the democrats to get out there and plug the air waves and doing what we saw harris doing now. the media blitz of reminding folks why donald trump is dangerous for women and for women's reproductive rights. >> stuart and victoria, thank you very much. and we're just getting an update from the national hurricane center. hurricane milton is now a category 5 hurricane. this is one of the fastest growing tropical depression to hurricanes that we've seen in the recent past. take a look at the trajectory now. again, that cone is just, it could be anywhere in that cone but it's very clearly looking like it's heading towards the tampa bay area. sarasota, up to any other area but it is now a category 5 hurricane. it is expected to slow down a little bit and get a little less

strong before it reaches florida. that wraps up the hour for me. i'm jose diaz-balart. thank you for the privilege of your time. andrea mitchell picks up with nor news right now. right now, one year later. israel and the united states mourning the victim of the massacre by hamas on october 7th. starting at dawn on the site of the music festival. >> reporter: there was a memorial ceremony at sunrise here attended by the israeli president and they played the last track that festivalgoers heard on october 7th before the music stopped and the shooting started. there are no memorial ceremonies in gaza. just another day of palestinian families trying to survive as this war drags on. >> the middle east remaining a flash point with the battle in gaza evolving and expanding into lebanon, yemen, and potentially iran. i'll be joined this hour by the father of an american israeli

hostage also, during his return to butler, pennsylvania, former president trump and other speakers expanding on the false accusation that democrats were somehow behind the attempt on his life. >> slandered me, impeached me, indicted me, tried to throw me off the ballot. and who knows, maybe even tried to kill me. >> and we'll have a live report from florida as hurricane milton barrels forward and has just strengthened into a category 5 storm. good day, everyone. i'm andrea mitchell in washington. one year. one year after the horrifying hamas massacres in israel. a cease fire and hostage deal seem beyond reach. as the region creeps closer to an all out war. today is a day of remembrance of

mourning, and in the worlds of rachel goldberg, hope is mandatory. 1200 people from israel and many other countries including 46 americans were slaughtered by hamas terrorists on october 7th. families in their homes. friends at a music festival. male and female military guards on their military base. including grandparents, some holocaust survivors. 251 people were taken hostage that day. those have been released sharing stories of horrific sexual violence. describing the hell inside a vast network of dark hamas tunnels. more than 100 are still missing including four americans believed to be alive. their families stuck in limbo and expected to hold a vigil today with scores of supporters outside the white house and on the national mall. earlier on "today," the parents

of a 22-year-old american imploring leaders to make brave decisions to bring their son home. >> i pray and hope every single day that he's still alive, but for us, it's been a prolonged terrorist attack. and for the hostages for sure. just yesterday, we heard from military in israel that their conditions have worsened, so we don't understand. you know, where's the sense of urgency. >> bring sinwar and hamas as well as netanyahu and his government to the table and take brave decisions because it's time. ♪♪ >> just moments ago, president biden and first lady dr. jill biden lighting a candle, a traditional part of jewish mourning on anniversaries. and earlier, mr. biden speaking with the israeli president.

vice president harris will honor the october 7th victims later today at the naval observatory while donald trump attended to remembrance ceremonies in queens and in miami. israel has spent the past year reducing gaza to rubble. killing nearly 42,000 palestinians according to the hamas-run health ministry, and renewing this weekend for the third time israeli attacks against the refugee camp in northern gaza. israel saying hamas was re-grouping what had recently become a safe zone for displaced palestinians. despite all of this, hamas leader is still believed to be in the tunnels evading capture. we begin with raf sanchez in tel aviv and ben rhodes. raf, you were at the music center. you reported when this all happened straight through, i don't know how many days without

rest, and you returned to the site this morning at dawn where nearly 350 people were killed. 40 were taken hostage. one of the only journalists who made it to the site before the idf shut it down. describe being back there today. >> reporter: so, andrea, when we first visited the nova site on october 13th, there was just a deathly, deathly silence. we were walking among the debris of lives cut short. we were walking among the scattered suitcases of festivalgoers who had been killed, taken hostage in gaza. we were back there today. 6:29 a.m., one year to the minute that the attack began. it was not quiet today. there were the sounds of very, very raw grief. people who had come to visit the place where their brothers, sisters, husbands, wives, family members had been killed. they played the very last song

that was played at the festival before the attack began. it was sort of a last normal moment at that festival. and it was a, it was a powerful, moving experience. i can tell you, one of the other noises we heard was the sound of outgoing israeli artillery fire aimed at northern gaza. there were israeli helicopter gun ships overhead and it was a reminder that in gaza, there's no time really to mark this memorial. people are just trying to survive another day with this war without end. and i will say the first time i went to that music festival site, i asked the chief spokesman of the israeli military the question that so many israelis were asking, which is where was the army? the army that was supposed to protect the population of southern gaza? and in the year since we have heard the israeli military acknowledge painfully that they

failed in their mission to protect the people of israel. we have not heard that same acknowledgment from the government of israel and this long promise inquiry into the failures of october 7th. the failures and intelligence leading up to october 7th. not only hasn't started, but it's not clear when it's going to. so one year on, many of these enormous questions just remain unanswered. andrea? >> and to that point, ben rhodes, netanyahu has never accepted responsibility for the intelligence and the security failures and arguably won't until the war is over and those investigations are held. and right now, he is surging in terms of popularity because there's hope of getting those 60,000 plus back home to the north with the way he's managed to decimate hezbollah. he's riding high and he's also as ed loose writes in the financial times today, he's been

returning circles around the administration and others, but certainly around the white house. his closest allies. >> yeah, i mean, just as a matter of israeli politics, it's pretty extraordinary, maybe not surprising, that the day after october 7th, a lot of people in israel believed that netanyahu's political future was over. that he had had this image of mr. security, the one man that could protect israel against encroaching enemies and that was obviously punctured by the security failures of october 7th. everything he's done since then is very in tune with how he's managed his political career. kind of obfuscated responsibility, pushed it down into the military. he pushed forward, as raf said, any inquiry that might reveal the reasons why the military was not guarding the southern border of israel. that's largely because they were up in the west bank protecting

settlers and he avoided a cease fire deal that could have brought the hostages home in perpetuation of the war. both in terms of the conduct of the war in gaza but also going into lebanon and going after hezbollah's leaders and going with a ground invasion. all of these things have been against the council of the biden administration and i think what netanyahu's proven capable of doing is essentially ignoring what that council is believing that he has unconditional support from the united states of weapons and assistance and driving it himself. as an american, after october 7th, a lot of reference were made to 9/11 and the anniversary kind of reminds me the first year after 9/11, that raw feeling of loss coming back. after a year of geopolitics,

you're reminded of the shock of the families and that we seem to be in a war with no end and in a war that has political interests driving it in israel as well. so that's where we find ourselves. >> and ben, on that very first trip to israel after october 7th, when president biden went into a war zone, but also warned his israeli ally, don't make the mistakes we made after 9/11. don't go too far. as we did in iraq arguably and that warning certainly ignored. >> that's right. i mean, i think the trip that president biden made after october 7th, it had two functions. the first was just to grieve with a close friend of the united states and be there for people feeling such a visceral pain. it's also this feeling president biden's talked about that if you literally embrace israel, if you

hug netanyahu close, you will have some capacity to shave his actions. i think we've learned that's not the case. if anything, it's the opposite. the closer you are, the more running room netanyahu feels he have to do what he wants. that 9/11 reference biden made at the time was about regional action over escalation and where the administration would like to see some kind of non hamas palestinian administration take hold and on those two objectives, getting a cease fire in gaza. getting someone other than hamas but palestinians beginning to have a plan at least to administer gaza then avoiding that escalation particularly in lebanon. that part of the policy just has failed and that's where we are today. now, israel's achieved major gains in terms of taking out a lot of hamas infrastructure, a lot of hezbollah leadership obviously, but the question remains as it did after we went into iraq, can a military solution impose political order on the middle east. and everything that i've

experienced in my time, andrea, i think you've had similar experiences, is that without some kind of political plan, you know, the escalation could just become permanent and like a state of conflict just exists for an indefinite period. i think that's what people are very worried about. >> raf, politically, does netanyahu now have free reign because of the military successes of hezbollah? the assassinations of dreaded hezbollah and hamas leaders? does he have free reign to do whatever he wants in lebanon? to do whatever he wants in terms of iran? and he went back into gaza into jabalya. the end of october, a year ago, that bombing with the 2,000 pound bomb in the refugee camp is what gave excuse license to the u.n., to the rest of the world or actually fueled the turn from mourning with israel

to actually condemning israeli civilian deaths. >> reporter: the israeli military said they were going after a commander. they used an american-made bunker buster bomb and that explosion killing well over 100 people. as you say, it was sort of a turning point that the world's deep grief and shock over october 7th you know is beginning to turn sharply to the scale of the suffering inside of gaza and that suffering that has just continued over the last year. and your point is a good one, andrea. in terms of jabalya. it's at the very northern edge of the gaza strip. it was one of the first places that israeli forces entered when they began the ground invasion after october 7th and they have come back again and again as they've come back to darabola

and it is for many people looking on, a symbol that there does not appear to be a strategy here. that instead, you sort of have the israeli military playing whack a mole in gaza. going from one area to another pursuing hamas only for hamas to pop up wherever it is the israeli military left before. andrea? >> raf, ben, on such a somber day. thank you both for giving us all that context. i appreciate it. and in just 90 seconds, i'll be joined by the father of an american israeli man, a young man held hostage for a full year by hamas on the latest efforts to bring the hostages home. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports." this is msnbc. watching "anda rl reports. this is msnbc.

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looking good, guys! thanks! vacations are better with the credit gods are on your side. i'm coming up! rewards once available to the few are now accessible to the many. earn points for travel with credit one bank, and live large. for the families of the 101 hostages still being held by hamas in gaza, it has been a heartbreaking year of fear and uncertainty. seven americans are still being held captive. four of whom are believed to be alive including a 36-year-old who was captured by october 7th at his kibbutz. his wife and three young daughters, including a 10-month-old infant he has never seen, are enduring the pain of his absence.

he spoke with raf sanchez in israel about how they are coping. >> where's my daddy. mom, why is not come back. why daddy's not here to celebrate a birthday. >> and what do you tell your daughters? >> my heart is broke but i need to be strong so i tell them i hope that he is okay. we don't know, but i hope. >> joining me now is his father, jonathan. jonathan, on this anniversary, you know, our hearts are with you. we've gotten to know you but there's no way we can feel your pain. but raf i think did such a beautiful report, there's a longer version online that we'll share with your viewers as well, with your family there. >> well, first, thank you, andrea, for having me back and under the worst possible circumstances. look, it's has been an uphill

battle from the start to keep the story of the hostages on the international front burner. as the fighting escalates in israel and around israel, it's becoming that much harder to make sure that within all the violence that has broken out in our region, to understand the hostages need to be in the middle. not simply because of a humanitarian story but also because the only way the madness starts to end right now is by completing a deal between hamas and israel. get the hostages home. get a cease fire. stop the suffering in gaza and then diffuse the rest of the conflicts. >> there was some of the families, the american families, met with white house officials yesterday. were you among them? >> i was. we met virtually with brett mcgirk yesterday and it was a

continuation of now dozens of such meetings that we've had with various senior officials and they're always, i'm not sure that they're encouraging at this point. because things are deadlocked with the hostage negotiation. but we are incredibly appreciative that the most senior u.s. officials are speaking with us regularly and at high level. >> rachel goldberg, hersh's mother, says home is mandatory. it's hard to keep hope alive as it's escalating in lebanon, expanding to iran. it's now a regional war or approaching a regional war that everyone had tried to avoid since october 8th. does netanyahu now have free reign to expand this, what he perceives as israel's security? >> it's a good question.

as far as his government is concerned, yes, it would seem that if he and his government were preaching for the first many months of the war against hamas, looking for total victory, which was always a myth. it's not possible to have total victory over an ideology as pathological as it might be for hamas. so that was a fantasy. now, it appears that our israeli government is pursuing a total war. seven fronts who knows if it will expand beyond there. where nobody benefits and certainly not the hostages. at this point, not just the hostages but all people of the region need well meaning people, well meaning governments to step forward in order to diffuse this incredibly dangerous conflict. not just for the countries and the peoples of the region, but

it could also be incredibly damaging for the world economy and for international security. and you know, the corner stones of this are getting hamas to yes somehow to a yes for an agreement that allows for the hostages to come back and for the citizens, the innocent civilians in gaza, to stop their suffering. but until that happens, it's very difficult to know how this downward spiral stops. >> and with all the focus on netanyahu, obviously sinwar and hamas could release jonathan and everyone else right now. tomorrow. what do you know from those who have returned? about his condition? >> well, we know very little about his condition. to remind you, late november, early december, there was a first wave of hostages released. about 100.

as a result of a negotiated agreement between israel and hamas that both sides were forced to, to agree to, in different ways. at this time, 100 come home. 40 are from my kibbutz. women and children. and a handful of them were able to tell us that they had encountered sagui briefly in the tunnels under gaza. at the time, and again, this is a lifetime ago. >> november. >> he was alive and wounded. they could also tell us about a lot of other people from our kibbutz, men mostly, who remained behind. the horrifying part of this or the even more horrifying part is that many of those same men that they had seen and spoken with and lived with for a time, are now dead. either executed by hamas in the ensuing months or by neglect. a lot of older men who had chronic conditions and simply were left to die by hamas, or by friendly fire.

meaning the misplaced israeli bomb or artillery shell. things happen in the fog of war. we are desperate at this point. it's clear that every day bringing only greater danger. >> looking at you, jonathan, i referred to sagui as jonathan, but we're talking about your son. and what do you say to your grandchildren? >> well, those beautiful faces that you saw, we tell them as much truth as we can. that their dad and a lot of other dads from our kibbutz are being held in gaza and that we are doing everything we can to get all those dads and children home. it's not just their dad. there are, there's a couple of little boys who are still being held. we have no idea if they're still alive. and lots of grandfathers that are still there. all of them civilians.

and all victims of a horrific massacre on october 7th, but the people of gaza in a manner of speaking, are also victims of that same hamas regime that has no compunction about sacrificing tens, perhaps hundreds of thousands of civilians in gaza for only one reason. to launch a regional holy war of destruction against israel. now, if the world is willing to let that just be, then this anniversary of that massacre, we're in far greater trouble. humanity is in far greater trouble than we might now understand. >> and your heart is so big. i know you always mention the people of gaza as do we because they're all victims of this war. our thoughts are with sagui and your family and with the other hostages. >> thank you so much for keeping

a spotlight on the hostages. >> we will not stop. thank you. >> thank you. we'll be right back. your shipping manager left to "find themself." leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. sponsored jobs on indeed are two and a half times faster to first hire. visit indeed.com/hire

breaking news from the gulf of mexico where hurricane milton has rapidly strengthened. it is now a category 5 storm and is predicted to make landfall in florida by wednesday. marisa is driving through treasure island, florida, near

st. petersburg. first, let's get the forecast, the latest from bill karins. bill, this is really a lot worse than we even feared. >> this isn't what we wanted to see happen today, andrea. of course, what it is now doesn't mean it's going to be that when it gets to florida. we've only had ten category 5 hurricanes in our recorded history in the gulf of mexico and we're looking at one here. this little pin eye. it's a small storm but it's extremely intense. the eye's only ten miles wide and that's where these 160 mile per hour winds are. yesterday at this time, it was 60 miles per hour. it has increased 100 miles per hour in 24 hours. that's only happened once in our recorded history with wilma. the hurricane center has it being a strong category 5, liking peaking in intensity tonight and tomorrow morning then going to a category 4 during the day on tuesday. wednesday from a 4 hopefully a little lower down to a 3 as we get landfall. that cone of uncertainty goes up to cedar key, florida and down

to the fort myers beach area. so this is a highly populated region and includes sarasota, st. petersburg and all of the tampa bay area. maybe 60 hours to landfall. we'll be watching all of our computer models. a couple have been far to the south and if that happened, landfall could be as early as wednesday afternoon but the hurricane center is saying they don't believe these. they think they have some errors going on with them so we're watching these northern models. the black lines, these show a landfall as we go through late wednesday evening towards midnight. maybe 8:00 p.m. to midnight, sarasota to tampa bay region. further north, it would be later than that. that will be one of the trends to watch, but unfortunately for our friends in the disney complex, universal studios through orlando, this could be remnants of what charlie did. this could make landfall as a major hurricane and still be a category 2 or 1 hurricane over central florida throughout thursday night into thursday

morning. i was there for charlie in orlando. it was extreme tree damage and people didn't have power for weeks so obviously the worst destruction would be on the coast with this storm surge but even inland, we could have extreme wind damage and people without power for weeks. andrea, you think of how taxed fema is right now with what they're dealing with in north carolina and georgia and south carolina. adding this on to the plate, it's horrible for so many. >> well, to that very point, i see that the tracks are mostly heading out to the ocean but there's one track that's heading north? how likely is that to be heading back right into the southeast coast, which is of course still hammered? >> everyone in georgia, north carolina, south carolina is watching this closely but nothing is hinting that this is going to go up there for people trying to get power back for helene. this looks like it will remain florida's problem. >> thank you so much, bill, and marisa, you're down there.

how are people repairing? are they taking the governor's warnings to get out when they can? >> reporter: hey, andrea, i am joining now from the car, we made our way to treasure island, this was one of the barrier islands off the coast of st. petersburg. that peninsula, pinellas county that got hit really hard. so the reason that we're out here actually what we're driving past, i want to turn the camera so you can see for yourself. these debris piles, this is lining the streets everywhere we drive here. this is just treasure island and this a massive concern for all of the reasons you can imagine. this is leftover from hurricane helene that was just over a week ago. and these are not, this is not what you want to see right before another major hurricane. these could be projectiles. you don't want to see these either flying around in the wind or ahead of another potential storm surge. more flooding. you don't want that floating your way and so this is a top priority for the state. we know they're working around

the clock 24/7 to remove exactly that. as far as those evacuations, i can tell you now, i have seen more traffic ahead of a hurricane than i've ever seen heading out of here, heading out of the island, heading out of st. petersburg so it does look like, and i'm hearing on the ground, people are heeding that. the governor said they might be taking precautions, opening up the shoulder of highways, making it easier for people to get out of harm's way. >> thank you. drive carefully and be safe. next, former president trump ramping up the rhetoric on the campaign trail suggesting democrats may be behind the attempts on his life. you're watching that speech from butler, pennsylvania coming up and a lot more politics. we'll be right back. and a lot more politics. we'll be right back. (man) these men of means with their silver spoons. what will become of them when they discover robinhood gold allows others to earn their very liberal rates on idle cash. they would descend into chaos.

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with 29 days to go before election, at least before election day, people are already voting in a number of places, former president trump went to butler, pennsylvania over the weekend. the site of his first assassination attempt where mr. trump and his son, eric, falsely blamed democrats for the attempt on the former president's life. vice president harris has a media blitz planned for this week. mostly friendly outlets like the view and steven colbert but a sit-down with 60 minutes tonight. making headlines already though, her response to 60 minutes to governor and former trump

official, sarah huckabee sanders who said because harris has no biological children, she has stepchildren, she has no one to keep her humble, in her words. >> i don't think she understands that there are a whole lot of women out here who one, are not aspiring to be humble. two, a whole lot of women out here who have a lot of love in their life. increasingly, you know, all of us understand that you know, this is not the 1950s anymore. families come in all kinds of shapes and forms and they're family nonetheless. >> that was on the call your daddy podcast. joining us now, peter baker. ashley parker. former republican governor and presidential candidate, john kasich.

and former chief of stat to senator fetterman of pennsylvania and deputy chief of staff to senator harry reid, majority leader i should say. first, peter, you and your colleagues are writing that trump's speeches have grown darker, harsher, angrier, less focused, more profane and you're talking about the question of age. he's now the oldest candidate at 78. you point out more of his speeches point out to things always or never happening inaccurately. a sign sometimes of dispersive thinking and of aging. >> yeah. well, of course obviously while joe biden was in the race, not a lot of attention was paid to donald trump's age. even though he's only three years younger. biden had trouble with his physicality, obviously. he had a shuffle when he walked. had a hard time projecting his voice times. he looked frail. trump doesn't look frail. he looks energetic at these

rallies. he's bombastic and loud. so he doesn't present the same way. but once biden left the race, more attention is focused on what trump was saying and if you pay attention to what he's saying, at times, it seems hard to follow, disjointed, rambling. at times, even incoherent. we have, we went time before going back and looking at rally speeches back to 2015 when he first jumped on the political stage and we found through computer analysis as well as observations, some changes. more willing to use all or nothing language. more willing to use curse words. longer speeches. nearly twice as long as they used to be. more willing to use negative words than positive words. one thing that wasn't really different was the complexity of his speeches. he speaks around a fourth grade level. lower than most of his rivals but that part hasn't really changed much but there have been changes on these other indicators and people say those

can be a sign of age. >> and ashley on abortion, harris really hitting back at trump's accusations. that democrats were okay with abortion in the ninth month. you're writing that republicans have been distancing themselves from abortion restrictions, trying to gloss over it as vance did in the debate. talk to me about that. they clearly understand that that's a big issue for them. >> yeah, they understand this is not a winning political issue for them and in a post dobbs world, it has become a reality for many women and it's no longer an abstract discussion and no longer about would you, do you support overturning roe v wade or not. now as someone put it to me, there's basically 50 different discussions going on because every state is having its own discussion. this cycle alone in ten states including arizona and nevada, there's reproductive rights,

abortion, measures on the ballots. so it's been interesting as you have these candidates from jd vance who in that debate, he spoke of a friend, unnamed friend in an abusive relationship who chose to terminate her pregnancy as if he supported her decision. he didn't quite say that, but that was the takeaway and that is not his stance at all. that's not what he ran on when he ran for senate. you've seen trump kind of been all over the map and then one of the reasons i did the story was because we noticed it in down ballot races. you're having republican gubernatorial candidates trying to soften or change their past stances on abortion rights and even in the house, there's a small group of republicans and this is surprising, who are describing themselves in some cases despite of voting record that shows otherwise, as pro-choice. so there's what they believe privately. there's how they've acted in terms of laws and votes and past statements and then there's now

less than four weeks until election day, what they're saying to try to win voters who are not particularly comfortable in a post roe v. wade world. >> and governor kasich, donald trump and others are hammering kamala harris about the response to helene, saying it's her katrina, falsely claiming again today that the recovery money is being sent to migrants. two republicans have fact checked him over the weekend. north carolina senator tom killis. and tennessee governor bill lee. >> i've seen a lot of storms come through this state. i'm actually impressed with how much attention was paid to a region that wasn't likely to have experienced the impact that they did. >> there's nothing but commitment to serving the people in this state and those who spread that kind of misinformation, it's deeply unfortunate that that's happening. >> the senator said aid is coming in slower than he would like, but as a former governor,

just the fact checking alone, there's a separate fema account that was paying for migrants in some of these cities. it's completely separate. it has nothing to do with storm relief. and they've already sent at least by saturday, there were $27 million in that one area of north carolina. that's been so hard hit. so this is actually according to pete buttigieg yesterday with jen psaki. this disinformation or misinformation. both. which is hurting the relief efforts. some people are evacuating when they don't need to. people are getting the wrong idea of what's available to them. >> it's just so disappointing, it's beyond disappointing. it's maddening to see that a person running for president would try to use something like this where there's been such tremendous hardship. loss of life. to try to create a fable here. i mean, look. anytime you have something like this, the officials in charge are always going to say they

wish things had been delivered faster. that's always going to happen, but to say somehow that money that was designed to go to hurricane relief has been spent on immigrants, i mean, it's just, it's just dead wrong. but he continues to say it. and you know, there's this thing now as you know about spinning conspiracy theories and you know, people on the internet like to think oh, well, the government just doesn't care. they're doing their own thing and this is, this kind of gins up some of his base. by and large, i think the problem he's going to have as we get to election day, is that there's going to be a chunk of republicans who will not vote for him under any set of circumstances and i think that number's probably 15% in that category. she will not have that problem. i mean, she'll be over 90 in terms of the democrats that turn out and vote, but every time he

does this, he puts himself farther and farther behind. and frankly, the ramifications should be that. as you know, i've been opposed to him for six years since he came on the scene and it's just, it's terrible. >> but it's still neck and neck. adam, pennsylvania, where you have worked on behalf of senator fetterman, of course, that is now one of the key places where he thinks that he can turn the tide. he's going to redding and scranton this week. already been in butler. and my own sense is that there's an undercount still. no matter how they try to relate the polls. that a lot of trump voters are not counted. >> yeah. there's, it's hard to know what to make of the polls these days. i think that you know, vice president harris is up by a little bit in most polls in pennsylvania but i think her campaign would be wise to operate as if they are down because there's always the risk

as you say, of undercounting trump voters and we've seen that happen when he's on the ballot. it happened in 2020 when pennsylvania ended up being a lot closer than the polls showed it would be. president biden still won it, but by a very narrow margin. the other thing you see that's interesting this cycle is a lot more attention being paid by both campaigns to the western part of the state. that's where butler is. north of pittsburgh. and traditionally, democrats tend to spend more time focusing on the eastern part of the state where philadelphia is. the corridor runs through there but both campaigns are being smart this time about spending equal amounts of time in the western part of the state. if you're a democrat, you're in pittsburgh, but you want to make sure your hold your margins down in the rural parts of the state. trump's going to win those parts but the key to victory in pennsylvania for democrats will be losing them by less because those margins really matter. so far, i think the harris

campaign is doing a smart job of that. senator casey is also doing a smart job of that. it will be close. pennsylvania always is. but we will see how this comes down on election day. >> well, it is so close. this is a real nail biter for both sides. peter, ashley, john, adam, thanks to all of you. and next, reality check on those efforts to end the growing war or try to limit it in the middle east and the likely next steps for israel's prime minister. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports" on msnbc. watching "anl reports" on msnbc. has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or

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visit bentcarrot.com to find one today. and israel attacking northern gaza in its invasion, again this weekend, including the jabalya refugee camp, the region seems on the verge of a regional war that the u.s. has been trying to avoid since october 8th. joining us now is ambassador adan pinkas, the former adviser to israel prime minister and israeli consul general in new york. thank you very much, ambassador, for being with us. the israeli military and intelligence success against both hezbollah and iran so far seem to have reversed the sagging polls for the prime minister.

the prospect of people getting back to their homes in the north, of course. does he now have a mandate for doing whatever he wants to do next in both lebanon and iran? >> well, he has a political mandate, that's for sure. i'm not sure about the public mandate. you know, the psyche, the mind-set, the zeitgeist is let's slam into hezbollah and let's retaliate against iran, but pretty soon people will start asking, to what end? what are the political objectives here? and there are none. just as much as there were no political goals and objectives in gaza. so, yes, the military successes have bolstered her -- or boosted, rather, his standing. he's still very much unpopular. today is obviously october 7th and the calamity and debacle is still squarely on her shoulders, something for which he never took responsibility or was

willing to be held accountable. he will have the public backing, andrea, if he retaliates against iran, because people are saying, look, this was asymmetrical. israel assassinated, killed, eliminated nasralaha. that was no justification for iran launching 181 ballistic missiles. what people tend to forget, israel also assassinated ishmael, the hamas leader. so the iranians feel compelled in terms of their standing, their prestige, their reputation that they needed to respond. now israel is bound to respond. so the public will support him, but very soon people will start asking questions, why was the bilateral confrontation with iran necessary. you could have done what you

needed to do vis-a-vis what you needed to do, but why did you have to support iran? we're days before that comes out. >> in terms of iran, the prime minister clearly believes that this is a generational opportunity, to go after iran, to go after the route of what is an existential threat by iran and its proxies, certainly, to israel's existence. so, to play devil's advocate, among others, is calling for regime change. >> yeah, i remember the last time mr. bolton went for regime change in iraq, supported by netanyahu, who said that a regime change in iraq will quote/unquote reverberate across the region, and bring down the ayatollah regime in iran. here we are, 22 years later, and it didn't happen.

but the thing is, andrea, i understand the devil's advocate approach here. and, you know, a strike against hezbollah in particular, but also against iran is warranted, to a degree. but you have to understand where netanyahu was coming from. he devised or concocted this alternative narrative, according to which october 7th was not a hamas -- was not nearly a hamas terror attack against israel, but it is part of a regional war of a civilizational war, of a 360-degree encirclement of israel. okay, i understand that. but you know, every time a politician says that via military means we will reconfigure and remodel a region in general and a region like the middle east in particular, i become suspicious, and i become anxious. it rarely if ever works. >> and do you think at this point that there's any way

politically to get them to stand back? certainly, the u.s. has no leverage. or isn't using the leverage it has. >> well, okay. i subscribe to the -- to the latter part of what you just said, andrea. it's not using its leverage. you know, it's sort of a hail mary approach was to summon the defense minister to the u.s. he's scheduled to meet with the defense secretary lloyd austin on wednesday, so i understand. and that was, that was -- you know, the only leverage that the u.s. seems to have employed. i fail to see how the u.s. can stop this at this point. i also fail to see if they really want to stop this. >> which is another whole question, indeed. >> yeah. >> for the next conversation, soon. alon pinkas, thank you. >> thank you, , always great to be with you. >> that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports."

remember, follow the show on social media @mitchellreports. you can re-watch the best parts of our show anytime on youtube, just go to msnbc.com/andrea. "chris jansing reports" starts after a short break. " starts after a short break.

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good day. i'm chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york city. a day of terror, fear, and pain