>> folks, that does it for the weekend. it's sunday morning. we'll see you here bright and early saturday at 8 am eastern. be sure to follow the show on social media at the weekend msnbc. don't forget, on tuesday, rachel maddow will lead special coverage of the new hampshire primary, kornacki will also be there to break down the results on the big board. that starts tuesday at six pm eastern, only on msnbc. velshi, though, starts right now. hey, ali. looking forward to your interviews. >> thank you. i think we have t-shirts made that says, maybe it's the talent. i thought that was a good option. i was trying to prep for my show and you said that. i will, say speaking of the talent, there's a whole lot of it on the weekends. i love the show. it feels a little squished to me, want to hear and do it? i have a nice big studio. >> trying to get us a bigger table, ali. you can have my table, you are welcome, here i would love nothing more than to see you

all in person. you have a great, weekend it's a busy week so i'm sure we'll be talking during the week. see you, guys. >> velshi, starts now. good morning. it's sunday, january the 21st. i'm ali velshi. we're two days away from the very first primary of the season. and perhaps, two days away from donald trump so in up the republican nomination in record time. the former president, who's been twice impeached and currently faces 91 criminal charges, appears headed for another easy victory and tuesday's primary. with all the legal troubles he still has a head of him this year, he is looking to shut down the primaries as soon as possible. new hampshire is nikki haley's hail mary moment. she has been gaining ground on trump in recent weeks, it appears to be too little, too late. while polls out of new hampshire have been historically volatile, no signs have emerged that haley will get the surge of support that she truly needs to boost her

chances. even if she did pull off a miracle upset, there is no path forward for her beyond to new hampshire anyway. the fact that is on full display this weekend, as donald trump gathers up endorsements from the next primary states. halle's own home state of south carolina, which pools indicate she is expected to lose by a margin of double digits. trump was joined in new hampshire yesterday by a who's who of south carolina republican political figures, including the states current governor, henry mcmaster. that is in addition to the south carolina senator, tim scott, endorsing trump on friday. scott was appointed to the senate by nikki haley herself. since iowa, and despite trump's literally historic margin of victory there, haley has tried to pivot the conversation to make this seem like it's a two-person race. she is right. but they two people in this race are joe biden and donald trump. virtually, all signs indicate that the two of them will be facing off again and the general election this november.

high-ranking republicans like -- have begun calling for haley and desantis to drop out of the race. although she is not an entirely disinterested party in this conversation, she might want to be trump's running mate. meanwhile, the biden campaign has already operated on to the assumption that trump will be their opponent this year. a spokesman for the campaign told the new york times last week, quote, the president los forward to spending the next ten months reminding the american people how dangerous donald trump and his maga agenda are. and quote. the biden campaign are getting some help on that front from none other than donald trump himself. the former president continues his authoritarian tendencies on the campaign trail as he last week -- >> there is a great man, a great leader in europe, viktor orban, he is the, he's the prime minister of hungary. he is a great leader, very strong man. some people don't like him

because he's too strong. they have a strongman running the country. >> donald trump doesn't say these things by accident. he is running for office again to avoid going to jail. the question now is what must democrats and americans and general do to prevent an anti-democratic demagogue from seizing power again. there are some early signs of trouble for biden, support for him has waned in recent months, especially amongst black voters and young progressives. the good news is, democrats, the election is ten months away. there is time to shore up support, and they have some winning issues on their side. this, week biden's campaign will sharpen its focus on abortion rights to coincide with the annivearof roe v. wade. they are also continues to b good news about the economy with the s&p 500 setting a new record high last week on unemployment at historic lows, wages increases, and consumer sentiment increasing dramatically. all things that the campaign can and should highlights and the months ahead. in contrast, we might see trump in court more often than on the campaign trail with his

criminal trial set to begin as early as march. still, many of the hypothetical head to head surveys between trump and biden showed them pulling within the margin of error. essentially, a dead heat. one year from today, a new presidential term will have just begun. the man in the white house warning that administration will be the one who is able to coalesce support from the different factions of his party, get them to turn out and vote. this november. joining me is frank lance, a veteran pollster and consultant, also with us as a former gop strategist, rick wilson. he is cofounder of the lincoln project an author of the book, running against the devil. a plot to save america from democrats. and democrats, from themselves. gentlemen, good to see you both. thanks for being with us. frank, you're in the cold. at new hampshire, right now, you have attended some trump rallies. lately, i think you are at the rally last night. yesterday morning, i had an interesting conversation with mckay coppins of the atlantic, he actually proposed that non-trump supporters should go to a trump rally to experience

what the atmosphere is like, to hear trump speak, to witness the forever that he elicits from his supporters. you have this unique perspective because you speak to republicans and close environments, and focus groups, and you speak to them and things like the trump rallies. what have you seen as it relates to donald trump as a almost messianic figure in this election? >> you, know i can't disagree with the way that you are describing him. the level of intensity, the passion of these trump voters is so strong. they literally, they word on their sleeves. they've got the shirts, jackets, trump hats. more than any other candidate. and, fact that is why i would be very surprised if donald trump doesn't win on tuesday. every single one of his voters can't wait to vote. i've got to be honest with you, candid with you, the feeding him with joe biden is going to be more and more difficult, because trump's vote is going to be there, and i'm not as

convinced, and you did mention latinos, which i think is going to be the critical voting group in 2024. they've moved away from the president. they move towards donald trump. that is where the battleground is going to happen. and every state that matters, the latino vote can be the difference in winning and losing. >> rick, let me ask you about that. there is that, question the reason we're having this conversation is the degree to which donald trump, not looking, like not rhonda scent, it's not anybody else who ran against him, has a influence on his followers that is not diminished by the crazy things he says, the dictatorial things he says, by the fact that he is charged with step. his supporters don't want to hear it from the three of us or anyone else. that they should be making other choices. joe biden, as a normal, efficient, effective president, is not eliciting that response and the groups that frank and i are talking about. among some latinos, among some african americans, among some progressives.

what is the solution to that? how do you make people who don't like what donald trump is doing, what joe biden is doing on some issues, understand that this is a binary fight come november? >> i do think among progressives and younger voters right now, they are making one of those enemy of the goods arguments into a political liability for the presidents. i do think that will start to clarify as we move closer to the election and their objections to joe biden will see more like a political luxury as trump, as trump solidifies his base and the party, and as trump solidifies his position vis-à-vis -- i do think there are some things that will help a little bit, or maybe a lot, with african americans and with latino voters as they go forward. there is a leg, generally speaking, and the economy. as my colleague joe trippy always talks about, it takes 3 to 7 months for the economy, good news on the economy to percolate up. i also think that steve bannon

is heavily inflicted to trump's belief system of i have no enemies to my right. there are a lot of people who will be feeling very confident about bringing back that sort of white replacement theory that's alt-right message that surrounds trump. even if he is not the only one doing, that even though he does the vermin talk and things like that, i think you will see a very cautionary field around some of those groups as we go forward into the real heart of the fight. >> as someone who talks to these people, who will continue to be committed to donald trump, what is the message to them? i'm not talking about people like those who are rally goers, like those who are of donald trump supporters who are not going to have their mind changed. i think most people, conservatives and liberals, have said that is a fools game. but there are a lot of other people. there is more than enough people for donald trump to win this election, and for joe biden to win this election. they are not die hard donald trump supporters. what is the message to the rest

of them who don't love joe biden, but need to understand the actual threats of donald trump. not just donald trump, by the way, as you know, it is a movement that donald trump happens to be at the head of. >> there are three attributes. number one -- >> week, we'll go to you on that. >> we have talked to a group of model voters, seven to 11% of the population inside the republican voting pool. they are either anti trump, or soft trump, or can be persuaded to at least not pulled a ticket for either direction. those people tend to be more suburban, affluent, educated. they tend to have children. they don't like the, they don't like the chaos of trump. they don't like the vulgarity of trump. they don't like the conspiracy theories. they don't like the violence. they don't like the evangelical aura around trump now where he has been made into a god by the

maga hard-core. they are also driven by dobbs to a great degree. there has always been an undercurrent, especially among female republicans, that is not as rigidly pro-life as the dobbs decision, and all the things they have seen from republican state legislatures since then. >> frank, let me ask you the same question. again, i think we're mostly convinced that this is not going to be a hand-to-hand battle with trump supporters. that is, i don't know if you agree with me, that train has left the station. what about everybody else? >> three words. three attributes. number one is results. they want him to come in and can actually make a meaningful, measurable difference and the day-to-day quality of life of who they are, where they left, their communities. number two, they're looking for a detailed plan of action. they're not going to read it. they're not going to follow it. they want to believe that the next president has a specific

idea of where things need to go. number three, they don't want ideology. i know this is going to disagree with so many of your viewers, but they really want common sense. they want someone who doesn't change left to right, doesn't choose republican or democrat, they want someone who gets the job done in a smart, intelligence, affective way. the challenge, again, i say this to viewers, because i know you care about this so much, is i do believe there's going to be a third party. i believe it's not going to be a binary choice. what you can see happening is that all those people in the center, 20, 25, even 30%, will search for another alternative to trump and to biden. that is something that we need to start to consider, even now in january 2024. >> rick wilson, he was a little bit when frank said that. >> look, the only outcome of a third party, especially in the know later side of the equation, is donald trump is elected again. those voters are modeling, they look a lot like soft amok rats, soft republicans.

they will, if you end up in a position like arizona, for instance, where no labels gets on the ballot and pulls a certain non trivial percentage of people, you're going to end up with donald trump holding the line, and winning the election, because the electoral college structure of the country. there are a lot of people who are fans of rfk. he draws a little bit away from republican voters because, away from trump, because of all the insanity, conspiracy theories, anti vax staff. what we're looking at and a third party, the outcome, it's inevitably that they cannot win 270 electoral college votes, but they can spoil the election for donald trump. >> frank. >> that is actually not correct. we have done the same kind of work, and if the candidate toward joe manchin, he actually draws more votes away from the republican because he is such a conservative democrats. in the end, we all have to be in support of democracy. and the, and we all have to be in support of allowing people, allowing people to vote for the

candidate that they want. i am so afraid. i'm doing everything i can and entities like this to say, let's stop voting for the candidates that we dislike the least, and let's start voting for candidates that we actually wants to solve the challenges that we face and day to day life. let's be positive, not negative. let's not territory they're apart. please, i do believe that 2024, our democracy, i agree with joe biden on this, our democracy is at stake. but it's going to get worse if we continue to polarize and vote for negativity. >> where, at the u.n. the lincoln project had thought about, that the joe manchin no labels, third party run. your take? >> look, i believe that joe manchin is out of the game for labels right now. the looking at other folks in that area. we believe that they tend to draw more conservative democrats in our polling and modeling, and frank and i can disagree on this. i don't believe that in an election where we all agree

that donald trump is backed by an authoritarian movements, and that donald trump is a fundamentally and small d democratic person, who does not believe and the constitution, who will call on the american republic, who comes and to the election with tremendous advantages. for me, right now, i love the idea of a third party, a broader party system. but like st. augustine said, this is a moment where we are in a fight between joe biden and donald, trump everything else is a distraction, everyone else puts this country at risk. if we believe the luxury good of imagining that a third party could win 270 electoral college votes, which has never happened, and will not happen in our lifetime, given the two party system, we are not going to be in a state where we have a lovely third-party imaginary candidates, we're going to be in this position where steve bannon, stephen miller, and donald trump, are running an authoritarian government of washington d.c., and america will not look like anything we

recognize. >> guys, i love the disagreements. i respect you both about, it i can see frank still nodding. but you know what? you both are friends of the show, so you're welcome here all the time. and i have to give it to rick on one thing, a good st. augustine reference on sunday morning. so i appreciate that. frank, stay warm. i think i'm gonna see one person in fe weeks right here in new york. so i appreciate you both. thank you. franklin's is a republican pollster and strategist and he's the author of words that work. rick wilson is a former gop strategist, cofounder of the lincoln project and author of running against the devil, a plot to save america from trump and democrats from themselves. coming up, senator chris van hollen joins me to discuss the latest in the israel gaza war and the growing divisions between the u.s. and the israeli government. plus, the gop got walloped in michigan and pennsylvania in the 2022 midterms, but their respective strategies for 2024 could not be more different. also, ron desantis has canceled his sunday morning tv rounds for the day, while nikki haley picked up a big endorsement.

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by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. >> i want to go back to new hampshire, where the first primary of 2024 is two days away. ron desantis is in new hampshire today, after he canceled appearances on multiple sunday morning political tv shows. a new survey from nbc boston globe -- and d.c. boston and the boston globe shows this morning that the florida governor is polling at 6% in the state, far behind both donald trump and nikki haley, who were at 55 and 36%, respectively. meanwhile, haley's been sharpening her attacks against donald trump, recently questioning his mental fitness after he mixed her up with another high-profile politician at a campaign rally. joining me now from manchester new hampshire is nbc's ali vitali. good to see you this morning. tell me about donald trump, what he said, and now how nikki

haley is presenting it, and what reaction that's going to get. >> this is a critical moment, i think, because donald trump left himself open for nikki haley to start saying the quiet part out loud. she'd been previously trying to tie him to president joe biden, basically making the age argument, but the comments that he made during a recent rally, during what we heard him do all the time about nancy pelosi and security on january 6th. instead we heard him say nikki haley's name in lieu of pelosi's. he didn't seem to correct himself, he didn't seem to notice. and i think that was a moment where nikki haley was able to start saying this, and then listen to how trump supporter elise stefanik defended it to me yesterday. watch. >> they're saying it got confused. that he was talking about something else. he was talking about nancy pelosi. you mentioned be multiple times in that scenario. the concern i have is, i'm not saying anything derogatory but. when you're dealing with the pressures of a presidency?

we can't have someone else that we question, whether they're mentally fit to do this. we can't. >> that isn't a mix up. the reality is nikki haley is relying on democrats, just like nancy pelosi to try to have a desperate showing in new hampshire. >> but he was talking about january 6th. >> he has not lost his step, he's a stronger candidate, stronger than he is today, that he was in 2016, and he was in 2020. compare that to joe biden's weakness. >> ali, some spinning gymnastics there from belize stefanik as she tried to say trump didn't misspeak, as he clearly misspoke. and i do think that it's a real -- mark of where this race is going and why nikki feels that her generational change argument might be one that doesn't fall on deaf ears here in new hampshire, or down the line in south carolina, or even nevada. that being said, you look at polls like the one you just put on the screen, you look at the trend line that we've seen over

the course of the last few weeks, there was a point where some polls did have nikki haley within striking distance of the former president. but polls like the ones we've seen since i what don't tell that story. now, all the usual caveats apply. new hampshire is notoriously difficult to pull. in part because it's hard to forecast what kinds of voters actually come out. trump, of course, is consolidating republicans. i was listening to the conversation you guys were having with rick wilson, just before this. i think all of that is right, and he certainly knows and understands the possible concern of voters. but nikki haley is really trying to make -- not just with conservative voters, but with independents. i know that there's a line that's being put out right now that democrats are going to be the ones to vote for nikki haley. any democrat who would've wanted to do that would've had to change their voter registration last year. that moment has passed. i've met those people, there are now under claire voters. but that's just how it goes here in new hampshire. >> i'm glad you said, that because i was going to ask you that. the deal, ali, is that anytime

you're available somewhere where i'm on tv, i want you to be on the show. because this is just developing what we call like a demo reel, a sizzle reel, for our bosses, for the alleviations. >> this is important. >> but there was a motivation on my part, with that hot that you wear. and it's gone. is it just warm? is that the issue? because that was a fun hat. >> my stripe top from yesterday, or my other pom-pom hut? >> the pom-pom had. that's an excellent hut. >> you've got to bring a pom-pom had if you're going to be cold, and i thought that for a demo reel it would be good, or that people would find it so detestable that they wouldn't put me out in the cold again, which is also a fine day for that to be the case. >> it will work for the time a real, no one's going to put you out, they're gonna put you out whenever the weather is. nbc's ali vitali in manchester new hampshire, you'll be seeing her a lot over the next coming days. coming, up there was another strike by iranian-backed militants on a u.s. airbase in iraq. this what's reportedly the most serious and successful of

roughly 140 rocket, missile, and drone attacks that iranian-backed militants have conducted against u.s. troops in iraq and syria since the israel hamas war started. after the break, i'll talk to a member of the senate foreign relations committee, chris van hollen, about what needs to be done to prevent the slowly creeping conflict from becoming an all out war in the region. and growing divisions between the u.s. and the israeli government. that's next, on velshi. government that's next, on velshi that's next, on velshi with nurtec odt, i can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. ask about nurtec odt.

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from breaking your momentum. you may have already been vaccinated against the flu, but don't forget this season's updated covid-19 shot too. ( ♪ ♪ ) start your day with nature made. the #1 pharmacist recommended vitamin and supplement brand. >> it's day 107 of the israel-hamas war, and the death toll in gaza has this morning surpassed 25,000. after 15 weeks of war, american lawmakers are growing frustrated with israel's far-right prime minister benjamin netanyahu. on thursday, in tel aviv, netanyahu gave a press conference in which he ruled out the idea of a palestinian state. but on friday, president biden spoke to him on the phone and puzzling louis, told reporters

that a two state solution remains a possibility, even with netanyahu in power. netanyahu made clear where he stands, in a post in hebrew on x, translated by the social media site, saying, quote, i will not compromise on full israeli security control of the entire area west of jordan, and this is contrary to a palestinian state. that, by the way, is an important thing for us to remember. it's the israeli version of the much derided from the river to the sea idea. no place for two separate independent states between the jordan river and the mediterranean. it was a comment for which congresswoman proceeded to lead was censored, and what critics call antisemitic one uttered by people who support palestinian self-determination. and that dissonance between the u.s. government and the leader of one of our strongest allies is troubling in increasing number of american lawmakers. nbc news reported saturday that pro israel lawmakers on both sides of the aisle in america are losing confidence in netanyahu's ability to end this

war, or even whether he wants to end the war. the house republican lawmakers speaking anonymously to scott -- -- it's really hard to defend bibi or to justify his political strategy and all this. any type of cease-fire or peace agreement, rebuilding effort, or off-ramp, is detrimental for him politically, and i think that factors in on what he's doing, and quote. president biden is signed off on military aid for israel -- but some lawmakers feel that time is right if not overdo to address americas unconditional military aid to israel. a resolution by senator bernie sanders that would tie military aid to israel to human rights report conducted by the state department was voted down 72 to 11 on tuesday, but after netanyahu ruled on a two-state solution twice in a matterf days, sanders released a statement saying, quote, president biden must now loudly and clearly say no to the policies of netanyahu's right-wing extremist government.

there must be no more u.s. military aid to israel to continue netanyahu's war, and quote. appetite is growing for some sort of guardrails on the money that the u.s. sends to israel, but like most things in congress, that remains an uphill battle. joining me now is the democratic senator chris van hollen of maryland. he's a member of the senate foreign relations committee. he has visited the rafah border crossing between gaza and egypt, just a few weeks ago. senator, thank you for being with us. again, we appreciate it. i don't know how many ways to say this. the u.s. government and israel's government are not seeing eye to eye on how to or whether israel should end the war. despite being pressed on by both secretary blinken and president biden this week, netanyahu gave a news conference on thursday in which he said, quote, i will not compromise on full israeli control over the entire area west of jordan, and this is contrary to a palestinian state. that's a problem. >> ali, it's a very big problem.

you have prime minister netanyahu again, directly and publicly rebuffing the president of the united states. and this is part of a pattern. the united states has requested repeatedly that the netanyahu coalition reduce the huge number of civilian casualties in gaza. they're going up, two thirds of the dead women and children. you have a humanitarian catastrophe going from terrible to worse. and you have a prime minister who clearly is not prioritizing the return of the hostages. he is putting his own political skin above the hostages. so, it seems to me that it is time that we have a cease-fire. a return of the hostages, and president biden needs to go big and bold. he needs to put forward that vision of a two-state solution. it is the only way to create some light at the end of this

very dark tunnel. to provide the security that will prevent future october 7th, and to provide self determination, and dignity, to all the palestinian people who have nothing to do with hamas in a state of their own. that needs to be the goal of the united states. >> look, what we continue to hear from the u.s. administration and from the israelis, and it's not wrong, is that this war could and if hamas released the hostages. it is a war crime to have taken them and have done what they did on october 7th. but when you think about prioritizing the hostages, the hostage families and yeah yeah lapid, who is an opposition leader who's part of this government, has said, we would support anything, including a cease-fire, if it gets the hostages out. and most israelis view that you deal with hamas how you need to deal with hamas at a later point. but you can get the hostages out through a negotiated settlement that might involve a cease fire. >> well that's exactly right. that's what so many of the hostages families are saying,

that's what people in israel are saying, which is why i say it is time for the cease-fire and to release the hostages, and it's very clear that prime minister netanyahu knows that his political days are numbered once this conflict comes to an end. so, he does have an incentive to keep it going. he has an incentive to get in this fight, apparently, with the president of the united states of america. obviously netanyahu sees that in his interest. which is why i think president biden needs to take advantage of the fact that within israel, president biden is much more popular than prime minister netanyahu. and we need to put, the president of the united states, needs to put this vision forward, to provide this light at the end of the tunnel. president biden has said we need a two-state solution, netanyahu has slapped it down, let's take that argument to people throughout the region. this is really the last chance,

the last gasp for a viable two-state solution. >> there's a weird circumstance in which this tragedy could actually lead to something that has been needed for a long time. but here's the rub. netanyahu is out there giving speeches about how he's the one who can stand between america and netanyahu in the israeli people. that's a perfectly fine view for a sovereign country to take. except for the fact that israel is a recipient of a lot of u.s. aid. in november, you wrote a letter to president biden, signed by 26 other senate democrats, who seek more information on how israel is conducting its war in gaza. in december, you pursued an amendment that would require any country that received u.s. aid, and there are many, to operate, quote, in accordance with international law, including international humanitarian law, and the law of armed conflict. right before the new year, again, this administration approved more military aid to israel, without congressional approval. what do you do now? >> well, ali, you're absolutely

right. the biden administration is sending mixed signals. on the one hand, it goes to israel and says please reduce the number of civilian casualties, and at the same moment, it uses a procedure to bypass the united states senate in order to rush more weapons more quickly, including many of the weapons that have this huge impact in terms of more civilians killed. so what i propose, along with now up to 18 members of the senate, my colleagues, it is a proposal which as you say, applies equally to all recipients of the u.s. military assistance. it requires that every recipient comply with international humanitarian law. there should not be something controversial. it requires that every recipient cooperates with u.s. efforts to provide humanitarian assistance in the conflict zones, where u.s. weapons that they purchased are being used. that would apply to ukraine, it

would apply to israel. and, importantly, it requires reporting so that we have transparency and accountability with respect to those first two. >> senator, always good to talk to you. thank you for taking the time for us this morning. democratic senator chris van hollen of maryland. coming up, a tale of two republican parties. that's next, on velshi. parties that's next, on velshi that's next, on velshi have heart failure with unresolved symptoms? it may be time to see the bigger picture. heart failure and seemingly unrelated symptoms like carpal tunnel syndrome, shortness of breath, and irregular heartbeat could mean something more serious, called attr-cm a rare, underdiagnosed disease that worsens over time. sound like you? call your cardiologist and ask about attr-cm. (christina) with verizon business unlimited, i get 5g, truly unlimited data, and unlimited hotspot data. sound like you? so, no matter what, i'm running this kitchen.

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but when the elections came about, the republican parties in both states shared something else. defeat. republicans lost every contested statewide office in michigan and pennsylvania, and had to hand over control of long held branches of state legislatures to democrats. leaders of said failing party might walk away from that experience with a few lessons learned. ready to gear up for the next election cycle. but this is where pennsylvania and michigan's similarities and for now. in pennsylvania, the gop is making a visible effort to clean up the chaos 2022 left behind. republicans in -- to take more active role in primaries to make sure they don't end up with another statewide nominee outside of the parties mainstream, like the 2022 -- and vocal conspiracy theorist, doug mastriano. lucky for them, 2022's mainstream candidate still has's eye on the prize. businessman david mccormack, who's wife served in the trump administration, nearly lost the senate primary to mehmet oz

after trump endorsed oz at the last minute. but mccormick is running for the senate seat again. and if he makes a pass the primary, which is possible, he will face off in the general election against the democratic senator bob casey, who is still gonna be an uphill battle for mccormick. mccormick has been to rack up endorsements from the state republican party and the entirety of the states congressional delegation. mccormick, who is independently wealthy, raised five point $4 million in campaign funding in his first quarter as a candidate, a sign that republican donors like his chances. michigan, on the other hand, is not demonstrating such party unity. republicans are in the middle of a vicious fight over the potential ouster of the state party chair, kristina karamo. her alma lost her bid for secretary of state in 2022, after using her campaign to spread the big lie on donald trump's behalf, and so distrust in american elections. this tale of two state republican parties is important because the state of the gop in these two crucial swing states

could directly affect upcoming and competitive senate races, and the presidential election. joining me now, nick corasaniti, reporter for the new york times, covering national politics, voting, and democracy, who's written about the state of michigan's republican party. also with us is charlie dent, former republican congressman for the state of pennsylvania. welcome, to both of you. nick, i didn't know you are in new hampshire, but that very much looks like our camera in new hampshire. so good to see you, my friend. i want to start with you, because the pennsylvania story is a little easier to understand for normal folks. the michigan story is black. >> to understand michigan, we have to take a couple steps back. so, when donald trump first came onto the scene, and was successfully elected in 2016, that ushered in a new wave of activists at very local levels. we're talking precincts, local wards, and those people became low level officials and state parties. so state parties at the very grassroots level began to transform in former president

trump's image. so if you take michigan, that meant that a lot of people who believe the 2020 election was stolen now hide voting power in conventions to nominate state party officials. so if we fast forward to after the 2022 election, when michigan democrats swept victory, a lot of those activists weren't townsend, they were energized. and they said we need to double down. so they went and they elected christina karamo, who refused to consider lost by more than 14 points, and is a big, big proponents of the big lie. so, that party then went down this path for the. and they stuck to lies about the 2020 election, as their most important issue. now, that's great divisions, they've lost money, big donors like the devices in michigan -- and the parties effectively bankrupt. they'd like to give up their headquarters and their longtime big building in michigan. they've had division, and all those financial difficulties

have led to frosty reactions and divisions even within these activists now. so there is gonna vote, last month, to oust christina camo by a breakaway fashion of the state party. and they actually voted to vote her out. now, karamo is saying that was illegitimate. so what we're having is a divided party with two people claiming to be chairs, lawsuits followed all over the place, and the party pretty much in chaos. >> the irony of course, is that kristina crumble calls votes illegitimate all the, time so it's on brand for her. charlie, the distinction in pennsylvania is that we, to this point, these folks, the sort of big lie conspiracy theorists, kind of wrecked the infrastructure of the michigan republican party. that didn't happen in pennsylvania. there were just some conspiracy theory candidates outside of the mainstream who are running, who might have an is your time of getting republicans back into the fold in pennsylvania. is that a fair take? >> well, i do think the infrastructure involved in the party in pennsylvania took a very serious hit.

particularly with trump denouncing voting, republicans are way behind there. but clearly pennsylvania is much more united, much more united than michigan, which is utterly dysfunctional. and it has been. i think pennsylvania learned a hard lesson after 2022. i was one of the folks saying at the time, when -- was running for governor, the road probably about 12 republicans running for governor. and the state gop did nothing to condition the field. in other words, they were playing switzerland. they did want to put their thumb on the scale, have been forbid. that didn't stop donald trump from putting his big backside on the scale, and we got mastriano and the disaster that followed. this time, republican party is returning to something closer to normalcy, bye engaging in primaries, trying to condition the field, trying to clear the field for mccormick. which i think they've done fairly successfully. again, what's going to happen in pennsylvania and michigan, though, is that the outcomes of these races are not gonna be

driven as much by the presidential race as republican candidates themselves. so that's the other thing we have to watch. if trump's the nominee, he's got nothing but defeat in pennsylvania since he was elected in 2016. people are hoping he'll do better, polls are suggesting that today, but we have a long way between now and november. >> guys, stick around. i want to take a quick break, i'm gonna come back with nic corsini and charlie dent. we will continue right after this. s and prevent migraine attacks, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. ask about nurtec odt. [sfx: game controller] when occasional heartburn won't let you sleep. [sfx: game controller] get fast relief with tums+ heartburn + sleep support. love food back and fall asleep faster. ♪ tums tums tums tums ♪ you always got your mind on the green. not you. you! your business bank account with quickbooks money now earns 5% apy.

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report of the new york times covering politics, voting, and democracy, and charlie dent, former republican congressman for the state of pennsylvania. we're talking about the distinction's from michigan and pennsylvania, both key states to winning the presidency and control of the senate. nick, last election there were some very specific things going on in the midterms. abortion was central, because there was an abortion question on the ballot in which abortion rights were in trying. there was of course the big lie, now there is an added complication in michigan and that is it's home to the largest arab american and muslim population in the united states. many of whom have expressed dissatisfaction with the way joe biden has dealt with the war in gaza. that presents an opportunity for michigan republicans, although i don't know -- i can't sense that they are organized enough to take advantage of most

opportunities. >> the way the michigan republican party is right now is not organized at all. they're at war with themselves. and that could actually have a big impact on the 2024 election, both for senate, for down-ballot, and indeed, for president. because i was talking to the former executive director of the party, and he said that state parties are kind of the front of volunteers that are necessary to power a successful campaign. that's where you get your canvassers, your dornoch or,'s your people who get in phone banks. they do a lot of the run or that helps get out the vote, that helps raise money, and helps to spread the message. they also have an interesting financial advantage in michigan. they get a much cheaper rate on mail. and mail still plays a very important role in politics. just ask anyone here in new hampshire, their mailboxes are full, 68 pieces of mail today, talking about the candidates, where they should vote, how they have to go vote. so with the party in such disarray in michigan, they're not going to be able to organize around what is becoming increasingly a swing

state. you mentioned what happened in israel, but just looking at polling, biden is surprisingly more popular in michigan, despite them winning every statewide election in 2022, and having one of the more popular governors in the country, governor gretchen whitmer, who won by more than ten points in a swing state. so there is opportunity for republicans in michigan, yet the state party is just not able to capitalize on that. and national republicans are starting to take notice. the nrcc sent a letter over the weekend to the state party, asking them exactly what they are doing, and are their finances in order. so it certainly shaping up to be that the state party could be a drag on republicans in 2024. >> charlie, i'm curious as to what sort of all the union stuff last year, particularly with biden showing up on picket lines, may do for joe biden's own popularity in michigan. he certainly more popular in pennsylvania. let's go back to this conversation of david mccormack. he was the ruerp in the 2022 prince of any state

primary. he's raised five point $4 million in his firster as a 2024 candidates. bob cwho's from ida family with a sorry name in pennsylvania politics, raised 3.2 million in the third quarter of 2023. ordinarily we'd say that's a big difference, and it might be advantage to mccormick, but it's kind of advantage kasey, in pennsylvania at the moment. >> mccormack is really doing a great job of appealing to what i call the old establishment of pennsylvania republican politics. the people who helped raise the money. he's been very successful and i think in getting the establishment behind him and raising money. of course, senator casey is very formidable. he's been in that job many years now, he's never lost, a great family name. so i think it's very much implied. but we have to continue to talk about the presidential race, because i think we watched over the years that these senate races in swing states often go the same way as the

presidential election. and trump is going to loom very large. and i suspect the biden campaign will try to take a page out of the josh shapiro playbook, and basically all shapiro did was really pound mastriano on abortion, and election denial. and i suspect the biden people may try to do the same thing again on trump. how that would affect mccormick, who did not deny the election. and that's why trump didn't endorse him, because he refused to deny it. but that still could have an impact on down ballot races, including mccormack. >> but there were important republican donors and pennsylvania, charlie, who donated money to josh shapiro. important people said i cannot support doug mastriano, it's too crazy. so mccormick's one advantages that he can draw -- and you're right. i think you're right. in both of these states, the presidential race will probably mirror what goes on in the

senate races, or the mirror what goes in the presidential race. but republicans voted democrat in many cases in pennsylvania in the last election. >> reporter: i was one of them, i voted for josh sapporo over mastriano. and i quickly endorsed shapiro after the primary, because many republicans, a large numbers of republicans who were fairly prominent in part, publicly supported sir shapiro. because mastriano was so unacceptable. mccormick will have that problem, i suspect, with much of the republican establishment that mattresses. so it's a totally different dynamic this time around, a lot of the republican establishment has been very unhappy with donald trump in the last election, for endorsing mastriano and four interesting oz.