saturday, october 7th.

i'm ali velshi. we are following to breaking news out of israel. prime minister benjamin and yahoo has declared that israel isn't a state of war after what is being called the worst attack on the country in 50 years overnight the palestinian group, hamas, which controls gaza, launched an all out assault by land, air, and see. israel senate responded by air striking at least 21 targets in gaza. the israeli ministry saying they infiltrated the israeli border by both land and sea. it'll be very interesting when we describe that happen. gaza base fires fired more than 2200 rockets into israel. across the country. israeli officials say at least 40 officials have been killed, hundreds more injured. the gaza health ministry says 198 palestinians have been

killed, 1600 injured. both hamas and the militant group palestinian islamic jihad claimed they have captured it soldiers inside of israel. according to media reports, hamas fired a second barrage of attacks toward israel following the israeli response with a senior leader later telling al jazeera that the group has launched, quote, a all out battle, and quote. adding, quote, we have one prime target. our freedom and the freedom of our -- saudis confrontations mark one of the most severe escalations in years following -- years of confrontations along the border and months of deadly confrontations in the israeli occupied west bank. by late sunday morning, israeli warplanes and pounded at least 17 military compounds in gaza. for operational headquarters of hamas. this is all according to israeli army and what they are calling operation iron sword. i say that only because we have to attribute all of

disinformation. it is very hard to get accurate information in this area at the best of times. the israeli army tells us something. the palestinian army tells us something. and hamas tells us something else. we are trying to make sense of it all. israeli soldiers are, however, engaged in active fighting on the ground inside of israeli borders against hamas fighters. there are gazans soldiers inside of israel right now. that is unprecedented. palestinian media is reporting the media in southern israel as being targeted by israeli warplanes. sorry, in gaza, have being targeted by israeli warplanes including, they, say an ambulance that was deliberately targeted. hamas leaders say this morning's assault was in response to the desecration of the al-aqsa mosque and an increase in solar violence in the west bank. a senior hamas military commander issued a rare statement on telegram calling the rocket assault, quote, operation all walks of flood urging palestinian and israeli

air neighbors to fight the israeli occupation the palestinian authority president, mahmoud abbas, stated that palestinians have the quote, right to defend themselves, against the terrorism with settlers and the occupation forces, and cool. lebanon's hezbollah moment has also released a statement saying it was closely monitoring the events in gaza. they are in direct communication with the palestinian resistance leadership. we also have comments from saudi arabia they. have asked both sides not to escalate. egypt has asked israel, specifically, to stop its assault. qatar has also laid the blame for these attacks squarely on israel. with me for -- the host of ayman on nbc, he has been covering the israel gaza region since 2005. also with me is nbc news foreign correspondent, matt bradley. matt was in the city of jenin in the west bank when israel unleashed a raid in early july. he is also spent time in gaza and a great deal of time in the

region. matt, i've been looking for you all morng, as well. your perspective on what is going on. the harder situaon in a region that exist in a hot situation. there are a number of people, including a man, who have said that this is the most serious attack on israel in 50 years. the main surprise is the attack on initial would come from hamas, in gaza. a place that does not control its own air, its own sea access, it doesn't have an airport. >> that is the big issue, right? everyone wants to talk about 50 years ago, the dawn kapoor war. it's devastating for israel. it is really kept in check after so many israeli victories throughout the region. that was really humbling. this is particularly humbling right now. what we are seeing right now, the real risk that we are worried about here is that this could metastasize. we can actually see this go beyond hamas, beyond the gaza strip. it could go out into the west

bank. in jenin it could involve hezbollah. this looks extremely coordinated. it looks like there are so many different moving parts that are actually participating in this. actually, so much of what we are seeing is based on the gaza strip, as you mentioned, hezbollah said they are monitoring the situation. this doesn't look like it is coordinated beyond causes borders. beyond hamas and the west bank. that is the real risk. we could see a sustained region wide war, which is what we saw 50 years ago with the young kapoor. war really put israel's backup really humbling it. that is something that we are seeing now when we are talking about a region wine diplomatic move. i'm in washington right now, we are seeing the biden ministration and the trump administration making deals with saudi arabia. with the united air emirates. other countries finally recognizing israel and finally moving towards peace. this just goes to show that if there is peace in the region,

in the middle east, with israel and that is not happening within israel's border. within israel proper. there is a massive disjointed effort here. the palestinians are not on board with what is happening region wide. >> matt, let's talk about the israelis right now. israel has been in upheaval for a year now about the so-called judicial reforms. benjamin netanyahu became prime minister, again. israelis have been taking to the streets by the hundreds of thousands protesting this wildly unpopular government. this is the kind of thing that unites the country. he sent 2200 rockets overnight into israel, do the internal protests in israel fall away? israelis rally around benjamin netanyahu, clearly, come down on hamas in gaza with a iron fist. >> i was just in israel covering those protests against the judicial effort by

netanyahu. there is a lot of anger in israel, particularly in tel aviv, against netanyahu. this is a deeply divided country. benjamin netanyahu's efforts to try to railroad through his judicial, what he calls, reforms, that was very, very, contentious. they're very controversial! i couldn't think of a better gift for benjamin netanyahu right now than this kind of incursion. he can now position himself, as he has repeatedly, throughout his very long tenure of running israel, he can now say, i am the full protective this nation. if you go against me, look at what you are up against. that is what we are seeing right now. he will, undoubtedly, once the smoke clears -- we don't know when that is going to be. this looks like a very hot conflict. one that we haven't seen in a very long time. as you mentioned, 50 years since the yarmulke poor war. we are going to be seeing benjamin netanyahu, this very contentious leader of israel, a divided country, he is gonna come out -- i am very sure he is gonna come

out and say, i'm the sole protector of this country. look at the threat that we are facing. not just from the palestinians, but from our neighbors. if the arab neighbors of israel actually participate and join the caused by hamas to participate in this fight against israel. he will be able to say that he is the sole protector. this is a very big gift for benjamin netanyahu. >> this is the point that you are making, eamonn. for benjamin netanyahu, who argues he is the guy who can keep israel stay from the palestinians, now he has this opportunity to demonstrated. on the other hand, he was not the guy who was able to keep israel safe from this. he is now, what benjamin netanyahu, is. for your 2200 rockets, they are gonna try to flatten gaza. >> just drawing on previous experience when attacks did not have the magnitude they did today. israel in 2008 invaded gaza. at the time there was a secures the bait as to the

establishment as to whether not think you try to retake eyes on what they could look fine. they. divided tanks going all across the territory at the time. they were able to divide it in the two territories. when the cease-fire was reached, they withdrew entirely. there are the more right-wing hawks of the israeli security text me say, look, the only way you are ever going to try to bring calm to the southern community israel is going to be a full invasion of gaza. trying to de-hamas the gaza strip. that is a more we cannot even imagine in terms of what that destruction would look like. gaza is a very densely populated area. hamas is both a very sophisticated network, along with other palestinian networks in the territory, of tunnels and systems to be able to draw israelis into this urban warfare setting. the question is really going to be, for the israeli establishment, once they do get their hands on the situation, to understand just a minute what is happening. how do they respond? there is a political

calculation. the prime minister of israel, the most right wing and it's history. the most far, extremist, jewish nationalist government that it has existed -- >> by law, you are not characterizing them that. way that is likely what they have written them. >> that is just factual. the rhetoric that has come out from israeli politician towards the house unions in the west bank over the past several months have been vial, disgusting. it's not necessarily new, but it's become more prominent. it has put america in a difficult situation where, at times, american officials will be forced to comment on, what do you think of this israeli politicians comment? this is the prime minister's comments. an interior minister, security minister, however. the americans would say, look, we deal with netanyahu. we know that they are in the government. he is the official person we deal with. what he says is what we are going to go with. now the calculus is going to change. he himself is already far-right. he has more far-right ministers who are going to demand a price.

the demand is going to be the calculation on everything else. if israel decides to invade the gaza strip, the mobilization, if you will, of that country in order to reclaim the territory without a switch egypt objective. what are you going to do? are you going to re-occupy the gaza strip? repopulate it with settlements? are you going in there to try to kill every hamas leader? they've been doing that for years. that has not changed. >> they are able to effectively do. that >> they have assassinated the most senior leaders of hamas's political wing, military low, low level people. people who require the technology. israel has carried out assassinations in neighboring countries against financiers, experts who have tried to acquire drone technology for militants. they have been able to do all of that. at the end of the day it hasn't prevented this attack from happening. whether or not you're going to see a robust debate about whether or not they should be a pivotal moment or a new change in the dynamic is gonna be very

hard. i will make this the final point. there is no doubt the israelis on across the political divide are going to unite behind their country, which has been attacked. >> every country does. that >> sure. you are going to see the opposite with the palestinians. the palestinians who may have dislike tomas in the west bank, palestinians who have said militancy is not the way to go, these types of attacks are not strategically -- they are also going to unite behind hamas. as you said earlier, all the positions of the region are going to be hardened by the events. not only what happened today, but what happens. >> today will not and better than it started. that's for sure. let's go to raf sanchez, nbc foreign correspondent. joining us now in israel. espondent. you have moose and where you last where. what are you seeing on the ground, rough? >> ali, we have moved. we are now just north of still roe. one of the larger it early communities on the gaza border. you can see, what's behind us, there is an israeli checkpoint.

they are not allowing anyone to go for the south and. you can see this long line of ambulances behind us. ali, i just got off the phone with an israeli security official. he tells me that fighting between squads of palestinian gunmen and israeli ground forces is still underway just down the road in the town. that is a sentence that i could not have imagined delivering to you a year ago. i think, both israelis and palestinians, couldn't have imagined it. the idea that there are palestinian gutman inside of israeli population centers holding territory and engaging in gun battles with israeli forces is truly stunning. we've had a couple of other updates since you and i spoke an hour ago deputy head of hamas appearing on al jazeera has said that hamas is holding what he says are a number of israeli captives, hostages, he might say. he says that some of them are

high-ranking it's really military officers. ali, a major caveat here. hamas has every incentive in the world to talk up the political and military value of the people it has taken inside of gaza. the deputy leader of hamas made no mention of whether israeli civilians have been taken hostage by hamas. he restricted his comments to israeli military officials. from some of the unconfirmed videos on social media that appeared be coming out of gaza, it does look like there are israeli civilians in hamas captivity inside of gaza. that fact, ali, if it is confirmed will be the absolute driving dynamic of what comes next. israel, as a country, at the government, as a people, will go to almost any links to get its people back, whether they alive or whether they are dead. the establishment is meeting now and discussing the

possibility of what eamonn just mentioned. a large scale ground offensive into the densely populated gaza strip. a big part of that calculation will be how many israeli prisoners, captive, hostages -- whatever word you want to use, or inside of gaza. what israel assesses as the possibility of getting them back. i want to give you a couple of updates on the numbers. the israeli emergency services are now saying 40 israelis are confirmed dead. some 800 wounded. no one can think of an israeli loss of life on this scale for decades, at minimum. as we focus on the situation inside of israel, israeli jets are striking all across the gaza strip. home to 2 million people who live inside of the walls, now breached walls, of israel security barrier and the egyptian border. they are trapped in there, there is nowhere to run, there is nowhere to hide. the palestinian health ministry

is saying 200 people are dead inside or gaza now from these israeli airstrikes. we do not know how many of them are palestinian militants, how many of them are civilians. the house ministry says 200 have been killed so far. 1600 have been wounded. the grim, grim, reality here is everyone on all sides expect that the death tolls are going to continue to rise. as israel carries a we think will be massive retaliation for the surprise attack. >> let me add a very important point to rastislav to. i lived in gaza for two years. i mentioned i covered several wars. they're gaza does not have an early warning system. it doesn't have air radar systems. it doesn't have the iron dome. even if you accept that israel is going to use precision strikes, if you accept that israel is going to try to minimize civilian casualties, the truth of the matter is when you see the reality on the ground of how densely populated

the gaza strip is -- >> it makes manhattan, the picture behind you, look like farmland. gaza is one of the most densely populated places on earth. >> gaza city even more so. i want to describe this for you, israel has the belief that it has just we keyshawn to targeted mass militant who is living in a residential building. the problem with that is you are in a building that have 20 or 30 other apartments. there may be weapons storage there. there is calls and false autonomous row the use of. sackett >> israel says the use human shields. >> human shields, that's right. but the description i'm giving, to share with their viewers, as to why you're going to see an unbelievable death toll emerge in gaza -- >> they will go for that one storage depot in the building. 100 people could die. >> right. sometimes when they want to take a tunnel, have we've seen in the past, they will take out a road or tunnel. as a result of that, brazil dings collapse on top of each other in densely populated areas. just think of an earthquake, where several residential buildings are completely flattened. you have that dynamic.

but also, as ralph was saying, there is nowhere for people in gaza to go. they aren't open borders. you covered ukraine. when the war started in ukraine, people were able to flee across the border into poland, in the hungry, and elsewhere in europe. that is not the case like other. >> you cannot leave gaza. there is no airport. you can't leave -- >> they don't do that. they normally don't do that. they're not likely going to do that in the situation. he will have hundreds of thousands -- >> which may explain why egypt is calling for israel's not doing what it's doing right now. it's real no -- excuse, me egypt knows the pressure on its borders going to increase as all of the gazans trying to get out will head towards egypt. >> again, i want to emphasize what you're doing now is not really the response of the israeli government. perhaps them just trying to contain or to immediately weaken hamas's ability to continue -- >> this is not the counter operation. >> that's right. this is just the immediate response to the direct invasion and this cross border attack. as ralph was just saying, it is

still very much ongoing. seven or eight hours since sunrise when the attack caught israel by surprise. i think, ultimately, when we see this play out in the coming days, weeks, and months, i go back to this fundamental point. this is such a pivotal moment for a lot of reasons. it will fundamentally change the reality on the ground in the middle east for decades to come. again, similar to what we saw in 1963, we had a news on how our surprise attack on israel -- they change the calculations in the region in israel's. from that point on, if you realized it was vulnerable to these types of attacks, if it was going to hang on to the territories. >> those were armies. those are armies who didn't attack israel proper. they attacked israeli position and occupied air territory like the sinai peninsula. like the golan heights. >> this is a different story. matt in reference day with me, as its aim. and i want to bring in -- nola from jerusalem into the

situation. she's been covering the palestinian conflict and the middle east in the past two decades. has been a lot of time on the show in the past ten months or a year talking about internal under the politics in the divisions with an internal politics. one of the things you've been talking about, no, gun before you got here is this maybe a bit of a unifying forth in the very splintered in her right now. this often happens. the seriousness of this attack, 2200 rockets. at least 4200 -- some israelis being hostage. i think it changes the entire calculus of how israelis are looking at their own political situation. >> hi, ali. well, it could. i would not rush to any assumptions or conclusions right now. i thought a lot of important things is netanyahu has publicly dismissed and

belittled the army since he returned to power on december 29th of last year. his communication minister flat out said it fighter jet pilots should go to hell. there is a part -- of the sustained attack and what they perceive as ali. netanyahu has simply rejected the warnings given by top military officials, including by the idf chief of staff, who have said to him that israel should prepare for a multi fraud attack. they have also said, explicitly and publicly, that netanyahu's push for what he calls teachers or form and what in fact is a takeover of the power of the state and his push to do that was weakening the army and would put israel in danger. it is not inconceivable that netanyahu may end up, maybe not tomorrow -- right now people are terrified.

okay? right now we have guys on the radio crying because their toddlers were kidnapped and arm -- that is what is happening right now. i wouldn't be surprised to see a wave of raged against an yahoo emerge in the coming weeks for having brought this country to, what you guys have been describing, and unprecedented attack with a humiliation and a full day of absolute terror for the citizens of this country. all citizens of this country. i have friends whose kids have been in bomb shelters terrified all day. i live in a very cosmopolitan jerusalem neighborhood. i will talk to aerates errands this morning. people are going to be reacting to that. i can't predict exactly how but i would be surprised if this kind of patriotic wave that you were describing actually materializes here.

>> interesting. this is why i rely on your analysis. you are there and you are talking about it talking to people. that douglas begged the question, what do you think happens next? amen just made the point that what you are seeing today in terms of military occupation seems designed to stop what we saw begin last night. the surprise attack by air, land, and see. paratroopers were coming in on hangland or. 's israel needs to stop the. in netanyahu's world, and generally speaking in the israeli military world, that is not the response. there's gonna be something else that looks like a response. >> i expect so, absolutely. i am not sure what this is a response to. the air force actions right now in gaza, or an hour or so, may have been principally aimed at the israeli public. there is one third of this country who have been locked in

aerate shelter since this morning. they are wondering, where the hell is the army? where the hell is our government? what is happening? these air sorties over gaza may be one way of answering to them. at least for now until the government and the army gets their ideas together. i do want to emphasize, i do not think the israeli army in the israeli government unnecessarily on the same page right now. i think part of the delays, this assault started more than nine hours ago. there has not been in an official israeli statement since. we are talking about dozens of citizens dead. we are not sure. a lot. you let me, i want to read you some words from a journalist just behind where wraps and chairs is. a colleague of ours, a translated what he wrote. i am in sderot.

words cannot describe what i'm seeing. a preferred period. images dead bodies, shot out cars, kalashnikov magazines on the ground, many spent cartridges. the military is just now entering. that was an hour ago. sderot, as ralph said, is not a small city. there is chaos and, i think, there will be a massive military response. i agree with all of you guys that that has limited utility. that has limited utility. i would be surprised if hamas's current leadership survives this. i also want to say that hamas is no, you know, it is not a kindergarten. the citizens of gaza who live under her mask rule do not have an easy life. hamas's and unruly islamic militia. who is popularity among palestinians, in general, goes up and down. it is very difficult to --

i don't know what will happen to the popularity but i would be surprised if it goes up. i think the suffering that will be brought on palestinians, not just from israelis, but in general they are not the top priority in this region right now. it is going to be terrible. i do think that some of them will hold hamas responsible. >> thank you for your analysis. as always, and independent journalist covering the israeli palestinian conflict for the past two decades. we will keep checking back in with you. thank you very much, joining me now is john brennan. former cia director, msnbc senior national security and intelligence analyst. john, i wanna come back to a topic that came and brought up right at the beginning of this whole thing. that is the fact that this could happen without israel knowing about it. this is a remarkably large attack. 2200 rockets overnight. people dead on both sides of this battle. how did this happen? that is a good question.

it certainly was a tactical surprise. but, for the reasons that have been mentioned, it should not have been a strategic surprise to netanyahu in the israeli government. clearly, we need to condemn the kiing of innocent civilians, or the taking hostage of innocence brilliance. there is a history and a context here that i think we need to make sure is addressed. ever since 1967, the gaza and west bank gaza has had an ongoing suppression. the only accelerated under netanyahu's very right-wing. he really society and therefore he has done more to crush the statehood aspiration of palestinians than any other israeli prime minister. i think we need to, you, again condemned the attacks against civilians. i'm very fearful in terms of what is going to happen in the

aftermath of this because this is going to go on for a while. i'll be very surprised if israel did not launch a ground incursion invasion of gaza. they are going to be relentless as far as punishing hamas leadership. it is just going to continue to fuel the cycle of militancy and after waiting tensions. unfortunately, it is the militants on both sides who are the ones who are going to be able to, i, think capitalize a benefit on this very important development. >> generally speaking, -- has described over the years when hamas would lock rockets into israel, it was quite crude. they would often not hit their targets. it was pointed out that they would sometimes land inside of gaza. this was a much more sophisticated attack. obviously israel has sophisticated air defenses. it was able to do that. but normally this stuff is done by the air. there are dozen hamas troops, it seems, inside israel in places like sderot, who have taken hostages.

some might have been military hostages. maybe israel launching a ground offensive. he has seen troops headed towards the gaza border. that is an escalation and a complication that can lead to something substantially more serious. why do that? >> well, again, it shows that the increase -- the coordination, the planning that is taking place, the scale of this operation, as you pointed, out is ground incursions, rock and attacks, taking hostages. it is extensive planning that went on. the fact that the israelis were not able to have a sense that this would happen and prevent it was quite shocking. what i do believe is that the palestinians, and hamas, believe there is no hope for them in terms of being able to realize what they believe are their legitimate aspirations,

not just of statehood but being able to live under the yoke of suppressive policies. that is why -- i have a little bit of concern about the palestinians in the west bank. they will see their fellow palestinians in gaza rising up. there are a number of individuals in the territories of the west bank that may in fact decide to support them with other types of violent activities. this is going to change the landscape, not just of israel, but as you pointed, out i think it will have an imprint on the region as a whole. the palestinians feel they have not received anything in return for the -- accords. a lot of them were disappointed when the united states moved its embassy from tel aviv to, slumped of despite many years the united states has said they're not going to address the final status of jerusalem until there is a final status negotiation. i think hamas decided that now to amass these capabilities in korea this attack, they need to

bring more attention in the region and globally to what they consider to be their plight. >> what is the next thing that -- what is the official reaction the white house should have? we have lots of responses from politicians. but as is often in the case in the early hours, they are lacking in nuance about the complexity that you understand. what is joe biden supposed to do right now? >> well, i think, again, he is supposed to contend any types of terrorism against civilian targets. that is unequivocal. he has to hand sole restraint on both sides. he has to call for cessation of any type of further attacks. he needs to make sure he's able to speak to netanyahu and others and counsel against any type of overly aggressive and forceful responses that will make the situation worse. and is going to lead to the deaths of hundreds, if not thousands of palestinians in the gaza strip. that is not going to help to address the underlying factors and conditions that fueled and

triggered today's most unfortunate developments. >> but those underlying conditions, which have been going on for, depending on to you ask, ten, months to, years 50, years have to do a lot with the occupied west bank and the palestinian authorities. is there a role for mahmoud abbas? the leader of the palestinian authority? or this thing has skipped him and the palestinians. it is like gaza's real fight? >> the palestinian authority and president have not been the most helpful actors in the quest for palestinian statehood. the palestinians have frequently not taken the opportunity to make progress. a lot of palestinians don't recognize the palestinian authority. i'm hoping the intelligence and security in the west bank -- who i work with very closely, they're making sure to carry out the professional responsibilities and they don't

allow extremism that will be fueled by hamas, the islamic jihad, and others to muddy the waters in the west bank. >> john brennan, thank you for your analysis. we appreciate it. joining me now is hala karami, a journalist covering the middle east extensively for decorates, we are all colleagues from our cnn days. hala, you have spent a lot of time in the region. when you look at this, as i said, it was tactically unexpected. strategically, one could've guessed that something bad was going to happen. in this cauldron that was boiling over. what do you make of it? >> well first of all i am very surprised, shocked even by the failure here of israeli intelligence and the security apparatus that did not predict, and has not expected at this moment in time a multi pronged attack by hamas. air, sea, land, this is a

spectacular failure on netanyahu's watch. another thing that we are going to look at closely is the israeli response in this case. this is not 1973. this is 50 years after that surprise yom kippur attack. that was a war between conventional armies. here we are talking about asymmetrical warfare. if israel wants to mount a ground incursion, we are talking about a very difficult, complicated operation. this is with hostages being held by hamas inside of gaza and on israeli territory. this is a different scenario for netanyahu and his government. this complicates immensely what kind of response to mount. in the past, the israeli military has bombed from the air, it has done so relentlessly. it has caused a lot of material damage and killed many people inside of gaza. in this case, the objective is to really destroy hamas leadership by going in from the ground.

it is going to be extremely difficult to do without putting at risk the lives of those who are now being held by hamas. we have seen some of these images, these very disturbing images in southern israel, of civilians who have been killed, others who have been dragged into cars and driven to gaza. the other thing i would look, at, really is the regional response. we saw saudi arabia come out and say we are calling on both sides for restraint. with the normalization between israel and saudi arabia and other gulf nations certainly has not gone down well with iran. it supports hamas and lebanon. so that kind of puzzle, the middle eastern puzzle of influence is one that is going to be extremely interesting to watch unfold. in the coming days and weeks, as, well as we wait for the netanyahu government to respond to what happened just a few hours ago in southern israel. >> what is your sense, because we've had various opinions on

this this morning, netanyahu is not popular. he has had ten months of these israelis taking to the streets, more than 100,000 per weekend. but do these types of attacks coalesce support around him or not? >> i've heard from your guests to ways of looking at this. one hand, is real increased patriotism and unity throughout the country. or on the other hand, as one of your other guest said, and i tend to side with this view, is that in this case -- what we saw over gaza, it was a way to signal to those who might find fault with netanyahu's government and not having been able to prevent this attack to say, we are doing something. but in this case, netanyahu is really using this terrorist threat as a rallying call, as a way to legitimize his government extreme treatment of palestinians. in this case, will it work?

all of this happened on his watch. that is why this is also interesting. after several months of having gathered this coalition, with the extremist factions in his government, who were all about promoting the idea of israeli security, if this is the best they can do to protect their citizens, perhaps this will harm -- and the country will not unite behind them. >> just to understand what you think you covered, wars in this region, this is a two part exercise. i think israel needs to do today is stop whatever is happening with hamas and rescue whatever hostages are being held. we don't have accurate numbers about who these hostages, are where they, are but they do seem to have reports widely circulating that there are hostages being held. that has got to happen first. if israel launches a full-scale response, which it ultimately will, while hamas has israeli

hostages, that complicates things. >> precisely. it complicates things and it makes me wonder whether this full scale assault but so many are predicting -- and i think rightly predicting eventually, will happen in the short term. in my view, it can't happen in the short term because you have civilians who are being held by hamas inside of gaza. we've seen unconfirmed video, but video from sources inside of the gaza strip, which is this tiny strip of land, showing civilians being paraded around in this strip to kind of cheering gazans that were taken from southern israel, from settlements and other parts of southern israel that hamas managed to mount a successful incursion into. there is that part. the other thing i would say, ali, is that a ground current incursion is extremely complicated and dangerous. when israeli troops have troops

in southern lebanon, when they mounted an incursion into that part of the middle east it was not gone well. this is fraught with danger, strategic difficulty and tactical issues that could really really lead to terrible loss of life on both sides and for the israeli military. it's not a simple thing. it's not like, oh, grounded corrosion, no, you're talking about a prolonged bloody and damaging conflict. you are talking about door to door warfare, urban warfare in a densely populated strip of land that israel is not familiar with in the same way that hamas and islamic jihad fighters are. this is not a simple proposition. >> to add to how this point -- which is something we were discussing earlier -- what is the objective of israel

invading the gaza strip? because, i emphasize this point for those of us who have been following this conflict for years, israel has already assassinated and kill the most senior hamas militant officials. they have killed the spiritual leader of. hamas arrested dozens of hamas -- >> they have achieved. that they can achieve. that they've done that. my point is that what you are going to see within israel's security operatives is a debate, whether it is public or transparent, it's not going to be as clear cut. israeli military officials that i've spoken to over the years have debated whether or not the siege, the blockade was achieving israel's strategic objectives of trying to bring calm and quiet southern borders. what we see today, if it has achieved nothing for hamas, it has to shatter the myth that israel can ignore what happens inside the gaza strip. doing what it has been doing in the gaza strip is the only way to have chief its objective.

there is this domestic political consideration within israel, which is you have to be tough. no one who was prime minister succeeds by coming in and saying i'm going to a chief priest but i don't want to achieve it through money. whether they have tried to do, it they were assassinated or voted out of office. the dynamic's strength is the only thing that matters. but what we have seen -- and this is according to the israeli prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, who has tried to recalibrate the equation of what piece looks like in the region. for years it was, there is no peace with arabs without peace with the palestinians. he has prided himself on saying i'm going to change that equation. i'm going to say, i'm going out to the arab world, i'm going to make peace with the arab world, then i will come back and make peace with the palestinians. those are his words. so when you look at the most powerful and perhaps most important peace agreements that israel has had, the united arab

emirates, morocco, egypt, jordan, these are countries that, at some, point were never directly involved in confrontation with israel but felt that if they achieve peace with this, i will weaken the palestinians. i can make the palestinians then more valuable to the terms of the agreement -- >> because all their friends in the region don't want to fight. >> exactly. and what the palestinians have said repeatedly is that they can have peace with these countries. but it is not going to fundamentally change the dynamic on the ground. the palestinian authority has said that but it this week, so it is unable to change the dynamic or try to impose that calculation on israel. hamas, on the other, hand has a different approach. a militant one. a violent one. not all palestinians except it. it is not very -- palestinians are not monolithic. it would be very naive to just simply say every palestinian agrees with what hamas is doing. but hamas is saying, well, if nobody is able to do we -- defend what is happening for palestinians in the west bank or east jerusalem with the home demolitions, the arrests, the children being killed, the desecration of holy sites, if

they're unable to do that then we only have the ability to do it with military might and crude weapons and military. and that is why i go back to that point that the israeli prime minister was making which is, i'm going on to reach peace with the arab world then i will come back and make peace with the palestinians. this is the ultimate end result. you have ignore the palestinians. i'm not saying he's ignored it in the sense of oh we're not dealing with palestinians, or not prepared. it's that i'm going to put the priority of our resources on peace with the arab world, saudi arabia, with the united arab emirates and others. i will get the americans to buy into that. i will get the europeans to buy into. that the others were saying, listen, that is important. that is. good that is going to matter. but it's not going to change what is happening on the ground every day for israelis. israelis were being killed this year. palestinians were being killed, israelis were being killed. so the abraham accords did not bring israel the peace that israelis wanted to bring. >> it brought them business deals. >> again, important stuff. but if you are trying to solve

a problem that is not persisted for the better part of a century, and you are trying to do with the same way over and over and over again, it is by definition insanity. and what we are seeing today is the deadly consequences of failed policies, failure on the american administration's part to change course, to take a different course of action with how we deal with the palestinians and the israelis. failure on israel's part. failure on the region's part to not be able to say, this is an issue that matters. because what is it that we've heard over the years? everybody would come and say, the arabs don't care about the palestinians anymore. they say look, the saudis don't care about the palestinians. the iraqis don't care about the palestinians. the egyptians don't, they're left on their own. there now, week now they're going to be able to subject to what we want a final peace agreement to look. like i've seen the point that others have made today, which is if you had thought that the two state solution was alive before today, you would be a fool to think that after today a two state solution is

possible. you had right wing israeli government militias who've been calling for annexation for months. >> he spoke to the former prime minister, bennett, who very clearly drew a map and it looks like the west bank looks like swiss cheese. he's fine with. that we will just control, thus they won't have the vote. it is what it. is that's what israel needs for peace. >> economic little ration, not political liberation. that is the unofficial policy here. like, we'll keep the palestinians in the west bank and east jerusalem, economically viable. but they won't have any political rights over their livelihood or self determination. gaza, we will try to manage it as a low level conflict whenever it flares. we will carry out a strike. same thing with what we saw with hezbollah actors, the lebanon border. if hezbollah carries out an attack we will respond in kind. we will manage this conflict. this is what people have been wanting for decades. people have been trying, activists in, journalist others who follow this saying, this is not sustainable. it is just not sustainable.

>> for the extent that the last 12, ten, months the palestinians have received some degree of sympathy from the world because people are seeing what is happening to them, particularly the attacks by settlers in the west bank. in some cases, watched by or supported by israeli defense for soldiers. an attack that kills this many civilians does change the calculus. the secretary of state of the united states has just put out a statement, unilaterally condemning hamas for these attacks. does israel risk -- to the palestinians risk the lack of empathy and support from the world because civilians are now dead in this overnight attack? >> i think undoubtedly. whenever you have an attack like this, the images that we have seen online will eventually make their way on to social media platforms. bloodied israeli civilians being dragged out of their cars, shot, all the rest of it, it

will harm the palestinian cause. what amen said is that palestinians are not behind what hamas has done. i think they have been able, in some cases in the last few years, i observed a shift, to send the message that what their desire for independence, self determination represents is not necessarily always linked to this type of action by groups like hamas. i think it can be short lived, certainly now, but the idea that palestinians deserve some sort of rights of self determination, some sort of economic self sustainability, or respect as a people with their own territory is an idea that has been made more headway in the last two years and when i was in the region 10 to 15 years ago. it was quite different. i want to just make one point about the regionalization of this conflict.

from my perspective, i think that you have hezbollah and lebanon supported by iran that right now -- we if there is a ground incursion into gaza, that will change the insignificantly. then you might have groups like hezbollah enter the conflict. then it becomes a multi front war for israel. it certainly will have an impact across the region. it will spread as really military resources more than -- i would really keep an eye on hezbollah here. hezbollah is linked to iran, it's much tighter than hamas is linked with iran. h tighter than hamas i linked with iran it is directly funded by iran. if you look at a regional picture of what this incursion this morning has likely as an effect, this is an important one to keep an eye on. >> this is a really important one to keep an eye on, hala. let me bring in colin clark, the director of research at the soufan group. to hala's point, colin, they are reporting a statement from

how about as below where they say they're in direct contact with hamas. they stopped short of pledging to join the attack against israel. of course, that is the danger. an attack on israel from the south, from gaza, and then hamas in southern lebanon. then it has the potential to become bigger than it is. it will because there's going to be an israeli response, but it could draw more people and parties and countries in. >> exactly, there is major prospects for escalation and for spillover violence throughout the region. and the role of iran looms large. if you look at the sophistication and complexity of this attack, it is clear that iranians have its advantages, it serves as a -- for hamas and other groups in the region. my main fear is that the israelis feel pressure domestically and politically to take this conflict beyond gaza and to iran, which would be catastrophic for the region.

>> what is your concern right now? i know the suifen group has their ear to the ground, this obviously came as a surprise to israel. what is the chatter you are hearing about what happens next? >> i think this is a massive intelligence failure. the israelis feel fall marble. when they feel vulnerable they are likely to strike out and over compensate. we are looking closely at the information environment. this will play out kinetic lee in the physical world, a lot is taking place in the information environment, and this opens up opportunities for things like deepfakes, other types of manipulated videos that are likely to pull or ethylate and cause even further chaos in the region. >> particularly in a world where we are getting lots of reports right now on the number of civilians who are dead on both sides, the number of people who were injured and the idea that there are hostages. this is a remarkable opportunity for misinformation and disinformation because if

you can create videos that make it look like you've got hostages that you don't, or are doing things with the hostages that you don't -- the world doesn't want to see, this could create yet more attention. >> exactly, and i think we have to be concerned about the d i asked bruh, a conflict spreading into populations abroad, north america, europe, elsewhere to see if there is that kind of spillover. it's very concerning right now. this is really -- we are poised for a tense couple of days and weeks. >> hala, let me ask you, you covered this in the past, the idea that these groups elsewhere around israel to get involved. at the moment, we've got word everybody is just watching this closely. today what we are watching and what we will probably watch tonight from israel are attempts to get any hostages freed freed and stop the hamas

encourage. and there are hamas people inside israel. we don't know whether they have retreated to gaza get. that is part one of the operation. part two is what israel does about it. and its response. part two b is what everybody else in the region does about it. we have mentioned husband of, are there other things you are worried about in the area in terms of this spreading? >> right now everybody is in a wait and see mode because of the hostage taking and the fact that you may have hamas fighters still on us really territory. it's going to depend a lot on israel's reaction and response here. because, as we, said if there is a ground incursion, if there is a really massive military response that involves bombing large parts of gaza, then to imagery and video of palestinian civilians killed in israeli military action, and you might have perhaps a kind of different calculus here for

some of the groups that could be involved. it is really wait and see, even you saw from the saudi reaction, we call for restraint on both sides. we are hearing that from really everybody. the hope, i, think from people and operatives in the region who are not wanting this conflict to escalate, is that there will be some sort of negotiation that will be to the release of the hostages, perhaps with the prisoner swap. but that right now, a ground incursion is a massive retaliation on the part of israel, it's not in the cards. so like everyone else, i am just kind of waiting and seeing. i'm reading the various communiqués, the foreign ministries around the world. and i think right now it depends on what israel and netanyahu government decide to do in retaliation. >> i will read you what these communiqués are saying, antony blinken, secretary of state, says the united states condemns the appalling attacks by hamas

terrorists against israel. including civilians and civilian communities. there is never any justification for terrorism. we stand in solidarity with the government and the pple of israel. we extend our condolences for thiseli lives lost in these attacks. we will remain in close contact with the israeli partners. the united states supports israel's right to defend itself. the washington post, we have not had a comment yet from president biden. the washington post reported that president biden emphasized u.s. support for israel in a call with prime minister netanyahu, according to the israeli leader's office. netanyahu thanked u.s. president biden for the unreserved support and they said there will be a forceful prolonged campaign which israel will win. again, we have not had a comment from president biden. yet this is tricky because biden and netanyahu were both involved with discussions -- biden and blinken were both involved with discussions with netanyahu and with mahmoud abbas to try to improve on the situation that's been going on

there for the past year. they are trying to get in there and say that america has a fair deal and a broker of potential peace after donald trump was not with the abraham accords. this is unequivocal, amen. >> it is expected, isn't it? no one is expecting the americans to say anything other than that. this is their closest ally in the region. the bond between america and israel is obviously very deep on so many levels, culturally, politically, militarily. >> and civilians have been killed. >> of course civilians have been killed. and the u.s. position historically whenever israel's attack is too often offer the condemnation for the attack and support for israel in order to do what it says, to defend itself. when you are watching this it is going to be interesting to see the dynamic between the prime minister and joe biden on a personal level, but also to what extent, and we also heard from the defense secretary, lloyd austin, calling on what

happened today, condemning it and saying israel has a right to the puffin the europeans. -- i'm not saying the statements from the region are not important, but it comes down to what america and israel allows to happen. what we've seen in the past as israel will say, well we have to do what we have to do. and we expect our allies to be with us. this is a fight for our survival, this is a fight for our freedom, democracy. that is the tone that comes out of israel in a moment like this. what you expect, and what we've heard from members of congress, statements are condemning and expressing support for israel. the central question that i don't think any american official can answer right now, or israeli officials, what does that look like to the point about what the israeli government does going forward. more importantly, to what extent the white house and the europeans are going to give a blank check once we start seeing death toll rises on both

sides, perhaps even inside israel. >> at the moment, the official death toll is still at 40 israelis, 198 palestinians. we expect that to rise. we are trying to confirm the latest numbers that we can get. we will have more on the situation in israel right after a quick break. you're watching msnbc. a quick break. you're watching msnbc.