a good person and loyal friend for more than 40 years. the emily, faithful as she was, worried that bobby durst may have been the friend she never knew after all. >> i can't understand harming a human being, okay? that doesn't make sense to me. i don't know if i could forgive that. and i wish i could. and i'm struggling with that. i don't know. i don't know. ♪ ♪ ♪ >> that's all for this edition of dateline. i'm andrea canning. thanks for watching. thanks for watching. ♪♪ this sunday, closing in. israel and hamas are closing in on a deal to release hostages in exchange for a pause in fighting.

>> i'm doing everything in my power to get you out. >> is a deal within reach? i'll talk to deputy national security adviser jon finer. plus, blaming biden. our new nbc news poll shows voters are unhappy with president biden and his handling of the israel-hamas war. his approval rating at a new low and he's trailing former president donald trump. >> i acknowledge there is a disconnect between the numbers and how people feel about their place in the world right now. we still have work to do. >> why is the president struggling even with members of his own party? and spoiler alert. senator joe manchin tells me he's considering a third-party run in 2024. >> are you considering running for president? >> i will do anything i can to help my country. >> is that a yes? >> you're saying does that mean you would consider? absolutely. every american should consider. if they're in a position to help save the country, i think they're on the wrong course. >> my guest this morning

presidential candidate and former new jersey governor chris christie and richard blumenthal of connecticut. joining me for insight and analysis are nbc news capitol hill correspondent ryan nobles. "new york times" pentagon correspondent helene cooper. former republican congressman carlos curbelo and stephanie murphy. welcome to sunday. it's "meet the press." >> announcer: from nbc news in washington, the longest running show in television history. this is "meet the press" with kristen welker. good sunday morning. nbc news has learned that u.s., israeli and hamas negotiators are closing in on a deal to release the nearly 240 hostages held in gaza in exchange for a pause in fighting, but these sources caution nothing has been finalized yet. the outline of a deal has been put together during weeks of talks in doha, qatar. one senior israeli official tells nbc news as the pressure

increases the chances of the release of hostages grows because hamas is desperate for a cease-fire. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu is also under pressure. families of the hostages have been on a five-day march from tel aviv to jerusalem and are fiercely criticizing the prime minister for not doing more to secure their release. on saturday netanyahu emphasized that no deal is done. >> translator: regarding the hostages, there are a lot of unfounded rumors, a lot of incorrect publications i would like to clarify. until this very moment there was not a deal, but i'd like to promise you that when we do have something to say, we will report on that. and in a "washington post" op-ed, president biden wrote, quote, as long as they disrupt, a cease-fire is not peace.

the president sounded more optimistic. >> look, i have -- i am deeply involved in moving on the hostage negotiations, and i don't want to get ahead of myself here because i don't know what's happened in the last four hours, but i have -- we've gotten great cooperation from the qataris. >> joining me now is deputy national security adviser jon finer. jon, welcome back to "meet the press." >> thanks very much for having me. >> jon, let's delve into the details of this breaking news. nbc news has confirmed, based on confirmations with two sources who are familiar with the negotiations, that they are closing in on a potential deal to release some of the hostages in exchange for a pause in the fighting. how closer they to a deal? what can you tell us? >> what i can say at this point is some of the outstanding areas

of disagreement in a very complicated, very sensitive negotiation have been narrowed. i believe we are closer than we have been in quite some time, maybe closer than we've been since the beginning of this process to getting this deal done, and we are following this minute by minute, hour by hour up to and including for the president for whom this is a major priority as you just heard. we need to adhere to the mantra that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. sensitive negotiations like this can fall apart at the last minute and we're not going to outline the details of what is being discussed. we believe that this needs to get done and people are being held in unconscionable conditions including a number of americans and they need to be allowed to come home, but until the deal is done and people need to depart, nothing is finalized, and so we'll stay on this until we get to that point.

>> in terms of the contours of the deal can you give us some specificity? how many hostages are we talking about, jon? are we talking about 12? are we talking about more than two dozen? dozens? how would you characterize the number of people? >> i guess what i would say is because i don't want to get into the issues that are under discussion among the parties, i'm not going to give more detail other than considerably more than 12, but beyond that, i want to see where this goes, and i don't want to say anything that would jeopardize the completion of the deal, which is the most important thing. >> and are all of the potential hostages who would be released women and children, jon? >> again, these are issues in the talks themselves. these are issues under active discussion among the parties, and so i think it would not be helpful to the completion of the deal, which is the biggest priority, to lay those out in public at the right time. certainly if this deal is completed we would have more to

say about how it got done, but for right now the priority is getting it done. >> i know you can't say a whole lot, but are we talking about a prisoner exchange, jon? >> what you're asking about, quite understandably, it's your job, are topics that are at issue directly among the parties and in the talks and so we go out in public, it is not helpful to getting this deal across the line, but these are exactly the topics that are under discussion. i just want to liev it to them and give them the space and the privacy to work this out and get the deal completed before we start detailing these things on television. >> i understand, but just big picture. would it include what, frankly, so many people around the globe have been calling for is a cease-fire? we're talking about a cease-fire for several days, i believe, five days has been reported. >> so without getting into the duration, one of the things the parties themes have said is that this could and would likely include an extended period of a pause in the fighting, a

multiple-day period of a pause in the fighting. we think that would be both necessary to execute the deal because executing the deal would involve moving hostages around what is a dangerous battlefield in gaza, but it would have the ancillary benefit, the important benefit of making it easier to distribute humanitarian assistance throughout gaza because one of the big challenges has been it's hard to move basic materials around during the course of the fighting. it would allow more humanitarian assistance into gaza and that's a priority even if there is no hostage deal and having a pause would make it easier to get more in faster. so there are other benefits that where not necessarily related to the deal that would be caused if they think they could get this done. >> and would there be americans involved in this released, jon? can you say that? >> we know there are americans held. it is very important to the president and all of us that americans be included in any

arrangement, and beyond that, i won't characterize who might or might not be coming out, and he has the utmost safety to the americans in a terrible situation like those being held in gaza. >> we've obviously learned that two of the hostages were devastatingly found dead. do you know the status of the remaining hostages? are they alive, jon? >> so one of the things that's incredibly challenging about this situation is we don't have good fidelity, good information about the condition and the status of all of the hostages who are being held. obviously, they're being held by hamas. the united states government does not speak directly to hamas. hamas has indicated that there are a significant number of hostages that they are holding who are alive. those are the hostages who we're any dwoesh yating for. we cannot speak to the hostages other than the two that you mentioned and we know the number is significant and for all these reasons it is important that this question as quickly as possible and the longer people are held in a dangerous

situation the more likely it is that something tragic beyond what's already happened to them could happen and we don't want to see that. >> jon, just big picture here. more than a hundred countries have called for a full and immediate ceasefire. does the united states risk being out of step with the rest of the world on this issue? >> so leaving aside what other countries are saying or doing, i want to be clear about our position because i think it's been consistent and it's been where the president has been for quite some time and i think where he is going to remain, right now hamas, which perpetrated the horrific act that began this phase of the conflict on october 7th, not only is not calling for a ceasefire, but they're saying they did this specifically to create a condition of perpetual war and if given the opportunity to do it again, they would do it again and again and again until israel is eliminated. under these circumstances we do

not believe it is responsible to ask israel to stop fighting hamas. we believe the threat that occurred in aor ho iffic way on october 7th will remain until it's been sufficiently diminished by these military operations, and that does not mean that we are not supportive of humanitarian pauses, including from multiple days first hostage deal, but over the course of normal combat operations to allow humanitarian assistance to be distributed. it also doesn't mean that we do not, i make very clear that we value every single life equally, palestinian lives and israeli lives, and we raise our concerns directly when there are operations that are taking place that we don't believe prioritize that. >> let me follow up on one point. the qatari prime minister said today that israel's actions in al shifa hospital are a, quote, crime.

does the united states stand by that hamas is headquartered underneath the hospital and are you confident that israel is following international law? >> we've been quite clear about our view of shifa. shifa is the largest hospital in gaza, the most advanced hospital in gaza, and there are severely ill patients, and they seek refuge during the course of the conflict and those lives need to be protected and we've been clear that our intelligence, u.s. intelligence not just israeli intelligence, have used al shifa in the execution of terrorist attacks and continues to do so. that does not, in our view, mean that israel should conduct air strikes on the hospital or ground assaults on the hospital. we've been equally clear about that, but hamas has put these people in severe jeopardy by the way in which it's conducting this war. this is a microcosm of the real challenge associated with this endoor conflict, and we've laid

out our position, and it's the same position i just articulated. >> are you confident israel is following international law, yes or no there? >> we are confident when we've seen issues that are raised and we raised them privately and directly. >> jon, you're saying -- >> -- playing judge and jury on this question. >> you said israel needs to follow international law. are you confident they are following international law? >> what i can say is it is not our position, certainly my position as a policymaker to play realtime judge and jury on the question of any particular incident. when we see things that concern us, we raise them. we have done so during the course of this conflict and we will restate that it is our position including israel, including the united states need to adhere to laws of armed conflict. hamas, by the way, not only does not hold itself to that standard, it boasts about its willingness and its realts of

violence, and the standards, and that is the challenge. >> the president said in his op-ed that the united states is prepared to issue visa bans against attacking civilians in the west bank. how soon will the u.s. move to enact those bans? is that a process that's already under way? >> i think you've heard the president speak about it publicly. many of his, if not all of his predecessors and his concerns about violence in the west bank perpetrated by extremist settlers against innocent palestinians. he's also raised those concerns very directly with prime minister netanyahu as we have with our israeli counterparts. you saw in the president's op-ed that the consequences could include visa bans against people associated with violence against innocent palestinians in the west bank. i suspect you will see us lay out more details of that approach in the coming days, but this is serious and we think it's hugely destabilizing.

we think it could lead to greater instability in the west bank, which is in nobody's interest, and so we will try to do our part to help the palestinian authority and the israeli defense forces keep a lid on what we believe is very troubling actions in the west bank. >> jon, would the administration go even further and call for freezing settlements in the west bank? >> i mean, i'm not going to get ahead of policy staples or decisions that have not been made or articulated at this point. we are quite clear about our concerns. our concerns are first and foremost related to violence that is being perpetrated. a number of palestinians in the west bank that have been killed every year since the second intefadeh and we'll hopefully eliminate it over time. >> jon finer, thank you very much for your insights and your time this morning. we really appreciate it. >> thanks again for having me. as the war between israel and hamas rages on, it is having a transformative impact in our politics.

we have a brand-new nbc news poll out this morning, which shows the toll it is taking on the president. i am joined now by national political correspondent steve kornacki to take us through the numbers. steve, some real stunning highlights here in this poll. >> absolutely. i think you're right to set it up that way. what's happening in the middle east really does seem to be connecting with what's happening domestically in our politics. let's start with the bottom line here. president biden, what is his job approval rating? we measure it now at 40% with 57% disapproving. the significance, that is the lowest president biden has ever measured in our poll in terms of job approval, and just look at the sea change from the start of this year. remember, democrats coming off strong from the 2020 midterms. >> significant there, steve. >> if you look by party, it's significant for two reasons.

one, independents, obviously, more than two to one disapprove. you don't want to be there as an incumbent president and equally significant, no surprise, 7% of republicans approve of joe biden's job performance, but three times as many democrats, 281%, that's more than one in five, say they disapprove. you need much more unified support in your own party than if you'll have a successful re-election campaign and we mentioned the drop in the approval rating and the connection of the middle east. on foreign policy, 33% approve of joe biden's job performance. just in september. we asked the same question, and it was 41-53. >> these numbers surprised our own pollsters with, jon, saying he cannot remember a time when a foreign entanglement that involved u.s. troops had the power to turn the electorate and that's not the case in this poll. >> no. to go even a step further on this one, i think this jumps out at you too. overall this is the handling of the israel/hamas war.

look at this. among the oldest group of voters, 65-plus, there's a majority that approve. plus 12. look at the youngest voters, 20 approve, 70% disapprove, and he's 50% underwater with the youngest voters, and that's a 62-point net swing between youngest and oldest on this topic of israel and hamas. >> it's a critical group of voters he needs in order to win re-election, that's for sure. >> we are showing you biden's problems and the question is who will the republicans nominate to oppose him? donald trump towering above the field here. two others in double digits. compare this to our last poll. again, trump is steady. the only growth here, right there, nikki haley. she grew last time. she grew a little bit more this time into double digits. >> those numbers are fuel by non-trump voters. i've been talking to sources inside trump world who say they're not panicking because of that, but it's clear she has real momentum here.

>> you look at voters who call things conservative, very conservative and they're very pro-trump. they seem a little reluctant, a little resistant to her and she has a breakthrough not just with moderates and independents. she's got a breakthrough with core, republican voters who like donald trump, if she wants to make this a real game with trump. okay, so if we are heading toward trump/bind, a rematch in 2024, how does that look in the polling right now? here it is. >> wow. >> donald trump we have at 46%, biden, 44. >> this is significant because this is the first time in the history of our poll that former president trump beats president biden still within the margin of error, but still significant. >> 2019, 2020 when trump was president he trailed all of them. this year he trailed all of them in our poll. it's the first time in a dozen polls we've seen a result like this.

some of the other ingredients, biden has long had an advantage over trump on likability. in the start of the year, 49% had a positive view of biden and 32, trump. we've seen a gap like this. now the gap is gone. 36% on both. and actually, biden, one point more negative than trump. that's been a significant advantage. that advantage for now may be gone and we talked about younger voters on foreign policy and it's true on a host of other topics and disaffected with joe biden. we have 46% for trump. 42% for biden. among the youngest voters. the youngest voters in the 2020 election were biden, plus 26. this could be a massive sea change. and if you take a look here, too, everybody sort of says, hey, i'm not too nuts about the possibility of this matchup. let's measure this one way, and here's how we did it. biden against an unnamed republican, and this is a referendum on biden. look at this, he goes from being in a dogfight with trump to double digits and flip it around. trump against an unnamed democrat and trump goes from

leading against biden to down six points against a democrat. >> just a fascinating look at the state of the race with just under a year to go. steve kornacki, great stuff. thank you very much for being here. when we come back, republican presidential candidate and former new jersey governor chris christie joins me next. new jersey governor chris christie joins me next

you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers?

it's true. plus when you buy your first line of mobile, you get a second line free. there are no term contracts or line activation fees. and you can bring your own device. oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible, it's happening. welcome back. last weekend former governor chris christie became the first republican presidential candidate to visit israel since the war began meeting with government officials and victims after the october 7th terrorist attacks as well as families of hostages being held in gaza. joining me now is chris christie, a candidate for president. welcome back to "meet the press," governor christie. >> thank you, kristen. >> let's dive right in. i want to ask you about this

deal this could be closing in. i just talked about it with jon finer. you just returned from israel. you saw this conflict up close. i'm curious, would you support an agreement that included a several-day pause in exchange for some women and children hostages being released? >> kristen, look, i spent, as you said, time in israel last week, and i met with the families of those who are being held hostage, and i have to tell you that both for israeli and american hostages that are being held, we need to get them home. the families gave me this, kristen, this dog tag, which says, bring them home now, and i really believe that it's time for the israeli government and the united states government to work out a fair deal to bring some of these hostages home. the torture these families are going through is extraordinary, and they need to get their

family members home. there are some children who are hostage. there are some folks in their 70s that are being held hostage. their health certainly must be at risk, especially for the older folks, and we need to get these people home, kristen. i would support a deal that is fair and equitable and one that gets these people home now. >> let me ask you, broadly speaking, about how israel is carrying out the war. the u.n. human rights chief has said that israel is, quote, committing war crimes in gaza. based on what you learned on your trip, do you believe that israel is following international law? >> yes, i absolutely do believe israel is following international law, kristen, and i will tell you, unlike a lot of other people who are expressed opinions about this, i was there. i spoke to the leaders in israel and spoke to the president of israel and spoke to the israeli defense force. i was 600 yards from the gaza border. i went everywhere in israel to see what's going on, and they're

doing everything they can to avoid civilian casualties. the problem is that hamas is forcing these civilians to stay in places where israel's warning them out of, dropping thousands of leaflets and sending hundreds of thousands of text messages to warn people away from areas before they're attacked. it is hamas that's doing this. and let us not forget for those advocating for a cease-fire, there was a cease-fire on october 6th, and it was hamas that broke it on october 7th. and i will tell you, i saw the 43-minute video that was put together from the israeli government from raw footage, from not only israeli sources, but from body cams and dash cams from hamas terrorists. what they did on october 7th was the greatest violation of international law and the greatest violation to humanity and the worst part, kristen, they did it with joy. we had one young man who called back to his family in hamas in a cell phone call that was interrupted and said, mom, i just killed ten jews with my bare hands.

your son is a hero. and his parents cheered him. >> it is horrific. as you know, there also an outcry for the civilians that have lost their lives in the wake of that, governor. since october 7th, more than 200 palestinians have been killed in the west bank. france has called settler violence a, quote, policy of terror. if you were president, what would you do about the violence in the west bank and would you go so far as to call for a freeze in the settlements there? >> what i would do, kristen, is do what friends do with friends. i would be speaking with prime minister netanyahu and the other officials in the israeli government in telling them that they have to get control over what's left with settlers in the west bank. what's going on in the west bank is very different than what's going on in gaza. hamas is in gaza. hamas is doing what it has done in gaza. >> would you call for a freeze, governor? would you call for a freeze in the settlement?

>> no, i would not. no, kristen, i would not call for a freeze. i would not be dictating policy to the israeli government, but i would advise as friends do that that type of violence in the west bank is a distraction from what needs to be done, which is protect israeli's territorial integrity and protect everything and that the chance for hamas to do this is again degraded militarily. >> a user accused jewish people of hating white people, which, as you know, is an anti-semitic plan, and he said it is crazy to call it anti-semitic. >> what we're seeing, kristen,

with the unmasking of anti-semitism. i don't want to say it's a rise. i think it's been there, and i think what we're seeing now due to what's happening in israel at the moment is the unmasking of that. we're seeing it all over college campuses and seeing it on social media sites like x and tiktok and other social media sites, and it is horrific, and i think the president of the united states needs to be much stronger than he's been in speaking out against anti-semitism in this country, and this is an outrageous type of hate, and we need to speak out against it, no matter who does it, whether it's elon musk, professors on our college campuses and students whether they are misleading or individuals that are speaking out in an antisemitic way on the streets of our cities. this is unacceptable and the president has not been strong enough in this point, in my view. >> governor, let me ask you about the biggest policy positions for republicans right now which is the issue of

abortion. your rival governor ron desantis signed a six-week ban in florida, as you know. donald trump said that was a, quote, terrible mistake. and just this weekend, nikki haley said on friday she would have signed a six-week ban as the governor of south carolina. where are you on this issue of a six-week ban, governor? can you be clear for voters? >> yeah. i sure can be. i think each state should make their own decision, kristen, and i think that's what dobbs was all about was letting each state and its people make their own decision, and we've seen referenda go on in places like kansas and ohio and other places where voters are getting to express their view on this, and that's the way it should always have been, and this is not a federal constitutional issue, and this is a state issue, kristen, and each state should make their own judgment on this, and i think the president or people running for president should not be in a position of picking a certain number of

weeks. >> governor, rnc chairwoman ronna mcdaniel say we can't just say it's a state's issue and be done. voters want clarity. so can you give them some? where do you stand on a six-week ban, governor? would you sign it if it had come to your desk in new jersey? >> with my democratic legislature in new jersey no ban would have come to my desk, kristen. so it's a ridiculous question, with all due respect. i'm not going to get into hypotheticals, kristen. i'm simply not. >> do you support a six-week ban? how do you feel about a six-week ban? >> kristen, i have said my position on this, which is that every state and its people should make its own judgment on this issue. i have governed as a pro-life governor in new jersey, and i believe in the sanctity of human life, but i'm not going to get into this media game of six weeks, 12 weeks, 16 week, 20 weeks. i want the american people to decide, and that's the right way to make this judgment. with all due respect to ronna, she's never governed, and she

doesn't know how hard these choices are and how you have to interact with people. this is an extraordinarily emotional issue for the american people and i think the supreme court has robbed the american people of their right to be heard on. they should be heard and nobody in washington, d.c., should rob the american people of the right to be heard in each and every state and when i'm president i won't do that. >> governor chris christie, thank you for join us this morning. we really appreciate it. >> kristen, thanks for having me. when we come back, democrat richard blumenthal of connecticut joins me next. something's cut joins me next. something' back, democrat richard blumenthal of connecti

hi, i'm darlene and i lost 40 pounds with golo in just eight months. golo has really taught me how to eat better and feel better. as long as you eat the right food groups in the right amounts, that's all it is. it's so simple and it works. golo was the smartest thing i ever did.

in order for small businesses to thrive, they need to be smart, efficient, savvy. making the most of every opportunity. that's why comcast business is introducing the small business bonus. for a limited time you can get up to a $1000 prepaid card with qualifying internet. yep, $1000. so switch to business internet from the company with the largest fastest reliable network and that powers more businesses than anyone else. learn how you can get $1000 back for your business today. comcast business. powering possibilities.

welcome back. tension over the israel/hamas war is simmering in the democratic party. owned half of democrats say they approve of president biden's handling of the war. a quarter of democrats say israeli military action in gaza is justified. more than half say israel has gone too far and its military

actions are not justified. joining me now is senator richard blumenthal of connecticut. welcome to "meet the press." thank you for being here. >> thank you. wonderful to be with you. >> i want to start off with this breaking news that negotiators may be closing in on a deal to release somg of the hostages in exchange for a potential pause in the fighting. what is your reaction to this and what can you tell us about this potential deal? what are you hearing? do you think americans might be involved? >> i think americans will be involved and must be involved. you know, i visited israel just weeks ago and met with many of the hostage families and it is just heartbreaking, gut-wrenching, and i've kept in touch with them and met with them here, talked on the phone and the release of the hostages is an imperative and americans must be included. i think we are closer than ever, but close is still no deal, and

verification and enforcement are key sticking points that need to be overcome. >> and just to be clear, what gives you confidence that americans are likely involved? >> i have a high degree of confidence that americans will be involved. there are nine of them and a green cardholder, perhaps more, but americans' involvement will be an imperative for the president, rightly so. >> you just heard deputy national security adviser jon finer stand by the u.s. intelligence and the israeli intelligence that has said that hamas has embedded itself in al shifa hospital. as you know, there is still a fair amount of skepticism about that charge globally speaking. what more does the u.s. -- what more does israel need to do, do you think, to prove that claim? >> a lot of the intelligence has been released already. some of the videos of one of the other hospitals, children's

hospitals, shows that there were tunnels and armed storage facilities under that hospital. obviously, there's video of a shaft at al shifa hospital, but here is the key point that i think is so important. there needs to be more transparency. both israel and the united states need to release more of this intelligence. time after time, kristen, when i have attended briefings in the classified section of the united states capital, i say at the end, our adversaries know this stuff. they know we know this stuff. they know we know they know it, and the only people who don't know it are the american public, and there is reliable intelligence that can and should be released without compromising sources and methods that would bolster israel's case in the court of world opinion and would also support the united states aiding israel as it must do.

>> would you take me to my next question. as you know, the president has called for congress to provide aid to israel and more aid to ukraine, taiwan as well as the border. senator bernie sanders has called to condition aid to israel on the, quote, end to the indiscriminate bombing and a freeze on settlement expansion. if that is a part of the deal for israel aid, would you support that? >> i would oppose conditions written into statutes as a criteria for aid to israel. i don't know how the united states congress, which has yet to pass a budget, can impose conditions for combat on an ally that is trying to defend itself as it has a right and responsibility to do under the most difficult conditions of warfare in recent history, and so i would be very low to impose

conditions that would, in effect, straitjacket or handcuff the idf in this very, very excruciaingly difficult challenge. >> let me take a step back and ask you about anti-semitism broadly, and i want to get your reaction to elon musk posting. the post was condemned by the white house, as you know, large companies like apple and comcast, parent company of nbc news has pulled advertising from the platform. what was your reaction and what is your concern when you see a post like that? >> my reaction to elon's post -- elon musk's post was absolutely abhorrent. his saying that this blatantly anti-semitic comment was, quote, the actual truth, is sickening and chilling, and elon musk has turned x formerly known as twitter into a cesspool of hate speech and extremist incitement,

and i encourage -- in fact, i urge advertisers like ibm, which has done so, to withdraw from x musk that hate has no place on this powerful megaphone, and as you know, the surge of anti-semitic, anti-muslim, white supreme cyst, anti-black sentiment on social media has been an incubator, in fact, an accelerant to more than just speech, action that constitutes hate crimes. >> just finally, senator, i want to ask you a little bit of politics now about our new polling, which shows for the very first time, president biden is getting beaten by former president trump within the margin of error. part of what's dragging down his poll numbers is a lack of support among younger voters for his handling of the israel/hamas war. how concerned are you about these numbers, and what do you think the president needs to do

do you think he's still the best candidate for 2024? >> i think he is the best candidate for 2024. i have confidence that he will overcome those poll numbers. we're a year away, but remember, even more important than the polls are what voters are doing. in the most recent elections in kentucky, ohio, pennsylvania, they showed that they prefer the biden record of accomplishment over the mega extremism, and here's the important point. in ohio, voters said we reject the effort to undercut women's health care and reproductive rights. i think we're going to see that issue on the ballot. president biden has a record of accomplishment on infrastructure, prescription drug prices, and a number of other issues that really matter, and maybe, most importantly, i've been championing this cause, women's reproductive rights.

>> senator blumenthal, thank you for being here. and when we come back, will senator joe manchin run for president in 2024? he's not ruling it out just yet. copd hasn't been pretty. it's tough to breathe and tough to keep wondering if this is as good as it gets. but trelegy has shown me that there's still beauty and breath to be had. because with three medicines in one inhaler, trelegy keeps my airways open and prevents future flare-ups. and with one dose a day, trelegy improves lung function so i can breathe more freely all day and night. trelegy won't replace a rescue inhaler for sudden breathing problems. tell your doctor if you have a heart condition or high blood pressure before taking it. do not take trelegy more than prescribed. trelegy may increase your risk of thrush, pneumonia, and osteoporosis. call your doctor if worsened breathing, chest pain, mouth or tongue swelling, problems urinating, vision changes, or eye pain occur. ♪ what a wonderful world ♪

ask your doctor about once-daily trelegy for copd because breathing should be beautiful.

welcome back. the last time his seat was up in 2018, democratic senator joe manchin said he'd wrestled with the idea of even running for re-election. here's how he described his conversation with senate democratic leader chuck schumer at the time and what led him to his eventual decision.

>> and i said, chuck, this place sucks. i said it. >> if it sucks, why are you running for re-election? >> because i think i can make it better. i think i can contribute to bringing people together. i don't have one republican that i consider not my friend. they're all my friends, and i want to work with them. >> that was blunt. this week i spoke with senator manchin on the heels of his announcement to leave congress at the end of his term. i pressed him on his 2024 plans and whether he'd consider an independent run for president. >> you've said you don't think you would be a spoiler. if you look at the polls, it shows that a third party candidate would take support away from president biden. what do you say to those who say you would be a spoiler? >> i've never been a spoiler in my life of anything and i wouldn't be a spoiler now. >> if you ran as a third-party candidate? >> everyone is saying it would tip the scales one way or the other. you have, basically, ross perot. who would have predicted that

ross perot would have elected bill clinton, tipped the scales to bill clinton? i don't think so. who would have predicted that bobby kennedy now with his support would tip the scales for donald trump or hurt donald trump? i'm sorry, and tip the scales for joe biden since he basically left the democratic party? i don't want them to predict these things. >> as you said here today, do you think president biden and vice president harris are the strongest ticket to represent the democratic party in 2024? >> not in the centrist part, no, i don't, and they know how i feel. i do not believe that they are basically where joe biden has come from and just to go back to the campaign. he's been here for long. he understands the system, and i think he's a good man, and we have good conversations, but we disagree.

you're going too far left. i can't go there. >> and you can see my full interview with senator joe manchin at meetthepress.com. when we come back, president biden hits a new low point in his presidency according to my new nbc news poll. the panel is here with all of their reaction next. e with all their reaction next. new nbc news poll.

welcome back. the panel is here. nbc news capitol hill correspondent ryan nobles. helene cooper, pentagon correspondent for "the new york times." former democratic congresswoman stephanie murphy of florida, and former republican congressman carlos curbelo, also of florida. thanks to all of you for being here. ryan, i want to start with you and the tough poll numbers of president biden showing president trump beating him for the first time. you've been talking to folks inside biden world. what are they telling you in. >> i think they know this is an issue for them and they're hoping that by this time next year and actually earlier than this time next year that voters understand that it's a binary choice. it's either going to be donald

trump or joe biden or some other republican, and even though they may not be specifically happy with the way the president has handled this situation, that they're not going to want to hand the white house to donald trump, and that means that they've got to get a lot of work done between now and then and they're aware of it. they're reaching out to these constituencies and explaining to them how the president is trying to balance the issues of these innocent palestinians along with the right for israel to defend itself, and part of it is they have to get something done and we have new report with the colleague julie sorkin about finding aid for israel in the congress which is toe difficult. we've been told by congressional leaders that they believe they have to get a package done between thanksgiving and christmas because if this extends into the new year and we're up against a funding deadline, it's going to be that much more difficult to get it done. >> and that is a tight timeline. helene, you talk about getting something done, it would be significant if there was, in fact, a deal to release the hostages because part of what this poll shows is that president biden is getting low marks for his handling of foreign policy, for his handling

of this war particularly among younger voters. they're just abandoning him on this issue. >> they really are. he's -- he's in danger of not losing his own party over this, but it's -- he's really seeing his support go down as your polls showed, among young democrats who are very angry of his full embrace, i would say, of the right-wing israeli government of benjamin netanyahu, and i think that's where this hostage deal could actually help president biden a little because this hostage deal of the hostages, of course, but it is also significant in that this would be the first deescalatory step we've seen since october. this is the first time that the two sides are starting to step back away from the escalation that we've had, and if it

bridge s with it a five-day humanitarian pause, people are hoping, people within the u.s. government are hoping, you don't know, maybe you can extend that pause, are hoping that this, at least for five days be a cessation of the bombing campaigns that you're seeing and this spiralling of the civilian death toll, which is what is hurting president biden, i think, in the polls. >> it is. it would be so significant and if you look, stephanie, this word cloud that we have on the poll. it is so fascinating. you see foreign policy mentioned at the top and backed out of student loan bills and the supreme court blocked the acts on student loans and funding for israel and gaza. >> the problem for president biden is that these are issues that are problems for him and not just democrats, but also with republicans and independents. for example, backed out of student loans. when he was unable to deliver on

the promise to cancel loans, he disappointed democrats and he also upset people who are non-college educated who said they were trying to take their taxpayer dollars and pay for someone else's education. he has struggled with economics across the board. bidenomics isn't being bought by the american people. >> a lot of strategists wanted to shift their message. nikki haley has real moment up here, but does she have enough time to catch up? we're about two months until iowa. >> well, kristen, something the nbc news poll reveals is both these front-runners, trump/biden, are very weak. they both have major liabilities, and this race for second place in the republican party is important, and someone like nikki haley, if she had the

opportunity to face off one-on-one with donald trump early in the primary season, we could see a path for her. some republicans are increasingly excited about haley and it's important not to dismiss this race for second place because who knows what will happen to both these front-runners? >> it's a great point. i want to ask you about something i talked to my guests about which is this rise in anti-semitic and, frankly, hate that we're seeing across the board online in addition to the elon musk post that we talked about. we saw this stunning thing, this letter by osama bin laden justifying the 9/11 attacks saying it's hard to even talk about, the letter is filled with anti-semitic hate in it. is this a national security threat? >> i don't know, it's such a good question, and that letter made me crazy. a friend of mine sent me the tiktok video, and it's not the letter. we've all seen the letter. the letter came out back in 2002, back in the bombings when osama bin laden released this, and we read it in the "time," and all of a sudden it resurfaces 20 years later, and we have these tiktok users who

are tweeting and going and posting this letter and saying, oh, we now realize that everything we learned and we thought we knew about america was wrong because suddenly, is this the first time that they're reading somebody, criticizing american policy and they're not used to that? >> social media is where we see these things and we react and we want to blame social media, but this is something that exists in our society, there is a truth crisis in our society and there's an education failure in our society and young people are disenfranchised in our society which is probably why they're acting out, and you can kind of understand them if you're 20, 25 years old and you're asked to make a choice between joe biden and donald trump in terms of who will lead you, you can understand why some of these people are frustrated. >> and why a lot of them may just sit out, right? i think that's among the many concerns that are facing the biden white house and the biden campaign right now. it's not so much that they're worried that their voters will support donald trump or nikki haley.

they're more worried that they'll stay home, and they can't afford that. >> it's not a coincidence that young people who consume so much social media are also having these conversations in public, and i think the big concern here is are they debating americans to americans on social media or are there outside influences stoking division in america? >> great conversation, everyone. that is all for today. thank you for watching. happy thanksgiving. we'll be back next week because if it's sunday, it's "meet the press." et the press. all for today. thank you for watching. happy thanksgiving. we'll be back next week because if it's sunday, it's "meet the press." s. >> there certainly is a gap that was unexpected with respect to israel's intelligence gathering. we saw the failures of october 7th where they failed to see the