for this position. and so, would obviously end up having to deal with those types of questions as well. >> exactly. mark murray, it is also very expensive for the party. it is going to be a big contest and the most expensive state arguably in terms of the media markets. thank you very much, mark murray. that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." follow the show at mitchell reports and msnbc reports at msnbc underscore reports. "chris jansing reports" starts right now. hello. i'm chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york. and we begin this hour with the battle lines being drawn in the house. and kevin mccarthy's job is now at stake. we're keeping a very close eye on the house floor because as early as this hour, there could be a vote to remove mccarthy as speaker. despite clearly being on the brink, mccarthy himself appeared confident as he spoke to

reporters a little bit earlier. >> why do it today? the idea that you -- >> why not? >> rip the band-aid off here or what? >> why not? i think matt has planned this all along. didn't matter what we transpired. >> you're calling his bluff? >> yeah. >> mccarthy or one of his allies can delay by asking the house to kill gaetz's resolution. but he has little chance of winning that vote without at least some support from democrats. and they have been clear this is the republicans' mess to figure out. they won't save him. today, gaetz's republican colleagues acknowledge whether mccarthy can survive or what happens if he doesn't is up in the air. >> most members in the room are solidly supporting speaker mccarthy. there was an admission by matt gaetz, who is my friend, that there is no plan. there is no one that has stepped

forward to run. there is no one that is coming out saying i'll be speaker and rallying support within the conference. >> so there you have it. joining us now, nbc's ali vitali as she has been living on capitol hill. brendan buck former aide to house speakers paul ryan and jim boehner and msnbc political analyst, john that lemire, host of "way too early" and former republican congressman carlos curbelo of florida, an msnbc political analyst. so, ali, where are we and what happens next? >> those are all questions that we don't yet know the answer to. at least what happens next, because where we are right now is trying to count the votes as unofficially as we can because we're talking to a lot of these republicans. we can count up to five of them who say they're going to vote against mccarthy, and you're

right to point out that this is going to happen in two phases. in terms of what happens at some point this hour, we're going to see a mccarthy ally, likely put up a motion to get rid of this motion, say, hey, let's not vote on dispelling mccarthy from his job. that's likely to fail based on all of my and our team's reporting because mccarthy doesn't have the votes. democrats are going to all stand together and at least five republicans are going to stand with them, which then means that we'll proceed on to the actual motion to vacate, the actual vote that would decide whether or not mccarthy gets to stay in his job as speaker. again, right now, in my unofficial whip count, he does not have the votes to keep his job. it is something he was told directly by reporters outside of the meeting and that footage you're showing. mccarthy was told and he literally said if five republicans stand with all democrats to oust me, then i lose my job. those are the stakes right now. everyone is aware from mccarthy

to gaetz to everyone in between, and now it is just a question of if anything changes, once they're actually on the floor. mccarthy says this is his opportunity to call gaetz and others' bluff, okay. but it doesn't seem like they're backing down. at least not yet. >> yeah, so brendan, what kinds of conversations do you imagine are going on behind closed doors? among allies and mccarthy, as he tries to save his gavel? >> yeah, you know, there was a really positive conference meeting rally behind kevin mccarthy among republicans this morning. that really doesn't matter. this all comes down to democrats right now. it is in their hands of whether mccarthy is removed and what would first timer for something like this to happen. now, democrats have been very clear they don't like kevin mccarthy, they think he has left the house in a very poor way. they're upset with him about what happened on january 6th. they're upset about the impeachment inquiry. they have a long list of grievances with him and they want to make him pay for that.

and at some point, though, i imagine there is going to be some level of shuttle diplomacy going on from some mccarthy allies to some of the more moderate democrats, swing seat democrats, who may understand that this is actually bad for the institution this is a bad precedent to set. and that whatever comes after kevin mccarthy, a matt gaetz chosen speaker is probably no better for them than kevin mccarthy. now whether that's going to work or not, i don't know. but if this vote is happening, i can't believe mccarthy is going to roll the dice completely without putting in some effort from his allies. he can't make any negotiations. i don't think he can cut a deal. but at least try to persuade some moderate democrats that there is a better life for them with mccarthy than the alternative. we'll have to see if that's persuasive or not. >> jonathan, democrats have been huddling as they weigh what to do and here's what minority leader hakeem jeffries told reporters a little while ago as they're all watching this

situation unfold. >> we encourage our republican colleagues who claim to be more traditional to break from the extremists, end the chaos, end the dysfunction, end the extremism. we are ready, willing and able to work together with our republican colleagues, but it is on them to join us to move the congress and the country forward. >> and, jonathan, shortly after that, pernilla jayapal was more colorful saying, these are her words, that it is not up to democrats to stop republicans from wallowing in their own pig sty, but as brendan points out, how do they even know that whoever ends up as speaker and nobody has any idea who that might be would be any better for them? talk about what you're hearing from the white house, what you're seeing on the democratic side, john. >> yeah, democrats don't know that. and democrats as brendan said have a long list of reasons why

they don't want to bail out kevin mccarthy. they feel like, of course, january 6th, they also thought mccarthy's efforts to sabotage the january 6th committee. the impeachment inquiry into president biden, they blame kevin mccarthy for that. a number of them said to me, this is overlooked, when mccarthy went down to mar-a-lago, a couple of weeks after january 6th, that was perceived as the first step for donald trump to come back as a major figure in the republican party. that was a brief moment where trump could have been exiled. mccarthy went there, the first sign toward rehabilitation for trump. trump the leading gop presidential nominee and democrats feel the threat he poses is lethal, potentially, to the republic itself. they're not anxious to help mccarthy. they don't know what would be next. the white house is staying out of this. they're watching carefully as you might imagine. i got off the phone with a very senior aide there, but they don't want to be perceived as putting their thumb on the scale in terms of what mccarthy, his future may be. there is a sense that if

mccarthy were to perhaps lose his speakership, there could be a -- but the republicans can't coalesce on a replacement that maybe he would be able to win a back later on. but, remember, of course, he had 15 rounds the first time, but that would be a long shot for the speaker. and there is just a lot of uncertainty right now as one democrat put to me, they're going to oust the speaker because he voted to keep the government open, that shows you what chaos republicans are in right now. >> carlos, you served with a lot of the democrats. you know them well. you know the system well. how you to see this unfolding? what are you watching for? >> i think the group to watch is the coalition of centrist republicans and democrats. do they try to stand out in this process at any point? we know it is very hard, for example, for kevin mccarthy to go and try to cut a deal with hakeem jeffries. but in moments like this, the rank and file members, the centrist members, the bridge builders, tend to get together,

they tend to try to find ways out of these kinds of crises during the government shutdown, some of them we're talk about potentially finally discharge petition and some took some initial steps to doing that. so the problem solvers caucus. i know they have been meeting all morning. do they come up with something? do some democrats step in and say, you know what, we're going to neutralize this radical element within the house republican conference and be the members that work with the republican majority when this group acts up going forward. that's something to look out for now. that's something that kevin mccarthy wouldn't be directly involved in, trying to negotiate. but certainly members like david joyce, andrew garbarino, centrist members in the house, they're having conversations and trying to find a way to avert this chaos that would be embarrassing to the house republican conference and probably will be very painful for the country. >> is there a way for democrats to play into this, ali, to avert this crisis? because everything i've been hearing as i've been watching

our coverage, reading everybody's blogs and everything, the democrats want to stick together on this, don't they? >> and why wouldn't they? i talked to some of the members that brendan and congressman curbelo allude to. the idea that maybe there are members in swingier districts, front line democrats who have tough re-election battles in the coming year. maybe they could see some political upside to coming to mccarthy's aid in the name of the institution. but here is how leadership without whipping those people dealt with them, which is to say, when kevin mccarthy went on the sunday shows this weekend, he kind of bit the hand that fed him on averting a government shutdown. he politicized what democrats did and keeping the government open, and that's a clip they played in the democratic caucus meeting this morning. that got a reaction from lawmakers and it cemented the idea there is no political upside to saving mccarthy because he's not going to be the one to spare you if it comes down to hard politics.

and then it also made it that democrats are able to stand together. what someone did say to me, one democratic member allowed that if we're going into multiple ballot rounds on a motion to vacate or who the next speaker could be, once things go further down the road, maybe people can make different calculations. but i do think that it is striking that in all of my reporting, kevin mccarthy is not calling around to democrats. the pressure is on republicans to flip. i don't see why they would. many of the people who said they're going to vote against mccarthy are people who don't need the backing of mccarthy when they go back home to their own districts and they have been steadfast in saying that they're going to vote against him. so, mccarthy is not focusing on the other side of the aisle. he's focusing within and i don't know how that changes the math for him at all. >> i'd like all of you to stick with me. i want to bring in congressman byron donalds now who has been mentioned as a potential kevin mccarthy replacement. good of you to come on the program, congressman.

over the weekend you said that kevin mccarthy is in trouble. will you vote to remove him as speaker and why or why not? >> first of all, good to be with you. i'm not going to vote to remove him. i believe this process is premature, too soon. we have a ton of work that needs to be done on capitol hill. we have about 43, 42 days to finish the appropriations process. and to take up floor time to do this is the wrong way to go. secondly, there is not a long discussion among members about this procedure. i know the rule, one member can trigger it, i do agree with that rule as it exists, but it is really -- how it is supposed to work, you have a discussion to see if you can build support for that, that has not occurred. i think this is the wrong time. i'm voting not to vacate. >> what conversations are you having with other republicans? do you believe among the core group that support matt gaetz

there is any wiggle room there? how do you see this playing out, congressman? >> in terms of talking with other members, this is really going to be every member for themselves. i don't think you have a coalition forming here. i think members are going to have to make a decision of what they think is in the best interest of their districts, whether they think it is going to be in the best interest of the country and go from there. i had a couple of informal kosks conversations, but really to see where people are. >> let me ask you about what is in the best interest of the country. you've expressed it and we heard it from any number of other republicans who will vote as you do that this is not the time. there is a lot on the plate of congress. they need to get thir things dor the american people. does it frustrate you, anger you? how do you feel about the idea of a small number of people representing their constituents as they feel they are or not essentially holding the rest of the congress who may feel

differently hostage? >> well, look, it doesn't frustrate me. this is democracy. this is the very essence of what you have people who have disagreements, you have to either air the disagreements or find a way to compromise on them. it doesn't bother me. our border is a mess. it is wide open. it is hurting americans in every city in our country, every state in our country, and needs to be fixed. our debt is too high. our deficits are massive. we have to cut spending so that we can actually continue to get the physical health of our nation back on track. those are the primary two things that need to occur and we have the next 43 days to figure that out. my only concern is by taking up time with this process, you're taking away from that. >> and as you know, you lived it firsthand, 43 days may sound like a lot, but it is not when you talk about the kinds of issues you want to address and there are obviously others as well. so, let's say that speaker mccarthy doesn't survive.

your name has been floated as a potential replacement. would you be interested in being speaker? >> honestly, not going to get into that right now. i'm going to worry about the procedure on the floor. if anything i've seen the last 30, 45 days around here is stuff is fluid moment to moment. my only message from my colleagues is that we need to stand together here in the republican house. we need to make sure we're working hard to get the agenda passed and starting to work with the senate in order to address the issues that the american people are facing. i don't do the palace intrigue stuff. we'll see what happens down the road. >> you said you had some informal conversations. have you spoken to matt gaetz directly. >> no, we have not talked about this no. >> would you like to have a conversation with him? >> at some point, but we're going to see this be dispensed with one way or another on the house floor. i think right now it is about talking to members, seeing where members are, giving members an opportunity to process this. you got to understand, members

went home saturday, some members went home sunday, like myself, and then by the time you get home, you start looking at your phone and you're saying, there is going to be a motion, we get back yesterday and the motion is filed. members are really trying to think through this in real time. while they have been focused on the nation's fiscal issues and our border which is a complete mess and a crisis. >> have you been getting an earful from your constituents? >> they have been calling. some people in my district want to go through with the motion to vacate. i understand their position. and, look, the position for a lost americans is washington has lied to them for too many years, washington has not been serious about the issues facing this country for too many years, but every two years, every four years, politicians go home, campaign about they're going to fix all this stuff and come up here, waste time, not serious, not focused. you have a lot of americans who are saying enough is enough. just be done with the place. i think the prudent position is

to use every tool available to address the needs of the american people and i want to exhaust that before we even get into any other conversations. >> should there be a re-examination, do you think, of house rules so that one person or a small group of people can cause essentially the entire congress to shut down while we figure out what is going to happen next? look, i'm not in congress, but i hear the same things that you hear when i'm out across the country in different states and people are saying, why is congress talking about things that don'tthey getting things done? should a rules change be looked at? >> i don't agree with that. i would say it makes in line with the senate. the united states senate, one senator can hold up business because they are representing the interests of their state. if you have a member or a group of members who feel that strongly about the direction of the way the house is operating, they should be able to bring that to the floor.

members should debate that, and dispense with that business one way or the other. we have to get back to one institution and i believe as somebody involved very intimately in the battle for speaker of the house back in january, the house of representatives is to represent every district in america, not just the leadership districts, and not just the group of 20 or 30 members, who join a caucus. every member should have the ability to represent their district, whether i agree with their positions or not. >> you've been very generous with your time, congressman byron donalds, thank you so much. good luck as this moves forward over the next several hours. we appreciate it. let me go back to ali vitali. he says he's not frustrated. he hasn't had a conversation with matt gaetz. but you've talked to a lot more people. but as i've watched, there is a lot of frustration, a lot of folks on the republican side who just want to get back to work. tell me what you heard from congressman donalds.

>> such an excellent interview there. you tread on a lot of new ground, specifically around the idea that donalds is not going to vote to oust the speaker. he's also not effectively saying i also will not allow my name to be put forward. i didn't hear him take himself out of contention for this i just heard him say on the initial balloting round, he's not going to vote to ask the oust the sitting speaker. i think you're right to pose the questions to donalds. but i hear people listing off names without actually playing the game of do theft votes with the conference supporting them? especially when you look at the fact that so many within this republican conference, the majority, said not only do they back kevin mccarthy, but they won't back anyone but kevin mccarthy. this is the same thing and the

same dynamic that we saw back in january and the reality still stands that mccarthy is right when he says he has the majority of his conference. donalds is right when he expresses the frustration shared by the majority of his conference and still it doesn't change the fact that this handful of republicans can still cause this chaos and throw a speakership into flux. >> to that gives us a view into at least some members on the republican side for sure. i understand hakeem jeffries has just put out a letter to his democratic colleagues. what's in it? >> this affirms what our reporting was this morning, standing outside of the multihour democratic caucus meeting where many members were given an opportunity to speak to this larger situation at hand. there was some question going into that meeting of if democratic leadership would whip their votes, try to make it so that everyone had to vote against mccarthy as speaker, it

turns out they didn't necessarily have to do much official whipping. instead, it was really just cementing the idea there is no political upside for democrats, even though front line moderates, to vote to save the speaker. i heard from one of the front line moderates in a north carolina district who just put out a statement explaining why he's not going to vote to save the speaker. but jeffries encapsulating this in a letter he sent to all of his colleagues. it says, given their unwillingness to break from maga extremism in an authentic and comprehensive manner, house democratic leadership will vote yes on the pending republican motion to vacate the chair. effectively saying we're not coming to save you. and mccarthy had an inkling this was coming. he had connected on the phone with jeffries. they have something of a collegial relationship. i would not go so far as to say they're friends, but they had more communication than mccarthy had with speaker pelosi where there was no love lost between

the two leaders. with jeffries there is more collegiality. mccarthy sort of kissed on the politics of this moment this morning when he was talking to reporters. he said he connected with jeffries. he understood the political mack machinations of this kind of a moment and was not expecting democrats to be his saving grace here. on the shutdown, sure. but on this, no. >> i want to bring in republican congressman dan neither of pennsylvania. thank you so much for taking the time on this very busy day. where do you stand on the effort to oust speaker mccarthy? >> we have accomplished quite a bit. some only legislative standpoint, but as well from reducing spending, issuing the proper bills, he's shown leadership. he had a very open door policy as we negotiated against the default, which we largely

negotiated very well, so as we avoided a fault, he's done a lot of good. the group who is opposed to him right now, of course, the democrats, are just based upon real erroneous reasons and personal vendettas. and apparently a lot of opportunities to get on many national news outlets. >> i wonder what your message is to them. because we also just talked to byron donalds, in the same position you are, he does not intend to vote to oust speaker mccarthy. he said, look, we have real work that needs to get done. this is a distraction for him. it is the border and spending. what is your message to matt gaetz and the others and what do you really think is behind what they're doing? is it personal publicity? >> yeah, well, we had behind closed doors discussions and i looked directly at matt gaetz and some others. and i'm trying not to make this

personal. but i think that they have. let's face it, republicans put forth and speaker mccarthy put forth a bill that would have secured the border and given some reasonable reductions. a few republicans voted against that. all the democrats did. they voted to avoid securing the border, all the while rifging risking shutting down the government. there is a few to blame for the position we're in. back to my republican colleagues, having this six-week extension of a cr that is all we can ask so we can get the appropriations bills through, having mccarthy's head over that doesn't make any sense. here they're claiming he's working -- working with democrats, it is exactly what matt gaetz did. how hypocritical did -- in order to get us to this point. there is a lot of nonsense here. some serious ramifications

because we have appropriations bills, we have a border crisis created by the biden administration, that isn't being corrected at all. we have got inflation running rampant, we have other economic -- we have ukraine funding and initiatives there and yet we have got a group that is willing to put all of that in jeopardy and the timeliness and in order to engage in something that is going to be fruitless in the end because where are they going? they don't have a plan, unfortunately. speaking about my colleagues and the idea that the democrats don't want to work with us at all on this also shows that they prefer a political advantage in creating a -- allowing disrupting the republican party rather than putting the nation first. >> let me ask you, do you think that kevin mccarthy survives? >> honestly, it is going to be close. we're all working it.

i do -- he has survived through some very tough situations over the last nine months. and he's landed on his feet because he doesn't give up. he's a fighter. and he's smart. he knows this -- he knows this business. i do think there is a strong likelihood we will persevere, he will remain a speaker, but there is a chance that today could be an unbelievely momentous day for all the wrong reasons. >> and to your point of not having a plan, the question obviously is if not mccarthy, who? yesterday i think it was when matt gaetz was asked about this, he said, well, there is 100 republicans i could name who could be speaker of the house. but nobody has come forward and said that would be me, no group of people has come forward and said here's who we would all get behind. then what would happen next? >> i don't appreciate

republicans or democrats who come here and put politics first and put themselves over the greater good. that's why somebody like matt gaetz would never be speaker, that's his mo. moving forward, that's a great question. there will be an acting speaker. i understand how the procedures work as well. and then we go through voting process, what we went through on january 3rd. as you mentioned earlier, or one of your correspondents did, there are many of us just committed to voting for kevin mccarthy if takes 14, 15, 20, 25, he's who we believe and well over 200 republicans believe this that he deserves to be speaker and that's who we want to be speaker of the u.s. house. >> so let me ask you finally as you watch this play out and you know all the players, and you know parliamentary procedure, what are you watching for this afternoon, what will be your early indications of which way this might go? >> i just hope a few of our

republican colleagues view the longer term here and look at what the ramifications will be and give mccarthy a chance over the next six weeks, we have got these appropriations bills and honestly, i hope some democrats perhaps pull out of the mandate they get from their leadership. republicans don't operate that way, but the mandate, the or else they get from jeffries, maybe some of them will vote present to reserve the appropriations process and really put the country ahead of this political nonsense and ahead of their party. >> can i ask you one more question, congressman, because we just got a tweet from jake sherman. and this is what it says, i'll read it. matt gaetz is and has been the only lawmaker sitting in the chamber, he's alone, sitting two

rows from the back, one seat off the aisle, look at his phone. when you consider that visual, what comes to mind? >> well, right now i'm very, very frustrated with the gentleman and those who may vote for this ridiculous vacate the chair motion. and i just wish he would maybe get past himself and truly think about what is in the interests of, again, the american people, our process, and actually getting things done. we're not supposed to be the show. politicians, certainly members of the u.s. house, i like to equate to an umpire in a baseball game. call the balls and strikes, do your job, but outside of that, be as unrecognizable as possible. some members don't see it that way. matt gaetz is the leader of that

pack. >> congressman dan meuser, thank you. we're just less than a minute away now from when we expect the cameras to come on and if we want to call it a show that is what it is going to be happening on the floor of the house. we are anticipating there will be a vote, sometime soon. let me go to carlos curbelo if i can. i want to get your reaction of that visual of matt gaetz sitting by himself. just waiting to see what's going to happen. >> well, chris, that's right. that says it all. it shows in a divided house with a slim majority how just a handful of members can bring the entire process to a halt. and the congressman's frustration is palpable. that's what life in the

republican majority has been like for centrist members or swing district members for a long time. there is a lot of resent in the house republican conference from centrist members, the majority makers, the ones that give republicans the votes over 218 in the house. the fact that they're subjected to these kinds of situations, this kind of embarrassment by their more conservative hard-line, some would say, you know, the chaos caucus of some of the colleagues. you can see through na interview, very easy to understand, ascertain the resentment, the frustration, the tension, the anger that exists within the house republican conference. >> yeah, jonathan. you really can hear it in their voices. having said that, when you look at that letter that came out from hakeem jeffries, it really

does lay out what the democrats believe, which is that the american people will see this as dysfunction caused by the republicans. how is the view from the white house to this and democrats in general? >> there is no question the democrats are, like, this is a gift from republicans. some republicans see that as well and sounded the alarms, newt gingrich, no stranger to chaos in the house. he penned a piece today suggesting that the republicans should be trying to expel matt gaetz, not kevin mccarthy. they do worry this is republican infighting, gop civil war, just comes off as more chaos. more tumult. reminiscent of what the trump presidency was like and makes the republicans and lower chamber seem like unserious people. that they are too busy consumed with infighting, with impeachment inquiry that doesn't have any real evidence to it. to the hunter biden probes, to

stunt hearings. they're not taking care of the people's business. you're hearing some say, look, we want to get back to doing our jobs and we can't because we're stuck in this circus. certainly, you can anticipate this being a staple of campaign ads for democrats on capitol hill and the white house. drawing that sharp contrast between their party, which they say is interested in passing legislation and doing the people the business that got the government to keep its lights on over the weekend, and contrast that to what we're seeing here from republicans in this messy, messy spectacle that polls show voters simply don't like. and there may be a real penalty to pay at the ballot box next year. >> there is no doubt they believe that they have a better story to tell than the administration and many of the democrats and they see somebody stepping on their own feet and that would be matt gaetz and company. jonathan lemire, you have reporting to go do. thank you. the rest of the panel will stay with us. what you're watching on the floor of the house and you see

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. let's take another check of the floor of the house, where they are considering a resolution that has nothing to do with speaker kevin mccarthy,

but that is coming soon. and the question is, can he survive this vote? i want to bring back our panel, brendan buck, carlos curbelo. so, look, i heard ali vitali say this earlier, and i'm with her 100%, i got into journalism because i didn't want to have to do math. let's help people understand what is going to happen here. and correct me if i'm wrong, but i'm going to go to you first, brendan, you actually were working on capitol hill, and this happened in 2015 and they tried to get rid of speaker john boehner. so there are five republicans, there they are, gaetz, crane, biggs, good, burchett who are going to vote to oust kevin mccarthy. mccarthy only has four, he has wiggle room of four and they have five votes.

have i got that right? what are you watching for? >> yeah, you can't necessarily assume it is just that five. it may be more than that. for everyone below 218, mccarthy needs to pick up a democrat or have two of them not vote or vote present. so we haven't seen a single democrat say they are willing to step up for him. and one thing i do want to flag, i think this is actually a bit of a surprise to matt gaetz himself. matt gaetz said a lot over the weekend and he expects democrats will save mccarthy. he even made a joke that hakeem jeffries is mccarthy's new boss because he thought jeffries was going to step in and save him. i don't know if this was a situation where gaetz was expecting this. i think he would have been happy if the democrats stepped in and saved him where gaetz could keep mccarthy under his thumb longer.

i think that's one thing you have to be sitting here thinking about. byron donalds didn't say he's opposed to what they're doing now, he said it is premature. if mccarthy survives this, the next 45 days will be hell for him again. he was able to getelected and then got a bit of a honeymoon, he was able to build up political capital. he'll be back in it, into this funding fight, over the next 45 days and reality is these same folks set a standard that mccarthy is never going to be able to meet. if he survives here, he has to know 45 days from now, they're coming right back at him. so it is probably a pretty daunting thing to look at if you're him. you survive today, but you're not in the clear at all for the long-term. >> yeah, i think gaetz said, you know, go ahead, let the democrats bail him out. he's not mine, he's yours. i want to go to ali vitali.

she's been able to make her way into a hallway where people are going back and forth. oh, you're outside where they're going in and out. you move so fast, ali vitali, you're like the wind. i want to go back to these five. and i'll name them again, gaetz, crane, biggs, good, burchett. the question is what if one of them gets cold feet. what if as brendan suggested they are surprised they even have gotten here, are you getting indications of any kind at all that any of those five is moveable? >> no. at least not two of them who i just caught up with on their way into the chamber. point of order, i expect that your show is now going to chiron me the flash given what you said about how quickly i'm moving around out here. when i talked with congressman burchett and crane, asked both of them can you be moved? and both of them said no.

there is three other people that leadership could play with and try to flip. when you look at the other three, i wouldn't be confident if i was leadership. i will pick up on something that brendan said, gaetz could be surprised with how this is going. when we spoke with gaetz yesterday, the thing that he said to reporters before he officially introduced the motion to vacate was that he anticipated this might fail. that's why he also promised he would do it again and again and again. when you look at the math today, and frankly my phone has been blowing up with republican and democratic lawmakers asking me to check their math, which is when you know it is getting bad, but no one sees the way that mccarthy can get out of this, assuming that everything remains as it is. we're waiting to confirm the number of absences on the democratic side. that could have some kind of an impact here. there is a few little things we need to just check on our math front. but the way that things were left when i last looked at my

phone, i don't see a way that mathematically kevin mccarthy doesn't at least lose his job and circles back to the interview you were doing with the congressman from pennsylvania. the idea that there is a small few who don't want kevin ever, and then there is the majority, many of whom would say they are only kevin. they will only vote for mccarthy to be in this position and that's when the math starts to shake out. why we were able to go for 15 balloting rounds back in january. i will say for some of the holdouts, lauren boebert, she is someone who ignored me as she was coming up the stairs just now. congressman nancy mace, another one walking into the chamber now who said she won't vote against the motion to vacate going forward, at least in terms of getting them on to that vote, but we don't know how she's going to vote when it comes down to ousting or not ousting the speaker. so this really could play out live on the floor, much like it did in january. >> congressman curbelo, since you're someone who presumably is

more comfortable with math than some of the rest of us, because you had to count it while you were actually in the house, as she always is, ali vitali is right, we don't know exactly how this is going to play out. whether it is -- how an individual republican will vote, but let me ask you about the democrats, because it is possible, right, some democrats don't vote at all, some of them aren't there, and then the math changes. what are you going to be watching for? who are you going to be watching? >> so, chris, certainly everything i've heard is that mccarthy expects anywhere between five and eight votes against him. and assuming that everyone is present, obviously that means this motion to vacate will be successful. also i'm hearing that any negotiation, any efforts to get democrats to either vote present for not show up, that those efforts have failed, specifically the problem solvers

caucus, which by the way, was designed for this kind of situation, to kind of fill in and save the institution from itself. apparently those members met this morning and they have made no progress in terms of reaching some kind of agreement where democrats would come in with centrist republicans to not so much save mccarthy, but save the institution from this chaos. so, right now, it looks like we're heading to a speakerless house. and then at that point, once mccarthy is potentially removed from office, that's the time to start looking at these centrist democrats because that's when they will be at the peak of their power again as they were in january this year when republicans couldn't elect a speaker. it seems like it would be very difficult for any republican to get the necessary votes to become speaker. then is it there a negotiation with democrats, do some of these centrist democrats step in and say we're going to find a

consensus speaker, not someone from house republican leadership or house democratic leadership, but a rank and file member that a lot of members are comfortable with. these are extraordinary outcomes, they are highly unlikely, but we are living in extraordinary times when it comes to u.s. house of representatives. we have to start thinking about all these different possibilities. >> but you're talking about potentially again we're getting a couple of steps ahead, but you're talking about potentially a speaker who isn't kevin mccarthy, not going back, if he's removed and saying let's vote on him again. >> i think it would be very difficult for speaker mccarthy to become speaker again if he is removed and, look, kevin mccarthy is a survivor. he has survived multiple assassination attempts in the u.s. house of representatives from his own colleagues. so, i'm not counting him out. but i think once he's removed it would be very difficult for him to come back to power. >> let me go back to -- let me

go back to ali. i understand there is now a sixth member who has said that they will vote to get rid of kevin mccarthy? >> that's exactly right. i actually just caught up with congressman matt rosendale of montana, another member back in january who was consistently voting against the man who wanted to at that point be speaker, kevin mccarthy. now he's confirming to me in this motion to vacate, he will also vote yes, which is to say he will vote to oust speaker mccarthy. that makes six. the larger the number climbs, the harder it is and the higher the threshold for mccarthy to offset with democrats. and i think, again, we get into that scenario, it is important to circle back to what we know in our reporting, which is that i have not spoken to any democratic member who says that they want to be the one or ones to save mccarthy's job. they are unified in the minority, they say this is a majority problem, let republicans sort it out

themselves, but now we're seeing the nonmccarthy side grow, by one, at least for now, and we'll see what else changes on the floor. >> matt rosendale on twitter or sorry, on x, talking about that. and also, carlos, at the trial of donald trump, at his civil trial, he was shouted questions about his reaction to what's going on, about speaker mccarthy, he had said in the past he has actually been encouraging of getting rid of speaker mccarthy. he did not respond. but how much do you think of what we're seeing here, congressman, is about donald trump? >> chris, this has been going on in the house republican conference for a long time now. maybe since 2010, 2011, 2012, when republicans won back their majority, but this chaos, this disrespect for institutions, this lack of cohesion and

collaboration inside the republican party was certainly fast-forwarded and put on steroids by donald trump. there is no question that what we are seeing today is part of donald trump's legacy. he took the populism, the anger that existed in the republican party and super charged it and that's why matt gaetz and others have the confidence, have the fortitude to form this spectacle, to embarrass their leaders publicly, to throw an entire institution into chaos. this is a result of the culture that donald trump has promoted inside the republican party and this is yet another inflection point for the party where they're going to decide whether they're going to continue being hostage to this kind of culture and mentally or if they're going to try to turn the page and become a reliable party that the

american people can trust to govern and run an institution like the house. >> what do they get out of this? brendan? i mean, look. if you listen to the congressman among other things, he said they basically just want the publicity but i'm reading what matt rosendale put on x -- this demonstration of failed leadership is why i plan on supporting the motion to vacate this afternoon. how does that forward any cause that they have? what does a matt gaetz or any of the others walk away with if they're successful? >> surprised he didn't complete that tweet with vote for me for senate. that's what's going on here.

we have a lot of members in the house republican conference who are just deeply selfish and for political reasons, they're doing what works for them. matt gaetz is giving him a leg up to be the next governor of florida. that's what a lot of this is about for some of these people. if you're mccarthy now, i think what you have to worry about is a jailbreak. when the outcome looks certain and now members feel like it's a free vote and for a lot of them, maybe it is good politics for whatever their future plans is to stand up to the establishment. you're probably seeing a lot of people thinking this number can get really big really fast. i don't think it's going to get above 20 but it could be beyond reach of what democrats could even do to save him at this point. it doesn't advance anything. it advances themselves. that's why so many republicans are frustrated. there's really no recourse. this is the system we've set up where they are rewarded for

doing this. they get attention. they raise money. they don't need anything from leadership. they can sort of take it over and now they get to choose who the next speaker of the house is. nobody can become speaker without their endorsement. that's what they want right now. >> so are you hearing anything, ali vitali, that would suggest the number could get very high? 20 or even higher? >> i don't know that i've heard anything to suggest it would get to that number. i stepped away for a moment to talk to a congressman who made the interesting point this is someone who voted against the continuing resolution over the weekend. someone who says that yeah, there's some validity to the i didn't do that mccarthy hasn't kept his word to every proposal he's made. things like giving members 72 hours to read bills before they're asked to vote on them. we know that didn't happen over the weekend. never the less, he says even

though he doesn't always agree with him, he doesn't think his congress should be moving to oust his job. and he said, which is probably true, mccarthy has a thankless and difficult job especially with the four-vote margin he is. speaker pelosi had similarly tight margins and we did not see this level of rebellion from within the democratic caucus at the time. >> it was a short-term fix to avoid a shutdown. there are 43 days left. if this starts to play out, mccarthy's gone. we don't know who's going to replace him. all of the chaos that can ensue with that as if it hasn't been chaotic enough already, what does that do to those 43 days? >> well, chris, nothing is going to happen. if there's no speaker, sure, the committees can work, but the way the floor will operate really is kind of a mystery and it doesn't seem like the house will really have the capacity to move any

meaningful legislation. so this is a big problem. this is a crisis that could set off a number of other crisis. by the way, chris, as ali was talking, i just heard word from some of the problem solvers caucus members who are meeting, they are asking for 24 hours to postpone this vote for 24 hours so they can get a solution. perhaps work on a power sharing agreement. my understanding is that speaker mccarthy does not want to delay this at all. he wants to get this overwith but you know, referring back to a lot of these conversations that happen behind the scenes between centrist members, they are looking for a way forward. they're asking for more time but it looks like kevin mccarthy is out of patience. >> well, i just wonder though, brendan, if you are in kevin mccarthy's position and it looks like you've got six votes against you and it looks like it's not going to go your way, what's the harm in waiting 24

hours? >> there might not be harm. you know, i'm looking at the floor right now. it's interesting to me how many democrats have not voted yet on this vote, which has nothing to do with the underlying thing we're talking about but you can see there's a lot of them huddled there. they clearly want to buy some time. they're trying to drag out this current vote as long as they can. i don't know what those conversations are about, obviously, but there's a lot of churn going on over there. i'm not convinced that some moderate democrats are out of reach to save the day. i think that's still a live possibility that we need to entertain. for sure, they're going to make mccarthy sweat this one out. i don't think there's any doubt about that. they're going to push this to the end here. now we'll have to see what is allowed procedurally. if the motion to table fails, can mccarthy pull up? the vote doesn't have to have

him for 48 hours. potentially he could push it off to tomorrow, which would still be in those 48 hours and potentially build some time. if somebody comes to him at this point and says there may be a path ahead for you to stay, yeah, i think he's going to try to find a way to do that. and survive. so we'll have to see what those conversations are like for democrats right now, but i think he'll take any road out that he can get at this point. >> we have 30 seconds but let me ask you quickly, ali. is that something democrats would be on board with? >> i don't think so in part because they're united as a conference but also because the conversations i've had with moderate members, they haven't received any outreach. they're not going to just do this especially if mccarthy hasn't asked them to. again, if we get further down the road, things can change but at this point, i think it's a no. >> we're keeping our eye on the house floor and we'll see when

this motion to vacate begins but it could happen soon. we've seen matt gaetz with bobert and crane and others who are like minded but we'll be back with more right after this. e back with more right after this. who won the superbowl twice. and this pro with the perfect slice. and if we profer it, we know america will too. what about spaniards? and i guess spain. this is spring semester at fairfield-suisun unified. they switched to google tools for education because there's never been a reported ransomware attack on a chromebook. now they're focused on learning knowing that their data is secure. ( ♪♪ )

good to be with you. i'm chris jansing in new york and we are awaiting what will be a hugely consequential and historic moment on the floor of the house of representatives coming up soon after the vote that you're watching now, there will be a motion related to ousting house speaker kevin mccarthy, known as the motion to vacate. as of just a few minutes ago, we learned at least six house republicans now say they will vote to remove him from the top job. so if everyone is present, mccarthy can only afford to lose four republicans and he's been