good day. i'm chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york city. it's like finding needles in a political haystack. the massive push underway to dig through an unprecedented amount of voter information to receive the relative handful of undecideds who could swing this election. what it means for the candidates' strategies in the closing days of this campaign. and the former president leaning into lewd stories and nasty insults, making headlines for profanity, not policy, with just 15 days to go. could it drive away voters he needs to put him over the top? or will it energize his base? and the investigation looking for the cause of a horrific accident in houston. four people killed, including a child, when their helicopter slammed into a radio tower and

exploded while on a tour. a lot to get to, but we start with the trump and harris campaign, sifting through mountains of data, as they go town by town, person by person, to reach the excruciatingly small slice of undecided voters who will decide this election. for donald trump today, that means multiple stops in battleground north carolina. for kamala harris, hitting the small town suburbs, teaming with liz cheney to visit countless key counties in pennsylvania, michigan, and wisconsin. the blue wall of states that biden so critically carried in 2020. here's what harris said about her opponent, just a short time ago at an event outside of philadelphia. >> in many, many ways, donald trump is an unserious man. but the consequences of him being president of the united states are brutally serious. there are things that he says

that will be the subject of skits and laughter and jokes, but words have meaning, coming from someone who aspires to stand behind the seal of the president of the united states. >> the stakes, once again, affirmed by a poll just out this morning from "the washington post." harris and trump are neck and neck in every single one of the seven battleground states, with no lead outside the margin of error. and while new fund-raising numbers show harris far out-raised donald trump in september, $221 million to his $63 million, it is an open question of how much that will ultimately matter. as "the new york times" puts it, quote, the election could now ride on undecided americans who have unplugged almost entirely from political news, making them tricky to find, even for billion-dollar campaigns. i want to bring nbc's yamiche alcindor, who is in chester county, pennsylvania, where the vice president was earlier today. matthew dowd was chief strategist for the bush/cheney

campaign in 2004, and was an msnbc senior political analyst. megan hayes is former special assistant to president biden and director of message planning. she was deputy communications director for president biden's 2020 campaign. great to have all of you here. so, look, you've got all of this money, all of this information you've collected on all of these voters. how do campaigns combine all of that and put them to work in these final days? >> well, they have to decide, first, they have a strategic decision that identifying a swing voter or an undecided voter, at some point, becomes a fool's errand. and i think at this point, it is a fool's errand. >> really? >> yes. i think the vast majority of resources, 95% of resources, in the campaign, my guess is, it was in the bush campaign if 2004, for the next 14 days, or 15 days, will be spent on motivating voters they know will vote for the vice president, at this point. i think an undecided voter, if

somebody says they're an undecided voter today and we saw in this 2000 and 2004. they're either not going to vote, or they've already decided they're just not telling you. so i think it's a waste of money and resources, at this point, to go after undecided voters. the better spend is on motivating voters that she knows that are already with her. >> so megan, in that times report, the political director of the trump campaign talked about the undecided and said, these people are not super political, and so we're doing non-super political media. and i want to play what donald trump said in pennsylvania about the late golfer, arnold palmer. >> arnold palmer was all man -- and i say that in all due respect to women, and i love women. but this guy, this guy -- this is a guy that was all man. this man was strong and tough. and i refuse to say it, but when he took showers with the other

pros, they came out of there, they said, oh, my god, that's unbelievable. >> no matter how many times you hear that, it still is a little bit unbelievable itself. but having said that, megan, and i'm not going to suggest that that is part of the campaign strategy, arguably, there may be some people on his campaign who wish he would not say things like that. having said that, i wonder if that is the kind of thing that breaks through. that might appeal to people who have been voting for donald trump or voted for donald trump back in 2016, because he is not, to say the least, your typical politician. >> yeah, if you look behind him, you see all the men in the back, just totally laughing. i think that that's who he's appealing to, right? he's trying to appeal to his base, to men, to things on -- to social media and people were getting their news solely on

social media. so i do think it's part of a campaign strategy. i think he likes the sort of obnoxious conversation that's shocking to people, that's not in the norm of what you think are politicians when they're out on the campaign trail this late. and this is trying to get his base out, because this will be an election about his base turning out. when the vice president is trying to build a contrast, not only is she trying to get undecided voters to vote for her, but to give her base a reason to get home. >> there is no doubt, yamiche, that certainly the harris campaign is doing exactly what matthew said, which is, how do we get these folks out there who support us to vote? today is the last day to register where you are in pennsylvania. so what's the strategy on the ground there, to get these voters to the polls, and maybe get some of these undecideds to actually register people who maybe were not so engaged, who were not necessarily planning to

vote. >> well, harris campaign officials tell me that the strategy is that they really want to get out the vote, and be everywhere, at all times. that's why you have the vice president going to, of course, pennsylvania, and then going to michigan, then to wisconsin, to really go and talk to voters face-to-face, directly. she just wrapped up this interview or this really moderated conversation with liz cheney, the vice president did. and what you saw was her taking questions from the audience, talking directly about what she sees as the danger and the threat of a former president trump being elected. it was interesting, because part of what she's doing here is to try to bring people where the message of republicans is really resonating. the idea that you might not agree with all of her policies, but you want to back her, because you're really seeing her as someone who will defend the constitution. i just wrapped up an interview with a voter who rockerably, you don't really get this that often. a remark who told me he was convinced to vote for vice president harris.

an african-american man 42 years old, said he came here because he had never been to a political rally. he watched her, said she answered questions very specifically, and as a result, he will now be voting for vice president harris. he was a registered independent who had been voting democrat in the past, but this year he was thinking about the republicans because of the economy, and he was convinced because of the answers that she gave, he will now voting for her. it's those kind of events that the harris campaign hope will be doing that for all voters across this country. when it comes to, how are they trying to get people to the polls, they're having an operation that is dwarfing the size of the trump campaign. they have all sorts of field officers and staffers, and staffers who work for former president obama, who are specifically focused on pennsylvania, to make sure people have a real plan to vote. so they're really right to make sure that not only people support her, but then have a specific way that they'll be getting to the polls, whether that's early voting, making sure that they have plans with their neighbors and their friends. it's all sort of this holistic, the harris campaign would say

the way that they're trying to get out the vote in the last few days with 15 days to go, chris. >> yamiche alcindor, who found that unicorn, somebody in the closing weeks of the campaign decided who they were going to vote for because of an event, thank you very much for that, yamiche. you know, megan, the harris campaign has very clearly decided that liz cheney is key to reaching at least some of the voters they need. and apparently, president biden, at least, in tandem with her is not, the campaign. white house officials tell nbc there are no plans to campaign with him in these final 15 days. do you think that's smart, especially considering biden's close ties in a state like pennsylvania? >> i think it's a key decision to get your surrogates to spread out and fan out across all the battleground states. the president is traveling to new hampshire tomorrow to talk about the lowering of prescription drug costs and then traveling to arizona. he's hitting strategic media markets -- >> are you suggesting that this

is not a strategic decision for her not to stand with him? >> i don't necessarily think so. you haven't seen her stand with obama either in the last couple of weeks, and i don't think they're planning on campaigning together or with michelle obama. this is the opportunity to hit a lot of media part. she's very unfortunate, unlike president trump, to have a lot of people who are backing her and a lot of surrogates out on the trail for her. and that's an important thing to cover, media markets and to be out there, as everyone knows local media is where a lot of people and undecided voters are getting their news. so it's important to be there. and the democrats showing up for her right now is what's important. i don't necessarily think they need to be standing by. i don't think that's a necessity at this point. >> matthew, i have to ask you about donald trump trolling kamala harris with these baseless claims that she never worked at mcdonald's. he put on an apron and salted the fries and pardon the pun, peppered in the insults. >> it was a big part of her resume, that she worked at

mcdonald's, how hard a job it was, she specifically worked at the french fries, and she talked about the heat, it was so tough. she never worked at mcdonald's. mcdonald's just confirmed that again, by the way. she never worked at mcdonald's. in other words she's lying kamala. >> a harris spokesperson responded by saying, when trump feels desperate, all he knows how to do is lie. he can't understand what it's like to have a summer job because he was handed millions on a silver platter, only to blow it. >> on the other hand, there are people who have said, it makes him seem more approachable. he was kind of funny. what do you think that accomplished if anything? >> i think it makes him look like a clown. first of all, he lies throughout it, so i guess he gave a side order of lies in the course of whatever he was serving up. >> baa dumdum -- >> dad joke. it was a total made-up stuff.

they shut the mcdonald's down and had supporters practice going through the drive-through. it wasn't even a day that mcdonald's was open for business. he was in there in this faux sort of schick that he does. i don't think it was smart of him. here he is, dressed up in his red tie and white shirt in a mcdonald's that was shut down for him on purpose. i actually don't think it's smart. i think it's stupid strategically for him. he should be talking about issues that he has an advantage on, not doing this shtick at mcdonald's. >> megan, i saw you said that mcdonald's was a humanizing moment for trump. it has been trending on twitter. do you think it helps him? >> so i said he threw some salt over his shoulder, because he's superstitious. that was the humanizing moment. i don't actually think that going to a mcdonald's that was closed down was a campaign stunt. i think politicians do local stops all of the time and interact with people who are

there, who are ordering food, if it's an ice cream shop or a deli or something and the employees. i think this is another moment that he is wasting not talking about the issues and not talking about the economy. and i just think that he only did this to jab the vice president and pointing out that she came from a middle class battleground and understands people who are going through struggles in their economic, you know, outlook right now, i think only like humanizes the vice president. so you know, i think that this stunt was successful because it's being played in the media, but it's playing to his base, not to the undecided voters that really matter. >> megan hayes, thank you. always good to see you. matthew, you'll stick around. in 90 seconds, donald trump's stump speech turning profane. but is it enough to distract from the campaign's closing message? osing message? when speed is what you need, bounce back fast with alka seltzer plus. also try the new chewable fizzy chews. no water needed. my mental health was better. but uncontrollable movements called td, tardive dyskinesia,

started disrupting my day. td felt embarrassing. i felt like disconnecting. i asked my doctor about treating my td, and learned about ingrezza. ♪ ingrezza ♪ ingrezza is clinically proven for reducing td. most people saw results in just two weeks. people taking ingrezza can stay on most mental health meds. number-one prescribed ingrezza has simple dosing for td: always one pill, once daily. ingrezza can cause depression, suicidal thoughts, or actions in patients with huntington's disease. pay close attention to and call your doctor if you become depressed, have a sudden changes in mood, behaviors, feelings or have thoughts of suicide. don't take ingrezza if you're allergic to its ingredients. ingrezza may cause serious side effects, including angioedema, potential heart rhythm problems, and abnormal movements. report fevers, stiff muscles, or problems thinking as these may be life threatening. sleepiness is the most common side effect. take control by asking your doctor about ingrezza. ♪ ingrezza ♪

donald trump heads to north carolina today, including a meeting with faith leaders after a weekend of escalating, baseless claims, veering off to new levels of vulgarity and profanity. >> we can't stand you. you're a [ bleep ] vice president. the worst. you're the worst vice president. kamala, you're fired! get the hell out of here, you're fired! get out of here. >> the american people deserve so much better. donald trump should never again stand behind the seal of the president of the united states. he has not earned the right.

he has not earned the right. and that's why he's going to lose. >> so donald trump encouraged his followers to shout profanity, crude remarks he made about a golf legend. so trump is leaving no doubt that he will close his third campaign for president with an even more nastiy and misleading message about his opponent, distancing himself more than more than ever from anything resembling a conventional campaign. it's good to see you here, dasha. 15 days to go. >> 15 days and counting. >> trump is in north carolina after that weekend of unconventional campaigning. and i wonder if that's the strategy, more of the same escalating and what's his plan today? >> i was with him throughout the weekend. today he's in north carolina. he's making three campaign stops there. he started in asheville. and look, north carolina was a

state that was like solidly red for the last several elections. the last democrat to win was obama in 2008. but now it is absolutely in play. he's playing defense there. over the weekend, the focus, and it really has been one of the primary focuses for the trump campaign is pennsylvania. the keystone state could be the linchpin in this whole thing. he crisscrossed the state throughout the weekend. and it's interesting that his closing message, the campaign wants it to be immigration and the economy. but in latrobe county, he spent 12 minutes -- kicking off the rally with a 12-minute monologue about the famous golfer, arnold palmer -- >> who's from latrobe. >> who's from latrobe. so there's certainly a connection there and trump is certainly a big golf fan and he did know arnold palmer. but it did turn a little bizarre when he ended up pivoting to talk about arnold palmer's, shall we say, anatomy, and describing reactions to palmer

in locker room showers. not what his campaign wants him to be focused on, particularly in a state of that importance. and coming off of -- i mean, i don't even know how many days ago it was, but the dj said that i was also witness to. when you talk about unconventional campaigning, this really takes the cake, chris. >> none of us can remember which day is which at this point in the campaign. and also, i should give dasha credit for pointing out that young voters only know arnold palmer as a drink. but thank you for that, dasha. >> now we know more than we ever thought we would know about -- >> or maybe wanted to. >> that's right. >> appreciate you very much. thank you. so we played trump's comments about arnold palmer a little earlier. and speaker mike johnson was asked about them yesterday, so i want to play that part of the conversation. >> is this really the closing message you want voters to hear from donald trump? stories about arnold palmer's

penis? >> well, listen, i think that the headline that i read about the rally in pennsylvania yesterday was the big question, and it's the one that kamala harris has not been able or willing to answer, and that is, are you better off now than you were under the trump administration? >> why is he talking about arnold palmer's penis front of pennsylvania voters? >> don't say it again. we don't have to say it. there are lines in a rally, when president trump is at a rally, sometimes he'll speak for two straight hours. you're questioning his stamina, his mental acuity. joe biden couldn't do that for five minutes. >> "the new york times" writes that one of the truisms of trump world is that being viewed as boring is a sin more deadly than being wrong. so is that how you view the trump strategy right now? >> it's funny, it's funny, chris. he doesn't want to be boring, but he wants to be boorish, right? he wants to not only talk about locker rooms and a famous golfer in one, but also act like he's

in a locker room when he's at a rally, in the way and manner he talks and the language he uses and the indecency in which he shows. it's unbelievable. i would guess if you gave truth serum to any single republican on his campaign, or any single republican in congress, and said, is this a good idea, every one of them, 100% would say, no, bad idea. donald trump can't help himself in the course of this. he's going to do this up until the final minutes of the campaign, because this is who he is. i think he amuses himself when he says this. because part of the reason he thinks -- he thinks he's funny is, i can say whatever i want to say, and people will keep coming to a rally and all of those people will keep showing up and keep applauding him. it's just who he is. it does provide a unique contrast with the vice president, who tries to say we need decency back in the country, we need to come together and unify and treat each other well to donald trump who is doing the exact opposite. >> we've talked for such a long time, matthew, to what extent

things are baked in with donald trump. i was thinking about how yesterday, kamala harris and tim walz were both in churches, quoting scripture. tonight donald trump will be at an event with faith leaders and ben carson organized by clay clark, a guy who's a well-known conspiracy theorist. the harris campaign keeps trying to point out the contrast. that's one of them, right? is that what voters are looking at? i wonder what you think. >> i mean, the problem, as you know, the problem we have in america today is that people are in silos of communication silos, and it's very difficult. it's much more difficult today to reach people than it was when i was doing it in 2004 and in 2000, in the '90s, because you could actually reach broad swaths of people who weren't isolated in their own confirmation bias silos. and that's part of the huge problem in america, which is why i think our democracy is at

risk, not only because of donald trump in my view, but also because people aren't getting out of their silos and are only getting information that confirms their existing biases. and that's especially true among people on the right and in conservative circles, who have websites they go to, news channels they go to, and everything, everything reinforces the lies and the conspiracies that donald trump pushes. and even though the vice president may win and we may feel like -- the people may feel like they can breathe a sigh of relief, that information silo problem is with us, and that's the big one we'll have to deal with. >> thank you so much. matthew dowd, always good having you on the show. coming up, the deadly helicopter crash. it dropped out of the sky and into a houston radio tower. the investigation now into what went horribly wrong, next.

you'll find them in cities, towns and suburbs all across america. millions of americans who have medicare and medicaid, but may be missing benefits they could really use. extra benefits they may be eligible to receive at no extra cost. and if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get extra benefits, too. through a humana

medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. call now to see if you qualify. with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan, you could have doctor, hospital and prescription drug coverage in one convenient plan. plus, most plans include the humana healthy options allowance, to help pay for essentials like eligible groceries, utilities, rent and more. your allowance is conveniently loaded onto a pre-paid card each month. and whatever you don't spend gets carried over to the next month. plus, you could get other important benefits. most plans include dental coverage, with zero-dollar copays for covered preventive services. vision coverage, including eye exams and a yearly allowance for eyewear. even hearing benefits, with routine hearing exams and coverage toward hearing aids. and, you could pay nothing for covered prescriptions, all year long. you'll also get zero-dollar copays for routine vaccines and telehealth visits. and, you'll have access to

humana's multiple large plan networks of doctors, hospitals and pharmacies. best of all, if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be eligible to enroll in a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan right now. so if you have medicare and medicaid, call now to see if there's a plan in your area that could give you extra benefits. a knowledgeable, licensed humana sales agent will explain your coverage options. even help you enroll over the phone. it's that easy. call today and we'll also send this free guide. but now is the time. the annual enrollment period ends december 7th. humana. a more human way to healthcare. san francisco's leadership is failing us. that's why mark farrell is endorsing prop d. because we need to tackle our drug and homelessness crisis just like mark did as our interim mayor. mark farrell endorsing prop d, to bring the changes we need for the city we love.

san francisco is in crisis and we need real experienced leadership. we need mark farrell. our interim mayor who got things done. who showed we can clear tent encampments, fight crime, and address the drug crisis. who will make the tough choices for our city's future. "i'm mark farrell. i'm running for mayor because san francisco deserves better." "i'm ready to deliver that change on day one." mark farrell. a proven leader with the experience we need. san francisco's leadership is failing us. that's why mark farrell is endorsing prop d. because we need to tackle our drug and homelessness crisis

just like mark did as our interim mayor. mark farrell endorsing prop d, to bring the changes we need for the city we love. take a look at this jaw-dropping and devastating video from houston. it shows the fiery aftermath of a helicopter crash that killed four people, including a child. an investigation is now underway into why that chopper collided with a radio tower and we're now hearing the audio from law enforcement at the time. nbc's steven romo is reporting on this. what more can you tell us, steven? >> chris, the more information that comes to light about this, the more tragic it actually is. it happened sunday night. the sun wasn't up, obviously, so the scale of the devastation was not clear at the time, but it has become more clear as the day has gone on, hitting that radio

tower, it's not clear why that happened. but we do know that this happened on houston's east end, which there's a fire department just down the street. they got there within minutes. but still, the fire had already spread more than 200 yards. the debris spread out possibly over four acres. we got to hear some more of that today, along with some of those radio calls. let's listen. >> all units respond to the helicopter crash, engle street and north ennis. >> this is a large scene, at least, i could be talking less or more, four acres. the potential could have been much worse. we're thankful for that. but we want to keep the families and our victims in mind right now. this is a horrible tragedy. >> this is not far from downtown, so there, of course, are several homes in the area. vehicles on the ground were actually damaged from some of this debris. and police are asking anyone who may find debris in their yard to come forward, because this is,

now, of course, under investigation to figure out how it happened. no injuries reported on the ground, but of course, those four people, including a young child, reported dead from this. their names have not yet been released. >> you do realize looking at that crash scene, how much worse it could have been on the ground. thank you so much for that, steven romo. appreciate it. well, today, texas legislators are examining the case of a death row inmate whose execution was delayed at the 11th hour. robert robertson has maintained his innocence in the 2002 death of his daughter in a controversial conviction on shaken baby syndrome. priscilla thompson is reporting from austin. what's happening there today? >> reporter: yeah, so right now, that committee room is completely full, i'm told by my producer, who is inside, and they are waiting for things to get underway here. the big news that we're learning is that robert robertson is no longer expected to testify today. as you recall, last week, his execution was halted, so that he

could appear before this committee in person, to give testimony. but over the weekend, the texas attorney general actually filed a motion with the texas supreme court, asking them to reconsider that temporary restraining order. and also the texas department of criminal justice saying that they are not able to accommodate him appearing in person, because of safety concerns about bringing a death row inmate to the capitol, where there's no holding area, but that they would allow him to appear virtually. robertson's attorneys says because of his autism and because of his unfamiliarity with platforms like zoom, that would allow him to appear virtually, they did not think that that would be in the best interest of their client. so here we are today with this committee hearing moving forward without robertson testifying virtually or in person. but they are expected to hear from witnesses. and i will tell you that the attorney general is arguing that the texas legislature is trying to wield clemency power here, which only the governor holds. but the legislature and the

representatives we've spoken to says this is about their job, which is to review the laws on the book here that could make it so that an innocent man is being sentenced to death. so this is their job to review this case, and make sure that justice is being carried out in the state of texas. and so things really at a standstill here. but i will tell you that once this is all over and his testimony has been resolved in some way, the state can still then go and file for another execution warrant. and they will have to wait about 90 days before setting a new execution date. this could all still go forward at some point next year. right now the legislature is really hoping that this review in the public eye will allow for robertson to get a new trial. chris? >> priscilla thompson, thank you. still ahead, with kamala harris and donald trump in a dead heat, will the polls be more accurate this time around? steve kornacki takes us inside a top polling call center to try to find out. to find out.

why use 10 buckets of water when you can use 1 fire extinguisher. and to fight heartburn, why take 10 antacids throughout the day when you can take 1 prilosec. for easier heartburn relief, one beats ten. prilosec otc. one pill. 24 hours. zero heartburn. ♪♪ with fastsigns, signage that gets you noticed turns hot lots into homes. ♪♪ fastsigns. make your statement.

(vo) time to move? make it easy with opendoor. sell your home in any season, for any reason. [vampire hiss] (vo) start your move at opendoor.com.

members of the long-exonerated group known as the central park five are taking donald trump to court for defamation. the lawsuit stems from this comment that trump made during the presidential debate last month, decades after he took out

full-page ads calling for the men to get the death penalty for the assault of a female jogger. >> they admitted, they said, they pled guilty. and i said, well, if they pled guilty, they badly hurt a person, killed a person, ultimately. and if they pled guilty, then they pled, we're not guilty. >> with me here in studio, former federal prosecutor and msnbc legal analyst, paul butler. always good to have you here. how strong a case do you think these guys have? >> i think they have a good case. everything we just heard the former president say was false. they said they pled guilty throughout their years of imprisonment, the central park exonerated five always maintained their innocence, even when they'd lied and said they were guilty, they could have made parole and gone home. the former president said that the victim was killed. fortunately, she survived. she's still alive. she actually wrote a book about her ordeal. and the president also said that

the mayor of new york supported him at the time. the mayor was ed koch. and not only did koch not support him, but he said that he disagreed with trump made in that ad, that infamous ad nah he took out in the "new york post," where he called to bring back the death penalty. if he had his way, these five young men would not be exonerated today. they would have been executed. >> so what's the argument that you make about that defamation? the kind of harm that you would say it caused? >> 67 million people watched the debate when president, former president trump made these reckless comments about these five young men. they're saying that their reputations have been destroyed or irreparably harmed by the former president. that he was either intentional lying or that he was reckless with the truth. they're also calling -- they're saying that there's a special category called defamation per se. so, typically, when you claim defamation, you have to prove

that you were injured in some way. but if the defamation involves being falsely accused of a crime, you don't have to prove injuries. if the jury decides that that's what you did, your automatically liable. >> in response, here's what trump's campaign spokesman said, quote. this is just another frivolous election interference lawsuit. followed by leftist activists to distract the american people from kamala harris' dangerously liberal agenda and failing campaign. does the fact that they filed this before the election, before election day matter? >> it does in part, because what they say, is this a big a part of a continuing campaign by trump, since they were falsely accused. and even after they were exonerated. they say that trump spent so much time on this case that he knows the facts. so he had to know that that he was saying about these men was not true. that, again, he was reckless with the truth, not the first time, the former president has been accused of that. >> the suit does not ask for a

specific amount of damages. is that typical? what's the strategy there? >> to leave it to the jury, we saw what the jury did in the case with e. jean carroll, awarding her millions of dollars. that's on appeal now, but trump is still liable for that. again, the jury will get a chance, if it goes to trial, to look at these five men, to understand the harm that they allege trump afflicted and to award them responsibly for what they've suffered, if the jury finds for the five. >> paul butler, always good to see you, especially have you here on set. thank you so much. it's one of the big questions this year. are the polls going to get it right? after a series of elections where the polls were off, sometimes, way off. our steve kornacki went to one of the top polling centers in the country to see how they've adapted. >> hello, my name is owen. >> hello, my name is dawn. >> hello, my name is annette, and i'm calling from the quinnipiac university poll.

>> reporter: this is perhaps the second hardest part of modern day polling. >> sorry that we missed you. >> sorry that we missed you. we'll try to get you another time. >> reporter: getting voters to pick up the phone and answered. >> i've had days where i've just dialed and dialed and dialed and got no surveys. >> reporter: and that feeds into the hardest part of polling. >> we're conducting an independent public opinion survey. >> getting it right. >> we really want to represent everyone's views in our polls. >> after a surprise donald trump win in 2016 -- >> the polling missed the 2016 election outcome. >> reporter: and a surprisingly close joe biden win in 2020. >> a lot of folks are waking up and saying, why were these seeming to be so off? >> they do manually dial. >> reporter: quinnipiac university poll's director doug schwarz and others like him have tweaked their members to better predict who will win in november. >> how do you think about that in terms of what you do now? >> some pollsters are thinking it's because they missed the trump voter. and for us, we don't feel like

we missed reaching the trump voter, we got the trump voter. they were in our poll, but they didn't tell us how they would vote. >> this time around, we're better prepared. >> reporter: they're re-phrasing their questions. >> the election for president were being held today. >> doing everything they can to reach those who are hard to reach. >> our motto is we try hard to reach the hard-to-reach people. so we keep dialing. >> reporter: their new methodology, showing results. >> we tested that in 2022. we had one of our most accurate elections ever. >> reporter: experts point to a variety of reasons for past errors. trump voters who may avoid surveys and pollsters trying to predict who will actually turn out to vote. >> polling pre-election is always really hard, as a pollster, i need to try to make my data look like what i think the electorate is going to look like. >> reporter: will the electorate be more republican or democratic? how many first-time voters? >> it's like a 50/50 coin toss to me as to whether or not the polling will be right. >> here's why that's important. here are the poll averages right now in all the battleground

states. if those polls were off the same way they were in 2016 and 2020, donald trump is in great shape. but these poll errors don't always happen in the same direction. if they're off by the same amount, but this time underestimating democrats, this is what those states would look like. >> how much attention have you been paying to the election? >> everybody is asking, are the polls going to actually get it right this year? what do you say to that? >> i think so, at least in terms of the high-quality polls. i think people need to sort of remember, it's an estimate, it's a range. don't expect perfection. >> she dropped me. darn it. >> reporter: as polling perfection is as difficult to reach as some voters. coming up, the major recovery effort now underway in new mexico after deadly flash floods. a live report from one of the hardest hit areas. and did elon musk break the law with his $1 million.

one top election lawyer will join us live in the next hour. l join us live in the next hour. upset stomach iberogast indigestion iberogast bloating iberogast thanks to a unique combination of herbs, iberogast helps relieve six digestive symptoms to help you feel better. six digestive symptoms. the power of nature. iberogast. our right to reproductive health care is being stolen from us. i can't believe this is the world we live in, where we're losing the freedom to control our own bodies. we need your support now more than ever. go online, call, or scan this code, with your $19 monthly gift. and we'll send you this "care. no matter what" t-shirt. it is your right to have safe health care. that's it. go online, call, or scan right now. (man) look at this silly little sailboat... that's it. these men of means with their silver spoons, eating up the financial favors of the 1%. what would become of them when they discover robinhood gold allows others to earn

their very liberal rates on idle cash, unlimited deposit bonuses and handsome retirement matching? they would descend into chaos. merciless chaos. as americans, there's one thing we can all agree on. the promise of our constitution and the hope that liberty and justice is for all people. but here's the truth. attacks on our constitutional rights, yours and mine are greater than they've ever been. the right for all to vote. reproductive rights. the rights of immigrant families. the right to equal justice for black, brown and lgbtq+ folks. the time to act to protect our rights is now. that's why i'm hoping you'll join me today in supporting the american civil liberties union. it's easy to make a difference. just call or go online now and become an aclu guardian of liberty.

all it takes is just $19 a month. only $0.63 a day. your monthly support will make you part of the movement to protect the rights of all people, including the fundamental right to vote. states are passing laws that would suppress the right to vote. we are going backwards. but the aclu can't do this important work without the support of people like you. you can help ensure liberty and justice for all and make sure that every vote is counted. so please call the aclu now or go to my aclu.org and join us. when you use your credit card, you'll receive this special we the people t-shirt and much more. to show you're a part of the movement to protect the rights guaranteed to all of us by the us constitution. we protect everyone's rights, the freedom of religion, the freedom of expression, racial justice, lgbtq rights, the rights of the disabled. we are here for everyone. it is more important

than ever to take a stand. so please join us today. because we the people means all the people, including you. so call now or go online to my aclu.org to become a guardian of liberty.

♪ that colonoscopy for getting screened ♪ ♪ is why i'm delaying ♪ ♪ i heard i had a choice ♪ ♪ i know the name, that's what i'm saying ♪ -cologuard®? -cologuard. cologuard! -screen for colon cancer. -at home, like you want. -you the man! -actually, he's a box. cologuard is a one-of-a-kind way to screen for colon cancer that's effective and non-invasive. it's for people 45+ at average risk, not high risk. false positive and negative results may occur. ask your provider for cologuard. ♪ i did it my way ♪

we are witnessing the deadly impact of the nation's third apocalyptic flooding event in just the last month. this time in new mexico. at least two people died and teams carried out 309 rescues in roswell, after the city was inundated with four months worth of rain in just a few hours, breaking a rain total record dating back to 1901. you can see cars floating with their headlights on, stranded on roads and in parking lots. the county sheriff had to climb on the side of my truck. and there are multiple vehicles came into this, not expecting that much water, and before i know it, i was flipped off into

this. >> nbc's guad venegas is in roswell, new mexico, and i understand the governor of new mexico literally just declared a state of emergency for the county you're in. how bad is it there today? >> reporter: chris, right, and the planned state of emergency will release more resources for this area. so there's extensive damage. the cleanup is going to take days, maybe weeks for some areas. you can see the debris next to me. so i'm on a sidewalk next to one of the rivers that flooded here. look at the amount of debris that pushed this rail, and it's been twisted. there's a car bumper in there, by the way, that looks like was part of a utility pole. trees, and just all sorts of debris. there's cars in the river. if we walk down in that direction, i can see at least two vehicles. there's another car over in front of me and this will show you the power that these currents had. this is just one of the vehicles

that we've seen all around town. i mean, complete destruction in this neighborhood. we have seen neighbors all throughout the morning help each other to clean up some of the stuff inside. just so you can get an idea, the water here came a few feet. they told me it felt like the water was maybe 4 to 5 feet, and a lot of this went into the homes. you can see some of the cleanup happening here, and we've seen cars all across, it's interesting because you look at a car like this, it looks like it was okay. this car was under water. if you move the camera, where you can actually see inside. this is what the car looks like inside. it was covered in mud. there was a parking lot down the street. as of this morning, they had about 30 cars like this. we've seen some of the neighbors trying to move them out of the way, but this is the destruction that was caused by this heavy flooding. they knew there was hard rain coming down. it was too late for them to get out. they tell me, they woke up,

stepped out of their bed, there was water inside the home. some of them were able to go on the second floor. for those, those were the ones that had to get evacuated, neighbors helping each other. 300 rescues with the state police and the national guard, helping to conduct rescues, of those, they say 38 had to be taken to hospitals. that's what it was like over the weekend. now that the water has receded, this is where a lot of the residents are coming back to as the clean up begins here in roswell, chris. >> i don't know if you've had a chance to see some of the folks doing the cleanup, after the hurricane, how much mud was in people's homes. you showed it to us in the car. is that what you're seeing in houses nearby? >> that is exactly what we're seeing in houses, inches of mud inside their home. in fact, we went inside one of the homes around the corner. they had been cleaning all throughout the morning, and they still had someone. so basically there's mud

everywhere. i'm stepping in mud right now. this mud wasn't here before. you know, you got it on the sidewalks, on roads, inside people's homes. yes, a lot of mud as the water has receded, chris. >> guad venegas, 1901, the worst flooding since then. thank you so much. or at least the most rain they have gotten since then. let's turn to cuba now, where millions of people still don't have power after cuba's entire electric grid collapsed. it put 10 million people into darkness. technicians worked to repair it ahead of hurricane oscar's land fall. the grid failed three more times over the weekend. the storm reached wu cuba yesterday as a category one storm. the cuban government says it expects still power to be restored by tomorrow. to georgia now, where an investigation is underway into what caused a gangway to collapse, killing seven people as they were waiting to board a ferry on sapello island.

40 people were on the gangway when some kind of catastrophic failure happened, sending half of the crowd into the water. one resident described the moment he rushed in to help the youngest person on that gangway, a baby. >> the baby that went underwater, she was going in and out, in and out, so i actually put her on my boat and brought her to the mainland, to the emirates. if i wasn't there to bring her across, she might have didn't make it. she actually made it, and she's safe. >> officials say the aluminum gangway was built three years ago. a resident told our jesse kirsch, he reported concerns about it months ago. early voting in a hurricane zone. the political impact from helene as people start to cast their ballots today. first, you can watch the best parts of our show anytime on you tube, just go to msnbc.com/jansing. stay close, more chris jansing

reports just after this. (intercom) t minus 10... (janet) so much space! that open kitchen! (tanya) ...definitely the one! (ethan) but how can you sell your house when we're stuck on a space station for months???!!! (brian) opendoor gives you the flexibility to sell and buy on your timeline. (janet) nice! (intercom) flightdeck, see you at the house warming.

hi, my name is damian clark. and if you have both medicare and medicaid, i have some really encouraging news that you'll definitely want to hear. depending on the plans available in your area, you may be eligible to get extra benefits with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. most plans include the humana healthy options allowance. a monthly allowance to help pay for eligible groceries, utilities, rent, and over-the-counter items like vitamins, pain relievers, first-aid supplies and more. the healthy options allowance is loaded onto a prepaid card each month. and whatever you don't spend, carries over from each month. you can pay nothing for covered prescriptions, all year long. even name-brand drugs. all plans have $0 copays for covered preventive dental services, which include 2 free cleanings a year, as well as fillings. they may also have vision coverage including vision exams and a yearly allowance towards

eyewear such as lenses or contacts. even hearing coverage, which includes routine hearing exams and coverage towards hearing aids. you'll even have a $0 copay for routine vaccines and telehealth visits. plus, your doctor, hospital and pharmacy may already be part of our large humana networks. so, call the number on your screen now to speak with a licensed humana sales agent. wouldn't you love benefits like a monthly allowance to help pay for eligible groceries, utilities, rent and over-the-counter items? so, if you have medicare and medicaid, call the number on your screen now and speak with a licensed humana sales agent. if you're eligible, they can even help enroll you over the phone in a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. and remember, annual enrollment ends on december 7th. so, call now. humana. a more human way to healthcare.

it is good to be back with you in this second hour of "chris jansing reports." at this hour, three notches in the rust belt. kamala harris tackling three battleground states today in an effort to shore up the blue wall, making stops in pennsylvania, michigan, and wisconsin. the campaign buddy she's bringing along and the v