heart ♪ ♪ i feel like this is the beginning ♪ ♪ though i'd love you for a million years ♪ our attack on donald trump's claim that he was the apple of russian president putin's eye, we've got a lot to get to this morning, including trump's decision on whether or not he'll attend wednesday's republican presidential primary debate, we'll show how his gop rivals are responding. meanwhile the former president has until friday to surrender to authorities in fulton county, georgia, we'll have more on the possible time line with that. also ahead the latest on the life-threatening storm hitting southern california, prompting a state of emergency from the governor and an update on the recovery efforts in maui ahead

of president joe biden's visit to hawaii later today. a lot to get to on this monday morning. welcome to "morning joe." with us, we have u.s. special correspondent for bbckatty kay and charlie sykes is with us. willie will be back tomorrow. right now, we're following new polling that shows donald trump's hold over the republican base is as strong as ever, in the latest cbs poll, the former president has 62% support from likely gop voters, and among those likely trump voters the poll shows they trust the former president even more than their own loved ones. let's put a framer on that.

they trust the former president more than they trust their own loved ones. they feel what trump tells them is the truth ahead of friends and family at 63%. conservative media figures at 56%. and a religious leader at 42%. >> all right, so this weekend, mika and i last night were having a conversation around the table and mika was just asking how could people still be so devoted still to donald trump? it's important to say here, we weren't talking about how can people vote for republicans? she understand that. we were not saying how, you know, somebody could be pro-life, more an expanive view

of the second amendment than the supreme court even, we weren't talking about issues, it was not related to conservative or republicanism. we understand why people might be turned off on the left. this was about donald trump. how can people support donald trump? the question just kept coming up. really no good answers. except, you know, the question is, is it a cult? is it a cult? charlie, you look at the definition of cult leaders, i just saw this on google off the top, cult leaders must be dynamic, charisma and convincing, to control their members to inquire money or related advantages. these characteristics are crucial -- donald trump doesn't

really have any teachings or doctrine except follow me blindly. think about it, charlie, how twisted it is, just generally, that in america people follow a political leader -- like, we always ask the questions, why do people have flags of a politician? trump people might like be proud about that. that's nothing to be proud about, politicians serve us, we don't like wave flags for them, but these numbers, these numbers, 71% follow trump, trust trump explicitly. 63% trust their friends and family. mika was saying, wait a minute, these people know us, they talk with us, they share our values in so many ways, we've known

them for years, we know these people, like why wouldn't they sit around the table and talk to this community and you look at that number, they trust a politician, a failed reality tv talk show host who has been indicted because of what he did with a porn star, indicted for trying to steal an election. then conservative media figures, people go, they watch fox, now trump members are attacking fox news and then this is the most shocking thing coming from the evangelical church, nearly 30% more people blindly follow their cult leader donald trump than their own religious leaders,

that's like, please, don't tell me about how this is a jesus thing, it's not a jesus thing it's a cult thing when 30% more blindly follow trump than listen to religious leaders, this is one of the most revealing polls in quite some time to answer the question, why do people blindly follow trump? i don't know any definition exactly what a cult is, i read it on google, a lot of things certainly line up. it's bizarre. focus on that 30% more blindly follow trump and trust this politician than they trust their own religious leaders, despite everything that he has done. >> no, it's a cult and i'm glad you're featuring this, joe, because this was the number i was looking at last night as i was preparing for the week, if you had any doubt that the

republican base has become this alternative reality, just look at those numbers, it's hard to get your head around that degree of devotion, who do you believe is going to tell you the truth? and you have more than 70% name someone who is probably the worst chronicle liar in american history. when you have 30% more saying we believe that trump tells us the truth rather than religious leaders, this explains why the religious objectives to donald trump aren't going to lands and why it's probably beyond the capability at this point of church leaders to say, no, this is the wrong direction for us to go, but this is a pretty good example and a pretty good example between the cbs poll showing that he's above 60% now despite all of these

indictments, i think we have a picture here, again, how do you break through that, how do you do this? >> well and one of the reasons you can't break through if you ask why and you actually try literally to have an coer saying, why do you feel this way? what was the fact-based event that leads you to this conclusion? they'll go, stop, stop. i can't. i will not. i will not talk about it. that's what i got last night. that's a cult. you believe what you believe even though it may not be true. you follow blindly. >> following blindly, again, we don't know exactly -- we'll let people much smarter than us decide what a cult is. i will say, though, as somebody

that went to the church, not a good baptist, not a good lawyer, but i did know the bible, i did read the bible, my parents had me in church three or four times a week, so, you know, none of this lines up with everything we were taught growing up. i'm talking about evangelicals, conservative catholics. none of it lines up. people have been asking themselves, what's going on with our faith, what's going on with our tribe? and the answer is that these pastors for the most part are bending to the will of their parrisher ins because they know what we saw in this poll that if

they say you have to choose between jesus christ and this church, and donald trump, they'll pick donald trump and they do every day. >> yeah, despite all of the stories that we have had about his personal live. in 2016 with the access hollywood tape, when that came out what he said about women perhaps that would be the line that evangelical christians supporting him would come up against and they didn't. sort of the deal that donald trump did when he called in evangelical leaders into his campaign during the 2016 campaign and said, listen, you overlooked this and i'll give you exactly what you want and a kind of a pact that was made that felt benefited. this poll is a real belief, not a transactional bargain where they look the other way, this is actually we do believe that

donald trump is going to be the person that will tell us the truth and it's the remarkable thing about him, he's managed to stir up such incredible strong feelings, we used to republicans fell in line and democrats fell in love. republicans in love and democrats kind of in line behind their presidential candidate. >> look at these numbers. again, the numbers are stark to say the least. who do they believe? 71%, donald trump, among trump voters. more -- almost ten points more than their own family and their own friends. 15% more than conservative media figures. they're saying this on fox news and that's -- no, actually, it's

15% more which is why he can say i'm not doing the republican debate and then, again, this is the most surprising thing that this would ever happen in america, that this would ever happen in the republican party, 42% believe religious leaders compared to 71% who believe donald trump. that certainly sounds like a cult. we've seen all the deep programming trying to -- parents tried to bring pastors in, people of faith in to reach their children, to reach family members in a cult and they just won't listen. well, they're not going to listen to religious leaders and they're not going to listen to people of faith or in the ministry of jesus christ who have committed their lives to studying the gospel.

they're going to follow this politician. despite everything that he's done. >> they hate with joe biden with a passion. you may hate his policies they hate him based on, oh, he's a crime family. >> no, they hate him because if you're in a cult, you can see this, you hate everyone not in the cult. to destroy every other belief system and remain in your insular bubble and this's exactly, exactly where they are. >> let's look at iowa, new polling from iowa. the new voting state shows donald trump is still the person to beat but there's potential for some movement. for the numbers let's bring in steve kornacki at the big board with the latest. steve, what do you got? >> this is an exciting new adventure with nbc we partnered with the des moines register,

this is the absolute gold standard poll of the first in the nation caucus state, we've seen all of these numbers about national polling in this republican race but it all starts in iowa, the theory of every candidate trying to beat donald trump is that they can win iowa, get traction in iowa and take that slingshot. the iowa polling we have been missing all summer high-quality iowa polling, right now we've got the gold standard unveiled to you. these are the numbers here, this is the bottom line in terms of asking likely caucus goers who they would support right now, trump is well ahead, 2 to 1, 42%. ron desantis the only challenger in double digits at 19%. tim scott just under 10%. nikki haley, mike pence, chris

christie, down to will hurd. trump with that sizable lead here in iowa. looking inside the numbers, evangelical voters in particular, in 2016, republican donald trump didn't win evangelical voters in the iowa caucuses in 2016, he didn't win the iowa caucuses in 2016, ted cruz did. two-thirds roughly of all iowa caucus goers in 2016 identified as evangelicals, this is a huge voting bloc, there's trump at 42%. mike pence who has built his political career on ties to evangelical christians, he's at 6% with evangelicals and his unfavorable rating, 51% with evangelical voters in iowa.

asking iowa republicans here, has trump committed serious crimes, only 26% believe so, 65%, nearly two-thirds said he's not committed serious crimes, this poll was conducted sort of between the news coming out of georgia last week of the latest indictment, the portion of the poll conducted before that news broke had donald trump leading in iowa over ron desantis by 18 points, the portion of the poll that was conducted after the news of the latest indictment had donald trump's lead swelling to 25 points, you see that rally around trump effect that seems to take hold with which one of these indictments. historically here, donald trump leading by 23 points. des moines register poll has a rich history going back to the 1980s. republicans at this point, republican races at this point

in the cycle who has a lead comparable to donald trump's 23 points, george w. bush he led by 27 at this point, he ended up winning by 11. bob dole, they called him the president of iowa, up 26 points, he won in '96 but only three points in the caucus, a big lead shrinked dramatically there, the leaders weren't as big as trump's is right now, if somebody is going to make a move and catch trump in iowa, why might that be? ask about the favorable/unfavorable ratings of these different candidates. desantis may be 23 points behind trump but desantis actually has the best margin here on

unfavorable/unfavorable. trump's numbers are very strong, stronger than it was in 2016. tim scott extremely popular, too. nikki haley popular as well. chris christie, extremely negative. right now if you're looking and somebody who might be able to make a run at trump in iowa, most likely a desantis, a scott, maybe a nikki haley, when we ask voters who their second choice is it's spread out, desantis gets the second highest total. tim scott is there. the problem for desantis is not only is he 23 points behind he's very well liked still by republicans in iowa but not as if he's the default second choice of all of those voters in iowa. we just asked voters in iowa,

what's most important going with a candidate closest to viewsen issues. best chance to defeat joe biden in they said closest to their views. trump with massive lead there of 30 points. those looking at electability, trump leads but desantis is within 10, scott's in double digits, the more iowa republican voters focus on that question of electability, that's where trump starts to get into a closer contest here with his opponents, so overall a very big lead for donald trump in iowa, one that historically that has portended good things for candidates in that position. notably desantis and scott and haley who are still very well known and very well liked by

republicans. >> that's fascinating. 96 drop by bob dole, mitt romney coming back from behind, a good bit from behind. so steve, katy kay has a question, he gets indicted with 19 co-conspirators and rico charges, he's on tape lying trying to rig the election, and you got the republican leaders of georgia, the republican leaders of georgia, not left wingers, the republican leaders of georgia telling voters he's a liar, saying, no, the election wasn't rigged, but what happens in this poll, again, facts don't matter? again, we don't know the exact definition of the cult is. but my gosh, certainly it's

bizarre that facts don't matter, actually his numbers go up after he's indicted in a multicount criminal indictment to steal an election. >> yes, it's a feature of populism and it has been for the last decade. we're in an era of purist politics not pragmatic politics. do you want someone who shares your views or are you going to vote pragmatically and vote for somebody who can actually be elected and beat joe biden? two-thirds majority say, no, what matters to me is the purism of donald trump, what he's offering, the populism, that's where the iowa voters are at the moment. i love the history steve, are we going to '96 bob dole lead evaporate or more like 2000 and

see george w. bush maintaining his lead. does the polling throw in all of those democrats who might be sitting home at iowa caucus night, i'm bored, i'm going to muddy the waters and vote for a candidate. >> the one thing that we did look and i don't have the graphic to show you here, independents we asked about independents potentially deciding to participate in the caucuses and that's actually where both trump and desantis did the worst, is just a very small share of the overall pie there, when you start brdenning it out to independents it gets to -- you find it more likely for voters concerns about trump and electability. again, it's interesting, too, you saw that briefing in the

polling coming out in november midterm, but there was all sort of polling, some national, state, where trump's lead, national state level was not that massive, it's actually grown since february or march of this year, really since those indictments began, the first indictment came in new york city in manhattan the first of this wave, if you had a trend line i could show you, but trump's lead has grown since that first indictment. ral around trumping effect that was around him. again, of these candidates running against donald trump, you can spend months doing

events with 50, 200 people, build support that way and if you can win iowa you can roll it into the subsequent states. look at how well liked desantis is, how well liked scott is. can one of them consolidate support in the next few months? can one of them consolidate support, move up within striking distance of trump in iowa and really try to make it effectively a two-person race there, if that's the case you can see in these numbers a scenario where it can get interest zmrg i'm curious -- thank you, steve. i'm curious as to how this debate resonates, whether it gets a lot of looks and if someone can really break through, but charlie that rally around trump effect with each

indictment, we have this thursday or friday where he's going to be arraigned, do we expect that to continue and it leads me to worry it will trigger bad behavior on trump's part if he sees this rise with each indictment and each legal problem, that creating legal problems might be his way forward? >> well, let's go out on a limb and say it will encourage more bad behavior from donald trump because he's donald trump. i don't think we'll see the dynamic changed. one thing that he's done is to play the victim card, they're not just coming after me they're coming after you, which feeds into the point that one of the essences of this cult is the degree to which they fear, loathe and hate the opposition, not just joe biden the entire democratic party and the left. if you convince people that the enemy wants to destroy you,

you're going to tolerate a lot of bad behavior, so this is a cult, we're seeing that it is a cult and what does a cult do under pressure? it closes ranks and it rallies around the cult leader. >> so it's fascinate tag you said this, there's this belief inside the cult that everyone wants to destroy the cult, i was talking to an evangelical leader last week who had told me that he was being cursed out by a religious leader for basically being a tool of satian and opposing donald trump, not falling in line blindly with donald trump. i said, just explain it to me, i do want to know, we grew up in the same tradition, all reading the same -- tell me, why would

they do that? why are they still there? he said it's so interesting your answer, he said, because there are people out there every day making money sending out direct solicitations saying they're coming to you, they're going to take christians and put them in concentration camps, if it's the guns they're coming to get all of your guns and lock you up, that fox special that said the helicopters that went after the taliban are coming to america, they're coming after you, the fbi is going to kick down the doors of all trump supporters and arrest them, it's actually -- that's the cult message, which is they're coming to get you and your family, everybody outside this little bubble, outside of this

political cult is the enemy. >> yeah. right, and donald trump is the big protector and if they get donald trump they'll get you as well, you know in terms of evangelical christians and this notion if you don't support joe biden you're a tool of satan it's extraordinary how many of his fellow christians actually believe some of the teachings of the jesus christ, they say that's woke, that's too left wing, there's been an inversion of what christianity is. to be an identity system. purity of politics has trumped -- how do you explain you have a cult that includes so many church-going evangelicals look at trump and see his lies

and his crimes and go, yeah, we're okay with that because that what stands between us and the satanic hordes that are trying to destroy -- >> the theology dominated for thousands of years around christianity, is centered around the sermon on the mount. and in there are the teachings of jesus. summed up and at one point, said all of the teachings fall into this verse and in this sermon and yet these are the very areas, the very areas that are the centerpiece of christian theology for thousands of years that christians today, are

throwing eye way and by the way, members of trump family went out on the campaign trail and said, jesus' teachings are too left wing, jesus' teachings don't relate anymore, aren't relevant anymore. turning the cheek, not relevant anymore. for evangelicals watching, how far afield it's come, you read the sermon on the mount and it's about forgiving. turning the other cheek, blessed are the meek, blessed are the merciful, blessed are the peacemakers, over and over again, you see all of these things that donald trump is not and that he's taken former

followers of jesus' teachings to now say, on national tv, those teachings aren't relevant anymore, because we have a reality talk show host who became president for four years. and we're going to follow him again. so there you go. >> we'll continue this conversation but right now, we're following severe weather in southern california, where a tropical storm hilary is pummelling the los angeles area. this is the los angeles metro area, the storm made landfall yesterday in mexico and quickly moved north to the united states, hilary is already smashing records for rainfall across california with some parts of the state reporting nearly 3 inches of rain yesterday, let's bring in meteorologist bill karins, bill, good to see you, but terrible circumstances, give us the latest. >> good morning, this storm did

exactly what we were afraid of. the wind wasn't a huge ordeal. it's been all about the rain the mudslides, the landslides, the burn scar areas, hundreds if not thousands of scenes like this, roads washed out, communities that are cut off, mostly in the mountains to the north of l.a. and to the east of l.a., san diego for that matter, too, it's going to be a mess, pictures were taken before sunset and the rain got worse after that. the storm itself did cross over california's tropical storm, only the fourth time in recorded history that's ever happened, that's why this was mind-blowing big deal. so the storm is racing northward, we're all done with it in southern california, just a little bit of rainfall left, by the way, some of the highest

rainfall totals 11 inches the mountains here. san diego, 2 inches. l.a. 2.5 inches. typically never rains in los angeles in summer. usually in the winter. so this is unusual. the palm strings area, they lost 911 call capabilities during the overnight hours in the middle of this horrific storm. flash flooding will continue today mostly in areas of nevada, boise and areas to the north. we're not quite done yet with this storm in the mountains. where some of the highest gusts will be, how about this, joe and mika, we're toward the peak of hurricane season, we're expecting an active season, we have frankly gert and emily, three storms.

a tropical storm heading toward texas. we're expecting a very active next month and our thoughts are with everyone in southern california. >> we'll be watching the los angeles area and beyond, bill karins, thank you very much for that report. good to see you zmrrjts still ahead on "morning joe" the latest on donald trump's indictment in georgia as the former president is expected to surrender to authorities in fulton county this week. how is it going to be executed? plus, without trump on the bebait stage ron desantis is expecting to be at the center of attacks from gop rivals. a look at florida governor's game plan, also ahead, republican presidential candidate will hurd hasn't qualified for wednesday night's debate in milwaukee but he's still going after ron desantis, the former texas congressman will be our guest, you're watching "morning joe."

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bail in four different jurisdictions. when do we stop thinking that's normal? nominating someone who's out on bail is not a winning formula. whether you believe in the criminal prosecutions or you don't, two things, they're real, and two, his conduct is reprehensible. >> reaction from two of donald trump's gop primary competitors, to him saying he will not participate in wednesday's republican primary debate. the former president made the announcement on truth social yesterday. citing the latest cbs poll which shows he's leading the gop race by a wide margin. while he won't be debating this week he'll be surrendering. trump has until friday to turn himself in to the fulton county jail in atlanta in the latest

indictment against him. three senior law enforcement officials familiar with the plan say they don't expect the former president to appear before thursday. an attorney for trump didn't immediately respond for a request for comment. do we know anything about plans being made, like special plans that might make his surrender different than any other person surrendering at fulton county. >> the sheriff has said he'll be treated like any other. the jail is notorious place, so bad you wouldn't wish it on your worst inmates, three inmates have died there. even the sheriff has called it a humanitarian crisis.

crumbling walls. folks are using -- inmates are using pieces of walls as shanks. donald trump will be booked there and processed there. we expect a mugshot there. >> political conference, a conservative political conference in georgia, brian kemp said that republicans who want to win next election need to understand it's time to move on. >> it's important for republicans to be confident in the process but also important for the democrats and anybody else to be important in the process, for the people still out complaining, you can believe whatever you want about the 2020 election that's your right, i understand that i have no problem with that, but the thing is that was three years ago. if you're still mad about that quit complaining about that, sign up to be a poll worker, be

a poll watcher, get involved in the process, door knocks, phone calls, do something that will help us win in 2024, complaining is not going to help us. >> oh, my lord. charlie sykes. a republican talking the way like republicans used to talk, let's win, let's look forward. we need you to help us. like, that was so rational. and republican. >> i didn't recognize it. >> well, georgia is kind of ground zero of the trump effect, they've lived through what happens when you allow trump to take precedent. they lost two senate seats on january 5th. failed to get it back again in a state where brian kemp wins easily for governor, they've

seen this upclose and personal, they've also experienced the consequences of donald trump's lies, i do find it interesting how different the georgia republican party is from the arizona republican party, which has been taken over by the wingnuts, but brian kemp is basically saying, guys, we don't need to go down this particular path, georgia is always going to be interesting to watch particularly this week when we see donald trump doing his perp walk. what a commentary on a modern political party where the fourth indictment of this guy, the fourth indictment, the fourth arraignment will possibly boost his poll numbers, that says something about the party where character matters and the party of law and order doesn't. >> it really does. you looked at those numbers out of iowa that steve was showing us, his numbers went up after

his fourth indictment. if you want to lose again that's your business, you've been losing since 2017. keep losing. maybe you can help us out here, georgia does seem to be almost a stand-alone republican state along with utah you can have people stand up to donald trump win big in the republican primary. i'm fascinated, taken by anecdotal evidence, it started adding up, my oldest son went to the university of alabama, he had friends who lived in birmingham and friends who lived in alabama, i'm curious, how are your friends doing? my friends in birmingham are voting for donald trump. my friends in atlanta are voting for joe biden or writing in jeb

bush or they're writing in anybody, it was so fascinating that the same group of friends at the university of alabama, all republicans, all conservatives, split like that and i didn't think anything about it at the time. when brad raffensperger won huge in the republican primary i said, man, there's a big political divide among republicans along that alabama/georgia line. >> yeah, joe, those are the bloc of voters who have changed this electorate in georgia. they've shown over the past few election cycles they're willing to break with the republican party. they voted in significant numbers for joe biden in 2020, for jon ossoff and senator warnock in 2021 and last year the same bloc of voters splitting their ticket.

they voted for brian kemp and other republicans statewide constitutional offices. and they voted for warnock for re-election over herschel walker. >> charlie, i'm so glad you're here, this is incredible. we got somebody from wisconsin and somebody from atlanta that can draw the lines, right, a lot of those people, like my son's republican friends, several probably didn't vote for joe biden, they wrote in somebody or didn't vote at all which reminds me of what ron johnson said, caught on tape, no it wasn't rig, you look at donald trump and joe biden's vote i think he said there were 56,000 undervotes, republicans voted for everyone else they just let the presidential line unmarked,

that is the republican party's biggest challenge if donald trump wins the nomination, republicans aren't going to vote for joe biden, a lot of them aren't, they're just not going to vote. >> you can see this can in the milwaukee suburbs i mean the trump secretary twofold, number one, you have an erosion in the suburbs and you have this massive explosion of turnout in liberal areas, you know joe biden may not be the most charismatic figure and this's concern, are the voters motivate snd democrats don't need much more motivation than donald trump 2.0. there's an extraordinary number of these voters who don't necessarily show up in, you know, in some of the focus groups, we don't send reporters to diners to talk about

independent women in wakesha county. simply not going to vote, but any case that's a big loss for republicans in swing states like wisconsin. >> founder of the conservative website the bullwark, charlie sykes. thank you very much for this conversation this morning. coming up, the u.s./japan/south korea agree to deepen military ties. as threats from china and north korea loomed over president biden's first camp david summit. "morning joe" is coming right back. ning joe" is coming right back try boost® high protein with 20 grams of protein for muscle health versus 16 grams in ensure® high protein. boost® high protein. now available in cinnabon® bakery-inspired flavor. learn more at boost.com/tv

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putin never would have gone into ukraine but that was just on my relationship with him.

i used to be his apple of his eye, tough stuff there. >> tough stuff there. >> i was the apple of his eye. hold on, i was the apple of putin's eye. >> and there was some tough stuff there. >> he sent love letters to kim jong-un. and then with president xi, talked about how brilliant and wonderful he was and thanked him for his transparency on covid, this is a guy who may not be the best judge of character on the foreign stage. >> the former president, once again, suggesting putin would not have invaded ukraine had he remained in office this time claiming he was the apple of putin's eye. >> who says that?

who does that? who does that? >> as for the current president -- >> a weird dude does that. crazy. >> by the way, trump members, you know, you had a faux pas earlier, you said trump members, instead of followers. >> it works. >> these members would not notice one thing that president biden has done and it's okay if you don't like the inflation reduction act or the chips in science act or reproductive rights, executive orders, i don't know, saving the world from world war iii and boosting america's standing on the world stage. you don't have to like that but to blindly hate biden and think he should go to jail i would argue that you're the victim of disinformation of a constant

barrage of disinformation and you might want to look at where you're getting your information. as for the current president on friday joe biden hosted the prime minister of japan and the president of south korea at camp david. the leaders announced south korea, japan and the united states will hold trilateral meetings between top government and military officials at least annually. the three nations will work with each other to respond to regional challenges and will hold joint military exercises together each year. the nations will also share with each other missile-warning data. >> let's bring the chief international analyst for nbc news and admiral, thanks so much for being with us. katy kay has the first

questions. >> when i lived in japan in '90s you couldn't have gotten them in the same room let alone a summit. president biden said this is not about china but it is about china to some extent, isn't it? >> it is entirely about china. in a geopolitical sense. enormous angles, the leaders of the third largest economy in the world after ours, the first, would be japan, roughly the ninth, tenth largest, so this is an economic plan alongside that military geopolitical one. you're right, it very much has to do with china. look, operated for decades in the pacific, i would see japanese and south korean war ships try and kind of do exercises together under a u.s.

umbrella, never worked, there are two nations that will never be the apple of each other's eyes, however they can come together and work productively, kudos to the biden administration here, it's smart geopolitics and smart economics. >> you have the south koreans and the japanese worried about china's saber rattling vis avis taiwan. here joe biden, convening this new kind of alliance if you want to call it that, how much does it put america back in the center of action in that region of the world? >> oh, oh, very significant. i will put a particular here, which is we have an excellent quad alliance, if you will, between the united states,

japan, australia and india, katty, as you know. that's the quad, four nations that work together, share intelligence, operate in the indian oegsz and the western pacific. how about we make that quint? we bring south korea into that mix and when you put alongside what's happening with u.s. nuclear submarine technology going to australia, a new leap in our relationships in the philippines under a lot of stress under previous president duterte, under a new president we're accessing those bases, all of that fits together not encircling or containing china. the idea here is to deter china from adventurism, claiming big chunks of the south china sea, i think again, the u.s. is in a

very significant geopolitical position, that's a good thing in asia. >> admiral, i've been sort of obsessed with this, we've talked about nato and ukraine, we've talked about the expansion of nato with sweden and finland, we have two things going at the same time, we have the flexing of nato's muscles the strongest nato alliance we've ever seen, my gosh, i think we're doing the same thing in the pacific when you look at sort 06 the flexing of guam, the philippines, japan, south korea, australia, you look at owl of that and just draw a line throughout asia and see that, it seems to me this is one of the most significant pivots to asia that we have had in a very, very long time, certainly in peacetime, i can't think of another time.

>> when you look at the importance of this moment as china claims territorial ownership of the entire south china sea, this vast body of water that's half the size of the united states of america, we the international community can't allow that kind of land grab, in this case a sea grab, to stand. so how do we oppose it? we don't massively move our fleets into the center of the south china sea, instead we build this glittering array of alliance, like a string of pearls, in and around east asia and it's smart business because no one of us, no one nation is as strong as all of us working together and finally, these are alliances, these are friendships in the case of india, we don't have a formal alliance there but

over time these relationships are going to deepen and one we haven't mentioned that punches way above its weight, joe, is singapore, this tiger of asia, another strong economy, excellent armed forces, when you put it all together it's a powerful coalition that stands alongside the nato alliance in europe. i feel pretty good about all that. americans should as well. >> no doubt about that. let's talk about ukraine. about six, seven, eight months ago officials at the pentagon quietly, not to cross diplomats and not to cross the white house, were quietly telling me they were very skeptical that the ukrainians were going to be able to push back from russia from their dug-in positions and said they're just not going to

be push those russian troops out of their country and putin is not going to be able to achieve his aims, they didn't say that the lines that we're seeing now are the lines that are going to be in place for as long as this war goes on. but, again, six, eight months ago, if you could read through the lines that's what their intel was telling them, eight months later, so many more deaths, they're right, are we looking at world war i-type lines that are just going to be immoveable until we have a peace treatment. >> point one, war is unpredictable, i think the intelligence is largely accurate in describing what you were told, let's remember, just like in sports, things can change very quickly in the flash of an eye, last night i watched a tennis match, spaniard alcaraz

playing against djokovic, each of them held match point several times through the match until djokovic finally prevailed. war is unpredictable. point two, i wouldn't count out entirely a ukrainian breakthrough, they still haven't put the massive armor to work but bottom line, joe, unfortunately this one looks on land as though it's settling down. i'll close with this, look to the sea, but look at what's happening using sea drones, sinking russian warships at sea, there's a lot of battle space that you can go around the land warfare and finally as these f-16s come online over the next six months let's hope that in

the air will see a change, on land you can bet on the static in the air and at sea i think we've got some significant changes ahead. >> all right, admiral, thank you as always. we're four minutes past the top of the hour, new polling shows donald trump's hold over the republican base is as strong as ever. >> and the white house cheers. this is great news. like, when trump people shout out trump 2024 you almost feel like saying, own people on the democratic side, i heard them do it, the democrats are thinking, well, let's hope so, because we'd like to win next year and donald trump is the only person who would lose to joe biden. >> at the same time, i feel

sorry for people who in a cult. >> in this case i feel sorry for people who support donald trump if they think they're going to win the yen election. you just look at the history of it and this is a nightmare for republicans. >> in the latest cbs survey the former president has 62% sfort from likely gop primary voters. among those likely trump voters the poll shows 71% say they feel what trump tells them is the truth. ahead of friends and family. at 63%. conservative media figures, at 56%. and religious leader at 42%. let that settle in for a minute. let's bring in the president of

the national action network and host of msnbc politics nation, reverend al sharpton. >> rev, we're not going to say this is a suttle. we don't know how to define cults. at the same time, you look at this and see people are going to trust donald trump more than they just their family, they're going to trust donald trump more than they trust their friends, they're going to trust donald trump more than trust conservative media figures, they're going to trust donald trump more than they trust their leaders of faith by almost 30 percentage points. more than trust their pastors, more than they trust their priests, more than they trust

men and women of god. if you want to start digging into and studying whether this is a cult or not, we don't know whether it's a cult or not, we're not qualified to make that assessment, i know there are probably going to be a lot of smart people studying kults and looking at these numbers, they trust this failed reality tv host more than they trust family members, friends and religious leaders, it sounds whatever it sounds like sounds awfully ominous especially when you look at all of the things that donald trump has done to break their trust. >> well, i'm not qualified to define a cult, but i can only suggest that if looks like a cult, it walks like a cult, it

quacks like a cult, let's use the word "cult." the real sad part about this to me is for those of us who have known donald trump they believe in things that he represents that he doesn't even believe in, what they don't understand donald trump only believes in donald trump. he doesn't believe in the kind of philosophy and politics and policies that he's emanating, it's just every day it's whatever serves him, he feeds to what he think are people's biases, people's prejudices and people's gut feelings they feel they have cast aside and replaced. but he himself doesn't practice

what he preaches, he doesn't practice what he's telling them and if there was ever one that was a elitist self-serving person is an opposite of the blue collar people who want to bring america back to the day they felt they were included donald trump is the self-indulgent guy who could care less about them. donald trump not only didn't care when he lived in new york, he didn't care about harlem, he didn't care about working-class whites in queens where he came from and they don't understand that he's playing on their weaknesses caused by an appetite that hasn't been filled, rather than solved the problems they faced he plays on the results of the problem. >> you know, there's a fascinating article yesterday in

"the new york times." it was talking about how ron desantis used to wallow in his yale degree, took great pride he went to yale. >> did you get into yale? >> it was funny. i was wearing a yale t-shirt, they asked if i went to yale, i said no, i had trouble -- i applied to yale law school. they said no. but if i had i would be really honored. so is ron desantis, bragged about it. he's part of the secret

societies. ron desantis was ashamed of being a yalie on the campaign trail. but throughout most of his life including into his political career he was proud of it and drawing on what reverend al said, donald trump and he knows this and i know this, obsessed with yale degrees. obsessed with yale degrees. actually said his attorney general i think you said his attorney general was stupid because he went to the university of alabama. he was obsessed. he would make fun of him behind closed doors, he was always

obsessed with people who went to ivy league schools and that's how ron desantis got his endorsement. ron suddenly, oh, wait, i don't like yale now. we don't like yale. >> so snobby. >> exactly. they're all phonies we need that chart where all these phonies went to college. >> josh hawley. >> i'm sorry. right now, they'll get it up. the first nbc news des moines rental stern media comp survey of 2024 has donald trump ahead of ron desantis 42% to 19%. before your head explodes it's august 2023. tim scott in third place at 9%.

followed by nikki haley at 6%. desantis is the most popular second choice at 20% and tim scott at 15%. and vivek at 12%. how exciting we got anne working with nbc news on this poll, we're so grateful to have you here. give us some of your takeaways on this poll. >> thank you. it's a pleasure to be working with nbc news, you got a crack data squad and it's been really fun. so far so good. i think one of the standouts items here is that while trump has a strong, maybe even commanding lead there are tea leaves here that suggest this

race could be closer and could close, and one of those reasons we take a look at the footprint, what level of attraction are any of these candidates getting, first choice, second choice and if not, are they actively considering -- the difference between trump and desantis is mince >> caller: there. 63% for percentage points for trump. 61% for desantis. you got this level of activity that people are really kind of shopping and taking a look. first choice is trump. but the field sort of begins to condense once we take in other measures. >> talk about the fact of the timing of this poll. lay out for people kind of what changed amongst iowa caucus

goers' views around that event. >> yes, and this is another finding that sort of jumped off the page at me. we were in the field for two nights before the indictments were announced in georgia and then we were in the field after that and the difference in that footprint number for former president trump it jumped 12 percentage points in the positive direction. so we hear people talk a lot about, well, these indictments are going to have an impact, they're going to hurt former president trump, it's going to be a problem, the strongest evidence i have seen, but that these indictments actually are solidifying trump's support. >> isn't it a fact that because iowa is a caucus where people have to go out to caucus that the indictments for those that

feel he's being persecuted ands a motive to go out, they have a reason to go caucus and is it not the challenge then of his opponents to give people a reason to energize them to go caucus, not only go vote but caucus, what gives him an advantage him being trump his people are motivated. they're standing up to almost protest the indictments. you don't see the other candidates to go and caucus here. >> that's where building a ground game, a ground organization is so vitally important and one of the things that you made me think about the trump campaign plan of holding rallies is in some ways that's like a rehearsal for a caucus, you need to come to a specific place at a specific time and

spend hours, so the way that the trump campaign has been organizing is a bit of a rehearsal for that but that's up for the other people to grab, one of the other facts about the caucuses they don't draw massive numbers of people. and from cycle to cycle you can see dramatic shifts in how many people show up on caucus net, an opportunity for the other candidates to really build new caucus goers out of people who have never caucused before and bring them into caucus net, when they know what to do in the room on caucus net we can see some surprises. >> are there any republicans whose numbers surprised you or that show potential? and how do we factor together how the governor is doing in iowa and then --

>> especially with donald trump attacking her. for her not endorsing him. >> she said she wouldn't allow it. we'll see how that plays out, typically governors don't get involved because they want iowa to be seen as welcoming to all candidates and so that's a good reason for the governor to stay out, her favorability numbers are the strongest of any personality we tested in this poll including donald trump's. so she has the right to kind of that, kind of has the opportunity to play it but he also knows that people want her to stay out of it. you asked me if any numbers surprise me, the third place of tim scott is also something to pay attention to, so his

footprint number, again, people who are at least actively considering is in the 50% range, so he's in the top tier of candidates that are out there, i'm also surprised chris christie who has written off iowa but he gets 5% of the votes for first choice. >> interesting president of the polling firm, seltzer and company. thank you. >> i think tim scott has a high ceiling. the numbers, too, ron desantis, much like john mccain at this point in 2007 running a dreadful campaign, mccain came back and surprised everybody after being written off in july and august in 2007, came back in 2008, won the republican nomination.

if desantis could right the ship i'm just saying politically you look at those numbers he has a shot to certainly get close and possibly win, it's still really early. >> it's early. >> let's wait and see. let's bring in vaughn hillyard in des moines, iowa, for us this morning, and vaughn is hearing from voters in, owe. >> vaughn, we're fascinated. we're showing polls this morning that show people listen to donald trump and believe donald trump more than they believe their friends and family members, conservative media figures, it's a club or call it a cult, we're bouncing around, we're not qualified to figure out exactly what you call it, whatever it is, those are some striking numbers, i'm wondering

what you're hearing on the ground in iowa from republicans and just the level of support for donald trump and more importantly why they're sticking with him through porn star convictions, through charges of sexual assault, a judge saying he raped this woman, stealing nuclear secrets, i could go on and on but you get the point, why do they stay so committed to him. >> reporter: right, two ways we can look at iowa caucuses, one through the polling and two anecdotally and the voters. when you look at the data side, the gold standard, numbers that provide credence to some of the

conversations we've had on the ground here, you see donald trump's sturdy support, two-thirds of his supporters say they firmly are behind him. compared to ron desantis, just one-third of his supporters in this poll will absolutely caucus for him next year that opens up part of the conversation that we had with a couple of the voters yesterday in terms of who's the alternative to donald trump, take a listen to a conversation we had with four voters who actually participated in ann's poll, we talked to them, two trump supporters, two who are looking elsewhere. take a listen. do any of you somebody not named donald trump has a chance to win the iowa caucus next year? >> yes, i do. >> why? >> personally i think that a lot of people that are in my shoes that want someone other than donald trump aren't as vocal as

the donald trump supporters. and so i think when it comes time to go in there and actually vote, i think then we'll see what's really going on. >> a possibility that remains but diminishes. >> i think he has an excellent chance of winning in the general election. a lot of support. trump supporters -- >> why has he held on to such a tight grip? >> still so much anger at the process in the sense of what has happened in the political arena. and i think he draws on that. >> reporter: again, all four of those individuals who just heard from were actual participants in the poll and deb from council

blufs is quite reflective of the sturdy support for donald trump that you have seen in national polling. but here in iowa, 23 point, a sizable lead, but there are folks like jody, like dennis, who are looking for an alternative and when we asked those anti-trump republicans you heard from, they said any other republican they'd vote for in the general election, they're considering desantis, tim scott and chris christie, their decision will come down to viability. there are still several of these candidates that are in the running actively being considered here, but right now donald trump is looking like he has the likes of bob and deb in his corner. these other iowa republicans who in the months ahead are worthy of their votes.

>> a couple of fascinating things there, deb was the last one who responded, right, so many people that support donald trump it seems and i'm just talking about my family members and friends, not so much about donald trump he's against the people they feel have always looked down on them, and the people they feel hate them hate donald trump. there's that connection, there's an us against them thing and that played out. one other fascinating thing, your first respondent, the woman who wasn't voting for donald trump -- >> jody. >> yeah, i wonder if in the republican party this year we'll have the reverse bradley effect. we always found when we were in large groups in 2016 would say,

how many of you are voting for donald trump? 1 out of 1,000 people would vote. they'd all whisper when we left, i'm voting for trump. peer pressure goes the other way if you're around republican friends, really be the one to say, yeah, i know liberals hate him, i know msnbc hates him, but i'm not voting for him anyway. now, do we have -- first time i thought about it listening to your interview -- is there a possible of a reverse bradley effect they're afraid to admit to their friends they just had enough of donald trump. >> reporter: jody is particularly interesting human being in this, i've never been on camera, she was nervous

sitting down with us, she had conversations with the two trump supporters bob and deb sitting next to us, jody said she was making -- she felt she was making herself vulnerable with the acknowledgment that there's such steady trump support and such passionate trump support. you mentioned flags waving. jody went and said she wanted to go on camera and open up and have part of the conversation that there are alternatives to trump out there and i think your point is a good one because here in iowa when you go to caucus you got to stand in your neighborhood, in front of your family, friends, folks at church and you got to say i'm supporting someone who's not donald trump. a new law was passed here in

iowa usually democrats and independents could show up on caucus day and show their party affiliation and participate the new law here allows the republican party to require folks to have registered as republican weeks in advance here, folks like jody and dennis, they'll be out there and they're going to be the republicans saying we need to take the party in a new direction if donald trump is to be pushed off his post here. >> vaughn, thank you very much for your reporting. still ahead on "morning joe," spain is the women's world cup champion for the first time. we'll have the highlights from yesterday's title match. plus, new reporting on how president biden is planning to respond to wednesday night's republican primary debate in milwaukee. also ahead, an update on recovery efforts in maui as the president travels to hawaii today.

and we'll get a live report from san diego, as southern california is battered by tropical storm hilary. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. right back.

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and sadly carmona learned after the match of her father's death. the spanish soccer federation said he had been ill and died while carmona's other relatives traveled to australia to watch her. the family waited until after the title celebrations to deliver the news. >> she did just extraordinary match, some moving very words about her father after the game and after she heard the news. katty you watched it from beginning to end. >> i got up 6:00 in the morning in virginia to watch it, spain deserved it. quick passes, they found the space, they just opened up the

game for themselves and right for the first few minutes pretty clear that spain was dominate and it was hard for england to catch up. look, in the end this has been a great tournament for women's sports, it's been a great tournament for girls who are in soccer whether they're english girls or spanish girls it was a wonderful final and, you know, i feel sad for the lionesses of course. >> it was an exciting tournament, of course we weren't excited with the united states going out early, but so much for the u.s. women's program to be proud of, winning back-to-back titles before this. they can certainly hold their heads up high. england can do the same. it was really an inspirational tournament. speaking of something not inspirational at all, yesterday,

through the weekend, we had to sit through -- i don't know -- i think this is the cruelest thing that the yankees have ever done to the red sox to let us sweep them in late august, they're just setting us up to break our hearts, they're going to start winning now and they're going to have a september like nobody else, and yes they're in last place now, but guess what, secretary ree yat came from the back and broke the record. watching the yankees moved past them, get into the wild card and win the world series it's going to be a tough one, mika, for the red sox. the bradenton herald reports students are leaving new college

in florida for a school in massachusetts. officials say about 12% of the student body has either transferred to hampshire college in massachusetts or applied to transfer, that school is offering students the same tuition as new college, 38 out of 90 full-time faculty members have also resigned from the florida university. in massachusetts, the boston globe leads with a conservative push to target diversity efforts in business. the move is in response to the supreme court's decision to strike down race-based affirmative action in colleges, now conservative foundations are looking to do the same in corporate america, the paper notes some action has already been taken including a lawsuit filed this month against a grant program for black female entrepreneurs in georgia.

mississippi's record-high student test scores. republican governor tate reeves attributed this to the state's education reforms and the decision to keep kids in school during the pandemic. others argue the system was gamed by the state's decision to hold some students back at a young age. >> well, test scores are test scores, reverend al, we've seen that reading in mississippi and other southern states have shot up significantly, not exactly sure why, isn't this something, i mean we look into it, it's great news, mississippi usually 48, 49th, 50th. alabama, also seen student test scores go up as it pertains to

reading, man, let's hope there's a bigger message out of these positive results from these deep south states that have always struggled with test scores. >> when you look at the rising in these test scores and looking at the testing to make sure that it's being done correctly and so far we've not seen any real questioning of that, it's a good thing. i mean, literacy and the ability to compete in the broader culture in terms of your intellectual ability is something that was always used as a way of keeping people back by having them not developing their intellectual skills. i think it's good news across the board in the south whether you're black, white or whatever.

the rising of literacy is a good thing and something we need to find out what's the reason that all of a sudden we're seeing this rise and try to duplicate that in other areas if in fact there's a sound kind of way that we can find out that's the root cause of this improvement. >> rev, quickly, can you tell us about the anniversary march that you and so many other leaders are going to be taking part in, it's so exciting and it's just around the corner, one of the monumental moments in american life over the past century. >> it's the 60th anniversary, the march is this weekend, 11:00 at lincoln memorial in washington, labor unions and civil rights groups from across the board, it's really to say

that we need to stand together as they did 60 years ago in a diverse gathering to highlight that we have a common need to deal with hate crimes, to deal with the erosion of voting rights and to deal with the rise of gun violence and economic inequality and we may not agree on every issue but we unite around those four areas, you must remember in '63 there were different movements going on, there was the students sit-ins against bus companies in the south, there was other

variations in north carolina, the march in '63 brought everyone together to highlight what every wanted and we're trying to highlight that we all want the same thing and that's our human and civil rights protected across racial lines and gender lines. the rise of hate crimes, the fact that we're seeing less rights today than we did than i was a kid, women have lost their right to choose. we've seen the erosion of voting. we've seen affirmative action killed. there's been no national response. we're saying '23 what they said in '63 we'll show a gathering that we won't go back in time. >> you look ahead at the froups that have lost ground and also so glad that reverend al has had

such a close relationship with anti-defamation league and reverend al has been a real champion in underlining the rise of antisemitism over the past 20 years along with jonathan glennblatt. the rights of all americans it seems have taken a step back, two, three, over the past seven, eight years in a dramatic way. so perfect timing for the 60th anniversary of the speech that changed america in a way that few other speeches have. back to politics of today, donald trump won't be participating in wednesday's first republican debate. a total of 10 candidates appear to have met the criteria to participate in milwaukee.

meanwhile in a memo shared with nbc news the president's re-election campaign said it expects the candidates to try and quote outmaga each other on the debate stage in milwaukee. the memo lays out five criticisms against republicans including their views on abortion and gun rights as well as their efforts to undermine democracy, this comes as the biden campaign plans to launch a series of ads surrounding the debate including putting up several billboards around milwaukee. what more are you hearing about the biden campaign's plans to really amplify their own accomplish pts around this debate? >> we're expecting to see a full-court press on wednesday, i'm told that there will be biden campaign officials and dnc officials on the ground in

milwaukee, and a war room right here in washington, d.c., we know that there will be dnc officials again in the dnc headquarters here conducting sort of a rapid response, a realtime analysis of what these candidates have and i'm told they have pages of research on each candidate about their stances on things like abortion, gun rights and they'll have video clips ready to tweeting them out. they'll be realtime responding here. i think we saw the success with that marjorie taylor greene video, taking her speech, trying to undermine biden's social programs and they're hoping to get that sort of response again that garnered 30 million views. fund-raise off of this debate. text blasts, e-mail blasts.

what this operation shows is how much of an advantage biden has as an incumbent. he can partner with the dnc. in the republican party they have to wait until a nominee is named. to given a example biden can receive a contribution of $900,000 compared to republicans who have a limit of a few thousands. >> so, there's a long list of accomplishments by this white house that some republicans may not agree with those accomplishments but they are there and there are the three issues that i named leading into you, abortion, gun reform and democracy which really seems to be a trifecta compared to what the republicans bringing to the table. do democrats have any other

strategies to counter the disinformation out there about president biden? >> one thing i thought was interesting from this memo they specifically named candidates that's not something we have seen the biden campaign really do or president biden himself even when he refers to trump he often calls him the last guy or the former administration he doesn't directly target him, what they're going to do now that these debates are starting to have a more aggressive response to some of these things these candidates are saying. trump won't be on the stage but they're hoping to tie all of these candidates as beholden to trump. many candidates are still very reluctant to criticize donald trump and they're trying to paint broadly them as the extremist wing of party. but that could help them and

other democrats. >> thank you so much for your reporting this morning. joining us now former texas congressman and republican presidential candidate, will hurd. good to have you on. >> congressman thanks so much for being with us. let's start with issues right now, tell me what do you think the key issue is that other republicans in the race, the media in the race, aren't just getting right? >> well, i think, right now the number one concern that voters have when they bring things up when i'm crisscrossing the country is jobs and the economy, we talk about it in a very specific way what's happening with inflation but the reality is over the last 23 years we've seen the cost of goods and services increase three times faster than average salaries and

that's something that's driving some of the concern and fear that people have for the future, putting that on top of the fact that people are scared of these new technologies that are m coing. americans are aparade that robots are going to take that not enough people are talking about, how we can take advantage of technology before it takes advantage of us. and it's one of those questions i get asked every place i go on the stump. >> congressman, let's talk about immigration because you certainly know about immigration because your district obviously is along the border. we used to hear about complaints from republicans and democrats alike, that were along the border about how it's chaotic and out of control. now we're starting to hear it from new york city mayor eric adams. we're starting to hear it from the massachusetts governor and other governors that are democratic governors that are now saying it's overwhelming, it's too much.

we couldn't really talk about this issue so much without there being more heat than light during the trump era. he talked about a wall. it was mainly symbolic. republicans in congress, lindsay graham, john cornyn saying the wall is not the answer, but we can never get past that. i talk to small business owners, they want more immigration. i talk to leaders in silicon valley, they want more immigration. they want it legal, but they want more immigration. how do we fix this? republicans and democrats alike, both have reasons to come together and fix this crisis. how do we do it? >> sure. and look, i would even add 70% of republican primary voters want to see us streamline legal immigration, at a time when every industry needs more employees, this is an opportunity. so, first and foremost, you actually need leaders who are interested in solving the

problem rather than using this as a political bludgeon against each one of us. but the steps that we have to take, we have to first address the current influx of legal immigration that's coming in the country, that starts by not treating everyone as an asylum seeker. asylum is a real thing. it should be used. asylum should be provided. but when people abuse asylum, then the people that actually need it are the ones that are impacted. second thing -- >> can i ask you, congressman? can i ask you first on asylum because this is so important. we americans have always accepted people across the world seeking asylum. >> sure. >> you see it with the statue of liberty. it is what makes us different than so many countries around the globe. but, people knowing that's their ticket in may abuse that process. how in the world do we sort through those who are seeking political assume lum, religious

asylum, asylum for personal reasons. >> sure. >> with those who are just abusing the system. how in the world do we ever sort through that? >> well, it starts with -- to apply for asylum, you're supposed to be part of a protected class, meaning it's gender, sexual orientation, or religion. there are a number of specific areas. and then your government has to be persecuting you because you're part of that protected class, or the government is not protecting you against a third party who is persecuting you because you're part of that protected class. and we know those kinds of places around the world, that's one of the responsibilities of the state department is to understand these macro trends that are happening in those countries. and so you can start by saying, you give extra attention focus to those individuals that are in those places. another way we address this is the human smugglers are the ones that are telling people that are abusing the system what to say and what to do.

so let's dismantle the human smuggling networks throughout central and south america. if you think about the smugglers in mexico alone, 5.5 million people came in this country illegally. they each get about $10,000. that's $55 billion. so let's start treating human smugglers, drug trafficking and, joe, some context of that number. the entire u.s. intelligence budget is $60 billion. so let's dismantle these human smuggling organizations. let's treat them like terror organizations. we know how to dismantle these networks. it requires us to be working with our allies throughout central and south america. you can do those two things and you start addressing people take advantage of the asylum system and start talking about how do you streamline legal immigration. it's 2023. we should be able to determine that massachusetts needs more school bus drivers, texas needs more hospitality workers and florida needs more agriculture workers and americans aren't applying for those jobs.

so then you can say, hey, let's have people come here legally. guess what they come here legally, they're paying the state department and the federal government not human smugglers and they're paying taxes and contributing to our society. and so, this is something that we should be able to do. it starts by republicans and democrats talking. a guy like pete aguilar from california, democrat and i, work together to put a plan. so all of these ideas i just outlined exist. we need people that have the political will to solve it. >> congressman, i want to ask you about some of the rhetoric being used here. republican presidential candidate ron desantis is now vowing to leave suspected drug smugglers, quote, stone cold dead at the southern border if he is elected president. here is what he said on friday in atlanta -- >> we are going to authorize the use of deadly force against the cartels. if you have somebody coming in

with fentanyl in their backpack, they even breakthrough the border wall, where there is wall, if they're doing that, that's the last thing they're going to be able to do because we're going to leave them stone cold dead at the border. >> um, all right. so, this sounds like donald trump talking about shooting people in the legs outside of the white house. or down at the border. what's your response to that? >> the ron desantis campaign is circling the drain and he's trying to talk tough to try to be a clone of donald trump and people that talk tough usually it's because they don't have experience or -- with a particular issue. and look, there's some nuance in this. can we be working with the mexican government to help drug organizations that are killing americans and mexicos? absolutely.

that requires a partnership. mexico is our most important trade partner. the bilateral relationship between the united states and mexico is the worst that it's ever been. we should be intelligence in order to target the infrastructure and destroy the infrastructure that is moving people and product into illegal product like drugs into the country. fentanyl, i think it should be treated like a wmd, a weapon of mass destruction. we wouldn't allow precursor elements of a dirty bomb into the country. why are we letting a poison that killed 109,000 americans last year into the country? but we need to be articulating real strategies. unfortunately people that think they've been to the border once that's understanding of the border. every mile of the border is different. look, the northern border -- i'm only the candidate that's been to the northern border in the last nine months we have seen the number of apprehensions in the northern border increase

more than the last nine years. that's a problem. we need serious people that are going to work across the aisle and work with our partners around the world to solve this -- to solve this particular issue. that's why i'm running for president. so if people like that, go to hurd4america.com. >> former texas congressman and republican presidential candidate, will hurd. thank you very much for coming on this morning. >> thank you. coming up, former chief of staff, mark meadows reportedly told investigators he cannot recall donald trump declassifying documents before leaving the white house. that would contradict the former president's main defense in the mar-a-lago documents case. that's ahead on "morning joe." we'll be right back. on "mornin" we'll be right back. more shopping? you should watch your spending honey. i'm saving with liberty mutual, mom. they customize your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. check it out, you could save $700 dollars just by switching. ooooh, i'll look into that.

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putin would have never gone into ukraine, but that was just on my relationship with him, my personality over his. we would never have gone. i used to speak to those, the apple of his eye ♪ you are the apple of my eye ♪ ♪ forever you'll stay in my heart ♪ ♪♪ ♪ i feel like this is the beginning ♪ ♪ i love you for a million

years ♪ >> our take on donald trump's claim that he was the apple of russian president vladimir putin's eye. we've got a lot to get to this morning including trump's decision on whether or not he'll attend wednesday's republican presidential primary debate. we'll show you how his gop rivals are responding. meanwhile, the former president has until friday to surrender to authorities in fulton county, georgia. we'll have more on the possible timeline with that. also ahead, the latest on the life-threatening storm hitting southern california, prompting a state of emergency from the governor. and we'll have an update on the recovery efforts in maui ahead of president joe biden's visit to hawaii later today. a lot to get to on this monday morning. welcome to "morning joe." it's monday, august 21st. and with us, we have u.s. special correspondent for bbc news, katty kay doing "way too

early" news for us this morning. >> that's awesome. >> founder of the conservative website, the bullwork, charlie psychs is with us. willie will be back tomorrow. right now we're following new polling that shows donald trump's hold over the republican base is as strong as ever. in the latest cbs news ugov survey, the former president has 62% of support from likely gop primate voters. 46% clear of his closest challenger. and among those likely trump voters, the polls show they trust the former president even more than their own loved ones. let's put a framer around that. they trust the former president more than they trust their on loved ones. 71% say they feel what trump tells them is the truth ahead of friends and family at 63%. conservative media figures at 56% and a religious leader at

42%. >> all right. so this weekend, mika and i -- last night were having a conversation around the table. and mika was just asking how could people still be so slafishly devoted to donald trump. and you know, it's important to say here, we weren't talking about, how can people vote for republicans? she understands how people can vote republican. she wasn't saying, i don't understand and we were saying, we weren't saying we don't understand how, you know, somebody -- >> people close to us. >> could be pro life. we weren't saying we don't understand how people we know could have maybe a more expansive view of the second amendment than the supreme court even. we weren't talking about issues. it was again not related to republicans or conservatism. we certainly understand what people might be turned off on the left and some of the extremes on the left.

this is about donald trump. how could people support donald trump? and the question just kept coming up. and really no good answers except, you know, the question, is it a cult? is it a cult? you look at -- charlie, you look at definition of cult leaders. i just saw this on google off the top. cult leaders are dynamic, charismatic and convincing because their goal is to control their members to power related to money or advantages. these characteristics are crucial because the cult leader needs his members to strictly adhere to his teachings and dom trins. donald trump doesn't have any teaching or doctrine other than follow me blindly. but think about it, charlie. how twisted it is, just generally, that in america people follow a political leader. we always ask the questions, why

do people have flags of a politician. trump people might be proud about that. that's nothing to be proud about. politicians serve us. we don't wave flags for them. sit around the table and talk to this community. you look at that number, they trust a politician, a failed reality tv talk show host who

has been indicted because of what he did with porn star, who has been indicted for trying to steal election, which they know he tried to steal the election. i think they must be happy he tried to steal the election. they have heard the tape. then conservative media figures, oh because they watch fox. it's because they watch fox. no, now trump members are attacking fox news. and then this is the most shocking thing, coming from the evangelical church, nearly 30% more people blindly follow their cult leader, donald trump than their own religious leaders. that's like, please. don't tell me about how this is a jesus thing. it's not a jesus thing. it's a cult thing. when 30% more blindly follow trump than listen to religious leaders. it is -- i think this is one of the most revealing polls in

quite some time to ask, you know, answer the question. why do people blindly follow trump? and i don't know any definition exactly the cult is. i read it on google. a lot of those things certainly line up. this is bizarre. let's just focus on that 30% more blindly follow trump and trust this politician than they trust their own religious leaders, despite everything that he has done. >> no. it is a cult. and i'm really glad you're featuring this, joe. this was the number that i was looking at last night as i was preparing for the week. if you had any doubt that the republican base has become this her medically alternative to reality, look at those numbers. it is hard to get your head around that degree of slavish devotion. and the question there was who do you believe is going to tell you the truth. and you have more than 70%, name

someone who is probably the worst chronicle liar in merp political history, but it is the contrast when you have 30% more saying that we believe that trump tells us the truth rather than lely jous leaders. this explains, david french made this point yesterday. this explains why the religious objections to donald trump are not going to land and why it's probably beyond the capability at this point of church leaders to say, no, this is just the wrong direction for us to go. but this is a pretty good example and this is a pretty good example between the cbs poll showing that he's above 60% now despite all of these indictments. i think we have a picture here. but again, how do you breakthrough that. how do you do this? it is a fever that has not come close to breaking. >> well, one of the reasons why you can't breakthrough is if you ask why and you actually try and literally have a conversation and say i need to understand why

you feel this way, what was the fact-based event that leads you to this conclusion. and you won't even finish that. stop, stop. don't want to talk about it. i can't. i will not. i will not talk about it. that is what i got last night. and that is a cult. when you don't even want to talk about it because you believe what you believe even though you know deep inside it may not be true. you don't care. you follow blindly. you don't want to talk about it. >> the following blindly, again, we don't know exactly people much smarter than us, katty kay, decide what a cult is. we haven't studied it through the years. >> this is a cult. >> i will say, though, as somebody that went to a good baptist church. i did know the bible. i did read the bible. i was, you know, my parents had me in church three or four times

a week. so, you know, none of this lines up with everything we were taught growing up. i'm talking about evangelicals, conservative catholic. none of it lines up. i have been asking myself and people like russell moore have been asking themselves and other people, beth moore have been asking themselves, okay, so what's going on with our faith? what's going on with our tribe? what's going on with our church? and the answer is that these pastors for the most part are bending to the will of their parishioners because they know what we saw in this poll, that if they say you have to choose between jesus christ and this church and donald trump, they'll pick donald trump. >> uh-huh. >> and they do everyday. >> yeah. despite all of the stories that we have heard about his personal life and saw this in 2016 with

the "access hollywood" tape. when that came out and what he said about women and thinking, well, perhaps that was going to be the line that evangelical christians had been supporting him come up against and said, i can't go there. and they didn't. and there was sort of -- the deal that donald trump did when he called in evangelical leaders into his campaign, during the 2016 campaign and said, listen, you overlook this and i will give you exactly what you want. and it was a pact, a faustian fact that was made that they felt benefitted. this polling suggests something else. it suggests there is a real belief. this is not a transactional bargain they look the other way. we do now believe that donald trump is going to be the person that will tell us the truth. and it's the remarkable thing about him that he's managed to stir up such incredible strong feelings. you know, we used to say republicans fell in line and democrats fell in love. well, in this case it's trump supporters falling very in love and democrats who are kind of in

line behind their presidential candidate. >> look at these numbers one more time and go to steve kornacki to talk about new polling out of iowa. numbers are stark to say the least. who do they believe? 71% donald trump among trump voters. more -- almost ten points more than their own family and their own friends. 50% more than conservative media figures. again, oh, they're saying this on fox news. no. actually it's 15% more, which is why he can say i'm not doing the republican debate. again, this is the most surprising thing that this would ever happen in america. that this would ever happen in the republican party, that this would ever happen among so-called conservative voter.

nothing conservative about it. 42% believe religious leaders compared to 71% who believed donald trump. that certainly sounds like a cult. we have seen all the deep programming where you try to bring parents have tried to bring pastors in, tried to bring people of faith in to reach their children or reach family members who are in a cult. and they just won't listen. they're not going to listen to religious leaders or people of faith or listening to people who are in the ministry of jesus christ who committed their lives to studying the gospel. they're not going to do that. they're going to follow this politician despite everything that he's done. >> the thing that comes with it is they hate joe biden with a passion. you may hate his policies or whatever, but they hate him based on -- >> why? >> he's a crime family. >> no, no, no, no.

they hit him because if you're in a cult, you can see this, you hate everybody who is not in the cult. the entire purpose of the cult is to destroy every other belief system and remain in your insular bubble. that's exactly, exactly where they are. >> so let's look at iowa, new polling from iowa. the first voting state on the republican primary calendar shows donald trump is still the person to beat, but there is potential for some movement. for the numbers, let's bring in nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki at the big board with the latest. steve, what do you got? >> yeah. this is exciting new adventure for nbc. we partnered with "the des moines register." "the des moines register" does their polling with ann selzer. this is the absolute gold standard poll with the first in the nation caucus state. as you say, this all starts in iowa. the theory of every candidate who is trying to beat donald trump is that they can win iowa,

get traction in iowa and take that slingshot to the next wave of primaries into the nomination. so the iowa polling we have been missing all summer high-quality, iowa polling. well, right now we have the gold standard to unveil to you. this again from ann selzer part of our partnership, new one with the des moines register. these are the numbers here. the bottom line, likely caucus goers who they would support right now. trump is well aed he, more than 2 to 1. 42% ron desantis, only the challenger in double digits. he's at 19%. tim scott just under 10%. you see nikki haley, mike pence, chris christie and go down to will hurd at 1%. so trump with that sizable lead here in iowa. looking inside numbers a little bit, evangelical voters in particular, in 2016, remember, donald trump did not win evangelical voters in the iowa caucuses in 2016. he didn't win the iowa caucuses

in 2016, ted cruz did. donald trump is 47%. nearly 50% of evangelicals backing donald trump. two thirds of roughly all iowa caucus goers in 2016, identified as evangelicals. this is a huge voting block in the iowa caucuses. there's trump at 47%. there's mike pence who has built his political career in large part on ties to evangelical christians. he's at 6% with evangelicals and his unfavorable rating, 51%. with evangelical voters in iowa. that's pence who obviously taken his share of heat from donald trump over his actions january 6th. asking iowa republicans here has trump committed serious crimes, only 26% believe so. 65% nearly two thirds say he's not committed serious crimes. very interesting tidbit, this poll was conducted sort of between the news coming out of georgia last week of the latest

trump indictment. the portion of the poll that was conducted before that news broke had donald trump leading in iowa over ron desantis by 18 points. the portion of the poll that was conducted after the news of the latest indictment broke had donald trump's lead swelling to 25 points. so, again, you do see that rally around trump effect that seems to take hold with each one of these indictments. you saw that in this poll. also historically here, trump leading by 23 points, "the des moines register" poll is one that has a rich history going all the way back to the 1980s. these are republicans a in the point. these are republican races at this point in the cycle. who had a lead comparable to donald trump's 23 points? well, george w. bush back in the 2000s cycle he led by 27 at this point. he ended up winning by 11. bob dole, they called him the president of iowa for a while in '96 he was up 46 points at this point. he won in '96 but only by three

points in the caucuses. so there's an example where a big lead shrank dramatically. then you do have some examples here of candidates who led at this point and ended up losing. their leads weren't as big as trump is right now. but, if somebody is going to make a move and catch trump in iowa, who might that be? one way of looking at it is this, ask about the favorable/unfavorable ratings of these different candidates. couple things are notable. desantis may be 23 points behind trump. desantis has the best margin here on favorable/unfavorable. 66% of republicans in iowa had a favorable view of desantis, 29 unfavorable. trump's numbers very strong. stronger than it was for trump in '16 but desantis is a touch higher. tim scott, extremely kki haley . notably chris christie extremely negative. mike pence 42, 53 negative.

so right now if you're looking at somebody who might be able to make a run at trump in iowa, maybe -- most likely desantis, could be scott, maybe a nikki haley. when we ask voters, in fact, who their second choice is, it's spread out. desantis gets the highest second choice total. but tim scott is right there with 15% as well. vivek ramaswamy, 12%. so the problem for desantis not only is he 23 points behind, he's very well liked still by republicans in iowa, but right now it's not as if he is the default second choice of all of those voters in iowa. one other interesting number i think we can show you here, we just asked voters in iowa, what's most important to you? going with a candidate who is closest to your views or electability? a candidate who can beat biden? you see about two thirds said closest to their views on the issues. interesting split here. the one saying closest to their views on the issues, trump with a massive lead there of 30

point. those looking at electability, trump leads but desantis is within 10. scott is in double digits. so the more iowa republican voters focus on that question of electability, that's where trump starts to get into a closer contest here with his opponent. so, yes, overall, a very big lead for donald trump in iowa, one that historically has portended good things for candidates in that position. but you do see rivals here in iowa, notably desantis, notably scott to some degree haley who are still very well known and very well liked by republicans. and we have more than half republicans in this poll saying their minds not made up yet. >> that is fascinating. look at that 96 drop by bob dole. i mean, wow. that was a precipitous drop. also mitt romney coming back from behind, good bit from behind. so, steve, katty kay has a question for you. katty, i have to say, you look

at those numbers. he gets indicted with 19 co-conspirators in this rico charges. he's on tape lying about, you know, trying to rig the election. and you've got the republican leaders of georgia, the republican leaders of georgia, not left wingers, the republican leaders of georgia telling voters he's a liar saying, no, the election wasn't rigged. they win in the republican primary in a landslide. what happens in this poll again? facts don't matter. again, we don't know what the definition, exact definition of a cult is. and that's for people other than us to determine whether this is, in fact, a cult. but my gosh, certainly it is bizarre that facts just don't matter. that actually his numbers go up after he's indicted in a multi-count criminal indictment to steal an election. >> yeah. it's a feature of kind of populism and has been for the last decade or so.

but has grown more so that we are in an era of purist politics, not pragmatic politics. i thought it was so interesting that question about do you want somebody who shares your views? is that more important to you? or are you going to vote pragmatically and try to vote for somebody who could be elected and beat joe biden? and two thirds majority say no, what matters to me is the purism of donald trump's -- what he's offering. the populism. i think that's where the iowa voters are at the moment. i love the history, steve. are we going to be '96 and see a bob dole style lead evaporate or more like 2000 and see george w. bush maintaining his lead? that's super interesting. does the polling throw in all those democrats who might be sitting on iowa caucus night, actually i'm bored. i miss the civic tradition of going to the caucuses. i'll go and vote for some republican i like and muddy the waters. have we seen any indication how

that might happen and how many democrats will turn out and vote in the republican caucuses? >> i don't have the graphic to show you here, but one thing we did look at is independents. we did ask about independents potentially deciding to participate in the caucuses. and that's actually where both trump and desantis did the worst is just very small share of the overall pie there. but, yeah, when you start broadening it out to independents, that -- again, it gets to the -- you find it more likely for voters to say they have concerns about trump and electability, trump and committing crimes. those sorts of things. so, again, it's interesting, too, you saw that briefly in the polling coming out of november midterm. seems like ancient history now. but there was all sorts of polling, some national, some state level in december of last year, january, february this year where trump's lead, again, national state level was not that massive. it's actually grown since

february or march of this year. really since those indictments began. remember the first indictment came in new york city in manhattan. that was the first of this wave. and if you had a trend line here i could show you, but trump's lead has just grown since that first indictment. so it was almost like there was a rally around trump effect that was kicked in there. yeah, you do wonder when you look at this historically, i remember that '96 one it was actually pat buchanan who came in second place there just three points behind bob dole. and then buchanan went on and won new hampshire a week later. again, that's the theory if any of these candidates running against trump is that iowa is the kind of state where retail politics still works. spend months doing events, 50, 100, 200 people. you can build support that way. if you can win iowa, you can roll it into the subsequent states. the question here again is look at how well liked desantis is, how well scott is to some degree, how well liked haley is.

can one of them consolidate support in the next few months that might get to what's at stake in the debate coming up this week. can one move up within striking distance of trump in iowa and really try to make it effectively a two-person race there because if that's the case, you can start to see in these numbers a scenario where it could get interesting. coming up, a live report from georgia where former president trump will be arrested any day now. nbc's ali vitali is live in fulton county and she joins us straight ahead on "morning joe." s straight ahead on "morning joe."

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♪♪ we are following severe weather in southern california,

where tropical storm hilary is pummelling the los angeles area. this is the los angeles metro area. the storm made landfall yesterday in mexico and quickly moved north to the united states. hilary is already smashing records for rainfall across california with some parts of the state reporting nearly three inches of rain yesterday. let's bring in meteorologist bill karins. bill, good to see you. but terrible circumstances. give us the latest. >> yeah, good morning. great to be back with the family here. but this storm, it did exactly what we were afraid of. the wind was not a huge ordeal. only 50,000 people without power. it's been all about the rain, the mud slides, the rock slides, the debris flows the burn scar areas. there's hundreds if not thousands of scenes like this. there are roads washed out. there are communities that are cut off. you can't drive in. the roads aren't going to exist anymore. these are mostly in the mountains to the north of l.a. and to the east of l.a.

and san diego for that matter, too. just -- it's going to be a mess. a lot of these pictures were taken right before sunset, the rain continued if not got worse after that. when the sun comes up today, we'll get a better idea of who was hit the hardest and who was hit the worst. the storm itself did cross over california's tropical storm. that's the only fourth time in modern history this has been recorded. so the storm is racing north wards now. so we're all done with it in southern california. only a little rainfall left. 11 inches in the mountains, some of the highest, san diego had 2 inches, l.a. 2.5 inches and typically never rains in l.a. the middle of the summer. winter is the rainy season. this is so unusual. everywhere in maroon, including downtown los angeles is all under flash flood warnings. by the way, even the palm springs area, they lost 911 call

capabilities during the overnight hours the middle of this horrific storm. you can imagine how scary that would have been. boise and areas to the north, as you know, we're not quite done yet with the storms in the mountains. that's where some of the highest gusts will be but not a power outages. we're towards the peak of hurricane season. we're expecting an active season. we have franklin, gert, emily in the atlantic. three storms formed this weekend and we have a tropical system heading towards texas likely as a tropical storm in about 48 hours. but no huge threats. no ians or anything like that, but we're expecting a very active next month and our thoughts obviously are with everyone in southern california. >> wow. all right. we'll be watching the los angeles area and beyond. bill karins, thank you very much for that report. good to see you. still ahead on "morning joe," the latest issue of "time" wants to know, does this ride ever end?

molly ball joins us with her new reporting on the republican race for president. that's next on "morning joe." 's. subway's now slicing their meats fresh. that's why subway's proffered by this champ. and this future champ. and if we proffer it, we know you'll proffer it too. he's cocky for a nineteen year old. (pensive music) (footsteps crunching) (pensive music) (birds tweeting) (pensive music) (broom sweeping) - [narrator] one in five children worldwide are faced with the reality of living without food. no family dinners, no special treats, no full bellies. all around the world, parents are struggling

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defending his record. and if i had his record, i would be nervous about showing up, too. let's face it, guys, by wednesday, he's going to be out on bail in four different

jurisdictions. really? when do we stop thinking that's normal? when do we allow our country to understand again that nominating someone who is out on bail in four jurisdictions is not a winning formula. so whether you believe in criminal prosecutions or you don't, two things, one, they're real. and something politically we have to deal with. two, his conduct is reprehensible. >> reaction from two of donald trump's gop primary competitors to him saying he will not participate in wednesday's republican primary debate. the former president made the announcement on truth social yesterday. citing the latest cbs poll which shows he is leading the gop race by a wide margin. while he won't be debating this week, he will be surrendering. trump has until friday to turn himself in to the fulton county jail in atlanta. in the latest indictment against him.

three senior law enforcement officials familiar with the plan say they do not expect the former president to appear before thursday, but plans are still being finalized. an attorney for trump did not immediately respond to a request for comment. let's bring in political reporter greg bluesteen. do we know anything about plans being made, like special plans that might make his surrender different than any other person that would surrender at the fulton county jail in georgia? >> yeah. we know the fulton county sheriff said he'll be treated like any other inmate and won't be put in with the general population. the yale is a notorious place so bad you wouldn't wish it on your worst enemies. three inmates died there in the last month. justice department investigation, civil rights investigations and humanitarian crisis, crumbling walls, inmates

are using pieces of the wall as shanks. this is not a place trump will spend significant time. he will be booked there and processed there and we expect a mug shot there. >> and a political conference, conservative political conference in atlanta on friday, georgia's republican governor, brian kemp, said that republicans who want to win next election need to understand it's time to move on. >> it's important for republicans to be confident in the process but also important for the democrats and anybody else to be important in the process. for people still out there complaining, look, you can believe whatever you want about the 2020 election. that is your right. i understand that. i have no problem with that. but the thing is, that was three years ago. and if you're still mad about that, quit complaining about that. sign up to be a poll worker, be a poll watcher. get involved in the process.

door knock. phone call. do something that will help us win in 2024. complaining is not going to help us win. >> oh my lord. charlie psychs a republican talking the way republicans used to talk, which is let's win. let's look forward. we need you to help us poll watching. we need to help us on the phone. we need to help you knocking on doors. like that was so rational and republican. >> didn't recognize it. >> it sounds almost quaint. >> well, look, georgia is ground zero of the trump effect, isn't it? they have lived through what happens when you allow donald trump's obsessions to take precedence. they lost two u.s. senate seats on the same day on january 5th and then they failed to get it back again in a state in which brian kemp wins easily for governor. look, they have seen this up close and personal. they have also experienced the

consequences of donald trump's lies. i do find it awfully interesting how different the georgia republican party is from say the arizona republican party. you know, which has been taken over the wing nuts. but brian kemp is basically saying, guys, we don't need to go down this particular path. so georgia is always going to be interesting to watch, particularly this week obviously when we see donald trump doing his perp walk. but by the way what a commentary on a modern political party where the fourth indictment of this guy, the fourth indictment, the fourth arraignment, will actually possibly boost his poll numbers. i mean, that says something about the party where character matters and the party of law & order, doesn't it? coming up, is it possible for kamala harris to make a second impression? eugene daniels just sat down with the vice president and he joins us straight ahead on "morning joe." ght ahead on "morning joe."

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on friday, joe biden hosted the prime minister of japan and the president of south korea at camp david. the leaders announced south korea, japan and the united states will hold trilateral meetings between top government and military officials at least annually. the three nations will work with each other to respond to regional challenges and will hold joint military exercises together each year. the nations will also share with each other missile warning data on north korea. >> let's bring in the former supreme allied commander of nato, retired four star navy general, james stavridis. thank you so much for being with us, admiral. katty kay has the first

question. katty? >> it's just amazing to see those images of the leader of south korea and japan together. you couldn't got them in the same room let alone a summit. i reckon that was true even five to ten years ago. so president biden says this is not about china. but it is about china to some extent, isn't? >> it is entirely about china. in a geopolitical sense. there is certainly enormous economic angles to putting this together. you're looking at the leaders of the third largest economy in the world after ours, the first that would be japan and roughly the ninth or tenth largest economy in the world. so this is an economic play alongside that military geopolitical one. you're right. it very much has to do with china. look, i operated for decades in the pacific. i would see japanese and south korean warships try and try to

do exercises together under a u.s. umbrella. never worked. never be the apple of each other's eyes. however, they can come together and work can come together and work productively. kudos to the biden administration. it's smart economics. >> you have the south koreans and the japanese worried about china's saber rattling vis-a-vis taiwan. you have north korea launching missiles against japan. and here you have joe biden convening this new alliance, if you want to call it that. how much does it put america back in the center of action in that region of the world? >> very, very significant. i will put a particular here, which is, we have an excellent

quad alliance, if you will, between the united states, japan, australia and india. that's the quad, four nations that work together, share intelligence, operate in the indian ocean and the western pacific. how about we make that a quint and bring south korea into that mix? when you put it alongside u.s. submarine nuclear technology going to australia, a new relationship in the philippines, which have been under a lot of stress under previous president duterte. now with a new president we are accessing those spaces. all of that fits together, not in circling or containing china. that's not the idea. the idea is to deter china from adventurism, claiming big chunks of the south china sea, pushing

its neighbors around. i think, again, the u.s. is in a very significant geopolitical position. coming up, we go live to southern california where tropical storm hilary drenched the region with fierce winds and rainfall. h fierce winds and rainfall

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being middle class right now, it's tough making ends meet for sure. republicans in congress say if we just cut taxes even more for the biggest corporations the money will eventually someday trickle trickle down to you. right. joe biden would rather just stop those corporations from charging so damn much. capping the cost of drugs like insulin. cracking down on surprise medical bills and all those crazy junk fees. there's more work to do. tell the president to keep lowering costs for middle class families. ♪ ♪ ♪♪ voltaren. the joy of movement. ♪♪

. in the aftermath of george floyd's murder in 2020, many companies put in place diversity, equity and inclusion leaders to address certain inek inequities in the workplace. now the personnel are leaving their jobs twice as fast as people in non-dei roles. with us is daniella

pierre-bravo. >> it could show there's a deprioritization in the efforts. dei has been able to have meaningful conversations around race, inclusion and diversity. reports show that in the last five years, dei efforts have helped women of all different levels move up the pipeline. not only does it allow for career advancement opportunities, it holds leaders accountable. with dei efforts being declined and deprioritized, it really is putting the burden back on women of color. i've heard so many frustrations who have done dei efforts and

are not compensated or acknowledged for it. that's really what a dei department does. deprioritizing it really puts the burden back on women. >> you share your experience about growing up as an undocumented immigrant and trying to navigate the workforce as a young adult. you also speak to young women of color, who like yourself have felt like outsiders at work. >> it exacerbates the feeling of invisibility that many women of color feel in the workplace. in the book i turn it in a way that we talk about it which is the part you can control. even times it can bring tremendous value into whatever workplace you're at. it's all about understanding that unique perspective and different way of growing up can

bring value and it's about taking that and using it as a tool of power in the workplace. >> you also talked about people of color often feeling like they have to operate in survival mode in the workplace. you write, we're used to being reactive because it gives us a better sense of how to navigate the world safely. because we've been doing it for so long, it's not necessarily something we're aware of until we get to the point of feeling stuck, unhappy and frustrated. other people's energy and reactions, particularly in a professional setting, can also easily have the power to derail us. we can become discouraged and train ourselves to quiet our voices, feeling helpless to make a difference. how and why does this fight or flight effect impact women at work, especially women of color?

>> survival mode is how we handle threats to our environment. for women of color, that means protecting their psychological safety. if these communities of collar have been made to feel less than, it's counterintuitive to turn off that fight or flight mode. they have a micro aggression sent toward them and they do everything to make the person who made that comment feel comfortable. they'll laugh it off instead of in the moment taking a step back and saying this isn't okay and responding in realtime. it also affects the way we work, saying yes to everything, overworking, feeling like if we slow down, the opportunities will all go away. so the book really focuses on shifting the relationship we have with survival mode and

understanding taking a step back and understanding how to strategize your career and not being so reactive and getting into that loop is what the book focuses on. >> i love it. her book "the other" comes out in paper back tomorrow. she also cowrote "earn it" with me for our know your value series. i look forward to working with you on some new projects. great job. thanks for being here. it's the top of our fourth hour, 6:00 a.m. on the west coast, 9:00 a.m. in the east. willie is going to be back tomorrow. where has willie been? >> he's on assignment. >> uh-huh. i don't think so. that's like when you say you're on assignment, joe. millions of people across california are dealing with the

fallout from tropical storm hilary. this is the first tropical storm to hit california in 84 years. it brought record levels of rainfall to some areas of the state yesterday. in addition to the storm, southern california experienced a 5.1 magnitude earthquake yesterday. joining us from san diego, california, guad venegas. >> reporter: good morning. it is a chiy morning in the low 60s. the storm has passed southern california. authorities and residents had a few days to prepare, especially for those living in the most vulnerable, low areas. we had never had a tropical

storm. the state and local authorities here in san diego and other parts of southern california prepared the best way possible. residents used sandbags to protect their properties in some of these areas that they knew flood. we did see rain yesterday and overnight. there is some flooding reported. we have a freeway that connects the san diego area to the desert area had a boulder come down from a mountain and obstruct the road. of course, the roadways are full of branches and other debris that came in with the storm. the storm made landfall south of san diego in north mexico and then moved inland. fortunately for these large urban areas, the storm did go toward the mountains east of san diego and los angeles where they

got the higher winds and most of the rai and making its way to some of the rivers. fortunately, we have not reported major damage other than the flooding. then we had the earthquake north of ventura northwest of los angeles in ojai. as of now, there are no reports of major damages or injuries. a lot of people, of course, were shaken up by this earthquake as they were waiting out the storm. that storm moved north out of southern california. as the sun is coming up today, we are starting to see what could have been damaged by the wind and the floods that affected the region. >> thank you very much for your reporting this morning. president biden is set to visit maui later today as the death toll from last week's wildfires there has reached 114

people with more than 800 people still missing. many maui residents are questioning if the federal government moved at a quick enough pace to assist them. the president has also faced criticism for his response to the wildfires after he wouldn't speak to reporters as the destruction raged and did not say anything of substance for five days. biden is set to survey the destruction and meet with survivors and relief workers. we're going to turn to politics now. donald trump says he will not participate in wednesday's republican primary debate. he made the announcement on truth social yesterday, citing the latest poll which shows he's leading by a wide margin. kristen welker has the latest. >> reporter: he may be skipping this week's gop debate, but in iowa this morning our new poll of likely republican

caucus-goers shows former president trump with a commanding lead over the gop field, more than 20 points ahead of his closest rival, florida governor ron desantis, 42-19%. while mr. trump is facing four criminal indictments, nearly two-thirds of likely caucusgoers don't believe he committed a serious crime. >> i think it's way blown out of proportion, the whole thing, in my opinion. >> i felt like he was making a mockery of the office for his own enrichment. i did not appreciate it. >> reporter: still with five months until the caucuses, a majority of respondents say they haven't made up their mind. trump says he's not only passing up wednesday's debate, but may skip the next one too. he's expected to turn himself in fulton county, georgia this

week. he has denied any wrongdoing. still, his rivals are sure to face questions about his legal troubles in the debate, including north dakota governor doug bergam. republican senator bill cassidy asked if the former president should drop out of the race. >> i think so, but he will lose to joe biden. >> reporter: florida governor ron desantis is facing backlash from the trump campaign for his comments in a recent interview apparently criticizing some trump supporters. >> if all we are is listless vessels that are supposed to follow whatever happens to come down the pike on truth social every morning, that's not going to be a durable moment. >> desantis's press secretary said the governor's comment was aimed at trump and his congressional allies.

>> i saw some explaining on that over the weekend on the kasie hunt show. it's all these distinctions without a difference. ron desantis was going after trump supporters. it's very clear. go after trump supporters and then back off. oh no, it's something else. no. again, it's all distinctions without a difference. calling them empty vessels or weak vessels or whatever, again, much ado about nothing. >> joining us now national correspondent for "time" molly ball. her new piece is called "does this ride ever end"? >> what a great question. how does the story end, molly?

>> can you see the future? i personally have not acquired psychic powers. all i can do is report. i spent a lot of time in iowa reporting on the race. i think obviously trump is way ahead, obviously he has an enormous lead. the new iowa poll out this morning shows that yet again. on the other hand, it's sort of a glass half empty/glass half full thing for non-trump candidates. yes, trump has 42% of the iowa electorate. that means there's 58% of iowa republican voters who are still looking around, potentially more than that. in all these polls, there's some percentage of even trump supporters who say they're open to another candidate. that's why candidates are spending so much time in iowa looking for a place where his

support might be a little bit softer than nationally and hoping they can get a chance there. >> so many in the media are obsessing over the people who are with trump until the bitter end, whoever the die-hards are. i think also telling in a lot of these polls in questioning whether this ride ends eventually, does the number of never-trumpers in the republican party seem to be growing bit by bit? maybe it's around 25% or so. again, that's not enough to stop him in a primary, but 1 out of 4 voters saying they'll never vote for a guy who may win the party's nomination, that would be devastating. >> it's such a good point. what you also see is that no one

candidate has managed to claim that block of the party. you don't see that 25% of the party that consists of voters who don't like trump very actively, you don't see them all getting behind one alternative. they clearly have not gotten behind ron desantis, who was hoping they could be the base of his campaign, i think. you don't see them getting behind one of the more overtly anti-trump candidates like christie or hutchinson. i quote new hampshire governor chris sununu talking about wanting to topple trump. they're saying we've got to make this a one on one, trump versus one other guy, because that's the only way one candidate is going to consolidate enough of the party to be the frontrunner. >> one thing that's interesting

about your article is it is almost seeming like we are talking about the personality of donald trump and his being able to build this kind of following around his persona and the others that are running against him not being able to out-personality him and they've really not been able to make this a policy debate. if we look at recent history, the republicans stood for this, the democrats stood for that. they've not been able to make that argument that we stand for this as opposed to what biden stands for. they're reacting to the personality of donald trump. do you see anyone who can break out of this and raise the debate to it's us against them in terms of the democrats, how we want to see the country conduct policy, legislation and conduct the country? >> it's such a good point.

you look at a candidate like ron desantis, who i think policy is his love language. he would prefer to talk about that over absolutely anything. my article opens with one of many anecdotes on the trail where a voter is demanding some kind of emotion from ron desantis, some kind of personality. voters in a primary, of course they care about policy, but the candidates are much more defined by personality. they keep asking desantis to show them a little bit of personality and be a little bit human. he's just not able to do it. when they compare that to the personality of a donald trump -- and the other thing i have learned from my reporting on the ground is that a lot of republican voters view trump as a sort of incumbent. he has a stature that the other candidates cannot match. i think that's a big reason they

found it difficult to get traction against him. >> molly ball, thank you so much. her new cover story for "time" is out today. as we discussed, donald trump is expected to turn himself in later this week to authorities in fulton county, georgia. ali vitale is live from outside the fulton county jail in atlanta with the latest. >> reporter: mika, we're still playing the waiting game down here in fulton county as we know the former president is supposed to turn himself in by that friday deadline. our sources in law enforcement tell us that at this point it's not likely he'll turn himself in by thursday . that leaves him just enough time to do counter programming for that first republican debate. you heard kristen doing reporting from iowa voters which show they are still squarely behind the former president. now we're hearing from the former president himself that

he's going to skip the debates and from one of his close advisors who says this is applicable to just this debate and the next debate, trump leaving room to reverse course. he voiced in the past he didn't think there was political upside to him appearing on that debate stage. to the extent the normal rules of political gravity apply anymore, he's right in that all targets will be pointed at him. in my conversations with his rivals, people like nikki haley say he should be on that stage and that the downside is that when other people attack his record, he wouldn't be able to fight back against that. it looks like in polls though, voters don't even need to hear that defense. the fact that the majority don't think the indictments show any sign of deep criminal wrongdoing, they say this is an example of a politicized

department of justice echoing conservative talking points that aren't based in reality. all of that shows trump probably doesn't need to be on that stage, but it is an opportunity for everybody else. you're watching the ways the early contours of who might go after who are starting to take shape. people like nikki haley are preparing to go after others in the field like vivek ramaswamy on foreign policy, showing her deep credentials in that space. we're going to watch tim scott struggle about what he would do if he were president. would he make a phone call like the one trump made to the georgia secretary of state? i know you and joe talked about that exchange extensively last week. this primary race is so strange because everyone is jockeying for second when the guy in first is so far out in front. yet, here we are standing

outside a jailhouse waiting for him to surrender. >> ali vitale, thank you. former white house chief of staff mark meadows, who was named as a codefendant in last week's georgia indictment, is now asking for the charges against him to be dismissed. in a court filing, an attorney for meadows claims presidential immunity should shield him from charges that accuse him of taking part in a criminal enterprise meant to illegally change the 2020 election results. he's also charged in connection with an infamous phone call to georgia secretary of state where trump asked the official to, quote, find the exact number of votes needed to overturn his loss there. last week, meadows asked for his case to be moved from superior court to federal court. a hearing on that matter is expected this week.

now he wants them dismissed. meanwhile in the separate documents case against donald trump, mark meadows has reportedly told investigators he was, quote, unaware and had no knowledge of donald trump either talking about or declassifying considerable information that he took from the white house. that would contradict trump's biggest defense in the mar-a-lago classified documents case. meadows' account also seems to be backed up by former vice president pence despite trump's insistence that he declassified all the materials before leaving office. pence seems to disagree. >> i was never made away of any broad-based effort to declassify documents. there is a process that the white house goes through to declassify materials. i'm aware of that occurring on several occasions over the course of our four years.

but i don't have any knowledge of any broad-based directive from the president. that doesn't mean it didn't occur. it's just not something that i ever heard about. >> mark meadows also reportedly told investigators he was not involved in packing boxes, did not witness trump or anyone else doing so and claimed he was unaware trump took any government records with him. abc news also reviewed an early draft of the prolong of meadows' book "the chief's chief" about his final months in the white house. the book includes a description of trump having a classified war plan at his office in bedminster, new jersey, when he was meeting with meadows. his ghost writer and publicist, but not meadows himself, which reads, quote, on the couch in front of the president's desk, there is a four-page report typed up by mark milley himself. it shows the general's own plan

to attack iran. ultimately the passage did not appear in the book. meadows reportedly told investigators he asked the paragraph be changed and that it would be problematic if trump possessed such a document. in a statement, the trump campaign accused the justice department of selectively leaking incomplete information that lacks proper context. >> we can give them more proper context. not only did mark meadows say that the president didn't declassify the documents and not only did mike pence say the president didn't properly declassify documents, but trump himself on tape said, i did not declassify these documents. now, if i were president, he

says on tape, i could have declassified it, but i didn't declassify it then, so i can't declassify it now and i probably shouldn't even be showing you. >> he says it himself. it is on tape. he said in the georgia case when he asked the secretary of state of georgia to find him 11,780 votes and he went onto say you can say or something, you know, say you did a recount. in every case, he convicts himself. it's hard to argue against what you say and that has been recorded and the charges match what you say. i've said before and i'll say it again, a fish wouldn't get caught if he kept his mouth shut. he's on the hook, joe. >> he is on the hook. he's on the hook, again, by his own words. coming up on "morning joe,"

new reporting on the rise of america's fastest-growing demographic of a powerful voting bloc ahead of the 2024 election. plus, republican senator bill cassidy says he thinks donald trump should drop out of the race. ld drop out of the race

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. there's 91 charges, i think. i think the charge that seems almost a slam dunk is the one related to the mishandling of classified documents. but there's at least one, which is the mishandling of the federal governments, which seems, again, a very strong case. they have a tape recording of him speaking of it. if that is proven, we may have a candidate for president who has

been convicted of a crime. i think joe biden needs to be replaced, but i don't think americans will vote for someone who's been convicted. >> do you think donald trump should drop out of the race? >> i think so. but obviously that's up to him. i mean, you're just asking my opinion, but he will lose to joe biden if you look at the current polls. i'm a republican. i think any republican on that stage in milwaukee will do a better job than joe biden. >> republican senator bill cassidy of louisiana yesterday saying donald trump should drop out of the presidential race because of the criminal charges he faces, specifically the documents case. as we approach the fall and the one-year mark to the 2024 election, new reporting from nbc news is highlighting the efforts of both parties to court what is now the fastest-growing demographic in the united states, asian-americans. with the dnc saying it's already

spent six figures on ads targeting the demographic. and the rnc is opening community centers in california and around the nation designed to turn out the vote. joining us now with more on the story, nbc news reporter sahil kapur. what can you tell us? >> not only are they america's fastest-growing demographic, asian-americans are also the fastest-growing share of the electorate. they provided crucial votes for president biden in swing states. in 2020, 72% of asian-americans voted for biden. 28% voted for former president trump. turnout spiked from 49% to 59% in battleground states that decided the election. they were up by more than 300,000 votes where biden's margin of victory came down to

about 40,000 votes in three states. without asian americans, donald trump would probably still be president. the dnc has spent six figures on ads, one in may that was translated to seven different languages. here's what ro khanna told me. the asian american vote will likely be decisive in battleground states which are decided by such a small margin. he said democrats must speak to the aspirations of the community and focus on education and pathways to good-paying jobs. republicans are losing asian americans, but they know they can't ignore this group either. the rnc tells me there is a multimillion dollar investment to open community centers across the country, like the one in california's orange county, where they've had some success in courting aapi voters.

quote, that is a community that ought to be voting republican. i just think our party has not done a good job of communicating with them. overall, asian americans prefer democrats by about 2-1. they have a big footprint in key swing states like georgia and nevada. this is a demographic we're going to be hearing about for a long time to come. >> we've heard through the years of groups being inclined to vote a certain way. many people of color inclined more traditionally to vote democratic than republican. there is exceptions to that. george w. bush did extremely well in 2004 with hispanic

americans. if you look at the trend line through the years, asian americans have always been more likely to vote republican in the past, right? is there a trend away from republicans over the past eight years? >> there certainly has been. there was data in the '90s that asian americans did prefer republicans, but the numbers were too small to significantly influence elections. latinos in 2004, that was kind of the big year where everyone realized this is a massively important demographic. a lot of people might look back on 2020 and look at that as the 2004 equivalent for asian americans where they became this powerful group that neither party could ignore. republicans need to cut into that advantage. the margins there could be everything going forward. republicans have tried to use social issues, cultural issues,

things like affirmative action and wokeness courting asian american groups. they've had some success courting vietnamese americans. the message is on immigration, the working class achieving the american dream. there's a gut feeling asian americans have right now that democrats are more aligned with them. >> what about the rise in hate crimes against asian americans and the statements that the president made and other republicans made, the president going around calling it the china flu, at one point calling it the kung flu and saying other things that asian american leaders -- he was being

outwardly bigoted toward his own secretary elaine chchao. what are you hearing? >> the rise of trump was undoubtedly a factor, according to experts and democratic aapi leaders. one of them described it as jet fuel for the turnout of this community. it was a primal feeling that they were being attacked by the president. it ended up propelling turnout in a major way. in places like georgia in 2020, that had an impact on the presidential election. but then in 2022 the turnout held. 2020 was not a fluke. one person who took note was raphael warnock. he cut ads toward the end of that competitive race against herschel walker in multiple

different languages trying to turn out these voters. there's a lot of talk about the georgia suburbs as well. a lot of voters in those suburbs are aapi voters. one of the unique things about aapi voters, overall a small share of the electorate, but uniquely powerful in swing states. it looks like trump is going to be on the ballot again. there's not a lot he or his party have done to try and win back those voters that he alienated with that kind of inflammatory rhetoric. >> you know, mika, i was born and raised for the first five or six years of my life in doraville, georgia. it was the suburbs of atlanta. when i went back in the '90s, there were so many signs as you drove through the doraville

area, you saw a lot of asian americans and asian american businesses. sahil's point that georgia is a really critical place in the battle for this extraordinarily important demographic really rings true to me. >> amazing as we're watching the legal part of this play out in georgia as well. >> reverend al, there are costs whenever donald trump says racist things about elaine chao or his own secretary of treasury. >> there should be. >> he thinks he's so funny. it's bigotry, it's racism. you see asian americans getting beaten up on streets of different cities. you see him blaming china, you know, talking about the china

flu, which of course that's obviously where it comes from, but during the pandemic there was the attempt to almost scapegoat all asians. you saw the acts of violence going up. donald trump even talking about the kung flu, thinking again he's being funny at rallies, whether it's attacking asian americans in general or attacking elaine chao specifically, there are consequences to those actions for good reason. >> for good reason. and when you are scapegoating people and stereotyping people, they should respond politically. i think also the challenges on the other side of those that have been opposed to trump should coalesce and bring those together.

i remember there was a couple of incidents in new york where blacks had attacked asians. i went to the asian american rallies and stood with them, as did some other blacks in elected office, because you have to stand up against it. it's not enough to just say trump is wrong. you've got to fight that. the march we're having saturday in washington, asian american leaders are going to speak on the platform. i think it gives an opportunity for those who want to fight hate to come together when you have somebody like donald trump that clearly has mainstreamed some of his bigotry. but if you just leave it out there without building and saying that it's all of us that have to stand even if it is not our particular tribe that may be the target of a particular barb or incident, if we don't expand it, then we're no better than the people that are taking the shots and bigotry at us. coming up, the ron desantis campaign is laying out a preview

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a scary scene in an nfl preseason game over the weekend turning focus back on player safety. sam brock has the details. >> reporter: a game between the packers and patriots quickly elevated to something much more serious. >> immediately calling for the medical team. >> reporter: isaiah bolden collided with a teammate, ending up motionless on the field for minutes. >> players taking a knee.

>> reporter: players praying with bolden ultimately carried off on a stretcher. >> i appreciate the way the league handled it. i think that was the right thing to do. >> it's a scary situation. >> reporter: in a boost to patriots' fans, the team writing after undergoing evaluations and being held for overnight observation, isaiah bolden has been released from a green bay hospital. he said, appreciate the prayers, more excited to be back with the guys. it follows another weekend scare with buccaneer's quarterback who suffered a head injury and needed to be stretchered off the field. the incident coming seven months after bills' safety damar hamlin experienced cardiac arrest during a nationally televised

game only to make his return a week ago. >> it was a moment of serendipity, life coming full circle for me. >> reporter: players who watched boldin's scare, certainly felt flashbacks. >> that dharma feeling of that's just scary. it's just praying for him that he's okay. >> reporter: the nfl continues to update rules to protect players from tightening concussion protocols to reducing violent collisions on kickoffs. this morning, the league is grateful that boldin will return to full health. >> sam brock with that report. coming up, new reporting on vice president kamala harris. as the 2024 race heats up, can she make a good second impression on voters, or should she drag down the democratic ticket? eugene daniels sat down with the vice president and he joins us next with answers on "morning joe." s on "morning joe.

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. beautiful shot from indian wells, california. >> so pretty. >> the state endured so much over the weekend. >> absolutely. >> earthquakes, floods, its first tropical storm in a lifetime. just an absolutely beautiful sunrise this morning. the campaign for florida governor ron desantis is previewing his strategy to donors and supporters ahead of the debate this week, according to a memo obtained by nbc news, which argues the gop primary is a two-man race between desantis and donald trump. the governor's team expects him to be at the center of attacks and is fully prepared to be on the receiving end of what they say will be false charges from

other candidates. the memo notably coms after the desantis aligned pac urged desantis to defend trump from chris christie's attacks. desantis responded to the pac's memo for the first time publicly on friday he has not personally read the document. >> you guys can deal with it. i didn't do it. i didn't read it. it's not going to influence what i do. we're going to go and speak the truth. we're looking forward to getting the job done. let's bring in special correspondent at "vanity fair," host of the fast politics podcast molly jhung fast, and white house correspondent for politico and co-author of "the playbook" eugene daniels. he has an exclusive interview with president harris. we'll get to that in just a moment. >> molly, what's a republican debate in 2023 without donald trump? >> that's going to be weird. >> well, this is their

opportunity if they do it, which i don't think they will, to try to eke out a post trump future. we've seen these candidates be sort of vaguely trump adjacent except for desantis who has been to the right of trump. there is an opportunity. if there were a really strong candidate here, that person could make a name for themselves and take up this oxygen that's been left by trump. i don't know that there really is a strong candidate in this field. >> you look at the iowa polls, you look at what ann seltzer on nbc have done, and it seems two things are happening at the same time. donald trump is solidifying his support with the republican base and going further ahead. even more republicans supporting him after the indictment than before. that said, the never trumpers inside the democratic party moving from 20 to 21, to 23, to

25%. molly, it doesn't matter what year we're in. it doesn't matter what race we're in. it doesn't matter what party we're in. if one of four voters say they're not going to vote for the nominee, isn't that really bad news for republicans? >> you would think, right? they're making that same mistake they made in 2015. they split the field. if they got behind one candidate the way democrats did with joe biden, they'd have one candidate. so maybe you'd have tim scott and maybe he wouldn't be beating trump, but he would be a viable alternative. instead you have desantis running to the right of trump. he's trump without the charisma, and you have basically a field of other people polling at single digits. >> meanwhile vice president kamala harris is reportedly trying to reshape her public image ahead of the 2024 election. eugene, you sat down for an

exclusive interview with the vice president writing in part, this, harris' term has largely been marked by stilted performances at public events, at odds with the uninhibited interrogaor she was known as in the senate. they've fueled whispers about whether she'll be a drag on the election ticket as the 2024 race heats up. now her political future and quite possibly the success of the democratic ticket in 2024 hinges on a simple question. is it possible for kamala harris to make a second impression? what did you find out, you jean? what does she say to this criticism? >> i think so much of this on that first question is even her closest allies will agree that there's been at the very least a gulf between the behind the scenes kamala harris, this kamala harris that was a senator and was ascendant in the

democratic party, seemed like the future of the democratic party and kind of the narrative that's been around d.c. since she's been vice president. they also point out that the last eight months felt different to them, that she has emerged in a different way. a lot of that has to do with the fact that she's finally getting a portfolio that they say is in her strengths, you know, talking about abortion, gun safety, climate change, those kinds of things. she's fully more confident in the role after 2 and a half-plus years in it. one person told me that injustice is what fuels her. to these criticisms, she's obviously aware of these criticisms when i brought some of these things up. one, all of the naysayers or the folks that have said things about her over the last couple years. xi kind of smirked because she knew exactly where i was going. what she said is she's not going to get distracted. i knew that was coming. i talked to some of her close

allies, and that's what she tells them, that black women and especially women of color in political life have to do, is to ignore these things and move forward and just hope that the work speaks for itself at some point. >> eugene, al sharpton. one of the things you just said struck me, because week before last i had a long interview with the vice president for my show. for the first time i'll show the whole interview on this coming saturday's show after the march. she talked about how her mother marched in '63 against racism and she grew up an activist. none of that was coming out a lot until the last few months, the fighter in her. i think a lot of what people don't realize is the misogyny as well as the racism she suffered from. i saw it as a kid when i was youth director for shirley chisholm's campaign. how much of this do you think is

her reemerging, and how much of it is she's had to break through misogyny, even among black male leaders and elected officials that are questioning her when we never questioned other vice presidents? how much of it is a different standard for her that she's now said, look, forget the teleprompter, i'm going to be who i am, and people are starting to see that she is a fighter and represents something? >> i think both of those things are true. she even spoke to this and talked about the level of scrutiny. mike pence didn't have reporters following him specifically tied to him as vice president and the things he did every single day. there just wasn't that level of interest. she says she's not knew to this, that's kind of the way she's lived her entire life. it's also true that, yes, she does feel different on the campaign trail. i've covered her this entire time. her on a stage talking about abortion with no notes or no teleprompter, walking around for

20 minutes at howard a few months ago, that feels different to both me and the folks that cover her, and also the folks that are allies of her and have been expecting and hoping that the narrative around her would change. >> molly, mika and i have always told people privately when they ask us about kamala harris, yeah, we've known her for a while. we've had lunch with her, dinner with her, spent time with her through the years as a senator. we say she's great, she's relaxed -- >> amazing. >> we did say the first year or so, there's a big gulf between the kamala harris you see privately and the kamala harris you see publicly as vice president, not as senator. >> except on abortion. >> i'm curious, do you agree with you jean that you're starting to see her get comfortable in the role as vice president? >> i think what the rev said is so important.

there's so much racism and so much misogyny -- remember, this is the highest a black woman has ever gotten in our country ever, ever. every day knives are out for her, even people who think that they are her supporters are not. i do think the lens in which she is seen is so hard, and the way she's reported on is so different than men or even white women. i think she's had to smash so many glass ceilings, that it's very touch to see her for who she is. i think even people who mean well, it's very hard and she's had a very tough time. i think she's done incredibly well despite that. she's very smart. and i think on abortion she's been really an incredible public speaker. >> incredible voice. special correspondent at "vanity fair," molly jung fast, and

eugene daniels, thank you as well. you can read more of eugene's exclusive interview with vice president kamala harris at politico.com. >> reverend al, as we wrap up here today, i've got to say your march this weekend commemorating the 60th anniversary of the march on washington, never more relevant, and certainly kamala harris playing a big role anywhere we are right now politically. >> no question about it. the march of '63 helped make a kamala harris possible. now she's trying to show, as well as others, that we didn't get here just to be a showpiece. we got here to get some things done. >> that does it for us this morning. ana cabrera picks up the coverage right now. right now on "ana cabrera reports," a collision of weather emergencies. in california, intense mudslides and flooding in the wake of tropical storm hilary. officials calling this a

once-in-a-lifetime storm. an earthquake also striking the region at the same time. in moments i'll talk with the mayor of palm springs about how her city is holding up. in the state of washington, a state of emergency as raging wildfires burn thousands of acres and destroy hundreds of structures, just as president biden is set to visit fire-devastated hawaii today with more than 800 people still missing. homeland security secretary alejandro mayorkas will join us straight ahead. it's a big week for the former president. donald trump has until friday to surrender to authorities in georgia. polls showing he's still dominating the republican field. . ♪♪ so glad to be with you. it's 10:00 eastern. i'm ana cabrera reporting from new york.

this morning,