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good day. i'm chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york city. trying to hold it together. what new polling tells us about kamala harris' ability to keep the democratic coalition that put joe biden in the white house in tact. her focus this week squarely on black and hispanic voters. will it make a difference during this final stretch? plus, the war in the middle east escalating on multiple fronts, with hezbollah launching new attacks on israel hours after israeli air strikes decimated a hospital complex and shelter in gaza. in lebanon, the u.s. embassy issuing its starkest warning yet for americans still there, to get out now. and republicans are this close to taking back the senate. a win in just one of a handful of competitive races will likely give them the majority. so what are the chances democrats can stop that from happening? but we start with kamala harris facing a concerning

challenge for her campaign. keeping a once reliable portion of the democratic coalition, black and hispanic voters, from eroding. this morning, she released a new opportunity agenda for black men and heads to erie, pennsylvania, tonight to talk with black entrepreneurs. she'll do the same tomorrow in detroit, then sit for a live interview with one of the most popular black radio hosts in america. it comes from polling from "the new york times" and nbc news shows she didn't doing as well with black voters as joe biden did in 2020, when exit polls show he got 87% of that vote. harris was asked in an interview released earlier today about concerns black voters and, specifically, black men aren't excited about her campaign. >> one, that's not my experience. two, election day has not arrived yet. >> okay. >> and the third point that is probably the most important point is this.

you know, when journalists ask me this question, i often will say to them, let's be clear that your i understand lying premise is not an assumption that i'm supposed to have black men in my back pocket in terms of their vote. and i should be taking that for granted. because i don't. black men are no different from anybody else. they expect that you have to earn their vote. >> it is not just black voters. polls show she is not polling as well with hispanic voters as biden did in the 2020 election either. while she is still dominant with both groups, taken together, "the times" says even modest erosion in their support could be consequential in a race that is effectively tied. i want to bring in national political correspondent steve

kornacki. sahil kapoor is in washington. carlos curbelo is a former congressman from florida and msnbc political analyst. what a great panel. sahil, how is the campaign trying to reach out to these key voting groups specifically? >> hey, this is a perennial concern for democrats, holding their strong showing with black voters. it came to the fore with president obama campaigning in the pittsburgh area, sounding the alarm on a lack of enthusiasm, specifically among black men. kamala harris put this in bold font, as a goal she wants to pursue. today, she plans to rally in the arena behind me in erie, pennsylvania, rolling through an agenda for black men. a million fully forgivable loans for black entrepreneurs and others starting a business. it includes funding for education and training programs.

it'd protect crypto currency in a regulatory framework. she proposes a health initiative to address sickle cell prostate cancer and things that disproportionately affect african americans. she wants to boost the economy. some polls, including our nbc news poll, finds harris is winning 84% of black voters. compare that to 2020 when exit polls found that joe biden won 87%. a pew study found joe biden won 92% of black voters. whichever way you slice this, she is underperforming a little bit with black men. donald trump is trying to make modest inroads with young black men, mainly working class, who are worried about the economy, who don't have the cultural affinity to the democratic party that maybe their parents have, which is why democrats have been doing so well in the past. in a game of inches, in a game where a few thousand votes could

be crucial in determining battleground states like pennsylvania, harris cannot afford any erosion among black voters, which is why i suspect we'll hear more about that from her. >> no doubt about that. to pick up on that, maya, "the times" says, quote, almost any way we can measure it, mr. trump is running as well or better among black and hispanic voters as any republican in recent memory. i mean, is an opportunity agenda an answer to that? i wonder if this surprises you and what kamala harris can do about it. >> i would say the opportunity agenda is a huge way to start to focus on this issue. and i think what's important is that this isn't new for harris. i think as we just heard her say, she has not taken for granted any of the votes that she's trying to earn. that includes black votes. i think that there is something we have to be really sort of sober about when talking about

this kind of thing. the black vote, and specifically black men, black men have been the second most reliable voters for the democratic party. that behavior, coupled with the fact that whatever poll we're looking at, we're still looking at an overwhelming majority of black voters indicating they're going to vote for kamala harris -- >> yes, but i need to go back to the point that sahil made and "the new york times" makes. he called it a game or election of inches. some people i talk to would argue that it's a game of centimeters at this point. it's that close. even a drop off of a few percentage points in, as you rightly say, the second most reliable democratic voting group could be important. >> absolutely. and i think that is why exactly what kamala harris is doing is what needs to be done. it's taking a look at the policies but also the message, and making sure that black

voters understand that what she is rolling out, what she is talking about is geared toward making sure that the pain points that they're experiencing every day are things that are going to be a priority for the administration. >> carlos, i mean, all of this is despite trump's racial grievances, right? the way he talks, for example, about migrants. his rhetoric in general, which harris tried to address over the weekend. >> donald trump cares more about scaring people, creating fear, running on a problem, instead of what real leaders do, which is to participate in fixing problems. [ applause ] well, i care about fixing problems. and as president of the united states, i will be focused each and every day on solving problems that affect you and your family.

>> the first part of that, though, i think, and it's what i want to ask you about, carlos, is that, yes, it is the politics of fear. nobody disputes that. but for donald trump, it seems to work. if you listen to voters, a lot of his supporters say they read that as strength. so i wonder if you think kamala harris' argument that we just heard there will work. >> well, chris, i think what the vice president said in that clip is true, but what she said in the earlier clip you played is also true. one of the big challenges democrats are having is that they have taken a lot of these communities for granted for many years. they have felt entitled to the support of hispanic americans, of african americans, and that just doesn't work that way, right? that whole idea that demographic destiny. well, you have to work at it. you have to have policies that those groups happen to agree with. the other problem, chris, is that the activist class in the

democratic party, where white progressive has to have a major influence, that weighs heavily on the democratic party. you take an issue like immigration, where for years, the activists have demanded that the democratic party essentially process every single person that comes into the border illegally into the country. well, it turns out a lot of hispanic and african american voters don't agree with that policy. so this erosion has been taking place for a few years now. now, the vice president is trying to halt it, here just a few weeks before the election. i don't know that it's going to work. >> steve, tell us what else the new nbc news poll tells us. >> yeah, i mean, it tells you, in our poll there, there has been a shift since last month. we have a 48/48 tie right now. a month ago, polls showed a five-point harris advantage. now, in the time in between, what's happened? this first one was taken right after the harris/trump debate. we've now had the vp debate. harris has given some interviews. there have been other intervening events. there's that shift.

underneath it, this might be the most significant finding here. a lot of numbers on the screen. look at the left to start with. this is the basic perception voters have of the candidates. we ask, is it positive or negative? it looks about the same. 43 positive for trump. 43 positive for harris. a negligible difference for both. a month ago, trump's ratings were still low. harris had a 48 positive, 45 negative. a month ago, harris had an advantage over trump on image, on likability. in our poll, that image -- that advantage now a month later is gone for her. there's also this, some of the headwinds that harris is facing here as the incumbent vice president in an unpopular administration. in our poll, joe biden's approval rating sits around where it's been a while, 43%. one of the reasons a lot of democrats wanted biden out as their candidate was the low

approval rating. we asked donald trump when he was president thinking back, do you approve or disapprove of how he did as president? a retrospective job approval rating. look at this, it clocks in at 48%. that is five points higher than where biden is right now. i think also significantly, that's higher than trump ever actually got when he was president. for an approval rating in our poll. it says that, slightly, there's a bit of a rosier view of trump's presidency now than when he was actually president. that seems to benefit him and, obviously, we're down against harris. question two of issues. we asked it differently this time around. we tried to really pinpoint some of these by asking, is there one issue that is so important to you that you would vote entirely on the basis of that issue perhaps? abortion, when you ask the question that way, is the issue most mentioned. 22% of voters said it could be that important to them. you see immigration and the border underneath it at 19%. take a look at how the candidates stack up on these issues. you see trump's biggest

advantage is on immigration and the border. he has a 25 point advantage over harris. that's to say, you ask who would do a better job on immigration and the border? by a 25 point margin, they're saying trump. the issue of abortion, which, again, more voters say that could be singularly decisive for them over any other issue, it is harris' biggest advantage. 19 points over trump on abortion. that's where democrats, again, they've leaned heavily into this message. they believe it's one on election day that could motivate voters to get out and vote for harris, give them a turnout advantage. that's their biggest advantage. trump's continues to be on immigration and the border, the 25 point edge is up for him from where it was a month ago. >> fascinating stuff. steve kornacki, thank you for that. i want to go back, maya, to the retrospective number. poll after poll after poll, in people's memories, donald trump was a much better president than

they actually said he was when they were living under donald trump as president. what do you do if you're kamala harris with that? how do you combat people's feeling and perceptions, which clearly are different than when they were actually living it? >> absolutely. i mean, look, i think what that does tell us is something that we know. i think the biggest thing for kamala harris is not to overreact to polls like this. we know that people tend to look differently and more favorably at the past than what they actually felt in the moment. and, i mean, she also knew that there is going to be some penalty for being the sitting vice president for anything that is going wrong. it can be conflated with her. this is all stuff that she knew coming into this. it is october. this is the tightening and the realities of it getting closer and closer to the time that people are voting. i think what you're seeing with her is exactly what the campaign

needs to be doing, which is not focusing on the noise and focusing on getting a message out. because the only thing that's going to combat people thinking they remember a rosier picture of a president trump is reminding people what it was actually like. and telling them about her vision for their future. and i think, again, as we get -- we're going to get closer to the time of people voting, that'll be the only poll that matters. >> congressman, there's one more interesting thing about this poll that mark murray pointed out when he was on "morning joe" this morning. he says it shows that non-maga republicans are coming home to trump. i know for a while, the expectation was people who were sort of on the fence, who had voted for donald trump before, would likely come home. but do you think that there is still -- there are still voters out there, non-maga republicans, who might be on the fence, that are still winnable for kamala harris? >> i do, chris.

i think that those types of voters can be decisive in terms of who wins this election. i think the vice president, for example, made a nice overture of these voters when she said that she would appoint a republican to her cabinet. i think she needs to continue focusing on this idea of bringing the country together, uniting the country, turning the page on this period of very toxic politics that we've all experienced over the last decade or so. she had started making that argument. i feel like she's drifted away from it. donald trump also had the opportunity to make that type of argument after his assassination attempt. he refused to do so. he failed to do so. she still has the opportunity to make that argument, to say that she will be a president for all americans. i really do think that a lot of those republicans who are still holding out because they don't really like donald trump, they might be willing to give her a second look as they prepare to go to the polls. >> sahil kapur and maya rupert,

thank you both. carlos, you'll stay with us. coming up in 90 seconds, sirens sounded across israel due to projectiles launched from lebanon. the new assistance on the way from the u.s. we have got a live report from tel-aviv right after this. with downy unstopables, you just toss, wash, wow. for all-day freshness. humana medicare advantage plans. carry this card and you could have the power to unlock benefits beyond original medicare. these are convenient plans that offer all of the benefits of original medicare, plus extra coverage and benefits. with a humana medicare advantage plan, you could get doctor, hospital and prescription drug coverage in one convenient plan. most

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lebanese territory. overnight, four people died and more than 60 were injured in a hezbollah drone attack on a military base in northern israel. it's all happening as the u.s. agrees to send a new missile defense system to israel, along with u.s. troops to operate it. deepening america's involvement in the crisis, now raging on multiple fronts. nbc's erin mclaughlin is reporting from tel-aviv. courtney kube is at the pentagon for us. erin, israel's iron dome is world famous, but it is not perfect. what can you tell us about these attacks from lebanon? >> reporter: yeah, that's right, chris. that imperfection was on full display last night when that hezbollah drone apparently went undetected through israeli air space, slamming into the galani base to the north of israel as the troops there were eating dinner, killing four of them, injuring scores more. i was speaking to a former israeli commander of israel's

air defense. he was telling me just how challenging it is to try and detect and prevent drones from entering israel's air space and conducting these attacks. he said they're extremely small. they're extremely slow moving, and they fly at low altitudes. if you can't detect them, you can't intercept them. take a listen to what he had to say. >> we are not prepared enough for that situation, and the fact is, that's our enemies. recognize that, saw that, and they're using lots and lots of drones and uavs from iran, from iraq, from yemen, and, of course, hezbollah. >> reporter: to that end, israel's defense minister says that what happened last night is under investigation, and they plan to learn from that attack. chris? >> thank you so much for that. courtney, american troops are on

their way to israel along with the missile defense system i mentioned. what has the biden administration committed to? >> reporter: yeah, so these are the troops who would be operating this missile defense system. it is known as t.h.a.a.d. the critical piece of why this is so important to this threat right now in israel, it's the first letter in the word t.h.a.a.d., t, stands for terminal. what that means, this missile interceptor system hits into an incoming missile in the terminal phase. that's basically the dive. as the missile is diving towards its target, the t.h.a.a.d. system fires an interceptor. itwarhead. it's a kinetic kill vehicle. it fires a missile into the incoming missile and blows itself up using the incoming missile's own warhead or explosives to detonate itself. why this is so important to the current threat, chris, is because it has the ability, the t.h.a.a.d. system, to intercept shorter range missiles, exactly

the kind of threat that is emanating from hezbollah right now. this gives the israelis the ability to take out, to stop some of those shorter-range missiles that could be threatening israel right now. but in addition to that, it also has more of a symbolic message here. this shows, as you mentioned, that the u.s. is willing to send this new system there, as well as dozens of u.s. troops who would be there to carry out the mission, to help use this interceptor system to defend israel. we've been hearing every single time we hear from u.s. officials about the relationship with israel, we hear the same terminology. the ironclad commitment to defend israel. this is really the u.s. putting their money where their mouth is. not only sending this expensive system but sending the u.s. troops to operate it. but it also does signify the u.s. sees this as a threat. on the drone threat erin was discussing, remember how difficult this is for the israelis to defend against. of course, we could never forget the incoming drone that killed

three u.s. service members at tower 22 in jordan only months ago. that was the same exact threat that the israelis are facing from these drones from hezbollah right now. they fly low. they fly literally under radars, and they're very difficult to detect. again, it's not just the israelis who have a difficult time defending against these, chris. >> erin, let me ask you about gaza. dozens were killed, hundreds hurt in israeli air strikes near, i think a school and a hospital, according to palestinian officials. what's the latest on that? >> reporter: you know, chris, speaking to palestinians in gaza, they say that the situation that's been unfolding there for days now is very reminiscent, they say, to the early days of the war. aerial bombardment, artillery strikes, israeli troops on the ground. to that effect, today, there was a scathing statement released by the u.n. hcr that really zeroed in, in particular, with what the

israeli military is doing in northern gaza, currently concentrated on the jabalia refugee camp. also issuing evacuation orders for the entire northern section of the strip. in this statement, u.n. hcr saying the israeli military appears to be cutting off north gaza completely from the rest of the gaza strip and conducting hostilities with disregard for the lives and security of palestinian civilians. the separation of north gaza raises further concerns that israel does not intend to allow civilians to return to their homes, and the repeated calls for all palestinians to leave northern gaza raise grave concerns of large-scale force transfer of the civilian population. now, the israeli military will deny those allegations. they say they're focused right now on the jabalia refugee camp because hamas continues to regroup there. worth noting, this is the fourth time the israel military has gone into that particular refugee camp. what experts looking at the

situation will say is what's apparent here is a clear lack of a political solution for the day after of an israeli military operation. they will say that there's not only a lack of a plan, a political plan for gaza and the palestinians, but also for the situation in lebanon. chris. >> erin mclaughlin, courtney kube, thank you both. coming up, the razor thin races under way across the country in that pitched battle for who is going to control the senate. we'll head to michigan, seeing one of the country's tightest and most high stakes races. you're watching "chris jansing reports" only on msnbc. our right to reproductive health care

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one single senate seat. republicans pretty certain to pick up the democratic seat being vacated by joe manchin now can taste control of the senate. all they have to do is pick up another one of the most competitive races, all currently held by democrats. you can see polls are within the margin of error. in montana, jon tester has been consistently behind. in ohio, sherrod brown is clinging to a slim, single point lead. in michigan, it's a dead heat. tonight, a final michigan debate could be pivotal in winning back a seat they haven't held in years. carlos curbelo is back with me. julie, you've got exclusive interviews with both these

candidates. congresswoman elissa slotkin and former congressman mike rogers. tell me what they told you. >> reporter: well, they told me, chris, that they are both essentially vying for the same group of voters, the moderate independent voters that we keep talking about in these battleground states that could really make the difference on not only the top of the ticket, where much like our nbc news poll nationally shows trump and harris neck and neck and tied here, but also could determine the fate of the down ballot races. that's, of course, including slotkin and rogers. i want you to take a listen to how they align themselves with the top of the tickets, sticking close while also distinguishing themselves, too. watch. >> how has it been for you to have kamala harris the top of the ticket versus president biden? >> yeah, i mean, look, it was a sea change when she fleeted up to the top of the ticket. there was a euphoria there for a lot of democrats. but i think now that we're in the fall, it's the same as it always is in a swing state.

particularly in michigan. >> i think we'll attract a few harris voters. i think auto workers. we're doing well with black males across the state because we go and talk to them about opportunities and future. we offer them an agenda that will be good for their future. same with arab muslims. those are traditional democrat blocks. i think you'll get a few of those harris/rogers voters, and we'll take them. >> reporter: fascinating comments, chris, from both candidates here. they're both -- rogers, i should say, was a former congressman. they have backgrounds in national security areas. the middle east affects communities in deer born, a couple miles from where i am in detroit. we talked about auto workers, the industry is one of the top in the country. michigan, about 19% of its industry comes from those auto workers and those auto plants. rogers had slammed slotkin for

voting for electric vehicle mandates, a rule from the biden administration that would propose emissions standards by 2032. she told me she's open to actually revisiting that, some of the we issues that have perhaps drawn contrast between these candidates. it'll be a very close race to watch, especially as we head into the final debate between the two candidates tonight, where there is a lot on the line, chris. >> thank you so much for that. congressman, punch bowl, let me ask you another big race, ohio. sherrod brown's race against the machine, writing that his strategy of castigating both parties for national problems that have dispositive portion gnatly impacted ohio -- decimation of the state's manufacturing base to the influx of fentanyl from the southern border -- is giving democrats hope he can hang on. is he walking the right line here? is it enough to keep him in the seat? carlos, we can't hear you. i don't know if you're muted?

hello? >> can you hear me now, chris? >> there we go. got ya. >> sorry about that. i was telling you sherrod brown has a long history of successfully carving out his own image in the state of ohio that's separate from both parties. we know trump will win that state. trump's margin is the question, right? if trump wins the state by double digits, can sherrod brown survive? that would be something truly remarkable. if trump wins by seven or eight points, a lot of people do think sherrod brown can survive. this is a big deal for democrats. there's a difference between republicans having a one or two seat majority in the senate where a lot of those centrist republican senators would play a big role, but if some of the races in the midwest, wisconsin, michigan, ohio, start breaking for republicans, now they start getting into the mid 50s, and they can really, you know, have a lot of flexibility to operate and maneuver in the united states senate. >> yeah, tester very much in a

similar situation, right? he's running in a very red state, a place he's won before. and he's outperforming kamala harris in the polls, but it's a tough, upward battle. i want to ask you about a couple of seats democrats say they're targeting that are held by republicans. one of them in your state, rick scott in florida. then you have ted cruz in texas. are either of those, do you think, realrealistic pickup opportunities for democrats? >> look, i think texas is probably a more realistic opportunity for democrats. chris, when you look at the voter registration numbers in florida, now republicans have an over 1 million voter advantage in the state. that is very difficult to overcome. we know donald trump is going to win the state. in texas, sure, it's a red state, but republicans have had a tougher time there. ted cruz had a tough re-election fight there last time, six years ago. i wouldn't bet on democrats winning either of those two

states, but if anyone is in trouble, it's more likely that it's ted cruz in texas and not rick scott in florida. >> carlos curbelo, thank you. still to come, officials racing against the clock to turn the lights back on in hurricane-battered florida. and now, there's another massive problem plaguing residents. we'll explain, live from st. petersburg, after this. ultra foamy melts it on contact. magic. new ultra foamy magic eraser. when my doctor gave me breztri for my copd, things changed for me. breztri gave me better breathing, symptom improvement, and reduced flare-ups. breztri won't replace a rescue inhaler for sudden breathing problems. it is not for asthma. tell your doctor if you have a heart condition or high blood pressure before taking it. don't take breztri more than prescribed. breztri may increase your risk of thrush, pneumonia, and osteoporosis. call your doctor if worsened breathing, chest pain, mouth or tongue swelling, problems urinating, vision changes, or eye pain occur. ask your doctor about breztri.

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at this hour, 400,000 customers still don't have power in florida. the death toll from hurricane milton is up to 24 people, and there's a new danger in the aftermath of the storm. nbc's guad venegas is live in st. petersburg. what's going on there? >> reporter: chris, i'm in front of one of the communities that still has some of this flooding that we've seen. flooding from the runoff that eventually made its way to the rivers. this is water that has been going towards the gulf that flooded a lot of these communities. we now have reports of residents that are finding alligators and snakes in these areas. authorities are asking people not to walk through flooded areas like these, especially because with alligators, it's very hard to see them. they camouflage very well. people that walk through the water might not see one when they have an alligator in front of them. for people that might run into these animals, the advice is to call the florida fish and wildlife agency. they have teams standing by that

can come and help with that. that, of course, is for the areas that are a little more inland, that are suffering from some of this flooding. we also have a lot of people coming back to their homes in areas that had storm surge damage, and there's going to be a long cleanup process there. others that are also cleaning up from damage that might have been caused from the tornadoes, the wind, and also the heavy rain. we do expect a lot of that degree that has been piling up on people's properties to begin getting cleaned up this week. then there's the issue with power. as of this morning, the last update indicated that the number was at about 400,000 clients without power, which is an improved number. just two days ago, it was more than a million customers without power. so things are getting better on that end. then there's also the issue with gasoline. a lot of the gas stations were running out of gasoline. others had no power, which means then they can't operate the pumps. over the weekend, the state did open some distribution centers

where people were getting 10 gallons of gasoline. with the power coming back, a lot of these gas stations in the affected areas will be able to operate those pumps. so that's what the recovery looks like right now. it's going to take time, weeks for things to go back to normal here in the florida area that was slammed by two hurricanes in just two weeks, chris. >> yeah. can we go back to the snakes and the alligators? was that an alligator walking through somebody's home gym? >> reporter: yes. so there's been reports of people finding the alligators on their porch, outside their house, their backyard, and then there's that video, a video that went viral of someone that found the alligator inside. now, here's what we've heard from the experts. most of those alligators that were found inside of people's homes were found right after the storm when the water went inside of those properties. most of the flooded areas now are on street roads like the one you can see behind me. the expectation is that these

animals would be in the water at this point. the advice is for people not to walk through any areas that are flooded. i also spent some time with one of the rescue teams north of us in pascal county. they told me they've seen a lot of snakes also in these flooded areas. we should also keep in mind, chris, that this is gator country. florida is home to more than a million alligators. these are communities that have a lot of rivers and lakes that are connected to the wildlife reserve areas. that's why when we had all of this flooding, a lot of these animals floated into neighborhoods, not knowing that they had been moved from the wildlife areas where they were at. >> i'm speechless. a million, as long as they don't come into my house. that's what i'll say. guad venegas, thank you. i know it'll be a long road for those folks on so many levels, so we appreciate you being there to tell their stories. also, a new nbc news exclusive. we are reporting now details on the growing legal battles for

rapper sean "diddy" combs. nbc has obtained new civil lawsuits against combs filed in the southern district of new york on behalf of three males and two females, including allegations of rape. nbc's chloe melas broke this story for us. what else can you tell us about the civil suits? >> they were filed in the southern district of new york. the complaints spanned from 1995 to as recently as 2021. they include allegations of sexual assault and rape. the individuals are remaining anonymous out of fear, according to the suits. one is an allegation of sexual assault and rape against a woman in a manhattan hotel room when she was a 19-year-old college student. we've reached out from combs' team for comment and haven't heard back. these are the first suits filed by tony busby, who held the conference last month saying he

was representing dozens of accusers. he said the reason he's filed these suits -- i spoke with him earlier -- and he said these were the ones he was able to corroborate first. he is planning to name other high-profile defendants. combs and his businesses as well as a hotel and another location where an incident allegedly took place the defendants. this is less than a week after a new york judge has now said that combs will separately face his criminal trial on may 5th. you know, the only civil suit he has settled so far is the one with his ex-girlfriend, cassie ventura, who filed that explosive suit alleging sex trafficking, which sort of kicked all of this off last year. she is central to the criminal allegations against him. remember, those federal prosecutors, they say that they do plan for a potential superseding indictment with more charges. >> chloe melas, thank you for that.

and there's a manhunt. it's in full swing right now in michigan after a deadly home invasion where the suspect dressed up as utility workers. you can see the footage. two men dressed in yellow vests, ringing the doorbell of a home north of detroit. they lied about a potential gas leak. police say those two men killed the 72-year-old man who lived there and tied up his wife, who was able to somehow get to a phone and call 911. one suspect is in custody, arrested on murder charges. coming up, the battle for white women voters. the top issue driving how they'll cast their ballot this year. and one very critical bellwether state. next hour, how both campaigns are doubling down on battleground georgia, with early, in-person voting kicking off tomorrow. you're watching "chris jansing reports" only on msnbc. visit indeed.com/hire

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republican. >> i felt embarrassed to call myself a republican after the passage of the dobbs decision. >> reporter: in 2020, wheeling went for trumps, because she believed her kids' jobs relied. >> i'm going to vote for kamala harris. four years ago, i might have said no. now do i think she's more moderate, and i absolutely cannot vote for trump. >> reporter: voters like theresa in areas like this one, erie, pennsylvania, could decide the electionment white women are the largest voting bloc in the country. and since 2000, the gop presidential ticket has won a majority of them. in 2016, the group, including deb loney and lisa nebis helped trump win the presidency. >> his message about wanting to break away from the status quo of politicking was appealing. >> i voted for trump. it was a struggle for me, and i ended up voting for trump, and i

regret it. >> reporter: trump grew support with white women in 2020. >> i always thought women liked me. >> reporter: nbc news data shows white women shifting left with party preference in recent years to a growing gap after 2016. do you see that leftward shift? >> we do see it. >> reporter: jackie payne runs galvanizing action. a margin of error race throughout but new polls show harris has a slight edge, 46 to 44%. >> it is a game of inches, like, it is so, so close. >> reporter: the economy is a top issue for these voters. nearly half of them believe republicans are better on the issue than democrats. preserving democracy, fixing immigration, and strengthening abortion rights are also key. >> primary importance is women's rights. >> reporter: what's important to me is our democracy right now.

>> the whole political discourse, i feel like is getting negative. >> reporter: a reckoning that could decide the election, even if it's just for now. >> is this a permanent realignment for you? >> maybe with my registration, not with the voting. the voting is based on the person, the character, the issue. >> reporter: chris, from the moment that vice president kamala harris became the democratic nominee, i had democratic operatives telling me, we know we have work to do with white women. certainly that's why we see harris in places like erie, pennsylvania, from the ground to a little bit of data here, i'll take you back to 2020, when of course president biden won among all women in the state of pennsylvania, but the story gets a little bit deeper when you see that trump actually did better with white women than biden did, again, in 2020, and in pennsylvania. but then you bring that into our new polling that we saw just out over the weekend, and you compare it with what we saw in september of 2024. among white women in that poll, trump was, of course, trailing harris, but harris had a nice

healthy plus 6 margin among these voters. then you see what a month can do. a month can be an eternity in politics. it can mean big changes on polls like this, when, again, you see white women, just over the course of a few weeks shift into the trump column where there he has a plus 2 majority with them. that kind of puts him in line with where he was in the past, especially when you look at where he was in 2016, 52% among white women. then he gains a few points in 2020, up to 55%, and then of course open question about what ends up happening in 2024, but when you see him at 50% in this poll now that we just released over the weekend, it's trump starting to pull in line with where he was in past election cycles, and it's where you get this tense and confusing dichotomy with white women voters who can swing elections in key states like pennsylvania, but might feel like their ideology is more in line with democrats, at least according to our polling averages.

you put names on paper, and votes to ballots, you end up seeing them potentially come home to trump. either way, this is something we watch closely with two candidates, trump, of course who has been on the ballot before. harris new to voters, but also an entirely new issue set with abortion the potential x factor here. >> i know we say this a race of inches, boy is it. still ahead, major new developments in the space race, could life exist on one of jupiter's icy ocean moves. the brand new mission just launched from earth to find out. rough, or tired? with miebo, eyes can feel ♪ miebo ohh yeah ♪ miebo is the only prescription dry eye drop that forms a protective layer for the number one cause of dry eye: too much tear evaporation. for relief that's ♪ miebo ohh yeah ♪

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