leading the fight to ban congressional stock trading. and the only democrat who opposed wasteful “earmarks” that fund politicians' pet projects. katie porter. focused on your challenges - from lowering housing costs to fighting climate change. shake up the senate - with democrat katie porter. i'm katie porter and i approve this message. this election is a choice between results or just rhetoric. californians deserve a senator who is going to deliver for them every day and not just talk a good game. adam schiff. he held a dangerous president accountable. he also helped lower drug costs, bring good jobs back home, and build affordable housing. now he's running for the senate. our economy, our democracy, our planet. this is why we fight. i'm adam schiff, and i approve this message. ♪ ♪ ♪ onday. only at sleep number.

♪ ♪ ♪ it's one a. m. here in new york, midnight in iowa, and a very first test of the 2024 republican primary season is now complete. joining me now at the top of this hour, former obama campaign manager, msnbc political analyst, and my former boss david plouffe, former rnc chairman and co-host of the weekend, michael steele, former communications director for jeb bush 2016 campaign, and now writer at large for the bulwark tim miller, and former communications director for

president obama jennifer palmieri. now, tonight in iowa, nbc news projected that donald trump won the caucuses with more than 50% of the vote. his numbers really cement the four-time indicted candidate status as the front-runner. we already knew this. but in the republican field, the race for second place, it had a bit more drama with nikki haley and florida governor ron desantis locked in a dead heat for most of the night. but as awkward as he may be at times, and he is awkward, desantis did put in the work in iowa, and maybe that helped him. he visited all 99 counties, and it paid off a bit with a second place finish in the state. even if he doesn't have a real path forward, it seems. third place finisher nikki haley is now off to w hampshire, where traditionally, presidential candidates go right after the iowa caucuses. but not donald trump. he would once again buck tradition and head to a courtroom in new york city for the start of the e. jean carroll defamation trial. and that civil case is of course on top of the for criminal trials that trump is also facing, where he also seems to appear in the courtrooms, involving

classified information, and attempts to overturn the last election. but trump's legal woes certainly did not hold him back tonight. as we were just talking about, two thirds of iowa caucus goers, even if he's convicted, they say they still consider trump to be president. this place is the republican electorate, it seems pretty clear with their first choices. criminal charges and. all back with me, my all-star panel here. so, we talked a lot about trump, we talked a lot about the republican candidates. let's talk a little bit about the other guy running, president joe biden. so, plouffe, you talk to the campaign a lot. if they're watching what happens tonight, what do they think, do they think about it? >> well, one thing that's important when you are an incumbent, when does the general election start. this will suggest it's gonna stop a lot sooner than you probably like. >> is that good for them? >> i would argue maybe it is just because the sooner this turns into a searing contrast, the better off for biden. even if he has a couple more months to prepare, i think being in that box with him alone is probably helpful.

and i think what it shows is, you know, the republican party is, my guess is the biggest concern i have, as i think about next november, is the turnout differential that could be there. you know, there's not the enthusiasm for biden that you like. maybe you can wrongly on that. i think trump is gonna get his turn up. there is clearly some disaffected republicans that maybe biden could do as well as he did in 20, that was important. but i think trump is gonna get his turn out. i argue, if he gets convicted even more so, i think these numbers show, whatever you think it's gonna take to win a state like wisconsin, or arizona, from the biden campaign, i add 10% to it. it's basically attacks, the trump turnout is gonna be that. but that's the big thing is, starting next tuesday, if haley doesn't win new hampshire, trump's speech is gonna be, i'm done with the primary. i dispatch with all of these losers. and it's time for the rematch. and it's gonna be right on your doorstep, whether you like it or not. >> the biden campaign is fundraising off of trump's

front-runner status tonight. they don't really utter the names nikki haley or ron desantis because none of them think that they're running against them. they do have these it was scientologist, what you've talked about on the republican side too, where there is this belief from a fair number of undecided voters that it's not gonna be trump biden, right? that it won't be trump on the other side which to david plouffe's's point, it's clear that it's trump to everyone, and they are helped by that. but what do you think they should be doing to make that more clear? >> the biden people? >> yeah. >> i agree with everything david said. i think if i'm advising the president's campaign right now, i would look at them and say, can you put a boy on the street?

can you just have him walk some neighborhoods and go sit on, you know -- >> as in president biden? our boy? >> just to be clear -- >> i am like, who is the boy! >> but you see, that is my point. you have to bring it to that level so that people understand he is my boy. they have to commit, connect with this guy, and he is connectable. and democrats overthink the proposition here. this is not a complicated scenario against donald trump. it is a very complicated scenario against nikki haley. and so, you need to understand the runway you are being given. so, let donald trump try to shorten that runway by coming out of new hampshire and say, okay, let's do it. i'm ready. i am ready too. when do you want to meet so we

can talk about your 91 indictments, so i can talk about your e. jean carroll problem, so i can talk about the money you had to pay out? are your donors still paying your legal bills? i mean, this is the level that the campaign has to be prepared to go. and if you don't really want to see your boy get into that space, meaning the president, okay, that the political operation around him has to go there. and they haven't yet. and that, to me, is stunning. >> i do think that, your boy, president joe biden -- you know, going into communities, it's actually to your point what a superpower is, right? i mean, he loves -- he's kind of more extroverted than almost

anyone i've met. it's downright exhausting, actually. but he loves that glad-handing and all that stuff. it's often blamed on the communication strategy, which we all know is, like, it's never the totality of this -- [inaudible] i know, it's like, i'm feeling i'm getting shakes. i used to have mugs -- because oftentimes, not our problem. but talk to me, both of you, a little bit about we know who the biden superpowers are. he's empathetic. he connects with people. he loves glad-handing. he did give to speeches. that's not his superpower. it's not what people are voting for. what should he be doing? >> i think, i know the biden campaign, it's gonna be the earliest general election we've ever had. and they prepared for that. it started on january 5th with that speech that he gave in valley forge. you know, they are making a ton of hires. they have hires for the battleground. people when battlegrounds in

january, right? you are hoping to get people in may, june, july. they're actually on it. and last week, he did valley forge. he went to south carolina. the vice president has been to all the primary states. he went back to pennsylvania later in the week. he's gonna go to michigan. he's gonna go to nevada. he's making these speeches. they're doing the big contrast with trump, you know, on democracy, and freedoms, and all the things that are at stake. also, if you look at what he says, and also what they're doing online. and i know you saw this when you were in there, jen, that very targeted communication around accomplishments for african american voters, accomplishments for hispanic voters, the voters that they had in 20 that they have to win back. it's not like, oh, it's a switch -- there on it in terms of actually now implementing plans. i think that, and you know, because we have been causing trouble in the back all night and talking, why are they doing this, why are they doing that? and we are all on agreement that we need to see what will they do -- and even though he is older,

and, you know, he can miss speak, let us see that, let us be accustomed to it, and let us see what we love about the guy too. you know, and if you want to put out a pit dog on television, mitch landrieu was going over to the campaign. and that guy, he is an amazing communicator. >> he is epic bulldog. yes, but is also a politicos political. he also loves to glad-hand. to palmieri's point, i get to spend some time with a campaign. and obviously, meeting people where they are, and over used terms. but they're very focused on that. a lot of what's happening, a bit behind the scenes, it's hard to break through the blocking out of the son of donald trump and the crazy stuff he says and all of his legal issues. a lot of it, they're doing online, it's private, it's targeted. i mean, tim, you and i have talked often about, and it's so funny -- tim once more. but tim also always ask me, why

can't the democratic party just sing off the same song -- which is not a monolithic party like the republican party. >> give me that lyrics and the bigger letters for you. i do need more. i need more biden surrogates. we don't need to treat them like fine china. i don't want to see them out there. i want to go back to one other thing, david said, i think there might have been maybe some good news for biden, though, the numbers tonight. i agree that in general, trump will get his platform out. but this caucus turnout wasn't anything -- >> now, it was actually small. even after all of the iowans saying, we are fine, we're gonna put on socks. >> maybe it's a blowout, but it's something to keep our eye on. 167,000 last time, and 120 something right now. a big downward track from 2016. 32% if trump is convicted, unfit to be president. that's a big number. even if that's off, even if it's 22%. and even if he's not convicted. that's a group of people will have campaigned to work from. they can speak to those people

and they could persuade those people and that's a persuadable audience. the folks that went out there to vote for nikki haley today, it seems like most of them were pretty sick of donald trump. you know, getting almost to tim mueller or michael steele. i don't know if they are joe -- but they're pretty sick of donald trump. that's also encouraging, it's like, another big laps coming in the middle for the biden campaign. >> can i just add one more numbers to backup what tim said? one other important number buried in here for the biden campaign, which is good, of the republican caucus goers, 11%, 11% of them said, if it's a biden trump rematch with, they're going with biden. so, to really emphasize the point that tim made, there's a lot in this mix, and in a state like iowa. and that is good for democrats to take out of iowa as they begin to put in place that advance on the election.

>> and they're going against the election ban which -- >> there's a lot of material here and of course, in the actual battleground states, which sadly iowa is not anymore. we live in this -- world. biden campaign has a good sense of who those actual voters are. presidential campaigns can seem overwhelming. but it's actually quite simple. in this election, it's like seven states. that's all it is. it's not 50. and -- >> not iowa. >> and it is four to 5% of actual swing voters, that's it. a small number of americans.

and it is a fairly small number of people that you are trying to get to turn out, who actually won't turn out. so, i think in these numbers, with this swing voters, i think there's a lot to be encouraged about. but i think for biden to win, you've got to make sure that you do both sides of it, that you reach your turnout goals, and you may be right. my suspicion, it has all been wrong. the call to republicans to restore the wrongfully, you know, terminated leader is gonna be pretty strong. and iowa campaigns, it's always better, even if your data sets, they're gonna get ten votes in the precinct, you're gonna get 12. you have to raise your numbers. but i do think with swing voters and -- the 11% of them haven't seen that. you said these are hard-core, mostly evangelical iowa caucus attendees saying that, not general republicans. that suggests that maybe there's up to 50%, 80%. he won't get them all. boy, if biden could end up getting 68%, you know, that's how we can win again -- >> it's a game-changer. >> this is all very interesting. and it gives us a little hope. we need a little hope moment out of tonight. where ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ after donald trump's landslide win in iowa, the eyes of the political world now turned to new hampshire. over the past ek nikki haley has managed to the polling gap between her and trump, meaning thaunlike iowa, the primary has a chance to actually be competitive. and if she does win, which michael steele is not too hot on, e ill gonna talk about, it it could at least make for an exhausting few weeks before south carolina. joining me now from manchester, new hampshire, msnbc correspondent shaq brewster. we know donald trump is planning to head there after the first day of his defamation

trial tomorrow night. nikki haley is on her way. ron desantis is headed to south carolina first. tell us what you are hearing. is nikki haley gonna have an event when she lands? what are you hearing about her plans for tomorrow? >> reporter: yes, she will have an event later in the afternoon, and you will see events from all of the major candidates here in new hampshire. look, voters are ready for that tension to shift towards them. i tell you, i talked to a lot of voters throughout the course of the day. they are ready to go to these town halls. they are ready to engage with these candidates. one of these candidates arrive in new hampshire, they are arriving in a state that's gonna have a different process, and a different electorate. all that excitement that we thought out of iowa with a correspondents walking through auditoriums and gymnasiums, and hearing the candidate speeches and the open counting, that all goes away when you get to new

hampshire. this is a structure primary. it's more of what most people do when they go and vote. polls will open sometime around 6 am, as early as six a. m.. they close at seven pm. and it's more accessible to people. you go in, cash your ballot, and walk out. and those voters that are doing that, it's a different electorate, how much different group of voters than what we saw out of iowa. less conservative voters, fewer evangelical voters, many more moderate voters, especially in a state, when you break it down by party registration, they are more undeclared or independent voters in the state than there are democrats or republicans individually by those parties. so, what that means is it's more fertile ground for nikki haley. you are saying that in there polling that we have been seeing leading into, or i

should say, over the past week or so. but i will tell you, talking to campaigns, talking to voters, talking to allies of these candidates, the thing that they admit, folks here in new hampshire, they admit, it's sometimes a bit harder for them to admit this, but they admit that they have been watching iowa and the results in iowa matter. when you look at desantis, if you look at nikki haley, both of those campaigns who are looking for what they could describe as over performance to leave them with some momentum as they get into new hampshire. it's not clear that either of them got that. you will hear the campaigns argue that they have some momentum coming in. but there's no clear dominant second place performance for either of those two candidates. so, the consistency that you saw in iowa where the polling kind of match the results, the fear for some of the people here in new hampshire is that dominance that trump has in the polls right now is something that he will see extend to next week.

>> is there anything we are waiting for? i mean, nikki haley has governor sununu's endorsement. are there any other big endorsements hanging out there, or any other big moments that can happen between now and tuesday? >> reporter: i think throughout this entire campaign, yes there are endorsements that are there, there are endorsements not only about political leaders, but also some of those groups. those still exist. you know, she does have the governor's endorsement here. i think the biggest moment you can look for, it's what we've seen throughout this campaign. and it's the debate stage. we know that there is a debate scheduled on the march 4th thursday. that's a traditional debate here in new hampshire. nikki haley has not agreed to go to that debate as of yet. that is still up in the air. ron desantis has poked some fun at her for not making that agreement yet. and then, there's another debate later this week, or later this weekend, that's when both candidates have agreed to show up and appear at. so, if there is any moment that can shift the dynamics there, that would be it. and you know, the one thing, caution, when you look at the polls that i was just reading,

those polls include the name chris christie. and he was polling out about 12% consistently in a lot of the polls that we saw last week before he suspended his campaign. we don't know where the majority of his supporters will go. but i will tell you, i was at his campaign announcement where he suspended. and i talk to the folks in the room, his core supporters. many of them that night said, oh, i don't know who i can support. i feel lost now, one supporter told me. i've been checking in with them over the past couple of days or so. and the majority of those who i interacted with that day are now supporting nikki haley. so, that could be a boost for her. again, when you look at the iowa results, she did not get that second place finish that some people were hoping for, especially allies of her campaign. the question of momentum, and if it can fundamentally shift

the dynamics here in new hampshire, to now beat donald trump, that is still an open question. and it looks to be an uphill battle, at least at this point. >> that will certainly be good news for nikki haley. shaq brewster, as it gets cold as it is in iowa, it still looks pretty cold, even on the ground with voters throughout this campaign cycle. thank you so much for staying up late with us tonight and for bringing us some insights from the ground in new hampshire. i am back here with my panel. so, we were just kind of mapping this out and this sort of fantasy flip over and politics i guess, which is, like, if you were on nikki haley's campaign advising her, what would her first, what would the next week look like. i know part of the answer from you david plouffe, is that she

would have a rally before tomorrow afternoon, and -- >> it may seem like a small thing that's not tactically, you know, she should do and event when she lands at four a. m., so that everyone who looks at their phone, watch is the morning shows, has talk radio, has footage and sound of haley saying, new hampshire, you know, you can basically turn the page on trump and biden, and, like, it's malpractice not to do that even though you are -- but i think the rest of the week, i mean, there would be a lot of advertising on truth social. i think they should have actual new hampshire voters who voted for trump, and they won't do anymore. that would be a good thing to do. i think doing a lot of otr's, we know she's a good speaker -- >> which is when you show up unannounced. >> i can't -- a coffee shops,

diners, i think the debate are tough -- >> whether she should go or? not >> because i do think that and you are is the major station in new hampshire, so there could be a downside of stuffing, them looking like you're afraid. on the other, and desantis is relevant in new hampshire, is probably all downside for haley. it's a tough, one they're going to make it now on the plane. but i think that she needs to have a frantic pace. she has started to be a little bit more strong in her indictment of trump tonight, but she needs more of that. i think other people making that. and be prepared for a trump's barbed because, again, he's not going to be gentle this week. >> he's even predicted he's not going to be gentle. he's told us that he's not going to be gentle.

>> organizationally, it's less important in a primary than a caucus, but clearly, desantis he came in second place with 2000 votes in iowa. if i am her, if she gets asked why is it with two person race. i'm the only one with a legitimate chance to beat trump in new hampshire. he put all the chips there -- don't worry about that. but, you look at the steve kornacki did a good job in des moines, she should've done better. , what the question is was the registrar pull off -- as that a candidate has he's been, his organization helped him get to 21% of the vote. so, haley's got to make sure, particularly, that the democrats and independents actually come out. >> now, not giving too much credit, but she did say in the interviews that haley may have some problems, right? as we all know, polls test a moment in time and there is the momentum question.

i did want to play something she said tonight because she continues to make this electability argument. the question is should she keep making it, but let's play it and we'll talk about it. >> republicans have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections. that is nothing to be proud of. we should want to earn the support of a majority of americans. all the evidence says that, if it is a trump biden rematch, it is going to be another toss-up election. it could go either way. we could have more disputes over election interference and joe biden could win again. with kamala harris waiting in the wings. lord help us if that happens. >> there is a lot to unpack there.

as we're all talking about how nikki haley is a sort of like the modern version, she just said disputes over election interference is, that's not on the level just to be clear. it's an insurrection, let's call it what it is. and then the kamala harris thing is such a way, i don't know if it is a dog whistle, it's more than a dog whistle. it's like, joe biden is old, he might die. that is what she is saying, and kamala harris is a black woman. that was what she is saying from that podium. that aside, the electability argument that didn't pop up in these entering polls, but it is a theme of what she has been saying. if she's next generation, let's turn the page from the last leadership. is that the best argument, --

>> no. it's not. look, the democratic and republican primaries have proven to us not once but twice that they want to old white men. again, the reality of it is in 2020 on those stages you had the next stage is running against donald trump and joe biden. so other abortion side they said, we aim to doing this. so they shut it down, side all focused on the democrats. the democrats had a swath of folks that they could have put out there over joe biden and they didn't. so, why are you complaining now about the guy that you picked four years ago? same narrative here for republicans in this race. you are sitting here and it is not select ability. you know so you've got sitting in the wings waiting to take the crown, right? get what are the numbers showing us? 51% in iowa. so all of the stuff about age

and electability is nonsense because the voters are telling you who they want. so let's up, giddyup, and get into the campaign around those two candidates. >> gear up, giddyup. okay, maybe that is part of her speech, i'm not sure. >> it's still going to the electability thing. >> okay, tim, let's just to say, because there is still a primary in new hampshire. you have worked for -- that's not what i was going to say, but you've said a number of republican candidates. what argument should nikki haley be making? >> in our little fancy that we are playing here, to get into a tie machine and tell you. >> you can do it time machine, there are no rules. >> i would have started to seven months ago trying to prosecute some kind of case for why donald trump should not be the nominee. >> chris christie did that -- >> there was a path that was between the chris christie path

and between the, oh, i think it's a deep state is coming after mr. trump pat and i don't have a substantive criticism of either of them, except that chaos that seems to follow. there was something in between that and chris christie. we are here and now, so you can't start up a new criticism against him now because it sounds like sour grapes. so all she has left is the electability argument, but the problem is she has made the electability argument. she's backed yourself into a corner. guess what? the republican voters, they think donald trump won in 2020. >> they also think that he's more electable now. >> they think he's still the president, okay? and controls the military. so you can't make a case of electability against people who think donald trump won twice. that's the problem, she's backed yourself against this corner. it might be the best card she has to use -- in a vortex, about what her past points. cwe're back after a quick break. o ov pas couple of weeks, almosbeen little bitcking trum mean, over the weekenat if s th nominee biwould eading in swing states. body cecause nobod thhat he-- >> desantis is making some ts >> it's inteing, w t sneak in a qreak coming, up don from his on his way to new york where he wil attend the start of anothe trial. this one about how much he wil have to pay e. jean carroll fo defaming her george connally joins th conversation when we come back we're back after a quick break

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trump is expected to attend a trial that will decide how much he has to pay e. jean carroll for defaming her. trump has said he doesn't plan to attend and testify as well at this trial. remember, he has already been found liable for defaming and sexually assaulting her. but after the first trial, he couldn't stop talking her. he recently posted about her 40 times in a single day on truth social, a stable thing to do. he didn't have to have the trial sang he couldn't attend on wednesday saying that it's the same day as the funeral for melania trump's mother, the request was denied after lawyers -- in new hampshire on the same day. it is very awkward. joining our conversation is conservative attorney, george conway who i'm assuming has some thoughts about all of this because he has been admitted into evidence in this case. let me first say,, though thank you for staying up with us. this is a real commitment to democracy here, being up with us at 1:30 in the morning. we really, really appreciate it. but let me start with that.

you, georgia, tell us what it means to be admitted in evidence as you sort of announced on twitter. tell us a bit also about what your predictions are for how this will all play out? >> the story about my being admitted to evidence was the fact that i introduced, actually jean carroll walked up to me at a party in 2019 and ask me whether she thought she had a case, and i said yes, i think you do. i know the right lawyer for you and i turned out that she did hire that lawyer and brought the case. for some reason trump's lawyers are the first trial were absolutely obsessed with this fact. they kept -- much to the noise of the judge, but jean's lawyers decided, well, we don't mind the fact that a former republican pointed us, our client to the lawyer who she hired. so, they put it in evidence themselves and then trump kept

banging on it and tried to make something out of it. the judge would have out it. in the pretrial of denture rulings last week, for this week's trial, the judge said that you can talk about how -- you can talk about conley if you really want. so here i am, admitted into evidence. two out of two trials. >> there you are. congratulations on that note. so, what are we expecting tomorrow? what are you watching for tomorrow? >> obviously he is going to try to make this a circus, but the fact of the matter is it is going to be very, very hard for him to do that because you've got a federal judge who is about 500 times smarter than him and very, very strict in what he allows to happen in his courtroom. another thing that is happening is, because he lost the first trial, he basically doesn't get to contest any of the key things that were issued in the first trial, which is the fact that he raped e. jean carroll and what he said about e. jean

carroll was defamatory. this trial is only gonna be about damages because you can only fight an issue with a party once and then you are bound by that result. the only reason why there are two trials was the first trial, related to things that he said after he became president and the original assault, which was not part of the original lawsuit, the original lawsuit, which is the one that is going to travel this week, was a lawsuit for the false things that he said when he was president, when he denied the allegation that the jury has found to be accurate. that she was raped by donald trump. and also that she had made a

false statement, the denial of the incident and the killing of her a liar. so, the fact that he was president, i should point out, means that whatever damages for this defamation occurred, which would be greater than the damages for the defamation in the prior case. >> it is really not remarkable because nothing is surprising that he couldn't stop himself from attacking her. he posted 40 times on truth social. he is still planning to attend the trial and speak. well i have, you i did want to ask, of course there is the iowa caucus tonight which i'm sure you are fully tracking. and there were entry polls in that. one of those entry, polls 65% of caucus goers say that if trump were to be convicted of a true crime they would consider him fit to be president. do you think that reflective of the electorate? are people paying attention, or do they not know the details? what's going on there? help us understand. >> i think it's reflects the republican electorate in iowa.

i absolutely believe that. i think it reflects a significant part of the republican electorate because what has happened with these people, as they decided to force eight facts, they decide to forsake reality in favor of trying to bolster in their own minds this fantasy view of donald trump, as somehow a decent person, an intelligence person, a competent person, somehow immoral pursuant, and somehow a law-abiding person. none of which is true. the problem is that the evidence is against them, so they continue to turn it out. they say it is a big conspiracy against him. if they don't listen to the evidence and nothing that will happen in these legal proceedings will affect how those people vote. it will, however, i believe, affect the way americans who are sensible, who listen to facts and who might go either way, depending on normal considerations. i just think those people are going to basically say that we cannot have this.

>> i think we're seeing that in the polls, to. it's an important point to remember, about the totality of the electorate. george connally, thank you for staying up tonight. i also, we all owe you one for helping us understand what to expect tomorrow. so jennifer,, mary, let me turn to you. it really still bends my brain here. he sexually assaulted this woman, he continues to attack her. as of recently he posted 40 posts on truth social, which is a crazy person thing to do. why does nobody seem to really care about this? or do they? >> rob reiner, the guy who just won iowa by more than 50 points, the next thing he's going to do is go testify at the sexual

assault, at the next iteration -- >> and probably attacker. >> at the sexual assault trial, which he's already been found, factually, as having committed this assault. this could go off the rails, this might not be great. this might be something that helps nikki haley next week. he is going to attack her. people -- it is one thing to think that these doj cases are pursued by the biden campaign, by the biden administration for people to be under that misconception. but, to go and attack this woman, putting him on the stand. this is not a sound decision. this could go -- it could not go. well >> it could have might not go well. there are a lot of people who are not in the republican electorate will vote. everybody stay put, coming up a trip down memory lane. especially for david clothes and back in 2008 and how different our politics are now. we will be right back. attention hearing loss suffers! do you have trouble keeping up with conversations? do you listen to tv on max volume?

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by now we all know that donald trump's vision for america, if you really want to call it that, is not exactly but lifting this country up. it is about retribution. his words, those are his worries. that scene was very clear in his speech tonight, which cast of the 2024 race in dark and divisive terms, even if he was a little low energy, i would say. needless to say, trump's rhetoric stood in stark contrast with the kind of unifying language that we heard from the winner of the iowa caucus back in 2008. the guy that we all used to work for. take a look at the comparison between obama then, and trump now. >> we came together, as democrats, republicans, and independents to stand up and say that we are one nation. >> we are a great nation for years ago, and now we are a nation in decline. >> we are not a collection of

red states and blue states, we are the united states of america. >> our country is left at all over the world, laughing at us. >> we'll be able to look back at pride and say that this was the moment when it all began. >> it's the fake news would become real and honest news, 90% of our problems in this country would be solved. >> something better awaits us if we had the courage to reach for it and to work for it and to fight for it. >> we are going to have to deport, we're going to have to have a deportation level that we haven't seen in this country for a long time. >> hope is the bedrock of this nation. >> i go to a lot of court houses because of biden. because they are using that for election interference. >> this was the moment when we finally beat back the policies of fear, and out, and cynicism. >> he's the worst president

that we've had in the history of our country. he's just throwing our country. >> the panel is back with me. i did not mean to end our time together on a dark, uplifting unsure note. one of the questions here is can our politics come back? remember, that election cycle, barack obama who looks like a baby there by the way -- >> he looks like barack obama's son. >> he looks like a son! our campaign was running against john mccain, right? a war hero who was, overall, a good guy. cannot come back? >> sometime. but i think donald trump has contaminated the water table of our politics, and obviously with republican party. it doesn't just fix, when there is an oil spill on a lake it's not like you can just fix it in a year and it just turns. i think that the speech he gave

was really, dark he didn't -- he invited the brick suit man onstage. this is where we are at. the republicans are about to nominate by acclamation somebody who is, who did an american carnage speech and then attempted a coup and he's inviting somebody onstage who just wants to build a wall so that we can make sure that people are not welcome in this country anymore. it is a dark thing. no, i don't think that we are going to flip a switch, joe biden wins and we go back to hope and change stuff, and in 2028 michael steele is the nominee. >> fundraising and rebuilding. >> -- >> he's retired, didn't hear? >> no he isn't. >> david, watching that, that probably brought you back? what do you think watching that? >> first of all, i, mean trump has had some bad makeup days. tonight might have been the worst. that was really scary. here is what i would say, i agree with him. but i still think there is maybe 50 to 50% -- 55% of the country that longs for more unity, for a bigger purpose. that would like us, it may sound hopelessly naive. but i think obama spoke to that then, but that audiences out

there, but it is smaller than it was. but, to me, barack obama has said that that was even more than winning the presidency twice, that was his most special political night. and it was because we were a huge underdog, and put together something that was largely driven by a bunch of 21 to 25-year-old kids organizing. the first time -- 70 rolled, rebellions, independents. by the way, that is one of the reasons why we were able to win the primary against such a strong front runner, and win the presidency. >> and 250 people turned out. >> john edwards, hillary clinton, the people of their candidates. it was great to see. it was not the slog that we saw tonight. but i still have to believe that there is a majority in this country that is hungry for the volume to be lowered down and for us to find areas of agreement. but i agree, it has been contaminated and we have just got to make it through this election, which is a very big if, to have a chance to rebuild to have moments like that again. >> can i add something to that?

>> go ahead. >> i'm not sure people are going to be ready to be able to cast their ballots based on great, inspiring leadership rhetoric that we heard from president obama. i think people are exhausted, jaded, are not sure what to believe, and they need results. the need government to deliver and to solve problems. and not to ask so much of us to believe in after everything that we have seen, but to show that government can do, this it can solve problems, it can take things on and build back a credibility bit by bit. then we can get to the point where people are ready to see

that this can still, work it can hang together. facts matter. if you are fixing roads and building bridges, people are more likely to believe that you are speaking the truth, then what trump says. but it is like a lot of credibility has to be put back before you get to this inspiring level. >> we've got about 15 seconds, but you are a professional. give us a bit of hope here. >> the hope lies in between tim and david in the sense that tim is marking the moment right now. dave it is clarifying the opportunity. the question to the rest of us, u.s., is what america do you want? because whatever it is, you are going to create it beginning in november. because what comes in january is going to set the course for the country for quite some time. so, you've got to find that

hope and optimism in yourself in order to translate it out to your neighbor and your friends because otherwise it is going to be a long slog and the world is going to look more like what tim described, then what david has described. with that, i say good day. >> well, we had to and on a bit of a hope and change thing. three of us worked for obama at one time. >> yes we can. >> yes we can return to makers of everyone. tim miller, jennifer palmieri, thank you for staying up late with, me for breaking down all of these results with me, what it means. that's it for us this hour. but stay right where you are because more special coverage of the iowa caucus is coming up after a quick break.

it is might midnight here in new york, 11 p.m. in iowa where tonight caucus goers braved record low temperatures, gathered in gyms, churches and schools across the state and gave us a first tangible look where republican voters stand right now. and tonight iowaen republicans delivered a resounding victory to donald trump. with me here at the table is an all-star panel. former obama campaign manager, msnbc political analyst, and i

always like to say, my old boss, david plouffe. and the host of the weekend on msnbc michael steele, simone sanders townsend, and alicia melendez. everyone is working very hard the past couple of days. nbc can predict donald trump is the projected winner tonight. we'll stay close with that decision desk and the one and only steve kornacki. the field is also one candidate smaller tonight. vivek ramaswamy announced he is dropping out of the race and endorsing donald trump. and for trump this is on track to be the largest margin of victory, the largest margin of victory for a candidate as a reminder currently facing 91 charges against four criminal cases. and when it comes to those many charges against those many cases, most iowa caucus goers do not seem that concerned.

according to iowa entrance polls about two thirds say if trump is convicted he's still fit to be president. and of course those who do believe that overwhelmingly voted for him tonight, we saw that in the numbers as well. we also learnled tonight from those same entry polls that the big lie is very much alive and well among iowaen republican caucus goers. about two thirds of them still say president joe biden did not legitimately win the 2024 election. he of course definitely did. with an iowa win under donald trump's belt, traditionally it would be time to head straight to new hampshire. they get on planes, weak up, go to pit stops, go to diners. not for trump. instead he'll make a pit stop a different kind of one in a new york city courtroom for the start of a trial tomorrow to decide how much he has to pay

writer e. jean carroll for defaming her after she accused him of sexual abuse. we have so much to talk about but first let's get right to steve kornacki at the big board. steve, take us inside the numbers. there were some surprises i would say today. >> actually late breaking surprises. it is a blow out win for trump and desantis edging for second place. it looked donald trump was going to go 99 for 99 and win every single county in iowa and then the final batch of votes came in where in johnson county iowa city and the university of iowa is in. we think this is all the votes in johnson county now and look at this, nikki haley in the end winning by one vote over donald trump. so the difference of one vote in johnson county may and it seems will prevent donald trump from having a 99-county sweep.

johnson county has the highest concentration of degrees in iowa, no surprise it's where the university is. we talked about that being the backbone of haley's coalition she built in iowa. college degrees, higher incomes, suburban, urban metropolitan dwellers. that's going to be the only county she wins, the only county a nontrump candidate wins. haley was competitive but frankly disappointing for her campaign in dallas county, big suburban county outside demoans. you look at polk county where des moines is, a lot of suburbs there, too. haley finish surprise still fewer votes here. also a disappointment for her, but these are the areas where she ran the best. and i start with her because if

anybody in the next contest in new hampshire is going to give trump a run there it's going to be nikki haley. and demographically the group she did the best with tonight independent voters. exit polls with independent voters made up 16% tonight. ennew hampshire next week they could make up 45% or so of the electorate, so that is what could give nikki haley a chance next week, if you just look at the independents here, there's like three times as many of them in the new hampshire election next week, and all the polling in new hampshire shows her leading with inindependents so far. for donald trump this is a story of the counties he won in 2016. the most notable thing for trump is counties the most evangelical and church going in the state were some of the most resistant to him back in 2016 including

sioux county here. he wins it by double digits tonight from 11 to 45%. he jumped 34 points in this county. this county and so many others. 42 counties in iowa that went from mike huckabee, rick santorum, won the state and went for ted cruz in 20126 over trump. 42 counties fit that criteria. trump swept all 42 of those counties, so that bond he has with evangelical voters he formed after and shatters two records. pat dole, and 58% 10 points higher that was george w. bush back in 2000. bush of course did go onto win the nomination.

>> if anyone thinks their vote doesn't count, johnson county wants to have a word with you. steve kornacki, one question before i let you go. ron desantis he's been losing in the polls over the last couple of polls by the des moines register, he's been losing steam i should say. where in the state was doing better than expected? >> i don't know doing better than expected as much as haley doing worse. couple of examples here were -- i'll show you again, just go back into dallas county haley was supposed to be beating him by a bigger margin here. this is an under-performance by haley in this county. might be a bit of an overperformance and there's a lot of votes, doesn't look like a lot of votes that you're used to seeing in bigger states. this is a bad showing for haley finishing behind. again, she should be in second

place here. maybe on a fantastic night winning in the county. a slight under-performance here in these suburban area. and the problem is the bottom fell out for her in rural areas. there's more than 20 counties in the state she finished in single digits tonight. only four counties where desantis is going to finish. >> thank you again for sticking up with all of us. i want to bring in nbc news correspondent dasha burns now at governor desantis' headquarters ins western iowa. tell us how does the team feel? >> reporter: look, as the parties are winding down here, no doubt the entire team is breathing a sigh of relief. he did edge out nikki haley for second plaes, and this was do or die for the desantis campaign. they poured so many resources,

so much energy into the state. if you created a rubric how to run a campaign in iowa, they checked all the boxes. they got an "a" on it. i was in this state back in june when they knocked on nearly a million doors in here, got all the right endorsements. he spent more time here than any other candidate except vivek ramaswamy who dropped out tonight. at the end of the day that was the big factor here. if he did all of that and didn't come in second place, that was a going to be a huge factor for him. he's not heading to new hampshire tomorrow. he's actually heading to south carolina to stomp on nikki haley's home turf. the two of them are going to be going at it. but here's the thing, iowa sets the nar ffbative, right? that's why the state is so important. and the narrative we got tonight is donald trump is absolutely

dominant, and the non-trump vote is still very much split. it's not like desantis came out of this with a resounding second place win. it is very close as far as we see it right now. i know we don't have the final margins yet. as you look at the map going forward with the non-trump vote, it's going to be really tough for anyone to catch the former president. but his rivals do live to fight another day. >> ron desantis living to fight another day. there we go. nbc's dasha burns, thank you so much for joining us early a.m. that we are in. i want to bring in now nbc news correspondent vaughn hilliard at donald trump's headquarters. what are you hearing from the trump team? >> reporter: donald trump is en route to new hampshire. there was one notable figure not up on that stage perhaps not

notable to much of the country but north dakota governor doug bergam. he's the one republican candidate appeared on the debate stage with him and dropped out and endorsed him. it was doug bergam so far is the one to have started the coalescing around donald trump. frankly, it's notable because we have lived through this before. eight years ago i was in the state of iowa and it was ron desantis -- or i should say ted cruz making the same arguments we've been hearing from desantis in the last couple of days, that donald trump is going to get creamed in a general election, that fox news is not being fair. these are the types of arguments that we heard from ted cruz eight years ago, and what have we seen already. we've seen marco rubio this weekend just eight years after he was endorsed by nikki haley not return the favor in 2024 but

instead endorse donald trump here. i asked a campaign senior advisor what is your message to republicans who have not gotten onboard with donald trump at this point in the middle of his retribution tour, and that senior advisor told me tiktok. and right now what we're finding after a win like this how long will they doles around a candidate like a ramaswamy or desantis but around donald trump. >> you heard that in the beginning of his speech i should say. it went off the rails later. thank you for work hard and you've been in the freezing cold temperatures tonight. so i'm going to go to my panel and get your thoughts. there's a lot to dig into, but i want to start with we heard from a lot of these candidates tonight since we've seen the result. i just mentioned trump. he started out about everyone

coalescing, coming together. what did you make of his comments tonight or his speech? >> it was typical trump ipmany respects. but i think trump also recognizes a window in which he can put a lot more pressure on nikki going into new hampshire than she may realize. because the idea among the rank and file of the party is, okay, everybody needs to get onboard behind trump. vivek comes out, he gets out, he endorses trump. bergham endorses trump. you have others inside the party itself, officials in the party making that move towards trump. so it's going to put a lot of pressure on new hampshire. new hampshire has always been certainly in republican primary

circles because democrats and republican get to play and have a say who the thaumny is. in any other election cycle that's good for a john mccain. that's good for, you know, a george bush. in this election cycle, it doesn't play the same way. if you're not onboard going into new hampshire, you're not going to be the person that's going to pull that person onto trump. an interesting pressure point for nikki how she plays to that independent democratic base she's going to need to brush her numbers up to overtake trump and at the same time not lose that trump base. >> yeah, i mean new hampshire is such a different electorate than iowa and different from a lot of the other states. we also saw nikki haley speak. it gave us a little bit of a sense of how she's going to maybe play the next couple of days. what did you make of her remarks? >> i think she wants to fight.

she made a compelling case at least to new hampshire voters and laid it on against trump. going after trump and biden but making that generational case. i think that's a question of, listen, if she can't win new hampshire next tuesday's january 23rd, the republican primary is over. if i were trump i would declare it over, i wouldn't go to anymore primary states and i'd start the general election. if haley wins then you probably go through march, and her challenge is to figure out and i think it's a steep challenge, how can you eke in with the traditional republican voters. i think that's what we're down to right now. i think desantis had a shot. he didn't take advantage of it. he heard all the money all the time and he got 21% of the vote. he's not going to have that

anywhere else. i don't know why he's going to stay in. >> if he'd gotten third it would have been harder. >> well, but there's nowhere to go. when i grew up in campaigns you got to win. if you can't win, there's no state that i think this guy can win including his home state. but haley i was impressed that she made a case, it was probably the stronger case i've heard her make, and i agree with you trump's going to be waiting there, and this is a brutal week in american politics and so we'll see how she can handle the spotlight, but if she's able to win, her path could not be more narrow at that point, but at least she has one. >> he's already kind of previewed, sort of alluded in this mobby trump way you'll learn something about nikki haley in the days ahead. if you were advising her, would you be participating in this debate on thursday?

>> yes, i would, but also we would have gotten a new speechwriter for tonight. >> give us your line edit. >> she comes out and she sounded like a pundit. too much process. what americans want, they want inspiration, republican voters who aren't really feeling donald trump but may still like his policies, you've got to give them something to vote for. and what nikki haley said you could turn on the television and hear her say it better right now. i think she has to turn the paige from being a pundit and get a little bit more inspirational, and the debate will give her the opportunity to do that. it's going to be the biggest stage to do that -- >> this is her and desantis. >> well, if he's still standing there. and i do think he'll still be standing there to david's point. if he had come in third i'd be on desantis watch. but he came in second.

donald trump was the one that came out of iowa with the most delegates. there are delegates to win in new hampshire, nikki haley will not be able to gather any of those delegates, and she is not poise today wip her home state. there has not been a republican nominee and only two presidents in our modern day history have lost their home state and gone onto win the presidency, five total. the math is not adding. >> it's certainly a hard speech to make if you lose your home state. one of the things with haley is how she wins against trump. he's going to come after her with everything's he's got. let us play if we have it this -- where she talks about trump. she made the same speech again and again where she's supported him in the past. do we have it? so we'll get it up. >> what it underscores for me is

just how unusual this moment is. right, because i think sometimes you hear the campaign election music swell and you see their head shots pick up and steve kornacki at the big board. and it's really easy to forget what we're talking about here. we're talking about the fact republicans are prepared to put forward as their nominee a four times indicted, twice impeached former president who has no real winning record, right? he has lost the popular vote twice. he lost the electoral college. he lost the iowa caucuses despite the fact on stage he tried to claim having won all three of them. >> to me the biggest tell is -- because we always say why. how is it possible? why are all these folks coming utin subzero temperatures to support someone they are not sure could win in a general

election. the fact you had twof-thirds of these caucus goers saying they do not believe joe biden, the president of the united states, is a legitimately elected president helps explain why they don't think donald trump is a loser. because they have bought his lie he did not lose. >> to be clear i was trying to be ironic. >> no, you're a back up singer. i love it. >> i'm a back up singer. >> you do have a good point. we do have a sneak in a quick break. we have so much to talk about because clearly michael steele is chomping. he's ready to say something. we'll be back. stay with us. o say something. we'll be back. stay with us to duckduckgo on all your devie

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so donald trump has handily won the iowa caucuses tonight. ron desantis eked out a second place finish tonight over nikki haley giving him a sliver of rationale for staying in this race, and yet nikki haley said tonight that iowa turned this into a two-person race. >> tonight iowa made this republican primary a two-person race. tonight -- tonight i will be back in the great state of new hampshire. and the question before americans is now very clear.

do you want more of the same or do you want a new generation of conservative leadership? >> we're back with our panel. okay, people in the room really liked her speech. i'm not sure how she swears the two-person race argument. ron desantis i think we all agree doesn't exactly have a path forward but he'll beat her. >> math is math. it's a four-person. >> maybe. simone's point about reevaluating the speechwriter who clearly did not do last minuteedsts. that was a speech written as it was intended to be given after she placed -- >> or she's hoping people aren't really following the steve kornacki big board and she just wants to tell people how she did, and look, i have all the

momentum going into new hampshire. >> i think the fact still remains this is trump's dance. he paid for the orchestra. he paid for the balloons and the confetti. he paid for the dance hall. i mean, it's his dance. so you can come in and you think you can, you know, whirl around the room and take out -- >> i have one editch he likely didn't pay for any of it. >> yeah, that's true. someone else paid for it. >> i agree with the point. >> let me finish the point real quick. the point is simply this. i understand there's a lot of momentum and energy that want to push nikki over the liep in new hampshire regardless of whatever happened in iowa at the end of the day. i just don't see those numbers and i don't see that energy in that base for that. and independent and democratic voters are not going to be enough in a republican primary

to overcome trump in another primary with different republican, maybe. i just -- i think they're short changing that trump turnout machine in new hampshire. >> look, also to be clear she did not have a good night tonight. she had a poll that showed her in second place a few days ago. it's not that her numbers were so off from there, in the electorate you have to make a bet about that. but donald trump beat her. she was pretend s she was in the race two days ago. >> she did not meet the expectations the last couple of weeks, right? but she just needed to do what she she did because desantis has nothing after this. he put all of his chips in iowa. it's what we did in 2008. if you put all your chips there to not come in second and you don't, you're out. and desantis does not have any realistic path. it might not have been polite

for her ta say that but it's the reality. the only way desantis is in the picture would be let's say haley loses by 10 or 15 next week. i don't think she would, but decides i'm out, and desantis is left standing to lose 70, 30 everywhere if not 80, 20. it is a two-person race in that -- by the way, she's got like a 2% chance. but those are the only two people i think you could credibly say have a chance. and for her it's got to be an amazing black swan event starting she has to win -- >> a black swan event. >> it's what trump had in 2016 quite frankly. they happen very rarely but they happen in politics. i don't see this. his numbers are so strong. if you look at the illinoiss and californias and marylands of the world, trump is a dominant,

dominant front-runner. >> it's the biggest get for delegates on super tuesday. the question is where do chris christie's voters go? and if you look back at the speech the former new jersey gave when he spus spended his campaign, he very clearly and bold and underlined endorsed any of his former opponents in this race. he said anyone unwilling to say donald trump is unfit to be president is unfit to be presidents themselves. all of the the people in this race have been unwilling to say that. and by chris christie's standards he was telling people none of these people. i do not think nikki haley is up to the task because if you want to win, you've got to compete. and this has not been a competition. >> to that point we do have the

sound i mentioned earlier of haley talking about trump and how she formerly worked for him. this is such a tricky world salad she's got going on, but let'sen to it and we'll talk about it. >> i've spoken a lot of hard truths to america, and here's another one. i voted for donald trump twice. i was proud to serve in his administration, but when i say more of the same, you know what i'm talking about. it's both donald trump and joe biden. trump and biden both lack a vision for our country's future because both are consumed by the past, by investigations, by vendettas, by grievances. america deserves better. >> i do think, one, she's a good speaker, a good debater. the contrast in terms of next generation is very good and

effective i think. what feels tricky to me is if it becomes a two-person race she's running against trump saying i worked for him, i voted for him twice, he was the right president then but not the right president now. >> it's the type of word salad only expensive polling can buy. you see her hitting the point consultants have told her, the one path she has. i think what she's trying to do if i can dissect that, is to create what we often talk about which is permission structure for trump voters to say not this time. >> come my way, i'm young, i'm next gen. >> but not even that just saying i too voted for him. we think about these folks who maybe feel they were duped but they don't want to admit they were duped, and they don't know how to come back from that, or folks who maybe still like him but aren't sure he can be elected. so saying i am one of you, i too voted for him, but i am ready to

make a pivot, are you ready to make a pivot with me. what we saw in iowa tonight there's not necessarily enough republican voters willing in a primary to make that pivot. >> that was actually better. >> speechwriter -- they're not available to be hired as speechwriters because you have a new show on saturdays and sundays. thank you for staying up with us tonight. tim miller and jennifer palmieri are standing by. we have much more to get to including the state of the race in new hampshire. we're back after a very quick break. new hampshire we're back after a very quick break. do you listen to tv on max volume? start hearing better today, with rca's all new, micro-hearing aids. through rca's hearing america program, you can get your choice of two state-of-the-art ultra discreet hearing aids now for a special introductory price,

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with the results from iowa in, the republican candidates are on the move to their next destinations. for nikki haley it's straight to new hampshire. she better be holding some sort of rally there when she arrives. donald trump will be heading to new york obviously where he'll be attending the start of a new civil trial brought by e. jean carroll, before then heading to new hampshire later in the

evening. and for ron desantis it's south carolina. desantis is bucking usual political tradition to attend an event in a state that won't be holding its primary for another month. now, after donald trump's victory tonight, new hampshire will be one of the few last best chances for someone to build any sort of momentum and actually challenge the heavy republican favorite. whether there's any reality to that is a big question not really a question. but the best place to do that if someone's going to do it is haley. she's endorsed by governor chris sununu and over the past week she's managed to close the polling gap between her and donald trump. david plouffe and michael steele are still here with me. and joining the conversation fresh blood, former communications director for jeb bush, and former communications director for barack obama, jennifer palmieri. she's also the host of the msnbc podcast "how to win 2024." okay, fresh blood here. tim miller, i know you've got

some thoughts, some rants here on what's going to happen in new hampshire. what does it look like for nikki haley there? does this have any impact? >> yeah. this is a profoundly depressing night, i would just like to start with that. donald trump attempted a coup three years ago, and he is on a glide path to the biggest blow out in any presidential contest in any of our adult lives. that even includes steel. nikki haley it feels like it's a show campaign happening here. we have to go through the motions. it feels like it's belarus where lukashenko puts up two others on the ballot just to have -- the biggest blow out before this in iowa caucus history was 12 points. what's going to happen in new hampshire? democrats are going to save her? >> she won johnson county, one county. >> by one vote.

>> by one vote, which is the brooklyn or boulder of iowa. where iowa city is, the university of iowa. and she didn't make up any grounds among any coalition that's beyond democrats, never trumpers, independents. >> like suburban and republican chamber of commerce. in fact, loss ground. >> in fact, loss ground buzz chairman steele predicted she would come in third and not come in second. we were talking about this like she's like a television character for a presidential candidate but she doesn't actually like go for the gusto. i don't feel she has -- if she really had the fire in her, she'd be going directly at trump, not trying to have a metaphor of trump and biden are the same people. still, she may win in new hampshire because new hampshire really does not like trump. i mean if you look at the general election polling,

biden's doing really well there. there's been a lot of anti-trump messaging. democrats and independents maybe they could save her. new hampshire for their own status they need to do something to prove their relevant so maybe they want to do it. i think michael's right because there are a lot of bodies that show up, so it's possible there's a -- that's not really reflected in the polling. but i think that new hampshire is going to want this to be a fight. they're going to want to do something different than what iowa did. that's what they always do. isn't that right, david plouffe? >> historically, yeah. listen, she's holding a weak hand, but she's the only one with cards at the table other thap trump. so i think -- >> does she have cards after new hampshire, though? >> no, if she doesn't win next week, it's over. donald trump's the nominee. >> but even if she wins new hampshire? >> after that it's perilous territory because there's no state like new hampshire there rest of the way.

so i think that's probably the highlight and then she gets drilled in her home state and loses badly on super tuesday, but at least she lives to fight another day and see how trump deals with the loss, he won't deal with it well. but, listen, let's get down to math. for her to win new hampshire maybe you get 6 to 8% and other candidates get some. could she get 44% to 46% of the vote, maybe? she can't get 50. so i think it'll be close. this week matters, too. this is like an hour-to-hour thing in new hampshire having been throughout the before, and so it's also how she performs, and the spotlight's not always been her friend, and trump's going to lay a bunch of land mines, no question about that. yes, the gift if she wins new hampshire is you're probably going to get clobbered everywhere else. if she doesn't win new hampshire, if i were donald trump next week, she's clearly eager for it to be over and it will be over.

if i were him i wouldn't go to a single primary state. whatever desantis and nikki do they'll be like spectral figures running around that the country that no one cares. >> he was pretty low energy tonight. >> he was like the fox news town hall of last week energy, which maybe was strategic. >> maybe, i don't know. he might just be tired. >> i think age has caught up with him. the reality, though, i mean to david's point, what's the point? i mean this is a presidential -- >> you're not as bullish as nikki haley winning new hampshire as others. >> no, i think donald trump wins it. in fact, i think donald trump gets close to 50% of the vote in new hampshire. and i think people just need to be realistic about whose party this is. people want to run a race that doesn't exist, and you just need to stop it and recognize the facts. i mean i don't know, what do i know? i was a county chairman, a state

chairman, a national chairman. i think i know a little bit how the party works internally. >> and that party has changed --. >> and that party has changed a lot. i've been a part of it. i've been in that room. i know these folks, i know them well. and they are committed. and they're committed to the guy who is right now silting here with over 50% coming out of iowa, going into new hampshire. how much steam do you think he loses when he gets to new hampshire? how much steam do you think he loses when he gets to south carolina and nevada? >> and if he thinks he's losing steam, he's going to burkter her more, so i think we can all prepare ourselves for that. >> i get everybody wants to put this in the traditional presidential race box, and this has not been a traditional presidential race since 2016, but we need to stop looking at

it that way and understand the guy who represents an existential threat to this country to your point is about to become the nominee of my party. that concerns me, and i don't see nikki haley, i don't see anybody else stopping that from happening. >> we're going to dig into all the entry polls. hold your thought because we're going to come back after a very, very quick break. we've got to sneak it in. everyone is stick around. we're going to keep digging into the numbers including the entry polls which do display a lot of what you're talking about. so everyone stick with us, we'll be right back. g about. so everyone stick with us, we'll be right back. i'm jonathan lawson, here to tell you about life insurance through the colonial penn program. if you're age 50 to 85 and looking to buy life insurance on a fixed budget, remember the three p's. what are the three p's? the three p's of life insurance on a fixed budget are price, price, and price. a price you can afford, a price that can't increase, and a price that fits your budget.

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donald trump's victory in

iowa tonight was thanks in large part to some key demographic groups that make up the maga base, no surprise. that includes white ejan gelical christians who didn't exactly love him back in 2016, but they represented more than half of the total electorate tonight. trump won 53% of that group. like wise more than half of all caucus goers describe themselves as conservative. and among them 61% voted for trump. given those numbers, it's not that surprising trump won by such a wide margin tonight. what's more surprising is that trump also edged out his republican rivals among caucus goers with a college degree and aul won among caucus goers who identified independence. electability turned out at least in these entry polls to be a fairly low priority issue for caucus goers. 41% of caucus goers said a candidate that shares their values is the most important quality in deciding their vote and just 14% of a candidate

ability to win in november mattered most to them. these are impauvg entry polls, and polls are generally imperfect, but some of this stuff is pretty interesting including some stutestics i mentioned earlier which is about two-thirds of caucus goers don't think joe biden was elected president as the duly elected president and about two-thirds of them would be fine if trump was a convicted felon. so those are the ones that stuck out to me as well. but what did we learn? did we learn anything about demographics in iowa? anything that surprised you about those numbers? >> well, the folks not believing biden is legitimate, i'm surprised it's that low. it's what they hear every day. >> who are the other people? >> i'm surprised it wasn't like 80. his support is deep, it's geographic, it's demographic, education, income, it's ideology. so new hampshire is the one place maybe that could get upset

a little bit maybe because of the nature of the electorate there. you would think in most states trump would be in favor to do what he did in iowa tonight. >> first of all what it means to be an evangelical is another question i hope somebody writes another big story about. but evangelicals they didn't change -- trump didn't change to shape himself to them. they essentially changed to shape themselves to him. >> right, and the path to beating trump back in '16 was you want to get the most devout evangelicals because they were suspect of it, and they you want to add on top of that my people and hopefully you can put together a coalition as is the theory of the case for rubio. but that's only gotten a lot worse because the evangelicals

when trump wins iowa the most evangelical part of the country the deep south overwhelmingly and with no competition. that coalition within the republican party is gone now, and you cannot win a republican primary with just that latter half, the suburban republicans. and even in that coalition trump wins. it says he's winning in college educated, but even if you don't trust the college entrance polls, he won des moines county. >> where there was recently a shooting, by the way, where trump said let's move forward and people supported him there. >> i mean the fundamental truth has been this whole primary is that republicans are not looking for an alternative to donald trump. and they -- and it's very unusual for someone who's been in the office before to run again, so he's basically an incumbent running. and if 50 -- it's always been the case since desantis had that

window early on in november of '22, but since that time it's been the case that trump has had a majority of the party and you can't win without his supporters, and there's just never been -- no one's ever been able to articulate a reason to have people coming their way without losing -- >> this is not like a stellar group of -- this is not -- there's not like, wow, what a really great natural athlete we have -- >> not a superstar set of candidates. it's very cultural, though, which is my other take away. we do have to sneak in a quick break. everyone is staying put because we've got a whole other full hour of coverage coming up. lots of careen. stay with us. we'll be right back. careen stay with us we'll be right back.

we're going to make america great again. iowa, we love you. you just go out and buy larger tractors and more land. don't worry about it. >> we thank you for your