burning. they'll want credit, then set up a gofundme for what happened. this is disingenuous. anyone who says we'll finish off 12 appropriations bills between now and next saturday is hallucinating. >> let's get the cr so we can stop the cr. it is like telling a crack addict, we'll give you more crack to keep you off of crack. it doesn't work. >> two republicans on views on whether congress can prevent a shutdown. we'll have the latest on capitol hill on the contentious negotiations there as lawmakers have less than a week to get a deal done. meanwhile, democrats are cautiously commenting on the corruption allegations against senator bob menendez after federal agents say they found piles of cash hidden in his home. >> how cautious do you have to be on this one?

how cautious do you have to be? >> come on. >> john fetterman saying he needs to get out. nobody else is. >> nope. >> huh. >> that's a fair assessment so far. >> piles of cash. new polling on a hypothetical biden/trump rematch. how people people about biden's age and trump's legal issues. also, an update on the auto expanding to more sites. the union is expected to get high-profile supporters on the picket lines this week. good morning. welcome to "morning joe." it's monday, everybody. time to get up. september 25th. for our jewish friends observing yom kippur, we wish you a meaningful and easy fast. with us this morning, we have u.s. special correspondent for bbc news, katty kay. president of the national action network and host of msnbc's "politics nation," reverend al sharpton, and founder of the conservative website, the bulwark, charlie sykes.

before we get to politics, we have developing news overnight. after nearly 150 days, a significant turning point in the months' long writers strike that brought hollywood to a halt. as of yesterday, major screenwriters and studios reached a deal to end the historic strike. the writers guild of america is closer to the finish line after five straight days of negotiation. this new development suspended picketing immediately. details of the agreement are expected to be announced in the next few days. at that point, the guild will vote on whether to accept the deal, which includes higher base compensation, increased royalties, and stricter protections against artificial intelligence. that was a real sticking point. the first batch of shows you'll likely see back on the air are the daytime and late night programs. the move would relieve some pressure on hosts who were

criticized for announcing plans of a return before these strikes were resolved. as for hollywood actors, they're still on the picket lines and will continue their strike until their union, sag-aftra, reaches a deal with studios. we'll be following that, as well. >> great news. we have major new polling in politics this morning. >> crazy new polling. >> yeah. >> ten points apart, the two polls that are out. yeah, let's talk about it. >> well, the new polling from nbc news shows that president joe biden and former president donald trump are deadlocked in a hypothetical 2024 election matchup. according to the latest survey, both biden and trump earned 46% of support in a potential rematch of the 2020 contest. 74% of registered voters say they have major or moderate concerns about the current president's age and mental fitness. for trump, who is just three years younger than biden, that

number is 27 points lower at 47%. 62% of voters say they have concerns about trump's legal problems, but 60% say they have concerned about biden's awareness or involvement in his son's business dealings, which is the subject of an impeachment inquiry in the republican-led house. then the other new poll, this one from abc news and "the washington post," has trump leading biden by nine points in a 2024 election matchup. in this survey, the former president leads the current one 51% to 42% among all adults. "the washington post" noted that this poll is likely an outlier compared to ones taken by other groups, but it is consistent with an abc news/"washington post" poll of the same question from earlier this year. in this latest poll, 74% say biden is too old for a second term, versus 50% who say trump

is too old for a second term. biden also faced his negative ratings on other key issues, as well. just 47% approve of his overall job performance compared to 52% who disapprove. biden's approval is even lower at 30% for his handling of the economy. and at 20% for his handling of the situation at the southern border. let's bring in white house reporter for "the washington post," tyler pager, and nbc news presidential historian, michael beschloss. good to have you both this morning. >> i'm looking at the polls, mika. let's talk among ourselves before we bring the guests in. we've talked about this a bit through the years about joe biden. >> yeah. >> i think it was yesterday evening, mark halperin's newsletter, where there are different takes on it. >> uh-huh. >> i want to read you one take.

>> okay. >> it's pretty -- it's pretty consistent from, i guess, one of his experts. and think about this. i can show you one expert after another mocking and ridiculing joe biden, the democrats, for their strategy leading up to the 2022 midterm. the mockery for him talking about democracy and abortion was over the top. you should have heard them -- and i'm not going to say people's names here -- the so-called truth tellers, they made fools of themselves mocking democrats and joe biden and, as always, there was no blowback for underestimating biden. they were proven wrong. the irony of people attacking the press for not telling the truth and then willfully being blind to their predictions in 2020 and 2022 is pretty thick. people said biden was dead in the water after iowa, after new hampshire, and the open mockery was over the top. after the 2020 campaign, it was

over the top, telling of doom on election night. over the top, the tales of doom the next two years. but no one is held accountable for underestimating joe biden these past few years. nobody. and the people that look -- and i must say, the people you look to as truth tellers are at the top of that list. they were wrong about biden then. they are wrong about biden now. they are wrong about biden far more than they are right. from trumpers to progressives to people who have made a lot of money in podcasts and newsletters being, quote, truth tellers, they've been dead wrong about biden at the polls and dead wrong about biden hammering out bipartisan legislation for three straight years. but no accountability because they are truth tellers. mika, it's true. i mean, you know, remember after iowa. >> yeah. >> he was dead. remember after new hampshire? >> mm-hmm.

>> mocked, ridiculed, dead. after nevada, there is no way he can come back. went to south carolina, wins the nomination. we heard the same thing, he was too old. he is living in his basement. he can't get out of his basement. he is going to lose. then election night, oh, well, trump is going to win this state and that state, and now things -- wrong. progressives as well as trumpers, wrong for two years about bipartisan legislation. i'm just telling you, maybe these polls are right. well, they're not right. it's not nine points. "morning joe" betting syndicate will take all of your bets right now. like, if you want to take the plus nine on joe biden, yeah, no. biden isn't going to lose by nine points. there's a close race, and there are warning signs there. i will say, though, i'm a little tired of it. i'm a little tired of three years hearing about how joe biden is going to get crushed. he's going to get crushed in 2020. he and the democrats are going to get crushed in 2022.

there's going to be a red wave. there's no way he can pass bipartisan legislation. he passes more than anybody this century. it just keeps going on and on. >> there's a bunch of things at play. to jump on what you're saying, if the truth tellers would say, "you know, the polls don't look good, but we've been here before. let me give some context historically. look what happened the last time he was underestimated." also, in terms of his age, look what president biden is doing. go through his schedule. look what he has accomplished, list them. then talk about a man his age and what he is able to do at his age, since age is relative. as for donald trump, i think that there has got to be a point where if you're an organization that works around debating the issues and following the truth, i don't know why there are extensive interviews with this man when he cannot even admit he

lost the election. like, that would be the end of any interview anywhere, or it should be. instead, he pontificates and rolls over people with lies, and people continue to put him on as if he is a truth teller. >> you look at -- >> he's not a truth teller. >> look at jonathan swan, the way he did it. savannah guthrie, other people who do it. >> at this point, we know. >> but the lying, it continues on. michael beschloss, i don't know what's going to happen. in '79, the poll was right, and president kennedy served eight years. >> right. >> it is early. not quite as early as it was, but i want to go back to this joe biden underestimation thing. because we never go back. nobody ever looks at the

headlines, at the smart takes of the, quote, truth tellers, the media's bias and they won't say the truth about biden. the media is bias. they won't say the truth about this. and biden always underestimated, entire life mocked and ridiculed, yet he keeps winning. i saw this poll, the nine points, i saw it, and i started laughing out loud. >> i did, too. >> put it down and went out and had my sunday morning walk. because it's a joke. >> that was the proper reaction, and i saw it the same way. joe, you were an elected new congressman in 1995. how many people you talk to felt there was a decent chance that the next year, bill clinton would be re-elected president by a substantial majority? as you remember, a lot of people were saying he lost congress in 1994. this is a lame duck president. he was even asked at a press

conference, are you relevant? yet, he defeated bob dole the next year by a substantial number. ronald reagan, the year before he ran for re-election, the recession was still on. his numbers were down. there wasn't much suggestion someone would run against him within the republican party, but the numbers were not great. walter mondale, the chief front runner on the democratic side, was full of optimism with some reason. then you'll remember barack obama most recently, 2011. i remember hearing in public and also talking to some people on the obama white house staff, they in the fall of 2011, exactly the same point in this cycle, were very worried that obama could not make it for a second term. unemployment was still high. his numbers were not particularly great. nor were his approval numbers. they were saying, you know, perhaps this is a case where obama is a one-term president. all i'm saying is, this is

something that is almost built in to polling of incumbent presidents. absolutely agree, this is going to be an election that goes down to the wire. deeply divided country. may be additionally complicated because of third-party candidates, but i'd not take very much of this very seriously right now. >> charlie sykes, you're in one of the swingiest of the swing states, wisconsin right now. curious your take on the polling. >> obviously, "the washington post" poll, the abc poll is fueled for bedwetting, but let's think about the last three days, where we're at here. donald trump mocked a disabled veteran, called for the execution of general mark milley, has called for the complete shutdown of the government unless they defund the prosecutions against him, asked for all senate republicans to resign over the menendez case, and, you know, he is

talking about using government power to retaliate and shut down nbc for criticizing him. yet, we look at this poll, and we're supposed to think that he's got a reasonable shot to win the presidency. of course, he does. look, that abc poll is an outlier. you look at the numbers of youth voters, and it tells you, no, there's no way donald trump is winning the youth vote. this is not to be taken seriously. but the warning signs are out there. the nbc poll, i think, underlines, along with other polls, this is going to be a tight race. it is going to be a close race, as have all our presidential races in recent years. it is going to come down to some swing states, but this notion that, somehow, there is no such thing as political gravity anymore is kind of fanciful. because donald trump is out there reminding americans as loudly as possible that he is thoroughly dangerous and deranged. at some point, i think that is going to get a little bit of traction. this is the season where you're

firing blanks. you can say that, yeah, joe biden is too old or i'm not enthusiastic about him. but a year from now, we're going to be faced very directly with the choice, are we going to put donald trump back into the white house again? >> people aren't focused. if will come as a shock to a lot of people watching this show, but i had -- i talked to a friend, college graduate, yesterday, who asked me about politics. i don't follow it a whole lot. i need to get focused. i said, what do you want to know? they told me, i hear ron desantis may be running. is he going to run? so many people are not focused on the things that we talk about for four hours a day. you're right, when they start focusing -- and i said, no, i don't think ron desantis is running, by the way. i don't think it'll work out. but when they start focusing,

you're right, there are going to be a lot of people asking a lot of questions about, you know, do i really want to vote for a guy who is calling for the execution of this? all the things you talked about. i have to say, even the democrats i talked to yesterday who shared my view, that it was no time for bedwetting, they need to take a breath and enjoy their sunday as long as they weren't in the middle of the tropical storm in the northeast. they did, though, there is a common refrain even among those who think joe biden can win, and that is this bidenomics message is not working. they need to stop trying to convince people how great the economy is, when the people aren't buying how great the economy is. biden needs to roll up his sleeves and pound donald trump head on. i think that was a biggest takeaway. even from people who still think joe biden is going to win this election and then donald trump

is, the end of the day, won't be able to carry votes. they're like, get off bidenomics. it's not working. you need to get down to where the voters are and start punching back as hard as he is hitting you. >> that is a big concern from democrats across the board. even white house officials, feeling a frustration that the message of bidenomics is not breaking through. across the polls, the economy is consistently one of the issues that trump outranks biden in terms of his handling of it. i think one of the frustrations for people inside the white house that i speak with is that there are some positive economic indicators, lower unemployment, you know, jobs being added each month, certain sectors coming back strong, continuing from this recovery, from the pandemic, but biden not getting credit. there is a disconnect between the message sometimes the white house is trying to sell and the lived experience and the reality for americans across the

country. but i do think, joe, your earlier point about this frustration within biden's inner circle, him consistently being underestimated, is what is driving a lot of the messaging and the thinking from inside the white house. a lot of those people lived through those primaries, those election nights, and they feel that the press, the pundits, underestimate joe biden and this time is no different. however, there are a lot of democrats that continue to say that they're worried about joe biden and his ability to defeat donald trump. they're concerned about what happened in 2016. the democrats just rallied around one candidate. some people want some competition for joe biden. he is obviously not gotten that up to this point. how he returns to the kramer when he really needs to go head-to-head against donald trump, there are these persistent concerns about age, i think that is a real driving factor for a lot of democrats

who are getting increasingly more nervous about hiss ability to defeat donald trump again. >> democrats need to get behind joe biden because he has performed well for them. so far, looking around here, haven't seen anyone else who has beaten donald trump. unless you want to be that democrat that jumps in and then risks losing to trump, good luck to you. but i'd say get behind him because this doesn't help. within the administration, there is a takeaway from these polls. there is a big takeaway. focus his schedule and make sure everything he does means something. this man works harder than donald trump has ever in a day in his life, so it's not like there is even a comparison. make sure every appearance he has means something. reverend al, you know, they seem to be doing that in the decision to go to detroit, i believe tomorrow. >> they are going to detroit tomorrow. first sitting president to join a picket line. i think that is the step in the

right direction of showing the contrast between donald trump. also, they need to take the age question head-on. president biden should say that trump is only three years younger than me. so what are we talking about? who sounds like they're old and out of it? somebody calling for the execution of general milley or someone that is trying to deal with these issues? >> right. >> and i might remind people, in the democratic primaries in 2020, the youth candidate was bernie sanders, who years older than joe biden. i didn't hear anyone asking bernie sanders about his age, while young progressives were rallying around him. take the issue head on, take it off the table, then get to the record you set. compare the economy under me, compare it under trump. unemployment was almost double. i think you can win that debate if you have the right debate.

>> charlie mentioned mark milley. here is what was said about mark milley after "the atlantic" profiled milley, where he detailed how he had to protect the constitution from the former president. the revolutions coming days before milley is set to retire as the country's top military officer. trump spent friday intensifying his aac, denouncing milley for the u.s. troop withdrawal agnst afghanistan while taking on milley's record, suggesting the general would have been put to death for the communications with china. the communications seem to be where milley called his counterpart after trump lost his 2020 election to say he would warn china should trump decide to launch a military attack. meanwhile, in the same "atlantic" piece, milley

recounted an instance in 2019 where trump reportedly told him that a wounded soldier should be banned from public appearances. at the ceremony, wounded army captain villa, who suffered multiple injuries, including losing a leg in an ied attack in afghanistan and two heart attacks, saying, "god bless america." milley said trump asked him afterward why he brought, quote, people like that to the white house. >> that is in line with, obviously, what we also heard from other generals. >> that's literally sick. >> who worked with donald trump. >> he is a sick man. >> it is also sick, of course, that, you know, he said that people who died in wars were losers. i mean, this is what he's done. katty kay, of course, it begs the question, these polls suggest that, like, half of america is supporting a guy who says this about wounded warriors, who says he wants to

terminate the constitution. >> cruel, sick and corrupt. >> who says the chairman of the joint chiefs should have been executed for telling china we're not going to attack them, just not to worry about it. that steals nuclear secrets, that steals war plans for invasions of iran, who a judge in new york state says that he raped a woman. you can go on and on and on. this is what we're dealing with, though. i will say, for those democrats who are concerned about political strategy, when you're running against that -- >> focus on that. >> -- i'm not sure you should be talking so much about gdp growth rates. let nerds like me do that. >> or your candidate's age. >> i'm not so sure you should be talking about, you know -- trying to convince people how well the economy is doing in their lives when they're not buying that. instead, talk about what you're running against. i think, again, that's what i'm

hearing from democrats in washington. >> yeah. look, the white house has been super careful about not wanting joe biden to talk about the legal cases, the president talk about the legal cases, and that's understandable. he is trying to make a distinction between the previous administration and his own administration and give merrick garland all the autonomy the doj is rightly due, but there is plenty of material there. when you look at these polls, there's also plenty of wiggle room, it seems, within still the republican party. there are 35% of republicans who are die hard trump supporters, but that's a lot left who are prepared to take a second look at another candidate, or would seem to be prepared to take a second look at a candidate for all those reasons. we've all had the conversations with people in the pentagon and the military who were dismayed when the first reports came out about the kinds of things donald trump said to john kelly about his son, who had died, and why do people give their lives. i don't understand it.

or john mccain being taken prisoner of war. for the die hard of trump supporters, that makes no difference. they love him anyway. but there are the republicans prepared to look somewhere else. but this primary season doesn't seem to have produced a viable, yet, alternative candidate to donald trump. we're looking, again, at the trump/biden matchup, which polls suggest many americans feel discouraged by. on the economy, i think you're right. you know, the biggest threat, i would have thought, to joe biden at the moment is not so much the age question but the federal reserve saying they're going to keep interest rates high for the next two years. potentially the auto workers' strike. there are economic clouds on the horizon that could be damaging to the president. i think he's got to be careful to tie himself just to the message of bidenomics. >> exactly. a lot of economists now believing that interest rates are going to continue up into next year, the election season. michael beschloss, before we let you go, i'd love to hear what your read is.

obviously, somebody who has closely followed american history through the years. what your take is on, if you agree with the polls, we have a deadlocked race between joe biden and a guy who is talking about the execution of chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, who talks about terminating the constitution, shared nuclear secrets. what is your best explanation to date of that? we can't stop asking ourselves enough, why so many americans would continue to support somebody that is calling for the termination of the constitution, stealing nuclear secrets, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. >> you couldn't be more right. you know, in the end, a year from now, what is going to be important about this election, whatever happens, is if it is biden versus trump, you're going to have one candidate who loves democrat, who has been an

effective leader in all sorts of ways, for more than half a century. that's joe biden. on the other side, you're going to have donald trump, who this is not a hidden plan, he has told us if he is elected, he is going to institute a presidential dictatorship. he is going to suspend the rule of law by ending an independent department of justice. he's going to suspend an military under civilian control with professional soldiers by saying he's going to have not a mark milley but someone in the defense department and someone as secretary of defense who will follow his orders. if it's biden versus trump, this is going to be a choice between democracy or dictatorship. if people vote in this election on any other basis, they're going to be making an extremely dangerous mistake. >> let me add two more things to that list, off the top of my

head. he already said he's going to start arresting democrats. he also said he was going to take over basically the ability to shut down a television station. he'd be the guy who would take all that power into the white house, deciding what tv stations could be on and what couldn't be on. >> the dangers are endless of a donald trump presidency. i think that -- biden, bidenomics, along with a long list of accomplishments, whether it's the chips act, the inflation reduction act, everything else he's done, even trying to retain the right to abortion and health care for women and efforts on that front, as well as, overall in the world, the safety of the world and galvanizing and uniting nato

and creating a space for ukraine to have a chance at winning against tyrants, and that's ultimately for us. all that can be mentioned, but as an aside, then focus on the alternative, which is basically a four-time indicted alleged -- actually, found liable of sexual assault and a judge called rapist. somebody who would take dirt from a foreign leader for a political rival. somebody who has sex with a porn star and paid her off. this is your alternative to lead america. and joe biden and his team can focus on the stuff trump has put out there. he says he took the documents, that he took nuclear secrets, that he says they were his. there are millions of things they can focus on that are already out there in the public domain because they came out of trump's mouth. use it. use it.

>> yeah, they need to. again, bidenomics message is not working. historian michael beschloss, thank you so much for being with us. "washington post"'s tyler pager, thank you so much, as well. we greatly appreciate it. still ahead on "morning joe," the biden administration is preparing government agencies for potential shutdown as house republicans remain at odds on the spending deal. we'll have the latest attend of the funding deadline. plus, senator bob menendez is receiving mixed messages from fellow democrats about whether he should resign in the wake of federal corruption charges. we'll show you what his colleagues are saying. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. (vo) in three seconds, janice will win a speedboat. (woman) bingo! i'm moving to the lake. gotta sell the house. (vo) ooh! that's a lot of work. (woman) ooh! (vo) don't worry. skip the hassels and sell directly to opendoor. (woman) bingo. (vo) get your competitive offer at opendoor dot com.

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34 past the hour. welcome back to "morning joe." democratic senator bob menendez of new jersey is expected to

hold a press conference today to address the federal charges he faces as the growing calls for him to step down are met with some hesitation. democratic senator john fetterman of pennsylvania was the first to call for menendez to step down over the weekend. releaing a statement that reads in part, quote, senator menendez should resign. he is entitled to the presumption of innocence, but he cannot continue to wield influence over a national policy, especially given the serious and spe nature of the allegations. menendez also fes calls to resign from democrats in his home state, including governor phil rphy, and representative andy kim, who has announced plans to challenge menendez in the 2024 primary for his senate seat. senator menendez released a statement friday that reads in part, quote, those who believe in justice believe in innocence until proven guilty. i intend tonue to fight

for the people of new jersey with the same success that i've had for the past five decades. he added, i'm not going anywhere. some democrats, like illinois senator dick durbin yesterday, were more reluctant to call on menendez to step down. >> this is a very serious charge. there's no question about it. but it bears reminding us what i said about the indictments against donald trump, equally serious charges. these are, in fact, indictments that have to be proven under the rule of law. the person who is accused is entitled to the presumption of innocence, and it is the responsibility of the government to prove the case. i said that about donald trump. i'll say the same thing about bob menendez. in terms of resignation, that is a decision to be made by senator menendez and the people of new jersey. >> senator menendez and his wife, nadine, were indicted on federal charges friday that include conspiracy to commit

bribery. according to the indictment, menendez allegedly used his position to enrich three new jersey businessmen and benefit the egyptian government. during a search of the senator's home, investigators say they found gold bars and over $480,000 in cash, much of it stuffed into envelopes and hidden in clothing. senator menendez says he is confident he will be cleared on the charges. he and his wife are expected to appear in federal court on wednesday. >> nbc news correspondent ali vitali. thank you so much. it's surprising to at least me that there's only been one democratic senator calling for his resignation, especially considering his past problems with past indictments. >> yeah. exactly right. i mean, i covered his last election cycle in new jersey, and there was concern on the ground from democratic voters that i spoke to, but, largely,

this idea of alleged corruption, for them at least at this point, was baked into the cake. i do think that maybe pressure could ratchet up once lawmakers are back in town. the fact you've got senator fetterman sort of hanging out there alone as the only person within the senate to call for his league's resignation is, of course, notable. i think it is important, though, to sort of be clear here. menendez is saying he is not going anywhere from the senate, but he is doing what he did the last time charges of corruption like this came forward, which is stepping down as the head of the powerful foreign relations committee. he is at least not on that committee while all of this works through, but i do think if you look to the other chamber, you have lawmakers calling for his resignation. of course, you have andy kim, the congressman from new jersey, saying though he didn't think he'd be mounting a bid like this, he is willing to challenge him. now, democrats have an alternative, even if menendez himself says he's not going anywhere and not facing pressure, at least yet for his colleagues to step down. >> you're clearly going to have

a busy week on capitol hill. there's not only this story, of course. we have, yay, the looming government shutdown. it is monday and shutdown week. we like to say on the program two things can be true at once, but is it true that kevin mccarthy can keep his job and keep the u.s. government open? >> i think that's the open question that we're all asking in the halls of congress. the way i look at this story, katty, is once you get through whatever the government shutdown story line ends up being, the next thing we will be inevitably covering is speaker mccarthy facing a motion to vacate. you have all the key mccarthy allies still in the room with him. people like garrett graves and patrick mchenry, all negotiating on the part of the speaker. i think what's different here than when we saw mccarthy, though, pull a rabbit out of a hat with the debt ceiling negotiation, effectively, is a large part, because he faced a bipartisan deal at the end of that, that's why many members of his conservative flank are so

mad at him. it makes these negotiations even harder. frankly, earlier this morning on "way too early," i had on congressman wiley nickel of north carolina, who left the door open to the idea he could help mccarthy save his job if a motion to vacate comes up. it feels increasingly like we're not saying if it comes up but when. even one of mccarthy's only allies, garrett graves, said he has his own motion to vacate drafted and sitting in his desk just so they can get the exercise over with. mccarthy has been optimistic, of course, about his chances. i do think the other thing i'd add, as if we don't have enough going on, it is government shutdown week, we're dealing with this with menendez, and, also, republicans are going to start their impeachment inquiry toward the end of the week. no shortage of news on capitol hill. >> charlie sykes, it is fascinating howdy livedivided t republican party seems to be in many ways. you have house members calling their own clown show.

you have this fighting back and forth between different elements of it. even with donald trump, we focus on a lot of poll numbers, but about a third are always trump in the republican party. about a thump are never trump in the republican party. so there's that divide. even something like fox news, which used to bring all republicans together now, there seems to be a split in the audience if you're reading these sort of postmortem runnings of rupert murdoch and fox corp. the party is divided. seems to me, if democrats get a viable, strong message and fix it, they should be in good shape over the next year. >> well, you would think so. i mean, the republicans are turning on one another, but they're doubling down on dysfunction, aren't they? >> yeah. >> you know, talk about what donald trump is up to. think about what's going on in capitol hill. you are talking about a

government shutdown, at the same time, they're launching this impeachment inquiry. what could possibly go wrong? kevin mccarthy has given away so much of his power. he has made himself so weak that he, in fact, has put the lunatics and the clowns in charge. yet, this is the moment where we have to ask, are the american people going to think the republican party should be trusted with more power? are they a serious governing party, or has it become all performative? they're not waiting until after the election to let their freak flags fly. you're seeing this at the presidential level, at the congressional level. look, you know, we've been talking about, you know, what kind of messaging, you know, the biden campaign should engage in. it's not really that complicated. joe biden can say, yes, i'm old, but he is crazy. they are ccrazy. they are dangerous and are burning it down. yes, i'm an old guy, but this

guy is deranged and fascist adjacent. that's the way you address the age issue and the contrast. don't make it too complex. you know, i'm old, but you're nuts. >> yeah. i think that makes a lot of sense, charlie sykes. thank you. nbc's ali vitali, thank you for your reporting and your "way too early" duties this morning. we appreciate it. >> thank you, all, so much. rev, i'm curious what your thought is, what you're hearing, again, from the democratic base, also from people around the joe biden question, of course, can kamala harris question always comes in right along with the joe biden question. what are you hearing? as a guy that's run a presidential campaign before, what do you think democrats' best way forward is? >> well, i spent two days at the congressional black caucus weekend, and president biden and vice president harris spoke at

the closing dinner. i'm sensing a lot of people saying that they're committed to going to the ground and trying to make sure that there is a major turnout in the black community, which is vital for biden/harris, and to reach out too other communities. there's a lot of concern about the potential government shutdown and the politics of that can work against the republicans. and i think that everyone is just completely taken aback by the things that are coming out of donald trump's mouth. donald trump is the best happen because every time he opens his mouth, he gives the american people more reason to feel that -- just imagine if he was the president and said, we ought to be executing general milley. i mean, just imagine the things he is saying if he were sitting behind that desk in the oval office. i think there's going to be a lot of people that will

underestimate joe biden. the morning after the democratic debates in charleston, south carolina, national action network, the group i head, had a ministers breakfast the next morning. buttigieg and bernie sanders, we had all the candidates there. joe biden walked in looking like a beat man. later that afternoon, jim clyburn endorsed him, and he ended up winning the primary. i would remind people, everything time joe biden has been counted out, the comeback is stronger than the setback. >> all right. coming up on "morning joe," this is how bad things have gotten for new york jet fans. >> jets fans are furious, tony. >> i mean, you can see it, the frustration. look, you know you're frustrated when your teeth come out. >> get a grip. >> go, jets. >> espn's pablo torre joins us with the biggest story lines

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touchdown, arizona. >> try to get to the edge and does. he trucks 'em in. >> packers have struggled on fourth down today. love will take it in. >> the blitz is on. he floats one. wide open. there he goes! all the way in. >> play action from watson, taking a shot. cooper wide open. >> bills fans on their feet. making noise on this third down. howell, and it's intercepted! what a play! he's going to go. >> goff stops, throws, he's got it! >> on first down, play action. over the top they go. he's got brown. brown stretches out, and it's a touchdown, new england. >> 11th play of the drive,

mahomes lofting end zone. there it is, a touchdown to kelce. >> first and ten, the fake good, block in there. down it goes. caught at the 30. this is the dynamic hill. he's in for six. >> some of the biggest plays by the winning teams across the nfl yesterday, including the first of ten touchdowns scored by the miami dolphins. one of the most lopsided games in nfl history. dolphins, 726 yards on offense as they crushed denver broncos, 70-20. the points total is a franchise record and the most stored by a team in a game since 1966. the host of "pablo torre finds out," pablo torre. so much to talk to you about. >> yes. >> i have to say, i have to say, there are a lot of times you

look at the nfl, like, you're watching "red zone," and one great team after another. i saw a lot of bad teams yesterday. some remarkable performances but, man, i saw some bad teams playing. that colts game was ugly. i mean, the vikings. you look at the ravens, that game. there was some ugly play. instead of starting with the ugliest game of all, which we all know what that was, let's talk about one of the remarkable performances we've seen in quite some time. that's the dolphins. that's tua. he starts 16 for 16. it's just unbelievable. it's that two-step drop, boom. two-step drop, boom. >> yup. >> what a performance. >> joe, i've never seen a game like this. i've been watching sports for a long time. >> never. >> i've never seen something like this. you know it's ridiculous because, by the end, mike mcdaniel, the excellent schematic genius who runs the dolphins, he elected to not kick

the field goal and tie the all-time points record, which is 73. he was hailed -- >> classy. >> -- as mercy, as class. 70 points is not a thing i expected to see in the nfl. that is joey chestnut level numbers, okay? that is hot dog contest level numbers. the dolphins, look, the story for the dolphins, for people who don't know, tua tagovailoa has been derided. derided to the point where there is an online movement on nfl twitter, which is a dangerous place, i'll warn you, but tuanon backs tua tagovailoa. they've been truthers about how good he is. now, they've had their day because their guy looks like the mvp. their coach looks like the coach of the year. joe, you know this, the broncos aren't a team of scrubs. this is russell wilson's team. this is sean payton's team. this is a team that had the biggest trade in nfl history leading into last season.

last season was obviously a disaster. this season is even worse. so 50 points is the degree of blowout there. it is you been real, but it happened last night. >> man, i will tell you, what dolphin fans were saying when tua's first year, even into the second year, just unmerciful against this guy. he can't throw a pass. >> correct. >> last year, of course, we thought by the end of the season he wasn't going to come back. he's had so many concussions. >> yeah. >> what they've done in miami, they have set up an offense that requires him to step back. most of the time, two steps, boom, it works most of the time because of the extraordinary receivers. >> jaylen waddle, second best receiver, wasn't even playing in the game. tyreek hill is, of course, one of the fastest people i've ever seen on this planet. then they have running backs, mike mcdaniel used to run the 49ers offense. you plug in running backs, he makes them go fast and go far. in terms of the perfect sports

car to drive around miami, tua tagovailoa is who you want. he has the arm. anyone who doubted him, we feel we had our brains eaten a little by the internet. >> they're obviously the best team in football right now. >> yes. >> let's talk about the worst in football right now. the new york jets. i mean, that jets/patriots game, i talked about ugly football yesterday. ugliest i've seen. that was a sad, sad game between two sad teams. >> they have not beaten the patriots, the jets have not, in 15 straight games. there was vulnerability here. this was a game that was close until the end, and you notice when you are, i don't know, searching your soul, wondering why god has done this to you as a jets fan, you notice that the guy who is playing quarterback for you is a movie you've seen before. i don't want to be mean to zach wilson, joe and mika, but when the guy in the stands is losing

his teeth, literally his teeth are falling out of his face, because he is angry, he is angry because zach wilson is someone they've lied to themselves about. this gentleman is thinking to himself, why are we still starting zach wilson? why am i still watching him play quarterback? i get i. i get it. they don't have another option. but sign someone off the street, truly. the zach wilson experience, you can only -- look, i have to convince my mom at some point, "mom, i'm not going to law school." she refused to believe me. hopefully now still today, it's sinking in finally, but that's the level of dilution you have to have around zach wilson, to believe you're a quarterback. no, no. a different job. >> zach wilson -- and, by the way, i feel badly about talking about any of these people because they're all -- you know, they were great at different levels. >> he is a top pick. >> zach wilson, he is not good. the biggest problem is, he

doesn't know he's not good. apparently, jets management doesn't know he's not good. they have -- they've got -- i said this at the beginning of the season. this is a good jets team. they have a really strong defense. they could go far. they need to get a veteran quarterback from anywhere, pablo. >> anywhere. >> anywhere. they will win seven, eight, nine games this season. >> yeah. they held the patriots to 15 points, like, this is a doable thing. play -- contention is not unrealistic. but i was watching andrew luck. by the way, retired early from the nfl, was with the colts, former star quarterback, i saw him pop up on the amazon thursday night football broadcast as a cameo. my thought was, the new york jets better be calling that man. call him up, beg him. >> yeah. >> get to amazon, look him up,

get him delivered to the meadowlands tomorrow, they need him desperately. >> prime, yes. >> here's the deal, we're going to talk about the cowboys now. >> okay. >> everybody is talking about the cowboys, and i get it, but you go back over the past two weeks, and you get this kid that was basically on the street, like nobody wanted him a month or two ago. >> yup. >> six out of the eight quarters that they've played, the last eight quarters they've played, they have played great football in arizona. talk about this game. >> yeah. josh dobbs is the quarterback you're referring to. this is, again, making jet fans even more miserable, because josh dobbs was signed right before the season. he'd not taken a snap in camp. the cardinals start him at quarterback, and everybody's thought is, they're trying to lose on purpose to draft caleb williams number one overall in the draft. they're tanking the season. they come into the game against dallas, they're 0-2 but have been playing shockingly hard.

dallas, for context, was looking like the best team in the nfl. had scored the most point, had the best defense. here comes josh dobbs and a cardinals team that has been counted out because they're incentivized to lose, and they upset the cowboys, 28-16. this is one of those -- look, the cowboys are the most popular tv show in america because it is america's team, because the nfl is king, it's the culture we worship, and the cowboys are the marquee franchise. when you have this level of upset in week three, it is just -- i mean, it's a cereal bowl full of shot and it is delicious. >> it is delicious. cardinals had a great first half last week. see if they improve. i have to get to deion sanders. in passing, the browns looked really impressive. >> a lot better. >> one week after the heartbreak of losing their top running

back, chubb. >> nick chubb, yup. >> but let's talk, though, about deion. i'm a big believer. i come from the bear bryant school of football. you beat appalachian state, 63-3, and in the press conference, talk about what a terrible coach you are and how lucky you are to win. when i hear deion sanders after the first game do what he does -- which, he's great, i get it -- i'm thinking, oh, keep your head down. bad days coming, man. he doesn't do it, and he got knocked off this weekend. >> yeah, yeah. i noticed a little shot in your mug there, joe, on that front. deion sanders, to your point, does not know how to do humble in that way. deion sanders will talk a long time about how much he loves his players and all that, and i believe that is genuine. that's all fair. but when you are coming in and you are immediately the second most famous coach, next to bear bryant's successor, nick saban, and you're winning these games

and you're talking about being the greatest coach in college football, when a reckoning happens like this, two things happen. number one, the bookmakers say, why did you doubt us? of course oregon, a top ten team, is going to destroy you guys. the second thing that happens is, everybody who campaigned against you on the level of, this guy is hype and not substance, it's not -- it's too early for deion sanders' victory parade, they can validate it. deion sanders is one of the greatest recruiters in america, he is charismatic, he built the program sooner than we thought, but the next game is ufc. caleb williams will probably drop 70 points on him. it is one of the things where i hope you sold your deion stock this season, even if he is claiming they're going to the moon. >> listen, they are. they're going to do great. you're right, he is an incredible recruiter. he has shaken college football up like nobody.

great things are going to be coming. i remember, like, pushing really hard for nick saban to come to alabama. he came to alabama, and the end of the first season, he was 6-6. people said, eh, joe, may not have been the right pick. i'm like, dude, dude, give this guy a couple of years. same thing with deion. two, three years from now, the system is in, he has the players around, he is going to be great. speaking of a team that's been great but may not make it to the playoffs, we'll see, that last slot in the american league wild card right now, what a fight between the houston astros and the seattle mariners. back and forth every day, fighting for sursurvival. heck of a final week. >> julio rodriguez, one of the most exciting p in baseball now that shohei ohtani is out for the season. the story of the astros the mind-blowing. of course, we know them most famously for their cheating

scandal, banging trash cans, sending signals. every year since, we realize, they're actually pretty good and well run. they're there every year. if you tell me the astros will make a run in the postseason this year, i would not be surprised. i wouldn't be surprised to see a team -- again, it's not a feel-good story because of the cheating stuff, but you watch year after year, and you're like, they actually -- it is a shame they cheated in the first place because they didn't need it. they've proven it every year since. they don't need it. it's the barry bonds thing. you didn't need the steroids. you didn't. >> exactly! >> why? why you gotta? >> even before he was one of the 10, 15 best players in baseball history. >> yes. >> he is extraordinary. >> the host of -- >> we could do this all day. >> sorry, mika. >> pablo torre. we're four minutes past the top of the hour, but for pablo, it is worth every second. >> every second. >> thank you so much. >> thank you, pablo. >> great to have you on. as we get to our top story this morning, new polling from

nbc news showing president joe biden and former president donald trump deadlockedothetica matchup. according to the latest survey, biden and trump earned 46% of support in a potential rematch of the 2020 contest. 74% of registered voters say they have major or moderate concerns about the current president's age and mental fitness. for trump, who is three years younger than biden, that number is 27 points lower. at 47%. 62% of voters have concerns about trump's legal voters. 60% say they have concerns about bi biden's awareness or involvement in his son's business dealings, which is the subject of an impeachment inquiry in the republican-led house. >> that is a perfect example of how misinformation and smoke,

having a constant smoke machine going against hunter biden and focusing on hunter biden nonstop has now got about the same number of people saying they're as concerned about hunter biden as they are about donald trump stealing nuclear secrets, donald trump trying to steal the election, donald trump -- you go down the list. donald trump being found liable for sexual assault, what the judge said was equivalent of rape. >> trump is always on the airwaves somewhere, some right-wing network, somewhere, he is always on spreading misinformation, lying, lying, lying. >> we're hearing this morning from the biden campaign. we said last hour, they need to stop telling people how great they're doing and maybe start, you know, looking at the person they're running against, who is a threat to american democracy. they need to go after him. >> it's the two things can be truth thing. we have another poll, this from abc news and "the washington post."

trump is leading by nine points. in the survey, the former president leads the current one. 51% to 42% among all adults. and "the washington post" noted that this poll, like their last poll, is likely an outlier. it is consistent, though, again, with earlier this year. i just -- rev, here's the deal. when you've got a poll that shows donald trump winning among young voters, it's time for you to take that material and throw it in the trash can and try to start over, because they know. every pollster in the republican and democratic party knows, donald trump isn't winning among younger voters, but that's what the skewed poll has him doing. >> i think when you saw that, that he is winning among young voters, it discredits the rest of the poll. you could never, ever take that seriously. and, again, i think that the

president, joe biden, needs to take this age argument straight to trump and say, "you are just three years younger than me." i agree with sykes, he should say, "i'm old, but you're nuts, you're crazy, out of your mind. you're talking about executing a former chief of staff, a former head of the joint chiefs of staff. you're talking about things that are just outrageous and unbelievable." just take it on. don't duck it. clearly, they're trying to deal with that. and i would also take on the issue of the crimes against him and the crimes that they've accused my son of. i'd say that. this is my son. i love my son. i think we ought to let the legal process play out. but they've accused this man of 91 felonies, not his son, not donald jr., him. >> yeah. >> i think if you take these things straight on, the public

will understand it. people will understand you loving your son. they can't understand you hiding documents that are dealt with national security yourself. >> flushing them down the toilet. >> katty kay is still with us. joining the conversation, we have member of "the new york times" editorial board, mara gaye. former secretary under obama, jay johnson. partner at the law firm, weiss. and vaughn hillyard is live in summerville, south carolina, where there will be a campaign event later today. there is new reporting, "republicans' anti-trump effort flounders as the former president cruises ahead." >> vaughn, i seem to hear two things from phone calls coming in, especially this weekend. one, republicans still trying to figure out how to get rid of donald trump and put somebody else, whether it's tim scott or nikki haley in his place, and

democrats just fretting about joe biden. it's fascinating that you have sort of the, you know, establishment class both very unsettled about the candidates that their party is most likely going to be nominating. >> reporter: right. when we look at the republican side of this, joe, we've had this conversation for months now. dating back to november of last year, ten months ago, when donald trump first entered the race, what was the anti-trump effort going to look like within the republican party? fast forward ten months later. we are here in september of 2023. less than four months until the iowa caucus, that anti-trump effort within the gop, it's fragmented, it's weakened, and there are folks that are questioning whether to continue to not only invest in the effort to try to take down donald trump, but also whether it is too late to take him down here at this point. when you look at the new nbc

news polling from the last 24 hours, donald trump extending his lead over ron desantis. it is now up to 43 points. that is up from 29 points. i was talking with one top political adviser to one of the anti-trump campaigns here running in this primary. this person wastrated from the organization. we've seen $10 million spent from outside organizations by conservative groups to take on donald trump. largely, those ads have only given glancing shots at him, not trying to undermine his image in republican voters but, instead, sticking to the electability question around him. when we look back at this moment in history and tell the next generation, what did that effort look like to take down donald trump, you had numerous candidates that tried to run against him but were unwilling

to take him on head on. there's been one campaign ad that used his mugshot out of fulton county. only one ad from liz cheney's political pac that used january 6th footage. from this republican effort, there is serious questions, as one finance chairman, donald trump's in 2016 and 2020, in arizona told me, she'd been wooed by ron desantis's campaign, but now she is telling major donors in the southwest that it is not clear whether their resources could be used or it'd be worthwhile to prop up any other candidate. she's behind donald trump because she believes it is the best investment to make in order to take down joe biden in 2024. >> vaughn hillyard, live from south carolina, thank you for your reporting. >> thank you, vaughn. >> mara, before he was indicted for stealing nuclear secrets, stealing war plans and being found liable by a jury of his peers for sexual assault, and a judge saying he committed rape, donald trump was actually doing 20 points worse, poorer, in the

republican party. every indictment, we heard it'd help, and every indictment for stealing nuclear secrets, every indictment for trying to steal the election, every judgment for sexual assault and defamation just helps him inside the republican party. >> it's like watching this horrific train wreck that gets worse and worse as every car kind of goes off the rails. of course, what's happening, what you're describing is the reality that donald trump has created this very dysfunctional, toxic relationship with the most extreme voters in that party. so they see themselves in some ways like donald trump. wherever he is being prosecuted, he has created a dynamic, i believe, where they, too, feel that they are under attack. so that kind of snowballs. now, you see, you know, from vaughn's reporting, there are a

very small number of republican donors who are willing to actually try and stop that train in its tracks at this point. i actually think that's why it is so important for joe bidenhe just talking about, which is, you have to go out there and you have to start telling your own story. you have to kind of own the narrative as it is. at this point, you know, trump has told voters for almost a decade now, everybody is a crook. i'm a winner. you just want to be with the winner. and i think what the president really probably needs to do is get out there and say, "all politicians are not the same, actually. and, no, it's not the same thing to be accused of over 90 felonies as it is to have a son that has gotten off track in life." that's not the same thing. you know, i think that if he leans into that kind of grandfatherly image, a statesman, somebody who you can trust, he's probably going to kind of gain his footing in that. but running away from those

attacks, you have to confront a bully. >> you have to confront the bully. it's what the biden campaign has to do. >> jeh johnson, the crisis at is southern border is an area where the democrats are struggling a bit. two-fold question. first, what more should the administration be doing as the crisis comes to new york city and cities across the country? it's definitely being used by republicans as joe biden's crisis. politically, should more blame be put on republicans for this situation? >> mika, couple of things. good morning. i was in to see mayor adams lt week on this issue. i don't think he'd mind me saying that. this is problem number one on his list. you cannot -- the largest city in the world, even the largest city in the world, in the country, cannot absorb a population of 110,000 people. that's the size of albany, new

york, in the space of eight months. all of whom are unemployed and none of whom have a roof over the head. this is a $1 billion problem, blown his budget, and turned the politics of new york city upside down. i think what the city needs and other cities that are struggling with this, first and foremost, from the federal government, is money. you know, on the national level, we like to say that immigration law and policy is the province of the federal government. the federal government has primacy, if not exclusivity in this space. okay. now that they're here in times square, in manhattan, in queens, in brooklyn, we need the federal government to do way more to step up to help take care of these people. for the most part, they're harmless, desperate people, but they need shelter. they need jobs. it was a good thing that the department of homeland security, my old department, decided to grant tps to about 9,500

venezuelans here in the city. that will expedite their ability to get jobs sooner and faster. but that's really just a drop in the bucket. this problem has no end in sight. the two most alarming statistics i heard over the weekend, 8,900 apprehensions on our southern border in one day last week. and that, on the mexican border with central america, south americans are now exceeding central americans in terms of the migration north. this is a hemispheric problem. you have a hemispheric shift moving northward right now. the federal government needs to be all hands on deck. that includes the state department. the state department, to be blunt, does not pay enough attention to this hemisphere. they leave it to the secretary of homeland security to deal with mexico, to deal with canada, deal with central america. it was vice president biden when he was with president biden, who

dealt with central america. this needs to be an all-hands-on-deck issue for the federal government. purely in political terms, you want to maximize donald trump's chance of re-election? fail to deal with this problem. this will turn our politics upside down. >> jeh, on that point, i've known joe biden for decades. as you know, i've known eric adams for decades. when the president was here last week for the u.n. meeting, the press made a point that both the mayor and the president didn't even need to talk about some of the religious and faith leaders talking about trying to bring them together. what should biden and adams try to come together and get done? what can the federal government get done? both face some political fallout from this. this it does not resolve itself,

it'll hurt the president and hurt eric adams. >> correct. >> they both have a political interest to, let's get in a room and see how we solve this. what would you put on the table as a possible solution? >> first and foremost, this city and state need more resources. they need more federal assistance to deal with the 110,000 and growing number of migrants who are coming to this city, who have no roof over their head and no jobs. more fundamentally, the lesson i learned in this job when i had it was, you can do things to enhance enforcement policy or be lax on enforcement policy. that will have a very sharp effect, almost immediately, on the numbers. but so long as the underlying factors in central america, south america, persist, the numbers will also lapse back to the longer-term trend lines. the administration got a break in may. everyone was expecting large numbers after the end of title

42, but they emphasized there was a right way and wrong way to come to this country. have venezuelans apply in a proper way. use the app. go to regional processing centers. the migrants and the smugglers have figured out that those things do not -- are not able to handle these numbers. so they're working around this system again. i'm worried these numbers are going to get higher and higher. march/april tend to be the peak months. if we're seeing these kind of numbers in september/october, i think we're in for a real mess. >> mara, there are clearly real concerns for the white house. the border situation, as jeh johnson laid out, very clearly one of them. the economy with the federal reserve suggesting interest rates, which means car payments, a whole host of other payments are going to stay high. mortgage rates next year, as well. yet, poll after poll keeps

pointing to a major concern amongst voters as being joe biden's age. i wonder if there will be a change of strategy in the white house. they've gone from laughing off the age question to being irritated with reporters when raise the age question. is this a moment where they have to have a rethink on how they're selling their campaign? >> i do think that they should start embracing the reality that the president is older. that is a concern among americans. but the problem is, when you kind of ignore concerns or you treat them as silly, that only makes people more curious. well, why aren't you talking about this and owning this? by embracing it and saying, lots of americans are older. it doesn't mean you have to put somebody out to pasture. this is a question of ability. this is a question of

experience. there's something to be said for decades of experience in washington, getting things done. i think that is kind of that pivot that they need to make. i think the longer they delay that, the more space they give to donald trump, but also just in voters' minds, the minds of independent voters, swing state voters, well, gee, let me wait and see. i think if you're joe biden, you really want to kind of coalesce you base at this point. i also have to say, the polls, it is so early, and, of course, how you contextualize these polls matter. there may be many americans who say, yeah, i'm a little concerned about joe biden's age, but if you ask them, would that stop you for voting for him, they may have a very different answer. you don't want to make too much of it. but the white house doesn't need to run away from this issue. >> right. >> and the thing -- one of the many things i learned in politics -- and, rev, you'll agree with me -- when you run away from an issue, it follows you. when you take it head on and charge into it and you own that

issue, you own that issue. then you start turning it against other people. i will just say, right now, you and i, rev, i'm sorry, mika, and i'm sorry, everybody else who is offended by this. >> what? >> we're old guys, okay? the rev and i love heavyweight boxing in the 1970s. >> yeah. >> it was amazing. and the thing is, right now, right now, joe biden is just standing there like ali's opponents would stand there on the friday night fights on cbs. he is just -- he's allowing them to punt. he's not punching back. >> right. >> i mean, we remember when ali got beaten. when other greats get beaten, you get beaten by people who are disrupters, who fight differently. it's, you know, let's borrow from hollywood, it's the southpaw, it's the disrupter. right now, you have donald trump

running against a republican field, just like the republican field in 2016 and just like hillary clinton in 2016, we're playing by marquess of queensberry rules. donald trump played as a disrupter, so they never were able to deep up with him. the same thing is happening now. joe biden's campaign approach, bidenomics, is flat footed. they need to be disruptive to a disrupter. not to go on too long, but this is what dr. brzezinski said about the soviet union. they lose an unfair fight against the united states every time on economics, on military, on soft power, on everything else. that's why putin is the way putin is. joe biden and the biden campaign, they need to stop fighting flat footed. they're fighting a disrupter.

if they keep trying to fight a conventional campaign, they're going to have problems. >> you cannot fight a conventional campaign when you're in a street fight. donald trump is a street fighter. you've got to be able to deal with that. you know, people, if you run, they will chase you. i learned when i was very young as an activist and started getting a lot of fire, people attacking me. an old activist told me, you have to embrace where you're wrong and fight back. he says, let me tell you something about hunting, reverend al, you don't hunt. i said, no. he says, "why do people like to go rabbit hunting rather than bear hunting?" i said, "why?" he said, "because rabbits run from the hunter. bears go after the hunter." rabbit hunting wouldn't be fun if the rabbit had a gun. >> jeh johnson -- >> i'm just -- wait a minute.

>> i have nothing to add, so i'll throw it to you. wait b, rabbits -- >> that went in a couple directions, rev. >> jeh johnson, final word? >> it comes down to a choice. every four years, there's a choice. i love that line. i'll repeat it when i get to my law office. but elections are a choice. i'll take joe biden at age 86 on his worst day over donald trump on any day. a man with four criminal indictments hanging over his head. the presidency is a job. who would hire somebody for a job who has four criminal indictments hanging over them? we have to look at this in practical terms. president is not just somebody who leads rallies, channels grievance and anger. it is the most demanding job in the nation. once we start looking at this election in those terms, i think joe biden is going to be fine. >> all right. former secretary of homeland security, jeh johnson, thank you

very much for closing this out on an eloquent note. still ahead on "morning joe," the united states could be sending a significant piece of artillery to ukraine. we'll tell you what it is, and we'll have expert analysis on how the weapon can help ukrainian forces. >> also, more importantly, we're going to be talking to admiral stavridis about where this war is right now. is it going to be a stalemate for the next year or two? >> yeah. and a former white house aide gives more details about what mark meadows was doing in his final days as donald trump's chief of staff. >> he was burning stuff. >> yeah. or he was just on his phone zoning out. also ahead, president biden is hitting the road with a planned stop on the picket lines. we'll dig into that ahead on "morning joe." we'll be right back.

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31 past the hour. live look at the white house on the monday morning. joining us, former supreme allied commander of nato, retired four-star navy admiral, james stavridis. he is chief international analyst for nbc news. and former cia officer, marc polymeropoulos, msnbc national security and intelligence analyst. good to have you both on board this morning. >> thanks so much for being with us. admiral, let's talk about the war that's been going on now since early last year, the year before. we're at a stalemate. we heard about the spring offensive, summer offensive, never came through. >> we also heard it'd be long. >> we've heard it is going to

long, but there is a question. how much more is the united states going to be willing to invest in this war? >> well, first of all, i can answer the question how this ends in three words. i don't know. we all ought to get a little less confident about our predictive abilities in this situation. but i'll give you my best guess of where it is headed. yes, there is a stalemate on the land, joe, but we're seeing the ukrainians make some real strikes at sea. that's not insignificant. the black sea fleet headquarters on fire, russian ships on the bottom of the black sea. we're seeing the ukrainians fight quite capaby in air defense mode, as f-16s join the fray. look for that to up gun a bit. frankly, we are stalemated, but you are seeing some incremental

gains in the land war. so let's give the ukrainians another month or two and see if they can really get things moving. assuming they cannot, assuing your premise is right, that we're really in a stalemate, two forces will push towards negotiations. one is putin's burn rate. he has burned through hundreds of thousands of troops, hundreds of thousands of young russian males have left the country to avoid the draft, perhaps half of his army equipment is destroyed. his burn rate is very hard. on the other side, and here we come to your excellent question, joe, the burn rate is us. it's how long are we willing to continue to finance this? you can feel that cracking on both sides of the equation, on the right and somewhat on the left. i think the center w hold on this. but that is going to be the other burn rate to watch,

presre on both sides may bring them to a negotiation, perhaps after the winter. we'll see. >> marc polymeropoulos, the white house and some people in the pentagon were predicting that they were going to have a stalemate. you know, general milley has been in the news an awful lot this weekend because of former president calling basically for his execution. but general milley said in an interview with me, he said, listen, people that think the ukrainians are going to get every russian troop out of ukraine this year, or any russians who think they're going to get to kyiv this year, they're just kidding themselves. it's not going to happen. these lines are going to be frozen for some time. general milley was right, are we going to see in the next six months any movement either way? >> joe, i'm a little more optimistic. i actually believe we can affect the battlefield. you saw, finally, on friday, after -- actually, thursday,

where there were confusion, but, friday, there was the reporting we're providing the long-range missiles, which will allow ukraine to really hit anywhere inside ukraine, where russian occupies, particularly crimea. a perfect example of this is where i would call a high-value target strike. it was a leadership decapitation strike on friday. this was using storm shadow, british-supplied cruise missiles. the atacms, in essence, will replace them. this is enabled by a human source. it perhaps killed the commander of the black sea fleet, scores of his officers, and showed the reach -- >> marc, let me stop you there. when you say a human source directed this, this sounds awful lot like the war against al qaeda that you fought. >> right. >> for a long time in afghanistan and iraq. >> well, this is why this is so impressive, i think, to a lot of us. the head of ukrainian military intelligence has come out and said, yes, there was a human source involved.

that someone is, in essence, on scene and giving tactical information. you fuse that up with the strike capability. that's what we did successfully, of course, in places like pakistan and yemen. the ukrainians in my mind, after seeing this friday, are demonstrating a capability of a first-world military and first-world intelligence service. the russians will be really worried. i would reiterate again, i think we can affect the battlefield. that's why the provision of the atacms, i think, is going to be significant. >> admiral, heading toward the colder months and the end of this current fighting season, i was looking at the front cover of "the economist" this week, which is "the long war and what zelenskyy can do to keep the west on side." what do you think the president of ukraine can be doing differently? apart from having military successes, what could he do to appeal to americans and europeans, to make sure they stay with him through the winter months and into next year if

necessary? >> key question, katty. let's remember, the u.s. has put $40 billion, $50 billion into this. so have the euroeuropeans. the contributions are balanced, so that is an important flank that president zelenskyy must shore up. friday, mika and joe and i were discussing poland, which is stepping a little bit back from providing. a lot of that is local politics. i think that'll shift. but point one for president zelenskyy, he needs to shore up that european flank starting with warsaw. then, point two for him as you look at the battlefield, he needs to press his generals to continue to use drones, to use air power as it comes online, to shift the paradigm. he is winning at sea. he can win in the air. that can help that stalemate that we're going to see on the

ground in the months to come. >> retired admiral james stavridis and msnbc national security and intelligence analyst, marc polymeropoulos, thank you, both, very much, for being on this morning. coming up, as cultural issues continue to consume american politics, our next guest will explain, quote, how to argue against identity politics without turning into a reactionary. plus, updates on the major worker strikes. hollywood screenwriters and studios reaching a tentative deal to resolve the stalemate. while the united auto workers expand tir stoppage, with president biden traveling to michigan to join the picket line. we'll have the latest ahead on "morning joe."

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what does it mean, how do you define work? >> start with biological boys

playing in girls sports, one thing. the fact we have gender pronoun classes in the military now. i mine, all of these things that are pushing what a small minority want on the majority of americans, it's too much. >> that is republican presidential candidate nikki haley explaining her definition of the term, . culture wars are at the forefront of our nation's politics. the far right is looking to eliminate things like diversity programs in the workplace, while democrats are seeking to enhance protections for minority groups. our next guest writes, the rigid focus on group identity that now dominates much of the public debate makes it harder for people from different groups to get along. joining us now, founder of the magazine, "persuasion, yascha mounk. a contributing editor at the

atlantic and senior fellow at the council of foreign relations. his new book is entitled, "the identity trap, a story of ideas and power in our time." yascha, in your latest essay for "the new york times," based on the book entitled "how to argue against identity politics without turpturning into a reactionary," you write in rt, this, key members of what has been called the intelial intell dark web started out opposing the real excesses of supposedly progressive ideas and practice only to morph into cranks. they have serious concerns regarding the ideas and nor about race, gender and sexual orientation. they believe practices like separating people into different groups according to race are deeply counterproduct on the other hand, these americans are deeply cocience

that real injustices against minority groups persist. right deride the new norms as woke. i prefe a more neutral phrase, which emphasizes that this ideology focuses on the role that groups play in society, the identity synthesis. the identity synthesis is a trap. if we collectively fall into it, there will be more, not less, zero-sum competition between different groups. but it is possible to oppose the identity trap without coming a reactionary. ame or hesitation for a future in which what we have in common truly comes to be more important than what divides us. >> and yascha, thank you so much for being here. we've read your entire book, and we thank you. >> no, it's complicated.

>> realy long time. just sort of struggling with it myself. there has to be this center ground between hard core identity politics that separates us all into different groups and, i would say, fascism, but let's just say reactionary, sort of this reactionary thing, where you have people on the far right basically saying, we don't want to talk about, you know, any parts of black history or american history that make us uncomfortable. >> that's right. it is a tradition in the american politics, and its goes to people like frederick douglass, abraham lincoln, barack obama. the thing to understand about the terms of woke or critical race theory that's been debated so much, it's been misunderstood by everybody in the debate. on the right, people say, you want to teach kids about the history of slavery at school,

want sex ed, and that is woke, critical race therapy. that's absurd. my friends and colleagues will think, well, all woke is is just being nice to people. it is recognizing the real injustices of american history, or being afraid, like donald trump coming back into the white house in 2024. when you actually look at some of the origin of these ideas and the way they're being applied in all kinds of settings, from nonprofits to corporations to schools, as i do any my new book, "the identity trap," you find these ideas go well beyond that, but they're based on an explicit rejection of that political tradition that is prized in american politics. the key theorists of critical race theory, for example, have argued that we should reject the ideology of the civil rights movement, as derek bell once put it. or the philosophy of barack obama is fundamentally at odds with the key tenants of this

ideology, as somebody like kimberly crenshaw put it. >> let me ask this, what about the danger of people being seen as a monolith, that if you are black or if you are latino, if you're jewish, if you're a woman, you all think alike? >> yeah. >> we all have some common experiences, but we respond to them differently. clarence thomas and i are the same. he is my color but not my kind. we could be in the same circumstance of discrimination. how does your book and how does your view deal with how you deal with this monolith, that everybody is put in a certain kind of category and everybody, therefore, should think the same way when we don't? >> i agree with you 100% about that. so my argument is that this particular new ideology, which is really interesting and insightful in some ways, but ultimately i think wrong headed, is a political trap. it is actually going to make it easier for people like trump to be re-elected. it has all kinds of negative

political consequences. it is also a personal trap. a lot of schools close to where we are right now in new york, they say the main goal of a progressive education should be to teach students to think for themselves, and to get a sense of belonging into society, they have to think of themselves in terms of an intersection of identities. to belong in society, you can't have racism, can't have discrimination, can't say you're less than because where you were born, but that is exactly the trap you're talking about. to feel seen in society, i need to be recognized for my own preferences ideas and character. my brother might have many similar identities to me, but i'm not my brother. i'm not going to be seen in the world. and so i think precisely, we need respect for different groups. it's wonderful in america if people celebrate the different

cultural origins, solidarity is wonderful. but if you have an education that says you should see yourself as a racial being or most important thing as a particular group into which you're born, that's how you define yourself, that's when we fall exactly into that trap. >> i think what's so interesting here listening to your argument and reading your work in the times as well is i think most people, actually most human beings want to be judged by their character as an individual. that's not where the argument is. the thing i'm having trouble understanding about your work and your argument is that identity politics isn't new. if you are so genuinely and deeply concerned, understandably, about those kind of divisions that may be in some cases artificial, why not start with dismantling white supremacy where the divisions began and the power lines. >> a few things. the first is that a lot of my work has been about that. this is my fifth book.

the last two books have been about the threat of rising populism. i like to say i'm a democracy crisis hipster. i worried about the crisis of democracy before, pop lists like donald trump and people like la pen in france and modi in india before 2016. that is urgent, we have to fight against it. purely politically, i actually think that one of the reasons why it has become so prevalent in progressive spaces, it became impossible to criticize bad ideas. one of the reasons trump is doing well in the polls is people mistrust these institutions because of the prevalence of some of these ideas. we saw in a recent "new york times" analysis that one key voting bloc in the republican party is voters who are nonwhite, progressive on many issues including acceptance of trans people and other kinds of

things. but who are being pushed away from the democratic party by some of the ideas. i don't like to talk about identity politics, it's too many things at the same time. certain forms of identity politics are legitimate if you're fighting against injustices that apply to you because of a group of which you are a part, that is a normal part of politics and a laudable part of politics. but when you see, for example, aid for small businesses during the pandemic going not to those businesses but have lost the most revenue but rather to businesses depending on the skin color of the people who own those businesses, i think that is failing the economic purpose of those policies, which is to help businesses survive during the pandemic that have been affected by them, and set up the zero sum politics, we'rening politics into an outright fight

between groups, and there's no reason to think in a systemic way those groups who have historically marginalized are going to win the fight. thk it's setting us up for failure of helping those groups that like you i'm worried about. >> given your work on identity politics over the years globally, and here in the united states, which is what we're focused on, how would you say that the politics of white identity functions in the united states today? >> that's a huge part of it and one of my huge worries. you go back to the example in schools. now, many schools in which teachers come into third grade, second grade, first grade classrooms, right, and they split those kids up. if you're asian american, you go over there. if you're white, you go in that corner. one of my concerns is what happens to the white kids and it's not that it might be uncomfortable. it's fine to be uncomfortable in

your education, and be lectured about something you find not very nice. that's fine. i don't worry about that. that's a good part of an education. what i'm worried about is what is going to happen to the kids. the hope of the educators is once you embrace, encourage them as bank street school in new york says is to own their european heritage, define themselves as white, they think they're going to proclaim white privilege and be antiracist, all of my reading in history, the most important thing about you is that you're white, that's how you should self-identify, you're going to become a racist, fight for the interests of your group over that of others. i don't think these pedagogical practices are helping us deal with problems like white supremacy. >> is there evidence that's the case? >> i do think there's strong

evidence in social psychology that's how it works. how you define groups, how you think of yourself depends strongly on social context. think of yourself as an american that shares with other people. you can think of yourself as a member of your sports team, right, as a member of your school community. we can think of ourselves predominantly as white, and if you lean more into that identity, it has always been the case in history that you're going to prioritize the interests of your in group over that of your out group, and that has been demonstrated again and again and again in social psychology. >> thank you. fascinating. >> the book is entitled "the identity trap," the stories of ideas and power in our time. yascha mounk, thank you very much for being on the show this morning. congratulations on the book. up next, dry cleaning bills, burned documents and clothes

that smelled like a bonfire. what cassidy hutchinson is revealing about the final days of the trump white house. plus, our beethoven at the big board, steve kornacki will be live at the studio, and break down the nbc poll numbers in the 2024 race for the white house. and we're following the latest with the hollywood writers strike. the new details that led to the tentative deal after nearly 120 days, and the shows likely to come back on the air in just a few days. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. 'll be righ. [gasp] >> customer: my car! >> tech vo: she didn't take it to the dealer. she scheduled with safelite. we have the latest technology for the newest vehicles. and we do more replacements and recalibrations than anyone else. >> customer: thank you so much. >> tech: don't wait-- schedule now. ♪ pop music ♪ >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪

i'm patriotic kenny. and, hi, i'm amanda. my scooter broke down. i went into a depression. (how do you feel about that?) pretty sad. i posted it to show that kenny's not always happy. within 24 hours people had donated over $5,000. no, you're kidding. (we set up the patriotic kenny foundation) (to give mobility scooters to veterans.) it has changed my life tremendously. (none of this would've happened without tiktok.)

the arsonist that lit their house on fire, they're whining about their house burning, they want credit for putting the fire out, and set up a go fund me to pay for what happened. anyone who says we're going to finish all 12 appropriations bills between now and next saturday is hallucinating.

>> i say let's pass the cr, so that we can stop passing crs. that's like telling a crack addict we're going to give you more crack to keep you off crack. it doesn't work, ma'am. >> two house republicans with very pessimistic views of whether congress can avoid a government shutdown. contentious negotiations as lawmakers have less than a week to get a deal done. democrats are cautiously commenting on the corruption allegations against senator bob menendez after federal agents say they found piles of crash bribes hidden in his home! >> how cautious do you have to be on this one? john fetterman is saying he needs to get out. nobody else is. >> that's a fair assessment so far. plus, new polling on a hypothetical biden/trump

rematch. how voters feel about biden's age and trump's legal issues. an update on the auto workers strike, it comes as the union is expected to get high profile supporters on the picket lines this week. good morning and welcome to "morning joe," it's monday, everybody, time to get up. september 25th, and for our jewish friends observing yom kippur we wish you a meaningful and easy fast. with us, we have u.s. special correspondent for bbc news, katty kay, host of msnbc's "politics nation" ref reverend al sharpton, and founder of the bulwark, charlie sykes. a significant turning point in the month's long writers

strike that brought hollywood to a halt, they have reached a tentative deal to end the strike. that's according to the writers guild of america that is closer to the finish line after five straight days of negotiations, this new development, suspended picketing immediately. details of the agreement are expected to be announced in the next few days. at that point, the guild will vote on whether to accept the deal, which includes higher base compensation, increased royalties, and stricter protections against artificial intelligence. that was a real sticking point. the first batch of shows you'll likely see back on the air are the daytime and late night programs. the move would relieve some pressure on hosts who were criticized for announcing plans of a return before these strikes were resolved. as for hollywood actors, they're still on the picket lines and will continue their strike until

their union, sag-aftra reaches a deal with studios. >> great news. >> we have major new polling in politics this morning. >> some crazy new polling. 10 points apart, the two polls that are out, so, yeah, let's talk about it. >> the new polling from nbc news shows that president joe biden and former president donald trump are deadlocked in a hypothetical 2024 election match-up. according to the latest survey, biden and trump earned 46% of support in a potential rematch of the 2020 contest. 74% of registered voters say they have major or moderate concerns about the current president's age and mental fitness. for trump who is three years younger than biden, that's 47%. 62% of voters say they have concerns about trump's legal problems, but 60% say they have

concerns about biden's awareness of involvement in his son's business dealings. the other new poll, this one from abc news and "the washington post" has trump leading biden by 9 points in a 2024 election match-up. in this survey, the former president leads the current one, 51% to 42% among all adults. "the washington post" noted this is likely an outlier, but it is consistent with an abc news "washington post" poll of the same question from earlier this year. in this latest poll, 74% say biden is too old for a second term versus 50% who say trump is too old for a second term. biden faces negative ratings on other key issues as well. just 37% approve of his overall job performance compared to 56 who disapprove.

biden's approval is even lower at 30% for his handling of the economy. and at 20% for his handling of the situation at the southern border. let's bring in white house reporter for "the washington post" tyler pager, and nbc news presidential historian, michael beschloss, good to have you both this morning. >> let's talk among ourselves before we bring the guests in. we have talked about this a good bit through the years about joe biden, and i got -- i think it was yesterday evening, mark halprin's news letter. i want to read one take. it's pretty consistent from one of his experts, and think about this. i can show you one expert after another mocking and ridiculing

joe biden and the democrats for their strategy leading up to the 2022 midterm. the mockery for him talking about democracy and abortion was over the top. you should have heard them, and i'm not going to say people's names here, the so called truth tellers, they made fools of themselves mocking democrats and no blow back for underestimating biden. they were proven wrong. the irony of people attacking the press for not telling the truth and then willfully being blind to terrible predictions in 2020 and 2022. people said biden was dead in the water after iowa, new hampshire, nevada, the open mockery was over the top, the open mockery throughout the campaign was over the top. the tales of doom on election night, over the top. no one is held accountable for underestimating joe biden these past few years. nobody. and the people that look, and i

must say that the people that you look to as truth tellers are at the top of that list. they were wrong about biden then. they are wrong about biden now. they are wrong about biden far more than they are right. from trumpers to progressives to people who have made a lot of money in podcasts and news letters being quote, truth tellers, they have been dead wrong about biden at the polls, and dead wrong about biden hammering out bipartisan legislation in three straight years. no accountability because they are truth tellers, and mika, it's true. i mean, you know remember after iowa. >> yeah. >> he was dead. remember after new hampshire. >> mm-hmm. >> mocked, ridiculed, dead, after nevada, there's no way he can come back. wins south carolina, he wins the nomination. too old, living in his basement. he can't get out of his basement, he's going to lose. then election night, well, trump

is going to win this state and that state. wrong. and then progressives as well as trumpers, wrong for two years about bipartisan -- i'm just telling you, maybe these polls are right. well, they're not right. it's not 9 points. "morning joe" betting syndicate will take all of your bets right now. if you want to take the plus 9 on joe biden, yeah, no, biden's not going to lose by nine points. this is a close race, and there are warning signs there. i will say, though, i'm a little tired of it. i'm a little tired of three years hearing about how joe biden's going to get crushed, he's going to get crushed in 2020. he and the democrats are going to get crushed in 2022. there's going to be a red wave. there's no way he can pass bipartisan legislation. he passes more than anybody this century. and it just keeps going on and on. >> there's a bunch of things at play, and to jump on what you're

saying, if these truth tellers would say, you know, it doesn't look good. polls don't look good. but we have been here before. let me give context historically, look what happened the last time, he was under estimated and in terms of his age, look at what president biden is doing. go through his schedule. look at the things he has accomplished, list them, and then talk about a man his age and what he is able to do at his age since age is relative. and as for donald trump, i think that there has got to be a point where if you're an organization that works around debating the issues and following the truth, i don't know why there are extensive interviews with this man when he can not even admit he lost the election. like that would be the end of any interview anywhere or it should be. and instead, he pontificates and rolls over people with lies and people continue to put him on as

if he is a truth teller and he's not a truth teller. >> you look at jonathan swan and the way he did it, and savannah guthrie, it continues on. michael beschloss, i don't know who's going to win next year. you don't know who's going to win. i remember when teddy kennedy was 20 points ahead of jimmy carter, that poll was right, and of course he served eight years. it is early. it's not quite as early as it was. i want to go back to this joe biden under estimation thing because we never go back. nobody looks at the headlines. nobody looks at the smart takes of all the, quote, truth tellers the media's bias, and they won't say the truth about biden. the media's bias, they won't say the truth about that, and biden, always underestimated his entire life mocked and ridiculed and

the guy somehow keeps winning. when i see a poll like this. i saw it, and i literally started laughing out loud. >> i did too. >> put it down. >> and, like, went out and had my sunday morning walk because it's a joke. but it continues. >> that was exactly the proper reaction, and i felt the same way. i would go back into earlier presidents. joey, you were an elected new congressman in 1995. how many people you talked to felt that there was a decent chance that the next year bill clinton would be reelected president by a substantial majority. as you remember, a lot of people were saying he lost congress in 1994. this is a lame duck president. he was asked at a press conference, are you relevant, yet he defeated bob dole next year by a substantial number. ronald reagan, the year he ran

for reelection, the recession was on, numbers were down. there wasn't much suggestion someone would run against him within the republican party but the numbers were not great, and walter mondale, the runner on the democratic side was full of optimism for some reason, and you remember barack obama most recently, 2011. i remember hearing in public, and also talking to some people on the obama white house staff, they in the fall of 2011, exactly the same point in this cycle, were very worried that obama could not make it for a second term. unemployment was still high. his numbers were not particularly great, nor were his approval numbers, and they were saying, you know, perhaps this is a case where obama is a one-term presidential. all i'm saying is that this is something that is almost built in to polling of incumbent presidents the year before. absolutely, totally agree with you, this is going to be an election that's going to go down to the wire, deeply divided

country. may be additionally complicated because of third party candidates, but i would not take very much of this very seriously right now. >> charlie sykes, you're in the one of the swingiest of the swing states, wisconsin right now. i'm curious, your take on the polling. >> well, i mean, obviously "the washington post" poll, the abc poll is fuel for bedwetting. let's think about the last three days, where we are. donald trump mocked a disabled veteran. called for the execution of general mark milley, has called for the complete shutdown of the government unless they defund the prosecution's against him. he has asked for all senate democrats to resign over the menendez case. he's talking about using government power to retaliate and shut down nbc for criticizing him. we look at this poll and we think he's got a reasonable shot to win the presidency. the abc poll is an outlier.

you look at the number of youth voters, and it tells you, no, there's no way that donald trump is winning the youth vote. this is not to be taken seriously, but the warning signs are out there, and the nbc poll, i think, underlines, along with other polls this is going to be a tight race. it is going to be a close race, as have all of our presidential races in recently years. it's going to come down to swing states. this notion that somehow there is no such thing as political gravity anymore is kind of fanciful. donald trump is out there reminding americans as loudly as possible that he is thoroughly dangerous and deranged. and at some point, i think that's going to get a little bit of traction. this is the season where you're firing blanks, you can say joe biden is too old, i'm not enthusiastic about him. a year from now, we'll be facing with the choice, are we going to put donald trump back into the

white house again? >> people aren't focused. they just aren't focused. cnn this will come as a shock to a lot of people watching this show. but i had -- i talked to a trend who's a college graduate yesterday who asked me about politics because, you know, i don't really follow politics a whole lot. i need to get focused. what do you want to know, and they told me, this was yesterday afternoon, i hear ron desantis may be running. is he going to run? people are not focused on the things that we talk about for four hours a day. i think you're right, charlie, when they do start focusing, and, i said, no, i don't think ron desantis is running, by the way, i don't think that's going to work out. but when they do start focusing, you are right, there is going to be a lot of people asking a lot of questions about, you know, do i really want to vote for a guy who's calling for the execution of this? all of the things you talked about. tyler, i will say, even the democrats i spoke to yesterday

who shared my view that it was no time for bedwetting, that they needed to take deep breaths and enjoy their sunday as long as they weren't in the middle of a tropical storm in the northeast, they did, though, there is a common refrain, even among those who think joe biden can win and will win, and that is this bidenomics message is not working. they need to stop trying to convince people how great the economy is when the people aren't buying how great the economy is. biden needs to roll up his sleeves and he needs to start pounding donald trump rhetorically head on. i think that was the biggest take away, again, even from people who still think joe biden is going to win this election, and donald trump, at the end of the day, won't be able to carry votes. get off bidenomics, it's not working. you need to get down to where the voters are and start punching back as hard as he's hitting you. >> yeah, i think that's a big

concern we hear from democrats across the board, and even some white house officials conceding a frustration that this message of bidenomics is not breaking through. we saw across the polls over the weekend, the economy is consistently one of the issues that trump outranks biden in terms of his handling of it. i think one of the frustrations for people inside the white house that i speak with is that there are some positive economic indicators, lower unemployment, you know, jobs being added each month. certain sectors coming back strong. continuing from this recovery from the pandemic, but biden not getting credit from any of that. i think there's a disconnect between the message sometimes the white house is trying to sell and the lived experience and reality for americans across the country, but i do think, joe, your earlier point about this frustration within biden's inner circle about him consistently being overestimated is really what is driving a lot of the messaging and the

thinking from inside the white house. a lot of those people lived through those primaries and election nights, and they feel the press, et cetera, continue to underestimate biden, and this time is no different. however, there are a lot of democrats that continue to say that they are worried about joe biden and his ability to defeat donald trump. they're concerned about what happened in 2016, the democrats just rallied around one candidate, and some people want some competition with joe biden. he's obviously not gotten that up to this point. how he returns to the campaign trail when he really needs to go head to head with donald trump, and there are persistent concerns about age, i think that is a real driving factor for a lot of democrats who are starring to get increasingly more nervous about his ability to defeat donald trump again. coming up, the writers strike is coming to a close, but the actors still on the picket line. an update on where things stand right now when "morning joe" returns. t now when "morning joe" returns.

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charlie mentioned mark milley, here's what donald trump said about joint chiefs chairman mike milley. after the atlantic profiled milley in a piece last week where he detailed how he had to protect the constitution from the former president, the revelations coming days before milley is set to retire as the top military officer, trump spent friday intensifying his attacks, denouncing military for the u.s. troop withdrawal against afghanistan while also taking on milley's record, and suggests that the general would have been put to death for communications with china.

the communications trump seems to be referencing to are reports that milley called his chinese counter part after trump lost the 2020 election to say he would warn china should trump decide to launch a military attack. meanwhile, in that same atlantic piece, milley also recounted an instance in 2019 where trump reportedly told him that a wounded soldier should be banned from public appearances. at the ceremony, wounded army captain louisa villa who suffered multiple injuries, including losing a leg in an ied attack in afghanistan and two heart attacks sang god bless america. milley said trump asked him afterwards why he brought, quote, people like that to the white house. >> and that is in line with obviously what we also heard from other generals who worked with donald trump. >> that's literally sick.

he's a sick man. >> it is also sick, of course, that he said that people who died in wars were losers. this is what he's done. so, katty kay, of course, it begs the question, these polls suggest that half of america is supporting a guy who says this about wounded warriors, who says he wants to terminate the constitution. >> cruel, sick and corrupt. >> who says the chairman of the joint chiefs should have been executed for telling china we're not going to attack them, just did not worry about it. that steals nuclear secrets, that steals war plans for invasions of iran, who a judge in new york state says that he raped a woman. you could go on and on and on, this is what we're dealing with, though, and i will say for those democrats who are concerned about political strategy, when you're running against that. >> focus on that. >> i'm not sure you should be talking so much about gdp growth

rates and let nerds like me do that. >> or the other candidate's age. >> i'm not sure you should be talking about the economy and their lives, they're not buying that. talk about what you're running against, and again, that's what i'm hearing from democrats in washington. >> yeah, i mean, the white house has been super careful about not wanting to joe biden to talk about the legal cases, the president talking about his legal cases, and that's understandable, he's trying to make a distinction between the previous administration and his own administration, and give merrick garland all the autonomy that the doj is rightly due. there's plenty of material there. when you look at the polls, there's plenty of wiggle room, it seems still within the republican party. 35% of republicans who are die hard trump supporters but that's a lot who are prepared to take a second look at another candidate

or would seem to be prepared to take a second look at another candidate for all of those kinds of reasons. we have had the conversations with people in the pentagon and military who were dismayed when the first reports came out about the kinds of things donald trump said to john kelly about his son had died, and why do people give their lives, i don't understand it, or what he said about john mccain being taken prisoner of war. for the die hard trump supporters, that makes no difference, they love him anyway. this primary season doesn't seem to have produced a viable, yet alternative candidate to donald trump. so we're looking, again, at that trump biden matchup, which polls suggest many americans feel discouraged by. on the economy, i think you're right, i mean, you know, the biggest threat i would have thought to joe biden at the moment is not so much the age question, but the federal reserve, they're going to keep interest rates high the next few years. potentially the auto workers

strike. there are economic clouds on the horizon that could be damaging to the president, and i think you have to be careful to tie himself to the message of bidenomics. >> exactly, and a lot of economists believing interest rates are going to continue up in the next year. the election season. michael beschloss, before we let you go. i would love to hear what your read s. obviously somebody who has closely followed american history through the years. what your take is on, basically, if you agree with nbc polls and most other polls, we have a deadlocked race between joe biden and a guy who's talking about the execution of chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, who talks about terminating the constitution, who has stolen nuclear secrets. i could go on and on. what's your best explanation to date for that because i don't think we can ever stop asking ourselves enough, why so many americans would continue to support somebody that is calling

for the termination of the constitution, stealing nuclear secrets, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. >> you couldn't be more right. you know, in the end, a year from now, what's going to be important about this election, whatever happens is if it's biden versus trump, you're going to have one candidate who loves democracy, who's been an effective leader in all sorts of ways for more than a half century, that's joe biden. on the other side, you're going to have donald trump who this is not a hidden plan. he has told us, if he is elected he's going to institute a presidential dictatorship. he's going to suspend the rule of law by ending an independent department of justice. he's going to suspend a military under civilian control with professional soldiers by saying he's going to have not a mark milley, but someone in the defense department, and someone in secretary of defense who will

follow his orders. if it's biden versus trump, this is going to be a choice between democracy or dictatorship. and if people vote in this election on any other basis, they're going to be making an extremely dangerous mistake. it's nearly certain that 2023 will go down as earth's warmest year on record. scientists say the soaring temperatures are unlike anything they have ever seen before. we'll speak with one of them about what's next when "morning joe" returns. them about what's next when "morning joe" returns

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democratic senator bob menendez of new jersey is expected to hold a press conference today to address the federal charges he faces as the growing calls for him to step down are met with some

hesitation. democratic senator john fetterman of pennsylvania was the first to call for menendez to step down over the weekend, releasing a statement that reads in part, quote, senator me mendez should resign. he's entitled to the presumption of innocence, but he cannot continue to wield influence over a national policy, especially given the serious and specific nature of the allegations. menendez also faces calls to resign from democrats in his home state, including governor phil murphy and representative andy kim who has announced plans to challenge menendez in the 2024 primary for his senate seat. senator menendez released a statement friday that reads in part, quote, those who believe in justice believe in innocence until proven guilty. i intend to continue to fight for the people of new jersey with the same success that i have had for the past five decades. he added, i'm not going

anywhere. some democrats like illinois senator dick durbin yesterday were more reluctant to call on menendez to step down. >> this is a very serious charge. there's no question about it. but it bears reminding us of what i have said about the indictments against donald trump, equally serious charges, these are, in fact, indictments that have to be proven under the rule of law. the person who is accused is entitled to the presumption of innocence, and it's the responsibility of the government to prove that case. i said that about donald trump, i'll say the same thing about bob menendez. in terms of resignation, that's a decision to be made by senator menendez and the people of new jersey. >> senator menendez and his wife nadine were indicted on federal charges friday that include conspiracy to commit bribery. according to the indictment, menendez allegedly used his position to enrich three new jersey businessmen and benefit the egyptian government.

during a search of the senator's home, investigators say they found gold bars and over $480,000 in cash. much of it stuffed into envelopes and hidden in clothing. senator menendez says he's confident he will be cleared on the charges. he and his wife are expected to appear in federal court on wednesday. >> nbc news correspondent, ali vitali, thank you so much, and it's surprising to at least me that there's only been one democratic senator calling for his resignation, especially considering past problems with past indictments. >> exactly right. i covered his last election cycle in new jersey, and there was concern on the ground from democratic voters i spoke to, but largely this idea of alleged corruption for them, at least at that point, was baked into the cake. i do think that pressure could ratchet up once lawmakers are

back in town. the fact that you've got senator fetterman hanging out alone as the only person within the senate to call for his colleague's resignation is of course notable. i think it's important, though, to sort of be clear here that menendez is saying he's not going anywhere from the senate but doing what he did the last time charges of corruption like this came forward which is stepping down as head of the powerful foreign relations committee. he's at least not on that committee while all of this works its way through. i think if you look over to the other chamber, you have other lawmakers calling foris resignation, and of course you've still got andy kim, the congressmanrom new jersey saying even though he didn't think he would be mounting a bid like this, he's willing to challenge him. it now at least democrats have an alternative even if menendez himself says he's not going anywhere and he's not facing pressure at least yet from his colleagues to step down. two of the most prolific writers today, james patterson and mike luplica join our

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block in there, and down it goes, at the 30, this is the dynamic hill, he's in for 6. >> those are some of the biggest plays by the winning teams across the nfl yesterday including the first of ten touchdowns scored by the miami dolphins, one of the most lopsided games in nfl history. the dolphins, 726 yards on offense as they just crush the denver broncos. point total is a franchise record, the most scored by any nfl team in a game since 1966. let's bring in right now the host of pablo tory finds out. there's so much to talk to you about. >> yes. >> and i've got to say, i've got to say that there are a lot of times you look at nfl, you're watching red zone, you're like, man, one great team after another. i saw a lot of bad teams yesterday. i did. i saw some remarkable

performances, but, man, i saw some bad teams playing. that colts game was ugly. i mean, the vikings. you look at the ravens, there was just some ugly play, and instead of starting with the ugliest game of all, which we all know what that was, let's talk about one of the remarkable performances we've seen in quite some time. that's the dolphins. that's tua. he started 16 for 16, and it's just unbelievable. it's that two-step drop, boom. two-step drop, boom. what a performance. >> joe, i have never seen a game like this. i have been watching sports for a long time. i've never seen something like this, and you know it's ridiculous, he elected to not kick the field goal and tie the all time points record, 73, and he was hailed as mercy. he was hailed as class. it's just, 70 points is not a thing i expected to see in the

nfl. that is joey chestnut level numbers. okay, that is hot dog contest level numbers, and so the dolphins, look, the story for the dolphins for people who don't know. tua tagovailoa has been derided to the point there's an online movement on nfl twitter, which is a dangerous point, tanon, they have been truthers about how good he is. their guy looks like the mvp. their coach looks like the coach of the year, and, joe, you know this, the broncos aren't a team of scrubs. this is russell wilson's team, sean payton's team, a team that had the biggest trade in nfl history leading into last season. last season was obviously a disaster. this season is even worse. so 50 points is the degree of blowout there. it is unreal. but it happened last night. >> man, i will tell you what

dolphin fans were saying in tua's first year, even into the second year, just unmerciful against this guy. he can't throw a pass. >> correct. >> and last year, of course, we thought by the end of the season, he wasn't going to come back. he's had so many concussions, but what they have done in miami is set up an offense that requires him to set back. two steps, boom, let it go, and it works because he's got extraordinary wide receivers. >> yes. and jaylen waddle, by the way, his second best receiver wasn't playing in this game yesterday afternoon. tyreek hill is one of the fastest people i have ever seen on the planet, and you plug in running backs, he makes go far. in terms of just the perfect sports car to drive around miami, tua tagovailoa is the driver you want, because he's accurate, he has the arm. anybody who doubted him, we feel like we are the ones having our brains eaten a little bit by the

internet. >> they're obviously the best team in football right now. the worst team in football right now, the new york jets. that jets/patriots game, talk about some ugly football yesterday, ugliest i've seen. that was a sad, sad game between two sad teams. >> the jets have not beaten the patriots in 15 straight games. there was vulnerability here. this was a game that was close to the end. you notice when you're searching your soul wondering why god has done this to you as a jets fan, you notice that the guy who's playing quarterback for you is a movie you've seen before. i don't want to be mean to zach wilson, but when the guy in the stands is losing his teeth because he is angry because zach wilson is someone they've lied to themselves about. this gentleman is thinking to himself, why are we still

starting zach wilson? i get it, i get it. they don't have another option right now, but sign someone off the street, truly because the zach wilson experience -- look, i have to convince my mom at some point, mom, i'm not going to law school, and she refused to believe me. that's the level of delusion you have to have around zach wilson. still ahead, we've been talking about the brand new polling from nbc news. up next steve kornacki joins us to break down those numbers. jo to break down those numbers. what causes a curve down there?

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we're going to look at the wage gap now, specifically as it pertains to medicine. according to a recent study, female doctors make 74 cents for

every dollar that male physicians earn. that's just one of the realities the women in medicine summit is trying to change. the event tackles the big issues of gender bias in the medical field, bringing together hundreds of women and men from across the country to deal with this. joining us now we have the president of women in medicine medical oncologist dr. jane. the attendees leave with skills they can take home with them and it creates communities as well. i know there was a special panel on the state of women's health with the roe decision, teaching women how to advocate for themselves and for patients. can you share some of the skills and advice that was learned at the summit? >> absolutely. thanks so much for having me onto talk about this important topic. so the biggest challenge is not only that women in medicine

don't know how to advocate for themselves as well as they should, but the systems in which we work are often stacked against us. some skills taught at the summit include negotiating for yourself, navigating gaslighting versus impostor syndrome versus bullying, figuring out if you're dealing with a whisper network where people are trying to sabotage your career behind the scenes. also we talk about mentor ship and getting women to the next level and advocating to lift up the next generation. we also do a lot of allyship work. we invite people of all genders to come to the summit to learn how they can be better allies for their female colleagues and work within the system for real systemic change. we don't just need to work on helping women get better at advancing, because that's not the problem. the problem is the system. so a lot of the skills they learn are how to take this

information back to their institutions and educate and empower people within the institutions to work toward systemic change that can make a real difference locally and nationally. >> i would think it's not just financial wage gap, but that also when it comes to being able to know your value and communicate it effectively in this field, it's about what shifts you guys work and what jobs you take on. does it translate past money? are some of the problems within the actual job itself? >> absolutely. women in medicine are often voluntold to get the institutions more money and help with retention. during the pandemic we saw a huge increase in the amount of invisible work these women were doing. that directly impacts their ability to be promoted and to

get into leadership positions. we have a huge gap when it comes to women who are full professors, deans, chairs. so it happens in academia and outside of it. we also see a huge gap in awards. a study out of the university of chicago showed if you just nominate more women for awards, they get more awards. so there's gaps all across the board, not just money. >> i love that. when you nominate women, they actually get the awards. doctor, we also hear that women of color are particularly underrepresented in the medical field and have worse health outcomes and treatment than white women. can you talk about that? >> absolutely. one of the things we had this year was the state of women's health discussion. the challenges that we see that black women, maternal mortality and morbidity is much, much higher. there are numerous studies that

have shown that when physicians that treat the patients that look like the patients, there are better outcomes. we want to get more women of color into medicine and promoted so they can be the decisionmakers and help address the fact that we are not serving our underserved communities the way we should and we need representation at every level to make sure those patients are getting taken care of and we don't have this huge maternal mortality gap. >> dr. shika jane, thank you so much. we'd love to put your findings from the summit on the know your value website. thanks for being on "morning joe." we appreciate it. we're now into the fourth hour of "morning joe." 6:00 a.m. on the west coast and 9:00 a.m. on the east coast. this morning we've been digging into new polling from nbc news

that shows president joe biden and former president trump deadlocked in a hypothetical 2024 election matchup. voters also have concerns about the current president's age and mental fitness. for the numbers, let's bring in steve kornacki at the big board. steve, dig into these numbers. >> some interesting findings here. a couple headlines here. on the republican side, first of all, here is where the republican race stands in our poll. nationally, at least, donald trump with an enormous lead over his nearest competitor ron desantis, a 43-point gap between trump at 59%, desantis at 16, everybody else in single digits. this has been steady and consistent for months for trump. back in april, trump's lead over desantis at this point was just 15 points. desantis was over 30%.

desantis's support has come down basically in half since then and trump's lead has basically tripled since april. there have been indictments since april. there was that first republican debate that donald trump skipped. a lot of things happened that rival candidates were counting onto make this race tighter. instead, it's going in the opposite direction. another debate looming in a couple of days, another debate that donald trump is going to be skipping, it appears. if republicans do indeed nominate the former president for a rematch with the former president, we find biden and trump tied 46-46 in this poll. there have been several other polls out recently from other organizations that show a similar result here, a biden/trump neck-and-neck race. the significance is if you look back to 2020 and really the year

leading into the 2020 election, this is not what national polling between biden and trump looked like. we have 11 nbc news polls between the fall of 2019 and the eve of the election in 2020 matching joe biden against donald trump. i can tell you biden led every single one of them, never by fewer than six points and by as many as 11 points. in every reputable national polling average from the fall of 2019 until election day 2020, joe biden led the entire way in matchups against donald trump. so this is not to say that donald trump is the favorite to win. this is a tied race in this national poll here. it's just to say that the dynamic between the two of them at this point seems to be a little bit different than it was four years ago, at least what's appearing in the poll, in our poll and in other polls. again, this is coming after

multiple indictments of donald trump. we wondered what effect this would have in his standing against polling. this is a dead even race in our polling here. a big thing that's driving this is what's different from 2020, joe biden is the incumbent now, not donald trump, and it's joe biden with a 41% approval rating in our poll, 56% disapprove, the highest disapproval rate biden has racked up in our polling. a big cause of that is the economy. when biden took over, the country was right down the middle over whether they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the economy. now barely a quarter of voters say they are satisfied with the economy. then there's also this. you know, we've talked about donald trump, about the indictments, about the looming trials, about the legal issues, about january 6th. a majority there, 62%, almost 2

out of 3 voters say that is a major or moderate concern to them as they think about the 2024 election. but look what's 12 points higher, joe biden's age and fitness for office. nearly 3 out of 4 voters say that is a major or moderate concern. joe biden is 80 years old. donald trump turned 77 this summer. but the number for trump in terms of concern about age and fitness is 27 points lower than it is for biden. again, that number for biden higher than we were seeing when he was a candidate in 2019 and 2020. lastly, at least at this point, this is where democrats have work to do. if you're an optimistic democrat, you'd say, well, we'll do this work, but there is an enthusiasm gap. you ask folks on a scale of 1 to 10, how interested are you in

the election, these the percent who answered 9 or ten. there is a gap there. one of the areas where the gap is most pronounced is among white voters. among non-white voters it's barely half. obviously a big part of the democratic coalition involves non-white voters, particularly african-american voters. you see the gap in terms of interest at this point. you see democrats start to talk about targeting the black vote in particular, trying to get that black vote mobilized early in this campaign. that's a big portion of the lag for democrats right now in terms of interest in this election. >> let's bringing in reverend al right now. this is something we've heard about in 2020 as well as over

the past several years. there's sort of this enthusiasm gap among people of color. and yet in 2022 obviously that vote held up for democrats. but there seems to be a growing concern among democratic activists you talk to and people inside the biden campaign that there is some fading of support from especially black men, hispanic men. what's driving that right now? >> i think a lot of what is driving it -- and we talked about it last week at the congressional black caucus meeting -- is that, one, a lot of the things that were done that advanced the interest of the black community has not been

messaged to those on the ground. i think a lot of beltway knowledge is not being translated on the ground. black unemployment is the lowest it's ever been, but if people don't know that, then they will not rally around that. >> why is that not getting through? go ahead. >> obviously the messaging is not coming. the strategy of how they're getting messages out there and messengers with credibility is not there. i think the fact that they're not really taking about how we lost affirmative action and they're actually going after states and companies that are dealing with dei programs. i'm going to court tomorrow in atlanta with two women that formed a fund called the

fearless fund where they were actually giing upstart money to black women to start their businesses. they're being sued by the same people that did the affirmative action case. but the administration ought to be talking about this. you're stopping people from going into business when conservatives say that's what we ought to be doing? these are the kinds of things that fire people up, but they can't get fired up if you don't turn the burner on. >> steve, let's also talk about the "washington post" abc news poll. it's interesting, pollsters said that's an outlier, yet they said their last poll was an outlier too. if i were running a casino, i would open it up and give people 10-1 odds if they wanted to give joe biden nine points in any election. that's not going to happen.

there's not a pollster in america that thinks that's going to happen. looking inside those numbers, why has that poll been so askew over the last two months? >> it's not just the last two months. do you remember october of 2020, abc news put out a poll from wisconsin that had joe biden ahead by 17 points? >> that's a great point. let's unpack this. if there were a trend line on why polls were so off, then we could say, oh well, you know, there's the bradley effect, now it's the trump effect. but we can't say that, because in 2020 they were wildly off to joe biden's detriment or benefit . in 2022, they were wildly off to joe biden's detriment. biden and the democrats did much

better. but this abc poll was way off in wisconsin. i remember tweeting right after i saw that and said i don't believe in any polls anymore. i'm kind of feeling like that even more three years later because of what happened in 2022. where's the ghost in the machine? what's going on here? >> let's be careful how we talk about the polls here. you're calling the abc news poll an outlier and abc news and the "washington post" is calling it an outlier and it certainly looks like an outlier in the sense that there's no other poll out there that looks like. let me turn to our poll between trump and biden. we have it at 46-46. there are multiple other recent credible national pollsters who have found the same thing, including a cnn poll recently, a "wall street journal" poll recently. everybody has their favorite

poll average, but they're pretty much in agreement right now. just to take the rcp poll average right now, when they average them all together, donald trump is 1.4 points ahead of joe biden in the national polling right now. now, by contrast, i went back and looked at this same day september 25th, 2019. they matched up biden and trump in a poll average. the poll average back then was biden plus ten. as i said, biden led the poll average the entire way, gate to wire, 2019 and 2020, not a single day donald trump had the lead in the poll average and biden did. now, we say the polls missed in 2020. in some states the polls were way off, although nationally joe biden did win the popular vote by 4 1/2 points. there werethe

polling was pretty spot on. it showed a biden lead consistently and biden did get a solid popular vote victory in 2020. in 2022, we have to separate where the totality of the polling was in 2022 versus perhaps where the punditry was. our final nbc news "wall street journal" poll on the generic ballot in 2022 asking folks are you going to vote democrat or republican, we had the democrats ahead by two points in 2022. if you added up the popular vote for house in 2022, the republicans actually won it by about two points. again, if you looked at the poll average at the finish line in 2022, it was basically pick your average here, it was between a one and three-point advantage for republicans. the final result actually fell

right where that poll average was. i don't think the polls were bad in 2022. we could talk about the punditry and said there were republicans and even some democrats who were way off in their analysis or expectations based on the history of what they were seeing. i don't think it was the polling. >> i've heard democratic pollsters for years now saying a tie goes to trump, a tie goes to the republicans. if you see a 46-46 split, then donald trump's going to easily win the electoral vote contest. is that your take of it, or is that an oversimplification? >> again, it was a 4 1/2 point biden win in the national popular vote in 2020, and you saw how narrow it was in the

electoral college where basically a flip of 44,000 votes across three states would have made donald trump president. by that logic, yes, if you move the national popular vote 4 1/2 points, all of those would presumably flip. that's possible, but the other possibility i would keep in mind is potential shifts that we've seen with nonwhite voters and particularly with hispanic voters. if you look at big states with large hispanic populations, california more than any other, a state that joe biden won by 30 points over donald trump, let's say trump and republicans continue to make inroads with the hispanic vote, trump still gets slaughtered in california, but a 30-point loss for trump becomes a 20-point loss. a ten-point change in a state

the size of california can alter the popular vote math a little bit. there are blue states where trump could shrink the margin with nonwhite voter gains without altering the electoral college. it's a long way of saying i respect there's still a republican advantage there, but i think this change with nonwhite and hispanic voters adds a wrinkle to that where i wouldn't be totally sure of it. >> thank you. separate new polling is also providing insight into how americans feel about the state of democracy heading into an election year. with us now with those numbers editor at large for the nonprofit newsroom erin haines. tell us what your polling found. >> we're doing our second annual poll at the 19th and definitely

don't feel like it's an outlier. our first poll las year helped us to predict that abortion was going to be on the ballot for so many voters in the midterms. this poll that we have out this year shows that democracy really is on the ballot for voters headed into 2024. even though you don't have a majority of americans that feel this way, we have 45% of u.s. adults saying that democracy is working for them. that's up from 40% last time we did this poll in 2022. similarly, you have a boost in u.s. adults saying that the economy is working for them specifically. that number is up 40% this year versus 36% last year. this is a boost that is being driven largely by democrats. the number on democracy is up 14 percentage points among democrats, and the number is up

in terms of the economy for americans over 65 eight points. what this says is you have issues that are important to voters that they may be tieing to candidates and candidate performance, and together those things may be galvaniing people heading into 2024. it's still 406 days away, so there's a lot of time for candidates to make their case as to why they should be the next president of the united states. >> 406 days. they have a long time to start focusing in on the race. can you unpack a little bit more the economic numbers for me? if you were showing numbers showing that people are more optimistic about the u.s. economy than they were a year ago, how does that tally with all of the other polls that have just come out and repeateded

polls showing people don't think joe biden is doing a good job on the economy, how does that work? >> again, it's the issue versus the candidate. you had reverend sharpton talking about how maybe the administration is not doing the best for making the case for how they are directly responsible for improvements in the economy. we're talking to voters saying in their specific communities, they are seeing things like housing improve. they are seeing more people in their community that are finding jobs and getting themselves backing to work. i think as they are observing what is happening in their own lives, they are feeling that they are noticing a difference. the question around democracy, i think, absolutely depends on who you ask. for people who see this administration as trying to make

it easier for them to vote, safer for them to vote or pushing back against kind of the big lie and false questions of election integrity, they feel like democracy is working for them. for voters who are maybe still aligned with the former president and believe they are somehow being disenfranchised, those are people who maybe think democracy is not working for them. to the extent that these two combined issues become the kind of thing people are hand bringing over over the kitchen table, i think we could see that motivating people in a one-two punch next year. >> thank you for being on this morning. we appreciate it. and the writers guild of america has struck a tentative deal with hollywood studios that would end the writers strike.

>> reporter: overnight, the writers strike evening its final act. the wga agreeing to a tentative three-year deal with the amptp. it comes nearly 150 days after film and tv writers walked out on hollywood and hit the picket lines. while specifics are not yet known, the deal likely promises higher residuals from streaming, higher wages and protections against a.i. in an e-mail to members, the wga saying, though we are eager to share the details of what has been achieved with you, we cannot do that until the last "i" is dotted. still, writers will not return to work just yet as they wait for a final contract to be drafted and voted on by members. the union still encouraging

writers to join the actors who remain on strike, meaning it could take weeks or months for hollywood to see a full reboot. writers and actors taking to social media overnight to express their relief including michael shea of "saturday night live" and actress mindy cayling. while daytime and late night talk shows will likely be the first back on air, experts say the summer stoppage in tv production means new episodes of hit scripted shows may not return until next year. the hollywood shutdown having big effects on the big screen too. studios already pushing back some major movie releases to 2024 including blockbuster sequels like "mission impossible." now hollywood is one step closer to being back in action. >> let's bring in founding partner at the media venture

puck, matthew belloni. what are some of the sticking points and what's going to get the entire union, including other shows, back on the air? >> right now it's just a ratification process. the writers guild has to present the deal to its members. we expect that that will be approved. typically they are. the real question is that the actors are still on strike, so the studios are going to move onto the actors. they have some very specific issues the writers did not have. they want an 11% wage increase. they also have some a.i. issues with their name, image and likeness that the writers don't have. so there are still some sticky issues. but the sense in hollywood is that many of the terms the writers agreed to can be used as

a template for the actors. so that negotiation should go a lot more quickly than the writers did. >> there's a feeling that the actors were going out on strike on some very important issues for them and for their craft, but that they were doing it really more than anything to be locked arm in arm with the writers. do you suspect they too will follow the writers pretty quickly if the writers settle it, you'll see the actors following up and settling it as well? >> yeah. the sense is that the ctors will go more quickly and if everything goes according to hopes, that they'll be back by thanksgiving. >> i'm going to move off of the strike and the actors and the

writers and talk instead about the murdochs, only because you wrote such a fascinating report about the succession of it all and sort of trying to figure out the votes and everything else. it's interesting how art imitates life and often makes life even more fascinating than it is. but you say there really are some parallels between the roys and the murdochs. tell us. >> absolutely. just like on "succession" there's an issue here, because when rupert ultimately passes away, the shares in the company via trust go equally to his four adult children, one of whom, lachlan murdoch, is currently running the company. the other three are wild cards.

james murdoch is known to want to take down fox news and turn it into a force for good. we don't know quite what that means. it's really down to the daughter, elizabeth murdoch and prudence who is the oldest daughter and could be a wildcard here, because there is no tie-breaker mechanism. they need three votes. if james is able to convince his sisters to come on his side, they could take other fox news and either shut it down, sell it or change it into something that it is very much not today. but lachlan wants to win them over and keep fox news as it is today, or he might even potentially want to sell it off potentially to another conservative media owner that would run it as it is today. >> you talk about life imitating

art or vice versa. finally, i just want to end with something you said at the end of your post, which was that when rupert murdoch leaves the stage for good, that's the last of the bigger-than-life media barons out there. >> rupert murdoch has his hand on everything that his outlets produce. he's in there rewriting "new york post" headlines and he is the hand behind the hand at fox news. he ultimately okayed the call for joe biden on election night in arizona. he does not like donald trump, but he is beholden to donald trump, because donald trump drives ratings on fox news. so he's in this very odd situation that now he is, quote, unquote, retired, but nobody

expects him to go into the sunset. he is active behind the scenes. he told his staff as much when he stepped down. the real action will happen once rupert ultimately passes away. he's 92 years old. then we'll find out what the future is for the fox empire. >> thank you. we have an update on the united autoworkers union, expanding its strike against two of detroit's big three car makers. workers for gm and stellantis walked off the job on friday, about 5600 workers, on top of the nearly 13,000 who hit the picket lines at three plants week ago. the union spared ford in the expanded strike, saying the automaker is, quote, serious

about reaching a deal. the uaw is demanding a 40% wage increase along with shorter workweeks and better retirement benefits. it's not clear exactly what ford is offering, but the union says some of its demands are being met. ford echoes that sentiment, adding, there are still significant gaps to close. we will be following that. and president biden will be joining the striking autoworkers on the picket lines tomorrow. medhi hasan was on friday and was talking about that. >> biden wrote, quote, it's time for a win-win agreement that keeps american automanufacturing thriving with well-paid union jobs. donald trump claims biden is only making the trip because of

him. the republican frontrunner announced last week he will visit detroit on wednesday skipping the second primary debate. do you believe that, or do we think he's scared to debate? coming up on "morning joe" for the first time since the deadly maui wildfires, some residents are finally returning, but officials are now warning the place they once called home will be unrecognizable. plus, why was former trump chief of staff mark meadows reportedly burning documents in a fireplace? we'll take a look at what cassidy hutchinson describes as the paranoid state of his last days in office. >> she said reportedly that he smelled like he'd been around a campfire when he got home. also ahead, authors james

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this morning in hawaii, authorities will begin allowing the first residents to return to their properties in lahaina. nearly seven weeks after the deadliest u.s. wildfire in more than a century devastated the area, the tragedy claimed the lives of at least 97 people and decimated over 2,000 structures. for many, this will be their first glimpse of the area since the fire tore through the historic town. some residents say they are concerned about climate change as they face the daunting task

of rebuilding. >> everyone needs to figure out what can we do so this never happens again, not just fire, but other parts of climate change is happening to us here. >> joining us now presidential distinguished professor and director for the center for science, sustainability and the media, university of pennsylvania's michael mann. his new book is titled "our fragile moment." it's great to have you on the show and talk about your book. i guess the first question is the question that resident had. i mean, how do you rebuild in lahaina and protect from climate change? >> especially when you consider we had the hottest summer ever, the hottest june, july and

august ever. regardless of where the damage is, we know that it's coming, it's increasing every year. the data shows that. >> thanks, guys. you're absolutely right. we've just been through this unprecedented summer of dangerous, damaging, deadly extreme weather events, the disaster in maui. here in new york, down in philadelphia where i live, we had the worst air quality in the world for several days because of the canadian wildfires, driven by an epic drought. we are reaping what we've sown. we are seeing the damaging impacts of climate change today. sort of the message of "our fragile moment" is that it's not too late. it might seem like we're past the point of no return, but when we look to the past and look what has happened on this planet for billions of years, it turns out it teaches us lots of

lessons. one of those lessons is there is resilience of our environment and our climate to a point, and we are still within that sort of regime of resilience. but we will soon leave it if we fail to ramp down carbon emissions dramatically over the next decade. >> on this side of the atlantic, it was an awful summer. it was bad in europe as well. yet, all the indications are that the world is heating up faster and faster. particularly in europe we see politicians rowing back commitments to climate change, the british prime minister and the european union slowing down their commitments to get to net zero. how do politicians bring people along with them so they don't feel green policies are an electoral liability? >> it's all about the messaging. what we haven't done a good job

of collectively, scientists and news folks, is really driving home the tremendous damage and cost that we are paying right now for the damaging impacts of these extreme weather events. those costs in tens of billions of dollars far outweigh any cost of taking action. in fact, taking action isn't even a cost. it's an investment in a clean, renewable energy economy. the point of my book is if you feel despair, if you feel like we are doomed, the science doesn't tell us that. the obstacles aren't physical or technological. we have the solutions to this problem. the obstacles at this point are entirely political. political obstacles can be overcome. we have an upcoming election where voters will have an

opportunity to choose the path we take. do we want to continue down this road of climate denialism and inaction in an ever-mortgaged planet, or do we want to invest in a better planet for ourselves, our children and our grandchildren? it's still up to us. >> on that line of thought and talking about messaging, in various communities there's more impact than others because they're closer to certain things in the community. i raise issues about the green movement and some blacks say, well, that's not our issue, when it's more of our issue than others. how do we deal with breaking the message down so people understand this is about them, not just something they're watching on the news about maui? >> it's such an important point. i live in philadelphia. if ever there was a city where we can witness the tremendous injustice associated with these extreme weather events wrougt by

climate change, it's philadelphia. the extreme flooding in the wake of hurricane ida, it was minority communities who felt the brunt of that. the urban heat islands, it turns out that redlining was done in such a way in the past so that the areas that are primarily minority populations are subject to the worst urban heat island effect in the summer. this is a tremendous climate justice component. we need to bring those voters on board. they need to understand this next election is about them as much as anyone. >> the new book officially out tomorrow is "our fragile moment, how lessons from earth's past can help us survive the climate crisis." up next, a look at some of the stories making front-page headlines across the country,

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former white house aide cassidy hutchinson is revealing more about her time in the west wing during the trump presidency. she sat down for an interview with the "new york times" ahead of the release of her book entitled "enough." hutchinson told the times the administration was awash in paranoia with her boss, former chief of staff mark meadows, and others refusing to dispose of daily litter in, quote, burn bags for fear that some from the deep state might intercept the contents. she wrishat meadows burned

so many documents in his fireplace in the final days of the trump presidency that his wife complained to her about how expensive it had become to dry clean the, quote, bonnfire aroma from his suits. >> burning the documents. >> this is like a scene out of "patton" when patton is coming and has to burn all the documents. this is insanity going on in the white house. >> yeah. then he goes home and his clothes smell so much of burning that his wife starts complaining about the dry cleaning bills, that his suits have to go. >> there are bigger issues. >> but cassidy hutchinson is such an amazing insight into what was happening those crazy days around january 6th in between the election, the

attempts to overturn the election and then the run-up to january 6th, not to mention what she went through with rudy giuliani in that tent. it's the granular details of what happens that makes a witness compelling, right? i'm sure any prosecutor or defense attorney would tell you that, if you have a witness who has these specific details, it tells a story that gets people interested. >> it absolutely does. again her book is coming out, it's entitled "enough," like done with it, time to let it all come out. now to a look at the morning papers. we begin in connecticut where "the new day" reports schools across the u.s. are set to run out of the record $190 billion in federal aid they received during the pandemic. larger school systems such as new york city estimate they will have a $700 million shortfall by next september. on average, schools will have to

reduce costs by about $1200 per student. that could lead to staffing cuts and rethinking curriculums. in colorado, the gazette has a front page feature on engineers working to maintain the country's aging nuclear arsenal. they will spend over $700 billion over the next ten years to replace most of its nuclear defenses, including getting new stealth bombers and submarines, the most ambitious nuclear weapons effort since the manhattan project. and in louisiana, the and in louisiana, "the advocate" leads with health experts bracing for an early rsv season in the state. children's hospital new orleans says 14% of rsv tests came back positive last week. that's the highest the hospital has seen since last summer.

the cdc says statewide the average number of positive tests jumped from 0% at the beginning of the month to 16%. in nevada "the las vegas review journal" reports usher will reform at next year's super bowl half-time show. the nfl made the announcement yesterday saying the r&b superstar will headline the show at allegiant stadium coinciding with his ninth album entitled "coming home," his first since 2016. you like that, usher? i like it. still ahead best-selling author -- >> i was hoping for the defranco family. >> or mike and james. >> mike lube ka and james patterson have seemed up for their next novel. we'll talk about it, "12 months to live." it, "12 months to live.

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. welcome back. joining us now "new york times" best-selling authors james patterson and mike lupica. >> it's like a buddy act. >> it is. >> instead of driving across the country, right, trying to turn in one of them who is a fugitive, they just write books. i've got to ask before we even talk about this book, how do you write so many books? you all are so prolific. you must sit at a desk all day -- >> yeah, that's exactly right. somebody said you're lucky if you find something you like to do. you should know this, joe. it's unbelievable that people pay you to do it. mike and i love doing this. >> that's true for us. >> i don't want to waste too much time talking about the book -- i've got to tell you, james, i told mike this story last week. i'm always sending my kids inspirational stories, inspirational lessons, inspirational clips. after doing that, after throwing bread out on the water, it

finally came back. my daughter sends me this story, and it's about following your dreams, but being smart enough to do it in a realistic thing. there was once this advertising person, da, da, da. it's telling your incredible story about you had this dream, you kept your job, you pursued your dream and did the job. when i got to the punch line, it was a remarkable story. great story. >> i was in advertising, but i've been clean for over 25 years. >> all right. "12 months to live." tell us about it. >> mike. >> jim has a saying -- jim has a lot of sayings. one of them is people talk about throwing everything except the kitchen sink at readers. we throw the kitchen sink, too. we've got a great character named jane smith, given a potentially fightal diagnosis. she finds out what may be more fatal for this criminal defense

attorney, her own client may be trying to kill her. it's a problem for jane, but jane is a problem solver. she was a hockey player at a great school, joe, boston college. >> of course. >> one thing that was always said about her, when she goes into the corner, she comes out with the puck. we throw everything at this character. when jim says it's his favorite character, it has to be my favorite character, too. >> why is this your favorite character? >> because she's so strong. she's so strong. she's been a cop, a private investigator, now she's an attorney. she does get a death sentence in this, but she's not going gentle into the good night. you want every book you want to be entertaining, but this one really turned out great. it's my favorite book that we've done or that i've done. i love alex cross, but jane smith i like as much or better.

i tell you, this is a weird thing and it's relative to the show. we're getting this constant stuff of bad news, bad news, bad news. we did an event yesterday at a big book store, and people literally go up and cheered -- out of their seats, about 700 people because we talked about you deserve -- we need a break. we deserve entertainment. obviously we're prejudice. we think 12 months to live is great entertainment. we can't just have this toxic stuff all day. literally in our house we have msnbc all day. it's too much. >> it's never too much. mike, it is never too much. i take jim's point. i've been in a writing partnership for a few years, too. how do you do it together? what do you both bring to the table, mike? >> well, i write the music and jim writes the lyrics, katty.

we both know that story drives everything. jim is a bear for outlines. we start out with an extensive outline. we never stick to the whole thing, but it's a great template. we were fascinated by the idea of this undefeated criminal defense attorney who is now -- she is fearful of her own client and dealing with all these health issues. jim is right, we all have a sell-by date. what if somebody moved yours up? what would you do? by the way, "12 months to live" is out now. next year it's 8 months. then it's going to be 4. and then one week. it's going to be a much shorter novel. >> it's like the writers room, almost every show, most of the movies, there will be several writers. we talk on the phone half a dozen times a day. it's like a writers room, only over the phone. >> the new novel entitled "12

months to live" is on sale today. james patterson, mike lupica. thank you both so much. it's always great to have you both on the show this morning. that does it for us this morning. >> great to have you on the show this morning. >> great to have you on, too; i think. >> you think? >> we have some issues. >> we has why didn't we do this last year? before you were preventing migraine with qulipta®? remember the pain? cancelled plans? the worry? that was then. and look at me now. you'll never truly forget migraine. but qulipta® reduces attacks,

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