good to be with you. i'm katy tur. russian state tv says vladimir putin will speak tonight. it is already 10:00 p.m. there, so it could come at any moment. what's he going to say about yevgeny prigozhin. did he really allow the leader of the wagner group to flee to belarus without any consequences. as we wait for that, here's where things stand. it appears that vladimir putin has staved off a rebellion, excuse me. convincing the leader of a mercenary group of putin's own making to turn around and retreat just 125 miles away from moscow, which by the way, is less than the distance from philly to d.c. or milwaukee to south bend or austin to houston.

but even if the threat is over and it's not at all clear that saturday's turn around was, in fact, the end, what did the flash of descent do to russia itself, not the government or security services but the people. what message did russians get over the weekend? what did they see when yevgeny prigozhin's tanks move toward the capital? what did they feel when his troops reportedly shot down several russian helicopters? that's according to ukraine's air force. what did they hear when vladimir putin called prigozhin a traitor and compared his threat to 1917. we're going to ask masha gessen of the new york. the russia public saw something extraordinary, a choice, it will something that changes russia even if it doesn't alter putin's control in the short term. let's get our reporting and the news from russian tv that vladimir putin will speak

tonight. joining me now from moscow is nbc news chief international correspondent keir simmons. so keir, this news that he's going to speak, it's 10:00 there. when do we expect this to happen? >> reporter: we don't know, katy, and we don't know what he's going to say. dmitry peskov, the spokesperson for the kremlin said he will make a series of important announcements. we can speculate on it what it will be, but it's incredibly hard to predict the turn of events here in moscow. i do think that president putin will have felt that he needed to say something, the kremlin releasing a video of him giving a speech to young russian engineers today that did not in any way address the rebellion that rocked russia over the weekend. may even have been recorded before the weekend. so that kind of silence, if you like, from russia's president, couldn't go on much longer, especially after that dramatic, 11-minute piece of audio from

yevgeny prigozhin, the leader of the wagner group who led the rebellion group through the weekend despite the fact that he had allegedly been kind of sent off to belarus, he said that he was not going to disup and down his militia, continued his criticism of the so-called special military operation in ukraine, even suggested that his march on moscow here, they didn't reach moscow before they turned around, that that had exposed holes in russian security that was a benefit to president putin effectively, really, utter defiance from prigozhin and now i think we'll wait to hear whether or not president putin has an answer. >> is it any different in moscow today? anything change from the last time you visited? >> reporter: well, honestly, the answer i guess is probably not really, that's one of the surreal aspects is that things

seem fairly normal here. we have had an opportunity to go out and talk to ordinary russians. to me they see bewildered, i said to one woman, what happens now, she shrugged and said, i don't know. another russian said to me, look, people should remember that russians are dying too. another said, listen, you know, i don't want what's happening now, what we're seeing now, without really going into explanation for what exactly he meant, did he mean the potential for russians fighting russians, did he mean the special military operation in ukraine, which has gone on far longer than we were told by president putin it would. it's very dangerous, difficult to talk, if you are russian. obviously especially to foreign media. but, you know, it is palpable that there's a kind of bewilderment about where this goes from here, and that's understandable because i really don't think that russia knows at this point. >> do we know where vladimir putin is? did russian state tv say where

he will give this address? we know where prigozhin is, are where he sure he's in belarus? >> reporter: good questions. i don't know where president putin is, but, you know, he has a number of residences across russia. some of them with offices that look exactly the same, so even when he gives a speech, we may not know where he's speaking from. in terms of prigozhin, the reporting is that he is in belarus, and actually another aspect, and we're going to see some fast developments through the evening here, another aspect, the president of belarus who kind of did this deal over the weekend, president lukashenko, he is saying that he will have some things to say tonight too. maybe we'll get more information. i think another question beyond prigozhin is where are those thousands of wagner fighters? where are they? because in that same statement, that defiant statement, he effectively said i'm not going to disband my militia, even though it was suggested that was

the deal, they would sign up to join the main street russian military. they won't want to do that because they will be a modern day version of cannon fodder, so there are so many unanswered questions. there are many things we don't know, and that we do know in russia right now, and where things go from here, even after we hear from president putin may not be clear. >> it's all very surreal as you said a moment ago. keir simmons, thank you very much, and joining me is a staff writer at "the new yorker," it's good to have you. from your reporting, this turmoil with prigozhin has been brewing for months. what did you see happening? >> what's been emerging in the last few months, in particular the last couple of weeks, is suddenly there's a plurality of political actors in russia. this is shocking because putin has had a monopoly on political action, and on violence,

especially in russia for more than 23 years. so what russians have seen over the last 48 or however many hours, sleepless hours it's been is something that they have never seen before. there's an entire generation of people who have never seen open debate, open conflict, a kind of politics emerged. and this grew out of a conflict between prigozhin and the ministry of defense. a spat that grew more and more public until it finally turned into a confrontation. >> you know, you touch on this. we look at what's happening in russia from a very american perspective, a place where we're used to politics, used to debate, used to dissent, we're used to choice. as you mentioned, an entire generation has grown up without choice, it's always been vladimir putin, and seems like it always will be vladimir putin. putin is still in charge by all

outward appearances. we don't know what's going on with prigozhin, but this vision of choice out in the open, what is that going to do to russia in terms of russians, and then also to vladimir putin's hold over the country? >> well, that's a great question. the simple answer is we don't know, but i think, you know, just, you mentioned that we tend to look at it from an american perspective, and one way in which we do that is focus on statements like prigozhin saying in one of his initial addresses that sort of -- on the first day of his mutiny prigozhin said that the war was unleashed under false pretenses that nato and ukrainians were not about to attack russia, contrary to what russians had heard. but what he was actually saying, right, was two things, one was that he was claiming that the president had been misinformed, that he had been told that nato

and ukraine were about to attack russia. and he was also tapping into russians deep sense that they're always being lied to, that they're always being misled. these two things, you know, what's important is not what he said but sort of how he framed it, right. you have been lied to, both the president and the people. it also underscores that he wasn't actually staging a coup. he very much stayed within this narrative that putin makes all the decisions and if putin made the wrong decision, for example, the way that he has prosecuted the war in ukraine, then it's because putin is misinformed. in the statement that prigozhin released today, and he released this long, 11-minute audio statement, sort of claiming that he was responding to all the questions he has received since the mutiny began. and in the statement, prigozhin again said i was not trying to

overthrow the regime. but i was trying to show that we're competent and the ministry of defense is incompetent, and also said he would have been able to prosecute the war in ukraine in a day had he just been given free reign. >> vladimir putin is going to speak tonight, apparently, this is what russian tv is saying. it's 10:00 there. who knows what time he's going to be doing this. do you have an expectation of what he's going to say or are you looking out for something specific? >> it's really hard to predict what he's going to say, and by the way, putin often speaks sort of in the middle of the night, he is nocturnal and some of his important statements have been made light. that's not surprising. it does convey the origins of the situation. it appears from what the russian propagandists are saying and not saying is nobody quite understands what kind of spin they can put on this.

the propaganda, who were completely silent over the weekend are defaulting -- >> i'm so sorry to interrupt, but vladimir putin has started speaking. we have a translation, and we want to listen. >> translator: solidarity shows that any kind of black male is doomed to failure. i repeat. there has been a tremendous coming together of society, a unification of society. and there has been a firm support of the constitutional order. by all the leading parties. virtually the entirety of russian society. all of them have been united in the face of the responsibility to defend the homeland. all the necessary decisions were taken as promptly as possible in the light of this danger.

the defense of the constitutional order and the lives and security of our citizens. the organizers of this rebellion is -- cannot but understand they will be brought to justice. everybody understands that. this is criminal activity, which is aimed at weakening the country, which -- and this was a colossal threat from outside we are threatened. however, the organizers of this rebellion have betrayed those people who were dragged into this organization. and this kind of suicide is precisely what the neo-nazis in kyiv and the west wanted.

they wanted russian soldiers should kill each other. that as much as men and civilians be killed and in the final analysis that russia should fail, and they wanted our society to be fragmented, to be splintered. and they tried to take revenge for their failure at the front. but they slipped up. they made a mistake. especially with regards to the special services which have maintained their oath to the country. the courage, the self-sacrifice of these organs, these bodies, have saved russia. at the same time. we know that the overwhelming

majority of the wagner company are also patriots of russia. they have honed their courage in defending donbas and yet were encouraged to fight against their compatriots and by turning back, they avoided further bloodshed. we have to think about the people who actually decided to make this step. which would have had tragic and devastating consequences for the country, for russia as a whole. i should like to thank those

commanders and soldiers of the wagner private company who took the right decision to stop and go back and prevent bloodshed. and i urge everybody to make contact with the ministry of defense or go back to their homes. this promise will be fulfilled. i repeat, it is the choice of each of you, but it will be a choice of the warriors of russia who have acknowledged their fault. president lukashenko should be thanked also for his role in all of this, in order to achieve a peaceful resolution. it is the patriotic duty of everyone, the patriotic feeling

of everyone which has saved us and has saved the country as a whole. thank you. >> okay. so that's vladimir putin speaking for the first time publicly. a couple days now since the negotiation to get the wagner group to turn around to get yevgeny prigozhin to go to belarus. we learned a lot. i don't believe that was live because it started in a freeze frame and ended in a freeze frame. any kind of blackmail is doomed to failure. that he will hold the organizers accountable. they will be brought to justice. he called it criminal activity. he said it was a threat to the country. they slipped up and they made a mistake with the security services. he thanked the individual members of the wagner group who turned around and left and decided as he said not to shed

any more blood. he urged them to contact the ministry of the defense or to go home. he said it's a choice of each of you, essentially join the russian army or go home. masha, you're still with us. what do you make of what you just heard? >> it seems putin hasn't decided what he's going to do. he's keeping his options open. his reference to the wagner commanders who made the decision to turn around and go home is i think purposely vague. it could even include prigozhin himself if prigozhin were to exhibit necessary contrition. putin also blamed this -- he use rhetoric that a leader would notally use when talking about a terrorist attack, right, which is saying, you know, it's an attack on the whole country, criminal activity, and particularly the blackmail line

is very characteristic of talking about terrorists, right, so he is not explicitly saying that this was a coup or an attempted coup. he's treating it as terrorism. i think in his imagination, the best case scenario is that the wagner group just basically falls apart, people either go home as he said, or sign contracts with the ministry of defense, which is what the ministry of defense was pushing for in the last few months, as it was hoping that the wagner group would be disbanded. that does not seem to be a terribly likely outcome. the wagner group members are quite attached to prigozhin and the money he pays them, and i think putin doesn't know what he's going to do if that doesn't happen. >> how much does he, vladimir putin need the wagner group? how much does he need yevgeny prigozhin and, if yevgeny prigozhin agreed to go on state tv with him, and said he made a

mistake or whatever, would that mean that he would be welcomed back into the fold, keep your enemies closer? putin definitely prefers within the elites to keep his enemies closer than his friends, so, you know, the very idea that somebody would leave this mafia family alive or attacked is crazy in the putin universe, so, yes, i think the preferred scenario for putin would be to bring prigozhin back into the fold. prigozhin never wanted to leave the fold, right, he wanted to get putin's ear, talk to him and tell him what's really going on. it's not unimaginable that we will see some highly public reck reconciliation. >> do you buy that from prigozhin, he never wanted to do anything more than talk to vladimir putin and tell him he was misled? >> i actually do.

i think prigozhin, i think it would have been a victory for him if he had gone to putin, appeared with putin on a stage or on the television screens and they said together that putin was putting him in charge -- or whatever it was that was in prigozhin's fantasies. to the extent that he was imagining a possible outcome, that was his plan. >> masha, stick around for us if you can. i want to dip back into moscow, and go to our nbc news chief international correspondent. keir simmons. we didn't know when it was coming. it was a couple of seconds away from our last conversation. what did you make of what you just saw? >> reporter: well, it's stunning, isn't it. we have been talking today about russia batting off from the edge of chaos over the weekend. now it's clear that that story really isn't over. what we just heard from president putin five minutes long was a national address but directed really at one person,

and that was yevgeny prigozhin, whose 11-minute audio recording that he released today was in itself defiant, claiming and saying that he does not -- he did not intend to try to topple president putin but questioning so many things, and now you have, you know, kind of president putin answering that, talking about the fact that what they tried to do on saturday was avoid a big bloodshed. describing it, though, once again as a mutiny, just as he did on saturday, an armed mutiny, saying that it would have been destroyed if they hadn't have come to this agreement, describing it as a tragic mistake. president putin not in any sense backing down, just as we heard from yevgeny prigozhin, some hours ago, not backing down. but it effectively is a war of words between the president of russia and the leader of this private army. now, just remember, the leader

of this private army that according to reports may or may not be in belarus, but has been offered some kind of factory in belarus, from president lukashenko who apparently we're going to hear from sometime tonight. coming up to 30 minutes after 10:00 in the evening here in moscow, so kind of prigozhin firing kind of verbal grenades from, potentially, belarus, at president putin here in moscow. president putin firing back. the only way you can describe this television address tonight. not really making any announcements, just simply giving an answer. i think president putin as i mentioned earlier had to say something, that all he'd had was a television speech to young russian engineers which didn't address the rebellion over the weekend, and potentially was recorded before that.

clearly president putin had to say something. he can't think really calmed the waters. we do not know what comes next, and at this point, after that, more so. he once again, by the way, it was a speech that we just heard, so there may be elements that, you know, we haven't kind of crossed yet. he too in that speech said that those wagner fighters should sign up to join the mainstream ministry of defense here in russia, that they should agree to that. well, yevgeny prigozhin has said already that his fighters don't agree to that, he's not prepared to disband, that independent band, as president putin presents them. >> keir simmons, thank you very much for sticking around for us.

let's bring in former u.s. ambassador to russia, michael mcfaul, thanks for being with us. so in listening to that translation, obviously it's a translation. masha gessen. >> i listened to the russian. >> tell me what you got out of it. >> i think it's very clear what he's trying to do. everybody thought it was going to be something dramatic because peskov thought it was. he's trying to divide the wagner mercenaries, the soldiers, from their leadership. he's trying to do exactly what prigozhin was trying to do with the russian conventional forces. you have been lied to by them. they dragged into this war. said the same thing about the wagner fighting forces. that's my interpretation of why he did the speech. what i think is behind is that they must have signalled that they're not lying down their forces as you were reporting.

prigozhin said a couple percent did that. and putin is afraid of them. they are trying to put some division saying they were deceived to do this mutiny. joining us and let's throw your commanders under the bus. >> prigozhin might be in belarus. we know the president of belarus, lukashenko said he was the one who negotiated this. you heard vladimir putin give a shout out in this speech. masha brought up in an article they wrote for the new yorker, isn't there a question of whether it's a good idea to put prigozhin on the side of lukashenko. lukashenko has been relying on vladimir putin for security support, for helping him maintain power. if he has the head of a private mercenary who's been pretty successful in ukraine suddenly on his side, who's to say that lukashenko doesn't start using prigozhin against vladimir putin. doesn't need vladimir putin in the same way that he did a few days ago.

>> yeah, i've seen that hypothesis. i don't share it. i think that assumes lukashenko's more independent than he is. i think he's very dependent on putin, and not just for military stuff, for all sorts of things. i think what's going on here is they're trying to divide the leadership of wagner from the fighting forces. maybe prigozhin will get to retire in belarus. i'm not sure of that. remember, he's not the only commander at wagner, there's a whole counsel, and these are people that have been around for years. they're not just people picked out of jails a few months ago. i think he's trying to say they were the traitors and want to put a division between that council of wagner leaders and the soldiers, and i'm not sure it's going to be successful, but it seems to me that was the principle message of putin's address tonight. >> and it seems to me, vladimir putin seems threatened by the wagner group, it got through to

them. >> yes. absolutely, why would he give that speech. there's no other reason to give that speech than because he is fearful of them. if everything was going swimmingly, and they're signed up for contracts with the armed forces and laying down their guns, he wouldn't have to give this speech. i think he's trying not to repeat it, but he hasn't succeeded yet in getting them to disband, and so that's why he leaned in saying you guys are heroes, that's what he said, right, you as soldiers are doing the right thing, it's your commanders at fault. a complete echo of what prigozhin said three days ago. >> prigozhin brags about his successes in ukraine. he brags that he's the only one that's been able to capture any territory in ukraine that the russian army is a mess, they can't do anything. that's part of the reason why he said he was upset, he thinks that the head of the army, sergei shoigu is not doing a very good job.

can vladimir putin continue to wage war, hold ground in ukraine without the help of prigozhin and the wagner group? >> he can. wagner's better for offensive things on the ground as opposed to defensive holdings. they're now in a defensive posture. it hurts them of course. these are experienced fighters. they did achieve objectives in bakhmut, at a horrific price, by the way, they lost a lot of people there. but they have a reputation for being fighters too and that, i think, is another difficult thing that putin is trying to wrestle with. he can't arrest them all and say they're all traitors because to many russians and including, i think, russian soldiers, they are heroes because they fought so valiantly in bakhmut. he's trying to do this delicate dance of saying you guys are okay, it's your leaders that are

at fault, and we'll have to wait and see how the leaders are involved. >> first to you, what do you think this means, ambassador, for vladimir putin's control of russia. do you think he's able to stand for election next spring? does he last that long? >> oh, i see no signs that he won't be in power for that election and in the long term. i don't see the dissolution of the russian governments. all the governors supported him. all the commanders supported him. the intelligence services are on his side, and a lot of other people are just standing on the sidelines. they're shocked. these people i know, they're shocked. they're scared of what happened, but i think we're a long ways away from the fall of putin. >> masha, what about you? >> i think i mostly agree. i think what we saw over the weekend was kind of a preview of how the putin regime ends if it ends with something other than vladimir putin's death, which is still the most likely end to the

putin regime. it will, if it ends with something else, it will be sudden, it will probably look at first as many coups do. it will probably be a coup, but coups are extremely unlikely, and most coups fail, and this wasn't intended as a coup, and i think there's something else that's very important to understand above what happens when prigozhin staged his march to russia. which is, you know, we see that he encountered little to know resistance. that doesn't mean that the defense ministry troops went over to his side. what i think it means most likely is that considering that they're aware of his close relationship to putin, they weren't sure they would be on the right side of history if they tried to protect from him or the regions that he moved through. but once the orders from moscow were clear to defend moscow

against prigozhin's troops, that's when prigozhin turned around. right. so we don't know that we're seeing, necessarily, support for prigozhin or support for the mutiny, such as we saw last weekend. >> still a lot of questions as everyone keeps saying. masha gessen, ambassador michael mcfaul, thank you very much. yevgeny prigozhin, what he said he did and didn't do. we're going to be back in 60 seconds. e back in 60 seconds. mmer's who's boss. and wayfair's got just what you need. they have all the top grills and gear. with smoking fast shipping. and wayfair deals so epic... you'll feel like a big deal. yes! so get outdoorsy for way less at wayfair. ♪ wayfair, you've got just what i need ♪ the first time you made a sale online with godaddy

was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com the subway series is getting an upgrade! the new #19 the pickleball club. who knew the subway series could get even better? me, i knew. maybe you should host a commercial then. sure, okay. subway series just keeps getting better. the united states says it's not exactly sure how to define what happened in russia over the weekend. quote, i'm not going to slap a bumper sticker on it said the nfc's john kirby a moment ago when he was asked how they marched toward moscow. to be fair it's hard to tell exactly what happened. we just talked about it. for a moment, it seemed like a coup was possible, a moment

later, prigozhin announced he was packing up, headed to belarus. what makes this more complicated is the wagner group has been key to russia, not just in ukraine but in africa and beyond. nbc news chief foreign correspondent richard engel has been working on and is now hurrying up a documentary to explain who yevgeny prigozhin is, and he laid out the stakes for us. >> reporter: the revolt in russia, which was led by yevgeny prigozhin, leader of the wagner mercenary group does not appear to be over. a short while ago, prigozhin issued an audio statement describing his version of events, why he said he took his troops which he estimates to be about 25,000, and sent them marching toward moscow. he said that his fighters, who have been fighting on the front lines in ukraine since the beginning of the war were given an order to disband, that they were supposed to be incorporated into the ministry of defense, and there has been a long

rivalry between wagner and the ministry of defense. prigozhin has accused the ministry of defense of denying his men ammunition, of treating them like cannon fodder. he said his men refused to join the regular army and then were attacked. he said they were attacked by helicopters, that 30 of his fighters were killed. at that stage, he said they broke into two column, one heading to the city of rostov, where they delivered their weapons, and there was video of them in the city of rostov being greeted by the locals, in some cases, being celebrated and cheered, and the other column heading toward moscow. he said they stopped short of moscow because they achieved their aims. he said the goal was never to topple the government, but was to express their displeasure with the ministry of defense and to show how vulnerable russia had become because of the ministry of defense, because of the incompetence of the leadership, and he said had wagner been in charge of the war from the beginning that his men would have been able to march on

kyiv and would have won the war already. throughout the statement, there was no mention whatsoever of vladimir putin. so it didn't sound like he was offering reconciliation. it did not sound like he was offering peace. it sounded like someone who was still talking about war, still speaking from a position of strength. or at least trying to. >> richard engel, thank you very much. and joining me now is former senior intelligence officer at the cia, responsible for operations in europe and eurasia, marc polymeropoulos, and david petraeus, as an officer in the u.s. army, he's the author of "the modern mercenary," okay. i want to talk to somebody who was a mercenary, sean, tell me what does it mean to be somebody like yevgeny prigozhin, i'm not comparing you to him, obviously. >> thank you. i mean, first of all, the term in the industry is private military contractor, thank you.

but, you know, prigozhin, first of all, he's not a mercenary. he's an oligarch. but the wagner group are mercenaries, so it's sort of led or has been led or was led by a guy called dmitry, a retired colonel in russian special forces and the reason why people joined that world is a mystery, but one of three reasons, one is they need the money and they're ex-soldiers or two, they're ex-soldiers and can't reintegrate into civilian life, three, they're psycho paths, and four, in the case of new guard of wagner, it's this or spend your life in jail. so it's a mysterious calling and a growing calling and a much more dangerous world than most people assume. i think this has been a wake up call, this trend that has been going on for 20 years. >> so where does prigozhin fall in all of those descriptions? >> so prigozhin is more like ins

30-year war in europe, there was this guy who was a financier and he created sort of regiments for ferdinand ii who was fighting in the 30 years war, but he became so rich, so political, and had armies at his back that the emperor assassinated volenstein in his sleep, and i think prigozhin is a similar model. he himself is not a former soldier. he's a businessman whose business happens to be war. he's a war entrepreneur, and i think that he's also super ambitious and despite all the recent mixed signals coming out of moscow, i don't think his desire for political ambition has waned any, and since he has an army at his back, he's actually in quite political of a situation. >> so war entrepreneur, that's

reporting that my colleague richard engel has done on what yevgeny prigozhin is doing around the world, especially in africa working with leaders of not so stable african countries while helping to prop them up while mining the vast natural resources they can get, getting diamonds, et cetera, lumber, making money off of it, and sending a lot of money back to russia for the war in ukraine. a lot of what the wagner group is not just pure brawn, doing it in syria as well, not just the muscle mark, but it's also a lot of finances. i imagine this complicates things for somebody like vladimir putin? >> it does. >> marc, go ahead. >> oh, pardon, so, you know, the way we look at the wagner group, i left government in 2019, and so things might have changed a bit, but look, the wagner group was an extension of the gru, of russian military intelligence.

you know, they trained together, they certainly received their equipment from them, and so calling them a private military contractor, in some sense, we think of the equivalent of a black water in the united states, and i think it's actually vastly different, and so if vladimir putin would use wagner as an extinction for russian foreign policy, and, you know, they did so in a lot of conflicts around the world, which would give the russians a foothold, but also would, as you know, katy, bring back some type of wealth. the one thing that i like to remind viewers is back in 2018, in the deserts in syria, there was an exchange between, you know, wagner forces and the u.s. special forces from the joint special operations command. wagner forces picked a fight, and the end result was 300 dead wagner forces. they're not 10 feet tall when going up against something like the u.s. special operations command. but they are very useful to

russia, and i think this does affect kind of russian foreign policy, active measures overseas. this will be a bit of a dent to vladimir putin's ambitions globally. >> i would disagree slightly with that. this is not an extension of the gru. they're not statutory forces, they're not a covert militia, they are mercenaries, and for all we know, prigozhin could be entering dialogue with zelenskyy to get off the battlefield in exchange for payment. these are not under control of putin. we saw that clearly in the last 48 hours, 72 hours, and while they may not be a threat to the united states of america, that's not the question, you know, 40,000, 50,000 wagner group armies, the second best army in ukraine. all of the big victories, we won't call them big, but all the

victories in bakhmut, are really done by the wagner group, and so if, right now, if they leave the fight, then russia is going to have a hard time winning ukraine. it's just going to prolong whatever is going to happen. but i do think that they're an x factor and if they leave ukraine, they can go on to africa, where they support industry, and prigozhin holds the control factory, the cyber war. >> the ira. >> yeah, the ira, and he uses them together, and offers this to places like sudan and it's a two-fer, you've got the wagner group on the ground and the cyber aspects from st. petersburg. so he doesn't need moscow. he can actually go his own way. moscow might try to kill him, and he might try to kill moscow, but he's kind of an independent actor. i don't think he's a militia gru, per se. >> sleep with one eye open.

marc, i want to ask you about intelligence, we don't have the greatest visibility, from what i understand, the greatest visibility inside russia. does a situation like this present an opportunity? >> there's enormous opportunities on this. look, this is the super bowl for the intelligence community now. it certainly looks like within the last week, you know, there were some warnings. the ic did accomplish that function. there were briefings to the gang of 8. here's where things get interesting now, in times of crisis like this, a lot of people talk. there's going to be laser focus on, you know, russian regime communications whether it's the presidential administration, whether it's the russian military. people are going to want to determine the loyalty. at the same time, at u.s. embassies around the world, there's a welcome mat. there's a shingle being laid out for russians who seat chaos back home and who want to kind of take that step. there are certainly opportunities for u.s. intelligence. it's hard, you know, russia is a

hard target. it's an autocratic regime. it's hard to get in there, but, you know, from our ability to, in fact, you know, call or predict the russian invasion of ukraine to what it looks like that we picked up prigozhin moves, i think we're doing okay. always opportunity and room to get better. one last piece, it's really important, the u.s. intelligence community will be laser focused on kind of the russian nuclear arsenal and security posture, that is going to be prime, you know, with president biden and the security council, looking at the ic to monitor, and this is standard collection. i'm sure they're on that right now. >> the largest nuclear arsenal in the world belongs to russia, not exactly the country you want to be unstable. and just to button up our breaking news, vladimir putin has spoken for the first time in a couple of days, and he addressed the would be rebellion, whatever you want to call it, directly, saying that blackmail is doomed to failure.

he also said it's going to hold the organizers accountable, that it's criminal, but he also said he thanks the members of the wagner group who decided to turn around and told them either join the ministry of defense, join the russian army, or go home. left enough wiggle room according to our experts to say that could also include yevgeny prigozhin, the leader of the wagner group, we will see what happens next. marc polymeropoulos, and sean mcfate, thank you very much for joining us. ahead, the quote, very real 2024 threat that democrats are worried about. first up, though, an nbc news exclusive, the january 6th grand jury hears from several secret service agents. what they testified to. what they testified to fundamental freedoms are under attack in our country today and there is a national agenda at play by these extremist so-called leaders. it will be a national ban on abortion. it is the tradition of our country

to fight for freedom, to fight for rights... to fight for the ability of all people to be who they are and make decisions about their own lives and their bodies. and we will fight for the ideals of our country.

nbc news has exclusively learned that secret service agents testified before the january 6th grand jury. two sources familiar with their testimony say the agents were complying with subpoenas from special counsel jack smith. joining me now is nbc news homeland security correspondent julia ainsley. so they were there to testify about january 6th. do we have an idea of who they were and what they might know? >> reporter: we don't know exactly who these five to six agents might have been. we understand they've already appeared before the grand jury. that's the washington grand jury, looking into trump's

involvement in the capitol insurrection on january 6th, 2021, and trump's overall involvement in trying to overturn the results of the election. so we can imagine the topics jack smith would be interested in and why he would pick these agents to then go before the grand jury. we understand a lot of times they can interview many more than that, but then they pick a smaller group to actually appear before the grand jury. of course we would be interested or jack smith would be interested in having them talk about what cassidy hutchinson already mentioned a year ago this week, which is that the president, former president trump, tried to tried to steer his car back toward the capitol and actually ended up putting his hands on the wheel and then on the clavicle. she was told that by tony ornato who went back to the secret service after he serve in the white house, whether it's unclear whether or notengel or ornato have been asked to testify. they would want to know exactly what the secret service knew

leading up to that day. remember those text messages we never got because they disappeared during a routine system upgrade. what did they know about the threat level, and further more, what was it like being near vice president pence that day and what did trump do or not do to try to save his own vice president as an angry mob stormed the capitol and demanded he be lynched. we know they've been meeting regularly, even twice last week or more. this is all as jack smith really has a steady drum beat in addition to what he's already done in florida on the mar-a-lago case, this is his other case. he's bringing more people forward who will have the eyes and ears into that day, perhaps even be able to get more information than we saw last year from the committee in congress on january 6th, katie. >> all to get to donald trump's head space, his mind-set in that moment, i imagine, his motivation. i'm also recalling a moment on the ellipse before he gave the speech according to the

testimony from the january 6th hearings about how he said to take down the mags even though he allegedly knew that some folks in the crowd, according to the secret service chatter, were armed. >> that's a great point, and of course secret service would not want to keep any -- would want to keep anyone who would be bringing a weapon onto the ellipse away, that they would want those scanners there. was there communication and are secret service agents able to talk about the communication and what exactly the president was saying that day, how close did he come to trying to get into the violence himself and promoting it. there's a lot they would want from the secret service. group is smaller than the group that testified before mar-a-lago. as many as two dozen secret service agents.

it could be they were the closest to the president on that day and can really get into his mind-set, which is going to be key to any document that might come. >> julia ainsley, thank you very much. democrats are warning their voters that trump could win, the states they fear that could flip back to donald trump in a general election. on at pnc bank, you can find us in big cities and small towns across the us,

sleepovers just aren't what they used to be. where our focus is a house full of screens? basically no hiccups? you guys have no idea how good you've got it. how old are you? like, 80? back in my day, it was scary stories and flashlights. we don't get scared. oh, really? mom can see your search history. that's what i thought. introducing the next generation 10g network. only from xfinity.

to finally lose 80 pounds and keep it off with golo is amazing. i've been maintaining. the weight is gone and it's never coming back. with golo, i've not only kept off the weight but i'm happier, i'm healthier, and i have a new lease on life. golo is the only thing that will let you lose weight and keep it off. who loses 138 pounds in nine months? i did! golo's a lifestyle change and you make the change and it stays off. (soft music) former president trump. 49% to 45%. that's within the survey's margin of error. when we matched up ron desantis, biden ties with the florida governor at 47%. so democrats say to you that they're nervous. explain. >> right, and i think if we could just look at that number first. the actual data that we just got here yesterday really fits the

conversations and anecdotes i've been hearing in previous weeks. a lot of those conversations with democrats, they're private ones. folks are not wanting to say out loud they're concerned about joe biden here. that's not what we're talking about. i want to talk about donald trump here. the potency of the support behind him is what is so crucial. he turned out a record number of votes on behalf of republican nominee back in 2020. in each of the key battleground states here. and democrats are very aware that there is a cross section of america that is wholly backing him. i mean, we're talk about more than a third of the country that believes joe biden's an illegitimate candidate. if you're looking at what cornell west candidacy, a potential third-party candidacy from a no labels ticket, you're dealing with the reality that in some of these key states that there's a lot on the line if donald trump is able to turn out that potent base that he has built up. right now from the primary voting here, it would suggest that he's in a good position. >> so it's kind of wrong to just

look at overall numbers because elections aren't overall numbers. they come down to individual states, and sometimes it's just a few thousand votes in any individual state. and we saw that in 2016. we saw it to a similar degree in 2020. are there certain states that democrats are more nervous about than others? >> look at georgia, wisconsin, arizona. if you flip those three states, joe biden would have been under 270 electoral votes. >> but we've seen evidence of ease of those states repeatedly that donald trump's rhetoric is not popular. it's not winning. arizona, the governorgovernorsh also in georgia. >> correct. i will say, though in kari lake's case she lost by 17,000 votes. that's not that much. look, if donald trump could juice out turnout even more in some of those rural parts, there is the ability to do that, they could compensation for those independents that they are losing here.

this is a lock here, and democrats i think are having a reckoning because of the likes of tim ryan said he went around the state of ohio trying to convince the trump base he was that working class democrat that could best represent them. we've got news around the implosion of the titan submersible. the u.s. coast guard has launched the highest level investigation it can launch. five major pieces of the titan have been located and now investigators will try to figure out what exactly went wrong. joining me now is nbc news correspondent tom costello. so tom, explain it to us. >> this marine board of investigation is what the coast guard has launched. that's the most senior type of investigation it can launch, and based on the findings, it could then refer this to a criminal or civil sanction type of action. we'll see how that plays out. the coast guard is not the only investigative body. the canadian transportation safety board is also investigating, that has already interviewed crew members as well

as recovered the black box on the mothership, and the royal canadian mounted police are investigating. there are multiple international investigations underway here, much of the focus is going to be whether the ceo of this company, whether he ignored the warnings that the hull, which was made of carbon fiber, that it was simply potentially too vulnerable to the extreme crushing depths of the ocean. there were many engineers who warned him that this was not safe. he proceeded anyway. he declined to do an outside engineering review. as the investigators look at everything that happened here and why five lives were lost, they will clearly also be looking at the culpability, whether this company, whether the ceo bears any responsibility. the ceo was on the record as saying people worry too much. also saying that if he listened to all the outside experts, they would never get down to the

bottom of the ocean down to the titanic. by the way, nine other submersibles regularly make trips or have made trips out to the submersible to the titanic. this is the only time anybody has died. >> let's keep it that way. tom costello, tom, thank you very much for joining us. also just such a tragedy. that's going to do it for me today. "deadline white house" starts right now. ♪♪ hi there, everyone, it's 4:00 in the east on a day full of news here at home and abroad. we'll have several live reports from kyiv on the ongoing crisis unfolding in russia in a couple minutes. but we start with the efforts to hold accountable those involved in a coup plot here at home. there is brand new reporting breaking just this afternoon that some of the people who had a front row seat to the actions of the disgraced twice impeached now twice indicted ex-president before, during, and after the capitol insurrection may now, right