good day. i'm chris jansing. sun belt squeeze, new numbers in arizona and north carolina show kamala harris losing ground even as our nbc poll has her popularity surging, unlike anything we've seen in 20 years, how the experts reconcile that and what else a deep dive into the numbers reveal about this political standoff of a race. plus, israel's deadliest attacks in lebanon, just as world leaders gather at the u.n. this week. with the strategic shift that left 274 people dead today alone, can diplomacy diffuse the situation? new details that the suspected gunman in the apparent plot to assassinate donald trump may have been scoping out that florida golf course for nearly a

month. what the feds are now revealing about ryan routh, his weapon and his getaway car, and the letter he left behind in case he failed. that fast moving presidential campaign, 43 days out from the election it found two seemingly contradictory facts are both true, donald trump continues to be battered by challenging headlines and yet his race against kamala harris is still shaping up one of the tightest in history, new sun belt polling from "the new york times" today trump has gained a lead in arizona and remains ahead in georgia, two states that he lost in 2020. but in north carolina, which has not voted for a democrat since 2008, miss harris trails donald trump by a narrow margin. our weekend poll shows harris up nationally by five. but more dramatically her favorable score is up 16 points since july, now surpassing

trump. it comes as trump heads to pennsylvania later today amid ground game concerns, the associated press reports that dozens of republican officials, activists and operatives in michigan, north carolina and other battleground states say they have rarely or never witnessed the group's canvassers. despite the fact that harris has agreed to a second debate the former president now says it's too late even though there were debates in october in 2016 and 2020. democrats posting billboard calling him a chicken near his stop in pennsylvania today. while democrats are feeling good about their messaging and momentum, none of those developments have produced anything approaching a seismic shift in the race that harris' team has said from the start will be heart-stopping close. steve kornacki.

steward stephens. author of it was all a lie, a book about republican party you should donald trump. steve, we know nationally that kamala harris is leading, at least within the margin of error, but dig into the details of this poll, because that's where it gets interesting and the undercards. >> chris, a couple interesting things here that goes into this advantage for harris, number one, the gender gap, a massive gender gap, here you see among men donald trump leading 52-40, 12-point lead for trump. among women, look at the margin harris is racking up, 58 to 37. 21. a gender gap of 33 points. again, that's like ten points higher than we saw in the 2020 and 2016 elections with both

featured historically massive gender gaps. >> steve, can i stop you here, when you have that big of a gap don't women generally vote in larger numbers in presidential elections than men do, that would indicate to me almost a runaway race is not what we're seeing. >> higher, we're talking very close to 50% on both, so not, you know, it's not like ten points out of whack one to another. you're seeing a five-point, you can see it, you know, trying to go back to this first screen, go back to it. five-point lead for harris. you do find a bigger margin for harris for women than trump has

among men. a step further here, other groups here, among white voters, nine-point. black voters, 85-7 for kamala harris. that's standard historically speaking among black voters. but a big change from where this race was when biden was the candidate. his support for black voters was falling somewhere in the 60s, well short of what democrats get. trump among black voters had been and other polls do show this in the mid-teens, for a republican would be a historically pretty high share of the black votes. what democrats are seeing in this poll for harris, among core kons tunesies group, much more in line of what they've depended on in the past and worried about

when joe biden was the candidate. is there any positive news from a trump standpoint? democrats love where the race is going in the national race, if you're a trump partisan you might look at this, these two issues, border and immigration, and then economy and inflation, more than four in ten voters say economy and inflation are their top concern, trump with a nine-point advantage over harris on who would do better on that. border and immigration, 28-point for trump. trump with advantage on both of those. that keeps him in the game. >> steve, always great to see you at the big board. thank you so much. adam, these new battleground polls from siena/"the new york times" is where this race will be decided. three of the key battleground.

harris had a five-point lead before the debate now she's behind by five in arizona. now, again, these were allen with the margin of error, if you're working on the harris campaign, any warning in here for you? >> i don't think so, i mean, i think that the harris campaign is paying incredibly close attention to the data, they're looking at these polls, own polls they're looking at and with all due to respect to the "the new york times," they're transparent about their process, when you see big swings going plus five for harris to negative five for harris, toss in the averages and see how the averages come in.

i think the big picture here is this an extremely close race, harris is in a much stronger position than democrats were over the summer, and, you know, it's going come down to these states, she tends to be performing better in pennsylvania, wisconsin and michigan, the so-called blue wall states of midwest than president biden was you and a poll today showing her up six points in wisconsin. but the point is, if you're on the campaign you have your nose to the grindstone, you're doing everything you can to inform voters about her positions. voters want to find out more about kamala harris and they find out more they shift in a positive direction. polls go up and polls go down, she's clearly in a very strong position to win. >> yes, steward, anyone in the campaign will tell you we believe this race is incredibly

tight. having said that, i think to adam's point, according to the times poll, 15% of the electorate in arizona and georgia and north carolina have been undecided. do you buy that number first of all, this group of voters have leaned in miss harris and now lean slightly more to trump. >> yeah, look, i have a contrary view on this, i think there's a distinct trend here when you put this all together, since the convention and debate harris has been going up and trump has been static or going down, that's a pretty obvious trend, i think this poll, does anybody think that harris has dropped ten points in arizona? what evidence do you have to back that up?

arizona and pennsylvania were pretty much the same in '20. i think this is very odd numbers. so, harris' favorables are going up. trump is stagnant or going down. with these undecided voters, to a degree they vote they're going to break based on fave/unfave. so, it's the job -- >> for you is that favorability number the most important potentially in that poll? in our nbc poll, that is. >> yeah, i think, favorability captures the race -- how are you feeling about these candidates. we've been saying in '22, going to be decided by economy, what's

extraordinary here, harris is beating trump on commander in chief. i mean, i can promise you if woke up anybody in the trump campaign two months ago that was going to happen they would have said that's insane. she's developing these trust areas that are very important. and republicans traditionally lean toward that stronger candidate. so, for decades now, republicans have had an issue advantage and image advantage on strength, on foreign policy particularly that's now eroding and becoming a democratic advantage. which we haven't seen since back in the kennedy days. so, this is a huge thing that's happening out there if it continues and that will elect harris and it's going to affect our politics for a long time if it continues. >> i want to bring in dasha burns in indiana, pennsylvania,

where donald trump will hold a rally tonight after saying no more debates. i want to ask you about that, dasha, is the sense inside the campaign he doesn't need it, he doesn't want to risk it, what do we know about this? >> reporter: well, look, chris, you'll remember basically immediately after that first debate between trump and harris he went into the spin room which surprised everybody, he said then that i don't think we need another debate, right, and now he's saying that again, he's saying it's simply too late that date of october 23rd. what he said most recently to fox news. >> well, i've already done two debates and we're good. but to do a third one everybody's voting now and it's very late to be doing a third debate, but once the election starts and it started it's a very bad thing to be doing a debate in the middle of the vote-counting, late into the election, so, i think it would be a very bad thing, i think it

would be a bad thing for the country. >> so some important context here, chris, he did participate in an october debate in both 2016 and 2020, in 2016 the last presidential debate was october 19th and in 2020 it was october 22nd and there have been october debates in every presidential election going back to 1960, so this is nothing new, having a final debate even when early voting has started is not new. here's what surprised me over the weekend, i was talking to voters at the trump rally in north carolina and i asked them if they wanted to see a second debate, some said some trump rally-goers it would be good for the country and the voters to see trump and harris face off one more time a little bit closer to the election, chris. >> dasha burns, thank you for that. adam, i mentioned the ap report in some places like michigan

questions being raised about the strength of trump's ground game, is that part of the money-raising disparity in august, that harris outraised him four-times, is it about they believe they don't need the kind of turnout operation that she does because he's a known quantity, what do you see going on there and how much of a difference could a turnout operation make. >> turnout operations are very important when it comes to close races and this is going to be a close race, no good reason for trump to have a strong turnout operation, definitely a sign of weakness within his campaign, he raised a lot of money in a short period of time after he was convicted which goes to say what kind of things raise money on his side. his voters petered out. and then harris' surged dramatically, they're able to

transfer money to other races. she's in a very strong position money-wise. not having a ground game for trump is a sign of weakness, he can't afford it or the campaign isn't being run well and deploying people on the ground. one thing he said in that clip you just played, people are already voting, people are voting by early voting. getting them their mail ballots, then you're behind. simply you don't want to have as a campaign. not having a ground game. >> we should also note that most of the north carolina poll that we mentioned for the times was done before the latest developments surrounding the republican governor candidate mark robinson, we got four senior staff members quit.

do you see a situation where him staying in the race does have an impact on donald trump or maybe something else that's going on in north carolina particularly with republican voters? >> yeah, it's going to have a big impact on the race. republican parties embrace of robinson is -- his own staff is resigning. this is not a good thing. strong gubernatorial candidates can have positive impact in races. they're the ones who have the best organizations, the ones who know the most people, people in the state are vested in voting for the governor. it's a much more strong connection than any presidential race. so, you know, they tried this in

pennsylvania when they did this guy -- he was a disaster in 2022, this is just a replay. look, i think harris is going to win north carolina. you saw these polls, she's getting 85% of the african american vote, that ain't going to happen, she's going to get north of 90%. so, yeah, it's a mess and it's just sort of reflective of this larger problem that republicans decided that character doesn't count. after all these decades where they said character is king. what happens when character doesn't happen you end up with mark robinson and donald trump. >> thank you both. much appreciated. coming up in 90 seconds, diplomats are gathering here in new york for the u.n. general

assembly, but the focus of their conversations is more than 5,000 miles away on the border between israel and lebanon, new explosions there have killed hundreds, can world leaders do anything about it? a retired four-star general and former deputy security adviser will join us after a quick break. us after a quick break. tter. especially when they're eggland's best. taste so fresh and amazing. ( ♪♪ ) deliciously superior nutrition, too. for us, it's eggs any style. as long as they're the best. eggland's best. ( ♪♪ ) new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job on indeed, it's easier for talented candidates to find it. which makes it easier for you to hire them. visit indeed.com/hire

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world leaders gather in new york for the united nations general assembly. idf and hezbollah are exchanging heavy fire. lebanon's health ministry said today's strikes killed 274 people and injured more than a 1,000. the israeli government is sending lebanese residents evacuation warnings directly to their phones. hala gorani is reporting and ben rhodes. hala prime minister netanyahu said he promised to change the security balance in north, what's happening, what's the latest? >> reporter: well, the lebanese people, chris, are very resilient, they've weathered many crises, many wars, but i've spoken to some of my sources and indeed friends in that country and they're very, very nervous.

the israeli prime minister has issued a message directly to civilians telling them to evacuate. to not remain in areas where the israeli military believes hezbollah might have hid in weaponry, but israeli -- i'm sorry lebanese civilians are saying we don't know where some of these secret weapons are stored, they're secret that's the whole point. you mentioned over 270 killed, that's a very high death toll, perhaps the highest daily death toll since the lebanese civil war, there are people who are picking up their kids from school, there are traffic jams in the south of lebanon where some of these bombardments are taking place and hezbollah is responding with rockets and projectiles of its own. fired by hezbollah into the northern parts of israel.

we spoke to a man who is picking his child from school, saying he's not taking any chances with fears that this might really escalate into an all-out conflict between the two sides. listen. >> translator: we're here because of the phone calls. they're calling everyone and threatening everyone by phone. the situation is not reassuring. >> reporter: so, the question is going to be, how will hezbollah respond eventually -- they have a much more powerful arsenal of weapons, with missiles that could go much deeper into israel they haven't used so far, if that happens, and that would really depend on whether iran, the group's patron, then we could start seeing a much deadlier conflict, chris. >> hala, thank you for that. general, we've heard israel's strategy described as escalating

to de-escalate, how do you see it? >> military powers are very uncertain tool to communicate political objectives, it seems to me what's happening is the israelis have decided politically and from a military point of view they're going to get their people, 70,000 refugees back into the border, the current situation is it's not going to happen until there's a truce in gaza, which is not going to happen, and therefore we're in the opening stages of a very bitter war. it won't occur until the idf calls up a quarter of a million more troops, they'd have to go in on the ground, actually hezbollah back from the frontier and eliminate the rocket threat, this is a very complex and dangerous situation. the israelis just conducted a devastating, tactical strike on hezbollah, eliminating

potentially 3,000 of their rank and file leaders, the exploding pagers and walkie-talkie. this war will be devastating for israel also. they didn't do well in 2006. this is going to be multiple orders of magnitude, worse if they go to all-out conflict. >> terrible as what they're seeing today, it's not in an vacuum, israel has shown more military might as of late. all of it sending a very powerful psychological message to israel's enemies, but do you think it has an impact on hezbollah and iran's calculations going forward? >> well, it may well have an impact on iran, iran has enormous amount to lose, remember this is all backed up

by 40,000-some-odd u.s. forces with more on the way, this is principally air and navy power, we won't be involved, the u.s., in a ground war in the middle east. hezbollah hasn't been in any way deterred, they're in a state of confusion right now and panic after the israeli tactical devastating strike on them, but nothing strategically got changed by israel's assassination of the hamas operatives in tehran, in the most insulting, provocative way, the subsequent killings of people in downtown beirut, so israel's pushing this toward war, they're capable of winning against hezbollah, make no doubt about it, but this would be a

war involving tens of thousands of casualties among the civilian population in israel and the idf. war is to be avoided if you're thinking about things strategically in israel. >> no doubt that's exactly been what president biden and many of his allies involved in talks to try to de-escalate this situation in the middle east are going to be having conversations about in the coming hours and days at the u.n. general assembly. take us inside those conversations. >> i mean, they're kind of challenging, chris, the reality is the biden administration for weeks really since the beginning of the conflict after october 7th has been trying to avoid this escalation in israel. and you know, think rightly their assessment the only way to de-escalate things across the

region is through a cease-fire in gaza, that appears to have unravelled. . challenge for the administration, israel's the prime actor, netanyahu doesn't appear to be listening to president biden, you can talk to the countries in the regions, europeans will be concerned about this, huge ramifications for the u.s., if there's an escalation region wide. there's energy prices if iran gets into this. europeans worry about refugee flows. the decisionmakers, bibi netanyahu doesn't appear to be listening to president biden. >> he hasn't been from the very beginning of all of this. we've got a minute left, there's an opportunity for president biden to speak to americans and to the world tomorrow, which

this might be his final major speech on the world stage at the u.n. general assembly, what do you expect we'll hear? >> normally, he'll probably wanting to lift up his legacy and and he'll have to address the conflict in the middle east. it's so day by day, there's not a sense of how could we get out of this and the cease-fire and to get saudi arabia to normalize with israel. hezbollah weathered the war in 2006. this is not an easy target. you can knock them back tactically, if israel is determine to go ahead with war in -- so, president biden can

lay out a vision for diplomacy in the region but unless he can get the israeli government to sign on to aspects of that vision we'll continue to be in this precarious state of escalation. >> thank you both. still to come, what we just learned about a handwritten note authorities say was left by the suspect in the apparent assassination attempt on donald trump. n attempt on donald trump. it's started. it's... the side hug. tween milestones like this may start at age 9. hpv vaccination—a type of cancer prevention against certain hpv-related cancers, can start then too. for most, hpv clears on its own.

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any moment now we expect to hear whether the suspect in the apparent second assassination attempt of former president trump in florida will remain behind bars through his trial. prosecutors are asking a judge to deny bail to the 58-year-old suspect. ryan wesley routh, arguing he poses a danger to public safety. court filings said he staked out the grounds of the golf course in west palm beach for a month. he left a note, writing, this was an assassination attempt on donald trump but i failed you. tom winter's following this for us. and also with us, paul butler. tom, what more can you tell us about those two big ones? >> reporter: chris, new revelations and we're learning it from paper filings made this

morning prior to this hearing, our own yes, sir se kirsch is in that inside of that hearing, because the rules the judge set up for the proceedings he's not allowed and any other reporters allowed to leave until it's over. we're a little bit in the dark here. i've seen some of these hearings go half an hour and some have gone the an entire day. it's clear that prosecutors and federal investigators have made some headway, when someone contacted a box of documents that routh left behind, in the box of documents that were left behind a month before this alleged incident included a letter that he wasn't able to complete an assassination attempt against donald trump, so the timing's a little odd, why

write a letter you weren't able to go through an assassination attempt prior to you to the best of our knowledge prior to attempting it. here, as far as the things found in the car, the cell phones found in the suspect's car, the fbi were able to trace where they had been from the service provider, they were near mar-a-lago and trump's golf course on several occasions over the past the month-plus, he was in the area multiple times according to documents and then also that he had some locations where the former president was or going to be, clearly he had put in some effort at least according to federal prosecutors and their filings and what the fbi has found. that's what we know about this case. given the length of this detention hearing who knows,

chris. >> that's my question for you, paul, 2.5 hours seems like a long time, what i've been hearing is what tom just said, it's a pretty open and close case. this is all about the bond hearing or could they have gone into other areas? >> the purpose of today's hearing for the judge to decide whether mr. routh will remain behind bars prior to his trial, not about his guilt but about whether he'd show up for court. chris, prosecutors should easily be able to make the case that he's a flight risk, he tried to escape the secret service agent who discovered him at trump's golf course, and the evidence said he's a danger to the community includes the firearm with his fingerprints and the bag containing the ceramic

place. this is a big high-profile case, i think all sides are being extra careful. i don't think there's any doubt that mr. routh is going to be locked up until this trial. >> the new information we learned this morning that is suspect had staked out the golf course for months, he was there for 12 hours the day of the incident, he had been scoping the place out for a month, he has not been federally charged with attempted assassination but does the fact that it appears from these court papers he did some extensive planning, mean they could add that or any other charge? >> great question, chris. he's only charged with gun crimes. even more serious crimes could be forthcoming, attempted assassination of a former president, attempted assassination of a major party candidate for president, federal crimes that carry longer

sentences than the gun charges that he now faces. mr. routh didn't fire any shots at the golf course, to charge attempted assassination profession kurts would have to prove that routh intended to kill the former president and he took steps toward achieving that goal. chris, prosecutors will have to think about context, the letter sounds like a confession but it was apparently written months before the mar-a-lago incident. so prosecutors will have to think about whether that letter refers to a previous attempt on mr. trump's life and that's what he meant when he wrote, this was a failed assassination attempt. paul butler, thank you. coming up, speaker johnson striking a deal with his political rivals to avert a government shutdown next week, there's one big issue that could still upend it, we're on capitol hill after this.

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speaker mike johnson is defying donald trump by striking a deal with white house and top democrats to avert a shutdown and keep the government running through just before christmas, the proposed deal doesn't include the item trump wants most, the controversial plan known as the save act. he'll attempt to get the deal

passed without it later this week, will trump intervene? jack sherman, go-to for all things on the hill. what's the latest? >> i don't think the government is going to shut down, chris, i don't think that's likely at all. here's what's going to happen, this bill will come to the floor at some point a three-month stopgap funding bill which keeps the government open until december 20th, setting up a huge end of the year legislative rush, government shutdown threat. this bill is going to pass with a lot of democrats, possibly every single democrat and probably roughly half or so of house republicans, so this is, again, going to be an example of keeping the government open with the help of an overwhelming number of democrats, now i would not be surprised to see donald trump say something this week, although mike johnson has spent

a lot of time working him over, trying to get him comfortable with this funding plan, but listen, trump called for something he didn't get it and mike johnson couldn't get it across the finish line thanks to several house republicans who voted against that save act that provision that would have people prove their citizenship before voting. >> correct me if i'm wrong, there used to be a price to pay in congress for not getting the job done, these constant stopgap measures, to remind people last year when we were in the exact same place, they didn't actually get that settled until this march. the same stuff they were fighting over this time last year did not get settled until this march, is that potentially

what we're looking at again? >> that's our country. you should be proud of it, right, congress has fallen down on the job time and time again, year after year, mike johnson has said he doesn't want and he said, i will not do any more of these short-term funding bills, our nation is funded with three-month increments -- >> that's insane. that's insane. >> corporations, large and small, i run a company, we have 35 employees, we don't budget on a three-month basis, it would be silly to do that. we're going to be in this position in december, in february or march, or they could knock the whole year in december, i don't think that will happen. it's not good for any short-term

or long-term planning. >> let's talk again, shall we, and see how things are going in the next several days and weeks. coming up next the political divide over crime in america, what's the reality, we got facts, new data from the fbi. di . get fast, all-day relief of your worst allergy symptoms like nasal congestion. (♪♪) live claritin clear. t-mobile's 5g network connects a hundred thousand delta employees so they can make every customer feel like they've arrived before they've left the ground. this is how business goes further with t-mobile for business.

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starting at the end of this month, every american household can get up to four free rapid tests through the federal government. they haven't exactly announced when they will start taking orders but they will do a publicity push as they always do. it comes as experts warn a new variant has been rapidly spreading through europe and has reached the u.s. a new issue that has been central to donald trump's campaign against kamala harris, crime. the fbi releasing a sweeping new report this morning on crime rates in major u.s. cities. nbc's ken dilanian is reporting from d.c., so democrats and republicans have long been pushing completely different narratives about crime trends, so what does the data actually show us? >> the fbi shows violent crime decrease bid 3% but murder came down 12%, the largest single year decline in recorded history

on murder. the big picture is that what this shows is violent crime spiked during the pandemic. murder dramatically increased in 2020. it's settling down to prepandemic levels across the board. you'll hear donald trump and others say, well, big cities are left off this fbi data. that's not true. it was true in 2021 when they changed the way they collected the data. this data set covers 94% of the u.s. population. there are different ways of measuring crime. there's a justice department victims survey to capture crime that wasn't reported to police. that shows different numbers. overall it agrees that violent crime is about the same level it was in 2019 before the pandemic, and that survey doesn't measure murder. murder, the drop is remarkable, and every murder is counted in the united states. there are no hidden murders. it's really remarkable good news and it's distressing that people

don't agree on the facts because the facts are right in front of us, chris. >> the important number you said, ken, this isn't just some snapshot here and there, it covers 94% of the u.s. population. so this isn't something that they can say has been cherry picked? >> no, that's 100% true. every big city in the united states, every city of over a million people, and you know, look, crime data is complex. but murder really isn't. every murder is counted. you can say some crimes aren't reported to police, every dead body is accounted for and murder has dropped dramatically, the largest single year decline in american history, chris. >> ken dilanian, thank you. still ahead, a man hunt now underway for multiple shooters after four people were killed and 17 injured in alabama. what authorities now know about a potential motive after the break. but first, you can watch the best parts of our show anytime on you tube. just go to msnbc.com/jansing.

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you can get lumineux toothpaste it is good to be back with you on this second hour of "chris jansing reports." at this hour, get out now. the urgent warning for civilians if lebanon as israel launches a new round of strikes on hezbollah, killing more than 270 and injuring more than a thousand. we are live in tel aviv. a game of chicken. dems launch a pressure campaign to get donald trump to debate kamala harris again as the former president makes a surprising admission about his future political plans. plus, new fallout for mark robinson, the embattled candidate for governor in north carolina, the shakeup if his campaign after he denied making salacious and incendiary posts on a porn web site. and on the hunt for