bile was designed for where you need it most. xfinity internet customers, ask how to get a free 5g phone and a second unlimited line free for a year. right now "andrea mitchell reports," with six weeks to go until the election, our new poll confirming a five-point harris lead within the margin of error, but shows an historic boost in her favorability rating since she got the nomination and that voters see her as an agent of change even though she's the sitting vice president. and battleground states still show trump has a pathway to victory. on the trail this week, the vice president preparing to spell out her economic policies in a big

speech. and today, the former president heading back to battleground pennsylvania. the suspect makes an appearance in court. all that is more than 100 world leaders descend on new york for the u.n. general assembly's annual meeting and despite the recent escalation between israel and hezbollah, iran's new president today telling me and a group of american journalists here that nobody, including iran, would win a wider war. good day, everyone. i'm andrea mitchell reporting from new york. it is more than 100 foreign leaders are gathering here for the annual meeting of the united nations general assembly. president biden is arriving tonight, ahead of his big speech to the world body tomorrow morning. but we begin with a major reshaping of the race for the

white house. with early voting now under way in many states, the latest nbc news national poll showing just how much president harris -- vice president harris' candidacy transformed this contest. her favorability rating jumped 16 points since july. that is the largest of any presidential candidate in the poll's history. and the largest jump of any politician since george w. bush in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. vice president harris also pulling ahead in the national head to head matchup. but with 43 days to go, this race remains locked in a tie, within the margin of error, especially in key battlegrounds. and despite the trend lines in harris' favor, donald trump still leads on the key issues of the economy and the cost of living. combined 41% of registered voters saying those two issues are the most important to them. so let's go inside the numbers now with two of the smartest political brains we know, nbc

national political correspondent steve kornacki and nbc news senior political editor mark murray. steve, take it away. these are major reversals. >> yeah, i mean, when you see, as you said there, harris five points up on trump in our national poll here, to put that in some perspective, take a look, we're going back a year in time here. this is the first time we, our nbc poll, tested harris and trump. it had been biden before this. and just take a look, the biden versus trump results we found going back a year tied trump by two, trump by five, trump by two, trump by two. and now all of a sudden you have harris by five in our latest poll, so, again, just big picture how much the very basic dynamics of this race changed when kamala harris became the democratic candidate and joe biden stepped aside, about two months ago. you mentioned it as well, take a look at this, the general impression that voters have of kamala harris. asking that question, is it positive or is it negative? and it was, 32% positive for

kamala harris. we polled this right before she got in the race in july, she was at 32% positive then. she is up to 48% positive now. notably that's above water, slightly higher positive than negative. of course, you compare that to donald trump, 40, 53, 40 positive, 53 negative. that's territory we're used to seeing trump in right there. and by the way, again, biden, obviously still the president, but this is the kind of number here that democrats had been saddled with with joe biden as their candidate. low positive, high negative. and now you can see harris running significantly here above biden on that positive/negative. and there is also this question, again, getting to perceptions that voters have of the candidates, which candidate better represents change in our poll. 47/38, the advantage for harris over trump right there. and perhaps a bit of a surprising finding, trump former president himself, but harris the incumbent vice president, in what is still an unpopular

administration. but more -- seen by more as the candidate representing change than donald trump at the moment. >> and, mark murray, there is now a 43 point gap with harris doubling joe biden's lead in july among women, but she still is having trouble with men. so what does this have to do with -- do you think it is misogyny, the abortion issue is pulling more with women than men, even though, of course, both men and women are affected. how do you read it? >> we had a sizable gender gap in the 2016 and 2020 presidential election. there was one that already exists, but 33% -- 33 point swing, if that ends up holding would be historic and could end up representing one of the major story lines of this election, but we're going to have to see what the final data shows on that exit poll. what we actually are finding in the ballot test between trump and harris is that harris is doing better, particularly with

black voters than joe biden was right before he bowed out. harris is doing better, particularly also among younger voters. and among women. but some of the groups that actually haven't changed and i do think this is interesting, independents haven't moved that much. and latinos, so far, haven't moved that much from the support of joe biden back in july versus harris now. >> in fact, the latino vote is so important to her in georgia and in pennsylvania. pennsylvania has a very large latino vote. right now in pennsylvania, it is so close, in the senate race, in fact, it is now in some polls just in the last couple of days a tie between the veteran, well known bob casey, father was behind him, you know, an office holder and so popular and dave mccormick. what do you see going on in pennsylvania? >> andrea, we actually in the past week have received so many different polls when it comes to pennsylvania, and you're

actually right. some of them show a tied race with the presidential level, very close contest on that key senate race that you were just identifying. but there have been other pennsylvania polls that shows harris with a slight lead, but within the margin of error. i think at this point with two months to go, a lot of us are identifying pennsylvania as that potential tipping point state, whoever ends up winning pennsylvania could very well end up having the edge in the race to 270 electoral college votes. >> steve, i want to ask you about the economy and the those who say the economy is the most important issue facing them, there is a disparity in the trump and biden records in the economy. but at the same time, we have reweighted the polls since the last couple of cycles where we realized that national polls were underestimating the trump vote. had they fixed that problem, do you think? >> well, have they fixed it?

we don't know until election night. though i would say the problem in polling that we had in the last two elections, that i've seen is it is more state specific and sort of geographic and demographic specific which is to say when we say there have been big polling misses in the last couple of elections, it is not like every single -- the polling in every state was off by 4, 5, 6, points, it was really off in the upper midwest, states like wisconsin, states like michigan, a state like pennsylvania. not so much last time around in a state like georgia or in a state like arizona. and it seems that in those sort of great lakes states if you want to call them that, the big ten states, whatever term you want to apply, there was that sort of -- there was a trump vote there, a blue collar white trump voter, it was undercounted in the polls. there was a change in the polling between 16 and 20 that was designed to account for that in the 2020 election. didn't seem to account for it

properly. 2022, a lot of the polls that missed badly in '20 held up better. the variable that was missing in 2022 was donald trump actually being on the ballot. he of course, back on the ballot in 2024. it is one of those big, big questions you got to think about every time you see a poll, especially in those midwest states there, and one that, you know, i think heading into the election is just -- it is one of the huge variables. >> and then there is the bradley effect and we didn't see it so much with barack obama, but how many people don't want to say how they really feel about a black candidate, black or woman of color, south asian background, and that relates back to mayor bradley in l.a., years and years ago. so, again, we don't know what we don't know. but this is a snapshot, and a useful one. steve kornacki, mark murray, thank you to both of you. in 90 seconds, a live report from israel as a new wave of israeli strikes hit southern

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killed today by israeli strikes. more than 1,000 wounded. over the weekend, hezbollah launched more than 100 rockets and drones and missiles into northern israel, most of them shot down by the idf, but some did make it through to cities like haifa. president biden asked sunday about the situation in the middle east. >> are you worried about rising tensions in the middle east? >> yes, i am. >> the state department is now warning americans to leave lebanon while commercial options are still available. joining us now from haifa, in northern israel, nbc's chief foreign correspondent richard engel and david ignatius for "the washington post." first to you, israelwarning lebanese civilians to evacuate. they're not stopping, both directions. >> it doesn't seem that way.

it seems like the train toward war has left the station. and when you see what is happening in northern israel, i was at a hospital earlier today, and for the first time since the hospital was built, fortified hospital was conceived of during the last israel lebanon war in 2006, so the first time ever since then, they're moving all of the patients down below. every single one into a fortified underground structure. they have declared all of israel -- many people have evacuated the area. they have told israeli officials have said and told the lebanese public that the air strikes will not stop. israel already said what its war aims are. israel says that it wants to make it so that israeli citizens can return to northern israel, areas like where i am right now. many of them have left because

of persistent hezbollah rocket fire. they want the military capabilities to be diminished and they want to see hezbollah pushed back from the israeli border, generally that's considered north of the la tawny river. these are very broad aims to try and get hezbollah to leave southern lebanon, to stop hezbollah rocket fire. these are war-like objectives. so far negotiations have not acleaved those objectives. so israel says and israeli officials have been saying this all day, that they have no other choice but to pursue this war that it has begun and it is going to keep going, at least an air war, until those three objectives are met. >> so david ignatius, what is israel's strategy here because by going after hezbollah, some critics, skeptics are saying they're risking a war possibly on three fronts in gaza and

lebanon to the north and the west bank, which is becoming increasingly violent. >> so, andrea, on one level, israel is very straightforward, it wants its citizens to be able to move back into the towns and villages in the north that have been depopulated since hezbollah began firing rockets on those areas, october 8th, after the hamas attack from gaza. i think the problem the israelis are facing as i said in other context is that once you start trying to dismantle a hornet's nest, it is hard to stop. you keep getting stung. it is just very, very difficult process to do a little bit. i think that israel's dilemma is that it may keep bombing, raising the level of attacks in lebanon, toward the level of 2006, which shattered much of the infrastructure of lebanon.

but in the end, to really stop this threat, to its northern border, it may have to invade lebanon, which is the last thing israel wants to do. i was in lebanon in 1982, israeli troops invaded and i think most analysts would agree it was really a set back for israel's security in the long run. it is interesting the head of hezbollah today was taunting israel to invade. go ahead and invade, because he knows that in many ways that would be a trap. >> and, of course, the question is what is iran going to do? the iranian president said today to a group of us sitting with him off camera but on the record that a wider war doesn't help anyone, that even they lose from a wider war, they don't want a wider war. but, he kept referring to the fact that israel did assassinate the hamas leader in the iranian capital at his inauguration. so, the provocations as they see it are all there.

so, richard engel, you know, the pentagon is saying today this is new, a small number of additional u.s. military personnel are being sent to augment our forces already in the middle east. is the table set for a wider war? >> reporter: i think we're already in a wider war. and we have already been in a wider war for a year. there have been attempts to contain it for the last year israel has been fighting against hamas in gaza. and that war has been devastating. and most of the gaza strip, i was in gaza with the israeli military a couple of weeks ago, most of gaza is now obliterated and unhabitable. i was in rafa, there is nothing left. and so the -- the amount of resistance that israeli troops are facing is also less. so now they are focusing on the north and the goal is obvious. they want to return israeli citizens to this part of the

country. once you start a war, and once you start exchanging fire with a group like hezbollah, where does it end? iran has already warned of, quote, dangerous consequences for what it called israel's adventurism into lebanon. if israel invades lebanon it would be fighting a ground war on two fronts. one in gaza, which is now israeli troops are just combing through rubble, waiting, trying to find tunnels looking for the last potential surviving hostages there. and then moving into lebanon, a very difficult terrain, in 2006 israel struggled in lebanon, and it didn't have another campaign that it was dealing with. plus, as you mentioned, the west bank, where there is a very large and growing problem with the palestinians who are increasingly leaning toward hamas, who feel that the settlers in that part of the country are taking advantage of the situation, to steal

palestinian land. you have iran that has attacked israel. this could escalate very quickly to many fronts. >> and, david, hezbollah, of course, is iran's proxy. it is insurance policy, if you will, it is referred to that way. senator lindsey graham is making this a political issue in this campaign, pushing hard for action against iran. let's listen. >> to my friends in israel, you're fighting the proxies, fight the source. the great satan, iran. to the biden administration, you let run -- iran run wild. you have given them $80 billion of relief on sanctions, they're rich, they're running wild, and now is the time to hit the source of the problem, the iranians. >> i want to fact check that. the $80 billion was iranian money that was frozen and for a prisoner exchange. so, that was getting u.s. prisoners home from iran. but is senator graham opening up

a very big political issue, a talking point against harris? >> well, it is -- so, it is an election year and that's an election year comment. the last thing that the middle east needs is an even wider war that pits the u.s., israel, iran and let's fold in syria, yemen, iraq, you know, the whole region. surely that's not the wise course. the challenge, andrea, is the same one the administration has been facing now for nearly a year. starting on october 8th, when hezbollah first attacked israel, the administration said to israel don't expand the war, let's try to contain this. the administration had extensive secret diplomacy with iran, contacts in person and through intermediaries saying cool it, don't expand it, don't widen it. the problem is we end up here today with as richard said, a

wider war. it is happening. and i think if the biden administration wants to have any credibility in these remaining months, it has got to figure out a way to augment its diplomacy. this is the week of the u.n. general assembly, the week when we ought to be able to harness diplomacy for good purposes, if ever there was a time do that, it is right now. >> thanks to both of you. we really appreciate it. next, we return to florida as we learn more about the latest attempt against donald trump's life as the suspect appears in court today and could face more charges. plus, with new battleground polls out today what are the chances of another debate before the election? a deep dive into the 2024 campaign next. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports." this is msnbc. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports. this is msnbc. ♪ ♪ we're loving life when we're together ♪ ♪ me and my friends ♪ ♪♪ ♪ we feel the height of lustful life ♪ ♪ when we're together ♪

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new details on the investigation around the assassination attempt against donald trump of his florida golf course. the suspect, ryan routh, back in federal court this morning, as court documents show he declared in a letter, quote, this was an assassination attempt. investigators say they have found that routh spent a month scooping -- scoping the sites where mr. trump might be, including that golf course, where he was hiding in the bushes before the secret service spotted him, hiding there for hours. joining us now, nbc news national law enforcement and intelligence correspondent tom

winter, also with us, joyce vance, former u.s. attorney. investigators released that letter. they say he wrote it. tell us more. that's why we're no longer calling it an apparent assassination attempt. in his writing, he says it was. >> that's right. of course, all along, nobody thought he brought a long gun, a semi-automatic rifle to the trump golf course for any other reason other than potential threat to donald trump. so, that's at least a little bit more detail now why the fbi was saying what it was saying. so they have this additional detail, apparently came up from an individual who received a box of documents, ammunition, and building materials from routh, a month before this alleged shooting -- before the incident involving the secret service took place and so he has this box of documents, and after he finds out about routh's alleged role that day, he looks through it and finds this letter. and in the letter, according to federal prosecutors, he does reference an assassination attempt on donald trump and says he's sorry that he failed.

so, it is not clear why i wri s this is a failed assassination before he undergoes this potential effort. he hasn't been charged with, but people assume he was there to carry out a violent attack against donald trump a little over a week ago. that is a question involving the timing of all this. there is a call to action and other things in the letter we're not going to share because there so no reason to encourage some type of potential violence but that's the focus on this letter. and cell phone data that came up shows he went to mar-a-lago and this golf course on several different occasions, had a list of events or places where donald trump was anticipated to be or where he had already been. there was some planning, federal prosecutors in their documents are to be believed here and no indication or reason not to believe them, that he had gone under a lot of planning and awareness of where donald trump was.

we have been in it now for about 90 minutes if it started on time. to walk people through the logistics of it and housekeeping, the courtroom is closed, reporters are not allowed to leave until the hearing is over and there is no sort of live stream or update from the court. so that's the reason why we're a little bit in the dark as far as what is anticipated to happen here. there is no indication routh will be let out pending trial. >> and joyce vance, people will be watching all day on our reporting as details come out. what could the charges be? >> right, so there is the possibility that the government could bring charges involving an attempt to assassinate a former president or i think the more likely charge an attempt to assassinate the presidential candidate for a major political party. that carries a potential sentence of life in prison. but, tom is right to point out here that the timing is still a little bit questionable. this letter, the failed

attempt -- assassination attempt that the defendant refers to, that's helpful for prosecutors in seeking his detention and proving he's a danger to the community. but prosecutors if they want to bring additional attempted assassination charges will have to show that that was what the defendant intended when he was on trump's golf course the day he was arrested. and although that seems likely, and that seems to be a strong conclusion that can be drawn from the evidence, there will have to be an exploration of what this prior failed assassination attempt refers to, and what that means. >> tom winter, joyce vance, thanks to both of you. donald trump has two events in the all important battleground of pennsylvania today. it is a must win for both campaigns. kamala harris is going to be in pennsylvania tomorrow for that big economic speech with people crying for more details. she said she's going to give them. a lot of people argue she already has. joining us now, nbc news

correspondent vaughn hillyard, usa today's washington bureau chief susan page and "new york times" chief us who correspondent peter baker. so, vaughn, first to you, "the new york times," sienna college poll out today with a poll of sun belt battlegrounds and it shows trump in pennsylvania today, georgia tomorrow, vance in north carolina today. it doesn't take a genius to figure up what they're up to. >> you were talking with mark and steve about this earlier, all the polls are within the margin of error. if you look at arizona, for example, there is an eight-point swing in the last month. let's be very clear. it is unlikely, no good number of arizona voters don't think there is an eight-point swing, but this is close across a number of battleground states. when you're looking in this homestretch here, early ballots start to go out, can tell a lot where the campaigns are priority

priorityizing their folk out. if you look on wednesday, trump has a stop in north carolina, on a plane tonight to go to georgeia, a rally tomorrow. tonight, in pennsylvania. it is those three states, if donald trump is able to secure those three states, he hits his 270 mark. let's say the democrats win, kamala harris wins nevada, michigan, wisconsin, as long as donald trump wins arizona, georgia, north carolina, and then pennsylvania, pennsylvania is that ultimate state, that let's say it plays out that way, if kamala harris wins pennsylvania, the presidency is hers. if donald trump wins pennsylvania, it is his. and that is why you see him there tonight, you see her going there on wednesday, it is going to be pennsylvania, pennsylvania, pennsylvania. >> which is great for me, that's where i started, that's where i spent years covering politics. susan page, this tight race makes another debate all the more important.

kamala harris challenging donald trump to debate again on october 23rd. let's watch what they both had to say. >> join me on the debate stage. let's have another debate. there is more to talk about and the voters of america deserve to hear the conversations that i think we should be having on substance, on issues, on policies, what is your plan, what's my plan? >> the problem with another debate is that it is just too late. she's done one debate, i've done two. it is too late to do another. i'd love to in many ways, but it is too late. the voting is cast. the voters are out there. >> susan, it is worthwhile to point out he has twice done debates later in october than october 23rd. but can he resist the lure of potentially 70 million people watching? that's how many watched the first debate. >> that's what the kamala harris campaign is banking on. that even though he says now he won't do the debate on october 23rd, maybe he'll change his mind.

and, you know, you look at the next six weeks, six weeks in this election, it is really another debate that would have the best possibility of shaking things up in a race that is just too close to call now. we just never have seen a campaign with an election this close in virtually all the swing states this late in the day. so a debate could make a big difference. that's why harris wants one. and that's why it might be an enticement for donald trump that he couldn't avoid taking. >> peter, your colleagues are writing that even by donald trump's standards, the last two weeks have been tumultuous from pet eating to laura loomer on the plane and the trump-backed republican candidate mark robinson facing explosive allegations he made racist and lewd comments on a porn site, which he denies, but there is no indication that that denial holds up. jd vance was asked about that by our philadelphia affiliate. >> do you believe him, that

those were not his posts? >> i don't not believe him, i don't believe him, i just think you have to let these things sometimes play out in the court of public opinion. it is mark robinson and the people of north carolina get to decide. >> north carolina could be all important especially, you know, in -- depending what happens for kamala harris if she loses one of the big blue wall states. what about north carolina? >> yeah. no question that could have an impact. there are plenty of nikki haley republicans, not super happy with trump, and who would turn out if they felt they had an important state race to turn out for. governor's race, senate race, congressman's race, that kind of thing. if in north carolina, republicans who aren't strongly for trump feels there is no reason to turn out for the governor's race, they might not want to vote for mark robinson who calls himself a black nazi and so forth, they may stay home. and that's obviously the worry of the trump campaign at this

point. you saw trump go to north carolina, without including mark robinson at his event without mentioning him. i think he's now radioactive from the trump campaign's point of view. on the other side, the democrats are more than happy to point out the links between mark robinson and donald trump in order to suppress that republican vote. so it is a big, big moment. it is not just about a governor's race in one state, it is about the presidential race. >> and we should point out that not only does he back mark robinson, but he was called martin luther king jr. on steroids, a full embrace. remains to be seen whether it has an impact. vaughn hillyard, susan page, peter baker, thanks. new numbers out today show an overall crime rate is down across the country, despite what donald trump is saying on the campaign trail. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports." this is msnbc. you're watching "l reports. this is msnbc. powerful cold and flu relief with a dreamy honey taste nyquil honey,

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donald trump is repeatedly accusing the biden/harris administration of letting crime run rampant, especially crime from undocumented immigrants. despite all indications to the contrary. today, the fbi released statistics showing a 3% decline in violent crime in 2023, suggesting a steady decline since the uptick that did occur during the pandemic. those numbers for the fbi's annual report were compiled from law enforcement agencies across the country, using data covering

94% of the population. separately the fbi has repeatedly reported that crime from immigrant groups is actually lower than the national average. joining us now, nbc news justice and intelligence correspondent ken dilanian and "new york times" national reporter jeremy peters. welcome to both of you. what do the numbers really mean? what are you seeing in the numbers in. >> they say murder declined 11.6% last year, that's the largest single year decline on record. it is happening after murder had the largest spike on record in 2020 during the pandemic. what we're seeing big picture, there was a huge spike in violent crime during the pandemic. it has been gradually going down and it is pretty much back down to prepandemic levels. the republicans and others are pushing the narrative that this data is wrong, that crime is somehow up when it is down, and there was a year, 2021, when some of this fbi data was missing several big cities.

that is no longer true. as you said, it covers 94% of the population, every city over 1 million and it shows violent crime was down last year and other data showing that is continuing in the first half of 2024 with violent crime and murder. it is a good news story. too bad not everybody is prepared to accept it. >> and, jeremy, another indication of that is the false reporting by donald trump amplified by others, the conspiracy theories about immigrants in springfield, ohio, eating pets, which is just not true. the governor said so. he wrote an op-ed in "the new york times." the mayor said so. but the fact is that these conspiracy theories proliferate. we have seen this in previous election cycles. >> this goes back to at least 1992, when pat buchanan was running against george h.w. bush. >> now you have especially media that magnifies it. >> completely, right? this idea that immigrants, ones

that are here illegally, commit crime, has always been a part of the republican message. donald trump has taken it and put it on steroids and because he has, you know, the -- a bigger megaphone than any presidential candidate in history, we have seen with social media and other exposure to media, you're right, it gets amplified beyond. >> and, ken, donald trump is claiming the fbi is defrauding statements on checked on that c. after two attempts on his life, there is a feeling among his allies on the right that federal law enforcement cannot be trusted. and that's causing a lot of distress within the fbi, the doj, cincinnati, there was someone, you know, taking a shot at the fbi operation there, number of years ago in the midterms. there is a growing narrative that is really scary. >> yes, and it is deeply unfortunate and misplaced in this case because this data comes from cities.

it goes up the chain from cities to states to the fbi. and even when the cities were omitted in 2021, you could go on their own websites and look at the crime data and see it is declining. there is a survey by the justice department of crime victims. which tries to measure both unreported and reported crime. and that is slightly different, it shows different numbers than the fbi numbers. it tells the same story, which is that violent crime has settled back down to 2019 levels, unfortunately, people are cherry picking from that victim survey. which had a couple of years during covid that seemed to be off. the bottom line is that the fbi, the state government, city government, they're all telling the same story, violent crime declined significantly over the last few years and appears to be continuing to decline. >> jeremy, is there a way, with 43 days left, to try to counteract the false reports? >> well, i think what kamala harris has smartly done is she's not dismissed people's fears

about crime. regardless of what the statistics on murder say, there are crimes that are up. retail theft, for example, is way up. that's a kind of quality of life crime that people can see every day when you have items at cvs locked down and you can't get to them, right? what kamala harris has done that other democrats have been not so great at is she's not saying that they're crazy. she's not saying they're overreacting. and she has done that in a number of ways i think in really trying to appeal more to the centrist on the fence voters that biden picked up in 2020 and won the presidency with. >> appealing to people where they live. >> exactly. >> jeremy, that's great. and ken dilanian, your fact checking is the best. we appreciate it. and next, as ukraine's president zelenskyy is here in the u.s., what is his secret victory plan against russia? that's next. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports" on msnbc. next. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports" on msnbc. citi's industry leading global payments solutions help their clients move money

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ukraine's president zelenskyy is here in the u.s. this week, he'll meet with president biden and vice president harris in washington on thursday, he speaks to the united nations general assembly wednesday. he says he'll present a plan for victory against russia, yesterday zelenskyy visited an ammunition factory in scranton, pennsylvania, to thank workers who are producing critical ammunition for his country. joining me is richard haas,

richard, this is his victory plan, what's the victory plan beyond wanting approval from the u.s., from joe biden, to fire long-range weapons, long-range missiles into russia and the u.s. stands alone in this because the europeans want to give that approval even if it's on the british weapons. >> two separate issues here, one, the arms we provide under what constraints. he's wanted more powerful weapons with further constraints. that's a means. the much bigger question surrounding this zelenskyy visit is what the end, the definition of victory, if there's a plan for victory, how do you define it, it's ukraine gaining all of its territory back, if that's the definition of victory it's not going to be achieved any time soon to say the least. the most interesting question, the one that's being discussed

privately, what it's the realistic definition of victory in the way of territorial division, nato guarantees, so forth, that's the real conversation. >> part of the backdrop that donald trump would not say in the debate he wants ukraine to win the war and that he's said such favorable things for russia. donald trump victory means pressure on zelenskyy to make concessions to vladimir putin. >> quite possibly, the question is whether there's pressure on putin, what would a trump plan look like, what's trump's plan for victory? the real question for the west is to come together on how do you blend the desirable with the doable, what's the realistic

plan for ukraine diplomatically, it will come center stage, 2025 is going to be the year of diplomacy between russia and ukraine. >> at a meeting just now with the head of the uae, president biden made it clear they were discussing a plan to end the war in the middle east. what iranian president said to us today he keeps hearing there will be a cease-fire deal in a week and then another week and then it never happens, he of course blames israel for expanding its demand without mentioning the hamas leader in the tunnels who's also raising objections. >> each side have their own agenda, getting a cease-fire is not at the top of it. the most realistic reality going forward is that gaza continues perhaps at a lower level, i think the immediate concern is more preventing serious

escalation between israel and hezbollah, behind it all how do you manage the relationship, we have to go to the source, it's -- >> lindsey graham said that on meet the press. >> at what point does israeli and american tolerance runs out. in the middle east right now, you can't talk about ending the war, there are multiple fault lines, gaza, the north lebanon, the west bank as well as the houthis. it's an earthquake zone with multiple fault lines. >> lot of americans in both parties who are stunned and franklied a mierg of israel's use of cell phones, pagers as explosives. are they taking on more than

they can chew? >> almost coming to our previous conversation, what's your definition of success? eliminate hezbollah? probably not. is your goal to get those 60,000 israelis who evacuated their homes in the north of israel back home? if that's the goal, does this advance that goal. one can acknowledge, admire, whatever word you want to use, take a step back and again what are we trying to accomplish there. >> that's why we love you, thank you so much, richard. that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." so much so quick. lot more tomorrow. follow on social media at mitchell reports. chris jansing reports starts after a short break. rts starts after a short break.

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good day. i'm chris jansing. sun belt squeeze, new numbers in arizona and north carolina show kamala harris losing ground even as our nbc poll has her popularity surging, unlike anything we've seen in 20 years, how the experts reconcile that and what else a deep dive into the numbers reveal about this political standoff of a race. plus, israel's deadliest attacks in lebanon, just as world leaders gather at the u.n. this week. with the strategic shift that left 274 people dead today alone, can diplomacy diffuse the situation? new details that the suspected gunman in the apparent plot to assassinate donald trump may have been scoping out that florida golf course for nearl