insurance. good to be with you, i'm katy tur coming to you today from, wait for it, manchester, new hampshire. so why new hampshire on this iowa caucus day? well, because as nikki haley undiplomatically put it, new hampshire is where the race starts to really matter. iowa, as much as we love her, rarely picks a winner. while new hampshire has repeatedly given a b12 shot to the underdog. bill clinton in '92, john mccain in '08, now nikki haley wants in

on that list. and voters in this notoriously independent state tell me they are just waiting for her to prove that she can do it. so can she? if you add chris christie's support to hers here in new hampshire, the math is close. we have the narrow paths you could follow out of the granite state with the atlantic's mark leibovich, but before she goes anywhere, she's got to make it through tonight's caucus where it is 0 degrees and getting colder. joining us now from des moines, iowa, is nbc news correspondent ali vitali, staff writer at the atlantic and msnbc political contributor, mark leibovich, and here on set with me is nbc news correspondent shaquille brewster. ali, i'm so happy to see you inside on this very very cold day. tell me what nikki haley is doing in the last moments before this caucus tonight? >> she's making the rounds still, katy.

on the campaign trail circuit. specifically in the area that sort of makes a doughnut around des moines. and that's because her focus here in iowa is really going to be to gin up turnout in the suburban areas outside of the population centers that you and i spent so much time in in 2016, places like iowa city and davenport, and certainly des moines. if you look back to 2016 when we were all out here, the counties that marco rubio had done pretty well in, those are the places that nikki haley is likely to be focusing her energy and where her campaign, according to my conversations with them is going to be focusing when results start coming in tonight. at the same time, though, she's urging her voters this morning, please get out and vote. don't let me surging into second place make you rest on your laurels some how. watch. >> i mean, he's only played in iowa. he's invisible in new hampshire. he's invisible in south carolina. he's fourth and fifth place in both of those. i mean, i welcome him to south carolina, but we're headed to

new hampshire. that's the next state that votes. somebody might want to tell him that. >> and of course long day. that was me talking with the former south carolina governor about ron desantis because for her, the focus in the state is getting in second, which is typically not the kind of spin that we're used to receiving from campaigns. usually around this time, it would be every different candidate trying to say why they're going to win in iowa. for haley, they're not making that argument. but what they are trying to do is get ron desantis out of the way here in iowa so that they can roll into new hampshire feeling like this is the race that they have been looking towards the entire time she has been in this race. haley really wants it to look like it's haley versus trump on the ground in new hampshire, and quite frankly when she says that ron desantis is in her words, invisible in new hampshire and south carolina, she's trying to reference the fact that even though he says he's built for the long haul, she doesn't see it, and she'd like it to be a much smaller field. that's where her campaign thinks

she'll thrive. >> ali, what does she say about the favorability rating, the "des moines register" poll has her in second place, but her favorability has her a lot lower than ron desantis, in a caucus, second place, second choice is what matters and if more people go to ron desantis for their second choice, she's not going to come in second. how does she ensure she has the enthusiasm there? the ground became in iowa? >> the enthusiasmetric is one we have been paying attenon to. as you know, there is seemingly an enthusiasm gap on the haley part compared to the rest of her competitor. 4 in 10 are enthusiastic about getting out to caucus for her. i know you're cold in new hampshire, but it's balmy compared to what we're experiencing in des moines, iowa and other places in iowa. people are going to need to feel that enthusiasm, if they're going to get out and vote.

that's one piece of the equation. the ground game piece is another. haley's campaign has nothing on the ground game that someone like ron desantis has invested in a state like iowa. they have the backup of states for prosperity, that's a big organization that allows a lot of footprints on the ground in iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, and that is really just a bolster. in my conversations with haley, she's brushing off concerns about enthusiasm. her campaign has been clear, the help from afp is a big help when you consider a state like iowa where she didn't put her resources but now they're expecting a big performance anyway. >> so obviously we're watching iowa as reporters. i noticed, you told me this yesterday or on saturday night, people here are watching iowa to see how they're going to vote on primary night next week. i ended up hearing the same thing. i want to play one of the gentlemen i spoke with earlier, he's not a politics guy, doesn't

want to participate, but he's interested in nikki haley. there's just one thing. listen. >> it's coming. >> if i had to choose, probably nikki haley. >> really, why? >> i think it's time that we had a woman in office, and i like her believes, what she's standing for. i think the country needs change. i think it's time. i've never really been political, but i think it's time for change. >> so no trump. >> no trump. >> we've got some bugs in the system. we're working them out. tell me what you're hearing from voters? because this idea that she has to show that she can do it in iowa. >> right. >> what is a win for her? what is a good second place number? >> well, it depends on who you talk to. look, when you talk to voters in new hampshire, you know new hampshire voters, they are fiercely independent, if not by party, at least by spirit. they don't want to really lean into the idea that they're

watching other states too closely, and that will influence what they do here. but they acknowledge that what happens in iowa will influence and impact how they view these candidates. if nikki haley comes out with a strong second place or even honestly a second place finish in a state where you heard ali mentioning she didn't invest all of her resources into, that could make her look like the stronger contender once she gets to the state of new hampshire. talking to voters, there's a lot they're watching. i want to play sound from folks in the conversations i have been having today. >> i'm going to vote for nikki haley to try to slow trump's momentum. >> that's the main reason you're supporting nikki haley? >> yes, i wouldn't vote for her in the general. if she were to win over trump, which is probably not that likely, i would support joe biden over her. but i think we need to slow this person down. >> reporter: are you leaning any way right now, based on the television ads, based on what

you have heard, the little you have heard up to this point. >> reporter: i'm -- >> i'm decided. >> how did you know that was an option to watch write him? >> i was following the news on the dnc's position on changing the first in the nation primary, and the ad campaign he has been pushing has been informative also. >> reporter: you've seen the ads? >> yes. >> reporter: you voted for trump twice, why are you considering another candidate? >> just looking at it with fresh eyes, compared to the issues in 2016 and 2020, it's a completely different country right now, i felt. so i think that with new issues maybe somebody might bring something fresh to the table. >> reporter: and i'm glad we included that sound from the biden voter because that is another story line in new hampshire. in iowa, it's all about the republicans. that's where all the action is taking place. here, biden and the dnc are not officially part of the primary

process. you have democrats here saying, i'm still willing to write him in, or meddling in the republican primary process, as a way to be involved. >> reporter: democrats are really angry about them getting skipped in this primary season, and it's starting in south carolina. don't discount that anger that democrats are feeling toward president biden right now. mark, i want to talk about nikki haley's strategy here. one of the lines we keep hearing her say is that chaos follows donald trump. and to some, that can sound like her not directly attacking him, not really going after him. but i was talking to our embed here in new hampshire who has been living here now six months, and she said that is a liberia that she hears over and over again from new hampshire voters about why they're considering nikki haley. both from voters who are looking for somebody new because they don't like donald trump any longer, and from voters who do like donald trump but have to concede that, yes, chaos does follow him. >> yeah, i mean, look, i think that it's clearly something she

said repeatedly, in the course of reporting this story, i probably heard that, you know, several times a day. the full quote is actually rightly or wrongly chaos follows, and adds a different layer of a new sort of level of passiveness to the quote. i get it. people think chaos. it is not the chaos in the way haley talks about this. she doesn't cause about trump causing the chaos. it's like the chaos follows him passively. chaos is the catch all for january 6th, for whatever is, you know, embedded in the 91 counts of criminal misconduct, and what have you. so it's much more than that, and i think that that goes to a kind of ceiling in nikki haley's support, which is that she has not gone after trump in a real way and if she wants to win and does well in iowa and new hampshire, and has a straight shot in some of the later states, especially if desantis gets out, she's going to have to more frontally attack donald trump than run to win.

at this point, she's running a race that's more cautious, certainly doesn't look like a campaign for first place. looks more like a campaign for running mate or 2028 or something to the effect that, you know, maybe it's not going to happen this time. i do think that that is emblematic of the kind of halfhearted effort she will put forth or has put forth to this point in attacking donald trump. >> so if she does start to win, though, say she gets a solid second place tonight, and potentially pulls off a win here. if you add chris christie's support to hers, it about totals donald trump's support. that's assuming that all christie voters go to her. we'll see about that. i was listening to you on the atlantic podcast the other day, and you talked about nikki haley's path forward out of new hampshire, and through the rest of the primaries as not really a path but a deer trail. can you explain that? >> yeah, actually, i was questioning the use of deer trail. it was somebody else who used the expression. i would say this, i think the

conventional wisdom is nikki haley has a small shot at doing this. i also think it is a legitimate shot, and i think it might be a little bigger than what everyone says. look, especially if desantis under performs tonight, and decides to drop out even before new hampshire. he seems to be signaling that south carolina is his next point of emphasis, but i don't really see him competing in a serious way, especially if he gets clobbered in new hampshire. at some point she needs to amp this up a little bit, and she's not there yet. maybe she's calculated that will begin after tonight. maybe it will begin after new hampshire, once you go down to south carolina, if she performs well in new hampshire. look, it's a lot of strategy. i don't pretend to know what's going on inside the campaign strategy wise. i think she has a shot, and if she plays this right, it could be a lot more interesting than we think a couple of weeks. >> does desantis stay in the

race if he doesn't win in iowa f he doesn't come in second in iowa? >> i think it depends on how bad the third place. obviously he says not. i don't think you can take what a candidate says on election day about their future plans with much more than a grain of salt. i don't know how he doesn't do anything that play a spoiler or isn't wasting time and money. since he staked the whole thing on iowa for months now. you become dubious when at the last minute you say, i can't finish third if it's a strong third. so i don't think he should stay. who knows what he will actually do. >> for once he has been saying he will win iowa. he's calling himself now the underdog, that he's going to do well in iowa. the change in the rhetoric tells you something. mark leibovich, ali vitali, shaq brewster, thank you very much. what new hampshire voters say they will do to keep donald

trump from getting the nomination. and if nikki haley makes a real go at it, what happens to the republican party? we are back in 60 seconds. secon. a force to be reckon with. no, not you saquon. hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money, now earns 5% apy. 5% apy? that's new! yup, that's how you business differently.

daniel, how are you? how are you feeling? what are you thinking? >> i'm all over the place. i don't know what to do. talking to my friends, what are you guys doing? >> what's the conversatio? >> what do you do. who's paying attention to us, things like that. >> are you going to watch the caucus tonight? >> i am interested in the caucus. >> what are you interested in? >> i want to see how it unfolds, how people react to the candidates talking, then they make their vote. i want to see how that goes and who really is going to be the front runner tomorrow morning. >> is that going to change the way you vote on tuesday? >> it's possible, very possible. >> are you considering somebody other than donald trump.

>> i am. >> who? >> i'm not telling you. >> but you're going to watch tonight. >> yeah, i am to find out. >> thank you. >> who are you with? >> msnbc. >> thank you so much. >> it's great to talk to you. i love that you're going to vote on tuesday, participate. >> we got to. got to. >> where are you from? connecticut? >> i'm from brooklyn. >> he was asking me if i was going to vote. i said i can't, i'm from brooklyn. the live free or die state, being undeclared is a point of pride. there are a lot of undecided daniels out there like we saw. there are a lot of other republican, would be republican voters who say to them one thing is clear, no more trump. listen to my conversation with thali, marie, and hella, three women who tell me they are registering republican for the primary in the hope that it will let them cast a new ballot in

november. >> desperate times right now, so it's very critical. this election cycle is really important. >> why do you think it's so critical? >> because i really believe that democracy is on the line this time around. and we need to make sure that democracy prevails. >> i think republicans need to make a choice between if they want the white house or if they want trump, if they're all about him. because he's not a sure thing. just like biden's not a sure thing for the democrats. but i think nikki haley has more of a shot of beating joe biden because she's going to pull some of those moderates out, and i think she's really got a chance. if they want the white house, their best bet is to go with her. >> do you think trump is dangerous for democracy? >> oh, absolutely. >> oh, for sure. yes. he's pretty much said so himself. >> he's proven he doesn't understand how government works, he just wants to destroy it, break it down and do his own thing. >> and my concern with him is

that fascination with dictatorships. >> nikki haley gets the nomination, you guys are voting for nikki haley. >> i am. >> yes. >> joining us now, former rnc member, executive committee member, former new hampshire republican party chair and cofounder of the lincoln project, jennifer horn. i miss you, it has been too long. >> well, thank you. it has been way too long. i cannot believe that you're sitting outside right now. you've lost your mind. >> i have a heated vest on. i've got a heater blowing at my feet. i'm doing very well. let me ask you about what those women were just telling me. listen, they're undeclared voters. they have voted for democrats in the past. they don't love joe biden. they are desperate for somebody else to vote for, as long as that person is not donald trump or ron desantis. they want nikki haley. is the republican party missing an opportunity here? >> the republican party has

missed 100 opportunities over the last four years, haven't they? excuse me, but they are definitely missing an opportunity here. but here's the catch with all of this, especially in new hampshire. we always talk about the idea that independent voters can come in on primary day and vote in whichever party they want. and people always talk about that as is something crazy going to happen. something big going to happen. excuse me, katy, i apologize, and it never does. there's no question that donald trump is just such a bomb thrower. he's just completely blown up the entire political process in our country that if ever there was a time when people really would organize in a way that having these independents come in and vote, you know, with a different party would make a difference. this would be it. but with the competing influence of the democrats trying to turn out folks to write in joe biden,

i just don't know how that's going to work out. i don't see a huge flounce on the number of voters that nikki haley ends up getting here. >> well, tell me what you're hearing in new hampshire because when i talk to people, i have been hearing nikki haley, nikki haley, nikki haley, i haven't been hearing trump as much. i talked to our embed who has been living here for six months who says she keeps hearing nikki haley, nikki haley, organically at the grocery store and the street. not so much hearing donald trump organically except at the events he has done. do you see nikki haley as actually having a shot in this state now that chris christie is out or are you thinking that it's all trump all the way? >> yeah, i have to say, nikki haley's greatest strength, the best thing that has happened to her candidacy has been that afp money. there's no question when that came into the race that pushed her in a way and was able to get her message by the way. >> this is the koch brothers.

>> the american prosperity, funded by the koch brothers. that is what has spread her message the way it has. people are using the line about chaos, that's why they're hearing it as often as they are. i don't think nikki haley beats donald trump in new hampshire. the average difference between them is still in the double digits, 13 points. could she make that up in a week. sure she could. i don't think she's going to, however. governor sununu -- but i don't think that he is able to get her the votes from the demographics that she needs. and i really think that everything we've seen with trump, go back and think about 2016, his support is always underestimated. his supporters don't, you know, don't act the way that other regular, you know, activists and supporters do.

no matter what the weather is, no matter what the attacks are, no matter what happens in the courtroom over the next seven days, his people, 100% of them will turn out. i don't see that enthusiasm for nikki haley. >> what about governor sununu, and i wonder if this affects things. governor sununu is a surrogate for nikki haley, he's endorsed her, telling everyone to vote for nikki haley, at the same time, he's saying if nikki haley doesn't win, he's going to vote for donald trump, no matter if he's convicted, no matter the investigations, what does that say to people out here? >> nikki haley says the same thing. that's a stumbling block for her. if anybody hasn't already decided, you know, if they're looking for an anti-trump alternative, and you're out there saying i'm a better choice than trump and i'm going to vote for trump if he wins, that's hard to get over. and she and her loudest surrogate are saying that in every interview, everywhere they

go. that's been a problem from the beginning of this primary, and i think that you see that in new hampshire in the way that the votes have sort of settled in now as well. now, for nikki haley, i heard you talking about this a little while ago, nikki haley and desantis, you know, what does she need? does she need to beat trump in new hampshire to move on? she has to beat at least everyone but trump and be really close to him, and double digits don't count. her message hasn't been that he was awful and i'm great, her message has been i can win. if she can't prove that she can win. if she comes in third in iowa, and second in new hampshire, and she still is pretty far behind in her own home state, she loses that message, and she has set herself up in a way that she doesn't have a fall back to a message number two. i apologize, i have a little cold. >> everybody has a cold. don't worry. if donald trump wins iowa and new hampshire, it's hard to see

who could possibly come out, it's hard to see the nomination going anywhere but for donald trump after the two states. jen horn, i hope you feel better. thank you very much for joining us. appreciate it. >> thank you. coming up, what the white house is asking israel to do now, first, though, what happens when the caucus needs a force more powerful than politics. the turnout impact on one of the coldest nights in iowa history. e to perform through pain. if you're like me, one of the millions suffering from pain caused by migraine, nurtec odt may help. it's the only medication that can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks. treat and prevent, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. relief is possible. talk to a doctor about nurtec odt. ♪3, 4♪ ♪ relief is possible.

♪hey♪ ♪ ♪are you ready for me♪ ♪are you ready♪ ♪are you ready♪ >> woman: what's my safelite story? i see inspiration right through my glass. so when my windshield cracked, i chose safelite. they replaced the glass and recalibrated my safety system. that's service i can trust. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪

- i got the cabin for three days. it's gonna be sweet! what? i'm 12 hours short. - have a fun weekend. - ♪ unnecessary action hero! unnecessary. ♪ - was that necessary? - no. neither is a blown weekend. with paycom, employees do their own payroll so you can fix problems before they become problems. - hmm! get paycom and make the unnecessary, unnecessary. - see you down the line. singlecare is amazing. even though i have insurance, it can't beat the pricing

i get on my medication through singlecare. before i submit any prescriptions, i always check singlecare first! just go to singlecare.com, search for your prescription and show the coupon to your pharmacist. millions of people on medicare, just like me, use singlecare every month, and you can too! visit singlecare.com and start saving today. get over here kids. use singlecare every month, and you can too! time for today's lesson.

wow. -whoa. what are those? these are humans. they rely on something called the internet to survive. huh, powers out. [ gasp ] are they gonna to die? worse, they are gonna get bored. [ gasp ] wait look! they figured out a way to keep the internet on. yeah! -nature finds a way. [ grunt ] stay connected when the power goes out, with storm ready wifi from xfinity. and see migration in theaters now.

the iowa caucus begins in three and a half hours with six months of campaigning behind them. the candidates are trying to cram in final face time. ron desantis is making a final few spot, currently in sergeant bluffs, nikki haley is at a diner in pella, and donald trump is presumably somewhere warm as his son, and allies like jim jordan, matt gaetz, and marjorie taylor greene are in fort dodge, holding a campaign event for him. the biggest story out of iowa, other than marjorie taylor greene's jacket is the weather and the negative 45 degree windchills that are expected to blow through tonight. joining us now from ankeny iowa, garrett haake, on the road driving from fort dodge to des moines, oh, actually you're not driving any longer, vaughn hillyard, you're stationary. vaughn hillyard joins us also in des moines, nbc news

correspondent, dasha burns. >> that was very cute the way you said that. garrett, give me an update on donald trump, why is he not getting face time today like the other candidates are? >> reporter: the bottom line is because he doesn't feel like he has to. the lead he has built up in this state is something that could ultimately lead to breaking a record. we expect his son, donald trump jr., where i am right now in ankeny, north of des moines, if you look at where donald trump and has allies have been in the last two days, webster county, warren county, polk county where i am. counties run by ted cruz, marco rubio, it speaks to the way donald trump has been able to consolidate report across the breadth of the republican party, evangelical voters who broke for cruz, our polls say they support him, new caucus goers, young or new to the process, really from across the kind of rural expanse of iowa going for donald trump.

or even for more educated voters who went for marco rubio last time. they are building, they believe a broad coalition that they hope will continue to show up tonight and not be distracted by either complacency from what the polling has shown or the cold. you mentioned negative 45. it's a dry cold. >> all right. i'll take your word for it. vaughn, let me ask you about, garrett touched on who donald trump is trying to get out there. you were able to talk to some voters. one of the groups that the campaign says they're focused on is new caucus goers. new caucus balloters. what are you hearing from people on their eagerness to get out there, even in the frigid temperatures. >> reporter: if we go back first of all, to 2016, we were taken aback with how many new caucus

goers there were in 2016. the record for the gop turnout in 2016 shattered any other republican caucus ever. the previous record was 120,000. in 2016, it was 186,000. but the trump campaign says there's a heck of a lot more people that they are able to mobilize and have already identified as would be first time caucus goers this time around. take a listen to two of the women i just met who are in that exact circumstance right now. >> eight years ago, who did you caucus for? >> okay. i didn't caucus. >> i didn't either. >> but this is why i am this year. >> otherwise it would have been trump. >> what are you hearing from family and friends in terms of support for trump, versus haley and desantis. >> oh, trump. >> completely trump. >> completely. >> reporter: do you know anybody who's going to caucus for haley or desantis? >> yes, i do. and i'm going to try to switch them over. >> reporter: the last republican caucus, katy, that you and i

covered is a very different one here in 2024, and that's why at this event, we wanted to drive up to fort dodge, two hours north of des moines, call it the superstar cast of trump loyalists, marjorie taylor greene, matt gaetz, byron donalds, kari lake, jim jordan, each of them have been speaking for the last two hours at this event, at one of the final trump campaign events to try to activate folks in the northern part of the state. >> vaughn, you're in fort dodge. let's, dasha, talk about ron desantis. he has been tempering expectations for months and months and months he said he was going to win iowa. he's got all the endorsements that iowa would want. he's got the religious endorsements, the governor there, now he's calling himself the underdog, and saying that he's going to do well. what's behind that change? >> reporter: well, first of all, katy, i think it is your coat that should be making headlines right now, just for being absolutely fabulous, though i dare you to come and host a show in iowa in these temperatures

outside right now. look, right now, he is crisscrossing the state from sergeant bluffs to council bluffs, to cedar rapids, and he'll be holding his watch party. the narrative has changed. we take a step back. i'm old enough to remember, it wasn't that long ago that he was the rising star in the republican party. the guy everybody thought could actually potentially beat donald trump in the republican primary. now, not only is he not within striking distance of the former president. he's fighting it out for second place, not just nationally, here in iowa, where he has gone all in with all of his resources, all of the right endorsements, no doubt tonight he is hoping against all odds for second place. here are two factors that might actually help make that happen. the weather and his organization in this state. because they started organizing here early last year. and they started identifying recruiting those precinct

captains. they hired a ton of staff here, moved a ton of staff here. that might be the difference between second and third place for them because of these frigid temperatures and because of the way caucuses work. it's not just a regular voting day, a regular primary where you go and check the box and leave. you have to get there at a certain time. you have to listen to the speeches, go through the whole process, and that's where they think they might have an advantage because of the work they put in here. again, an advantage to get to second, instead of third, into the knot into first place. which she was saying months ago, i'm going to win iowa, now he's the underdog. >> it's negative 2 in west des moines, the weather is a factor. even if there are record turnouts, and 200,000 republicans show up to caucus, there are 800,000 registered republicans in iowa. that means just 1/4 of the registered republicans in the state are going to choose who moves on. not very many people. dasha burns, vaughn hillyard,

garrett haake, thank you very much. and coming up, what exactly is a caucus again? nbc's jacob soboroff is back in iowa to explain how it all works as only jacob soboroff can. i think i changed my mind about these glasses. yeah, it happens. that's why visionworks gives you 100 days to change your mind. it's simple. anything else i can help you with? like what? visionworks. see the difference. here's to getting better with age. here's to beating these two every thursday. help fuel today with boost high protein, complete nutrition you need... ...without the stuff you don't. so, here's to now. boost. (christina) with verizon business unlimited, i get 5g, truly unlimited data, and unlimited hotspot data. so, here's to now. so, no matter what, i'm running this kitchen. (vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon.

want luxury hair repair that doesn't cost $50? pantene's pro-vitamin formula repairs hair. as well as the leading luxury bonding treatment. for softness and resilience, without the price tag. if you know... you know it's pantene. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley

today marks 101 days since hamas attacked and slaughtered more than 1,200 people in israel on october 7th, the worst

violence against jews since the holocaust. in that time, israel has waged a punishing war in gaza which has killed more than 24,000 people. now nbc news reports the white house is telling israel it is time to scale back. joining us now from tel aviv is nbc news correspondent raf sanchez. so how is that message falling on benjamin netanyahu's ears, raf? >> reporter: well, we heard from benjamin netanyahu over the weekend, marking that 100-day mark. and he says israel will continue fighting to what he calls total victory, and that israel will not be forced into stopping its campaign by the u.s., by the international court of justice, by the international community. we've heard netanyahu define his war aims. he says he wants to destroy hamas, he wants to free the hostages. it's notable, 100 days into the war, it's still not clear what the israeli government's plan is for gaza after hamas.

we have seen the israeli military scaling back its operations. they say they're mostly finished their operations in the north. in the south, they say they are trying to be more surgical, but we are still seeing more than 100 palestinians killed every day, according to the health ministry in gaza, which is controlled by hamas, and we're hearing today from the united nations that the window to avert wild scale famine in gaza is running out. the u.n. says not enough trucks are getting through, there are not enough crossings open, and that there is simply too much fighting going on to actually deliver the aid to the people who need it most inside gaza, katy. >> let me also ask you about what's happening in the red sea. the u.s. and the uk and other nations did calculated strikes on yemen and the houthis to try to deter them from continuing to attack ships in the red sea. but they're still doing so. what happened today?

>> reporter: they're still doing so. so central command, the u.s. military command saying earlier today the houthis fired a ballistic missile that hit an american-owned cargo ship off the southern coast of yemen. that ship, the gibraltar eagle was able to continue on its journey. it underscores the u.s. and uk launched 100 missiles against houthi sites on friday. they followed up with more strikes on saturday. the goal of this operation, according to president biden, was to deter the houthis from attacking ships in the red sea. and they are not deterred. clearly. they took responsibility, proudly for this attack on this american-owned ship, and they say that these strikes will continue until there's a cease fire in gaza, and the risk of escalation continues every day that there is this shooting. yesterday, the houthis fired a missile towards an american warship in the red sea. that was intercepted by an

american fighter jet. it feels like a matter of time before this potentially escalates further, katy. >> reporter: raf sanchez, thank you very much. and still ahead, the nomination contests officially start tonight, but will donald trump really be on the ballot in all 50 states? an update on the court case that could disqualify him across the country. first, though, if you were asking yourself how does the iowa caucus work again? well, we have that answer. nbc's jacob soboroff is inside a caucus super site to show us.

type 2 diabetes? discover the ozempic® tri-zone. ♪ ♪ i got the power of 3. i lowered my a1c, cv risk, and lost some weight. in studies, the majority of people reached an a1c under 7 and maintained it. i'm under 7. ozempic® lowers the risk of major cardiovascular events such as stroke, heart attack, or death in adults also with known heart disease. i'm lowering my risk. adults lost up to 14 pounds. i lost some weight.

ozempic® isn't for people with type 1 diabetes. don't share needles or pens, or reuse needles. don't take ozempic® if you or your family ever had medullary thyroid cancer, or have multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2, or if allergic to it. stop ozempic® and get medical help right away if you get a lump or swelling in your neck, severe stomach pain, or an allergic reaction. serious side effects may include pancreatitis. gallbladder problems may occur. tell your provider about vision problems or changes. taking ozempic® with a sulfonylurea or insulin may increase low blood sugar risk. side effects like nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea may lead to dehydration, which may worsen kidney problems. living with type 2 diabetes? ask about the power of 3 with ozempic®. i found a cheaper price on my meds with singlecare. did you say singlecare? i use singlecare. are we talking singlecare? i saved 40 bucks with singlecare. -that's cool. - yeah. i have all my customers check the singlecare price first. good job. whenever my customers ask me if there's a cheaper price on their meds. i always tell them about singlecare. you just search your prescription, find the best price and show your coupon, in the app, to the pharmacist. i found a cheaper price with singlecare!

i know. download the singlecare app free today. my mental health was much better. but i struggled with uncontrollable movements called td, tardive dyskinesia. td can be caused by some mental health meds. and it's unlikely to improve without treatment. i felt like my movements were in the spotlight. #1-prescribed ingrezza is the only td treatment for adults that's always one pill, once daily. ingrezza 80 mg is proven to reduce td movements in 7 out of 10 people. people taking ingrezza can stay on most mental health meds. ingrezza can cause depression, suicidal thoughts, or actions in patients with huntington's disease. pay close attention to and call your doctor if you become depressed, have sudden changes in mood, behaviors, feelings, or have thoughts of suicide. don't take ingrezza if you're allergic to its ingredients. ingrezza may cause serious side effects, including angioedema, potential heart rhythm problems, and abnormal movements. report fevers, stiff muscles, or problems thinking as these may be life threatening. sleepiness is the most common side effect. it's nice. people focus more on me.

ask your doctor about #1 prescribed, once-daily ingrezza. ♪ ingrezza ♪ do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance.

it is january of an election year, which means it's that time again, when the country starts scratching its head to remember how exactly a caucus works. good thing nbc news correspondent jacob soboroff is back in iowa and back in his mustard yellow corduroy button down to help us work it out. >> so later this evening, this is where all of the residents in the county are going to come, and on that stage, they are going to hear speeches from the different campaigns to convince them to come out and caucus. maybe as many as a thousand people. this is ottumwa high school, as i told you. it dates to about 1923. it is an incredible place. they just celebrated their 100-year anniversary, as you can see here, go bulldogs. what they're going to do is come

down these stairs, and the caucus is a little bit different from the democratic caucus which nobody happens and everybody is in the same room. here's there's 22 different precincts in what's known as a super caucus location. everybody from the different parts of this county are going to come down this hallway into classrooms, as a matter of fact, so for instance, there's classroom 120 right over here. usually you can see on the walls here, it's a spanish classroom, but this evening it is going to be a singular precinct location. you're going to take your ballot, put it in the ballot box, and they're going to count the ballot in the room. this is not but official results are tabulated over here. ultimately this place like it was back in 2016 may very well prove interesting to the results and important to look at because president trump won particularly big here by about 36 percentage points, maybe 35 percentage points. we'll look at the margin ultimately and see how he does here tonight. if it is bigger, that will be interesting and indicative of some kind of shift.

if it is smaller, the same in the opposite direction. all the results from the classrooms will be brought here into the cafeteria. they will tabulate the results. they will have a big white board in the cafeteria. and that is where the results ultimate ly will be presented t the public. ultimately results for iowa itself. >> my friend jacob has been wearing that jacket for so long, for eight years now, except eight years as go when he first started, it was buttoned. okay. coming up, more than 30 states have challenged donald trump's name on the ballot. what the supreme court will consider. mainly because i just love helping people. as i got older, it was just a natural part of aging, i felt that my memory was beginning to decline and that's when i started looking for something that would help. when i first started taking prevagen, i noticed my memory was so much better.

just stuff seemed to come together and fit like a jigsaw puzzle in my mind. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription. not flossing well? then add the whoa! of listerine to your routine. new science shows listerine is 5x more effective than floss at reducing plaque above the gumline. for a cleaner, healthier mouth. ahhhhh. listerine. feel the whoa! i know what it's like to perform through pain. if you're like me, one of the millions suffering from pain caused by migraine, nurtec odt may help. it's the only medication that can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks. treat and prevent, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using.

most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. relief is possible. talk to a doctor about nurtec odt. when you shop wayfair, relief is possible. you get big deals for your home - every day. so big, we'll have you saying... am i a big deal? yeah you are, because it's a big deal, when you get a big deal. wayfair deals so big that you might get a big head. because with savings so real - you can get your dream sofa for half the price. wayfair. it's always a big deal. ♪ wayfair you've got just what i need ♪ only unitedhealthcare medicare advantage plans come with the ucard — one simple member card that opens doors for what matters. what if we need to see a doctor away from home? we got you — with medicare advantage's largest national provider network. only from unitedhealthcare. my frequent heartburn had me taking antacid after antacid all day long but with prilosec otc just one pill a day

blocks heartburn for a full 24 hours. for one and done heartburn relief, prilosec otc. one pill a day, 24 hours, zero heartburn. the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com ♪ ♪ (we ♪ ♪ it)

♪ ♪

donald trump may be primed for a win in iowa tonight, but the question of his eligibility on the ballot is still pending. right now there are lawsuits in more than a dozen states brought by challengers who claim former president trump is ineligible to serve as president under the 14th amendment. joining us now is former u.s. attorney of michigan and msnbc legal analyst barbara mcquaid. we know about colorado, that successful suit challenger brought that is now in front of the supreme court. what are the other states doing? >> we just most recently saw in oregon where the supreme cou there said we're going to deny this request for now but without

prejudice meaning that you can bring it again. because the supreme court is about to decide this issue, so let's hold on and see what happens there. as you know, california has rejected challenges. maine has said donald trump is in-eligible. michigan and minnesota, they declined to answer. so kind of a mess. everybody waiting for the supreme court to really decide whether donald trump is eligible to serve as president again. >> so in trying to figure out what the supreme court will decide, i wonder what they will consider beyond the text of the constitution which amendment three of article 14 says if you participate in an insurrectionist, you can't be president. it is written broadly. i know it is a statute that was added after the civil war. but it doesn't say any confederate soldiers, it doesn't say if you participated in the civil war specifically. it is very broadly written.

so if you are predicting what the justices of the supreme court might consider, how do they read that? >> yeah, so they are text all u.s.s. they look to the text. it talks about engaging in insurrection by an officer of the united states. it would seem donald trump fits those qualifications. but there are a lot of procedural ways that the court could take an off-ramp here is the phrase people are using, avoid addressing the question head-on. and one is the political questions doctrine. we have seen the court use this doctrine when it wants to avoid questions it deems too political that this belongs in other branches of government. for example when it comes to gerrymandering to give one party an advantage over another, the courts have held that is nonyou additionable, that that is a matter for legislatures to work out. so one thing they could do is say this is not for the courts, this is for congress to decide whether donald trump can be seated. what is crazy about that, he

could be elected president and congress could say in january of 2025 you are not eligible, you can't take your seat. so -- >> hold on. let me push back. because also written in the wording of that amendment is that the only remedy for this, to disqualify somebody, is would be for congress to overrule it. so doesn't that imply this is not an issue that is up to congress? the remedy is up to congress, but the issue of whether they could be on the ballot or not is not a congressional issue if you read the wording in the constitution. >> yes, and that is the argument certainly being advocated that this is self-executing. some say this provision can't be implemented until congress passes some sort of enabling legislation. but that language flies in the face of that, it suggests that the default is in-eligibility

and that is the reason that they have got this ability to erase it and change the default. >> i don't know how they will read it, but i imagine you'd have to go pretty close to the words. barbara mcquaid, thank you so much. and that does it for me today. stay right here with msnbc to catch special coverage of the iowa caucus. rachel maddow leads analysis with steve kornacki breaking down the results. it is a big election night so of course he is there. i'll join the coverage from right here in manchester, new hampshire. that is tonight beginning at 7:00 p.m. and special election coverage with jen psaki starts right now. welcome to msnbc's special coverage of the iowa caucuses. i'm jen