i'm katy tur. one week until the election. one week, and the conversation is suddenly about seven years ago, as puerto ricans begin to

reflect on what donald trump thinks of them. back in 2017, hurricane maria devastated the island. it killed almost 3,000 people and stranded thousands more. as the rains and the winds washed out roads and destroyed critical infrastructure, including the energy grid. it was so bad, the u.s. navy sent its medical ship, usns comfort. but a lot of aid was denied. as nbc news reported at the time, trump repeatedly, donald trump, the president, by the way, repeatedly opposed disaster funding for the island and failed to acknowledge the full death toll. "the washington post" found that donald trump even told top white house officials at the time that he did not want a single dollar going to puerto rico, and that he instead wanted more of that money to go to texas and florida. the refusal of help was compounded by trump's lone visit to the island in the aftermath of maria, where he stopped by a relief event at a church and did

this. throwing paper towels to the crowd of people who had just experienced a deadly and devastating hurricane. in the aftermath of the island of garbage joke from sunday, it is that treatment you're seeing right here from seven years ago that could change the election. as puerto ricans wonder what another four years of donald trump would be like for them. >> what this comedian said the other day, not only rings with puerto ricans but it also rings to their spouses that might not be puerto ricans, to the children that might be able to vote, to friends that might be able to vote also. and trump should understand this

right now. he should have never let that comedian say what he said. >> there are roughly 1.2 million people of puerto rican heritage in florida, and 479,000 puerto rican residents in pennsylvania. including 34,000 in allentown. trump will be in allentown tonight with puerto rican guests nbc news is told. but while the campaign has tried to distance itself from the garbage joke, trump himself has not addressed it, and his vp candidates said he couldn't yet be sure if the joke was racist. >> i haven't seen the joke. you know, maybe it's a stupid racist joke, as you said. maybe it's not. i haven't seen it. i'm not going to comment on the specifics of the joke, but i think we have to stop getting so offended at every little thing in the united states of america. i'm so over it. >> jd vance is over it. are voters?

joining us now, in d.c., yamiche alcindor, nbc news correspondent shaquille brewster, and msnbc political contributor mark leibovich. shaq, i'm going to start with you. the trump team is trying to distance itself, the campaign at least is. a lot of republicans are coming out and saying that, hey, they don't want to have anything to do with this. they condemn the joke, but donald trump has not condemned the joke. he didn't come out after that joke was said that evening, eve fr an the backlash started to say anything about the joke. he has not said anything since. and jd vance gets out and says he hasn't seen it even though it's been shared tens of millions of times. what can you tell us about the internal workers of the campaign and whether there's pressure on donald trump to say something. >> reporter: there are signals this is something they're taking seriously. the trump campaign telling dasha

burns at that event later tonight, a rally in allentown, a city with a large latino population that the speakers ahead of donald trump will be heavy on -- will be heavy and full of puerto rican leaders and supporters. we know that separately, we'll expect to see at that rally senator marco rubio, who has come out and condemned the joke that was made on the stage at madison square garden, but the point you make is really important because we have not heard that combination come from donald trump or jd vance, instead, according to abc news, in a phone interview or an off camera interview this morning when donald trump was asked about that, he simply said he didn't know the comedian and he didn't hear the joke. but did not take the opportunity to condemn the joke specifically. so that's something that you have definitely heard, and you mentioned, bipartisan condemnition for the skroek. a lot of people trying to separate the candidate from the

statement, but the candidate himself is not doing that to this point. we'll have to see what he does on stage later today. >> we'll see if he addresses it. this is one of those, if he does, it would be a singular moment for him to address something like this head on, if he apologized. i'm not holding my breath, but if he were to do it. yamiche alcindor, the harris campaign is obviously trying to push this out further. and it is already getting a lot of traction. this is separate from the harris campaign. the videos of that comment have been viewed tens of millions of times. i think that's a conservative estimate. you have a number of high profile puerto ricans tweeting it was disgusting and saying to vote for kamala harris, including bad bunny. nate silver observed this yesterday, google searches for trump have spiked to the highest point since the second assassination attempt. yesterday, more people were googling tony hinchcliffe, the comedian, than taylor swift. this is clearly breaking through. i wonder, are we expecting to

hear any more about it from kamala harris herself tonight when she's on the ellipse? >> reporter: it's a key question, katy. what we do know is the harris campaign is definitely seizing on these comments and seizing on the attention that these comments are getting with so many people calling this a racist joke that was really embraced by the trump campaign. even though they're trying to put some distance between themselves and that comment, and of course, the supporters at the rally. we have heard from a number of people including former president barack obama on the campaign trail saying this really shows this is a campaign that doesn't respect these americans, because we have to underscore that puerto ricans are americans. american citizens. the question is whether or not vice president harris when see takes the stage at what will likely be her biggest campaign event, whether or not she'll talk about it. from my understanding, she's going to try to have a hopeful, optimistic speech, talking about her vision for america and

juxtaposing that with donald trump's vision for america, saying i can be a president for all americans, an inclusive america. she might hint at the idea that donald trump's america is an america where people are vilified, where people are shown to be seen as others and people aren't welcomed. i also know that she's going to be talking about her to-do list, the things she wants to do, including taking care of the economy and cutting taxes and making sure abortion bans are done away with. and then she's going to be saying donald trump has an enemies list and he's a threat to democracy. it will be interesting to see whether the specific issue on the puerto rian comments come up tonight, but they would certainly come up on the campaign trail. i do expect to hear her talking about this as the days go on. >> it's interesting, the biden campaign said from the beginning that their goal was to remind americans what trump was like when he was president. they wanted to sit back and let him talk and americans would see him, hear him, they would be reminded of all the chaos. it didn't really work, according

to the polling. but i wonder, mark, if this is a moment where it works, where this is a moment where suddenly a lot of americans are looking back to what donald trump did when he was president, to a single moment. this is not the pandemic, but going back to the hurricane response for puerto rico in 2017. the island got devastated and trump went out and threw paper towels. the aid did not come. he didn't want to send all the aid to puerto rico. he wanted to redirect it to texas and houston. then there was the comment he made, according to peter baker and susan glasser in their boom, that he wanted to try to trade the island of puerto rico for greenland. >> yeah, no, there is a lot of that, in some ways it's a perfect situation for the harris campaign, the madison square garden event, which obviously was way over the line and deeply offensive to a lot of people. but it's also a perfect reminder of what they're running on and even when it was joe biden, what he was running on.

i think biden's problem is his own age issues and performance issues frankly were making it hard to get people to focus on what trump represented and what his presidency was like and what it could be going forward. i think at the ellipse tonight, what's interesting about it is obviously this was chosen because that was a spot where donald trump gave his january 6th address before the protesters rioted on the capitol. and so you have that, and i assume a lot of her rhetoric tonight is going to echo to that and try to sort of contrast herself with a more uplifting message, more unified message. also, you have this madison square garden event which was only two nights ago, and probably is going to linger for the rest of the week, and that is a reminder not just of chaos and this sort of a lack of boundaries and sort of unhinged atmosphere, but also just hate, frankly. i mean, no one wants to be associated with that. and it's very different because in the last days of '16, you had

"access hollywood." that was sort of treated i think in retrospect as a bit of a one-off. like donald trump is being donald trump. this is a largest thematic about how americans view themselves which i think is frankly dangerous for donald trump. >> hate and rage and otherism. the joke itself tapping into more of a theme for maga world and trump world than what he was like had he was president and what they had been campaigning on. i think it's interesting of all the jokes that were told or the comments that were made on sunday, full of racist and misogynistic hateful comments toward not just puerto ricans but latinos more broadly, also hillary clinton called names, kamala harris with the tucker carlson, the racist way he described her, saying she had low iq as well, the comments about jews, the comments of palestinians throwing rocks. of all the things that were said on that stage, america is for

americans only by stephen miller, this is the only thing the trump campaign is responding to. >> well, i think it was probably the most egregious, but also, puerto rricans, they see the vulnerability and the numbers in places like allentown, pennsylvania, where they have large, you know, puerto rico populous, certainly florida and a lot of places across the country. so yeah, it's a very tangible political vulnerability that they're dealing with here. and i think on the whole of it, i think, look, this is not a good look for the trump campaign in the final days, at all. i'm sure donald trump is most upset about the fact that this is overshadowing whatever grand eloquence he believes he delivered from the stage at madison square garden. and people are ignoring the crowd and all of that. so anyway, no, i think it sort of lines up well with what the harris campaign is going to want to talk about. >> what do you think of what jd vance said about it? he hasn't seen it even though it's been out there for so long?

>> it's nonsense. a big eye roll. you know what happened. you know what he said. i do think the -- >> what about the i'm not sure if it is racist? maybe it is, maybe it's not. >> yeah, again, you can find any number of republicans who have said the exact same answer in response to any kind of outrage that's come out of the trump world over the last seven years. up on the hill and so forth. with vance, the larger point he tried to make is everyone needs to lighten up. you saw the heads nodding behind him. that is an ethos that the trump world wants to try to create. like this consequence-free environment where the only thing people need to worry about is just lightening up and letting them offend who they're going to offend because that's not the world that they grew up wanting to live in. >> yeah, it gets offensive when you don't feel like it's a joke, where there's an underlying truth to it or you feel that people who are saying it or the crowd that's gathered feels like there's an underlying truth to

it. mark and yamiche, thank you very much. i hope i said that eloquently enough. joining us now, the mayor of allentown, pennsylvania. the first latino mayor of allentown. thank you for joining us. how is this resonating with your community? >> it's not hitting well. i think people are pretty irritated, enraged and a word i have heard quite a few people say. it was -- i take issue with it being called a joke. it's an insult hurled at people who have significant connection to this island that is strong in our hearts. it's a place that we have a strong connection to here in allentown. and it goes -- it goes beyond anything this community had heard before from president trump, former president trump. >> trump himself didn't say it. why is this making them feel like this is what trump believes and this is what trump feels?

>> i think because it connects to the paper towels. it connects to the blocking of aid. it connects to the effort to sell the island. and the last thing that our community, the puerto rican community had heard from former president trump was the trump check. in a lot of people's minds, it was that's what he did for us, but now, the last thing, this last thing is the island that you all came from, that you all have a connection to, that you still have family in is a floating pile of garbage. whether it comes out of donald trump's mouth or from his campaign, it's clear his sentiment and a sentiment consistent with his comments related to other communities. and when this guy is supposed to be making his closing argument for why he should have people's votes, he uses the opportunity to trash a population. it's important to his re-election efforts. so kind of confusing, i think, to our residents and certainly a push for people to get out and vote. >> let me play a little bit of a

few interviews that our colleague george solis did with some puerto rican residents around there. let's play it. >> the buck stops with him. and it was insulting. it was degrading. and a lot of children were watching on tv. >> i don't understand why these people are voting for him, because he doesn't have anything to give us. that's, you know, decent. he don't care for people. he just care for himself. you know, he don't care about spanish people. >> wrong time. with little days left to election and trump trying to do his best for the latino community, i think it was total downfall for him to do that. i can't speak for all puerto ricans but i can speak for myself. i ain't changing my vote. i'm sticking with trump. trump is the one that's going to make everything better for the latino community. >> the country, no, i like it. i'm sorry, but i prefer kamala.

>> so you see a mixed bag there with the one gentleman who is going to the rally and still a supporter of donald trump, but again, saying it was bad timing. do you think this is going to motivate people to vote? were there people who maybe weren't going to vote who want to go out now? >> yeah, i mean, i knock on a lot of doors. the mayor of allentown, i'm here in the site, i'm out all the time knocking on doors and talking with our residents, and there were some people who were kind on on the fence. they were kind of excited about kamala harris, but they weren't sure they wanted to get out and vote. this is the type of thing that will push people out the door, particularly when it's coupled with vice president harris' closing argument which is creating a plan for economic opportunity for people, not just in puerto rico but here in pennsylvania and across the country that's connected to housing and entrepreneurial opportunity and investment in health care and education. like, that's what we're looking for.

and this could be that spark that motivates people to get out and actually go to the polls. >> mayor of allentown matt turk, thank you. mr. mayor, thank you so much. i appreciate your time, sir. >> and still ahead, who does the harris campaign believe they are talking to when she gives a speech on the ellipse tonight? errin haines and cornell belcher will join us. plus, extremists want to stop people from voting, what u.s. intel is warning law enforcement to watch out for in key states. >> can democratic senators in swing states still win? even if kamala harris does not at the top of the ticket? we'll take a closer look at the crucial senate race in ohio. we're back in 90 seconds. skin cell turnover... ...and fights not one—but 5 signs of aging. with visible results... ...in just one week. neutrogena my moderate to severe crohn's disease...

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with exactly one week to go, vp kamala harris will be steps from the white house tonight giving what the campaign hopes will be a meaningfully symbolic speech about democracy and more on the ellipse. joining us, the 19th editor at large and nbc political contributor errin haines and democratic strategist, pollster, and msnbc political analyst cornell belcher. welcome. cornell, i want to begin with you. tell me, is a good idea for kamala harris to be standing so close to the white house tonight, one week to go before election day?

>> well, i think the symbolism is strong. and campaigns as much as we like to think it's about policy and white papers and all these details, in the end, it's the imagery that you remember and the symbolism. i think the symbolism of her standing there where donald trump launched, you know, the attacks on our capitol, the riot on our capitol, january 6th, the symbolism of her standing there in that same spot trying to bring americans together and talking about how we need to turn the page on division and chaos, much of the things that you were talking about in your last segment, how we need to turn the page on those things and bring americans together is really powerful symbolism. i think more so than policy, people will remember that symbolism and it will have meaning for them. >> erin, do you agree with that from the reporting you have done and talking to voters?

>> absolutely. and i think that vice president harris is somebody that's been very aware of kind of the symbolism and the optics of this campaign, particularly as she works to really expand the electoral's political imagination. she will be standing steps from the white house. she needs to american people to see her as somebody who is presidential. i think about her campaigning with liz cheney in wisconsin, the birthplace of the republican party. there were optics to that as well as a message that she was delivering a message of unity and trying to reach across the aisle to appeal to people who may not traditionally have been open to her candidacy. you think about in the last few days seeing her on stage for the first time with former president obama and with michelle obama. kind of thinking about the possibility of what can happen a week from today should voters choose her to be the first woman president, the first black woman to be president. so tonight is another opportunity to kind of really remind voters about the big lie that donald trump is still telling voters. you know, and kind of raising

the specter of a rigged election going into next week. and also, just reminding people about, you know, what that big lie led to on january 6th, 2021. that insurrection that was aimed at overturning a fair election that was sparked by somebody who refused to peacefully transfer power. >> i wonder, though, if that isn't already pretty well pounded, pretty well documented. the harris campaign has been doing this for four month now. biden was doing it for years before that. it was the entirety of his campaign. those who watched january 6th and were appalled by it, they're largely voting. is it preaching to the choir? i was with a bunch of campaign hacks from other campaigns and every one of them expressed curiosity, if not dismay, at harris having this event tonight in washington of all places. linking her to washington, to voters, and linking her to the biden administration, which has

been according to polling, pretty unpopular when she needs to convince those, that small segment of people to go out and vote and that she is a change maker, that she's going to be a difference maker in their lives. cornell, do you see anything with that? tell me. >> yeah, me first on that. you should stop hanging out and drinking with those hacks. listen, politics 101 is repetition. it reminds me of the conversation we had after biden went to philadelphia and talked about democracy and he put democracy in the conversation for the midterm election, and in the post election data what you see clearly is it was an important part of along with abortion rights, it was an important part of that conversation that helped democrats get to a toss-up election. she is, again, it's not about saying one thing once and then walking away with it. she has to define the terms of

this debate, and it's about democracy and about freedoms, your rights being threatened. and what better place than to go where, again, he challenged the orderly transfer of power of our country and challenged our democracy from a symbolic standpoint, what better place to go than this and remind voters over and over again, again, it's not complicated. it's messaging 101, repeat, repeat, repeat. >> we spoke to some former nikki haley voters who are reacting to the rally on sunday. trump's madison square garden rally. here's what they told nbc news focus group. >> as a republican, i have become so upset because this is not the republican party that i know. >> it was so out of pocket. it was so disrespectful. >> i'm not going to vote for

harris because of it. it still makes me torn. >> i think it's disgusting. i can't say that it would change my vote. i don't think there's any place for that in a political rally. i don't think there's a place for that anywhere. >> errin, what do you think about i don't like it, i think it's disgusting but it's not going to change my vote. >> it matters. this is a moment that broke through in our media but is it breaking through with voters? that will be the question tonight for, you know, voters who may be watching harris' big speech tonight. i think that probably will draw a big audience. and to cornell's point, people who maybe have not been tuned in to this election, there's still some number of undecided voters, despite the increjewelty of political hacks or people like

us who get paid to watch it and be obsessed with it, but so many american people say they're turned off to politics, turned off to the news. maybe they haven't been paying as much attention. and yes, the threat to democracy was a priority for president biden. it's been a priority for vice president harris as she's been campaigning but she knows the voters' priority is also the economy. so i think that is why you're also going to hear that message tonight on the ellipse. her talking about what she's going to do for the american people as president on the issue that is the most important thing to them, not saying the threat to democracy is not something they also care about, but over and over again, we hear that voters care about the economy more than anything else. so i think this is also an opportunity for her to kind of reclaim that space, to talk about the future and not just what happened on january 6th. >> errin haines, cornell belcher, thank you. steve bannon got out of prison this morning. he's already looking for media attention hours later, holding a

news conference in new york. he spent four months in prison for defying a congressional subpoena into the investigation of january 6th, and with less than one week to go before election day, trump's former chief strategist is not wasting any times, recording a new episode of his war room this morning, and telling viewers prison didn't break me. it empowered me. coming up, with the threat of violence around the elesk escalating, what new measures have been put in place to keep workers and voters safe at the polls. and what a few races in a few states could swing the balance of power in the senate. the senae yes that is your name. if you saw his piglet head you would say the same. toot toot.

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there are people out there who want to stop votes from being counted. the intel community is warning state and local law enforcement that extremists are making threats around voting. nbc news correspondent stephanie gosk shows us what polling places are doing to keep both voters and their votes safe. >> the fbi and department of homeland security are warning law enforcement nationwide over a threat from violent domestic extremists. that's according to a joint intelligence bulletin reviewed by nbc news. when voters go to the polls they will likely see increased security because of it. everything from more police, metal detectors, even bulletproof glass. this morning, with early voting under way nationwide, a growing list of alarming incidents in the build-up to election day.

multiple ballot box fires set by incendiary devices in portland, oregon, and vancouver, washington, where hundreds of ballots were destroyed. authorities say this suspect vehicle was spotted at both sites but they haven't made any arrests. >> acts like this are targeted and they're intentional, and we're concerned about that intentional act trying to affect the election process. >> reporter: in a texas voting center where campaign materials are not allowed by law, a man allegedly assaulted an election clerk who told him to remove a maga hat. >> i can't think of anything like this happening during my time here as sheriff, and i certainly hope to never see it again. >> reporter: with election workers' safety among their concerns, state and local election officials tell nbc news they put in a range of new security measures since 2020. there's bulletproof glass at the harvard county board of elections office in maryland. the mail room in durham county, north carolina, soon to be

equipped with a panic button. in maricopa county, arizona, snipers will be set up on the tabulation center's rooftop. in philadelphia, mail-in ballots will be counted in this warehouse outside the city center. >> count all legal votes. >> reporter: four years ago, the count looked like this at the convention center downtown. >> we will have a very heavy law enforcement presence. >> reporter: city commissioner says this time around, they have more control with gates, fences topped with barbed wire, and multiple checkpoints. do you feel like you need that security for this election? >> unfortunately, i think it's necessary. we have to be prepared for the worst case scenario. >> reporter: he like many election officials faced violent threats in 2020 against himself and his family. the father of three moving his family elsewhere during the election. >> it's really frustrating. nobody should feel unsafe doing the job of counting votes. >> reporter: a study published this year found nearly 40% of

election workers say they're facing abuse and harassment. and over 90% of local officials have taken steps to increase election security for both workers and voters. back to you. >> stephanie, thank you very much. still ahead, what two issues are driving arizona voters to the polls? and what that could mean for the presidential race. first, what voters are saying in a critical ohio district that voted for trump but also voted to protect abortion rights. don't go anywhere. trust at pr. whatever you do, do it for less at harbor freight. ♪♪ (♪♪) if you're on medicare, remember, the annual enrollment period is here. the time to choose your coverage... begins october 15th... and ends december 7th. so call unitedhealthcare and get... coverage you can count on for your whole life ahead, with our broad range of plans... including an aarp medicare advantage plan

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next week, the entire house of representatives will be up for re-election, meaning control of the house is truly up for grabs. on the senate side, 34 of the 50 senate seats are on the ballot, but only a few of them are truly in contest. but that does include democratic senator sherrod brown's seat in red, red, red ohio. joining us now, nbc capitol hill correspondent ali vitali who is in lorain, ohio. so he's the incumbent senator, longtime guy there. ohioans know him well. does he have a shot even though kamala harris does not as of now have a real shot at winning ohio? >> reporter: katy, at this point, if anyone has a shot at outperforming the top of the ticket it's senator sherrod brown, because he's done it before. but here at this polling place in lorraine county, we have frankly had a line with us all

day. voters have been standing outside waiting to cast their ballot during this early voting period. they're averaging about 1700 voters here today on a daily basis since early voting started. and when we came here, it was because we were looking for those voters not just who were going to be voting all demdown the ticket or all republican down the ticket but those who might be willing to split. specifically if there were republicans who would also be voting for their longtime senator here, despite the fact that he has a "d" after his name. we only managed to find one of those people, and she didn't want to talk to us on camera. she said she voted for trump at the top of the ticket and brown further down the ballot for senate. but for most of these people, it's a full party line vote. listen to what folks have been telling us today. >> yeah, i voted for marino. >> the tract factor there too? >> i like trump. but i would say, like, values wise, it more lines up, the republicans line up with my

values. >> well, ohio is a red state. >> it wasn't always. >> well, it wasn't always, but the republicans weren't always who donald trump is either. >> he has remade a lot of things. >> he's rewritten the word republican. >> what do you think that means for senator sherrod brown? >> i think it means that he's going to have a tough fight. i hope he wins. >> reporter: and katy, you and i actually watched from the very beginning in states like ohio of how trump rewrote the word republican. this is a state that was a swing state before. now firmly in the red column. and in talking to folks here who are experts on the ground including the election official here in lorraine county, he said, yeah, ticket splitters exist. it's why sherrod brown has been able to prove he can outperform the top of the ticket before but they're harder to find now. if they become that much more difficult to find, that makes sherrod brown's job more difficult. >> the state used to be so swingy, it was the one which told you which person would be

president. not so anymore. ali, thank you. joining us now, senior editor and elections analyst with the cook political report, david wassermann. good to have you. what do you think of sherrod brown's chances? >> katy, i think this is the purest toss-up on the senate map. it's amazing, astounding he's been able to continue to be in a dead heat even as the state has become more republican. it's a testament to moreno's poor follow-through. he hasn't put money into the race, the personal funds he said he would. also brown's ability to outrun the top of the ticket, and he has been benefitted from kamala harris reenergizing black voters in ohio's central cities. that reduces the amount he needs to outperform the top of the ticket by. >> there are other senate races that are surprisingly in play or seem to maybe be in play. you have elissa slotkin, who is really competing with mike rogers for that open senate seat

in michigan, the democrat over the republican. bob casey is obviously fighting off a challenge in pennsylvania. jon tester fighting off a challenge in montana. ted cruz and colin allred, we have been talking about that. tammy baldwin. there's also deb fischer in nebraska who could be having to fight off a challenge from dan osborn, who is running as an independent in nebraska, but she's a republican in that state. what do you think might happen in the state of nebraska? does dan osborn have a chance running as an independent, a pro-union guy in nebraska? >> katy, i feel like i have seen this movie before in a couple past races where independents have challenged republicans in utah and kansas. my gut feeling is that republicans are going to end up winning the seat. fischer is going to get re-elected, but only after republicans have had to spend tens of millions of dollars. and that's money they wish they were spending in michigan or nevada, where it looks like democrats might have slight

advantages. >> what about for election day? as you're looking to see which way things are swinging, are there any particular counties you're going to be watching for that will tell you whether kamala harris is going to win or donald trump? >> yeah, i'm going to be watching two counties closely in southeastern pennsylvania. bucks county, it's no accident that donald trump picked mcdonald's in feasterville, pennsylvania, in lower bucks county, to sling fries. because this is a place where republicans recently took the voter registration advantage. it's a more blue collar part of the philly suburbs, and it's a place where trump really feels like he can make ground relative to 2020. on the other hand, i'll also be watching northampton county which is north of there, the swingier county of the lehigh valley counties, and this is where we could see it show up if there's a backlash to the madison square garden rally. keep in mind bethlehem,

pennsylvania, is about 30% hispanic. next door, allentown is majority hispanic and a lot of that is puerto rican voters. so they could be really decisive in northampton county in particular, bethlehem and easton, it's predicted the winner of the state in every election since 1972. >> really interesting. what about georgia? what about arizona? any counties in those places? >> yeah. in georgia, we're looking at baldwin county. keep in mind, even as democrats have gained ground in the atlanta suburbs, we have seen the black share of the population decline in south and middle georgia. and that has made it harder for democrats to kind of keep their margins at a place where atlanta can overcome the rest of the state. milledgeville is a college town. about 40% black. and it narrowly voted for joe biden four years ago. so if trump does break through, that would be a sign harris isn't getting the support or

turnout that she needs from african american voters in the state. and then in arizona, maricopa county makes up 60% of the state's vote, and it's going to take a long time to count ballots there. there are a lot of microelectorates within maricopa. you have lds voters in the east valley who could support trump at lower levels than other republicans or previous republicans atop the ticket. you have a lot of independent retirees in the west valley. and then of course, you have working class latino voters in phoenix. you also have a number of mccain legacy republicans in scottsdale and north phoenix who are turned off by trump and kari lake. so it's a fascinating place that will decide that pivotal state. >> just yes or no on this, all i have time for. is there a chance we could call the election on election night or in the early morning hours the next day? >> i'm going to go out on a limb and say that we will know the winner within the first 48

hours. maybe even the first 24 hours. that's my guess based on states counting their ballots faster than last time. but also, this could end up being a point or two race in either direction different from the tie that we see in a lot of these state polls. >> all right, dave. it wasn't yes or no, but you did it quickly. thank you so much. appreciate it. coming up next, immigration or abortion? which issue arizona voters say is driving them to the polls. don't go anywhere. and 5g solutions from t-mobile for business. t-mobile connects 100,000 delta airlines employees. powers tractor supply stores nationwide with reliable 5g business internet. and helps red bull revolutionize coverage of live events. this is how business goes further with t-mobile for business. if you're living with hiv,

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already voted in arizona. a state where there are three major decisions on the ballot. the presidency, an open senate seat, and abortion. nbc news correspondent liz is on the ground in the sunbelt swing state. >> reporter: in battleground arizona, two issues are shaping two sides of one very divided political race. >> this is the first election that you have done what you're doing? >> absolutely. >> reporter: outside phoenix, abortion access advocates going door to door. >> hi, there. >> reporter: targeting registered democrats who don't always vote, thinking this is the issue that might change that. >> arizonians from across the political spectrum regardless of their age, their gender, their religious affiliation, they agree with us that pregnant patients should have the freedom

to make reproductive health care decisions. >> reporter: on the ballot prop 139, which would enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution. it's an initiative poised to pass that some democrats hope could give kamala harris a turnout boost in a state that went for biden last election by just over 10,000 votes. >> soon as this cause came up, the light bulb went off. this is the way we're going to get young people and minorities to the polls. >> reporter: this abortion measure made the ballot because of a huge grassroots effort. in fact, they got more signatures than any other initiative in arizona state history. and yet, there are other issues driving voters to the polls. and in some cases, a vote for the abortion measure is not a guaranteed vote for harris. >> you could see yourself voting for former president trump but also supporting the abortion measure? >> correct. >> reporter: if abortion is the issue motivating democrats, for republicans, it's immigration. we went south to tucson where painting contractor daniel gutierrez who is running for congress, sees border security as the number one issue that's

getting his friends and family to vote. how important is this border issue to voters here? >> it's a major issue. even to the hispanics. now we have people coming from all over the world here. they're no longer just coming from mexico. >> reporter: like abortion, immigration is also on the ballot. voters are deciding whether to give local and state law enforcement the power to arrest anyone who crosses the border outside the official port of entries. do you think this bill counters any effect that kamala harris might get from voters coming out to the polls? >> i think it certainly could. that's what people are worried about. money in their pockets and their safety. >> reporter: two mobilizing issues, one state, and a razor thin race for turnout. nbc news, arizona. >> personal note here, i know andrea mitchell made news on her show a couple hours ago, but as she's not actually stepping away from the anchor desk until next year, until after the inauguration, i choose not to

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