deliver on some of those promises that president biden made in addition to the promises he's already delivered on. >> there is still work to be done. editor at large for the non-profit newsroom the 19th and an msnbc contributor, errin hanes, thank you. thank you for getting up "way too early" on this tuesday morning. "morning joe" starts right now. $200,000 bond today, everything that georgia has done so far, i'm really glad to see it because they're signaling that georgia is not going to give donald trump any special treatment. >> the fate of donald trump is in his hands. if he continues to make choices now that he is out on bail in four criminal cases, it is incumbent on the prosecutors and the judge to take action. >> in two days, donald trump says he will surrender to authorities in georgia, as he is

now set to pay a $200,000 bond. we're going to discuss the harsh terms included in trump's agreement, the warning from the judge, and the former trump attorney set to surrender today. >> i've got to say, also, i mean, you look at the stories and look at the details of the bond payments, and as "the new york times" said yesterday, there are questions. some of these people, like rudy giuliani, maybe he'll be able to pay it. >> trump promised to pay his. >> jenna ellis, others complaining about not having the money for this case. >> they expected donald trump to pay. >> they expected a lot of things. i think they thought, eh, again, we've been talking about this a good bit the past several months, i mean, they -- we have willie here. >> willie is back. >> here i am. >> you look so nice, willie. on your instagram, you were a little scruffy. >> yeah, i shaved. i was on vacation. you don't shave on vacation, do you, joe? >> i kind of liked it.

>> christina said i couldn't have it on tv. >> oh, willie. come on. >> christina. >> you know, the thing is, the thing is, mika, willie and i didn't want to tell you this. >> yeah? >> uh-oh. >> we've been doing some work together this year. you know, documentary filmmakers have been asking us for quite some time to recount what happened to us, actually, in the '70s. we talk about it a lot. we found a kazakhstani production company wanting us to do, "return to istanbul." willie and i have been going there alternating. >> sorry i brought it up. >> we were in istanbul. >> okay. you were talking to willie about trump. go ahead. >> we were reenacting scenes from our capture and imprisonments, refusal to leave, actually, until others were released. we were brave that day. it wasn't easy, but we were there in istanbul for how long, joe, year, year and a half? >> yeah. i mean, i don't like to think

about it. >> be strong. >> i don't like to think about it, but it was the early '70s. you know, i think we can get past it. anyway -- >> thank you. >> -- let's talk about now. >> why not? >> prison now. >> that's our job. >> there you go. good segue. >> so many people did so many things. i talk about the info wars guy who said, "oh, i can lie about sandy hook." no. $1 billion. a lot of lies about election machines. they thought they could lie to pump up ratings. $1 billion later, they can't lie. it goes on and on. here, people like jenna ellis and others thought, " 'i'm going to try to steal an election." rudy giuliani, "maybe i'll get another five minutes of fame." suddenly, they're finding stuff, i'll just say, got real. there are consequences to trying to steal an election.

there are consequences, and i'll be more specific, oh, first amendment rights? no. they were part of a conspiracy to create fraudulent electors to replace legitimate electors who represented tens of millions of voters as the constitution said they would. they just thought, why not? we'll just go along for the ride with donald trump. what we're finding now, just like the january 6th people who went in and said, "yeah, hey, just because i think it's right and because donald trump tells me it's right, i can beat the hell out of cops." no, you can't, which reminds me about the story we'll talk about today. sheriffs who say, "oh, we don't have to enforce laws." i mean, i'm getting bored at this point. people thinking they can decide what the law is. don't work that way in america,

willie. there are consequences to these actions. gravity returns, and the price is high. >> and the bill is coming due right now. all the way up the chain. >> bill coming due. >> all the way to donald trump. you mentioned rudy giuliani, joe. rudy giuliani is a guy who has done for the last several years whatever donald trump told him to do. first while he was in the white house, then, at the end, when he was going around the country and sweating through his hair dye to try to overturn elections state by state. he now, according to many reports and "new york times" we see there, saying, "donald trump, i can't afford these legal bills. can you help me out?" he is finding out something he should have been known, that others have learned, loyalty with donald trump is a one-way street. donald trump won't pay his bills, will not even get back to him. donald trump is not even paying his own legal bills. $21 million out of the pockets of supporters of his, saying, "i went out and committed all these

alleged crimes, and i'm a billionaire," at least i say i am," but i need you small donor supporters to pay my bills." he won't share the money with rudy giuliani, who he says is his closest friend, closest adviser. giuliani getting the cold shoulder from donald trump. >> "the new york post," the paper of record for "morning joe," mika, do you have it with you right now? >> i do. it's a little off topic. off this topic anyway. >> oh, good. what is it? >> we have the border wall over here. >> hold on a second. t.j., sweet jesus. >> you know. >> floodgates are open, literally. >> something about the knicks. they're completely started to ignore the yankees, joe, which i don't want to get into. i've been gone a little while, and we're 17 games out of first place. there's your update on "the post." >> please, don't pretend i'm stupid that i don't know what

you're doing. oh, we're in last place. guess what? so was secretariat, you know, at the kentucky derby. >> this is part of the plan. >> yeah. >> it's part of the plan. >> oh. >> the yankees didn't lose about those -- last night. they're going to win the wild card, the 28th world series, and they're going to break our hearts. nobody will talk in boston about bucky dent anymore. they'll talk about the miracle of '23, the new york yankees winning it all. >> they didn't lose last night because they didn't play. i appreciate you pointing that out. >> still. >> they are 9 1/2 games out of the wild card. absolutely reeling. it's sad. i know you're very sad about it, joe. >> yeah. >> well, all i can say is i'm glad lemire is not here because he'd jinx the whole thing and talkincessantly. along with joe, willie and me, as you can see, we have

special correspondent bbc's katty kay, doing "way too early." and "the washington post"'s eugene robinson. >> don't want to talk about nationals. >> we don't. >> and we'll get too barbara mcquaid. >> i have to say, katty did a terrific job on the sports this morning. >> yes! >> it was absolutely spot on. it was perfect. baseball, she did baseball. >> katty is perfect. >> it was great. >> okay. when we were off camera yesterday, gene, i confessed to joe that when i'm reading the baseball, it may as well be german. i do not speak german. i mean, i really try and -- i have to focus so hard. it's the hardest segment of the whole show. because, honestly, if you don't know those words, you have no idea. what does that mean? i don't know what that means. anyway -- >> i get it. >> -- i apologize to the viewers.

>> no, you did good. you did so good. we love having you. >> katty, feel my pain. >> katty is perfection. >> that is how i feel for four hours a day. >> no. >> what does this mean? >> it'll be better than the midnight express reference at the top of the show, of willie and joe in some jail in istanbul for a year and a half. >> whatever. >> let me -- >> eight minutes past the hour. >> well, it was -- it was closer to two years, but willie and i aren't counting. it was a long time ago. >> we're going to get to ken dilanian and barbara mcquaid if they haven't walked off the set in a moment on trump's thursday surrender. >> good. first, a number that stood out to us from the new nbc news des moines register and media poll. in the survey, 41% of likely caucus goers say they would want donald trump to continue as the leader of the gop. an even larger number, 57%, say it's time for the republican

party to find new leadership. >> okay. you know, willie, that's about 6 out of 10 according to my university of alabama bachelor of arts history major degree. >> what's that mean? >> 6 out of 10 republicans in the iowa caucus, that are likely caucus goers are saying, "it's time to move on. time to find somebody new." yesterday, we saw a clip from a focus group out in iowa, and there was a lady who basically was afraid to come on the air and admit that she was moving away from donald trump. she wanted the republicans to win. she was grateful for president trump and all he did. but it was time to move away. she had said that she was afraid to come on the show -- afraid to talk to the reporter, but she had to do it. because people needed to know that she was going to do it.

for the first time, it hit me. mika and i have sort of seen this in our own life with our own friends who supported donald trump. it's almost like a reverse bradley effect. they've moved on. they want to win again. but they don't -- they aren't really comfortable admitting it, especially to people that donald trump says wears horns and are enemies of the state, or all the people that donald trump has suggested that his supporters hate. so you have people quietly saying, 6 out of 10 in iowa, saying they're ready to move on hoping the hard core members don't pick up on it. again, i agree with the numbers. the cake isn't baked yet. >> yeah, that number right there is sort of, to your point,

anecdotally what you hear, which is, there are hard core trump supporters not going anywhere. they're unmovable. signs are up. flags are ready for 2024. it is probably less than the 41%. there are people who say, "yeah, i voted for him the first time. i'm tired. exhausted. we have to go through four trials maybe during a presidential election? can somebody else step up?" they're not thrilled with the options and the ones that will be on stage tomorrow milwaukee, we'll see if anybody steps up and emerges. but the des moines register/nbc news poll, it is fascinating in the contradictions. you see 60% almost want to move on, yet he has a lead of, what, 25 points or something, 23 points over the rest of the field. a large percentage of the likely caucus goers there say, we don't think he really committed a

crime. he didn't do anything worthy of keeping him out of the white house, but we want to move on. it is hard to make sense of it, other than what you're saying, maybe they don't want to say to a pollster from nbc news or the des moines register that they're done with trump, but maybe they are? i don't know. it's a hard one to figure out. fact remains, even with the latest number that we're highlighting this morning, that he is in demand of this primary right now. whether he ekes out a victory or wins big in iowa, he didn't have to be on the debate stage because he is leading by a wide margin in this primary, right now anyway. >> former president donald trump will travel to atlanta on thursday to turn himself in after he and 18 others were indicted in a wide-ranging election interference case. it's called an enterprise. trump announced the news himself on social media. the former president will report to the fulton county jail in atlanta for booking. the county sheriff has said

there will be a, quote, hard lockdown of the street when he arrives. district attorney fani willis has given all defendants until noon on friday to voluntarily surrender. trump's lawyes have agreed to a $200,000 bond for the case. this is for trump himself. the first time he's been made to pay a cash bond, and that is just for the charges against trump. that is $100,000 higher than other known agreements for the other co-defendants. trump's bond agreement also includes language not seen in the others. the order directly states the former president cannot intimidate his co-defendants, witnesses or otherwise obstruct the case in any way. >> gene robinson, all this going to be playing out thursday. the debate is wednesday night. it looks like, again, donald trump is doing everything he can to distract. he is talking about this interview that he's going to be doing on twitter, or x, whatever, but it'll be a four

day old interview. nobody is going to be watching that. i'm sorry. i'll take that back. some may be watching it. >> they have to find it somewhere else. >> a four-day old interview is not going to be news. i just wonder if it is going to -- how much it is going to take away from the actual debate. but this will. donald trump knows that. the timing, the next morning after the debate will smother out any news from the debate. >> exactly. >> i've got to say, though, that cuts both ways. it eclipsed them. but, you know, gene, vaughn hilliard, when he was talking to the voters in iowa, had voters saying, "i like donald trump, but it is time to move on. there's too much." >> yeah. >> so they're going to see a debate of serious people on stage the night before talking policy, and the next day, they're going to see donald trump, you know, getting his mug shot. >> surrendering.

>> surrendering to authorities for the fourth time. i just wonder if that opportunity make the exhaustion for the people vaughn talked to and other voters go up even higher. >> well, you know, it'd be fascinating if that sort of flips the switch or if that has an impact, the contrast we're going to see tomorrow night and thursday morning. big questions. how many people are going to tune into the debate absent donald trump? fox news is certainly upset that he's not going to participate because they were counting on the ratings bump. that's one thing we'll see. then you're absolutely right, that someone could really shine in that debate. someone could wipe the floor with the other contenders. let's say tim scott has a great night or something like that, and the next morning, it's just gone. that news cycle has about two or three hours in it, and then it's

all trump, all the time. that is a weapon that he is going to deploy throughout this campaign, his ability to draw attention, his ability to draw the television cameras. now, he's got four criminal proceedings in which to, you know, to add to his repertoire of, "look at me. look at me." >> yeah. >> this is going to be our year. this is what it is going to be like, trump going, "look at me. look at me." >> katty kay, one person who is going to love how this is all setting up is chris christie, who now, in a poll out yesterday, chris christie moving into second place in new hampshire, ahead of desantis and some others. but chris christie is going to absolutely love this. right now, if 60% of people in the republican party want to move on in iowa, and let's say

it's only 40% around the rest of the country. i suspect it is probably higher. chris christie has the ability, with a forceful performance, to start consolidating some of those 1%, 2%, 3%s. people may see him as an alternative. if he is already in second place in iowa, again, a good bit behind donald trump, but maybe some consolidation comes there. he's going to say, "hey, here, we're talking about your future. tomorrow, donald trump is going to be indicted for the fourth time for obsessing about his past." it's a pretty strong argument chris christie, the former prosecutor, could make. >> chris christie is going to be the only one pretty much on stage who -- mike pence may do it a little bit -- but he'll be the only one to take the fight directly to donald trump. it's still hard to see how he gets out of the single digits that he is in at the moment. i mean, do iowa voters reward him for that?

do they think they still want somebody who is politically pure? i mean, the other interest thing in the nbc news/"des moines register" poll is how many iowans are saying electability is not their primary concern at the moment. they want somebody who represents their values. for the moment, they still seem to think donald trump is that person. it'll be fascinating to see whether or not the double whammy of the back-to-back of the wednesday debate followed by the thursday morning arraignment, does it flip things back to normal? i was writing a piece about this election being like "alice in wonderland." what is down is up, and what is up is down. you think normalnormal services be resumed, and the weights of things will pull donald trump down. maybe voters in iowa and new hampshire will look at the seriousness of the content on wednesday night, and there will be policy discussions wednesday night, which this country desperately needs. then we'll look at the

arraignment thursday morning and decide, you know, actually, donald trump is too exhausting and has too much baggage for them. he's so far ahead in the polls, it's hard to see that route, but maybe it is just possible. >> let's talk about some of the weights on donald trump with former u.s. attorney barbara mcquaid and nbc news justice and intelligence correspondent ken dilanian. good morning to you both. ken, i'll start with you about this bond deal for the former president with the fulton county district attorney fani willis. $200,000, twice the other defendants, but also, more specifically, ken, these rules set out about threats. the cost of threats to donald trump if he goes after a co-defendant, if he goes after a witness, if he tampers with the jury, on and on down the list. what'd you make of this? how unusual are some of these conditions of bond? >> well, willie, what we know is that we didn't see those conditions imposed on any of the other co-defendants so far. it was really striking. i mean, other judges in some of

these other cases have verbally conveyed to donald trump or his lawyers that he shouldn't threaten or try to intimidate witnesses or potential jurors. this lays it out in black and white, in very clear terms. he's not allowed to threaten or intimidate co-defendants, witnesses, potential jurors or really anybody else, and specifically, it says, including by posts or re-posts of material that others have posted on social media. that language included really struck a lot of people as very explicit, putting mr. trump in a box. now, the issue is how does the judge enforce it? people look at this and say, donald trump would love nothing more than to have a situation where a judge is bringing him down to atlanta, this judge, and potentially seeking to jail him. because he'd just make another appeal to his supporter, raise more money, and declare himself a first amendment martyr.

it'll be difficult for this judge and others in other cases to determine where the line is for donald trump's first amendment rights as he is running for president, and tweets and other rhetoric that crosses the line into intimidation or threats. that's a tough situation. most experts believe they're going to give him a lot of latitude. one other separate point. what is happening thursday is not an arraignment, it is a surrender only. he is going to be booked into the fulton county jail. that's what i think makes this different from all of the other situations which were both arraignments and surrenders. i think to the public, it got lost and translated as donald trump is appearing in court. on thursday, donald trump is appearing in the fulton county jail, where he will be fingerprinted and mug shotted. that's it. so that's going to be a striking image for the former president of the united states at a local jail, guys. >> the area around that jail is going to be locked down when the former president arrives there tomorrow. barb, that was my question for you, about penalties. let's say he violates some of these conditions of bond.

he posts something, some threat or even re-posts something to one of the witnesses in the case. what realistically will happen to him? >> well, the judge has a few options. some of it is a warning, which is probably the first step. the ultimate penalty, of course, would be to revoke the bond. the prosecutors know what they're doing bynegotiating the terms. they see what is happening in the oh cases. in this case, he made a disparaging comment about the former lieutenant of georgia. they're trying to stop that. as ken said, i think it is going to be difficult for a judge to use the ultimate hammer, which is to revoke the bond and jail donald trump awaiting trial. but i think donald trump doesn't want to mess around and find out because that would be such a devastating consequence. i agree that maybe he wants to be a martyr for the first amendment, but he also very much wants, i think, his liberty. being jailed in the rice street jail while he awaits trial is

certainly no picnic. so i think we'll see things that come close to the line. i think he will try to push a warning before he goes any further because it will be a difficult decision for a judge to revoke the bond. but if a judge is really doing his job, he is going to see that his job is to enforce the law and to manage this case, regardless of any political consequences that might come. >> ken, do you know, in terms of process, i know we saw the actual indictment live, are cameras going to be in there? then the other question is, what do we know about the other co-defendants making bond? >> the last i heard, we don't expect cameras to record the book process. that's generally not done. i could be wrong about that, but that's the last i heard. we know that, for example, among the other co-defendants, john eastman has posted $100,000 bond. i believe there's a couple

others. i'm not fully up to speed. but we -- they all have to surrender before friday, so we expect to see all of them, one by one. as you mentioned, we saw one of the co-defendants, jenna ellis, complaining that donald trump is not taking care of her legal fees or helping out to defray her costs in any way. you may see that sentiment uttered by some of these other people. things are starting to get very serious for these people that allegedly engaged in this conspiracy, mika. >> bob, the posts that donald trump put out on truth social talking about fani willis and going to russia, russia, russia, because they think he is going to skip jail, i mean, how close does that fall within the restrictions that have been placed on him? is that the kind of thing he can post, or is there. >> reporter: -- is that close to the wind? >> it's about witnesses in the case, the public and inciting civil unrest.

i think the judge, i think the prosecutor might be fair game, but, you know, in terms of criticizing their motives and other kinds of things. but when it comes to threats, i think it is going to be different. so i imagine we will see donald trump skate as close to the line as possible. i think he knows he's going to get a long leash. he knows he is going to get at least a warning. i see him going after the prosecutor instead of the witnesses because she's a public official and, you know, first amendment rights when it comes to officials offer a lot of leeway. >> former u.s. attorney barbara mcquaid and nbc's ken dilanian, thank you, both, very much for being on this morning. still ahead on "morning joe," a lot to get to. the justice department is pushing back on former president trump's attention to move his election trial to 2026. what special counsel jack smith's team is saying about that. plus, new hampshire governor chris sununu out with a new

warning to republicans. the party will lose with donald trump at the top of the ticket. we'll read if his new opinion piece. also ahead, president biden makes a visit to hawaii where he toured the devastation from the deadliest wildfire in this country in recent history. we'll get a live report from maui. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back.

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and grow. constant contact. helping the small stand tall. being middle class right now, it's tough making ends meet for sure. republicans in congress say if we just cut taxes even more for the biggest corporations the money will eventually someday trickle trickle down to you. right. joe biden would rather just stop those corporations from charging so damn much. capping the cost of drugs like insulin. cracking down on surprise medical bills and all those crazy junk fees. there's more work to do. tell the president to keep lowering costs for middle class families.

live look at the white house. half past the hour. another new number just released from the new nbc news -- "des moines register" survey shows 51% say they believe donald trump's claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

41% say they don't believe it. 8% say they're not sure. belief in the so-called big lie is most prevalent among iowans. making less than $70,000 a year, with 69% of them trusting trump. 62% of iowa evangelicals, and 59% of those without college degrees also believe the election was stolen. >> willie, we can -- you know, this is the sort of thing -- i just don't know how much to pay attention to this. i mean, i don't want to -- >> we pay attention to it. >> -- freak anybody out at home, so, please, please hold on to whatever you're holding on to. but there was a point in 2005 where 60% of democrats thought 9/11 was an inside job. it dissipates, all right? we get the moon landing conspiracies. we got, you know, the jfk conspiracies. >> different timing, though,

with social media. >> junior conspiracies. >> technology. it's different, joe. >> it's different and, yet, it's not different. willie knew where i was going there. the thing is, again, 51% of republicans think that maybe the election was stolen. okay, that, to me, is ground noise. 90%, we got an issue going. 51%, again, the question is, again, this reverse bradley effect. you know, if you get a call and you're in iowa and you feel like the media has been, like, talking down to you your whole life and you go, "hi, i'm from new york city, do you think that the election was stolen from donald trump?" you know, or if you're from even "the des moines register" polling outfit, and you're anne, there is a skepticism. i think my point is, and willie is trying to figure out what my point is here. >> i'm still here. >> actually, i think the 51% is

actually a lower number than i would have expected at this point, in the middle of indictments from people that donald trump say are the devil coming after him. i just think there is this rising exhaustion and, at the same time, i see other polls that show, while 51% may think this, a majority of iowans, i believe i saw, said, "let's stop talking about the 2020 election." i hear it from republicans. 70%, 75%. they go, let's not talk about 2020 anymore. let's talk about winning in 2024. >> i think you're right about that. i think the problem is two things. number one, donald trump is a different vessel than we had in any of those other examples that you laid out. meaning, there are a lot of people in this country, a lot of republicans who take what he says as gospel, almost literally. in the poll we talked about yesterday, they believe what

donald trump says more than their family and friends or their pastor or all the people we trusted growing up, our teachers and our coaches. >> yeah. >> that's a guy, whatever he says goes for many people in this country. that's one thing. i think the other question is, what's the alternative? if it's not donald trump, everyone who is exhausted, and i agree, there are a had the of republicans exhausted by donald trump, where do they go? maybe they thought it was ron desantis. for six months, it's been, i don't know, maybe he's not what we thought he was. gets another shot tomorrow night in milwaukee to impress people. where else can people go? let's talk about it with matt lewis of the daily beast. your title is, "trump voters don't believe in polls or the media, only trump." explain the headline more, and help us sus out what we're seeing in the polls, which is a lot of people don't think he committed a crime, they still support him, and yet, 60% almost

in the poll in iowa say, "we hope somebody else emerges." >> right. willie, basically, liked at these three prominent polls that have happened recently. one is this ap poll that basically showed 53% of americans, not republicans, general election voters, would not vote for trump under any circumstance. then i looked at the cbs news/ugov poll and the nbc news, "des moines register" iowa poll. if you believe the polls, and that's the caveat, essentially, donald trump can't win a general election, but he also can't lose a primary. this is unusual, right? normally, if you are perceived to be unelectable in a general election, that'd preclude you from winning the primary. but, of course, what we've seen is that republicans, at least according to these recent polls,

are not really persuadable. they're not really movable. they don't care about the electability issue. i think only 29% prize the ability to beat joe biden when it comes to making their primary decision. as you just noted, they're not -- not only will they not listen to pollsters or the accomplishment media, they won't listen to their families as opposed to donald trump. they won't listen to their clergy. so it's really hard to imagine a scenario where donald trump -- again, you know, the caveat here is if you believe the recent polling -- it's hard to imagine a scenario where donald trump doesn't become the republican nominee. >> i mean, think about this. we've been hearing, gene, for so long, that iowa voters are deeply religious. oh, christian evangelicals. oh, they're the most -- if you

go to iowa, they love jesus. >> come on. don't make fun. >> so much! >> well, it is critical. >> we've been hearing it since pat robertson won in 1988. maybe he was in second, i don't know. maybe he won. i don't remember. but we've been hearing, "they're so righteous." now what do we find out? they trust a four-time indict i reality show tv host, who a judge called a rapist, who bragged about sexually molesting women, saying it's the way it's always been, and maybe that's a good thing. he doesn't know whether it's good or not. twice as many of the voters -- >> porn star. >> yeah, porn star, payoff, illegal.

now, twice as many of them basically say, "we trust that guy over a minister of jesus christ." >> yeah. amazing. >> and scene. go, gene. >> no, i mean, it's amazing. what those numbers suggest is that a whole lot of people in iowa are going to hell, right? i mean, they are not going to be received. >> he's joking, iowa people. he's joking. >> that was -- okay. >> that is an incredible figure from that poll. that people trust trump over their clergy. >> they're going to hell. >> he was joking. >> how are you thinking of your christianity? how are you thinking of your faith to get to that point? i -- you know, matt, i think you make an incredible point there. can we write this story of this

election already, that donald trump wins the primary and donald trump loses the general? that seems to be what all the numbers are suggesting. is there any way the republican party can avoid this? >> well, you know, i think what joe has been talking about this morning is the possibility, right? up until now, and i think in the last two elections, donald trump would really underperform among pollsters. people would be shy about admitting. they didn't want to admit they were going to vote for donald trump, but then they would. the question is, has that reversed now? is it possible that republican voters want to tell -- that republican voters want to tell pollsters, want to tell the media they're supporting trump, but secretly they're open to another possibilities? so this brings us, i guess, to teasing the debate wednesday night. this is an opportunity. donald trump will not be there.

so ron desantis, who is, i think, clearly in second place nationally, has an opportunity to, i don't want to say to close the deal, but how about to open the deal? to make himself a viable alternative. can he do it? i am skeptical, but the ball is in his court. >> the ball is in his court. >> i mean, he has to, i don't know, between now and tomorrow night get a personality. i'm serious. >> well, you know -- >> i'm not joking at all. >> blocking and tackling. >> kind of rude. >> i would say actually talk about issues that actually matter to mainstream republicans. >> be kind. >> yeah, try not to -- >> try not to yell at people and be rude. try not to focus on these really, really wedge issues in the state of florida that don't mean anything to the rest of the country. try to explain your six-week abortion ban. >> yeah. >> i mean, if ron desantis is the next guy, that's -- we've got a long way to go. >> well, i mean, i don't think ron will be coming to you for

debate prep. >> unfortunately for him. >> in an iowa republican debate. >> he needs to be nice. >> that's a good place to start. >> yeah. >> senior columnist for "the daily beast," matt lewis, we thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you, matt. >> thank you for bringing winston and joan along. always great for the ride. >> love it. >> by the way, willie, bob dole won, i'm told, in 1988. but i think that robertson was in second place. again, you know, the funny thing is, i can hear people mocking us for saying that people secretly don't want trump to win, but they won't say it publicly. but if those people were to mock us, this is what is so rich about it, they're the ones quietly saying it off camera. politicians will go on camera and be trumpy, then go off

camera and say, "oh, my gosh, we're going to lose." you have people on other cable news networks talking trump, trump, then they get off and think he is a nightmare. it was different when he was president. i must say, i don't talk to any people or hear from any people who are pushing donald trump on the air that say the same thing off the air anymore. they know it's a disaster. that was one of the amazing things that came out in all that discovery with the voting company, is what all of the people that were the biggest trump supporters on air, how they were trashing him off the air. again, not a shock because we've been hearing that from politicians and cable tv news hosts for seven years now. >> yeah. the republicans, especially i'm thinking of leadership in the congress, have had so many chances to be leaders and to accept one of the many, many off-ramps given to them by

donald trump. whether it was on the day of january 6th, lindsey graham is the prime example, beating the lectern, saying, i'm out, then changed his mind when he was chased through the airport with people calling him a traitor. there was hunter biden. they've had chances to walk away from trump and have taken none of them. privately, they roll their eyes. they're sick of it. but they fear not even him so much, they fear his voters. if they cross him, maybe they'll lose their own power and lose their own seats. here we are with people privately protesting donald trump and saying, "won't somebody else come along and save us? please, glenn youngkin." we hear the glenn youngkin example, the virginia governor, as if there is somebody else out there. it is wish casting, it sounds to me. >> right. >> somebody else to safe them from donald trump. right now, it doesn't look like it. >> they send flares up over the governor's mansion in richmond. we were at an event last night,

and it was like, the name youngkin is whispered. the great hope. i'm not so sure. coming up, new reporting on the war in ukraine and the early impact of president biden's controversial decision to supply the country with u.s. made cluster munitions. "morning joe" will be right back. ♪ the thought of getting screened ♪ ♪ for colon cancer made me queasy. ♪ ♪ but now i've found a way that's right for me. ♪ ♪ feels more easy. ♪ ♪ my doc and i agreed. ♪ ♪ i pick the time. ♪ ♪ today's a good day. ♪ ♪ i screened with cologuard and did it my way! ♪ cologuard is a one-of-a kind way to screen for colon cancer

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welcome back. thank you for the view from our friends at wnbc and chopper 4. as the war in ukraine nears the

year and a half mark, "the washington post" is highlighting ukraine's efforts to deploy the cluster bombs from the united states. the cluster bombs have been useful for thwarting advances. the main advantage is the enemy is scared to go on assault. joining us with more, national security reporter for "the washington post," john hudson. good morning. obviously, the transfer of these cluster bombs and these munitions from the united states to ukraine was controversial. a good number of democrats voted against it in the defense bill. these are bombs that have been outlawed in countries around the world. how are they being used, what is the significance on the battlefield? >> exactly right. this is the most controversial arms transfer of biden's presidency. when i went to ukraine with my colleagues and went to the front lines, we wanted to know how they're being used.

they are having an important impact when it comes to the dependence of ukraine. right now, the russians are pushing in northern, in eastern ukraine, and when the ukrainians are firing these against russian infantry, it basically stops the assault. you have russians seeking cover. it is helping ukraine shoot into dense forests where they can't exactly see where their target is. they can kill russian infantry. it caused a number of russian convoys to scatter and scamper in different levels of disarray. it is also having an important impact on helping the ukrainians continue the offensive and stretch it out. as you know, the ukrainians are

lowartillery, and the supply is beefing up the artillery they have. at the same time, there are concerns about what the unexploded ordinances will do when, god willing, this conflict comes to an end at some point. as you know, these bomblets can last for years and years. one of the artillery brigades i spoke to said there wasn't really an accounting practice in place. that, obviously, contradicts with what officials in kyiv and washington have said, which was that the condition that the u.s. would send these cluster bombs was that they would be well accounted for. so we've got a number of different ways that these are being used, and some continuing concerns about how they might impact everyday ukrainians when the war comes to an end. >> yeah. john, the reality is it is very hard for the americans to keep eyes on what happens to those weapons once they cross the border and whose hands they end up in. are these cluster bombs having

any impact on the mine fields that the russians have laid? my understanding is that that has been one of the things that's really, you know, stalled the ukrainians in their offensive push, is that the russians just had that much time to lay, you know, miles long areas with mines. that's stopping the ukrainians getting through the land. >> it's a great point. the minefields have been devastating to blunting the ukrainian offensive, and it is why they haven't advanced as far as they can. these webs of trenches and mines. the difficulty with cluster munitions is they're more effective against infantry that are exposed and up and around, opposed to infantry there are burro ed burrow ed into trenches. they've blown up some minefields, but it hasn't been the main purpose and benefit. it's been more complicated. the advantage is hitting exposed

infantry. that's why you continue to have problems with the ukrainians pushing further south and cutting that important land bridge to crimea, even though they have this large arsenal of u.s. provided cluster munitions. >> john, step back for a moment and just, overall, from your trip, has the ukrainian offensive stalled? is it making progress? will we at the end of it say ukraine took back a significant amount of its territory, made progress toward cutting this land bridge or not? >> eugene, these were very difficult discussions with troops near the front lines. they are exhausted. they have been fighting for a very long time. many of them haven't had breaks in a very long time. there is very strong belief in the importance of their cause. they are defending the ukrainian homeland. but it is not having a

breakthrough. you just can't deny that that is the case. there was the hope that the ukrainian forces were going to push far south, capture towns and cut the supply routes that's feeding the invasion, eliminate the supply routes. they haven't been able to do that. the offensive is not over yet, but it is not going as far as ukrainians hoped it would at this point in time. >> national security reporter for "the washington post," john hudson, thank you very much for your reporting and insight this morning. still ahead on "morning joe," health officials are tracking the spread of a new highly mutated covid strain. we'll tell you where the first case was just reported in the u.s. "morning joe" will be right back.

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look at that, mika. >> yeah. >> tell me, how far east can you see in that -- i mean, west can you see in the condo? >> well, it's not my condo, so i wouldn't know. >> please, humidity. >> it is august 22nd. katty kay, eugene robinson still with us. and joining the conversation, we have msnbc contributor mike barnicle is here with us. >> mike barnicle, i've noticed something here. >> what have you noticed? >> well, just, it used to be in '16, everybody was talking about trump all the time. but we've gotten past that point in social occasions. people don't want to talk about him. in fact, if you bring him up,

most people go, eh, please, don't start. but with four indictments, with the republican debate, with him going in georgia, i guess, on thursday, it does -- >> surrendering to the futon county -- >> this summer, everybody is doing just what he wants them to do, talking about him all the time. >> you know, joe, we here every day for the past several years have talked about the damage that donald trump has done to our governmental institutions, the damage he's done to america's reputation among the nato countries, the fear he puts into our allies. we talk about that every day for the years. but the damage has extended itself, i believe, i think, into everyday conversations, in that this summer specifically, since all the indictments started pouring out, you cannot go anywhere. you cannot be eating a meal. you cannot be going to a ball game. you cannot be sitting alone on a park bench reading the paper

when someone doesn't approach you to ask you about donald j. trump. i mean, the cult of trumpism is verbal. it's passed on to people who ask, "how can people vote for this man? who are these people?" you tell, "they're your neighbors, people you know. they're people you see each and every day." >> yeah. >> "that's who they are." he's in our minds, in our bloodstream. it is a sickness. it is a disease that america is carrying. trumpitis. >> wow. >> well, there is that. there is trumpitis, and it is a toxic disease. but i also am seeing an arc in a lot of conversations, and it spans trump supporters and people who are vehemently against trump, watching these indictments. as each indictment goes past, they think he is going to get out of it. then he has to get arraigned, then he has to -- and now, he

has to pay bond. now, he has to show up in fulton. i'm seeing the people found themselves almost obsessed with how wrong everything he has done is going, "oh, my gosh, he is going to be held accountccounta" that conversation is changing to more of a calm place. >> maybe. >> willie -- >> you can't try to steal an election. >> -- around me at least, for mike, it sounds like mike has it bad. mike has it real bad. >> mike has it bad. >> but, you know, people come up to me talking at airports and they'll ask you a question and go, "eh, i don't know. have you seen what the red sox did last night?" i mean, i just don't talk about it. really -- >> i do, i talk about it all the time. i think it is interesting. >> it's exhausting. >> it is important for our democracy to watch every aspect of this. i watch all the different

right-wing cable news networks to see how far they will go. >> she does. >> with lies and conspiracies, because you have to understand what trump supporters are arday. >> okay, sweetie. >> then you understand how potent this poison is. >> okay. see, willie, that's what i'm talking about. >> thank you, katty. >> i just -- i will walk in the kitchen. >> you have to watch it. >> tv will be -- >> i don't have to watch it. >> you can't be in denial. >> i'm not in denial. but some people -- >> some people are. >> some people like to be triggered. >> i'm not triggered. >> i don't like to be triggered. >> i'm not sure where they're going to go after he goes through a trial and has to pay his bond and has to surrender. >> i need a paper bag. >> fulton county jail. i'm not sure what the networks that have if feasted on his success, exactly what are they going to do now, now that they've been kind of proven to be, you know, just going along for the ride.

>> anyway, willie, it's very sunny outside, beautiful summer day. >> let's get out there. >> we're coming up, willie, on labor day weekend coming up. >> sure. >> if you haven't seen "oppenheimer," just awesome. >> great. >> i still haven't seen "barbie." my 20-year-old daughter is saying i need to see it. >> have you? >> yup, saw it with my family couple weeks ago. outstanding. >> yeah. you know, i've heard that is outstanding. baseball, if you're not a yankees or red sox fan, that's going on. getting the kids back in school, that's always exciting, going to the back of the school festivities. willie, football season is starting. how awesome is that? >> the best. >> after that, you've got the leaves changing. fall is coming. the crisp briskness of late

september in new york. there's so much for us to be looking forward to and for us to celebrate. we don't have to talk about politicians all the time, do we? >> yeah, we do. >> i'd rather not, but it is front and center in our lives. i'm glad you mentioned college football. you know who opens at home? vandebilt commodores hosting hawaii, 17.5 point favorites in nashville. we don't need to talk about that. let's get back to -- >> those guys from hawaii, what are they going to figure out? when you go to the dud on a saturday night, mister, you better buckle your chin strap. >> bring your lunch pail or dinner pail, whatever it is on a saturday night. there is, of course, normal people have normal things they're interested on. mika, more time on the lobster

boat and less time watching oax max. great on the lobster boat. we need you pulling the traps. >> yes. >> but it is true, you know, the interesting conversations i've had with people i know and love and trust who support donald trump and who have stayed with him, i say, "guys, what about everything we know now? what about the four indictments? what about everything you've read? what about january 6th? if nothing before that convinced you that maybe it was time to walk away or find somebody else," and to mika's point, even super smart people i know, love and trust, they give you back what you hear on the networks that mika is talking about, which is, "what about hunter biden? you don't talk about hunter biden enough." that's where they go because that's what they're presented with. these are critical thinkers, smart people, but it is what you continue to hear. they're going to ride with this guy, i guess, until they can find somewhere else to go, somewhere better. we'll see maybe starting tonight at the debate in milwaukee if

that person starts to emerge. doesn't look like it in the polls. meanwhile, former president donald trump will travel to atlanta on thursday to turn himself in after he and 18 others were indicted in a wide-ranging election interference case. the former president will report to the fulton county jail in atlanta for booking. county sheriff there has said there will be a hard lockdown of the street when trump arrives. district attorney fani willis had given all defendants until noon on friday to surrender voluntarily. trump's lawyers agreed to a $200,000 bond for the case. the first time he actually has been made to pay a cash bond. that is $100,000 higher than other known agreements. trump's bond agreement also includes language not seen in the others. the order directly states the former president cannot intimidate his co-defendants, witnesses, or obstruct otherwise the case in any way. joining us now, nbc's ali vitali, live from the fulton county jail in atlanta. good morning.

what do we expect to see when the former president reports on friday -- or thursday? excuse me. >> reporter: willie, i was wondering if i should start this report talking about the crispness of fall or my fantasy football draft, because, clearly, that's where the attention is on the panel. i get it. that's okay. i can change gears. >> who are you taking first in your draft, ali? >> reporter: well, i'm not just going to spill this publicly. my friends in my league are watching. >> got it. >> reporter: we can strategize off-air. if you're looking at fulton county, where i've been the last few days and waiting for folks to start turning themselves in, we now know when we're going to start to see a little bit of that. potentially, we'll see john eastman at some point today. there was talk that maybe he was going to try to get in and out faster because he was going to try to turn himself in at 2:00 or 3:00 in the morning. we'll see if that's what happens. we're trying to watch through somewhat tinted windows as folks

come in and out of the entrance behind me. of course, there is the former president himself. we know because he has said this, but also our law enforcement sources have said this, too, that he is likely to turn himself in on thursday. that's, of counter progras tomorrow night's gop debate. he's already filmed an interview with tucker carlson. it is a troll on multiple levels, trump trying to get back at fox, and also carlson trying to get back at his former employer. i think the thing, though, that struck me as you were all talking about the ways that republicans have stuck with trump and why they're doing that, even through four indictments and dozens and dozens of charges, in large part, because we went through the january 6th committee hearings. a lot of the things that we're talking about are things that republicans who have worked for trump are saying. this is not democrats like congressman adam schiff or raskin saying this. they got republicans in the room

who were there to testify to it. we watched the hearings last summer. they're playing out again at the department of justice and here in fulton county. you can hear the georgia secretary of state phone call. none of this is theoretical evidence. but i think what is striking is, you know, the same republicans who you know, love and trust, willie, i have in my life, as well. i also meet people all the time on the road throughout iowa, south carolina, new hampshire, all the states we travel to, and i think it comes down to the central kernel that we also reflect in our poll, which is that 51% of iowa respondents in our poll say that they believe that trump won the 2020 election. that is what it comes down to at the end of the day. it's the reason we're standing outside the fulton county jail. it is the reason the department of justice has a special counsel for this. he didn't, but there are so many people out there who believe him more than their own pastors, our polling shows. that's why we're here in the first place. >> nbc's ali vitali, thank you

so much. let's bring in former u.s. attorney and senior fbi official chuck rosenberg. chuck, let's talk about trump's surrender and the bond that he is going to make and his co-defendants. what is the likelihood he helps his co-defendants out? what's the likelihood his co-defendants actually make bond? what is the process beyond that for the former president? >> right, mika. lots of good questions. so the likelihood that he helps anybody but himself i think is relatively small. these bonds require only 10% down. i don't think it is going to be all that difficult for each of his co-defendants to meet that threshold. it is a standard, typical way of making bond. there is a similar statutory scheme in the federal system. i want to make one observation, and i think it is keeping with the theme so far this morning at the top of this hour.

there was a wonderful federal judge in the eastern district of virginia where i practiced, albert v. bryan jr. he was on the bench almost 50 years. his father before him for almost 40. i was arguing once at a detention hearing that a defendant was a risk of flight, ought to be held. judge bryan wryly observed that the real problem with that particular defendant was not that he was a risk of flight but that he was a risk of non-flight. he just wouldn't go away. that makes me think a bit about mr. trump. that maybe he'll go to another country with whom we don't have extradition, and georgia will keep his $20,000 and we'll call it even. >> chuck, you know, the defendant who won't go away, we have another defendant who won't go away, seemingly, that we're talking about here every day. his lawyers have asked for a court date three years out. three years from now.

that might provoke a sense of humor in a federal judge or a sense of outrage in a federal judge. where do you think that's going to go? >> yeah, you know, mike, judges hear a lot of outrageous things, and i don't think they're outraged by it normally. i don't think it is going to go anywhere. it is not a reasonable request. the speedy trial act actually promises a speedy trial to both sides, not just the defendant. we often think of it as a one-sided opportunity for a defendant to receive a speedy trial, but the public has a right, as well. the public is represented by prosecutors in court. so i don't think that's going to fly, make, nor should it. it is going to be very hard, if not impossible, to try four cases before the election. but it is not impossible to try one or two. the federal judges know this. they control their dockets. they control their courtrooms. as i learned being a prosecutor in the eastern district of virginia, the rocket docket,

this stuff can move expeditiously. we just need judges to do that. >> the request made by the trump team was for the federal case in washington, not the one in atlanta. chuck, let me ask you about some of the conditions of this bond and how exactly they would impoz penalties, how the court would impose penalties against donald trump if he violated them. talking about not intimidating witnesses or co-defendants, not reposting anything that might be suggestive of any of those things, intimidation. let's say he posts something today on truth social about a co-defendant, about a witness, as he has done before. he was attacking the d.a., fani willis, last night on truth social, but she's not, i guess, included in the restrictions. what if he goes after a witness? what can the court do exactly? >> yeah, a judge in any court has a series, willie, of punishments they can impose, from things that are relatively mild to things that are relatively severe. now, what's really hard here is

that the man is running for president. so he is entitled to speak as a candidate. but speaking as a candidate doesn't include threatening witnesses. and so, you know, there are a series of graduated punishments. a judge could issue a gag order, could find someone in contempt, revoke bond, or worst-case scenario, there's power the prosecutors have. we saw the indictment concerning the classified information, willie, in southern florida, in federal court, and it was superseded with additional courts of obstruction of justice. if mr. trump doesn't heed his obligations and continues to threaten and intimidate witnesses, not only can the judge impose additional sanctions, but prosecutors could supersede an indictment with witness intimidation charges. so, look, this is a tough, tough place for a judge to be, because you want to be on the right side of mr. trump's first amendment rights and permit him his

political speech, but you want to protect the integrity of the judicial process and ensure that witnesses are not threatened or harassed. it's almost like justice potter stewart said in a 1960s obscenities case in the court, you know it when you see it. witness intimidation and witness harassment are on the wrong side of the line. if he continues to do that, i believe there will be additional sanctions. >> you never know, that might be why his attorneys might have been able to convince him not to do the debate. >> could be. >> former u.s. attorney chuck rosenberg, thank you so much. i mean, imagine, judges have different rules, and now four different cases. >> four different cases. i've got to say, it does seem, willie, like maybe his attorneys are starting to get to it. maybe his attorneys, you know, talked him down off of -- >> just reality.

>> you know, he was going to give his press conference to talk about how all the evidence that the georgia election was stolen. that's when the governor came out and basically said that he is just lying to ya. he didn't hold that press conference. he said he's not going to the debate. debate is a nightmare scenario for lawyers. say desantis puts him in a corner or chris christie comes after him. donald trump will push right back and probably make one admission after another. so i wonder if he is starting to understand the gravity of the situation, that maybe, just maybe he may be smart enough to be a bit more guarded with his words. >> he -- yeah. >> i mean, the past is prologue, no, but who knows? he's never been indicted four times either. >> he seems to implicate himself every time he does an interview or public event or post on social media. some would say he confesses when he sits down for interview. he has the interview with tucker

carlson that will air tomorrow night against the debate. it'll be on x, formerly known as twitter. i'm not so sure about the idea of counter programming. you were making this point earlier, joe. i'm not so sure those eight republicans on stage tomorrow night won't really have it to themselves. i think the eyes of the country and of republican primary voters are going to be watching that stage. maybe some people will watch on twitter and want to see what he has to say, but it'll be more of the same. it's not a live interview. we'll see if he implicates himself further there. i do think these eight republican presidential candidates have a moment. they haven't really had many moments to themselves. none has really emerged. it'll be tomorrow night in milwaukee. ron desantis will be there along with mike pence, vivek ramaswamy, nikki haley, chris christie, tim scott, doug berg bergam and asa hutchinson. they met the polling requirements to participate. donald trump met the criteria

but decided to skip the debate. writer "the bulwark," tim miller, previously the communications director for jep jeb bush. you have eight candidates, most polling in single digits, some in low single digits, save ron desantis. chris christie has been creeping up, particularly in the state of new hampshire. what do you expect to see tomorrow night? >> good morning, willie. i have to say, i don't think you have to choose between bingeing newsmax, which like mika, i have been doing, and preparing for the lsu football season. >> there ya go. >> thank you. >> sure, fair. >> as far as the debate is concerned, look, i went to a cattle call in iowa two weeks ago with all the candidates, except for trump and christie. you would think trump wasn't there. people are hiding from him. they don't know what to say. if they criticize trump, they

worry the voters are going to be mad at them for criticizing somebody they like. if they don't criticize trump, you know, then they seem weak on stage. a lot of these folks are stuck between a rock and a hard place. you know, in debate prep in the past, traditionally, when i was working with jeb and other candidates, in the weeks leading up to the debate, you want to lay the groundwork for the narrative that you want to lay out on stage. you want to bolster arguments and prepare them. none of the folks, beside chris christie, has been doing that in regards to trump. none are prepping a line of attack they might want to lay out on stage. i don't know. i would love to be surprised. i'd love to see somebody, you know, go both fists at donald trump and try to change the nature of what we've seen so far in the race, but i'm going to have to see it to believe it. >> tim, since you've seen these folks up close and personal, is there one who you think might actually shine tomorrow night, might actually -- we might be talking about at least for a

while thursday morning before the trump surrender in fulton county? which one would you bet on? be. >> yeah, i want to caveat by saying this is not on the merits of what this person will say, but i've been impressed by vivek heounds like a maga republican that is in the mold of donald trump. now, at the bulwark, that is not a compliment. let's keep that in mind. the republican party, not everybody, there's about 25% of the party that really wants to go back to somebody like a tim scott, somebody that is more of an optimistic conservative, but a majority of the party either like trump -- excuse me -- a majority of the party like trump and will stick with him or will look for somebody that can advance his isolationist, culture warring arguments. vivek does that. he is a skilled communicator. some of the stuff he's said is

crazy, but it's worked for donald trump in the past. i don't know. the debate memo that leaked has the ron desantis super pac suggest he hammer vivek. i think it's a risk. from what i've seen of their performance, i'm not sure that ron desantis would come out of that looking so good. >> tim, governor chris sununu, republican governor, had an article up in "the new york times" saying that the party needs to narrow the field and fast if it doesn't want to end up with donald trump as its nominee. do you think that can happen? when do you think that might happen, and do you think he is right? >> i think he is mostly right, but i don't think he is being urgent enough about this. if donald trump wins iowa, i think this is important to understand, if he wins iowa on january 15th, this race is over january 16th effectively. donald trump has huge leads in the following states, iowa is his weakest state for a variety of reasons.

the field needs to narrow quick. "the des moines register" poll yesterday at first choice plus second choice, 52% for donald trump. 49% for desantis. 52% is a narrow majority. this field has to narrow quick and go at him quick. if they think that -- i think sununu suggested it narrow after new hampshire. this is over by then. it has to narrow faster than that. >> wow. writer at large for the bulwark, tim miller, thank you very much. >> i completely agree with tim, though he is an lsu fan. i do have to ask tim, are you guys to be going good this year? what does lsu look like? >> really good. sixth year senior, daniels, is coming back at quarterback. a little nervous about florida state week one, but looking forward to two straight wins over alabama. we'll see in tuscaloosa late october/early november. >> it is november the 4th. not that i know. but if you're going to be in

tuscaloosa in november, i believe it is november 4th, i will see you there. >> oh, boy, here we go. >> it should be a great game. >> let's make a date. watch out for herald perkins jr. >> okay. still ahead on "morning joe" -- >> i just want to say quickly, i couldn't agree more that, you know, chris sununu is saying, hey, let's wait until after new hampshire, it's too late. >> yeah. >> this has to be by the end of the year. >> if they want to solve their problems. >> there has to be consolidation. >> yeah. >> there was the belief when barack obama won iowa, and they were thinking inside the campaign, if we can win iowa, we're on our way. >> yeah. >> they won iowa, and they were on their way. took a little while. with donald trump, the only chance they have to slow him down is in iowa. because new hampshire, we saw it firsthand when we went to that event in new hampshire, like 4,000 people with a blizzard outside. new hampshire republicans are

still really intense for donald trump. then you go to south carolina. maybe one of his strongest states of all early republican primary states. if you don't stop him in iowa, the race is over. it's just that simple. so if these people that are running don't start seeing by, you know, october/early november that they have a chance to pick up momentum, it's not happening after the holidays. unless you're right up there at the end. if they want to stop him, they have to consolidate then. as tim said, it's done. horse is out of the barn. >> it is. >> after iowa. >> out of the gate. still ahead on "morning joe," southern california is cleaning up after historic weather there. we'll take a look at the damage caused by tropical storm hilary. plus, the latest from hawaii in the wake of president biden's trip to maui following the

nation's deadliest wildfire in modern history. and with a possible government shutdown looming the end of september, lawmakers from the house freedom caucus are out with a list of demands they want to include in any short-term funding bill. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back.

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beautiful shot of washington d.c. half past the hour on this sunny august morning. time for the papers across the country. "the orlando sental" reports that workers received theme park passes and discounts for years. now, the governor-appointed board wants to give employees a

$1,000 annual stipend instead. this comes as an internal analysis shows only about 50% of workers use their disney pass perks. "the news and observer" leads with ad campaigns for biden in battleground states. $25 million is the largest buy and earliest ever. the ads run for 16 weeks. they highlight the president's economic policies and aim to reach black and hispanic voters. and in pennsylvania, "the standard speaker" reports the state reached a settlement with election security groups which will require counties to publicly report voting machine malfunctions. the agreement also mandates improved public access to the voting equipment process and software upgrades for certain

counties. coming up on "morning joe," criminals locked up in washington, d.c., are taking lessons from a top university. morgan radford joins us with an exclusive look at a prison education program that could prepare inmates for a future in the tech industry. plus, famed gambler billy walters is our guest this morning. he joins us with his bombshell memoir that claims golfer phil mickelson has wagered more than $1 billion on sports. "morning joe" will be right back. to sleep, so when our windshield cracked, we needed it fixed right. we went to safelite.com. there's no one else we'd trust. their experts replaced our windshield, and recalibrated our car's advanced safety system. they focus on our safety...

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7:37 on the east coast. according to the u.s. bureau of justice statistics last year, 1.2 million people are currently locked up in american jails. more than 82% of inmates released in 2008 were arrested

again by 2018. a program run by the massachusetts institute of technology is hoping to help change that. m.i.t.'s brave behind bars prison education class is teaching inmates how to code. organizers hope that program will help students be better prepared for life after prison. joining us now with more on this story, nbc news correspondent, nbc news now anchor, our good friend morgan radford. good morning. >> good morning, willie. listen, prison reform is something we hear a lot but often we don't see it from the inside. there is a program that's trying to change what and how inmates learn behind bars. in an attempt to set them up for success once they are out. it is a win-win, says the founder, not only for the inmates but also you and me. take a look. >> reporter: correctional officers, jail cells and javascript, that's the combination at the central detention facility in washington, d.c., thanks to a program called brave behind

bars. you learned how to do this how long? >> three weeks. >> reporter: three weeks. it is a 12-week course that brings candidates from m.i.t. to jails and prisons, teaching inmates programming, digital literacy and how to make their own websites. that all comes from the code you were just writing? >> yes, ma'am. >> reporter: the goal, say co-founders martin and marissa, is to make sure inmates are ready for the real world when they get out. why come putters and coding? >> these skills are really kind of paramount for fostering success in the modern workplace. >> reporter: what about people who say, these people committed offenses. this is not where our time or our money should be going. what do you say? >> you can imagine that the people who are being released might be your neighbor. would you rather have that person have just spent years behind the wall without any support, or would you rather that they challenge themselves, learned marketable skills? when you look at it that way,

it's like, well, why not? >> reporter: since founded in 2020, the program has expanded to six correctional facilities across the eastern united states. helping more than 120 inmates in total so far. antoine white has been in federal prison three decades. he has been taking this coding class in his last days before getting released. do you hope to bring these skills with you? >> yes. i hope to continue learning about coding. hopefully more in the future i can get a high-paying job. >> reporter: federal data shows more than 40% of incarcerated people lack a high school dloem diploma, but education programs like this have been shown to re. it is a program with room to grow. >> enjoy the person. people make mistakes in life. they shouldn't be stopped from learning. if you're not willing to help

them, you're trying to help yourself, you'll never see nothing better. >> reporter: a lessons in ones and zeros that could lead to a second chance. >> the jails and prisons offering these classes are partnered with a college or university, meaning the students who finish the program will get real-life college credit, which means once they serve their time and they're released, they'll be one step closer to a full college degree. >> great idea. you touched at it in the piece, it's expanded to six other places. is there room for growth as they see the success of this program, to put it in country? >> that's the hope. the inmates say, look, this makes me feel like a human in a place where i feel like a number. this keeps me busy, makes me less likely to reoffend, and that's why they hope it can expand. >> morgan, there are a few populations in this country that are receiving lack of sympathy more so than anybody in prison. if you talk to the inmates, and i don't know how much you talked to during your reporting, you find out that they grew up with

a lack of family structure, many of them, a lack of educational structure, most of them, so this is kind of a gift in terms of their release. they will have some sort of structure to present to a potential employer. >> it comes down to structure and also relationships. one of them said, look, the fact that i had someone take their time, who is a professor at georgiatown, m.i.t., spend their time with me, it shows i'm worthy to being equal to the students who pay for this education. which, of course, is the rub. some people are saying, why should we offer these for free when people are paying good dollars for this? but this is the relationship and that investment that will ultimately pay dividends. >> brave behind bars. a fascinating story. morgan radford, great to see you. thanks so much. >> than, willie. israel's first female prime minister and her role during yom kippur. that's next on "morning joe." ex.

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would get drunk and attack jews. they'd beat jews to death in the street for fun. my father would hide us in the cellar, and we'd stay silent, hoping the killers would pass us by. my father's face, henry, i will never forget that look. all he wanted was to protect his children. i am not that little girl hiding in the cellar!

>> that is helen mirren in her role as golda meir. it's been 50 years since meir led her country through the yom kippur war. 2,500 israeli troops died in the 19 days of fighting. the new film, "golda," illustrates how the conflict took a toll on meir and her country. joining us now, guy, the director, and golda's grandson, great to have you. we talked about how wonderful helen is, what an extraordinary actor. how does she come to this piece of golda's story in it is about this moment in time. >> well, you know, when i joined the project, helen was already cast as, i think gideon was the first one who thought about helen as his grandmother.

he said, i see helen, i see my grandmother. helen did her research. first of all, she was 29 when he toured the country, toured israel. she volunteered in israel. big tomatoes. when she was 29, it was 1967. she was, you know, connected to israel from her youth. i think that when she came to the role, she was full of admiration to golda. she read everything about golda. she was really -- she read the script and immediately said yes. >> gideon, what was it like to see helen mirren finally in full makeup, giving that performance, looking almost exactly like your grandmother? >> it was very thrilling. it's a very powerful movie, and the script is so well written. golda was one who would say very clear things sometimes in very few words.

she was incredibly articulate in that way. i think that nick barton and the script really captures it, and helen mirren is incredible. i was sure she's -- she would be the one for it. that's why i i suggested to nicholas to approach her, and i was sure that she would really embrace this with a lot of commitment and love. >> guy, the clip that we came in with, it's today, she's from kyiv, originally from kyiv in the ukraine, and she a portrait of incredible strength in this film, and her nature comes across in this film, especially with regard to musha dayan, an iconic hero who takes a hit in this movie, yet she nurtures him

through this crisis on a day-to-day basis. >> musha lost it completely, this hero who considered israel the superman of israel completely lost it, and she was the grown-up in charge. she basically took over and said, listen, let's take it step by step. you go home, take two days off and i'll take over. she was the grown-up in charge, and you have to understand, this is a country after the six-day war, the hebrews after this, we are the kings of the middle east, but they got a giant slap, so that's where the entire command fell, and she was, like, she took over. >> guy, i'm curious, by the way, helen mirren, just amazing as, you know, someone who celebrates women over 50 reaching their greatest impact and highest success, she just keeps killing it, and she's amazing in this.

i'm wondering what you were hoping to accomplish with this movie and what stories or messages you were hoping to send that we haven't read in news clippings over the years or in books. >> first of all, i wanted to say that golda meir was the pariah of israel, she was the scapegoat of this war. they blame her. it was very easy to blame an older lady, all the misogynist commanders. she took the blame. there was a giant photo of her on the news week of israel saying the debacle. she resigned. she took responsibility. the declassified documents came out ten years ago, we understood that she was not the one to blame. she was not only the one to blame, and there was full of failures around her. so this movie is a little bit clearing her name, you know, and giving the right perspective 50

years after this war, and also let's remember, this woman paved the way to other women after her. we're talking about margaret thatcher, angela merkel, hillary clinton, she was a pioneer in her time. she was an amazing woman, and this film celebrates that. >> israel hasn't had another prime minister since gideon. the video shows a grandmother battling cancer during this period and smoking like a chimney nonetheless. what do you remember about her during that period and the kind of incredible stress she must have been under? >> yes, well, i have to be frank and golda was not as ill during the war as she's portrayed in the film. and the other thing is that she did not undergo any treatments

during the war. so since this film is not a documentary but a drama, a very fine drama, i think that this poetic license is okay, but the truth of the matter is that she wouldn't have gone for treatments during the war. and she had an incredible -- her body was -- she was on the one hand incredibly powerful and resilient and strong, and on the other hand, she had very severe medical problems. and i think, you know, her commitment and her heart and her spirit really took over, and so the footage of her walking in the sand and being so strong for the troops is really an incredible document, and i'm very happy that it was used in the film the way it was.

>> well, helen mirren is extraordinary, and the film is as well. it's called "golda," it is in theaters nationwide this friday. guy nattiv, gideon meir, congratulations on the film. >> thank you. still ahead this morning, former president trump set to turn himself in to authorities in georgia on thursday, the day after snubbing the first republican debate. we'll discuss the tough turns surrounding his release, and what happens exactly if he violates them. that's all straight ahead on "morning joe." es them. that's all straight ahead on "morning joe."

being middle class right now, it's tough making ends meet for sure. republicans in congress say if we just cut taxes even more for the biggest corporations the money will eventually someday trickle trickle down to you. right. joe biden would rather just stop those corporations from charging so damn much. capping the cost of drugs like insulin. cracking down on surprise medical bills and all those crazy junk fees. there's more work to do. tell the president to keep lowering costs for middle class families.

$200,000 bond today, everything that georgia has done so far, i'm really glad to see it because they're signaling that georgia is not going to give donald trump any special treatment. >> the fate of donald trump is in his hands. if he continues to make choices, now that he is out on bail in four criminal cases, it is incumbent on the prosecutors and the judge to take action.

>> in two days, donald trump says he will surrender to authorities in georgia as he is now set to pay a $200,000 bond. we're going to discuss the harsh terms included in trump's agreement. the warning from the judge, and the former trump attorney set to surrender today. >> and i'm going to say also, i mean, you look at the stories and look at the details of the bond payments, and as "the new york times" said yesterday, their questions, some of these people like rudy giuliani, maybe he'll be able to pay it. jenna ellis, others complaining about not having the money for this big case. >> i think they expected donald trump to pay. >> i think they expected a lot of things. i think they thought, again, we have been talking about this a good bit over the past several months. they thought, we have willie here, right? >> is willie back? >> willie's back. oh, and you look so nice,

willie. on your instagram you were a little scruffy. >> i shaved. i was on vacation. you don't shave on vacation. >> i kind of liked it. >> i couldn't have it on tv. >> come on. >> christina. >> you know, the thing s mika, willie and i didn't want to tell you this, but we have been doing some work together this year. you know, documentary film makers have been asking us for quite some time to recount what happened to us actually in the '70s, we talk about it a lot. we found a kazakhstani production company wants us to do return to israel. willie and i have been going there, alternating. >> sorry i brought it up. >> we were in istanbul. >> you were talking to willie about trump. go ahead. >> we're reenacting scenes from our capture and imprisonment, our refusal to leave, actually, until others were released. we were brave that day.

it wasn't easy, but we were there in istanbul for how long, joe, year, year and a half. >> yeah. i mean, i don't like to think about it. >> be strong. >> i don't like to think about it. it was early '70s, you know, i think we can get past it. but anyway, let's talk about now. >> why not? >> imprisonment now. >> that's our job. >> there's so many people who did so many things, i always talked about the info wars guy who said, oh, i can lie about sandy hook parents, no, a billion dollars, you know, a lot of lies about election machines and they could lie to pump up ratings. billion dollars later, they found out they can't lie, and it goes on and on, and here you have people like jenna ellis and others who just thought, oh, i'm going to try to steal an election. rudy giuliani, hey, maybe i'll get another five minutes of fame. and suddenly they're finding

stuff, i'll just say, got real. there are consequences to trying to steal an election. there are consequences, and let me be more specific because oh, first amendment rights, no, they were part of a conspiracy to create fraudulent electors to replace legitimate electors who represented tens of millions of voters, as the constitution said they would, and they just thought why not, we'll just go along for the ride with donald trump, and what we're finding now, just like the january 6th people who went in and said, yeah, hey, just because i think it's right and because donald trump tells me it's right, i can beat the hell out of cops, no, you can't. which we minds me of the story we're going to talk about today, which says, oh, we don't have to

enforce laws. i mean, i'm getting bored, at this point. people thinking they can decide what the law is, don't work that way in america, willie, and there are consequences to these actions. gravity returns, and the price is high. >> and the bill is coming due right now. all the way up the chain. >> bill is coming due. >> all the way to donald trump. >> you mention rudy giuliani, joe. rudy giuliani is a guy who has done whatever donald trump told him to do. first of all, he was in the white house. then at the end when he was trying to get going around the country, and sweating through his hair dye to try to overturn elections state by state. he now, according to many reports and "the new york times" as we see right there, calling donald trump saying, i can't afford all of these legal bills, can you help me out, and guess what, he's finding out something he should have found out a long time ago. a lot of people have learned loyalty with donald trump is one

way. donald trump won't pay his bills: he won't pay his own legal bills, $21 million, saying i went out and committed all of these alleged crimes, i'm a billionaire, at least i say i am, i used you, small donors to pay my bills and he will not share that money with rudy giuliani, who he professes to be his closest friend and advisers, now giuliani getting the cold shoulder from donald trump. >> and of course we saw the "new york post" headline, mika, the "new york post," a paper of record for "morning joe." do you have the post with you right now? >> i do. it's a little off topic, off this topic, anyway. >> oh, good. let's see, what is it. we've got the border wall over here. >> hold on a second. sweet jesus, tj. >> flood gates are open. >> what is is it? >> they have now completely started to ignore the yankees, which i don't want to get into.

i have been gone a little while. we're 17 games out of first place, and there's your update on the post this morning. >> don't pretend i'm so stupid that i don't know what you guys are doing, oh, we're in last place, guess what, so was sec ra -- secratariat in the kentucky derby. they are only about five games out from the wild card. they're going to win the wild card, the 28th world series and they're going to break our hearts. nobody will talk in boston about bucky anymore, they'll talk about the miracle of '23, the new york yankees winning it all. >> they didn't lose last night because they didn't play. i appreciate you pointing that out. and they are, in fact, still nine and a half games out of the wild card and absolutely reeling. it's sad. i know you're very sad about it, joe. >> all i can say is i'm glad

lemire is not here because he would jinx the whole thing and talk about it incessantly. >> along with joe, willie and me, we have u.s. special correspondent for bbc news, katty kay, doing "way too early" duties for us this week, and pulitzer prize winning columnist at "the washington post," eugene robinson. >> who does not want to talk about the washington nationals. >> and barbara mcquade. >> we don't want to talk about the nationals, joe, but i got to say that katty did a terrific job on the sports this morning. it was absolutely spot on. it was perfect. baseball, she did baseball. >> katty is perfect. >> it was great. >> when we were off camera yesterday, gene, i confessed to joe that when i'm reading the baseball, it may as well be german, and i do not speak german. i really try, i have to focus so hard, it's the hardest segment of the whole show.

honestly, if you don't know those words, you have no idea. what does that mean? i don't know what that means. anyway. >> i get it. >> i really apologize to the viewers. >> you did good. you did so good. we love having -- oh, my gosh. katty is perfection. >> that is how i feel four hours a day. >> stop it. >> it's got to be better than the midnight express effort we had at the top of the show of willie and joe in some jail in istanbul for a year and a half. >> eight minutes past the hour. it was closer to two years, but willie and i aren't counting. it was a long time ago. >> we're going to get to ken dilanian and barbara mcquade if they haven't walked off the set in just a moment, on trump's thursday surrender, but first, a number that stood out to us from the new nbc news des moines register and mediacom poll. in the survey, 41% of likely

caucus goers say they would want donald trump to continue as the leader of the gop, but an even larger number, 57%, say it's time for the republican party to find new leadership. >> you know, willie, and that's about six out of ten, according to my university of alabama bachelor of arts history major degree. that means six out of ten republicans in the iowa caucus that are likely caucus goers are saying it's time to move on. it's time to find somebody new. and yesterday we saw a clip from a group, a focus group out in iowa, and there was a lady who basically was afraid to come on the air and admit that she was moving away from donald trump. she wanted the republicans to win. she was grateful for president trump and all he did, but it was time to move away, and she had said that she was afraid to come

on the show, afraid to talk to the reporter but she had to do it because people needed to know she was going to do it. and for the first time it hit me, and mika and i have sort of seen this in our own life with our own friends who supported donald trump, it's almost like a reverse bradley effect. they've moved on. they want to win again. but they're not really comfort able admitting it especially to people who donald trump says wears horns or are enemies of the state, and all the people that donald trump has suggested that his supporters hate. so you have people quietly saying 6 out of 10 in iowa, they're ready to move on, and others quietly moving away, hoping the rest don't pick up on it, the more hard core members, and so, again, i agree with anne

seltzer, you look at those numbers. this cake is not baked yet. >> that number is sort of, to your point, anecdotally what you hear is there are hard core trump supporters who aren't going anywhere, they're unmovable. the signs are up, the flags are new for 2024. it's actually a little less probably than 41% that we see there, but there are people who go, ugh, yeah, i voted for him the first time. i'm just so tired. i'm exhausted. we're going to have to go through four trials, maybe, during a presidential election can somebody else step up. they're not thrilled with their options and the ones that will be on stage in milwaukee. we'll see in the debate if anybody steps up and emerges but that poll, that des moines register nbc news poll, if you read it, it's fascinating in its contradictions because you see that number right there, 60% almost want to move on, and yet he's got a lead of, what, 25 points or something like that.

23 points over the rest of the field, and a large percentage of the likely caucus goers there say we don't think he really committed a crime. he didn't do anything worthy of keeping him out of the white house, but we want to move on. it's hard to make sense of it other than what you're saying, maybe they don't want to say to a pollster at the des moines register that they're done with trump, but maybe they are. it's a hard one to figure out. the fact remains even with the latest numbers that we're highlighting this morning, that he is in command of the primary right now. whether he ekes out a victory or wins big in iowa, he didn't have to be on the debate stage because he's leading by such a wide margin in this primary, right now anyway. >> former president donald trump will travel to atlanta on thursday to turn himself in. after he and 18 others were indicted in a wide ranging election interference case. it's called an enterprise. trump announced the news himself

on social media. the former president will report to the fulton county jail in atlanta for booking. the county sheriff said there will be a hard lock down of the street when he arrives. district attorney fani willis has given all defendants until noon on friday to voluntarily surrender. trump's lawyers have agreed to a $200,000 bond for the case. this is for trump himself. the first time he's been made to pay a cash bond and that is just for the charges against trump. that is $100,000 higher than other known agreements for the other codefendants. trump's bond agreement also includes language not seen in the others. the order directly states the former president cannot intimidate his codefendants, witnesses, or otherwise obstruct the case in any way. >> and gene robinson, all of this is going to be playing out on thursday. the debate is going to be wednesday night. it looks like, again, donald

trump's doing everything he can to distract. he's talking about this interview that he's going to be doing on twitter, but it's going to be a four-day old interview. nobody is going to be watching that. i mean, i'm sorry, let me take that back. some people may be watching it, but a four-day old interview is not going to be news, and i just, i wonder how much it's going to take away from the actual debate, but this will. and donald trump knows that, the timing the next morning after the debate will completely smother out any news from the debate itself. and i've got to say, though, that cuts both ways. it eclipses them. you know, gene, vaughn hillyard, when he was talking to those voters in iowa, had a couple of voters saying i like donald trump, but it's time to move on. there's too much. and so they're going to see a

debate of serious people on stage the night before talking policy and the next day they're going to see donald trump, you know, getting his mug shot, and surrendering to authorities for the fourth time, and i just wonder if that doesn't make the exhaustion of those people that vaughn talked to and other voters go up even higher. >> well, you know, it would be fascinating if that sort of flips the switch or if that really has an impact, the contract we're going to see tomorrow night and thursday morning. big questions, how many people are going to tune into the debate absent donald trump? fox news is certainly upset that they got to participate. they were counting on the ratings bump. that's one thing we'll see, and then, you know, absolutely right that someone could really shine in that debate. someone could wipe the floor with the other contenders, let's say tim scott has a great night

or something like that, and the next morning, it's just gone. that news cycle has about two or three hours in it, and then it's all trump all the time, and that is a weapon that he is going to deploy throughout this campaign, his ability to draw attention, his ability to draw the television cameras and now he's got four criminal proceedings, in which to add to his repertoire of look at me, look at me. so, you know, this is going to be our year, this is what it's going to be like, trump look at me, look at me. >> katty kay, one person who is going to love how this is all setting up is chris christie, who know in a poll out yesterday, chris christie moving into second place in new hampshire ahead of desantis, and some others but chris christie is going to absolutely love

this. right now, if 60% of people in the republican party want to move on in iowa, and let's say it's only 40% around the rest o. of the country, i suspect it's probably higher. chris christie has the ability with a forceful performance to start consolidating some of those 1%, 2%, 3%. people may see him as an alternative, if he's in second place in iowa, a good bit behind donald trump, but maybe some consolidation comes there. he's going to say, hey, here we're talking about your future. tomorrow donald trump is going to be indicted for the fourth time for obsessing about his past. it's a pretty strong argument, chris christie, the former prosecutor could make. >> chris christie is going to be the only one pretty much on stage who mike pence may do it a little bit. he's going to be the only one who's going to take the fight

directly to donald trump. it's still hard to see how it gets out of the single digits he's in at the moment. do iowa voters reward him for that, do they think they still want somebody who is politically pure. the other interesting thing in the nbc news des moines register poll is how many iowans say electability is not their primary concern. what they want is somebody who represents their values, and for the moment, they still seem to think that donald trump is that person. it's going to be fascinating to see whether this double whammy, you're right, the back-to-back of the wednesday night debate followed by the thursday night arraignment. is that the moment that, you know, flips things back to normal? i have been writing a piece for the bbc, this election is like alice in wonderland, what's up is down and what's down is up. at some point, you think normal service is going to be resumed and the weights donald trump has against him might start to pull him down, and maybe voters in new hampshire will look and iowa will look at, you know, the

seriousness of the content on wednesday night, and there will be policy discussions on wednesday night, which this country desperately needs and we'll look at the arrangement on thursday morning and decide that actually donald trump is too exhausting and has too much baggage for them. he's so far ahead in the polls, it's hard to see that route. maybe it's just possible. our next guest says according to the latest polls, donald trump can't win a general election and can't lose a primary. matt lewis joins us with his latest analysis with the presidential race when "morning joe" comes right back. presidential race when "morning joe" comes right back.

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believe donald trump's claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him. 41% say they don't believe it. 8% say they're just not sure. belief in the so-called big lie is most prevalent among iowans making less than $70,000 a year with 69% of them trusting trump. 62% of iowa evangelicals and 59% of those without college degrees also believe the election was stolen. >> so, willie, we can, you know, this is the sort of thing, i don't know how much to pay attention to this. i don't want to freak anybody out at home. so please hold on to whatever you're holding on to, but there is a point in 2005 where 60% of democrats thought 9/11 was an inside job. it dissipates. all right, we get the moon landing conspiracies.

we got, you know, the jfk conspiracies. >> different time, though, with social media and technology. it's a little different, joe. >> it's different, and yet it's not different. willie knew where i was going there. i mean, the thing is, again, so 51% of republicans think that maybe the election was stolen. okay, that to me is ground noise. 90%, we got an issue going. 51%, again, the question is, again, this reverse bradley effect. you know, if you get a call, and you're in iowa, and you feel like the media has been like talking down to you your whole life, and you go, hi, i'm from new york city, do you think that the election was stolen from donald trump. or if you're from even the des moines register polling outfit, and you're ann, there's just a skepticism. so i think my point is, and willie's trying to figure out

what my point is here. >> i'm still here. >> i think the 51% is actually a lower number than i would have expected at this point in the middle of indictments from people that donald trump say are the devil coming after him, and i just think there's rising exhaustion, and at the same time, i see other polls that show, while 51% may think this, a majority of iowans, i believe i saw, said let's stop talking about the 2020 election. i'm hearing that from republicans. that's almost -- that's a 70, 75% proposition. if they say, sure, it was stolen, we'll go, let's not talk about 2020 anymore. let's talk about winning in 2024. >> yeah, no, i think you're right about that, and i think the problem is, two things, number one, donald trump is a different vessel than we had in any of those other examples that you laid out, meaning there are a lot of people in this country, a lot of republicans who took

what he says as gospel, almost literally in the poll we talked about yesterday where they believe what donald trump says more than their family and their friends or their pastor or all the people we trusted growing up, teachers and coaches, that's a guy, whatever he says goes for many people in this country. that's one thing, and then i think the other question is, what's the alternative, if it's not donald trump, and everyone who is exhausted and i agree there are a lot of republicans exhausted by donald trump r where do that enjoy. maybe it's not what we thought he was, gets a shot in milwaukee to impress some people. we'll see if the people who are exhausted can find somewhere else to go. let's talk more about that with senior columnist at the daily beast, matt lewis. your latest piece is entitled "trump voters don't believe in polls or the media, only in trump." i'll let you explain the headline a little more, and help us suss out what we're seeing in these polls which is that a lot of people don't think he committed a crime, they still

support him, and yet 60% almost in this poll in iowa say we hope somebody else emerges. >> right. so basically i looked at these three prominent polls that have happened recently. one is this ap poll that basically showed 53% of americans, not republicans, but general election voters would not vote for trump under any circumstance. then i looked at the cbs news yougov poll and the nbc news iowa "des moines register" poll, and basically what i concluded is if you believe those three polls, and that's the caveat, essentially donald trump can't win a general election, but he also can't lose a primary. and this is unusual, right, because normally if you are perceived to be unelectable in a general election, that would preclude you from winning the

primary, but of course what we've seen is that republicans, at least according to these recently polls, are not really persuadable, they're not really movable. they don't care about the electability issue. i think only 29% prize the ability to beat joe biden when it comes to making their primary decision. as you just noted, not only will they not listen to pollsters or the establishment media, they won't listen to their families as opposed to donald trump. they won't listen to their clergy, so it's really hard to imagine a scenario where donald trump, again, you know, the caveat here is if you believe the recent polling, it's hard to imagine a scenario where donald trump doesn't become the republican nominee. >> i mean, think about this. we have been hearing gene for so long that iowa voters are deeply religious, oh, they're

christian, evangelicals oh, they're the most, if you go to iowa, they love jesus so much. we have been hearing that since pat robertson won in 1988. i don't know, maybe he won. i don't remember, but we have been hearing they're so righteous. now what do we find out, they trust a four-time indicted, reality tv show host who a new york judge called a rapist, who bragged about sexually molesting women saying that it's the way it's always been and maybe that's a good thing. he doesn't know whether it's good or not. twice as many of these voters -- >> porn star. >> porn star payoff, illegal, you know, i'm talking like

illegal. now, twice as many of them basically say, we trust that guy over a minister of jesus christ. and go, gene. >> what those numbers suggest is a whole lot of people in iowa are going to hell, right. they are not going to be redeemed. >> just joking, iowa people. >> just joking. >> that is an incredible figure from that poll that they trust trump over their clergy, and it does make you wonder, like, how are you thinking of your christianity, how are you thinking of your faith, to get to that point. matt, i think you make an incredible point there. can we sort of right the story

of this election already? donald trump wins the primary, and donald trump loses the general. i mean, that seems to be what all the numbers are suggesting, is there any way the republican party can avoid this. >> well, you know, i think what joe has been talking about this morning is the possibility, right, that up until now, and i think in the last two elections, donald trump would really under perform among pollsters. people would be shy about admitting, they didn't want to admit they were going to vote for donald trump, but then they would, so the question is has that reversed now. is it possible that republican voters want to tell -- that republican voters want to tell pollsters, want to tell the media they're supporting trump, but secretly they're open to another possibility, and so this brings us, i guess, to teasing the debate on wednesday night.

this is an opportunity. donald trump will not be there, so ron desantis, who is i think clearly in second place nationally has an opportunity to, i don't want to say close the deal, but how about open the deal, to make himself a viable alternative. can he do it? i'm skeptical, but the ball's in his court. >> coming up, new reporting on the war in ukraine and the early impact of president biden's controversial decision to supply the country with u.s. made cluster munitions. "morning joe" will be right back. back let's go! guys, c'mon! mom, c'mon! mia! [ engine revving ] ♪ ♪ my favorite color is... because, it's like a family thing! [ engine revving ] ♪ ♪ made it! mom! leave running behind, behind. the new turbocharged volkswagen atlas.

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joining us now with more on this story, national security reporter for "the washington post" john hudson. john, good morning, so obviously just the very transfer of these cluster bombs and these munitions from the united states to ukraine was controversial. a good number of democrats voted against it in the defense bill. these are bombs that have been outlawed in many countries around the world, how are they being used and what is their significance on the battlefield? >> yeah, that's exactly right, this is the most controversial arms transfer of biden's presidency, so when i went to ukraine with my colleagues and went to the front lines, we wanted to learn how they're being used. they're having a important impact when it comes to the defense of ukraine. right now, the russians are pushing in northern and eastern ukraine, and when the ukrainians are firing these against russian infantry, it basically stops the assault. you have russians immediately

seeking hard cover, and it's playing an important role in helping the ukrainians preserve force power. it's also helping ukraine shoot into dense forest where they can't exactly see where their target is, and kill russian infantry that are exposed. it's also effective against unarmored vehicles and has caused a number of russian convoys to scatter and scamper in different levels of disarray. it's also having an important impact on helping the ukrainians continue the offensive and stretch it out. as you know, the ukrainians are low on artillery, and this supply is helping them beef up the amount of artillery that they have. at the same time, there are concerns about what the unexploded ordinances will do when god willing, this conflict comes to an end at some point. as you know, these bomblets can

last for years and years, and one of the artillery brigades i spoke to said there wasn't really an accounting practice in place. that obviously contradicts with what officials in kyiv and washington have said which was that the condition that the u.s. would send these cluster bombs is that they would be well accounted for, so we've got a number of different ways that these are being used, and some continuing concerns about how they might impact every day ukrainians when the war comes to an end. >> john, i mean, the reality is it's very hard for americans to keep eyes on what happens to the weapons once they cross the border and whose hands they end up on. are these cluster bombs having any impact on the mine fields that the russians have laid? my understanding is that's been one of the things that's really, you know, stalled the ukrainians in their offensive push is that the russians just had that much time to lay, you know, miles long areas with mines, and that's stopping the ukrainians

getting through that land. >> it's a great point. the minefields have been devastating to blunting the ukrainian offensive, and it's why they haven't advanced as far as they can. these we said of trenches and mines, the difficulty with cluster munitions is that they're more effective against infantry that are exposed up and around, as opposed to infantry that are burrowed in trenches. that hasn't been the main purpose and main benefit. it's been complicated. really the advantage is hitting exposed infantry, and that's why you continue to have problems with the ukrainians pushing further south and cutting that important land bridge to crimea, even though they have this large arsenal of u.s. provided cluster munitions. >> john, step back for a moment,

and just overall from your trip, has the ukrainian offensive stalled? is it making progress? will we at the end of it say ukraine took back a significant amount of its territory made progress toward cutting this land bridge or not? >> eugene, these were very difficult discussions with troops near the front lines. they are exhausted. they have been fighting for a very long time. many of them haven't had breaks in a very long time. there is very strong belief in the importance of their cause. they are defending the ukrainian homeland. but it is not having a breakthrough, and you just can't deny that that is the case. there was the hope that the ukrainian forces were going to push far south, capture towns such as melotopel, and really prevent these russian supply routes that are feeding this

invasion. eliminating the supply routes. they haven't been able to do that. the offensive is not over yet, but it is not going as far as ukrainians hoped it would at this point in time. >> national security reporter for "the washington post" john hudson, thank you very much for your reporting and insight this morning. and still ahead on "morning joe," health officials are now tracking the spread of a new highly mutated covid strain. we'll tell you where the first case was just reported in the u.s. "morning joe" will be right back. the u.s. "morning joe" will be right back

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in our time. and the youth vote could matter more than ever before. by 2024 gen z and millennials will make up more than half of the voting population, an opportunity for democrats and republicans alike, that is, if young people register and come out to vote. no one knows this better than our next guest, creator and cofounder of the nonpartisan movement i am a voter, which aims to create a cultural shift around voting and civic engagement with gen z and millennial voters. we know each other through know your value and the 30/50 summit, which we will get to. first, tell us about i am a voter and your aha moment when you thought i've got to launch

this. it's personal to you. >> very personal. thank you so much for having me. i was born in iran under an authoritarian regime. as kurdish iranian jews, it wasn't safe to be there. my family and i fled when i was around 6 years old and went to italy and eventually gained asylum in the united states through an amazing organization. we went onto live the american dream and started an as attorney and built brands around fashion, entertainment and tech. then my life completely changed. i was on leave with my first daughter and i saw the child separation at the borders and i had this incredibly visceral response. i got on a plane and went to where the camps were. i knew at that moment something was in incredibly broken.

when we first game to the united states, i was terrified. i just held my mom's hand and knew we were going to be okay. in that moment, we took their kids away from them. i couldn't understand. i started taking meetings with members of senate and congress. what can i do? they all kept saying we need more people to vote. i didn't know what to do other than try to help rebrand civic engagement. brought about 25 incredible women who worked together to launch i am a voter as a nonpartisan civic engagement. >> tell us about the success of i am a voter, how it works.

and what's the number one issue keeps you up at night when it comes to getting young people to vote in the next election? >> i think young voters are this incredibly powerful and thoughtful generation. they are the largest voting bloc america has ever had. they've been left out of the political process for far too long. i hear they're not going to show up, they're not going to vote, they don't care. i think that couldn't be further from the truth. this is a generation that cares deeply about issues. they're the most diverse generation we've ever had. they do mobilize. look at what they did when taylor swift tickets went on presale. they know how to show up. they faced a decades-long barrier to their voting rights and they still showed up in the

midterms this last cycle. we need their issues to be prioritized and we need politicians to follow through on their promises to them. we know they care about climate and gun safety and racial and economic equality. they're the ones inheriting our country. >> yeah. you have said that with the next presidential election especially that you want to make i am a voter as epic as a marvel movie. what are the strategies to do that? how do you get them to show up to vote? what are the strategies? >> when we launched i am a voter, we really did look at it as a marketing campaign for civic engagement. the people who work on this campaign are the best in brand marketing and content. we have worked with the largest corporations and brands,

influencers, creating content trying to meet voters on the platform they are on, leveraging culture in a way we know will have an impact on voters. we did an incredibly campaign with bumble where you could add a voter badge to your name, because who wants to date a nonvoter? amc theaters has people in their theaters watching films. we're going to give them civic engagement information. again, we know all the time how much consumers relate to brands and they're making decisions every day between brands. so we brought them into the process. we brought influencers. look at the turnout for "barbie" and "oppenheimer." that's the energy we want to bring into this next election.

>> how can people get involved if they want to know more? >> we have created an incredible platform that allows you to confirm the registration. we meet the companies and people all the time. creating content, engaing with voters and visiting i am a voter and volunteering to help and doing as much as you can to drive voter engagement. >> thank you so much. we're going to be hearing a lot more from you in the months to come. so enjoyed having you on with me at the 30/50 summit. you were amazing. we were talking about the power of voice and silence.

you resonated with the global diverse audience that wanted to hear more about how to communicate effectively and become successful. head to knowyourvalue.com. we will see you again soon. it is the top of the fourth hour of "morning joe," 6:00 a.m. on the west coast, 9:00 a.m. on the east. eight candidates are squaring off in the first presidential debate while donald trump is preparing to turn himself in on thursday to georgia authorities in his fourth criminal indictment. let's bring in garrett haake

with the latest. >> the political world is preparing to converge on milwaukee for that first debate. donald trump will be heading to the georgia county jail for booking the next day with the judge now setting conditions for his relief. donald trump once again poised to steal the spotlight this week from the party he seeks to lead. confirming on social media overnight that he plans to turn himself in at the fulton county jail on thursday to be booked on wide ranging charges he led a conspiracy to overturn the election in georgia. his attorneys negotiated the terms of his release in advance, including a $200,000 bond and promises he will not intimidate any codefendant, witness or victim including on social media the rnc announcing overnight

that eight candidates have met their requirements for the first debate wednesday, notably leaving mr. trump off the list after he posted over the weekend that due to his, quote, legendary poll numbers he would not be debating. >> we're excited about it. i think it will be a vigorous exchange even though donald trump will not be there. >> the former president instead recording an interview with tucker carlson, hoping to counter program the debate. governor ron desantis, mr. trump's closest rival, rallying supporters in florida and predicting on fox news some republicans will see mr. trump's debate absence as presumptuous. even as mr. trump's legal challenges grow, new polling from nbc news and "the des moines register" shows his political durability. 51% of likely caucusgoers say

they believe mr. trump's false claim that he won the 2020 election. >> i think there's still so much anger at the process. and i think he draws on that. >> lest we forget this is only one of a portfolio of cases mr. trump is dealing with, there's a new filing in the special counsel case here in washington. after mr. trump's lawyers suggest add trial date in 2026 last week, the special counsel is responding saying the former president's concerns about mountains of evidence are totally overblown and the millions of pages of what they're going to hand over to him come from his own social media or stuff his own aides and associates have said. the judge in that case is going to make a final decision on a trial date next week. >> all of this looms over tomorrow night's debate in milwaukee, where trump will not appear but eight others will. as much as those candidates

would like to talk about themselves and their agendas, a lot of the questioning is going to be about donald trump. only former new jersey governor chris christie has criticized donald trump. how do the others dance through that tomorrow night? >> christie has and so has asa hutchinson. he'll get to make those criticisms of donald trump on a bigger stage. i watched the first republican debate from 2015 over the weekend where trump was on stage for the first time with that slate of candidates. it's been a problem for eight years. these other candidates have in the figured out how to get their arms around criticizing a person who clearly understands something about how their voters think better than they do. perhaps when he's not there to defend himself, that dynamic changes a little bit.

ron desantis is going to have a big target on his back too. >> that criticism for a lot of them has been tepid and implicit. garrett haake, thank you so much. we just got some news in to us. nbc news has learned one of the codefendants in that georgia case has surrenders. scott hall, a georgia bail bondsman who was charged in the coffee county election data breach has been booked in jail, his bond set at $10,000. also expected today, john eastman, trump's former attorney, also set to turn himself in. the constitutional law professor and attorney is charged with assisting the former president with a plan to use fake electors that pledged to make trump president. he wrote that infamous memo.

he's been ordered not to speak about the case to any of his codefendants. let's bring in joyce vance and reverend al sharpton, mike barnicle back with us as well. good morning. joyce, we have one defendant turning himself in. we expect john eastman within a matter of hours to turn himself in. former president trump announced he will turn himself in on thursday. the deadline for all of the defendants in the case is friday at noon. as you look at the bond deal that was given to former president trump and some of the conditions, what did you make of it as a former prosecutor yourself and some of those conditions particularly about donald trump being ordered not to threaten any codefendants, witnesses or anyone else on social media. >> let's start with the last part of that. for a normal defendant, there's

no need to say in their bond specifically, hey, you can't violate criminal law by obstructing justice. you can't threaten witnesses. you can't intimidate your codefendants. that's implicit. that's understood. i think it's remarkable that in the case of a former president of the united states, the prosecutor felt obligated to spell it out. that suggests that fani willis believes -- and i think we can all understand this -- that there is a serious risk that donald trump will be unable to restrain himself, that he will cross the line, whether on social media or in some other way. fani willis wants to be prepared when that moment comes. she's now got a speck agreement so that if he does intimidate witnesses, do something on social media that is a threat to

the community, the agreement is specific that he can't threaten even property in the community, she can then go back to the court and ask the judge to engage in more discipline. the dollar amount is also worth noting. $200,000 for bond is consistent with an earlier rico case in fulton county. the georgia teachers cheating on tests was given a $200,000 bond in that case. most of her codefendant received five and six-figure bonds with one notable exception. a principal who sat teachers down and encouraged them not to cooperate. his bond was higher, originally set at a million dollars. this bond for trump is significant. it sends the message that fulton county seeing this as a very serious crime.

>> also that fulton county sees that they're going to treat it just like they've treated any other case. as for the ability of some of the other 19 defendants named in the fulton county indictment to post bond, according to the "new york times," trump's former personal attorney rudy giuliani has reportedly racked up more than $3 million in legal bills. the times reports giuliani has repeatedly reached out to trump for help, but the former president has so far refused to pay him for the legal work he did on his behalf. there's also a former georgia republican party official, kathy latham who acted as a fake elector following the 2020 election. she has set up an online fund-raiser with the goal of raising half a million dollars to help pay her legal bills. so far, she has raised just under $4,000. there's also attorney jenna

ellis, who is a senior legal advisor to trump's 2020 campaign. like giuliani, she also reportedly reached out to the former president for financial help in the past, but was denied. and while trump refuses to help his long-time loyalists, filings show the self-proclaimed billionaire himself has had $21 million in his own legal fees paid for by his supporters. rev, this is so trump. it is everything that everybody who knows trump knows about trump. he doesn't pay his bills. he doesn't pay anything he doesn't have to pay. i do have to ask why jenna ellis and rudy giuliani would think that trump would come to their defense and pay their legal bills. i feel a little bad for kathy latham who was probably pulled into this.

but some of these people are skilled lawyers and they knew trump was not going to pay their bills. they must have known he doesn't pay his bills. >> they had to know, especially rudy giuliani. they've known trump for years. if he won't pay basic utility guys at his buildings, what would make them think he was going to pay these large legal fees? it was absolutely unthinkable to me that they would think he would change his habits. the thing that is more disturbing to me is all 18 defendants are going to face a trial. some could be convicted and even face jail for a man. this is not about a cause or a principle. i've been arrested for marching for a cause and went to jail for it. you're going to face jail for the idolatry of a man who doesn't represent a thought, a

cause or anything other than his own self-aggrandizement. i think that is what is so crazy to me about this. all of this for a guy who just wanted to hold onto power for himself. wednesday night we're going to be debating a man, not policies, not ukraine, not affirmative action, not talking about black history being taken out in florida. they're going to spend 85% of the time talking about a man. this whole idolatry of trump may cost some of these people their freedom because they can't afford to even defend themselves. >> looking at some of the stipulations laid down in georgia against the former president, quite a few are similar to stipulations that a court would issue to john gotti,

including the last one, not limited to posts on social media or reposts of posts made by another individual on social media having to do with intimidation. given the former president's nature, it seems to me people he will be unable to prevent himself from crossing the line here. what would be the next step potentially by the georgia district attorney if he does so? >> so it's a great question, because the language that you read is sort of a self-imposed gag order. in many ways it's saying you should gag yourself. but if you don't, implicit in that statement is the threat that the court will gag trump. this is really difficult. this is not a question of treating trump differently than other defendants. the reality is he's a candidate for high political office and

he's entitled to be able to speak freely as he campaigns. but there is a line that trump cannot cross. this agreement makes the effort at setting it out. if he violates it, there is progressive discipline available. the judge could bring him into court, admonish him and raise the amount of his bond. usually we see bonds going down, not up, because there's a presumption that people are innocent until proven guilty. we try to let people remain on release pending trial in our system. if trump is a persistent violator, it's possible there could be a gag order or even revocation of his bond so that he would go into custody pending trial. the young thug racketeering case, which is still in jury selection, only one of those defendants involves a gag order.

those defendants are in custody. that would be at the high end of the spectrum here for the former president. >> as we talk about a former president, a man who wants to be president again, with all four trials potentially during an election year, and then we're going to see on stage tomorrow night the eight people who claim they want to defeat him, but won't talk about him. it's going to be hard for them to avoid those questions tomorrow night. fox has promised they'll ask plenty of questions about the indictments. how do you avoid going after donald trump? they're trying to walk this line of not alienating his supporters. how do you not criticize a man who's been indicted not just for four alleged crimes, but for

four deeply serious crimes around our democracy, our national security and other questions? >> the only way you avoid it is if you don't have any firm commitments yourself because of what he's being prosecuted for. the least they could say is that if he is guilty, he ought to go to jail and he should not be in this race if he is convicted before the race is over, because he's undermining the very principles of democracy. that's the least they could say. anything less than that, they become political accomplices to the crime. it's in the context of voting crimes. if they don't have the backbone to say that, then none of them should be on that stage. i was on that stage. i ran in 2004. you've got to take tough stands. if you're not, then you ought not be on that stage.

>> joyce vance, thank you so much for being on this morning. this is going to be quite a week. in other news, early reports appear to show southern california avoided the worst when it came to tropical storm hilary. the state has seen record rainfall in several areas as well as flooding and mudslides. but as of this morning, no deaths have been reported, and the damage hasn't been as severe as initially feared. one person died in mexico because of the storm. a wetter than usual winter in california, it has been declared free of extreme drought conditions for the first time in three years. president biden was in hawaii yesterday to survey the damage left by the maui wildfires. he met with survivors and officials and was briefed on the status of ongoing certainly efforts. this morning officials confirm

115 people have died as a result of the wildfires, but more than 800 people are still missing. experts estimate more than 2,000 buildings were damaged or destroyed and more than 2,000 acres of land were burned. dana griffin is with us. what's the latest there? >> reporter: good morning. right now there's about 15% of that burn zone that still needs to be searched. it could take several weeks. that's because officials say they have to delayer some of those buildings that are not structurally sound to search for the missing. you mentioned 850 people still unaccounted for. unfortunately the governor said some of those victims may never be found because the fire burned so hot it reduced remains to ashes. president biden's visit was met with some criticism yesterday, but also some praise from people who said they appreciated him taking the time to meet with

some of the community members. we're seeing some images here of his time on the ground. he visited that 150-year-old banyan tree. he noted it was burned, but still standing, a symbol of what the community could do. he noted the biden administration is going to be with the people as long as it takes. he noted some of the resources fema has already provided, including meals and hotel rooms for 1800 people that have been displaced. hud is working on more permanent hospital. he wanted to let people know they are going to respect the sacred land and they're going to rebuild the way the people of lahaina want the town rebuilt. he promised the government is going to be with hawaii for as long as it takes. >> one of the most beautiful places on earth and some of the most wonderful people you will meet there in lahaina.

dana, thank you so much. we're following a rescue operation under way in pakistan right now to save eight people, including six children from a malfunctioning chair lift in the north american part of the country. they've been suspended 900 feet off the ground since 9:00 p.m. yesterday. attempts to save the people have been complicated by gusty winds and fears of the helicopter rotors further destabilizing the lift. there's a new covid strain in the u.s. we'll have the latest. d strain in the u.s we'll have the latest. my cpa told me i wouldn't qualify for the erc tax refund, so i called innovation refunds. their team of independent tax attorneys

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beautiful live picture of the united states capitol at 9:24. house republicans are signaling they are getting ready for another fight as congress works to avoid a government shutdown this fall. nbc reported on a call with house republican speaker kevin mccarthy suggesting a stop-gap funding bill may be necessary to avoid the shutdown. yesterday members of the house freedom caucus said they will not support a stopgap bill unless they get what they want. the house freedom caucus is demanding more funding for border enforcement, cuts to the fbi and department of justice and an end to so-called woke policies at the department of defense. some health news now. a listeria outbreak in tacoma, washington, is being linked to three deaths . the bacteria was found in the

restaurant's milk shakes after the machines weren't cleaned properly. more than six people were hospitalized with infections. the fda has approved the first vaccine for pregnant women to protect their newborns against rsv for the first months. it allows mothers to produce the necessary antiboies that can transfer to the fetus. it's expected to be signed off on sometime in early october. rsv causes mild cold-like symptoms for most people, but can be dangerous for babies and older adults who are more likely to develop serious illness and require hospitalization. the virus is the leading cause

of infant hospitalizations and kills as many as 300 children under 5 every year. and the world health organization and the cdc are tracking a new highly mutated strain of coronavirus. seven cases have been detected including one in michigan. health officials say the person there is an older adult with mild symptoms. it's not yet known what risks this covid mutation poses to the public, but officials say it may be similar to the omicron variant, which became dominant last fall. willie, i'm hearing of a number of people i know on the east coast who have covid. >> we don't want that coming back. still ahead, we will talk to world famous gambler billy walters. he's out with a new book. it includes that claim that a

famous golfer bet nearly a billion dollars over the years. a billion dollars over the years

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sunrise over los angeles at 6:32 a.m. on the west coast. welcome back to "morning joe." it's half past the hour. which books are and are not allowed in school libraries across the country? it's become a fierce topic of recent debate. supporters of the restrictions say they are necessary to keep inappropriate content away from children, while critics argue the laws amount to modern day book banning.

adding to the issue, guidelines for what is and isn't allowed can be vague and varies from school district to school district. one iowa school used chatgpt to help them comply with a new state law to remove books with sexual content from libraries. in ft. worth, texas, all school libraries remain closed while titles are reviewed while a new state law goes into effect september 1st. ali velshi was prompted to create the velshi banned book club, aimed to draw attention to books that have faced controversy and restrictions at various educational institutions. the series is now launching as a stand-alone podcast this week. ali, this issue is so

frustrating on so many levels, especially since a lot of kids can -- anyhow. let's just not even go there. >> it's a good point. your point is correct. you don't get "1619" in a library, but you can get it on your phone. all i remember from being a kid is if you try and keep it away from me, it's the only thing i'm going for. >> exactly. there's a whole generation that has been completely thrown off by phones, google, what they can find on google, youtube and on social media. we'll try and put that aside and just talk about books being banned off shelves of libraries. what's the impact? tell us about the podcast.

>> we started this when the "1619" project came out. i remember talking about this years ago. this number 1619 meant nothing to me. i came away from that discussion thinking now i know something i didn't know. suddenly all across the country everybody's up in arms act the fact that you're erasing history, but none of that is true. we found there are three reasons books get banned, the author, the words in the book or the subject matter. sometimes it's all three. for all of history for the last 500 years they've been banning books for the same reason, including the bible when it was first printed in english because the catholic church didn't want people to access the bible themselves. to this point about kids reading things that are inappropriate or dangerous, every time i

interview a person who says i can't have a book reading about gay kids when my kid is 8 years old. the author says, sure, this isn't for 8-year-old kids. this is for teenagers. >> everybody reads the book like a good book club. unlike the book, there are no drinks served. >> we read these books. most book banners don't read the books. it's a form letter that gets sent in. mika was talking about using chatgpt to find sexual references. chaucer gets banned for that, shakespeare and others get banned for that. there's dirty words in every book. read the book.

our members e-mail us and tell us what they thought about the book. not everything that is banned is beloved. it's just important. >> you have libraries shutting down while they review books. in texas, they're just closing libraries until they can figure out what's going on, which is insane. it's real. it's happening now. >> it's insane. i think it shows where we have become so polarized. but i think that the real value of what ali is doing is that people are not learning about other people. we're doing this big march saturday with labor leaders, black leaders, jewish leaders and all. in the meetings, it is amazing to me how much many of us don't know about the others' feeling of exploitation or oppression.

so everybody stays in their silo. i know why blacks are going to march saturday, dr. king 60 years ago. but why are jews and others? because we don't read growing up, we don't branch out of our areas. >> these books make it easy to learn about other people. >> right, like with 1619. if you ban books, how will they ever know? >> it's interesting to me in this discussion about book bannings in elementary schools and high schools largely is the fact that if you talk to parents, their biggest fear isn't what's in a book in their library in a school, it's school shootings. >> that is correct. >> so the book banning people are triggered clearly by

politics rather than by any sense of preventing children from reading ""to kill a mockingbird". >> that's right. >> so how many books do you figure have to do with race? >> the overwhelming majority. so the main themes that tend to get books banned are race, sexual assault, and then to some degree history, mostly black history, but things like 1619. we have done a couple of books on school shootings. art speegleman's mouse banned in some places about the holocaust. george takai's book about japanese internment camps, banned. they think that's anti-american. it could be the beauty of it.

to your point, the thing most people fear is their kid getting shot in school. if you're really worried about your kid's safety, that's where you should got, not banning books. >> the new podcast is called "velshi banned look club" this thursday is two new episodes. great to see you. watch "velshi" 10:00 a.m. weekends here. coming up, one of the most successful and controversial sports betters of all time billy walters joins live in the studio. in the studio i'm saving with liberty mutual, mom. they customize your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. you could save $700 dollars just by switching. ooooh, let me put a reminder on my phone. on the top of the pile! oh. only pay for what you need.

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you were right. it's not enough to have talent. you've got to have character too. >> i sure got character now. picked it up in a hotel room in louisville. >> that's paul newman as fast eddie in "the hustler." a real gambler named billy walter says he started hustling pool at a child. he went on to have a win streak making him one of the most successful sports gamblers of all time. that ended in 2017 when walters was found guilty of insider trading and sentenced to five years in prison. it's all explained in the book "gambler." billy walters joins us now in

studio. thank you for being here. tell us what prompted you to write this book, why you thought this was an important time to get your story and message about sports gambling out. >> there are a number of things that prompted me to write the book. when i was a younger man, i suffered with addiction. i had issued in my life. at one time i was addicted to gambling. fortunately i was able to overcome it and turn it into positive for me. my daughter while i was in prison committed suicide. there were a number of things that led to me being in prison. i knew then i had to write this book. sports betting is legal in the majority of states in the united states. from my perspective, it's a dream come true, because back in the early '80s when i was a sports better, i was indicted four times for betting on

sports. i went to court and fortunately i was exonerated, because it was misunderstood. to see it legalized today where you can make a bet legally in the comfort of your home, something that creates jobs, the people in the industry are good people, you can get paid. i'm excited about that. on the other hand, i'm also concerned. so i wanted to write the book and share my past and my concerns. i wanted to include the encyclopedia of sports betting. the average sports better has little or no chance to win. by following some basic principles, you've got a fighting chance, but you're still probably going to lose your money. if you approach sports betting and set aside a certain amount

of money you can afford to invest and you look at it as recreation, it could be really good. on the other hand, if you approach it as something to get rich quick with, i think you could potentially get in trouble. i did and i have and i wanted to share that. >> a 30-year win streak does not happen to most sports betters. what is your concern about laying out some rules and encouraging people to get into it when you know most of them don't win and some end up in bankruptcy? do you worry about encouraging people to gamble? >> i'm not encouraging people to gamble. there's been sports betting for over 100 years. this was taking place prior to the legalization. we have the same issues that you could potentially have today. the difference is with sports

betting, if the industry carries out their responsibility and they monitor it and people having addiction issues, if they make an honest effort to protect that, then i think overall it can be good. like anything, though, whether it be drugs or alcohol or anything else, if it's done in moderation, i think you're okay. the trouble we all run into is when things aren't done in moderation and it becomes something that's controlling you. then you no longer have control over it. >> billy, i think you would agree we are a nation filled with addictive gamblers. you can stand in line at a 7-eleven seeing somebody with food stamps in one hand, buying lottery tickets. sports gambling i have a bit of trouble dealing with. in any major league baseball locker room, there's a sign prohibiting gambling.

it has to do with the 1919 chicago white sox and the world series supposedly being fixed that year. these are chronically competitive people, the athletes in sports. do you think it's inevitable that at some point some major league baseball player, some professional football player is going to get grabbed for illegally gambling on his own team or whatever? >> well, for sure. we had that in the past. when sports betting was illegal, the thing about sports betting, it is extremely transparent. not like wall street. it is impossible to, you know, to monitor insider trading. the good thing about sports betting, it is a small market. it is a much smaller market than most people realize, and because of that, if someone goes in and they bet significant amounts of money, it raises eyebrows immediately. and if you see things out of the ordinary, every sports scandal

that has been uncovered, regarding sports, was uncovered by either gamblers, sports betters or the gaming industry. the integrity of sports is paramount to anybody who is a better or anybody who is in the gaming industry. like i said, it is easy to identify those things. the arizona state basketball scandal, i'll give you an example. i was in las vegas, this group of guys came in from arizona, they went to the casinos, bet on arizona, i took the other side because based upon my numbered. i lost the game by, like, 15 points. came back second time, did the same thing, i bet again against them, but i cut my bet back in half. the third time they came back, i didn't bet, i found it, i saw what was going on. i called the nevada state gaming control board and reported it

and tim donagy, the nba referee, the good news is it is much easier, but back to what you said in regards to the leagues, the ncaa, professional sports leagues, the kids in college are kids and as you noted, everyone is competitive. they want to bet on themselves, okay. the ncaa has a huge responsibility here in not only sitting down and educating these young men and women, but more importantly they have to do that on a continual basis. same thing with professional sports. if that's done, i think once they understand the -- the potential, you know, fallout of sorts as far as they're concerned and what they're doing, but could we have a scandal, could we have somebody where -- undoubtedly. but, again, legalized sports betting and you had scandals before and you're going to have scandals going forward whether that's legalized or not.

i think you got a much better opportunity to identify with legalized sports betting. >> billy, your book made headlines around the world after an except was published by the fire pit collective, and provided detailed look at gambling habits of golf icon phil mickelson. including claims mickelson wagered more than $8 billion on sports in the last three decades and tried to place a bet on the 2012 ryder cup while playing for team usa citing betting records, other sources, billy writes from 2010 to 2014 alone mickelson made more than 850 bets of $220,000 and more than 1,000 bets of $110,000 during a 20-year period starting in the mid'90s,he ahad losses of more than $100 million.

on the phone call, you write, have you lost your blanking mind? i told him. don't you remember what happened to pete rose, the former cincinnati reds manager, banned from baseball for betting on his own team. you're seen as a modern day arnold palmer, you would risk it all for this? i want no part of it, end quote. responding to the claims in the book, mickelson said on social media he never bet on the ryder cup adding in part, while it is well known i always enjoy a friendly wager on the course, i would never undermine the integrity of the game. is it your understanding that mickelson made the bet on the ryder cup or that he attempted to make the bet on the ryder cup? >> it is in the book. i made it very clear that he attempted to make the bet.aid h. so his statement really doesn't disagree with what i've said. it is kind of an artful answer, he never made the bet, but i never alleged he made the bet anyway. >> a billion dollars, i think

that number jumped out at people, that anybody would have a billion dollars to gamble. he was very open, he had an addiction to gambling, he struggled with it and is working on it. how did you have such access to the numbers? what was your relationship like with phil mickelson? >> we had a five-year betting relationship, a business relationship, we became friends, friends for eight years. phil's only a small part of my book, two chapters of 28. i had to include him in the book in order to tell the story about my incarceration, me being convicted, going to prison, things such as that. that's the only reason phil is in the book, no other reason. anything else regards to phil's personal life or anything else, there is none of that in the book. but our relationship, what it really boiled down to is i thought we had become friends. and when the insider investigation was going on, phil had been interviewed by the fbi on two occasions. he had denied emphatically i had

ever given him insider information. okay. when it came time to go to trial in the southern district of new york, he told us he would come forward and testify. and in the 11th hour, his attorneys told our attorneys, we called him, he would take the fifth amendment, he wouldn't come. we couldn't call him. the government wasn't going to call him, he knew what he was going to say. bottom line is there was mistakes made. i should have testified at my own trial, i didn't. i had 31 months to think about that. but in regards to the case itself, there was one person who testified against me who had no credibility. we had destroyed his credibility. if phil had came forward and testified and told the truth as he had previously told the fbi, i don't think i would have ever gone to prison and if i had never gone to prison, i think my daughter would be alive today. >> let me ask you this, billy. when somebody puts the book down, what do you hope they walk away with? what is the real reason you want

people to read this book? >> i want people, reverend, to understand that they got an issue in life, whether it an addiction or whatever they're faced in life, if -- you don't -- you don't need to give up. you can fight, you can get through it. but my experience in going to prison or whatever really opened my eyes about what prison was. i went into prison, i was lucky. i had resources, i had friends. i mentored several men in prison. and when i got into really how it affected them and their lives and things such as that, it was to me it was just devastating to me and it still bothers me today. >> the new book is fascinating. it is titled "gambler: secrets from a life at risk," well worth the read. billy walters, nice to meet you. thank you for being here. >> thank you, i appreciate being here. >> that does it for us this morning. ana cabrera picks up the coverage in two minutes. morning. ana cabrera picks up the coverage in two minutes.

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of his bond. we're live in atlanta. plus, the rest of the gop field prepares to take the debate stage tomorrow. what will the first republican debate look like without the front-runner? also ahead, president biden sees theft