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between himself and his vp. joe biden says kamala harris will cut her own path as president, but has she done enough to explain to voters what that would look like exactly? and the georgia ruling that will shut down the requirement to hand count millions of ballots. a lot to get to, but we start with former president trump leaning hard into his tough guy image, addressing an all-female audience in georgia and refusing to back down even after the host challenged him for calling democrats like adam schiff the enemy within. >> mr. president, kamala harris has said you sounded unhinged and unchecked power is in our future. >> i thought it was a nice presentation. i wasn't unhinged. it is the enemy from within and they're very dangerous. they're markist and communists and fascists.

we have china, russia, all these countries. if you have a smart president, they can all be handled. the more difficult, you know, the pelosis, these people, they're so sick. and they're so evil. >> the question, whether rhetoric like that can help win over female voters and close the gender gap. what "the wall street journal" says has become the defining future of this race. the divide seen clearly in a new poll. harris has a 15-point advantage among women while trump's lead among men is six. i want to bring in vaughn hillyard in that swing state of arizona. ashley parker is "the washington post" senior national political correspondent. here in studio, elise jordan , former aide to the bush white house. good to have you here. vaughn, i know you're in touch with folks from the campaign all the time. how concerned is team trump about the gender gap? >> reporter: right, chris. let's first set this up that many of donald trump's closest

allies and political strategists have believed his pathway to victory was incumbent on the turnout of men and winning over a greater share of the men electorate. not just white men, but black men and latino men. national polling is bearing that out. you have seen his media strategy going and trying to appeal to the old school version of masculinity on bro podcasts and talking to folks in which he tries to encapsulate this idea of what strength means in the traditional view of strength. and that is where you have seen him though among women particularly now with kamala harris atop the ticket, lose support in a way that could very well cost him come three weeks from now and that is where you see him doing that all-women town hall. donald trump, he has been explicit saying that a lot of the republican losses in 2022 at the senate and gubernatorial level, he placed blame on those

candidates positions on abortion. that's where you have seen him try to moderate his view on abortion or the way in which he believes that there should be the exceptions for rape, incest for women, but you have also seen him there talk about ivf and we should note in that town hall when one of the women in that audience asked him about his support for ivf care, he said that he was unfamiliar with ivf until earlier this year when the alabama supreme court came down with its ruling and that's when he got a phone call from a republican senator from alabama who he asked to explain to him what ivf was. he said after two minutes of that conversation, he knew he was in support of it. so on one hand, donald trump is trying to appeal to a broader sub sect of women but in realtime, acknowledging that he has a lack of understanding about a very serious form of care that a great many women across the united states have used in their way of trying to

build and extend their own families. >> thank you for that. and so i want to play a part of what the former president said about ivf and then really just a short time ago, kamala harris' response. >> and ivf, you had mentioned before -- >> let's skip this question because i believe this is -- >> oh, i want to talk about ivf. i'm the father of it. i'm the father of ivf. and i said explain ivf very quickly. and within about two minutes, i understood it. i said, no, no, we're totally in favor of ivf. i came out with a statement within an hour, a really powerful statement with some experts, really powerful. >> i found it to be quite bizarre. called himself the father of ivf and if what he meant was taking responsibility, well, then, yeah, he should take responsibility for the fact that one in three women in america lives in a trump abortion ban state. what he should take responsibility for is that

couples who are praying and hoping and working towards growing a family have been so disappointed and harmed by the fact that ivf treatments have now been put at risk. >> ashley, it does feel like part of a pattern from donald trump. first of all, katie brit helps him to understand a very complex issue. medically, socially, in two minutes, then he's an expert on it. and now he is the father of ivf. that is the kind of language that has been consistent throughout his career. >> right. with donald trump, everything quote unquote good is superlative. he's not just in support of ivf, he is the father of ivf. he is you know, an expert on it. he is the strongest supporter. it's also part of the pattern of him really grappling with his stance on reproductive rights in

a post roe world which of course is the result of the three supreme court justices who he picked, in part very specifically, because his base wanted them because they would overturn roe if that case came before them. he really has sort of taken every side of this issue. he continues to brag and take credit for the dobbs decision. yet at the same time, he is very reluctant to take credit and in fact, distances himself from many of the actual ramifications of the decision which you were seeing play out in states and even in his own home state of florida, where there is an abortion initiative on the ballot. he kind of went in a 24-hour period, he went back and forth and kind of took both sides of it because on the one hand, he wanted to be more moderate then of course he got backlash from his base and having covered donald trump since 2015, one thing i have learned is that when he's sort of in that push and pull between moving to the

center and appeasing his base, even though his base never, his base has never left him, when there's an outcry from his base, even though he has the ability to bring them along to a more moderate, centrist position, he almost always retreats to what that far base wants. >> so let's talk about abortion. i want to play exactly what he had to say just a little while ago. >> why is the government involved in womens' basic rights? >> i think that's great and i'm glad you asked it. for 52 years, this issue has torn our county apart. it's what everybody has wanted it for years and now it's working its way out in the states. honestly, some of them are going much more liberal like in ohio, i would have thought it would have been different. some are not. you end up with the vote of the people. they're too tough.

too tough. and those are going to be redone because already there's a movement in those states. i know exactly what you're talking about, to redo it. >> i found the exchange to be stunning, chris. the question from the female voter, this is in cummings, georgia. forsythe county. that was the question women had this election season. why is the government involved in women's healthcare. >> cummings, georgia, what does that tell you that that was the question in that particular location? >> it shows just how deep this cuts and how trump might have a problem with white women, white suburban women. he definitely has a problem with them. and how many of those voters can harris peel off to counterbalance the black men who might not be turning out for her or the hispanic voters she's losing. that's a big question. >> you think she can gain in this gender gap, more women. >> i think definitely. i think this is the most gender

segregated election we've ever seen. >> ashley, you recently wrote about how this alpha male mentality is engrained in the trump campaign and beyond what he says and he does talk tough, right? at his rally this week, i'm just giving you a couple of examples. he played a james brown song, it's a man's man's world. some people criticized it being played during the rnc where also hulk hogan we remember, ripped off his shirt. but talk about how that mentality permeates and drives the campaign. >> the tone and mentality is set from the top so trump is setting this. it's not just his policy positions and some of his public statements but it's how his, who he surrounds himself with. not all, but majority of sort of the staff on that campaign are men. they're men who use very crude

language and as we reported in our piece, can be disrespectful. even of their female sue per superiors and colleagues. the press statements in the trump operation, even when you're talking to them about a story about maybe sensitivity on abortion rights and how he's dealing with that or how he's going to try to close the gender gap with women, the statements are often sort of brash, aggressive, trolly. kind of ripped from you know, the right wing kind of scrollist fear combative language. that's just who the former president is. and what his campaign is. one of the stories i was thinking of doing, how are they going to use this convention to try to close the gender gap with women, to try to appeal to women? especially in that moment that felt very somber and emotional

after he was shot in butler, pennsylvania. i quickly realized from the public presentation was they weren't. the convention was not geared toward bringing on board reticent women. it was hulk hogan ripping his shirt off on stage as i remember in the '90s. it was dan white from ultimate fighting. it was just a very different audience and message of that they were targeting in a convention which is so carefully scripted. that's a deliberate decision. >> and harris sees an opening. she argues trump's vision of version of what strength s insulting, threatening people. saying he may or may not have had conversations with putin, but certainly foreign leaders wouldn't do against the united states or against other allies what they had done with joe biden as president. she said this exactly the opposite. take a listen. >> in fact, the man is really quite weak. he's weak. it's a sign of weakness that you

want to please dictators and seek their flattery and favor. it's a sign of weakness. that you would demean america's military and service members. it's a sign of weakness that you don't have the courage to stand up for the constitution of the united states and the principles upon which it stands. >> one of the things that strikes me about this, when i was on the campaign trail in 2016 with a succession of republican candidates who dropped out, they didn't know how to respond to donald trump. they didn't know how to respond to his statements. it was something so new and so they thought crazy, really, to be honest with you. it was outside of the parameters of typical political discourse.

has she found the answers? >> i think so. they don't like the ran cory, the chaos, the nasty name calling. by highlighting that, by emphasizing the chaos that's going to come back, that is an extremely effective attack. >> vaughn, ashley, thank you. elise, you're going to stay with me. and in 90 seconds, kamala harris responds to criticism that she's too scripted at a time when things are absolutely neck and neck with donald trump. >> this is a margin of error race. it's tight. i'm going to win. i'm going to win. but it's tight. win but it's thtig at humana, we believe your healthcare should evolve with you, and part of that evolution means choosing the right medicare plan for you. humana can help. with original medicare you're covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits, but you'll have to pay a deductible for each. a medicare supplement plan pays for some or all of your

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in an election dominated by the question of who can be the change candidate, president biden has a message. kamala harris will be her own person and bring a fresh perspective. >> every president has to cut their own path. that's what i did. i was loyal to barack obama, but i cut my own path as president. that's what kamala's going to do. she's been loyal so far, but she's going to cut her own path. >> those comments come as harris has been facing questions about what she stands for. >> a lot of your press gets criticized, folks say you come off very scripted. >> that would be called discipline. some people say that if until

swub has heard the same thing at least three times, it just doesn't stay with you so repetition is important. for that reason, yes. at my rallies, i say the same thing when i go to detroit as i do in philly, as i do wherever i am, to make sure that people hear and receive what i think are some of the most critical issues that are at stake in this election. >> let's bring in democratic strategist, juanita toliver. elise is back. we actually streamed that on msnbc yesterday afternoon and i totally got sucked into the conversation. i usually try to go home and separate. i thought about a conversation i had in 2000 with your old boss. maybe not your old boss but the guy running to campaign against your old boss. karl rove is sitting in the stands and i say if you guys

win, what's the difference? repetition. we know what our message is and we say it over and over again. so when i heard her say that yesterday, i wonder what your reaction was when you heard kamala harris say that? >> the hallmark of a discipline candidate and it's something that every staffer dreams of. a candidate that stays on message. in her case, what she's getting flak for isn't necessarily the discipline and message repetition. it's that voters in the middle who are still undecided, 19 days before the election and it all baffles us, they are wanting more specifics. and what are those specifics that are going to drive them forward. >> do you agree with that? and i wonder that now that biden has made a point to say that vps before her including me, will chart her own path? does that give her some room? >> first on the discipline part of it, i appreciated that she interjected when she was being asked that question. it's about the repetition which

honestly should be refreshing for voters when they hear chaotic blubberings and mess from her opponent every single day. now when it comes to joe biden saying that vice president will cut her own path, i fully agree with that. and the reality is i hope that she takes license to this and is less hesitant when confronted with that question about how different she'll operate from joe biden. and the reality is she has gone further than joe biden on a range of issues. we know, for example, on abortion, she's repeatedly said the word abortion where joe biden doesn't. she has been a staunch advocate for reproductive rights for years. i do hope that yes, she should be proud of some of these successful policies that have emerged, especially on the economy, on cutting prescription drug prices and gun violence prevention. but she should also frame every policy idea and her vision for the future as how she will

extend that and drive it further. >> at a time when she's trying and i think the polls show this or certainly people we talk to talk about this that they're still trying to figure out who she was. she was asked about the labels she's been given by trump and listen to another part of her interview from yesterday. >> why do you allow them to call you the border czar? >> i'm not giving him permission for that. >> you're right. but you don't push back on it. that wasn't your role. >> fact checkers have made that clear. look, if i respond to every name he called me, i wouldn't be focused on the things that actually help the american people and that's my focus. >> so how do you decide, if you're kamala harris, what's worth responding to and what isn't? >> this is the same opponent who has said that she is not a black woman. like you don't give him oxygen and that is the way that you upset him most. so what i appreciate again with

that interjection in the middle of the question, she doesn't grant him permission because he's going to say whatever he wants to say. she has the responsibility to voters to convey her vision for the future of this country, not respond to every ridiculous thing that trump says. honestly, i would love it if the campaign repeatedly posted that image of her from the debate where she's looking at him, giving him side eye, confused about what he's saying because it makes absolutely no sense every single time. that is a sufficient response enough, honestly. >> donald trump hasn't exactly offered a lot of specifics on his proposals and some of the specifics that he has are hard to follow. take a listen to this exchange. this is about tariffs, something he's gotten into a lot over the last week or so at the economic club of chicago yesterday. >> to me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff. and it's my favorite word. >> tariffs also have another

side. isn't that something you have to acknowledge? >> no. >> you could be plunge america into the biggest trade war since -- you're going to stop, there are tariffs already. >> there are no tariffs. all you have to do is build your plant in the united states and you don't have any tariffs. it must be hard for you to spend 25 years talking about tariffs as being negative then have somebody explain to you that you're totally wrong. >> you worked in the state department. i'm wondering what you make of that. >> let's just leave the whole policy debate aside. donald trump changed the debate on free trade completely within the american political ecosystem. and he is going back to his bag of old tricks. he's reviving it. even though economists have said it would be devastating and essentially another tax on more americans. but that is why donald trump, he's just going to do greatest hits, immigration, going back to free trade. repetition when he doesn't know what he's talking about. >> elise jordan, thank you.

juanita, great to see you both. still ahead, a farewell to one of the last remaining links to camelot. we're standing by for president biden's tribute to ethel kennedy. plus, she urged the crowd to go something at the dnc, so why hasn't michelle obama been on the campaign trail? neither of those are michelle obama, but you know what she looks like. we'll be right back. looks like we'll be right back. al treatment isn't offered? i'll get a second opinion. take charge of your treatment. if you can't lay your hand flat, visit findahandspecialist.com to get started. (vo) at verizon every phone can be the new iphone 16 pro with apple intelligence. findahandspecialist.com wow phones are going to be flying to verizon. at verizon new and existing customers can get iphone 16 pro, and a new ipad all on us. only on verizon.

for the second time in 24 hours, a georgia judge has issued a ruling in a state joe biden won. this time, the judge struck down a state election board requirement that all ballots be counted by hand warning that it would cause administrative chaos and that it was too much too late. dasha burns is reporting from a polling site where early voting is underway. in a practical sense, what does this ruling mean? >> reporter: so practically, chris, this means that there is less likelihood that there would be additional delays that would be caused by having to hand count the ballots. that does take away one more tool from those who might want to sew chaos, sew doubt in the process as we saw in 2020. both from the standpoint of how long it took for those ballots to get counted because of the rules changes around covid and

what the former president and his allies were able to do in exploiting that time period and getting folks to question the process here, now, in terms of early voting, chris, the enthusiasm we're seeing here is extraordinary. part of the reason is that people want to make sure they get those ballots cast early. that they are as helpful in the process as they can so their votes can count. also because they feel they really understand what's at stake here. here's some of what we're hearing. why was it important for you to do it early? georgia's early voting numbers are absolutely record breaking. why was it important for you to come early? >> i just felt it was something that i needed to do, that i wanted to do, okay. >> reporter: as soon as you could. >> yes, as soon as i could. >> reporter: why was it important for you to vote early? >> because i didn't want to get caught in that last minute rush and also because i want to make sure my vote got counted. >> reporter: now, chris, the majority of people i've been talking to here are voting for

vice president harris. perhaps not surprising given that historically and recent polling indicates that democrats are more likely to use the option of early voting and mail-in voting and especially because former president trump has spent years vilifying that part of the process saying that election day voting is the only valid way to vote, which is not true. his voters are still stuck on that message. not as likely and much more skeptical of voting early and by mail-in ballot, chris. >> thank you. meanwhile in georgia, former president carter has fulfilled his wish to cast his vote in this year's presidential race. carter, who just turned 100 two weeks ago, submitted an absentee ballot that was deposited in a drop box near his home. his grandson carter said he couldn't wait to vote for kamala harris. and new reporting on why

michelle obama has been largely absent from the campaign trail. she's the democratic superstar who gave this rousing speech at the dnc. >> it's up to us to remember what kamala's mother told her. don't just sit around and complain. do something! if we start feeling tired, if we start feeling that dread season creeping back in, we've got to pick ourselves back up, throw water on our face and what? >> do something! >> we only have two and a half months, y'all. to get this done. >> nbc's monica alba is live in washington crossing, pennsylvania. what's the latest with michelle obama, monica? >> reporter: well, she's the most popular democratic surrogate that is available to the kamala harris campaign and they know that and that's something that has been true for several cycles, but we are reporting today that so far, nothing has been finalized in terms of where she may appear on

the trail for the harris walz ticket. though certainly given that speech, given what she has talked about on social media and her endorsement, she's doing everything she can behind the scenes to boost voter turnout and ensure her candidacy is of course being supported. but unlike her husband, former president obama or former president bill clinton who have been out on the trail in the last couple of days and will continue to effectively hit every battleground state ahead of election day, she is viewing her role a little bit differently and part of the idea and part of the conversation here is that we understand from two people familiar with the situation that she's expressed some fresh concerns over security overall in the wake of the two assassination attempts on former president trump's life. so this is a case where certainly all of the protectees of the secret service who are as important as the obamas,

clintons, trumps, anybody who's served in office, they're all receiving heightened security measures. people tell us she will be campaigning for the vice president in the home stretch. separately, she has launched a nonpartisan initiative called when we all vote. she did that back in 2018 which is meant to mobilize those first time voters and boost turnout. she's going to be headlining a rally for that group on october 29th in atlanta, georgia, just a week before the election and right before the early voting period there as you were just discussing, comes to close. then we'll see where else they deploy her since giving her popularity, she's somebody that a lot of democratic strategists would like to see as part of this all hands on deck effort

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back on donald trump's claims

that he bears in responsibility for the january 6th attack. what does smith say in this filing? >> so, this essentially comes in response to donald trump's filing saying that presidential immunity should keep him from being charged here. they allege in that one filing that the previous filing from the trump campaign that or rather from the trump team, that the indictment that was returned in august, the second indictment, the superseding indictment, doesn't come close to suggesting donald trump was responsible. what jack smith does here is point out the points in the indictment where it does say that that donald trump bears responsibility for what happened on january 6th itself and essentially maps out how they allege donald trump was using the mob as this tool and he summoned the mob first of all, he told them all of these lies during his speech that proceeded the attack then took advantage of that delay and that period. essentially what jack smith is arguing here is that the mob's

delay tactics and the way they went about trying to interfere with the proceedings inside were benefitted by donald trump when he was making all these calls to convince the other republican legislators to stick with the plan to overturn the results of the election and to return him to office despite losing. the reason this is all happening is different obviously from the hillary clinton case back in 2016 when you have these late october sort of surprises and really this is is a direct response to judge chutkan's order that laid out the timeline of events and the judge is responding to what the trump team said in its previous filing. it's a lot different from the other scenario even though it is less than three weeks now before election day that we're seeing these serious allegations here, chris. >> ryan riley, thank you. today, there's growing outcry over disturbing body cam footage from the august arrest of a deaf black man with

cerebral palsy in phoenix. police officers are seen punching and tasing with 34-year-old who was charged with aggravated assault and resisting arrest. police say the incident is under investigation. morgan chesky is following this for us. walk us through this and what's happening now. >> reporter: this was an incident that took place on august 19th that began when someone called 911 from a convenience store and reported a fight. police arrived to identify a man they say was seen as the aggressor in that fight but that man told two officers, chris, that he pointed at an individual in the parking lot and said i was trying to stop that man from stealing a bike. that man is tyron mcalpin and i'd like you to see the body cam. take a look. >> hey, buddy. stop where you're at.

get your hands behind your back! get your hands behind your back! >> reporter: now, this video of course, tough to watch. this is one of those officer's body cams. the other was knocked off in that clear scuffle. what those offers didn't know at the time that he was deaf and suffered from cerebral palsy. that was informed to them from his wife who showed up at that scene and was telling those officers that he was suffering from those conditions. they were unaware. as a result, i want to share with you the response from phoenix police. this is what they have to say regarding this ongoing investigation saying they've launched an internal investigation. it's been assigned to the professional standards bureau. any information on the charges should be directed to the

maricopa county attorney's office who is prosecuting this case and they are now saying the following here. we have a statement from them saying some in our community have voiced their concerns regarding the charges. i have great faith in the attorneys who work at mcao and those who have reviewed this case so far. so as things stand right now, she says she also wants to respect those who have raised concerns going on to conclude that i may reach a different conclusion or i may not, but i believe this case merits additional scrutiny. important to note the phoenix police department has remained tight lipped on the status of the two officers in the body cam footage. we don't know if they've been placed on administrative leave or if they are continuing to patrol, but the attorney for mr. mcalpin says it is unconscionable he be facing felony charges when he was both deaf and suffered from cerebral

palsy and taken to the ground. >> and can you resist arrest if you cannot hear instructions? there are a lot of questions. thank you so much for that report. coming up, inside the tiny nebraska district at the center of the election and why it's so important. steve kornacki will be here to break it all down. and taking back the house. democratic leader jeffries with a behind the scenes look at what democrats plan to do if they win control of the house. you're watching chris jansing reports only on msnbc. watching reports only on msnbc. at humana, we believe your healthcare should evolve with you, and part of that evolution means choosing the right medicare plan for you. humana can help. with original medicare you're covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits, but you'll have to pay a deductible

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right now, president biden and former president obama and clinton are among the dignitaries paying their final respects to ethel kennedy. the devoted widow of robert f kennedy, mother to 11, who died last week at the age of 96. any moment now, president biden is set to deliver the eulogy at a memorial service at washington's cathedral of st. matthew the apostle. alie is in d.c. nancy pelosi is speaking right now at that service. i know we just heard from former president obama. what did he have to say? >> reporter: yeah, chris. as you mentioned, we're hearing from nancy pelosi right now talking about her personal friendship with ethel kennedy over the years and just before she took the stage, we heard from former president obama who as you see in that shot there, is sitting front row alongside

president biden as well as former president clinton. former president obama talked about how she was quote a big dose in a small package. talked about her personality, calling her a quote, spit fire. he also talked about her activism. her continued passion for decades for humanitarian causes, for civil rights even after enduring such hardship in her life. take a listen to his comments. >> her life was marked by more tragedy and heartbreak than most of us could bear. and she would have been forgiven, i think, if at any point, she had stepped away from public life. or allowed bitterness to . after all she and her family have been through, but that is not what ethel did because that's not who she was. we all know the story of how on the train carrying her husband's body from new york to his final

resting place in arlington, she famously walked up and down the aisles trying to cheer up every friend and colleague and reporter on board. and in the years that followed, she kept doing what she and bobby had always intended to do, fight for what was right, supporting causes she believed in. encouraging those who were willing to take on the powers that be. lifting up the stories of those whose voices have been set aside or were forgotten and making sure that her children and grandchildren and great grandchildren felt a responsibility to do the same. she became a passionate advocate for everything from juvenile justice to civil rights to

environmental protection well into her 80s she's still out there marching for something. >> reporter: and chris, when president biden delivers the eulogy at this memorial service for ethel kennedy, we could expect it to mirror much of what he said in his statement reacting to her death after suffering a stroke when he called her, quote, an american icon. as an irish catholic, he looked up to the kennedy family his whole life as proof of america's promise. he also talked about how he looked up to robert f. kennedy as one of his heroes. he talked about how ethel kennedy had a whole lifetime of work after her husband died, and also about his personal connection and friendship with her that he said started when his first wife and infant daughter were killed in a car accident, so a decade's long friendship that he is going to be eulogizing when he speaks in just a couple of minutes at this memorial service, chris. >> allie raffa, thank you for that.

consider this in an already wild election year, there's a mathematical scenario in which the presidential race ends up tied, where both donald trump and kamala harris are just shy of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the white house, and in that case, a single electoral vote in nebraska's second congressional district could tip the balance. democrats hope it's a blue dot in an otherwise red state. nbc's steve kornacki is at the big board for us. what can you tell us about this district? >> yeah, so we're talking about omaha, the suburbs, and we're talking about a district that demographically fit where is democrats have been gaining the most ground, certainly in the trump era before that. suburban areas, metropolitan areas, in terms of the importance of this district, this is our road to 270 map, you can see how nebraska has the stripes there, the blue stripes. that was because in 2020, joe biden did carry this district, and the democrats are favored to carry it this time around and

get that single electoral vote. maine, the other state that does it this way, one electoral vote for each congressional district, two if you win the statewide vote. there's a district in maine that went for trump, the district in nebraska that went for biden. in terms of how you could get to the 269-269 tie, we ask every four years, is it possible, it's possible. and it would probably look like this. split the battlegrounds into two tiers, the northern tier, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, all three went for biden in 2020 and the polling for harris has been generally a little bit better in these states than the southern states, so let's say harris, big if here, but let's show you, if harris were to get wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, there you go, that puts her at 270, and trump's polling has been better in georgia, arizona, north carolina, a state he carried in 2020 and '16, and there's nevada. if trump were to get those four states, for the sake of

argument. these are not predictions but just to show you, it takes you to 270, 268, that gets to the singular importance of democrats of the omaha district. we have it blue right now. if ever in this scenario donald trump were to flip the one congressional district, which he did win in 2016, then lost in 2020, there you go, there's your 269-269 tie. what happens then? the election is thrown to the house of representatives. the rule is not every congressman gets a vote, but each state in the house would get one vote. so whether your delegation has 40 plus members like california or one like north dakota, one vote each, and republicans are certainly expected to have more delegations, no matter which party controls the house itself, that's the importance for democrats. again, we showed you it's kind of assumed to be blue right now. here is some polling from the "new york times" and sienna just a few days ago, and you can see

here, kamala harris, 51. trump, 42. and we mentioned at the top, demographically, this is where the democrats have been gaining ground, the republicans have been losing it in the suburbs, college educated areas. it's a big reason it flipped in 2020, that momentum for democrats. the polling certainly indicating democrats haven't lost ground since then, have perhaps gained ground in this district. they're favored here. if they were to lose it, there you go, chris, that's how it could end up in that tie. >> it's the but that's keeping people up at night. thank you, steve kornacki, for that fantastic, and somewhat disturbing explanation. coming up, $220 million from three people in three months, what we're now learning about how pouring very big bucks into the trump campaign. and the challenges vice president harris is facing in battleground arizona. senator chris coons who's campaigning for harris there will join us ahead.

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