that is it for me, thank you for watching a special edition of the sunday show. i will be back next saturday and sunday at 6:00 p.m. eastern right here on msnbc, and by then, we may have a new president elect. if you haven't already, be sure to vote on tuesday and be sure to choose wisely. remember, our democracy is at stake. but up next, rachel maddow, steve kornacki, and a team have more live coverage and will break down what to expect on election day.

stay right here on msnbc.

>> msnbc special coverage of decision 2024 begins now. >> [ music ] >> for a brief moment, admit it, you were hoping that we were going to be hosting this on ice skates. we are not, but the prospect of falling down on our faces at any moment is still just as live as it ever could be. thank you so so much for being with us. sunday, we know, is supposed to be a day of rest, but honestly, two days before a presidential election, two days before this presidential election -- so, here we are at with less than 36 hours before polls open on election day, i already have

not slept for a week. which you can tell from looking at me and from the fact that i am punchy on the first lines of the script. we're super glad to have you with us. we are ready for this if we have ever been ready for anything. i'm joined by my beloved colleagues, nicolle wallace, chris hayes, joy reid, jen psaki, steve kornacki is going to be with us in just a few minutes, some of our best friends from here at msnbc are going to be joining us over the course of the special. over these final hours, the presidential and vice presidential candidates are racing across the country, making their final pitches to voters as we speak. president donald trump is due at a rally any moment in macon, georgia. vice president kamala harris has just wrapped up a big rally in east lansing, michigan. georgia tonight will be donald trump's third swing state in one day. earlier today, he had rallies in both pennsylvania and north carolina. kamala harris has spent her whole day in michigan, starting at a black church in detroit.

she stopped to talk with voters at a detroit chicken and waffles joint. she headed into pontiac, michigan for a conversation at a black owned business, a barbershop tomorrow, she has three rallies scheduled in pennsylvania law trumps campana says he will make four stops tomorrow, ending with a rally in grand rapids, michigan. it is very much the final sprint. and we all know, sprinting is hard. at one point today at his north carolina rally, trump started talking about the republican candidate for senate in pennsylvania, looking around for him, wondering why he wasn't there. ron state, big guy, you're in north carolina, there is no reason why the pennsylvania republican senate candidate would be there. maybe have someone get you a coke. but again, lots of events in a very short and compressed timeframe right now, lots of different states, you can forgive a guy for having no idea where he is. more than 75 million americans have already cast their ballots

in this election. both campaigns still fighting for every last vote they can turn out. and until the actual vote counts start coming in on tuesday, all we really have in terms of knowing what is going to happen in this race is pulling. and there is good reasons why you are hearing everybody this cycle, even many pollsters telling you not to put too much stock in the polls this year, and there are a number of different real reasons to think that. for one thing, in the last few election cycles, mainstream incredible pollsters have had some high-profile misses, some very consequential mrs. in terms of real-world expectations in big, important races. the big question hanging over all the polls this year for 2024 is whether pollsters have adjusted their models to account for those previous misses, whether they have adjusted their models correctly. another reason polling is getting the side i this year is the increasing prevalence of sort of politically motivated,

sort of bad faith actors who are producing things that technically can be called polls, but methodologically speaking, they are more like garbage. that said, they call it a pole. if you can get enough people to post it, particularly on social media, to talk about it, maybe you can change the way people are perceiving the race, receiving the momentum, perceiving the quality of the two candidates' campaigns. garbage polls trying to create an impression that their favorite candidate will win, that her favorite candidate has the momentum. the proliferation of those bad polls and undeserved attention they have received from partisans, particularly on social media, that is another reason why your kindest and smartest friends have been telling you this year, don't pay any attention to the polls. it is a sound argument, that is it. we are still in a news environment, in which there are good polls. and particularly, where in some

states there is a gold standard poster who appears to be unaffected by larger dynamics that are making everyone whine about the polls, and the reason those individual pollsters get the gold standard designation is because of their proven sound methodology, but also because of their track record over time and that particular jurisdiction. and the prototypical example of a gold standard pole is the iowa poll done by and seltzer in iowa. the polls she produces in iowa, specifically the final iowa poll she does before each major election, or polls are known for their uncanny, predictive accuracy. this is ann seltzer's recent track record. what you see here is in each election year what her final poll said the results would be in iowa. next week is what the actual results were in iowa. and as you can see, if you look

at the senate and presidential races since 2012, purple has accurately predicted the winner of the senate and the races in iowa within one or two points every time. was a governor's race in 2018 were things went a little bit all right, but in senate and presidential races, you have seen ann selzer basically as a living bull's-eye, and that's why a lot of people had strong reactions when the des moines register ann selzer poll was posted last night. this is that poll, and it is a shock result. it shows kamala harris ahead of donald trump by three points in iowa. and the reason this is consequential to our psyche is that if this is accurate, and if anybody is accurate, it is likely to be ann selzer and the iowa poll, if this is accurate, this implies that harris might be winning iowa. three points, granted it is within the margin of error here, but it is three points. iowa is a state where neither campaign has spent any time or

resources since the primaries. they don't have a ground game there, they don't have ads up there, trump won iowa both of the past two elections, nobody thinks of it as a swing state. a democrat hasn't won in iowa since barack obama in 2012, but here she is with a lead? in addition to that top line lead, the polls internal numbers show older women voters that could, if they hold, have really major implications beyond iowa. i mean, the iowa poll shows that women who are political independence favor harris by nearly 30 points. women over the age of 65 support harris over trump by 35 points. actually, look at this. this in some ways to me is even more shocking. with all voters over age 65, the iowa whole has harris +19 over trump. that is driven by her huge margin with women over 65, but even men over 65 in this poll

are +2 for harris. if the democratic candidate is winning voters over 65 full stop, we have a very different race on our hands than we thought we did. right? if that dynamic really is happening in iowa, there is no reason to think it might not be happening in other states as well. it would just be a wildly different scenario than what we have been talking about, so that is why people have wreaked out about this one poll. this poll in particular, because it is this pollster and she has gotten her track record, this is out of a state where nobody saw it coming. joining us now is ann selzer, we know your time is really valuable, particularly on a day that the poll comes out, thank you so much for being with us. >> my pleasure. >> let me ask you first of all if i got any of that the wrong way around or if you see any of that differently than the way i laid it out for our audience. >> picture-perfect. >> okay, so, you obviously have a sterling reputation for your

ability to poll iowa. you have been doing it for a long time. what is your top line take away from your final poll before election day? were you as surprised as everybody else by the broad strokes of what you found? >> i don't see how anybody would look at those numbers and the history in iowa in the past eight, 12 years, and think that these numbers could have been foretold. we did see some of this movement toward harris in our september poll coming out of the june poll, which still had joe biden at the top of the ticket. kamala harris joined the ticket and picked up 14 points, reducing that margin to just four points, so there was certainly some momentum there, we saw some enthusiasm there, but digging into the data, we determined that it wasn't people switching positions, it was a new people, perhaps a bigger pool of people deciding to vote.

and at that time, our definition of a likely voter was someone who tells us they will definitely vote, and the numbers were especially notable among older people, among women, and among college graduates. these are all groups that are tilting toward harris. so, it seems like there was a get off the bench moment and get in the game moment, and that may have been triggered by kamala harris becoming the nominee. >> one of the internal dynamics reflected in your poll that i haven't heard discussed as much today is significant movement, it appears, since september, with men. obviously, the gender gap is massive. the numbers you're talking about with broadly women over 65, independent women, are huge for the harris campaign. trump still does have a margin, a positive margin with men in iowa, but that margin shrunk significantly since september. can you give us any insight into what is happening among specific subgroups of men,

either different age groups or demographic groups otherwise, in terms of the shift toward men where his numbers there seem to be weakening? >> well, it gets really tricky to hash things out at such a detailed level. what i will say is the number -- the gender gap among women -- the contest gap is 20 points among older women, ages 65 and over. it is more than 2-1 among that group. so, that appears to be pushing it up. and while men overall favor trump, among men, 65 and over, it is in fact a harris leader. so, i think there's something happening here and it is happening within that 65 and over age group. i was on a different chat show earlier today and one of the women from the audience talked about she has joined the 65 and over cohort and how she feels she is politically different

from the people at the top end of that 65 and over cohort, and i was like, that's right, the cohort moves up the ladder, and age is in to the older groups, so people have a stereotype that older people vote republican, and impassed cycles, that has been true, but now we have got a new cohort joining from the past cycle, and i think they are particularly sensitive to certain issues, and potentially the six-week abortion ban in iowa that was enacted, and then came into force just this summer. after the june poll was taken with joe biden on the ticket. >> it is so interesting when you're talking about this dynamic with older voters. i want to ask you if that also -- whether there is also something to say there about how likely these likely voters are to actually vote. i mean, your poll finds people over 65 to be tilting toward harris, as you say with women, overwhelmingly so. she is also doing better than

trump with the youngest voters. trump is doing better with the middle-aged people. which of these voting groups boasts the most? >> well, this is one of the things we track, because we talked to over 1000 people in order to get 800 likely voters, but we know somethings about that for 1000 that enables us to calculate what we will call the incidents. how many of all iowans in those demographic groups meet our criteria to be a likely voter? and you can do that two ways. you can say you have already voted. if that isn't likely, i don't know what is. or you can tell us he will definitely vote. and among the age 65 and over group, that incidents is 93%. so, out of 100 people in that age group we talked to, 93 said they had already voted or intended to vote. among the under 35 age group, that incidents is just 62. so, as i say, if you want a

horse to ride on, you want the older people, because they show up and vote. >> iowa pollster ann selzer, really appreciate the time you have taken to explain this to us but obviously, a national double take when these numbers first came out last night, getting your explanation of how this all came together is just invaluable to us, thank you so much. >> my pleasure. >> [ inaudible ] at i don't think anybody before donald trump today ever cast dispersions on ann selzer's ability to poll iowa. we are going to put this in context in a moment, we are going to talk to steve kornacki, have him put the iowa poll in context with other poll we are seeing, including the big msnbc poll that is out, but i've got to say, it just, nicole, feels like sort of a firecracker under the seat, like that is not supposed to be there. >> when you're on a campaign,

you have tracks. and the tracks are directional, so you know, this is getting through, how are we moving? >> daily tracking polls. >> and it is usually the most reliable data you possess. and over time, public polls got pretty close. after '16, the public polls became something different. there is something that happened this year where -- the campaigns view them in a lot of different ways, and let me just say, the best news possible in this cycle about polls is for them to be tied. because your number one thing is you need every last human being who might vote to go, and to take everyone in the home to go vote who is eligible as well. so, it is a great thing for a campaign to have the polls tied. i'm not sure we will know until after tuesday whether that was ever true. because one, there is no model post jobs. first presidential election

post jobs. two, no one changed the models after biden left and harris became the nominee. nobody went back and said we have modeled for two white men of the same vintage, if you will. no one changed the models. and then what you were setting up is no one has a filter for the things that are not reliable models or intended to be. that is another norm that has been annihilated in the era of trumpet it used to be that everyone aspired to have a poll that resembled the truth. that is another norm that has been annihilated. i was working for someone for whom her news was bad and someone for whom her news was good. i have never worked for anyone for whom her news didn't bear out. >> well, i mean, chris, you joked as he sat down here, we're talking about the iowa poll, i haven't heard anything about this iowa pulpit >> i was at a bar mitzvah night with a cell phone.

>> can i take a break, rabbi? >> just a second. >> because men over 65 [ inaudible ] and even in an entirely white state, you have to understand. it is difficult. >> well, not to cut you off, but what we have seen is that all the polling has been the same, right? and the odds of all of this independently coming out the same is like one in 9 trillion, which means they are hurting. what does hurting mean? it means there are layers of methodological assumptions that go into polling. who do we think is the electorate? separates have gotten so bad that there's so much modeling on top of the raw data, and those assumptions determine the outcomes, and there is a sense in which all the polls are showing us the same race, a dead even try. and that might just be a sociological artifact of

posters. it might be that the race is tied, or it might be we are just at the measurement methodological limitations of what we can know. the thing about the polls is since we came out of the case, we want to know the future, but we can't. and there are all sorts of people that have rushed into that bracket with goat entrails and tarot cards and divination's of all kinds, and like fundamentally, we are still in that spot, i would like to know who is going to win the election, everybody else would, too. and we don't know because the future actually is uncertain. >> i have actually also been on the good end and the bad end. what ann selzer does is a little different from other pollsters which makes her a little more accurate but she bets on what she thinks the electorate is going to be, not what the electorate was, so there are a lot of polls that are based on -- this goes to

nicolle's point about post jobs. people who are basing their polls on the 2020 electorate, we saw in 2022, it is different. there are women coming out of the woodwork, who are republicans, who are young, have never voted before, and that is what her reputation is. we will see if this bears out. i don't think the harris campaign is betting on iowa in the win column, but that is the other thing that is interesting about her. the other thing in the harris campaign, they have struggled or been trying to make up games with white voters, older white voters, as we know well. we have discussed why it is not first in the nation anymore, iowa is a very white, rural state. so, if you're looking at that for them, you kind of feel better about them than states like wisconsin and states like rural pennsylvania where maybe she is doing better or might do better than people expect with those groups. >> and i don't know if it distills that even more, but the fact that there has been zero ground game from either campaign, there has been zero grabs from either campaign, shows that whatever is happening in iowa is not in

reaction to something the campaign has been poking out and trying to nudge in terms of the electorate there, it is organically emerging. >> and nicolle hit on something that is not surprising. i think i agree with you. because the reality is that a lot of the people who were polling in 2016 and missed trumpet, then reconfigured their likely voter model to lean in the direction of adding more trump voters, because they were so afraid of having been wrong in 2016, that i think you saw the likely voter models drift right and of course, you do have the entrepreneurial polls that are trying to gain people's brain out there and they're just selling lots of pro trump dragon, but what i loved that ann selzer said is that she mentioned abortion. because i think one of the things that is missing from a lot of the likely voter models, the way they were built to still be in to not miss trump voters is abortion, and she talked about older voters. this is a perfect microcosm of

what white america is thinking after three very big things that you can't factor into any poll. january 6, this is the first presidential election in which we are litigating january 6th, that has not been tested, you can't pull it. the second thing is donald trump being indicted. there is no way to really understand as a pollster, how do i factor in how people might react to the idea of an indicted person and convicted, going to be sentenced in a couple weeks, but i go back and i have said this 1 billion times and i will keep saying it, abortion is the x factor in every election. so, you saw in 2022 the first time that voters had a chance to react, and the reaction has been strongly negative, and actually angry, and that isn't changing, and the last thing i will say here is that she mentioned older voters. i quickly looked up the age of boomers. they were born generally 1946 to '64, meaning they were born

before there was a row, then they lost row in their lifetimes. they have grandchildren. it should not shock anybody that white, black, or indifferent, people are reacting to the loss of roe. it changes everything, and if pollsters aren't taking that into account, don't pay attention to them. >> and democratic activists in iowa reacted to this poll by saying we don't think kamala harris is going to win iowa, but if these numbers are a portrait of electorate, then maybe we are going to win back some of our congressional seats in iowa, because right now, it is two republican senators and four republican members of the house. >> and they have got two really tight races. >> i think a lot of pollsters are looking at it. going i feel good about the midwest after i saw this. but she also said don't sleep on men. i have been saying this. >> i have been saying that my whole life. >> [ laughter ] [ inaudible ]

>> we are done. >> i don't think we know how to cover men's views on abortion. i have met men who have shown me pictures of their grandbabies with tears in their eyes, and i said so beautiful. he said all i can think of is if something happened to my daughter. and we don't cover it very well as journalists. i don't think pollsters have the first clue about how to ask the men about that, and i think it is totally invisible until tuesday night. >> it is a black box in the projections about how this is going to go. we have a lot to get to tonight. we are going to put this iowa poll and with the other good- quality polls that have come out like the nbc poll that just came out. we've got lots to get to come and stay with us. >> [ music ] >> [ music ] for people who feel limited by the unpredictability of generalized myasthenia gravis and who are anti-achr antibody positive, season to season, ultomiris is continuous symptom control,

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while the new shocker results iowa poll from ann selzer has been blowing up everyone's newsfeeds and for good reason, it is just one poll, and we should put it in the context of what is going on more broadly in the polling as we are getting to the final polling before election day, including the big new poll from nbc news today. it is a tie, 49 for harris, 49 for trumpet even as the nbc poll shows a national deadlock. there are a couple of internal members that the pro-harris side is latching onto, for one, black voters in the nbc poll support harassed by a margin of 87%-9%. in context, that is a three point a larger margin with black voters than biden won in 2020. even though so much a recent conversation about this

campaign has centered on harris supposedly having a slipping standing with black voters, in nbc poll, she is doing better with black voters than biden did. the nbc poll also shows a huge gender gap. women supporting harris by 16, meant supporting trump by 18. perhaps that is not surprising. on issues, or is having a 20 point lead over trump on the issue of abortion in nbc poll, but there is a lot more here. this is just part of the polling landscape as we do get our final up for actual boats start to come in from actual voters on tuesday. let's bring in our friend, steve kornacki, who was made for this, and was standing by at the big board with so much energy and stamina to spare. steve, we are looking at you at the top of a mountain right now, my friend. >> here we go, rachel. when it comes to the polling right now, i think the safest thing to say is there are some extremely mixed signals that are coming in pretty just talked about iowa, obviously, it's state that donald trump

won by nearly 10 points in the last two elections. now, having harris slightly ahead, that comes as this national poll shows a donald trump frankly in a better position nationally then he finished in 2020 or 2016, and frankly then he pulled in either one of those elections, too. other national polls have it very much in this range, a tight race maybe harassed by one or two, trumped by one or two, and that leaves open a lot of different questions about what is going on in the different battleground states, and perhaps outside of the battleground states. looking inside our nbc poll here, there's a question of enthusiasm, which always gets to the variable of turnout here. these are folks from a poll who rate themselves with the highest level of interest in this election. it is at 77% in our poll. that is down a little bit from 2020. we had historic high turnout in 2020, 160 million voters. this number, too, you look inside the lowest levels of noninterest, coming from nonwhite voters, latino voters and black voters.

two ways to do that. you're talking about core democratic state constituencies that could take away from overall margins with those groups. it can also be trouble for donald trump, though, because polling has shown previously him expanding support with nonwhite voters. if he is starting to lose those voters to lack of interest, that could be trouble for his campaign. then you take a look at the issues. it really the climate we are seeing here is what we have seen the whole election. harris is best advantage by far on the issue of abortion, 20 points over trump on that. trump with the advantage on inflation and cost of living. the biggest trump advantages the border and immigration, which you don't see here. the gender gap, you talked about this one, but to put this in context, trumpet leading by 18 points with men, or is leading by 16 with women. if that is what you get, something like that, that is a gender gap of 34 points. the previous high in history was 24 point so this would absolutely shatter any historical record when it comes

to the gender gap. then there is this interesting issue of you have got an incumbent administration harris is a part of. joe biden's final approval rating in our poll is going to clock in at 41%. and obviously, that low approval rating is one of the reasons they were democrats who were anxious to get biden out of this race earlier this year. harris is part of that administration, how much is that weighing her down here question mark and trump himself, the approval rating for a former president seeking to become a future president, in our final poll here, when we asked people, thinking back, due now approve or disapprove of the job donald trump did as president, he is up to 48%, notably higher than biden, and this is higher than any reading we have ever got in and the nbc poll when donald trump was president. after leaving office, it has gone up a little bit for him. will that be enough to put him over the top? we talk about the difference between early election day voting, the disparity, we are finding that democrats, you can

expect when early vote gets reported out, especially the mail and vote on tuesday night, should be some democratic advantages. election day but becomes a question of how much of a republican advantage when the people who vote on election day, their votes start to get tabulated. now we get away from the national poll to the battlegrounds. this is our running average, we have been keeping this the entire summer and fall of the quality polls and all the battleground states. a couple things jump out here. obviously, they're all close. you don't see a margin here of greater than 1.9 points. you do see a bit of a north- south divide. we have seen this lately in the polling. trump leads here very small, but arizona, georgia, north carolina, basically sunbelt states. paris is his best performance is in wisconsin, 1.4.1.8 in michigan. these are the northern tier states. so, a bit of a north-south divide. and if that holds, is that cement, that is ultimately good news for harris, because michigan plus pennsylvania plus

wisconsin, if there are no surprises outside of the battleground, would for harris equal 270 electoral votes. if action is really limited to the battleground, donald trump has to win one of those three northern tier battleground states where our averages continue to show harris with slight, slight leads in those states, but that gets to the question, if there are no surprises outside of the court seven battleground states that we have talked over and over about, and that is what the des moines register poll really gets to. it is a question of what is happening in iowa itself, because obviously, you talked to ann selzer right there, one of the questions is does this spell over to other states, does this reflect something if this is what's happening in iowa, that might be happening in other states, maybe states we haven't been talking about, maybe some of the other battleground states. so, a couple ways to look at this. one, i think you were talking about this, but the issue of

abortion exceptionally potent in iowa, because that six-week band went into effect this summer. millions of dollars in spending, not in the presidential race, but congressional races where abortion has been a driving issue. is this more of a state specific effect that is limited more tiawah, if this is what is happening in iowa. this is going to start lighting up on tuesday with our results. iowa on tuesday, i just want to show you the history here, going back, remember, this is an obama-trump state. it is one of the most dramatic swings from obama to trump. a lot of voters were comfortable voting democratic, huge blue-collar, white population here that swung very hard to trump. there are more obama-trump counties in iowa than any other state in the country. i raise that because what status number two? that would be iowa's political cousin right across the mississippi river, wisconsin. this has the second most obama- trump counties in the country,

and demographically, these are extremely similar states, large white populations, a lot of blue-collar, rural white populations. even when you get into the mississippi area, you can go back and find german dissent is very common among people. very common demographic features and politically similar movement here. we have not, for the most part, seen in wisconsin the kind of polling shift we just saw in that new iowa poll today, so that is one thing to keep in mind. if it could potentially be a statement said -- specific thing. but if it is not, if it is going over, this is a place you would expect to see ed on tuesday night. and then there's the question of, so much of the polling attention, the budgets for polling have been directed to the seven battleground states. is there actually something going on in iowa. was there something going on this whole time that was undetected and cannot be happening elsewhere. the early testing want to pay

attention to on 7:00 tuesday night, a lot of the polls are going to close in new hampshire. this was a state not in the battleground. the trump folks think this thing is a lot closer than most people are talking about. they said jd vance there today, and in 2016, clinton won new hampshire over trump. of all of the clinton states, none was closer than new hampshire, the margin was just 3000 votes between those candidates. this was an early test for me on tuesday night. we potentially misunderstood the non-battleground states, if we are seeing some kind of surprising new hampshire, i think that will obviously be a huge development. it's interesting in terms of trust decision to spend some last-minute campaign time in virginia, raising the question as to whether or not they think that is on the map as well. steve kornacki, just the beginning of what is going to be a beautiful relationship over these next many hours. steve, we will get back to you later tonight. up next, we will be speaking with david, the architect of barack obama's two winning campaigns in 2008 and 2012, he

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>> and make no mistake, we will win. we will win. we will win. we will win. and we will win. we will win. we will win.

and we will win. >> [ cheers and applause ] >> in the closing days and hours of the campaign, that phrase, we will win, has become a newly energized theme of kamala harris's stump speech. does the harris campaign have fact-based, data-driven reasons to feel that optimistic in these final days of the race? we have exactly the person to ask. joining us now is harris campaign senior adviser, david. it is great to have you here, we know you have stuff to do. by any chance, have you guys gotten any internal polling in iowa? how do you feel about that? >> well, i have the deepest respect for ann selzer, but i think at the end of the day , the question is is she catching something from a composition of the electorate and maybe a support score, meaning our women in particular are going to perform better for us than even our own internal data? so, our data suggests a razor

thin, close race in seven states where we really have to have a great election day. but late deciders in our data are choosing kamala harris. i want to suggest by 90-10, but in a close race, if they are choosing you 55-45 or 60-40, that is a great thing. >> is there anything that you are seeing that suggests that the laserlike focus on those seven states has been too tight and there ought to be other states that are in play. we have seen jd vance going to new hampshire, trump going to virginia, we are seeing this crazy poll out of iowa that is good news for you guys, do you think the seven states are the seven states? >> yeah, because you can't chase your 350th electoral vote. one of these is going to be the tipping point statement and trump, i think himself, is going to states that are not battleground states, because he is not trying to good crowds in the battleground states, that bothers him.

i'm surprised they're sending vance, because i think he is probably a little more sane about things, but trump is gallivanting around, because you see there are empty seats, people leaving, that seems a little stale. >> when you talk about how razor thin the margins are, everything matters, right? i wonder how you are thinking about some of these ballot referenda, given the fact that abortion seems to be moving people, women, older women, in iowa and elsewhere, there are two ballot initiatives in state that really matter. i mean, they all matter, but in arizona, where according to our nbc news polling, trump has a 1.9% lead, that is his largest lead, there is a ballot referenda to establish a fundamental right to abortion, and in nevada, where harris has her tightest lead, 3.4%, there is a ballot measure for a state constitutional [ inaudible ] that is going to be on the ballot. how are you guys thinking of

those ballot initiatives as may be affecting turnout, maybe helping your candidate, how do you calculate that? >> i think in arizona, it is clear that that ballot initiative is going to win and strongly. so, there is a huge pool of voters that currently it might not be voting for kamala harris, who are going to vote for that initiative, so we are trying to talk to them. there is no doubt that abortion is going to drive a lot of vote in the streets, and women's healthcare generally, i think that has been overlooked, because some polls suggested it might be fading, but in our research, it is going to drive participation, volunteerism, it already is, and turnout and ultimate vote. so, you look at arizona, that could pass by 15, 20 points, so it gives us a lot of voters to go talk to who might currently not be voting for kamala harris. and by the way, arizona is going to be very close. i know police say 1.9, but we really have closed well in the early vote there.

arizona is in a kind of era where they have close races like georgia. and that's what i think we are going to see again on tuesday. >> a good to see you, david, you have a big job. you could have been anywhere in the world tonight, but you're here with us, we appreciate that. and we just saw steve walk through numbers where the recall memory approval of donald trump, the idea of his presidency is higher than the actual american public ever felt about his presidency during it. when you look at that and this idea that his old ceiling of 46 is being projected in polls at 48, 49, do you see that, that you have a path to win if he is at 48? >> right, well, we have always believed that the ceiling was going to be a little bit higher this time, so 48, 40 1/2%, that is not 50. and we have always believed we

have a better ability to get to 50. and we are closing well. that matters in a presidential campaign. i can't overstate how important it is. it helps with turnout, but also for those four to 5% of people who have not decided who to vote, if you are closing well, you're going to win more of them, and when a race might be 48-48 a week out and you are winning more of those late deciders, that's how you get to 50. the other thing i would say, the last seven days of this presidential campaign, no one has closed this poorly in my view, presidential campaign history. he is reminding every voter who has concerns about him why they should have concerns, and we are picking that up in our both qualitative and quantitative research. >> david, we have questions for you on that at that point, can you stick with us?

we will be right back with david, senior adviser to the harris campaign. we will be right back. l be rig.

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(luke) people love how the new homes-dot-com helps them get quick answers about any propertyr clean. by connecting them to the actual listing agent. (agent) i'm getting great exposure. (marci) speaking of exposure, could we get him a hat? (luke) ooo, what about a beret? (vo) homes-dot-com. we've done your home work. (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) start your day with nature made. and try new zero sugar gummies. we are back with harris campaign and senior adviser david. i have two questions for you. puerto rico is garbage, general john kelly is a fascist, losers and suckers.

i hear anecdotally that people have heard those two stories. what impact, if any, do you hear? >> they have had a big impact, this is part of how he has closed so poorly. it is his closing event, almost like a presidential campaign announcement speech, it should be flawless, and it was the opposite of that. it has caused a huge problem with voters because they say this is what i worry about. this is all voters, and obviously, the puerto rican community is a huge constituency in pennsylvania and other battleground states, and we have seen a huge energy there. we could see a switch of 10, 20% there. and i think the kelly comments are part of what has been a problem for trump this whole time but we have tried to make this argument, this is even more dangerous than the first time. he is more unstable, he is more unhinged, he wants unchecked power, and the people who tried to stop him last time, none of them are around. it is marjorie taylor greene, matt gaetz, laura. so, the kelly comments, i think

basically added to people's concern, which is so important. when we were all asked about his approval rating, there are some people who give him approval of his first term who still aren't going to vote for him, because they think this is just too dangerous. so, those have been two major impacts. even today, we have all breaking news on our fun of him, two days out from a presidential election, saying he wished he had never left. wished he had a sit in in the oval office. and for these voters that still haven't decided, that is the exact kind of character and behavior that they don't want a rerun of. >> so, i have a question about the cannibalization of the vote. we know that donald trump previously described early vote as inherently fraudulent. early voting is bad, you must vote on election day, it is only valid way to vote. they have obviously changed that in this race, they have decided to push their voters to vote early and that has happened all across the country, huge early vote

numbers for republicans. how much of that vote do they believe is cannibalizing for election day? >> a huge percentage of it. to be clear, if someone was definitely going to vote on election day, there is some value, at least you get the vote in the bank and they are freed up to volunteer and it diminishes the number of voters you as a campaign have to go to on election day, but it is not additive. what we are seeing as they are bringing forward their vote, and we have always believed that donald trump's ceiling was a little bit higher, but lower than ours, we always believed he was going to have to do a pretty tremendous job of bringing out sporadic and new voters who are going to support him, and we don't see evidence of that. >> and that elon musk with no seatbelts in the backs of bands can do it for him. >> it can give you a half a point or a point, and you have seen the numbers we have put out. what happened this weekend in all seven battleground states, we are hitting every door we

need to hit, and in the places where you are still doing persuasion, we are not running into trump or musk people. >> harris campaign senior adviser david, don't go to sleep, go back to work, we will see you soon. >> never. coming up, we will take a look inside the heavily fortified tabulation center in phoenix, arizona were ballots right now are being prepped for counting. we will also be introducing a brand-new n0 contributor who you will very much want to meet, stay with us. >> [ music ] >> reporter: it's time to feed the dogs real food in the right amount. a healthy weight can help dogs live

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c1 welcome back to our special coverage of election eve eve. we're super happy to have you with us. we're hunkered down here at msnbc new york. we're going to continue bring you coverage of the presidential election. we will not tire, we are not afraid. tomorrow you should expect wall to wall coverage of the entire event. we're going to have all your regularly scheduled hosts including i'll be here at 9:00

eastern on tuesday. that's election day. our special coverage starts at 6:00 p.m. eastern before polls start to close and we start to get our first results. we expect a long long night. as the counting continuing across the country. particularly in the swing state of arizona. where most ballots are cast by mail. in maricopa county which is the most populous county in arizona. there are so many races on the ballot on this particular election that the ballot is two pages long. which means it will take that much longer to tabulate the vote. while the whole country watches and waits. also in maricopa county the share is a 6-foot barb wire fence. officials placing panic buttons, drones and rooftop

snipers truly preparing for the worse. liz is inside the election center behind her election officials are doing what they call adjudication of the ballots which they're checking for any problems before the ballots are processed for tabulation. hráeuz, tell us what's going on. >> we made it inside. it took a lot of layers of activity. we're looking inside the ballot processing center right now. and what's happening right here is, what two pairs of election workers one republican, one democrat. they work together to go over any ballot irregularities. they come to a consensus. they become friends through this process. it's a nice snapshot of america. they're counting these ballots. is anyone around the world right now can watch on a livestream what is happening in this room. in fact, since 2020, they have

added more cameras and live streams so you can watch literally the step by step process of how it works. all of that in this effort for transparency here to try to counter any more claims of election fraud heading into tuesday knowing that it could take days to getting to the results. just adding this fortress. two layers of concrete, multiple steps to come inside, show your idea. this is where we enter and there's these magnetic security areas that you have to go through. they have the sheriff's department going through the bag. election officials have spent $10 million over the past four years to make this place what they're calling racial the safest place to be in arizona on election night. >> liz, in terms of the officials that you're talking to the security folks. the people who are there doing the work that needs to be done.

what's the moral like. what are people's attitude like. it's a little bit unnerving looking in from the outside and looking at what they feel they have to do for security. but they also have a job to do. it's an important job in many cases it's a very joyful job. you're doing your civic duty and something the country needs. where are people's heads at as far as how they feel about this case? >> we've been told they definitely had some long time election workers who are like i can't do it this year. they decided not to do it because of the threats they received. and others that have gotten hazard's pay. to make people come and feel they want to be here. so many of these workers received so many threats for so long. over the past years the threats have subsided but they expect them to ramp up again coming tuesday. >> liz, thank you so much.

great to have you there. thanks for talking to people there. and joy is standing with our top official. >> arizona secretary of state adrian fontez. thank you so much for being here. let's start on that question of security. we do know that back in 2020 after fox called arizona for joe biden, alex jones and others showed up at the maricopa election center. some of the people who showed up with him were jacob chansley who we later saw as some of those who sacked the capital. he's been sentenced for that. there's been a lot of drama and a lot of lies surrounding vote counts in arizona. talk about how you are thinking about the security situation going into this election. >> for, joy, thanks for having me. security has got to be top of mind for everyone but that doesn't mean we lose sight of

the fundamentals. we still have an election to run. but it is, a little bit of a new paradigm that we're existing in. so taking care of our workers, taking care of our employees. taking care of all the folks who are here for a week or a couple of days or a couple of months to help us out. also making sure our voters stay safe. all have become facets of what we've done. and so, we've got to stay focused on the fundamentals. at the end of the day we will be delivering a quality election as arizona always has done. again, in spite of the lies and conspiracies, we've done a good job in arizona and we're going to continue to make sure our people are safe. >> just on thursday, donald trump said of arizona the only thing that can stop us is the cheating. it's the only thing that can stop us. so he's already sort of setting up his you know his followers to believe there's something

fishy going on in your state. we recall that very comical but also very serious pretend audit of your state's results afterward. as secretary of the it's part of your mission to get people to trust elections, to believe them when they happen. to believe the results are real. what is the process like of trying to walk people back from this lack of trust on elections in your state? >> well first and foremost we have to understand that what we're going through over the last several years here in the united states of america is a slow rolling civics lesson. we had some folks who raised a lot of doubts, told a lot of lies. capitalized on the sort of the take it for granted attitude that americans had toward elections. we just didn't know the process that well. and through the course of answering these questions. addressing the lies and attacking the conspiracy theories we have slowly but surely brought folks into understanding these processes better and that part of it must continue. we have to continue to tell the

truth. answer the legitimate questions because some people still don't understand our process completely. and that's okay. we're happy to explain it. but when people are lying, you know particularly elected officials and candidates. when those people lie about the process knowing better because they all know better. that's the biggest problem we have. >> the lies around voting in the u.s. on the republican side tend to revolve around this lie that noncitizens are voting. arizona is a state that obviously has a large latino population. you know american born latino population. more than 2 million people have voted in arizona. you also have a lawsuit in which their demanding to see part of your voter roles to force the state to prove that noncitizens are not voting. talk a little bit about that

case and where it goes from here. >> well, first and foremost we are appealing that case because this is a public safety issue as much as anything else. we do not want a bunch of extremists out there pounding on people's doors and demanding they turn over identification just because you know somebody, at another part of the country thinks that noncitizens are voting in arizona. which by the way is very, very rare. in fact, it is vanishingly rare those sorts of things happen. first that a noncitizen might register and more rare that a vote gets cast. i'm going to acknowledge it's not a perfect season and it should. what we're doing is looking at a state in arizona where we have a bifercated system that's very different than the rest of the united states of america. in every other state of the union, a signature on an affidavit under penalty of perjury is enough to get you to vote. that's a proof of citizenship that every american gives us. in arizona however, in order to vote for all of the races outside of the federal ballot,

governor all the way through judges etc. you have to show documented proof of citizenship. but we didn't start doing that until 2004. the systems have never fully been supported by the legislature or any of the administrators. it is a very complicated way we do things issuing ballots. we don't see that any where else in the united states of america. the issue of noncitizen voting is in existence but it is vanishingly rare and no one has ever seen more than. >> and the time that it can take to count the vote which we know it has to be done. it's human beings doing it. it takes time.

i'm looking at an estimate here that says 10 to 13, 10 to 14 days for arizona to get that result in. can you confirm that that's the time line we're looking at or how long should we expect to wait to know who's definitively won arizona? >> yeah, joy you hit it on the day. 10 to 13 days is how long it's been. arizona has always been 10 to 13 days. here's the thing. when for example john mccain was winning by 25 points you could guys could call the race on the night of. so everybody thought it was over. but we were still waiting for official numbers for 10 to 14 days. now we have tighter margins. we have a much more competitive politics here in arizona so that 10 to 13 days can be awfully, awfully sort of grinding on folks when they want to know the results right now. that doesn't mean we won't get projections much much sooner. that's up to y'all in the media. that's not our job. our job is to get official

results out that are accurate and that's what we're going to do and it's going to take about 10 to 13 days. >> i will note for our audience president biden won arizona by just over 10,000 votes in 2020. that's what you should be in for everybody. calm yourselves and be ready for that. arizona secretary of state adrian fontez, thank you so much. >> i will say, arizona is lucky to have a person in that job who is as clear a communicator as he is. given the national implications of clear election related communication coming out of arizona. adrian fontez someone to watch. official results in arizona they are expecting 10 to 13 days. they say with larger margins. maybe the media companies will be able to project things earlier than that. that's not a concern. does that jive with the way

you're thinking about arizona. indeed, how should we set our expectations. >> arizona is the state. if it ends up, if it's suspenseful and if the math is consideration arizona. it's going to be that math. for the reasons you just heard in that interview. it's fairly similar in nevada too. it's a ton of mail in ballots that they do not all get counted on election night or the day after. it becomes a days long process. if the count is very close. if there's a possibility of the result changing as those days of sebs kwepbts early voting takes place. those numbers will not be called. we'll be waiting on them like last time around. in the other battleground states the five eastern battleground states a bit of a different story potentially from 2020. let's take you through tuesday night. the polls are going to close in georgia. this will be the first

battleground state where we start getting results and we expect we will get a lot of results. in georgia, they can preprocess the mail ballots. the mail in ballots. some places they have to wait until the polls close. that can all be done ahead of time in georgia. there's a ton of early in person voting which is readily easy to tabulate too. there will be places that expect for election polls to close. remember georgia is one of those days in 2020 that need to be done. just mechanically going to be much easier. it probably to tabulate those results in north carolina in georgia. go to north carolina. that's our second battleground

poll closing 7:30 eastern. very similar here. expect of the mail voting that takes place. again that's down two. the mail in voting in the absentee to come fast and furious. not long after those polls close at 7:30. the same day vote will then follow that. you expect as we showed you earlier if you were watching we expect the same day vote in north carolina and a lot of other places to favor trump, to favor the republicans. put that on your radar right now in north carolina. likely what we expect is the democrats will get their best numbers with the big early returns. and then the question becomes can trump erase that if the democrats are ahead with the same day voting. again 7:00 hour you're getting those two. i'll skip pennsylvania for one second and take you through the other two mid-states. arizona is one of the state that has had a massive change because of the clog of 2020. now they can brand new from

michigan this idea of preprocessing mail in votes. all of those votes to have the ballots counted. that's a big change from 2020. so is the fact from michigan now they have early in person voting. and tons of people looking for early mail in voting. we could have again a much clearer pictures of michigan. most of my michigan is going to close at 8:00 p.m. we will have results. no call but we will have results at the 8:00 hour a lot of them. wisconsin this could be very dramatic in the early hours of wednesday. the wee hours of wednesday. this is how it's played out a couple of elections now recently. just to explain it again. in wisconsin. they have something that resembling early in person voting but it's not technically

called that. basically, folks who are voting early in person or who are voting absentee. there are some cities in wisconsin, where they take those votes and they count them at the end of the night in one location. all of those folks get released. where that happens, as the results come in tuesday in the city of milwaukee. this usually happens two, 3:00 in the morning. maybe a earlier if it's quicker. biggest city in wisconsin. we have seen in rep cent elections. republicans leading late and having that absentee early vote release from milwaukee putting the democrats ahead. that happened with joe biden. it was the moment in 2020 when i realized biden had shifted to the advantageous position of trump. it was when trump had a 20% lead. about 4:00 in the morning that

milwaukee batch came in. and they realized biden was going to win wisconsin. pay attention to that, if it's close in wisconsin we're going to be waiting. this is going to be a significant thing. in 2020 it was pennsylvania that ultimately resulted in the election being called about 11:30 in the morning saturday. what was that? because of pennsylvania for the first time covid emergency, 2020. did vote by mail and they were flooded with vote by mail. in part because pennsylvania does not have that early in person voting. so you're either voting by mail or you're voting on election day. there's a little bit of a shift in that this year but that's the broad contour of it. the key though again, pennsylvania did not change its laws. part of the problem in 2020, all those mail in votes they had to wait on election day to start going through them. with mail in voting coming way

down this year. that's just going to be a lot less to process for these counties. they've got more experience. they've had a few elections since 2020 doing it. also there are procedure in place in some of these counties now to continue counting round the clock. not close down shop for the night. we saw that happen a bit in 2022. so the potential exists in pennsylvania to be significantly faster than 2020. but as i say, it's a huge wild card. again with no changes in these laws actually you're just kind of depending on the mechanics being smoother than having a little more experience, a little more know how. we will see in pennsylvania, obviously if we're waiting on that that's going to be a huge piece of the electoral puzzle. >> one slightly politics follow up. when you talk about the mechanics and the different procedures that have been put in place particularly ones that were put in place in 2020. are there any of these real crucial races that we're going to be watching real carefully

where they made some real inexplicable decisions new procedures or ways they're going to handle the vote that you're looking at a potential bottleneck. are there places where the way they're approaching the count that's keeping you up at night. >> there's a couple of things we're giving some concern to election officials that are being held up by court s right now that could have been wild cards. there's a procedure in north carolina about the early in person voting that might have that delay. i mean i'm talking about 15, 30 minutes there. there's a change that's good in pennsylvania. there's win in terms of public knowing what's going on in pennsylvania at midnight on election night. even if there's all these count, we will know what the universe is beyond that of mail

in votes to be counted. that was a bit of a mystery as that whole process played out. if that is what we end up seeing. we'll have a little bit of clarity even if we don't have the votes in pennsylvania. >> that's very helpful. thank you very much. a big split in polling on the issue of the economy. we have much more ahead tonight on this special coverage, stay with us. do your dry eyes still feel gritty, rough, or tired? with miebo, eyes can feel ♪ miebo ohh yeah ♪ miebo is the only prescription dry eye drop that forms a protective layer for the number one cause of dry eye: too much tear evaporation. for relief that's ♪ miebo ohh yeah ♪ remove contact lenses before using miebo. wait at least 30 minutes before putting them back in. eye redness and blurred vision may occur.

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in the final nbc news national poll, before the election on tuesday, it is a dead tie it's 49-49. part of what is moving vice president harris and her supporters is high and rising. on the issue of who voters trust on the issue of abortion, harris has a 20 point lead over trump. nbc also asked voters a couple of questions on the economy and the answers were interesting because the answers were split. when asked generically who's better on the economy, trump has a 10 point advantage over harris. on the question of who will better look out for the middle class, it's harris who comes out 51-42. a nine point spread. i want to bring into the

conversation our political insiders because it makes them sound like they're giving you secret knowledge. testifyny ruhl standing by with them. >> let's look at these numbers because not as an economist, as an insider. we know republicans traditionally poll better. trump has polled better on the economy. it's the first time asked the question who is looking out for the middle class. we see kamala harris come out ahead. what does this tell you? >> all of these numbers really tell me the advertising and the communication strategy and the strategic direction that the campaign has employed it has worked. coming out of the gate, vice president harris she, she talked about her economics message. the question that are most concerning to americans. she's speaking to them.

over and over and over telling her story. sometimes she is not for being so on message but that's actually what you're supposed to do. donald trump is not the kind of candidate i would ever want to work for many my life. it's like the man never reaches talking points. he goes like this and picks up his yellow pad, bernie is on message. if you look at the battleground states, disproportionately the adds were ie introducing her. then later on there were some trump these are these trump ads where she's distinguishing herself. contrast. people call those negative ads the attack ads. but i think it's talking about the donald trump role. do not discount the impact of people seeing those ads.

>> let's stay with introducing her. because the first couple of months we didn't know what she could run. he's a failed businessman. we talk about his bankruptcy. we don't know what he can operate. think about the last six weeks. kamala harris has run a basically flawless campaign. what is a campaign? it's a business and she's the ceo. and we are seeing donald trump day after day, week after week, not just go off message, but really come unflud. unglued. how much of a message is that happening especially with nikki haley. >> it came unglued because she was together. she had her together and he didn't expect that. that's why he pined for biden. donald trump is nothing if not sensitive to the players on the chess board. when there's a player on the chess board that he doesn't want to deal with he wants it

off the board. he wanted her off the board. which is why you look back at all those narratives, what she did to simmon's point is she hit the ground running and she had an assist. the assist was suddenly a half a million people getting on a zoom call and raising $8 million. this time it was white women. you sit and think, wait a minute white women? because white women weren't buying this female president thing, how do we know this? because they didn't elect one when they had one. >> there's another assist. the economy. >> exactly. >> what has been happening over the last six months. inflation is cooling. interest rates cut. don tphad trump was leading, donald trump was leading with the economy and the world is on

fire. it is certainly not a dumpster. >> that is not a plus for her in the beginning. all that stuff was happening and it was cooling and the numbers were getting better. everybody else was screaming look at the numbers they're so much better. the voters are like yeah but i don't know who she is. i want to know more about her. to your point simone she started that narrative story. she connected it to the economy. she started talking about an opportunity economy. she started talking about tax breaks for the middle class. she started talking about workers. she tied health care to the economy in a way that mothers looked at and said, tell me more. >> you did not lean on the economy is so good. that is i think that's the biggest difference between the campaign that joe biden was running and the campaign that kamala harris is running.

her campaign doesn't actually ever speak to the current, the current greatest if you will of the economy. joe biden did this. but her campaign speaks to the concerns people have about the work that has yet to be addressed. joe biden tells me about build back better. she's talking about the better. and that's the difference -fpt. >> tell us what you're hearing and what you're thinking. you're a bigger donor than we ever have seen. the likes of elon musk who's campaigning more and harder than any business. who may end up with an official or unofficial role in the trump administration. >> we have some billionaires in this country. if you look at the top 10 donors to donald trump. they've given over a million

dollars. >> just the top five. >> and that's not talking about what musk can do. he thinks because he can do rockets and electric cars that he can figure out how to get people to vote. but he has a hard assignment. because the people he's trying to get to vote are low propensity voters. and rogan is trying to get bro is to vote. that's why they're bros, . one of the things that's really helping her at this point is the low propensity voters, the feels voters they make up their mind at the end. it matters whether they like you. my friends i know, my

acquaintances that vote for trump they start by saying, i can't stand the guy but he's going to be good for my tax rate. right. i don't think america likes this guy. when you're in the privacy of voting booth, and you think of the things he says and does and the chaos around him. this is the other thing that she's done this campaign so beautifully. she is now the candidate that represents change. i don't think america wants another four years of that nut lying jerk in the white house. >> >> thank you so much. rachel i'm going to send it back to you. >> o'donnell, talking about this idea the campaign is closing, how voters are feeling. how that might effect low propensity voters which the trump campaign is particularly targeting how it might affect the base and turn out. and you were at saturday night

live last night for kamala harris' surprise. >> i guess i mentioned it on twitter. it goes to this, because saturday night live audience does include low propensity voters. it does include young low propensity voters. the 8h poll which i have witnessed more than once. just to say a presidential candidate in studio 8h for snl and you know i've had friends of mine working there from the beginning. frank and bailey so i've been hanging around there a long time. you know, we had the word was out there. that oh you know she's going to be there. but i know, that's never true until it's true. there's all sorts of things that could change that right up into the last minute. when we were going up on the elevator the fact it was packed with the uniformed secret service officers. the ones that look like a s.w.a.t. team with the badges. we had to get wanded by them

before going on the ninth floor over into the conference room where a lot of us watch it. with all of that anticipation; and expectation and by the time you got through the secret service, you know it's going to happen. >> right. >> what happened in that studio until 8h when the audience actually saw her? was the single biggest emotional surge that i have felt in that room ever and that includes the rolling stones in 1978 okay. it was, really something. and what i want to attribute it too. that we actually had a trump presidency. and this is the only person who is standing between you and another one of those. and so, as big as the stakes were before, when hillary clinton and others were running against this guy. this is the one where everybody in that room knows, it could

not be more important and also, i think there was this, reward that was in the air of thank you for running a flawless campaign to get to this point. which she really has done. i mean just stop and think about, when is the last time you had a democrat ramping up toward election day? and you weren't hearing all sorts of unnamed democratic congressional sources in the new york times and everywhere should have done this. should have done that last week. why aren't they in michigan. there isn't a single second guess about the way that team is running that campaign and the way the candidate is running that campaign. and last night here up in the eight floor. there was a moment where it was coming together so perfectly. because when you look at that appearance, that's the campaign

of positivity and joy and there is no swiping at donald trump in this appearance. there was none of that. you know by her, nothing snide. just a completely positive presentation of her within that stretch. it was really, really remarkable. >> and really a testimony to how good mire rudolph. having the person who are you are impersonating standing next to you. it was like a magic trick. >> i can report that backstage, the vice president got a very special dana carley version of joe biden face to face. which unfortunately there is no video of. >> that is great. >> i wasn't there, but dana told me about it afterward and it was pretty special. a special announcement to our election team. we have that and much more

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just 107 days after her entry into the 2024 presidential race. vice president kamala harris will be ending her historic campaign at a place that's central to her biography.

she's going to be hosting her campaign's election night watch party at her alma mater howard university in washington, d.c. and this of course, to us is as a news organization this is a practical importance to know. right. we need to know where very important news is going to be coming from from the campaign. whether it's a victory speech or concession speech or a hold on my opponent is about to give a fake victory speech but don't fall for it. we need to know where that is all, that's all coming from. but of course that location also just seems important. it has political significance and psychological heft. in terms of where kamala harris has decided to bring that historic political night. and joining us michelle norris. when the billionaire owner of

the washington post jeff bezos blocked the paper's editorial board from making their. she will be there for us at howard university. it is an honor to join you as a colleague. >> thank you, glad to be part of the family. >> you make us think better of ourselves that you are here among us. let me just start by asking you about that decision, howard university decision. we know you're going to be there for us on tuesday. and what you think that says about the harris campaign and how they're choosing to land it. >> it speaks to the potential historic significance of this campaign. if she is victorious. but even running as a candidate, as the first woman who has a south asian and jamaican heritage. so it speaks to that.

but it also says something about the importance of the word we in her campaign. you know she's always talked about bringing people along with her. and when you hear donald trump, so often he's talking about policy that feels like he's doing something to america instead of for america. by going to howard, she is reaching back to an important milestone and saying i'm bringing you along with me. i'm creating an american that's about unity. i'm willing to work across the aisle and although she's going to be at a historically black college you're going to see a rainbow of people. which is probably something you're not going see at donald trump's rally or have seen at any of his rallies. she's reaching into it in ways she hasn't in the campaign. she hasn't really leaned into her gender, or leaned into her blackness or her south asianness or caribbeanness. but in this case she's saying i

am all of that. and she's leaning into it. >> do you feel, i open this up to everybody. do you feel we're far enough into the campaign at this point that we know the consequences of that strategic decision by this candidate many this campaign. the stark difference between the way the hillary clinton campaign talked about gender and the importance of her candidacy. the lack of any of that discussion from kamala harris. the fact that she has not been leaning into the historic nature of her own racial background in terms of her presidency. it's been interesting to know, i think we've all seen it unfold live. are we now far enough in and getting enough data on how the polling looks and all these other things. that we know what the consequences of those decisions are. >> it's interesting. she's not leaning into it. i want to make one clarification. she's not running away from it either. she went and spoke to charlemain.

she has not i'm woman hear me roar. it's i am woman i have stuff to do. i have issues that are important for women with the ban of rowe versus wade. they're having a hard time holding on to doctors or recruiting doctors because of that abortion ban. she's saying i understand those issues. i think that it's also an indication that she just didn't have time. when you're running a sprint. normally a campaign is a marathon this was a sprint. she had to focus more on the issues and not be distracted by some of the issues around. i'm not saying that race and gender are a distraction but it was sometimes used to try to pull her off her message and she stayed on message. >> can i ask you michelle, because i think we talk a lot about. i think the media gets captivated every four years by this narrative. any minute now the black men

are running to the republican party. the thing you don't talk about. we don't ever talk about white voters that much. it's been interesting to me that one of the stories that really hasn't been told is the fact that a black and southeast asian woman is polling at 49 and 50% in the united states of america. in these unites stated which means she is winning a significant share of white voters at the obama level. and she's done something that hillary clinton couldn't do, and that's get women to talk. we feel it in the iowa poll. at least that's what they're telling pollsters, no rowe changed their mind. what do you think. >> i think it's the fact that she understood what was going

to be important. she was ready with that message. but she's also talking about kitchen table issues she's talking about, when she talked about that credit for people who are taking care of elderly, that's a universal issue. and especially at a moment where baby boomers are marching beyond middle age. that's something that hits a lot of people. and i think what we may see also is that she picked up a lot of white young voters. you know, even while the trump campaign was working very hard particularly to go after young white men. a lot of people get close to that and it's almost like, when you're at the carnival and you're article to ride those rickety rides and you see that sign that says, ride at your own risk. and as you get closer you think, i don't know if i want to do that. she's talking to people about the america you want to live in. and i think the polls show that. >> under scoring the point of

what we talked about tonight about how the closing message for people who are deciding at the very end both who they're going to vote for and importantly whether to vote. that risk factor that you're describing may be everything. we're honored to have you among us. >> great to be here. >> we'll be right back, stay with us. woah, limu! we're in a parade. everyone customize and save hundreds on car insurance with liberty mutual. customize and sa— (balloon doug pops & deflates) and then i wake up. and you have this dream every night? yeah, every night! hmm... i see. (limu squawks) only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ when a tough cough finds you on the go, a syrup would be... silly! woo! hey! try new robitussin soft chews. packed with the power of robitussin... in every bite.

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apprehended three groups creating fraud. these videos are not authentic, are not from the fbi and the content they depict is false. a bold call to impersonate the fbi. >> i felt i was really ready for all the deep fake videos of people being like this candidate did a horrible thing to me. and it's like, oh that's a russian video. i was not ready that this was going to be the election cycle where we got fake law enforcement videos, fake fbi videos that are supposed to be the authority to whom we appeal for real information on these things. >> it's also, obviously the platform formally known as twitter is vector. who is in the hands of a guy that spent $100 million to get trump elected. >> and has been communicating with putin since 2022. can you imagine another major ceo having communication with a foreign adversary and we would

be like, i guess that's life. >> he's leading a war against one of our key allies. and the journal also reported that putin has been talking to the guy who is running russian interference effort in this presidential election. >> you need guidance to do that. >> that's right. >> we'll be right back, stay with us. that cough looks pretty bad. try this robitussin honey. the real honey you love, plus the powerful cough relief you need. mind if i root through your trash? robitussin, with real honey & elderberry.

so in case you haven't heard, tomorrow is the last full day of the 2024 presidential campaign. trump has four rallies scheduled tomorrow ending the day with a rally in grand rapids. kamala harris will spend the day in pennsylvania. rallies in allen town, philly, pittsburgh. for us here we're going to have a full day of coverage and a full day and night of our reports.