evening from new york and welcome to a special election edition of the weekend. i alicia menendez with symone sanders-townsend in michael steele. in just a moment we are going to bring you the first part of someone's exclusive conversation with first gentleman doug imhoff. before that we have had two big pieces of breaking news. first, nbc news has just confirmed that vice president harris will appear on saturday night live tonight. the other breaking news, the register is out with another breaking poll showing vice president harris with a three point lead over donald trump in that state.

harris has the support of 47% of likely voters to trumps 44%. that result was in the margin of error. joining us now, pollster jn selzer. all right, we are coming on air right now with this polling and we can just put it up on the screen for folks because i did not have this on my bingo card, as i like to say. vice president kamala harris 47%. donald trump, 44%. take us inside your poll. what is new here? we know there is a majority of iowa men saying they prefer trump. the majority of women say they prefer harris. among likely iowa voters, this seems like something is happening. >> it does seem like something is happening. we have been living with the numbers day by day as we have been gathering the data, so we have had a little bit of time to get over the initial shock. iowa was a very republican state. there is only one person at

statewide office or federal office, who was a democrat, so to have the presidential candidate lead by a substantive margin was shocking to begin with. one of the reasons she is leading is because of her strength with women, generally. even stronger with women age 65 and over. her margin is more than two to one, but this is an age group that shows up to vote, or votes early in disproportionately large numbers, so it is a little bit of a boost that kamala harris has gone this time. >> for me, this is very telling of a lot of the effort and the importance of a little thing called ground game. when a campaign coming in with 107 days to make the case to communities across the country, we know the importance of

communities like ours, particularly as you get closer to the election, as it is in the beginning so here we are at the end. what is your take on that aspect of this, that the numbers have changed so dramatically from the 18 points donald trump had to now kamala harris -- over joe biden, 18 points -- to now having kamala harris up by three. >> you know, clearly there is something going on here if our poll numbers are correct and it is the same method i have used really since i started polling, so we have a good accuracy rate. we are comfortable with what it is that we do, which is to allow our data to reveal to us what is happening with the future electorate. that may be the little lucky charm here, that we are able to uncover the change that is happening on the ground.

we certainly know anecdotally as you drive around the metro area, you see far more -- i guess i would say far fewer trump signs than we have seen in past cycles, but you know, it is hard to put too much faith in that, so now we have some hard numbers. we will see. i will just mention that neither of these candidates gets to 50%, so there still is some swing left to be determined on election night. >> it has been fun to watch all of the folks who follow poles on twitter try to decide what your poll means for other states and so i wonder, when you look at white voters specifically, if you think there is something in your poll that you can extrapolate out to michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania? >> graphics are showing there is clearly a gender gap there. iowa is predominantly white, so there is not much analysis we can do on the non-white vote, but i think what it does say is

that polls that are deciding that they know what the future electorate looks like maybe basing it on past electorates, and in some cases, that would give harris an advantage, and in some states, that would give donald trump of the advantage. we will see how that plays out. i just feel like these numbers represent our last poll in september had trump leading by just a four-point margin when joe biden back in june had lost by an 18-point margin, so we are certainly seeing an upward come almost linear shift in the democratic strength in iowa. >> you know, i just want to know that the only democrat elected statewide in iowa, rob sand, when your poll came out he texted me and rob has been saying for a very long time --

he is the state auditor -- there have been many close losses in iowa, and iowa is in fact the place that is in play for democrats, and this poll to me, indicates that by putting in the work, infrastructure as chairman steele just noted, have democrats made iowa more competitive because of their presence there, and also the issue of reproductive rights because that was something that bubbled up on the ground throughout the state, namely led by the governor herself. >> right. i would mention that rob sand is that one democrat elected statewide, so he has his finger on the pulse of what is happening in the democratic party. as we were trying to determine you know, this is a very short poll because there is no time left to write lengthy stories with lots of data in them so we don't have as much data as we might like about why this is happening, but our consensus from the reporters who work

this beat was at the six month abortion ban went into effect just this past summer, so i think as iowans are starting to see the consequences of that, i think it has gotten people interested in voting. the thing we noticed in our september poll that shrunk trump's lead by 14 percentage points -- he loves no actual ground. he had as many respondent supporting him in september as he had in june, but the size of the likely voter pool had increased and most of that 85 respondents went to kamala harris. >> let's talk about why because that is the world i like to live in as a former party official is okay, why are voters doing what they are doing? organizations we just talked about, you and symone, planning that is all good and

critically important but the white narrative tells us a lot of the inside that's of the voters and there are two aspects of the messaging here that feeds into the why. for the trump people, the narrative they tried to get up and out in front of voters is are you better off than you were four years ago? for the harris campaign, it was a different kind of approach. it was okay, i want you to size the two of us up and you tell me which one you think is going to be better suited to take care of the nations interest over their own and i think -- i'm curious as you look i'm sure you're going to peel back on these numbers a little bit more, but do you get a sense of the why in that space that the voters looked at the messaging here is a way to sort of -- the carrot that led them to where they are right now? >> i think that question about

are you better off, that people tend to think well, that is your pocketbook. there are other ways that people are not better off, and again i go back to the dobbs decision and the six-week abortion ban, which put women of childbearing age into a danger zone. some might feel it is that way. the thing i need to point out and it was pointed out to me by one of the registered reporters, is that this change i think is largely organic. that is the presidential campaigns have not visited. they are not putting money into the state. this is not something that has been created by the campaigns themselves. iowa was largely written off which is why this poll was such a surprise so i think there's something more organic that people are deciding for themselves this is the time i'm going to get off the bench. i'm going to show up and that

it appears from my data that this is happening more on the people deciding to vote for kamala harris, the democratic candidate. >> as a former premed student at johns hopkins university, i appreciate organic chemistry. thank you so much for being with us tonight. up next, some honest conversation with second gentleman doug emhoff. you're watching a special election edition of the weekend. your best defense against erosion and cavities is strong enamel. nothing beats it. i recommend pronamel active shield because it actively shields the enamel to defend against erosion and cavities. i think that this product is a gamechanger for my patients. try pronamel mouthwash.

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in a matter of days, the nation could see the first woman president elect and also the first second gentleman. i joined doug emhoff for his final television interview before election day. a disclaimer, i once worked for the vice president. i was also with her on the campaign trail in 2020 when she joined the ticket of the then biden campaign. here's the first part of our conversation, beginning with trump's attempts to downplay the bigotry on display at his recent madison square garden rally. >> you actually responded in real time to what donald trump had to say just this morning on fox and friends, particularly about puerto ricans. he said that puerto ricans will tell you that nobody has done more for puerto rico than me. the former president goes on to

say look, he mentioned puerto rico and they made it a big deal. were the comments from that comedian at donald trump's rally in madison square garden a big deal? >> of course they were. look at the reaction. the fact that he still can't disavow it, you did not hear those words come out of his mouth, apologize for it and even understand how hurtful and just despicable those comments were, that just is kind of what the whole message that they have is about. it's about them and grievance and nothing about us, and then you have kamala harris, who actually has a plan for puerto rico to rebuild, electrify, and participate in this burgeoning opportunity economy and you don't hear trump talk about that at all and you never do, so yeah, it's outrageous. look at what bad bunny, j-lo and the entire community is so

outraged and they should be by what was said. >> they all endorsed the vice president shortly after those remarks. you could not make it up. you literally could not have written a better script for your campaign perspective. the vice president rolls out her policy for puerto rico that morning then later in the afternoon on the stage in madison square garden, the largest concentration of puerto ricans outside of puerto rico, they live in new york. and, comedian on the stages denigrating and insulting puerto ricans. also black people in this country, haitians, there were derogatory comments made about jewish people and palestinian people on that stage then all those endorsements come. do you think that is the turning point, if you will, one of the many turning points in the campaign and its final stretch? >> i think people are seeing and hearing and knowing the ramifications of what would

happen, god forbid, if trump came back in, said it herself. just in 90 days, one of those two will be sitting behind the resolute desk in the oval office. one person who is in charge of that entire chaotic situation that unfolded at madison square garden, the haight, the grievance, nothing about the american people, who would be sitting there literally with his grievance and enemies list figuring out retribution rather than policy, then you have the vision of kamala harris sitting there with her to do list, focused on the needs of all of us, americans, and where we stand on the world stage, and i think it is a combination of not just being against trump, which everyone is now, i think this trump nostalgia and this trump font of disinformation, people are finally seeing through it and if what happened

at madison square garden as a clarifying event, great, but what they are really seeing as how amazing kamala harris is going to be as president. they are seeing her and listening to her and thinking, that is what we need and that is why moderates and independents and a lot of republicans are coming out for her, because of her plans, her confidence, her competence, and they can see her as president, and then they are reminded of what it was like when he was president, the chaos, the incompetence, the grievance. they say we can't go back as a slogan, but it's true. >> it's not just a slogan. >> it's not just a slogan. i think people are now realizing it because the election is right in front of our face and she has done such a good job of not only getting people to focus on how terrible it would be with trump at how great she would be so with a combination of all those factors. >> you mentioned republicans.

i did not have cheney, liz cheney endorsing, not just endorsing the vice president's campaign, but liz cheney is on the campaign trail with vice president harris. other republicans who work for donald trump, i'm thinking of olivia troy, sarah matthews, who have done it fence with the campaign. liz cheney has said recently that she thinks george w. bush should also come out and say what he thinks about this election. >> we want to hear from any american who puts country over party, and i think that is the message i am hearing. i was just in nevada a couple of days ago doorknocking on this is not even the door i was knocking on. some guy ran out of the house and flag me down and he said i'm a republican, kamala harris is the first democrat i've ever voted for in my life because i'm putting country over party, and so that is why you see adam consider and others. what i told republicans is, a lot of them, vice president

pants, you heard what general kelly said. they are not supporting trump and they were in the room with him so whether they are supporting harris or not, they should, it should be very chilling to a lot of americans that the people who were in the room who were there who saw it firsthand are not supporting him and are literally ringing the alarm bells. that is what john kelly was doing. that is what general millie was doing, saying he is a fascist to the core really begging people to pay attention that this man is unfit to be president of the united states. what did you think? >> i could barely hear the substance of the interview because i was so taken by have

calm, cool and collected he was. you and i are built differently. have you ever been a calm, cool and collected this close to an election day? >> yes. you've got to be. >> to me it is a tell. >> it is an important tell. you know, i just appreciated the way he approached the conversation. he just really conversationally , through you, telling us about his wife, who was the vice president, who could be the vice president and that is where the personal side of it really comes through and so we are going to see more of this and we are looking forward and i think everyone else will really get the complete picture of what the first first gentleman could be like, but more importantly, i think just that calmness. that is the one thing in the interviews that both kamala and doug and others give, is just calm. i mean, you don't want okay, i

got a hit something. you know, it's just -- >> perhaps it is because he had just done a rally earlier that day with the latino caucus in pennsylvania, then also members of the black caucus, puerto ricans specifically in lancaster than in other rural folks went out on campus so we got to see him knock some doors, talk to some voters. he himself voted by mail already, and bumped into a lot of people's at the doors and some of them said they voted by mail. somewhere like we are going to vote on election day but what struck me about it is that it was effortless for him, and politics is what the second gentleman was doing. he was a business entertainment

lawyer, a very successful litigator, actually with a lot of amazing clients. so we've actually talked about he represented a lot of corporate folks so we get into a talk about the economic argument and he talks about yeah, i know these guys and he said let me just break it down for you and that is something that i think the second gentleman has grown into on his own in time, and much like the vice president, he did not have to get ready for this moment 15 weeks ago when she became the top of the ticket. they were ready. she was ready. he was ready, and i'm looking forward to people seeing our conversation about masculinity. >> very glad you began with msg. >> i've got a stand with my puerto rican brothers and sisters. >> can you tell that we are not done? don't go anywhere. were going to have more someone's conversation with the second gentleman right after this. after this. strikes... do you question the tradeoffs of treating? with ubrelvy, there's another option. ubrelvy works fast,

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let's hear from symone's conversation with second gentleman doug emhoff . >> i'm feeling this newfound sense of confidence from all of my democratic friends. it's coming out of the campaign. even the vice president is now saying we are going to win this. she is still asking for people's votes but i just feel like the tone has changed. what do you all know that we don't know? has the tone changed? >> all i know is what i have been doing for 15 weeks, traveling this country back and forth and i would say you can feel the excitement, the enthusiasm of the crowds. it is felt good the whole time, but these last two weeks, they are coming out. one of the

olympus in d.c. there was supposed to be hundred thousand people. i was just with her in vegas with j-lo, thousands and thousands of people, and you're seeing the hope in their faces. you're seeing tears of just -- we need to win this thing and i'm telling you, i feel it everywhere i go. i felt it especially these last couple of weeks when still making our closing arguments. her closing argument is i'm going to be the president for everyone. i'm going to put country over party. i'm never going to let you down. i'm going to be there for everyone. i will listen to people. i'm going to be a leader on the world stage and he's talking about grievance and just the same old stuff and again, it's like we are not going back is not just a slogan. people don't want to go back. turn the page. new leadership, and the country where there is a place for all of us and it is really starting to resonate. i think people now can see

kamala harris as president of the united states. they can feel it. the words coming out of her mouth, and i think that is what people need and that is what we are getting and that is why you are seeing what i think we are all feeling and i think she's going to win. >> you know, had michael in my head as i was asking the second gentleman that question, because michael is not one of my democratic friends. he's one of my republican friends but even michael had this confidence that democrats and republicans who have come together are now exuding. the vice president is someone who is very clear about her words but the lady used to be a prosecutor. she's very intentional. i found it notable that now she is coming out and saying we are going to win. you know, the momentum is with us. the second gentleman said he is seeing on the ground and i

think if you look at the early voting numbers, more than 72 million people at the point of us having this conversation, have voted early either in person or via mail in ballot so something is happening. couple that with the des moines register poll, i mean we don't know what's going to happen on tuesday and throughout the week, but there is something on the ground. >> there is a lot on the ground. trust me, there is a lot. >> we are like, tell us what you know. >> there is a lot and here is where a lot of a lot comes from. you have right now and i believe about 21 states still seen voter registration up to same-day registration, so the more this campaign exudes that confidence, and the more people feel that confidence, and that is -- there is something about this week leading up to get out the vote we can't -- weekend

that starts at energy flowing. what you notice are two things. one, a regression in the energy by donald trump. >> who has a rally right now, by the way. we will be monitoring bit. >> there are images of people at rallies with empty seats. there are images of people leaving, so there is this -- you know, the reality of it is there is an energy flow that leads into this weekend that is born out of what people are beginning to sense about each of the candidates, and that is why kamala harris can come out and say what she says. i'm going to win this. because she is feeling it and the people are feeling it so there is the symbiosis that occurs, and the underground stuff, particularly now feeding into the folks who are still going to register, who basically said i don't know if i'm going to do this election you know, and madison square garden -- oh, where is my --

let me get -- right? a lot of different things trigger that energy for people to get engaged in the process in addition to the candidate. it may be something the other candidate said or did. it may be events that occur globally or otherwise but for her, a lot of the stuff is lining up. i'm not calling the race on saturday night, but what i am saying is, to your conversation with the second gentleman, he sees it. he knows it. he is out there. there is a shift in the energy. it is reflected in this iowa poll that just came out and there is more to come. that's all i have to say. >> we have more to say. stay with us and you'll get to hear the rest of it along with the rest of symone's interview . the rest of it is going to air tomorrow morning starting at 7:00 a.m. eastern. wisconsin senator tammy baldwin joins us live after this. us live after this.

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let's turn our attention now to the u.s. senate. democrats have an uphill battle to keep control of the chamber with several incumbents defending their seats on tuesday. one of those democrats is a friend of the show, wisconsin senator tammy baldwin. just last night, vice president harris campaigned with baldwin and wrapper -- rapper cardi b in wisconsin. >> we need everyone to vote. you're going to make the difference in this election. it all comes down to this. we are here together because we love our country.

we love our country. we love our country and when you love something, you fight for it. >> joining us now, democratic senator tammy baldwin of wisconsin. >> senator, good evening. it is such a pleasure to have you back with us. a part of loving the country is loving the people in the country . your opponent, eric have the -- hovde has repeatedly attacked you, your sexuality, your partner say last night at the trump rally quote, when you are in with baldwin you get politicians in office and that harrison baldwin can't even agree what a woman is and what a guy is. here's the thing that i find the most disgusting and disturbing is that these folks

actually don't know anybody who is . they don't have people who work on their staff for people who they have come across in their life, maybe even a family member, and to me it just is the height of ignorance and ugliness to live in a country that speaks about and speaks openly about freedom and we have gone through some ugly stuff, some difficult times, but here at this time to have individuals like your opponent not living the country because he clearly does not love the people who make up that country, i want to give you a moment to have a word or two for mr. hovde. >> i have a couple of points to make to that. the first one is that there has been almost $100 million spent by hovde. he is a multimillionaire, and his super pac allies, on attacking us and the idea that they don't have anything positive to say about their own agenda, they are just going,

taking to the airwaves in social media and attack, attack, attack. it is very important that we get our message through, and so i'm going to exhort your watchers to go to tammy baldwin.com and help us fight back because our message is very positive, and we are going through the contrast on the issues, but just because you invited me to, with regard to eric hovde, he has insulted just about everybody in the state of wisconsin. he talked about farmers not working hard anymore. he insulted single moms. he insulted the children of single moms. he has insulted the lgbtq community. he has insulted people who struggle with their weight. the list goes on and on and on. i think the people of wisconsin deserve somebody who respects them, who listens to them, who fights for them, not somebody who insults them.

and wisconsin, you have that choice on tuesday if you have not already voted early because there is a stark contrast on the issues -- healthcare, choice, or democracy, but there is also a stark choice with regard to me. i respect my state. i'm fighting for wisconsin everyday and eric hovde who comes dropping in for california to run for u.s. senate in wisconsin and insults just about everybody in our state. >> i mean, it is -- i wish we were making it up, but we are not, and one has to wonder if eric hovde is taking a page out of donald trump's book and he did speak ahead of donald trump in milwaukee. i mean, this race is close. this is a very close race. i want to play what eric hovde said about socialism and i want to get your response to that.

>> what do president trump and i want to do? we want to promote our free- market capitalist system that has made us the most wealthy country and people and humanity. that's what we want to do. what do harrison baldwin want to do? they want to pull us down that path of socialism where only the very people at the top do well and everybody else gets poor. that is what they want to do. >> you know, senator baldwin, that is not my understanding of policy, but perhaps i have it wrong. is that what you would like to do? do you want the very people at the top to do well and everybody else get poor? >> let me just talk about the height of hypocrisy for eric have the -- hovde to stand on

that stage and say that. he supports $4 trillion in new tax cuts that disproportionately go to the very wealthy, people like himself and big corporations. we have seen that one before. how would he achieve that? by cutting programs that the middle-class working people depend on. his plan calls for slashing social security and medicare. he would cut social security by 28%. you know, eric hovde is for spending, just not for you. eric hovde is for this tax plan that would do just the opposite of what he is talking about . the economy and tax policy are really important.

we also tell you what he would do. you know, he wants to repeal the affordable care act. he wants to have that debate all over again. i helped write the affordable care act including the provision within it i wrote, which allows young people to stay on the parents health insurance until they turn 26. on reproductive health care, eric hovde cheered when the dobbs decision came down and that their party owns the chaos that has ensued. i'm leading the effort to pass the women's health protection act in the senate. that is the bill that would codify roe nationwide and make sure that states like wisconsin and texas and idaho and i could go on and on, don't pass laws at the state level that interfere with access to those rights and freedoms. the issue contrast could not be more stark. voters have such a clear choice on tuesday. >> senator tammy baldwin of wisconsin. thank you so much for being with us this evening. up next, we are looking at the fight to take control of the house and former congressman mann derrick jones is determined to earn back his spot in that chamber. he is here at the table after this. ter this.

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let's turn our focus to the control of the house. new york may not be a presidential swing state but the two parties are fighting over a half-dozen suburban swing districts, five currently held by republicans that help decide the house majority in 2022 and are now expected once again to do the same. one of those races is for the republican incumbent been challenged by former republican democrat mann derrick jones. >> your race is one of the races that could tip the balance of the house. new york has four of the country's most vulnerable republicans. >> the contours are slightly

different. why was representative lawler in blackface and how has this come up in the race? i mean we can put it on the screen for people because i'm not being facetious here. representative michael lawler dressed as a pop star michael jackson for halloween. he was in blackface. >> yes, he was in blackface and still has not truly apologize for getting claims he did not know it was blackface in the year 2006 or at least didn't know it was offensive in the year 2006. what subsequent reporting is has made clear is that this is part of a pattern with mike lawler. politico published an article talking about two different occasions in recent weeks, one of which involved a guest at an event mike lawler hosted who used the n word. mike lawler pretended like the guest had never said anything at all, did not push back on it and there was another event at an interview in fact in which

the host said there is no such thing as white supremacy but there is such thing as black supremacy. michael lawler did not push back on that statement either. did not attend the naacp candidates form so this is part of a pattern obviously when the former president of the united states donald trump blame jewish people for his impending lot -- lost mike lawler when on television and defended that dangerously anti-semitic statement. these are just a few examples of why we need new leadership. we also talked about restoring women's basic reproductive rights and securing our southern border. i'm not going to get into the dogfight because we have enough of that. i mean, you guys just had a debate and there was a little bit back and forth on that. people see that. with three days left to go, why you? why you in the midst of everything else, why you? >> i have a record of actually delivering for working people in my district. capping the

cost of insulin for seniors like my grandmother for example, on medicare and of course starting next year no one on medicare is going to have to pay more than $2000 annually out of pocket for their prescription drugs. that is the work i and my fellow democrats did when we passed the inflation reduction act. we also work to defend her democracy from maga extremism. we now have a situation in the 17th congressional district in the lower hudson valley which is a district i used to represent before redistricting in 2022 where if we don't defeat mike lawler we will be returning >> a republican congress to do the bidding of donald trump if he returns to the white house so we're talking about a project 2025 agenda. what i'm running on right now is restoring basic reproductive rights like the women's health

protection act which would restore the benefits takeaway and roe v. wade. we would make sure we pass bipartisan border security legislation that my opponent is blocking as we have this conversation, at the direction of donald trump. we know new york state has suffered from the migrant crisis. i also want to protect social security and medicare and make it solvent for generations to come. my opponent, meanwhile, has come out in favor supporting cuts to those hard-earned benefits like raising the age of retirement, which is something he supports doing so there are real differences between us on the economics and my opponent is also rabidly anti-choice. he cheered the overturning of roe v. wade and has voted on at least 10 different occasions to restrict access to abortion. for me, policy is personal. when i was in congress i thought tooth and nail every single day for working people. my opponent has done the work it -- bidding of wall street and big corporations. >> you sort of laid out one possible scenario which is donald trump comes to power again, if we were to have a maga congress as you said, we have a very clear sense of where they had policy was, what happens if kamala harris were

to win and she either does not have the majority in the house or does not have a sizable majority in the house, what then does that mean for her governing agenda? >> i want to just lay the foundation for something that is really important but that gets overlooked. we need a democratic congress to certify a victory if kamala harris wins this election. i was in office and i voted to certify that free and fair presidential election that took place in 2020 just hours after the insurrection at the capital, so it's going to be the new congress that does that. speaker mike johnson, the most radical speaker in the history of the house, would even commit to certify a harris victory if she wins on tuesday. that is a real problem and of course, we like to govern, so i am committed to working across the aisle in the way i've done

in the past with republicans to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill into law. again my record speaks to this, the bipartisan safer communities act, the most significant set of gun safety reforms in nearly 30 years in the time we pass the legislation into law. even the chips and science actors on a bipartisan basis which now mike johnson says he wants. >> you know, it is former congressman, this is going to come down to turnout and the voters. we appreciate your time today. we will be watching your race, and you know, you let us know if you see anything in the streets. will will keep our your mac -- ear to the ground in new york. congressman ron derrick jones, thank you for coming in today. we appreciate you. that does it for this special edition of the weekend. we will see you back here bright and early tomorrow morning and we will have the rest of my conversation with second gentleman doug m hoff at

8:00 a.m. eastern. as always, be sure to follow us on social media. stick around. there is more on msnbc right after this. msnbc right after this.

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