saying that it supports russia and particularly supports russian stability and we've heard from minister lavrov today, the foreign minister. one of the notes from what he said was interesting was he says that the u.s. ambassador reached out and wanted to reassure russia that america did not have any involvement in what was going on but also to get reassurance about russia's nuclear capability because of course this is a country with about half of the world's nuclear warheads and it is the defense minister who is in charge of those. >> exactly. keir, it's so great to have you there on the ground. thank you so much. keir simmons. and so let's turn to ukraine for our latest reporting on the situation on the ground for front line troops. and what we're hearing from president zelenskyy. what's the impact of all of this, what's happening in russia on the ukrainian counteroffensive?

nbc's raf sanchez is in kyiv. president bide and enpresident zelenskyy spoke by phone over the weekend. where do things stand over today? >> reporter: over the last hour we learned president zelenskyy made a surprise visit to the east to meet with ukrainian troops taking part in the counteroffensive there. he was taking selfies with ukrainian soldiers, handing out medals. he was wishing happy birthday to one of the troops. and the contrast is so stark between president zelenskyy out and about relatively close to the front line and what keir was just saying about this mystery over president putin's whereabouts. as keir was saying, president putin addressing the nation in that stunning emergency broadcast saturday morning and then this slightly odd message released today with no reference at all to what's happened over the weekend, unclear if that was prerecorded or not. so a lot of this war, andrea, as we've talked about so much, is about optics. the ukrainians are very, very good at capitalizing on president zelenskyy's sense of

vitality, spontaneity, and it may be that this trip was planned to draw a contrast with president putin. zelenskyy also spoke to president biden over the weekend. zelenskyy called it a positive, inspiring conversation. he thanked president biden, especially for the patriot missile batteries which are defending the skies of kyiv and other cities from russian missiles, from russian drones. they talked about the situation unfolding in russia. the readout did not give any detail about what they said. president biten has to be much more circumspect than president zelenskyy when commenting about what's happening inside russia. biden, whether he likes it or not, is a peer of vladimir putin in the sense that both are leaders of nations armed with nuclear weapons. you've seen, andrea, the biden administration being very cautious about being seen to be crowing about the instability inside russia. president zelenskyy not feeling those constraints, mocking putin openly and in russian. andrea? >> rav, very, very briefly, the

near term any dispute within the military, the russian military could be helpful to kyiv, but zelenskyy has acknowledged that the counteroffensive was not going as well as he had hoped, that the russian defense had been built up. so is there concern there? i know there is in washington. that this could force putin -- inspire putin to try to show he's still in charge by taking it out against ukraine with his domination in the air. >> reporter: yeah, that's a real concern that we've heard from ordinary ukrainians here in kyiv, that a wounded cornered putin may feel he needs to lash out here. as you said, officials here in kyiv are absolutely hoping that the infighting, the division on the russian side may create some kind of opening for ukrainian forces taking part in this counteroffensive to go through. andrea, we have not yet seen the chaos inside russia translate into any kind of major breakdown

of military discipline on the russian side. the fighting here remains very, very difficult. the ukrainians announcing they liberated another village today. but that's a small village. it's not a sign of major progress. andrea? >> raf sanchez, stay safe. thank you so very much. vladimir putin is still in control in the kremlin as far as we know, but what will the events of the past few days mean for his hold on power? we'll talk to someone who has studied the russian leader in depth. former cia chief john brennan, next. when "andrea mitchell reports" is back in just 60 seconds only on msnbc. 's the perfect menu lineup. just give us a number, we got the rest. number three? the monster. six? the boss. fifteen? titan turkey. number one? the philly. oh, yeah, you probably don't want that one. look, i'm not in charge of naming the subs.

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well, is putin actually vulnerable? he certainly acknowledged vulnerability. but he's not going to tolerate insubordination. he acknowledged it in a nationwide address, interrupting russian television. does the lack of political opposition and his control of the media, certainly the air force, much of the media, help him return things to the status quo? >> well, andrea, this is the most serious threat by far to putin's rule over the last 20 years. but i think we have to realize the situation is still unsettled. it's very dynamic. and it is highly opaque. so there's a lot that is going on i think behind the scenes. and i think that what putin is trying to do now is not to make the situation worse. he doesn't have a very good hand at this point. so he needs to be able to recover this image of strength and control -- >> director brennan, let me interrupt you. we'll come to you on the other side. the president is speaking. we want to go to the white house right now. >> thank you. [ cheers and applause ]

thank you. please. thank you. although i like the fact joe manchin's standing all this time. he's a friend. hi, joe, how are you, pal? before i begin let me say a few words about the events in russia. excuse me. i'm a little -- i have an allergy. the situation began to develop as it did. i directed my national security team to monitor closely and report to me hour by hour. i instructed them to prepare for a range of scenarios. i also convened our key allies on a zoom call to make sure we're all on the same page. it's critical we're coordinated in our response and coordinated in what we anticipate. they agreed with me that we had to make sure we gave putin no excuse, let me emphasize, we gave putin no excuse to blame

this on the west or to blame this on nato. we made clear that we were not involved, we had nothing to do with it. this was part of a struggle within the russian system. i also talked at length to president zelenskyy of ukraine. i'll be keeping in contact with him. i may be speaking with him later today, early tomorrow morning, to continue to make sure we remain on the same page. i told him that no matter what happened in russia -- let me say it again, no matter what happened in russia we the united states would continue to support ukraine's defense and its sovereignty and its territorial integrity. he and i agreed to follow up and stay in constant contact. i'm also in constant contact with our allies to maintain our coordination. i'll be speaking with the head of state right after this meeting today and making sure we're on the same page. i didn't get a chance to speak with one head of state yesterday. we're going to keep assessing the fallout of this weekend's events and the implications for russia and ukraine.

but it's still too early to reach a definitive conclusion about where this is going. the outcome of all this remains to be seen. but no matter what comes next, i will keep making sure that our allies and our partners are closely aligned in how we are reading and responding to the situation. it's important we stay completely coordinated. and now i'd like to turn to today's announcement, begin by asking a question. did you -- >> director john brennan, you and i were interrupted, but for a very good reason. the president was addressing the situation, saying that they had been monitoring it, coordinating importantly with the allies, making sure they were all on the same page, that they did not give putin any excuse to blame this on the west, blame this on nato because it is an internal matter. and i can acknowledge to you just pulling the curtain back those of us who were making calls all day saturday and sunday were -- it was very hard to pry any information and none of it was on the record from any

officials. it was all on what we would call deep background and not acknowledging even that a senior official had said this. they didn't want any american fingerprints on developments or in their assessments. so to that backdrop which you know so well from the inside, how good was our intelligence going into this? as prigozhin was ramping up his criticism of shoigu and gerasimov and the military how prepared were we for what happened? >> well, i think as we've seen in the public sphere there was a fair amount of activity and rhetoric from mr. prigozhin that heralded his rather impulsive move over the weekend as he moved his forces toward moscow. so i'm sure the intelligence community, cia and others, were looking very carefully at the intelligence to see what he in fact might be planning. and i'm pleased to see that the reporting indicates that the

intelligence was provided to president biden and the administration so they could anticipate some of these twists and turns of developments over the weekend. and i must say i think the biden administration has handled this situation very well, made it very clear that this situation is a matter of internal russian dynamics. we have had nothing to do with it. and they're not going to do or say anything that is going to be perceived as trying to influence events there. so as this continues to unfold i think the biden administration is going to continue to try to stay as closely aligned with our allies and partners around the globe, watch the situation very carefully, be very concerned that there could in fact be further internal turmoil in russia that could be destabilizing and this is particularly worrisome given that it has a strategic nuclear weapons arsenal. >> one thing they were willing to say on the record was that they were confident that the nuclear arsenal was secure, that command and control was being maintained and they were maintaining communications. so what we don't have with the

chinese, military to military communications, in this whole crisis did continue clearly with moscow, with the kremlin. let's talk about prigozhin because he released an audio message today on telegram and was not indicating exactly where he is but certainly again accused russia, the russian military, which means shoigu and gerasimov, of having attacked his troops, said that 30 of his men had died in the attacks that preceded his decision to take on the military. >> yeah, prigozhin still has a fair amount of influence and standing, which is why i think putin is trying to treat the situation very carefully. he recognizes if he were to move against prigozhin in belarus or wherever prigozhin is it could in fact result in some very, very untoward developments with the wagner group. what he doesn't want to do is to alienate a force that has proven

to be an effective battlefield force of tens of thousands of individuals and not just in ukraine but also in other countries. i think he's trying to keep intact that force as he tries to assimilate and integrate it into the ministry of defense, which is going to be a tough call. that's why putin doesn't really have a strong hand now. i'm sure he is very, very frustrated with the likes of defense minister shoigu and general gerasimov because the war in ukraine has gone so poorly. but he has to be very careful in terms of these next moves. i think his strategy is not to make the situation worse and to line up the support within the government, within the military and even within the wagner forces so that he doesn't take any precipitous move that is going to lead to further instability and could really seriously threaten his continued political and physical survival. >> but knowing vladimir putin and the way he retaliates no matter how long it takes against those who oppose him, would you take out a life insurance policy on prigozhin right now? >> no, i certainly would not.

but there is a saying that revenge sometimes is best tasted cold. and i do think he's going to wait and not do anything in a careless and reckless manner that could in fact lead to further instability. but i do think that prigozhin has blotted his copy book. although in some respects he did it frontally. putin has gone to great lengths to go after and try to assassinate and assassinate, for example, russian intelligence officers who have betrayed their country by working with western intelligence services. prigozhin made no secret of his displeasure with what was going on in ukraine and the military's prosecution of that war. so maybe in some respects putin appreciates that it was donate frontally and openly. but prigozhin still presents i think a pretty serious challenge to putin's rule and his control, and i don't think putin is going to allow anyone, if he's able, to continue to present such a challenge. >> and if put on your cia hat

for a moment, if you were advising the president how would you assess vladimir putin going on national television interrupting their tv and really for the first time in 23 years that he's been in hour conveying his vulnerability, his weakness and that there was insubordination in the ranks? >> i think it just underscores the weakness of putin right now. and i'm sure the people around putin are continuing to try to figure out which way to go. but the fact that putin would do this, i think it just reflected his inability to control the situation and to take firm and decisive action against prigozhin. i think he felt as though he needed to do something along those lines. but i think the coming days and weeks in terms of what putin says and does publicly, what prigozhin does and says publicly will give us a sense of where this is going to go. but again, the situation is

highly dynamic. i think there could be a lot of new developments that will be taking place. so i don't think the tlaet threat to putin's rule is by any means over at this point. >> john brennan, thank you so much. your experience is invaluable to us. we really appreciate it. thank you. >> thank you. >> and we just heard president biden say that he and president zelenskyy will be speaking again either later today or early tomorrow after sunday's call that they had concerning the situation in russia and the impact on the war in ukraine and importantly on the counteroffensive. they also talked about the upcoming nato summit two weeks from now in lithuania which zelenskyy said he will not be attending if he's still being blocked from early admission to nato. on the battlefield ukraine's counteroffensive has been meeting stiff russian resistance. in some places three layers deep i'm told. but the deputy defense minister of ukraine says ukraine has regained roughly 50 square miles of land so far as of today. so joining us now, president

zelenskyy's former adviser igor november cough and the former deputy commander of u.s. european command, lieutenant general steph twitty. welcome to you both. igor it's good to see you. i know a lot has happened since we last spoke. president zelenskyy says russia is in complete chaos after the rebellion. how does president zelenskyy's inner circle view both the past few days and how they can try to take advantage of russian instability primarily in the military? >> well, from what i know, andrea, first and foremost the situation as director brennan said is highly dynamic. so the assessments are happening constantly. the situation was incredibly dangerous because any chaos in russia with the mining of the zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and given what's happened with the kakhovka water dam could have led to unpredictable circumstances.

now, there are certain benefits for the front line, for us to tray and kind of push harder against the russian defensive lines. but once again, the situation is dynamic. so no major disruption to russia's military efforts so far observed by us. >> general twitty, prigozhin called out putin's pretext for war, calling it deceit. listen to how residents in rostov-on-don reacted to prigozhin's arrival.

and we also heard cheering in the streets and people taking selfies with prigozhin and his troops. so what's the impact on morale among russian forces? clearly they have the internet. many of them were conscripted into service reluctantly. >> well, there's no doubt that prigozhin is viewed as a rock star now. what really made him the rock star inside russia was his win in bakhmut. and he's really the only force, the wagner group's the only force that's had a tremendous amount of success there. so he's going to be viewed as a rock star. then to take the southern headquarters without a shot, that further makes him a rock star. and so as the russian soldiers look at this, particularly as he accused them for firing on his troops and all the rhetoric that

he's talked about with them not being capable to fight, i'm sure that there's a lot of animosity within the ranks. i'm sure there's a lot of distrust between wagner and russian soldiers. and so trying to integrate these forces as a result of this brokered deal i think is a recipe for disaster for the russian military. as you already know, that there's a tremendous amount of distrust and disarray in the formation anyway. >> and prigozhin, general, today asked his troops how many wanted to be absorbed by russian forces and he says extremely few wanted that. what happens next to prigozhin's mercenaries? >> well, there's a tremendous amount of loyalty to prigozhin by his soldiers. and we have to remember that putin used the wagner group as an instrument of power, not just in ukraine but around the world.

they've been used in africa, central africa and libya. they've been used in syria. and so i don't see this force going away in its totality. it may morph to something else, but i don't see it going away. and i think putin will continue to rely on this force, maybe without prigozhin in charge, maybe someone else will step up. but i think we're going to find here if i'm a betting man that this force will stay around in some form or fashion. >> igor, the nato meeting is only two weeks away in lithuania, and president zelenskyy has indicated he will not attend if nato, still divided over ukraine's entry into nato, doesn't move forward on a faster track. the u.s. is one of those countries that believes that nato entry of ukraine could be

provocative to russia. what's the feeling in ukraine about this, about not getting into ukraine -- into nato quickly? >> well, andrea, i would probably split this into two separate issues. so nato -- joining nato for ukraine is vital for its future security guarantees. so i think, you know, most of the country, all of the country is looking forward to the day when we join. now, the imminent kind of ascension to nato is questionable. because of some political resistance from some of the nato members. but i will say the expectation on the ground is to have an open date invitation. basically, to get the confirmation that ukraine will be a nato member at some point and that date is still open. with wagner -- if i may add to what my colleague has said, the most dangerous part at the moment-i don't think that force will be disbanded. there are rumors they'll be stationed in belarus and that the bases are being built.

now, after prigozhin's antics he becomes a wild card that can be used by kremlin to do its bidding and to give kremlin plausible denieblt in any scandalous moves such as an attack on kyiv again or even an attack on a nato member. i think that situation should be monitored incredibly closely. >> that is such an important point, igor. thank you so much. lieutenant general steph twitty, igor novikov, thanks to both of you. and did the man known as putin's chef cook up more than his old boss could handle? a look at the man behind the weekend rebellion in russia, next. richard engel is up. this is "andrea mitchell reports," only on msnbc. msnbc. see the difference? - no... i don't see the difference, do you? - well, that one's purple. - exactly! that's our premium. - what does that mean? - i think it means it costs more. - for the same coverage? - that's what makes it premium! - that doesn't make sense, does it? - no... but it is premium! - i'd just go with consumer cellular.

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the armed rebellion by russia's mercenary chief has renewed questions about the man at the center of it all, of course the man we've been talking about, yevgeny prigozhin, who in a new message

as we said insisted he was not trying to overthrow the government, just going up against the military. prigozhin was once known as putin's chef, who built a fortune providing food to the entire russian military. he was also indicted in absentia by robert mueller for his hacking operation, trying to interfere in the 2016 presidential election. join meg now, nbc news chief foreign correspondent richard engel, who's been reporting extensively on prigozhin, including his forces in syria and most recently in africa. and andrew weissmann, former senior member of the mueller probe, which investigated prigozhin's role in 2016. richard, what is your read of what's happening in russia? what are your ukrainian sources staying? and what does this tell you about prigozhin? >> reporter: well, it doesn't seem like it's over. you talked about that statement, the audio statement that he issued a short while ago. no mention of putin at all. no apology.

no talk about a deal. in fact, he was still bragging about the wagner group, how powerful they were, and he offered his version of events. he said that he was given an ultimatum, that wagner was supposed to be disbanded and absorbed into the ministry of defense, that his men refused that order, then were attacked and in response that 30 of his fighters were killed and that in response they broke into two columns. one went to rostov, handed over its weapons, were greeted like heroes, and the other marched toward moscow, only stopped after they had delivered their message and that their message was how weak the country had become under its current military leadership. and he said had his men been in charge from the very beginning it would have been a quick war in ukraine. he said the distance that they marched from their positions in ukraine to 200 kilometers away from moscow was the distance that they would have needed to have marched to capture kyiv,

the ukrainian capital, in the early days or even the first day of the war. those are fighting words. he's still saying that his force is the best, that the russian military is trash. no mention of putin at all. no mention of a deal. so this does not sound like someone who's apologetic or has gone into hiding in belarus and whose days at least he believes are numbers. i think we're still in the midst of a mafia-style power grab, or a mafia-style turf war. and it is unclear how this is going to play out. but i did not expect such a strong statement from prigozhin. i thought perhaps he's gone to belarus, maybe he's in some sort of protect tiff custody and would issue a forced apology. that was not what we heard from him. >> and richard, you reported last month so memorably how the wagner group was making half a billion, with a b, dollars a

year by tapping african resources like gold and blood diamonds, of course to the detriment of the poor people living there. tell us more about that. >> so why would prigozhin be so bold that he could have an army and march them toward miss co. and then aen after being -- facing down putin continue to brag about his exploits? one, because he has troops, he has loyal forces, a lot of them, at least 25,000 according to his estimation, and that number jibes with western intelligence figures. and he has money. he has independent sources of income. so he has muscle and he has wealth. and a lot of that wealth comes from his private activities in africa, particularly the central african republic. we went there to learn more about how prigozhin managed to take over the country. and prigozhin has taken over the country. wagner forces patrol the streets

of the central african republic, the capital openly. they drive around in pickup trucks with no license plates. they generally cover their faces and balacalavas. they guard the president. they are open in their control of the country. they control diamond mines. they control gold mines. they have helicopters that go right to the mine sites and extract the resources. and they have a complicit government. in exchange they prop up the government, which was facing collapse because of a rebellion. so that's the deal that they've worked out in central africa. we'll protect the dictator but in exchange we'll take as much resources as we can fly out of the country. and they don't just do it in the central african republic. it's a model they're spreading. and it has given him quite a degree of power and made him so powerful it seems that maybe putin didn't realize the extent

of his growth. >> you have such unique knowledge up close of his role around the world including in syria. and andrew, you know so much about the notorious troll farm in russia that pushed online disinformation in the u.s. during the 2016 u.s. election. and he's admitted to being its founder. >> absolutely. to richard's point, the treasury department has for years now designated the wagner group as a transnational criminal organization and repeatedly imposed different sanctions. in the beginning of 2018 as part of the special counsel mueller investigation, prigozhin and numerous other people and companies were all charged in connection as you mentioned, andrea, the running of the

internet research agency, which is a fancy name for a troll farm that interfered with the 2016 election here in the united states but also is responsible for interfering in numerous other elections to the advantage of the interests of russia. in the united states it's documented that that included disparaging hillary clinton. it was supporting her opponents in the democratic primary. it was supporting donald trump and also denigrating donald trump's adversaries. so very much a pro-trump organization. and also served to sow discord in the united states. he is currently under indictment. so while russia may be saying that they're ending their criminal investigation, although it remains to be seen whether that lasts, that is not the case here in the united states.

>> richard engel, andrew weissmann, two men who know so much about this man. thank you both. and with a weakened vladimir pultin still in the cremin, the world waits and watches for what's going to happen next. the latest from world leaders ahead. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports." this is msnbc. "andrea mitchell reports. this is msnbc. easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. (bobby) my store and my design business? we're exploding. you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. but my old internet, was not letting me run the show. so, we switched to verizon business internet. they have business grade internet, nationwide. (vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon.

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anticipate. >> president biden said today that he is staying in touch with allies. he's getting hourly updates on the situation in russia, reaching out to allies. his secretary of state antony blinken says the nato alliance is stronger than ever. and joining me now is retired admiral james stavridis, the former supreme allied commander of nato. the summit in vilnius is two weeks away. before prigozhin's report president zelenskyy told the "wall street journal" if we are not acknowledging giving a signal in vilnius i believe there's no point for ukraine to be at this summit. they want entry. this morning the secretary-general tweeted the summit will make, quote, key decisions to support ukraine. that doesn't sound like the signal zelenskyy wants to hear. and the allies, some of them, are getting very nervous about the length of the war. the u.s. is against immediate ascension to nato among -- and

it has to be, as you know very well, all of the nato members have to agree before this can be done. that's how turkey has been able to, you know, block sweden. >> indeed. and andrea, and you know this well, the question of ukrainian membership goes back before my time as supreme allied commander, back to the mid 2004-2006 kind of time period. and as a result of that the ukrainians understandably are quite frustrated that they don't in their view have a clear path to nato. and the reason is some of the nato members i would say correctly assessed that if you bring ukraine in in the middle of a hot war with russia by definition you are putting nato in a state of war with russia the day ukraine signs the ascension papers. so i think the way this will

play out is when we get through the current fight, and let's hope ukraine has a definitive victory, but however it comes out, in a korean war-like armistice, for example, however it comes out, when hostilities stop that would be the moment to bring ukraine in. i'm confident ultimately ukraine will get membership. but you can hear the frustration in their voices when you talk to them. >> and you can also hear the frustration at what they believe to be the slow delivery of aid. it arrives, but they don't have the f-16s. this is now when they could use it. putin could be more vulnerable now given the dissension in his ranks. but he has air supremacy. and if he decides that he wants to hammer ukraine to show his muscle, this is the time he can do it. and their defenses, i'm told, are in some places three levels deep. they're putting up quite a fight against the counteroffensive.

>> right. two wars. a tale of two wars. one is the land war. here the ukrainians are making progress, slow but i think fairly surefooted and the recent events are going to sap russian morale. i think the ukrainians are going to pick up a good head of steam as the tanks come rolling in. hopefully we'll also add the long-range american cruise missiles, the atacms, to the mix. that land war is going in favor of the ukrainians. but you're exactly right. on the other side of the wars, the air war is going in favor of the russians. and putin still has a thousand combat aircraft that he hasn't fully committed to this fight. when he does that, it's going to require a significant response from the ukrainians. those f-16s can't get there soon enough. and you and i have been talking about f-16s, you can back and roll those tapes, six, eight,

twelve months now. it's time to get them in the fight. >> and very briefly are you as confident as the u.s. says it is that command and control over the nuclear arsenal is secure? >> i am. the russian armed forces is a series of ghettos and penthouses. the ghetto has been on display, the really poorly made land fight in ukraine. but the penthouses where they put their money, that's the nuclear forces, the long-range bombers. that is well resourced and ready to go. i'm confident that one is covered. >> thank you so much. former supreme allied commander nato -- of nato, of course james stavridis. and what did they know and when did they know it? the latest on when u.s. intelligence agencies were tracking prigozhin's rebellion. that's next. when the chairman of the senate intelligence committee, mark warner, joins us right here on

"andrea mitchell reports." you're watching on snbs msnbc. t" you're watching on snbs msnbc. after switching to the farmer's dog

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dynamic. i don't think the threat to putin's rule is by any means over at this point. >> joining me now is one of the top lawmakers in the gang of eight who were briefed on prigozhin's plans, senator mark warner. i know you can't share anything you've been briefed on. what's your understanding of what is happening in russia in the last few days with prigozhin saying in the last hour he was not trying to overthrow the government, and then he turned around to avoid russian bloodshed. >> first of all, andrea, i appreciate you recognizing that unlike some folks in american politics, i do understand if you receive classified information, it needs to stay secret. otherwise people's lives could be in jeopardy. the truth is, what prigozhin was saying, if you follow this, it's been hiding in plain sight literally for weeks as he's condemned the russian conduct in the war in ukraine, condemned

the leadership. the message he laid out saturday morning as his forces were advancing, i hope the russian people heard where he basically said it was all a sham. putin's pretenses from going into ukraine, there was never any threat from the ukrainians. i hope that message got out. i think it's remarkable with a relatively small number of troops he was able to take over rostov. rostov was the command center for the whole war in russia -- i'm sorry -- war in ukraine. the fact he was able to get within 120 miles of moscow even though putin had gone on the air and called him firtly a traitor on saturday morning. we have a lot of unanswered questions. as your previous commentator said, the volatility in terms of what the future of putin and that eej 'em is still up in the air. i do think we know this. the putin of five years ago, the putin that was more engaged as

opposed to the putin of today who is so isolated, who doesn't want to hear any bad news, i can't imagine the wagner group leader making as much progress if he tried this a number of years back. >> can you imagine viewed going on national television accusing prigozhin of being a traitor, literally, of a stab in the back and projecting vulnerability as he did on saturday morning? >> saying that and then five hours later cutting a deal with the same prigozhin. remember, neither of these guys are good guys. we know how awful and evil in so many ways putin has been. but prigozhin is head of this mercenary group who have done atrocities in syria, in ukraine, in countries in africa. prigozhin was the owner of the internet research agency who interfered in our elections in 2016, and he's subject to american indictment.

so this is a very bizarre circumstance. but the lead-up in terms of prigozhin's comments, this has been happening literally for weeks. in some cases months, calling out the leadership of the russian war effort. >> do we have any idea where prigozhin is? >> i understand literally as i was coming on air that he says he's in minsk, and he actually is -- get this. reports that he is in one of the only hotels in minsk that doesn't have any windows. i say that because, again, this has been in public reporting, that there have been a number of russian entity individuals who have run afoul of putin over the last year and a half who have mysterious fallen out of fifth, sixth, seventh floor windows. if he's in minsk in a hotel with no windows, that would show what his mindset is in terms of his

relationship with putin at this point. >> that's remarkable. what does this tell you about lukashenko, he's been an ally, if you will, subject to putin. is he striking out on his own? could he be one of the few winners here? >> remember lukashenko when there were elections in belarus, all the outsiders said lukashenko lost. following in that kind of oligarch, autocratic system he stayed in power with support from putin. the fact that he somehow magically brokered this deal when the wagner forces were literally about 120 miles outside of moscow, and those who said, well, prigozhin's comments this morning saying he didn't want to have any bloodshed, i believe this doesn't come from intelligence, this comes from your network and others who showed images of explosions in

russia, showed images of russian helicopters being shot down. this sounds like it was a giant mess that everybody is trying to reframe and rewrite the history of what was literally happening realtime and watched by the whole world literally within the last 48 hours. >> what percentage would you put on putin not trying to somehow retaliate against prigozhin and permitting an armed force to co-exist with his military? can shoigu tolerate that? >> shoigu who is the defense head had been trying to force these mercenary forces, the wagner forces to sign a contract and fall under his normal chain of command. prigozhin and his forces said no, and that was one of the contributing factors to this effort. i cannot believe, even if prigozhin is off in belarus at

this point, that all of these wagner forces who have borne the brunt many times of some of the most bloody fighting in ukraine are suddenly going to simply turn around and salute a set of at least military leaders that have demonstrated pretty much ineptness on the field. >> senator mark warner, chairman of the senate intelligence committee, thank you so much on all this breaking news. you just heard that we believe that prigozhin is in minsk in belarus. that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." "chris jansing reports" starts right now. ♪ ♪ good day. i'm chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york city. where is vladimir putin? we do have new video of the russian president today, but we have no idea when it was recorded. where is the man who put the

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