it is midnight here in new (♪♪) (♪♪) the new festive family meal. starting at $24. now celebrating at el pollo loco. york, 11 pm in iowa, where tonight, caucus goers braved record temperatures, gathered in gyms and schools across the

state, and gave us the first tangible look at where republican voters stand right now. and tonight, iowa republicans delivered a resounding victory to donald trump, nothing hugely surprising there. but we're gonna still talk about what that means. with me here at the table, all-star panel, former obama campaign manager, msnbc political analyst, and as i always like to say, my old boss, david plouffe. and the host of the weekend on msnbc, michael steele, simone sanders townsend, and alicia menendez. everybody is working very hard over the last couple of days. nbc news can project that donald trump will exceed 50% tonight. we can also project that florida governor desantis will finish second, which is a bit surprising coming into tonight. we will bring you any updated numbers as soon as we get them, and we will stay closer to the decision desk, and of course, the one and only, steve kornacki. the field has also one candidate smaller tonight, vivek ramaswamy announced he was dropping out of the race and endorsing donald trump. and for trump, he's on track to be the largest margin of

victory by republican iowa caucus history, by a lot actually. the largest margin of victory for a candidate, as a reminder, currently facing 91 charges across four criminal cases. and when it comes to those many charges across those many cases, most iowa caucus goers do not seem at all concerned. according to nbc news entrance polls, about two thirds of them, two thirds, say that even if trump is convicted, he is still fit to be president. and, of course, those who do believe that overwhelmingly voted for him tonight, and we saw that in the numbers as well. and in case you are wondering, we also learned tonight from those very same entry polls that the big lie is very much alive and well among iowa's republican caucus goers. about two thirds of them still say that president joe biden did not legitimately when the 2020 election. of course, he definitely did. now, with an iowa win under trump's, beltway charlie, it will be time to head straight to new hampshire. that's usually what candidates

do. they usually get on planes. they wake up. they go to pit stops. they go to diners doing what they do. but not for trump. instead, he will make a pit stop, a different kind of one, in a new york city courtroom for the start of a trial tomorrow that will determine how much he has to pay writer e. jean carroll for defaming her after she accused him of sexual abuse. again, that is a guy who's hovering a little over 50% of the vote in the state of iowa right now. it's worth just repeating that. we have so much to talk about but first, let's get right to steam kornacki at the big board. steve, takes take us inside the numbers. there's some surprises tonight, i would say. >> actually, one breaking surprise, and we will start with that, it's a blowout win for trump, as you can see, and desantis edging haley for second place. it looked until about 15 minutes ago that trump was gonna go 99 from 99 and win every single county in iowa. and then, final batch of votes came in, where in johnson county, this is where the university of iowa is in, just

check this out, we think, not entirely sure, but we think this is all the votes in johnson county now. look at this, nikki haley in the end, winning by one vote over donald trump. so, the difference of one vote in johnson county may, it seems well, prevent donald trump from having a 99 county sweep, literally a difference of one vote, and interesting nugget at the end of the night. johnson county, of course, actually has the highest concentration of college degrees of any county in iowa, no surprises, where the university of iowa is. but when we talk about sort of that being the backbone of haley's coalition that she built in iowa, college degrees, higher incomes, suburban, urban, metropolitan dwellers. you know, this is a county tailor-made to her. it does look like she's gonna be, it's gonna be the only county she wins, the only county where a non-trump candidate once. nikki haley is competitive, but frankly disappointing for her campaign here in dallas county, big suburban county outside des moines.

i think the haley campaign thought it could can get close, or maybe even beat trump there. this is polk county, the biggest county in the state, where des moines is. haley is finishing, i think, a surprise, still fewer votes here. but she may end up finishing third place here. also a disappointment for her. but these are the areas where she ran the best. and i start with her because in the next context in new hampshire, gonna get trump around there, it's gonna be nikki haley. that's what all the polls show, certainly, demographically the group she did best within iowa tonight, independent voters. our exit polls, she almost got trump with them, independent voters made up 16% of this electorate in new hampshire tonight, in iowa tonight, in new hampshire next week, they could make up 45% or so of the electorate. so, that is what could give nikki haley a chance next week, if you just look at the independents here. there is like three times as many of them in the new hampshire electorate next week. and all the polling in new hampshire shows her leading with independents so far. for donald trump, it's a story

of counties. he won in 2016. his margins, absolutely exploded. and i think it's a notable thing for trump, counties that are the most evangelical and churchgoing in the state were the most resistant, some of the most resistant to him back in 2016, including sioux county this was trump's worst county in iowa in 2016, he got 11% of the vote here. look at that, he wins it by double digits tonight, from 11, to 45%, he jumped 34 points in this county. this county, and so many others, you know, there are 42 counties in iowa. it went from mike huckabee, who won the evangelical vote in 2000, and it went from nick santorum who won the evangelical vote in 2012, one of the state, and it went for dead cruz in 2016 over. trump cruz won the evangelical vote, won the state. 42 counties fit that criteria. trump swept all 42 of those counties. that won't he has with evangelical voters, it has really form after the 2016 i will caucuses. you really see what it's turned into eight years later in these results. and as you mentioned, this is

two records, the previous best margin of the republican caucus was 12 points, 1988, bob dole, that walmarts. and the 51% that is fully ten points higher than the previous higher voter on the republican side and i, what it was george w. bush back in 2000. busch of course did go on to win the nomination. >> if anybody thinks the road doesn't count, johnson county, i want to have a word with you. steve kornacki, one question i have before i let you go, i mean, ron desantis, he's been losing in the polls over the last couple of polls by the des moines register. he's been losing steam, i should say. where in the state did he do better than expected, that really stood out to you? >> i don't know if it was doing better than expected, or if it was nikki haley doing more. i can see another couple of examples here -- i'll show you, let's just go back to dallas county. haley was supposed to be beating him by a bigger margin here. this is an under-performance by nikki haley in this county. might be an over performance

for desantis. this is a place where haley was supposed to do better. and there's a lot of votes. that's not mean that it may look like a lot of votes, but that's a lot of votes in these caucuses. that's not a good showing for nikki haley right there. we mentioned polk county, it's a really bad score for haley, finishing behind, she used to be in second place here, ideally, her campaign would have wanted to win that, maybe even having a fantastic night, having a win in polk county. like underperformance for her here in these suburban areas. and the problem was, the bottom just fell out for her in rural areas. there is more than 20 counties in the state where she finished in single digits tonight. there are only four counties where ron desantis is gonna finish in single digits. >> really did not show the expansion of a coalition for nikki haley tonight in iowa. steve kornacki, i know these are long nights for you, thank you, again, for sticking up with all of us. i want to bring in nbc news correspondent dasha burns, who was at governor ron desantis's headquarters in west des moines, iowa. dasha, tell us what's happening on the ground right now and how does the team feel?

>> reporter: well, look, as the party is winding down here, no doubt, the entire team is breathing a sigh of relief. he did edge out nikki haley for second place. and this was do or die for that desantis campaign. they poured so many resources, so much energy into the state. look, if you had created rubric for how to run a campaign in iowa, they really checked all the boxes. i was in the state back in june when they were trading door knocker's, knocking on nearly 1 million doors here, they got all the right endorsements. governor kim reynolds, evangelical leader, he spent four times here than any other candidate, and you said vivek ramaswamy, of course, who dropped out tonight. but the end of the day, that was kind of the big factor here. if he did all of that, and he did not come in second place, that was gonna be a huge problem for him. the fact that he made it to second place, is that tonight, you punch my card. i can now come out of iowa and go on with a campaign here.

but he's not having to go to new hampshire to more. is actually heading to south carolina to stop on nikki haley's home turf. the two of them are gonna be going at it. here's the thing, iowa sets the narrative, right? that's why the state is so important. and the narrative that we got tonight is donald trump is absolutely dominant, and the non-trump vote is still very much split. it's not, like, desantis came out of this with a resounding second place win. it is very close, as far as we see it right now. i know we don't have the final margins yet, but it's very close. nikki haley it's going to dominate in new hampshire. but then, she's gonna struggle in south carolina. as we look at that map going forward, with a non-trump vote, it's gonna be really tough for anyone to catch the former president. but his rivals do live to fight another day. >> ron desantis, living to fight another day. there we go, and we see that robert, thank you so much for joining us, early a&m. i want to bring out and d.c. correspondent vaughn hillyard who is in des moines tonight,

donald trump's iowa headquarters. what are you hearing there from the trump team? >> reporter: donald trump is not in new hampshire. this was the dominant wind that he was looking for. frankly, one notable figure that was up on that spade stage, perhaps not very notable too much of the country, but the north dakota governor, doug burgum, he's the one republican presidential candidate who took on donald trump, who appeared on the debate stage with him, dropped out, and then, just this weekend, endorsed him. donald trump, welcome to the state. we did not see tim scott, mike pence up there. it was doug bergen, so far, as the one who started the coalescing around trump. and frankly, it is notable because we have lived through this before. eight years ago, i was here in the state of iowa. and it was ron desantis, or i should say, ted cruz who was making many of the same arguments that we've been hearing ron desantis over the last couple of days that donald trump is going to get careened in a general election, that fox news is not being fair.

these are the types of arguments that we heard from ted cruz eight years ago. and yet, what did we see already? we see marco rubio this weekend, just eight years after he was endorsed by nikki haley, not return the favor here in 2024, but instead endorsed donald trump here. and that is where it was back, on the day of that miami nbc debate, and i ask a campaign senior adviser, what is your message to republicans have not gotten on board with trump here on this point in the middle of his retribution? and a senior adviser told me, tiktok. right now, what we are finding, went like this tonight is just how long the rest of this republican party will wait to coalesce not around an anti trump candidate like haley or on desantis, but coalesce around trump who could very well be on his way to this nomination. >> you can hear that and the beginning part of his speech tonight, he went a little off the rails later. vaughn hillyard, thank you so much for joining us. you've been working hard there in the freezing cold temperatures. thanks for being with us

tonight. i'm gonna go to my panel. i want to get your thoughts. a lot to dig into. i want to start, we've heard from a lot of these candidates tonight since we've seen the result. i just mentioned trump, he started out sort of full restraint trump, i call it, about everybody coalescing, coming together. what did you make of his comments tonight, or his speech? tonig ht, or>> it was typical trump iy respects. but i think trump also recognizes a window in which he can put a lot more pressure on nikki haley going to new hampshire then she may realize because the idea among the rank and file of the party is, okay, everybody needs to get on board behind trump. vivek comes out, gets out, endorses. trump burgum endorses trump. >> berger, is really having a moment -- >> he is having a moment. but you have others inside the

party itself, officials inside the party making that move towards trump. so, it's gonna put a lot of pressure on new hampshire. new hampshire has always been certainly republican primary circles that outlier state because democrats and independents get to play and have a say in who the nominee is. in any other election cycle, that's good for john mccain, that is good for, you know, a george bush. in this election cycle, it doesn't play the same way. if you are not on board going to new hampshire, you are not going to be the person that's going to pull that party away from trump on to you when you get to south carolina, your home state, and elsewhere. so, it creates, i think, an interesting pressure point for nikki in how she plays to that democrat independent base that she's gonna need to push her numbers up to overtake trump. and at the same time, not lose

that trump base. >> i mean, new hampshire, it's such a different electorate from iowa, different than a lot of the other states. we also saw nikki haley speak. it gave us a bit of a sense of how she's gonna maybe play the next couple of days. what did you make of her remarks? >> i think she wants to fight. she made a compelling case, at least, to the new hampshire voter. and also against trump, both on character grounds and electability grounds. it is going after both trump and biden, but making that generational case. i think the question is if she can't win in new hampshire, tuesday, january 23rd, republican primary, it's over. general election -- if i were trump, i would declare it over. i will not go to any of the primary states. and i will start the general election immediately. if nikki haley wins, then you probably go through march. her challenge is to figure out, and i think it's that steep challenge, how can you deep in some of those traditional republican voters.

and maybe that takes really bad polls, where she beats biden by ten. and i don't think that's enough. but i think that's what we are down to, and i think desantis had a shot. he didn't take advantage of it. we heard all the money all the time. he's not gonna have that anywhere else. i'm sure he will and -- >> if he got in third, it would have been harder. >> but there is no way to go. i grew up in campaigns, you gotta win. if you can't win, and it's a blue state that this guy can win. but hailie, i was impressed that she made a case. it was probably the stronger case -- and i agree with you, trump is gonna be wiped out there. this is a brutal week in american politics. and we will see how she can handle the spotlight. but if she is able to win, her bat

>> republican voters may still like his policies, but you have to get them something to vote for. and what nikki haley said, you can turn on the television and see something better right now. i think that she has to turn the page from being a pundit and get a bit more inspirational. and the debate will go for the opportunity to do that. it's gonna be the biggest stage -- >> this is her and desantis.

>> if he is still standing there. i do think he would be standing there because there is no, i mean, had he come in the third, i think i would be on desantis drop out watch. he came in second and it's an opportunity -- and i think at the end of the day, you won a primary by delegates. and donald trump is the one that came out of iowa with the most delegates. there are delegates in new hampshire. there are some delegates and nevada. haley will not be able to gather any of those delegates because she's not participating around the caucus. she's only participating in the primary, although there will be no delegates there. she is not poised to win her home state. there has not been a republican nominee and only two presidents in our modern day history have lost their home state and gone on to win the presidency, five total. the math is not -- >> it's certainly a hard speech if you lose your state. one of the things that's challenging, alicia, with haley, how she runs against trump. first of all, he's already tried to birther her. and he's gonna come after her with already, all the things

he's got. let us play if we have this her and her caucus mates where she talks about trump. she's made the same argument again and again about how she supported him in the past. and then we will talk about. do we have it? okay, so, we will get it up -- >> what it underscores to me is that just how unusual this moment is. i think sometimes, you hear the campaign election music swell, and you see the head shots pop up, and you see steve kornacki at the big board. and it's really easy to forget what it is that you're talking about here. we are talking about the fact that republicans are prepared to put forward as their nominee, four times indicted, twice impeached former president who has no real winning record, right? he has lost the popular vote twice. he lost the electoral college won. he lost the iowa caucuses, despite the fact that tonight on stage, he tried to claim having one. he endorses -- >> ted cruz's argument years

ago. >> basically, to me, the biggest tell is, we always say why, how, how is it possible? why would all of these folks be coming out in sub-zero temperatures to support someone whether or not certain can win in a general election. and the fact that you had in these entrance polls, two thirds of these caucus goers say that they do not believe that joe biden and the current president of the united states is a legitimately elected president, it helps explain why they don't think donald trump is a loser because they have bought his lie that he did not lose. >> hold your thought because i know -- >> actually, to be clear, i was trying to be ironic -- >> i love it. don't back up -- >> i'm gonna back up and say -- >> okay. well, you do have a good point. we do have to sneak in a break. clearly, michael steele is jumping. he is ready to say something. we'll be right back, stay with us. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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so, donald trump has one of the iowa caucus is tonight. ron desantis, he got a second place finish tonight over nikki haley, giving him a rationale for staying in this race. and yet, nikki haley said tonight that iowa turned this into a two person race. >> tonight, iowa made this

republican primary a two person race. [applause] tonight, tonight, i will be back in the great state of new hampshire. and the question before americans is now very clear. do you want more of the same? >> no! [crowd chanting] >> or do you want a new generation of conservative leadership? [applause] [applause] we are back with our panel. okay, people in the room, they would be liked her speech. i'm not sure how she squares that two person race argument. i, mean ron desantis, we may all agree, he doesn't have a path forward. but he did beat her. >> he beat her in new hampshire, so it's still a three person race.

matt is. matt >> is asa hutchinson still in the race as well. >> so, it's a four person race. >> to simone's point about the speech writer who did not do last-minute edits. that was a speech that was written as though intended to be given -- >> or she is hoping people are not really following the steve kornacki big board and she just wants to tell people how she did, and look, i have all of the momentum going to new hampshire. >> i think the fact that remains, and this is trump's stance, he paid for the orchestra. he paid for the balloons and the confetti. he paid for the dance hall. i mean, it's his dance. so, you can come in and you think you can, you know, whirl around the room and take out this. is that how's gonna work? >> i don't know. he likely did not poke pick any of them -- >> i agree with the point. >> please, let me finish the point really quick. the point, i understand a lot

of, there's a lot of momentum and energy that want to push nikki over the line in new hampshire, regardless of whatever happened in iowa at the end of the day. i just don't see those numbers, and i don't see that energy in that base for that. and independent and democratic voters are not gonna be enough in a republican primary to overcome trump in another primary with a different republican. i just think they are changing that trump turnout machine. >> i mean, look, to be clear, she did not have a good night tonight. she had a poll that showed her for the first time in second place just a few days ago. it's not that our numbers are so off from their. obviously, you need to make a bet about that in the electorate. but desantis beat her. he was pretending he was barely in the race as of couple of days ago. >> i have no problem when she said. in reality, it's a two person race. she did not meet the expectations the last couple of weeks, right? but she just needed to do what

she did because desantis has nothing after this. he put all of his chips in to iowa. it's what we did in 2008. it's what candidates have done historically. and if you put all your chips there, to when and you don't, you are out. and when desantis just have any realistic, but it might not have been polite for her to say that, but that's the reality, and the entire world is gonna be focused on new hampshire in the next eight days. it's gonna be a trump haley discussion. desantis won't even be part of. it the only way that it's, that desantis is in the picture, would be, let's say haley loses by ten or 15 next week, i don't think she would. but she decides, i'm out. and then ron desantis is left standing to love 70 30, if not 80 20. so, it is a two person race in that. by the way, she is got like a 2% chance. but those are the only two people i think you can credibly say have a chance. and for her, like, it's gotta be an amazing black swan event,

starting with a win next week. >> a black swan event. i love that -- >> that's what trump had in 2016. they happen in politics, but very rarely. his numbers are so strong. and if you look at illinois, california, and maryland, trump is a dominant, dominant front-runner even if haley wins. >> california matters. that's their biggest get four delegates on super tuesday. they made a point during the break that i think that people should hear. and the question is we are due chris christie's voters go? and if you look back at the speech that the former governor of new jersey gave when he suspended his campaign, he very clearly, bolded and underlined, endorsing and it was former opponents in this race. he noted that anyone who is unwilling to say that donald trump is unfit to be president is unfit to be president themselves. all of the people left in this race have been unwilling to say that, and by chris christie's own standard, he was telling his voters that none of these people deserve your votes.

i think he was making general election argument. but he was speaking to those people that were with them, with him in that room. yes, there were some democrats in that room. there were a lot of independents and republicans in that room, and it was full. i just do not think that nikki haley is up to the task because if you want to win, you have to compete. and this, honey, has not been a competition. to that point we do have the sound of haley talking about trump, and how she formally worked for him. this is such a tricky little word cell that she has going on but let's -- >> i have spoken so much to america, here is another truth. i voted for donald trump twice, i was proud to serve in his administration. but when i see more of the same, you know what i am talking about, it is both donald trump and joe biden. trump and biden both lack a

vision for our country's future, because both are consumed by the past. by investigations, by vendettas, by grievances, america deserves better. [applause] we >> reporter: so i do think one she's a good speaker she's a good speaker that contrast in terms of next generation is very good and effective i think what feels tricky to me is a becomes a two person race. she says she worked for him, i voted for him twice, he was the right president than, but not the right president now. it feels a little -- >> it's a type of world salad only very expensive polling him by -- the things that her consultants have told her. i think, that what she is trying to do if i can dissect. that is to create, what we often talk about which is a permission structure for trump voters to say not this time. >> i'm young i'm next-gen.

>> but not even just that i too saw the appeal we think a lot about these folks but who do not want to admit that they were duped and they don't know how to come back from that and focus that maybe they still like him but they are not sure if he can still be elected. she says i am one of you, i too voted for him, i'm ready to make -- a are you ready to? i think what we saw in iowa tonight is not necessarily for republican voters, who are ruling in a primary to make that -- >> she saw what you just said because that is better. >> that is better. >> they are not available for a speech writer. it's a new show, otherwise you're giving free advice on msnbc. -- thank you for staying up with us tonight, you aren't going anywhere you've got a good start tonight. we have so much more to get to,

as well as the race in new hampshire we will be back after a very quick break. wea very quick break weion right through my glass. so when my windshield cracked, i chose safelite. they replaced the glass and recalibrated my safety system. that's service i can trust. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪ [coughing] copd hasn't been pretty. it's tough to breathe and tough to keep wondering if this is as good as it gets. but trelegy has shown me that there's still beauty and breath to be had. because with three medicines in one inhaler, trelegy keeps my airways open and prevents future flare-ups. and with one dose a day, trelegy improves lung function so i can breathe more freely all day and night. trelegy won't replace a rescue inhaler for sudden breathing problems. tell your doctor if you have a heart condition or high blood pressure before taking it.

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and republican candidates are on the move to their next destinations for nikki haley, it is straight to new hampshire she, better nail some sort of rally when she arrives.

donald trump is headed to new york tonight, obviously, where he'll be attending the start of a new civil trial brought to him by e. jean carroll. before attending a rally later in the evening. for ron desantis, it's south carolina he's bucking usual political tradition to attend a state that will not be holding its primary for another month. now, after donald trump's victory tonight, it'll be one blast view last best chances to build any sort of momentum, and challenge the heavy republican favorite. whether there is any reality to that is a big question, or any question? but the best place to do it, is haley. she's been endorsed by governor new new, and over the past we close the polling gap between her and donald trump. david plouffe, and michael steele are still here with me and joining the conversation, some fresh blood bush's 2016 campaign -- former communications director for barack obama, jennifer

palmieri, she is also the host of an msnbc podcast how to win 2024. okay, fresh blood here. tim miller i know you have some thoughts, some rounds, about what will happen in new hampshire. what does it look like for new here for nikki haley. does it have any impact? >> it was a profoundly depressing night, i would like to start with that donald trump attempted a coup three years ago and he is on a glide path to the biggest blow out, in any presidential contest, in any of our adult lives including jeremy steele. [laughter] that is what is happening right now. nikki haley, it feels like it is a show campaign going on, we have to go through the motions, i said to jan is like belarus like lukashenko puts up to other candidates to have on the ballot at this point. nikki lost by 32 points tonight. the biggest blow out before this in history, was 12 points.

what is going to happen in new hampshire? democrats are going to savor? >> she won in johnson county, one county, by one vote, which is like the brooklyn or boulder of iowa. to name what it is [laughter] it's where iowa city, is the university of iowa, she did not make up any ground among any coalition that is beyond democrats, never trumpers, independents. >> white suburban republican -- >> in fact lost ground. >> because jeremy steele predicted that she would come in third and she would not -- but we were talking about this. she is like a television character presidential candidate, but does not actually go for the gusto. i don't feel -- if she really had the fire in her she would be going directly act trump not have a metaphor of trump and biden are the

same. still, she may win in new hampshire because new hampshire really does not like trump. if you look at the general election polling, biden is doing really well there, a lot of anti trump messaging. they really don't like him. democrats and independents maybe chic they can save her in new hampshire, for their own status they have to prove they are relevant. so, maybe they want to do. it michael is right, i have been to trump rallies in new hampshire. there are a lot of bodies that show up. it is possible that it is not really reflected in the polling. but, i think, new hampshire is going to want this to be a fight, they will want to do something different than iowa. >> that's what they always do is not right david blough? >> historically, yes she is holding a weak hand no question about that, but she is the only one with cards at the table other than trump. so -- >> does she have cards after new hampshire? though >> no, if she doesn't

wear next week it's over though donald trump is the nominee. >> even if she wins new hampshire? >> even then, it is perilous territory because there is no state like new hampshire the rest of the way. i think that is probably the highlight. then she gets drilled in her home state, and then loses down on super tuesday, but at least she lives to fight another day. let's see how heat trump deals with the loss he will not deal with it well. let's deal with the math. for her to win new hampshire, maybe you still get -- 60% of the other candidates, desantis still gets on. could she get 40 to 46% of the vote? maybe. but she can't get 50. this week matters to, it's an hour to hour thing in new hampshire, having been through it before. it is also how she performs, the spotlight has always been her friend. trump will land mines for her no question about that. it's a gift if she wins new hampshire, and get clobbered everywhere else.

if she does not win new hampshire, if i were donald trump next week he's clearly eager for the primary to be over, and it will be over. if i were him i would not go to another primary state, just say i'm running against biden, i'll be in wisconsin, arizona the day after that, and it is on, whatever desantis and haley do. they'll be special figures running around the country no i cares. >> you have a special energy tonight. it is flying around of pennsylvania. >> it was like the fox news of town hall last week, energy maybe it was strategic. >> maybe i don't. now >> maybe he is just getting tired. >> each has caught up with him. the reality though, to david's point what is the point? this is a presidential -- >> you are now at the -- nikki haley when a new hampshire. i think donald trump gets 50% of the vote in new hampshire, and i think people need to be realistic about whose party this is.

you people want to run a race that does not exist. you just need to stop it, and recognize the facts. what do i know, i was a county chairman, a state chairman, international chairman, i think i know how the party works internally. >> and the party is changed a lot since then. >> it has changed a lot, i watched it change on my watch. i have been a part of it i've been in that room, i know these folks, i know them well. they are committed, and they are committed to the guy who is right now sitting here, with over 50% coming out of iowa, going into new hampshire. how much steam do you think he loses, when he gets to new hampshire? how much steam do you think he loses when he gets to south carolina and nevada? >> and if he thinks he is losing he will -- more so i think we should all prepare ourselves more. >> we should be realistic about what we are talking about here, i get everybody wants to put this in the traditional presidential race box, and this

has not been a traditional presidential race since 2016, and we need to stop looking at it that way. we need to understand that the guy who represents the existential threat to this country, to your point is about to become the nominee of my party. that concerns me, and i don't see nikki haley, i don't see anybody else stopping that from happening. >> we are going to dig into all the -- whole joe thought we are going to come back after the break. everybody is sticking around, we're going to keep digging through the numbers including the anti reports, which to display a lot of what you are talking about, so everyone stay with us till we come back. ll we come back. ♪3, 4♪ ♪ ♪hey♪ ♪ ♪are you ready for me♪ ♪are you ready♪ ♪are you ready♪

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tonight was thanks in large part to key demographic parts that make up the maga base, including white evangelical quest christians who did not exactly love them back in 2016 but. they represent half of the total electorate. he won 53% of that group. likewise more than half of all caucus goers can serve themselves as very conservative, among them 61% voted for trump. it is not surprising that trump won by such a wide margin what is more surprising, trump also edged out his republican rivals

with those with the college degree, and identified as independents. as nikki haley emphasized her electability as a big selling point turned out in these exit polls, to be a low priority issue for caucus goers. 41% said a candidate that quote, shares their values, was the most important quality in deciding who they would support. while 14% said i candidates event ability to win a november mattered the most to them. these are important, pause are generally imperfect but some of the stuff is pretty interesting including statistics i mentioned earlier for entering poll numbers. about two thirds of caucus goers, do not think joe biden was the elected president, the duly elected president. two thirds of the time would be fine if trump was a convicted felon. those were the ones that stuck out to me as well. what have you learned, did we learn anything about demographics in iowa, anything surprise you with those numbers?

>> well the folks not believing biden's not legitimate i'm surprised it is that low, i thought it would be higher. who >> who is the other third? maybe there are other people. >> yeah, i'm surprised it wasn't easy. his support is deep, it is geographic, demographic, it's education, its income, its ideology, so new hampshire is the one place where that might get upset a little bit, just because of the nature of the electorate there. then you will have, specifically because there is no democratic -- as you go deeper into the calendar it just shows, he is almost unassailable. it is hard to see a weakness there. so, you would think that in most states trump's favor to do what he did in iowa tonight. >> one of the questions, first of all, what it means to be an evangelical is another question i have someone writes another big story about. evangelicals did not, trump did not change to shape himself to

them, they change to shape themselves to hit him. >> the path to beating trump back in 2016 in one of the most devout evangelicals, and the man you want on top of that are some of my people all the moderates, the urban suburban types. but, that has only gotten a lot worse since then. and the evangelicals, clearly, as we saw in iowa, when trump wins -- outside the deep south overwhelmingly, with no competition. so that coalition within the republican party is gone now. you cannot win a republican primary, with just the latter half, suburban republicans. even in that coalition trump whence. look at the data he's when in college educated, but even if we don't trans the entrance falls, you can trust the raw data. he won des moines, he whined dallas county which is the suburbs of des moines, where democrats have done better recently. where there recently >> was a

shooting by the way, and trump said let's move forward. people support him there. >> the fundamental truth, this whole primary, is that republicans are not looking for an alternative to donald trump. they, in other -- it's very unusual for someone in office to run again, he is basically an incumbent running. it has always been the case, since ron desantis had that window early on in 22, it's been the case that trump has had the majority of the party, and you cannot win without his supporters. no one has been able to articulate a reason to have people come their way without losing. >> they didn't really try. >> the art, this is not like a stellar group of like -- wow what a really great -- >> not just super strong set of candidates, it's very cultural

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york, midnight in iowa, and a very first test of the 2024 republican primary season is now complete. joining me now at the top of this hour, former obama campaign manager, msnbc political analyst, and my former boss david plouffe, former rnc chairman and co-host of the weekend, michael steele, former communications director for jeb bush 2016 campaign, and now writer at large for the bulwark tim miller, and former communications director for president obama jennifer palmieri. now, tonight in iowa, nbc news projected that donald trump won the caucuses with more than 50% of the vote. his numbers really cement the four-time indicted candidate status as the front-runner. we already knew this. but in the republican field, the race for second place, it had a bit more drama with nikki haley and florida governor ron desantis locked in a dead heat for most of the night. but as awkward as he may be at times, and he is awkward, desantis did put in the work in iowa, and maybe that helped

him. he visited all 99 counties, and it paid off a bit with a second place finish in the state. even if he doesn't have a real path forward, it seems. third place finisher nikki haley is now off to new hampshire, where traditionally, presidential candidates go right after the iowa caucuses. but not donald trump. he would once again buck tradition and head to a courtroom in new york city for the start of the e. jean carroll defamation trial. and that civil case is of course on top of the for criminal trials that trump is also facing, where he also seems to appear in the courtrooms, involving classified information, and attempts to overturn the last election. but trump's legal woes certainly did not hold him back tonight. as we were just talking about, two thirds of iowa caucus goers, even if he's convicted, they say they still consider trump to be president. this place is the republican electorate, it seems pretty clear with their first choices. criminal charges and. all back with me, my all-star panel here.

so, we talked a lot about trump, we talked a lot about the republican candidates. let's talk a little bit about the other guy running, president joe biden. so, plouffe, you talk to the campaign a lot. if they're watching what happens tonight, what do they think, do they think about it? >> well, one thing that's important when you are an incumbent, when does the general election start. this will suggest it's gonna stop a lot sooner than you probably like. >> is that good for them? >> i would argue maybe it is just because the sooner this turns into a searing contrast, the better off for biden. even if he has a couple more months to prepare, i think being in that box with him alone is probably helpful. and i think what it shows is, you know, the republican party is, my guess is the biggest concern i have, as i think about next november, is the turnout differential that could be there. you know, there's not the enthusiasm for biden that you like. maybe you can wrongly on that. i think trump is gonna get his turn up. there is clearly some

disaffected republicans that maybe biden could do as well as he did in 20, that was important. but i think trump is gonna get his turn out. i argue, if he gets convicted even more so, i think these numbers show, whatever you think it's gonna take to win a state like wisconsin, or arizona, from the biden campaign, i add 10% to it. it's basically attacks, the trump turnout is gonna be that. but that's the big thing is, starting next tuesday, if haley doesn't win new hampshire, trump's speech is gonna be, i'm done with the primary. i dispatch with all of these losers. and it's time for the rematch. and it's gonna be right on your doorstep, whether you like it or not. >> the biden campaign is fundraising off of trump's front-runner status tonight. they don't really utter the names nikki haley or ron desantis because none of them think that they're running against them. they do have these it was scientologist, what you've talked about on the republican side too, where there is this belief from a fair number of undecided voters that it's not gonna be trump biden, right?

that it won't be trump on the other side which to david plouffe's's point, it's clear that it's trump to everyone, and they are helped by that. but what do you think they should be doing to make that more clear? >> the biden people? >> yeah. >> i agree with everything david said. i think if i'm advising the president's campaign right now, i would look at them and say, can you put a boy on the street? can you just have him walk some neighborhoods and go sit on, you know -- >> as in president biden? our boy? >> just to be clear -- >> i am like, who is the boy! >> but you see, that is my point. you have to bring it to that level so that people understand he is my boy. they have to commit, connect with this guy, and he is connectable. and democrats overthink the proposition here. this is not a complicated scenario against donald trump. it is a very complicated

scenario against nikki haley. and so, you need to understand the runway you are being given. so, let donald trump try to shorten that runway by coming out of new hampshire and say, okay, let's do it. i'm ready. i am ready too. when do you want to meet so we can talk about your 91 indictments, so i can talk about your e. jean carroll problem, so i can talk about the money you had to pay out? are your donors still paying your legal bills? i mean, this is the level that the campaign has to be prepared to go. and if you don't really want to see your boy get into that space, meaning the president, okay, that the political operation around him has to go there. and they haven't yet. and that, to me, is stunning. >> i do think that, your boy, president joe biden -- you know, going into communities, it's actually to your point what a superpower is, right? i mean, he loves -- he's kind

of more extroverted than almost anyone i've met. it's downright exhausting, actually. but he loves that glad-handing and all that stuff. it's often blamed on the communication strategy, which we all know is, like, it's never the totality of this -- [inaudible] i know, it's like, i'm feeling i'm getting shakes. i used to have mugs -- because oftentimes, not our problem. but talk to me, both of you, a little bit about we know who the biden superpowers are. he's empathetic. he connects with people. he loves glad-handing. he did give to speeches. that's not his superpower. it's not what people are voting for. what should he be doing? >> i think, i know the biden campaign, it's gonna be the earliest general election we've ever had. and they prepared for that. it started on january 5th with that speech that he gave in valley forge. you know, they are making a ton of hires. they have hires for the battleground. people when battlegrounds in

january, right? you are hoping to get people in may, june, july. they're actually on it. and last week, he did valley forge. he went to south carolina. the vice president has been to all the primary states. he went back to pennsylvania later in the week. he's gonna go to michigan. he's gonna go to nevada. he's making these speeches. they're doing the big contrast with trump, you know, on democracy, and freedoms, and all the things that are at stake. also, if you look at what he says, and also what they're doing online. and i know you saw this when you were in there, jen, that very targeted communication around accomplishments for african american voters, accomplishments for hispanic voters, the voters that they had in 20 that they have to win back. it's not like, oh, it's a switch -- there on it in terms of actually now implementing plans. i think that, and you know, because we have been causing trouble in the back all night and talking, why are they doing this, why are they doing that? and we are all on agreement

that we need to see what will they do -- and even though he is older, and, you know, he can miss speak, let us see that, let us be accustomed to it, and let us see what we love about the guy too. you know, and if you want to put out a pit dog on television, mitch landrieu was going over to the campaign. and that guy, he is an amazing communicator. >> he is epic bulldog. yes, but is also a politicos political. he also loves to glad-hand. to palmieri's point, i get to spend some time with a campaign. and obviously, meeting people where they are, and over used terms. but they're very focused on that. a lot of what's happening, a bit behind the scenes, it's hard to break through the blocking out of the son of donald trump and the crazy stuff he says and all of his legal issues. a lot of it, they're doing online, it's private, it's targeted. i mean, tim, you and i have talked often about, and it's so funny -- tim once more. but tim also always ask me, why

can't the democratic party just sing off the same song -- which is not a monolithic party like the republican party. >> give me that lyrics and the bigger letters for you. i do need more. i need more biden surrogates. we don't need to treat them like fine china. i don't want to see them out there. i want to go back to one other thing, david said, i think there might have been maybe some good news for biden, though, the numbers tonight. i agree that in general, trump will get his platform out. but this caucus turnout wasn't anything -- >> now, it was actually small. even after all of the iowans saying, we are fine, we're gonna put on socks. >> maybe it's a blowout, but it's something to keep our eye on. 167,000 last time, and 120 something right now. a big downward track from 2016. 32% if trump is convicted, unfit to be president. that's a big number. even if that's off, even if

it's 22%. and even if he's not convicted. that's a group of people will have campaigned to work from. they can speak to those people and they could persuade those people and that's a persuadable audience. the folks that went out there to vote for nikki haley today, it seems like most of them were pretty sick of donald trump. you know, getting almost to tim mueller or michael steele. i don't know if they are joe -- but they're pretty sick of donald trump. that's also encouraging, it's like, another big laps coming in the middle for the biden campaign. >> can i just add one more numbers to backup what tim said? one other important number buried in here for the biden campaign, which is good, of the republican caucus goers, 11%, 11% of them said, if it's a biden trump rematch with, they're going with biden. so, to really emphasize the point that tim made, there's a lot in this mix, and in a state

like iowa. and that is good for democrats to take out of iowa as they begin to put in place that advance on the election. >> and they're going against the election ban which -- >> there's a lot of material here and of course, in the actual battleground states, which sadly iowa is not anymore. we live in this -- world. biden campaign has a good sense of who those actual voters are. presidential campaigns can seem overwhelming. but it's actually quite simple. in this election, it's like seven states. that's all it is. it's not 50. and -- >> not iowa. >> and it is four to 5% of actual swing voters, that's it. a small number of americans. and it is a fairly small number of people that you are trying to get to turn out, who actually won't turn out. so, i think in these numbers, with this swing voters, i think there's a lot to be encouraged about. but i think for biden to win, you've got to make sure that you do both sides of it, that you reach your turnout goals,

and you may be right. my suspicion, it has all been wrong. the call to republicans to restore the wrongfully, you know, terminated leader is gonna be pretty strong. and iowa campaigns, it's always better, even if your data sets, they're gonna get ten votes in the precinct, you're gonna get 12. you have to raise your numbers. but i do think with swing voters and -- the 11% of them haven't seen that. you said these are hard-core, mostly evangelical iowa caucus attendees saying that, not general republicans. that suggests that maybe there's up to 50%, 80%. he won't get them all. boy, if biden could end up getting 68%, you know, that's how we can win again -- >> it's a game-changer. >> this is all very interesting. and it gives us a little hope. we need a little hope moment out of tonight. we have so much more to get to this hour, including a live late night report from manchester, new hampshire, where the political circus is

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the primary has a chance to actually be competitive. and if she does win, which michael steele is not too hot on, but we're still gonna talk about, it it could at least make for an exhausting few weeks before south carolina. joining me now from manchester, new hampshire, msnbc correspondent shaq brewster. we know donald trump is planning to head there after the first day of his defamation trial tomorrow night. nikki haley is on her way. ron desantis is headed to south carolina first. tell us what you are hearing. is nikki haley gonna have an event when she lands? what are you hearing about her plans for tomorrow? >> reporter: yes, she will have an event later in the afternoon, and you will see events from all of the major candidates here in new hampshire. look, voters are ready for that tension to shift towards them. i tell you, i talked to a lot of voters throughout the course of the day. they are ready to go to these town halls. they are ready to engage with these candidates. one of these candidates arrive in new hampshire, they are arriving in a state that's gonna have a different process, and a different electorate. all that excitement that we thought out of iowa with a correspondents walking through

auditoriums and gymnasiums, and hearing the candidate speeches and the open counting, that all goes away when you get to new hampshire. this is a structure primary. it's more of what most people do when they go and vote. polls will open sometime around 6 am, as early as six a.m.. they close at seven pm. and it's more accessible to people. you go in, cash your ballot, and walk out. and those voters that are doing that, it's a different electorate, how much different group of voters than what we saw out of iowa. less conservative voters, fewer evangelical voters, many more moderate voters, especially in a state, when you break it down by party registration, they are more undeclared or independent voters in the state than there are democrats or republicans individually by those parties. so, what that means is it's more fertile ground for nikki haley. you are saying that in there polling that we have been seeing leading into, or i should say, over the past week or so. but i will tell you, talking to campaigns, talking to voters,

talking to allies of these candidates, the thing that they admit, folks here in new hampshire, they admit, it's sometimes a bit harder for them to admit this, but they admit that they have been watching iowa and the results in iowa matter. when you look at desantis, if you look at nikki haley, both of those campaigns who are looking for what they could describe as over performance to leave them with some momentum as they get into new hampshire. it's not clear that either of them got that. you will hear the campaigns argue that they have some momentum coming in. but there's no clear dominant second place performance for either of those two candidates. so, the consistency that you saw in iowa where the polling kind of match the results, the fear for some of the people here in new hampshire is that dominance that trump has in the polls right now is something that he will see extend to next week. >> is there anything we are waiting for? i mean, nikki haley has governor sununu's endorsement. are there any other big endorsements hanging out there, or any other big moments that

can happen between now and tuesday? >> reporter: i think throughout this entire campaign, yes there are endorsements that are there, there are endorsements not only about political leaders, but also some of those groups. those still exist. you know, she does have the governor's endorsement here. i think the biggest moment you can look for, it's what we've seen throughout this campaign. and it's the debate stage. we know that there is a debate scheduled on the march 4th thursday. that's a traditional debate here in new hampshire. nikki haley has not agreed to go to that debate as of yet. that is still up in the air. ron desantis has poked some fun at her for not making that agreement yet. and then, there's another debate later this week, or later this weekend, that's when both candidates have agreed to show up and appear at. so, if there is any moment that can shift the dynamics there, that would be it. and you know, the one thing, caution, when you look at the polls that i was just reading, those polls include the name

chris christie. and he was polling out about 12% consistently in a lot of the polls that we saw last week before he suspended his campaign. we don't know where the majority of his supporters will go. but i will tell you, i was at his campaign announcement where he suspended. and i talk to the folks in the room, his core supporters. many of them that night said, oh, i don't know who i can support. i feel lost now, one supporter told me. i've been checking in with them over the past couple of days or so. and the majority of those who i interacted with that day are now supporting nikki haley. so, that could be a boost for her. again, when you look at the iowa results, she did not get that second place finish that some people were hoping for, especially allies of her campaign. the question of momentum, and if it can fundamentally shift the dynamics here in new hampshire, to now beat donald trump, that is still an open question. and it looks to be an uphill battle, at least at this point. >> that will certainly be good news for nikki haley.

shaq brewster, as it gets cold as it is in iowa, it still looks pretty cold, even on the ground with voters throughout this campaign cycle. thank you so much for staying up late with us tonight and for bringing us some insights from the ground in new hampshire. i am back here with my panel. so, we were just kind of mapping this out and this sort of fantasy flip over and politics i guess, which is, like, if you were on nikki haley's campaign advising her, what would her first, what would the next week look like. i know part of the answer from you david plouffe, is that she would have a rally before tomorrow afternoon, and -- >> it may seem like a small thing that's not tactically, you know, she should do and event when she lands at four a.m., so that everyone who looks at their phone, watch is the morning shows, has talk radio, has footage and sound of haley saying, new hampshire, you know, you can basically turn the page on trump and

biden, and, like, it's malpractice not to do that even though you are -- but i think the rest of the week, i mean, there would be a lot of advertising on truth social. i think they should have actual new hampshire voters who voted for trump, and they won't do anymore. that would be a good thing to do. i think doing a lot of otr's, we know she's a good speaker -- >> which unusual is when you show up unannounced. >> i can't a coffee shops, diners, i think the debate are tough -- >> whether she should go or? not >> because i do think that and you are is the major station in new hampshire, so there could be a downside of stuffing, them looking like you're afraid. on the other, and desantis is relevant in new hampshire, is probably all downside for haley. it's a tough, one they're going to make it now on the plane. but i think that she needs to have a frantic pace. she has started to be a little bit more strong in her indictment of trump tonight, but she needs more of that.

i think other people making that. and be prepared for a trump's barbed because, again, he's not going to be gentle this week. >> he's even predicted he's not going to be gentle. he's told us that he's not going to be gentle. >> organizationally, it's less important in a primary than a caucus, but clearly, desantis he came in second place with 2000 votes in iowa. i'm the only one with a legitimate chance to beat trump in new hampshire. he put all the chips there -- don't worry about that. but, you look at the steve kornacki did a good job in des moines, she should've done better. , what the question is was the registrar pull off -- as that a candidate has he's been, his organization helped him get to 21% of the vote. so, haley's got to make sure, particularly, that the

democrats and independents actually come out. >> now, not giving too much credit, but she did say in the interviews that haley may have some problems, right? as we all know, polls test a moment in time and there is the momentum question. i did want to play something she said tonight because she continues to make this electability argument. the question is should she keep making it, but let's play it and we'll talk about it. >> republicans have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections. that is nothing to be proud of. we should want to earn the support of a majority of americans. all the evidence says that, if it is a trump biden rematch, it is going to be another toss-up election. it could go either way. we could have more disputes over election interference and

joe biden could win again. with kamala harris waiting in the wings. lord help us if that happens. >> there is a lot to unpack there. as we're all talking about how nikki haley is a sort of like the modern version, she just said disputes over election interference is, that's not on the level just to be clear. it's an insurrection, let's call it what it is. and then the kamala harris thing is such a way, i don't know if it is a dog whistle, it's more than a dog whistle. it's like, joe biden is old, he might die. that is what she is saying, and kamala harris is a black woman. that was what she is saying from that podium. that aside, the electability argument that didn't pop up in these entering polls, but it is a theme of what she has been saying. if she's next generation, let's turn the page from the last leadership. is that the best argument, --

>> no. it's not. look, the democratic and republican primaries have proven to us not once but twice that they want to old white men. again, the reality of it is in 2020 on those stages you had the next stage is running against donald trump and joe biden. so other abortion side they said, we aim to doing this. so they shut it down, side all focused on the democrats. the democrats had a swath of folks that they could have put out there over joe biden and they didn't. so, why are you complaining now about the guy that you picked four years ago? same narrative here for republicans in this race. you are sitting here and it is not select ability. you know so you've got sitting

in the wings waiting to take the crown, right? get what are the numbers showing us? 51% in iowa. so all of the stuff about age and electability is nonsense because the voters are telling you who they want. so let's up, giddyup, and get into the campaign around those two candidates. >> gear up, giddyup. okay, maybe that is part of her speech, i'm not sure. >> it's still going to the electability thing. >> okay, tim, let's just to say, because there is still a primary in new hampshire. you have worked for -- that's not what i was going to say, but you've said a number of republican candidates. what argument should nikki haley be making? >> in our little fancy that we are playing here, to get into a tie machine and tell you. >> you can do it time machine, there are no rules. >> i would have started to seven months ago trying to prosecute some kind of case for

why donald trump should not be the nominee. >> chris christie did that -- >> there was a path that was between the chris christie path and between the, oh, i think it's a deep state is coming after mr. trump pat and i don't have a substantive criticism of either of them, except that chaos that seems to follow. there was something in between that and chris christie. we are here and now, so you can't start up a new criticism against him now because it sounds like sour grapes. so all she has left is the electability argument, but the problem is she has made the electability argument. she's backed yourself into a corner. guess what? the republican voters, they think donald trump won in 2020. >> they also think that he's more electable now. >> they think he's still the president, okay? and controls the military. so you can't make a case of electability against people who think donald trump won twice. that's the problem, she's backed yourself against this corner. it might be the best card she

has to use -- in a vortex, about what her interest and need to do is go backwards and six months, use the millions upon millions that donors gave them, and actually prosecute a case against donald trump instead of against each other. >> desantis, who really, he is very late to the game here, but there seems, to over the past couple of weeks, almost been sort of attacking trump a little bit? i mean, he said over the weekend that if trump was the nominee biden would be leading in swing states. nobody cares because nobody thinks that he is -- >> desantis is making some good points. >> it's interesting, we have to sneak in a quick break. coming, up don from his on his way to new york where he will attend the start of another trial. this one about how much he will have to pay e. jean carroll for defaming her. george connally joins the conversation when we come back. we're back after a quick break. break great skin! -oh th- -thanks! i got old spice body wash to thank for that. he used to rely on me for skin care advice. now he's... -so moisturized! -but i...

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trump is expected to attend a trial that will decide how much he has to pay e. jean carroll for defaming her. trump has said he doesn't plan to attend and testify as well at this trial. remember, he has already been foable for defaming and sexually assaulting her. but after the first trial, he couldn't stop talking her. he recently posted about her 40 times in a single day on truth social, a stable thing to do. he didn't have to have the trial delayed saying he

couldn't attend on wednesday saying that it's the same day as the funeral for melania trump's mother, the request was denied after lawyers -- in new hampshire on the same day. it is very awkward. joining our conversation is conservative attorney, george conway who i'm assuming has some thoughts about all of this because he has been admitted into evidence in this case. let me first say,, though thank you for staying up with us. this is a real commitment to democracy here, being up with us at 1:30 in the morning. we really, really appreciate it. but let me start with that. you, georgia, tell us what it means to be admitted in evidence as you sort of announced on twitter. tell us a bit also about what your predictions are for how this will all play out? >> the story about my being admitted to evidence was the fact that i introduced, actually jean carroll walked up to me at a party in 2019 and ask me whether she thought she had a case, and i said yes, i think you do. i know the right lawyer for you

and i turned out that she did hire that lawyer and brought the case. for some reason trump's lawyers are the first trial were absolutely obsessed with this fact. they kept -- much to the noise of the judge, but jean's lawyers decided, well, we don't mind the fact that a former republican pointed us, our client to the lawyer who she hired. so, they put it in evidence themselves and then trump kept banging on it and tried to make something out of it. the judge would have out it. in the pretrial of denture rulings last week, for this week's trial, the judge said that you can talk about how -- you can talk about conley if you really want. so here i am, admitted into evidence. two out of two trials. >> there you are. congratulations on that note. so, what are we expecting tomorrow? what are you watching for tomorrow? >> obviously he is going to try to make this a circus, but the

fact of the matter is it is going to be very, very hard for him to do that because you've got a federal judge who is about 500 times smarter than him and very, very strict in what he allows to happen in his courtroom. another thing that is happening is, because he lost the first trial, he basically doesn't get to contest any of the key things that were issued in the first trial, which is the fact that he raped e. jean carroll and what he said about e. jean carroll was defamatory. this trial is only gonna be about damages because you can only fight an issue with a party once and then you are bound by that result. the only reason why there are two trials was the first trial, related to things that he said after he became president and the original assault, which was not part of the original lawsuit, the original lawsuit, which is the one that is going to travel this week, was a lawsuit for the false things that he said when he was president, when he denied the allegation that the jury has

found to be accurate. that she was raped by donald trump. and also that she had made a false statement, the denial of the incident and the killing of her a liar. so, the fact that he was president, i should point out, means that whatever damages for this defamation occurred, which would be greater than the damages for the defamation in the prior case. >> it is really not remarkable because nothing is surprising that he couldn't stop himself from attacking her. he posted 40 times on truth social. he is still planning to attend the trial and speak. well i have, you i did want to ask, of course there is the iowa caucus tonight which i'm sure you are fully tracking. and there were entry polls in that. one of those entry, polls 65% of caucus goers say that if trump were to be convicted of a true crime they would consider him fit to be president. do you think that reflective of the electorate? are people paying attention, or do they not know the details?

what's going on there? help us understand. >> i think it's reflects the republican electorate in iowa. i absolutely believe that. i think it reflects a significant part of the republican electorate because what has happened with these people, as they decided to force eight facts, they decide to forsake reality in favor of trying to bolster in their own minds this fantasy view of donald trump, as somehow a decent person, an intelligence person, a competent person, somehow immoral pursuant, and somehow a law-abiding person. none of which is true. the problem is that the evidence is against them, so they continue to turn it out. they say it is a big conspiracy against him. if they don't listen to the evidence and nothing that will happen in these legal proceedings will affect how those people vote. it will, however, i believe, affect the way americans who are sensible, who listen to facts and who might go either way, depending on normal

considerations. i just think those people are going to basically say that we cannot have this. >> i think we're seeing that in the polls, to. it's an important point to remember, about the totality of the electorate. george connally, thank you for staying up tonight. i also, we all owe you one for helping us understand what to expect tomorrow. so jennifer,, mary, let me turn to you. it really still bends my brain here. he sexually assaulted this woman, he continues to attack her. as of recently he posted 40 posts on truth social, which is a crazy person thing to do. why does nobody seem to really care about this? or do they? >> rob reiner, the guy who just won iowa by more than 50 points, the next thing he's going to do is go testify at the sexual assault, at the next iteration -- >> and probably attacker. >> at the sexual assault trial, which he's already been found, factually, as having committed this assault. this could go off the rails, this might not be great.

this might be something that helps nikki haley next week. he is going to attack her. people -- it is one thing to think that these doj cases are pursued by the biden campaign, by the biden administration for people to be under that misconception. but, to go and attack this woman, putting him on the stand. this is not a sound decision. this could go -- it could not go. well >> it could have might not go well. there are a lot of people who are not in the republican electorate will vote. everybody stay put, coming up a trip down memory lane. especially for david clothes and back in 2008 and how different our politics are now. we will be right back. l be right back.

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from the winner of the iowa caucus back in 2008. the guy that we all used to work for. take a look at the comparison between obama then, and trump now. >> we came together, as democrats, republicans, and independents to stand up and say that we are one nation. >> we are a great nation for years ago, and now we are a nation in decline. >> we are not a collection of red states and blue states, we are the united states of america. >> our country is left at all over the world, laughing at us. >> we'll be able to look back at pride and say that this was the moment when it all began. >> it's the fake news would become real and honest news, 90% of our problems in this country would be solved. >> something better awaits us if we had the courage to reach for it and to work for it and to fight for it. >> we are going to have to deport, we're going to have to have a deportation level that we haven't seen in this country

for a long time. >> hope is the bedrock of this nation. >> i go to a lot of court houses because of biden. because they are using that for election interference. >> this was the moment when we finally beat back the policies of fear, and out, and cynicism. >> he's the worst president that we've had in the history of our country. he's just throwing our country. >> the panel is back with me. i did not mean to end our time together on a dark, uplifting unsure note. one of the questions here is can our politics come back? remember, that election cycle, barack obama who looks like a baby there by the way -- >> he looks like barack obama's son. >> he looks like a son! our campaign was running against john mccain, right? a war hero who was, overall, a good guy. cannot come back? >> sometime. but i think donald trump has contaminated the water table of

our politics, and obviously with republican party. it doesn't just fix, when there is an oil spill on a lake it's not like you can just fix it in a year and it just turns. i think that the speech he gave was really, dark he didn't -- he invited the brick suit man onstage. this is where we are at. the republicans are about to nominate by acclamation somebody who is, who did an american carnage speech and then attempted a coup and he's inviting somebody onstage who just wants to build a wall so that we can make sure that people are not welcome in this country anymore. it is a dark thing. no, i don't think that we are going to flip a switch, joe biden wins and we go back to hope and change stuff, and in 2028 michael steele is the nominee. >> fundraising and rebuilding. >> -- >> he's retired, didn't hear?

>> no he isn't. >> david, watching that, that probably brought you back? what do you think watching that? >> first of all, i, mean trump has had some bad makeup days. tonight might have been the worst. that was really scary. here is what i would say, i agree with him. but i still think there is maybe 50 to 50% -- 55% of the country that longs for more unity, for a bigger purpose. that would like us, it may sound hopelessly naive. but i think obama spoke to that then, but that audiences out there, but it is smaller than it was. but, to me, barack obama has said that that was even more than winning the presidency twice, that was his most special political night. and it was because we were a huge underdog, and put together something that was largely driven by a bunch of 21 to 25-year-old kids organizing. the first time -- 70 rolled, rebellions,

independents. by the way, that is one of the reasons why we were able to win the primary against such a strong front runner, and win the presidency. >> and 250 people turned out. >> john edwards, hillary clinton, the people of their candidates. it was great to see. it was not the slog that we saw tonight. but i still have to believe that there is a majority in this country that is hungry for the volume to be lowered down and for us to find areas of agreement. but i agree, it has been contaminated and we have just got to make it through this election, which is a very big if, to have a chance to rebuild to have moments like that again. >> can i add something to that? >> go ahead. >> i'm not sure people are going to be ready to be able to cast their ballots based on great, inspiring leadership rhetoric that we heard from president obama. i think people are exhausted, jaded, are not sure what to

believe, and they need results. the need government to deliver and to solve problems. and not to ask so much of us to believe in after everything that we have seen, but to show that government can do, this it can solve problems, it can take things on and build back a credibility bit by bit. then we can get to the point where people are ready to see that this can still, work it can hang together. facts matter. if you are fixing roads and building bridges, people are more likely to believe that you are speaking the truth, then what trump says. but it is like a lot of credibility has to be put back before you get to this inspiring level. >> we've got about 15 seconds, but you are a professional. give us a bit of hope here. >> the hope lies in between tim and david in the sense that tim is marking the moment right now. dave it is clarifying the opportunity. the question to the rest of us,

u.s., is what america do you want? because whatever it is, you are going to create it beginning in november. because what comes in january is going to set the course for the country for quite some time. so, you've got to find that hope and optimism in yourself in order to translate it out to your neighbor and your friends because otherwise it is going to be a long slog and the world is going to look more like what tim described, then what david has described. with that, i say good day. >> well, we had to and on a bit of a hope and change thing. three of us worked for obama at one time. >> yes we can. >> yes we can return to makers of everyone. tim miller, jennifer palmieri, thank you for staying up late with, me for breaking down all of these results with me, what it means. that's it for us this hour.

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