good to be with you. i'm katy tur. we have interesting and contradicting polls from nbc news, and it sells us a lot. the numbers are great for harris

and great for donald trump. how can that be? we'll help you make sense of the moment and where the race is headed 43 days from election day. when we do finally get there from election day to that night, a lot of attention will be on the exit polls of north carolina. the purple state is a squeaker right now. is it going to stay that way? there's new and not so flattering news for voters. you may call the allegations reprehensible, and you also might not be so surprised, since they surround the gop's candidate for governor, mark robinson. we have mentioned him before with his many sexist and racist statements. reports that he called himself a black nazi on porn sites, he's denying it. the explosive cnn report came out on thursday. now his campaign staff is walking out on him, leaving the candidate and potentially the party at sea in the crucial

battleground state. let's get into it. joining us now, nbc news correspondent covering the trump/vance campaign, vaughn hillyard. nbc news white house correspondent covering the harris/walz, aaron gilchrist, and senior writer at "the dispatch," david drucker. it's weird to deliver news when someone calls themselves a black nazi and to have to do it in the style we do every day, as if it's a normal turn of events for this country and this ever increasingly weird moment we're living in. what's the deal with the staffers walking out, and i guess why did it take them so long? >> i think the fact that it's unsurprising that these candidates exist, and have such a platform, and are elevated to getting the endorsement of a former president of the united states, when we knew he had made wildly racist statements in the past, erratic, that he was somebody who, i think anybody on their face would question whether you should be running for governor of a state. for mark robinson, his deputy

campaign manager, finance director, general consultant. he was not at the campaign rally with donald trump on saturday. at the same time, donald trump has not unendorsed him. when you look historically, donald trump didn't leave the side of herschel walker. he didn't leave the side of roy moore, of charles herbster, who folks may recall was running in nebraska. there was allegations from seven different women that they had been sexually harassed and groped. his quote at the time, this was in 2022, from donald trump, was quote, i have to defend my friends. i have to defend people that are good. he was with us from the beginning. while he was not at campaign rally with mark robinson on saturday at the same time, he has not unendorsed the man who was running for governor? >> david, this was the big talk at an event i was at over the weekend. the question is will mark robinson drop out? does he have to drop out?

i reminded him roy moore didn't drop out, accused of sexual assault. >> and almost became senator. >> lost to doug jones. say he stays in the race. this is a guy, i mean, all of this information was out there. it's easy to uncover. you do a background check on a candidate to see if you want them to run for office. what's the deal with the staffers deciding to walk out now? do you have any idea? >> i don't have any idea why these revelations were any worse than previous revelations, which were pretty bad. there was an 11:59 p.m. deadline. short of death he's going to be on the ballot as the republican nominee, so there's nothing that can be done about that for the party. you know, i think the question is how does trump and his campaign decide to handle robinson who's very outspoken, and, look, when you're the gubernatorial nominee, even a nominee for senate, let alone, a

member of the house of representative, running for the house. and so, it muddles the message for trump in north carolina. but, you know, it also could work in a way in which you're going to see a lot of trump/stein voters where you may not have seen that before. there is a way in which the former president can separate himself from his friend. that's how he's referred to him. if he chooses him. i think the question is how does he choose to handle this. we have an educated guess, we don't know. >> let me play voter sound from north carolina. >> if it is true, would that -- and he stays in the race, would you vote for him? >> probably not. if he doesn't sue whoever said that about him, then to me that means he's guilty, and i'm going to not vote for him at that point? >> would you vote for josh stein or write someone in?

>> i would see what the republican party is going to do. can we swap them out, biden with harris, right? >> i don't know where the republicans come up with these candidates from because they don't make any sense. what they talk about doesn't make any sense. there's prejudice, racial, bias, it's really a shame. >> it's wild. and i've heard some people that, well, all politicians are going to have something like this, skeletons in the closet. the only thing i have to say about that is we know about this one. these are facts that have come out. so it's like, i don't know, i just can't believe it. >> yeah, it's like my mom always said, the trash always takes itself out. it's one of those scenarios. we didn't have to do anything to him. he did this to himself. >> the trash takes itself out. that's a good quote. i'm going to use that. aaron, how is the harris campaign now approaching the state of north carolina? >> well, i think democrats are looking at this growing distaste

for people like mark robinson, and trying to see if that will spread or if they can spread it to donald trump as well. we haven't heard vice president harris herself say anything about mark robinson. we did hear governor walz make mention, without using his name, make mention of him and the black nazi comment over the weekend. the harris campaign has taken the approach of looking at mark robinson as what they call a toxic extremist, and he has close ties to donald trump. they have rolled out advertising in north carolina to that effect, both from the harris campaign and from the dnc. they have put out digital ads on you tube and facebook, for example. putting up billboards across north carolina, again, trying to make sure that people are aware of how former president trump has endorsed mark robinson in the past, and hasn't unendorsed him at this point, suggesting that the ties are close, and the company you keep should be an indicator of why people in north carolina should not vote for donald trump either, instead

vote for kamala harris. the harris campaign, for its part, has been saying, it believes north carolina is somewhat in play, and in the last several days, is even more in play, they have suggested, because of the volunteer surge they have seen there, because of the female registration that they have seen there, and so they're putting a lot of energy and frankly money, going into suburban areas in particular in north carolina, trying to reach out to women voters in particular in north carolina, to run up the margins, to try to turn north carolina into a blue state for the democratic candidate for president, something that hasn't happened, we know, since 2008, and former president obama. >> there was another democratic josh that won a governor's position facing off against a problematic gop rival. that was josh shapiro in pennsylvania who ran against doug mastriano, who was considered at the time to be a terrible gop nominee. i want to play more voter sound, this is about needing to see

more from harris and trump. voters in north carolina want to see a second debate. let's listen. >> on fox, we would like to have more neutral ground, since he's done two with the others. >> absolutely. he should do another debate, but it shouldn't be on their terms anymore. they have had the first two debates on their terms. how about let's find someplace in the middle. >> i don't care either way. i thought harris was very strong in the first debate that she did with donald trump. it would be fine if they debated again. >> it's obvious why he doesn't want to do another debate because he doesn't know the issues. he'll just go back to immigration. he'll go back to saying the same thing over and over, which was the republicans' fault because they didn't back legislation that could have solved the problem. that's the pity of it all. >> we have new polling from nbc news. we'll put it up. this is a head to head national

poll, 49-44% harris is in the lead. we'll get more to it with steve kornacki. it's a post debate poll, it shows signs are good for harris. we'll get to that in a moment. is there a chance donald trump does end up debating. i heard someone over the weekend, a smart reporter, donald trump is like a bug drawn to a bug zapper. there's no way, the bug zapper being the debate and tv lights, no way donald trump will be able to avoid it. >> nobody suggested donald trump runs from a fight, whether it's good for him or not. most of the time you would be like, maybe you should keep low, and pay attention to it. donald trump is attracted to the lights and battle, even if he is guilty or not. for donald trump here, i think that this is one of those moments, i think to the extent to which he sees his back is up against the ball. will that be what compels him to

go on the debate stage. if he gets frustrated by polling numbers in north carolina, he may be able to blame mark robinson. if he sees polling numbers, he may get frustrated with kari lake. for donald trump, he's going to be in control of his own message, and he, as you're well aware through his five decades in business and decade in politics, he believes he's his best communicator. when push comes to shove, he gets 90 minutes, that could be the deciding point in october. talking to a round table out there. gentlemen, thank you very much. joining us now, former pennsylvania congressman, senior adviser are the our republican legacy, charlie dent. i want to talk about first the debates. harris has said she's accepted a cnn debate, we'd obviously love to have her at nbc news to have a debate. would it be a good idea to do a

fox news debate with brett bayer. >> he's easily goaded, she just trolls him so well, triggers him. he's not good on the issues. the only time he had a decent debate, the one against joe biden. i think she would be smart to take the debate. trump, on the other hand, would be a fool's errand to get into another arena for her, given his lack of preparedness and, you know, his inability to deal with facts and goes off on tangents, talking about people eating cats and dogs in springfield, ohio. >> my question more pointedly, would it behoove her to go to -- i know the debate is broadcast by everybody. that's why 70 million voters watch, but would it behoove her

to go to fox specifically to convince on the fence voters who don't like donald trump, and they do exist, who consider themselves republican, don't like donald trump, and want to be convinced by her, really want to be convinced by her, that she is going to be a good president or that she's going to be a safe enough bet in the face of donald trump. would a fox news venue, forum, moderator, be good for her? >> absolutely it would be good for her. because she does need to talk to independents and some republicans who want to be persuaded. why not? she'll present well. and i think bret baier will be fair. she'll be able to speak directly to the fox audience, and she doesn't have to. she just needs to pick off some. why not? >> like those two voters who were saying they didn't really like donald trump or were

implying that, and, you know, i don't agree with the way they put this, but having a debate on their terms instead of i guess they were implying harris's terms. let me ask you about mark robinson, is he going to sink donald trump's chances in pennsylvania? is he going to do what mastriano did to him in pennsylvania? >> well, look, clearly robinson does not help donald trump anywhere. the question is how much does he hurt him? donald trump has a very bad habit of endorsing some extreme radical candidates from doug mastriano to mark robinson, to herschel walker. >> roy moore. >> we've got a long list, and donald trump has associated himself with some really questionable characters over the years, probably none worse than mark robinson. i think he's doing a lot of damage to republicans in north carolina. trump is a known entity. i don't know how much damage he

can do, except if i were the democrats, i keep points out the misogynistic comments that robinson has made, and how donald trump has endorsed him. yeah, so i would tie them together, and, again, this game's won on the margins, and harris, if she can pick off a few votes here and there because of trump's foolhardy endorsement of an extreme candidate, she should go for it. i would clobber him not just in north carolina but other states. >> charlie dent, good to have you. thank you very much. i've mentioned this new nbc pollings, "new york times" polling, it's a bit contradictory, we're going to have steve kornacki explain it. we're live in a battleground county today that's picked every presidential election winner this century. what are voters saying to our reporters there? plus, americans are being told to leave lebanon as israel steps up its air assault on the

country. hundreds are already dead. what u.s. officials say they are worried about? we are back in 90 seconds.

friends, there are just over six weeks until election day. we are almost there. there's also new polling from nbc news, and it shows a tight but shifting race between donald trump and kamala harris. joining us now, nbc news national political correspondent, the man with the

numbers, steve kornacki. bring us up to speed. yeah, the bottom line here, overall, our national poll has harris 49, trump 44, and of course this is a pretty significant departure. you know, this is our irst poll, where harris has become the democratic candidate where we tested her against trump. all of the previous polling had been trump versus biden. and trump had led biden in all but one case. that was a tie. just shows you how much it's shifted just since kamala harris replaced joe biden as the democratic candidate. some things that are powering harris's current standing, number one, is a gender gap. a very big gender gap. among men in our poll, trump leads, his margin is 12 points, 52-40%. among women harris leads by 21 points. 58-37. 21-12, you're looking at a gender gap of 33 points. if that is something we actually see materialize on election day, that would be like ten points

higher than what we have in 2020, 2016, both of those were historically high gender gaps. this would be something else all together, if this is what happened, and again, especially that big margin with women that's powering harris right now. and take a look at this by race. what stands out here. you look pat black voters. now historically, this is a core democratic constituency. and you do see harris at 85%. trump at 7%. these are numbers, sort of historically, you would expect to see for a democrat versus a republican. but when joe biden had been the democratic candidate, his numbers were lagging, historically speaking among black voters. you would see them in the poll, somewhere in the 60s among black voters. trump for that matter, and there are polls that show this. trump had been running in the teens, maybe even the high teens among black voters. again, it's not a huge number, it sounds like. but that would be very very high for a republican compared to the past. the fact that in our poll, harris has, you know, sort of reestablished traditional

democratic levels with black voters, it's very significant. that's something democrats were worried about under joe biden. you see, too, harris an improvement in her image, do you have a positive or negative view of the candidate, we polled just before the race, we asked folks their opinion of her. it was 32% positive, now 48% positive. slightly above water, higher positive than negative. compare to joe biden, this is the candidate democrats had until the end of july. he's sitting under water, 41-49, pretty much in the same range where donald trump is. that's a key difference right there. and finally there's this, if you're a republican, you could take heart in this, look at these issues, asking which candidate is better when it comes to securing the border and controlling immigration. when it comes to dealing with the economy, trump by 21 points on the border and immigration, trump by 9 on the economy. in our poll we asked, you know,

what's the most important issue to you, the economy and inflation. you add them together. 40% of voters say that's their number one issue. you fold in immigration and the border a majority of voters are citing something in the area as their top issue, and trump does have right now in our poll, the issue advantage there. so certainly that keeps him in the game. >> i was looking at the gender gap you mention, 33 points, that is a striking number, as you underscored, it's higher than 2020 and 2016 if it holds. we have seen new polling out of "the new york times," it shows donald trump is doing better in battleground states, specifically in the sun belt. if there's a gender gap that remains at 33 points. how does donald trump overcome that? is that just a national thing? or if you're seeing numbers like that, does that mean harris might actually, if it remains, be doing better in some of these battleground places. make sense of the contradictions between the nbc news and "new

york times" stuff. >> a couple of ways to look at it, i'm going back in the screens to call this up. here we go, taking a look at the gender gap. the answer on the gender gap from trump's standpoint is gender gaps can work both ways. you see right now, this is netting out in harris's benefit, and her margin on the side of the gender gap where she's doing well, women, is bigger than trump's margin on the side where he's doing well, men. but if trump drives up his support with men, he could neutralize a lot of this. he could make a little in the way of head wind, there's possibilities for trump in terms of attacking the gender gap that way. you look at trump, in the "new york times" sienna polls, doing a little bit better, arizona, georgia, north carolina, you compare those to the northern tier of battleground states, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, certainly. those states tend to be whiter demographically than the states

in the sun belt. harris and our poll has made improvement among black voters. this number here, among hispanic voters, a 19 point edge for harris, that's basically where our poll had it when joe biden the democratic candidate. that was a low number for democrats. that would mark further improvement from donald trump from the strides he made in 2020, and again you look at a state like georgia, you know, population there 10% latino, you know, there's a possibility, arizona, certainly, that can help trump make strides in those states. he may not be making in some of those northern states. and another big thing, when asked about reconciling different polls, something to keep in mind in general, with any poll, between now and election day, they are going to bounce around a little bit. sometimes statistical noise, you have these poll averages, maintain these poll averages and, show you those two.

the poll averages can help you too, just put you in context, any one individual poll you'll see. >> just a difficulty in finding reliable likely voters. steve kornacki, thank you very much as always. joining us now, nbc news correspondent shaquille brewster who is in sturgeon bay, wisconsin, what is sturgeon bay telling us, shaq. >> katy, let me tell you, this first is a county that has sided with the winner of every presidential election, going back to 1996. a lot of swing voters, a lot of moderate voters, and people telling me they are trying to make the ultimate decision, and, you know, one nugget that has been reflected very clearly in my conversations here is what you heard steve describing in terms of vice president harris's rise in favorability. listen to some of those conversations? >> how has your opinion of kamala harris changed? >> mine has changed favorably because i was very negative

about it. i think she was like a nobody. i didn't know who she was and she's done a reasonably good job of marketing. >> i'm surprised at how strong she is. i honestly kind of didn't know she was there for a few years because i didn't feel like she did a whole lot. i'd much rather have her than to be frightened of having trump in the office for another four years. >> i like her positive attitude that we're going to go forward. we're not going to go backwards. >> i definitely have come to the conclusion that she's capable. i mean, and she's proved that in the debate, and she's proved that since then. >> reporter: katy, that last couple that you saw, they say they are traditionally republican voters. he said his father would be rolling over in his grave if he even knew he was considering voting for a democrat in this election, and one point that i heard from the harris campaign when they saw we were here in this county, they say since

harris moved to the top of the ticket, they have gotten 300 new volunteer signups in this county alone. while that doesn't sound like a huge number, that's about 1% of the population here. >> that's a big deal. shaquille brewster, thank you very much. and donald trump keeps saying that crime is through the roof, the country's gone to hell. we have new data from the fbi. we'll tell you what the numbers tell us about violent crime in this country. first, though, a deadly escalation in lebanon. where israel's extensive strikes have hit hundreds of hezbollah targets. what the u.s. is doing in the face of all of this. plus, congressman jim himes, ranking member of the house intelligence committee will join us to talk a lot about foreign policy coming up. don't go anywhere. with skyrizi,... ...feel significant symptom relief at 4 weeks. many people were in remission at 12 weeks, 1 year,... ...and even at 2 years. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections...

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. israeli air strikes bombarded lebanon today killing more than 356 people and wounding more than 1,200 according to lebanon's health ministry. the idf says it was striking 12 hundred terrorist targets inside the country and it told lebanese citizens to move away from positions. roads are clogged as people flea from the south to the north of the lebanon. today marks the deadliest day of conflict between the two countries since the 34-day war back in 2006. now, the state department is

warning americans to leave lebanon, quote, while commercial options are still available. joining us now from tel aviv is nbc news international correspondent hala gorani. all right. so give us the very latest there. what is it like within israel as the idf is bombarding southern lebanon. >> reporter: so in israel right now, things are calm, of course. in the north, these areas are still depopulated, the 60,000 or so israelis who have been displaced from their homes in the border area since october last year are still unable to return to their houses, but in lebanon, and i've spoken to some of our sources there, there is really a sense of great concern, that this could be the beginning of an all-out conflict because the strikes in southern lebanon and in the becca valley as well, and the number of people killed,

over 350 in a single day, that's the largest single day death toll since the civil war, some people are saying. so it's an extremely devastating day across lebanon. we've seen parents pick up their children in a panic. we've seen, as you showed there, our viewers, and some of that video, traffic jams in southern lebanon, and people trying to get out of harm's way. the prime minister addressed lebanese civilians, katy. he told them, look, we have no issue with you, just get out of the way. don't position yourself next to hezbollah military installation. ordinary lebanese people will say we don't know where the military installations are. you're telling us to leave an area, and we don't know where we can go and where is safe. and some very high level officials like gutierrez, the u.n. secretary general are concerned that lebanon could

become the next gaza. so there really is a lot of worry on this day. >> hala gorani, thank you, and joining us now, carnegie endowment and former arab israeli negotiator for the department of state, aaron david miller. good to have you. israel blew up the pagers, they're not taking credit, but american officials say it was them, and the walkie-talkies, now there have been a number of strikes over the past few days, increasing in intensity, what's the end goal for israel here? do they have an end goal? >> you know, for 11 months, we have been living on borrowed time, since october 8th when hezbollah decided to name the acts of resistance to unprovoked attacked israel and to demonstrate solidarity with the palestinians, we have been living with a degree of escalation. both sides were risk averse. i think what's changed, frankly, clearly, is the israelis have made a judgment that they have to find a way to alterisk

calculation in lebanon. they did it with pagers, and walky talks, key hezbollah commanders, some very close to the leader. my question, of course, always, watching the israels in gaza in eleven months is how do the means end up being correlated to the ends? if the israeli calculation that hezbollah will comply, lebanese don't want it, they'll be under pressure, which would be the use of one of hezbollah's weapons against high value target population centers and infrastructure in israel, which would force the israelis into a massive -- maybe the israelis decided to fundamentally over the next week or so continue to pommel hezbollah. the problem is, how does that

really get the 70,000 israelis that are dislocated back into their homes? i'm not sure i understand that, and the risks of miscalculation and escalation are clearly there. >> that was my question because we talk so much about the hostages here, but one of the biggest issues within israel, just as big as the hostages you might argue are the number of people that have been displaced from the north, some 60,000 people, maybe, happens more, that haven't been in their homes now for eleven months, we're coming up on the year anniversary. does israel actually think that hezbollah will back down enough to make those civilians within israel feel safe to go back home? >> i don't think they believe that. they have dealt to know, the real issue is how do you guarantee the security of the

northern border unless you can push back 10 kilometers or do what the israelis i think don't want to do, from '82 to 2000, in one form or another, they were in southern lebanon, and the reality is that did not guarantee security of the border. how does that degrade the weapons capacity get to the point where you have enough confidence to return those citizens to their towns and villages, knowing that hezbollah is the lead rival forces are still in tact, and could mount a cross border incursion, akin to what hamas did on october 7th. i don't have all the answers. we haven't seen this play out. the other issue is the biden administration. right now, i think it's extremely difficult. they seem to be amenable to understanding the israeli notion

that you've got to escalate in order to deescalate. i'm sure they warned the israelis that calibrating risk with that format is hard to do. the next 48 hours, we will see, and israelis could begin to mount, make preparations for a major ground op in lebanon, which would change the calculation, for now, one thing you have to look at. that is, will hezbollah choose to go beyond the 30 miles and will they direct their precision guided missions, against an israeli population center or a piece of major infrastructure. >> they're getting closer. it's not that far off from tel aviv. >> they willfully avoided siberia, that's what i'm looking for. >> there's also the concern, and we'll get to this at some other point, how thinly stretched the idf is right now and all of the reservists and soldiers after nearly a year of fighting in gaza. aaron david miller, thank you

very much. congressman jim himes joins us next, what he can tell us about u.s. forces being deployed to the middle east, what the u.s. is worried about right this moment. also, new numbers that challenge donald trump's claims about violent crime in this country. you'll find them in cities, towns and suburbs all across america. millions of americans who have medicare and medicaid but may be missing benefits they could really use. extra benefits they may be eligible to receive at no extra cost. and if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get extra benefits, too, through a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. call now to see if there's a plan in your area and to see if you qualify. all of these plans include doctor, hospital and prescription drug coverage. plus, something really special, the humana healthy options allowance. your allowance. to help pay for essentials like eligible groceries, utilities and rent. even over-the-counter items.

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the united nations secretary general has issued a warning to the world at the start of the united nations general assembly today saying, quote,

international challenges are moving faster than our ability to solve them. under the cloud of wars in ukraine, sudan, and gaza, and threats of more conflict to come between china and taiwan, presidents, prime ministers, and monarchs from 130 countries are slated to speak, ostensibly to reassert their commitment to multilateralism. president biden delivers remarks tomorrow as will iran's new president while palestinian president mahmoud abbas is expected to speak thursday morning, followed by israel's prime minister, benjamin netanyahu on thursday afternoon. joining us now, democratic congressman from connecticut, and ranking member of the house intelligence committee, jim himes. i'm going start broad with you, sir. is the world more or less safe than it was four years ago? >> reporter: well, the way you framed that, katy, you're sort of framing it as a presidential term thing. >> let me say a year ago.

i meant to say a year ago. >> obviously the world is far, far more complicated, far more dangerous than it was one year, two years, three years, six years, ten years ago. we didn't have a major land war in europe. i'm thinking about the u.n. general assembly meetings, it's a good thing diplomatic language prevails, because the russians will be there, the iranians will be there, sponsoring instability throughout the middle east. it's a very dangerous world right now, and keeps those of us on the national security side here in washington, d.c. very very busy. >> does it keep you up at night? >> well, there are moments. there are unquestionably moments, particularly in the middle east right now. right? you know, it seems like we're closer to a regional war in the middle east than we have been anytime since october 7th. i respect the israelis' efforts to finally get hezbollah to

comply with u.n. resolutions that say they cannot be on the northern border. the prime minister seems determined to provoke a major response from hezbollah, the whole beeper operation, and now, you know, these very aggressive attacks in lebanon. i would suggest that that's not good for the region. it's not good for the 40,000 armed forces that are in the region, and it may not be good for israel. in 2006, israel fought a war against hezbollah, and it did not go well. of course, today, they've got a major military operation in gaza. my hope is that the prime minister will decide to take a pause here. maybe it was escalate to deescalation, but the last part, deescalation is the important part right now. >> the u.s. is sending more materials and troops to the region. what is the u.s. preparing for? >> the additional troops have been pretty small, as i point out before, there's roughly 40,000 service people, u.s. service people in the region, our impact there, our potential

impact with the major air base in qatar, the naval base in bahrain and the uss lincoln in the region, we have the capability to project a lot of force in the region. that is designed to prevent the increasing antagonism between israel and hezbollah from really spiraling out of control. it's there to prevent the iranians from jumping into this thing. it's not a world we want to be in right now. i would hate to see american service members losing their lives or getting involved in a kinetic conflict that should be deescalated right now. >> i feel like this is a moment where language is failing us. for the past six months or longer, we have said repeatedly that tensions are rising in the middle east. they're higher than ever before. this is a moment. how do you scale that up? where are we today compared to where we were six weeks ago or six months ago? why is this moment so much scarier than the last?

>> well, i think it's scary because the war between israel and gaza was horrific from moment one. by the way, starting with a brutal attack that hamas undertook against israel, and it has just been a horrible, horrible atrocious war since, with massive loss of life on both sides of innocent life. that's bad enough. but hezbollah is orders of magnitude, a more competent military force than hamas was, with tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of missiles. were hezbollah to finally feel like they had no alternative, but to retaliate in force for the beeper attack or bombings we have been watching in the last 36 hours or so, the impact on israel could be very very severe. so, again, israel has a right to dehat hezbollah push back away from the northern border. it does not feel to me like this prime minister right now is interested in the deescalation part of the escalate to a deescalate part, and that is, again, where the united states

would get involved in a way that i don't think most americans want to see our troops, you know, caught between some cross fire in the middle east right now. >> i'm out of time. between the pagers and walkie-talkies and the strikes, how deeply has hezbollah been affected, have they been hampered in their ability to launch toward israel? >> i would say this, obviously whenever you mess with the leadership of an organization, in the short-term, it hurts them. there is always a vice president. there's always a vice admiral. there's always somebody ready to take that'think that taking out that leadership is necessarily a long-term solution to the problem. >> congressman jim himes, thank you very much. digging into the fbi's brand new statistics on crime. what it found that undermines donald trump's claim of a so-called kamala crime wave. that's what he calls it. it.

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violent dispia, a place where he says you can't even go buy a loaf of bread without getting mugged, or raped but do the numbers match his rhetoric? joining us now ken dilanian. i bought two loaves of bread yesterday and am happy that i did not get mugged, shot or raped while doing t what do the fbi crime numbers say with regards to what's happening in this country and what do they mean for donald trump's 43% numbers? >> that's just flatly wrong what donald trump said. the latest numbers from the fbi which come from cities, by the way, the fbi doesn't make these numbers up, show that violent crime overall declined by a rate of 3% in 2023 and that murder declined 11.6%, that's the largest single year drop on record. now, of course, the context here, katy is this is coming after a huge spike in violent crime during the pandemic. what is happening is it's settling back to pre-pandemic

levels, which were historically low. but what you will hear donald trump say is, well, a lot of the big cities aren't reporting to the fbi anymore. that's not true. it was true in 2021 when they changed how they collect crime data but this latest data covers 94% of the population, every city with a population of a million or more reported 12 months of data, that's new york, l.a., chicago, and they are all reporting crime it down. that rally you showed was in michigan. i traveled to detroit, interviewed the detroit police chief he said what donald trump is saying is just not true. he invites donald trump to walk the streets of detroit with him which have become much safer than they used to be. >> ken dilanian, thank you very much. and that's going to do it for me today, "deadline: white house" starts after this short break. , "deadline: white house" starts after this short break. you love your bike. we do, too. that's why we're america's number-one motorcycle insurer. but do you have to wedge it into everything? what? i don't do that. this reminds me of my bike. the wolf was about the size of my new motorcycle. have you seen it, by the way? happy birthday, grandma!

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