congress. it was for mccarthy and has been for johnson. there's a small group of hard line conservatives, really any faction within the party, that could prevent anything from getting done, including a speaker being chosen. if johnson has a slim majority by holds the majority in the house, it is entirely possible he'll have the same upward battle to the speakership because he has detractors and critics within the conference. >> it's hard to see republicans hanging on to the house if harris wins. of course, margin of error race, it's 50/50 there. we shall see what happens in the lower chamber. terrific reporting for us this morning from mychael schnell. congressional reporter for "the hill." we'll see you soon. thank you, all, for getting up "way too early" on this monday morning. "morning joe" starts right now. in springfield, they're eating the dogs. the people that came in, they're eating the cats. [ laughter ] they're eating the pets of the people that live there. >> yeah, that was donald trump accusing haitian immigrants of killing and eating people's

pets. can you even remember a time when something like that would have been disqualifying? because i can't anymore! republicans now elected trump three times. democrats lost to him half the time. this election is still inexplicably close. unfortunately, some americans watched that and thought, i don't like how kamala laughed when he called immigrants dog eaters. that wasn't very presidential. >> wow. >> that sums it up. welcome to "morning joe." it is monday, september 23rd. with us, we have the host of "way too early," white house bureau chief at "politico," jonathan lemire. nbc news national affairs analyst and a partner in chief political columnist at "puck," john heilemann. good to have you with us this morning. we have six weeks to go until election day. there's new nbc news polling out showing a major shift in the 2024 race. in the latest survey, vice president kamala harris leads former president donald trump by

five points, 49% to 44%, among registered voters nationwide. although, that result is within the margin of error, it marks a change from the previous nbc news poll conducted back in july, where trump led president joe biden by two points. since then, harris has nearly doubled biden's lead over trump with women voters, going from 11 points to 21 points. harris' favorability rating has also soared since july, with 48% of voters now saying they view her positively compared to 32% in the last poll. trump's favorability has essentially stayed the same since july with 40% viewing him positively now. despite being the sitting vice president, harris leads trump by nine points when voters were asked, which candidate better represents change? and when asked which candidate

they trust more to handle top issues, trump still leads in most areas, though by smaller margins than in a january poll. voters trust trump by 21 points on immigration, by 9 points on the economy, and by 6 points on handling crime. harris, meanwhile, is trusted more to handle abortion rights by 21 points after biden led by 12 in january. joining us now, nbc news senior political editor mark murray. >> mark, take us through this. these polls are consistent with a lot of other polls that have shown big momentum in kamala harris' direction. of course, there are always outliers. in 2012, we had gallup throughout the race saying that romney was going to beat obama by 11 points. this year, we have "the new york times"/siena poll, which is an outlier. this nbc poll goes with, look, every other poll that shows the

wind at harris' back. why is that? >> joe, you know, our poll ended up showing this is a transformed race. the last time we were in the field was back in july. of course, so much has happened. democrats have a new candidate at the top of the ticket. you've had two presidential conventions, two vice presidential selections, a presidential debate just a couple of weeks ago. our poll shows that this is a changed race. the two things can be true. this can be a changed race where the democrats now have a little bit of wind at their backs, but it also can be very, very close. joe, one of the things when you have kamala harris more popular than donald trump, you end up having democrats leading on our ballot. you end up having democrats with a slight lead in congressional ballot. that looks a whole lot like october of 2020 when joe biden was running against donald trump, the very end of that race according to our poll. as we all know, that turned out to be a very close race. democrats should feel very good

about this poll and a lot of others that are consistent with the findings. also, i think we should also get ready for another, very close election. >> mark, let's dig into some of these numbers here. i was struck by this. harris' favorability jumped 16 points since july, which is the largest increase for any politician in nbc news polling since george w. bush got a surge after 9/11. that speaks how the voters are viewing her differently now. talk about that. also, drill deep for us about certain key voting blocks. how is she fairing in the groups that many people think will decide this election? women, voters of color, and the young voters. >> yeah. jonathan, you know, you mentioned our poll ends up showing that 16-point rise in her favorability. that's larger -- that's the largest since george w. bush after 9/11. when we're talking about a candidate from a major party in a presidential contest, we've never had numbers like that in

our 35-year history of our nbc news poll. so, again, that just shows you how she is transformed, too, since july. of course, her ratings since her vice presidency pretty much mirrored what we ended up seeing from president biden. but her being at the top of the ticket, she is now in a different place, not only than biden was in, but also where donald trump is in popularity. jonathan, when we look at the key voting blocks who have moved in this, it is black voters. it is women. also, importantly, young voters, too. harris is doing better with those groups than joe biden was doing in july, and that's reflected in our overall ballot score. >> mark, it's john heilemann here. we talk a lot about harris' movement here. obviously, the race transformed mostly in terms of her versus joe biden. talk a little about joe biden and whether what we see in these numbers is, again, kind of consistent, as joe said, with

what the other polling, which is that trump seems to kind of had -- if you look at it, the big takeaway is we know where donald trump stand with the electorate. he may have kind of hit a ceiling across a lot of different vectors here. just talk about that. >> you know, john, what our poll has shown over the course of the last two years is how donald trump's ballot number really hasn't changed. it's been in this 45, 46, 47% range. every track we've done going back to 2023. what has moved has been, first, joe biden's numbers, and now we end up having kamala harris. but, john, it is also important to note, again, with all the kind of ups and downs, the changes in our poll, this remains a margin of error contest. but we have seen time and time again where donald trump, you know, that 46, 47% figure, that matched his popular vote in 2016. it matched his popular vote in

2020. it hasn't budged much. it is important to remember in 2016, 46%, 47% became a winning number, particularly in key battleground states, because of the size of the third-party vote. this time around, this is looking a whole lot more like 2020 vote, where the third-party vote is smaller. in key states, you might have to get 50% to be able to win. >> all right. nbc news senior political editor, mark murray, thank you so much. greatly appreciate it. fascinating numbers. john heilemann, mark used the word transformed race, and it certainly is a transformed race. if you, again, look at every poll, almost every poll that's out there except, say, for "the new york times"/siena poll, which, again, is very consistent with where gallup was in 2012, throughout the entire campaign,

saying that mitt romney was going to be the next president of the united states. so you look at the move of all of these polls, and it is transformed. this nbc poll shows us he is doing extremely well. yet, if you talk to both campaigns, they will still tell you this race is, in fact, a tie. are you comfortable saying, okay, it may be a tie, but it is a tie that is definitely leaning harris' way? >> i think i'd put it this way, joe, if you looked at all these numbers and talked to the campaigns, i think you would hear that it is a margin of error race. that's slightly different than a tied race. >> yeah. >> you know, if you played out scenarios, there's -- harris at this point, i would think most people would agree, it was a little over 50% of winning the race. trump is a little under 50%. it's an any given sunday kind of

situation where, you know, no one at this point is comfortable. this is also a national poll, right? the campaigns are not paying attention to polling like this anymore. they are looking at battleground state polling. they're looking at those numbers. i think they all think that all the battle ground states are within the margin of error. i think they would also say, and, jonathan, you probably hear this in your reporting, too, which is, what the harris campaign would say precisely is, we know this is going to be really close, but we would rather play our hand over these next six weeks than their hand, in terms of the money we have, the resources we have on the ground, and the candidate quality we have. we would rather it be us than them, but we understand it is going to be really tight. >> yeah, exactly it. they feel pretty good about where they are. it's a margin of error race. we're hearing from the harris team using the word underdog a lot in the fundraising appeals, trying to motivate democrats. we need you to keep fundraising, volunteering, don't be overconfident. they feel good about her multiple paths to victory, which

is something president biden when he was atop the ticket did not have. he only had the wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. harris can play in the sunbelt. they feel much better about north carolina now, particularly because of the implosion of the republican gubernatorial candidate there, which we'll get to later this morning. one other thing that is striking, though, is how steady donald trump's support has been this year. he certainly hit his ceiling, but he hasn't really fallen any. he is more popular this time around than he was in 2016 or 2020, which is remarkable when you think about it, joe and mika, considering all that he has done in the last eight years. >> yeah. >> but that's where we are right now. both these candidates are about the same place. trend lines, though, even though it's a margin of error race, trend lines do favor harris. that's why her team feels better about where she is heading into these six weeks. but, man, it is going to be close. >> well, the trend lines and just about every poll, except

for one or two outliers, certainly break her way. i want to ask you all, based on your reporting, if you're hearing what i'm hearing. first of all, let's break down the swing states. john heilemann, i'll start with you. this is what i'm hearing right now from the campaigns. michigan, the harris campaign feels good about michigan, wisconsin, north carolina, and nevada. they know north carolina and nevada are still close, but they're feeling good about those states. pennsylvania and georgia, toss-up. it's an absolute toss-up. neither side is going to tell you they're going to win or lose those. right now, the harris campaign would say they have a lot of work to be done in arizona. the trump campaign feeling good about arizona. what are you hearing, john? >> i think that's basically right, joe. there's a -- all of those are basically what i hear. i would also -- the few

amendments i would make, kind of add-ons to those. michigan, of the three blue wall states, is where the harris campaign feels most confident. michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, in descending order. it is now the oldest, most aging and whitest of the three date states, so they worry about the fact the numbers have given her -- they look to the numbers and feel strong, but there's a lot about wisconsin that makes people, of the three blue wall states, that seems a little out of whack. pennsylvania, everyone assumes, will be crazy close, and we won't know the answer until that week after election day probably. and they're not feeling super confident about georgia. i don't know if you mentioned that one. north carolina, obviously, the mark robinson thing is breaking in a way they like. i think arizona, because of that abortion initiative that's on the ballot, though they're not in the strongest position and they do have work to do there, they think they can do the work there because abortion

initiative opens up a pathway that could make arizona good for -- very close and kind of tilting back toward harris' direction again. >> my reporting largely lines up with that. few additional notes. harris team feels best about michigan, which is striking. six months ago, we thought it was the blue wall state slipping away because of the war in gaza and how that might affect the muslim and arab-american population there. that's not been the case. they feel good about michigan. wisconsin, to john's point, they know it's close but they feel they're up a bit. pennsylvania, by far, is the state that keeps democrats up at night. they feel like this is going to be the hardest of those states to win. it is not impossible, but it is difficult for her to get a path to 270 without pennsylvania. they worry about some of those older white voters there. expect to see president biden camp out in pennsylvania in the next couple of weeks, trying to help her get across the finish line. they're also going to need big turnouts in pittsburgh, philadelphia, and the suburbs. north carolina, as noted, they're feeling better about.

georgia they think is more or less a tie. maybe they're down a little, but they recognize it's going to be harder this time around than in 2020. they feel like 2020 got to the democratic calm a little ahead of schedule for georgia. the last two, i'd say this. arizona is the one i think democrats are actually a little disappointed by. they thought because of that abortion measure, they'd be -- they'd have more of a shot there. they're not ruling it out by any means, but that is the one that is the hardest, it looks like, for them. nevada, the polling isn't great for democrats, but there is this belief that, at the end of the day, nevada always looks hard for democrats. at the end, it snaps into place by a point or two. there's some real hope that that could happen again. one more thing. the path to 270 that president biden got and is going to have to get was pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, and then that one vote out of nebraska, the congressional race in omaha, and we're seeing the republicans just six weeks out trying yet again to change the law there so nebraska could be winner-take-all, depriving

democrats of the one vote. there is a sense they likely won't be successful, but that is something to keep an eye on, too. >> of the many challenges for the harris campaign, there are two big, false narratives about vice president kamala harris being pushed by the anti anti-trump universe. some in the mainstream media. one is donald trump might be bad, but harris won't tell the american people where she stands on the issues. the other is the both side-ism when it comes to violent rhetoric. we'll break down both. we'll start with the first false narrative. the but the issues crowd. take a look at how msnbc host of "the 11th hour," stephanie ruhle picked that argument apart on friday night. >> it's not too much to ask kamala, say, are you for palestinian state if hamas is going to run that state? >> okay. >> yes or no? >> let's say you don't like her answer. are you going to vote for donald trump? >> no, i'm not. i just said --

>> kamala harris is not running for perfect. she's running against trump. we have two choices. so there are some things you might not know her answer to. in 2024, unlike 2016 for a lot of the american people, we know exactly what trump will do, who he is, and the kind of threat he is to democracy. >> i don't know -- >> it is unclear to me -- [ applause ] -- how there can be -- >> the problem a lot of people have with kamala is we don't know her answer to anything. okay? >> but you know his answer to everything. >> and that's why i would never vote for him, and people shouldn't vote for him. but people also expect to have some idea of what the program is of the person you're supposed to vote for. you're just not supposed to say, well, you have to vote for y because x is this, that, and the other. let's find out a little bit more. i don't think it is a lot to ask her to sit down for a real interview as opposed to a puff piece in which she describes, like -- [ applause ]

-- her feelings of growing up in oakland. >> i would say to that, when you move to nirvana, give me your real estate broker's number, and i'll be your next-door neighbor. we don't live that. >> that really is. i like brett. like bill maher said, he is a fan of what he reads, but i don't know what universe he lives in. he actually said, we don't know her answer to anything. >> that's not true. >> it's just false. he obviously hasn't been watching the campaign. again, i know you're going to get into this, but compare what she said -- and, again, we can go through the issues -- with donald trump. >> yeah. >> whether it's the rambling answer on child care, whether it was a nonsensical answer during the debate. by the way, she wants to debate again. donald trump doesn't. because he doesn't talk about the issues. he can't talk about the issues. again, there's false equivalency from the anti anti-trump crowd,

and also from the mainstream media. >> served as a senator, as a prosecutor, as an attorney general, and the vice president. she also has a record. >> she has a record. >> something you can compare to trump. last week, los angeles bureau chief wrote a piece, mocking harris for telling her life story in an interview with a local tv station in philadelphia. in response to a question about bringing down prices and making life more affordable for people, he criticized harris for talking about how she was a middle-class kid who grew up in a community of construction workers, nurses and teachers, who were very proud of their lawn. and how her mother saved to buy her family's first house. and paid tribute to a neighbor who became a surrogate parent. she praised the beautiful character of the american people, and only then, after nearly two minutes, he writes, did ms. harris outline her plan. but the vice president has been outlining her plan for weeks.

here are some examples. >> when people work hard and have a dream of buying a home, we should give you the opportunity to be able to do that, which is why a part of my plan is for first-time homeowners, buyers, to have a $25,000 down payment assistance to buy your first home. because people just need -- [ applause ] -- to be able to get their foot in the door, then you'll do the hard work. part of my plan is to give start-up small businesses a $50,000 tax deduction to start up a small business. right now it's $5,000. nobody can start a small business with $5,000. that's part of my plan. because here's the thing, we know that we have a shortage of homes in housing. the cost of housing is too expensive for too many people. we know young families need support to raise their children. i intend on extending a tax cut

for those families of $6,000, which is the largest child tax credit we have given in a long time. so those young families can afford to buy a crib, buy a car seat, buy clothes for their children. we are going to work with the private sector and home builders to increase 3 million homes, increase by 3 million homes by the end of my first term. >> all right. to stephanie's point, you don't like the answer, that wasn't enough for you? what you need to do is compare that to direct questions donald trump has been asked on how he would handle various issues, including bringing down the cost of child care, water conservation in california, and threats to manufacturing in michigan. take a listen. >> can you commit to prioritizing legislation to make child care affordable? and if so, what specific piece of legislation will you advance? >> well, i would do that.

we're sitting down. you know, i was -- somebody, we had senator marco rubio and my daughter, ivanka, were so impactful on that issue. it is a very important issue. but i think when you talk about the kind of numbers i'm talking about, that's because child care is child care. you know, it's something you have to have in this country. you have to have it. but when you talk about those numbers compared to the numbers i'm talking about by taxing foreign nations at levels that they're not used to but they'll get used to it very quickly. and it's not going to stop them from doing business with us, but they'll have a very substantial tax when they send product into our country. those numbers are so much bigger than any numbers we're talking about, including child care. so you have millions of gallons of water pouring down from the north with the snowcaps in canada, all pouring down. and they have a, essentially, a very large faucet. you turn the faucet, and it

takes one day to turn it. it's massive. it's as big as the wall of that building right there behind you. and you turn that, and all of that water goes into the -- aimlessly into the pacific. if they turned it back, all of that water would come right down here and right into los angeles. they wouldn't have to have people not use more than 30 gallons and 32 gallons. they want to do that, you know, trying to do that. and you'll have so much water. all those fields that are right now barren, the farmers would have all the water they needed. you could revert water up into the hills. you have all the dead forests, where the forests are so brittle. >> what do you see as the major threats to the future of michigan manufacturing, autoworker jobs, and what will you do to eliminate those threats, sir? >> so i'll get into another little bit of a long answer. when you say major threat, to me, we have one major threat.

it's called nuclear weapons. we have other countries that are hostile to us. they don't have to be hostile to us. i always say, if you have a smart president, you'll never have a problem with china, russia, or any of them, okay? i got along great with putin. i got along great with president xi. i got along with kim jong-un of north korea. everybody said, oh, you can't get along with him. he liked me. i got along great with him, and he has a lot of nuclear force. you essentially have five countries, and you'll have more. whether you like it or not, you'll have more. it's the single biggest threat to the world, not just michigan but to the world. you won't care so much about making cars if that stuff starts happening. >> he can't give a straight answer, and he getting into nonsensical rambling. that was about bringing manufacturing back to michigan. the previous question, the big

faucet, takes a day to turn, it's about water conservation. that first question, the long rambling question about child care. i mean, his answer, nonsensical. that's always the case. >> no answer. >> john heilemann, mika will get to the false equivalencies on violent rhetoric, which, believe it or not, is even worse, but something is happening out there. people are trying to flatten, and it's not just the anti anti-trumpers. it's also people in the mainstream media. they're going, yes, donald trump, he's saying all these crazy things, but did you see that? there were two. there were two people this weekend with significant columns going, but did you see her answer to the local philadelphia question? she actually gave a three-point answer, and she talked about, you know, $50,000 for start-up small businesses. she talked about tax breaks, $25,000 tax breaks for

first-time homebuyers. she talked about a private investment partnership that would help create the building of 3 million new jobs. those are specific answers to specific questions. yet, two people, one at the "wall street journal," one at "the new york times," they were like, did you hear her talking about her background, middle-class background? she never tells us anything about anything. actually, that's a lie. absolute lie. it ignores what politicians have been doing for hundreds of years. when somebody asked me about jobs, i always started talking about my father at 40 years old, losing his job, being laid off at lockheed. i talked about driving around the south. my entire family when i was 7 or 8, sitting in the backseat, my dad going town to town, trying to find a job so he could support the family. i kept going.

then i'd end by saying, and that's why the greatest social policy is a job. these are the three things we're going to do to create a job. nobody mocked me. nobody has ever mocked a politician for actually talking about their background and how it influences their policy. but now, as we get into the homestretch, the anti anti-trumpers who just can't admit they are going to vote for a man who tried to overthrow american democracy, who did what they did on january 6th, they're desperately trying to create the permission structure so they can vote for a man who said he was going to terminate the constitution, that the chairman of the joint chiefs should be executed. he told his staff members that mike pence deserved to be hanged. i could go down the list and do it for hours. whose own lawyers said he could kill his political opponents using s.e.a.l. team six and could not be prosecuted for it. could not be prosecuted while he was in the white house. i could go down all of those

lists, but they're looking at an interview where kamala harris gives the answer. they just say, oh, but she told her life story at the beginning of the philadelphia interview, like no politician has ever done. did ronald reagan do that? did barack obama? yeah, damn straight they did. did bill clinton tell stories? yeah, damn straight. this is absolutely insane, the false equivalency. you see it from brett stevens. you see it at "the wall street journal", "the new york times." the false equivalencies they are desperately pushing at the end of this campaign. >> i'd add a couple things, joe. one is a lot of these same writers and individuals have just within the last few weeks, have commented. you know, kamala harris is new and we don't know who she is. she needs to introduce herself to the american people. the notion she's trying to

strike a balance between discussing her positions on issues and continuing to talk about her biography to the american people is kind of, not just as you say, standard-issue politics, but you could argue, it's even more essential for her. people covering this understand that. they understand that she is still, you know, if you look at the polls, a lot of people still have questions. who is this person? where does she come from? how do you connect her biography, her political history, to her current policy positions? telling the story of the full person is a top priority in her campaign, and it's something a lot of americans want to hear from her. how do her values connect to her policy positions? i think the other issue here, and i think it's fair for people to continue to ask questions, some of which she's not fully addressed, about how she has made some policy changes, shifts of recent vintage from her

positions in 2019, 2020, to now where she's moved from progressive positions to mainstream and moderate positions, which she's done in the course of becoming the nominee, and she hasn't accounted for. to get away from false equivalencies here, the string of flip-flops that donald trump has been guilty of in the last, i'm not talking about the fact that i think that donald trump's mental acuity here is declining precipitously and we should hold him to account for that and continue to talk about the ways in which he seems, just as joe biden did to a lot of people, mentally diminished, forgettable, deranged, losing his train of thought, incoherent, babbling. we also have to look at policy, what trump said on abortion, small business issues. he sees harris stealing a march on him in terms of tax policy. he has been all over the map since she got in.

if you're going to talk about harris' shifting positions, you have to look at the place where trump has flip-flopped or changed his positions without explanation over the course of the last weeks. we're not doing that either. others are not doing that. >> he jumped on abortion time after time after time. again, seriously, you're going to talk about kamala harris on issues? >> yeah. >> you're going to compare kamala harris on issues negatively to donald trump? not just this campaign but over the past nine years, being ill-equipped to answer any question. he's asked a question about manufacturing. bringing it back to michigan. he talks about kim jong-un. >> nuclear war. >> nuclear war. >> okay. >> he's talked about water conservation in california. he talks about a big faucet that takes an entire day to turn. we all know about child care.

seriously, do you have no shame? do you really have no shame? are you so desperate to not vote for kamala harris that you will actually twist and contort yourself so badly that you'll undermine decades of good work? because that's what's happening right now. we can see through you. this is like romper room. i don't have the mirror to hold up, but we see you. we see what you're doing. if you think that's bad, stick around for the 7:00 hour when mika takes us through the lies and the false equivalencies about political violence in america. there's even a "wall street journal" writer who is accusing democrats of killing donald trump. oh, they put a question mark after it, but blaming democrats for violent rhetoric, for violent rhetoric. never once mentioning, henninger, in your column, that

donald trump inspired january 6th, that donald trump stared, repeatedly, we learn, at the most violent moments on january 6th instead of calling it off. that nose riots where cops were brutalized because of donald trump. brutalized and four later died, their families say, as a direct result of january 6th. donald trump called those people, the cops' families, responsible for their deaths. the people that beat and brutalized cops with american flags, called them patriots. he said they're hostages. has a january 6th choir. he told his legal counsel in the white house that maybe mike pence deserved lynching on the day of january 6th. he said that mark milley should be executed for treason. he has used violent rhetoric

repeatedly. he's tried to whitewash it and say it's the democrats that are responsible for violent rhetoric. because they say that donald trump may be a threat to american democracy. what do you call january 6th? is that a threat to american democracy? is the intentional, the intentional calling of a mob to go to capitol hill and say, "i'll be with you. i'll be with you." saying you have to be strong to stop congress from the constitutional counting of the electoral college, of those votes. do you not call that a threat to democracy? do you not call it a threat to democracy when donald trump says that he wants to execute the chairman of the joint chiefs for treason? is that not a threat? saying that your vice president deserves lynching, saying that

to your legal counsel on january 6th. is that not a threat to democracy? undermining american's confidence in voting, when you know. because "the wall street journal" editorial page has been very clear, and i will say, have done the right thing repeatedly, calling out donald trump's lies. when it comes to widespread election fraud, is that not a threat to democracy? what exactly is a threat? what rises to the threat of democracy that we have ever seen in america since the civil war? if what donald trump has done over the past four years does not? please, give us the permission structure. i know you're desperate for a permission structure not to vote for kamala harris and to get people to vote for donald trump.

anti anti-trumpism, it is something. if they gave out gold medals for it, you'd get it. you would. but, please, tell me, this is a question bill maher was asking this weekend, correctly, if this is not a threat to american democracy, what we have seen over the past four years, and if that is somehow hate speech that is riling up violent rhetoric, please tell me, define for me, what is a threat to american democracy? certainly not people going around, speaking out against january 6th. it's certainly not people going out, speaking out about a presidential candidate and a former president saying he wants the chairman of the joint chiefs executed because he was insufficiently disloyal. is it maybe you think it's donald trump's chief of staff who came out and said donald

trump said he wishes his generals could be like hitler's generals? well, because they were sufficiently loyal. of course, donald trump not even knowing that the desert fox and several others tried to blow him up and kill him. i mean, it really -- this is insanity. you know, you often hear about silly season. you really do. we have officially entered silly season when people that i have read and people i have respected and others have read and respected all across the idealogical spectrum are shaming themselves right now, are shaming themselves, trying to flatten this race out and trying to make donald trump seem normal next to kamala harris. the question i cannot answer and i guess they will have to answer, what is it? what is it that they fear about kamala harris so much, that they're willing to say, you know what? we've already had four years of donald trump, and it turned out

okay. did it really? talk to the family of the cops who are dead today. talk to the cops of the families who are dead because of january 6th. talk to the federal judges that had to stand in the gap when donald trump was trying -- listen to me -- trying to undermine democracy and throw out a presidential election. now, was anything i said there not true? would you call it hate speech, anything? anything? no, i didn't think so. could go on all day, and you know it. stop embarrassing yourselves. still ahead on "morning joe," there's been escalating violence across the middle east, as israel and hezbollah ramp up their back and forth attacks.

we'll have the very latest on the growing tensions overseas. plus, the united nations general assembly gets under way this week. we'll talk about what to expect as world leaders gather in new york city. you're watching "morning joe." we are back in 90 seconds. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ this one is for you.

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♪♪ 20 minutes before the top of the hour. let's take a look at some of the other stories making headlines this morning. a manhunt is under way for multiple shooters who killed four people and injured 17 in birmingham, alabama. police say several people pulled up in a vehicle, got out, and opened fire along the city's busy night life district. investigators believe the shooters were targeting one person. state and federal data shows drug overdose deaths started decreasing sharply across the country. 10% drop amounts to the largest decrease on record according to the biden administration. while researchers credit medication that can reverse overdoses, it's not fully clear what's behind the drop. and the social network x, formerly known as twitter, says it has taken steps to comply with demands issued by the

brazilian supreme court. the court had ordered the company to name a representative in the country and to block accounts accused of pushing misinformation and undermining brazilian democracy. musk's initial refusal to comply had resulted in millions of dollars in fines and the suspension of the social network in one of the world's largest markets. now to new developments in the middle east. israeli military has started launching a new wave of strikes against hezbollah. overnight, the idf urged civilians in lebanon to evacuate villages. the iran-backed militia uses them for military purposes. both sides have escalated their attacks. on friday, israel struck an eight-story building in a densely populated neighborhood in beirut, killing several hezbollah officials, including the head of the group's operations unit.

authorities in lebanon say at least 45 people died in the attack. in retaliation, hezbollah fired 150 missiles and drones at israel yesterday. most of the rockets were intercepted by the israeli military, but at least one hit a residential neighborhood. fortunately, most people were evacuated from the area in time, and only three people were taken to the hospital. the new barrage of attacks are raising fears that could lead to a bigger conflict as israel continues to battle hamas in the south. world leaders, including president biden, are now urging both sides to show restraint. let's bring in president emeritus of the council on foreign relations, richard haass, and author of the weekend newsletter "home and away," available on substack. and editor in chief of "the economist," zani minton beddows.

good to have you both. >> what are the consequences not only for israel and the region but the world? >> it's hard to see the confluence being good. the israelis blushed as a national security aim the return of the 60,000 so more israelis moved south of the border with lebanon, to get them to return home. it's an untenable situation. you have a large chunk of your population that can't go. it's hard to see in the short run how this facilitates that. if anything, it pushes us back. there's a real debate going on about what the israeli strategy is. was it to preempt a hamas-like, october 7th like attack by hezbollah in israel? some intelligence about that. is it simply to ultimately defeat hehezbollah, to pound it until it disappears? is it to pound them until they then decide, maybe we should make a diplomatic deal with israel, where we have some type

of a pullback? those are all possibilities. hezbollah, if you listen and watch them, they seem to be digging in for the long haul. they have weapon systems they can push at israel. in the middle east, one of the rules, joe, is things can get worse before they get even worse. at the moment, i think we're probably going to see that principle reaffirmed. >> you know, it wasn't so many weeks ago that you had the united states, the eu, arab allies, not only of the u.s. but new arab allies in israel, and israel's defense minister, the intel community, all urging netanyahu to come to a cease-fire with hamas. he's gone in the opposite direction. now, we're talking about what appears to be a full-scale war with hezbollah. one has to suspect, if netanyahu keeps pushing, a regional war that finally does draw iin, i

will say, a reluctant iran who doesn't mind funding groups that kill americans and israelis, but they don't want to be involved in a full-scale, regional war. is it not going in that direction? >> yeah, it is absolutely going in that direction. i think the one additional reason i'd add to richard's three reasons for why the israelis are doing what they're doing is bibi netanyahu himself. i think he is hoping to see a clearer definition of success in lebanon than he's had in gaza. i was in the region in june, to see what would be the next stage. it was the most depressing podcast i've ever. the day after in gaza will be more of what there is now. it is going to be run by lawless gangs. it's collapsed, flattened by the israelis. bibi netanyahu has not got any success there. hasn't got the hostages back. he is under domestic pressure about that. he is trying to, i think, shift the attention. there is a very real sense in

israel that people want the citizens of northern israel to go back before school starts. but this is not the way to do that. it's clear there has been a ratcheting up. odds are it escalates out of control. it'll get worse. i was reading my colleague's this morning, saying it was nowhere as bad as it can get. israeli army isn't yet in. we haven't seen the barrage we could see from hezbollah. it could be a lot, lot worse. at the moment, it looks to be going in that direction. >> if you talk to israelis, if you talk to foreign policy experts in the region, zanny, they'll say that netanyahu is not just one more reason for it but the main reason for it. when his defense ministers, when his intel ministers, when you have so many people saying, let's move toward a cease-fire to bring the hostages home, i know you all have heard it, i have heard it from israelis and from leaders in the region.

netanyahu, for netanyahu, the enemy is peace. the day after a cease-fire is his last day in politics and his first day defending himself from being thrown in jail. and you can look at what's happened over the past several weeks, and you can see that netanyahu stands alone, pushing to expand this war north now. again, some genuinely, generally bad people. but the fact they're generally bad people didn't make the incursion into lebanon any better in the 1980s. this is a nightmare waiting to happen. can things get worse? yes. do they look like they're about to get much worse for the israelis? yes. >> absolutely. but i think there's one little wrinkle to what you've just said, which is that bibi's popularity is actually going up. he is making a calculus that he can get away with this inside

israel. for the moment, i think things are moving his way there. it is easy -- you cannot imagine just how upset the israelis are at their own security. october 7th, this is a trite thing to say, but fundamentally changed the country. fundamentally changed their sense of their own security or insecurity. bibi is playing on that. i think that -- i am stunned at how he is gradually going up in the polls. you know, it is remarkable, given everything you've said, given the direction he's taking the country in. >> well, it's even more remarkable, jonathan lemire, when you realize it was bibi netanyahu that funded hamas for years, that it was bibi netanyahu who sent a minister three weeks before the october 7th attacks and told qatar, "give hamas more money. keep the money flowing." it was bibi netanyahu and donald trump who knew in 2018 about the illicit funding for hamas, and

they did nothing to stop it because they wanted hamas funded. it was bibi netanyahu that knew about this attack a year before it happened and didn't move on it. it was bibi netanyahu who was in charge of the government, that waited five, six, seven, nine, ten, twelve hours to rescue some people attacked by savage terrorists on october 7th. and this guy, who basically burns the house down, helps hamas burn the house down, comes in as the fireman saying, "i'm here to rescue you"? i don't get that. i don't think a lot of people in israel get that. >> yeah, and it's the netanyahu government that says it's still too soon to answer questions about the hamas funding. it's the netanyahu government that says it's too soon to answer questions about the intelligence failures on october 7th. here we are nearly a year later from the attacks. richard, the violence in the middle east, as well as the situation in ukraine, overshadow what's happening in new york later this week. the united nations general

assembly. the annual meeting kicks off in earnest. president biden gets to town later tonight, his speech tomorrow. talk to us, do you see anything of note happening here? this summit, in particular, feels inconsequential. in particular, drill down on ukraine, if you will. zelenskyy is in town, as well, trying to prevent a victory plan to all parties involved. biden, harris, and trump. >> jonathan, the u.n. is functionally irrelevant for both of these conflicts. in part, because the security council, which is the venue of the u.n. that has real authority, is so divided. you have great power competition, rivalry, russia, china, the united states, can't agree on anything. the idea that the security council can exert any influence on russia over ukraine is a nonstarter, or over china, say taiwan, a nonstarter. so the u.n. is no more, no less, than great power relations at the moment. at the moment, it is pretty irrelevant. it's been sidelined. now, potentially, is there a place for diplomacy in ukraine and the middle east? in principle, yes.

in reality, in the middle east, as zanny and i have been talking about, not so much. i simply don't see it. though it'll be talked about a lot. might be the most talked about issue at the u.n. ukraine, we're a little away from diplomacy. in 2025, my hunch is diplomacy comes to the floor. we have to persuade the russians that time is not their friend, that the war will be painful and costly for them. and for the ukrainians, if they compromise, at least on temporary goals, they could have something. they could have a viable, safe country, which you could begin to reconstruct. that'll be the goal. the u.n., though, is not going to be central to this. it'll happen on the margins. >> zanny, what about the situation in ukraine? >> i was there for a week in kyiv on the front, close to the front. it is a really tough situation. the things that really struck me, one, was the degree to which the russians have already bombarded ukraine, the energy structure. there thereby ten-hour blackouts

and more throughout the winter. really grim. the nature of war at the front. i'm not a war reporter, but i was down there in a bunker watching, you know, drone battalion commanders doing the drones. you cannot imagine what this is like. 21st century drone-on-drone warfare, it is completely extraordinary to behold. the country, i agree with richard, we're now in a situation where ukraine has to change the terms of its definition of victory. it's the definition of victory, to my mind, needs to be that ukraine is a westward-focused, democratic county with serious concerns over the part of the country it currently controls. getting back to the borders will be diplomatic. they're not going to push out the russians, and it has to be recognized soon. zelenskyy is asking for more weapons, absolutely needed. he's coming to us for an invitation to join nato. happen to think that is an important part of the guarantee. the question can be, can ukraine

temperate short-term definition of victory, and we in the west, can we help do that? 2025, i think like richard said, will be a changed year. now, everyone is waiting for the outcome of the election. there is a fear that president donald trump would sell ukraine out. >> richard haass and zanny, thank you for coming on this morning. coming up on "morning joe," pablo torre joins us to break down the action from across the nfl, as well as the mlb playoff picture as we enter the final week of the regular season. and then his own incredible performance on "the feud." >> knocked it out of the park. >> you're naked in the woods. someone walks by. what do you cover yourself with? >> a leaf. >> on a scale of 1 to 10, how nice are your neighbors? >> four. >> name the greatest breakfast food ever created.

>> bacon. >> name someone you should never call when you're drunk. >> your mom. >> name a coin you throw into a fountain to make a wish. >> a penny. >> we've got a shot. (man) these men of means with their silver spoons. what will become of them when they discover robinhood gold allows others to earn their very liberal rates on idle cash. they would descend into chaos.

let's say you're deep in a show or a game or the game. on a train, at home, at work. okay, maybe not at work.

point is at xfinity. we're constantly engineering new ways to get the entertainment you love to you faster and easier than ever. that's what i do. is that love island? rough start the first couple weeks. it's intercepted. alexander, high stepping for six! >> third and ten. richardson taking a deep shot down the field. pearce is there at the ten and down to the five. >> seven catches, his best game. here's saquon barkley. saquon barkley's the guy! he's going to take it, down from 65.

>> second and seven. austin to the 20, foot race to the 10. he's across for the touchdown. >> still got the one time-out left in the back pocket. dalton taking a shot. to the end zone! it is caught! >> motion, out of the backfield. the block. he's got it. dj metcalf! >> third and one, it's henry racing for the hole and more. derrick henry with a down. >> gibbs is in the end zone for a touchdown. >> snapper, across for williams. >> oh! somersaulted to the end zone! >> some of the biggest plays from across the nfl yesterday. pablo, so much to talk about. i guess we need to go to atlanta first and the falcons hosting kansas city.

patrick mahomes shook off an early interception with a pair of touchdowns. stopped by falcons twice in the closing minutes to beat them unbeaten with a 22-17 victory. let's bring in, again, pablo torre and host of "pablo torre finds out." >> i want to see "the feud." >> we will in a little bit. >> yes, please. >> pablo, there's so much to talk about. i want to talk, though, first about bill o'reilly. >> always. >> i remember bill o'reilly, this was when he was at the height of his fame. i didn't know him well, but there was some event in new york. he was just scouring in the corner. i just went up there with my diet coke. >> oh, god. >> i went, bill, dude, you have to world in front of you here. smile, baby. smile! i bring that up because i thought -- >> there it is.

>> -- there was this massive contract. he could not be worse. also, tom brady, tom brady is turning, like, the g.o.a.t. is turning into a great broadcaster. you can say to ceedee lamb, hey, stop. you weren't open. stop whining, which is exactly what brady did. >> there's a lot there. all over the place. >> it all goes back to the cowboys. they paid a ton of money for dak and ceedee. dak is doing the best he can do. ceedee lamb yesterday, man, what a bad game. >> i'm always ready to do a live for you here. >> do it live. >> bill o'reilly, first show i did, strangely in '08, which is a different oral history, a differently miserable oral history than the cowboys right now. look, the cowboys, they're a funny story to me. you pay these guys all of this money. dak prescott, record prices. ceedee lamb, record prices. then you roll up against a team

that's a measuring stick, and it's 0-2 ravens team. you say to yourself, this is what the money is for. it's to beat a team like this. they're embarrassed for the second straight week at home. to me, the dak prescott question -- by the way, prescott evaluated by the aforementioned brady, now in the booth, lending his voice, literal and figurative, sounding better out there. >> yeah. >> this is a nightmare if you're a cowboys fan. the only solids, i guess, is that it's a familiar one, i suppose. underachieving while paying astronomical prices and suffering no detriment to the business model, which is we're the most popular team in america. try not to watch us. we do, every week. >> it's a long season. i'm sure that dak and ceedee are going to get in rhythm. but, boy, it's started rough. >> not good. >> we have to talk about the other side of the ball there, though. what did we hear about this

team, baltimore? man past his prime. henry, too old. derrick henry didn't look too old. >> something funny is happening in the nfl. there have been years of throw the ball evangelists saying the data, the numbers, just throw it. this season has been a return to a day of yore feeling with offenses. derrick henry is a battering ram. what the ravens got on top of lamar jackson is a guy who you do not want to encounter in any sort of scenario in which you have to tackle a person. so they ran him a zillion times, and he beat them up a zillion times, it felt like, and it worked. >> well, i don't want to whine and sound like an old man, but they don't know how to tackle anymore. somebody like derrick henry, in the secondary, they turn sideways and let him bounce. now, talking about -- >> it's the top of the hour. >> it is the top of the hour, but we have two minutes more important. >> two minutes past the top of

the hour. >> i want to talk about my man, justin fields, who should still be in chicago. if he were still at chicago, chicago would have at least two wins right now. but this pittsburgh steelers team, this is, again, we seem to be moving right now kind of past the era of throw the ball 800 times a game. >> yup. >> the pittsburgh steelers look like a team that would have won a super bowl when i was younger. a team that runs the ball, has a competent quarterback, and a really good defense. that was always what you needed to get to the super bowl. this steelers team, 3-0. nothing flashy about them. they just win. >> it's reassuring to have something that's constant, some institution that seems familiar over decades in american life. that's the pittsburgh steelers. mike tomlin, for the record here, we talk about randomness in the nfl being the story of the nfl.

it's so hard to wrangle the oblong ball. tomlin's team is the opposite of bad. >> amazing. >> every single year. you're right, as you are leading the hall of fame charge, canton, ohio, justin fields, let's get him in there, i just want to acknowledge that it's a long season. but the start to this campaign, justin fields' pittsburgh steelers quarterback, has been the greatest call you've had since i show up in the morning and do it live with you. remarkable it came this way. >> paul finebaum would say, possibly, you know, berating alabama to hire nick saban, maybe better than that. by the way, lions came back, looked good. what about the vikings? unbelievable. paul, you can jump in on any of these, as well. you know, i turned off -- i made a mistake. i turned off the rams/49ers game. i was sure the 49ers had it.

then i saw clips of the press conference afterwards. yeah, those were the two words i'd used. while i have you both up, i want to talk about somebody who is near and dear to our hearts in my home with my boys and me. he's having a rough time in the nfl. alabama guy, bryce young. reports paul finebaum, several nfl teams approached carolina to try to get a trade with bryce young, and they turned them down. isn't it time carolina lets bryce young play somewhere else? >> it is, joe. carolina, in my opinion, ruined bryce young. they played him too early. you have an owner, hedge fund billionaire on wall street, that knows nothing but makes money. screwed up the franchise. they got bryce out of the fire, and andy dalton led them to a win yesterday. >> yeah. >> but i hope they haven't done

that much damage. i realize bryce young picked up $30 million for his torture, but still, i think he has a future somewhere else. i wish they'd let him go. >> yeah. pablo, i'll ask you the same thing. i mean, i'm sure you saw mel kiper absolutely tear carolina apart. let me show you what mel said earlier this week on carolina. >>. >> i think it's mishandled, is the word. you knew young was an outlier. russell wilson was bigger. 5'10", it's opened up. russell was 205, 208, not 180. kyler murray, because wilson became the number one pick overall. different body type than bryce young. you knew bryce young, not only short, small, quarterback needed help, right? continuity. you draft a quarterback. everybody said he has great infrastructure. has carolina around him with the head coach, the coordinator, the quarterback coach, everything is there. senior assistant, everything is in place.

then you see him beat c.j. stroud on the field as a rookie. you take out the three games he threw multiple interceptions, he was five touchdowns, six touchdowns, three wicks. had decent games last year. then you go into this year and change everything. c.j. stroud is doing so well in houston. we have to destroy this thing. blow it up and start over because, you know, c.j. stroud is doing great in houston. these coaches aren't getting it done. bring in an offensive coach who was with baker and others. bring in a new pass game coordinator. new quarterback coach for bryce young. then we play him in the preseason. we play him one series in the final preseason game against the aogs. none of those guys are playing for buffalo. one series down the field, rah-rah, we accomplished everything we wanted to. i'll give you a note. c.j. stroud played in two preseason games. derek carr in two preseason games. carr is a veteran, played in two preseason games. bryce young played one series of a final preseason game against the bills. two games in, we're saying he

can't play. make sense? yes, confidence was shattered, right? yes, he needs to sit behind andy dalton a little bit. to blame this on bryce young is ridiculous. >> by the way, this is "morning joe." we are a political show. we'll get back to that in a second. >> so late. >> more importantly, pablo, what do you say? >> i love that mika is being subjected to mel kiper jr. joe, one is the steelers being good every year. the second is mel kiper's hairline. the third, to your point, is that we don't know what we're doing when we scout quarterbacks. i think there is a malpractice of the corporate management structure of the panthers. they failed him. fired the gm, new coach, failed him. also, we don't know who is good, and that's a truism throughout nfl history. we think a guy is going to be a star, then you invest all of the money in him, and he fails. you blame him. sometimes you have to look in the mirror and realize, maybe it's you. >> paul finebaum. >> what is the common

denominator? >> exactly. paul, what is the reality show that is colorado? >> every time you want to write them off, and i've been that person, they do something unbelievable. the chance of them winning that game was under 1%. it was actually about a half a percent. sanders, the son of coach prime, figured out a way. we'll show it in a second, going through the highlights. baylor is a pedestrian team. the former d.c. at lsu for the national championship, he's got a lot to answer for at the end of this game, when we get to it. coach prime, like him or not, continues to literally suffocate the air out of college football. he figures out some way, some how, as we're about to get to that play in a minute. >> yeah. i mean, it's been quite a

fascinating run. as you say -- >> this is it. >> golden bachelor, move over. >> yeah, there's a lot more drama here than "the golden bachelor." >> exactly. paul, not a lot of other great games this weekend in college football. disappointing. i'm always kind of cheering for nebraska and oklahoma to rise up again. they just are not doing it. usc and michigan, i guess, was the one legit good game this weekend. what's your takeaway there? >> yeah. that felt great. i mean, this was really usc's entrance to the big ten. michigan, joe, as you know, was eviscerated by texas a few weeks ago, destroyed on their home field. southern cal is definitely coming back, other than a pick six here. michigan got the ball with two minutes down. they missed an extra point or it'd been blocked, and they figured out a way to march the

entire field and scored at the end. lincoln riley, of course, who tutored some of the players that pablo mentioned, kyler and baker, and this is how they won it. amazing win. joe, we're getting late in the segment, but there is another game coming up in about six days. i guess you probably heard about it. [ laughter ] >> i was going to ask you about it. devil goes down to tuscaloosa. who is going to win it, georgia or alabama? >> i don't want to sound like one of your political guys, but as of this moment, the trend lines are all points toward alabama. two weeks ago, i would have told you the opposite thing. georgia not only laid an egg two weeks ago against kentucky, but they were exposed. >> yeah. >> their quarterback, who everybody thought was the best in the country, carson beck, looked pedestrian at times. their defensive line was beaten, lost their best offensive player. with nick saban doing tv before and during the game, alabama has

a real shot at letting everyone know there is life after saban with kalen deboer. >> i would have said, you know, georgia was going to be maybe a six-point, maybe a touchdown favorite until they laid an egg against a pretty bad kentucky team. now, like you said, trend lines may be going to alabama. we shall see. espn commentaor paul finebaum, thank you. my son and i sometimes when driving around, driving him to practice, sometimes we listen to you. he keeps saying you need to pick up the phone and give him a call. we may be calling you leading up to the big game. >> we need expert commentary from you and your son because we don't have enough. >> okay. all right. >> thank you, paul. >> give me a call. >> all right. thank you. paul finebaum. >> pablo, before you go, we have to discuss another performance for the ages. it was recently turned in. we're not talking about ohtani. we're talking about you on the celebrity edition of "family

feud." you had to come up with 146 points for a fast money segment. overcome a hole dug. your teammates were deplorable. deplorables. >> your word, not mine. >> they dig you down there. joseph and the coat of many colors, like him, you rose. you needed multiple number one answers to give your team a shot at winning the $25,000 up for grabs. >> for charity. >> grabby little hands. >> that's it. >> what happened next? history. >> you're naked in the woods. someone walks by. what do you cover yourself with? >> a leaf. >> on a scale of 1 to 10, how nice are your neighbors? >> four. >> name the greatest breakfast food ever created. >> bacon. >> name someone you should never call when you're drunk. >> your mom. >> name a coin you throw into a fountain to make a wish. >> a penny. >> we've got to shot. >> name the greatest breakfast food ever created.

you said bacon. survey said. bacon was the number one answer. >> all right! >> we need 71. name someone you should never call when you're drunk. you said, don't ever call your mom. survey said. >> 37, come on! >> come on, come on! >> come on! >> the number one answer. >> come on, pablo. >> was your ex. >> thank you, john legend. >> we need 37 points. name a coin you throw into a fountain to make a wish. you said the penny. >> yes. >> survey said -- >> oh, my god. [ applause ]

>> oh! listen. >> really good. >> i'm thinking lake placid, miracle on ice. >> you beat john legend. >> red sox 2004. ali, thriller, baby. what a job. >> that was good. >> i want to apologize to my neighbors if they saw that. i said four because that's my sense of, you know, our polity today. you're a ten, obviously. >> right. >> that was a haunting misstep by me. other than that, i felt like tom brady, actually, guys. thank you for letting me relive that. >> the g.o.a.t. >> closest i'll ever be to feeling like that. >> congratulations, you're the g.o.a.t. >> literally, our show is ruined. it is 15 past the hour. >> seriously. >> where is the news? >> you're welcome. >> pablo, you ruined it, but in a great way. >> thank you very much. let's bring in political analyst and former u.s. senator claire mccaskill. if anybody thinks we're getting off football with claire being able to tell me that her team

beat my team last night, in really a dramatic way, it was a great game. claire mccaskill, congratulations. chiefs do it. >> yeah. you know, they're killing me this year, every game is just nail-biter, come from behind. it is really hard. travis still has not gotten in gear. we've lost pacheco. there's a lot of things going on in chiefs kingdom that are worrying, but we are 3-0. we beat some of the best teams in the league. you know, we think three-peat is possible. we really do. >> you know what's going to happen, claire? i'll tell you what's going to happen. it's going to happen because last year, you had a terrible start. i mean, first half, you were terrible. everybody knew he had to throw the kelce. now, you have rice, xavier, great wide receivers. when everybody clicks, nobody going to be able to stop this chiefs team. your wide receivers, plus kelce,

man, the options are limitless. >> yeah. and i will say this, for our o-line, they are giving pat protection. he knows he's not going to get hit. really, the front three are really something. you know, for people that love football, pay attention to what's going on in the line. if you pay attention to the chiefs, it means we're in pretty good shape for the rest of the season. all right. to politics now. with six weeks to go until election day, new nbc news polling shows a major shift in the 2024 race. in the latest survey, vice president kamala harris leads former president donald trump by five points, 49% to 44% among registered voters nationwide. although, that result is within the margin of error, making a change from the previous nbc news poll conducted in july, where trump led president joe

biden by two points. since then, harris has nearly doubled biden's lead over trump with women voters, going from 11 points to 21 points. harris' favorability rating has also soared since july with 48% of voters now saying they view her positively, compared to 32% in the last poll. trump's favorability has essentially stayed the same since july with 40% viewing him positively now. despite being the sitting vice president, harris leads trump by nine points. when voters were asked which candidate better represents change. and when asked which candidate they trust more to handle top issues, trump still leads in most areas, though by smaller margins than in a january poll. voters trust trump by 21 points on immigration, by 9 points on the economy, and by 6 points on

handling crime. harris, meanwhile, is trusted more to handle abortion rights by 21 points, after biden led by 12 in january. >> well, jonathan lemire, there's also a great number of issues when you're talking about personality traits that harris easily surpasses. leadership traits. harris in this poll easily bests donald trump. it's going to be a close race. we talked about this last hour. most polls, except for one or two, gallup style 2012 outliers, most polls show all of the trend lines going in kamala harris' way. of course, "new york times"/siena poll comes out once every two, three week, and everybody will go, hey, there's a slowing of the momentum. then every other poll, no, there's not. they're just the gallup poll that said obama was lose in 2012.

that's what they are this year. you look at this poll and other polls, the momentum really breaking harris' way. in large part, breaking her way because of leadership qualities that she just laps donald trump on according to these polls. >> no question, most battleground state polls show a tight race. three came out the same morning one day last week, about pennsylvania. showed slightly different things but all had harris slightly ahead. it's a sense where most analysts in both campaigns believe this race is. it's a margin of error race, maybe the vp up a point or two, claire. let's get your take on this poll by nbc. the trend lines are certainly positive for the democratic candidate. she really cut into trump's leads in issues that have been favorable to him. we saw an extraordinary jump in her own favorability, the highest since any presidential candidate since the boost of george w. bush after the 9/11 attacks. those are really good trend lines for the vice president,

even in a race that remains really tight. >> there's a lot to sell bragt celebrate about this poll. i know you talked about this in the first hour, but the battleground states, everybody needs to take a deep breath here. if you look at polling, i think, the same polling folks just put out arizona and georgia, and those don't look great for her right now. the thing i like the most in the national poll was her progress on the economy. that's really meaningful that she is doing much better now than the democratic nominee was back when the last poll was taken on the economy. and that is -- you should circle the economy in red. if she continues to make progress there, couple ld with the personality issues i think he's going to continue to reveal, i think it is very, very

good news. this is registered voters versus likely voters. the $64 question is, who are the likely voters? who is going to show up? who has the most enthusiasm on the ground? i also like harris' hand in that particular card game. >> so last hour, we started debunking the false narratives that we are seeing play out in the presidential election. a big one is the false equivalenies on violent rhetoric. last week, the deputy editorial page director of the "wall street journal," daniel henninger, wrote a column entitled, "killing trump?" he glosses over all the things trump has said and done to promote violence, justified violence, glorified violence, and writes, quote, "yes, we know the legal details, the abhorrent events of january 6th, and the role of mr. trump's own rhetoric, but did democrats think this nonstop assault on a

person who twice got about half the country's popular presidential vote would be cost free, that it would have no negative effect on the psychological health of america's public life? you have to love the way the conventional wisdom shows up at moments like this, proclaiming that we need to tone it down. it might be a little late for that." >> tone it down. again, he says nothing about donald trump. what donald trump said after they caught the guy at the golf course. >> the argument is the media and harris campaign need to stop talking about the very real threat trump poses to american democracy. talk about facts. bill maher took on that argument on his show on friday. >> of course he's absolutely right, that we probably should tone it down. when we're talk about opponents the end of democracy, the end of western civilization, we're not helping our arguments. >> i disagree.

that's a dumb argument, i think because -- what? no, that's their argument, which is that you guys are saying trump is a threat to democracy. but he is a threat to democracy. the answer can't be that we can't say what's true. i want to say what's true. the left has to do that, too. >> since january 6th, donald trump has consistently made though threats. remember what he said that day at the ellipse? isn't stoking a violent insurgency a threat to democracy? >> and we fight. we fight like hell. if you don't fight like hell, you're not going to have a country anymore. >> is saying your vice president should have been hanged a threat to democracy? white house chief of staff mark me meadows, according to an account provided to the committee investigating january 6th, told colleagues that trump said something to the effect of, "maybe mr. pence should have been hanged." is saying the biden family should have been arrested two

weeks before the 2020 election a threat to democracy? >> that biden family and others, but that biden family is corrupt. a corrupt family. and with me and my kids, let me tell you something -- lock them up. you should lock them up. lock up the bidens. lock up hillary. [ crowd chanting "lock them up" ]. >> by the way, he pressured his own attorney general two week before the election, bill barr, to throw joe biden in jail. his political opponent, pressured him two week before the election to throw his political opponent in jail. like they do in belarus. like they do in russia. >> is calling the january 6th riotes patriots, hostages, promising to pardon them on day one a threat to democracy?

>> the moment we win, we will rapidly review the cases of every political prisoner unjustly victimized by the harris regime, and i will sign their pardons on day one. >> is threatening to execute the joint chiefs of staff a threat to democracy? because that's what trump suggested in a social media post when ranting about retired general mark milley. is mocking the brutal beating of a political rival's spouse a threat to democracy? >> kamala harris and the radical liberals force anarchy on the american people while they live in safety. in many cases, behind walls. you know that. nancy pelosi has a big wall wrapped around her house. of course, it didn't help too much with the problem she had, did it? >> is promising to be a dictator for a day a threat to democracy? >> under no circumstances, you

are promising america tonight, you would never abuse power as retribution against anybody? >> except for day one. >> except for? >> he's going to prison. except for day one. >> meaning? >> i want to close the border. he says, you're not going to be a dictator, are you? i said, no, no, no, other than day one. we're closing the border. we're drilling, drilling, drilling. after that, i'm not a dictator. >> he's repeatedly said he's going to be a dictator day one. >> is telling supporters if he wins the election they will never have to vote again a threat to democracy? >> you won't have to do it anymore! four more years, you know what? it'll be fixed. it'll be fine. you won't have to vote anymore, my beautiful christians. i love you, christians. i'm a christian. you have to get out and vote. in four years, you don't have to vote again. we'll have it fixed so good, you're not going to have to vote. >> is vowing to terminate the constitution a threat to

democracy? trump did that in another social media post while rambling and lying about the 2020 election. is refusing to admit he lost the last election and sowing doubt in the outcome of this election a threat to democracy? trump has done that for years and refuses to accept he lost in 2020, in what top government and industry officials have called the most secure election in american history? >> make no mistake, this election was stolen from you, from me, and from the country. there was never a second of any day that i didn't believe that that election was rigged. it was a rigged election. it was a rigged election, and it was a stolen, disgusting election. this country should be ashamed. we got to stop the cheating. if we stop the cheating, if we don't let them cheat, i don't have to campaign anymore. we're going to win by so much.

in the meantime, too big to rig. too big to rig. >> so what do you call that? i'm wondering what you call that. for those people that said, oh, nothing happened in his first term, yeah, january 6th happened in his first term. the attempt to overthrow american democracy, to throw out a presidential election because he didn't like the outcome happened. all those things mika said happened in the first term. there are people writing this weekend, oh, and on bill maher going, oh, you know what? nothing really happened in the first term. we got by it okay. we survived. yeah, we survived, democracy survived in spite of donald trump. democracy survived in spite of his efforts with federal courts, people in the media, local republican officials in michigan, in georgia, and pennsylvania. yeah, we survived.

we survived in spite of everything that donald trump tried to do in the first term. let's bring in right now "new york times" investigative reporter michael schmidt. "president trump demanded investigations of his foes and often got them." you know, yet another lie, yet another lie, and i'll just -- >> it wasn't so bad. >> they go, oh, nothing happened. nothing happened. it wasn't so bad. >> we got by. >> we got through. people know what trump's first term was. we got by. yeah, we got by in spite of donald trump, who, again, tried to prosecute hillary clinton repeatedly, tried to prosecute harris repeatedly. tried to prosecute others repeatedly. and you have a piece on just that. >> so we went back and looked at his attempts to weaponize the government. because folks that are trump allies say, oh, this is just bluster on the campaign trail. when you look at the first term, there is not just a sustained

effort by trump to weaponize the government. a lot of what he wanted done actually did happen. now, ultimately, they ran into the fact that they didn't have enough evidence to indict people, and they couldn't, you know, bring them into court. but a lot of those people trump wanted investigated were investigated for exactly the things that he wanted them to be looked at. trump wanted to use the irs against his enemies. james comey and andy mccabe were both the subject of highly unusual, invasive audits. the irs says that there was no political meddling in this. james comey was the subject of a leak investigation that trump wanted. john bolton was the subject of a criminal investigation that trump wanted. michael cohen was put back in prison when he refused to not

publish a damning book about trump. hillary clinton had to ultimately sit before john durham and ask questions from the special counsel about all the conspiracy theories that trump had pushed about the clinton campaign. when you look at the totality of this, and you look at what trump tried to do behind closed doors and the way that he also tried to push the justice department publicly, those things ended up happening. what we were trying to say in these thousands of words that we published was that, sure, people say if he comes back, he might do this, but we're saying, it already happened. this has already happened. that can be used as a template to see how he would act if he came back. because we know that the guardrails that were there or those people who tried to be guardrails in the first term would certainly not be there in a second. >> mike, the question is --

well, there are many questions, but one of the key questions here is, we talk about the spare amount, is what trump learned from his time in office. as you say, a lot of these things, he demanded investigations, he got them. ultimately, the potential damage of those was mitigated by other factors, whether it was don mcgahn or someone who interposed themselves between those investigations leading where trump might have wanted them to lead. if trump were a student of his own presidency in a rigorous way, and he has people around him who are, what are the ways in which a second trump term, specific areas where trump would say, i need to get rid of that person, i need to make sure i have a stooge in that job. what are the key posts where trump can knock down the institutional barriers that did keep him from the worst possible outcomes? >> mcgahn is a great example. mcgahn is a champion of the

federalist society. you know, the movement to make the courts more conservative. the reason the supreme court is the way it is today is because of don mcgahn. the federal courts were remade because of what don mcgahn did. he was the quarterback of that effort. >> right. >> but don mcgahn had a line around the rule of law. and in these memos we published, excerpts of the secret white house memos that mcgahn's lawyers drafted for trump, in them, don mcgahn is not an enabler of donald trump trying to use the rule of law and the criminal powers of the justice department, the fbi, and the irs against enemies. he is someone who draws a line around that. and even though don mcgahn is a champion of conservatives and of those who are so happy with the way the courts were we made, don mcgahn would have no place in a second trump term. because he was someone who would not go that extra distance to do

those things that trump wanted. don mcgahn went into the mueller investigation, told them everything he knew, but also stood there and said no to trump. obviously, a guy like john kelly, no place in a second trump term. those types of people would not just not be there, but you would find enablers. because these folks have had a running start over the past four years to sort of look at what happened in the first term and what they could do if they came back. because i think what you see in the final weeks of trump's presidency is someone who sort of finally figured out, you know, sort of was completely unshackled. look, he did a lot of things up until that point that were extraordinary and highly unusual, but the behavior in the final weeks was a realization of, oh, there's more that i could have done. there's more i could have gotten away with. >> michael, this behavior is paralleled in other countries.

anne applebaum, who recently calm out with a book "autocracy inc.," told this to "the guardian." it's often the case that these figures, the second time it is worse. chavez in veezuela made one coup attempt and went to jail. then he was released, did it differently, and took revenge. orban in hungary. he was prime minister one term and then he lost. when he came back, he seemed determined to make sure he nerve lost again. so the second time often is much worse, and that'strying to make. investigative reporter michael schmidt, thank you very, very much. we appreciate your coming on this morning. still ahead on "morning joe," world leaders are in new york city this week for the united nations general assembly. we have the big issues, including the rising tensions in the middle east and russia's ongoing invasion of ukraine.

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the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. and get in the picture. "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you?

this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title. welcome back. world leaders are gathering this week at the united nations headquarters in new york city.

the opening meeting for the u.n.'s general assembly is scheduled to begin tomorrow. more than 130 presidents, prime ministers, and monarchs are slated to speak. among the issues expected to dominate this week's talks are the war in ukraine and the rising tensions in the middle east. the event will also likely be president biden's last major appearance on the world stage. let's bring in columnist and associate editor for "the washington post." david, i'm looking at the front page of the "wall street journal." "israel and hezbollah approach full-scale warfare." what's the latest. >> we are getting near the all-out war in the middle east we've been woried about, the united states has been warning about, trying to prevent for nearly a year. we're about to go over the waterfall. yesterday, there were 150 hezbollah strikes on northern israel. today, there are a reported 300

israel strikes on lebanon. as i think about this, mika, the israelis have been trying to dismantleively a hornet's nest. hezbollah killed many americans, kidnapped in lebanon decades ago. but you can't do it bit by bit. you're drawn to ever-more violence, and that's what we see happening. the u.s. is still trying to find a way to get back in a diplomatic path, but, frankly, looking at the news, i just feel as if the logic of escalation here just keeps moving forward and forward. the israelis use one set of tools. hezbollah uses another set of tools. it is a very grim situation. just a final thought, mika, with the world gathering for the general assembly in new york this week, this ritual we have every year, you have to say,

we're watching the failure of the international system to contain violence in ukraine, in the middle east. people really need to take a look at the mirror. this system that we prize isn't working. >> so my question on the situation in israel and how this does not get worse rather than better, especially given, many believe, that benjamin netanyahu, if he doesn't have a war that he's handling, he has a problem for his own personal power. >> so netanyahu obvious wans to survive. the situation in the north with hezbollah is different from concluding gaza. the defense minister, gallant, has been saying, we have enough in gaza. it's time to end this war. the north is different. gallant and really a broad spectrum of israeli leaders have

been saying, september is a deadline. we have 80,000 residents of the north who are in hotels, scattered around the country. they have to get their kids back to school. all summer long, i was hearing from israeli friends, september is the deadline. we have to get this solved. the u.s. has been trying to solve it diplomatically, and it didn't happen. the israelis use these extraordinary tools last week, the exploding pagers and walkie-talkies. it's a kind of violence that, inevitably, was going to lead to more and more. my fear is that the reason for israeli military action to get their citizens back home to these villages in the north, which is entirely reasonable, is gong to be harder as this war escalates. those people are not going to be able to go back home soon under any scenario i can see. i often fear that as israel has

total mass on the ground, intelligence, force of arms, but it often masks a strategic vacuum. they aren't sure how they want to end up or how to get there. i watched it in 1982, and i fear i'm seeing it again now. >> we'll be following this. "the washington post"'s david ignatius, thank you very much for your insights this morning. jonathan lemire. >> that conflicts what is happening at the u.n. this week. joining us now, french ambassador delegate for international investment, pascal cogni, after the chairman of the board of directors at the business france agency. we see tumult in the world. the conflict in ukraine is ongoing. as we gather in new york, we have all of this concern. >> close nearby when you think about ukraine, israel, and gaza,

it's very close to us, right? it's really a concern. in the meantime, you have this momentum by which we had amazing olympic games, where we celebrate. i'm told that france won a gold medal. in the meantime, the minute you finish the paralympics, you're back to square on the war and the trade is not incredibly strong. this week, all these head of states gather and go over the issues, which is what president macron is going to come and do here. that's why i'm here to convince american investors that after the summer, with a new government in france, the time has come to go back to business and continue to invest in our country. >> certainly, the olympics, such a triumph. tell us more about this. president macron is coming in to host an a.i. summit in the near future. and what sort of impact do you think this new government has on business? >> you know, you have a government which is essentially

made of conservatives, and president macron allies, right? the truth of the matter is, they are going to ensure that we don't challenge what made this country an extremely pro-business country. for five years in a row, we were the most attractive country, which never happened for two, three decades in france. we intend to maintain this, which is essentially core assets which creates jobs. boost unemployment and bring back gdp growth higher. we think this government is going to win that. in the meantime, as you know, we have a national assembly which is divided into three blocks. we'll have to see how that works. >> those are the elections in france. talk to us, if you will, about how is europe and your country, in particular, watching the u.s. elections here, and how do you think it'll impact relations between the confidants come november and beyond? >> we always believe that the u.s. elections have an immense

impact on europe. essentially, up to one of five comes from u.s. investors. we are amazed by the fact that kamala harris has got such a strong comeback, which is quite different than what we saw three, four weeks. we're very hopeful that, overall, the relationship between the two continents, including france, will remain stronger and stronger. much stronger than the time of trump. president biden has been coming often to france. we are closely leaning on the on it of view. for what i'm in charge of, i think it is better overall. >> the delegate for international investments, mr. cogni, ambassador, thank you for being here. we'll have much more today ahead of president biden's speech to the u.n. his last moments on the international stage. all right. coming up, donald trump said over the weekend that if re-elected, women will, quote,

no longer be thinking about abortion. new mexico governor michelle lujan grisham joins us with her reaction to that claim, and much more. "morning joe" will be right back. ♪♪ some things stand the test of time, like a family car. the hartford has been insuring experienced drivers for generations. many who switch to the aarp auto insurance program from the hartford. saved an average of $577. for what's worth protecting, the hartford is here. to get your free quote, go to the buck's got your back.

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54 past the hour. in a lengthy all caps post on truth social on friday, donald trump wrote,ci women are, quote

poorer, less healthy and less safe than they were four years ago, and that he will fix all of that. he didn't pointl out the part where he created all that, but okay. he added, quote, "women will be happy, healthy, confident and free. you will no longernf be thinkin about abortion because it's now where it always had to be, with the states." the post, "by vowing to protect women at a level never seen before. ." the following day trump repeated those same claims, includingin frequent lie that democrats support executing babies after birth. taket a look. >> at long last, this national nightmare that we're going through will be over. women will be happy, healthy, confident and free. you will no longer be thinking about abortion because it is now

where it always had to be, with the states. but not allowing for democrat-demanded late-term abortion in the seventh, eighth, ninth month or even execution of aex baby after birth. >> joining uggs now is democratic governor michelle lujan grisham of new mexico, a member of the harris-walz campaignme advisory board. it's great to have you back on the show. how do you respondac to everythg that donald trump has said in the post d and then on stage abt women? >> well, it's outrageous. it's completely false, as you mentioned. and look, the so-called pro life movement doesn't seem to have any problem with the fact that we are now seeing, as the case of theee two women in georgia, that women die. so i don't know how that's pro life,w and given that, you kno we take a mom and lose her and

left a child motherless, is disgusting. i we're going to see more of that, women will have less health care, less options, less protections and we will see mor deaths. it's completely false, and women are not happy and we're seeing thatwe around the country where women have had enough and their families. >> governor, i'm curious, i see this morning that the cnn/"new york times" poll has come out showing thatom kamala harris is struggling in arizona, and you know a lot about that part of the country and what's going on with the electorate in that part of the country. can you talk a little bit about why she may be struggling somewhat with especially latino or hispanic voters and why is the economy really harming her so much, particularly when you look at the senate race in that state where ruben guy yeahgo has

polled ahead of kari lake. what can you tell us to make us feel better about her struggles in arizona. >> this will, i hope, make everyone feeli better, for the next 43 days, we are all going to be working on states like arizona and making sure we don't take any state, including new mexico, for s granted in any context. on the economy, look, we know, right, that latinas, hispanic women, make less per hour than any other group in america. we needgr to make sure that families and women in arizona representing the -- that minority community are really clear that they're going to spend $4,000 more a year under donald trump's lack of economic plans and the fact that he wants to continue topl punish middle-class families. they're interested in a middle-class agenda. they want the american dream. he's going tot take it away fr

you. i also think it's really time to be much more focused, my job, the vice president's doing an incredible job, we're seeing that momentum across the country, when you talk to any hispanic voters and talk to them about project 2025, i think it's fair to say they are nearly horrified. 100,000 people could be detained, mixed0 status famili, impacted, people losing their jobs in rural america, in rural counties, in arizona and new mexico. these are areas where i think the economy that we're going to protect middle-class families, give them starts for their businesses and what's going on in project 2025, i think can help blunt what we're seeing.we again, these polls are a moment in time. we keep focusing on giving, right, these clear -- it's a clear choice for vice president harris if you care about your family. >> governor, you're in town on the sidelines of the united

nations for the u.s. climate alliance launching a workforce initiative. give us a quick sense of what that's about. >> it's prettyof exciting stuff. given the federal investments from infrastructure to the inflation reductionfr act, chip act, we're committing that a million apprentice jobs, we wili get that done across the country in every state, making sure that you have a ready workforce at all levels for renewable energy. i can tell you it works. new mexico is number six in the nation for clean energy job growth, number one in the nation for clean energy efficiency job growth. you set these goals in agenda. put in motion training and away we go. it's our commitment to make sure we have the workforce to meet the demand and investments for clean energy economies across the country. >> democratic governor michelle lujan grisham thank you very much for coming on the show today. >> thankmu c you, mika. >> the third hour of "morning joe" starts right now.

in springfield, they're eating the gfdogs, the people tt came in, they're eating the cats. they're eating -- they're eating the pets of the people that live there. >> yeah. that was donald trump accusing haitian immigrants of killing and eating people's pets. can you even remember a time when something like that would have been disqualifying? i can't anymore. republicans have elected three times. democrats lost to him half the time. thelf election is still close, because unfortunately some americans watch that and thought, i don't like how kamala laughed when he called immigrants dog eeltsers. that wasn't very presidential. >> good morning. >> that sums it up. >> sure does. >> it is monday, september 23rd. with us, we have the host of "way too early" bureau chief at politico jonathan lemire, nbc news national affairs analyst and partner in chief political columnist at puck, john heilemann. good to have you with us.

we have six weeks to go until election day, and there's new nbc news polling out showing a major shift in the 2024 race. in the latest survey, vice president kamala harris leads former presidentri donald trumpy five points, 49% to 44% among registered voters nationwide, although that result is inwi th margin ofsu error, and it marks change from the previous nbc news poll conducted back in july where trump led president joe biden by two points. since then harris has nearly doubled biden's lead over trump with women voters going from 11 points to 21 points. harris' favorability rating has soared since july with 48% of voters now saying they view her positively compared to 32% in the last poll. trump's favorability has

essentially stayed the same since july with 40% viewing him positively now, despite being the sitting vice president, harris leads trump by nine points when voters were asked which candidate better represents change? and when asked which candidate they trust more to handle top issues, trump still leads in mostst areas, though by smaller margins than in a january poll. voters trust trump by 21 points on immigration, by nine points on the economy, and by six points on handling crime. harris, meanwhile, is trusted more toil handle abortion right by 21 points after biden led by 12 in january. joining us now, nbc news senior political editor mark murray. >> mark, take us through this. these polls are consistent with a lot of other polls that have shown bigls momentum in kamala harris' direction. they're always outliers in 2012,

we had gallup throughout the race saying that romney was going to beat obama by 11 points. this year we have "the new york times" siena poll which is an outlier. this nbc news poll goes with almost every other pollwi with e wind at harris' back. why is that? >> yeah. joe, you know, basically our poll ended up showing this is a transformed race. the last time that we were in the field was back in july, and, of course, so much has happened. democrats have c a new candidat at the top of the ticket. you've had two presidential conventions, two vice presidential selections, a presidential debate, just a couple weeks ago, and our poll shows that this is a changed race. the two things can be true, this can be a b changed race where t democrats have aed little bit o wind atha their backs, but it ao can i be very, very close. joe, one of the things, when you have kamala harris more popular than donald trump, you end up having democrats leading on our ballot.

you end up having democrats with a slight leading congressional ballot. that looksgr like october of 20 when joe biden was running against donald trump the very end of that race according to our poll, and as we all know that turned out to be a close race. democrats shoulda feel very go about this poll and a lot of others that are consistent with those findings, but also we should also get ready for another very close election. >> let's dig into some of these numbers here. i was struck by this. harris' favorability has jumped 16 points since july, which is the largest increase for any politician in nbc news polling since george w. bush got a surge after 9/11. thataf speaks how the voters ar viewing her differently now, the biggest jump in 35 odd years.35 talk to us about that, but also, drill deep for us about certain key voting blocks? houp is she faring in the groups many are deciding this election, women, voters of color and the young voters?

>> yeah. jonathan, you mentioned our poll ends up showing that 16-point rise in her favorability. that's the largest since george w. bush since 9/11. when we're talking about a candidate from a major party anp presidential contest we've never had numbers like that in our 35-year history of the nbc news poll. again, that shows you how she has transformed, too, since july. of course, her ratings since her vice presidency pretty much mirrored what we end up seeing from president biden. her beingom at the top of the ticket, she is now in a different place not only that biden was t in, but where donal trump is in popularity. jonathan, when we look at the key voting blocks who have moved in this, it is black voters, it is women, and those -- and also importantly, young voters, too. harris is doing better with those groups than joe biden was doing in dejuly, and that's reflected in our overall ballot

score. >> mark, it's john heilemann here. we talk a lot about harris' movement and you say the races is transformed by her versus joe biden. talk about donald trump and whether what we see in these numbers isse consistent, as joe said, with what the other polling, w which is that trump seems to have kind of -- if you look at it, the big takeaway, looks like we know where donald trump stands w with this electorate and may have hit a ceiling across a lot of differentss vectors here. just talk about that. >> yeah. john, what our poll has shown over the course of the lastol t years is how donald trump's ballot number reallyd hasn't changed. it's been in this 45, 46, 47% range, and every track that we've donery going back to 2023 and what has moved has been first joe biden's numbers and now we end up having kamala harris. but, john, it's also important to note, again, with all the

kind of ups and downs, the changes in our poll, this remains a margin of error contest. but we have seen time and time again where donald trump,me you know, that t 46, 47% figures, tt matched his popular vote in 2016, it matched his popular vote in 2020, and it really kind of hasn't budged much. it's important to remember in 2016, 46, 47% became a winning number% particularly in key battleground states because of the size of third-party vote.pa this time around this is looking more like 2020 where the third-partyhe vote is much smaller, where in key states it might -- you might have to get 49, 50% to be able to win. coming up, a live report from the middle east where new fighting is erupting on israel's northerner front. we'll have the very latest from on the ground there when nbc's richard engel joins the conversation. "morning joe" is back in a moment. a moment

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when it comes to violent rhetoric. we're going to break down both. we're going to start with the first false narrative, the "but the issues" crowd. take a look at how msnbc host of the 11th hour stephanie ruhle picked that argument apart on friday night. >> it's not too much to ask kamala, say, are you for a palestinian state if hamas is going to run that state. yes or no. >> let's say you don't like her answer. are you going to vote for donald trump? >> no, i'm not. i just said i'm not going to vote -- >> kamala harris is not running for perfect. she's running against trump. we have two choices. there are some things you might not know her answer to. in 2024, unlike 2016 for a lot of the american people, we know exactly what trump will do, who he is, and the kind of threat he is to democracy. what's unclear to me how there could be an informed -- >> the problem that a lot of

people have with kamala, we don't know her answer to anything. okay. >> you know his answer to everything. >> and that's why i would never vote for him and people shouldn't vote for him. people also are expected to have some idea of what the program is of the person you're supposed to vote for. just not supposed to say you have to vote for y, because x is this, that, and the other. let's find out a little bit more. i don't think it's a lot to ask her to sit down for a real interview, as opposed to a puff piece she describes like her feelings of growing up in oakland -- >> i would just say to that when you move to nirvana give me your real estate broker's number and i'll be your next door neighbor. we don't live there. >> that is. i like bret. i don't know what universe he lives in. he said we don't know her answer to anything. >> that's just -- >> that's just false. >> that's not true. >> it's false.

he, obviously, hasn't been watching the campaign and, again, i know you're going to get into this, but compare what she said and, again, we can go through the issues, with donald trump. >> yeah. >> whether it's that rambling answer on child care, a nonsensical answers during the debate. by the way, she wants to debate again. donald trump doesn't because he doesn't talk about the issues, he can't talk about the issues. again, there's false equivalency from the anti-trump crowd and also from the mainstream media. >> served as a senator, prosecutor, attorney general, and the vice president and also has a record. >> she has a record. >> something you can compare to trump. last week los angeles bureau chief for the "new york times"ed to periodham wrote an on et piece for the paper where he mocked harris for telling her life story in an interview with a local tv station in philadelphia. in response to a question about bringing down prices and making life more affordable, for people

criticized harris for talk about how she was a middle-class kid who grew up in a community of construction workers, nurse, and teachers, who were very proud of their lawn. and how her mother saved to buy her family's first house and paid tribute to a neighbor who became a surrogate parent. she praised the beautiful character of the american people, only then after two minutes, he writes, did miss harris outline her plan. the vice president has been outlining her plan for weeks. here are some examples. >> when people work hard and have a dream of buying a home, we should give you the opportunity to be able to do that, which is why part of my plan is for first-time home owners, buyers to have a $25,000 down payment assistance to buy your first home. because people just need -- [ applause ] -- to be able to get their foot in the door and you'll do the

hard work. part of my plan is to give start-up small businesses a $50,000 tax deduction to start up their small business. right now it's $5,000. nobody can start a small business with $5,000. that's part of my plan. because here's the thing, we know that we have a shortage of homes and housing and the cost of housing is too expensive for far too many people. we know that young families need support to raise their children and i intend on extending a tax cut for those families of $6,000 which is the largest child tax credit we have given in a long time so those young families can afford to buy a crib, car seat, clothes for their children. we are going to work with the private sector and home builders to increase 3 million homes, increase by 3 million homes by the end of my first term. >> all right. to stephanie's point, you don't

like the answer? is that good enough for you? what you need to do is compare that to direct questions donald trump has been asked on how he would handle various issues including bringing down the cost of child care, water conservation in california and threats to manufacturing in michigan. take a listen. >> can you commit to prioritizing legislation to make child care affordable, and if so, what specific piece of legislation will you advance? >> well i would do that, and we're sitting down -- you know i was -- we had senator marco rubio and my daughter ivanka were impactful on that issue. it's an important issue. when you talk about the kind of numbers i'm talking about, that -- because look, child care is child care. you know, it's something you have to have it. in this country you have to have it. when you talk about those numbers compared to the kind of numbers that i'm talking about

by taxing foreign nations at levels that they're not used to, but they'll get used to it quickly, it's not going to stop them from doing business with us, but they will have a very substantial a.m. tax when they send problem into our country,s them to numbers are so much bigger than any numbers we're talking about including child care. you have millions of gallons of water pouring down from the north with the snowcaps in canada, all pouring down, and they have a -- essentially a very large faucet and you turn the faucet, and it takes one day to turn it. it's massive. it's as big of the wall of that building behind you. you turn that, all of that water goes aimlessly into the pacific and if they turned it back, all of that water would come down here and into los angeles. they wouldn't have to have people not use more than 30 gallons and 32 gallons. they're trying to do that. and you have so much water.

all those fields that are right now baron, would have all the water they needed. you could revert water up into the hills where the forests are so brittle. >> what do you see as the major threats to the future of michigan manufacturing, auto working jobs, and what will you do to eliminate those threats, sir? >> okay. so i'll get into another a little bit of a long answer. when you say major threat, to me, we have one really major threat, that's called nuclear weapons. we call -- we have other countries that are hostile to us, they don't have to be hostile to us -- i always say if you have a smart president you'll never have a problem with china, russia or any of them. i got along great with putin, with president xi, with kim jong-un of north korea. everybody said you can't get along with him. he liked me. i got along great with him. he has a lot of nuclear force.

you have essentially five countries -- you're going to have more, whether you like it or not, you're going to have more -- it's the single biggest threat to the world, no the only michigan, to the world. you're not going to care so much about making cars if that stuff starts happening. >> he can't give a straight answer, and he devolves into nonsensible ramblings. >> raises a lot of questions. >> that last answer, about that rambling, was about bringing manufacturing back to michigan. the previous question, the big faucet, takes a day to turn, it's about water conservation. that first question, the long rambling question about child care, i mean, his answer, nonsensical. that's always the case. >> no answers. >> john heilemann, mika will get to the false equivalencies on violent rhetoric, which is even worse, but something is happening out there where people are trying to flatten -- and

it's not just the anti-anti-trumpers, it's also people in the mainstream media -- going yes, donald trump is saying all of these crazy things, but did you see that -- there were two -- there were two people this weekend with significant columns going, but did you see her answer to the local philadelphia question where she actually gave a three-point answer and she talked about, you know, $50,000 for start-up small businesses. she talked about tax breaks, $25,000 tax breaks, for first-time home buyers. she talked about a private investment partnership that would help create the building of 3 million new jobs. those are specific answers to specific questions. and yet, two people, one at "the wall street journal," one at the "new york times," were like did you hear her talking about her background and her middle-class background. then they go oh, yeah, she got to the policy questions later.

she never tells us anything about anything. actually that's just a lie. it's an absolute lie. it also ignores what politicians have been doing for hundreds of years. when somebody asked me about jobs, i always started talking about my father 40 years old, losing his job, being laid off at lockheed. driving around the south, my entire family and i sitting in the back seat, my dad going town to town trying to find a job so he could support the family, and i kept going. then i would end by saying, and that's why the greatest social policy is a job and these are the three things we're going to do to create a job. nobody mocked me. nobody has ever mocked a politician for actually talking about their background and how it influences their policy. now, as we get into the home stretch, the anti-anti-trumpers who can't admit they are going to vote for a man who tried to overthrow american democracy, who did what they did on january

6th, they're desperately trying to create the permission structure so they can vote for a man who said he was going to terminate the constitution, that the chairman of the joint chiefs should be executed, he told his staff members that mike pence deserved to be hanged. i could go down the list. i could do it for hours. whose lawyers, own lawyers, said he could kill his political opponents using s.e.a.l. team 6 and not be prosecuted for it. could not be prosecuted while he was in the white house. i could go down all of those lists, but they're looking at an interview where kamala harris gives the answer. they just say oh, but she told her life story at the beginning of that philadelphia interview like no politician has ever done. ronald reagan, did ronald reagan do that, barack obama. yeah, dam straight they did. did bill clinton tell stories. yeah, dam straight.

this is absolutely insane, the false equivalency you see it from bret stevens, "the wall street journal," "the new york times" the false equivalencies they are pushing at the end of this campaign. >> i would add, one of which is a lot of these same writers and individuals have within the last few weeks have commented that kamala harris is new and we don't know who she is. she needs to introduce herself to the american people. the notion she's trying to discuss a balance between discussing her positions and continuing to talk about her biography to the american people is not just, as you say, standard issue politics, but you could argue even more essential for her and people covering this understand that, understand she is still, you know, if you look at these polls, a lot of people still have questions. who is this person? where does she come from? how do you connect her biography, her political history, to her current policy

positions that is telling the story of the full person is one of the top priorities that she has in her campaign and one of the things that a lot of americans want to hear from her is how do her values connect to her policy positions. i think that the -- the other issue here and i think that -- i think it's fair for people to continue to ask questions that some of which she has not fully addressed about how she has made some policy changes, shifts of recent vintage from her positions in 2019, 2020, to her positions now, where she's moved from very progressive positions to more mainstream or moderate positions that she has done in the course of becoming the nominee and not fully accounted for. however, to get away from false equivalencies here, the string of flip flops that donald trump has been guilty of in the last -- i'm not talking about the fact that i think that donald trump's mental acuity is

declining precipitously and should hold him to account for that and continue to talk about the ways she seems as joe biden did to a lot of people, mentally diminished forgetful, deranged, losing his train of thought, babbling, all of that, focus on that, but we have to look at policy what trump has said on abortion, on a lot of economic policy issues, on some of these small business issues where he sees harris stealing a march on him in terms of tax policy, he has been all over the map since she got in. harris is shifting positions. you have to look at the place where trump has flip flopped or changed his positions without explanation over the course of the last weeks. we're not doing that either. >> coming up, the hughley begans and doesn'ts who burned down the house. columnist dana milbank is here with a book on the maga-led chaos on capitol hill. that's straight ahead on "morning joe." ead on "morning joe."

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at long last, this national nightmare that we're going through will be over. women will be happy, healthy, confident and free. you will no longer be thinking about abortion because it is now where it always had to be, with the states. but not allowing for a democrat demanded late term abortion in the seventh, eighth, ninth month, or even execution of a baby after birth. >> on abortion, time after time after time, and again, you're going to talk about kamala harris on issues? >> yeah. >> you're going to -- you're

going to compare kamala harris on issues negatively to donald trump? not just this campaign, but over the past nine years, being ill equipped to answer any question that -- he's asked a question about manufacturing and bringing it back to michigan, and he talks about kim jong-un. >> nuclear war. >> nuclear war. >> okay. >> he's talked about -- he's talking about water conservation in california and talks about a big faucet that takes an entire day to turn and we all know about child care. seriously, like do you have no shame? do you really have no shame? are you so desperate to not vote for kamala harris that you will actually twist and contort yourself so badly that you'll undermine decades of good work? because that's what's happening right now. and we can see through you. this is like romper room.

i don't have the mirror to hold up, but we see you, and we see what you're doing. if you think that's bad, there's even a "wall street journal" writer who's accusing democrats of killing donald trump. oh, they put a question mark after it. but blaming democrats for violent rhetoric, for violent rhetoric, never once mentioning dan henninger in your column that donald trump inspired january 6th, that donald trump stared repeatedly, we learned, at the most violent moments on january 6th, instead of calling it off, those riots, where cops were brutalized because of donald trump, brutalized! and four later died, their family say as a direct result of january 6th. donald trump called those people, the cops' families that say they are responsible for their deaths and those people that beat and brutalized cops with american flags, called them

patriots. he said they're hostages. he told his legal counsel in the white house that maybe mike pence deserved lynching on the day of january 6th. he said that mark milley should be executed for treason. he has used violent rhetoric repeatedly. he tries to white wash it and say it's the democrats that are responsible for violent rhetoric because they say that donald trump may be a threat to american democracy. what do you call january 6th? is that a threat to american democracy? is the intentional, the intentional calling of a mob to go to capitol hill and say, i'll be with you.

i'll be with you. and saying you have to be strong to stop congress from the constitutional counting of the electoral college, of those votes? do you not call that a threat to democracy >> do you not call it a threat to democracy when donald trump says that he wants to execute the chairman of the joint chiefs for treason? is that not a threat? saying that your vice president deserving lynching, saying that to your legal counsel on january 6th. is that not a threat to democracy? undermining americans' confidence in voting? when you know, because "the wall street journal" editorial page has been very clear, and i will say, done the right thing repeatedly calling out donald trump's lies, when it comes to

widespread election fraud. is that not a threat to democracy? what exactly is a threat? what rises to the threat of democracy that we have ever seen in america since the civil war, if what donald trump has done over the past four years does not? please give us the permission structure. you're desperate for the permission structure not to vote for kamala harris and to vote for donald trump. anti-anti-trumpism is something. if they gave out a gold star you would get it. please, tell me, this is a question bill maher was asking this weekend correctly. if this is not a threat to american democracy what we have seen over the past four years, and if that is somehow hate speech, riling up violent rhetoric, please, tell me, define for me, what is a threat to american democracy? it's certainly not people going

around speaking out against january 6th. it's certainly not people going out speaking out about a presidential candidate and a former president saying, he wants the chairman of the joint chiefs executed because he was insufficiently disloyal. is it maybe you think it's -- donald trump's chief of staff who came out and said donald trump says he wishes his generals could be like hitler's generals because they were sufficiently loyal. donald trump not even knowing that desert fox and several others tried to blow him up and kill him. i mean, it really is. you often hear about silly season. we have officially entered silly season when people i have read and people i have respected and others have read and respected all across the ideological

spectrum are shaming themselves right now, are shaming themselves trying to flatten this race out and trying to make donald trump seem normal next to kamala harris. the question i cannot answer and i guess they will have to answer, what is it? what is it that they fear about kamala harris so much that they're willing to say, you know what, we've already had four years of donald trump, and it turned out okay. did it really? >> i'm -- >> talk to the family of the cops who are dead today. talk to the cops of the families who are dead because of january 6th. talk to all the federal judges that had to stand in the gap when donald trump was trying, listen to me, trying to undermine democracy and throw out a presidential election. did anything i say there -- anything i say there not true?

whether you talk about hate speech, anything, anything? i didn't think so. go on all day and you know it. stop embarrassing yourself. >> coming up our next guest is holding top-level talks on the ukrainians' fight for freedom. his country forms a key bulwark against aggression. that conversation is straight ahead next on "morning joe."

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let's take a look at some of the other stories making headlines this morning. a manhunt is under way for multiple shooters who killed four people and injured 17 in birmingham, alabama. police say several people pulled up in a vehicle, got out, and opened fire along the city's busy night life district. investigators believe the shooters were targeting one person. state and federal data shows drug overdose deaths are decreasing sharply across the country. the 10% drop amounts to the largest decrease on record, according to the biden administration. while researchers credit medication that can reduce -- reverse overdoses it's not what's known behind the drop. x has taken steps to comply

with demands issued by the brazilian supreme court. the court had ordered the company to name a representative in the country and block accounts accused of pushing misinformation and undermining brazilian democracy. musk's initial refusal to comply had resulted in millions of dollars in fines and the suspension of the social network in one of the world's largest markets. coming up, steve kornacki joins us from the big board with a deep dive into presidential polling. he breaks down the newest numbers when "morning joe" comes right back. t back my moderate to severe crohn's symptoms kept me out of the picture. now i have skyrizi. ♪ i've got places to go and i'm feeling free ♪ ♪ control of my crohn's means everything to me ♪ ♪ control is everything to me ♪

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that was the red hot chili peppers headlining last year's global citizen festival. the annual event will be back in central park this year bringing together artists, activists and corporate leaders to raise money and awareness with the goal of ending extreme poverty and solving other global issues. joining us now the ceo and founder of global citizen hugh evans and executive vice president and chief people policy and purpose officer for cisco, francine kasudis. fran. >> cisco is one of the partners of the festival and great to have you both with us. >> thank you for being with us. >> we've been seeing you do this for quite some time. an extraordinary goal. i want you to talk about the

event, but first, let's talk about the progress that has been made since global citizen has started its mission going around the world and doing everything it can to stamp out extreme poverty. where are you right now? >> firstly, thank you so much, joe and, mika, for having fran and i this morning. global citizen is a global advocacy organization working for the eradication of extreme poverty within our lifetime. thanks to the more than 30 million actions of global citizens taken over the last ten years, have resulted in over $43 billion committed on global citizen stages in the last 12 i over 1.3 billion people on the planet. there is still so much more to go because we know that there are still 719 million people living on less than u.s. $2.15 per day, but we have the opportunity through this week's global citizen festival as 60,000 global citizens gather on

the great lawn to achieve major progress to end extreme poverty and also protect the planet. >> so tell us more about how you do it. there is the festival and i want to hear about the lineup, there's the timing of this year's event, which is interesting, and how you work to really bring world leaders together and get people to step up. >> so this year's festival, mika, is headlined by the incredible post malone together with doja cat, together with lisa from black pink, jelly roll, ray, together with chris martin of coldplay and dr. jane goodall. it's all going to be hosted by hugh jackman and 60,000 global citizens have earned their way into the festival. you don't buy a ticket to global citizen, all of your actions earn you points and you can use those points to come to the global citizen festival for free. this year those actions called on world lead towers make a few

civic things happen. firstly, we were calling on the g20 nations to support the world bank's fund called ida to provide zero to low interest loans to the world's poorest nations. we need denmark and spain to step unand provide leadership on this. secondly on defending the planet. the amazon are the lungs of our earth and need to be protected. we're calling on governor hochul here in new york to make sure they put into effect the trees act, this trees act will make sure that new york state's procurement does not lead to tropical deforestation and thirdly we can fore sing on demanding equity. we need the european commission to step up and support the vaccine alliance to provide vaccines and immunizations but we also desperately need support from the u.s. government to support education cannot wait to provide education for children fleeing conflict and crisis zones all over the world. there is so much happening around our world, there are so

many actions that we as global citizens can take and often alone we can feel like our voices don't matter but when you're part of a movement of 12 million global citizens calling on world leaders in unison, they can't possibly ignore it. >> yeah, and, fran, this is so much all the goals here, even when it comes to conflicts in the world, this has so much to do with cisco's philosophy. if there's a hot spot, a conflict, if there are people in pain, cisco is there. so tell us what you're looking for and what the goals are that you're hoping to see accomplished in this year's event throughout maybe until the end of the year and why cisco is so committed to global citizen. >> you know, that's easy. i think when i think about the partnership that we have with global citizen, our ability to work together to really eradicate poverty, to focus on the planet, to think about this level of economic inclusion i think is so tied to who we are.

as a company our purpose is to power an inclusive future for all. what's so amazing about that is we work together with customers, with partners, with governments around the world to truly drive impact and what we see is that there's a ton of work to be done. both of us have tremendous focus on the african continent and what we know today is that only 40% of people are connected which impacts their access to education, to health care, to work and these are some of the opportunities where technology can come together with amazing organizations to truly have impact. the last thing that i would say is this concept of every single person having impact, every single person playing a role in how we eradicate poverty i think is meaningful. i think it gives us hope. similarly within cisco we believe that every single employee plays a role not only in the communities but in innovation and how we win. i think those similarities are

powerful, too. >> hugh and fran, thank you so much. you can glow nate to global citizen at www.global citizen.org. thanks to you both again for coming on the show. it's always great to have you. we appreciate it. still ahead, steve kornacki joins us from the big board with more from the new nbc news poll which shows a transformed presidential contest. we will also bring you a live report from israel following the country's latest round of attacks on hezbollah targets in lebanon. and we will get insight on the markets and a rundown of this morning's business headlines from cnbc's andrew ross sorkin. keep it right here on "morning joe." sorkin. keep it right here on "morning joe. take on the day. with taltz, up to 90% of patients saw a significant improvement of their psoriasis plaques. some even saw 100% clear skin. and for those with psoriatic arthritis, taltz reduces joint pain and stiffness. don't use if you are allergic to taltz.

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welcome to the fourth hour of "morning joe." it is 6:00 a.m. on the west coast, 9:00 a.m. in the east.

jonathan lemire is back with us for the hour. >> so is the top of this hour going to be like the top of 7:00, jonathan lemire. >> no. >> we talked for -- >> 14 minutes. >> -- 14, 15 minutes on -- >> i have a lot of thoughts on andy dalton if you want to do it now, joe. >> exactly. how can we not talk about andy -- what did your patriots do? when do you guys play? are you tonight? >> the patriots got their loss out of the way early, they were the thursday night game against the jets. >> that's right. >> they barrel had 100 yards of offense. this week they go to san francisco and the question for them is -- the only question for them is when do they go to drake may, the rookie quarterback? i still think it's a couple weeks away. give him some more time. he could get hurt behind that offensive line. >> what's wrong with the cowboys? >> you know, their defense is not playing as well as it did the last couple years. you know, we discussed a couple hours back dak and ceedee lamb seem a little off.

people were surprised that coach mccarthy came back. jerry jones didn't make the change. he is clearly on the hot seat and if you wanted to speculate will eventual bill belichick destinations, dallas at the moment has to be top of the list. >> yeah. hey, do you know what happens when christian mccafferty, deebo samuels and kittle get hurt? >> the niners lose. >> you start 1-2. you have one of the best teams in football, they're missing three -- three key components from their offense and so, yeah, they start 1-2. >> and the other piece is the wide receiver who held off has gotten off to a slow start. ceedee lamb held out, off to a slow start. joe, we are one minute down, 13 more minutes to go, we can do it. >> we're off to a slow start, that's for sure. >> we will go from football to announcers. i was saying this to mika yesterday, you never know how somebody is going to do, you know, like with kamala we never

knew how she was going to do, stepping into that spotlight. she's done very well. we have a poll we are about to show that shows this is a transformed race. if you look at every other poll except one which i think is -- you know, they work is together with witchcraft, you know, and herbs and spices -- >> where are we going here? >> as the grateful dead would say the pollsters are on vitamin c and cocaine. other than that one poll it is a transformed race, but i will say you never know how somebody is going to be in that spotlight. we didn't know how tom brady was going to be on fox. mika and i were listening yesterday and we were both really surprised. you know -- you know how in europe the soccer players, the football players, are so arrogant? that suddenly changes, like nobody yells at the coach when the coach is the zadon.

it's like, wait a second, okay, they're playing for like the g.o.a.t. that's like tom brady yesterday. like tom brady -- tom brady can say, dak has to do a better job than that. tom brady can say, hey, ceedee, hey, hey, don't look shocked in the end zone, you weren't open. tom brady actually was very assertive yesterday, he spoke his mind, he did a really good job as a broadcaster. this isn't easy. i would guess this isn't easy to do, going from the field to the booth. he's doing it really, really well and he will only get better, but what i like is it ain't a club with tom brady, he knows why he's getting paid, he's getting paid to tell it like he sees it and that really is -- it's really clarifying in the middle of a game. >> yeah. he was an authoritative voice. look, he was in week one a little shaky, he was clearly nervous, it was his first game out there. >> anybody would be. >> he got mixed reviews after

week one, however, the last two weeks he's been excellent, steady improvement. he is too smart and frankly too competitive not to be really good at this. he is the most driven athlete i have ever had the pleasure of rooting for and i think he is someone who is going to keep putting in the work to get better at this and we sometimes see when a player or certainly a coach goes to the booth and especially if a coach thinks he might coach again he's tentative, cautious, doesn't want to be too hard on players. that has not been the case for brady the last day or two. i think he is growing into the role nicely. >> that's what separates him. speaking about players who played in boston how about our red sox. they're picking up at just the right time. hitting the ball at just the right time or maybe about three weeks later, one of the two, i'm not sure. >> on the verge of being mathematically eliminated they decided to put it all together. the nice sweep yesterday. it's good to see some fight. i'd like them to finish over .500, i'd like them to not

finish past. not going to october but finish with some pride. someone who is not off to a slow start today, steve kornacki is going to join us from the big board in just a minute. >> i've always said he's sort of the tom brady of the big screen. do you know what i mean? >> he is the only -- he is amazing. he is amazing. >> brady-esque. >> you never know when he is going to explode with rage. it's amazing. >> which is why you call him -- >> the rage. >> first we're going to get the latest on the news from nbc news senior correspondent hallie jackson. >> reporter: the kickoff this morning to a six-week sprint before election day, with vice president harris ramping up the pressure on former president trump to debate her again after she agreed to a second face-off in october. >> i would like another debate. we have a lot more to discuss. >> reporter: mr. trump so far has not accepted and in a new interview he's pledging if he loses the race this time he will not run again in 2028. >> i think that that will be -- that will be it.

i don't see that at all. i think hopefully we're going to be successful. >> reporter: mr. trump has repeatedly refused to accept his legitimate 2020 loss, now face ago double-digit gender gap as harris zeros in on reproductive rights, mr. trump is trying to make an appeal to women. >> women will be happy, healthy, confident and free. you will no longer be thinking about abortion because it is now where it always had to be, with the states. women, we love you, we're going to take care of you. >> reporter: notably absent at that campaign rally in north carolina, the state's republican candidate for governor, mark robinson as four of his top staffers including his campaign manager are resigning just days after explosive allegations reported by cnn that robinson made racist and lewd comments on a porn site, which he denies. mr. trump who has endorsed robinson making no mention of him saturday. his running mate, j.d. vance, in pennsylvania asked by nbc philadelphia if he believed

robinson's denials that he made the posts. >> i don't not believe you. i don't believe him. i think that you have to let these things sometimes play out. >> reporter: it comes as a nbc news poll voes vice president harris leading former president trump by five points, within the margin of error, but it also shows the vice president still trails mr. trump on the key issues of securing the border and the economy. >> i don't believe him but i don't not believe him. what is -- what is that even saying about a guy that, again, you know -- i won't even get into all the things he did, but -- >> yeah. let's bring in nbc's national correspondent political correspondent steve kornacki at the big board. steve, take us inside this new nbc news poll. >> yeah, some interesting ingredients that go into what you're seeing here, harris with a five-point advantage in our poll nationally over donald trump. the big picture of course is, look, we've been polling the 2024 race for a while now. this is the first one that nbc has polled with the harris/trump

matchup, all of the previous polls we did were biden versus trump and going back a year all of those biden/trump polls, four of them trump had the lead in, one of them was tied, so big picture here, this is an illustration of how much the race has transformed over the last two months. now, take a look in terms of what goes into that advantage for harris in this poll. one, a gender gap. among men trump with an advantage, a 12-point advantage for trump, among women 58-37, that is a 21-point advantage for kamala harris. what that adds up to is 21 and 12 a total gender gap of 33 points. now, if anything like that materializes on election day it would just blow away to 20 and 2016 which also had massive gender gaps, this would be significantly bigger than that. that margin among women for kamala harris, particularly younger women an important part

of that for her, helping power her in that lead that you see. then we break it down by race here among white voters 9-point advantage for trump. i think this one is significant, among black voters in our poll 85-7 harris. remember a lot of talk when joe biden was the candidate because there were a lot of numbers showing when biden is the candidate trump was somewhere in the teens among black voters. that doesn't sound like much but historically that would be very high for a republican and biden's number among black numbers when he was the candidate you were generally seeing somewhere in the 60s, even some polls in the 50s, it was a big area of slack for biden when he was the candidate. in our poll at least you see what would be a more sort of traditional number there for the democrats and for the republicans and among latino voters harris with a 19-point advantage. again, that would be lower for democrats than they typically get among latino voters, but, again, it is an improvement from

where joe biden was running. so that helps add up to that lead that you see for kamala harris. also take a look at this, the image of kamala harris since she became the candidate, this is just asking folks do you have a positive or negative view. you can see harris 48% a couple things stand out, she's the only one above water, slightly but higher positive than negative, everyone you see -- i should say walz is as well here, but harris the highest number at 48% above water. you see trump at 40, 53. when harris got into this race just before we asked the same question about her, her positive score this was back in july in our poll was just 32%. so it's gone from 32 to 48 since she became a candidate. trump's number more flat, we're used to seeing that for him. so a big jump for her. then there is this one. if you are a republican and you're looking to take heart in something in this poll, this would be it here.

asking about a number of issues and attributes the question asked here is which candidate would be better on and you can see, look, on securing the border, immigration, this rates as a very high concern voters say in our poll, a 21-point advantage for trump over harris. dealing with the economy, the economy and inflation, if you combine them, the top issue for voters in our poll, trump with a nine-point advantage there. you see some harris advantages here, i flagged this one because this was, remember, necessary mental and physical health to be president. this is where trump had that massive advantage over joe biden. this was basically reading as a question about age when biden was the candidate and that has completely turned around with harris as the democratic candidate. while these are trump advantages here and if these advantages do persist for him it certainly keeps nim in the game heading into the election. he had bigger advantages on these questions when biden was the candidate. on the border and on immigration

when biden was the candidate it was a 35-point edge for trump, it's 21 now. look, the economy when biden was the candidate, 22, it's 9 now. again, you're seeing the progress that harris has made from where biden was on a lot of these questions and with a lot of these groups. she is sort of -- we say there was slack in the democratic coalition, other issues, too. you can see that sort of repairing that is why she is ahead in our poll right now, though, again, as i say, the fact that trump still has these advantages on the border and on the economy, certainly do keep him in the game. >> you know, steve, it's interesting. you look at the question about the health, necessary mental and physical health, a 49-point shift there. i want to bring up another issue, though, that is -- i laughed when i saw it because for some reason i don't know why people who take polls before elections undervalue certain

issues that end up having a huge impact and overvalue others. i will tell you as you know better than me the border has always -- top of -- like in 2018 republicans ran on it, 2020 they ran on it, 2022 they ran on it, they demagogued it, looked like a huge issue, ended up not being that big of an issue. but abortion in 2022 before the election in polls just like this, 5%, 6% of people said abortion was the most important issue and then the exit polls started showing up in '22 and you saw it was a third of voters who actually saw that. in this poll i think you have the same thing where only 6% of respondents said that abortion was the top issue and yet we just know the history of elections since dobbs that it's going to play a much bigger impact than that. i'm curious do you have any

theories on why people undervalue that issue before the election and then on election day in '22, '23, it jumped so much? >> there's a couple ways of thinking about t i mean, my sort of take on it is if you think about the special elections that we've had since the dobbs decision in 2022, a special election for congress, that sort of thing, there was a big one on long island earlier this year, tom suozzi the democrat winning. i think it's pretty clear to me that abortion has been a major factor and the democrats doing consistently very well in these special elections. a big reason for that is in special elections the overall turnout tends to be lower, obviously much lower than it is like in a presidential election and so abortion becomes a big motivating factor and i think disproportionately gets democratic voters out to the polls in these special elections. i think it's a big reason why the democrats have had success

in the special elections. the question is raises is obviously when you get to a presidential election now you're talking, i don't know, 140, 150, maybe 160 million people voting in a presidential election, does it have that same sort of disproportionate effect when you have such a huge pool of voters? and the other question that i always just say about abortion, because i'm still sort of processing, i think, the politics of this, too, myself, but one thing that is in my mind at least a little bit in 2022, i think of georgia a lot. if you remember georgia in 2022, brian kemp, the republican governor, got reelected by 8 points, who are she will walker trump's hand-picked candidate for the u.s. senate in georgia was defeated. they both ran on the same ballot, two republicans, different results. it does stick out in my mind that, you know, in the post-dobbs world it's the governor who has more power on this question of abortion than the u.s. senator. it's the states who are setting the laws right now and kemp and walker had identical positions

on abortion and yet kemp was able to win in georgia while walker was defeated in the senate election. i've always had that one in my mind, too, that there was something else splitting the candidates. i thought in 2022 in georgia fs much more of a trump effect in the suburbs. this is about two years now, the exact effects of this dobbs decision, how they reshuffle things, do they motivate one particular group, young women maybe, still sort of sorting it out, but it's a major, major variable obviously heading into this one. >> yeah. definitely is. >> nbc's steve kornacki, thank you. i think it's more than young women honestly because if you have a daughter of childbearing age or if you are a man -- we're all worried about this. from one angle or another. >> i saw a focus group earlier this year where a libertarian said, well, wait a second, if i don't trust the federal government to handle my money, my health care, all these other things, why do i trust the

federal government to handle and control a woman's body. >> to save my daughter's life. >> which as libertarians said which means it will soon be my body. again, it's a concern for a lot of people. >> let's bring in professor of history at rice university and presidential historian doug brinkley, also with us columnist for the "washington post" dana milbank, he is the author ever the new book entitled "fools on the hill: the hooligans, saboteurs, conspiracy theorists and dunces who burned down the house." >> i have to say, dana, i always go to presidential historians first, i'm a sucker for presidential historians. this is going to be the exception this morning, only because what we've been talking about for the first couple of hours on this show and this is the mainstream media and the

anti-anti-trumpsters trying to flatten this race out. you read columns in the "wall street journal," in the "new york times" this weekend, the argument is basically this, well, yes, donald trump may have tried to overthrow a presidential election and started riots on january 6 that family members believe led to the death of four police officers, but kamala harris told a story about her childhood in a local philadelphia interview before getting to a very detailed three-part answer on what she would do for struggling americans. >> i mean, it wasn't the we -- >> i swear to god i'm not exaggerating, a pulitzer prize winner on the "wall street journal," a guy whom i respect

and a guy i respect very much in the "new york times," this was their argument. >> it's a zany world that we live in. of course, when biden was the nominee it would be, yeah, the one guy tried to overturn a presidential election, but, man that is correct other guy is pretty old. what i've tried to do in this book is put it into some perspective so you can actually look at the numbers of this congress. it is on course right now and it's almost over, i mean, we're going to have the lame duck now, to be the least productive congress since 1860, 165 years. so that says these are not normal times that we're living in, you know, there have been divided governments before, you know, you and i came to washington around the time of the republican revolution. you guys were fighting like cats and dogs then and you had triple the productivity that these guys have today. so we're going back to the time when the union was dissolving to

have an equivalent to what's going on today. so i think it's useful to keep that in perspective. that's what i tried to do in this book, just to sort of a compendium of the crazy, of all the zany things that happened over the last two years and that could actually become reality if trump and speaker johnson are in power together. >> yeah, jonathan lemire, i mean, dana is exactly right. when we got there we were fighting like cats and dogs. bill clinton did not like us. we did not like bill clinton. and yet we balanced the budget four years in a row together, we passed welfare reform, we passed a lot of things that made a huge difference. the economy grew. 20 million jobs were created. and that was with two parties that were fighting nonstop. we still got things done. that just doesn't happen

anymore. >> no, it does not. it's been a remarkably ineffective session here. look, president biden's first two years some bipartisan success, the infrastructure bill, the infrastructure bill on top of the list, but that has completely stopped as we moved into basically this election cycle and early 2023 under the leadership of speaker johnson. unproductive and to use dana's word zany indeed. so, professor brinkley, let's get you in on the state of the race right now because there are two things, look, the polls suggest a very close race. the trend lines do favor the vice president, but these leads are very narrow. we're basically talking about a margin of error race with six weeks to go. it's a toss-up. but part of that is because to joe's point there has been an attempt to normalize, to flatten out, to sane wash what we're seeing from donald trump by the media. yes, parts of it certainly his allies and for voters who really only pay attention in the last little bit, that's what they're seeing. >> yeah, and i'm sorry all

americans can't take a look at the heinous document of the project 2025 that the heritage foundation gave birth to and that's a blueprint for the future of the republican party and our country. if you really took time to read it you would be so far away from donald trump you wouldn't know what to do. i mean, other moments in american history, you know, warren harding at his inaugural in 1921 tried to execute a similar plan, which is corporations take over, get rid of all regulators, get rid of civil servants and what happened? harding's administration got mired in scandal and eventually, you know, we remember harding for the teapot dome scandal. nixon tried it in '73, he was fairly progressive liberal his first term, second term after he won he was -- he got rid of all the cabinet and he was going hard to do a similar kind of plan and reagan in '81 did. they all back off because it's

nutty stuff if you took the time to read that project. right now we almost all know that harris is going to win the popular vote, we're all now looking at that electoral college again and those handful of states like we did in 2000 and like we did in 2020 and 2016. >> yeah, there's conventional wisdom suggests she might have to win by three or four points in the popular vote to hang on to the electoral college. dana, it looks like congress is going to avoid a shutdown right before the election and if that is indeed the case that's a rare moment of sanity for the legislative body that you have deemed with its very unsubtle title "fools on the hill: the hooligans, saboteurs, conspiracy theorists and dunces who burned down the house." tell us a little more about your new book. >> i wouldn't exactly call it a victory what's happening this week is they had a six-week summer vacation, they came back and fiddled around for a couple

weeks, now we're going to be bailed out by the democrats to keep the government open so they can go home for another six weeks and have the fight again in december. i've tried to compile sort of the zany things you've heard little bits about it throughout the year but when you put it all together it's pretty overwhelming, whether talking about lauren boebert grilling people on public urination, her "beetlejuice" groping moment, you know, howling obscenities at joe biden on the house floor during the state of the union, getting into fist fights within the republican caucus in the house basement, looking into deep state conspiracy theories, you know, that involve space aliens that was supposedly suppressed by mussolini and the vatican. you know, all this truly zany stuff, but there's also a really serious undertone here. and doug is right about project 2025 but you don't even have to look at that, uks just look at what these guys have tried to do and a majority of them voted to

abolish the department of education, to restore the names of confederate monuments generals on military bases, most of them have opposed funding for ukraine, most of them have signed on to a nationwide abortion ban. so that's -- i mean, that's the agenda right there. it's also laughed off as a poison pill at this moment, but if you have a maga republican congress and a president trump, suddenly this becomes reality. >> the new book "fools on the hill: the hooligans, saboteurs, conspiracy theorists and dunces who burned down the house" is on sale tomorrow. "washington post" columnist daa milbank, thank you very much. >> doug brinkley, before we let you go what's at stake with about 45 days left? what's at stake? >> american democracy, nothing less. donald trump is a usurper of democracy, he is a wrecking ball. you've been talking today

rightfully reminding people of january 6 but the hellscape he has developed of dividing our country, we have a chance to unite, kamala harris is doing an incredible job, momentum is her way and i think it's just getting some more young people engaged and north carolina is the state -- i know everybody is waiting on pennsylvania -- north carolina is really interesting that harris has a chance of winning there, but the big moment is october 1, it's going to be the most important vice presidential debate i think in u.s. history when we put walz against vance. that's coming our way and it may be the last chance trump has if somehow vance can score points and get an edge out of that. >> doug, what do you say to people and bill maher talked about this this weekend that say you can't suggest that donald trump is a threat to american democracy -- >> that's violent rhetoric. >> -- or else that's violent rhetoric as dan hinninger

basically blamed democrats of trying to kill donald trump, not talking about donald trump's violent rhetoric. what would you say to those who say you can't even suggest that donald trump doing all that he did is a threat to democracy or else you are engaing in political hate speech? >> well, it's nonsense. i'm a practicing catholic when i see somebody like donald trump get shot in the ear or what almost happened at mar-a-lago, your prayers go out for him because you honor all humans, but if you are talking about the danger, the inherent danger of donald trump, he's radioactive. he wants to come in and gut government because it's rhetoric that sounds good. you start trying to get rid of civil service, collapse the federal government, you are going to find a country in disarray. it's a larger problem that the federal government hasn't educated the public enough to know all the incredible things somebody who works for the environmental protection agency does for clean water, what we do for clean air.

we don't talk enough about flight safety and -- but when you start just willy-nilly saying you're going to wipe out a department of education nobody each knows what that means. to try it and get successful particularly with the supreme court which trump sees as a rubber stamp and with the new prerogative the courts gave them that presidents are above the lauer walking into a doomsday scenario if trump gets in. people better wake up, take the smelling salt and pay attention right now these next days are going to be fast. >> professor of history at rice university doug brinkley, thank you so much. >> thank you, sir. >> let's just be very specific on a few things, when you say that your chairman of the joint chiefs should be executed because he is insufficiently loyal. when you say that mike pence deserves hanging according to mark meadows and also your top

legal counsel on january 6, and you say liz cheney should be put before a military tribunal for treason, and also say that media companies should be found guilty of treason and that he's going to move all of the power of -- of the fcc into the white house and decide who can be on tv and who can't be on tv based on politics, dictator on day one, i think that understates it. >> people who died for our country are losers. i mean, that should stop you right there. >> i mean, the thing is -- and i do ask this sincerely, if those things that i said that i brought up, and all the other things that he has said to undermine madisonian democracy, if they are not threats to democracy then i ask what is?

i really am genuinely curious, genuinely curious what these people who are saying donald trump is not a threat to democracy and, oh, we survival four years of donald trump, yes, we survival in spite of his best efforts to overthrow the 2020 presidential election. >> the second time would be different. coming up as kamala harris crisscrosses the country on the campaign trail, she also has been making a q play for corporate america's support. cnbc's andrew ross sorkin joins us to explain the vice president's attempts to win over wall street. >> by the way, we survived in spite of donald trump. you just have to say it again. >> in spite of, yes. also ahead, israel has launched extensive strikes on hezbollah, hitting 300 targets today alone. we will get a live report from nbc's richard engel next. that's straight ahead on

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time now for a look at some of the other stories making headlines this morning. ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy is set to present a victory plan to president biden. zelenskyy also intends to meet with vice president kamala harris and donald trump. one key component of ukraine's strategy is a push for western allies to sign off on the use of long-range missiles to strike targets inside russian territory. americans will be able to order free covid tests starting in month. households will be able to order as many as four nasal swab tests and the kids will be mailed directly to their homes. the website which is not yet actively processing orders is covid tests.gov. and eight bulls escaped a rodeo pen in a massachusetts mall parking lot yesterday.

>> i hate when this happens. >> north attleboro fire and police rushed to contain the stampede with help from members of the new england rodeo. believe it or not they were running all over town, nobody was injured. >> thank god. >> there was some nearby fencing damaged, but they were all corralled into a backyard and into the back of a truck, it was an amazing moment. really scary, ended very well. the "wall street journal" reports vice president harris has been making an effort to win over the support of corporate america. according to the paper, that'ser, quote, a different approach than the one taken by biden who business leaders say didn't make a concerted effort to engage them beyond formal meetings. >> let's bring in co-anchor of cnbc's "squawk box" andrew ross sorkin. this is a fascinating story because we all heard, you heard it for eight years with barack obama that he would call in business round table people then as he would do with his generals tell them how to do their jobs

better and we heard this -- i heard it for eight years. i thought joe biden was going to be a little bit different because he's from delaware, but a lot of the same complaints from business leaders that they didn't feel like -- other than gina raimondo they didn't feel like they had a partner inside of the biden administration. interesting, though, kamala harris so far in her campaign has apparently been listening to business leaders, she adjusted the capital gains tax rate, she's done some other things that, again, a lot of people wouldn't have expected from her just three months ago. >> well, the truth is actually behind the scenes she's been meeting even before she became the de facto -- the nominee, she had been holding a whole number of informal off the record meals and other meetings with ceos in a way that, frankly, president biden himself had not been engaged in.

you talked about obama earlier and the sort of frustration that ceos had with him. i think with biden it was even more pronounced because the view was that there was almost no contact, there was no real interaction so to see her with this kind of outreach i think is meaningful to some extent to the business community and i will note that in this "wall street journal" report which you are noting, the kicker of the story, who was sitting at the table just three days after she became the nominee, well, judy dimon, the wife of jamie dimon, the ceo of jpmorgan chase. i mention that because there's been lots of speculation about whether jamie dimon could ultimately become the treasury secretary. some people speculated he would become the treasury secretary under president trump, i think i said it before i think that's very unlikely. do i think there's a chance it could happen under a harris administration? that seems a lot more likely. >> interesting.

cnbc's andrew ross sorkin. thank you very much. we will see you tomorrow. we continue to monitor the escalating tensions in the middle east. lebanon's health ministry announced israeli air strikes today have killed more than 180 people and injured another 700. israel says it hit 300 hezbollah targets as it launches extensive strikes against its northern neighbor. >> let's bring in nbc news chief foreign correspondent richard engel live from northern israel. richard, i'm getting emails, texts from people excited about the fact that israel expanding this war and hitting targets, but i explain -- and you can actually -- but i explain, and you can actually put meat on the bones, one of those targets killed 240 marines in the early '80s the last time something like this happened in lebanon. talk about the escalation that

is happening and the long-term threat not only to israel, not only to lebanon, but to the region and the world. >> reporter: so i will tell you -- i will start with from israel's perspective and those are probably some of the excited calls that you're getting, people in this country felt or many people did, anyway, that this was inevitable. that israel for the last year has been focused on fighting against hamas in gaza, hamas almost exactly a year ago, it will soon be the one-year anniversary launched the october 7 surprise attack, caught israel, caught the intelligence services, caught the military completely flatfooted and that israel has been trying to recover from that catastrophic mistake when hostages were taken, it has been going after hamas, and throughout this year there has been a drip, drip, drip, low-level war in solidarity with gaza, in

solidarity with hamas, launched against northern israel, where i am right now predominantly, by hezbollah. many in this country believed it was just a matter of time that israel needed to at least not finish the gaza campaign, but get a handle on the gaza campaign before it could shift its attention to hezbollah and that's what we're seeing right now. but there are many others. i just spoke with an arab head of state who believes that this is all about benjamin netanyahu. that this is all short-term thinking that netanyahu does not want to face the consequences for what happened a year ago, that he wants to continue to prolong the war, that he is taking advantage of a leadership vacuum in the united states right now because we are in this long political transition because president biden bowed out of the race and now we're getting down to the wire and then there is still the lame duck period before the actual inauguration that president --

that prime minister netanyahu is using this in order to launch a new war, a new campaign, that it will be much easier to reach some sort of ceasefire. hezbollah has said time and time again it will stop its campaign against israel if there is a ceasefire in gaza, but right now there is no ceasefire. there is an escalating military campaign. i don't know if you can hear behind me, there are israeli jets circling this area. we just heard israel's iron dome system deploy over haifa a few minutes ago and this seems to be escalating by the day. i think it really began last week with those devastating attacks, surprise attacks, against the communications network used by hezbollah. that was a serious blow. it set them back in a tremendous way. hezbollah operatives don't know if they can trust their devices and now it seems that israel is pushing its advantage to try to take out as many military

targets as possible and according to some very senior arab leaders in the region, doing it at a time when the united states is focused on domestic issues. the israeli military says its jets targeted hezbollah positions this morning. lebanese media report more than 80 air strikes hit the western valley and southern lebanon. the israeli military also released this video claiming it prevented hezbollah from launching a powerful cruise missile at israel. asked if he's worried about rising tension in the middle east, president biden saying -- >> yes, i am, but we're going to do everything we can to keep a wider war from breaking out. >> reporter: in beirut as hezbollah buried one of its top military leaders yesterday, killed by the most intense israeli strikes on the lebanese capital in nearly two decades, hezbollah says it's ready for a new open-ended war. this weekend hezbollah launched more than 100 rockets, drones

and missiles at northern israel, most of them shot down by israeli defenses, but a few made it through. hezbollah rocket hit these homes causing extensive damage and now israel is bracing for an escalation. ordering all schools across northern israel closed and declaring this entire area a no fly zone. this man was at home near the blast and told me he ran to a shelter with his 5-year-old granddaughter and that the girl and nearly everyone else in the village has left. from a balcony upstairs you can see the crater where the rocket exploded in the middle of the street. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu says israel is now shifting focus to hezbollah. we hit hezbollah with a string of strikes it didn't imagine. if hezbollah didn't get the message, i promise you, it will get the message, he said. netanyahu appears to have been

hinting at responsibility for audacious attacks on hezbollah last week when thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by the group suddenly exploded. a plot one u.s. official described to nbc news as james bond stuff. and, joe, back to the question you initially asked, you are a lover of history, the historic context here is very important. once you start a war, particularly in this region where everything is interconnected, it is very difficult to know where this is going to go. in the 1980s israel launched a war against militants, then palestinian militants, in lebanon and israeli troops next found themselves in beirut, occupying the country, when u.s. forces were there supporting them, suddenly the u.s. became a target of a new group that formed, hezbollah, and things have spiraled from there over the recent decades. so israel believes now that it

is targeting hezbollah rocket launching sites and cruise missile sites, israel specifically warned lebanese civilians to go away from any potential hezbollah target, but things here can escalate and can take on their own momentum and at this stage it doesn't seem like israel is ready for a ground invasion, but it is very possible that in the coming days or weeks we see one. >> nbc's richard engel, thank you very much. and we turn now from that to the latest on the war in ukraine. poland's foreign minister is stressing the importance of continuing to support the country more than two and a half years since russia began its invasion. >> putin is counting on our fatigue, lack of resolve and determination, but he miscalculated. let me, therefore, take this opportunity to once again to thank all of you on this side of

the atlantic who have provide the help. we, poland, will do whatever it takes not to become a russian colony again, whatever anybody else does. >> that speech was featured at the brez en ski lecture series at the hopkins-bloomberg center in washington, d.c. it's part of a initiative which was established at the johns hopkins school of advanced international studies in order of -- in honor of my father's legacy. the series invites the world's preeminent thinkers to reflect on and address the growing international challenges of our time. and poland's foreign minister joins us is now. he was formerly the nation's minister of national defense. great to have you on the show this morning. >> hello, mika. >> let's continue with that thought about how the concept of

just how long people in poland, the members of nato, the support for ukraine can continue. certainly in poland there is a shared history and a sense of -- there is absolutely no way that they would want to see nato and its allies back down to vladimir putin. >> and as bris inn ski was a strong supporter of ukraine and independence. poland is spesing 4.3% of its gdp this year, 4.7% next year and in nato the great majority of countries are now above the 2% of gdp threshold in spending on defense, but we need to stay the course. this war will only end when putin decides that the invasion was a mistake and that he cannot achieve his aims at an

acceptable cost. and he's not at that point yet. but his economy and his ability to send hundreds of thousands of russians to their deaths are not infinite. if we stay the course, this war can be ended by restoring international law, restoring international borders. >> mr. foreign minister, president zelenskyy will be in the united states all week long. he went to an ammunition plant in pennsylvania yesterday, he will be in new york for the general assembly and then meeting with president biden and vice president harris in washington later this week. he is supposed to present a victory plan, but there are some on both sides of the aisle mere in the situates worry that it will be impossible to restore ukraine's previous borders, that russia is simply too dug in. do you think it is feasible? >> i don't think it's up to me to speculate on this. what we need to do is give president zelenskyy the means to change putin's calculations and

the means to do that are financial. ukraine has an indigenous defense industry that is short of resources that has some spare capacities and a few billion dollars in euros could help them a lot. so that putin understands he can't win. ukraine has taken the war to russia's territory, so clearly even russian propagandists are beginning to realize that this is not going according to plan. those who want peace should be calling on both countries to withdraw their forces to the international line. >> you've talked about the need for a braver approach by the united states. what does that braver approach look like? >> well, it primarily means more weapons and fewer restrictions on their use. i was in kyiv ten days ago, before that in ukraine, in lviv,

saw the damage done by russian missiles, launched by bombers over russian territory and they take off from russian air fields and ukraine has every right to defend itself by striking those air fields and taking out those bombers over russian territory. >> thank you very much for being on the show this morning. it's good to see you, sir. thank you. >> my pleasure. all right. coming up, a new docuseries offers unprecedented access into how teenagers are navigating social media, and some of the revelations are alarming. we will speak with the emmy winning filmmaker behind the project about what she uncovered next on "morning joe." we're back in two minutes. uncod next on "morngni joe." we're back in two minutes. et ya. my name is david. i've been a pharmacist for 44 years. when i have customers come in and ask for something for memory, i recommend prevagen. number one, because it's effective.

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if you put out content like kim kardashian did, maybe you will get famous. >> my social media consumption is 12 hours a day. >> you edit your body to be something it's not. >> one of the major beauty centers is you kind of have to be caucasian. >> people would just call you the "n" word so i took action and they took my whole account down. >> it's frightening to see how sexualized some of those images are. i sort of don't want to look at my kids' tiktok. >> gorgeous. >> the more time i spend on social media the more anxious i feel. >> it is so scary that we are allowed to actually do this.

>> social media has a role in everything, doesn't it? that was a look at the new fx docuseries entitled "social studies." this ground breaking social experiment offers unprecedented access into the digital lives of teens in los angeles, the first generation raised on social media, exposing the profound impact on their development and mental health. joining us now is award winning documentary filmmaker lauren greenfield, she is the series creator, director and executive producer. thank you so much for doing this. >> oh, thanks for having me. >> where do we begin? give us some examples of what you found. what surprised you going into this? what you thought you would find versus what you found? >> i mean, i think one of the most important things about the series is the kids involved shared their phones and so we had the chance, which we never

normally do, of actually seeing what's impacting them, which is so important. and i think what i saw is that it's completely changed childhood that in some ways there is no more innocence because of the exposure, but i think more than anything the kids participated because they wanted to tell us what's going on. they wanted their voices to be heard. >> they were unbelievably candid in this series. let's take a listen to their comments about what many see as the holy grail of social media, going viral. >> who in here has gone viral? show of hands. oh, my gosh, everybody has gone viral. >> are w. like kim k, she got famous for the sex tape. so with platforms with tiktok where anybody can get famous that's like if you put out content like kim kardashian did, maybe you will get famous. >> if i could become a multimillionaire with a giant company and like be as famous as kim kardashian i would release my sex tape.

a sex tape. >> she is all set up now. >> she's super famous, she has millions of dollars, her own company, so does all of her family. >> there wouldn't be a conversation like this ever if there weren't phones and social media and it's happening younger. they're getting exposed to everything so much younger. what do you think the impact of this will be and do you foresee any major legal action? >> i think that what we learned from the kids is how toxic the constant comparison is. that they're living in a world of 24/7 comparison and teenagehood always was about looking at your peers, who was in your click, but now the kids are looking at the entire world and fictionalized manufactured images that they are then comparing themselves to. what we saw even in our small group was an explosion of body image issues, eating disorders, mental health problems, suicidal

ideation and just the constant pressure. i call it the algorithm pressure which has replaced peer pressure and i do think that the kids give us a kind of map of what can be done about this. >> lauren, obviously so important and so dangerous this idea of the -- trying to project that image on to the world, that unrealistic image, but also another part of this is bullying, right? what did they tell but that? >> there are a lot of stories about bullying over race, about slut shaming and what the kids say is with the anonymity of social media there's so much more kind of harmful talk. even in the stories there's a vigilante who starts taking action against all of the kind of bad things that are said on social media and bad things that are done in the world, but i think the important thing here is that we can't blame the kids. i think that here we see it from the kids' point of view and it's a very nonjudgmental point of

view and i think we can't expect kids to self-regulate. we need regulation. we need, you know, tech companies to take action. >> the first two episodes of the weekly docuseries "social studies" premieres this friday on fx and each one streams the next day on hulu. creator, director and executive producer lauren greenfield, thank you so much for doing this. this is such important work. thank you for coming on the show this morning. and that does it for us this morning. ana cabrera picks up the coverage in one minute. ana cabrera picks up the coverage in one minute meric because it helps with healthy joints and inflammation support. why qunol? it has superior absorption compared to regular turmeric. qunol. the brand i trust.

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